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Ron Insana says the Fed is defying logic by trying to create a recession – CNBC
Posted: May 7, 2022 at 7:19 pm
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on May 04, 2022 in Washington, DC. Powell announced the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates by a half-percentage point to combat record high inflation.
Win Mcnamee | Getty Images
Volcker or Vulcan?
Whom should the Fed emulate today?
With a consistent chorus of economists, ex-policymakers and businesspeople calling on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to crush inflation now, they are panicking as if today's inflation is the exact twin of what plagued the U.S. economy some 40-plus years ago.
The comparison is, in the words of a well-known Vulcan, illogical.
Powell nearly admitted as much on Wednesday when he said some of the inflation currently being generated, at home and abroad, is well beyond the Fed's control.
I have argued that almost all of it is and that aggressively tightening credit conditions, by both raising interest rates and launching Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed is overreacting to the long-term risk posed by short-term effects.
I've also argued that today's inflation is much more like a post-war phenomenon than a series of adverse shocks that hit the economy from the late 1960s until the early 1980s.
At that juncture, then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker enacted record-setting rate hikes that drove short rates above 20% and long rates above 14%. That was a logical response to the better than decade long build-up of inflationary pressures that was a multi-factor phenomenon.
In my Volcker vs. Vulcan scenario, a more sober assessment of today's inflation would attempt to measure risk versus reward and causation versus coincidence.
The enduring nature of the pandemic, now largely affecting China's economy and further disrupting global supply chains far beyond what was once a reasonably expected, is at the very root of the elevated prices we see today. This is a domestic Chinese policy issue first and a global economic and foreign policy question second.
In addition, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has unexpectedly, and massively, reduced the output of energy and food supplies globally, leading to yet another supply shock resulting in higher prices abroad and here at home.
That won't end until this war is over and it won't be solved by any central bank.
It's been noted, of late, that American grocery bills are going up for meat and poultry as well.
It's not just higher feed prices, or a lack of fertilizer, pushing up the prices of meat and vegetables an outbreak of bird flu is reducing the supply of chickens, making even the most affordable of meat substitutes less costly than it was only a few months ago.
And as for wage inflation, by the Fed's own admission the cost of labor is rising only in part because of increased demand for consumer goods and services.
Chair Powell noted that there are currently 11.5 million open jobs in the U.S., nearly double the number of unemployed workers another shortage due, at least in part, to pandemic-related issues.
Against that backdrop, it now appears the Fed is, however, hell-bent on pushing the economy to the brink of recession and pushing the unemployment rate up to relieve inflationary pressures that, to me, remain transient, in the broadest of terms.
And I don't mean that those pressures will abate in a matter of months, but as in prior post-war periods, inflation falls as supply returns, even against a backdrop of rising demand.
It is entirely illogical to believe that aggressive tightening will shorten the lockdowns in China, end the war in Ukraine, produce over four million American workers out of thin air, or even cure our chickens before they hatch.
I don't know of anyone, outside of St. Louis Fed President James Bullard who seriously believed the Fed would raise rates by three-quarters of a percent in this tightening cycle. As we saw on Thursday, the belief that there was relief was a fatally flawed construct.
While logic dictates that the Fed gradually normalize rates and, one day, reduce size of its balance sheet, it's becoming extremely clear that the Fed intends to create a recession, not avoid one.
If forced to choose between Volcker's approach to today's inflation, or a Vulcan's, I'll go with Mr. Spock every time.
Volcker was justified in driving the economy into a deep downturn to conquer imbedded inflation in 1980, even though those actions led to several adverse events, like the Latin American debt crisis, that ultimately forced him to reverse course and ease.
Logic dictates the Fed not try that again, not today.
The economy is already beginning to slow. The dollar is rising rapidly and there will be a price to pay for misidentifying the root cause of today's economic problems.
The very notion of engineering a recession to reduce normalized demand in order to meet drastically reduced supply causes me to raise an eyebrow and insist that "This is highly illogical, Captain."
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Governor Ron DeSantis Appoints Two to the Florida Virtual School Board of Trustees – Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
Posted: at 7:19 pm
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. Today, Governor Ron DeSantis announced the appointment of Rafael Tony Arza and Kelly Garcia to the Florida Virtual School Board of Trustees.
Raphael Tony Arza, PhD
Arza, of Miami, is an Educational Consultant for Mountain Moving Strategies. He is currently appointed to the Charter School Appeal Commission under the Florida Department of Education. Arza earned his bachelors degree in philosophy from Franciscan University of Steubenville, and both his masters degree and his doctorate in theological studies from John Paul II Institute.
Kelly Garcia
Garcia, of Tampa, is the Committee Chair and Board Member for Frameworks of Tampa Bay. She is a career educator and a member of Teneo Network. Garcia earned her bachelors degree from the Catholic University of America and her masters degree from the University of Florida.
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Paul Bettany Caused An Embarrassing Situation For Tom Hanks In The Da Vinci Code – /Film
Posted: at 7:19 pm
One of the appeals of Dan Brown's protagonist Robert Langdon, a man Tom Hanks has perfectly embodied even as subsequent films have languished, is how out of place he often appears in the conspiracies he's caught up in. He's no Indiana Jones, and throughout "The Da Vinci Code," that fact is often nudged. Especially when Langdon is getting his a** kicked. In one such scene, Silas ambushes him, shoves him into a bookshelf, and sucker-punches him in the gut. But as Paul Bettany told Esquire, he got a completely unexpected (and perhaps involuntary) reaction from his costar: a "gargantuan fart." Bettany continued:
"I was like, 'Holy s***, what am I going to do? It's Tom Hanks, the biggest star in the world, and I've just made him fart.' He looked at me and I looked at him. And he went, 'What's wrong with you?'"
What does one do when they've punched and made fart a man who has portrayed such adored figures as Forrest Gump, Woody, and Mister Rogers? It's probably a special kind of embarrassment being admonished by Hanks, one akin to the displeasure in receiving from authority figures from adolescence (math teacher, coach, relative) who could actually move you with their disappointment. We can try and imagine Bettany's mortification, but I imagine we fall short.
Although, I'm curious if the take that was used was the same one that elicited the epic fart. We've all heard stories of actors improvising and riffing off one another to unlock a special performance from inside the other, but this was probably way too literal. Hopefully it's all water under the bridgefor the two actors or more accurately, past gas!
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Everything to Know About Paul Rudd’s Wife Julie Yaeger – Showbiz Cheat Sheet
Posted: at 7:19 pm
Paul Ruddhas earned the distinction of being one of the most likable stars in Hollywood. Not only does he have a knack for choosing films thatstand the test of time, but he is known for being unproblematic and drama-free. Rudd avoids the scandalous headlines that plague many of his fellow actors. And there could be a very simple reason for that. Rudd has long been happily married tohis wife, Julie Yaeger, who has a thriving career of her own. Together, Rudd and Yaeger remain balanced in an industry known for being especially brutal on relationships.
Paul Rudd was born in 1969. He went on to study acting at several institutions of higher learning, including the University of Kansas and the American Academy of Dramatic Arts, according toIMDb. After completing his training, he worked a variety of odd jobs, including becoming a DJ at bar mitzvahs. But in the early 90s, he started landing acting roles, making his big Hollywood breakthrough.
Rudds early roles included parts inClueless, Halloween: The Curse of Michael Myers, The Locusts, Overnight Delivery, andThe Cider House Rules. He became known for his affable, easygoing demeanor, but didnt hesitate to take on dramatic roles as well. By the early 2000s, Rudd had appeared in some of the biggest comedy films of the decade, includingAnchorman: The Legend of Ron BurgundyandKnocked Up. His role asAnt-Man in the Marvel Cinematic Universefurther cemented his place as a Hollywood icon.
As Rudd was beginning his ascent to stardom, he met Julie Yaeger, a publicist who also worked as a screenwriter. Rudd later admitted to Marie Claire that Yaeger was the first person he met in New York, and that her maturity impressed him. As Rudd toldCosmopolitan, I was really taken with who she was and how she had overcome and was in the process of overcoming adversities in her life.
Yaeger and Rudd started dating, and in 2003, the two lovebirds tied the knot. Even as Rudd made it big in Hollywood, Yaeger continued her own high-powered career evenworking with her husbandin 2017 on the filmFun Mom Dinner, which Yaeger wrote and Rudd executive-produced.
Rudd and Yaeger have two children: a son, Jack, and a daughter, Darby. The family prefers to remain out of the spotlight, with Rudd shunning most forms of social media. Still, fans can sometimes catch Rudd and Yaeger together when they walk red carpets at his film premieres. Rudd also doesnt hesitate to praise his family when he sits down for interviews, making it clear that he is the family man that he often plays in movies.
Rudd and Yaeger are still happily together after many years. And by all accounts, the two are doing better than ever. Rudd told Elle in 2011 that he and Yaeger are a very normal couple. As reported byParade, Rudd said, I dont think Im going to sell a lot of tabloids. My wife and I have been together for 16 years. My parents were married my whole life until my father passed away a few years ago.
For Rudd, being a Hollywood star is a tiny part of his identity. As Rudd toldPeople Magazinein 2021, when I think about myself, I think of myself as a husband and a father, like Imthat.I just hang out with my family when Im not working. Thats what I kind of like the most.
RELATED:Friends: The Reunion Director Explains Why Paul Rudd and Others Didnt Make Cameos: We Couldnt Have Everybody On
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Graduates From Youth Program Get Free Suits To Dress For Success – CBS Boston
Posted: at 7:19 pm
FRAMINGHAM (CBS) A look of approval in the mirror. For Framingham High School senior Kevin Silva, its a big moment.
Im speechless because Ive never actually owned a suit. This store just being overwhelming with choices, said Silva.
Hes one of eight graduates of the Ron Burton Training Village getting outfitted at Miltons for a free new suit as part of the programs Dress for Success event, now in its 13th year.
Im going to cherish this suit. Im going to take care of it. Any chance to use it, I will, said Silva.
Who these people are, and who theyve become, and how theyve grown is really the most important thing. But when they look good as well that just really completes the package and thats all were really trying to do, said Miltons President Dana Katz.
Many in the group are also recipients of full scholarships from the youth organization, including Stonehill College freshman Luis Mendes.
A full ride just meant everything just because it meant I could be closer to my family and get the education that I wanted. It just means everything to me, said Mendes.
WBZ-TVs own Paul Burton was on hand Thursday to help with style advice, and talk about his dads legacy.
When my Dad went to college, they had a Ron Burton day for him because he didnt have the money to buy luggage and clothes to go to Northwestern. So for Dana to hear that story and keep that tradition alive means a lot to our family and just in memory of my Dad, said Burton.
In addition to the suit, the guys are getting all the accessories to go along with it- shoes, socks, tie, belt. Everything they need to help make a future internship or job interview a successful one.
Theyll have the entire outfit they need to look good, to feel good, and we know it will make a difference, said Katz.
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Road to Stanleytown: Red Wings’ Russian Five proving critics wrong – Detroit Free Press
Posted: at 7:19 pm
Gene Myers| Special to Detroit Free Press
Russian 5 movie: Relive how the Red Wings came to
"The Russian Five" will be shown on PBS (Channel 56) in Detroit at 9 p.m. Dec. 17, 2020. It tells the story of how 5 Soviets became Detroit Red Wings.
Helene St. James, Detroit Free Press
In the spring of 1997 a quarter-century ago the Detroit Red Wings embarked on their quest to end a 42-year Stanley Cup drought.
The Free Press has commemorated that historic quest with a new book: Stanleytown: The Inside Story of How the Stanley Cup Returned to the Motor City After 41 Frustrating Seasons.
The backstory: After the Red Wings 5-3 victory in Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals, the Mighty Ducks had one day to devise a strategy to send the series back to Detroit. To sit here right now and say, Weve got to win four games against Detroit is a little bit overwhelming, Ducks sniper Paul Kariya said. Can we win one game? Yes, we can. Only two teams in NHL history had rallied from three-games-to-none deficits: the New York Islanders in 1975 (against Pittsburgh) and the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1942 (against Detroit in the Stanley Cup Finals). You have to take it one game at a time, Ducks coach Ron Wilson said. Its pretty bleak especially the way the Red Wings are playing. The other hottest topics on the eve of Game 4 were the stellar play of the Russian Five and the penalties in Game 3.
[Red Wings face roster decisions: Debating who stays and who goes in 2022]
Russian revision: With four goals in Game 3, the Russian Five continued to dominate the Ducks. That prompted Keith Gave to write in the Free Press: Just as important, their impressive performance in these playoffs helps to bury the hideous myth about Russian players in the NHL. Jimmy Devellano, senior vice president for the Wings, spelled it out: Im so sick and tired of people saying the Russians dont get up for the playoffs, that they dont know the meaning of the Stanley Cup. Bull. Theyve been through the wars, these guys. They know how to win, and theyre here to win the Cup. Gave continued: Such suggestions are enough to make a Papa Bear growl, but Slava Fetisov the elder statesman of the Russian Unit and former Red Army captain just shrugs it off as more North American bigotry his comrades have to overcome. Gave pointed outtheyre great targets for abuse in enemy arenas. As in St. Louis, the fans at the Pond in Anaheim chanted U-S-A! U-S-A! when the Russian Five took center stage. I hope they keep yelling U-S-A! U-S-A! like that, Devellano said. They seem to really get a burr up their bottom. To which Vladimir Konstantinov couldnt dispute. Yes, we hear it, he said. What are they cheering that for? We just try to score a goal right away, and get more attention from the stands. In Game 3, Igor Larionov scored 10 seconds after the chant started. In St. Louis, Slava Kozlov scored his first goal during the chant. With two goals in Game 3, Kozlov had five goals in the past five games, which Konstantinov was quick to point out disproved the notion about Russians in the playoffs. See how Slava is playing now compared to the regular season, he said. Thats the best example. He raises his level several steps up.
[Russian Five excerpt: How Sergei Fedorov escaped USSR for Red Wings]
In the box: In Game 3, the Ducks built a 2-0 lead by scoring on 5-on-3 power plays. The Wings got back in the game with a pair of power-play goals. That prompted Wilson to criticize his charges: We didnt take marginal penalties; we took stupid penalties. If you take a bad penalty, like a needless one, a feel-good one when you punch a guy in the back of the head when youre angry, the other team always scores. Detroit lost their composure for five minutes, and it was 2-0 for us. And then they regained their composure and that was experience on their part. The Ducks first goal followed a high-sticking penalty on goalie Mike Vernon, who also picked up a 10-minute misconduct for sharing choice words with referee Bill McCreary. That prompted Darren McCarty to say: Theres a few magic words out there, and we all possess them, weve all said them. Hes a pretty feisty guy. Hes a leader in the dressing room, and he was just showing his dissatisfaction and obviously, McCreary wasnt going to take his lip. Vernies as cool as they come. Nothing really rattles him. Thats about as hot as he gets, but he just blows it off and gets it done.
GAME 3: Mighty sweet comeback victoryputs Wings up 3-0
GAME 2: Slava Kozlov ends classic marathon in 3OT
GAME 1: Surprise hero lifts Wings over Ducks in OT
Worth noting: Grinder Joe Kocur was ruled out for Game 4 because of back spasms, suffered when he lost an edge and slid back-first into the boards. … The Ducks hadnt lost consecutive games at the Pond since early January. … Wilson credited Larionov as the reason Sergei Fedorov and Kozlov were playing their best hockey of the season. Hes like the hub on their wheel; hes the computer chip for them, Wilson said. Igor has made Fedorov a better player again. Hes a master at taking people out of position like a pied piper and getting the puck to the open man.
Off the ice: The Los Angeles Times had a little something different aboutNew Zealand actress Lucy Lawless, whose Uncle Sam costume revealed far too much cleavage as she belted out the final notes of the national anthem before Game 3. The Times fishing report noted there was a school of 10,000 pargo near Cerralvo Island and that a certain warrior princess had muscled in a 44-pounder.
Famous last words: Sniper Teemu Selanne after Anaheim blew the series first two-goal lead: I said to myself when we go up, 2-0, we have a good chance to win if we just play smart. We didnt do that. There are 20 guys who didnt finish the job. Im disappointed.
Relive the glory:The Free Press has crafted a 208-page, full-color, hardcover collectors book with fresh insights and dynamic storytelling about the 1996-97 Wings. Its calledStanleytown 25 Years Later: The Inside Story on How the Stanley Cup Returned to the Motor City after 41 Frustrating Seasons.Its only $29.95 and its available at RedWings.PictorialBook.com. (Itll make a great Mothers Day or Fathers Day gift for the Wings fanatic in your life!) Personalized copies available via myersgene@comcast.net.
[ Want more Wings news? Download our free mobile app oniPhoneorAndroid! ]
More to read: Another new Wings book arrived in April from Keith Gave, a longtime hockey writer for the Free Press in the 1980s and 1990s: Vlad The Impaler: More Epic Tales from Detroits 97 Stanley Cup Conquest. It is available through Amazon and other booksellers and a portion of the proceeds is earmarked for the Vladimir Konstantinov Special Needs Trust. (Plenty of Gaves prose also appears in Stanleytown 25 Years Later.)
Even more to read: Red Wings beat reporter Helene St. James, who helped cover the 1997 Stanley Cup run, recently wrote The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Detroit Red Wings. Featuring numerous tales about the key figures from 1997, The Big 50 is available from Amazon, Barnes & Noble and Triumph Books. (Plenty of St. James prose also appears in Stanleytown 25 Years Later.)
To accessour most exclusive sports content, like the stories linked above,become a Free Press subscriber for $1.
Stay informed on what's happening across Michigan: Subscribe to our news alert emails.
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Scientists: It’s As If Something With Huge "Fingernails" Scratched the Surface of Mars – Futurism
Posted: at 7:18 pm
Are there monsters on Mars yet?Tantalizing Tidbits
Scientists at the European Space Agency are getting all mythological on us.
The ESA posted new photos of Mars surface features captured by the Mars Express this week, describing them as looking as if someone has raked their fingernails across the surface of the Red Planet, gouging out lengthy trenches as they did so.
Rather than a monsters creation, though, the ESA said in a press releasethat the region, called Tantalus Fossae, was created when the volcano they flank rose in altitude.
Each trench formed as two parallel faults opened up, causing the rock between to drop down into the resulting void, the ESA presser said.
They released photos of the trenches and the nearly-12-mile-wide crater they cross on Twitter, shown below. The region was named for Zeus son Tantalus, who betrayed the gods and was forced to endure punishment in the underworld.
The ESA Mars Express has been orbiting Mars since 2003 and captured a lot of info about the Red Planet just as billionaires like SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk plan to colonize it.
With NASAs Artemis plans, which should see the first person of color and the first woman on the Moon before moving on to Mars, we may soon be learning about these topographical features up close and personal, if it isnt yanked away like Tantalus apples and water were during his punishment.
More on off-world news: Former Astronaut Muzzled by NASA Unloads on Russia Again
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Scientists Reveal Why Man Died After Receiving Pig Heart Transplant – Futurism
Posted: at 7:18 pm
Image by Getty Images/Futurism
A man who successfully lived for two months after doctors replaced his failing heart with a genetically altered onemay have ultimately died from virus pigs not humans are known to carry, The New York Times reports.
Its an unfortunate predicament, underlining the complex and little-understood risks involved in transplanting animal organs into the human body.
Its unclear if the virus was the direct cause of the patients death in March, but it may have played a contributing role, according to Bartley Griffith, a transplant surgeon at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, who recently gave a presentation on the subject.
Surgeons had initially screened the pig heart for the virus called porcine cytomegalovirus (CMV), according to the NYT,but the tests arent able to pick up on latent infections, only active ones.
Despite Griffiths passing, scientists were elated at how long his body went without rejecting the pig heart, according to the newspaper.
Twenty days after the procedure, a test found low levels of porcine CMV, according to Griffin.But then Bennets condition deteriorated quickly, with subsequent tests confirming spiking levels of the virus.
At Day 45, he looked really funky, Griffith told the NYT. Something happened. He looked sick. He lost his attention. He wouldnt talk to us. He lay in bed breathing hard, and was kind of warm.
Griffin also said that porcine CMV may have been the actor it could have been the actor that set this all off.
The incident is indicative of the inherent risks of such a procedure and the fact that a lot of work still has to be done before we can start solving the organ crisis by harvesting organs from animals.
READ MORE: Signs of an Animal Virus Discovered in Man Who Received a Pigs Heart [The New York Times]
More on the transplant: Man Who Received Experimental Pig Heart Transplant Dies
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Amazing Footage Shows Inside of Space Station When It Fires Its Mighty Thrusters – Futurism
Posted: at 7:18 pm
Looks like fun!Space Ride
Charming footage from from the interior of the International Space Station shows what happens to the astronauts inside when the ship fires its thrusters.
Thats cool on its own, but its also a terrific demonstration of Newtonian physics. Case in point, instead of the astronauts moving inside the ISS, the video that the European Space Agency posted to YouTube shows the ISS moving while the crew remain suspended in microgravity.
During the maneuver, the astronauts inside the station keep flying at the same speed and direction, the ESA said of the 1-minute clip. While it seems like the astronauts are moving inside the station, it is in fact the ISS that gets the boost and is moving around them.
The maneuver is especially exciting because its astronaut Matthias Maures first mission to the space station, and the Expedition 66 crew line up behind him to tuck their knees in while the ISS moves, making for a super slow kind of off world carnival ride (and, its worth noting, the ESA says the video was also sped up 8 times.)
The video may also lend credence to interpretation that Russias head cosmonaut left Roscosmos because there wasnt enough work for him to do on the ISS. If crew on various teams have time to float around for fun, its reasonable to suspect theyre working overtime to fill up their downtime.
Regardless of the cultural implications of this clip such as the fact that terrestrial warfare is affecting even life in space it still puts a smile on your face. Its wholesome to know that wherever we are, the basic human experience of creating fun is unlikely to disappear.
More on off-world news: Scientists Propose Planet-Size Telescope
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Cosmonaut Quits Because He Doesn’t Want to "Work for the Americans" – Futurism
Posted: at 7:18 pm
"Sorry, but there is no proper motivation for this."So Long
Russian cosmonaut Alexander Skvortsov, whom Russian news outlet Moskovskii Komsomolets describes as the hero of Russia, gave the outlet a short interview explaining his departure from the space program earlier this week.
He says there wasnt enough to keep him busy on the International Space Station and,pushing him over the edge, Skvortsov doesnt want to collaborate with the American astronauts. Hes also turning 56 years old, and told MKits more or less just time to retire.
It would have been nothing if the program included interesting work on the Russian segment, but most of the time I would have to work for the Americans, that is, to help them carry out their experiments, Skvortsov told the Russian publication. Sorry, but there is no proper motivation for this. In a few days I will be 56 years old I do not want to celebrate my 60th anniversary in orbit. We must stop in time.
Social media users were quick to point out that there could be several different interpretations of Skvortsovs remarks. Space enthusiast Katya Pavlushchenko translated the interview in a Twitter thread,with replies divided on what the cosmonaut meant.
Is he saying he doesn[t]want to assist Americans? Why would he have to? There will be more Americans on station than Russians, one user replied.
Or is he saying that the Russian Segment lacks any meaningful scientific program of its own? another questioned.
Either is possible. Skvortsov said in the interview he respects Rogozin, the boorish head of Russias space program, and that he isnt leaving Roscosmos with any resentment. Still, life aboard the ISS has been pretty rocky lately, especially between the Russians and Americans.
Rogozin has even been rumored to want out as well.
Its tough to say whether Skvortsov just resents Americans, or isnt satisfied with Russias space program, but the result is the same either way. MK says another cosmonaut will take Skvortsovs place, so they wont be down an employee for long.
More in off world news: Scientists Propose Planet-Sized Telescope
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Cosmonaut Quits Because He Doesn't Want to "Work for the Americans" - Futurism
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