Category Archives: Transhuman News

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According to new research by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, front liners who have been fully vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccines produced by Moderna and Pfizer no longer carry the virus and show an extremely reduced risk of infection.

Were vaccinating so very fast, our data from the CDC today suggests that vaccinated people do not carry the virus, dont get sick, and that its not just in the clinical trials but its also in real world data, CDC director Rochelle Walensky told MSNBCs Rachel Maddow this week.

Thats very good news, considering that the CDC has been warning those who had been vaccinated to still be cautious, wear masks, and socially distance.

The studyexamined 3,950 vaccinated healthcare workers, first responders, and other essential workers across eight locations in the country over a period of 13 weeks. After a second dose of the vaccine, risk of infection was reduced by an astonishing 90 percent.

This study shows that our national vaccination efforts are working, Walensky said in an official statement.

These findings should offer hope to the millions of Americans receiving COVID-19 vaccines each day and to those who will have the opportunity to roll up their sleeves and get vaccinated in the weeks ahead, Walensky added. The authorized vaccines are the key tool that will help bring an end to this devastating pandemic.

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Vaccinated People Don't Appear to Spread COVID, and That's Incredible News - Futurism

Since the stone, bronze, and iron ages, humans have found new means to protect themselves and kill one another. Weapons like iron swords, tanks, and nuclear weapons transformed the globe, while others only merit mention on a Gizmodo listicle. At the same time, peaceful technologies like the printing press, the power loom, and computers disrupted economies, societies, and even governments. Today, a whole host of technologies from fifth-generation wireless communication to artificial intelligence and quantum computing all have broad implications for society, economies, and warfare.

Technological change is not new. Nor does a focus on technology at this particular moment make one a blinkered futurist. Technology is an instrument of national power that feeds and in turn is fed by other elements of national power. With so many technologies with potentially transformative applications emerging at once, focusing on understanding, developing, and leveraging these technologies is well justified, even if it seems myopic at times.

These technologies are emerging at the same time as between China and the United States. In War on the Rocks, John Speed Meyers and David Jackson argue that a divide exists between those who believe these technologies are critical to that conflict (futurists) and those who do not (traditionalists). While the authors offer some excellent recommendations and their essay is worth a read, they present a false choice. Meyers and Jackson would certainly classify me as a futurist I write, speak, and am quoted in news media frequently on drones, drone swarms, and artificial intelligence and frequently cite scientific literature in my analysis. However, I certainly do not believe technology is the only aspect of the U.S.-Chinese competition. Sure, I and other researchers may focus on technology to the exclusion of other elements of national power, but so too may other researchers emphasize diplomacy, trade, or military organization above other elements of national power. It just so happens that right now, the technological face of national power is changing drastically.

Technology as an Element of National Power

Technology is clearly at the core of most military power. Technology enables the acquisition, improvement, and sustainment of military capabilities. A dirigible fleet might have made some sense in 1921, but states have fighter aircraft, bombers, and helicopters now. These capabilities matter for hard power-based strategies too. Deterrence requires a state to have the capability to follow through with a threat. Nuclear deterrence is the ultimate expression of how technology shapes military power and strategy because it revolves around the possession of nuclear weapons enabled by submarines, missiles, bombers, and other supporting systems. Whether a particular technology actually matters is an important question, but technology is still central.

Better technology also means more demand for and impact in foreign military assistance. States benefit more when they are provided with cutting-edge weapons. Military assistance can also help the United States and others improve and build relationships with weapon recipients and exercise influence. After the success of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, Ukraine bought the system from Turkey too. Providing drones and other weapons to a state creates a level of dependency for future maintenance, parts, and upgrades.

Technology also enables diplomatic power in other ways. In 2010, I lived in a poor neighborhood in Damascus, Syria, and yet I could easily buy the latest Hollywood blockbusters from a shop down the street. The film was bootlegged, to be sure, but computers, the internet, and DVDs made possible its presence in a Damascus slum. More broadly, American and Soviet Union battles over propaganda, news, and culture during the Cold War were only possible because of the radio. The voice of America needs a megaphone to be heard across the globe.

Technology also helps build and transform economies. Computers and the internet are a particularly extreme example. In 2018, Apple became the first publicly traded company worth $1 trillion and crossed $2 trillion in market value in 2020. Microsoft hit the $1 trillion mark in April 2019 and Alphabet, Googles parent company, followed in January 2020. That wealth helps enable specific levers of influence like economic sanctions.

Other Elements of National Power Support Technology

As technology supports military, diplomatic, and economic power, so too do those elements of power support technology.

The quest for military superiority has long driven innovation. The Global Positioning System (GPS) used throughout the civilian world is fundamentally a U.S. military system the U.S. Space Force designs, develops, and sustains the 24 satellites that comprise the GPS constellation. Military funding made possible a host of other transformative inventions from the internet to the walkie-talkie. Although the private sector now drives the current explosion of artificial intelligence, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency funding over the past decades helped make that explosion possible. In fact, a lack of military funding was an important contributor to the so-called AI winter where progress stalled considerably during the mid-1980s.

Diplomacy helps technology too. The United States funds scientific research around collective global problems like climate change and disease, hosts scientific exchanges, and embarks on joint ventures like the International Space Station, none of which would be possible without American diplomatic resources. The United States also inks research and development agreements to pool resources, access specialized expertise, and generally respond to shared threats. Technology-specific opportunities exist too, such as trading datasets to create larger, more diverse datasets to train AI algorithms.

A wealthy, free country draws innovation. Innovation requires the resource commitment to experiment, quickly decide if the experiment is worthwhile, and if it is, transition the innovation to operations, organization, and strategy. Researchers also must have the flexibility and freedom to explore new ideas, even ones that may upend the status quo. People need resources and freedom too. A prosperous, free state draws the best and brightest from around the world, especially when talent for major technology like artificial intelligence comes from abroad.

Todays Technology Focus

Focusing on technology is appropriate because it is changing in major ways, with significant implications for broader national power. Artificial intelligence has broad applications across warfare, from improving financial management and payroll systems to streamlining logistics, building sophisticated autonomous drone swarms, and identifying nuclear submarines. 3-D printers are producing COVID-19 masks, mobile trailers, drones, and parts for the International Space Station. Technology evangelists claim 3-D printing could revolutionize manufacturing. At the same time, CRISPR-CAS9 (short for Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) enables easier genetic engineering to improve agricultural research and develop better cancer medications, and it may enable the acquisition of current and novel biological weapons agents, enhance the capabilities of those agents, and potentially create genetically engineered super soldiers. Regardless of whether these technologies are about to turn Star Trek from science fiction into reality, there are clearly opportunities and risks that the United States should identify, exploit, and counter as appropriate.

A bit of innovation hype is a good thing. With any emerging technology, the actual importance is difficult (if not impossible) to know a priori. A great example is French versus German use of tanks in World War II, during which French commanders saw tanks as an adjunct to infantry while Germany made the tank central to its strategy. Had France realized how the tank could be used, perhaps it would have not been soundly defeated. Hype builds the excitement to ask: Well, what could a tank or any other emerging technology do? Hype promises the potential for promotion, wealth, and advancing national security by finding a great answer. Perhaps dreams of a city of gold manifest as a small chest of silver, a simple technological application that makes real but not transformative change. But that chest would never have been found without the motivation to seek it in the first place. As long as expectations adapt to subsequent evidence about the most effective and realistic applications of a given technology, the risk of wasting money, time, and people on a fruitless or overhyped technology can be effectively managed.

Integrating Technology

With the advent of AI and robotics, hypersonic missiles, quantum computing, synthetic biology, genetic engineering, and other novelties, technology is changing rapidly. The United States needs to ensure this element of national power is well integrated with military, diplomatic, and economic power. Specifically, the United States should undertake the following steps.

Search for Synergies

The United States should search for opportunities to connect technology and other instruments of national power. With the increasing focus on China, the United States could seek out new research collaboration with regional allies. For example, Taiwans investment in a new AI business park shows the country desires a more robust AI capability. Encouraging U.S. companies, universities, and agencies to find opportunities for joint AI development could generate wealth for both the United States and Taiwan, lead to military-relevant innovations, support U.S.-Taiwanese relations, and strengthen overall an important partner. Likewise, the United States could aim to encourage friends and allies to create and expand similar types of efforts, such as India and Japans cooperation on unmanned ground vehicles. Bilateralism could be extended to multilateralism to create a regional technology forum for friends and allies to share their work and identify new opportunities for collaboration.

Align Technology to Objectives

If technology is a core component of national power, investment, research, acquisition, policy, and strategy around technology should be aligned to support national objectives. Various thinkers have proposed some form of U.S. national technology strategy. I agree. Such a strategy should emphasize not only which technologies matter, but how best to integrate the national security bureaucracy to serve broader objectives. In the last few years, the United States has established the Department of Defense Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, the Army Futures Command, the State Department Bureau for Cybersecurity and Emerging Technologies, and the new post of deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology. An effective strategy should answer several questions How best can these organizations work together and with existing technology-related organizations? And how best can the bureaucracy accelerate the technology pipeline, moving from an initial concept to working prototype to testing and verification to operations across the military, national security complex, and society as a whole?

Technology is just one element of national power. The American government must consider how technology best serves its objectives in conjunction with other capabilities. That means the government needs folks to think about the implications of emerging technology, just as it needs folks to think about global changes in trade regimes, international organizations, and military strategy. Creating an artificial divide between emerging technology and everything else is a mistake.

Zachary Kallenborn is a research affiliate with the Unconventional Weapons and Technology Division of the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), a policy fellow at the Schar School of Policy and Government, a U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command Mad Scientist, and national security consultant. His work has been published in a wide range of peer-reviewed, trade, and popular outlets, including Foreign Policy, Slate, War on the Rocks, and the Nonproliferation Review. Journalists have written about and shared that research in Forbes, Popular Mechanics, Wired, The Federalist, Yahoo News!, the National Interest, and MSN.

The views expressed above do not necessarily represent the views of any current or former funder, employer, or affiliate.

Image: Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Huey D. Younger, Jr.

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National Security Needs Both Futurists and Traditionalists - War on the Rocks

During a chat with Kara Swisher for The New York Times today, Apple CEO Tim Cook sang the praises of the companys upcoming augmented reality glasses.

Basically, he suggested that AR is going to turn regular conversations into Powerpoint presentations complete with graphs thatll pop up while youre talking to illustrate the point youre trying to make.

Well, I cant talk about anything that may or may not be in the pipeline, he said. But in terms of AR, the promise of AR is that you and I are having a great conversation right now.

Arguably, it could even be better if we were able to augment our discussion with charts or other things to appear, Cook said. And your audience would also benefit from this, too, I think.

Having fun yet? Its not the sexiest vision of the future. Given the immense promise of AR, its surprising to hear the CEO of the biggest tech company in the world jump to something so banal.

Whatever happened to playing Pokemon Go without ever having to glance down at your phone? What about Google Maps directions? Heck, what about sex?

To Cook, AR is here to stay and is already showing great promise in fields like health, education, retail and gaming. Cook also agreed when Swisher asked him if he thinks AR is a critically important part of Apples future.

According to the latest leaks, Apples mixed reality headsets could represent a significant technological leap forward. The device is rumored to be extremely lightweight, weighing even less than an iPhone 12 while still providing a degree of immersion thanks to cutting-edge optics.

But selling such a technology to the masses will likely require more than a promise to insert charts into conversations with other people. Augmented reality headsets havent hit the mainstream yet, with developer-focused devices such as Microsofts HoloLens 2 costing as much as $3,500.

Apples upcoming headset may feature nearly as hefty a price tag, costing as much as $3,000 if the rumors are to be believed.

The company is setting itself up for an uphill battle: the adoption of mixed reality headsets will heavily depend on not only proving to consumers that the techis mature, but also that it has a reason to exist.

READ MORE: Tim Cook says Apple wants to use AR to make conversations better [The Verge]

More on the headset: New Details Leak About Apples Virtual Reality Headset

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The CEO of Apple Thinks People Will Use Augmented Reality for Something Absolutely Hilarious - Futurism

David Houle| Sarasota Herald-Tribune

This is uncharted territory for all of us.Everyone has opinions.Mainstream media coverage is immediate and shallow.So, to honor the title of this column I submit to you my prognostications for the last nine months of this year.

In several prior columns here I suggested that, unless the Biden administration accelerated the number of vaccines per day over the 1 million they promised before Inauguration Day, we would not begin to approach herd immunity until the fourth quarter of 2021 at the earliest.Given that on recent days the number of shots is three times that, the date might move up to the end of the third quarter.

What this means is thatquarantining will end this summer.The beginning of the rebound thatI wrote about in my mini-ebook that many of you have read will begin in earnest in the fourth quarter.The fourth quarter of 2021 through the same quarter of 2022will be one of solid economic growth. Again, I caution readers to not get caught up in the hype of comparing 2021 with 2020 as last year was a one-time-only event.Economic comparisons of 2021 will be valid when compared to 2019 and 2020 think of the hospitality industry.

In a prior column I suggested that those who refused to get vaccinated would be kept on the outside of many public opportunities.This will become the reality starting in the summer.What that means is that while non-vaxxers may be able to dine in restaurants and attend outdoor events with social distancing, they wont be able to travel internationally, attend many conferences, possibly send their children to school and attend most indoor events.

Right now, the view of international travel is that a vaccine passport, or the showing of a fully vaccinated card from the CDC (I just got my card with my second shot on 3/29)will be essential for any international travel and that wont begin until the late summer at the earliest.Given that so many nations are behind the U.S. when it comes to vaccinations, there will be dozens of countries where one will not be able to travel without such vaccine documentation through the balance of 2022.

I have always had trouble with people who refuse to get vaccinated for the common good of society during the pandemic.I believe in the science of vaccines.It kept me from getting the measles, polio, smallpox and the flu, to name just four.It also taught me that the world is round, that climate change is real and that the tides relate to the moon.The science shows that wearing masks significantly prevents the transmission of COVID-19 and that the vaccines for COVID-19 are effective. Period.

Now that we keep getting ever more facts and polls about the virus ithas been documented that, for many, not getting thevaccine is grounded in politics.Why can I say this?Recent national polling shows that of the people who say they will not get the vaccine, the single largest group 49% of the total are self-described men who voted for Trump.

(I immediately wondered why women Trump voters did not show up in similar numbers.Women, is there something about you that transcends politics when it comes to family health? I have not seen any answer to that question.)

We can choose to disagree. However,I must prepare any of my readers who have chosen not to get the vaccine what is ahead.As referenced above, you will not be able to travel internationally for another year unless you accept the quarantine regulations of the country you will be visiting.That usually means quarantining for five to 14 days, having negative virus tests and informing the government of exactly where you will be traveling in country.Not a good thing if one wants to take a two-week vacation.

In addition, I have read and watched stories of restaurants and other hospitality businesses that so want to open and be safe that they will be asking for proof of vaccination.The exceptions will be the wearing of masks.If you refuse to get a vaccination and refuse to wear a mask, your life will be limited to some degree.Freedom of choice means living with the consequences of that choice. There are consequences to actions that civil society imposes on all of us.Drive while drunk and get caught:DUI and license revocation.That is the way it is.If you choose to not get vaccinated for the virus there will be consequences that will be restricting.

This might make you consider getting vaccinated for the common good.

The obvious person to quote here is John Stuart Mill,the famous 19th century British philosopher who famously said:

The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others. His own good, either physical or moral, is not sufficient warrant.

Accept this and you will be fine with your decision and the restrictions you have self-imposed on yourself

As this column is being written during the final days of March, when we are all high fiving each other by having gotten our vaccines, warnings are coming from public health officials.The rapid decline of deaths, hospitalizations and new cases from the January peak has now leveled off, and in fact are going up.This is coincidental to Americans travelling a more than at any time since we first locked down. It is also coincidental to some 20 states doing away with mask mandates.The two things health scientists have said would create problems are now doing just that.

We have all gone so long with this virus nightmare, we just need to hang on for a couple more months. I say this because if we have another spike later this spring, then the forecasts of opening up early fall might get pushed back.

As I wrote in my mini-ebook, published 1/1/21: The last 10 months of 2020 were about COVID-19 and the first 10 months of 2021 will be about it as well.

The acceleration of vaccinations now occurring could move that up by a couple of months to August.

This will not occur if less than 75% of the population get vaccinated by theend of summer.Again, it is up to us to put this horrid virus behind us.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written seven books and is futurist in residence at the Ringling College of Art + Design. His website isdavidhoule.com. Email him atdavid@davidhoule.com.

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FUTURIST: Post-COVID predictions for now through end of year - Sarasota Herald-Tribune

SpaceXs Starship prototype SN11 wasnt long for this world.

During its fateful launch last week, the massive spacecraft took off inside a cloud of heavy fog at the companys facilities in Boca Chica, Texas, obscuring its ascent to roughly ten kilometers completely.

Several minutes into the flight, SpaceXs official video feeds cut out.Shortly after, a massive explosion could be heard on various livestreams of the event, with heavy rocket parts raining down from the skies. SN11 was no more.

Now, according to CEO Elon Musk, engineers at SpaceX may have figured out what caused the fourth full-scale prototype to blow up.

Ascent phase, transition to horizontaland control during free fall were good, Musk wrote in a Monday tweet. A (relatively) small CH4 leak led to fire on engine 2and fried part of avionics, causing hard start attempting landing burn in CH4 turbopump, he added.

In other words, a Raptor engine caught fire because of a methane leak, leading to a hard start in the engines methane turbopump, a component that increases pressure in the rockets combustion chamber.

The event was seemingly triggered while SN11 was trying to reignite its engines to slow its descent.

Thanks to the heavy fog on March 30, we werent able to watch the explosion unfold on camera. But an animation of what the explosion may have looked like by SpaceX enthusiast Erc X could give us an idea.

The brief animation shows the prototype bursting into a cloud of shrapnel and smoke well above the surface, as it attempted to right itself following its belly flop maneuver during descent.

But Musk is ready to leave SN11s demise behind. In only a short period of time were still not entirely sure when exactly the space companys next Starship prototype, called SN15, will roll out on the launch pad.

[SN15] has hundreds of design improvements across structures, avionics/softwareand engine, Musk tweeted shortly after SN11s explosion. Hopefully, one of those improvements covers this problem. If not, then retrofit will add a few more days.

SN15 will also feature plenty of fixes that address the small methane leak causing SN11 to rip itself into pieces. This is getting fixed 6 ways to Sunday, Musk added in todays tweet.

All we can do is wait and see if the fifth times the charm. If Musk is to be believed, SN15 will be an entirely new beast but theres no guarantee its launch wont end in yet another explosion.

READ MORE: Musk says methane leak doomed latest Starship test flight [Spaceflight Now]

More on Starship: SpaceX Makes Progress on Launch Tower Meant to Catch Starship Booster

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Elon Musk Reveals Why Last Starship Prototype Exploded Before Landing - Futurism

The legendary multi-award-winning stage show Too Much Light Makes The Baby Go Blind (now in its 4th decade!) continues its live nationwide adaptation on Zoom with two special, two-person performances on April 9th and 10th, 2021 at 9pm Eastern Standard Time. Now in its 6th month with a nationwide cast and audience as Too Much Light Makes The Baby Go Zoom, the show will again attempt the IMPOSSIBLE: performing 30 Plays in 60 Minutes with 2 People! Writing, directing and performing are show creator and Neo-Futurism inventor Greg Allen (he/him/his) and Jasmine Rose (they/them/theirs), a four-year veteran of Detroit's UnTheatre Company's ongoing run of Too Much Light.... And they're performing for free to raise money for the beloved theater company!

"When I opened the show in 1988 people thought I was out of my mind," says Allen, "'30 Plays in 60 Minutes? That's impossible!'." The show went on to run continually for 28 years in Chicago and ongoingly with hundreds of productions literally around the world.

When the pandemic hit, producer Christina Killmar didn't want to stop their four-year run of Too Much Light... so she talked to Allen about adapting it to be performed live on Zoom. "I thought that was an insane idea so of course I said 'Yes' and joined the cast from Chicago" says Allen. Performing every weekend with a cast from New York to California signing on live to Zoom proved exciting and the show continued its run to great acclaim.

"There are other companies showing live theater on film or creating canned videos, but our audience is joining us for a LIVE interactive performance on Zoom with all the ritual traditions of the stage show: play order determined by the audience, the menu, the clock, the nametags, audience participation, new plays every week - the works! It's the closest thing you'll get to in-person theater during the pandemic" says Allen.

When it looked like the cast would be shorthanded in the beginning of April, Allen asked Rose if they would be up for attempting the impossible: performing the show with only two people. "It sounds impossible. It's never been done. It couldn't be done on stage, but on Zoom...? I'll do it!" answered Rose.

So, for the first time in the 33-year history of Too Much Light..., two Neo-Futurists will attempt to perform all "30 Plays in 60 Minutes" starting at 9pm on Friday and Saturday, April 9th and 10th, 2021. Admission is the usual sliding scale of $10 to $20 and every penny raised will go to benefit UnTheatre Company! "Such a special show deserves a special beneficiary," declared Rose.

Tickets are available at http://www.UnTheatreCo.org. Too Much Light Makes The Baby Go Zoom will then continue its regular performances every Friday and Saturday at 9pm on April 23rd and 24th and beyond with its usual nationwide cast of Neo-Futurist writer/director/performers including Allen and Rose.

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UnTheatre Co. Presents THE IMPOSSIBLE SHOW - Broadway World

Earlier this month, the Food and Drug Administration and the Southern Nevada Health District announced an investigation into five cases of non-viral hepatitis, which later resulted in acute liver failure in five infants and children.

All five children, they say, had consumed alkalized water products by Nevada-based Real Water the only common link among them, Ars Technica reports.

Following the investigation, several customers have filed lawsuits against the company. Three women from California are even seeking class-action status for their federal lawsuit filed on March 22.

The FDA has become aware that Real Water brand alkaline water is still being offered for sale through online retailers, an official March 31 statement by the agency reads. The agency is working to locate any remaining products to ensure they are no longer available to consumers.

Worse yet, Real Water reportedly isnt cooperating. According to the FDA, the company isnt contacting distributors to inform them about the recall.

Given a lack of cooperation by the firm, FDA investigators have been unable to complete investigations at the Real Water Inc. facilities in Henderson, NV and Mesa, AZ and have not been provided with requested records, the statement read.

The story gets even stranger. The water product companys attorney Charles LoBello told local district judge Elizabeth Gonzalez that both Real Waters plant manager and lead technician appeared to have run for the hills, according to the Las Vegas Review Journal.

There has been difficulty getting ahold of them, LoBello told the judge, asking for two weeks to search for them.

A different attorney of the company, however, said that the company has done everything to cooperate with the FDA, according to the Review-Journal.

Five gallon jugs of the water have now been handed over to the FDA for analysis.

Plaintiff attorney Will Kempsaid that a super bad batch that was reportedly produced in October could be behind the illnesses, according to the newspaper.

But there may be more systemic issues in play.

The whole manufacturing process is flawed in the first place, Kemp told the outlet.

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A Popular Brand of Bottled Water Got Linked to Liver Failure - Futurism