Category Archives: Ukraine

Gerhard Fritz Kurt Schrder

According to the report, Polands National Public Prosecutor's Office is investigating if Schrder may have used his position in the Russian energy sector to exert undue pressure on EU countries and Ukraine. In particular, theres concern that the former chancellor could have used his influence to help Russia browbeat the EU into refraining from supporting Ukraine militarily.

Read also: Duda comments on possible Russian missile crashed in Poland

Documents from the case indicate that Schrder did not sever ties with the Kremlin after the beginning of the full-scale invasion and continued to hold positions in Russian state energy companies until the European Parliament threatened him with personal sanctions.

Read also: Kremlin wants Russians to think big attacks on Ukraine are a victory, says Zelenskyy

On May 20, 2022, Schrder resigned from the board of directors of Rosneft, after the European Parliament announced the former official was facing personal sanctions.

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Poland investigates former German Chancellor Schrder's involvement in Russia's invasion of Ukraine - Yahoo News

Ukraine and Russia issued conflicting accounts of the situation on the front lines in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, where monthslong intense fighting for control of the city of Bakhmut continues, with Kyiv claiming advances while Moscow says its troops are holding the line.

RFE/RL's Live Briefing gives you all of the latest developments on Russia's full-scale invasion, Kyiv's counteroffensives, Western military aid, global reaction, and the plight of civilians. For all of RFE/RL's coverage of the war in Ukraine, click here.

Amid Kyiv's preparations for a long-anticipated counteroffensive, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said on Telegram on May 12 that Ukrainian forces had advanced 2 kilometers in the Bakhmut area without ceding any ground elsewhere to the Russians.

In turn, Russia's Defense Ministry said its troops had fought off several Ukrainian attempts to overrun their positions while pounding the Bakhmut-Avdiyivka-Maryinka front line that has seen the fiercest fighting over the past several months.

Neither side's claims could be independently verified.

On May 11, Russia denied reports of Ukrainian advances in several areas near Bakhmut, although such reports came from pro-Moscow military bloggers and from Kremlin-connected Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner mercenary group that has been deeply involved in the fight for the city.

Prigozhin went as far as to claim on May 11 that Ukraine's counteroffensive was already under way, though President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said more time is needed to prepare for any such move.

Nonetheless, Ukraine's preparations for a counteroffensive received an important boost on May 11 when Britain announced it was supplying long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, giving Kyiv the capability to hit Russian troops well behind the front lines. Storm Shadow missiles have a range of more than 250 kilometers.

But Kyiv has remained tight-lipped about its plans, with Zelenskiy saying his forces still lack enough Western weapons to succeed without suffering too many casualties.

In a message on Twitter on May 12, Zelenskiy said that while Ukraine's path ahead remained difficult, the country was "stronger now than at any other time of the confrontation with this empire," before ending with message by saying, "Our time is the time for victory!"

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Moscow Denies Ukraine's Claims Of Frontline Advances, Says It Has Repelled Attacks - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty

KYIV, May 11 (Reuters) - A Ukrainian brigade commander fighting in the ruins of Bakhmut said Russian mercenary forces have stepped up shelling and artillery attacks in recent days and were not facing a munitions shortage, despite its chief's claims to the contrary.

Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has complained for weeks that Russia's army is depriving his Wagner troops of enough ammunition to capture the eastern Ukrainian city, where months of fierce fighting have been dubbed the "meat grinder".

Reuters has not been able to independently confirm the situation on the ground there.

Ukrainian Colonel Roman Hryshchenko, the commander of Ukraine's 127th Territorial Defence Brigade, rejected Prigozhin's claims in an interview by video link.

"They haven't had anything even close to a munitions deficit. In the last few days, the intensity of shelling and rocket artillery has increased," Hryshchenko said.

He said Russian forces were conducting constant assaults in the city - and that Ukrainian troops were beating them back.

"The situation is difficult. The enemy is throwing a great deal of its forces at us, constant waves of assaults," he told Reuters late on Wednesday.

He and the rest of his brigade have inhabited the ruins of Bakhmut for nearly two months, he said.

He messaged shortly after the interview to say the positions where had spoken from had been set ablaze by a strike.

He said Russian forces were suffering casualties several times higher than his unit, but declined to give numbers.

"(Russia) is losing a great deal of its troops Bakhmut has already fulfilled its main task, and continues to fulfil it. Here, we are butchering the enemy's manpower," he said.

The former military prosecutor said only 30% of his brigade, which was originally recruited as a local territorial unit in March 2022 when their home city of Kharkiv was attacked, had previous combat experience but they were now seasoned soldiers.

"They (Russian forces) don't just retreat by themselves. It's a big, arduous task, and we need to work very hard to drive them out," he said. "For every metre, ten metres, section of trench, for every building, we need to try very hard."

He suggested that news from Bakhmut, of an unspecified nature, would be coming "soon", smiling but declining to expand.

"I ask everyone to have a little bit of patience, and you will see," he said.

Editing by Tom Balmforth and Alex Richardson

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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In Bakhmut's ruins, Ukraine says intensity of Wagner attacks growing - Reuters

A screenshot from aerial footage posted by Ukraine's 3rd Separate Assault Brigade on May 9, 2023. 3rd Separate Assault Brigade/Telegram

A Ukrainian battalion says it has chased Russian soldiers out of part of Bakhmut, sharing a video of fleeing troops along with claims that it retook around three square miles on Tuesday.

The graphic footage from the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade features various aerial scenes of troops running through fields and being chased down by armored vehicles, as well as on-the-ground footage of fighting and dead bodies.

The footage is intercut with clips from an earlier video by pro-Kremlin Wagner Group founder Yevegny Prigozhin, who said that a unit from Russia's traditional armed forces had abandoned its post in Bakhmut.

"Our army is fleeing," he said. "They are fleeing because the 72nd [Motorized Rifle] Brigade has thrown three square kilometers down the shitter, and we lost around 500 men there."

Ukrainian newspaper Ukrainska Pravda shared the video on Twitter:

The mercenary boss had also said the troops had "exposed a front almost two kilometres [1.2 miles] wide and 500 metres [0.3 miles] deep," per Ukrainska Pravda's translation.

Ukrainian forces seized on the tirade, writing in their post that Prigozhin's words were "true," while adding that they were "grateful" for the extra publicity he had provided.

The brigade said that the action took place over two days of fighting in the city's southwestern outskirts.

In a separate Telegram post, Azov Regiment founder Andrii Biletskyi said that an area around three square miles was "completely liberated from the Russian occupying forces," per Ukrainska Pravda's translation.

Biletskyi said that two companies within the Russian 72nd Brigade were "completely destroyed."

The Ukrainian brigade in question was formed out of Azov veterans.

The brigade also claimed to have destroyed anti-tank missiles, mortars and a BMP infantry fighting vehicle.

The claimed assault, which was also reported by Ukrainian state broadcaster Suspilne, has not been independently verified.

While Prigozhin said that it was a Russian Army unit that had failed to hold its ground, the Ukrainian brigade said that Wagner mercenaries were among the casualties.

As well as celebrating an apparent victory, the video capitalized on the latest flurry in the mercenary chief's own war of words with Russia's military leadership.

Prigozhin has complained of a lack of supplies and logistical support with increasing fury in recent months, and his private army remains the main force attempting to take the city.

In an expletive-ridden rant shared on Friday, Prigozhin said he would remove his troops altogether a threat he later walked back after receiving a promise of more artillery shells from the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Despite the claimed Ukrainian gains, earlier reports suggest that Russian troops still hold a significant portion of the city.

Prior to the 3rd Assault Brigade's videos, Prigozhin claimed that his troops had gained 420 feet of the city on Monday, and that Ukraine controlled less than a square mile, according to US think tank the Institute for the Study of War.

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Video: Russia soldiers appear to flee Bakhmut, cede ground to Ukraine - Business Insider

A repainted mural depicting the logo of Russia's Wagner Group on a wall in Belgrade, Serbia, on Jan. 19, 2023.

Darko Vojinovic | AP

The war in Ukraine looks to have created deep and lasting tensions between Russia's leadership in Moscow and its mercenary fighters on the ground, with acrimony between the two descending into openly hostile criticism and accusations of treachery this week.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia's Wagner Group, a private military company whose fighters have been engaged in intense battles in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine for months, could barely contain his rage on Tuesday when he lambasted Russia's military and political leadership, saying that promised supplies of ammunition for his mercenary fighters had still not been delivered.

The latest rant came after Prigozhin threatened last Saturday to withdraw his forces from Bakhmut if ammunition was not forthcoming but the next day he withdrew the threat, saying he had received a promise that ammunition was on its way.

By Tuesday, however, Prigozhin was back on social media platform Telegram, delivering a stinging rebuke to Moscow on Victory Day, when Russia commemorates the Soviet victory against Nazi Germany, over a lack of ammunition deliveries.

"On the 7th, we were promised that ammunition would be given. At night on the 8th, a combat order was received saying [we should be given] everything. Today is the 9th. On the 8th during the day there was a meeting at which they decided to only give 10% of what we requested," he said, adding that the Wagner Group had been "deceived."

Prigozhin said his mercenary forces, making up the bulk of Russians fighting to seize Bakhmut, would remain there for a "few more days" to see if the situation would change. He noted, however, that he had been warned in a combat order that if the Wagner Group left its positions in Bakhmut, "it would be regarded as treason against the motherland."

He thundered back that "if there is no ammunition, we will leave the positions and ask who is really cheating on their homeland. Apparently, the one (betraying the Motherland) is the person who signed it [the order]."

Prigozhin's very public criticism of Russia's military leadership this week has made it impossible for the Kremlin to ignore, despite its de-facto position being to remain tight-lipped about internal matters.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov was asked about the tense situation in Bakhmut on Wednesday and what he made of the Wagner Group's threats to withdraw from the town.

"Emotions are boiling over there," Peskov told a Bosnian Serb television channel ATV on Wednesday, in comments translated by Google.

"I will not mention anyone's last name, but I will say that, regardless of what they say and what statements they make, this is about the armed forces of the Russian Federation.These are all Russian forces.They are all the same forces, which always follow the same goal.We have no doubt that Artyomovsk [Russia's name for Bakhmut] will be brought under control, that it will be determined later," he said.

CNBC has contacted the Kremlin for further comment and is awaiting a response.

Among Prigozhin's usual tirades against Russia's military leadership was a more cryptic criticism that raised eyebrows among Russia watchers and led them to question whether he could have crossed the Rubicon and was now criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.

Prigozhin said Tuesday that while Russian soldiers were getting killed in Ukraine, the "happy grandpa thinks he's doing well" and warned that young Russians could soon discover the "happy grandfather" was hopeless.

"Instead of spending a shell and killing the enemy and saving the life of our soldier, our soldiers are getting killed, and the happy grandpa thinks he's doing well. If he turns out to be right, God bless everyone. What will the country do, our children, grandchildren who are the future of Russia, and how can we win this war if - by chance, and I'm just speculating here - it turns out that this grandfather is a complete ----head?," Prigozhin said.

The comments raised eyebrows among close followers of the Kremlin who speculated who the figure could be. Some noted it was likely to be either the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff,both of whom Prigozhin has openly criticized in the past, blasting their military tactics and overall strategy in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (C) speaks with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (R) and Chief of the Gen. Valery Gerasimov (L) after a meeting of the Russian Defence Ministry Board on December 21, 2022.

Mikhail Klimentyev | Afp | Getty Images

But analysts at the Institute for the Study of War said Tuesday that Prigozhin could have been leveling his criticism against Putin himself, saying Prigozhin had seized on the Victory Day holiday in Russia "as an opportunity to mock Putin and question his judgment," noting that Putin is often referred to as "grandfather" (or more specifically "Bunkernyi ded" or "bunker grandfather").

Still, even this thinly-veiled criticism would be a departure for Prigozhin, a figure who has refrained from public criticism of the president throughout the war and who is seen as benefitting from Putin's protection.

Not everyone is convinced Prigozhin was referring to Putin and, if not, it could save him from reprisals in Russia, where there is an almost zero tolerance policy toward criticism of the president.

After all, Prigozhin has been a supporter of Putin for many years and his position of relative safety on the periphery of the Russian establishment Prigozhin holds no formal position in the state but his Wagner Group's prominence has afforded him some influence and notoriety depends largely on Putin's largesse, making it more unlikely he would bite the hand that mostly feeds him.

"No, Prigozhin did not refer to Putin, it was just a clumsy statement and many observers decided that he [was] talking about Putin because it would be so attractive," Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and the founder of analysis firm R.Politik, told CNBC Thursday.

Businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin shows then-Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin his school lunch factory outside Saint Petersburg on September 20, 2010. Prigozhin was nicknamed "Putin's chef" because his company Concord catered for the Kremlin.

Alexey Druzhinin | Afp | Getty Images

She noted that Peskov's latest statement on the tensions in Bakhmut aimed to calm the situation down and to show that there is no political problem with Prigozhin, at least as far as the Kremlin was concerned.

"He shows that it's rather the situation that is incredibly challenging that provokes such emotions ... and emphasises that all forces are the same Russian forces fighting for the same goals he wants to show [that] for the Kremlin, be it Prigozhin or Gerasimov, they are all 'ours' even if they conflict," she said.

It appears on Thursday that the Kremlin believes the comments by Prigozhin this week were directed toward Russia's military leadership rather than the president himself.

When asked by reporters in Russia on Thursday what the Kremlin thought about Prigozhin's "critical statements ... against some generals during a special military operation," Russian news agency Interfax reported, the Kremlin's spokesman Peskov deflected the query, telling journalists: "I leave this question unanswered."

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The Ukraine war is driving a wedge between Moscow and its mercenaries and the Kremlin knows it - CNBC

WASHINGTON (AP) The U.S. Abrams tanks needed for training Ukrainian forces have arrived in Germany slightly ahead of schedule and are on their way to the Grafenwoehr Army base where the training will begin in two to three weeks, U.S. officials said Thursday.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee that the U.S. had moved a number of tanks over into theater so the Ukrainians could begin training on them. By the time they complete the training, expected to last about 10 weeks, the Abrams tanks currently being built for the Ukrainian forces will be ready, he said.

A U.S. official said the 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks needed for the training arrived at the port in Bremerhaven, Germany, last weekend and they will get to the base by early this coming week. Their arrival at Grafenwoehr is a couple of weeks ahead of the schedule that was mapped out when military leaders from around Europe and elsewhere met in Germany last month to discuss Ukraines needs for the war against Russia.

The tanks the U.S. is providing Ukraine are being built to its militarys specifications and will get to Ukraine by early fall, just as the troops are finished with their instruction. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to provide details of the delivery not publicly released.

The tank training will be the latest and most lethal new layer of combat instruction the U.S. is providing Ukraines troops to give them the best chance to overwhelm and punch through Russias battle lines. Over the past few months U.S. troops have trained more than 8,800 Ukrainians, including on how to use Stryker and Bradley fighting vehicles and M109 Paladins together on the battlefield. The Bradleys and Strykers are armored and armed vehicles used to ferry troops, and the Paladin is a self-propelled howitzer gun.

During Thursdays hearing, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, pressed Austin to move quickly to get the tanks into Ukrainian troops hands and onto the battlefield.

We are doing everything possible to accelerate the delivery of these tanks, and early fall is a projection, Austin said.

Collins and others noted the urgency of the fight in Ukraine, and she told Austin and Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, to be blunt about Ukraines needs. Defense leaders should not let budget concerns dissuade them from seeking more weapons if thats what Kyiv needs to be successful in a counteroffensive, said Collins, the ranking Republican on the panel.

It is critical that the administration provide Ukraine with what it needs in time to defend and take back its sovereign territory, she said. We expect the administration not to wait until the 11th hour if the Ukrainians seek more before the end of the fiscal year.

Sen. Lindsay Graham, R-S.C., noting the broader implications of the war, questioned Milley on the impact a Russian victory could have on China and its deliberations on whether to move to take the self-governing island of Taiwan, which Beijing claims.

I think that the Chinese are watching the war between Russia and Ukraine very carefully, Milley said, adding that if Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeds, China will learn certain lessons.

It may not be the single decisive point, but I think it will calculate into their decision-making process as to whether or not they attack to seize the island of Taiwan. So I think the outcome of Ukraine is critical to much broader issues than just Ukraine, Milley said.

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US Abrams tanks for training Ukrainian forces arrive in Germany early - Military Times

LONDON Britain has donated Storm Shadow cruise missiles to the Ukrainian air force in a move widely seen as a game changer in Kyivs ability to mount long-range strikes against invading Russian forces.

The decision to hand over a quantity of the MBDA-built cruise missiles was announced by British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace in a May 11 statement to lawmakers here.

Storm Shadow is a long-range, conventional, precision-strike capability, he said. It compliments the long-range systems already gifted, including HIMARS and Harpoon missiles, as well as Ukraines own Neptune cruise missiles and longer-range munitions already gifted.

The Anglo-French-developed Storm Shadow missile, known in France as Scalp-EG, has a range in excess of 250 kilometers, or 155 miles, and is particularly effective against hardened and buried targets, according to the manufacturer.

The donation of Storm Shadow missiles, many of which are already in Ukraine, means the British are the first nation to supply Kyiv with long range weapons.

Wallace described the governments decision as a calibrated, proportionate response to Russians escalation in its invasion of Ukraine.

These systems are not in the same league as the Russian AS-24 Killjoy hypersonic missile or Shahed Iranian one-way attack drones, or their Kalibr cruise missile with a range of over 2,000 km, roughly 7 times that of the Storm Shadow missile, Wallace said. Russia must recognize that their actions alone have led to such systems being provided to Ukraine.

Wallace said technical hurdles integrating the weapon onto Ukraines Soviet-era combat jets had been successfully overcome.

Having technically cleared the hurdles, and as everyone talks about an expected counter-offense, now is the right time to gift these to Ukraine, and they [Storm Shadows] are now going into or are in the country, he said.

The British have been signaling for months their intention to donate the long-range weapon to the Ukrainians, and confirmation of the move comes ahead of a long expected offensive by Kyiv against Russian forces occupying parts of the country.

Its part of a wider Western effort to strengthen Ukraines deep-strike capabilities which has recently seen a British-led effort to procure missiles or rockets with a range of 100-300km and payloads between 20kg and 490kg as part of an international funding arrangement.

The Storm Shadow weapon provides the Ukrainian air force with a substantial step up in capability, according to Douglas Barrie, senior air analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank in London.

It really provides Ukraine with a long-range strike capability it doesnt have, he said. Its in a different league compared with other weapons in Kyivs arsenal.

Storm Shadow has been used extensively by the Royal Air Force, first on Tornado strike jets and more recently the Typhoon combat jet.

The weapon was rushed into operational use against Iraq in 2003 even though it was not officially in service at the time. Since then it has been used in the Middle East and Libya.

Storm Shadow is the second sophisticated Western air-to-ground weapon known to have been supplied to Ukraine since the Russian invasion got underway in late February 2022.

Last year the U.S. integrated HARM AGM-88 missiles on Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-27 warplanes in a matter of weeks to be able to strike Russian air defenses located in Ukraine.

Andrew Chuter is the United Kingdom correspondent for Defense News.

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Ukraine gets British long-range missiles ahead of counteroffensive - Defense News

First Edition

In todays newsletter: After a long winter froze combat for months, Volodymyr Zelenskiys next move could be crucial to his countrys future

Fri 12 May 2023 02.00 EDT

Good morning. After the long winter months during which the frontlines in Ukraine remained largely frozen, one great question is hanging over the war: now that the conditions have changed, when will Kyiv order the counteroffensive that it views as crucial to driving the Russians out?

You will have seen that term, counteroffensive, in countless news stories over the last few weeks. But nobody knows exactly what it means. That is deliberate: Ukraines greatest success of the war so far came when it successfully fooled Moscow into thinking its September attack would come in the south, and not in the northern Kharkiv region. Surprises over timing and location are the most powerful tool at Ukraines disposal as it attempts to regain lost territory, break Russian supply lines, and bolster western support for the long war that likely lies ahead. But it is also extremely difficult to maintain.

There has been widespread anticipation that the attack could begin soon but yesterday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the BBC and other European broadcasters that more time was still needed to prepare.

While the UK became the first western country to provide long-range cruise missiles yesterday to boost the counteroffensives prospects, an ongoing lack of vital weapons could certainly mean that it could be delayed for weeks and yet some argue that Zelenskiys comments could be a ploy. Todays newsletter, with the Guardians defence editor Dan Sabbagh, is about what shape a new push might take and why Ukraine is desperate to manage expectations. Here are the headlines.

Pensions | The UK will have to bring forward the rise in the state pension age to 68 in the first couple of years of the next parliament, Mel Stride, the work and pensions secretary, has suggested. Stride said that there is a point in time at which the nettle will have to be grasped.

Labour | A female Labour MP has reported a shadow frontbench MP to the Metropolitan police, claiming he sexually assaulted her. The alleged incident is said to have taken place after a summer party in July 2021, but the MP decided to approach the Met in recent weeks.

Interest rates | The Bank of England raised interest rates by a quarter of a point to 4.5% as it forecast inflation would stay higher for longer than previously expected and the economy would perform more strongly. Read how the 12th successive increase in borrowing costs will affect you.

Torture | A detainee held at Guantnamo Bay has produced the most comprehensive account yet seen of the brutal torture techniques used by the CIA. Abu Zubaydah has created a series of 40 drawings that chronicle what he endured in CIA dark sites between 2002 and 2006 and at Guantnamo Bay.

Twitter | Twitter CEO, Elon Musk, has said that he has found a new chief executive for the platform. The billionaire did not reveal who would be taking the reins of the company but the Wall Street Journal reported that Linda Yaccarino, NBCUniversals head of advertising, is in talks to take up the role.

After the stalemate of winter, Ukraine has talked openly about a planned counteroffensive for months. We are preparing for it, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in April. It will happen. But yesterday, he suggested that despite endless speculation about the timing, his countrys forces were not yet ready. With [what we already have] we can go forward, and, I think, be successful, he said. But wed lose a lot of people. I think thats unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.

Ukrainian commanders have also said that Kyiv lacks vital weapons for the new push but there are also reasons to be sceptical. The Economists defence editor Shashank Joshi wrote on Twitter that Of course this is what youd say if the counter-offensive was about to begin, appending a shrug emoji. And it is always useful for Ukraine to increase pressure for more western military hardware.

Secrecy is very, very important, Dan Sabbagh said. Its essential to the success of what happens next. In Russian, its called maskirova the military concept of operational security and secrecy, but also active deception about what to expect. So we dont know exactly whats going to happen or when.

***

When could the Ukrainian counteroffensive happen?

The recent leak of Pentagon documents about the war mentioned a possible date of 30 April now in the past, obviously; defence minister Oleksii Reznikov recently said that the military was reaching the finishing line in preparations. While that could be misleading, it does seem to be likely in the spring, now the ground has hardened and that allows tanks to operate more flexibly, Dan said.

On Sunday, Czech president Petr Pavel appeared to suggest that the attack could be delayed, telling Daniel Boffey: Apparently, they still have a feeling that they do not have everything to successfully start an operation. That sounds aligned with Zelenskys interview. Pavel also said that he had urged Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal not to be pushed into a faster pace before they are fully prepared in a meeting last week.

While it is possible that the beginning of a major counteroffensive will be a big bang and very obvious, Dan said, theres also a possibility that it begins more gradually. Senior officials told CNN last night that shaping operations, strikes on key targets like weapons depots and artillery systems, were already underway but could last for many days or be used to sow confusion about Kyivs intentions. Either way, as well as the battlefield dynamic, there is also a political dynamic that creates pressure to begin soon, Dan said. There is a lot of support riding on providing evidence of a path to Ukrainian victory.

***

Where is it likely to be?

With a 900-mile frontline that divides occupied eastern territory roughly the size of Portugal from the rest of Ukraine, there are no shortage of possible sites for the attack. But there is a relatively brief list of options both viable enough and valuable enough to be plausible.

The route one option, and the most obvious strategic imperative, is to cut the land bridge to Crimea, Dan said. That would severely hamper supply lines to Russian troops in the rest of Ukraine, which could only run via the Kerch bridge (the same one that was damaged in a mysterious bombing in October) as well as being a humiliating blow for Putin. But the obvious counterpoint to that is that the geography is perfectly obvious to the Russians as well. They have been preparing for a possible attack and they are very well dug in.

Last week, the UKs Ministry of Defence said that Russia has constructed some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades. These two pictures give a sense of how quickly thats been happening, showing the development of a trench network near the village of Medvedivka, Crimea between 3 January and 11 February:

There are other options available. They could also try to attack Crimea by crossing the Dnieper River further west, Dan said. But the Dnieper is a formidable, wide river that has already hurt the Russians when they were forced to give up Kherson.

Also possible is a counterattack in Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region, where Russia has the upper hand after long and bitter fighting but Ukraine made its first significant gains in months this week. The head of the Wagner army, Yevgeny Prighozhin, claimed that the counteroffensive is taking place at full speed in Bakhmut, but has a history of comments designed to increase Moscows support for his forces there. The Kremlin has denied any major change in the area.

Bakhmut lacks strategic importance to either side, but its symbolic, Dan said. A breakthrough there would raise the question of what to do next: Youd be heading into territory which Russia has held since 2014 and where the welcome would not be as warm for the liberating forces, Dan said.

Finally, the Ukrainians could seek a breakthrough in the northern province of Luhansk more sparsely defended, and providing a route to Russian-held cities in the Donbas. But there is less obvious strategic value in that territory. And its quite close to Russia proper, so it would be easier to bring in reinforcements, Dan added.

***

Are Ukrainian forces ready?

After a long diplomatic fight, Ukraine finally secured the delivery of tanks from the US, Germany and other European countries in January. Last month, Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said that 230 tanks had been delivered along with more than 1,500 armoured vehicles and vast amounts of ammunition.

Is that enough? Theyd like 400 they have 200, Dan said. The West tends to provide enough to repel the Russians, but not enough to strike a decisive blow. Nonetheless, with Ukrainian tank crews trained on their new equipment, the new armour will be a crucial even if Ukraine wants more.

As for numbers: The leaked Pentagon documents talk about a tabletop exercise which suggested that Ukraine needs 12 brigades to make some progress as many as 60,000 troops and thats roughly what they have.

Against that numerical strength is the problem of newly enlisted soldiers who are less motivated or experienced. The people who wanted to fight signed up on 24 February last year, Dan said. By this stage, there is a real concern about the enthusiasm of recruits. Russia knows how to win wars with crappy, conscript armies of people who dont want to fight. Ukraine relies on highly motivated soldiers.

***

Could the counteroffensive be decisive?

Ukrainian politicians have recently been talking down the possibility of a stunning success: defence minister Oleksii Reznikov, for instance, last week told the Washington Post that The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world and that he feared emotional disappointment.

A more acid take on that same weight of western judgment came from presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak, who wrote on Twitter: Military observers argue whether the second season will be as successful as the first one. Political analysts warn that if viewership drops, investors will consider whether to renew the series for a third season.

The point of all this: the Ukrainians are keen to emphasise that it is possible for the advance to be strategically important without the kind of jaw-dropping impact of last autumns success in Kharkiv. Managing expectations in the US and Europe is crucial to ensuring that only incremental success is not seized on by sceptics as a reason to reduce military support. That is another important point of context for Zelenskiys comments.

The expectation is clearly that this will be a long war, Dan said. Barring some very unlikely circumstances, you should not expect this counteroffensive to be transformational. But that doesnt mean it may not provide significant breakthroughs, and shore up western capitals. Ukraine needs to win not necessarily decisively now, but to show that that is a real possibility.

When Moloko followed two smash hits with a single that had the bellowed chorus Ramesses! Colossus!, one reviewer asked: Did you not like being a pop star, then? But Risn Murphy (above) is still going, and still one of the most interesting pop stars around. Alexis Petridiss interview, ahead of the best album of her 30-year career, is just great. Archie

Earlier this month a Black man named Jordan Neely started shouting on a subway train in New York. I want food! Neely reportedly said, Im not taking no for an answer!. What ensued after sent shock waves across the city: a white veteran pinned Neely down and strangled him. Neely died. For the New Yorker (), Adam Iscoe examines the mental health system in New York and how its failing the citys many residents who are living with severe mental illness. Nimo

Time for my annual week-long obsession with exercise, writes Emma Brockes, in an extremely relatable and funny column about the weird psychological tricks those of us who arent natural meatheads play on ourselves to get to the gym. Archie

Fly-on-the-wall footage of counselling sessions has become a very popular sub-genre of TV and podcasting (I am not averse to some Esther Perel myself) and can be a useful way to destigmatise therapy. Eleanor Morgan writes thoughtfully about the pitfalls and positives of this highly intimate form of entertainment. Nimo

Eurovision, but make it even nerdier: the Guardians data team have an alarmingly exhaustive breakdown of what makes a winner: high energy pop in a major key by a solo artist with lyrics like love and la la. Sounds about right! Archie

Europa Conference League | West Ham United came from behind to win the first leg of their semi-final against AZ Alkmaar 2-1 thanks to a penalty from Sad Benrahma and Michail Antonios close-range finish. Manager David Moyes said: It doesnt matter how you do it really and the job is to get it done.

Tennis | Victoria Azarenka has described the Madrid Opens decision to cancel speeches after the womens doubles final as unacceptable. The tournament organisers have issued a public apology amid suggestions that the speeches were cancelled to avoid Azarenka and others criticising how the tournament treated its female players.

Football | After Burnleys remarkable march to the championship title this year, manager Vincent Kompany tells Andy Hunter that his new five-year contract is meant to signal his commitment to his players. Kompany, who has been linked to vacancies at Chelsea and Spurs, said: It is really difficult to find a good environment and really difficult to be in a place where you have achieved something.

The Guardian leads with UK sends long-range missiles to Ukraine in first for west. The Telegraph reports on a push to get those who left the workforce during the pandemic back into jobs, under the headline Go back to work and we can cut tax by 2p.

The Financial Times says BoE lifts rates and warns inflation target will not be reached until 2025. The Mirrors take is Interest rate pain: its not over yet, while the i says New UK inflation warning as Hunt admits key pledge may be broken. The Times has good news with Food prices on way back down.

The Sun has a full page story on the hosts of ITVs This Morning, with the headline Phil: Its not been easy for me or Holly. Finally, the Daily Mail leads with Dont say convicts, it upsets criminals.

Our critics roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

TVCity on Fire (Apple TV+)Josh Schwartz and Stephanie Savage have ruthlessly carved out the thriller that was embedded in Garth Risk Hallbergs baggy 2015 novel of the same name. They have also relocated the action from 1976 to 18 months after 9/11. An Inspector Calls-on-steroids look at the interconnectedness of people, this is a quality product from Apples reliable conveyor belt. Lucy Mangan

MusicOvermono Good LiesLike the Russell brothers 2022 EP Cash Romantic which lurched, pleasingly, between drumnbass, electronic abstraction, 2-step and trance Good Lies doesnt veer dramatically between sub-genres. Instead, it builds on the blueprint, distilling their wide-ranging tastes into a coherent sound that subtly incorporates a panoply of inspiration, where the most obvious influence is garage. Alexis Petridis

FilmThe Eight Mountains This rich, beautiful and inexpressibly sad film is about the friendship between men who cant talk about their feelings. It is set in the breathtaking Italian Alpine valley of Aosta. But the eight mountains of the title refers to the eight highest peaks of Nepal. This film climbs mountainous heights and rewards you with the opposite of vertigo: a sort of exaltation. Peter Bradshaw

PodcastEducating DaisyAudible, all episodes out nowDaisy May Coopers podcast is based on the fact that she hasnt read a book since doing GCSE English. Celebrity guests bring a novel, and hope to succeed in educating the host. Its a raucous, silly listen. Her guess at the subject of Tim Keys choice, The Diary of a Nobody? Curb Your Enthusiasm in Victorian times, where hes complaining about shoe shines, penny farthings and the workhouses. Alexi Duggins

Hosting Ukraines Eurovision party

On the eve of the Eurovision song contest finals, Hannah Moore travels to Liverpool to watch the rehearsals and hear from Ukrainians running stalls in Eurovision Village, while Chris West, the author of Eurovision! A History of Modern Europe Through the Worlds Greatest Song Contest, explains how politics always plays a big part in the event but this year is particularly poignant.

A bit of good news to remind you that the worlds not all bad

Gladys Kalema-Zikusoka was Ugandas first wildlife vet and works in animal conservation a sector dominated by white, often male, researchers. By 17, she was running the wildlife club at her high school she knew the area well and developed a great understanding of how social and economic conditions in the country affected the way animals were treated.

In the years since she graduated from the University of Londons Royal Veterinary College, Kalema-Zikusoka founded the wildlife charity Conservation Through Public Health (CTPH), the Gorilla Conservation Coffee social enterprise and is vice-president of the African Primatological Society. Her work is all about making sure that people and animals are able to live comfortably and harmoniously thats why tackling poverty and health inequality is a central part of her conservation efforts.

All these organisations do not keep her away from what she loves the most though: spending time out in the field with the gorillas and local communities. Im always there, she says. Thats what gives me energy. Im a very practical hands-on person.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

And finally, the Guardians puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day with plenty more on the Guardians Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until Monday.

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Friday briefing: What will Ukraines long-anticipated counteroffensive look like? - The Guardian

Residents stand next to a building that was damaged in the night, following Russian shelling in Komyshevakha, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Monday. Andriy Andriyenko/AP hide caption

Residents stand next to a building that was damaged in the night, following Russian shelling in Komyshevakha, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, Monday.

Here's a look ahead and a roundup of key developments from the past week.

Ukrainians are assessing the damage after waking up to missile strikes overnight in Odesa.

On Tuesday, Russia celebrates Victory Day, which commemorates the Soviet Union's part in defeating the Nazis in World War II. President Vladimir Putin traditionally attends a military parade in Moscow's Red Square. The day has taken on new symbolism with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Tuesday is also Europe Day which is supposed to celebrate peace and unity on the continent but is marked for a second year with war in Ukraine. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen plans to visit Kyiv to commemorate the day.

On Thursday, Russia's associates governing occupied territories of eastern Ukraine in Donetsk and Luhansk mark the anniversary of self-proclaimed independence from Ukraine, which nobody else recognized until Putin declared recognition of the two regions as "republics" in February 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could be planning to go to Germany the coming weekend, say German news reports. Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine are winners of the Charlemagne Prize to be awarded in Aachen, Germany, on Sunday.

The Eurovision Song Contest finale is on Saturday. It's supposed to take place in the country of the previous winning group but that was Ukraine, and organizers instead chose to hold the event in Liverpool, England. It didn't stop Ukrainian champs Kalush Orchestra from kicking off the party last week.

Delegates from Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the United Nations could be meeting this week to discuss extending the deal allowing grain and other farm goods to ship from Black Sea ports.

On Sunday, Turkey has a general election. A popular opposition candidate has pledged to align the country closer to the European Union.

Russia said it shot down two drones over the Kremlin, alleging a Ukrainian attempt to kill Putin. Ukraine's government denied it. Moscow later accused Washington of masterminding the alleged attack, which the United States denied.

Ukraine said it downed a Russian hypersonic missile over Kyiv using American Patriot defense systems. It was the first known time Ukraine has intercepted this type of missile, which posed a challenge to the country's defenses particularly before Patriot systems arrived in April.

President Zelenskyy visited Finland and the Netherlands. In Helsinki, he took part in a Nordic-Ukrainian summit with leaders of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. In the Netherlands, he met with the Dutch prime minister and visited the Hague, where he called for a special tribunal to try Russian leaders.

The president's wife, Olena Zelenska, and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal attended the coronation of King Charles III, while President Zelenskyy and other officials sent congratulations and thanks for the United Kingdom's strong support during the war. In London, Zelenska met with Jill Biden, the U.S. first lady, who said of a photo of the two alongside the U.K.'s Catherine, Princess of Wales: "We stand with Ukraine." Russian leaders were reportedly not invited to the coronation.

More than 1,600 residents were evacuated from around Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, a Moscow-installed official in the region said. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said the situation at the plant is "increasingly unpredictable and potentially dangerous" as shelling in the region continues.

The White House estimated more than 20,000 Russian troops were killed and 80,000 were wounded in Ukraine since December, according to John Kirby, a National Security Council spokesperson. He did not cite a recent estimate for Ukrainian troop losses. NPR couldn't verify casualties for either side. In terms of noncombatants, U.N. human rights workers have been able to verify more than 8,000 civilians killed since the large-scale invasion over a year ago, but they believe the full toll is considerably higher.

Ukraine says its newly fielded U.S. Patriot system downed a Russian hypersonic missile.

Ukraine buries a "brave son" from America.

On State of Ukraine podcast: A top Ukrainian official on the coming counter-offensive and Russia's future.

Russia alleges Ukraine tried to attack the Kremlin in a Putin assassination attempt.

Russia's war in Ukraine is changing the world: See our report on its ripple effects in all corners of the globe.

You can read past recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR's coverage here. Also, listen and subscribe to NPR's State of Ukraine podcast for updates throughout the day.

Link:

Latest on Ukraine: Russia will mark WWII Victory Day, as Ukraine ... - NPR

Yevgeny Prigozhin says casualties in Bakhmut would be five times fewer if we had more ammunition.

The head of Russias Wagner mercenary force threatens to withdraw his troops from the key battle for Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine as casualty rates mount while Ukraines military authorities say Russian forces have been unable to cut their supply routes to the front-line city.

Losses in Bakhmut are five times higher than necessary because of a lack of artillery ammunition, Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview with Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov published on Saturday.

Every day we have stacks of thousands of bodies that we put in coffins and send home, Prigozhin said.

Prigozhin said he has written to Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu asking for ammunition as soon as possible.

If the ammunition deficit is not replenished, we are forced in order not to run like cowardly rats afterwards to either withdraw or die, he said.

The withdrawal of some fighters from Bakhmut would be likely, but he warned that this would mean the Russian front line would collapse elsewhere.

In an audio statement published on the Telegram messaging app account of his press service on Saturday evening, the Wagner boss said he had lost 94 fighters due to a lack of ammunition.

It would have been five times fewer if we had more ammunition, said Prigozhin, who has previously accused Russias regular armed forces of not giving his men the ammunition they need. He has also accused Russias top brass of betrayal.

A Ukrainian military spokesperson said on Saturday that Russian forces have been unable to cut off its supply lines to the Ukrainian defenders of Bakhmut.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think tank, reported the Wagner chief as stating that his forces have received 800 of the 4,000 shells per day that they had requested from Russias Ministry of Defence.

Prigozhin also said the long-awaited counteroffensive by Ukraine will begin before May 15 and he lamented that Russian forces are not hurrying to prepare for the expected onslaught, according to the institute.

Prigozhins threat to withdraw from Bakhmut may also indicate that Prigozhin fears that the Russian positions in Bakhmuts rear are vulnerable to counterattacks, the institute said.

Russian forces have been trying for 10 months to punch their way into the shattered remains of what was once a city of 70,000. The battle of attrition for Bakhmut has become known as the meat grinder due to its high casualty rates.

For several weeks, the Russians have been talking about seizing the road of life as well as about constant fire control over it, Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukrainian troops in the east, said in an interview with the local news website Dzerkalo Tyzhnia.

Yes, it is really difficult there, [but] the defence forces have not allowed the Russians to cut off our logistics, he said.

The road of life is a vital route between ruined Bakhmut and the nearby town of Chasiv Yar to the west, a distance of just more than 17km (10 miles).

The supply of provisions, weapons and ammunition is secured, Ukrainian forces were maintaining their positions along the road and engineers had already laid new roads to Bakhmut, Cherevatyi said.

All this allows us to continue holding Bakhmut, he said.

If Bakhmut fell, Chasiv Yar would probably be next to come under Russian attack, according to military analysts, although the city is on higher ground and Ukrainian forces are believed to have built defensive fortifications nearby.

Ukraine has pledged to defend Bakhmut, a city Russia sees as a stepping stone to attack other Ukrainian areas.

The rest is here:

Russias Wagner mercenary force boss threatens Bakhmut withdrawal - Al Jazeera English