Category Archives: Transhuman News

September 7, 2022by SchiffGold04

Americans have been laboring under the burden of inflation for well over a year. We feel the pain everywhere, from the gas pump to the grocery store. Once it became impossible to sell the inflation is transitory narrative any longer, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to fight inflation. As a result, the bubble economy is getting shaky. But even some people at the Fed seem to realize this is a fight they cant win.

In a talk at the Ron Paul Institute, Mises Institute president Jeff Deist called inflation state-sponsored terrorism.

Inflationism is both a fiscal and monetary regime, but its consequences go far beyond economics. It has profound social, moral, and even civilizational effects. And understanding how it terrorizes us is the task today.

Following is a transcript of Deists talk.

The following article was originally published by the Mises Wire. The opinions expressed are the authors and dont necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.

I. Introduction

Remember the quaint old days of 2019? We were told the US economy was in great shape. Inflation was low, jobs were plentiful, GDP was growing. And frankly, if covid had not come along, there is a pretty good chance Donald Trump would have been reelected.

At an event in 2019, my friend and economist Dr. Bob Murphy said something very interesting about the political schism in this country. He said: If you think America is divided now, what would things look like if the economy was terrible? If we had another crash like 2008?

Well, we might not have to imagine such a scenario much longer.

If you think Americans are divided today, and at each others throatsmetaphorically, but more and more literallyimagine if they were cold and hungry!

Imagine if we had to live through something like Weimer Germany, Argentina in the 1980s, Zimbabwe in the 2000s, or Venezuela and Turkey today? What would our political and social divisions look like then?

Ladies and gentlemen, we live under the tyranny of inflationism. It terrorizes us, either softly or loudly. I suspect it will get a lot louder soon.

As the lateBill Petersonexplained, Inflationism, in todays terms, is deficit-spending, deliberate credit expansion on a national scale, a public policy fallacy of monumental proportions, of creating too much money that chases too few goods. It rests on the money illusion, a widespread confusion between income as a flow of money and income as a flow of goods and servicesa confusion between money and wealth.

Inflationism is both a fiscal and monetary regime, but its consequences go far beyond economics. It has profound social, moral, and even civilizational effects. And understanding how it terrorizes us is the task today.

II. Understanding Inflationism

Ill ask you to consider three things.

First, inflation is a policy.We should make them own it. Inflation is not something beyond our control that comes along periodically like the weather. Our monetary and fiscal regimes actually set out to create it and consider it a good thing. Lets not forgetboth Trump and Biden signed off on covid stimulus bills which combined injected roughly $7 TRILLION dollars directly into the economyeven as actual goods and services were dramatically reduced due to lockdowns. Deflation was the natural order of things in response to a crisis, a bullshit crisis in my view, but still a crisis. So of course Uncle Sam actively attempted to undo the natural desire to spend less and hold more cash during a time of uncertainty.

This $7 trillion was created on thefiscalside of things. It was not new Fed bank reserves exchanged for commercial bank assets as a roundabout monetization of Treasury debt, as we saw with quantitative easing. This was direct stimulus from the Treasury via Congress as express fiscal policy. Free money. This money went straight into the accounts of individuals (stimulus checks), state and local governments, millions of small businesses (PPP [Paycheck Protection Program] loans), the airline industry, and untold earmarks. This was actual cash, and it is being spent. So any economist who tells you todays inflation is somehow a surprise is either charitably misinformed or gaslighting.

This is a policy. Inflation is engineered. The difference between supposedly desirable 2 percent CPI [Consumer Price Index] and very bad, awful, no good 9 percent CPI is only one of degree. The same mindset produces both. But the inflationists insist a little bit of virus is good for us, like a vaccine So an express policy of some inflation is the mechanism to forestalltoo muchinflation. This is a curious position.

Second, inflation is nothing less than sanctioned state terror, and we ought to treat it as such. Its criminal. It makes us live in fear. Inflation is not just an economic issue, but in fact, produces deep cultural and social sickness in any society it touches. It makes business planning and entrepreneurshipwhich rely on profit and loss calculations using money pricesfar more difficult and risky, which means we get less of both. How do you measure money profits when the unit of measurement keeps falling in value? It erodes capital accumulation, the driver of greater productivity and material progress. So inflation destroys both existing wealth and future wealth, which never comes into being and thus diminishes the world our children and grandchildren inhabit. And it makes us poor and vulnerable in our senior years.

After all, saving is for chumps. Current one-year CD rates are below 3 percent, while inflation is at least 9 percent. So youre losing 6 points just by standing still! By the way, the last time official CPI approached double digits, in the early 80s, a one-year CD earned 15 percent. Id like to hear Jerome Powell explain that. By the way, ever since Alan Greenspan began this great experiment of four decades of lower and lower interest rates, guess who hasnt benefited? Poor people and subprime borrowers, who still pay well over 20 percent for their car loans and credit cards.

But here is an unspoken truth: inflation also makes usworse people. It degrades us morally. It almost forces us to choose current consumption over thrift. Economists call this high time preference, preferring material things today at the expense of saving or investing. It makes us live for the present at the expense of the future, the opposite of what all healthy societies do. Capital accumulation over time, the result of profit, saving, and investing, is how we all got here todaya world with almost unimaginable material wealth all around us. Inflationism reverses this.

So this very human impulse, to save for a rainy day and perhaps leave something for your children, is upended. Inflationism is inescapably an antihuman policy.

Third, hyperinflation can happen here. It may not happen, and it may not happen soon. But it might well happen. And even steady 10 percent inflation means prices double roughly every seven years. We can pretend the laws of economics dont apply to the worlds leading superpower, or that the worlds reserve currency is safe from the problems experienced by lesser countries. And its certainly true our reserve currency status insulates us and makes the world need dollars. Governments and industry mostly use US dollars to buy oil from OPEC countries, hence the term petrodollar. Its certainly true governments, central banks, large multinational companies, worldwide investment funds, sovereign wealth funds, and pension funds all hold plenty of US dollarsand thus in a perverse way share our interest in maintaining King Dollar. Its true we dont have easy historical examples of a world reserve currency, like gold, suffering a rapid devaluation across the world (even the Spanish silver devaluation of the 1500 and 1600swas not necessarily causedby a glut in circulating currency). So were in uncharted territory, especially given the fiscal and monetary excesses of the last twenty-five years and especially the last two years. But this only means the potential contagion is greater and more dangerous. The whole world can be sickened at once.

III. A Story: When Money Dies

But as most of you surely know by now, we dont turn the ship around or win hearts and minds simply with logic and facts and airtight arguments. We need stories, or narratives, in todays awful media parlance, to gain influence. We need emotional reactions. So I will suggest a story with plenty of pathos to shake people out of their complacency and sound the warning.

That story isWhen MoneyDies, Adam Fergussons brilliant cautionary account of hyperinflation in Weimar-era Germany. It is the story Americans desperately need to hear today.

Fergussons book should be assigned to central bankers stat (we wonder how many of them know of it). Its not a book about economic policy per seits a story, a historical account of folly and hubris on the part of German politicians and bureaucrats. Its the story of a disaster created by humans who imagined they could overcome markets by monetary fiat. Its a reminder that war and inflation are inextricably linked, that war finance leads nations to economic disaster and sets the stage for authoritarian bellicosity. We think Versailles and reparations created the conditions for Hitlers rise, but without the Reichbanks earlier suspension of its one-third gold reserve requirement in 1914, it seems unlikely Germany would have become a dominant European military power. Without inflationism, Hitler might have been a footnote.

Most of all,When Money Diesis a tale of privation and degradation. Not only for Germans, but also Austrians and Hungarians grappling with their own political upheavals and currency crises in the 1910s and 20s. In a particularly poignant chapter, Fergusson describes the travails of a Viennese widow named Anna Eisenmenger. A friend of mine, @popeofcapitalism on Twitter, sent me her diary from Amazon.

The story starts with her comfortable life as the wife of a doctor and mother to a wonderful daughter and three sons. They are talented and cultured and musical and upper middle class. They even socialize with Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, the Duchess of Hohenberg.

But in May 1914 their happy life is shattered. Ferdinand is assassinated at Sarajevo, and war breaks out. Wars cost money, and the gold standard wisely adopted by Austria-Hungary in 1892 is almost immediately seen as an impediment. So the government predictably begins to issue war bonds in huge numbers, and the central bank fires up the printing presses. This results in a sixteenfold increase in prices just during the war years.

But the human effects are catastrophic, even apart from the war itself.

Frau Eisenmenger is luckier than most Viennese women. She owns small investments which produce modest incomefixed in kronen. Her banker quietly urges her to immediately exchange any funds for Swiss francs. She demurs, as dealing in foreign currency has been made illegal. But soon she realizes he was right. There is probably a lesson here for all of us!

As the war unfolds, she is forced into black markets and pawning assets to procure food for her war-damaged children. Her currency and Austrian bonds become almost worthless. She exchanges her husbands gold watch for potatoes and coal. The downward spiral of her life, marked by hunger and hoarding anything with real value, happens so quickly she barely has time to adjust.

But her misery doesnt stop with the end of the war. On the contrary, the Saint-Germain Treaty in 1919 gives way to a period of hyperinflation: the money supply increases from 12 to 30 billion kronen in 1920, and to about 147 billion kronen at the end of 1921 (does this sound like America 2020, by the way?). By August 1922, consumer prices are fourteen thousand times greater than before the start of the war eight years earlier.

In just a few short years she endures countless tragedies, all made worse by privation, cold, and hunger. Her husband dies. Her daughter contracts tuberculosis and dies, leaving Frau Eisenmenger to take care of her infant daughter and young son. One son goes missing in the war, one son is blinded, and her son-in-law becomes crippled following the loss of both legs. Food and coal are rationed, so her apartment is a miserable hoveland she is forced to dodge searches by the Food Police looking for illegal hoarding. Ultimately, she is shot in the lung by her own Communist son, Karl, in a fit of rage.

There is a haunting and historically accurate silent film about conditions in Vienna during this era calledThe Joyless Street, starring a young Greta Garbo. Her character sees everything deteriorate around her; even her father beats her with his cane for returning home without food. Once friendly neighbors become suspicious of each others stores of bread and cheese, while prostitution becomes rampant. Angry people jostle in line, waiting for the butcher to open; when he does, only the most attractive women receive the scraps of meat available that day. Fistfights become common. Starving children beg for food in front of restaurants and cafes like stray dogs. Everything familiar and beautiful in society becomes degraded and cheapened seemingly overnight.

Like a Stephen King horror movie, something very familiar changes into a strange and menacing place. Your neighborhood takes on a different light. People you thought you knew became malevolent strangers. Scapegoating, blame, and snitching become commonplace.

Is this beginning to sound familiar, especially after Bidens sick speech the other night?

So, next time one of these sociopaths in our political class wants to spend a few trillion more to pay for a green new deal or a war with China or free college, remember Frau Eisenmengers story.

How do we apply this grim historical lesson from the Weimar period to America today? How do we tell this story?

First, we explain inflationism in human terms, to personalize it and de-bamboozle it. Make monetary policy vital and immediate, not boring and dry and technocratic. Again, there are enormous moral and civilization components to monetary policy. Inflation not only harms our economy, it makes us worse people: profligate, shortsighted, lazy, and unconcerned with future generations. Professor Guido Hlsmann literally wrote the book on this. Its calledThe Ethics of Money Production. This is maybe the greatest untold story in America today: the story of not only how the Fed fundamentally shifted our economy from one of production to consumption,but what it did to us as people. Dont let them hide behind complex Fed speak the simple reality: monetary policy is nothing less than criminal theft from future generations, from savers, and from the poorest Americans, who are furthest from the money spigot. The idea that reasonably intelligent laypeople cannot understand monetary policy, that it is too important and complex for anyone but experts, is nonsense. We should expose it.

Second, ridicule the absurd idea that policy can make us richer. More goods and services, produced more and more efficiently, thanks to capitaland thereby creating price deflationmake us richer. Thats the only way. Not by legislative or monetary fiat.

So we should attack any notion of public policy and especially monetary policy. Inflationism creates a fake economy, a make-believe economy,as Axios recently put it. A fake economy depends on enormous levels of ongoing fiscal and monetary intervention. We call this financialization, but we all have a sense that our prosperity is borrowed. We all feel it. Capital markets are degraded: a lot of money moves around without creating any value for anyone. Companies dont necessarily make profits or pay dividends; all that matters to shareholders is selling their stock for capital gains. It always requires a new Ponzi buyer. But we know intuitively this isnt right: consider a restaurant or dry cleaner which operated without profit for years in the hope of selling for a gain years or decades later. Only the distorted incentives created by inflationism make this mindset possible. So down with policywhat we need is sound money!

Finally, let us not fear being accused of hyperbole or alarmism. Let me ask you this: what happens if were wrong, and what happens if theyre wrong? What they are doing, meaning central bankers and national treasuries, is unprecedented. Fake money is infinite, real resources are not. Hyperinflation may not be around the corner or even years away; no one can predict such a thing. But at some point the US economy must create real organic growth if we hope to maintain living standards and avoid an ugly inflationary reality. No amount of monetary or fiscal engineering can take the place of capital accumulation and higher productivity. More money and credit is no substitute for more, better, and cheaper goods and services. Political money cant work, and we should never be afraid to attack it root and branch. We need private money, the only money immune from the inescapable political incentive to vote for things now and pay for them later. If this is radical, so be it.

History shows us how money dies. Yes, it can happen here. Only a fool thinks otherwise.

Call 1-888-GOLD-160 and speak with a Precious Metals Specialist today!

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Inflation Is State-Sponsored Terrorism - SchiffGold

PITTSBURGH Albert Pujols continued his trek toward to 700 home runs Saturday night but he stopped by Alex Rodriguezs house first.

The Cardinals first baseman ripped his 696th career homer, a first-pitch, 418-foot rocket to left field in the sixth inning to spark a rally which eventually led to a 7-5 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The drive off a slider from Pittsburgh right-hander JT Brubaker enabled Pujols to catch former American League slugger Rodriguez for fourth place on the most majestic of baseballs offensive lists.

Barry Bonds had 762 home runs. Henry Aaron had 755. Babe Ruth had 714. Pujols has 22 games to hit four.

His 17th home run of the season erased a 3-1 Pittsburgh lead. An eighth-inning single, his third hit of the game, erased another Pittsburgh lead built after Pirates star rookie Oneil Cruz homered off JoJo Romero in the seventh.

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Cruz has hit for the cycle in the first two games of this series.

The Cardinals took their first and only lead in the ninth when Molina singled and Paul DeJong, who had been nothing for 26, blooped a single to right, sending pinch runner Lars Nootbaar to third.

The next two ground balls did not plate a run but designated hitter Paul Goldschmidt barely fouled off two full-count pitches before drawing a walk. Nolan Arenado, who had been hitless in four at-bats, lined a bases-loaded double off Wil Crowe to send home three runners and the Cardinals modest losing streak had ended at two.

Fifty-five game-tying HRs for No. 5

Pujols game-tying homer was the 55th of his career, equaling Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt and future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre for 10th place on that career list. On another list, Pujols made Brubaker his 452nd home run victim, extending his career lead in that category.

After Pujols crossed the plate, the first man he met was the on-deck hitter, Molina, Pujols longtime teammate and friend. They embraced and then Pujols ducked into the dugout to accept more congratulations but, respectful of the Pirates, he did not answer the plea for a curtain call by the fans behind the Cardinals dugout.

For his career, Pujols has 33 homers at PNC Park, most by any visiting player and he is 14th on the list for anyone who has played there in 22 seasons visitors or Pirates.

After a bumpy beginning, Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty worked a scoreless third, fourth and fifth innings in a no-decision in which he threw 87 pitches over five innings. Flaherty allowed two homers, walked four and did not strike out a batter for only the second time in his 95 career starts. On June 8, 2019, he failed to fan anybody over 3 2/3 innings in a game at Chicagos Wrigley Field.

Pirates rock Flaherty for two homers in two innings

After an impressive outing this past Monday in which he gave up just one run in five innings, Flaherty, making his second big-league appearance since coming off the 60-day injured list, was cuffed for home runs in each of the first two innings.

Flaherty induced a double play started by second baseman Nolan Gorman in the first inning after giving up a leadoff hit to Cruz, who has five hits in the first two games of the series.

But Flaherty left a 92 mile an hour fastball over the plate to Rodolfo Castro, who hit his seventh homer to deep right center.

The Cardinals wasted a two-out double in the second by Pujols, who had been nothing for 12. Molina walked but DeJong, two for 48, grounded into a forceout.

Flaherty walked KeBryan Hayes to open the Pittsburgh second and Jack Suwinski drilled his 16th homer to right off a 93.4 mph fastball.

The Pirates threatened further when Cal Mitchell doubled after a walk to Michael Chavis.

But Tyler Heineman lined to first baseman Pujols and Flaherty popped off the mound for Cruzs bouncer and threw home to get Chavis. Flaherty escaped still down 3-0 by retiring Bryan Reynolds on a fly to center.

The Pirates kept attacking but came up empty in the third, helped by a diving play on Castro by Pujols. Flaherty issued his third walk and allowed a two-out single to Suwinski before Chavez flied to right.

Four innings, 78 pitches

Flaherty blanked the Pirates again in the fourth, with the help of right fielder Brendan Donovan, who threw out former Cardinals minor league catcher Heineman, trying to take second on a hit to right.

Donovan stars on offense, too

Donovan cut into the Pirates lead with his fourth homer with one out in the fifth after center fielder Reynolds had made a sliding catch on DeJong.

Corey Dickerson singled for his second hit in the fifth. He moved up on Goldschmidts groundout but Arenado left another runner, flying to right. The Cardinals were nothing for five with runners in scoring position at that point.

Helsley allows first earned run on road

Closer Ryan Helsley gained the save but allowed a run in the ninth, the first earned run he had allowed in 23 road innings this season.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols (5) walks to the dugout after being replaced by a pinch runner, after driving in a run with a single off Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Robert Stephenson during the eighth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. The Cardinals won 7-5.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols, right, is hugged by Yadier Molina (4) after hitting a two-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols doubles off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker during the second inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty delivers during the first inning of the team's baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates' Rodolfo Castro (14) is greeted by Ben Gamel (18) as he heads to the dugout after hitting a solo home run off St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty during the first inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker delivers during the first inning of the team's baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates' Rodolfo Castro runs the bases after hitting a solo home run off St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Jack Flaherty during the first inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker delivers during the first inning of the team's baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols tosses his bat after hitting a two-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols (5) rounds third to greetings from third base coach Ron 'Pop' Warner after hitting a two-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols, top, rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker (34) during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

The Cardinals' Albert Pujols is greeted by Yadier Molina after hitting a two-run home run in the sixth inningSaturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in Pittsburgh.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols watches his two-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols (5) is hugged by Yadier Molina after hitting a two-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols (5) hits a two-run home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals' Nolan Arenado, right, stands on third base and celebrates with third base coach Ron 'Pop' Warner after driving in three runs with a double off Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Wil Crowe during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols singles off Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Robert Stephenson, driving in a run, during the eighth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. The Cardinals won 7-5.

St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols, top, celebrates with first base coach Stubby Clapp (82) after driving in a run with a single off Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Robert Stephenson during the eighth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. The Cardinals won 7-5.

St. Louis Cardinals' Lars Nootbaar, left, is tagged out by Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Tyler Heineman during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022. The Cardinals won 7-5.

St. Louis Cardinals' Brendan Donovan (33) returns to the dugout after hitting a solo home run off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher JT Brubaker during the fifth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina (4) tags out Pittsburgh Pirates' Michael Chavis, center, with umpire cross Torres, left, making the call during the second inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates' Oneil Cruz (15) celebrates with Rodolfo Castro (14) as he returns to the dugout after hitting a solo home run off St. Louis Cardinals relief pitcher JoJo Romero during the seventh inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022.

Keep up with the latest Cardinals coverage from our award-winning team of reporters and columnists.

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Quick hits: Pujols clouts 696th homer to tie for fourth all-time as Cardinals rally to win - St. Louis Post-Dispatch

My phone started buzzing withmessages as soon as Queen Elizabeth IIs death wasannounced: friends and formercolleagues, politicians and ambassadors, all wanting to express their sorrow and their admiration forour sovereign. AsIwrite, I can count 51 WhatsApps and texts.

All of them are from outside the Commonwealth, and the vast majority from republics. Many of the people sending them, especially the Americans, see the repudiation of monarchy as an important part of their own identity. One friend, an old-fashioned lefty from Vermont, was typical: Even I, a resolute republican, am an admirer of how Elizabeth conducted herself in her anachronisticrole. My condolences.

Americans tend to profess admiration for the woman who wore the crown rather than for the crown itself, much as one might admire the Dalai Lama without being a Buddhist. Yet, the more you think about it, the harder it is to separate the office-holder from the office. Had Elizabeth Windsor had the baby brother she used to pray for as a girl, she would doubtless have lived a blameless life of rural domesticity. The virtues that the world admired in her discretion, dignity and, above all, duty were admirable precisely because they werethe virtues of a head of state.

Republicans might retort that being the head of state in a constitutional monarchy is hardly a demanding job. The role has been filled in Britain by, among others, two foreigners, a rake and a madman. Only one British monarch the late Queens uncle wasdeemed to fall short of the minimal standards required.

Yet this is to miss the point. Aconstitutional monarchy is not theretomagnify the ruler; we leave that sortof thing to peoples republics. No, a constitutional monarchy is there to legitimise the government, to elevate and ennoble the states core functions and, in the last analysis, to forestall the possibility of civil war.

Yes, civil war. Forty-three per cent of Americans, according to YouGov, expect such an outcome within the next decade. Before you dismiss that finding, consider why civil wars happen. They typically begin, not because people disagree over what policies their country should adopt, but because they disagree about who has the right to issue the orders. While ethnic, religious or doctrinal differences might furnish the combustible material, the match is almost always struck when someone disputes the authority of the presumed government. Now ask yourself whether such a scenario is impossible in the US. For atleast 20 years, there has been a growing tendency there for both parties to see elections as contingent, going immediately to court if they lose.

After the 2020 election, the habit of lawfare turned into something altogether more sinister. In defeat, Donald Trump cajoled various state authorities to declare a different result and, later, incited a mob to march on the Capitol in an attempt to stop the vote being certified.

Suppose that, in 2024, Trump stands again and loses again. Does anyone seriously imagine that he would graciously accept the verdict of the ballot box? Of course not. Once again, he would wheedle, threaten and bully in an attempt to get a different electoral college empanelled. But whereas in 2020 patriotic Republican officials stood by their oaths to the constitution, many of those officials have since been turfed out by Trumpians who got elected precisely by denying that election result.

It is no longer unthinkable that some state administrations, alleging fraud, might appoint their own slates of electoral college delegates. It is possible to imagine two rival electoral colleges choosing two rival presidents, and the 50 states dividing over which to recognise.

Yes, that outcome might still be unlikely. But it is no longer inconceivable. Here, by contrast, such a situation simply could not come about. We have an umpire whose authority all sides respect. Whoever the King recognised would be the headof His Majestys Government. That is what a constitutional monarch is: a military commander who is not ageneral, a head of state who is not apolitician, a focus for national loyaltywho is above ideology and beyond faction.

Dont get me wrong: I love the United States with an intensity that even I sometimes find embarrassing. Irevere the US Constitution in a way that only a few Ron Paul-type literalists still do. Nonetheless, at this distance in time, we can surely admit one thing. The American Revolution, however happy its consequences, was based onwhat turned out to be a falsehood.

In Great Britain, as in the Thirteen Colonies, the 1760s gave birth to an odd conspiracy theory to the effect that the Hanoverians were trying to roll back the powers of Parliament andrule as mediaeval despots. How people ever came to believe this of thedim, dull, decent George III is a mystery. In any event, it turned out tobe utter nonsense. Democracy continued to advance in Britain as inNorth America. Far from descending into autocracy, we remained, in effect, a crowned republic.

Indeed, by the time of the American Revolution, we had already had almost a century of parliamentary supremacy. Since 1689, MPs had determined who should be head of state. They did so when they laid out the succession terms for William and Mary, and they have carried on doing so since most recently in 2013, when the 15 Realms decided, democratically, to alter the rules so that elder daughters should inherit the throne before younger sons.

None of the flummery associated with the crown golden coaches, state openings, military reviews detracts from our democracy. Around four fifths of us presently support the monarchy. But if that majority changed, and voters preferred a republic, no one doubts that their wishes would prevail. That is the beautiful contradiction inherent in a constitutional monarchy. The monarch is sovereign, yet serves at our pleasure.

The late Roger Scruton expressed the paradox eloquently when he likened the magic of monarchy to the enchanting light from the top of a Christmas tree, which the British people perfectly well remembered having climbed up and placed there themselves.

In the United States, where there is no such enchantment, there is a growing prospect of political violence. Not so in Canada, distinguished from its southern neighbour largely by the fact of its monarchy. There, the parliamentary system is unquestioned and political disagreements remain civil. And not by coincidence.

To become a Canadian citizen, you have to swear an oath of loyalty to the monarch, and the accompanying literature explains why in language that neatly makes the case for having amonarch above politics:

In Canada, we profess our loyalty to a person who represents all Canadians and not to a document such as a constitution, a banner such as a flag, or a geopolitical entity such as a country. In our constitutional monarchy, these elements are encompassed by the Sovereign (Queen or King). It is a remarkably simple yet powerful principle: Canada is personified by theSovereign just as the Sovereign ispersonified by Canada.

Canada and the United States are, of course, nations that are exceptionally close to us, as well as to one another. Both are old and successful democracies. Consider, though, some of the countries with a less developed tradition of constitutional rule.

Here are the states I can think of thatabolished their monarchies duringthe late Queens 70-year reign: Afghanistan, Burundi, Egypt, Ethiopia, Greece, Iraq, Iran, Laos, Libya, Nepal, Rwanda, Tunisia, Vietnam, Yemen. Of that list, I reckon only Greece can be said to have made a success of the change. In all the others, there have been times when ordinary people longed for a neutral referee who was neither a politician nor a general.

CS Lewis, as so often, expressed it beautifully: Where men are forbidden to honour a king, they honour millionaires, athletes, or film stars instead; even famous prostitutes or gangsters. For spiritual nature, like bodily nature, will be served; deny itfood and it will gobble poison.

It is striking to see how many of theworlds most liberal, tranquil, contented and egalitarian countries turn out to be constitutional monarchies: Australia, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway. Even more striking is how many of these states share the same monarch: King Charles III, 34th great-grandson of Kenneth MacAlpin, 33rd great-grandson of Brian Boru, and 33rd great-grandson ofAlfred the Great and, according to some genealogists, the 41st great-grandson of the Prophet Mohammed. Not a bad record, all told.

God Save the King.

Continued here:
It's no coincidence that the most successful democracies are constitutional monarchies - The Telegraph