Category Archives: Futurism

During a chat with Kara Swisher for The New York Times today, Apple CEO Tim Cook sang the praises of the companys upcoming augmented reality glasses.

Basically, he suggested that AR is going to turn regular conversations into Powerpoint presentations complete with graphs thatll pop up while youre talking to illustrate the point youre trying to make.

Well, I cant talk about anything that may or may not be in the pipeline, he said. But in terms of AR, the promise of AR is that you and I are having a great conversation right now.

Arguably, it could even be better if we were able to augment our discussion with charts or other things to appear, Cook said. And your audience would also benefit from this, too, I think.

Having fun yet? Its not the sexiest vision of the future. Given the immense promise of AR, its surprising to hear the CEO of the biggest tech company in the world jump to something so banal.

Whatever happened to playing Pokemon Go without ever having to glance down at your phone? What about Google Maps directions? Heck, what about sex?

To Cook, AR is here to stay and is already showing great promise in fields like health, education, retail and gaming. Cook also agreed when Swisher asked him if he thinks AR is a critically important part of Apples future.

According to the latest leaks, Apples mixed reality headsets could represent a significant technological leap forward. The device is rumored to be extremely lightweight, weighing even less than an iPhone 12 while still providing a degree of immersion thanks to cutting-edge optics.

But selling such a technology to the masses will likely require more than a promise to insert charts into conversations with other people. Augmented reality headsets havent hit the mainstream yet, with developer-focused devices such as Microsofts HoloLens 2 costing as much as $3,500.

Apples upcoming headset may feature nearly as hefty a price tag, costing as much as $3,000 if the rumors are to be believed.

The company is setting itself up for an uphill battle: the adoption of mixed reality headsets will heavily depend on not only proving to consumers that the techis mature, but also that it has a reason to exist.

READ MORE: Tim Cook says Apple wants to use AR to make conversations better [The Verge]

More on the headset: New Details Leak About Apples Virtual Reality Headset

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The CEO of Apple Thinks People Will Use Augmented Reality for Something Absolutely Hilarious - Futurism

David Houle| Sarasota Herald-Tribune

This is uncharted territory for all of us.Everyone has opinions.Mainstream media coverage is immediate and shallow.So, to honor the title of this column I submit to you my prognostications for the last nine months of this year.

In several prior columns here I suggested that, unless the Biden administration accelerated the number of vaccines per day over the 1 million they promised before Inauguration Day, we would not begin to approach herd immunity until the fourth quarter of 2021 at the earliest.Given that on recent days the number of shots is three times that, the date might move up to the end of the third quarter.

What this means is thatquarantining will end this summer.The beginning of the rebound thatI wrote about in my mini-ebook that many of you have read will begin in earnest in the fourth quarter.The fourth quarter of 2021 through the same quarter of 2022will be one of solid economic growth. Again, I caution readers to not get caught up in the hype of comparing 2021 with 2020 as last year was a one-time-only event.Economic comparisons of 2021 will be valid when compared to 2019 and 2020 think of the hospitality industry.

In a prior column I suggested that those who refused to get vaccinated would be kept on the outside of many public opportunities.This will become the reality starting in the summer.What that means is that while non-vaxxers may be able to dine in restaurants and attend outdoor events with social distancing, they wont be able to travel internationally, attend many conferences, possibly send their children to school and attend most indoor events.

Right now, the view of international travel is that a vaccine passport, or the showing of a fully vaccinated card from the CDC (I just got my card with my second shot on 3/29)will be essential for any international travel and that wont begin until the late summer at the earliest.Given that so many nations are behind the U.S. when it comes to vaccinations, there will be dozens of countries where one will not be able to travel without such vaccine documentation through the balance of 2022.

I have always had trouble with people who refuse to get vaccinated for the common good of society during the pandemic.I believe in the science of vaccines.It kept me from getting the measles, polio, smallpox and the flu, to name just four.It also taught me that the world is round, that climate change is real and that the tides relate to the moon.The science shows that wearing masks significantly prevents the transmission of COVID-19 and that the vaccines for COVID-19 are effective. Period.

Now that we keep getting ever more facts and polls about the virus ithas been documented that, for many, not getting thevaccine is grounded in politics.Why can I say this?Recent national polling shows that of the people who say they will not get the vaccine, the single largest group 49% of the total are self-described men who voted for Trump.

(I immediately wondered why women Trump voters did not show up in similar numbers.Women, is there something about you that transcends politics when it comes to family health? I have not seen any answer to that question.)

We can choose to disagree. However,I must prepare any of my readers who have chosen not to get the vaccine what is ahead.As referenced above, you will not be able to travel internationally for another year unless you accept the quarantine regulations of the country you will be visiting.That usually means quarantining for five to 14 days, having negative virus tests and informing the government of exactly where you will be traveling in country.Not a good thing if one wants to take a two-week vacation.

In addition, I have read and watched stories of restaurants and other hospitality businesses that so want to open and be safe that they will be asking for proof of vaccination.The exceptions will be the wearing of masks.If you refuse to get a vaccination and refuse to wear a mask, your life will be limited to some degree.Freedom of choice means living with the consequences of that choice. There are consequences to actions that civil society imposes on all of us.Drive while drunk and get caught:DUI and license revocation.That is the way it is.If you choose to not get vaccinated for the virus there will be consequences that will be restricting.

This might make you consider getting vaccinated for the common good.

The obvious person to quote here is John Stuart Mill,the famous 19th century British philosopher who famously said:

The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilized community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others. His own good, either physical or moral, is not sufficient warrant.

Accept this and you will be fine with your decision and the restrictions you have self-imposed on yourself

As this column is being written during the final days of March, when we are all high fiving each other by having gotten our vaccines, warnings are coming from public health officials.The rapid decline of deaths, hospitalizations and new cases from the January peak has now leveled off, and in fact are going up.This is coincidental to Americans travelling a more than at any time since we first locked down. It is also coincidental to some 20 states doing away with mask mandates.The two things health scientists have said would create problems are now doing just that.

We have all gone so long with this virus nightmare, we just need to hang on for a couple more months. I say this because if we have another spike later this spring, then the forecasts of opening up early fall might get pushed back.

As I wrote in my mini-ebook, published 1/1/21: The last 10 months of 2020 were about COVID-19 and the first 10 months of 2021 will be about it as well.

The acceleration of vaccinations now occurring could move that up by a couple of months to August.

This will not occur if less than 75% of the population get vaccinated by theend of summer.Again, it is up to us to put this horrid virus behind us.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written seven books and is futurist in residence at the Ringling College of Art + Design. His website isdavidhoule.com. Email him atdavid@davidhoule.com.

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FUTURIST: Post-COVID predictions for now through end of year - Sarasota Herald-Tribune

SpaceXs Starship prototype SN11 wasnt long for this world.

During its fateful launch last week, the massive spacecraft took off inside a cloud of heavy fog at the companys facilities in Boca Chica, Texas, obscuring its ascent to roughly ten kilometers completely.

Several minutes into the flight, SpaceXs official video feeds cut out.Shortly after, a massive explosion could be heard on various livestreams of the event, with heavy rocket parts raining down from the skies. SN11 was no more.

Now, according to CEO Elon Musk, engineers at SpaceX may have figured out what caused the fourth full-scale prototype to blow up.

Ascent phase, transition to horizontaland control during free fall were good, Musk wrote in a Monday tweet. A (relatively) small CH4 leak led to fire on engine 2and fried part of avionics, causing hard start attempting landing burn in CH4 turbopump, he added.

In other words, a Raptor engine caught fire because of a methane leak, leading to a hard start in the engines methane turbopump, a component that increases pressure in the rockets combustion chamber.

The event was seemingly triggered while SN11 was trying to reignite its engines to slow its descent.

Thanks to the heavy fog on March 30, we werent able to watch the explosion unfold on camera. But an animation of what the explosion may have looked like by SpaceX enthusiast Erc X could give us an idea.

The brief animation shows the prototype bursting into a cloud of shrapnel and smoke well above the surface, as it attempted to right itself following its belly flop maneuver during descent.

But Musk is ready to leave SN11s demise behind. In only a short period of time were still not entirely sure when exactly the space companys next Starship prototype, called SN15, will roll out on the launch pad.

[SN15] has hundreds of design improvements across structures, avionics/softwareand engine, Musk tweeted shortly after SN11s explosion. Hopefully, one of those improvements covers this problem. If not, then retrofit will add a few more days.

SN15 will also feature plenty of fixes that address the small methane leak causing SN11 to rip itself into pieces. This is getting fixed 6 ways to Sunday, Musk added in todays tweet.

All we can do is wait and see if the fifth times the charm. If Musk is to be believed, SN15 will be an entirely new beast but theres no guarantee its launch wont end in yet another explosion.

READ MORE: Musk says methane leak doomed latest Starship test flight [Spaceflight Now]

More on Starship: SpaceX Makes Progress on Launch Tower Meant to Catch Starship Booster

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Elon Musk Reveals Why Last Starship Prototype Exploded Before Landing - Futurism

The legendary multi-award-winning stage show Too Much Light Makes The Baby Go Blind (now in its 4th decade!) continues its live nationwide adaptation on Zoom with two special, two-person performances on April 9th and 10th, 2021 at 9pm Eastern Standard Time. Now in its 6th month with a nationwide cast and audience as Too Much Light Makes The Baby Go Zoom, the show will again attempt the IMPOSSIBLE: performing 30 Plays in 60 Minutes with 2 People! Writing, directing and performing are show creator and Neo-Futurism inventor Greg Allen (he/him/his) and Jasmine Rose (they/them/theirs), a four-year veteran of Detroit's UnTheatre Company's ongoing run of Too Much Light.... And they're performing for free to raise money for the beloved theater company!

"When I opened the show in 1988 people thought I was out of my mind," says Allen, "'30 Plays in 60 Minutes? That's impossible!'." The show went on to run continually for 28 years in Chicago and ongoingly with hundreds of productions literally around the world.

When the pandemic hit, producer Christina Killmar didn't want to stop their four-year run of Too Much Light... so she talked to Allen about adapting it to be performed live on Zoom. "I thought that was an insane idea so of course I said 'Yes' and joined the cast from Chicago" says Allen. Performing every weekend with a cast from New York to California signing on live to Zoom proved exciting and the show continued its run to great acclaim.

"There are other companies showing live theater on film or creating canned videos, but our audience is joining us for a LIVE interactive performance on Zoom with all the ritual traditions of the stage show: play order determined by the audience, the menu, the clock, the nametags, audience participation, new plays every week - the works! It's the closest thing you'll get to in-person theater during the pandemic" says Allen.

When it looked like the cast would be shorthanded in the beginning of April, Allen asked Rose if they would be up for attempting the impossible: performing the show with only two people. "It sounds impossible. It's never been done. It couldn't be done on stage, but on Zoom...? I'll do it!" answered Rose.

So, for the first time in the 33-year history of Too Much Light..., two Neo-Futurists will attempt to perform all "30 Plays in 60 Minutes" starting at 9pm on Friday and Saturday, April 9th and 10th, 2021. Admission is the usual sliding scale of $10 to $20 and every penny raised will go to benefit UnTheatre Company! "Such a special show deserves a special beneficiary," declared Rose.

Tickets are available at http://www.UnTheatreCo.org. Too Much Light Makes The Baby Go Zoom will then continue its regular performances every Friday and Saturday at 9pm on April 23rd and 24th and beyond with its usual nationwide cast of Neo-Futurist writer/director/performers including Allen and Rose.

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UnTheatre Co. Presents THE IMPOSSIBLE SHOW - Broadway World

Earlier this month, the Food and Drug Administration and the Southern Nevada Health District announced an investigation into five cases of non-viral hepatitis, which later resulted in acute liver failure in five infants and children.

All five children, they say, had consumed alkalized water products by Nevada-based Real Water the only common link among them, Ars Technica reports.

Following the investigation, several customers have filed lawsuits against the company. Three women from California are even seeking class-action status for their federal lawsuit filed on March 22.

The FDA has become aware that Real Water brand alkaline water is still being offered for sale through online retailers, an official March 31 statement by the agency reads. The agency is working to locate any remaining products to ensure they are no longer available to consumers.

Worse yet, Real Water reportedly isnt cooperating. According to the FDA, the company isnt contacting distributors to inform them about the recall.

Given a lack of cooperation by the firm, FDA investigators have been unable to complete investigations at the Real Water Inc. facilities in Henderson, NV and Mesa, AZ and have not been provided with requested records, the statement read.

The story gets even stranger. The water product companys attorney Charles LoBello told local district judge Elizabeth Gonzalez that both Real Waters plant manager and lead technician appeared to have run for the hills, according to the Las Vegas Review Journal.

There has been difficulty getting ahold of them, LoBello told the judge, asking for two weeks to search for them.

A different attorney of the company, however, said that the company has done everything to cooperate with the FDA, according to the Review-Journal.

Five gallon jugs of the water have now been handed over to the FDA for analysis.

Plaintiff attorney Will Kempsaid that a super bad batch that was reportedly produced in October could be behind the illnesses, according to the newspaper.

But there may be more systemic issues in play.

The whole manufacturing process is flawed in the first place, Kemp told the outlet.

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A Popular Brand of Bottled Water Got Linked to Liver Failure - Futurism

Earlier this year, a billionaire namedJared Isaacman announced that he was picking three lucky winners to go to on a free multi-day journey into orbit on board a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule.

Isaacman, who is helping finance the expedition and will be joining in on the fun himself announced at the time that hes looking to raise money for childhood cancer research through a raffle.

Bone cancer survivor Haley Arceneaux, a 29-year-old physicians assistant, was picked in February. Today, The New York Times reports, Isaacman picked the two other lucky winners to join him on the once in a lifetime journey.

Sian Proctor, a 51-year-old community college professor from Tempe, Arizona, and Christopher Sembroski, a 41-year-old Lockheed Martin data engineer from Everett, Washington, will join Isaacman and Arecenaux.

The stars really aligned for us in terms of this group, Isaacman said.

The plan is to ride the Crew Dragon capsule to an altitude of 335 miles, roughly 80 miles higher than the International Space Station, with launch tentatively scheduled for mid-September.

Proctor decided to pass when asked if she wanted to apply to become an astronaut with NASA after being selected as a finalist in 2009 but not getting one of the coveted nine spots with the agency that year.

I said, No, because I just feel like that door has closed, she told the Times. But I was really hopeful that in my lifetime, maybe commercial space would be available for me. I never in a million years would have imagined it would come just like that and so quickly.

The team of four will now go through health evaluations and then will have to ride a giant centrifuge at the Kennedy Space Center to experience the strong G forces theyll feel during launch and re-entry.

Sembroski spent time as a counselor at Space Camp, a program for children, to get a taste of what its like to be an astronaut. Hes struggling with being in the spotlight and described himself more as that guy behind the scenes, thats really helping other people accomplish their goals and to take center stage, according to NYT.

Everybodys doing that for me this time, he said. And that is a completely different and unique experience.

READ MORE: A Billionaire Names His Team to Ride SpaceX, No Pros Allowed [The New York Times]

More on the mission: Bone Cancer Survivor Will Get Free Trip to Space This Year

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A Contest Is Sending These Mere Mortals Into Orbit For Free - Futurism

Science-fiction has been trying to predict the future for decades, and for one week the Capitol Theatre is screening some of cinema's best efforts.

The elite class living high above the ground, AI virtual assistants (that fall in love), Soylent Green made of people from the bizarre to the innocuous, films have long depicted possibilities for the future.

As part of Melbourne Design Week, the Capitol Theatre is screening ten visionary sci-fi flicks that prophesied what lies ahead socially, politically, technologically, environmentally and existentially.

It opens with silent film Metropolis from auteur Fritz Lang, who explores the divide between social classes through space. The program includes documentary Bombay Beach, a "dreamlike poem" of three personal stories; Joaquin Phoenix vehicle Her, where he falls in love with a Scarlett Johansson-voiced sentient AI; Francois Truffaut's dystopian Fahrenheit 451; and procedural horror Soylent Green. The latter will be preceded by a panel discussion speculating on the future of food and farming in the next 60 years.

Throughout the program, the Capitol is also hosting free exhibitions, talks, activations and performances around ideas of climate and community.

More information here.

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Past Futures: Dystopias, Utopias and Back to Futurism on Screen - Broadsheet

In brief

Wladimir Baranoff-Rossin (1888-1944) is possibly the most famous Russian-Ukrainian avant-garde artist youve never heard of even though his sculpture is on permanent exhibition at the Museum of Modern Art in New York.

Now, almost 100 years after it was painted, his 1926 work "Abstract Composition is being auctioned today, by his estate, alongside the most modern of inventionsa non-fungible token (NFT) which provides verifiable proof of ownership.

The NFT space represents a new medium and frontier for creative expression which is only too fitting to showcase the [Baranoff-Rossine] collection in a never-seen-before way, said Wladimir Baranoff-Rossin, the artists grandson.

Its the first time, according to the Baranoff-Rossin estate, that these cryptographically unique tokens are being paired with such a high-profile work of traditional artcreating a bridge between the digital and physical worlds, but also a way for artists to maintain or revive their relevance, and perhaps forge a brand new community following.

Baranoff-Rossins work has its first auction on a 21st-century art marketplace, Mintable, where it will be sold alongside a corresponding NFT. Unlike a traditional fine art auction, theres no estimate put on an artwork; currently, the highest bid on the Baranoff-Rossin painting is $13,450.

Mintable is backed by entrepreneur Mark Cuban, and built on the Zilliqa and Ethereum blockchains. The marketplace will send the insured Baranoff-Rossine painting to the winning bidder, and they will immediately receive the NFTwhich serves as a blockchain-based authentication certificate.

Now far too big to ignore, NFTs have taken the art world by storm, after a digital artwork by Mike Beeple Winkelmann was sold for $69 million earlier this monththe third biggest sale by a living artist.

Hundreds of thousands of NFTs have now been sold, and sales of crypto art on the Ethereum blockchain now top $405 million. Artists working in traditional mediums are now eyeing hybrid digital-physical NFTs, including Damian Hirst.

The person who places the winning bid on the Baranoff-Rossin NFT will also get a chance to meet the artists family, which has owned the painting since it was created.

And nine Baranoff-Rossin limited-edition works, represented by NFTs, are also being auctioned in purely digital form.

In recent years, the art world has not been kind to this Ukrainian-born artist, even though he is considered a founding father of Russian Avant-Garde Cubo-Futurisma movement that rejected the past, and celebrated all that was modern about the early twentieth century.

While a 1910 Baranoff-Rossin work, Adam and Eve, was auctioned for $5.3 million at Christies in 2008reportedly, the 23rd most expensive painting ever sold at auction by a Russian painter at the timesince then, around 60% of the 100 or so Baranoff-Rossin works auctioned have failed to sell.

The artist spent the last 18 years of his life in France and perished in Auschwitz after he was denounced to the SS for forging passports for Jews. Some collectors consider that, without a home county to nurture his memory, he has almost disappeared from view.

Baranoff-Rossin explained that his grandfather was an inventor as well as an artist and was continuously experimenting with color, textures, and light.

In his day, he was also known for his forward-thinking vision when it came to fusing art and music, having created something called the Optophonic Piano, which projected revolving patterns and was employed by concert halls all over Europe.

As Baranoff-Rossin becomes a key part of this brand new chapter in the history of art, this contemporary of Wassily Kandinsky and Marc Chagall may finally regain his place in the spotlight.

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This 96-Year-Old Russian Futurist Painting Now Comes With Its Own NFT - Decrypt

There is a new four-lettered word taking over everyones vocabulary this past year: mRNA. Messenger RNA (mRNA) has graced the front pages of all media outlets in the last year in the race to the development of mRNA-based vaccines against COVID-19. This technology is so revolutionary that it accelerated vaccine development by more than tenfold. While most of the world had been focused on DNA (deoxyribonucleic acid) over the last several decades, mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) is emerging as a far more informative and useful molecule.

While DNA contains our genes, they are only a static blueprint and cant perform any action unless they are transcribed. When a gene is turned on, it is copied into an mRNA molecule that starts the process of converting the gene sequence into a protein that performs a function. Proteins help us digest food, protect us from pathogens, maintain our blood sugar, produce energy for our muscles, produce neurotransmitters, and so much more.Most people have been misled with the belief that our genes are our destiny when in fact, a vast majority of all chronic diseases have no direct connection to our genetics.

Some important viruses, such as SARS-CoV-2 (that causes COVID-19), Ebola, Influenza, Zika, and Hepatitis B do not contain any DNA at all; their genes are made up of purely RNA. And as we now know, the fastest COVID-19 vaccines to market (Moderna and Pfizer) use mRNA to produce viral proteins in our cells and train our immune system to defend us against the real virus.

Viome is no stranger to mRNA. In fact, the company was founded 5 years ago on a technology platform built from a database of mRNAs found in the human body. This includes human and microbial mRNAs that include identifying and quantifying all viruses (including RNA viruses), bacteria, archaea, fungi, bacteriophages, and parasites. Viomes at-home tests are the first and only mRNA based health and wellness tests that are clinically licensed and available to consumers(Hatch et al., 2019; Toma et al., 2020)without a doctors prescription. This is because Viome is empowering every person to take control of their own health and wellness by understanding whats happening inside their body.

Viome harnesses the power of mRNA to analyze the human body as a human-microbial ecosystem in order to understand what happens inside of your body on a molecular level. They translate this knowledge into health insights partnered with food recommendations and supplements that can help modulate human and microbial mRNA levels, with the goal of maintaining a healthy balance of all gene expressions. One example of this is their ability to use machine-learning algorithms that can translate data from an individuals sample into food and supplement recommendations that can help minimize a users blood sugar levels by recommending a user avoid foods that could elicit a high glycemic response.(Tily et al., 2020).

Viome believes that there is no such thing as universally healthy food or nutrients. By now, the research is pretty clear that one persons food can be another persons poison. Viomes Health Intelligence Test scores (based on an mRNA analysis of microbial, human, and mitochondrial gene expressions) reveal unparalleled insights including Gut Microbiome Health, Cellular Health, Immune System Health, Stress Response Health, Mitochondrial Health, and even Biological Age. Viome uses AI to analyze these and 400+ other health subscores and pathway scores in order to recommend foods a user should avoid or eat more of, and they explain the reason behind them.

Additionally, Viome recommends every user the supplemental nutrition ingredients in the precise dosages that can improve these health scores. Viome built a massive robotics precision supplement manufacturing of the future to become the first and only company that can manufacture these tailor-made precision supplements on demand for every user.This has been the holy grail of precision nutrition that has only become possible now with massive robotics, digital health insights and powerful Artificial Intelligence. Imagine receiving all of your food extracts, vitamins, minerals, herbs, amino acids, enzymes, probiotics, and prebiotics that your body needs without all of the extra stuff that could actually be harming you.Viomes Precision Supplements formulas can be adjusted with every test to ensure continued precision as your body changes.

It is a common misconception that the more supplements you take (or the more of a supplement you take), the healthier you are. We now have data that tells us that this isnt true. For example, Niacin (Vitamin B3) can be good for some people, but cause harm in others who may have high uric acid production.Another popular supplement, NAD+, can be good for longevity for some people, but harm others who have high cellular senescence or high inflammatory activity.

What comes next?

Viome has performed in-depth analysis of mRNA molecules on the worlds largest collection of human clinical samples, including stool, blood and saliva. This massive amount of data has enabled us to develop a good understanding of health and chronic diseases. They have built machine-learnt models that can not only detect the presence of an illness, but predict the onset of chronic conditions prior to any symptoms. Our research team has even developed a novel diagnostic test for early and treatable stages of oral cancer, by, you guessed it, quantifying human and microbial mRNA molecules in saliva(Banavar et al., 2020). This work culminated in a device trial application to the FDA in the USA, and CE Mark in the European Union.

Viome is also making headway in understanding more about what happens inside of our body as we age. We know this is a key area for many reasons, especially because age has become synonymous with the development of chronic diseases. Viome recently published a scientific paper that describes the best aging models based on human and microbial mRNAs(Gopu et al., 2020).

Viome is reinventing the health care system and every day Viome is getting one step closer toward their primary goal: eliminating chronic disease from our vocabulary.

Futurism readers: To create this content, a non-editorial team worked with Viome, who is offering Futurism readers $20 off with code FUTURISM. They help us keep the lights on, and Futurism may receive a commission from sales. This post does not reflect the views or the endorsement of the Futurism.com editorial staff, and none of its claims have been independently verified by Futurism. Furthermore, Viomes founder is a boardmember of Singularity University, Futurisms parent company.

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MRNA: The New Four-Letter Word Thats Revolutionizing Healthcare - Futurism

Authoritarians, meanwhile, think the primary role of the state is to enforce law and order, fear chaos more than anything else, and instinctively respond to problems by cracking down on the perceived source of the issue, Mudde said. Some authoritarians disdain democracy even if they maintain its trappings, but Trump doesnt appear to be one of them, Mudde added. Trump has never really attacked the democratic narrative that the majority of the people should elect their leaders, he noted. The president seems to believe that I have been elected by the majority of the peoplewhich of course he wasnt, but thats his frameand so now everyone else should just accept what I do because I have the mandate of the people. He seeks to underscore his democratic legitimacy by publicizing shows of support.

To understand the current administration, populism is as important as nativism and authoritarianism, because [Trump] fires on all three cylinders, Mudde said.

Theres been little comparative study of whether populists deliver better or worse results for their people than other types of politicians, according to Norris. Not much can be said definitively, for example, about the effect of populist governance on a countrys GDP growth, though a number of prominent populists, particularly in Latin America, have pursued disastrous economic policies.

But what does often happen is that populists, when they come to power and actually have to deal with things on a daily basis, they often become more moderate as they gradually learn that bomb-throwing doesnt work when theyre trying to get things done, Norris said. And then they often lose their popularity over time as a result because they no longer have that appeal of political outsiders.

Just because many of Trumps policiestax cuts that benefit the wealthy, for instancemay not actually help non-elites doesnt mean he cant be described as a populist, Norris added, noting that populists are all over the place on economic policy. Nor is Trump necessarily a fake populist just because hes a billionaire whos appointed a bunch of millionaires and billionaires to his cabinet. Populism as many scholars understand it is, in Judiss words, more a political logic than a policy program or sincerely held belief system.

Sometimes, however, populists dont moderate in office. And either way, empowered populists often pose challenges to the key components of Western-style liberal democracy: civil liberties, minority rights, the rule of law, and checks and balances on government power.

This occurs even as the popularity of populists exposes widespread dissatisfaction with the existing state of representative democracy. Populists are problematic for free societies, but theyre also responding to profound problems in those societies; they succeed when they tap into peoples genuine grievances about the policies pursued by their leaders. As Douglas Carswell, a member of UKIP in Britain, once told the BBC, I think populism is a popular idea with which the elites tend to disagree. Viktor Orban, the populist leader of Hungary, an EU member, recently put it more vividly:

In Western Europe, the center Right ... and the center Left have taken turns at the helm of Europe for the past 50 to 60 years. But increasingly, they have offered the same programs and thus a diminishing arena of political choice. The leaders of Europe always seem to emerge from the same elite, the same general frame of mind, the same schools, and the same institutions that rear generation after generation of politicians to this day. They take turns implementing the same policies. Now that their assurance has been called into question by [Europes] economic meltdown, however, an economic crisis has quickly turned into the crisis of the elite.

But in being anti-establishment, populists typically arent just anti-the other party or anti-particular interests or particular policies, which is normal politics, Norris said. Its really being anti-all the powers that be in a particular society, from political parties and the media to business interests and experts such as academics and scientists.

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What Is a Populist? - The Atlantic