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Category Archives: Transhuman News

Volokh Conspiracy: Paul Krugman claims there basically arent any libertarians

Posted: April 13, 2015 at 11:42 am

In a recent post , famed economist Paul Krugman claims that there basically arent any libertarians out there because public opinion breaks down neatly along a liberal-conservative spectrum where almost everyone who favors government intervention in the economy is a social liberal and almost everyone who is skeptical of it is a social conservative. But Krugman cites no data to support his conclusion. And, in fact, extensive survey data contradicts it.

The relevant evidence has been catalogued by David Boaz, polling guru Nate Silver (who is far from being a libertarian himself), and economist Bryan Caplan. Depending on what measures you use, anywhere from about 10% to as many as 44 percent of Americans hold generally libertarian views in the sense that they favor strict limits on government power in both the economic and social spheres. I believe the lower estimates are more credible than the higher ones. But even the former are still a substantial fraction of the population.

Most of these people arent as consistent and thoroughgoing in their views as libertarian intellectuals are. But the same can be said of most conservatives and liberals in the general public relative to intellectual advocates of those viewpoints. At least within the Republican Party (which is a major focus of Krugmans post), the percentage of libertarians is rapidly increasing; younger Republicans are much more libertarian on social issues than their elders, while still being skeptical of government intervention in the economy.

Krugman also claims that almost no one holds views that are the opposite of libertarianism: combining social conservatism with support for extensive government intervention in the economy (he calls such people hardhats, though public opinion researchers more commonly call them populists). This too is clearly false. As Boaz and Caplan note, surveys show a substantial number of people who fall into that category. In recent years, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum both ran campaigns for the GOP presidential nomination on such a platform, and both attracted substantial support. Perhaps even more telling, George W. Bushs policies as president included a combination of social conservatism and the biggest new welfare state program in some forty years, as well as a major expansion of federal government involvement in education. Bush and his advisers clearly believed there were enough hardhats out there to make this program politically viable. In Europe, the combination of social conservatism and economic interventionism is even more common than in the US, as witness the recent resurgence of parties such as Frances National Front, which combine right-wing nationalism with support for a large welfare state. As a libertarian myself, Im no fan of hardhat/populist ideologies. But I cant deny that there are large numbers of people who support them.

Admittedly, Krugmans claim might be right if we interpret his framework literally. He defines libertarians as people who combine social liberalism with the view that there should be no social insurance. As David Boaz notes in his critique, the latter is an extreme definition that would exclude such prominent libertarian thinkers as Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek (both of whom were willing to accept a strictly limited welfare state); it would also rule out the vast majority of those people who hold roughly libertarian views in the general population. But if Krugman means that definition literally, it would also prove there are no conservatives either. After all, very few people who consider themselves to be conservatives favor the complete abolition of the welfare state, as opposed to its restriction to levels smaller than that favored by the left. In the 2012 election, the GOP even ran on a platform attacking Obama for supposedly cutting Medicare too much.

Its also possible to try to justify Krugmans claim by arguing that most of those people who hold seemingly libertarian views havent thought carefully about their implications and are not completely consistent in their beliefs. This is likely true. But it is also true of most conservatives and liberals. Political ignorance and irrationality are very common across the political spectrum and only a small minority of voters think carefully about their views and make a systematic attempt at consistency. Libertarian-leaning voters are not an exception to this trend. But it is worth noting that, controlling for other variables, increasing political knowledge tends to make people more libertarian in their views than they would be otherwise.

Finally, Krugman is wrong to suggest that the difference between supporters and opponents of more extensive government intervention in the economy is solely or even primarily about social insurance that breaks down traditional structures of authority. In many places, early expansions of government intervention in the economy were in part intended to reinforce rather than break down traditional structures of authority, which is one reason why it was often pioneered by right-wingers like Otto von Bismarck. More recently, there are have been many forms of government intervention that tend to benefit the relatively affluent and and well-connected interest groups at the expense of the poor. If you dont want to take my word for it, read Krugmans own recent columns on zoning and farm subsidies.

In his critique of Krugmans post, Bryan Caplan suggests that Krugmans neglect of readily available evidence in this case gives us reason to doubt his reliability more generally. I dont go quite that far. As I see it, this is yet another case where a pundit gets into trouble by pontificating on issues outside their expertise.

Even if you are a brilliant Nobel Prize-winning economist like Krugman, its easy to go wrong in commenting on a subject you may not have much knowledge about. Moreover, in dealing with such issues, we are more likely to act like political fans and default to simplistic frameworks that make it easy to feel good about our own views, while dismissing those of the opposition.

In this case, postulating a simplistic one-dimensional distribution of political opinion enables Krugman to claim that virtually all of the people who oppose his views on government intervention in the economy do not, in reality, love liberty, and also to ignore the fact that many people who endorse a large welfare state also have illiberal social views. These assumptions make it easy to divide the world into good guys who want to break down traditional forms of authority and bad guys who want to maintain them. But, however comforting it might be, this approach fails to capture the true distribution of political opinion.

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The Age of Transhumanist Politics Has Begun

Posted: at 11:41 am

The founding of the Transhumanist Party of the United States, the intensifying of the U.S. BRAIN-Initiative and the start of Google's project "Ending death" were important milestones in the year 2014, and potential further steps towards "transhumanist" politics. The most significant development was that the radical international technology community became a concrete political force, not by chance starting its global political initiative in the U.S. According to political scientist and sociologist Roland Benedikter, research scholar at the University of California at Santa Barbara, "transhumanist" politics has momentous growth potential but with uncertain outcomes. The coming years will probably see a dialogue between humanism and transhumanism in - and about - most crucial fields of human endeavor, with strong political implications that will challenge, and could change the traditional concepts, identities and strategies of Left and Right.

Roland Benedikter is the co-author of two Pentagon and U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff White Papers concerning the future of Neurotechnology and the Ethics of Neurowarfare (2013 and 2014), several books about global strategic matters (two of those on Xi Jinping's China) and of the upcoming book Neuroscience and Neuroethics: Impacting Human Futures (in cooperation with James Giordano, Springer New York) which will be published in 2015. He has co-authored the commentary "Neuroculture: How to keep ethical pace with the current 'deep' transformations through neurotechnology? for "Leftist Review" with James Giordano in March 2012. Katja Siepmann and Annabella McIntosh conducted the interview.

In the book you co-authored with Pentagon-advisor and Georgetown-neuroscientist and neuroethicist James Giordano "Neuroscience and Neuroethics: Impacting Human Futures" you state that these two fields at the interface between science and politics might lead to bigger changes in the coming years than either conventional politics or science. The reason: Technology is becoming an increasingly more powerful political and social force - not only sectorially or nationally, but globally.

Roland Benedikter: In recent years technology has indeed emerged as a concrete social and political force. 2014 has seen a noticeable intensification of that trend. The traditional political players are poorly prepared for it. What, for example, nowadays takes place in just one year at the interface between the human brain and technology, until recently required a decade. It is an exponential development. The mechanization of society and humanity is occurring within many disciplines- for example, in the form of neurotechnology, which is increasingly used for medical and both dual-use and direct military purposes. But there are other fields too. From neuroeconomics to, neuroaesthetics, neurosprituality, neurosociology and even neuropolitics, the "neuro"-prefix is becoming omnipresent in the understanding and meaning of our time and civilization - and with regard to its self-ascribed identity.

What exactly is going on?

Roland Benedikter: Supporters of "human enhancement"[1], which encompasses scientists, entrepreneurs and politicians and transcends language, cultural and ideological barriers, advocate mechanization of the human body in general and the broad "culturalization" of brain-machine interfaces in particular as the progressive, transformative path for humanity in the 21st century. By playing a consulting role in the "high spheres" of politics, science, and management, representatives of the transhumanist movement (including the World Transhumanist Association), which was initiated in the 1980s, are promoting the fusion of humans and computers. Among other things, they recommend the broad use of implants to enhance cognitive abilities, neural engineering to expand human consciousness and the cyborgization of the body and its tissues and systems in order to increase resilience, flourishing and lifespan.

Sounds gruesome at first. What is the idea behind all this?

Roland Benedikter: The name "transhumanism" is the basic concept that tells it all. Its followers want to go beyond the present human condition. At its core it means to overcome the "natural" limitations inherent in human existence, which is to be born, live relatively short, half-conscious lives, and then die. The supporters of "human enhancement" and "transhumanism" intend to break through these current physical and cognitive (and perhaps even spiritual) barriers. In order to do that, they will pursue biotechnological upgrades to the human body and thus, conceivably, try to eliminate the negative effects of ageing and eventually (at least in their aspiration) even death.

You state (in a scientifically "neutral" sense) that the first breakthrough of this development could now be imminent, but there will also be inescapable associated ethical problems?

Roland Benedikter: Possibly. Those who view the future human being as a technoid being, if not as a body fully integrated into technology - as seem to do, for example, Google's chief engineer Ray Kurzweil or the Oxford professor of philosophy Nick Bostrom, who is the head of the "Future of Humanity Institute" at the faculty of philosophy and the Oxford James Martin 21st Century School -- regard the mid of the century as a probable date for reaching the "singularity." That's the moment when artificial intelligence allegedly surpasses that of human intelligence and becomes in some way "self-conscious", as these thinkers expect.[2] Kurzweil has recently even referred to the year 2029 as the date when technology could reach a level of self-conscious "intelligence".[3] If that happens, even on an approximate basis, it will without doubt affect virtually everything, even though it will likely not occur in as spectacular ways as predicted.

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The Age of Transhumanist Politics Has Begun

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Moldovan oligarch offers $1m to the first person that lives to 123

Posted: at 11:41 am

The large prize is being offered by businessman, Dmitry Kaminskiy He hopes money will help create a new group of 'supercenternarians' Jeanne Calment holds the record of oldest person, dying aged 122.5 He has made a $1m bet with Dr Alex Zhavoronkov on who will die first

By Zoltan Istvan For Dailymail.com

Published: 17:02 EST, 10 April 2015 | Updated: 19:32 EST, 12 April 2015

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Dmitry Kaminskiy is hoping his million dollar gift will trigger a new group of 'supercenternarians'

A Moldovan multi-millionaire whose dream it is to live forever has promised to give $1 million to the first person to reach the age of 123.

Dmitry Kaminskiy, a senior partner of Hong Kong-based firm, Deep Knowledge Ventures, is hoping his million dollar gift will trigger a new group of 'supercenternarians'.

He says research into stem cells, tissue rejuvenation and regenerative medicine will allow people to live beyond 120 - an age that has been quoted as the 'real absolute limit to human lifespan'.

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UN told to ban killer robots before they become a reality

Posted: at 11:41 am

Human Rights Watch and Harvard Law Schools International Human Rights Clinic have a strong and eye-catching message for the U.N.: Ban killer robots. The two groups take up the cause against fully autonomous weapons in a 38-page report released ahead of an international meeting about said weapons starting April 13.

Fully autonomous weapons, also known as killer robots, raise serious moral and legal concerns because they would possess the ability to select and engage their targets without meaningful human control, begins the report, titled Mind the Gap: The Lack of Accountability for Killer Robots. Human Rights Watch and Harvard Law School lay out a list of concerns about fully autonomous weapons, including doubts about their ability to distinguish civilian from military targets, the possibility of an arms race, and proliferation to militaries with little regard for the law.

Related:DT Debates: Should robots be held to a human moral compass?

All of those concerns are compounded by the accountability gap for unlawful harm caused by fully autonomous weapons, according to the report. Under current laws, parties associated with the use or production of killer robots (e.g., operators, commanders, programmers, manufacturers) would not be held liable in the case of harm caused by the robots. The ultimate solution proposed by the report is to adopt an international ban on fully autonomous weapons.

On Monday, a weeklong international meeting about autonomous weapons systems will take place at the U.N. in Geneva. The agenda will cover additions to The Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons.

Also known as the inhumane weapons convention, the treaty has been regularly reinforced by new protocols on emerging military technology, according to The Guardian. Blinding laser weapons were pre-emptively outlawed in 1995 and combatant nations since 2006 have been required to remove unexploded cluster bombs.

The paper is an early discussion of a hypothetical future world, and the authors of the paper admit as much: Fully autonomous weapons do not yet exist, but technology is moving in their direction, and precursors are already in use or development. The examples listed in the paper all respond to threats automatically, putting them a step beyond drones, which require a human to control it from a remote location.

Related:Robot uprising? Cambridge University team to assess threat posed by AI

No accountability means no deterrence of future crimes, no retribution for victims, no social condemnation of the responsible party, said Bonnie Docherty, senior Arms Division researcher at Human Rights Watch and the reports lead author. The many obstacles to justice for potential victims show why we urgently need to ban fully autonomous weapons.

In November 2013, an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal co-authored by two professors disputed the notion that fully autonomous weapons need to be banned. Malicious actors already disposed to abusing such weapons would not respect a ban, argued Kenneth Anderson and Matthew Waxman. Moreover, because the automation of weapons will happen gradually, it would be nearly impossible to design or enforce such a ban.

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Track Of The Day 13/4 – Van Hunt

Posted: at 11:40 am

Van Hunt knows how to stretch.

A multi-talented, multi-disciplined musician and producer, the Ohio native already has a Grammy award lingering on his mantelpiece.

Continuing to challenge himself, new solo record 'The Fun Rises, The Fun Sets' is due to be released shortly.

It's another slice of flamboyant Afro-futurism, with shades of Prince in its luscious, future-minded funk. The material is at times reminiscent of Andre 3000 less in sound, more in approach as Van Hunt strives to push back boundaries.

Taken from the new album, 'Teach Me A New Language' is like a living cell continually sub-dividing and growing outward, the sighing, gospel-tinged vocals and fluid guitar lines mingle to produce something intoxicating.

Check it out now.

Buy Clash Magazine Get Clash on your mobile, for free:iPhone/Android

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Virtual Reality Can Change The Hospital Experience – The Medical Futurist – Video

Posted: at 11:40 am


Virtual Reality Can Change The Hospital Experience - The Medical Futurist
How the Oculus Rift, Sony Morpheus or Google Cardboard could change the whole healthcare experience for physicians and patients with virtual reality. Examples, applications and ideas for the...

By: The Medical Futurist

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Virtual Reality Can Change The Hospital Experience - The Medical Futurist - Video

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Rackspace’s futurist visits Maker Media lab (Make Magazine in 360-degrees) – Video

Posted: at 11:40 am


Rackspace #39;s futurist visits Maker Media lab (Make Magazine in 360-degrees)
I take my 360 camera to visit Make Magazine #39;s visual lab, which is inside the Innovation Hangar. Here you see the editor #39;s passions for drones, 3D printing, robots, and more. Learn more about...

By: Robert Scoble

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Rackspace's futurist visits Maker Media lab (Make Magazine in 360-degrees) - Video

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William Higham – Consumer Trends Futurist and Keynote Speaker – Video

Posted: at 11:40 am


William Higham - Consumer Trends Futurist and Keynote Speaker
William Higham is a consumer futurist, consultant, author and keynote speaker. William #39;s mission is to help brands monetise new consumer trends by demystifying the forecasting process and...

By: Gordon Poole Agency

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Rohit Talwar (Futurist, Strategic Advisor & Author) at WebTomorrow 2015 in Ghent, Belgium – Video

Posted: at 11:40 am


Rohit Talwar (Futurist, Strategic Advisor Author) at WebTomorrow 2015 in Ghent, Belgium
Which Opportunities Could The Digital Future Bring For Your Business? - KEYNOTE Rohit Talwar (UK) - CEO, Fast Future Research - Futurist, Strategic Advisor Author In this talk, global futurist...

By: Bloovi

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Rohit Talwar (Futurist, Strategic Advisor & Author) at WebTomorrow 2015 in Ghent, Belgium - Video

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Futurist Jack Uldrich: Yesterdays Lessons, Todays Visions, Tomorrows Reality

Posted: at 11:40 am

Atlanta, GA (PRWEB) April 13, 2015

Today, April 13th, Industrial futurist Jack Uldrich is slated to keynote Stiles Executive Briefing Conference. The conference which will "provide decision makers with the knowledge, strategies and attitude necessary for success in today's manufacturing world" opened yesterday and will run through Tuesday, April 14th.

Uldrich, playing with Stiles' theme of Be part of the vision by helping to create "whats next" will deliver a custom designed keynote address: Yesterdays Lessons, Todays Visions, Tomorrows Reality.

His call and response to his audiences is: "What will the world of tomorrow look like? The time to start thinking about this is now."

In his article, 3D Manufacturing is Out of This World - Literally Uldrich touches on just how far 3D printing will take the world of manufacturing, and that, he says is out of this world and into outer space. Additionally he says, "Another out of this world concept is that a little over five years ago, a 3D printera device that can manufacture physical objectscost $100,000. Today, similar printers are available for $1000 and are poised to revolutionize the world of manufacturing."

Uldrich travels the world speaking on future trends, emerging technologies, innovation change management and leadership. His manufacturing clients include the PMA, Siemens, the IBD, and PMMI. Other leading clients include Verizon Wireless, ABB/Thomas and Betts and Emerson.

Jack is a best-selling author and frequent guest on CNN, MSNBC and NPR. He is highly regarded for his unique ability to present complex information in an entertaining, understandable and digestible manner. Following his keynote at EBC, this week he will present to BCBS of North Carolina in Raleigh, Foth & Van Dyke in Green Bay and the North Carolina Association of Coops in also in Raleigh, NC.

Parties interested in learning more about him, his books, his daily blog or his speaking availability are encouraged to visit his website. Media wishing to know more about either the event or interviewing Jack as a futurist or trend expert can contact Amy Tomczyk at (651) 343.0660.

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