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Not a ‘total shock’ if stocks plummet 25% and gold soars 50% by October, says Ron Paul – MarketWatch

Posted: July 4, 2017 at 7:46 am

The U.S. economy is nowhere near as strong as the prevailing view on Wall Street leads investors to believe. That means a painful stock-market correction could hit as soon as October, according to libertarian firebrand Ron Paul, the medical doctor, former Republican congressman and repeat presidential candidate.

That scenario would land the S&P 500 SPX, +0.23% flirting with 1,800 and gold GCQ7, +0.48% above $1,860 an ounce.

Need to Know: Why investors should brace for a devastating oil shock ahead

Paul is an unabashed bear who has been critical of the Trump administration and more so, the Federal Reserve, who he says has pinned interest rates at historic lows for too long.

Read: Ed Snowden talks with Ron Paul about the deep state and whos really in control

I think its a very precarious market, and the Fed better be very careful. Since they are incapable of knowing what to do, I dont expect much good to come out of anything they do, Paul said in a CNBC Futures Now interview. There are so many mistakes made out there that the correction is almost unlimited.

Mark Hulbert: Heres how hard it is to get out of stocks before a bear market starts

Notably, Paul offered a similar prediction on the business network about a year ago. Since then, the S&P 500 is up more than 20%, while the Dow industrials DJIA, +0.61% is up some 24% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.49% has surged more than 30%, each having knocked out record highs over that stretch.

Safe-haven gold, for its part, has logged a nearly 8% gain so far this year, according to FactSet data tracking futures markets.

Its just such a run that leaves Paul nervous, he countered.

People have been convinced that everything is wonderful right now and that stocks are going to go up forever, Paul said. I dont happen to buy this. The old rules always exist, and theres too much debt and too much mal-investment. The adjustment will have to come.

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Is Libertarianism a ‘Stealth Plan’ To Destroy America? – Reason (blog)

Posted: at 7:45 am

Viking, AmazonAs its title suggests, Democracy in Chains: The Deep History of the Radical Right's Stealth Plan for America, by Duke historian Nancy MacLean, is filled with all sorts of melodramatic flourishes and revelations of supposed conspiracies. Chains, deep history, radicals, stealthis this nonfiction or an Oliver Stone film? Even the cover depicts a smoke-filled room filled with ample-chinned, shadowy figures! This book, virtually every page announces, isn't simply about the Nobel laureate economist James Buchanan and his "public choice" theory, which holds in part that public-sector actors are bound by the same self-interest and desire to grow their "market share" as private-sector actors are.

No, MacLean is after much-bigger, more-sinister game, documenting what she believes is

the utterly chilling story of the ideological origins of the single most powerful and least understood threat to democracy today: the attempt by the billionaire-backed radical right to undo democratic governance...[and] a stealth bid to reverse-engineer all of America, at both the state and the national levels, back to the political economy and oligarchic governance of midcentury Virginia, minus the segregation.

The billionaires in question, of course, are Koch brothers Charles and David, who have reached a level of villainy in public discourse last rivaled by Sacco and Vanzetti. (David Koch is a trustee of Reason Foundation, the nonprofit that publishes this website; Reason also receives funding from the Charles Koch Foundation.) Along the way, MacLean advances many sub-arguments, such as the notion that the odious, hypocritical, and archly anti-capitalistic 19th-century slavery apologist John C. Calhoun is the spirit animal of contemporary libertarianism. In fact, Buchanan and the rest of us all are nothing less than "Calhoun's modern understudies."

Such unconvincing claims ("the Marx of the Master Class," as Calhoun was dubbed by Richard Hofstadter, was openly hostile to the industrialism, wage labor, and urbanization that James Buchanan took for granted) are hard to keep track of, partly because of all the rhetorical smoke bombs MacLean is constantly lobbing. In a characteristic example, MacLean early on suggests that libertarianism isn't "merely a social movement" but "the story of something quite different, something never before seen in American history":

Could it beand I use these words quite hesitantly and carefullya fifth-column assault on American democratic governance?

Calling attention to the term's origins to describe Franco's covert, anti-modern allies in the Spanish Civil War, MacLean writes

the term "fifth column" has been applied to stealth supporters of an enemy who assist by engaging in propaganda and even sabotage to prepare the way for its conquest. It is a fraught term among scholars, not least because the specter of a secretive, infiltrative fifth column has been used in instrumental ways by the powerful such as in the Red Scare of the Cold War era to conjure fear and lead citizens and government to close ranks against dissent, with grave costs for civil liberties. That, obviously, is not my intent in using the term....

And yet it's the only term up for MacLean's job, since "the concept of a fifth column does seem to be the best one available for capturing what is distinctive in a few key dimensions about this quest to ensure the supremacy of capital." Sure, "fifth column" is a dirty, lowdown, suspect term among historians because using it trades in hysteria at the service of the ruling class rather than rational analysis intended to help the downtrodden. But come on, people, we're in a twilight struggle here, with a movement whose goals have included, among other things, ending censorship; opening the borders to goods and people from around the world; abolishing the draft and reducing militarism; legalizing abortion, drugs, and alternative lifestyles; reforming criminal justice and sentencing; focusing on how existing government operations, especially K-12 schools, have hurt poor and minority Americans; and doing away with occupational licensing and other barriers to entry for business owners, among other things. So much for hesitation on MacLean's part. Fifth column it is! As for carefulness, it's worth noting in passing that MacLean identifies former Attorney General Ed Meese and foreign-policy hawk Bill Kristol as libertarians, which must be as much of a shock to them as it is to, well, actual libertarians.

Clearly this sort of book, published by a major house (Viking) and written by an eminent historian (MacLean is a chaired professor at Duke and author of highly regarded books), is ideological catnip to people who dislike libertarianism and its growing influence in politics and culture. At the increasingly hard-left New Republic, Alex Shephard introduces an interview with MacLean by writing that Democracy in Chains "exposes the frightening intellectual roots of the radical right, as well as its ultimate ambition: to erode American democracy." At NPR, novelist Genevieve Valentine writes

As MacLean lays out in their own words, these men developed a strategy of misinformation and lying about outcomes until they had enough power that the public couldn't retaliate against policies libertarians knew were destructive. (Look no further than Flint, MacLean says, where the Koch-funded Mackinac Center was behind policies that led to the water crisis.)

Let's leave aside the fact that Flint's water supply contamination was due to decades of local mismanagement and a stimulus project gone wrong, hardly the sort of thing that mustache-twirling libertarians espouse. And let's ignore the shibboleth Koch-funded for the time being (go here for a realistic appraisal of the Kochs' influence on the modern libertarian movement). Democracy in Chains is chicken soup for the souls of liberals, progressives, and members of the "resistance" who want to believe that libertarians don't just want to destroy or reform ineffective and inefficient public-sector agencies and institutions, but actually want to kill people or destroy them irreparably. Because really, how else can you make a buck in a free market, right?

If liberals and leftists are uncritically celebrating MacLean's attack, scholars and writers with specific and general knowledge of Buchanan's work and libertarianism are taking a more jaundiced view. Reason will be publishing a review-essay in the coming weeks but in the interim, here's a survey of some of the sharpest rejoinders to date.

Historian Phillip W. Magness, trained at Buchanan's former perch of George Mason University, takes particular issue with MacLean's linking of Buchanan to characters such as Calhoun and the poet Donald Davidson, the leader of the self-styled Fugitives and Agrarians in the 20th-century South. Like Calhoun, the Agrarians treated capitalism and modernity with contempt, as a sort of mirror image of an equally soulless and totalitarian communism. MacLean asserts that Davidson, who railed against an increasingly centralized "Leviathan" state, was central to Buchanan's worldview. But Magness notes that Buchanan never studied with him nor ever quoted him in his collected works. As with her non-hesitant, careless use of "fifth column," MacLean's real purpose in linking Buchanan with Davidson is to smear the former. Writes Magness:

MacLean has a very specific reason for making this claim, and she returns to it at multiple points in her book. The Agrarians, in addition to spawning a southern literary revival (the novelist Robert Penn Warren was one of their members), were also segregationists. By connecting them to Buchanan, she bolsters one of the primary charges of her book: an attempt to link Buchanan's economic theories to a claimed resentment over Brown v. Board and the subsequent defeat of racial segregation in 1960s Virginia.

In another post, Magness notes when MacLean tries to link Buchanan to Calhoun, she instead starts citing work by Murray Rothbard, who actually was harshly critical of Buchanan. This sort of slippery maneuver permeates Democracy in Chains, as Case Western's Jonathan Adler documents at the Volokh Conspiracy blog in The Washington Post. At Medium, Russ Roberts writes about MacLean's treatment of George Mason economist Tyler Cowen, who also directs the Koch-funded Mercatus Center. MacLean suggests that Cowen welcomes the weakening of governmental checks and balances because doing so supports her thesis that libertarians want to take over the government by "stealth." As Roberts points out, MacLean is guilty of intellectual malpractice:

MacLean left out the word "While" that begins Cowen's sentence. Then she left off the key qualifier that completes the sentencethe point that the downside risk of weakening checks and balances is substantial. There is nothing here suggesting Cowen is in favor of weakening democracy or the Constitution. By quoting only a piece of Cowen's sentence, MacLean reverses his meaning.

Unfortunately, MacLean does not just quote Cowen out of context. She ignores anything in Cowen's essay that conflicts with her portrayal of Cowen as a sinister enemy of American institutions and democracy.

MacLean's Duke colleague, the political scientist Michael Munger, has authored the most exhaustive and harshly critical review of Democracy in Chains to date. Writing for the Independent Institute, Munger damningly characterizes the book as

a work of speculative historical fiction. There is considerable research underpinning the speculation, and since MacLean is careful about footnoting only things that actually did happen she cannot be charged with fabricating facts. But most of the book, and all of its substantive conclusions, are idiosyncratic interpretations of the facts that she selects from a much larger record, as is common in the speculative-history genre. There is nothing wrong about speculation, of course, but there is nothing persuasive about it either, in terms of drawing reliable conclusions about history.

The entire essay comes as close to required reading as any libertarian would decree. Munger is not simply scoring points or picking apart the argument made by someone from a different tribe or camp; he's actually laying bare how ideologically motivated texts paper over gaps in evidence and logic by focusing on small details to the exclusion of actually giving an accurate view of the larger picture. In the grip of a thesis she wants to be true, MacLean simply sifts through huge amounts of data and evidence, keeping only small chips of bones and fossils that she can use to construct a skeleton with which to scare people who already agree with her.

The contribution of Democracy in Chains...is to do two things...: Identify James Buchanan as the focal point of the revolution, and identify the content of Public Choice research and teaching as anti-Constitutional and anti-democratic.... Buchanan did not believe in unlimited majority rule. But then, as Buchanan often rightly said, nobody believes in unlimited majority rule. Democracy is and must be a balancing of, on the one hand, the rights of minorities, and, on the other, the ability of the majority to have its way within the domain established as "political" by the constitution. That's another thing that is remarkable about Democracy in Chains: MacLean does not assign Buchanan a straw man position. She (correctly) gives Buchanan's position as being the mainstream view, the one that everyone actually agrees with. And then she tries to defend the straw man position, the one that no one actually believes. Remarkable. The position she assigns Buchanan is this: He thought that democracy should be limited, to protect minorities. Um...okay. Yes, that's right. We all believe that.

Which isn't to say that Munger finds no value in the book:

Democracy in Chains is well-written, and the research it contains is both interesting and in many cases illuminating. But as an actual history, as a reliable account of the centrality of the work of James Buchanan in a gigantic conspiracy designed to end democracy in America, it turns far away from its mark. It is the story of an alternative past that never actually happened.

Despite its central failings, I too found the book interesting, if mostly as a way of understanding the ways in which libertarian thought is considered by those hostile to it. Ultimately, Democracy in Chains reveals less about a not-so-shadowy group of people who, as a t-shirt puts it, are "diligently plotting to take over the World and leave you alone" and more about progressives and liberals who choose to live in a dream world.

Other takes worth a read include ones by Jonah Goldberg, David Bernstein, David Henderson, Steve Horwitz, and Jason Brennan.

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There’s No Upper Limit to Human Lifespan, Argue Scientists – Inverse

Posted: at 7:45 am

The quest for immortality is an oft repeated story throughout history, but its only in the past century that the movement has pivoted from the annals of religious escapades and spiritual endeavors, to the realms of scientific and technological research. But is it possible? A study published in Nature last October suggested no humans beings, in the speciess current state, seem have maxed out at 115 years. Five separate research teams, however, are strongly contesting that notion.

Those groups new studies, published as a series in the new issue of Nature, together rebut the notion that there is even a finite age to the human body.

The 2016 study, led by molecular geneticist Jan Vijg from Albert Einstein College of Medicine, essentially analyzed global demographic data from the last century and appeared to illustrate that peak age in humans plateaued at 114.9 years. Vijg and his colleagues argued that this was most likely the natural age limit of human beings, and the probably of living past up to or over age 125 was less than 1 in 10,000.

Jim Vaupel, an expert in ageing at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany and one of the authors of the new papers, told The Guardian, The evidence points towards no looming limit. At present the balance of the evidence suggests that if there is a limit it is above 120, perhaps much above and perhaps there is not a limit at all.

The new papers take on a multi-pronged approach to critique that conclusion, utilizing data in several different ways to portray more optimistic interpretations of human mortality limits. One paper, for example, presents a scenario where the data suggests the mortality is still steadily rising, and that by the year 2,300, the oldest person could be 150 years old.

A big complaint about the 2016 study is that it split the data into two time periods according to the year 1995, where it was the determined the plateau of human age began. The the trends calculated after 1995 showed a flat gradient that confirmed that hypothesis, which Siegfried Hekimi from McGill University in Montreal, one of the authors of the new papers, says is the wrong kind of statistical approach.

Vijg, for his part, has suggested in comments to The Guardian and The Scientist that maximum lifespan is a hard topic for many people to discuss. He defends his analytical methods as part of the variable way statistics can be conducted these days.

Perhaps Vijgs best argument is one he hasnt even made yet that human lifespan perhaps needs to be finite*, and that evolution has ensured this limit. The longer individuals in a given species live, the more resources they take up to keep living resources that cannot go to newborns and others who are of ripe reproductive age.

There many other quibbles with the 2016 paper the new studies dig into, but perhaps one of the biggest problems is simply the fact that longevity studies are based on a very small sample size. There arent a whole lot of people alive (or who have lived very lengthy lives) who can help demonstrate what a maximum age limit might be. Age studies are essentially limited by the fact that reaching a maximum age is extremely difficult at least naturally.

Of course, there are plenty of rich people looking to change that. Hey there, Silicon Valley!

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Ancient tower of skulls found in Mexico City – New York Post

Posted: at 7:44 am

A tower of more than 650 human skulls has been unearthed in Mexico City.

Reuters

As the Jets get close to training camp, I am...

This ones a real head-scratcher.

A tower of more than 650 human skulls including the craniums of women and children has been unearthed deep beneath the heart of Mexico City, according to a report.

The shocking find has raised new questions about sacrifice in the ancient Aztec Empire, as historians had believed Mesomaerican cultures mostly used the severed heads of captured warriors to adorn tzompantli or skull racks, Reuters reports.

We were expecting just men, obviously young men, as warriors would be, and the thing about the women and children is that youd think they wouldnt be going to war, biological anthropologist Rodrigo Bolanos told the agency. Something is happening that we have no record of, and this is really new.

Archaeologists discovered the skulls caked in lime in the cylindrical edifice near the site of Templo Mayor one of the main temples in the Aztec capital Tenochtitlan, which later became Mexico City, according to the report.

The tower likely formed part of the Huey Tzompantli, a massive array of skulls that terrified Spanish conquistadors when they captured the city under Hernan Cortes in 1521, the news outlet reported.

Andres de Tapia, a Spanish soldier who accompanied Cortes, mentioned tens of thousands of skulls in his account of the conquest, archaeologist Raul Barrera said.

The skull tower is almost 20 feet in diameter, and stands on the corner of the chapel of Huitzilopochtli, the Aztec god of the sun, war and human sacrifice, according to the report. Its base has yet to be unearthed.

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America isn’t a normal country – Washington Post

Posted: at 7:44 am

At moments of institutional conflict and uncertainty, Americans naturally turn to the Constitution. But at times of anger, division and national self-doubt, the best American leaders have helped us turn to a different document: the Declaration of Independence. That few seem to be doing so now in our season of division and doubt is another sign that we lack real leaders.

The Declaration is an odd source of national pride since it can be properly read only in a spirit of humility. It refers to a transcendent order of justice and human dignity that existed prior to the nation and that exposed the nations horrifying hypocrisies. (How is it, taunted Samuel Johnson, that we hear the loudest yelps for liberty among the drivers of Negroes?) We hold these truths makes us vulnerable to the judgment of those truths.

American independence, of course, involved more than humility. It was an act of defiance rooted in an arm-long list of grievances. In Worcester, Mass., after the Declaration was signed, patriots drank to the toast: Perpetual itching without the benefit of scratching to the enemies of America.

But, as Abraham Lincoln noted, the Declaration could have established national independence without its second paragraph about the human rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The assertion that all men are created equal, Lincoln argued, was of no practical use in effecting our separation from Great Britain. As he saw it, the Founders, while constrained by the political realities of their time, set out a non-arbitrary, timeless truth for future use.

They meant simply to declare the right, said Lincoln, so that the enforcement of it might follow as fast as circumstances should permit. They meant to set up a standard maxim for free society, which should be familiar to all, and revered by all; constantly looked to, constantly labored for ... even though never perfectly attained.

Why is that maxim so important? At one level, Lincolns answer was bluntly practical. If liberty is denied to anyone, it could eventually be denied to you. And when you have stricken down the principles of the Declaration of Independence, he said, and thereby consigned the Negro to hopeless and eternal bondage, are you quite sure that the demon will not turn and rend you? Will not the people then be ready to go down beneath the tread of any tyrant who may wish to rule them?

But Lincoln also saw the Declaration as the embodiment of a moral ideal. It was not the mere matter of the separation of the colonies from the motherland; but something in that Declaration giving liberty, not alone to the people of this country, but hope to the world for all future time. It was that which gave promise that in due time the weights should be lifted from the shoulders of all men, and that all should have an equal chance.

By definition, America cant be a normal nation. It stands for more than getting and keeping. Its greatness is a greatness of spirit. And its failures such as slavery, segregation and the shameful treatment of Native Americans are not only legal but also spiritual failures. They are blasphemy against our countrys creed.

Does anyone think or talk like this now? They need to. There is so much dehumanization in our politics, and the main role of the Declaration is humanization. Its ideals are desperately needed and roundly ignored.

How do we measure our loss? It might be a useful exercise to take political arguments and apply the Declaration as a kind of suffix. So: We should fear Latino migrants as gang members and murderers ... and all men and women are created equal. Or: Muslims are a threat and should be kept out of the country ... and all men and women are created equal. Or: Spending on AIDS treatments for foreigners is a waste ... and all men and women are created equal. Or: The human cost of a failing health or education system doesnt matter ... and all men and women are created equal. Or: Human beings can be dismembered up to the moment before birth ... and all men and women are created equal.

When our founding ideals are forgotten, it is the vulnerable and powerless who suffer first and worst. Lincoln accused politicians who dismiss or play down the Declaration of blowing out the moral lights around us. When someone calls us back to that faded document, and begins to rekindle Americas conscience, it will be a sign we have found a real leader again.

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Get Ready. The Tesla Model 3 Goes on Sale This Week. – Futurism

Posted: at 7:43 am

In Brief The Tesla Model 3 is about to hit the streets. CEO Elon Musk announced via Twitter that, after passing all regulatory requirements, the first series of Model 3s could be out by Friday this week. Arrival of the Tesla Model 3

When it comes to Elon Musks ventures, it seems like theres alwayssomething to look forward to. This past weekendSpaceX launched itsthird mission in nine days which came after their historic doubleheader last weekend.Then theres the progress on MusksBoring tunnels under L.A.But the most recent announcement hadmore than 400,000 peoplein wait; those who have signed up for pre-orders for the Tesla Model 3.

In a tweet Sunday night, Musk said that the Model 3 has already passed regulatory hurdles.

He expects that the serial number 1 (SN1) for Teslas electric vehicle will be finished by the end of this week. Musk also said in a second tweet that the handover party for the first 30 Model 3 customers will take place on the 28th of this month.

Musk was clearly pleased to make the announcement, and hed done the legwork ahead of potential questions, too. He also shared on Twitter just how manyModel 3s are expected to berolled out by the end of 2017. Continuing on in his Twitter thread, the Tesla CEO said that they expect 100 cars by August and over1,500 by September. By December, Tesla hopes to be producing20,000 Model 3s per month.

It should come as no surprise that Tesla has ramped up production for the Model 3. Previous reports revealedtheModel 3 production line runs onwhat Musk called an alien dreadnaught of Kuka robots. This was certainly the right move,considering the amount of pre-orders Tesla received for the Model 3 was staggering.

While the Model 3 is Teslas most affordable EV yet, the energy company isnt going cheap in terms of its design and capabilities, which will includeTeslas self-driving Autopilot software.

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Dubai Announces Accelerator to Solve the 21st Century’s Most Pressing Challenges – Futurism

Posted: at 7:43 am

A Hub of Ideas

Dubai is already leading the world in a number of innovative conceptsthey have plans for a Hyperloop system, a robot police force,a store that changes shape,self-driving electric vehicles,flying taxis,a space agency that will work towards getting people to Marsand this is just the beginning.

Now, its looking to continue that trend through a unique and innovative program that gathers the worlds industry leaders with key figures in government in order to solve some of humanitys greatest challenges.

The Dubai Future Accelerators is an intensive nine-week program that aims to connect the most innovative companieswith partners in the government in order to bring to life viable futuristic prototypes at a city-wide scale. Their goal is to actually testthe technologies that could be the solutions to some of thechallenges that plague modern society.Our mission is to imagine, design and create the future by facilitating partnerships between forward-thinking entrepreneurs and the government using the city of Dubai as a living testbed, the programs website notes.

For the program, they are focusing on seven key opportunities of the 21st century. This includes the application of cutting edge technologies like AI and robotics, genomics, 3D printing, distributed ledgers, biomimicry, and biotechnology, as well as new business models and ways of working, notesthe programs organizer, the Dubai Future Foundation (DFF).

Together, these focal points represent the most pressing sectors that could accelerate society into a new age of efficiency,productivity, and abundance. Each of the seven sectors act as umbrellas, housing a number of opportunities for innovation beneath them.

Applications for the third run of the program, which will go from October 1 to November 29, are already open. Interested companies have to be familiar with the challenges defined by the DFFs government partners and then choose one theyd like to focus on before filling out the application form.

The challenges come from a number of Dubais government offices, including the Roads and Transport Authority, the Dubai Police, the citys Health Authority, and the Department of Economic Development.

In the official release, Maha Khamis Al Mazeina, Project Manager at Dubai Future Foundation, noted that the program is really all about setting a course and tone for the future: The Dubai Future Accelerators program embodies the strategies set by the UAE as the country aims to lead the global charge to build the future, focusing on the strategic sectors that most affect peoples lives in the UAE and abroad.

To that extent, the program is doing a lot more than uniting governing officials with tech execs. They are inspiring the coming generations. For example, events held by the Dubai Future Accelerators will include members of the community, such as their Masterclass a series of interactive workshops that are meant to provide a comprehensive introduction to some of the technologies of the future and how to use them to benefit society.

Other events will be less like classes and more like discussion panels, where individuals can come together to ask the best and brightest about their ideas regarding how to build a better tomorrow. Such sessions will be hosted by international experts and participants in the Accelerators program, and they will explore the impact that these latest trends will have (and are having) on people today and tomorrow.

This is not a traditional accelerator. This isnt about how to write a business plan or how to pitch your startup. Its not about coding languages or search engine optimization. We arent going to tell you how to run your business or how to develop your website, the DFF says.This is about changing the world. Today.

So, if youthink that you might be able to help address one of the problems listed above, consider applying at the website by sending along a proposal,and if selected, you could be heading toDubai to help usher in a better tomorrow.

Disclosure: The Dubai Future Foundation works in collaboration with Futurism and is one of our sponsors. This post was not paid for or edited by DFF.

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Ray Kurzweil: There’s a Blueprint for the Master Algorithm in Our Brains – Futurism

Posted: at 7:43 am

In Brief Ray Kurzweil, Google's chief engineer, is a famous futurist who's always banked on the coming of the singularity when artificial intelligence overcomes human intelligence. For that to happen, however, we need to figure out the master algorithm.

Todays artificial intelligence (AI) systems are, no doubt, considerably advanced. There are now intelligent machine learning algorithms capable of driving vehicles, assisting doctors, or even engaging in art and in almost-human conversation. However, despite AI programmed as artificial deep neural networks, these are still far from actually mimicking what the human brain is capable of.

Renowned futurist and Google engineer Ray Kurzweil thinks that the key to human-level AIis a master algorithm, and he believes that the brain holdsa blueprint to this. The famous inventor and thinker, known for his mostly accurate predictions about future technologies, said that the brains neocortex that part of the brain thats responsible for intelligent behavior consists of roughly 300 million modules that recognize patterns. These modules are self-organized into hierarchies that turn simple patterns into complex concepts.

Despite neuroscience advancing by leaps and bounds over the years, we still havent quite figured out how the neocortex works. Kurzweil argued that these multiple modules all have the same algorithm, he said in the video by the Singularity Universityposted above. The mathematics of thinking, I think, is being understood, Kurzweil added, but I would not claim that we understand it fully. But were getting more and more hints as we learn more and more about the human brain.

Perhaps soon enough, well figure out that master algorithm and understand our brains better. Then well either be able to make better AI or AI thats better than us. Its worth finding out.

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Reused Dragon departs Space Station after month-long science bonanza – NASASpaceflight.com

Posted: July 3, 2017 at 7:51 am

July 3, 2017 by Chris Gebhardt

After 30 days in space and 28 days berthed to the International Space Station, SpaceXs first ever reused Dragon capsule hasunberthed from the Station ahead of a Monday afternoon reentry and splashdown in the Pacific Ocean for recovery. Over the course of its month-long stay, Dragon delivered several thousand pounds of scientific experiments and equipment to the Space Station some of which were so time sensitive that they had to be performed in the past 28 days so they could return with Dragon today.

Dragon departure and splashdown:

Originally scheduled to depart the ISS and splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Baja California on Sunday, 2 July, Dragons homecoming was delayed one day due to unfavorable weather conditions in the Eastern Pacific.

Dragon has performed flawlessly during her mission while the three person ISS crew has spent the last 28 days unloading the capsule, performing the timesensitive experiments that are due to return on it, and removing external payloads for the Station from Dragons trunk toeither attachthem on ISS or to perform test objectives on them.

The mission holds a historic place for SpaceX being the first re-flight of a Dragon capsule that had already flown to space once prior.

Previously, the Dragon capsule used for CRS-11 had flown the CRS-4 mission in September-October 2014.

The reuse of this Dragon capsule marksthe first time a private spaceflight company has reused a spacecraft and also marked the first time that a reused spacecraft arrived at the International Space Station since the conclusion of the Space Shuttle Program in 2011.

With Dragons first reflight now set to conclude, the three person reduced crew aboard the International Space Station began robotic preparations for the vehicles released by grappling Dragon with the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (Station arm or SSRMS) over the weekend ahead of final hatch closer on Sunday.

Firmly held in the snares of the Latching End Effector (LEE) on the end of the SSRMS, bolts securely fastening Dragon to the nadir (Earth-facing) Common Berthing Mechanism of Node-2 Harmony were driven to the retract position, freeing Dragon from its berthing port on the Station.

The Station crew then maneuvered Dragon on the end of the SSRMS away from the main structure of the ISS to its release point 10 meters from the orbital lab.

With a release time of 02:41 EDT on Monday, 3 July, astronauts Peggy Whitson and Jack Fischer working in the Cupola lab of the ISS commanded the release of the LEE snares holding Dragon.

The exact time of release was subject to change from the announced plan due to lighting conditions, communications coverage, and day-of timeline activities.

Once the LEE snares released, Whitson and Fischer backed the SSRMS away from Dragon as the craft held its position at the 10m mark.

Once the Stations arm was cleared to a safe distance, Dragon was conducted through a series of three small thruster firing departure burns that moved the capsule down the R-Bar (Radial Vector) and away from the International Space Station toward Earth (when viewed in relation to ISS orientation and Dragon movements with respect to Earth).

During the initial stage of departure, Dragon was under the control of its own computer programming, with Whitson and Fischer aboard the International Space Station and controllers at Mission Control Houston in Texas for NASA having primary control over the spacecraft.

As Dragon pushed down the R-Bar, the largest of the three thruster departure burns imparted enough Delta Velocity (Delta-V) change to Dragon to push it outside of the approach ellipsoid.

The approach ellipsoid is a 4 km by 2 km oval-shaped region around the International Space Station that extends 2 km in front of and 2 kilometers behind the ISS along the velocity vector (V-Bar) and 1 km above and 1 km below the Station along the R-Bar.

Once Dragon cleared the approach ellipsoid 1 km below the ISS, primary control of the vehicle shifted from NASA to SpaceX controllers in Hawthorne, California.

Dragon will perform roughly five hours of free flight activities as controllers at Mission Control SpaceX prepare the vehicle for the end of its mission.

Roughly five hours after departing the Space Station, the Guidance Navigation and Control (GNC) bay door on Dragon will be closed, creatinga perfect thermal protection seal around the entirety of Dragon for entry.

At the appropriate time, Dragons Draco thrusters will begin a 10-minute firing sequence known as the deorbit burn to slow thecapsule and place it on to the proper heading for entry into Earths atmosphere.

Following the deorbit burn, the umbilicals between Dragon and her external payload trunk will be severed ahead of the trunks separation from Dragon itself.

Dragon will then reorient, with its heat shield out in front in preparation for Entry Interface (EI) the moment Dragon reaches the first traces of Earths upper atmosphere.

Once EI occurs, Dragons Thermal Protection System (TPS) will protect it from the searing hot temperatures of reentry formed as the air molecules around Dragon are instantly heated and turned to plasma under the friction created by Dragons high velocity.

Dragons primary heat shield, called PICA-X, is based on a proprietary variant of NASAs Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material and is designed to protect Dragon during atmospheric re-entry.

PICA-X is robust enough to protect Dragon not only during ISS return missions but also during high velocity returns from Lunar and Martian destinations.

Unlike the Dragon capsule, the Dragon trunk will destructively burn up in Earths atmosphere.

Once safely through the plasma stage of reentry, Dragons drogue parachutes will deploy, followed by the main chutes designed to ease the vehicle to a splashdown in the Pacific Ocean for recovery.

Recovery will be attained by three main recovery vessels which will be positioned near Dragons return location.

Fast recovery vessels will be deployed to begin collecting Dragons parachutes as recovery of the capsule itself is conducted by the primary recovery assets.

Once safely aboard the recovery vessel, Dragon will be transported to the Port of Los Angeles and then shipped to Texas for cargo removal.

Currently, Dragon is the only resupply vessel capable of returning experiments and equipment from the International Space Station as the three other in-service resupply vehicles (Progress, Cygnus, and the H-II Transfer Vehicle) all perform destructive reentries into Earths atmosphere.

Under the second Commercial Resupply Services (CRS-2) contract award, Sierra Nevadas Dream Chaser spaceplane will join Dragon as only the second uncrewed vehicle capable of returning equipment and experiments from the Station.

With the conclusion of CRS-11, NASAs next commercial resupply mission to the International Space Station will be SpaceXs CRS-12 flight, which is currently targeting liftoff from SLC-39A at the Kennedy Space Center on 10 August 2017 at 14:07 EDT.

The science of CRS-11:

In addition to the 524 kg (1,155 lb) of crew supplies, vehicle hardware, spacewalk equipment, and computer resources aboard Dragon, the craft delivered a crucial 1,069 kg (2,356.7 lb) of internal science experiments to the Station.

Among these experiments were some that had to be performed/started quickly when Dragon arrived at the Station, as those experiments had to return aboard Dragon for landing Monday.

Specifically, two of the experiments are related to the biological sciences, one using fruit flies and one using mice.

Fruit Fly Lab:

Fruit Fly Lab-02 (FFL-02) follows three previous fruit fly experiments: Fungal Pathogenesis, Tumorigenesis, and Effects of Host Immunity in Space, which flew aboard Shuttle Discovery on the STS-121 second Return To Flight mission in 2006; NanoRacks-HEART FLIES, which was launched on SpaceX CRS-3 in 2014; and Fruit Fly Lab-01 (FFL-01), which launched to the Station on CRS-5 in 2015.

Specifically for FFL-02, the experiment studies the underlying mechanisms responsible for adverse effects of prolonged exposure to microgravity on the heart.

To this end, theexperiment usesfruit flies (scientifically known as Drosophila melanogaster), as their well-known genetic make-up and very rapid aging make them good models for studying heart function.

According to NASA, a fruit flys heart develops and functions in a fashion remarkably similar to that of the human heart, and is an excellent model to study the molecular-genetic basis of cardiac development as the underlying molecular pathways and cellular functions are fundamentally conserved even to humans.

Moreover, fruit fly hearts have been used to determine fundamental causes of cardiac dysfunction, such as arrhythmias (a group of conditions in which the heartbeat is irregular, too fast, or too slow) and cardiomyopathies (diseases of the heart muscles), which can lead to heart failure and death in humans.

For FFL-02, the development of a microgravity heart model in the fruit fly, which is more genetically tractable and faster aging than vertebrate hearts, could represent a potentially significant advancement in the study of how spaceflight affects the cardiovascular system and may facilitate the development of countermeasures to prevent the adverse effects of microgravity in astronauts.

To this end, FFL-02 is comprised of six Vented Fly Boxes, each containing triplicate samples of five different fruit fly strains.

Once Dragon was launched into space, the ground-born flies developed to adulthood and reproduced.

The space-born flies then went through their life cycle the formative parts of which all took placed in microgravity before coming back on Dragon, at which point the space-born fruit fly hearts are compared to control ground-born fruit fly hearts.

Furthermore, the effects of microgravity are compared between samples composed of control fly strains and those composed of mutant flies that are genetically predisposed to two types of heart dysfunction: arrhythmia and cardiac dilation.

Direct application of this experiment for astronauts and future spaceflights include the development of a microgravity heart model which could significantly advance the study of spaceflight effects on the cardiovascular system and facilitate the development of measures to prevent the adverse effects of space travel on astronauts.

Ground-based applications for those of us not lucky enough to fly into space of FFL-02 include additions to the growing body of research on fruit flies as models for human heart health and improving efforts to use fly studies to develop new cardio therapies.

Systemic Therapy of NELL-1 for Osteoporosis Rodent Research 5:

Rodent Research 5 (RR-5) continues the study of bone density loss (osteoporosis) in space while also testing new applications and drugs that can rebuild bone and prevent further bone loss on orbit.

In short, RR-5 is an experiment to study the potential for a new drug, NELL-1, to slow and/or reverse bone loss during spaceflight.

According toNASAs coverage of the experiment, exposure to the spaceflight environment results in significant and rapid effects on the skeletal system, similar to what occurs in certain bone wasting diseases, as well as aging, on earth.

Studying accelerated bone loss in space provides insight into disease mechanisms, confirms potential new drug targets, and enables the preclinical evaluation of a candidate therapeutic targeted to such disease.

To carry out RR-5, 40 mice all females between the ages of 30-40 weeks, with 32 week old female mice being preferred were launched in the CRS-11 Dragon.

When Dragon berthed to the ISS on 5 June, the mice were transferred to Rodent Habitats aboard the Station.

There, they were divided into two groups: control (vehicle only injection and bone marker) and experimental (NELL1 injection and bone marker).

The first round of injections occurred at Launch +1 (L+1) week, with the 20 control mice receiving vehicle injections and the 20 experimental mice receiving NELL1.

After this first round, dual-energy X-ray Analysis (DXA) scans were performed on all of the mice.

From this point, a subsequent injection series occurred at L+3 weeks ( 1 day).

This weekend, just prior to hatch closure and Dragon departure, 10 control mice and 10 experimental mice were randomly chosen for Live Animal Return (LAR) and were transported back into Dragon for a return trip to Earth.

The remaining 20 mice (10 control and 10 experimental) will now remain aboardthe ISS, receiving a third and fourth round of injections at L+5 weeks and L+7 weeks.

At L+9 weeks, a third DXA scan will be performed (the second having occurred at L+5 weeks).

At this point, the final blood samples will be obtained from all the remaining mice, and those blood samples will then be wrapped in aluminum foil and stored at -80C or colder until return on CRS-12.

The RR-5 investigations are expected to increase understanding of ground-based diseases, disorders, and injuries affecting millions of people globally and aid in the development of new therapeutics and strategies to treat such conditions.

Specifically, this research holds the potential to lead to new treatments for bone loss associated with immobilization, stroke, cerebral palsy, muscular dystrophy, spinal cord injury, and jaw resorption after tooth loss.

Other major science experiments on CRS-11:

In addition to FFL-02 and RR-5, numerous other experiments launched aboard CRS-11, including: Microbial Tracking-2, Seedling Growth-3, Advanced Plant Experiments -02-2, and Advanced Colloids Experiment Temperature -6.

Microbial Tracking-2:

Microbial Tracking-2 (MT-2) is part of a Microbial Tracking series that seeks to better characterize the microbial communities present on the Station using cutting edge molecular analysis techniques.

Specifically, MT-2 will study how microbial communities on the ISS and short-living viruses in a closed habitat have an adverse influence on crew health.

MT-2 will help fully characterize microbes and viruses present on three different crew members and in the environment during consecutive expeditions.

To accomplish this, crew members will take saliva, mouth, and body samples at various points in the consecutive expeditions so their respective microbiomes can be fully assessed and compared to ground baseline samples from before and after their flights.

Additionally, crew members will obtain air and surface microbial samples from inside U.S. modules.

In this manner, MT-2 will not only describe the microbial and viral communities of the Station and the crew, but will also seek to distinguish whether these biological signatures are of any concern to crew health and engineering systems.

According to NASA, All microbial and viral data generated by the investigation will be hosted by GeneLab and will be available to the scientific community and NASA to compare population dynamics to baseline standards and enable more accurate assessments of crew health associated with a given mission and future mission planning.

Seedling Growth-2 and Advanced Plant Experiments -02-2:

Seedling Growth-3 (SG-3) is the third of the Seedling Growth Experiment series and uses the plant Arabidopsis thaliana (more commonly known as the thale cress or mouse-ear cress).

SG-3 specifically investigates the effects of gravity on the cellular signaling mechanisms of light sensing in plants (phototropism) and investigates cell growth and proliferation responses to light stimulation under microgravity conditions.

The results could provide improvements in agricultural biotechnology and can contribute to increased production, lessened environmental impact, and sustainability of agricultural production.

The European Space Agency (ESA) leads this experiment, which will be performed in the European Modular Cultivation System (EMCS) in the Columbus Module.

Separately, the Advanced Plant Experiments -02-2 (APEX 02-2) will collect quantitative measurements of radiation damage to yeast DNA exposed to space radiation.

APEX 02-2 will represent the first time a highly powered genome-wide analysis of mechanisms of radiation damage in space can be conducted made possible bystate of the art technologies.

Specifically, APEX 02-2 uses a genome-wide series of deletion clones of Bakers Yeast to determine the quantity of radiation damage during spaceflight in comparison to ground controls.

While performed on the ISS, APEX-02-2 holds both space-based and ground-based applications providing potential simple approaches to enhancing space-based and clinical radiation damage.

Advanced Colloids Experiment Temperature -6:

Advanced Colloids Experiment Temperature -6 (ACE T-6) is an investigation which aims to study the microscopic behavior of colloids in gels and creams.

Colloids are suspensions of microscopic particles in a liquid commonly found in products ranging from milk to fabric softener.

Consumer products often use colloidal gels to distribute specialized ingredients throughout a liquid or semi-liquid medium.

However, these gels must serve two opposite purposes: disperse the active ingredient and maintain an even distribution so the product does not spoil.

To this end, coarsening (to make or become rough) is an issue with colloids that can limit the shelf life of many products that use them.

As such, ACE T-6 seeks to provide new insight into colloid coarsening in an effort to better understand the mechanism behind it with an aim toward improving shelf life in consumer products.

(Images: NASA, SpaceX, andL2 artist Nathan Koga The full gallery of Nathans (SpaceX Dragon to MCT, SLS, Commercial Crew and more) L2 images can be *found here*)

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Rocket failure may delay China’s space station and moon missions – New Scientist

Posted: at 7:51 am

Countdown to failure

Xinhua News Agency/REX/Shutterstock

By Timothy Revell

Chinas latest space launch has ended in failure. The Long March 5 rocketsuccessfully took off at 11.23am GMT on Sunday from the Wenchang Space Launch Centre in China, but after an hour came tumbling back down to Earth due to an abnormality.

Once in the air, mission control in Beijing tried to save the rocket by changing its flight plans, but those attempts were unsuccessful. The rocket, along with the experimental communications satellite it was carrying, crashed into the Pacific Ocean shortly afterwards.

The cause of the failure is still being investigated, but is likely to cause delays for future launch plans. This is the second Long March failure in two weeks, with a television satellite failing to hitch a ride into space on June 19. At the moment, its not clear if there is a connection between the two incidents.

China had planned to launch a rover into space by the end of this year, destined for the dark side of the moon, with the hope of bringing rock and soil samples back to Earth. But the mission relies on hitching a ride aboard a Long March 5 rocket, so may be delayed if the causes of the latest failures take a while to find and rectify.

Delays are possible. The rocket cannot fly until we find out the problem and solve it, and that will take time, said Wang Jianyu, the commander in chief of Chinas quantum satellite project who is also involved in the moon missions.

China also has plans to complete the construction of a space station, as well as landing humans and building a settlement on the moon. These missions will rely on Long March 5 rockets, so finding the points of failure is crucial to avoid lengthy delays.

Read more: China has had a telescope on the moon for the past two years

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