Category Archives: Futurist

Published: Monday, December 22, 2014 at 1:00 a.m. Last Modified: Saturday, December 20, 2014 at 4:38 p.m.

WE MAY WELL HAVE ENTERED a new era of lower energy costs.

This coincides with having entered the second stage of the global economy I wrote about in my October column.

Ever since I started writing and speaking about the future back in 2006, I have focused a lot on energy. The reason is simple and obvious: The energy sources, models, structures and infrastructures of the 19th and 20th century will have to change in the 21st century. So I have paid a good bit of attention to new forms of energy, new ways to distribute energy and emerging technologies, and also looked deeply into the landscape of global energy.

In fact, one of the things that put me on the map as a credible futurist was that in 2006, when oil was around $50 a barrel, I suggested that oil might well cross $125 a barrel in 2008. I fondly remember going on a syndicated business TV program in the second half of 2007 to talk about the price of oil. There was me, the futurist, and some oil analyst. The reporter asked me what I thought the price of oil might be in a year (at the time it was around $55 a barrel), I answered that it would very likely be above $100 in 2008. With ridicule dripping from her voice, the reporter then said something like "Well, we have heard from a futurist, now let's get the facts from an oil analyst" who then said oil would range between $50 and $60 a barrel for the next few years. You may remember that the price of oil topped out in 2008 at $147 a barrel. Ah, sweet victory!

In the last two to three years, I have been correct in forecasting that the price of oil would largely stay in the $90-$120 per barrel range. Coming into 2014, I thought there might be some softness due to several dynamics and suggested that it might well drop into the low $80s. Well, I was right that the price would soften this year, but was I wrong on how soft! As of this writing, West Texas Intermediate oil is around $56 and Brent crude is $61.

The dynamics for this price collapse have been widely reported: the technological revolution of fracking in the U.S., the softening demand in China and the commitment of Saudi Arabia to keep market share within the group of oil exporting nations and to put stress on the U.S. oil industry, which has moved the U.S. the closest it has ever been to energy independence.

The price will go up over the next year. In the meantime, low prices will cause geo-political havoc, because many of the oil-exporting countries, such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, have break-even production levels well above $80.

That is for another column. This column is about more than oil; it is about the real possibility that we have entered into a decade-long era of generally lower energy costs. Several simultaneous developments point to this. So, in addition to lower oil prices, here are some dynamics that should lower energy costs in the years ahead:

Incredible efficiencies in the internal combustion engine, dramatically increasing the miles that cars can travel per gallon. In 2000, it would have been almost unimaginable that one could choose from dozens of cars that average more than 30 mpg.

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New era of cheaper energy ... and it's not just oil prices

Define futurist: Pronunciation, Definitions, and Examples for futurist
Pronunciation, Definitions, and Examples for futurist.

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Top 10 Science Fiction Movies About the Future of Medicine - The Medical Futurist
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Neal Stephenson, the author of science fiction classics likeSnow Crash and Cryptonomicon, has joined the augmented reality startup Magic Leap as itsChief Futurist. A press release from Magic Leap announces the appointment.

In his first blog post for the company, Stephenson elaborates on what Magic Leaps technology does, and what he brings to the table. Magic Leap is mustering an arsenal of techniquessome tried and true, others unbelievably advancedto produce a synthesized light field that falls upon the retina in the same way as light reflected from real objects in your environment. Depth perception, in this system, isnt just a trick played on the brain by showing it two slightly different images.

Im fascinated by the science,but not qualified to work on it, he says. Where I hope I can be of use is thinking about what to do with this tech once it is available to the general public.

Stephenson highlights the potential for Magic Leaps technology to revolutionize gaming. It feels like the right time to give those people a new medium: one in which three-dimensionality is a reality and not just an illusion laboriously cooked up by your brain, and in which its possible to get up off the couch and movenot only around your living room, but wherever on the face of the earth the story might take you. Making such games is not going to be a matter of porting existing ones to the new system. Its going to mean redefining the medium from the ground up.

Oculus Rift makes screens more immersive, but ultimately remains limited to the two-dimensional plane supplemented by optical trickery. Magic Leaps technology, as Stephenson describes it, purports to interface more directly with the way our eyes works to create a natural and immersive way to interact with virtual objects and spaces.

Related:En garde! Clang goes medieval with realistic sword controllers

Stephensons idea-saturated work has dealt with subjects like mathematics, cryptography, currency, the history of science, and philosophy, but he holds particular sway over VRenthusiasts for his revolutionary conceptualization of online virtual reality in his 1992 cyberpunk classic,Snow Crash. In thatseminalwork of near-future science fiction, the internet is represented as the Metaverse, arichly-realized, shared VR environment. Notably, Stephenson popularizedthe modern use of the word avatar in the book, co-opting the term from the Sanskrit word for a deitys earthly representation.

The authors last foray into gaming wasClang, a Kickstarted sword-fighting game under development by his Subotai Corporation. Subotai was developing motion controls to represent sword-fighting more accurately than any game previously had. That project was put on indefinite hold in September.

Magic Leap was founded in 2011 and has been gradually drawing the interest of investors from both Silicon Valley and the entertainment industry. The companymadeheadlinesin October for generating$542 million in funds from a group of investors led by Google.

CEO and founder Rony Abovitz has chosen to foregovirtual reality and augmented reality in favor of cinematic reality. Those older terms, he explained, are associated with things that didnt necessarily deliver on a promise or live up to expectations. Googles investment might point toward the possibility of Magic Leapss technology being integrated into Google Glass at some point in the future.

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Author Neal Stephenson joins AR upstart Magic Leap as Chief Futurist

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In a blog post, Neal Stephenson says it's time that people develop a new medium, "one in which three-dimensionality is a reality and not just an illusion laboriously cooked up by your brain." Madeleine Ball/NPR hide caption

In a blog post, Neal Stephenson says it's time that people develop a new medium, "one in which three-dimensionality is a reality and not just an illusion laboriously cooked up by your brain."

It seems we have a new case of life following art. Over two decades ago, in his seminal novel Snow Crash, science fiction author Neal Stephenson imagined a virtual world he called a "metaverse," a collective virtual reality that brought its users together in a single shared space. Now, Stephenson is trying his hand at helping sculpt another kind of alternate realitythis time not in print, but in life at large.

Stephenson announced that he will be joining the startup Magic Leap as the company's "chief futurist." While the company itself remains something of a mystery, the Wall Street Journal reports that "the startup is developing its own eyeglasses-like device, different from Google Glass, designed to project computer-generated images over a real-life setting." In other words, the technology is said to try to blend seamlessly what's real with what's virtualnot unlike some of the technologies in Stephenson's book.

Though the company has yet to produce anything, Google and several other tech titans have been big backers of the project, to the tune of $542 million in investments.

In a blog post for Magic Leap, Stephenson said his role will not be concerned with business or science, so much as with how to apply the product once it's ready.

"I'm fascinated by the science, but not qualified to work on it. Where I hope I can be of use is in thinking about what to do with this tech once it is available to the general public," Stephenson wrote. "'Chief Futurist' runs the risk of being a disembodied brain on a stick. I took the job on the understanding that I would have the opportunity to get a few things done."

The Punch and the Publisher: Former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura has turned his sights on the publisher of the book American Sniper. According to the StarTribune, Ventura has filed a lawsuit against HarperCollins for alleged defamation of character.

In his best-selling memoir, the late Navy SEAL Chris Kyle told of a scuffle he had with Ventura, whom he identified by the name "Scruff Face" in the text. Kyle wrote that he had punched Scruff Face over disparaging comments the man had made about the United States and the Navy SEALS. After the book's publication, Kyle explained that Scruff Face and Ventura, who is also a Navy veteran, were one and the same.

For his part, Ventura disputes this claim, saying the incident actually never happened. And he's already won a $1.8 million lawsuit against Kyle's estate over the same story.

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Book News: Sci-Fi Writer Signs On As 'Chief Futurist' For Secretive Startup

Stephenson will help Magic Leap figure out "what to do with this tech once it is available to the general public."

Hot off an infusion of cash from Google, augmented reality startup Magic Leap has snagged another high-powered partner.

Science-fiction writer and game designer Neal Stephenson (pictured) has agreed to join the Fort Lauderdale-based firm as "Chief Futurist."

Announcing his new title in a blog post, Stephenson said he was intrigued by Magic Leapfrom what the company had already achieved ("I saw something on that optic table I had never seen before," he teased) to what it is capable of doing.

"Magic Leap is mustering an arsenal of techniquessome tried and true, others unbelievably advancedto produce a synthesized light field that falls upon the retina in the same way as light reflected from real objects in your environment," Stephenson explained.

Known for novels like 1992's Snow Crash, the author and sci-fi fan is familiar with virtual reality and augmented realityboth technologies which he expected to be widespread by the end of the 20th century.

"In practice, it has taken longer than just about anyone expected to get that kind of tech consumer-ready," he said. "The devil has turned out to be in the details of satisfying the amazingly finicky human visual system."

The Facebook-owned Oculus VR has helped to reinvigorate public interest in virtual reality, thanks to its Rift headset (slideshow above). But augmented reality remains a mystery to most peoplea detail Magic Leap hopes to change.

Founded in 2011, the secretive company in October earned $542 million in funding from tech giants like Google and Qualcomm. But details about its "Cinematic Reality" tech have yet to be revealed.

"I'm fascinated by the science, but not qualified to work on it," Stephenson admitted. "Where I hope I can be of use is in thinking about what to do with this tech once it is available to the general public. I took the job on the understanding that I would have the opportunity to get a few things done."

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Neal Stephenson Named 'Chief Futurist' at Magic Leap