Category Archives: Sports Betting

One of the weird recent streaks in sports betting was the Kansas City Chiefs failing week after week to cover a spread.

From Nov. 1, 2020 to Nov. 7 of this year, the Chiefs were 3-16-1 against the spread over a 20-game stretch including postseason. It's not like the Chiefs were that bad. They just weren't covering.

On one hand it made sense. Oddsmakers lost so often during the first part of the Patrick Mahomes era that all Chiefs lines were inflated. On the other, the Chiefs losing for bettors every week was strange. Bettors couldn't make money on one of the best teams in the NFL.

Like everything else in sports betting, that has flipped. The Chiefs are profitable again. It seems right.

The Chiefs had a great cover for anyone who bet on them Thursday night. They trailed by 8 points in the fourth quarter and tied it, trailed by 7 points late in the fourth quarter and tied it again, then won on a walkoff touchdown in overtime. A field goal win would have gotten Chiefs -3 bettors an unsatisfying push. The win was a lot better.

That's five in a row against the spread. Here's a quick recap of the Chiefs' winning streak for bettors, with the closing lines from Covers.com:

Week 10, -2.5 at Raiders: This was a sign the Chiefs might be awakening. They won 42-14, and bettors had a really easy cover.

Week 11, -2.5 vs. Cowboys: The Chiefs defense came through in this one, grinding out a 19-9 win with a cover that really wasn't in doubt.

Week 12, bye

Week 13, -8.5 vs. Denver: This was a big spread for a Chiefs team that had struggled to cover big numbers. It was a fairly lucky cover, with a pick-six helping on a night that the offense didn't do much. The Chiefs won 22-9 and bettors cashed another ticket.

Week 14, -10 vs. Raiders: The Chiefs defense scored on a fumble recovery on the first play, and there was no question where this game was headed. The Chiefs won 48-9.

Story continues

Week 15, -3 at Chargers: Mahomes was on fire late in the game, and his touchdown pass to Travis Kelce ensured another win for bettors.

Travis Kelce's overtime touchdown was a great play for Chiefs bettors. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)

The problem is that oddsmakers aren't going to give away Chiefs wins.

When Kansas City is hot against the spread and even when they're not they don't get value on the point spread because many bettors love backing them. They're a public team, with a star quarterback leading an explosive offense that has had a ton of success and finds itself in a lot of nationally televised games. It always feels a little scary to fade the Chiefs, even when they're not covering spreads, because of Mahomes. Oddsmakers know that many will back the Chiefs no matter how high their spreads get.

That will be especially true now that they've covered every spread for more than a month. But there can be more confidence in Kansas City if you decide to bet the Chiefs. They're back to covering spreads every week. That makes more sense.

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NFL betting: Chiefs are back in the betting circle of trust after latest winning streak - Yahoo Sports

Peyton Manning gives a thumbs up to the left of his bust at the Class of 2021 Enshrinement at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio., on Sunday, Aug. 8, 2021.Hpt 2021 Class Enshrinement Hof 23

With the launch of online Louisiana sports betting just around the corner, Peyton and Eli Manning have found themselves back on the Bayou State sports scene where it all started for thembut theres a little twist.

Last month, Caesars Sportsbook brought Peyton and Eli Manning into their sports betting empire as brand ambassadors. In fact, the renowned sportsbook made it a family affair by adding Peyton and Elis brother Cooper and father Archie to the unique partnership as well.

Back in July, PointsBet also made a Louisiana sports betting splash of its own by signing New Orleans Saints legend Drew Brees as a brand ambassador. Its clear that major sportsbooks are upping the ante when it comes to generating buzz around their Louisiana launches.

Despite having never played for the New Orleans Saints or LSU Tigers, Peyton and Eli Mannings history with Louisiana runs deep. The QB icons were both born and raised in New Orleans. The brothers made their names in the state playing football for Isidore Newman School before leaving for college.

Thats because their father, Archie, played with the Saints from 1971 to 1982. While he never captured a Super Bowl with the team, he became a two-time Pro Bowler and has since been inducted into the Saints Hall of Fame. Hes widely considered to be one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever put on Saints jersey.

Caesars Sportsbook clearly saw this rich historical connection the Mannings have with Louisiana as an opportunity to connect with sports bettors in the region. As brand ambassadors, the Manning family knows the Louisiana football scene very well and they can use that to help Caesars Sportsbook maintain a strong presence in the state.

Were excited to partner with the team at Caesars Sportsbook, said Peyton Manning in a press release. Were looking forward to interacting with their customers who love sports and love football, and we know Caesars has a lot of fun initiatives planned. They place a strong emphasis on community impact, and we appreciate their support of causes that are important to us.

Speaking of New Orleans football legends, Drew Brees is widely considered to be the greatest quarterback in Saints history. A Super Bowl champion and MVP, Brees is also a 13-time Pro Bowler and will go down in NFL history as one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game.

It makes sense then that PointsBet would want to bring someone of Brees caliber into the fold as a brand ambassador with the upcoming launch of online Louisiana sports betting. The multi-year partnership with Brees is sure to help PointsBet claim their share of the online Louisiana sports betting market when it goes live.

I am excited to team up with PointsBet, a leader in the future of sports entertainment built off elite technology, said Brees in a press release. Sports betting is growing across the country and will positively impact sports engagement, and I am proud to be at the forefront alongside PointsBet and NBC Sports.

Even though online Louisiana sports betting hasnt fully launched just yet, there are plenty of great pre-launch offers available to sports bettors in the state.

Caesars Sportsbook Louisiana (and the Mannings) are bringing a $100 free pre-launch offer and more bonuses at launch for new customers in Louisiana. DraftKings Sportsbook Louisiana is offering their $100 free signup offer and FanDuel Sportsbook Louisiana is doing the same with a $100 signup welcome offer of their own.

BetMGM Louisiana, meanwhile, is adding an extra $100 to the table with their $200 pre-register offer.

For the full list of pre-launch signup offers, check out the table below and hit the link for your state:

Here are the best Louisiana sportsbook promos for early registration.

Keep it locked to SBD for all the latest promo info from your favorite sportsbooks.

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Top Sportsbooks All in on Louisiana Sports Betting With Mannings, Brees - Sports Betting Dime

ANNAPOLIS, MDGovernor Larry Hogan today visited Live! Casino & Hotel and Horseshoe Casino Baltimore to celebrate the official launch of sports betting in Maryland after placing the first sports bet in state history yesterday at MGM National Harbor. The governor was joined by lottery and gaming officials, elected leaders, and sports legends to mark the occasion.

Today marks the culmination of more than a year of effort to get sports betting up and running here in the State of Maryland, said Governor Hogan. In addition to allowing Marylanders to bet on the NFL, March Madness, and so much more, sports betting will also help to keep more dollars in-state and will provide another critical revenue source for public education.

At Live! Casino, the governor bet on Navy to beat Army in tomorrows Army-Navy Game at MetLife Stadium, and at Horseshoe, he bet on the Maryland Terrapins beating Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium. Yesterday at MGM National Harbor, the governor placed the states first sports bet for the Washington Football Team and the Baltimore Ravens to both appear in the Super Bowl.

After a referendum was approved by Maryland voters, HB 940 was passed by the Maryland General Assembly and signed into law by Governor Hogan last May, which officially legalized sports betting in the State of Maryland.

A total of seven facilities have been awarded licenses so far, which are among the 17 entities that were designated in the sports wagering law. Additional locations and the launch of mobile sports wagering are anticipated in the coming year.

Marylands sportsbooks will contribute 15% of their revenue to education in the state. This is in addition to the casino lockbox initiative enacted by Governor Hogan, which requires a further investment of $4.4 billion more for Maryland schools.

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Governor Hogan Celebrates the Launch of Sports Betting in Maryland - The Southern Maryland Chronicle

Thoroughbred racing supports itself with marquee events and TV coverage, but where does harness racing fit in as sports bettings rapid growth continues.

by Dean Towers

Industry heavy hitters met in Arizona at the annual Racetrack Industry Programs Global Symposium on Racing this week. The hottest topic involved the current sports betting landscape and racings place in it.

Unfortunately, the top-line numbers for horse racing are not very encouraging.

FanDuel Sportsbook had more customers in November than TVG has had in 22 years, noted Andrew Moore, FanDuels vice president of racing, during a sports betting and racing panel.

The demographics are equally troubling. The top funnel under 40 years of age sports bettor represents 73 per cent of their sportsbook customers. Meanwhile, 69 per cent of their racing arms customer base is 40 or over.

Sports bettings growth is not the least bit surprising. It has only recently been legalized in many states (with more to come), so it has a newness and possesses a ready-made market filled with customers whove been eager for legal, safe sports betting platforms.

In addition, the sports betting companies are spending mind-boggling amounts of marketing cash on customer acquisition. Year over year advertising was up over 80 per cent this spring and that has only grown for the football season this fall. According to industry journalists, sports betting companies are expected to spend up to $1 billion on football ads before the season ends in January.

Although its daunting that advertising spend in 2021 for sports betting may end up rivalling what horse racing delivers in purses (including from slots), there are some potential positives. FanDuel/TVG, among others, believe that many of these newly acquired customers have never been exposed to horse racing and plan to bring the sport directly to them through something called a shared wallet.

Shared wallets used for decades in Europe and Australia allow for sports bettors to seamlessly transition between, for example, betting the Steelers minus 4, and the 5th at Belmont.

What we have seen is that sports betting customers are extremely willing to bet on horse racing. What we also see is they dont really hang around, because they have different sports betting accounts with separate logins. Theyre not inclined to deposit and play at two different places on the one day, said Moore.

We will have our ADW integrated into our sportsbook next year, Moore said.

As well, online sportsbooks have been pushing a racing partnership for fixed odds wagering. This type of wagering has been popular in other parts of the world for many years.

Although perhaps a tad overconfident, I dont believe the industry bullhorn on shared wallets is the usual wishful thinking. The more money an entity has on account from people with a proclivity to gamble, the better it is for tangential sports like horse racing to generate revenue. From a pure business case perspective, you and I see this each day when we log into our bank accounts. Banks spend copious amounts of marketing money on customer acquisition because the lifetime value of each of us linking lines of credit, credit cards, mortgages or stock trading accounts outstrips the cost.

Fixed odds wagering, although great for page real estate and marketing, is probably less of a good thing and will perhaps end up little more than a novelty. But it too provides racing with exposure it did not have before.

The way I see it, however, while this business plan on the surface looks positive for horse racing as a whole, it presents real issues for harness racing.

Thoroughbred racing can take advantage of fixed odds and shared wallets because their broadcast and popularity is huge. When an event is high funnel its much easier to entice someone new because it does not have to be introduced.

Millions of people gather for the Triple Crown races; less of a number but still a formidable amount does the same for the Breeders Cup. Its not difficult for many sports bettors to recognize the event, get information they need, flip on their television and partake in the gambling game of racing via their shared wallet. Its not hard to imagine that this could generate millions in new handle for say next springs Kentucky Derby.

For harness racing, its just not the same.

This sport has a tiny footprint and broadcast. Your average FanDuel sports bettor is not already introduced to harness racing events. Theyre not going to on a whim get a subscription to TrackMaster for racing programs so they can make a wager on the third at Western Fair. The shared wallet provides the sport with little edge.

As a gambling sport, harness racing has always been the poorer cousin; the afterthought; the go along to get along. Its the sport that takes 3 per cent for its signal at national ADWs to get exposure, with the bulk of the juice going to the ADW or thoroughbred track. Its a sport that might have a Triple Crown, but when one of the legs is cancelled no one even notices. Its the sport that has rarely thought about investing in its exposure or creating its own gambling identity.

The sport is not going to change this overnight; its simply smaller and has less money to invest when compared to the thoroughbreds. But in my view, it must plan for the new shared wallet, fixed odds, sports betting world and there are realistic strategies this sport can implement to reach that goal.

Ill examine a few of them in Part 2 next week.

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As sports betting evolves, harness racing must create its own niche - Harness Racing Update

The Connecticut Lottery Corporation said its giving the state $30 million more this month compared to a similar period last year.

Officials said Lottery games have made more than $600 million in sales in the last five months.

The Lottery is operated on behalf of the state. After costs and expenses, the rest of the money goes into the states general fund.

A member of the board credited scratch off games for doing the most business.

Lottery officials also said sports betting saw steady growth throughout November, punctuated by a big day of mobile betting on Thanksgiving. They said they want to hear from local businesses interested in hosting in-person sport betting.

The Connecticut Lottery has nine retail sports betting locations across the state, so far. They're legally allotted 15.

Chairman Rob Simmelkjaer said the Lottery will give special consideration to applicants from under-represented groups.

Minority business owners, females as well we are definitely hoping to see some applications from under-represented groups because we want to have a group of retail establishments and ownership groups that reflect the population of our state, Simmelkjaer said.

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Sports betting gives a boost to Connecticut's state lottery - WSHU

Illinois furthered Octobers run of record-smashing with regards to sports betting handle nationwide, entering the top 10 all-time in the post-PASPA era after the Illinois Gaming Board on Wednesday reported a traditional handle of $840.4 million.

The figure, which is the eighth-largest handle reported since sports wagering has been legalized on a state-by-state basis beginning in 2018, pushed the overall national handle for October to $7.06 billion. Arizona, which has yet to report figures since beginning sportsbook operations in September, is expected to add a final notable chunk with its first full month of action when that revenue report is released.

The Land of Lincoln also set its all-time monthly high for operator revenue at just shy of $52.6 million, resulting in a 6.26% hold. Illinois became the third state, along with New Jersey and Nevada, to surpass $50 million in operator revenue in a month, and it recorded the 15th-highest all-time figure post-PASPA. Lastly, Illinois joined New Jersey, Nevada, and Pennsylvania as the only states to clear $7 billion in all-time handle.

The record operator revenue led to an all-time high of $7.9 million being deposited into the state tax coffers, with Cook County receiving a separate $570,237 in receipts from the 2% tax levied on revenue generated from wagers placed within the county. Illinois has collected more than $61.8 million in taxes from sports wagering for the year, and more than $80 million since the first wagers were accepted in March 2020.

When states October numbers began pouring in nationwide, it was quickly obvious that two additional weekend days of wagering coupled with the fervor of NFL wagering both as an individual sport and packaged via single-game parlays or other parlay wagers would enable the months handle to dwarf Septembers and make the celebration of crossing $5 billion in monthly handle for the first time a short-lived one. Illinois lived up to those trends on both counts, as it had $523.5 million in overall football and parlay handle, representing nearly 62% of the monthly total.

Not including Connecticut, which launched in October, Illinois is among 20 states out of 22 reporting to have set a new monthly record for handle. The $840.4 million wagered was a 40.9% increase from the $596.5 million wagered in September and a 93.4% year-over-year increase from the $434.6 million bet in October 2020.

Revenue rose 31.5% compared to September and 24.6% versus October 2020, with the latter impacted by last years win rate being 3.45 percentage points higher at 9.71%.

For the sixth straight month, DraftKings was Illinois top online operator for handle while FanDuel kept claiming honors for revenue. The spread between the two titans was far more pronounced in October, as DraftKings became the first online operator in Illinois to clear $300 million in handle at $310.5 million, which accounted for nearly 40% of all online and mobile handle.

FanDuel was a distant second at $236.4 million, which was almost 30% market share, as it cleared $2 billion in all-time handle in the state. BetRivers took the final podium spot at $119.3 million. It was the first time BetRivers reached nine figures since January, and it posted its second-highest handle since launch. Barstool Sportsbook had a 53.2% month-over-month increase to a record $68.7 million, while PointsBet narrowly missed an all-time high with just shy of $60 million.

Caesars continues to severely lag behind the other five operators. Its $12.7 million handle was a 56.7% increase from September and was its second best in Illinois, but it also represented just 1.6% of the $803.4 million wagered online.

On the revenue side, FanDuel generated close to $23.2 million in revenue an all-time high for any operator in Illinois while easily outpacing DraftKings at $12.9 million. DraftKings could take solace, though, in nearly doubling its revenue compared to September, despite a 4.15% hold.

BetRivers again claimed the final podium spot with nearly $7.8 million in revenue, followed by PointsBet ($3.1 million), Barstool ($2.9 million) and Caesars ($505,178).

To put FanDuels ability to generate revenue from parlays in perspective, at least as it pertains to Illinois, consider that its $15.3 million earned from that category represented nearly two-thirds of its overall revenue. FanDuel posted a 19.65% hold on $78 million in wagers.

DraftKings also had more than half of its revenue originate from parlay wagering at $6.6 million, though its hold was a more modest 9.31% on $71.2 million. Overall, revenue from parlays came to nearly $26.6 million the most in state history on a 13.9% hold as the handle was also a record at $190.7 million.

Among sports, football wagering provided the most revenue to operators at more than $9.1 million, though the hold was just 2.74% from the $332.8 million bet on pro and college football. Baseball ranked second with more than $6.7 million, followed by tennis ($3.3 million), basketball ($2.2 million), and soccer ($2.1 million).

While debate in the Chicago City Council continues over the proposed ordinance that would lift the home rule ban to allow sports betting in Chicagos stadiums and arenas, Rivers Casino continues to dominate the retail scene just outside the city limits in Des Plaines. Nearly $16.8 million was wagered there in October, an all-time record at any location, and the $37.1 million bet in person statewide was also an all-time high in addition to being a 43.7% improvement on Septembers $25.8 million.

Retail revenue slipped 7.8% to $2.2 million, however, as the retail win rate plunged 3.33 points to 5.95%. Hollywood Aurora, which got a visit from Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy during October, was the only retail book to post a double-digit percentage hold at 11.67%, as it collected $219,664 on nearly $1.9 million wagered.

Rivers was the top revenue generator at $619,989, with Casino Queen ($541,449) in East St. Louis second and Alton Argosy ($347,482), also on the western side of the state, rounding out the top three.

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Monthly U.S. Sports Betting Handle Clears $7 Billion With Illinois $840M In October - Sports Handle

Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, left, celebrates after scoring past Las Vegas Raiders safety Tre'von Moehrig, right, during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Its not exactly what were accustomed to with a Patrick Mahomes-led team, but this iteration of the Kansas City Chiefs is still going to be tough to handle.

KC shredded the Las Vegas Raiders again, and have now reeled off six straight wins and their 2022 Super Bowl odds reflect that.

Its far from a two-horse race with the Chiefs and the top-rated Buccaneers, however. With the Packers in action tonight against the Bears, and the Rams and Cardinals set to clash on Monday night, lets look at the other teams moving up and down the title board.

*Odds as of Dec. 12 from FanDuel.

If it feels like the only team Kansas City seems to stomp on these days is the Raiders, well, youre right. They thrashed Vegas 48-9, and in two wins outscored them 89-23.

And yet, while there were some elements of the old Chiefs offense, theyre still not exactly the juggernaut NFL defensive coordinators feared. Mahomes was 20-for-24 for 258 yards and two scores, while Tyreek Hill, Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman and Darrel Williams all had receptions of 20 yards or more.

Their running game churned out 132 yards and three TDs on 30 carries, though Clyde Edwards-Helaire only had 37 yards, and seldom-used Derrick Gore totaling 67 yards and a score in an extended garbage time.

Perhaps its that defense thats returned to better than serviceable form. KCs D sacked Derek Carr four times and turned a Josh Jacobs fumble into a TD before the offense even hit the field.

Theyve also held teams to less than 10 points in three straight games, while surrendering 17 points or less in every win during this streak. Heres hoping you grabbed them at a better number than their current +550 odds, as theyre business.

It was a tale of two halves at Raymond James Stadium Sunday. A Tom Brady touchdown scamper with 90 seconds left in the first half had the Buccaneers in total control, up 24-3.

Credit the Buffalo Bills, however, for not folding. A Josh Allen TD run got the ball rolling, before he connected on touchdown throws to Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis in the fourth quarter. A Tyler Bass field goal with under 30 seconds to go evened the game at 27-27.

After Buffalo went three-and-out on their first drive of OT, Brady walked them off with a strike to Breshad Perriman.

With the win, they join Arizona as the only teams with double-digit wins so far this season. The Bucs have now won four in a row, while improving to a perfect 5-0 at home.

Their odds shorten to +450, from the +550 perch they sat at to start Week 14.

Theres something not quite right with Buffalo and its hard to pinpoint exactly where it stems from. The defense, much maligned after getting run over by the Patriots in a 14-10 loss, surrendered another 100-yard rushing performance, this time from Leonard Fournette.

Brady picked them apart through the air, finishing 31-for-46 for 363 yards and three touchdowns. They did bounce back, however, holding the Bucs to just three points before surrendering the game-winning score in OT.

Buffalos offense was abysmal in the first half, as they generated four punts, an interception and a field goal in six possessions.

Still, their ace in the hole is Allen, who showed he is still capable of winning any game. He finished with 308 yards passing with two touchdowns and a pick, while running 12 times for 109 yards and another score.

Buffalo fades from +1000 odds to +1400, but do not be afraid to get them at this number. Allen is that good.

The Dallas Cowboys didnt make it easy, but they took command of the NFC East with a 27-20 win over the Washington Football Team. It was a game Dallas dominated most of the way, but a pair of Washington fourth quarter scores, including a Dak Prescott pick-6, brought this to a one possession game.

While their receivers try to get in sync (CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup have less than 100 snaps played together) and their running backs try to get healthy, their defense appears championship caliber.

They picked off Taylor Heinicke once, while forcing three fumbles, and adding a score. Linebacker Micah Parsons is not just making a case for DROY, but DPOY. He had two sacks to get to 10 on the year. Dallas improves from +1300 to +1100 odds.

If theres a team thats been on the fringes that just needs to get healthy, youd be looking at the Tennessee Titans, who improved to 9-4 on the year and still battling for a top seed in the conference after a 20-0 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Ryan Tannehill played mistake-free football in this one, throwing for 191 yards, while also running for a score.

It was their defense that made much of the noise, as they picked off no. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence four times, while also getting home with three sacks.

Tennessee is alone in first in the AFC South, and if Derrick Henry and AJ Brown can get healthy, this may be a team worth looking at.

The Titans jump from +2200 odds to +1800, good for the 9th-best odds on the board. If youre interested in them as a wager, be sure to watch their injury reports as we get closer to the end of the season.

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Chiefs Win 6th Straight, Closing In on Buccaneers in Latest Super Bowl Odds - Sports Betting Dime

Given that the Saturday college football schedule is no longer a thing, bettors are going to go to the hardwood for their action. These immense college basketball cards can be very overwhelming. There are a ton of games and it is tough to find a starting point. A lot of people will simply gravitate towards the marquee games and the ones that will be on TV, but those highly-scrutinized games often have the tightest lines and the most efficient markets.

Ive long suggested a conference specialization approach. Ive talked about this a bit in previous blurbs, but I think it is especially important to talk about now that CFB is down to bowl games. Find maybe 2-4 conferences that you like, or have had success in, and study those teams. Become an expert. Know more than the sportsbooks. Find value on those teams and in those games. It will help you narrow your focus for these big cards and also give you a good chance at beating the book.

In my estimation, it makes the most sense to look for value in the smaller conferences. The games that dont get as much betting action are going to have a few characteristics that I find beneficial, especially as a sport where it is virtually impossible to know every team to the degree that we know NFL and college football teams.

For one thing, sharp money is more defined. In marquee matchups, sharp action gets a little bit muddled. In conferences like the Sun Belt, Summit League, MAAC and other one-bid leagues that the vast majority of public bettors dont care too much about, the line moves are pretty obvious and also pretty telling.

A lot of bettors try to do too much. There are 358 Division I teams. Let the sportsbooks worry about knowing all of them. Put your focus on 30 or 40 teams and dedicate your time and financial resources to those. The books are balancing action on 100 games on Saturdays. Theyre not going to have a tight number on all of them, but they will focus on the high-handle games with teams like Duke, Gonzaga, Purdue, Kansas, UCLA, etc., but wont put as much time or energy into teams like Manhattan, Grand Canyon or Santa Clara.

If you can take the time to set up a network on these conferences by following beat writers, reading newspapers, studying the stats and metrics and also following the market and what the sharp money is doing on those teams, you should be able to make your Saturdays profitable.

Furthermore, when conference play rolls around, these conferences play on the same days each week. For example, Conference USA plays Thursday and Saturday. You know that the games are coming on those days. You can be ready for them. The Big Ten plays more Sunday games than most conferences. You can set up the conferences you want to give you a spread-out schedule with opportunities for action every day.

Weve all heard that time is money and that is true of the time and resources you dedicate to betting. It is a work smarter, not harder type of concept and one that should yield positive returns.

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Burke: The concept of conference specialization - VSiN Sports Betting News - News - VSiN

The Baltimore Ravens (8-4) visit the Cleveland Browns (6-6) for a Week 14 matchup Sunday. Kickoff from FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we look at the Ravens vs. Browns odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.

The Ravens are looking to rebound after a crushing 20-19 loss at the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, failing on a 2-point conversion inside the final minute. The Ravens offense has struggled, averaging just 15.3 points per game (PPG) across the past four outings, all Under results.

The Browns, who had a bye last week, face the Ravens in back-to-back games as they lost 16-10 at Baltimore in Week 12. Playing a team in consecutive regular-season games isa scheduling quirk we havent had in the NFL since 1991, and its the first time the Browns faced the same opponent in back-to-back games since 1957.

Also see:All Week 14 odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; accessUSA TODAY Sports betting oddsfor a full list. Lines last updated at 1:17 a.m. ET.

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Ravens

Browns

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Ravens 20, Browns 16

The RAVENS (+120) are the play here. They topped the Browns in Baltimore on SNF two weeks ago despite 4 interceptions and a minus-2 turnover differential. That kind of sloppy play isnt happening again, and the Browns are just too banged up to do much more than they have lately.

RAVENS +2.5 (+100) are a good play if youre expecting a repeat of last week when Baltimore lost by one point. But the Browns havent covered in three games and are just 2-6 ATS across the past eight. Baltimore dominates this series. Sunday wont be any different.

Roll with the UNDER 42.5 (-108) in this rematch in Cleveland. The weather forecast calls for wins of 16 mph blowing in off of Lake Erie. That should encourage both sides to keep the ball on the ground. The breezy conditions might also hamper kicking efforts, which is great news for Under bettors.

Also see:Bet Slippin Podcast: NFL Week 14 picks and predictions

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns odds, picks and prediction - USA TODAY Sportsbook Wire

Last week might have been the worst sports-betting week of my life. So Im sure were both sure I have something of value to say, right?

Into Week 14 we go.

Although Im not a trends bettor, I find that using the Action Labs database helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.

Lets take a look at a few trends for the early spreads and totals for this upcoming week.

For the rest of my Week 14 plays, check out the FTN Bet Tracker as well as my best bets article.

All lines are from the Action Network NFL Odds page.

Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).

The Browns are No. 6 in the league with their 46.8% rush rate; the Ravens, No. 8 at 45.9% (per the FTN NFL Pace & Run/Pass Report). In this matchup, we have two teams that will rely heavily on the ground game, which will likely result in slow inefficient drives and a consistently running play clock.

On top of that, the Ravens and Browns are divisional rivals. Like an old married couple, they know each others tendencies and tricks and they hate each other. No easy points will be given.

Add in the fact that this is an outdoor game with the weather getting colder, and the under becomes highly attractive. In divisional games played outdoors in December and January, the under is 292-230-15 (8.9% ROI).

Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield should be healthier coming out of the Week 13 bye, but he has been battling shoulder, foot, and groin injuries for the past month, and over that span the Browns have averaged just 10 points per game as he has completed only 50.6% of his passes with 4.8 adjusted yards per attempt-.

As for the Ravens, quarterback Lamar Jackson has thrown eight interceptions over his past four games.

When the Browns and Ravens played in Week 12, they combined for just 26 points.

Action: Under 43 (-110) at PointsBetLimit: 41.5 (-110)

Its not as if the entirety of quarterback Dak Prescotts career can be broken down to one split but it kind of can.

Against his NFC East rivals, the Cowboys passer has overperformed. Against non-divisional opponents, Prescott has been less than mediocre.

On average, the Cowboys with Prescott have outperformed the spread by a margin of +5.4 points against the NFC East. They havent just beaten their division. Theyve dominated it.

In offensive expected points added (EPA), the Cowboys are No. 11 per play (0.055); the Football Team, No. 19 (0.015).

In defensive EPA, the Cowboys are No. 5 (-0.069); the Football Team, No. 30 (0.112, per Ben Baldwins RBs Dont Matter website).

Anything the Football Team can do, the Cowboys can do better.

With three extra days to rest and prepare coming off Thursday Night Football, the Cowboys should cover.

Action: Cowboys -4.5 at BetMGMLimit: -6.5 (-110)

Im a simple man. I live by a few rules.

One of them is that I bet on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers at home, where hes an outrageous 67-36-4 ATS for his career.

Say whatever you want about the predictiveness of trends, but not betting on Rodgers at Lambeau Field has historically been the equivalent of refusing free money.

Additionally, Rodgers has been absurdly dominant against the NFC North. For his career, hes 48-28 ATS in division and 24-12 ATS at home against division.

Off the bye, I expect the Packers to be sharp as cheese #NailedIt given that Rodgers is 11-5-1 ATS off the bye week. Against the NFC North, hes 5-0 ATS off the bye.

And hes playing the Bears, whom, in case youve forgotten, he owns.

No team has been more generous to Packers bettors than the Bears, against whom Rodgers is 20-7 ATS.

And against Bears head coach Matt Nagy, Rodgers and Packers head coach Matt LaFleur are 5-0 ATS.

The 2021 Packers are a league-best 10-2 ATS.

Im admittedly a square but I cant imagine not betting on Rodgers and the Packers in this spot.

Action: Packers -11.5 at DraftKingsLimit: -13.5 (-110)

See the rest here:

Freedmans NFL Week 14 Odds, Trends & Picks: 3 Bets on Ravens-Browns, Cowboys-WFT, Packers-Bears - The Action Network