Category Archives: Futurist

David Houle

(NOTE: Most of this column is a direct quote from my second book on the Shift Age Entering the Shift Age published in 2012.)

Prior to the development of the communications technologies of the last 200 years, the concept of place was an overriding reality of human life. Where one lived largely determined ones life, as other places could not be experienced without lengthy and arduous travel.This meant that the concept of place was the dominant reality and ones life was largely defined by what one did and experienced in that place. Reality meant physical reality.

Even during the explosive growth of communications technologies such as the telegraph, telephone, radio and television from the 1830s through the 1970s, one had to be in a specific place to communicate with another place. The telegraph office gave way to the telephone at home and at work, both connected to the wall.Radios were large and in the home, as were televisions. The experienced reality was still about places with these electric devices anchored in them.So, one lived in a place, was largely defined by that place, and was connected to the world through these place-based appliances.

No longer.

We now live in a broadband world, the world of connectivity.This new broadband world shows up on screen, from giant televisions to smartphones.

This screen reality can be every bit as compelling as the reality that we physically inhabit.Do we not all check our screens with close to addictive regularity?Isnt how a teenager is perceived at night on social media every bit as important to them as how they are seen in school the next day?

This connectedness, happening at the speed of light, is creating an entirely new place: the noosphere. Our physical reality exists in the biosphere the thin surface of the planet where life exists. But this new, rapidly growing noosphere is the electronic extension of our collective neurological activity. It is a pulsing, cyber-repository of humanitys creative brainpower, knowledge, history, culture, social interactions, entertainment, and commerce.This is a global village vastly more comprehensive and interconnected than Marshall McLuhan could ever have envisioned when he coined the phrase electric village more than 50 years ago. We now live in a two-reality world: the physical reality in which we live and the noosphere reality of the screen that connects us to everything and everyone else on the planet.

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The Shift Age is the first time that humanity has experienced these two realities. These realities will develop at significantly different evolutionary rates. This will cause an incredible transformation of physical reality and of human consciousness.

Often, if not always the future shows up first in the screen reality and then the physical reality. Here is one clear, real-time example of that.

10 years ago I was speaking to dozens of CEO groups and dozens of business conferences every year, These audiences expect a futurist to provide forecasts. Back during the Great Recession, it became clear that online retail was growing dramatically while physical retail was not. As a big fan of Amazon since the late 1990s, I was impressed with their long-term focus on growth and total market share. All the time that financial analysts criticized the company for low or non-existent profits, Amazon always responded that they were focused on the long-term.

At this same time, in an already over-retailed America, retail chains were fighting for anchor positions in new malls, undertaking growth for growth's sake.Basically, physical retail chains were competing against each other in the physical reality at a time when online retail was gaining ever more total market share.

So I looked at that reality and projected rapid growth online with flat to down growth in physical retail. I then, and for several years from 2010-2014 stated that the 2010-2020 decade would be a time of massive contraction in the physical retail space. That was clearly a forecast that came true. Dozens, if not hundreds of retail chains and outlets declared bankruptcy in this decade.

The key lesson to learn here is that, if one operates in physical reality, one must be aware of what is going on in the screen reality. The screen reality has, is, and will reshape our physical realities, business and personal.

NOTE TO READERS: In this space at the Herald-Tribune I write future-focused columns through a local filter. Three months ago, I launched a newsletter that covers many topics not covered here. You can sign up atEvolutionshift.substack.com.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written 13 books and is futurist in residence at Ringling College of Art andDesign. His websites aredavidhoule.comandthe2020sdecade.com. Email him at david@davidhoule.com.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: The two realities of the Shift Age | The Futurist

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The two realities of the Shift Age | The Futurist

Women futurists shape the future

Increasingly futurists are being hired by businesses to present visions of what the future could look like. Sometimes futurists are sci fi writers like Isaac Asimov (whose books inspired Elon Musks companies), and other times they predict business futures like Faith Popcorn. In 1991 Faith predicted that "humanoid robots" would become companions and workers. As we see automation and robotics have found their way into our businesses and our lives; we can see she was right.

There arent a ton of resources compiling lists of female futurists, other than this list from Ross Dawson. But this is an important community that has a voice. We need to make sure they have a platform to share their ideas. Women bring unique perspectives, and the experience of being able to bear children. After centuries of decisions being made almost entirely by men, now women are stepping up to shape the future in real and concrete ways. The way we approach global challenges for the future matters, and its critical that women are a central part of shaping this conversation.

In the past, the roles of corporate leaders and futurists have been predominantly male, but in recent years, women have started making their mark. Roughly one-third of members of the Association of Professional Futurists are women, and the leaders of many futurist groups are female. These women are looking at vast possibilities on topics ranging from business to education and technology to see what the future holds.

Women need to be visible in boardrooms, at conferences, and anywhere we are planning how to make our societies healthy and more equitable for tomorrow. The unique female perspective creates more diversity of thought and opinion, which opens the future to fresh ideas that represent the entire population.

On Sunday March 8, International Womens Day, were celebrating the women leaders working to create solutions for potential futures. These women are looking ahead to prepare themselves, their organizations and their audiences for how the world could change. And as they delve into the future, they have a chance to shape it. This list was created to help build community among this group, but also for conference organizers and businesses that want to engage futurists.

These 50 women are shaping the future and encouraging and inspiring other females to join them:

Amy Webb

Named by Forbes as one of the Women Changing the World, Amy Webb is a quantitative futurist. She is a professor of strategic foresight at the NYU Stern School of Business and founder of the Future Today Institute, a leading foresight and strategy firm that helps leaders and their organizations prepare for complex futures. Founded in 2006, the Institute advises Fortune 100 and Global 1000 companies, investment firms and government agencies.

Cindy Frewen

Cindy Frewen is an architect and urban designer who examines how buildings will grow and interact with people in the future. She consults on the future of cities and how architecture and technology can work together. Cindy is the head of the Association of Professional Futurists and has received awards for her sustainable designs and community development.

Amy Zalman

Amy Zalman specializes in using storytelling to guide strategy and communications and has worked with governments and companies around the world. She is the former CEO of the World Future Society and is involved in a number of global causes, including promoting peace and global security.

Madeline Ashby

Madeline Ashby is a science fiction writer and speaker who has applied science fiction prototypes to a number of leading organizations. She examines the future by telling stories about topics ranging from smart cities to global security and the future of warfare.

Erica Orange

Erica Orange is an executive at The Future Hunters, where she identifies trends and changes for large companies and public agencies. Erica is focused on changing demographics, including Millennials and the growth of the she-conomy, as well as new technology and its interaction with humans.

Shara Evans

Shara Evans expertise lies in telecommunications analysis. Her expansive career has provided the foundation to look towards the future of telecom in Australia and around the world. She is focused on the future of technology, including robotics, cybercrime and consumer tech.

Nancy Giordano

From a career of working with the worlds top organizations, Nancy Giordano has become a leading futurist helping businesses transform and succeed. She aims to help organizations become more sustainable and beneficial to society by combining the future of tech, business and social issues.

Tessa Finlev

Tessa Finlev works at the intersection of cultural change, diversity and inclusion with an eye towards the future. She encourages civic engagement and social change to create sustainable systems that solve the worlds problems.

Kristin Alford

Combining science, art and innovation, Kristin Alford is passionate about driving sustainable change in the future and in inspiring the next generation of futurists. She is involved in developing smart cities that offer sustainable environmental and economic solutions.

Mei-Mei Song

As a professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan, Mei-Mei Song is a global leader in the future of education and globalization. Her work has the potential to shape future teachers and universities around the world, especially as more technology is integrated into education.

Fabienne Goux-Baudiment

With a passion for the future of education and training new futurists, Fabienne Goux-Baudiment studies and speaks on a variety of topics ranging from climate change to robots and how cultures and people need to continually evolve. Her work has been applied to numerous government organizations and businesses.

Susan Cox-Smith

Based in the Netherlands, Susan Cox-Smith helps organizations combine research and storytelling to prepare for the future and make strategic decisions. Her How to Future project helps organizations, especially in healthcare and technology, create teams and structures to succeed in the future.

Gayemarie Brown

With more than 25 years experience, Gayemarie Brown helps worldwide companies use emerging technologies to update their business models for the future. She is an expert and global speaker on digital transformation and disruption, especially AI, robotics and blockchain.

Maria Konovalenko

With a goal of leveraging new technology to make people as healthy as possible, Maria Konovalenko uses her scientific background to look at the future of aging, including AI, cell therapy and regenerative medicine. She hopes to create a future where people can live longer and happier lives thanks to science and technology.

Anne Lise Kjaer

Anne Lise Kjaers organization focuses on business and communications trend forecasting for global corporations. She encourages organizations to look towards the future with trend management and establish mindful leaders to create a more inclusive economy.

Faith Popcorn

A vocal advocate for female empowerment, Faith Popcorn looks to the future as the She-change. She forecasts future trends and consumer patterns for numerous industries and has been called the Nostradamus of Marketing by Fortune Magazine.

Ufuk Tarhan

Based in Turkey, Ufuk Tarhan uses her background in economics and IT to consult companies on creating strong strategies for the future. She is also the curator of Future Day, a day she hopes will be an international public holiday dedicated to the future.

Elina Hiltunen

Elina Hiltunen created a tool to crowdsource organizational futures, especially regarding new technology. She aims to anticipate the future through weak signals and has created tools for individuals and organizations to look towards the future and adapt as the world changes.

Youngsook Park

A prominent figure in South Korea, Youngsook Park focuses her efforts on social justice and human development. She trains students and organizations on the future of housing and interior design and has established programs to prepare her country for social issues of the future.

Cecily Sommers

With a background in medicine and dance, Cecily Sommers looks towards the future of innovation. She runs a think tank that examines the impact of global trends on businesses and society over the next one to five decades.

Alexandra Whittington

Alexandra Whittington teaches Forecasting for Technology Entrepreneurship at the University of Houston. Her focus is on the future of social issues, including families, education and gender roles. She works with corporations and non-profit groups to prepare them for future changes.

Jennifer Gidley

With a background in education and psychology, Jennifer Gidley aims to raise awareness about new thinking that will be required in the future, especially in regards to youth education and sustainable urban development. Her work brings awareness to the growing climate crisis and the future plight of oceans.

Maree Conway

Maree Conway has spent her career consulting on the future of universities and education. She is the founder of an organization that helps professionals in education and government plan for the future by re-framing strategic conversations about the future using foresight.

Catarina Tully

As cofounder of the School of International Futures, Cat Tully advises the U.S. and U.K. governments on the future and national security. She also trains business leaders, lawmakers and activists around the world to prepare for the future. Cat encourages her clients to adopt a long-term view with foresight tools to adapt to change.

Extended List:

Blake Morgan is a customer experience futurist, keynote speaker and the author of the bestselling bookThe Customer Of The Future. Sign up for her weekly newsletterhere.

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50 Leading Female Futurists - Forbes

The site initially addressed widespread backlash to the bot-written articles by assuring readers that a human editor was carefully fact-checking them all prior to publication.

Afterward, though,Futurism found that a substantial number of errors had been slipping into the AI's published work. CNET, a titan of tech journalism that sold for $1.8 billion back in 2008, responded by issuing a formidable correction and slapping a warning on all the bot's prior work, alerting readers that the posts' content was under factual review. Days later, its parent company Red Ventures announced in a series of internal meetings that it was temporarily pausing the AI-generated articles at CNET and various other properties including Bankrate, at least until the storm of negative press died down.

Now, a fresh development may make efforts to spin the program back up even more controversial for the embattled newsroom. In addition to those factual errors, a new Futurism investigation found extensive evidence that the CNET AI's work has demonstrated deep structural and phrasing similarities to articles previously published elsewhere, without giving credit. In other words, it looks like the bot directly plagiarized the work of Red Ventures competitors, as well as human writers at Bankrateand evenCNETitself.

Jeff Schatten, a professor at Washington and Lee University who has been examining the rise of AI-enabled misconduct, reviewed numerous examples of the bot's apparent cribbing that we provided. He found that they "clearly" rose to the level of plagiarism.

We asked Schatten what would happen if a student turned in an essay with a comparable number of similarities to existing documents with no attribution.

"They would be sent to the student-run ethics council and given the repeated nature of the behavior would almost certainly be expelled from the university," he replied.

The bot's misbehavior ranges from verbatim copying to moderate edits to significant rephrasings, all without properly crediting the original. In at least some of its articles, it appears that virtually every sentence maps directly onto something previously published elsewhere.

Take this excerpt, for instance, from arecent article by theCNET AI about overdraft protection:

How to avoid overdraft and NSF fees

Overdraft fees and NSF fees don't have to be a common consequence. There are a few steps you can take to avoid them.

And compare it to this verbiage from a previously published article in Forbes Advisor, a Red Ventures competitor:

How to Avoid Overdraft and NSF Fees

Overdraft and NSF fees need not be the norm. There are several tools at your disposal to avoid them.

Sure, the bot's version altered the capitalization and swapped out a few words for impressively lateral-minded synonyms "the norm" becomes "a common consequence," for instance, and "several tools" becomes "a few steps" along with a few minor changes to the syntax. But apart from those semantic tweaks, the two sentences are nearly identical.

Here's another excerpt from the same article by CNET's AI financial writer:

Sign up for low-balance alerts

You may be able to receive low balance alerts from your bank's mobile app, so you know if your account balance is dropping below a certain threshold.

Now compare it to this section from another previously published article, this one fromThe Balance, another Red Ventures competitor:

Sign Up for Low Balance Alerts

You can sign up for low-balance alerts through most banks to alert you when your account hits a certain amount.

Again, it seems clear that the AI is simply parsing through and making small modifications to obscure the source.

Sometimes the similarities are almost comical in their lack of subtlety. Take the first sentence of this article, also published by CNET's AI:

Gift cards are an easy go-to when buying a present for someone.

And compare it to the first sentence of this previously published Forbesarticle:

Gift cards are an easy-to-please present for just about anyone.

The kicker on that one? Check out the almost imperceptible difference between those two articles' headlines. Here's the CNETAI's title:

Can You Buy a Gift Card With a Credit Card?

And here's what Forbes ran with for a headline:

Can You Buy Gift Cards With a Credit Card?

That's right: the only difference is switching "Gift Cards" to a singular.

Here's another example, from the same AI-generated CNET article about overdraft fees:

What is overdraft protection?

Overdraft protection is an optional feature offered by banks to prevent the rejection of a charge on a checking account with insufficient funds.

Which, it turns out, appears to be a word salad rephrasing of a line from this article on Investopedia, another Red Ventures competitor.

What Is Overdraft Protection?

Overdraft protection is an optional service that prevents the rejection of charges to a bank account... that are in excess of the available funds in the account.

The AI appears to sometimes also borrow language from writers at CNET's sister site Bankratewithout giving credit. For example, look at this line from an article published by CNET's AI back in November:

Becoming an authorized user can help you avoid applying for a card on your own, which is a major benefit if you currently have bad credit or no credit history.

And compare it to this wording, previously published by a Bankrate writer:

Becoming an authorized user also lets you avoid having to apply for a card on your own, which is a major benefit if you currently have bad credit or no credit history at all.

All told, a pattern quickly emerges. Essentially, CNET's AI seems to approach a topic by examining similar articles that have already been published and ripping sentences out of them. As it goes, it makes adjustments sometimes minor, sometimes major to the original sentence's syntax, word choice, and structure. Sometimes it mashes two sentences together, or breaks one apart, or assembles chunks into new Frankensentences. Then it seems to repeat the process until it's cooked up an entire article.

A current Red Ventures employee also reviewed examples of the bot's seemingly lifted work.

"You ever copy your homework off of somebody," they quipped, "but they told you to kind of rephrase it?"

"It poses the question of what kind of institutions do CNET and Bankrate want to be seen as," they continued. "They're just taking these articles and rephrasing a couple of things."

Are you a current or former Red Ventures employee and want to share your thoughts about the company's use of AI? Email us at tips@futurism.com. We can keep you anonymous.

In short, a close examination of the work produced by CNET's AI makes it seem less like a sophisticated text generator and more like an automated plagiarism machine, casually pumping out pilfered work that would get a human journalist fired.

Perhaps, at the end of the day, none of this should be terribly surprising. At their core, the way that machine learning systems work is that you feed in an immense pile of "training data," process it with sophisticated algorithms, and end up with a model that can produce similar work on demand.

Investigators have sometimes found examples of AI plagiarizing its own training data. In 2021, for instance, researchers from Johns Hopkins University, New York University and Microsoft found that text-generating AIs "sometimes copy substantially, in some cases duplicating passages over 1,000 words long from the training set."

As such, the question of exactly how CNET's disastrous AI was trained may end up taking center stage as the drama continues to unfold. At a CNET company meeting late last week, The Vergereported at the time, the outlet's executive vice president of content and audience refused to tell staff many of them acclaimed tech journalists who have written extensively about the rise of machine learning what data had been used to train the AI.

The legality of using data to train an AI without the consent of the people who created that data is currently being tested by several lawsuits against the makers of prominent image generators, and could become a flashpoint in the commercialization of the tech.

"If a student presented the equivalent of what CNET has produced for an assignment in my class, and if they did not cite their sources, then I would definitely count it as plagiarism," said Antony Aumann, a philosophy professor at Northern Michigan University who recently made headlines when he discovered that one of his own students had submitted an essay generated using ChatGPT, after reviewing examples of theCNET AI's similar phrasing to other outlets.

"Now, there is some dispute among academics about exactly what plagiarism is," he continued. "Some scholars consider it a form of stealing; other scholars regard it as a kind of lying. I think of it in the latter way. Plagiarism involves representing something as your own that is in fact not your own. And that appears to be what CNET is doing."

CNET did not respond to examples of the bot's seemingly cribbed writing, nor to questions about this story.

In a sense, the relentless ineptitude of the company's braindead AI probably obfuscates many of the thornier themes we're likely to see emerge as the tech continues to spread into the workplace and information ecosystems.

Schatten, for instance, warned that issues around AI and intellectual property are likely to get more ambiguous and difficult to detect as AI systems continue to improve, or even as publishers start to experiment with more advanced systems that already exist (Red Ventures has declined to say what AI it's using, though the editor-in-chief of CNET has said that it's not ChatGPT.)

"The CNET example is noteworthy because whatever AI they were using was not drawing from the entirety of the internet and carefully coming up with a new mosaic, but rather just lifting more or less word for word from existing stories," Schatten said. "But the more sophisticated AIs of today, and certainly the AIs of the future, will do a better job of hiding the origins of the material."

"And especially once AIs are drawing from the writing of other AIs, which themselves are quoting AI (dark, I know) it might become quite difficult to detect," he added.

In a practical sense, it seems increasingly obvious that CNET and Red Ventures deployed the AI system and started blasting its articles out to the site's colossal audience without ever really scrutinizing its output. It wasn't just that the architects of the program missed obvious factual errors, but that they appear never to have checked whether the system's work might have been poached.

And to be fair, why would they? AsThe Verge reported in a fascinating deep dive last week, the company's primary strategy is to post massive quantities of content, carefully engineered to rank highly in Google, and loaded with lucrative affiliate links.

For Red Ventures, The Verge found, those priorities have transformed the once-venerable CNETinto an "AI-powered SEO money machine."

More on CNET: SEO Spammers Are Absolutely Thrilled Google Isn't Cracking Down on CNET's AI-Generated Articles

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CNET's AI Journalist Appears to Have Committed Extensive Plagiarism

Tin Mok Appointed to Faraday Future's Board of Directors as an Executive Director  Marketscreener.com

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Tin Mok Appointed to Faraday Future's Board of Directors as an Executive Director - Marketscreener.com

Futuristic tech flagship smartphone the HUAWEI Mate50 Pro with ultimate Ultra Aperture XMAGE camera launches in SA  Mail and Guardian

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Futuristic tech flagship smartphone the HUAWEI Mate50 Pro with ultimate Ultra Aperture XMAGE camera launches in SA - Mail and Guardian

Glen Hiemstra is the founder andFuturist Emeritusof Futurist.com.

Glen is dedicated to disseminating information about the future to assist individuals, organizations, and industries in effective strategic planning. An internationally respected expert on future trends, long-range planning and creating the preferred future, Glen has advised professional, business, and governmental organizations for three decades and has served as a technical advisor for futuristic television programs. Audience members for Glens keynote speeches and clients for his long-range planning say things like, Once you hear Glen Hiemstra speak, the future will never look the same.

A writer as well as a speaker and consultant, Glen is the author of Millennial City: How a New Generation Can Save the Future,Turning the Future into Revenue: What Businesses and Individuals Need to Know to Shape Their Future. Previously he co-authoredStrategic Leadership: Achieving Your Preferred Future.

Glen has worked with many leading companies, government agencies and organizations across a wide variety of domains. These include Microsoft, The Home Depot, Boeing, Adobe, Ernst & Young, PaineWebber, ShareBuilder, Ambrosetti (Italy), Club of Amsterdam, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Savannah District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Pacific Ocean Division, Northern Telecom, REI, Weyerhaeuser, Hewlett Packard, Novo Nordisk, U.S./Mexico JWC, APAX Partners, Costa Rica Hotel Association, Atlanta 2060, Tulsa 2025, Idaho Transportation 2030, Michigan DOT 2030, Federal Highway Administration Advanced Research, Eddie Bauer, Procter & Gamble, ACE Hardware, IHOP, John Deere, Weitz Construction, Lexis Nexus, Land O Lakes, GHD Engineering (Australia), SONAE (Portugal), and others.

As a recognized expert in preferred future planning, Glen is a popular keynote speaker who can zero in on emerging trends in economics, demographics, energy, the environment, Internet and communications, science, technology, housing, and transportation. Glen goes beyond simple trend analysis to discuss the opportunities that we all have to shape the preferred future. In his consulting, Glen utilizes tools such as environmental scanning, scenario development, whole systems perspectives, paradigm shifts, and analysis of organizational culture for managing change to assist enterprises to achieve high performance.

A skilled communicator, Glen also offers a variety of informational resources for those interested in exploring the future. Each month visitors from 120 nations come to Futurist.com and the blog for provocative snapshots of emerging ideas, trends, and technologies.

As a media technical advisor Glen has worked on several television productions, including with Steven Bochco Productions (creator of Hill Street Blues and NYPD Blue), among others. He has oft beencited in publicationssuch as The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, US News & World Report, Newsweek, The Futurist, USA Today, Business Week, the Economist, Puget Sound Business Journal, and the Los Angeles Times.

In a first career, Glen was an award-winning educator; he also served as a Visiting Scholar at the Human Interface Technology Lab at the University of Washington, which worked on virtual and augmented reality technology.

Glen was educated at Whitworth College, the University of Oregon, and the University of Washington. He lives in Seattle, Washington.

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Nikolas Badminton | Futurist Speaker | Futurist Keynotes | Futurist.com

David Houle| Special to the Herald-Tribune

As a futurist, my goal is to be directionally accurate in all my forecasts. Long-term trends and dynamics are what guide me. Through the years I have had great accuracy in directions, if not in specific details or timing.

So this column is based on the direction and acceleration of trends and what that might look like in 2023.

The long-term trend to EVs will keep accelerating. 2023 and 2024 will both be years of increasing sales until 2025 when there will be dozens of EV models in a price-competitive marketplace. That is when sales figures become truly significant, rather than just moderate year-over-year growth.

Cable subscriptions will go down and streaming subscriptions will continue to rise. That said, the average number of subscriptions for households will go down as people continue to cut costs for television

Inflation is now starting to trend downward. By late spring 2023, inflation will be down to 3-4%.

The Fed will continue to increase rates in the first quarter of 2023 but at lower increments. By mid-year, they will stop increasing rates.

The Ukraine War will drag on. There will not be a negotiated settlement to the conflict. I think there is a possibility that Putin might be forced to step down by the end of the year, but the opaqueness of the Kremlin is such that we wont know until a coup is over. By the end of the year, it will be clear that tens of billions of dollars will be needed to rebuild Ukraine. It will also become clear by the end of the year that Russia is on a fast track to become a secondary economic power.

The Senate is controlled by the Democrats and the House is controlled by the GOP. This will end up showcasing the perception that the Senate puts forth legislation and the House rejects it. To the degree the GOP does not address their two campaign issues inflation and crime but instead goes down the rabbit hole of irrelevant investigations, they will lower their chances for elective victory in 2024.

The Senate will need to become more centrist if there is to be hope for support in the House. President Bidens deep desire for bi-partisanship will manifest in a good working relationship with Minority Leader McConnell.

Governor DeSantis is the clear front-runner for the 2024 presidential nomination. He will start to build up a campaign effort for a 4th quarter announcement that he is running for president in 2024

Donald Trump will get indicted.

Joe Biden will decide by the end of the year to not run for reelection in 2024.

The residential housing market will enter a national recession. Florida will be less affected than the rest of the country. Sarasota and Manatee counties will be less affected than the rest of the state. But all prices will be down compared to a year ago.

There will be a global recession, but it will be a mild one and will vary greatly around the world. Some countries will truly suffer hard landings and others will most definitely have soft landings. The U.S. will experience a mild slowdown.

The price of oil will continue to drift lower through the course of the year. The average for 2023 will be around $70-$75 for WTI.

Equity markets will largely go sideways in 2023. with continued volatility.

China will continue to have problems. The real estate market is way over-leveraged and overpriced. There could be a million COVID-19 deaths there in the coming months. In addition, large numbers of people under 30 will emigrate to Europe and North America.

After half a decade of democracy in decline around the world, democracy is and will be ascendant throughout the year. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and to a lesser extent Turkey, will all undergo economic and social problems.

The U.K. will continue to suffer through its post-Brexit malaise of inflation, contraction and political disarray.

Crime will increase in many cities across the U.S. This is due in part to the massive changes in the workplace. The vacancy rate in downtown office buildings hit a high of 17% in the third quarter of 2021 and has been consistently around 12.5% since, which is above the historical average.

The work-from-home trend that came from COVID-19 will continue. It is clear that upper management would like employees to come back to the office, at least a few days a week. Corporate leaders seem to want workers to return, and there is a slow movement in that direction. The problem that will need to be addressed, is inflation.

Someone who used to commute five days a week was the same person who left the office at lunchtime for a $10 sandwich or a trip to a salad bar will now be confronted by a $15 price tag at the minimum.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written 13 books and is futurist in residence at Ringling College of Art andDesign. His websites aredavidhoule.comandthe2020sdecade.com. Email him at david@davidhoule.com.

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2023 The Year Ahead | The Futurist

Skoda Enyaq iV 80x: A futuristic, modern EV with a range of 513 km, all you need to know about this SUV  DNP INDIA

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Skoda Enyaq iV 80x: A futuristic, modern EV with a range of 513 km, all you need to know about this SUV - DNP INDIA

Early-20th-century Italian architectural style

Futurist architecture is an early-20th century form of architecture born in Italy, characterized by long dynamic lines, suggesting speed, motion, urgency and lyricism: it was a part of Futurism, an artistic movement founded by the poet Filippo Tommaso Marinetti, who produced its first manifesto, the Manifesto of Futurism, in 1909. The movement attracted not only poets, musicians, and artists (such as Umberto Boccioni, Giacomo Balla, Fortunato Depero, and Enrico Prampolini) but also a number of architects. A cult of the Machine Age and even a glorification of war and violence were among the themes of the Futurists - several prominent futurists were killed after volunteering to fight in World War I. The latter group included the architect Antonio Sant'Elia, who, though building little, translated the futurist vision into an urban form.[1]

In 1912, three years after Marinetti's Futurist Manifesto, Antonio Sant'Elia and Mario Chiattone take part to the Nuove Tendenze[3] exhibition in Milano. In 1914 the group presented their first exposition with a "Message" by Sant'Elia, that later, with the contribution of Filippo Tommaso Marinetti, became the Manifesto dellArchitettura Futurista ("Manifesto of Futurist Architecture").[2] Boccioni unofficially worked on a similar manifesto, but Marinetti preferred Sant'Elia's paper.

Later in 1920, another manifesto was written by Virgilio Marchi, Manifesto dellArchitettura FuturistaDinamica (Manifesto of Dynamic Instinctive Dramatic Futurist Architecture).[2] Ottorino Aloisio worked in the style established by Marchi, one example being his Casa del Fascio in Asti.

Another futurist manifesto related to architecture is the Manifesto dell'Arte Sacra Futurista ("Manifesto of Sacred Futurist Art") by Fillia (Luigi Colombo)[2] and Filippo Tommaso Marinetti, published in 1931. On 27 January 1934 it was the turn of the Manifesto of Aerial Architecture by Marinetti, Angiolo Mazzoni and Mino Somenzi.[2] Mazzoni had publicly adhered to futurism only the year before. In this paper the Lingotto factory by Giacomo Matt-Trucco is defined as the first Futurist constructive invention.[2] Mazzoni himself in those years worked on a building considered today a masterpiece[4] of futurist architecture, like the Heating plant and Main controls cabin at Santa Maria Novella railway station, in Florence.

The Art Deco style of architecture with its streamlined forms was regarded as futuristic when it was in style in the 1920s and 1930s. The original name for both early and late Art Deco was Art Moderne the name "Art Deco" did not come into use until 1968 when the term was invented in a book by Bevis Hillier. The Chrysler Building is a notable example of Art Deco futurist architecture.

After World War II, Futurism was considerably weakened and redefined itself thanks to the enthusiasm towards the Space Age, the Atomic Age, the car culture, and the wide use of plastic. For example, this trend is found in the architecture of Googies in the 1950s in California. Futurism in this case is not a style, but a rather free and uninhibited architectural approach, which is why it was reinterpreted and transformed by generations of architects the following decades, but in general it includes amazing shapes with dynamic lines and sharp contrasts, and the use of technologically advanced materials.

Pioneered from late 1960s and early 1970s by Finnish architects Eero Saarinen;[5][6] and Alvar Aalto,[7] American architect Adrian Wilson[8] and Charles Luckman;[9][10] Danish architects Henning Larsen[11] and Jrn Utzon;[12] the architectural movement was later named Neo-Futurism by French architect Denis Laming. He designed all of the buildings in Futuroscope, whose Kinemax is the flagship building.[13] In the early 21st century, Neo-Futurism has been relaunched by innovation designer Vito Di Bari with his vision of "cross-pollination of art and cutting edge technology for a better world" applied to the project of the city of Milan at the time of the Universal Expo 2015.[14][citation needed][promotion?]In popular literature, the term futuristic is often used without much precision to describe an architecture that would have the appearance of the space age as described in works of science fiction or as drawn in science fiction comic strips or comic books. Today it is sometimes confused with blob architecture or high-tech architecture. The routine use of the term futurism although influenced by Antonio Sant'Elia's vision of Futurist architecture must be well differentiated from the values and political implications of the Futurist movement of the years 19101920. The futurist architecture created since 1960 may be termed Neo-Futurism, and is also referred as Post Modern Futurism or Neo-Futuristic architecture.

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Futurist architecture - Wikipedia

This week, UKs government set out plans to end the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2040 so what else will we see in 23 years time?

Here, with the help of Europes top futurist Ray Hammond, we create a picture of how the world might look in the post-petrol age.

We will all wear a huge range of sensors that will constantly monitor things such as blood pressure, blood sugar and blood oxygen level.

Longevity will rise, with many living well beyond 100.

Children born in 2040 will have a more or less indefinite life. With gene therapy, stem cell and nano-scale medicine, barring an accident or fatal disease, we may live for ever and look much younger. With exoskeletons artificial, externally-worn support structures the elderly will stay mobile for longer. Now they are bulky and rigid but they will be soft and comfy.

People will fall in love with robot partners, which will impact relationships.

As it is we have a habit of seeing human characteristics in inanimate objects and with robots growing more advanced, it is inevitable that some people will couple up with them.

Weddings will become rarer and promiscuity will go off the scale as social attitudes get more relaxed.

On average, women today have nine sexual partners in their lifetime and men have 11 expect that to rise to 100 for women and 200 for men.

Most cars will be driving themselves, with motorways and roads having self-driving lanes.

Driverless traffic could travel in convoys, forming road trains and allowing vehicles to drive much closer together, freeing up motorway space.

The only place where you could experience being in control of a car yourself would be a licensed race track.

Ahead of the ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars in 2040, we can expect scrappage schemes during the 2030s which will phase them out. Our roads will look and sound very different.

As for air travel, there will not be huge changes. The dawn of electric and self-flying planes is possible but they will still be a small minority.

We will see hyper-loops transport tubes through which passenger pods can travel at up to 700 mph.

As the worlds population booms from the present seven billion to more than nine billion, we will not be able to farm meat as we have done up to now.

There wont be enough space for all the animals we would need plus their methane emissions could cause unsustainable environmental damage.

Instead, we will see artificial tissue meat grown in factories, without the need for a living animal.

Burgers have already been produced and eaten in a lab and by 2040 up to 40 percent of meat will be artificial or from substitutes such as plants. It will be engineered to look, taste and smell like the real thing.

Insects will also be a staple in products resembling their meat versions, such as sausages or burgers. They are protein-rich, cheaper and greener.

And with most people living in cities, crops may be grown on vertical farms up the sides of skyscrapers.

Our smartphones will have more or less disappeared, replaced by control centers which we will wear in a series of devices around our body.

For example, we will wear smart contact lenses, with texts floating in front of our eyes and earrings that send messages from a virtual assistant into our ears.

We wont look as if we are wearing anything extra but it will be as if we are looking through a smartphone at the real world, albeit one more powerful than anything we know today.

Our social networks will also become integral to the real world. We may see a stranger in the street and, using facial recognition software linked to our control centers, will instantly know their name and be able to access their profile.

As a result, privacy will be a hot topic.

We will have to face the question of whether machines will be our slaves or our masters.

Computers will be as good at problem-solving as humans, with the prospect of soon surpassing us.

Then the question will be whether we let them take control or try to regulate and modify artificial intelligence. Or genetically modify humans so we can compete with machines.

Our decisions could have profound effects on world order. If the West chooses to regulate its machines, it could be at a disadvantage compared to countries that allow computers to develop unchecked.

Today people are glued to phones and iPads but to imagine life in 2040, magnify that by 100.

We will spend most of our time in virtual worlds, whether at work or at leisure. Instead of looking at a device, we will experience this as if it were real. It wont even seem artificial. The novelty will be leaving the virtual world to meet humans in real life, an activity that will become rarer.

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A futurist tells us what life will probably look like in 2040