Category Archives: Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin might face "military mutiny" from the Wagner Group, former Russian commander Igor Girkin warned. The private military unit's leader Yevgeny Prigozhin had earlier threatened to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut and has also publicly criticized the Russian defense ministry, Newsweek reported.

Calling for the withdrawal of units from the front without the consent of the high command is a military rebellion and nothing else, Igor Girkin said, adding that Yevgeny Prigozhin "openly" blackmailed Russia's military leadership as he is aware that withdrawing his troops could lead to "catastrophic consequences" for Russia.

Earlier Reuters reported that Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted that his forces are suffering heavy casualties because Vladimir Putin is not supporting his group. He previously spoke extremely badly of both the Russian command and the Russian army as a whole, [saying] we must forget the word Airborne Forces are doing something in Bakhmut, Igor Girkin said.

"Since his political ambitions (multiplied by psychopathy, the organization's demonstrative war crimes, a tendency to shamelessly and in many respects falsely self-promote and spread rotten 'criminal concepts' to the armed forces)only harm both Wagner and the common cause of victory over 'Ukraine,'" Igor Girkin added.

This comes as a Ukrainian military spokesman said that Kyiv remains in control of a key supply route into Bakhmut, but the situation remains "really difficult".

"For several weeks, the Russians have been talking about seizing the 'road of life,' as well as about constant fire control over it," Serhiy Cherevatyi said as per news agency Reuters.

Yes, it is really difficult there, because their attempts to seize the road continue, as well as attempts to establish fire control. But ... the defence forces have not allowed the Russians to 'cut off' our logistics, the spokesman added.

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Vladimir Putin faces threat of military mutiny? Ukraine asserts Bakhmut gains - Hindustan Times

April 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine remains in control of a key supply route into Bakhmut, a military spokesperson said on Saturday, as the head of Russia's mercenary Wagner Group threatened to withdraw some of his troops from the eastern city if Moscow did not send more ammunition.

Russian forces have been trying for 10 months to punch their way into the shattered remains of what was once a city of 70,000. Kyiv has pledged to defend Bakhmut, which Russia sees as a stepping stone to attacking other cities.

"For several weeks, the Russians have been talking about seizing the 'road of life,' as well as about constant fire control over it," Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukrainian troops in the east, said in an interview with local news website Dzerkalo Tyzhnia.

"Yes, it is really difficult there ... (but) the defence forces have not allowed the Russians to 'cut off' our logistics."

The "road of life" is a vital road between the ruined Bakhmut and the nearby town Chasiv Yar to the west - a distance of just over 17 km (10.56 miles).

Ukraine's top military command said in its daily update on Sunday that its forces had repelled 58 Russian attacks over the past day along the part of frontline stretching from Bakhmut through Avdiivka and on to Maryinka further south in the Donetsk region.

If Bakhmut fell, Chasiv Yar would probably be next to come under Russian attack according to military analysts, though it is on higher ground and Ukrainian forces are believed to have built defensive fortifications nearby.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of Russia's Wagner Group, who has often claimed unverifiable successes, said that his forces have advanced some 100 to 150 metres (109 to 164 yards) in Bakhmut, leaving just under 3 square km of the city in Ukrainian hands.

But he said he lost 94 troops.

"It would have had been five times fewer if we had more ammunition," Prigozhin said in an audio statement published on the Telegram messaging app of his press service on Saturday evening.

Separately, in a nearly 90-minute video interview with Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov published on Saturday, Prigozhin threatened to withdraw troops from Bakhmut, saying they had enough ammunition left only for days.

"If the shortage of ammunition is not replenished, then ... most likely, we will be forced to withdraw part of the units," Prigozhin said, quoting a letter he said was sent to Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, giving an April 28 deadline.

It was not immediately known when the interview was recorded.

Prigozhin has often said the regular armed forces are not giving his men the ammunition they need and has sometimes accused top brass of betrayal.

"We need to stop deceiving the population and telling them that everything is fine," Prigozhin said in the interview. "I must honestly say: Russia is on the brink of a disaster."

Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by Jamie Freed

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Ukraine says it controls key supply route into Bakhmut - Reuters

One side will say that Ukraines advances wouldve worked had the administration given Kyiv everything it asked for, namely longer-range missiles, fighter jets and more air defenses. The other side, administration officials worry, will claim Ukraines shortcoming proves it cant force Russia out of its territory completely.

That doesnt even account for the reaction of Americas allies, mainly in Europe, who may see a peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia as a more attractive option if Kyiv cant prove victory is around the corner.

Inside the administration, officials stress theyre doing everything possible to make the spring offensive succeed.

Weve nearly completed the requests of what [Ukraine] said they needed for the counteroffensive as we have surged weapons and equipment to Ukraine over the past few months, said one administration official who, like others, was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive internal considerations.

But belief in the strategic cause is one thing. Belief in the tactics is another and behind closed doors the administration is worried about what Ukraine can accomplish.

Those concerns recently spilled out into the open during a leak of classified information onto social media. A top secret assessment from early February stated that Ukraine would fall well short of its counteroffensive goals. More current American assessments are that Ukraine may make some progress in the south and east, but wont be able to repeat last years success.

Ukraine has hoped to sever Russias land bridge to Crimea and U.S. officials are now skeptical that will happen, according to two administration officials familiar with the assessment. But there are still hopes in the Pentagon that Ukraine will hamper Russias supply lines there, even if a total victory over Russias newly fortified troops ends up too difficult to achieve.

Moreover, U.S. intelligence indicates that Ukraine simply does not have the ability to push Russian troops from where they were deeply entrenched and a similar feeling has taken hold about the battlefield elsewhere in Ukraine, according to officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the U.S. hasnt adequately armed his forces properly and so, until then, the counteroffensive cant begin.

There is belief that Kyiv is willing to consider adjusting its goals, according to American officials, and a more modest aim might be easier to be sold as a win.

There has been discussion, per aides, of framing it to the Ukrainians as a ceasefire and not as permanent peace talks, leaving the door open for Ukraine to regain more of its territory at a future date. Incentives would have to be given to Kyiv: perhaps NATO-like security guarantees, economic help from the European Union, more military aid to replenish and bolster Ukraines forces, and the like. And aides have expressed hope of re-engaging China to push Putin to the negotiating table as well.

But that would still lead to the dilemma of what happens next, and how harshly domestic critics respond.

If the counteroffensive does not go well, the administration has only itself to blame for withholding certain types of arms and aid at the time when it was most needed, said Kurt Volker, the special envoy for Ukraine during the Trump administration.

A counteroffensive that doesnt meet expectations will also cause allies in foreign capitals to question how much more they can spare if Kyivs victory looks farther and farther away.

European public support may wane over time as European energy and economic costs stay high, said Clementine Starling, a director and fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington, D.C. A fracturing of transatlantic support will likely hurt U.S. domestic support and Congress and the Biden administration may struggle to sustain it.

Many European nations could also push Kyiv to bring the fighting to an end. A poor counteroffensive will spark further questions about what an outcome to the war will look like, and the extent to which a solution can really be achieved by continuing to send military arms and aid alone, Starling said.

Biden and his top aides have publicly stressed that Zelenskyy should only begin peace talks when he is ready. But Washington has also communicated to Kyiv some political realities: at some point, especially with Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, the pace of U.S. aid will likely slow. Officials in Washington, though not pressing Kyiv, have begun preparing for what those conversations could look like and understand it may be a tough political sell at home for Zelenskyy.

If Ukraine cant gain dramatically on the battlefield, the question inevitably arises as to whether it is time for a negotiated stop to the fighting, said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. Its expensive, were running low on munitions, weve got other contingencies around the world to prepare for.

Its legitimate to ask all these questions without compromising Ukraines goals. Its simply a question of means, Haass said.

Earlier this month, Andriy Sybiha, a deputy head in Zelenskyys office, told the Financial Times that Ukraine would be willing to talk if its forces reach Crimeas doorstep. If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue, he said.

That comment was quickly rebuffed by Tamila Tasheva, Zelenskyys Crimea envoy: If Russia wont voluntarily leave the peninsula, Ukraine will continue to liberate its land by military means, she told POLITICO earlier this month.

It doesnt help Americas confidence that the war has slowed to a brutal slog.

Both sides have traded punishing blows, focused on small cities like Bakhmut, with neither force able to fully dislodge the other. The Russian surge ordered up earlier this year, meant to revitalize Moscows struggling war effort, seized little territory at the cost of significant casualties and did not do much to change the overall trajectory of the conflict.

Ukrainian soldiers chat in war-hit Bakhmut.|Iryna Rubakova/AP Photo

The fighting has taken a toll on the Ukrainians as well. Fourteen months into the conflict, the Ukrainians have suffered staggering losses around 100,000 casualties with many of their top soldiers either sidelined or exhausted. The troops have also gone through historic amounts of ammunition and weaponry, with even the Wests prodigious output unable to match Zelenskyys urgent requests.

U.S. officials have also briefed Ukraine on the dangers of overextending its ambitions and spreading its troops too thin the same warning Biden gave then-Afghan President Ashraf Ghani as the Taliban moved to sweep across the country during the U.S. military withdrawal in 2021.

But the chances of Ukraine backing down from its highest aspirations is, to say the least, unlikely. Its as if this is the only and last opportunity for Ukraine to show that it can win, which of course isnt true, said Alina Polyakova, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C.

CORRECTION: A previous version of this story incorrectly described the casualties affected by the conflict.

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Biden's team fears the aftermath of a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive - POLITICO

Follow the latest news on the leak of classified documents.

Leak or hack? Information or disinformation? A coup for Russia or a ploy by the United States?

For days after U.S. intelligence documents were found circulating on social media, some marked top secret, questions swirled about how dozens of pages from Pentagon briefings became public, and how much stock to put in them.

Then the federal authorities made their first arrest in the case, taking into custody a young national guardsman who, they say, first posted the documents online. They now say that the disclosures were even more extensive than first appeared, and that the airman made repeated attempts to cover his tracks.

Here is what we know about the leak.

Federal investigators on Thursday arrested Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old air national guardsman from Massachusetts. The airman was the leader of a small online gaming chat group where a cache of the documents first appeared.

Hours before the arrest, The New York Times reported that Airman Teixeira oversaw a private online group named Thug Shaker Central where about 20 to 30 people, mostly young men and teenagers, came together over a shared love of guns, racist online memes and video games.

The material photographs of printed briefing reports eventually began circulating on platforms like Twitter, 4chan and Telegram, but the files had sat on Discord, a social media messaging platform, since early March, analysts said.

The images look like hastily taken photographs of pieces of paper sitting atop what appears to be a hunting magazine. Experts who have reviewed the material say it appears that a classified briefing was folded up, placed in a pocket and then taken out of a secure area to be photographed.

The Times later found evidence that Airman Teixeira had been posting sensitive information months earlier than previously known and to a much larger chat group on Discord.

Yes, officials say at least, for the most part.

Some of the documents were doctored, officials said, but those revisions appear to have been made after the material was initially uploaded on the internet.

It is unclear why the reports would have been altered, but some of the material, military analysts say, overstates American estimates of Ukrainian war dead and understates how many Russian troops have been killed since Moscows invasion last year.

And although officials have confirmed that many of the documents are authentic, it is also unclear how accurate their intelligence assessments are.

The leak appears to go well beyond classified material on Russia and Ukraine, and the information revealed in the leak is remarkably timely.

Security analysts who have reviewed the documents on social media sites say the growing trove also includes sensitive briefing material on Canada, China, Israel and South Korea, in addition to the Indo-Pacific military theater and the Middle East.

On the war in Ukraine:

The documents do not fundamentally alter the understanding of what is happening at the front, nor do they contain specific battle plans. But they do detail secret American and NATO plans for building up the Ukrainian military.

They also suggest that the Ukrainian forces are in more dire straits than their government has acknowledged publicly. Without an influx of munitions, the documents show, Ukraines air defense system may soon collapse, which could allow Russia to unleash its air force on Ukrainian troops.

Some documents paint a picture of the Russian government feuding over the count of the dead and wounded in the war, with a domestic intelligence agency, the F.S.B., accusing the military of obscuring the scale of casualties that Russia has suffered. The finding highlights the continuing reluctance of military officials to convey bad news up the chain of command, American intelligence officials said.

One document outlines four wild card scenarios that could affect the course of the war: hypothetical scenarios including the deaths of Presidents Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, the removal of leadership within the Russian Armed Forces and a Ukrainian strike on the Kremlin. U.S. officials declined to say whether the document was genuine, but they did not dispute its authenticity.

U.S. officials prepared a dire assessment of one of the longest-running battles of the war, in Bakhmut, and pulled back the curtain on Ukrainian generals decision to use elite units to push back the Russians there.

To brace for the introduction of advanced NATO-supplied tanks on Ukraines battlefields, Russian forces are preparing to pay a bonus to troops who manage to damage or destroy one.

The leak itself in particular the confirmation that the United States spies on allies and adversaries alike may prove damaging to the unified coalition that has emerged to help Ukraine fend off the Russian invasion. It may also make allies think twice about sharing sensitive information.

Among the other disclosures:

A Russian fighter jet fired a missile at a manned British surveillance aircraft flying over the Black Sea in September but the munition malfunctioned, according to U.S. military officials and one of the recently leaked classified intelligence reports.

The documents shed light on why U.S. officials believed China was close to sending weapons to Russia to help its war. They cite signals intercepts from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reporting that Beijing had approved the incremental provision of lethal aid but that it wanted to keep the transactions secret and was prepared to disguise the military aid as civilian equipment delivered via sea, rail and air.

Officials in South Korea, a key American ally whose official policy is not to provide lethal weapons to countries at war, feared that the United States might divert South Korean arms to Kyiv. The South Korean government tried to downplay the disclosures, which opposition lawmakers criticized as possible evidence of U.S. spying.

A hacking group under the guidance of Russias Federal Security Service may have compromised a Canadian gas pipeline company in February and caused damage to its infrastructure.

The Pentagon documents offer a glimpse into the depth of U.S. knowledge into Russias security and intelligence services, allowing Washington to warn Ukraine about planned strikes and gain insights into the strength of Moscows war machine.

The material reinforces an idea that intelligence officials have long acknowledged: The United States has a clearer understanding of Russian military operations than it does of Ukrainian planning.

The military apparatus is so deeply compromised, the documents suggest, that American intelligence has been able to obtain daily real-time warnings on the timing of Moscows strikes and even its specific targets.

That may now change.

The leak has the potential to do real damage to Ukraines war effort by exposing which Russian agencies the United States knows the most about, giving Moscow a potential opportunity to cut off the sources of information.

Reporting was contributed by Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, Julian E. Barnes, Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Michael Schwirtz, David E. Sanger, Ivan Nechepurenko Anton Troianovski, Aric Toler, Christiaan Triebert, Malachy Browne and Chris Buckley.

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What Do the Leaked U.S. Intelligence Documents Say? - The New York Times

LVIV, Ukraine, April 30 (Reuters) - Ukraine said on Sunday its troops were holding onto parts of the eastern city of Bakhmut, focus of a prolonged Russian assault, while the head of a major pro-Moscow force said his men were making progress.

Russian forces, which have struggled for months to capture Bakhmut, are slowly taking over more and more of the city.

"Fierce fighting continues in the city of Bakhmut. The enemy is unable to take control over the city, despite throwing all its forces into the battle and having some success," said Ukrainian deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar.

"The defence of Bakhmut is coping with its military tasks," she said in a Telegram post. The Ukrainian military does not reveal exactly how much of the city is in Russian hands.

Separately, Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukrainian troops in the east, told the ICTV channel it was still possible to supply the Bakhmut defenders with food, ammunition and medicine and evacuate the wounded.

Russia's defence ministry earlier said its forces had taken four blocks in western Bakhmut on Sunday. Reuters could not independently confirm the claim.

Ukraine, which says its forces are waiting for better weather before launching a long-promised counteroffensive, is pleading with allies to overcome their hesitation about supplying modern fighter jets.

"Without air cover, it is impossible to achieve good results in both offensive and defensive actions," air force spokesman Yuri Ignat told TSN television on Sunday, saying it would take months to train pilots on western planes.

The attack on Bakhmut is being spearheaded by the private Wagner Group militia, whose leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Telegram that his men had advanced up to 230 metres (750 feet) in some directions on Sunday. Pro-Kyiv units control less than three sq km (1.2 sq miles), he said.

Prigozhin, who has clashed repeatedly with Russia's defence ministry, reiterated complaints that Moscow was not supplying his forces with enough ammunition. As a result, Wagner had suffered unnecessarily high losses, he added.

Additional reporting and writing by David Ljunggren

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Ukraine says it still holds parts of Bakhmut, Russia reports progress - Reuters

Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, we began tracking American public attitudes toward the war. In four polls conducted between March 2022 and October 2022, our University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll found consistently robust public backing for U.S. support for Ukraine. We set out to determine if this trend has continued a year after the war. Our latest University of Maryland Critical Issues Poll with Ipsos, which I direct with my colleague Stella Rouse, was carried out among 1,203 respondents by Ipsos probabilistic KnowledgePanel with a margin of error of 3.2% from March 27-April 5, 2023. We probed if public support remains strong, repeating some of the questions we have asked in the past. But we also asked new questions about the aims of American support and the degree to which the public is prepared to stay the course. Here are four key takeaways:

Asking what the primary U.S. objective in Ukraine should be, a plurality, 26%, chose helping Ukraine return to the status quo that prevailed prior to the invasion, while 18% chose helping Ukraine liberate all the territories occupied by Russia. Only 8% said the aim should be to weaken or defeat Russia, while 18% chose preventing Russian expansionism. It is notable that the differences between Democrats and Republicans on this issue are far smaller than on any other issue regarding Ukraine.

A plurality of Americans, 46%, said the United States should stay the course in supporting Ukraine for only one to two years, compared with 38% who said the United States should stay the course for as long as it takes. The partisan divide was notable on this issue, with 62% of Republicans wanting to stay the course for one to two years, compared to 51% of Democrats who wanted to stay the course for as long as it takes.

At the same time, the public is divided on the level of expenditure in support of Ukraine between those who say its too much (33%) and those who say its about the right level (30%). Only 12% said its too little. Half of Republicans said the expenditure was too much compared to 13% of Democrats.

The public was also divided about providing fighter jets and long-range missiles to Ukraine, but with more people favoring both than opposing them, and with more Democrats than Republicans favoring such supplies.

Since March of 2022, we fielded four other polls tracking the publics willingness to pay a price in rising energy costs, higher inflation, and loss of American troops. Public support had been relatively robust, with very little change over the months ending in October 2022. But the current poll shows a marked drop on all three measures ranging from 9-15 points.

What explains such a drop? Perhaps the realization that there is no end in sight for the war at its first anniversary was sobering to some. But there is one variable that we have been measuring that could account for at least some of the drop. As we have shown in previous polls, the degree of support for Ukraine is highly correlated with the publics evaluation of Ukraine winning or Russia losing. In the October poll, we noted stories stressing Ukrainian successes and Russian failures, which may have accounted for higher confidence in the outcome. In the newest poll, there is a marked drop in the assessment that Ukraine is winning, and Russia is losing a drop that echoes the decline in the publics preparedness to pay a price for supporting Ukraine: Overall, the assessment that Russia is losing fell from 48% in October to 37% in April, and the assessment that Ukraine is succeeding went from 43% in October to 26% in April. It is also notable that there were parallel drops in the assessments of both Republicans and Democrats.

It is hard to know if the change in the publics assessment of Russian and Ukrainian performance in the war may also account for the finding that only 8% of respondents said weakening or defeating Russia should be a primary U.S. priority in helping Ukraine, as we have not asked this question in prior polls.

It is nonetheless important to stress that the publics preparedness to support Ukraine remains highly partisan. Even with the drop in support for Ukraine since October, most Democrats remain prepared to pay a price in higher energy costs (65%) and rising inflation (60%), while only about one-third of Republicans say the same. And half of Democrats, 51%, say they are prepared to stay the course as long as it takes, even as only 25% of Republicans say the same.

But the marked weakening of Americans support must be concerning to U.S. policymakers. The 2024 presidential election campaign is bound to impact public attitudes on this issue given the partisan divide on Ukraine policy and in the narratives of some of the candidates. One of the critical factors will remain, however, the public perception of the unfolding battles in Ukraine itself, whether they see the tide favoring a Ukrainian victory, a Russian one, or a stalemate.

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Americans show signs of impatience with Ukraine war - Brookings Institution

The United States is wiring Ukraine with sensors that can detect bursts of radiation from a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb and can confirm the identity of the attacker.

In part, the goal is to make sure that if Russia detonates a radioactive weapon on Ukrainian soil, its atomic signature and Moscows culpability could be verified.

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine 14 months ago, experts have worried about whether President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would use nuclear arms in combat for the first time since the American bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The preparations, mentioned last month in a House hearing and detailed Wednesday by the National Nuclear Security Administration, a federal agency that is part of the Energy Department, seem to constitute the hardest evidence to date that Washington is taking concrete steps to prepare for the worst possible outcomes of the invasion of Ukraine, Europes second largest nation.

The Nuclear Emergency Support Team, or NEST, a shadowy unit of atomic experts run by the security agency, is working with Ukraine to deploy the radiation sensors, train personnel, monitor data and warn of deadly radiation.

In a statement sent to The New York Times in response to a reporters question, the agency said the network of atomic sensors was being deployed throughout the region and would have the ability to characterize the size, location and effects of any nuclear explosion. Additionally, it said the deployed sensors would deny Russia any opportunity to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine without attribution.

That statement goes to the fog of nuclear war and how the United States could use the new system to pierce it.

In one scenario, Washington could use information gathered by the network to rule out the possibility of misidentifying the attacker who set off a nuclear blast. That might seem like an unnecessary step given the distinctiveness of a mushroom cloud. But if a weapon was delivered by a truck, tank or boat instead of a conspicuous missile with a trackable flight path, figuring out its origins might prove near impossible.

Public knowledge of such defensive planning, nuclear experts say, can deter Moscow by letting it know that Washington can expose what is called a false-flag operation.

For instance, Moscow could falsely claim that Kyiv set off a nuclear blast on the battlefield to try to draw the West into deeper war assistance. But in theory, with the sensor network in place, Washington would be able to point to its own nuclear attribution analyses to reveal that Moscow was in fact the attacker.

Last fall, Russia, without offering any evidence, claimed repeatedly that Ukraine was planning to explode a bomb designed to spread radioactive material, a so-called dirty bomb. Washington warned that the Kremlin was trying to create a false-flag pretext to escalate the war.

The science of nuclear attribution underwent rapid development in the United States after the September2001 terrorist attacks raised the issue of domestic nuclear terrorism. While the science has secretive aspects, its outlines are publicly known.

Now, this newly acquired capability is being used on foreign soil in the context of a potential nuclear war or a Russian attack on Ukraines 15 nuclear reactors at four power generation sites.

If a nuclear emergency were to occur in Ukraine, whether a radiation release from a nuclear reactor or a nuclear weapon detonation, the security agency said in its statement, scientific analyses would be rapidly provided to U.S. government authorities and decision-making centers in Ukraine and the region to make actionable, technically informed decisions to protect public health and safety.

Nuclear experts say such defensive precautions could face their greatest test in coming weeks as the Ukrainian army launches its spring offensive. China has leaned on Russia to discontinue its nuclear saber rattling and Mr. Putin has not recently invoked a nuclear threat. But Western experts worry that Russias battlefield failures are making Mr. Putin, if anything, more dependent on his nuclear arsenal, and theyworry that fresh setbacks could increase his willingness to pull the nuclear trigger.

The security agency reports to Jennifer M. Granholm, the energy secretary. Last month she told Congress of the general precautions for radiation detection in Ukraine and said the objective of the U.S. assistance was to make sure that the Ukrainians are safe and not exposed. She gave few details, however, saying that would require a closed session.

The Energy Department and the security agency say they are spending roughly $160 million on the atomic precautions in Ukraine this year, with a similar amount requested for 2024.

Jeffrey T. Richelson, author of Defusing Armageddon, a 2009 book on theNuclear Emergency Support Team, reported that it often teamed up with the Joint Special Operations Command, an elite military unit so secretive that the Pentagon for years refused to acknowledge its existence.

Experts say Ukraine needs all the help it can get because its nuclear infrastructure is so extensive and has faced heavy attacks by Russia over the past 14 months.

Shortly after the start of theinvasion, Russian forces seized control of the defunct Chernobyl nuclear plant, which in 1986 suffered a meltdown that sent radioactive clouds over parts of Europe and locally left a wasteland of contaminated soil. The Russian troops dug up a nearby section of earth, increasing radiation levels in the area but not enough to endanger workers.

The Russian forces also fired on and captured Europes largest nuclear power plant, Zaporizhzhia, a complex of six reactors. A fire broke out during the assault, but safety officers detected no radiation.

A main Ukrainian site for nuclear research in Kharkiv the sprawling Institute of Physics and Technology suffered 100 strikes from Russian shells and missiles in the conflicts early days. The salvos damaged a nuclear facility used for the production of medical isotopes, but experts found no radiation leaks. The overall complex lost power for more than a month.

In Kyiv, Russian projectiles hit the Institute for Nuclear Research, starting a fire in a warehouse. The institutes small reactor was undamaged, and no radiation leaks were found.

Ukraines other atomic infrastructure includes additional power plants; storage sites for spent nuclear fuel; and facilities across the nation, including hospitals, that use radioactive materials for research and medical therapies.

The Energy Department, in addition to NESTs assistance, says itis providing support to partner agencies in Ukraine on measuring aerial radiation, modeling atmospheric plumes of radiation, countering nuclear smuggling and treating radiation injuries.

Edwin Lyman, a nuclear power expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists who has closely monitored the Ukrainian war, said a federal official told him of a possible reactor threat scenario. It posits that Russia, if it suffered a humiliating defeat and withdrew from Ukraine, might retaliate by firing on a reactor or its spent fuel storage areas in order to release high radioactivity into the environment.

Thats one of the biggest dangers, Dr. Lyman said. If they wanted to render as much of the countryside as they could uninhabitable, those reactors might become targets.

He was heartened, Dr. Lyman added, to learn that NEST and the Energy Department were being proactive and taking these threats seriously.

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U.S. Wires Ukraine With Radiation Sensors to Detect Nuclear Blasts - The New York Times

Ukraine's finance minister on Friday said Kyiv should use its bilateral relationship with China as leverage to bring an end to Russia's full-scale invasion.

His comments came shortly after a long-anticipated phone call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both leaders spoke earlier this week for the first time since Russia's war with Ukraine began in February last year.

"I am not fully convinced that we can emphasize something particular after this conversation but what I truly can tell you is that it is important to continue dialogue between our countries," Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko told CNBC's Silvia Amaro in Stockholm, Sweden.

"We really understand the importance of China and we really understand the importance for us to create our own relationship with China and to prevent China [from fully supporting] Russia."

When asked whether China could be seen as Ukraine's best friend in the bid to find a compromise for peace, Marchenko replied, "of course not," instead naming the United States, the Group of Seven nations and "all our partners" supporting Ukraine.

He added that Kyiv "should use China as leverage to win this war," saying the country must use every opportunity "to convince Russia to stop this bloody war in Ukraine."

China said Wednesday that it would send special representatives to Ukraine and hold talks with all parties in an attempt to bring an end to the conflict. The intervention follows months of apparent reluctance to engage with Kyiv on the same level as Moscow.

Chinese state media said Xi told his Ukrainian counterpart on the call that Beijing would focus on promoting peace talks between Ukraine and Russia.

Zelenskyy, meanwhile, said via Twitter that the "long and meaningful" discussion could help to "give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations."

The timing of the call and China's decision to send emissaries to Ukraine has raised eyebrows among political and defense analysts, particularly as Ukraine is thought to be preparing to launch a large-scale counteroffensive against Russian forces in a bid to retake territory in the east and south.

CNBC's Holly Ellyatt contributed to this report.

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Ukraine should use China as leverage to help win the war with Russia, minister says - CNBC

A Ukrainian Buk battery.

Russias winter offensive is grinding to a bloody halt in the ruins of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraines Donbas region. Yes, the Russians have occupied most of the devastated city. But its cost them thousands of their best troops.

Having defeated the Russian offensive without committing its 20 or so newly-raised brigades, Ukraine is poised to launch a counteroffensiveperhaps as soon as the spring mud finally dries up.

If theres a big potential spoiler, its the Russian air force. For most of the first 14 months of Russias wider war on Ukraine, Soviet-vintage Ukrainian air-defenses have kept at bay Russias hundreds of modern fighter-bombers.

But Kyivs old air-defense batteries are running out of missiles. If the surface-to air missiles run out before Ukraines foreign allies can deliver substantial numbers of new air-defense systems, the steel barrier that has blocked Russian air-strikes finally could fall.

Russias Sukhoi fighter-bombers then could range across Ukraine at altitudessay, 10,000 feet or higherthat are favorable to their relatively crude sensors and munitions.

Russian attack aircraft fleets have proven in Syria that they can be brutally effective against fixed defensive positions, cities and infrastructure targets if they are able to operate freely at medium altitude, Justin Bronk explained in a new report for the Virginia-based think-tank CNA.

Therefore, if Ukraines SAM systems cannot be kept resupplied, augmented, and ultimately replaced by Western partner nations, then the [Russian air force] could credibly threaten to overpower the Ukrainian air forces remaining fighters and gain control of the air space over the frontlines in key areas.

This would pose a serious risk to the Ukrainian armys ability to sustainably hold fixed defensive positions, assemble reinforcements and reserve units in rear areas, and safely marshal ammunition and logistics supplies, Bronk added.

However, if Ukraine can maintain its current levels of tactical and strategic SAM coverage, then it is unlikely that the [Russian air force] will be able to significantly change its fortunes so far into the war.

The Ukraine air war in many ways has defied expectations. Observers accustomed to the American way of war may have expected the war to begin with a concerted effort by the Russian air force to roll back Ukrainian air-defenses, shoot down Ukraines small force of Mikoyan MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-27 fighters then relentlessly bomb headquarters, army bases, arms plants, railways and highways in order to behead, gut, strangle and paralyze Ukrainian ground forces.

None of that happenedand for one main reason. The Russian air force is bad at suppressing and destroying enemy air-defenses, a mission the Americans call SEAD/DEAD. The main problem, for the Russians, is intelligence. More specifically, timely intelligence that can inform command and planning processes for finding and destroying air-defense systems that move constantly.

The most significant limiting factor in terms of the initial [Russian air force] strike campaign was that dynamic battle-damage assessment and retargeting processes were not granular enough or fast enough to account for Ukraines successful repositioning of most of its mobile air-defenses, Bronk wrote.

The unsuppressed Ukrainian missile batteries quickly inflicted a heavy toll. Russian flying regiments lost around 50 Su-25s, Su-30s, Su-34s and Su-35s in just the first six months of the wider war.

So the Russian air campaign over Ukraine shifted. Instead of targeting Ukrainian forces and infrastructure across the country, regiments focused on shallow attacks across narrow sections of the front: lobbing rockets, unguided bombs and, more recently, crude glide-bombs at targets no more than 20 miles from the line of contact.

The closer crews had to get to the front line to deploy their munitions, the lower they had to fly to avoid detection by Ukraines intact air-defense network. Low flying helped to staunch Russias aerial losses, but it also greatly increased time pressure and cockpit workload, Bronk explained. That has constrained pilots ability to find and strike mobile targets.

Now imagine if Russian pilots didnt have to fly a few hundred feet from the ground just to keep from getting shot down. Imagine hundreds of Sukhois streaking across Ukraine, dropping thousands of tons of bombs from comfortable altitudes.

Given the depleted state of Ukraines own fighter brigadesand the refusal by Kyivs bigger allies to provide modern warplanes such as F-16s as replacements for the 60 or so MiGs and Sukhois Ukraine has lostonly Ukraines ground-based air-defenses can forestall this aerial apocalypse.

But after firing scores of missiles from its best, Soviet-made S-300 and Buk air-defense batteries every day for more than a year, Ukraine is running outand replacement missiles all are made in Russia.

The classified documents that a braggadocious U.S. Air National Guard airman leaked online indicated the Buks and S-300s would run out of missiles in April and May, respectively.

Which helps to explain why deploying new Western-made air-defense systems might by Kyivs top priority right now. We have a Soviet [air-defense] system, and its missile reserves are depleting, Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov said. If we dont produce them and only nations from which we cant get them have more, we need to replenish them with something else.

Good news for Ukraine: the first of three long-range Patriot SAM batteriespledged by the United States, Germany and othershas arrived. Ukraines allies also have pledged 10 batteries of the medium-range National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System. As many as eight already are in Ukraine.

The problem for Ukraine is that these three long-range and 10 medium-range batteries are replacing at least 25 old S-300 batteries and a dozen or more batteries with Buks. Yes, Ukraine also is getting an assortment of other air-defense systemsold HAWKs, Aspides and Crotales, among othersbut the Patriots and NASAMS are the best and most numerous of Ukraines new air-defenses.

Theyre how Ukraine will maintain its air-defense network and prevent a profound shift in the aerial balance of power toward Russia. A shift that could disrupt Ukraines long preparation for a ground counteroffensive.

All that is to say, Ukraine needs more Patriots and NASAMS. And it needs them now.

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Just One Thing Is Keeping Russian Warplanes From Rampaging ... - Forbes

Ukraine

People turn to handouts and pawning goods as Kyivs bustling bars belie reality of life in wartime for many

In the Treasure pawn shop in Kyiv, Oleksandra, 40, a well turned out woman in a hooded wool coat and Nike trainers, has come to redeem her sewing machines. Like all those visiting the store, she does not want to give her family name.

She says that when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, she was working as an accountant for a firm that employed 14 people, who were all laid off because of the conflict. Since then she has struggled to find regular work. With savings running out, like many others in Kyiv, she turned to pawning her possessions to get by, only finding a job a year later that allowed her to claim back her machines.

As Oleksandra leaves clutching her belongings, save for a mobile phone she has decided not to redeem, the cashier, Oleksandr Stepanov, remarks from behind his hardened glass window that on a busy day the shop can get 50 people coming in to surrender mobile phones and household appliances.

Those who can afford it, he says, will come back to get their goods within two weeks. Almost half, he adds, will not, leaving Treasure to sell on the items from a back room with displays of phones and watches. People are struggling because of the war. They dont have money. Many have lost their jobs, he says, while prices have skyrocketed even for those who have jobs.

The scene in the pawn shop illustrates the crisis of growing poverty in Ukraine, the reality of which stands in contrast to the surface bustle of Kyivs busy restaurants and bars where it is often hard to get a table, with many living a precarious existence.

Poverty increased from 5.5% to 24.2% in Ukraine in 2022, pushing 7.1 million more people into poverty with the worst impact out of sight in rural villages, according to a recent report by the World Bank. With unemployment unofficially at 36% and inflation hitting 26.6% at the end of 2022, the institutions regional country director for eastern Europe, Arup Banerji, had warned that poverty could soar.

Behind his window in Treasure, Stepanov describes the hardships experienced even by those who have work. The price of everything has gone up. Food is the most expensive and then it is fuel for the car. Some things have gone up by 40-50%. Before the war my wife would go to the supermarket to shop and it would cost 200 hryvnia, now the same shop costs 400-500.

For those in the most difficult circumstances that has meant relying on handouts, no matter how small. In the town of Irpin just outside Kyiv, where heavy fighting took place at the beginning of the war as Russian armoured columns attempted to take the capital, the wrecked bridge that was used as an escape route by fleeing refugees is being rebuilt.

Elsewhere damaged buildings are being repaired, cranes and work crews busy. But while the ground war long ago receded from Irpin, the economic consequences of conflict are still being felt sharply in a town where the population has been swelled by internally displaced fleeing the frontlines in the south and east.

The most visible sign of the poverty crisis can be found at a protestant church in the town where priests have set up six distribution centres for free bread across the area, the busiest in Irpin itself. There, on most days, about 500 people can be found queuing for a free loaf, with tables and a tent also set up outside the centre on the day the Guardian visits, offering free secondhand shoes, clothes and childrens toys.

One resident of Irpin, Veronika Pravyk is looking through the clothes and trying to find free nappies and baby milk for her toddler, which are sometimes available but not today. She tells a typical story. Working in retail before the war, the 30-year-old lost her job and fled with her family to Spain for six months where she burned through her savings before returning to Ukraine in the autumn.

Im not working but my husband is, she says. But all the prices have gone up because of the war and my husbands salary buys less than it used to because of the falling exchange rate with the dollar. We still have to find the money to pay for our apartment and to heat it during this past winter. I just never imagined we would be living like this. Before the war we managed everything. Its very difficult and everyone is suffering the same.

In his office in the church, the pastor, Vitali Kolesnyk, who organised the bread distribution, which takes place five days a week, with his colleague Vasyli Ostriy, describes the situation in Irpin. One of the biggest private employers, he says, was a wood carving business with a workforce of 400 spread across three sites, but its factories were badly damaged during the fighting.

It relocated to western Ukraine and as a consequence the workers in Irpin were made redundant. A lot of people are ready to work for peanuts here, he says. The salaries are already less [than they were]. But people will do anything to earn some money.

While he says that some of those coming for bread are internally displaced, he offers an anecdote that describes how people are trying to manage their dwindling resources. You see some people come in cars for a free loaf of bread that would cost $1. That gives you an idea of how carefully people are watching every penny spend. We talk and pray with people about what is going on. They talk about the economy and tell us how hard it has become.

The economist Olena Bilan sees a deepening crisis, but says that without a huge package of financial support from the international community, including pledges worth $43bn (34bn), the situation would be worse.

Weve seen GDP decline by 30% in large part because Ukraine exports 80% of its goods through ports it no longer has access too. Weve had inflation of 26% again which could have been worse but peoples salaries have also been flat and the currency has devalued against the dollar by 20%. The biggest challenge is going to be how to create new jobs.

In Irpin, the long queue, snaking under the trees, to pick up loaves imprinted with the word victory is thinning. At one of the clothes stalls, a church volunteer, Larysa Kuzhel, 58, is not optimistic.

I think it is going to get more difficult especially for the younger people. The pensioners who you see here get support. Its only $50 a month but it is something. But it is the younger people who have lost their jobs who are really suffering.

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Pawn shops and bread queues: poverty grips Ukraine as war drags on - The Guardian