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Category Archives: Futurist
Disaster Girl’s – The Disaster Caster: Future Maps
Posted: December 8, 2016 at 5:06 pm
These are the Futurists Maps of the World. I have scoured much of the internet for quite some time now compiling these maps, and I know they are the favorite topic of my readers. This may not be all of them, but from what I found while searching the internet, this is the most you will find in one place- neatly grouped together. I hope you guys enjoy this, and check back in the future because if I find more I will add them!
Also, this cool tool provided by Alex Tingle is awesome! An interactive flood map, based on where you are, that allows you to look at what the land around you would look like with a 60 meter sea level rise! CLICK HERE FOR THE INTERACTIVE FLOOD MAP
Two questions came to mind when putting this together.. 1. Why are the majority of them just the USA? Is that a coincidence? ..and.. 2. Why do they all look so eerily similar?
*I do not own any of these images. *Please comment if you have more information about origins/back stories/unidentified map clarifications, etc!
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Futurist – Wikipedia
Posted: October 23, 2016 at 4:18 am
Futurists or futurologists are scientists and social scientists whose specialty is futurology or the attempt to systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on Earth in general.
The term "futurist" most commonly refers to people such as authors, consultants, organizational leaders and others who engage in interdisciplinary and systems thinking to advise private and public organizations on such matters as diverse global trends, possible scenarios, emerging market opportunities and risk management. Futurist is not in the sense of the art movement futurism.
The Oxford English Dictionary identifies the earliest use of the term futurism in English as 1842, to refer, in a theological context, to the Christian eschatological tendency of that time. The next recorded use is the label adopted by the Italian and Russian futurists, the artistic, literary and political movements of the 1920s and 1930s which sought to reject the past and fervently embrace speed, technology and, often violent, change..
Visionary writers such as Jules Verne, Edward Bellamy, and H.G.Wells were not in their day characterized as futurists. The term futurology in its contemporary sense was first coined in the mid1940s by the German Professor Ossip K. Flechtheim, who proposed a new science of probability. Flechtheim argued that even if systematic forecasting did no more than unveil the subset of statistically highly probable processes of change and charted their advance, it would still be of crucial social value.[1]
In the mid1940s the first professional "futurist" consulting institutions like RAND and SRI began to engage in long-range planning, systematic trend watching, scenario development, and visioning, at first under World WarII military and government contract and, beginning in the 1950s, for private institutions and corporations. The period from the late 1940s to the mid1960s laid the conceptual and methodological foundations of the modern futures studies field. Bertrand de Jouvenel's The Art of Conjecture in 1963 and Dennis Gabor's Inventing the Future in 1964 are considered key early works, and the first U.S.university course devoted entirely to the future was taught by the late Alvin Toffler at the The New School in 1966.[2]
More generally, the label includes such disparate lay, professional, and academic groups as visionaries, foresight consultants, corporate strategists, policy analysts, cultural critics, planners, marketers, forecasters, prediction market developers, roadmappers, operations researchers, investment managers, actuaries, and other risk analyzers, and future-oriented individuals educated in every academic discipline, including anthropology, complexity studies, computer science, economics, engineering, Urban design, evolutionary biology, history, management, mathematics, philosophy, physical sciences, political science, psychology, sociology, systems theory, technology studies, and other disciplines.
"Futures studies"sometimes referred to as futurology, futures research, and foresightcan be summarized as being concerned with "three P's and a W", i.e. "possible, probable, and preferable" futures, plus "wildcards", which are low-probability, high-impact events, should they occur. Even with high-profile, probable events, such as the fall of telecommunications costs, the growth of the internet, or the aging demographics of particular countries, there is often significant uncertainty in the rate or continuation of a trend. Thus a key part of futures analysis is the managing of uncertainty and risk.[3]
Not all futurists engage in the practice of futurology as generally defined. Pre-conventional futurists (see below) would generally not. And while religious futurists, astrologers, occultists, New Age divinists, etc. use methodologies that include study, none of their personal revelation or belief-based work would fall within a consensus definition of futurology as used in academics or by futures studies professionals.
Several authors have become recognized as futurists. They research trends, particularly in technology, and write their observations, conclusions, and predictions. In earlier eras, many futurists were at academic institutions. John McHale, author of The Future of the Future, published a 'Futures Directory', and directed a think tank called The Centre For Integrative Studies at a university. Futurists have started consulting groups or earn money as speakers, with examples including Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and Patrick Dixon. Frank Feather is a business speaker that presents himself as a pragmatic futurist. Some futurists have commonalities with science fiction, and some science-fiction writers, such as Arthur C. Clarke, are known as futurists.[citation needed] In the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula K. Le Guin distinguished futurists from novelists, writing of the study as the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists. In her words, "a novelist's business is lying".
A survey of 108 futurists[4] found the following shared assumptions:
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Futurist
Posted: September 3, 2016 at 11:30 pm
FUTURIST has emerged as one of the foremost and leading vendor for providing IT & Telecom services &solutions to mission critical industries from Pakistan and planning to expand across the world; This platforms supposed to accomplish accomplice in your road to success by starting offering professional service in the field of networking and communication.By adopting the role of trusted partner we respond to needs with integrity and with a high degree of professionalism, whilst recognizing the need for absolute discretion.
FUTURIST is working with public and private setups in the field of planning, engineering and implementation of IT & Telecom networks along-with allied infrastructures by filling the gap of professionalism, honesty, dedication & commitment. We have earned the respect from customers by offering cost effective solution while keeping the best quality and truly fulfilling commitment beyond the customer expectations.
FUTURIST has initially opened many fronts in term of product supplies and services ranging fiber optic, Test & Measurement Instruments, Metro/Access Network Solution, IP based networking Solutions, IP based Micro-wave solutions, Security & Surveillance, Telecom AC/DC Power Solutions and Green Energy Solution.
An optical time domain reflectometer (OTDR) is a precision instrument used to locate events or faults along a fiber link, typically within an optical communications network. The OTDR launches a series of high speed optical pulses into the fiber to
The S178A is fast and durable, it continues the FITEL tradition of quality and excellence by deliveringprecise and accurate splices even under rigorous field conditions. The S178A is equipped with a core alignment system that can complete a splice in
Keeping with the current trend of full integration in the migration of IP and broadband, OPNET Technologies presents ULC-1000AN MSAN, Multi-Services Access Gateway. It can be configured to deploy a wide range of narrowband and broadband voice and data applications,
The AQ1300 series is a compact and lightweight Ethernet tester that is designed to improve both work efficiency and quality at the same time, with function optimized for the network path testing and maintenance of Ethernet networks up to 1G
AN-XX isAeonNs Digital video fiber optical multiplexerfamily(or called Digital Video Optical Modem/Converter, CCTV/CATV transmitter and receiver) has over 20 models of products.Ittransmission1,2,4,8,16,32,64 channel uncompressed digital video, 1,2,4channel Hi-Fi stereo audio, 1~8 channelRS232/RS422/RS485 data over one single fiber cable. Provide one
FUTURISTFiber optic transmission systemsare frequently used in CCTV installations for transmittingCCTV video over fiber, PTZ camera control data, access control communications, intercom communications, and many other purposes. Main advantage of using fiber optic communications is longer transmission distances when compared
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The Futurist Magazine – World Future Society
Posted: at 11:30 pm
**THE FUTURIST Magazine will be transforming into a new kind of digital publication. Stay tuned!**
Click here to view an archive of past issues (member sign in required).
THE FUTURIST was a bimonthly magazine published from 1967 - Summer 2015 by the World Future Society. It was also available on newsstands coast to coast in the United States. The focus of THE FUTURIST was innovation, creative thinking, and emerging trends in the social, economic, and technological areas.
Among the many influential futurists and experts who contributed to THE FUTURIST include: Gene Roddenberry, Al Gore, Newt Gingrich, Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Buckminster Fuller, Frederik Pohl, Isaac Asimov, Vaclav Havel, Margaret Mead, Robert McNamara, B.F Skinner, Nicholas Negroponte, Arthur C. Clarke, Douglas Rushkoff, David Walker, Glenn T. Seaborg, Clay Shirky, and Robert James Woolsey.
THE FUTURIST magazines print edition was one of the world's most popular publications about the future. THE FUTURIST featured the writing of inventor Ray Kurzweil, management experts Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, technology "maverick" Kevin Kelly, marketing guru Seth Godin, nature writer Richard Louv, futurist Paul Saffo, science fiction authors David Brin and Brenda Cooper, Internet-freedom scholar Evgeny Morozov, environmentalist and MacAuthur Fellow Lester Brown, nanotechnology pioneer K. Eric Drexler and roboticist and TED fellow Rodney Brooks among many other thought leaders.
THE FUTURIST was nominated for an Utne Independent Press Award for Best Science and Technology Coverage.
Content distribution channels have fundamentally evolved over the last two decades. As futurists, we have long been talking about the disruptions to traditional industries as a result of digital technology. The publishing industry is no different. Today, print publications are high-cost, low-return efforts compared to digital publication. And today, there is no shortage of exceptional future-focused content circulating online from dozens of reputable sources. We want our readership to have access to the best content, whether that content is created in-house or by the future-minded thinkers outside of our built-in network. As a result, we will no longer be publishing and distributing a physical magazine. The Futurist will be transforming into a new kind of digital publication: an aggregator of curated and future-focused online content, combined with news and analysis from members who have blog articles and op-eds to contribute. The Futurist has been the World Future Society's trademark content offering for 50 years, and we expect it will be for another 50 years
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Doug Malewicki’s patented inventions and engineering …
Posted: August 23, 2016 at 9:17 am
To see pictures from each of the races listed below - Click HERE
7,000+ crazy runners (Geezer Doug proudly included, of course!)
Article and photos by columnist David Whiting: OC Register ___________________ Doug has enjoyed running Big Baz's Winter Trail Run Series since 1998! 15 years worth! http://www.BigBazTrailRaces.com
"Sportsman of the Year"
Check out the "DOUGumentary" QuickTime Movie Trailer at: http://www.3launch.com
Gore-Tex TRANSROCKIES http://www.Transrockies.com (Doug's Facebook page has 100's of photos from TransRockies) The 2012 TransRockies 6 day endurance race covered a total of 125 miles of trails between 8,000' and 12,538' elevations and had 21,000' of total ascents!
Team California Old Goats Doug (age 73) and ultra running legend Gordy Ainsleigh (age 64) - also ran the2011 six day TransRockies endurance trail race together.
2012 was Doug's 5th year in a row running the 6 day TransRockies race. Gordy & Dous are already signed up for the 2014 TransRockies! Doug's 6th year.
August 14, 2012 Team California Old Goats Gordy & Doug at the top of HOPE PASS - 12,538' elevation.
Hah! 6 pack abs compliments of PHOTOSHOP & Mark Kelly, PhD.
March 2013: I hit 74 on March 28, 2012. To celebrate my 74th birthdayI ran a bit more than 74 miles of my favorite trails in 4 days (74.13 miles according to my Garmin GPS).
I also did 70@70 in 3 days w/19,000' of climbs four years ago; 71@71 in 6 days; 72@72 in 5 days & 73@73 in 4 days
Doug & Yoda birthday present w/grand daughter Sierra & daughter Michelle (Do or do NOT.. There is no TRY!)
SkyTran - Personal MagLev Transportation
Malewicki has been an invited keynote speaker on SkyTran and our new Wind Turbine retrofit business (based on our SkyTran technology and patents) to Dubai (April 2010 with Dr. Greg Smedley CEO/founder of One-Cycle-Control, Inc.) and to Macau, China (July 2011). Details on these and several local presentations in California HERE
The photo on the left is Doug pointing to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. It is the world's tallest building at 2,716.5'. That is just over 1/2 mile up! http://www.burjkhalifa.ae
In Macau & Beijing, China
The interview is mostly about my SkyTran invention, but also talks about the advanced Wind Turbine work we are doing and even the low cost electric first stage boosters for Micro-satellite launches. Some of that was discussed in the IEEE paper that you can read below.
My SkyTran invention was featured on the cover of he July 2008 issue of Popular Science (or their artist's version of what THEY think our pods should look like). "GREEN MEGALOPOLIS - An eco-savvy blueprint for tomorrow's megacity points the way to fresh air, clean water and traffic that never jams."
Starting on page 49, five more pages have our MagLev SkyTran in the future city art done by a second artist. Includes a nice paragraph that mentions our company UniModal LLC. Love their online animation at: http://www.popsci.com/futurecity/plan.html (SkyTran is the 4th- click on their FLASH animation).
Check out: http://www.SkyTran.us
The key to this solid state, personalized MagLev systems capacity performance falls out of math and physics analysis. SkyTran will greatly reduce energy used in the transportation of people; eliminate the pollution associated with commuting; greatly enhance safety of personal travel and reduce travel costs.
The California Commuter - 157 MPG at freeway speeds
The California Commuter PLANS & TECHNICAL BOOKLET are also available as electronical PDF's. (Faster, cheaper & ZERO shipping costs!)
157.192 MPG
156.53 MPG
The improved eCC will have 25% less aerodynamic drag and will obtain 400 MPGe at a steady 65 MPH.
IMAGINE a penny per mile!
Robosaurus - the FIRE BREATHING monster robot
ROBOSAURUS THE FIRE BREATHING, CAR EATING, ELECTROHYDROMECHANICAL, 40 foot tall, 58,000 pound, TRANSFORMING MONSTER ENTERTAINMENT ROBOT. GOING ONCE... GOING TWICE... GONE! On January 19, 2008 after 18 years of operation, Robosaurus was sold at the famed Barrett-Jackson Auction in Scottsdale, Arizona . MORE Two of Dougs USA Patents are for his Robosaurus invention. He founded Monster Robots, Inc. and was involved in finding all investors and product sponsors. Doug did all the structural design and engineering (loads determinations, weights and stress analysis). Along with all the electronic, hydraulic and control system packaging and functional testing. The creature, which was built in 1.5 years, has been doing shows since 1990. The most recent NDT (non-destructive-testing) inspection of all welded joints was performed at 250,000 miles and showed no weld fatigue degradation.
One man sitting up in the creatures cranium controls Robosaurus. Doug had to develop an innovative wearable control system to enable a single pilot to simultaneously control 18 proportional hydraulic motions. Each hydraulic valve is controlled by a P-Q Controls Inc. of Bristol, Connecticut computer valve board that converts the simple on-off electrical switch signals given by the pilot in the head into proper proportional fluid flow rates to the various hydraulic cylinders and pumps.
Much of the Robosaurus structural design involved tradeoffs to enable transformation to a legal trailer for hauling the 58,000-pound, fire breathing, beast from show to show. Robosaurus meets highway size and weight requirements for all 50 States.
FLYING and DARPA FLYING MACHINES
UMAAVs (Unmanned Morphing Aerial Attack Vehicles)a conceptual development contract for DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Project Agency).
Rather than just doing a extensive theoretical aerodynamic and structural analysis for his innovative designs,Doug's company AeroVisions, Inc. built and flew Radio Control modelsto demonstrate his various morphing concepts.
July 2005, Doug was the plenary speaker for the DARPA Morphing Aircraft Structures Conference in San Diego.After sensing & confirming the bad guys, morphing UAVs of the future will be able to transform and divedownat Mach 0.9 and pull 5 g maneuvers to take out targets. Will save calling in the F-16 jet jocks and waiting 20 minutes for them to arrive. A computer generated movie of a typical mission of Dougs favorite proposed UMAAV, aptly named THE DROID OF DEATH, can be seen at the above UMAAV link.
DAREDEVIL Engineering Projects
NOTICE: April 18, 2014 AeroVisions, LLC and the Big Ed (Beckley Media LLC) have mutually terminated the relationship to build a rocket powered motorcycle system for Big Ed to jump the Snake River Canyon. We are no longer involved in engineering or developing his jump bike system. There were numerous reasons we could not participate:
1) AeroVisions negotiating with Beckley Media's attorney for months without reaching a fair agreement.
2) AeroVisions agreed to warrantee the jump bike & jump system. Beckley wanted us to warrant the rider as well.
3) In April, Beckley insisted on changing the engineering funding source to a new 3rd party. Negotiating with that party's attorney would have just added more delay.
4) AeroVisions constantly expressed urgency to start engineering, since time was rapidly evaporating to complete the project with confidence by September 7, 2014. We needed adequate time to design, engineer, fabricate and fully test all systems plus train the pilot to establish a high level of confidence to insure a 99.5% probability of success for the rider. Rushing and only achieving 70% probability of success by starting at this late date to us was unacceptable.
5) Extending the jump date to July 4th, 2015 was also unacceptable to Beckley Media.
6) The AeroVisions proposed jump bike would be a genuine drivable motorcycle that could "jump" over 1/2 mile in distance and land on its wheels on the other side. It would NOT be a non-road worthy, non-motorcycle, rocket powered missile that would slide up a launch rail like a child's model rocket toy.
All we can say is best of luck to Big Ed in "gettin' er done" safely this September.
Rest in Peace Oct 17,1938 - Nov 30, 2007.
Doug Malewicki was the designer and engineer of Evel Knievel's steam rocket powered SkyCycle X-1 canyon jumping motorcycle. Doug is shown here shaking hands with Evel at the machine's unveiling at the Twin Falls, Idaho Snake River canyon jump site on May 6, 1972. On the left is rocket pioneer, Robert Truax who invented and holds the patents on Steam Rocket engines. Wearing sunglasses is Facundo Campoy, one of Truax's partners.
Niagara Falls Aerospace Museum Rocket Belt Conference PHOTOS Click HERE to see the online PBS interviews & flight videos from the conference
NUCLEAR WAR - Doug's 1965 Game Invention
As time passed, the weapons used in the basic game became obsolete, so expansion sets with newer futuristic weapons were created:
1965 - The original Nuclear War 1982 - Nuclear Escalation 1992 Nuclear Proliferation 1996 Nuclear War Booster Packs 2004 Weapons of Mass Destruction (YES - that is THE DROID OF DEATH on the cover of the newest game!)
Doug and his original Nuclear War game were inducted into the Adventure Game Hall of Fame in 1998. 2015 will be the 50th Anniversary of Nuclear War! F. B. I. will celebrate with a NEW SPECIAL EDITION!
Droid phone screen shot Still ticking after 48 years! The RadioAPPtive Fallout Spinner is now available in the DROID & iPhone marketplaces. (SEARCH: Nuclear War Spinner)
You use the touch screen to swipe the arrow to get it moving. As it spins, it makes Geiger Counter ticking sounds. When it stops you will hear the results. Hilarious voiceover comments in an over-the-top Russkie accent by actress Claudia Christian, well known for her TV character - Commander Ivanova of the SciFi hit series Babylon 5. [Special thanks to Rick Roszko, Rick Loomis & Steve Johnson]
"LOST WORLDS" COMBAT FANTASY BOOKS
Michelle has taken up trail running like her dad & has evolved into a top ranked ultra distance speedster. Over the years Michelle set numerous female course records for 50K and 50 mile race distances - including six as overall winner where she "chicked" all the men!
She won first female & fourth overall at the Javelina Jundred 100 mile trail race in Arizona in a 19:42 time. She was 4 hours ahead of the second place female! Pictures
ORDER PAGE Hard to find Rocket Books on 90% Hydrogen Peroxide, Steam and Solid Propellant rocket systems; California Commuter Car plans; Air Car plans; Nuclear War games/T-Shirts! We take PayPal payments for USA & foreign orders. PayPal processes most credit cards too.
Click HERE to see MORE pictures of Doug Malewicki's other inventions and read his free TIPS for new inventors.
Doug's favorite quotes (besides Yoda!)
"Life is what you make it; always has been; always will be." -- Grandma Moses
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How does one go about becoming a Futurist? – Futurist.com …
Posted: July 31, 2016 at 5:41 am
From time to time we respond to questions about the future sent in via email by readers. We dont have a lot of time for this, but when a question seems especially interesting we offer our thoughts.
Jay Anderson asked:
How does one go about becoming a Futurist? Is it a specific degree program, or is it more of a general studies kind of thing? How about a Technologist? Ive seen people listed as Chief Technologist, or Lead Technologist but I dont know how one goes about becoming such. Can you give me any help in heading my training and career that way?
Response by Glen Hiemstra, 2000
Jay,
I am not that familiar with how one becomes a technologist or lead technologist and assume that such a position requires the ability to design and/or program technology.
However, we can give you some guidance on becoming a Futurist. I left a career in higher education in 1987 to begin work full time as a Futurist. There are essentially three paths to this career. First is the informal or self-taught path taken by many people. Professionals in a variety of fields often discover their personal interest in the future, and begin to read the literature of futures studies, forecasting, science and technology, organization and system change, and so on. They begin to attend conferences and seminars as they can find them. Gradually they begin to define themselves as futurists. Of the 40,000 members of the World Future Society, most have taken that path, but only about 1200 are professional members who attempt to make a living as futurists. If this path sounds right for you, it can be successfully followed. The best place to start is with a membership in the World Future Society.
A second path is through the more traditional education institutions. There are both undergraduate and graduate degree programs in futures studies, typically involving interdisciplinary studies. Among those we recommend are the M.S. program in Futures Studies at the University of Houston, Clear Lake, Texas. Another respected program for both undergraduate and graduate work in futures studies is the Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies, at the University of Hawaii. Both programs can provide launching pads for searching for other options.
Finally, a third path is the one that I took, or rather was given. That is the mentor path. In my case an early futurist, and founding member of the World Future society took me under his wing while I was an undergraduate student, and began to feed me things to read and to attend, nurturing my own interest in the Future through what became more than a decade long relationship. His name was Ed Lindaman, at one time director of program planning for building Apollo at the Rockwell Corporation, later a college president when I knew him. If you are fortunate enough to find that kind of relationship, it can combine some of the features of the first two paths, though without the formal degree.
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Futurist | Inside Jobs
Posted: May 21, 2016 at 4:43 pm
What does the future hold? Without a magic ball, no one truly knows. And yet, businesses the world over count on a certain degree of premonition when they plan out a product unveiling two years into the future, or schedule changes in hardware or infrastructure within the next decade. A Futurist is the professional combination of Mathematician, Scientist, and Fortune Teller who offers predictions of what the future holds.
As a Futurist, you might have a background in just about anything. Whether youve been a Lawyer, a Landscaper, or a Librarian, youve acquired the skills of reading between the lines, understanding what people want, and forecasting behaviors.
You earn the title of Futurist when you tap into that understanding and begin to draw conclusions about how customers will act five or more years into the future. Will they go back to brick-and-mortar shopping or rely even more heavily on the Internet?
While your skills benefit pharmaceutical companies planning to promote a new line of medications and toy manufacturers seeking the new generation of electronics, you also promote a better understanding of important societal issues. For example, you might forecast gas consumption, or crunch the most reliable data to calculate up-and-coming economic powerhouses, key players in the political world, or world-altering weather changes.
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Association of Professional Futurists – Home
Posted: May 16, 2016 at 7:40 am
28 March 2016: The APF moved its public site to http://www.apf.org. For now, this URL http://www.profuturists.org will remain the address of this earlier site but eventually will direct you to the new site. Most of the public pages are now closed on this website, which will remain for members' only (with a new URL). If you are a member, and need to access the Community Pages (Compass, Board Meeting Minutes, Private Members' directory, etc), renew your membership or update your profile or privacy settings, you will continue to sign on in the lower left hand corner of this page as usual. On the new site, use the "Member Access" link on the left hand navigation to access these public pages. These public pages will be available for a transition period at http://www.profuturists.org. For members, the Community pages, profile, and membership data will remain here after the transition. You may access it directly or through the new site via the "Community" link on the left hand column (sign-in required). THANKS FOR YOUR PATIENCE DURING THE TRANSITION. If you have any questions, please let us know: contact@profuturists.org.
For members: please see further instructions about the new website on the Community page (navigation at left, sign-in required).
The Association of Professional Futurists is a global community of professional futurists committed to leadership and excellence in the futures field. Our members provide unique perspectives to help people anticipate and influence the future.
The APF aims to set the standard of excellence for foresight professionals. Members include futurists from businesses, governments and non-profits, consulting futurists, educators, and students in futures studies.
We meet regularly, host active electronic discussions among practitioners, provide professional development programs, recognize excellence in futures works, and offer a rich body of ideas and information about the future for the public.
We invite you to browse the site to find out more about what we do. If you are interested in joining, visit theMembershippage where you can apply online.Here's abrief brochureabout the APF andone for students.And, if you have any questions, please doget in touch.
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33 Dramatic Predictions For 2030 – Futurist Speaker
Posted: at 7:40 am
Humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in all of human history.
By 2030 the average person in the U.S. will have 4.5 packages a week delivered with flying drones. They will travel 40% of the time in a driverless car, use a 3D printer to print hyper-individualized meals, and will spend most of their leisure time on an activity that hasnt been invented yet.
The world will have seen over 2 billion jobs disappear, with most coming back in different forms in different industries, with over 50% structured as freelance projects rather than full-time jobs.
Over 50% of todays Fortune 500 companies will have disappeared, over 50% of traditional colleges will have collapsed, and India will have overtaken China as the most populous country in the world.
Most people will have stopped taking pills in favor of a new device that causes the body to manufacture its own cures.
Space colonies, personal privacy, and flying cars will all be hot topics of discussion, but not a reality yet.
Most of todays top causes, including climate change, gay liberation, and abortion, will all be relegated to little more than footnotes in Wikipedia, and Wikipedia itself will have lost the encyclopedia wars to an upstart company all because Jimmy Wales was taken hostage and beheaded by warring factions in the Middle East over a controversial entry belittling micro religions.
Our ability to predict the future is an inexact science. The most accurate predictions generally come from well-informed industry insiders about very near term events.
Much like predicting the weather, the farther we move into the future, the less accurate our predictions become.
So why do we make them?
In the segments below, Ill make a series of 33 provocative predictions about 2030, and how different life will be just 17 years in the future.
I will also explain why predictions are important, even when they are wrong.
Why Understanding the Future is Important
Ignorance is a valuable part of the future. If we knew the future we would have little reason to vote in an election, host a surprise party, or start something new.
Once a future is known, we quickly lose interest in trying to influence it. For this reason, our greatest motivations in life come from NOT knowing the future.
So why, as a futurist, do I spend so much time thinking about the future?
Very simply, since no one has a totally clear vision of what lies ahead, we are all left with degrees of accuracy. Anyone with a higher degree of accuracy, even by only a few percentage points, can achieve a significant competitive advantage.
The Power of Prediction
If I make the prediction that By 2030 over 90% of all crimes will be solved through video and other forms of surveillance, a forecast like that causes several things to happen.
First, you have to decide if you agree that a certain percent of crimes will be solved that way. If so, it forces you to think about how fast the surveillance industry is growing, how invasive this might be, and whether privacy concerns might start to shift current trends in the other direction.
More importantly, it forces you to consider the bigger picture, and whether this is a desirable future. If it reaches 90%, how many police, judges, and lawyers will be out of a job as a result of this? Will this create a fairer justice system, a safer society, or a far scarier place to live?
Please keep this in mind as we step through the following predictions.
33 Dramatic Predictions
Final Thoughts
Reading through the prediction above you will likely have experiences a number of thoughts ranging from agreement, to amusement, to confusion, to total disagreement.
As with most predictions, some will be correct and others not. But the true value in this list will come from giving serious consideration to each of them and deriving your own conclusions.
If you were expecting me to aggressively defend all these predictions, then this column will certainly disappoint you. It has been a lifetime journey for me to formulate my thoughts about the future, but there are far too many variables to build a defensible case for any of them.
That said, I would love to hear your thoughts. Whats missing, too aggressive, or simply misguided? Sometimes my crystal ball is far too fuzzy, so Id love to hear what ideas come to mind.
ByFuturist Thomas Frey
Author ofCommunicating with the Future the book that changes everything
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