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Category Archives: Transhuman News
How did the pandemic start? The fine line between truth and conspiracy – ZME Science
Posted: March 31, 2021 at 5:23 am
We are looking at it said former US President Donald Trump in April 2020, referring to the possibility of SARS-CoV-2 the virus causing COVID-19 having been engineered in a Chinese laboratory, and adding: It seems to make sense.
Conspiracy theories are owing their existence to rational flaws. If it makes sense, it must be true, and if its true, somebody must be lying and hiding the truth. This is how every conspiracy theory is built. Take flat Earthers for example our planet seems flat to the eye, it must be flat. Everything else must therefore be a lie. Following the same logic, if there is a virology institute in Wuhan researching coronaviruses, it this must be the origin of the pandemic.
On May 3, 2020, US secretary of state Pompeo said there is enormous evidence [the virus] is manmade or genetically modified. The enormous evidence turned out to be the presence of a virology institute in Wuhan, and nothing else a gross miresepresentation.
Besides Pompeos improper use of this term, evidence is something that needs to be built upon several observations, utilizing different methodological approaches, replicated by independent researchers.
That said, theres a clear distinction between theory and conspiracy theory.
Take the theory of evolution as an example. Despite certain aspects of this theory still debated among scientists, we and other animals (including insects or reptiles) originate from common ancestors. Viruses and bacteria follow the same rules, too. Therefore, despite being called a theory for historical reasons, biological evolution is no longer a theory, it is essentially an established truth.
Now take the flat Earth theory. This is disproven by evidence of any kind. For example, there is an incredible amount of video footage from space, coming from various sources. This would all have to be fake, for the theory to hold true. Then there is day and night and we know the planet rotates around its axis. There are seasons, because the planet rotates around the Sun. If you organize a meeting with a friend overseas, you will need to take into account their time zone it may be dark there! Theres obviously much more than just this. We can therefore conclude the flat Earth theory is not only a theory, but rather a conspiracy theory. In fact, despite the evidence and the information available for everybody, conspiracy theorists still support the idea.
So we have proven theories, conspiracy theories, and finally, we have theories. Just theories. They can be far-fetched, ridiculous, and verging on the impossible, but as long as there is no evidence of the opposite, there is still a chance they can be true.
Theories built on anecdotal evidence, not supported by previous evidence, shared by people with a lack of expertise, and deemed inappropriate by experts are generally false. Despite this, there is still a chance, albeit remote, the theory is actually correct. To debunk a theory and put it in the folder with other conspiracy theories, there needs to be evidence supporting another line of thought, with this second theory being in logical contradiction with our theory of interest. Alternatively, there ought to be substantial evidence of the groundlessness of the theory. Practically, the theory needs to be disproven.
So what does this mean for the pandemic? Scientists and health professionals including myself have immediately flagged the theory that SARS-CoV-2 was engineered in a laboratory, or that an undesired spillover from a laboratory took place, as a conspiracy theory.
After all, these ideas have all the ingredients to suggest their skewed and potentially conspirative nature: they support the idea that unknown elites with obscure powers are controlling the future of mankind (say, the Chinese government), or that multiple organizations are involved in covering up the origin of the pandemic (take the World Health Organization as an example).
In the first months of the pandemic, despite Chinas claim that the virus originated at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, there was no evidence of how the virus originated and transmitted to humans, and from which source. For scientists, the idea of a zoonotic transmission at the market sounded plausible, especially in light of the similar dynamics of previous coronavirus outbreaks causing SARS and MERS. Scientists and the World Health Organization flagged other views on this topic as misinformation, despite them constituting an actual, albeit remote, possibility.
To explain why this has happened we need to understand how the role of scientists within global society has changed over time. Scientists, besides their research, also have to fight rampant misinformation, fake news and public mistrust. Were not just fighting an epidemic, WHOs General-Director Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at the United Nations Department of Global Communication. We are fighting an infodemic.
Constantly faced with conspiracy theories and myths that damage their precious work, scientists have grown increasingly skeptical about every unverified piece of information circulating online. Fighting the infodemic is challenging, and as this is a new threat for everybody, even scientists go to battle with biases and strategic flaws.
While the WHO is currently conducting a difficult investigation on the origin of the pandemic, here we try to understand all possible scenarios, from the most probable to the most arcane debunking all myths, whether they come from the world of conspirators or from the academic world. So lets dive in.
1. The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market
The most supported hypothesis based on phylogenetic reconstructions which are computational operations that predict common genetic ancestry based on genomic sequences is that SARS-CoV-2 originated from other coronaviruses circulating among bats and pangolins. The hypothesis is therefore of an animal origin (also referred to as proximal origin) of the virus.
The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market has long been thought to be the place where the first zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 took place, especially considering the market was an easy point of contact between wild animals and humans. The market came under the spotlight predominantly because the activity of 28 out of 41 patients hospitalized in the early days of the pandemic was linked to the market in the days before hospitalization. However, 19 of the initial pool of patients did not have established contacts with the market, as well as the first confirmed COVID-19 patient, who didnt seem to have had contact with either the market nor the other 40 patients.
Animal and environmental samples were taken from the market, and a fraction of them resulted to be contaminated with SARS-CoV-2, but no evidence of the initial animal source could be found. So based on this information, it is more likely that the market was an initial super-spreading event of the virus, but almost certainly not the place where the first zoonotic transmission took place. It remains possible, but unlikely, for this to be the origin.
Another incongruence that underscores the probability of this theory to be correct concerns time. It has been thought for months that the first zoonotic transmission to humans occurred in late November 2019. The first COVID-19 patient was reported to have the first symptoms on December 1st, 2019. As most readers certainly remember, it took some time before COVID-19 outbreaks appeared in various countries, such as Italy, Iran and Spain. However, over the course of the last few months, a posteriori analyses of various biological and environmental samples demonstrated COVID-19 was circulating in various countries already in late 2019.
When the first study showing that COVID-19 was circulating earlier than expected was published, it was suggested that detection of SARS-CoV-2 in old samples was potentially due to contamination with more recent sources of the virus. However, in addition to the reported case of the patient that was retrospectively tested positive for COVID-19 in France in late December 2019, there have been numerous other studies in recent months drawing similar conclusions.
The increasing number of studies from independent groups and different institutions is now constituting convincing evidence that the virus was circulating earlier than expected. For example, in a recent study from Brazil, researchers analyzed two independent samples from human sewage and detected the presence of SARS-CoV-2 already on the 27th of November 2019, long before the first official COVID-19 case in the Americas (only on January 21st, 2020 in the United States). A fresh Italian study demonstrated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in an oropharyngeal swab specimen from early December 2019 taken from a child with suspected measles. Another study from January 2021 showed the presence of the virus in sewage across several Italian cities on December 18th, 2019.
So the virus was already circulating before the wet market transmission happened.
Considering these overwhelming results, the first zoonotic transmission likely took place earlier than initially thought, possibly between late October and the beginning of November 2019. The place of origin, despite also being not certain, is still very likely to be Wuhan, China, due to rampant infection cases reported from December 2019 to January 2020.
2. The proximal origin
Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus.
This is the conclusive sentence of the abstract of a letter published in Nature Medicine in March 2020 and entitled The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. This letter from various experts aimed to debunk various myths about the origin of SARS-CoV-2, and in particular claims that the virus was the result of experiments conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in the lab of Shi Zhengli, a leading researcher who works on mechanisms of emerging viruses of wildlife origin, and in particular with coronaviruses and bats. The Nature Medicine paper in question provided convincing evidence for the proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. At the time of writing, it has been cited more than a thousand times in just a few months, and the paper has been read more than 5 million times.
The first of the two main arguments for the proximal origin in this paper concerns the structure of the viral receptor-binding domain of the spike protein. This is of fundamental importance for the infection, as its structure determines the binding of the virus to the ACE2 human and animal receptors on cells, which allow viral entry. In simple words, if the virus is unable to properly attach to our cells, it wont be able to infect them.
According to structural analyses, the receptor-binding domain structure of SARS-CoV-2 has affinity with the ACE2 receptor in humans, but the binding is not ideal. In fact, new variants of the virus that seem to have better affinity to the ACE2 receptors have emerged in the past months and have been associated with higher infectivity of the virus. The main argument is that, if the virus was man-made, it would likely have had a receptor-binding domain that was ideal for binding human ACE2 receptors in the first place. Authors conclude that this is evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is not the product of purposeful manipulation.
Despite being reasonable, the conclusion is inadequate. The authors only prove the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is not ideal for binding to human ACE2 receptors. This doesnt tell us anything about whether the virus was actually manipulated, or for which purpose.
Lets consider a scenario in which the virus was in fact manipulated to study what structural changes would allow coronaviruses to infect humans. The result of this investigative manipulation would likely not result in the generation of an ideal virus for human infection, rather in one with potential for human infection. This also doesnt exclude that the researchers have willingly chosen that particular structure, despite not being the ideal one for binding ACE2 receptor after all this resulted in a pandemic, so in such a case it would have been considered as good enough.
The second argument from the aforementioned paper concerns genetic engineering. For a virus to be manipulated in a laboratory, traces of genetic engineering would need to be left, and would be consequently detected. The authors cited a review paper from 2014 describing the main techniques used in the field to achieve this. Based on these techniques, the authors excluded that any of these backbones was used and concluded that SARS-CoV-2 was not engineered in a laboratory.
This however doesnt take into consideration more recent literature new techniques to engineer coronaviruses have emerged after 2014 or even the possibility that unpublished techniques could have been used to engineer SARS-CoV-2. The authors conclude the genetic data irrefutably show that SARS-CoV-2 is not derived from any previously used virus backbone but to support this very claim they cite a review article published by Shi Zhengli and coauthors in Nature Reviews Microbiology which offers an in-depth analysis on the origin and evolution of pathogenic coronaviruses, without any reference to genetic engineering approaches for coronaviruses. Overall, this argument, despite reasonably suggesting a proximal origin of the virus, remains weak and does not exclude many alternatives.
3. Evolutionary placement of SARS-CoV-2
More convincing evidence on the natural origin of SARS-CoV-2 was provided by a study published in Nature Microbiology in July 2020, entitled Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors showed that this type of coronavirus has a broad genetic diversity in bats due to frequent recombination events. Basically, RNA viruses, and in particular the family of coronaviruses (sarbecoviruses) which include SARS-CoV-2, may infect the same cellular host and recombine which consists of the exchange of genetic information between two different viruses, thus producing a new virus with mixed genetic features.
Based on a phylogenetic reconstruction, SARS-CoV-2 and the virus causing SARS diverged between 1932 and 1988, whereas SARS-CoV-2 diverged from RaTG1 the most closely known related virus in bats between 1930 and 2000. In another study, authors at the Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Science, identified RmYN02, the closest virus to SARS-CoV-2 known to date, showing the extent of recombination events in its genetic history and large differences with SARS-CoV-2, again suggesting a proximal origin for SARS-CoV-2 and also pointing out to the fact that a large number of viruses circulating in wild animals have not yet been characterized.
As mentioned above, the natural origin of SARS-CoV-2 is certainly the most likely scenario, but these studies cannot exclude with certainty whether the virus was genetically created in a laboratory.
For example, the extent of recombination in coronaviruses and the lack of information about closer relatives to SARS-CoV-2, leave us with a large uncertainty about the hypothesis for a natural evolution of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, phylogenetic analyses are known for their intrinsic imprecision (they are models after all) and even more when many assumptions need to be made, such as in the case of viruses that are so prone to recombination. Second, a proximal origin of the virus does not exclude that humans involuntarily or unwittingly releasing the virus initiated the pandemic, as we will discuss in the next section.
4. The man-made virus
Lets now assume the virus was voluntarily released by humans, and see whether this is a possible scenario, or whether theres enough evidence to flag this as a myth. A conspiracy theorist would find this one the most probable and intriguing scenario. As scientists, we would rather classify it as the least likely one. Nonetheless, lets have a look at it.
Lets say the virus was engineered in a Chinese laboratory to purposefully cause a pandemic. If a state like China was planning on creating a biological weapon to set a stage for their rise as the hegemon of the world, it would likely do so in secrecy and using a weapon with no signature on it. In order to achieve this, years of research would have likely been conducted with the help of experts.
The Wuhan Institute of Virology, and in particular the lab of Shi Zhengli, would have been the appropriate institutions to start creating a coronavirus-based bioweapon. Top notch, unpublished engineering techniques would have likely been used to avoid being unveiled after the first genomic analysis by a laboratory outside of China (see the aforementioned Nature Medicine paper). Further, the spread of the virus from inside China, the presence of the market in Wuhan to provide an excuse and the unpreparedness of the West to face this kind of threat would have constituted the perfect plan.
More than one year into the COVID-19 pandemic, China has nearly eradicated SARS-CoV-2 and its economy has started to grow as before the pandemic, whereas Americans and Europeans are nowhere close to an end of the tunnel, with their economies expected to suffer for years to come. Corruption of a few key figures occupying relevant positions in global health institutions, such as the WHO, would have been the perfect recipe for disaster of the West, and for the growth and prosperity of China. For example, Bruce Aylwards infamous interview offers highlights of the political role the WHO has been playing since the early outbreak of COVID-19, also in consideration of the essential role China plays in funding the organization. Owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese economy will surpass American economy by 2028, instead of the expected 2032 before the pandemic. By then, China will become the largest economic powerhouse worldwide.
Despite this conspiracy theory-like scenario being extremely unlikely and the fact that there is no real evidence to point in this direction, it nonetheless remains a possibility that cannot be fully ruled out just yet and countries worldwide should ensure this is not the case. The WHO, supported by all its member countries, should be allowed to investigate in various directions, without excluding this one.
Given the extent of this unprecedented crisis, we should leave room for any option. Old weapons and old wars are for the past humanity has always been able to produce new monsters, and surprise the world. All conclusions, however, should be based on real evidence, not proximity and speculation.
5. The research origin
A second possibility is that research on coronaviruses caused the pandemic in the first place, by accident. As we know, human activities cause environmental changes including wildlife erosion, and place us and wild animals in closer proximity, thus increasing the likelihood of zoonotic transmissions occurring.
Especially since the outbreak of SARS in 2002, much research, especially in China, has focused on coronaviruses and on the identification of reservoirs of this type of virus in bats. For this type of research, scientists need to collect samples of animals in the wild and analyze them in the laboratory. With this approach researchers aim to identify different coronaviruses already present in nature, gathering information about their evolution and infectivity, thus anticipating strategies of prevention for potential outbreaks or suggesting recommendations for health organizations and governments. In fact, as previously discussed, humanity remains extremely ignorant about the diversity of coronaviruses circulating in wild animals. Research in this field is in fact important to be prepared for new viruses to infect humans and thus prevent pandemics.
Authors of the aforementioned paper identifying the closest relative of SARS-CoV-2 describe in the methods section that between May and October 2019 [they] collected a total of 302 samples from 227 bats from Mengla County, Yunnan Province in China. [] These samples included patagium (a skin membrane between the limbs of bats), lung, liver, and feces. All but three bats were sampled alive and subsequently released. A similar description of the fieldwork can be found in two papers from Shi Zhengli and colleagues (here and here), in which it is additionally stated that all sampling procedures were performed by veterinarians, with approval of the Ethics Committee of the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Safety procedures to collect samples may simply have been inappropriate or may have been neglected and precise methodological description of the safety measures utilized to conduct the research is not necessary nor requested by editors and reviewers for publication. Those who have laboratory work experience among the readers know mistakes can be made, and negligence by less experienced researchers is common (see the example of the SARS outbreak in Singapore in late May 2003 caused by a non-trained student working with viruses in a biosafety level 3 laboratory). Supposedly this isnt different for fieldwork with bats. As a matter of fact, YouTube is filled with plenty of videos of researchers handling live bats with bare hands and no protection at all. In fact, it has been generally believed a rabies vaccine is all you need to work with these animals.
Therefore, we cannot exclude that the first zoonotic transmission occurred because of investigative research conducted on coronaviruses. However, it is needless to say that from a probabilistic perspective, it is more likely that the vicinity of animals and humans could have been due to the use of bats as food sources.
6. Proximal for proximal origin
We previously mentioned those papers suggesting the proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2 based on phylogenetic analyses (here and here). Besides the issues we discussed before, a major problem with their approach is that, in order to demonstrate proximal origin, authors must have assumed proximal origin.
Here we try to untangle this seemingly circular argument. The phylogenetic distance between two viruses is a measure of how different two species are, based on their genetics. Based on the similarity and differences between multiple viruses, researchers can infer and predict how far in time two viruses diverged, until a point in time when there was a common ancestral virus. As mentioned above, they calculated a temporal distance between SARS-CoV-2 and its closest known virus and determined this is too long for any genetic manipulation to have occurred. This is however true only if they assumed natural evolution occurred without human intervention.
Humans can push natural evolution to their advantage, and they have been doing so for a very long time. For example, the evolution of maize has been pushed by selecting corn with specific characteristics, including resistance to pests, ability to grow on different soils, etc. This has allowed this crop to become a staple of the modern human diet. In this process, humans havent genetically manipulated maize directly, but they nonetheless acted as selective forces that naturally led to the creation of a crop with desired characteristics. An animal example is the evolution of dogs from wolves, the first and very successful example of domestication.
Therefore, despite our ancestors knowing nothing about genetics, they were aware of the concept of selective breeding. This concept can potentially be used for pushing viral evolution, too. Basically, we can speed up the natural process of evolution if we wish to. For instance, among many other research groups using this concept in their research, of note a group of scientists managed to reproduce natural evolution of a RNA virus in cell culture.
In principle, using available SARS-like viral strains, researchers could have selected viruses for their ability to infect human cells. This does not exclude the proximal origin of the virus, as in this case humans could have simply assisted the process, and the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive. This very possibility demonstrates the inherent logical inaccuracy of phylogenetic analyses to demonstrate proximal origins.
As natural evolution in the lab can be pushed to occur at much faster rates than in nature, a temporal analysis of the divergence between two viruses in this specific context is nonsense. Furthermore, selection during passage in cell culture could also explain the imperfect binding of SARS-CoV-2 to human ACE2 and the lack of evidence for backbones used to genetically engineer the virus.
Authors of the famous Nature Medicine paper discussed this issue in their manuscript, and concluded they do not believe that any type of laboratory-based scenario is plausible. Their belief this choice of words is questionable at best stems from the observation that recombination events involving viruses in pangolins provides a valid explanation for retaining sequences with affinity to the human ACE2 receptor. This however does not exclude that samples of viruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2 have been obtained from the environment after natural events of recombination occurred, or that this natural process has been simulated in a laboratory environment.
On this point, the authors say that a hypothetical generation of SARS-CoV-2 by cell culture or animal passage would have required prior isolation of a progenitor virus with very high genetic similarity, which has not been described. In this line, authors are substantially suggesting that if something hasnt been published, it cannot have happened and cannot be true.
Furthermore, the authors claimed that the presence of a polybasic cleavage site is evidence that passage in cell culture didnt occur. Also on this point, they use the same logic, claiming Subsequent generation of a polybasic cleavage site would have then required repeated passage in cell culture or animals with ACE2 receptors similar to those of humans, but such work has also not previously been described.
Here we comprehensively listed all possible scenarios concerning the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and of the ongoing pandemic. As we have seen, a proximal origin is very likely, albeit this doesnt exclude the possibility that humans may have played a part in this process, willingly or not. As one paper puts it:
Although the evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 is not a purposefully manipulated virus, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here.
More than one year into this pandemic, we still know very little about the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Following Socrates famous quote I know that I know nothing, scientists should remember to be fully committed to scientific reasoning and logic, even during a time in which scientific misinformation is rampant and the consequences of it are tangible.
Scientists should focus on identifying the early events of the pandemic, solving it and preventing future foreseeable disasters. They should also focus on debunking scientific misinformation and conspiracy theories, of course. And they should find viable strategies to halt the ongoing infodemic.
That said, canceling more or less unlikely theories prior to having proved them wrong is not what a scientist should do. Scientific hypotheses have always generated debate among scientists, and nowadays the general public is inevitably part of this process. Despite most theories coming from people lacking expertise ending up in the trash, scientists should not silence them, but rather find a way to moderate them. They should explain why these theories are not so likely to be true, their flaws, and lack of evidence. For theories supportive of a laboratory spillover, for example, scientists should underline these theories lack substantial evidence, albeit they may still end up being correct. These theories should be challenged with a rigorous method, rather than being silenced.
In conclusion: We should highlight and challenge theories having precursor traits of conspiracy theories, and challenge language that is not scientific and precise. But again, we should not discredit them prior to having conducted proper and comprehensive analyses.
Scientism should not prevail over science. The ongoing infodemic is challenging the scientific movement in multiple ways, and this is one of those we should not neglect.
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How did the pandemic start? The fine line between truth and conspiracy - ZME Science
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The upcoming UN Food Summit has been hijacked by wealthy corporations and their food agenda – The Grocer
Posted: at 5:23 am
As dinner parties go, the forthcoming UN Food Summit in September is already a disaster. Would-be guests have declined the invitation because they cant stomach whats on the menu.
Citizen food and farming groups see the summit as a taster of an unpalatable new food order, wherein breathtakingly wealthy corporations and individuals push their self-serving strategies down our throats: a feast of artificial intelligence-controlled farming systems, genetic engineering, fake food, and assorted technocratic, industrial agriculture solutions.
The cannot attend replies started coming in earlier this year when 550 civil society organisations, universities and social movements from across the world said they would boycott the summit and set up a parallel meeting.
Three UN special rapporteurs on the right to foodMichael Fakhri, Hilal Elver and Olivier de Schutteralso issued a statement. They said the ideas from farmers and food producers that should have been the talking points for a true peoples summit food sovereignty, agroecology, and relocalising farming systems had effectively been shut out. They believe the table is already set, the seating plan non-negotiable, the menu highly limited, and the real conversation is actually happening at a different table.
The less favourable table they have in mind is that of Klaus Schwab, boss of the World Economic Forum (WEF), solicitous host to Bill Gates and the Davos elite of powerful corporations. WEF signed a strategic partnership agreement with the UN secretary general last year, and its goal, according to the International Planning Committee for Food Sovereignty, is harnessing the opportunities of the technological revolution for the benefit of transnational corporations and global financial capital.
Its a poison summit, says respected environmentalist Vandana Shiva. The poison cartel, and Bill Gates, the billionaires are running it to push more poisons now under new names.
Strong sentiment, but Shiva is only voicing an increasingly widespread view that WEF aims to use the event to manufacture democratic consent for the Davos food agenda (although WEF says it hasnt played a central role in the summits planning). If WEFs intention was indeed to have its approach apparently endorsed by civil society groups, it hasnt worked. On the contrary, this summit looks more like the dinner party from hell.
The rest is here:
The upcoming UN Food Summit has been hijacked by wealthy corporations and their food agenda - The Grocer
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Bill Gates quoted out of context about injecting kids with genetically modified organisms in discussion on GM crops – Health Feedback
Posted: at 5:23 am
CLAIM
Bill Gates stated that "Were taking things that are genetically modified organisms, and were injecting them into little kids arms; we just shoot them right into the vein"
DETAILS
Lack of context: Bill Gates was speaking about the importance of safety testing in the acceptance of new technologies. He was making a comparison between the safety system for medicines and genetically modified crops.
KEY TAKE AWAY
Genetically modified crops are controversial among the public and farmers. Bill Gates used the example of medical testing as an analogy to make the case for the importance of a safety monitoring system for GM crops. Genetically modified organisms are used in producing certain vaccines, which have been tested in clinical trials to show their safety and efficacy.
REVIEW A video posted on YouTube showed a clip of Bill Gates speaking about injecting children with genetically modified organisms. The video has been viewed more than 15,000 times and shared more than 3,000 times on Facebook, according to the social media analytics tool CrowdTangle.
The clip of Bill Gates was taken from a 2015 event in Brussels as part of a discussion about genetically modified (GM) crops. GM crops are agricultural plants that have been modified using genetic engineering to introduce new traits, such as improved nutritional value or resistance to pests and herbicides. While the scientific consensus is that GM foods are safe to eat, they remain controversial among the public and farmers.
At the event, Gates used the safety testing process for medicines as an analogy to support safety testing for GM crops. Specifically, new medicines go through testing and clinical trials to determine if they are safe and effective. There are numerous stages in the safety testing process, in which results are compared between increasingly larger test groups and untreated people to assess the benefits and risks of a medicine.
The segment below contains Gates quote, shown in context:
The strongest analogy is to medicines. Is there something to worry about with medicines that some of them might have side effects? Do we need safety testing? Were taking things that are genetically modified organisms, and were injecting them into little kids arms; we just shoot them right into the vein. So, yeah, I think maybe we should have a safety system where we do trials and test things out.
Gates used this analogy to compare the potential safety risk of new medical technology to the risk of eating GM crops. Society in general comes to accept new medicines because regulatory agencies ensure that they are safe, based on data from extensive safety testing. In other words, Gates used the example of safety testing of new medicines to argue that safety testing for GM crops is likewise required to boost their acceptance.
Gates statements were part of a wider discussion about the rights of African farmers to choose whether or not to use GM crops. Gates argued that GM crop techniques should not be dismissed entirely, given their potential to solve a range of problems:
The idea though that you would take a technique that promises to solve nutrition problems, solve productivity problems, solve crop disease problems for African farmers, where its absolutely a life-and-death issue for them, and you would say, oh nothing that uses that technique should possibly be used.
Essentially, Gates promoted the idea that having a safety monitoring system in place would help inform decisions by stakeholders on their use, as they do in medicine. However, the manner in which the video was edited made it appear as though Gates was promoting the idea of injecting children with genetically modified organisms, which, as demonstrated above, isnt the case.
Genetically modified organisms are a key part of biologics production, such as vaccine manufacturing. For instance, genetically modified cells are used to produce proteins found in the hepatitis B virus and human papillomaviruses, which are the active ingredients in the respective vaccines that trigger the development of immunity against these viruses. However, it is important to note that these vaccines themselves dont contain genetically modified organisms. These vaccines have been used for many years and data from safety monitoring shows that they are safe and effective(see here and here).
Some COVID-19 vaccines, like the ones produced by AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, also make use of the same technology. These vaccines use a viral vector, where an existing virus called an adenovirus that causes the common cold was genetically modified to carry the genetic sequence coding for the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. These vaccines were also shown to be safe and effective.
In summary, the video posted on YouTube left out a lot of the context around the comments from Bill Gates. Gates was speaking at an event about genetically modified crops and was arguing for the importance of safety testing.
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CollPlant Appoints Additive Manufacturing Executive, Hugh Evans to Its Board of Directors – BioSpace
Posted: at 5:23 am
REHOVOT, Israel, March 29, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- CollPlant (NASDAQ: CLGN),a regenerative and aesthetics medicine company, today announced the appointment of Hugh Evans to its Board of Directors, increasing the board to six independent members.
U.S.-based Mr. Evans brings extensive board, 3D printing technology, and investment experience to CollPlant. He currently serves on the boards of four manufacturing technology companies including Factory Four, ZVerse, 3DM, and is also a Non-Executive Chairman of Culinary Printworks. He was formerly a board member of AquaVenture Holdings, which was acquired by Culligan International.
Mr. Evans served as Senior Vice President of Corporate Development & Digitization at 3D Systems Corporation, a leading 3D printing company, where he led M&A, venture capital investments, joint ventures, and technology licensing. Previously, he served as a portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price Associates in Baltimore, Maryland for over 20 years.
"Hugh brings significant insights and experience that will be invaluable to CollPlant as we continue to execute our strategic vision. His achievements as a senior executive and board member, complemented by his notable expertise in the 3D printing industry will undoubtedly serve us well as we continue to grow, " said Yehiel Tal, CollPlant Chief Executive Officer. "Hugh is an excellent addition to our board of directors and will play an integral role in our mission to help people live longer and better through our innovative collagen technology."
"I'm thrilled to join CollPlant's board at a pivotal time in the Company's mission to revolutionize the fieldsof regenerative and aesthetic medicine via its rhCollagen technology platform," said Mr. Evans. "I look forward to contributing from my experience in additive manufacturing to support CollPlant in pioneering novel solutions for patients around the world."
CollPlant's Chairman, Dr. Roger J. Pomerantz commented, "Hugh has a deep understanding and appreciation of CollPlant's technology and how it can be transformative in advancing the 3D bioprinting field. We are very pleased to welcome him to the board and look forward to his guidance and support."
About CollPlant
CollPlant is a regenerative and aesthetic medicine company focused on 3D bioprinting of tissues and organs, and medical aesthetics. The Company's products are based on its rhCollagen (recombinant human collagen) produced with CollPlant's proprietary plant based genetic engineering technology. These products address indications for the diverse fields of tissue repair, aesthetics, and organ manufacturing, and are ushering in a new era in regenerative and aesthetic medicine. CollPlant recently entered a development and global commercialization agreement for dermal and soft tissue fillers with Allergan, an AbbVie company, the global leader in the dermal filler market.
For more information, visithttp://www.collplant.com.
Safe Harbor Statements
This press release may include forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to, statements relating to CollPlant's objectives plans and strategies, as well as statements, other than historical facts, that address activities, events or developments that CollPlant intends, expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future. These statements are often characterized by terminology such as "believes," "hopes," "may," "anticipates," "should," "intends," "plans," "will," "expects," "estimates," "projects," "positioned," "strategy" and similar expressions and are based on assumptions and assessments made in light of management's experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Many factors could cause CollPlant's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the following: the Company's history of significant losses, its ability to continue as a going concern, and its need to raise additional capital and its inability to obtain additional capital on acceptable terms, or at all; the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic; the Company's expectations regarding the timing and cost of commencing clinical trials with respect to tissues and organs which are based on its rhCollagen based BioInk and products for medical aesthetics; the Company's ability to obtain favorable pre-clinical and clinical trial results; regulatory action with respect to rhCollagen based BioInk and medical aesthetics products including but not limited to acceptance of an application for marketing authorization review and approval of such application, and, if approved, the scope of the approved indication and labeling; commercial success and market acceptance of the Company's rhCollagen based products in 3D Bioprinting and medical aesthetics; the Company's ability to establish sales and marketing capabilities or enter into agreements with third parties and its reliance on third party distributors and resellers; the Company's ability to establish and maintain strategic partnerships and other corporate collaborations; the Company's reliance on third parties to conduct some or all aspects of its product manufacturing; the scope of protection the Company is able to establish and maintain for intellectual property rights and the Company's ability to operate its business without infringing the intellectual property rights of others; the overall global economic environment; the impact of competition and new technologies; general market, political, and economic conditions in the countries in which the Company operates; projected capital expenditures and liquidity; changes in the Company's strategy; and litigation and regulatory proceedings. More detailed information about the risks and uncertainties affecting CollPlant is contained under the heading "Risk Factors" included in CollPlant's most recent annual report on Form 20-F filed with the SEC, and in other filings that CollPlant has made and may make with the SEC in the future. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are made as of the date of this press release and reflect CollPlant's current views with respect to future events, and CollPlant does not undertake and specifically disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Contact at CollPlant:Eran RotemDeputy CEO & Chief Financial OfficerTel: + 972-73-2325600/631Email:Eran@collplant.com
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Firefighter Testifies: ‘I Was Desperate To Help … And This Human Was Denied That’ – WAMC
Posted: at 5:22 am
Genevieve Hansen expected Monday, May 25 to be a peaceful day.
That's what she told jurors on Tuesday in the murder trial of former officer Derek Chauvin who is accused of killing George Floyd last year.
Instead, during an off-duty walk home from a community garden she heard a woman yelling that the police were killing the black man, prone and in handcuffs, face down in the street.
Hansen, who is a trained emergency medical technician and Minneapolis firefighter, testified that upon taking in the scene, she moved closer to the officers who were pinning Floyd on the asphalt and identified herself as a first responder.
In video footage played for the court, Hansen could be heard demanding that the officers check his pulse.
"I had already assessed that [Floyd] was in an altered state of consciousness. What I needed to know was if he had a pulse."
She described how Floyd was lying motionless: "He wasn't moving, and he was cuffed. And three grown men putting all of their weight on somebody is too much," she said. "The first thing that concerned me was his face was smushed into the ground. Swollen. It appeared swollen to me."
But rather than allow her to help, Hansen said, then-officer Tou Thao "said something along the lines of, 'If you really are a Minneapolis firefighter, you would know better than to get involved.' "
Her voice began to tremble when she recalled the impotence that overwhelmed her as Thao and the other officers blocked her from providing the kind of medical care she has been trained to give. "I got there and I could have given medical assistance. That's exactly what I should have done."
She broke down moments later when describing how she felt "totally distressed."
When asked about her shifting tone on the video taken on the day of the killing, she explained that she initially addressed the officers in a calm and reasonable manner. But that as the minutes slipped away, and she realized that Floyd may have released his bladder as a result of becoming unconscious or possibly dead, she began raising her voice and using foul language.
"Because I was desperate to help. ... Because there was a man being killed and ... had I had access to a call similar to that, I would have been able to provide medical attention to the best of my abilities. And this human was denied that," she said.
Prosecutors also played audio of a 911 call Hansen made moments after Floyd was loaded into an ambulance.
"Hello. I'm on the block of 38th and Chicago, and I literally watched police officers not take a pulse and not do anything to save a man, and I am a first responder myself, and I literally have it on video. I just happened to be on a walk," Hansen said in the call.
She told the court that she regretted waiting so long to call adding that she should have acted more quickly.
"I should have called 911 immediately but I didn't and when things calmed down I realized that I wanted them to know what was going on. I wanted to basically report it," she said.
During cross examination, defense attorney Eric Nelson, questioned Hansen's training and discrepancies between statements she'd previously given law enforcement and the testimony she had just provided. He also reminded her that she cannot definitely testify that two of the officers who were helping to restrain Floyd did not take his pulse because she could not see them from her vantage point where she was told to stand on the sidewalk by Thao.
Nelson noted that Hansen's training as an EMT was not equal to that of a paramedic. He also asked a series of questions that forced her to acknowledge that she was unaware of the timeline of when the officers had called for medical assistance and noted they were already on their way by the time she arrived on the scene.
He also tried to get her to admit that if she were to try to put out a fire with "an angry crowd" around her, she may become distracted. But Hansen refused to agree.
"Have you ever had a citizen start to yell at you while fighting a fire? ... What if there were 12 people yelling at you telling you you were doing it wrong? You wouldn't be distracted by that?" Nelson asked.
"Like I said, I know my job and I am confident in my job and what I do and what needs to be done and my training. So I would continue to do that," Hansen responded.
In one of the more tense exchanges, Nelson asked Hansen if she was angry and upset at the scene.
"I don't know if you've seen anybody been killed, but it's upsetting," she replied.
That prompted Judge Peter Cahill to instruct her to answer the specific question.
But Hansen grew increasingly agitated by Nelson's questions and the second day of the trial ended with Cahill reprimanding Hansen for being argumentative.
"I'm advising you do not argue with the counsel and the court," Cahill said, from the the bench. "You will not argue with the court."
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United Kingdom: Human Rights Act Review: Signalling a rollback of regulation and judicial oversight post Brexit? – GlobalComplianceNews
Posted: at 5:22 am
The Independent Human Rights Act Review (IHRAR) panel (Review) is led by Sir Peter Gross. Its establishment follows the2019 Conservative Party manifestocommitment that:
We will update the Human Rights Act and administrative law to ensure that there is a proper balance between the rights of individuals, our vital national security and effective government. We will ensure that judicial review is available to protect the rights of the individuals against an overbearing state, while ensuring that it is not abused to conduct politics by another means or to create needless delays.
The Review seeks to examine whether the HRA is working in practice and continues to meet the needs of the society it serves, looking specifically at two key themes:
Baker McKenzie participated in the recent call for evidence by the Review, collaborating with the Law Society and, separately, several industry representative bodies on responses as well as issuing our own, which is availablehere.
The IHRAR is expected to report in Summer 2021 with options for reform that could have significant implications for the rights and standards to be observed in the UK, the ability of individuals to enforce their rights directly before domestic courts and the scrutiny of the exercise of executive power. Its work should be read together with the work of the Independent Review of Administrative Law panel (IRAL), which is considering options for the reform to the judicial review process (Baker McKenzies submission to the IRAL can be foundhere), and which is expected to publish its conclusions this week.
The recommendations made by the IHRAR and IRAL may reshape existing constitutional norms and protections opening a path to the light-touch regulatory economy reportedly envisaged as part of the UKs post-Brexit future. Setting aside the question of how this might be pursued within the constraints of level playing field commitments made to the EU, as a practical matter, corporates operating across jurisdictions will remain tasked with meeting regulatory burdens across borders and the potential challenges in a divergence of approach in the UKs domestic application of international rights obligations, as well as the decisions of public authorities more broadly.
The framing of the Review
The HRA came into force in 2000 and has operated as a significant buttress to the respect and enforcement of individual human rights in the UK in three key ways:
Parliament will work to make sure that new legislation is compatible with the ECHR, while retaining its sovereignty and power to pass incompatible laws. The courts will also interpret laws in a way that is compatible with the ECHR where that is possible.
All public bodies (like courts, police, local authorities, hospitals and publicly funded schools) and anybody performing a public function must act with respect to, and to protect, individual human rights.
The HRA incorporates the rights set out in the ECHR into domestic British law. This allows individuals to enforce those rights before a British court, rather than having to go to the ECtHR in Strasbourg.
The IHRAR will look at the operation of the HRA in two broad ways:
The IHRAR is not considering a potential departure from the ECHR, a binding international treaty, or derogation from the ECtHR.
Baker McKenzies response to the Review
Baker McKenzie made the following points in response to the Review:
What does this Review mean for industry?
The HRA ensures consistency across the many thousands of acts or decisions of public authorities that are made each year by ensuring that they are compliant with the ECHR. Securing a level playing field in this regard between jurisdictions is a key concern for many international corporate clients who are affected by the decisions of public authorities across multiple European jurisdictions, as well as European domestic legislatures. If, following receipt of the IHRAR and the IRALs recommendations, Parliament decides to take action that might render rights protections vulnerable to executive overstep and/or remove a crucial mechanism by which the executive might be held to account for any abuse of power, this could affect the UKs ability to offer this certainty as to the rights and standards to be observed in the UK.
It is also widely recognised that the legal landscape is changing across the EEA, with ESG and human rights diligence at the forefront of many companies agendas. The trend to mandatory legislation in this space, including environmental and human rights due diligence and the prevention of modern slavery in supply chains, means that businesses are increasingly aware of the part they play in securing and protecting fundamental human rights.
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This is how the human heart adapts to space – Gwinnettdailypost.com
Posted: at 5:22 am
When astronaut Scott Kelly spent nearly a year in space, his heart shrank despite the fact that he worked out six days a week over his 340-day stay, according to a new study.
Surprisingly, researchers observed the same change in Benot Lecomte after he completed his 159-day swim across the Pacific Ocean in 2018.
The findings suggest that long-term weightlessness alters the structure of the heart, causing shrinkage and atrophy, and low-intensity exercise is not enough to keep that from happening. The study published Monday in the American Heart Association's journal Circulation.
The gravity we experience on Earth is what helps the heart to maintain both its size and function as it keeps blood pumping through our veins. Even something as simple as standing up and walking around helps pull blood down into our legs.
When the element of gravity is replaced with weightlessness, the heart shrinks in response.
Kelly lived in the absence of gravity aboard the International Space Station from March 27, 2015, to March 1, 2016. He worked out on a stationary bike and treadmill and incorporated resistance activities into his routine six days a week for two hours each day.
Lecomte swam from June 5 to November 11, 2018, covering 1,753 miles and averaging about six hours a day swimming. That sustained activity may sound extreme, but each day of swimming was considered to be low-intensity activity.
Even though Lecomte was on Earth, he was spending hours a day in the water, which offsets the effects of gravity. Long-distance swimmers use the prone technique, a horizontal facedown position, for these endurance swims.
Researchers expected that the activities performed by both men would keep their hearts from experiencing any shrinkage or weakening. Data collected from tests of their hearts before, during and after these extreme events showed otherwise.
Kelly and Lecomte both experienced a loss of mass and initial drop in diameter in the left ventricles of the heart during their experiences.
Both long-duration spaceflight and prolonged water immersion led to a very specific adaptation of the heart, said senior study author Dr. Benjamin Levine, a professor of internal medicine/cardiology at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center.
While the authors point out that they only studied two men who both performed extraordinary things, further study is needed to understand how the human body reacts in extreme situations.
No negative impact
In this case, researchers saw that the heart adapted, but the shrinkage did not cause any ill effects, present or long-term.
"The heart gets smaller and shrinks and atrophies, but it doesn't become weaker -- it's just fine," said Levine, who is also director of the Institute for Exercise and Environmental Medicine, a collaboration between UT Southwestern and Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas. "The function is normal, but because the body is used to pumping blood uphill against gravity in the upright position, when you remove that gravitational stimulus, particularly in someone who is pretty active and fit beforehand, the heart adapts to that new load."
Levine noted the plasticity and adaptability of the heart's muscle mass, nearly three-quarters of which is responsive to physical activity.
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"If there's one thing that I've learned over 25 years of studying how the heart adapts to spaceflight, exercise training and high altitude, it's that it's a remarkably adaptive organ and it responds to the demands that are placed on it."
The larger the load that's placed on the heart, the bigger it gets; the same happens in reverse.
Currently, astronauts stick with the same exercise regiment Kelly used while on the station. Looking ahead to missions to the moon and Mars, the exercise countermeasures to prevent muscle and bone loss may need to shift.
Levine believes the current countermeasures work, but limits will be placed due to the space allowed for exercise equipment on future vehicles.
Rowers have the biggest heart of any athletes, Levine said, so a combination of rowing and strength training may be the best strategy for astronauts moving forward. Rowing is a dynamic exercise because it loads the heart in a way that feels like strength and endurance training simultaneously, Levine said.
The effects of space radiation
Future long-term spaceflight missions will return humans to the moon and send them on to Mars, so understanding how spaceflight impacts all aspects of the heart is crucial.
Astronauts are largely middle-aged men and women, so the main concern is that they may experience a heart attack. These space explorers are highly screened before selection, but they deal with the same things everyone else does, including hypertension and elevated cholesterol. While NASA and medical experts can work with these known parameters as they quantify risk and choose the healthiest people, there is one large unknown: radiation exposure.
What happens to the heart arteries after long-term exposure to weightlessness and radiation? That's a question Levine and his fellow researchers want to answer in the future. They will look at the coronary arteries of astronauts before and after flight using a computed tomography angiogram, an X-ray test that can reveal the overall structure and lining of the heart arteries.
Atrial fibrillation, or a fast, irregular heartbeat, is the most common form of arrhythmia -- and astronauts are getting it about a decade earlier than the rest of the population, Levine said. That may be because the atria, the two upper chambers of the heart, get dilated in space.
Levine is concerned that astronauts could be at risk of developing this during long-duration spaceflight. While it's not life-threatening, atrial fibrillation can cause discomfort, reduce exercise tolerance and increase the risk of stroke in people who are otherwise healthy, he said.
Having access to cardiac MRIs of astronauts before and after their flight in the future could provide researchers with a better and more detailed understanding of what is happening in the right and left ventricles of the heart, said first study author Dr. James MacNamara, an advanced echocardiography fellow with UT Southwestern who works with Levine.
Levine and his colleagues will study 10 more astronauts who plan to spend a year in space over the next decade, focusing on the most intensive look at the heart arteries and muscle itself. The study will also include astronauts spending six months on the space station, as well as shorter duration flights.
"So we'll be ready when we're going to go to Mars," Levine said.
Stacker rounded upthe top 50 schools on the West Coast, based on Niche's 2021 Best Colleges in America list (updated February 2021).These institutions are in Oregon, Washington, and California. Click for more.
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White Ops Takes On Human Rebrand 03/30/2021 – MediaPost Communications
Posted: at 5:22 am
White Ops, known for its focus on protecting companiesfrom bot attacks, has rebranded to HUMAN to more authentically represent its values. The announcement made Tuesday.
The company -- which is now owned by Goldman Sachs MerchantBanking Division, in partnership with ClearSky Security and NightDragon -- said the name reflects its strong commitment to equality and diversity.
It marks a renewed pledge to carry out theteams long-held mission of protecting the integrity of the internet by disrupting the economics of cybercrime, according to Tamer Hassan, CEO and co-founder of WhiteOps, which has now beenrebranded to HUMAN.
Hassan announced a change in the works last October. During the past six months, the brand team spoke to customers, partners, analysts, industry leaders, employees, familyand friends, before deciding to make the change.
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The company reviewed thousands of potential names, said Dan Lowden, CMO of HUMAN, adding that we kept coming back to HUMAN, a themeweve embodied since 2014.
As the new name suggests, the company plans to infuse humanity into the digital experience.
What does that mean? Lowden tells usthat the company fights daily to protect our customers' digital experiences.
This new identity galvanizes the vision that defines the future of the cybersecurity market on thecompanys terms, not the bots.
Bot attacks are impacting business in every corner of the internet, and are a much bigger problem than most companies realize.
WhiteOps' HumanVerification Engine protects applications, APIs, and digital media from bot attacks, preventing losses and improving the digital experience for real humans. Knowing who is a real human is one of manycomplex issues across the internet.
HUMAN now verifies more than 10 trillion interactions per week, protecting many of the largest enterprises and internet platforms. In 2020, the company saw34% growth in its customer base and 30% global growth across its teams.
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Neuroscientists discover ‘zombie genes’ that come to life in the human brain after death – National Post
Posted: at 5:22 am
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The growth in cells was mostly noted in the groups of glial cells, which are responsible for carrying out post-mortem maintenance
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Once a human dies so does their body, we might assume. All major systems shut down, muscles gradually atrophy and all organs, including the brain, are rendered obsolete.
Not quite so, researchers at the University of Illinois have discovered. Turns out some cells in the human brain dont take kindly to being told their services are no longer needed and instead grow in size and ramp up their activity for hours after death.
Scientists studying samples of brain tissue collected during routine brain surgery, watched as these cells, aptly named zombie genes, sprouted tentacles and went on to clean things up in the brain for several hours post-mortem.
Only glial cells, inflammatory cells that support the neurons, were observed carrying out the post-mortem maintenance, the researchers wrote in their study.
That glial cells enlarge after death isnt too surprising given that they are inflammatory and their job is to clean things up after brain injuries like oxygen deprivation or stroke, Dr. Jeffrey Loeb, a neurologist at the University of Illinois and corresponding author on the paper, said in a news release.
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Most previous work on neurological gene expression and brain disorders has been done on brain tissues that have been dead for 12 hours or more.
However Loeb and his team, noticing differences between the global pattern of activity in fresh human brain tissue versus older tissue, decided to run a simulated death experiment to observe the level of activity in the brain immediately after it was declared dead to about a day post-mortem.
They used samples of recently collected brain tissues, which had been kept at room temperature to replicate the postmortem interval.
About 80 per cent of the genes analyzed in the brain remained relatively stable for 24 hours, researchers reported, which include genes that provide the basic cellular functions of the brain. Another group of genes connected to human brain activity such as memory, thinking and seizure activity, quickly degraded after death.
However, as the neuronal genes slowed, the zombie genes ramped up their activity, researchers found. This pattern in post-mortem changes continued for several hours, peaking at about 12 hours.
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The discovery, Loeb said, could change the way research studies use postmortem brain tissues to research cures for mental illnesses such as Alzheimers, and schizophrenia and developmental disorders such as autism.
Most studies assume that everything in the brain stops when the heart stops beating, but this is not so, Loeb said. Our findings will be needed to interpret research on human brain tissues. We just havent quantified these changes until now.
The good news from our findings is that we now know which genes and cell types are stable, which degrade, and which increase over time so that results from postmortem brain studies can be better understood, he said.
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Office Space Will Be The Next Frontier Post-Pandemic – Forbes
Posted: at 5:22 am
When workers start returning to their offices chances are they will look and feel very different. ... [+] (AP Photo/Yuri Kageyama)
We know some people are going to go back to some offices. We know those office spaces will be different than they used to be. And we know the commercial real estate industry is facing one of its most serious challenges in modern history.
But theres so much more we dont know and that will make the next 12 to 18 months an unprecedented time both for companies moving back into office spaces and the businesses that own and lease these spaces.
Forget about outer space being the final frontier: inner space in offices is certainly shaping up as the next frontier as the country starts to enter the post-pandemic era.
The quantitative and qualitative reports already coming out from across business indicate that were starting to see the first real signs of how this next phase may play out. At the height of the pandemic last year, its estimated that more half of the entire U.S. workforce did their jobs at home, up from single digits previously, according to IDC, a market research company. Emergent Research says that 15 to 18% of the workforce is likely to remain home-based once the pandemic subsides with most workers operating on a hybrid model, with some time spent in the office and some at home.
In the meantime, major companies like JPMorgan Chase JPM , Salesforce CRM and PricewaterhouseCoopers are all looking to sublet major portions of their existing office space, according to the Wall Street Journal. At the end of last year the amount of space available for sublet was up 40% from the prior year and at its highest level since 2003, CBRE Group CBRE reported.
Prices of existing premium office space dropped 17% over the past year in New York and San Francisco, worse than the national average of 13% said real estate firm JLL JLL .
So, theres no doubt the office market is going to be challenged. But property owners and real estate leasing companies alike are working to figure out how to navigate these new conditions and both see a very different commercial space landscape going forward. Among the key new characteristics are:
More use of flexible office space providers like WeWork as employers look for short-term solutions until more regular office work patterns return. Green Street, a real estate analytics company, estimates that flex leases will grow from their current share of 2% of the overall market to as much as 10% by the end of this decade.
Some office space will converted to alternative uses and while that might include the obvious choice of residential use, a less apparent reuse could be as distribution centers for e-commerce companies. With office space centrally located and adjacent to transportation these buildings could be attractive choices rather than warehouses away from major population areas, especially as same-day and even two-hour delivery becomes more common. Prologis PLD , which services the field, says a lot of its demand in the past decade has been focused in major 24-hour cities.
When office buildings do start to welcome daily workers back, chances are they will look and feel differently than in the past, says Gabe Marans, executive managing director for Savills, a major real estate leasing company. Like other businesses that have been challenged they will learn to adapt to new conditions. Remember when movie theaters upgraded? They put in reclining seats, better food and drink service. They had no choice but to offer an experience customers couldnt achieve at home, said Marans.
My prediction is that offices will be next to undergo a similar transformation. If companies want employees back in the office, everything will need to be reimagined. And employees will expect a workplace that they cant achieve remotely.
Marans says that means more services like child care, in-office health providers and even nap spaces. Individual work spaces will get bigger again, reversing a trend that had seen them decline over the past decade and there will be more collaborative huddle spaces.
Depending on the size of the office, these services will be provided by either the individual tenant or the office building itself. This will be the office 2.0, providing an experience and working environment that cant be replicated at home. Were starting to see this happening already.
While offices will need to adapt they also must be able to provide some of the comforts of home that workers have gotten used to over the past year. Thats the opinion of Gensler, the renowned architectural firm that has just issued an 81-page report on how office space will evolve going forward. It will put extra focus on health, wellness and flexibility, according to published reports. Theres going to be a lot of emphasis on technology to keep us connected and also new policies from both building operators and companies to allow that flexibility and virtual work to thrive, said Bill Baxley, managing director of Genslers Minneapolis office.
He added that Gensler learned that people miss the human experience of the traditional office setting, and that the hybrid working model is here to stay.
The return back to the office will no doubt be a long, slow process and as with most predictions about the impact of Covid, subject to constant revision. Even as many workers tell survey takers they like working from home others says they are anxious to get back to the office and out of their homes.
However many do come back and when when it happens they are likely to find the offices very different places from when they abruptly left more than a year ago.
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Office Space Will Be The Next Frontier Post-Pandemic - Forbes
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