Category Archives: Transhuman News

(Photo by iStock/Chinnapong)

The figures on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investment weve been seeing over the last few years are substantial. According to the US SIF Foundation, $12 trillion in assets under management using ESG strategies at the beginning of 2018 grew to $17.1 trillion by the beginning of 2020, an increase of 42 percent. Bloomberg Intelligence reports ESG assets at $35 trillion in 2020, up from $30.6 trillion in 2018 and $22.8 trillion in 2016, accounting for one-third of total global assets under management. The same study holds that by 2025 ESG assets are on track to exceed $50 trillion.

These are big numbers, and they are already bearing dividends: many businesses are starting to get environmental action rightthe E of ESGand through paying attention to executive compensation and getting more diversity on boards, many companies are also starting to get governance right, the G of ESG. Environmental impact is relatively easy to measure: carbon emissions, deforestation, waste management, and water usage are all tangible factors lending themselves to quantitative assessment. Governance matters too can be held to account by quantifying executive pay, representation of non-white, non-male board members, political contributions, and large-scale lawsuits, all of which can be reduced to numbers.

But what about the S, or the social component? By comparison, the social component consists of much more qualitative factors, things like employee gender and diversity, data security, customer satisfaction, human rights, and fair labor practices at home and abroad. Because these more amorphous factors are a lot harder to measure in numbers, the S factor is always prone to falling out of ESG considerations. For this reason, it is all the more important to emphasize social factors that are measurable, such as public health. While Public Health might be implicit in Social, it is not explicit. Therefore, by attaching an H for Health and broadening the mandate to ESHG, well come closer to a more inclusive form of capitalism, one that places equal emphasis on causing human capital to flourish as it does on financial capital.

The pandemic has not only exposed health inequalities that run from school to community to the workplace. Health should be of immediate importance to business: Public Health is analogous to climate in that a businesss activities will have health impacts, positive or negative, across three broad areas: employees, customers/consumers, and the communities in which it operates. The right actions can reduce absenteeism due to sickness while increasing productivity and enabling better management of risks of regulatory, taxation, and litigation risks.

Even before the pandemicas Sir Michael Marmots groundbreaking 2010 study Fair Society, Healthy Lives (and his 2021 follow-up, Build Back Fairer demonstratehealth not only stopped improving over the last decade, but health inequalities increased, and life expectancies for the poorest people went down. Marmot has identified six areas that are essential to meeting the health inequality and life expectancy challenge head on: giving every child the best start in life; education and lifelong learning; employment and working conditions; ensuring that everyone has at least the minimum income necessary for a healthy life; healthy and sustainable places in which to live and work, including housing; and taking a social determinants (data-based) approach to prevention.

The UK is in a bit of a bubble with health initiatives, compared with the United Stateswe have the NHS, which is a public health system, whereas, as pointed out in Michael Lewiss searing book on the pandemic, The Premonition, the United States. does not. But various surveys show that roughly two-thirds of the American population is stressed over the cost of health insurance and health care in general. An equivalent to Marmot as a US spokesperson might be Harvard professor David Sinclair, an expert on longevity, who believes that as population growth begins to slow, saving lives and making people more productive by helping them to live healthier longer is a massive economic benefit for society. He also points out that currently, the rich are investing in these new longevity therapies, and they are the ones who benefit. But he hopes to democratize his findings to include a broader swath of society.

Can we come up with compelling alternatives that might reduce the strain on the system? We certainly must try new ideas, because hitherto, the old ideas are only working for the select few. Most of these areas can be addressed by deep, long-term investment. But as Professor Marmot and many others have pointed out, government funding alone isnt going to get things done. Business must step in. Companies can play a role in broadly improving public health by such means as rethinking their products, investing in health tech projects, developing programs and policies that promote health both within their companies and externally. By setting frameworks around hot-button industries and influencing ESHG outcomes, asset managers will pre-empt both stakeholder and regulatory pressure.

Its an idea as old as Adam Smith that its in the self-interest of an insurance company for people to live out their lives healthier and longer. And while were waiting for Dr. Sinclairs longevity practices to find a wider audience, companies can start putting the trillions of dollars they are sitting on, earning nominal interest, to work. It is nothing if not enlightened self-interest for businesses to help improve the health of many more peoplenot only their own employees but those in the community that both need and support a company or consume its goods and services. But getting to a more virtuous cycle with public health is going to take action and vision, not to mention putting the necessary investment on the line, to do it.

In my role as part of a council of businesses working with the U.K. Prime Minister on Building Back Better, and even prior to that, my company has taken on several health-first projects, including making direct investments in health science and tech research, community and elder health, and supporting a global challenge that elicited tech-driven solutions to the next pandemic. These initiatives have a few principles in common, which are worth mentioning here, as the goal is to get many more businesses and investors, along with government, thinking this wayin the United States, too:

1. Invest in health versus remediation. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cureand that also goes for investing in health. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) emphasizes preventive health measures such as vaccinations, altering risky behaviors, and banning substances known to be associated with a disease or health condition. Businesses can invest and become involved in these measures and others that will have broad benefits, such as building wellness and mental health in the workplace. Initiatives could take the form of healthier cafeteria food, gym memberships, well-being services and incentives, and better working conditions. There are greater gains to be made through early intervention and prevention of physical and mental health issues, than when a situation requires controlling absenteeism or limiting healthcare costs. Recent research suggests that CEOs are starting to pay attention and make the necessary investments.

2. Keep it local. Any health-related investment comes down to people, to individuals, and to a community. While health is certainly a global issue, governments and businesses alike must start investing far more meaningfully in it at the local level. By partnering with a local university or identifying a specific community need for, say, a health technology or healthier housing, businesses can become involved in a clear and tangible way, which is why were working with university research facilities in Edinburgh, Newcastle, and other local venues on initiatives to develop new models for delivering elder care, especially to facilitate aging in place rather than in institutions. This is a multi-disciplinary approach across medicine, engineering, data science and architecture.

3. Build a model that has measurable impact. Outcomes should not only be felt by the recipients of health investments but observable to the investors. To achieve this, any successful health initiative needs to be based on a model that is observable and fact-based. One example is the way business and research so speedily mobilized to get billions of vaccinations made and distributed for the pandemic. But while the pandemic was a relative snapshot, over two years, the challenge is greater when results are delivered over decades. This may partly explain low investment in dementia and Alzheimers, relative to the proportion of the population at risk. There are many models to emulate, but to be successful from a business standpoint, they need trackable metrics.

4. Harness the COVID-19 disruption to think deeply about workplace changes. Required vaccination, changes in building management with testing for COVID-19and other safety measures, and remote working have touched all businesses as well as everyone connected to them. Many people are missing the support systems and wellness components found in many workplaces as they continue to work remotely. Businesses should educate employees about health, make products and packaging healthier, and make health available. And as Professor Marmot points out in Fair Society, Healthy Lives, the social gradient on health inequalities is reflected in the social gradient on educational attainment, employment, income, quality of neighborhood. Employees need to make a living wage. There is a close correlation between social/income inequality and health inequality. While its understood that around 20 percent of an individuals health outcomes are genetic, the other 80 percent is environmental and predicated by economic success: the poorest decile have significantly lower healthy life expectancy, some twenty years less, than the wealthiest decile.

5. Gig workers need a framework that includes healthcare and retirement. This is extremely important, as the number of workers who dont have employers or regular workplaces keeps risingcurrently more than a third (36 percent) of USworkers are part of the gig economy, and by 2027 more than half will be.With no health benefits and often little in the way of retirement plan, these workers represent a special challenge for health investing. Marmots studies show that poverty breeds ill health; you can have happier, healthier employees by paying them better.

6. Hold companies and investees accountable. Impact investing on the ESHG level is about investing in companies. A strong condition for including companies in the ESG roster is their stance to providing access to proper healthcare or healthcare insurance to their workers. ESHG-minded Investors can leverage their financial power by divesting from companies that arent doing healthy business. Companies need to understand that good health is good business.

This begins with a recognition that many products and outputs negatively influence health, and so need to be redesigned to improve health outcomes. Think about health as we do about climatethe health of any organizations workforce could be viewed similarly to its direct greenhouse gas emissions.

Health costs from negative corporate activity are often borne by the consumers or taxpayers. So conversely, companies can proactively engage to improve public health by self-regulating before regulators impose product bans or punitive taxation. For example, rethink sourcing of materials or change ingredients to promote rather than impair customers health. Bottom line, companies can look up and down their value chains and identify points where a positive health outcome could replace a negative one.

7. Corporate taxes low? Reinvest. How can businesses be made responsible for a wider swath of society that goes beyond their employees? Some portion of taxes are allocated to public health, but the corporate tax rate is the lowest its ever been (21 percent) and many of the wealthiest individuals have devised ways of legally minimizing their tax burden.With all of these funds stashed away at low interest rate returns or negative gains, wouldnt it be better to put this money to work in high return investments that promote public health?

While none of these ideas will get us there alone, the aggregate will move the needle. All positive, innovative change can be said to be an outcome of much thought and action that came before it. We live in a moment that calls for deep change in the way we invest in and care for our communities and our environment. Asset managers who have done so much to bring ESG to the fore can add this new mandate. Lets not waste this opportunity.

Read more stories by Nigel Wilson.

More:
Adding Public Health to ESG - Stanford Social Innovation Review

DURHAM, N.C.

Mike Krzyzewskis last order to a Duke basketball player at Cameron Indoor Stadium was telling guard Jeremy Roach to stop fouling North Carolina with 22.8 seconds left.

No more, Coach K said.

The next time down, Dukes Wendell Moore Jr. fouled again, prolonging one of the most shocking losses of his coachs storied career.

None of it made any sense. Unranked North Carolina 94, No. 4 Duke 81. On this night. As unbelievable as the 40 minutes were that led to that score, the next 15 would be even more surreal.

Coach K and his players went back to the locker room, leaving the faithful with their sad tears. The arena remained full because of the promised postgame celebration, but the spirit that has flowed within these rafters for four decades was now gutted.

Inside the Duke locker room, Coach K was showing his distaste to a young group of Blue Devils that will never live this down. Outside in Cameron, We Are Family was blaring from the speakers, but nobody was singing along. Hours earlier, it had been the voices of these same 9,000 souls belting out the national anthem in unison that had cut right through Krzyzewskis hope that he would keep his emotions in check. He wanted to stay in character, he said, but, just the music, you start crying.

Now Coach K was walking back into the building, holding his wife Mickies hand. He formed two huddles, one with Mickie and their three daughters, the other with his 10 grandchildren.

Then he decided to do his own thing. It was not in the program for him to go take the microphone at half-court.

We love you! a fan yelled.

No, no, I dont love me right now, he said, his voice hoarse. Im sorry about this afternoon.

They did not accept his apology.

No, no, NO, please everyone be quiet! he pleaded, as if truly surrounded by trusted loved ones. Let me just say, its unacceptable. Today was unacceptable, but the season has been very acceptable.

The season isnt over, alright?

Coach K said earlier this week that sports is the best reality TV, that he was going to just let Saturday happen and see where it would lead him. Indeed, this unscripted outburst, HIS internal disgust pouring out in public on a stage that was meant to glorify him, was an undeniably real look into the man some claim is the greatest college basketball coach of all time (like the Lakers LeBron James, who appeared on the pregame video, saying, The GOAT).

In retrospect, maybe it shouldnt have been so surprising that Coach Ks young men, playing with the weight of 42 years on their 18-to-22-year-old shoulders, couldnt complete the task.

We can all be beaten by human nature, Coach K would say later. The ones who do it really well have a very high winning percentage against human nature.

John Woodens UCLA teams had a pretty good record against our worst impulses too.

There is no way to measure Coach Ks immeasurable impact on college basketball and American sporting culture as a whole without bringing up Wooden, who remains the GOAT inside many hearts and minds, especially in Southern California. A fresh point of comparison Saturday, given the events in Durham, was how they handled their respective retirements.

For a revered coach who has stayed around long enough to morph into a legend walking among mortals, there is no perfect way to leave the stage to someone else.

Wooden battled within himself throughout the spring of 1975 about when to tell his players. By the time the Final Four came around, rumors of his retirement were beginning to swirl, and the one thing he knew for sure was that he didnt want them finding out from a newspaper.

UCLA basketball coach John Wooden celebrates with Sidney Wicks and other UCLA players after defeating Villanova for the 1971 NCAA title at the Houston Astrodome.

(AP)

To begin the week, he told his two seniors, who admirably kept the secret. And, after UCLA beat Louisville 75-74 in the national semifinal on a last-second shot in overtime by Richard Washington, Wooden decided it was time to tell the rest.

Im bowing out, the 64-year-old said, his words met by silence in a locker room that normally would have been raucously celebrating advancing to Mondays final.

Wooden could have told the team at halftime when the Bruins were trailing by four points, but said, I didnt want to because I wouldnt want to use a thing like that to try to hype up a team. I dont believe in using artificial means like that.

But he was fine to see if the emotional jolt would motivate his team against Kentucky. Of course it did, and the Bruins beat the Wildcats 92-85 for their 10th national championship in 12 seasons, sending The Man as they called Wooden fittingly out on top.

By design, Wooden did not receive a seasons worth of ceremonial sendoffs, but in some small way, maybe the sports zealots were cheated a bit by not being able to say a more proper goodbye. He was suddenly gone, and the next generation of hungry younger coaches like North Carolinas Dean Smith and Indianas Bob Knight were eager to take over.

The greatest threat to Woodens throne, however, remained anonymous.

That spring, as Wooden took his first steps toward a normal life with his wife, Nell, the United States Military Academy quietly hired a 28-year-old retired Army captain named Mike Krzyzewski to be its basketball coach.

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, second from left, stands with his former players during a pregame ceremony Saturday.

(Gerry Broome / Associated Press)

Nearly half a century later, hundreds of Duke students are walking toward the thumping heart of their campus, almost in a trance, as dark falls on Durham. It is Friday night, the eve of the end, before Coach Ks Blue Devils host North Carolina one last time.

It is tradition for Krzyzewski to welcome the students to Cameron the night before the Carolina game to listen to him speak. This time, dozens of the 96 former players who are in town are there, too, soaking up as much of their coach as they can in his final hours.

Sporting a blue Duke quarter-zip shirt and gray pants, Coach K takes the microphone and begins by covering the basics congratulating his team for its ACC regular season title and laying out his expectations for Saturday.

I want to ask you to make tomorrow night all about Duke, he says. When the other team is introduced, do not say, You suck.

BUT THEY DO! a young man blurts out. The kids laugh.

Dont say it. Im asking you not to, Krzyzewski says. Dont pay attention to them. Dont have signs that bring up stupid I mean, theyre probably smart things. Only Duke.

This is the type of moment that made Coach K a beloved figure in the early 1990s as his clean-cut Blue Devils took down Jerry Tarkanians UNLV Runnin Rebels, who were already in the NCAA infractions committees crosshairs, and Michigans famed Fab Five, which would find their own NCAA reckoning down the road.

Eventually, though, Coach Ks holier-than-thou vibe likely because fans got so tired of the Blue Devils consistent winning and ESPNs love affair with all things Duke solicited more eye rolls than appreciation, especially as Krzyzewski began to build his teams with the same one-and-done NBA talents as John Calipari at Kentucky.

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski takes a bow while being recognized during a pregame ceremony Saturday.

(Gerry Broome / Associated Press)

In the last days before name, image and likeness was approved by NCAA rules, did a guy like Zion Williamson really choose to play at Duke without some kind of improper inducement behind the scenes? The critics had good reason to be dubious.

Over four decades in Durham, Coach K had certainly spanned the eras like no other coach had and, despite everything that had changed around him, held tightly to the romantic ideals that defined college basketball back when Krzyzewskis program grabbed the nations imagination.

Addressing the students, he cant help but want them to know that Duke is still different.

College basketball has changed a lot, he says. Last spring, we had four players coming back, and we had four recruits coming in, and I met with all eight of those guys, and I said, Im not accepting any transfers except for two grad transfers. You can have as many as 13 guys, but Im not taking anybody. Youre my guys.

Coach K also wants the students to know how his retirement came to be. It started with a conversation he and Mickie had in Las Vegas. Then they convened with their three daughters who make up the familys starting five, as they call it. The plan was now in place, and one of the best parts of this year was getting to tell his grandson, Michael Savarino, a Duke walk-on, that he had earned a scholarship.

Hes just balling his eyes out, and Im starting to cry too, Coach K says. I knew then what I wanted this season to be. I wanted to be so close to my players that they all felt that way. I can tell you this has been one of the closest teams that Ive coached. I love my team.

Surrounded by former players, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski applauds while being recognized before Sundays game against North Carolina.

(Gerry Broome / Associated Press)

The students can feel his emotion, and its not even Saturday yet. He tells them that they have given him energy all these years, keeping him young. He tells them this is his Senior Night, and together they give him an awww.

Theres a cheer where people say, This is our house, Coach K says. But for us, this is not our house. This is our home. What does that mean to all of you? It means that this is your home forever. Theres going to be a time when youve graduated, youre making a lot of money, hopefully following your heart, and youre going to come back here. Well, its your home.

And thats the difference between Cameron and every other place. Its yours. When we play tomorrow night, cheer like its your home.

Saturday, the students would have to be willing to share their space too. Over the course of this season, this ticket became such a bucket list item among Duke fans and general appreciators of sport that the average ticket price soared to more than $5,000.

One woman brought a sign that said, I spent my kids inheritance to be here. Theres a decent chance she wasnt joking.

The sideline seats behind the team benches had the feel of a Lakers game. Jerry Seinfeld sat next to NBA Commissioner Adam Silver. Seinfeld was wearing earplugs, a sure sign that the Cameron Crazies were doing their job just fine (but also totally on brand for the persnickety comedian). Pro golfer Justin Thomas sat close to Warriors general manager Bob Myers. Then, of course, there was Dukes star-studded cast of former players Grant Hill, Christian Laettner, JJ Redick, Shane Battier, Carlos Boozer, Grayson Allen the list went on and on.

Actor and comedian Jerry Seinfeld, center, sits next to NBA Commissioner Adam Silver, right, before Dukes game against North Carolina.

(Chris Seward / Associated Press)

When Coach K took the court for pregame, nearly 100 of his Formers, as he calls them, formed a column around him from the locker room to half-court. They all wore white pullovers with a blue K on their right breast.

Theyre all friends, Coach K would say. Our lives have intertwined, so you see them and you try to not get into a story about each one.

The game simply fell apart for the Blue Devils late. They couldnt do anything right on both ends of the floor. Even a lesser North Carolina team like this years group wasnt going to let Duke off the hook. And yet, the fans were still waiting for them afterward inside Cameron, yearning to love them.

How could Coach K leave all of this? Well, easy. It was just the right time. Hes already been thinking about getting a new dog.

After John Woodens sudden exit, it was natural to wonder if there would ever be another like him.

If youre into purely counting national championships Coach K has five to Woodens 10 then the answer remains no and will likely remain so into eternity.

But if youre charting Krzyzewskis overall impact on the game over 47 years, how much the countrys love or hate of one coach and his program colored the experience of college basketball, theres at least an argument that Wooden has been eclipsed by Coach K as a towering figure.

Its hard to argue with 10 championships in 12 years. That was unprecedented and impossible to duplicate, says ESPN analyst Jay Bilas, who played at Duke from 1982 to 1986. But I think if you stretched it out over Woodens entire career, you can make the argument that Coach K had a higher level of success over a more extended period. His first time at No. 1 was my senior year in 1986, and he was No. 1 this year. Hes been No. 1 in every decade.

For the last 75 years, one of John Wooden or Mike Krzyzewski has been manning a college basketball sideline. Could there really be another coach waiting in the wings that could captivate like them, or is Coach K the last of the lions?

Bobby Hurley, who along with Laettner was one of the faces of Dukes back-to-back national title run, followed Coach K into coaching as many of his players have. Every day at Arizona State, Hurley is trying to build something special, something his mentor would be proud of, but its just hard to replicate these days.

It certainly is a different world, Hurley says, just in terms of the transfer portal and now NIL. I played for my dad, who was a very hard-nosed disciplinarian type coach, then Coach K, who was very good at building connections with his players but was also very hard on you. I think you have to reach this generation a little different and be very creative in how you coach. To me, its more of a partnership with how I view coaching my team, getting through to them in a different way than maybe coaches were able to 20-30 years ago.

Says Bilas, Its pro basketball, with the amenities they have, the facilities, the travel. Theyre pro players, and now they can make money. Theyre going to be paid at some point in the very near future by their institutions. Players can transfer now without penalty. Players now have rights they were denied before, and you cant treat them the way you used to be able to treat them.

In this long overdue time of player empowerment, the coachs power has been minimized in every place but his pocketbook.

The money has gone up which is awesome, but the jobs become 365, 24/7, UCLA coach Mick Cronin says. Coach Wooden used to write guys letters [to recruits]. Hed write a letter to guys and then he saw them again in September. Dean Smith lived in the Outer Banks in the summer and the only time he went back to Chapel Hill was to run his camps.

Right now, my daughter is asking me about vacation and Im looking at AAU weekends in April, high school tournaments in June and the July recruiting calendar. And you dont know whos going pro. You cant plan a vacation because you just dont know, and nobody feels sorry for us, nor should they, because of the money we make. But it all leads to people throwing up the white flag at some point.

Longevity, then, will be the biggest issue going forward.

Wooden made $32,500 his last year. I think Coach K made that during the course of this conversation, says CBS Sports analyst Seth Davis, who wrote Wooden: A Coachs Life.

The conversations I have with coaches now are less interviews and more like therapy. They say never say never, but it is hard to imagine somebody doing again what Mike Krzyzewski did.

Clearly, Coach K could not imagine himself doing it. Last year, it was North Carolinas Roy Williams who could not muster the energy for it any longer.

This week, Krzyzewski sounded absolutely fed up with the state of college basketball and disappointed that he hadnt been able to leave the game in a better place for the next generation of coaches.

I dont even know who you talk to about it, he says. Its like a bunch of ships out there, but where do you port, where do you dock? Its a troubling time, really. Im probably not on top of it like I would normally be. To be quite frank, I dont want to think about it anymore. Its been very frustrating, kind of a failing in my time, that we were unable to have a bigger influence, me and my brothers in coaching.

Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski speaks to the crowd following the teams 94-81 loss to North Carolina on Saturday.

(Gerry Broome / Associated Press)

After his apology ad-lib to kick off the postgame ceremony, Coach K got back on script for the rest of the night. But with a crushing loss fresh, he still wanted to make sure none of the Formers in particular left with any bigger worries about the state of their program.

The brotherhood, its not going to go away, he said. We have a great succession plan.

Jon Scheyer, one of the leaders from Dukes 2010 national championship team and a current assistant coach, will be entrusted with the kingdom.

The pressure will be incalculably high, following this guy.

We didnt play well. And there are times when you didnt either, Coach K reminded them, getting some laughs.

Hopefully today for this program right now is a great learning experience. First of all, look what youre a part of. Are you kidding me? We need to fight for Duke, we need to fight for the brotherhood, and we need to fight with all our might the rest of this season.

Then Ill be ready to get the hell out of here.

See more here:
Mike Krzyzewski shows the fire that sent him into John Woodens orbit - Los Angeles Times

Can Ukraine weaponise time? As long as the will to fight exists, the countrys soldiers and citizens can hope to wear down, even to repulse, the Russian invaders. But their dilemma is a terrible one. As Vladimir Putins bombardments grow more barbarous and indiscriminate, the human cost of resistance is rising daily. If they hold on, will the western powers belatedly come to their rescue?

Time does not favour Russias president. Casualties are increasing. His Nazi-style military blitzkrieg didnt work. His conscripts are reportedly demoralised, his war machine may bog down. His hubris is destroying Russias economy. Protests at home reflect a new political vulnerability. Putin is being tracked by war crimes prosecutors in The Hague.

For any rational leader, an immediate ceasefire, accompanied by a bogus claim of victory, would be an obvious way out. But logic and reason play no part in Putins thinking. This catastrophe recalls Iraq in 2003. How could anyone, however delusional, possibly believe a full-scale invasion was a good idea? The man Donald Trump calls a genius turns out to be really stupid.

To avoid defeat to eventually win Ukrainian resistance forces will need the wests sustained, long-term military, logistical, financial and intelligence support. Will the allies, fresh from their Afghan cop-out, stay the course this time? Nato combat jets are nowhere to be seen in Ukraines skies but theres a whiff of betrayal in the air.

Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukraines president, wants instant EU membership. He was cheered at the European parliament last week but he will not get his wish. Kyiv is pleading for a Nato-patrolled no-fly zone to help stop the merciless bombing of cities such as Mariupol and Kharkiv. That isnt happening, either.

Ukraines people are determined to fight on. Its impossible not to admire them but also impossible, or so western leaders appear to say, to protect them from mass murder.

Such bravery underscores the grave responsibility of western governments. Britain and the US, in particular, have encouraged resistance, sending missiles and lethal aid. Raising the stakes, Boris Johnson and Joe Biden portray the war as a defining struggle between freedom and tyranny, democracy and authoritarianism. Thats not the sort of war you can afford to lose.

Most European countries, plus Australia, Japan, Canada and others, have pledged open-ended backing, too. For the first time, the EU will supply weaponry. This is all very dramatic, perhaps suspiciously so.

Should Ukrainians trust these sweeping promises? What if the war lasts five or 10 years, which is not unusual for such conflicts? Fuelling an apparently endless, widely destabilising insurgency will require grit and consistency in London and other capitals.

Few western politicians, eyeing the next election, display such qualities. How long, for example, will German voters current outrage outlast the impact of higher bills and taxes to pay for non-Russian gas and vastly increased defence spending?

How long will Biden stay engaged if the crisis turns into a grinding war of attrition? He could be a lame duck after Novembers midterms. Possible 2024 replacements, such as Trump, have a very different view of Nato and Russia. The longevity and reliability of public and political support for Ukraine is one question. Another will be how to meet the resistances need for an unceasing flow of arms, assistance, and staging posts and safe havens outside Ukrainian territory.

The probability that displaced fighters, plus a European foreign legion, will seek bases in neighbouring Nato members from which to launch attacks on the occupiers is strong. Remember how the mujahideen, fighting the Red Army, and later the Taliban, fighting Nato, operated from Pakistan.

Extended cross-border warfare would ineluctably suck in alliance countries. It would be viewed by Putin as the product not of unextinguished Ukrainian nationalism but of US-plotted regime change. If Russia, over time, continues to suffer significant losses to a western-backed resistance, Putin will take the war to the west. This is exactly the dangerous escalation Biden and Nato say they are determined to avoid, which supposedly justifies their refusal of a no-fly zone. Its the third world war nightmare scenario Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, warns against. But how to dispel it?

Uncertain, too, is the wests ability to maintain the unusual unity of purpose lauded by a too self-congratulatory Biden in last weeks State of the Union address. The EU is likewise proud of its united stance and tough sanctions package.

But big gaps and internal differences remain. Revenue-spinning Russian oil and gas still flow. The banking bans have large loopholes. Even the best-laid sanctions regimes crumble over time. And despite an initially generous EU welcome, the expected huge increases in refugee numbers, if the war drags on, will exacerbate existing tensions in Europe and the UK.

Worries about an unvanquished Putin going on to threaten other former Soviet republics, as Biden predicts he might, are also intensifying. The defeatist argument goes like this: Ukraine, sadly, is already lost. Better to concentrate on ensuring the Baltic republics and similarly vulnerable states do not go the same way. The paradox is that the more successful and long-lived Ukraines resistance is, the bigger the dangers for Nato. Yet if by supporting it, the allies cannot ultimately avoid being drawn into conflict with Russia, why delay the inevitable?

In other words: rather than leave the fighting, and the dying, to Ukrainians alone and then eventually abandon them the western democracies should put their air combat forces on standby, declare their intention to impose a no-fly zone and tell the Kremlin to stop the killing.

Putins slaughter of innocents is unbearable, yet we are forced to watch. Will the west fight to the last Ukrainian? Or will it stand up and fight for itself?

See the article here:
The more Ukraine resists, the greater the danger to Nato. It should act now to stop the slaughter - The Guardian