Category Archives: Ukraine

ISW is closely tracking developments in and around Ukraine.Click here to see a full list of ISW's Ukraine Conflict Updates. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing these daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine. These Ukraine Conflict Updates replaced ISWs previous Indicators and Thresholds for Russian Military Operations in Ukraine and/or Belarus, which we maintained from November 12, 2021, through February 17, 2022. That document is no longer updated.

Russia has destabilized Ukraine and sought to return it to the Russian orbit for years and may now seek to do so through force. ISWs Russia team predicted and then exposed Russias effort to integrate Belarus into the Russian military in 2020 and 2021. Now, over a hundred thousand Russian troops are massed on Ukraines borders, including in Belarus, where they could support a third front in a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.

In the winter of 2021-2022, ISW and CTP launched a forecast series in response to the Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border. The reports in this series are listed below.

Click here to read Part 3:Putins Likely Course of Action in Ukraine - Updated Course of Action Assessment

January 27, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the crisis he created by mobilizing a large military force around Ukraine to achieve two major objectives: first, advancing and possibly completing his efforts to regain effective control of Ukraine itself, and second, fragmenting and neutralizing the NATO alliance. Russian military preparations can support a massive invasion of Ukraine from the north, east, and south that could give Putin physical control of Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities, allowing him to dictate terms that would accomplish the first objective. Such an invasion, however, might undermine his efforts to achieve the second objective because it could rally the NATO alliance around the need to respond to such a dramatic act of aggression. An invasion would also entail significant risks and definite high costs. A Russian military action centered around limited military operations in southern and southeastern Ukraine coupled with a brief but widespread and intense air and missile campaign could better position Putin to achieve both aims as well as reduce the likely costs and risks to Russia.

Click here to read Part 2: Putin's MIlitary Options

December 11, 2021

Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a military force on and near Ukraines borders large enough to conduct a full-scale invasion. Western intelligence agencies have reportedly intercepted Russian military plans to do so by early February. Visible Russian military activities and these plans so clearly support preparations for an invasion that it seems obvious that Putin really might invade if his demands are not met.

Putin is rarely so obvious, however, and a massive Russian invasion of Ukraine would mark a fundamental transformation of the approach he has taken for two decades to advance his interests and respond to threats. We cannot dismiss the possibility that such a transformation has occurred. The United States, NATO, and Ukraine must seriously consider the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and prepare military, diplomatic, and economic measures to deter and respond to that threat.

Click here to read Part 1: Putin's Likely Course of Action in Ukraine

December 10, 2021

Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a large force near the Ukrainian border and reportedly has a military plan to invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine. Western leaders are rightly taking the threat of such an invasion very seriously, and we cannot dismiss the possibility that Putin will order his military to execute it. However, the close look at what such an invasion would entail presented in this report and the risks and costs Putin would have to accept in ordering it leads us to forecast that he is very unlikely to launch an invasion of unoccupied Ukraine this winter. Putin is much more likely to send Russian forces into Belarus and possibly overtly into Russian-occupied Donbas. He might launch a limited incursion into unoccupied southeastern Ukraine that falls short of a full-scale invasion.

A full-scale Russian invasion of unoccupied Ukraine would be by far the largest, boldest, and riskiest military operation Moscow has launched since the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. It would be far more complex than the US wars against Iraq in 1991 or 2003. It would be a marked departure from the approaches Putin has relied on since 2015, and a major step-change in his willingness to use Russian conventional military power overtly. It would cost Russia enormous sums of money and likely many thousands of casualties and destroyed vehicles and aircraft. Even in victory, such an invasion would impose on Russian President Vladimir Putin the requirement to reconstruct Ukraine and then establish a new government and security forces there more suitable for his objectives.

Click here to read ISW and the Critical Threat Project's reports on the Russian military buildup near and potential invasion of Ukraine. These reports unpack Putin's likely calculations and use them to forecast his strategy. They provide critical insight for US and Western leaders and policymakers.

Click here to read ISW's running assessment of Russia's military activity near Belarus and Ukraine.This document is regularly updated.

Click here to see a list of ISW's Belarus updates. Launched near-daily in late 2020 and early 2021, these reports provide moment-to-moment insight into Russia's efforts to integrate the Belarusian military and subordinate the Belarusian state.

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Ukraine Crisis Coverage | Institute for the Study of War

Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy says Ukrainians are creating their own miracle in Christmas Eve address  The Guardian

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Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy says Ukrainians are creating their own miracle in Christmas Eve address - The Guardian

Russia-Ukraine war: Russia accused of demolishing Mariupol theatre to hide war crimes as it happened  The Guardian

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Russia-Ukraine war: Russia accused of demolishing Mariupol theatre to hide war crimes as it happened - The Guardian

U.S. to expand combat training for Ukrainian troops

US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, US Defence Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, Lloyd Austin and Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov on October 12, 2022 in Brussels, Belgium. The North Atlantic Council (NAC) at the level of Defence Ministers convene at the NATO headquarters in Brussels for a two-day summit as the war in Ukraine continues into a seventh month.

Omar Havana | Getty Images

The Pentagon will expand military combat training for Ukrainian forces, using the slower winter months to instruct larger units in more complex battle skills, U.S. officials said.

The U.S. has already trained about 3,100 Ukrainian troops on how to use and maintain certain weapons and other equipment, including howitzers, armored vehicles and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS. But senior military leaders for months have discussed expanding that training, touting the need to improve the ability of Ukraine's company- and battalion-sized units to move and coordinate attacks across the battlefield.

A battalion can include as many as 800 troops; a company is much smaller, with a couple hundred forces.

According to officials, the training will take place at the Grafenwoehr training area in Germany. And the aim is to use the winter months to hone the skills of the Ukrainian forces so they will be better prepared to counter any spike in Russian attacks or efforts to expand Russia's territorial gains.

Associated Press

European Council President Charles Michel and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal attend a news briefing, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Odesa, Ukraine May 9, 2022.

Ukrainian Governmental Press Service | Reuters

The European Union said it approved a new package of sanctions aimed at ramping up pressure on Russia for its war in Ukraine.

The package, whose details have not been revealed, was approved after days of deliberations during a meeting of the 27-nation bloc's ambassadors.

The Czech Republic, which holds the rotating presidency of the EU Council, said the package will be confirmed by written procedure on Friday. Details will then be published in the bloc's legal records.

The European Commission, the EU's executive branch, last week proposed travel bans and asset freezes on almost 200 more Russian officials and military officers as part of the new round of measures.

The targets of the latest recommended sanctions included government ministers, lawmakers, regional governors and political parties.

Associated Press

The Malta flagged bulk carrier Zante en-route to Belgium transits the Bosphorus carrying 47,270 metric tons of rapeseed from Ukraine after being held at the entrance of the Bosphorus due to Russia pulling out of the Black Sea Grain agreement on November 02, 2022 in Istanbul, Turkey.

Chris Mcgrath | Getty Images

Four ships carrying wheat and vegetable oil have left ports in Ukraine, the organization managing agricultural exports from the country said.

The ships are destined for India and Turkey.

TheBlack Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations, saw three key Ukrainian ports reopen after a Russian naval blockade stopped exports for months. More than 13.9 million tons of grain and other products have left Ukraine since the agreement took effect.

The deal among the signatories is set to expire in about three months.

Amanda Macias

Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths speaks during an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine December 15, 2022.

Stringer | Reuters

United Nations aid chief Martin Griffiths said it was unlikely the Black Sea grain deal would be expanded in the near term to include more Ukrainian ports or reduce inspection times.

Kyiv has called for an expansion of the deal with Moscow which was mediated by the United Nations and Turkey and allows Ukraine, a major global grain exporter, to ship food products from three of its Black Sea ports despite Russia's invasion.

"I don't see that happening in the next, near term," the U.N. under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator told Reuters in an interview in the Ukrainian capital.

"I think it would be great if it could be expanded, the more grain that gets out into the world, the better clearly from our point of view, from the world's point of view. But I don't think that's immediately likely."

Reuters

Ukrainians take shelter from Russian attacks in Bakhmut, Ukraine.

Ukrainian civilians cross a bridge in Bakhmut, Ukraine on December 15, 2022.

Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Ukrainians take shelter from shelling in a basement in Bakhmut, Ukraine on December 15, 2022.

Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Ukrainians take shelter from shelling in a basement in Bakhmut, Ukraine on December 15, 2022.

Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

A Ukrainian man prepares wood for winter as civilians take shelter from shelling in a basement in Bakhmut, Ukraine on December 15, 2022.

Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Ukrainians take shelter from shelling in a basement in Bakhmut, Ukraine on December 15, 2022.

Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Clients of the Russian bank VTB gather at its head office to meet with the bank's representatives and demand to reimburse their investments, lost due to the recent western sanctions imposed on Russia, in Moscow, Russia July 22, 2022.

Evgenia Novozhenina | Reuters

The U.S. Treasury Department announced it has sanctioned a bank owned by a Russian billionaire, along with 17 subsidiaries of Russia's second-largest bank VTB.

The department made the move in tandem with designations the State Department issued against a prominent Russian oligarch, his associates and over 40 others linked to the Russian government. The efforts aim to limit Russian President Vladimir Putin's ability to fund Moscow's war with Ukraine.

Access to all properties and interests on U.S. soil owned by any of the sanctioned has been blocked.

Chelsey Cox

Ukrainian military experts show downed drones that Russia allegedly uses for striking critical infrastructure and other targets in Ukraine during a press conference in Kyiv.

Military personnel show the fragments of unmanned aerial vehicles used by the Russian Federation against Ukraine to journalists during a press conference of the Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces at the Military Media Center in Kyiv, Ukraine, on December 15, 2022.

Vladimir Shtanko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Colonel Oleksandr Zaruba, representative of the Research Center for Trophy and Prospective Weapons and Military Equipment speaks during a press conference of the Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces at the Military Media Center in Kyiv, Ukraine, on December 15, 2022.

Vladimir Shtanko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Military personnel show the fragments of unmanned aerial vehicles used by the Russian Federation against Ukraine to journalists during a press conference of the Ukraine's Security and Defense Forces at the Military Media Center in Kyiv, Ukraine, on December 15, 2022.

Vladimir Shtanko | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Ukraine said on Wednesday it had shot down more than a dozen drones in Moscow's latest assault on Kyiv.

A view of an administrative building destroyed by a Russian kamikaze drone attack is seen in Kyiv, Ukraine 14 December 2022.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

A municipal worker walks at the site of a Russian kamikaze drone attack in Kyiv, Ukraine 14 December 2022. The air defense forces have already shot down 13 kamikaze drones over Kyiv, as Head of the Kyiv City Military Administration Serhii Popko posted on Telegram.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink cheered the release of a U.S. citizen from Russian detention following another prisoner swap between Moscow and Kyiv.

"Great to see a U.S. citizen freed from Russia-controlled territory," Brink wrote on Twitter.

"Thanks toAndriy Yermakand our Ukrainian partners for their continued efforts to secure the freedom of U.S. citizens held by Russia's forces," she continued.

Sixty-four Ukrainian soldiers, who were captured in the Russian-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, and the U.S. citizen Suedi Murekezi were included in the exchange, Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian president's office, said on Telegram on Wednesday.

Amanda Macias

Ukrainian servicemen ride a tank on a road in eastern Ukraine on November 24, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images

Russia is digging in for a long war in Ukraine and still wants to conquer the entire country, a senior Ukrainian military official said.

Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov told a military briefing that although he did not expect Moscow to launch an attack from Belarus, Russian was training new troops on its neighbor's soil and had moved military aircraft there.

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar, at the same briefing, warned against allowing complacency to set in after recent Russian military setbacks.

Ukrainian officials have portrayed the Kremlin as desperate to reverse recent military setbacks - which included a retreat from the southern city of Kherson after months of occupation - and secure victories to justify the war to the Russian public.

The Kremlin has never fully defined the goals of its Feb. 24 invasion, which it said was partly intended to protect Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine.

Reuters

Ships, including those carrying grain from Ukraine and awaiting inspections, are seen anchored off the Istanbul coastline on November 02, 2022 in Istanbul, Turkey.

Chris Mcgrath | Getty Images

The organization in charge of exporting Ukrainian crops said 92 ships are waiting to be loaded with cargo.

Sixty-eight loaded vessels are also awaiting inspection in Turkish territorial waters, the U.N.-led Joint Coordination Center said.

TheBlack Sea Grain Initiative, a deal brokered in July among Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the United Nations, led to the reopening of three key Ukrainian ports after a Russian naval blockade stopped exports for months.

Since the agreement went into effect, more than 550 ships carrying 13.9 million metric tons of grain and other agricultural products have departed for destinations around the globe.

Kyiv has contended Moscow has held up inspections and delayed ship departures.

Amanda Macias

Thu, Dec 15 202210:25 AM EST

A photograph taken on October 31, 2022 shows a cargo ship loaded with grain being inspected in the anchorage area of the southern entrance to the Bosphorus in Istanbul.

Ozan Kose | AFP | Getty Images

A senior U.N. official voiced optimism that there would be a breakthrough in negotiations to ease exports of Russian fertilizers to avoid food shortages next year.

Russia has complained its concerns about fertilizer exports had not been addressed when a deal for extending a Black Sea grain export agreement was agreed in November.

Low Russian fertilizer exports remained a "major concern" to avoid food shortages next year, said the Secretary-General of the U.N. Conference on Trade and Development, Rebeca Grynspan, a key U.N. negotiator.

"I am cautiously optimistic that we can have important progress soon," she told reporters in Geneva. "We will spare no effort in trying to make this happen as we really think it is essential for avoiding a food security crisis in the world."

She declined to give further details.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyyhas indicated that he would only back the reopening of Russian ammonia exports, used to make fertilizer, in exchange for a prisoner swap and negotiationshave since focused on this.

Reuters

Thu, Dec 15 20229:36 AM EST

Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska thanked France for its "solidarity" with the Ukrainian people as Russia's war enters its eleventh month.

Zelenska went to France on Sunday. She led a Ukrainian delegation that included Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

During her visit, Zelenska met with Ukrainian families who have taken temporary resident status in France.

Amanda Macias

Thu, Dec 15 20229:06 AM EST

A soldier receives treatment at a medical stabilization point, located 6km from frontline and in Bakhmut, Ukraine on October 25, 2022. It is first place in the chain of treatments where all military personnel is treated before being moved to any other hospitals.

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Doctors shed their scrubs for street clothes. And one by one,the staff of the largest hospitalin the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine slipped away as Russian forces seized control of the city's center.

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Ukraine war live updates: Latest news on Russia and the war in Ukraine

Takeaway from Berlin Ukraine recovery conference: Donor coordination for Ukraine is coming but not here yet  Brookings Institution

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Takeaway from Berlin Ukraine recovery conference: Donor coordination for Ukraine is coming but not here yet - Brookings Institution

STORY: Russian missiles pounded critical infrastructure across Ukraine on Saturday, causing blackouts in several regions.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Saturday that Russia had launched strikes on infrastructure on a "very wide" scale and pledged that his military would improve on an already good record of downing missiles with help from its partners.

He said Ukrainian forces had shot down more than 30 missiles and drones Saturday, and asked citizens to conserve electricity.

Russia has carried out a series of devastating attacks on Ukraine's power infrastructure over the last two weeks, striking up to 40% of the entire system.

Shortly after daybreak on Saturday, local officials in regions across Ukraine began reporting strikes on energy facilities and power outages as engineers scrambled to restore the network.

A presidential adviser said more than a million people across Ukraine were without power Saturday afternoon.

Moscow has acknowledged targeting energy infrastructure but denies targeting civilians.

At the same time Russian occupation authorities in the Ukrainian city of Kherson urged civilians to leave immediately, citing what they called a tense military situation as Ukraine's forces advance.

Thousands have left in recent days after warnings of a looming Ukrainian offensive to recapture the city.

See the article here:

Russian missiles pound Ukraine as thousands flee Kherson

Even as another seventy-two systems arrivedalong with dozens of NATO-compatible howitzers from France and GermanyUkrainian generals estimated that Russian artillery pieces outnumbered Ukraines by seven to one; each day, Russian forces were shooting some twenty thousand shells, pummelling cities such as Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Zelensky said that, in June, as many as a hundred Ukrainian soldiers were being killed every day. It was the most difficult moment in the war for Ukraine, with Russiafitfully and at great cost to its own forcesblasting through Ukrainian defenses and capturing territory one metre at a time.

Washington encouraged Ukraine to rely on judicious planning and the efficiency of Western weaponry rather than try to outshoot the Russian military. NATO had chosen a similar strategy in the latter stages of the Cold War, when it found itself with far fewer tanks and artillery than the Soviet Union. We told the Ukrainians if they try and fight like the Russians, they will lose, the senior Defense Department official said. Our mission was to help Ukraine compensate for quantitative inferiority with qualitative superiority.

Ukraine has a fleet of reconnaissance drones and a loose network of human sources within areas controlled by the Russian military, but its ability to gather intelligence on the battlefield greatly diminishes about fifteen miles beyond the front line. U.S. spy satellites, meanwhile, can capture snapshots of troop positions anywhere on earth. Closer to the ground, U.S. military spy planes, flying along the borders, augment the picture, and intelligence intercepts can allow analysts to listen in on communications between Russian commanders. Since the invasion, the U.S. and other Western partners have shared a great deal of this information with Ukraine. Mykola Bielieskov, a defense expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, in Kyiv, said, Thats a major field where the U.S. is helping us.

One evening in April, at an intelligence-cordination center somewhere in Europe, Ukrainian military officers asked their American and NATO counterparts to confirm a set of cordinates. This had become a common practice. Ukrainian representatives might ask for verification of the location of a Russian command post or ammunition depot. We do that, fair game, the senior Biden Administration official said. In some cases, U.S. intelligence and military officers provide targeting information unsolicited: We do let them know, say, theres a battalion moving on Slovyansk from the northwest, and heres roughly where they are. But, the official emphasized, Ukrainian forces choose what to hit. We are not approving, or disapproving, targets.

The Biden Administration has also refused to provide specific intelligence on the location of high-value Russian individuals, such as generals or other senior figures. There are lines we drew in order not to be perceived as being in a direct conflict with Russia, the senior U.S. official said. The United States will pass oncordinates of a command post, for example, but not the presence of a particular commander. We are not trying to kill generals, the senior Biden Administration official said. We are trying to help the Ukrainians undermine Russian command and control.

Still, Ukraine has so far killed as many as eight generals, most of them at long range with artillery and rocket fire. The high death toll is partially a reflection of Russian military doctrine, which calls for top-down, hierarchical operations. In most cases, mid-ranking Russian officers and enlisted soldiers are not empowered to make decisions, creating a need for generals to be positioned closer to the front. They were depending on them to control and direct troops, the U.S. military official said. Its a huge operational catastrophe.

I know they should be invited to our house next, but cant we just give them the cash equivalent and call it even?

Cartoon by Teresa Burns Parkhurst

The Ukrainian request in April concerned the suspected location of the Moskva, a Russian naval cruiser and the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. Could U.S. intelligence confirm that the ship was at a certain set of cordinates south of the Ukrainian port city of Odesa? The answer came back affirmative. Soon, officials in Washington began to see press reports that the ship had suffered some sort of explosion. On April 14th, the Moskva disappeared into the Black Sea.

Kyiv said that two Ukrainian-made Neptune anti-ship missiles, fired from onshore near Odesa, had hit the Moskva a statement that was confirmed by U.S. intelligence agencies. Russia never admitted that the strike took place, instead blaming an onboard fire and stormy seas for the loss of the ship. Some forty Russian sailors are reported to have died.

After the arrival of the M777s, the Ukrainian Army increasingly shared information with the U.S. about the condition of its weaponry on the battlefield, something it had not always been eager to do. Reznikov described it as a mirror reaction to Washingtons initial approach to the war. You see they dont trust you with serious weapons, he said, so why should you trust them? But, as the U.S. and other Western powers increased their commitments, the relationship improved. According to Reznikov, When we received one package of assistance after another, and we could see there was a real desire to help, it allowed us to come to an agreement and reach a genuine dialogue. A Western diplomat in Kyiv told me, Its a common story here. You can be incredibly wary, until youre not. Then you become trusting and open.

When the U.S. military carries out operations with a partner force, such as a fellow NATO member state, it cordinates battle movements on a common operational picture, or COP, a single digitized display showing the location and composition of forces. We dont quite have that with Ukraine, the military official said. But its close. Ukrainian commanders feed information to the U.S. military, which allows for an almost real-time picture of its weaponry in Ukraine. These days we know similar information about what we have given to Ukraine as we know about equipment in our own military, the official said. How many artillery tubes are functioning, whats down for maintenance, where the necessary part is.

In May, Ukrainian artillery crews, using M777s along with some Soviet-era systems, fired on a large contingent of Russian forces that was trying to cross a pontoon bridge on the Siverskyi Donets River. Intelligence provided by the U.S. appeared to allow the Ukrainians to identify the moment of the Russian columns crossing. It was one of the single biggest losses for the Russian Army since the war began. Dozens of tanks and armored vehicles were destroyed, left charred along the rivers swampy banks, and as many as four hundred Russian soldiers were killed.

For months, Ukraine had one U.S. weapons system at the top of its wish list: the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS. Whereas the M777 can hit artillery pieces, troop formations, tanks, and armored vehicles at what is known as tactical depth, around fifteen miles, HIMARS can reach an entirely different target set: ammunition depots, logistics hubs, radar systems, and command-and-control nodes, which tend to be situated considerably farther behind enemy lines. The HIMARS system is mounted on a standard U.S. Army truck, making it able to shoot and scoot, in military parlance. Colin Kahl, the Under-Secretary of Defense for Policy, has described HIMARS as the equivalent of a precision-guided air strike, delivered from the back of a truck.

The Ukrainian military could only take advantage of the HIMARS extended range if its soldiers had intelligence on where to strike. Precision fires and intelligence are a marriage, the U.S. military official said. Its difficult to have one without the other. The dilemma for the Biden Administration was not whether to give HIMARS to Ukraine, but which munitions to send along with them. Each system can carry either a pod with six rockets, known as GMLRS, with a range of forty miles, or one surface-to-surface missile, or ATACMS, which can reach a hundred and eighty miles. Its not HIMARS that carries a risk, the Defense Department official said. But, rather, if it was equipped with long-range missiles that were used to strike deep in Russian territory.

Putin is extremely paranoid about long-range conventional-missile systems. The Kremlin is convinced, for example, that U.S. ballistic-missile defense platforms in Romania and Poland are intended for firing on Russia. Even if Ukraine agreed not to use HIMARS to carry out strikes across the border, the mere technical capability of doing so might prove provocative. We had reason to believe the ATACMS would be a bridge too far, the Defense official said.

The battlefield realities inside Ukraine were another determining factor. The imperative was What does Ukraine need? the Defense official said. Not what they are asking forwhat they need. And we do our own assessment of that. The Biden Administration asked for a list of targets that the Ukrainian military wanted to strike with HIMARS. Every single grid point was reachable with GMLRS rather than ATACMS, the Defense official said.

There was one exception: Ukraine expressed a more ambitious desire to launch missile strikes on Crimea, which Russia uses for replenishing its forces across the south and which is largely beyond the reach of GMLRS. During the war-game exercises held over the summer, when the possibility of ATACMS came up, it was clear that Ukraine wanted them to lay waste to Crimea, the Defense official said. Putin sees Crimea as much a part of Russia as St. Petersburg. So, in terms of escalation management, we have to keep that in mind.

In multiple conversations, U.S. officials were explicit that the HIMARS could not be used to hit targets across the border. The Americans said there is a very serious request that you do not use these weapons to fire on Russian territory, the Ukrainian military official said. We said right away thats absolutely no problem. Well use them only against the enemy on the territory of Ukraine. As with other weapons platforms, there is no technical mechanism to insure compliance. Officially, the U.S. has signalled that all Ukrainian territory illegally occupied by Russia since 2014not only that which it has taken since Februaryis fair game for HIMARS strikes. We havent said specifically dont strike Crimea, the Defense official told me. But then, we havent enabled them to do so, either.

We might not have any worshippers, but were still a viable intellectual property.

Cartoon by Emily Flake

The first batch of HIMARS appeared on the battlefield late in June. Within days, videos circulated of Russian equipment and munitions depots outside Donetsk exploding in clouds of fire and smoke. Reznikov announced that the military had used HIMARS to destroy dozens of similar Russian facilities. In response, the senior Biden Administration official said, Russian forces have had to adjust their tactics and maneuvers, moving command posts and munitions depots out of rangewhich also diminishes their utility in battle. They are very mindful of the presence of HIMARS, the official said.

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Inside the U.S. Effort to Arm Ukraine - The New Yorker

Russia continues 'massive, forced deportations', says think tank

Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign, according to a US-based think tank.

In its latest assessment of the conflict, the Institute for the Study of War notes that Russian officials have openly admitted to placing children from occupied areas of Ukraine up for adoption with Russian families.

It adds: Russian authorities may additionally be engaged in a wider campaign of ethnic cleansing by depopulating Ukrainian territory through deportations and repopulating Ukrainian cities with imported Russian citizens.

Updated at 05.23EDT

Key events

A summary of today's developments

Summary

Ukraine has 'maintained energy stability' after Russian attacks, says PM

Just under 9,000 Russian troops to be stationed in Belarus, says official

423 children killed since start of invasion, says prosecutor general

More than 30 settlements in Ukraine hit by Russian strikes

Russia continues 'massive, forced deportations', says think tank

Russia 'probably unable to replenish missile stocks', says UK intelligence

Russian death toll reaches 65,000, Ukraine military says

Russian attack on fellow troops followed 'argument over religion', says Ukraine

Summary

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President Zelenskiy said a very severe situation persists in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with the most difficult fighting near the town of Bakhmut.

Officials in Donetsk, which remains under Russian separatist control, have blamed Ukraine for a rocket attack that did significant damage to the citys mayors office.

More than 30 settlements across Ukraine have been hit by Russian strikes in the last day, according to the Ukrainian military.

The Ukrainian military has also said the estimated number of Russians killed since the start of the war has reached 65,000.

Two schools in the southern Zaporizhzhia region have reportedly been destroyed in Russian strikes.

Ukraine has succeeded in maintaining its energy stability after Russian attacks last week that targeted key parts of its infrastructure, Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal has said.

Russia is probably incapable of producing advanced munitions at the rate they are being expended, according to the latest update from the UK Ministry of Defence.

US and allied security officials believe Iran has agreed to provide Russia with surface-to-surface missiles and attack drones intended for use in Ukraine.

The Belarusian defence ministry has said just under 9,000 Russian troops will be stationed in Belarus as part of a regional grouping of forces to protect its borders.

Russian soldiers have reportedly shot dead Ukrainian conductor Yuriy Kerpatenko in his home after he refused to take part in a concert in occupied Kherson.

US-based thinktank The Institute for the Study of War has said Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign.

The UNs undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs has reportedly arrived in Moscow for talks over grain exports.

Poverty in Ukraine has increased tenfold since the start of the war, a top World Bank official has said.

The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said it was incumbent upon Nato allies and other responsible countries, including China and India, to send a very clear and decisive message to Russia that they should not contemplate the use of nuclear weapons in this conflict.

Emine Sinmaz

He was a surprise absentee from the leadership race in July, but the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, is now being touted as a replacement for UK prime minister Liz Truss.

Wallace was promoted to defence secretary in 2019 and has been praised for his handling of the Ukraine crisis.

He was one of the first to make Kyivs case with western allies, and pushed the government to support Ukraine.

Updated at 14.53EDT

Retaining control of its electricity assets has given Queensland in Australia an edge over other regions in coordinating and funding the race to decarbonise the economy, Mick de Brenni, the states energy minister, said.

Queensland last month unveiled a $62bn plan to rid its power grid of coal by 2036, replacing the generation with 25 gigawatts of large-scale wind and solar farms, new transmission lines and two giant pumped hydro plants for storage.

With its dominant ownership position of electricity generation and distribution assets, the government has been able to offset the impact of higher energy prices following Russias invasion of Ukraine.

On the ground, Ukrainian soldiers told AFP there was now close combat with members of pro-Russian forces.

Enemy troops start when night falls. They send their reconnaissance units around 6pm, said one soldier who uses the nom de guerre Poliak.

In a bitter tone of voice, the 50-year-old from the 93rd brigade said inexperienced, single use soldiers are sent into the line of fire to divert attention from more experienced units carrying out sabotage.

Between then and 5 am, we get about seven or eight (diversion) attacks like that, he explained.

Poliak recently suffered a minor shrapnel injury and returned exhausted from the most intense of the fighting.

After four sleepless nights, the former truck driver said he experiences hallucinations from the stress and fatigue.

One evening, his unit opened fire, thinking they could see a Russian commando through night-vision goggles.

Early in the morning, they realised they had been shooting at a pile of logs.

Updated at 13.14EDT

The Russian missiles come to Zaporizhzhia when the peoples dreams are at their deepest, says Oleksandr Starukh.

The governor of this south-eastern region of Ukraine since 2020, Starukh, 49, took the call from his bed at 5.08am on the morning of 24 February when one the first missiles of the Russian invasion had hit a local air defence system. Nearly eight months later he is still taking the dawn calls.

The Russians generally strike, he says, at 2am, 4am and 6am.

The latest raid out of the dark had been just a few hours earlier, when 10 S-300 cruise missiles and four Iranian-made Shahed-136 kamikaze drones crashed into the suburbs of the regions eponymous capital at 5.30am on Saturday morning.

An update from the ministry of defence of Ukraine.

Updated at 13.13EDT

The White House national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, said on Sunday it was incumbent upon Nato allies and other responsible countries, including China and India, to send a very clear and decisive message to Russia that they should not contemplate the use of nuclear weapons in this conflict.

Updated at 11.46EDT

Updated at 11.46EDT

If youre just joining us, heres a quick roundup of all the days news from the war in Ukraine.

President Zelenskiy has said a very severe situation persists in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, with the most difficult fighting near the town of Bakhmut.

Officials in Donetsk, which remains under Russian separatist control, have blamed Ukraine for a rocket attack that did significant damage to the citys mayors office.

More than 30 settlements across Ukraine have been hit by Russian strikes in the last day, according to the Ukrainian military.

The Ukrainian military has also said the estimated number of Russians killed since the start of the war has reached 65,000.

Two schools in the southern Zaporizhzhia region have reportedly been destroyed in Russian strikes.

Ukraine has succeeded in maintaining its energy stability after Russian attacks last week that targeted key parts of its infrastructure, Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal has said.

Russia is probably incapable of producing advanced munitions at the rate they are being expended, according to the latest update from the UK Ministry of Defence.

US and allied security officials believe Iran has agreed to provide Russia with surface-to-surface missiles and attack drones intended for use in Ukraine.

The Belarusian defence ministry has said just under 9,000 Russian troops will be stationed in Belarus as part of a regional grouping of forces to protect its borders.

Russian soldiers have reportedly shot dead Ukrainian conductor Yuriy Kerpatenko in his home after he refused to take part in a concert in occupied Kherson.

US-based thinktank The Institute for the Study of War has said Russia continues to conduct massive, forced deportations of Ukrainians that likely amount to a deliberate ethnic cleansing campaign.

The UNs undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs has reportedly arrived in Moscow for talks over grain exports.

Poverty in Ukraine has increased tenfold since the start of the war, a top World Bank official has said.

Updated at 11.13EDT

Ukraine has succeeded in maintaining its energy stability after Russian attacks last week that targeted key parts of its infrastructure, Ukrainian prime minister Denys Shmyhal has said.

In a post on Facebook, Shmyhal said that, in the first three days of the week, Russia launched up to 130 missile and drone strikes against civilian and energy facilities, particularly in the capital, Kyiv.

He said maintenance workers had been able to restore electricity to some 4,000 settlements, and that people across Ukraine had voluntarily reduced their consumption by an average of 10%, making it easier to avoid outages.

The aggressor sought to intimidate Ukrainians and paralyse the states energy industry. He did not achieve his goal, Shmyhal said.

Updated at 11.12EDT

Four ships carrying 140,000 tonnes of agricultural products left Ukrainian ports on Sunday, the countrys ministry of infrastructure has said.

The ministry said the ships left the ports of Odesa and Pivdennyi on Ukraines south-western coast and were destined for Africa, Asia, and Europe.

It added that, since a deal agreed in July, 1.1m tonnes of grain had been sent to Africa, including five ships worth chartered by the UN World Food Programme.

Many African countries depend heavily on Russian and Ukraine for their grain imports.

In September, Russias President Putin threatened to reintroduce limits on exports, claiming the majority of the grain leaving Ukraine was going to the European Union, not developing countries.

UN data shows that, since the deal was signed, dozens of shipments have gone to developing countries in Africa and elsewhere.

Speaking during a visit to Senegal earlier this month, the Ukrainian foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, said his country would do our best until the last breath to continue exporting Ukrainian grain to Africa and the world for food security.

As per our previous post, the UNs undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs is currently in Moscow negotiating an extension to the July deal.

Updated at 11.13EDT

Martin Griffiths, the UNs under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, has arrived in Moscow for talks over grain exports, Russian state media agency Tass reports, citing a diplomatic source.

The agency said Griffiths along with Rebeca Grynspan, secretary-general of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development is attending talks with the Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Vershinin.

Since a deal brokered in July between the UN, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey, more than six million tonnes of grain and other agricultural exports have been allowed to leave Ukraine.

The original deal applied for 120 days after signing and is set to expire next month.

Speaking earlier this week, Griffiths said he was reasonably confident the deal could be extended, possibly to apply for a longer period.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Israel prepared for a new wave of immigration from the former Soviet state. About 13,000 Ukrainians with Jewish heritage have made aliyah, or emigrated, since then.

Unexpectedly, double that have come from Russia, meaning around one in eight Russian Jews have left the country. Since Vladimir Putins mobilisation announcement in September, their numbers are growing.

I got an Israeli passport many years ago because I always knew something like this was possible. I always knew the dark days of the Soviet Union could return, said Anna Klatis, a journalism professor at Moscow State University who left for Jerusalem with her 16-year-old daughter in February.

I could not let [my daughter] grow up in a place where freedoms are vanishing.

Read the full story here:

The Belarusian defence ministry has said just under 9,000 Russian troops will be stationed in Belarus as part of a regional grouping of forces to protect its borders, Reuters reports.

Last week, the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, said his troops would be deployed with Russian forces near the Ukrainian border as part of a joint grouping, citing what he said were threats from Ukraine and the west.

The first troop trains with Russian servicemen who are part of the [regional grouping] began to arrive in Belarus, Valeriy Revenko, the head of the defence ministrys international military cooperation department, tweeted on Sunday.

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Russia-Ukraine war, as it happened: nearly 9,000 Russian troops to be stationed in Belarus; Putins forces continuing forced deportations - The...

A Ukrainian serviceman checks the trenches dug by Russian soldiers in a retaken area in the Kherson region, Ukraine, on Oct. 12, 2022. Leo Correa/AP hide caption

A Ukrainian serviceman checks the trenches dug by Russian soldiers in a retaken area in the Kherson region, Ukraine, on Oct. 12, 2022.

The European Union will train thousands of Ukrainian soldiers on its own soil starting as early as next month under a plan that is expected to be approved Monday by EU foreign ministers.

The EU has been debating for months on how to best aid Ukrainian forces as the war drags on. With Russia working to mobilize an additional 300,000 troops for the war, turning ordinary people into soldiers is crucial for Ukraine, which, despite recent gains, remains heavily outnumbered on the battlefield.

Poland, one of Ukraine's strongest supporters in the EU, has already offered to host training sessions for 12,000 Ukrainian troops. Germany will also train at least 3,000.

But some EU leaders are wary that training Ukrainian forces inside their own borders will further anger Moscow.

Final details need to be ironed out, including how to move the soldiers from Ukraine into EU territory.

The EU may coordinate its training with the United Kingdom, which has already put an estimated 6,000 Ukrainian civilians through basic training on British soil.

U.K.-based training missions have become especially important for Kyiv, given how dangerous training large numbers of people inside Ukraine has become. In March, for example, a Russian missile attack on a military training base close to Ukraine's western border near Poland killed at least 35 people.

With reporting from Frank Langfitt

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EU expected to approve plan to train Ukrainian soldiers - NPR

ASTANA, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Russia should be finished calling up reservists in two weeks, President Vladimir Putin said on Friday, promising an end to a divisive mobilization that has seen hundreds of thousands of men summoned to fight in Ukraine and huge numbers flee the country.

Putin also said Russia had no plans "for now" for more massive air strikes like those it carried out this week, in which it fired more than 100 long range missiles at targets across Ukraine.

Putin ordered the mobilization three weeks ago, part of a response to Russian battlefield defeats. He has also proclaimed the annexation of four partially occupied Ukrainian provinces and threatened to use nuclear weapons.

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Russia has since seen the first signs of public criticism of the authorities since the war began and officials have acknowledged some mistakes. Members of ethnic minorities and rural residents have complained of being drafted at higher rates than ethnic Russians and city dwellers.

Defending the order, Putin said the front line was too long to defend solely with contract soldiers.

He said 222,000 out of an expected 300,000 reservists had already been mobilized. "This work is coming to an end," he told a news conference at the end of a summit in Kazakhstan. "I think that in about two weeks all the mobilization activities will be finished."

Since the mobilization order was given, Russian forces have continued to lose ground in eastern Ukraine and the south.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in his nightly video address, once again said Ukraine's forces would retake all of its territory.

"Yes, they still have people to throw on the battlefield, they have weapons, missiles, they have (Iranian-made) Shaheds which they use against Ukraine," he said. "They still have the possibility to terrorize our cities and all Europeans, blackmailing the world. But they have no chance of succeeding and will have none because Ukraine is moving forward."

Zelenskiy also said he had spoken to Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. "We discussed possibilities for acting together in the interests of our countries and our peoples. I believe that the results we need are possible," he said, giving no details.

A woman stands near her destroyed car near an old mill, built around 1885, also destroyed during a Russian missile attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine October 14, 2022. REUTERS/Stringer

The U.S. government accused the Saudis of kowtowing to Russia - as it wages the war in Ukraine - when the OPEC+ oil producer group it leads announced this month it would cut its oil production target.

A Western official said some of the newly mobilized Russian troops were already on the battlefield taking casualties, and that their presence was unlikely to turn the tide. "It is clear that they have been fielded with very, very limited training and very, very poor equipment," the official said.

The official also suggested Russia had too few missiles to sustain attacks like those this week: "Russia is rapidly exhausting its supply of long-range precision munitions, in particular its air-launched cruise missiles."

Ukraine's top general, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, struck an upbeat tone after his country's rapid advances in the northeast and south.

"The strategic initiative is in our hands, so the main thing is not to stop," Zaluzhnyi said after speaking by phone with the commander in chief of Europe's combined NATO forces, U.S. General Christopher Cavoli.

Ukraine's General Staff said on Facebook late on Friday that Ukraine's forces had destroyed large amounts of Russian arms and equipment in Antratsyt south of Luhansk, where Ukraine hopes to recapture major towns after its successes in Kharkiv region.

It said Russian forces had launched more artillery and air strikes on towns including Konstantynivka southwest of Bakhmut, their main target in Donetsk region, and Zaporizhzhia city.

Reuters was not able to verify the battlefield reports.

Separately, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko put his country on what he called a heightened state of terrorism alert on Friday, the latest gesture hinting at growing pressure to join the war.

Lukashenko, Putin's closest international ally, has allowed Russian forces to use Belarus as a staging ground but so far kept his own troops out. This week he announced Russian troops would be joining Belarusian forces near the Ukrainian border.

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Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Philippa Fletcher, Hugh Lawson and Patricia Zengerle; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel, Peter Graff and Grant McCool

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Putin says Ukraine mobilisation should be finished in two weeks - Reuters UK