Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

South Africas workforce must step up efforts to become more effective contributors to the countrys economy.

Skills development and recruitment company Afrika Tikkun Services (ATS) said workers must take responsibility and rise to the task of developing the skills that will keep them relevant and beneficial to the home and the economy.

Its important that economic empowerment ensures that people acquire the skills which translate into real economic activity, says ATS CEO, Onyi Nwaneri.

While one can empathise with the argument for a living minimum wage, employers at the corporate level express that many workers in South Africa are under-skilled and present limited competence in carrying out their tasks., said Nwaneri.

Industry players have maintained South Africa is among the most expensive workforces compared to other developing countries, despite crippling inequality.

South African employers operate in an unequal society which requires redress from the injustices of apartheid, but this alone cannot justify policies that may hinder economic progress.

The controversial national minimum wage (NMW) might offer a small victory to workers, but it has compromised the ability of small businesses to experience business growth.

This will only shrink SAs workforce into a smaller, more expensive and under-skilled workforce.

At the same time, many traditional professions are evolving, creating obsolescence for some jobs while others will require workers to upgrade their skills to remain relevant in their profession.

Given that companies have little organic incentive to keep these jobs open as technology evolves, it will be incumbent upon workers to keep themselves employable with skills that speak to the evolving needs of the employer, emphasised Nwaneri.

A recent report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) shows 87% of South African CEOs are most worried about a skills shortage in their organisation.

We need to look at what other emerging economies are doing correctly when it comes to keeping employment numbers up and what best practices are being followed by companies that maintain skill relevance and abundance in their workforce, says Nwaneri.

The latest official productivity data suggests that South Africas workforce is lagging in productivity, dropping by 5,03% year-on-year in December 2021.

According to the Census and Economic Information Center (CEIC), there was a significant decline in labour and multifactor productivity.

Productivity SA, a government agency which promotes employment growth, said these productivity trends reflect a decline in creativity, or innovation, as the leading factor in the collapse of productivity during this period.

We need to do a lot more learning on how to tackle this issue by taking into account learnings from other developing countries.

There also needs to be a greater discussion around how labour is protected over the enterprise and not beholden to a free market, which makes it difficult to deal with unproductive labour, says Nwaneri.

Studies have found over-regulation and unproductive labour discourage investment.

Economists at Frontier Economics found in 2012 that higher levels of employment protection legislation (EPL) could positively and negatively impact innovation.

But it was more likely that the impact on overall productivity growth is negative. The report also found a negative relationship between higher EPL and investment.

Plummeting employment numbers and a growing skills gap in South Africas most vital economic sectors occur as global pressures demand that the economy produce young, skilled and productive workers in great numbers.

Failing to do so means South Africa could face an economy of pensioners and low-skilled workers.

Now is the time for job seekers and employed workers alike to adopt an attitude of self-empowerment which begins with acquiring the skills that keep workers productive and contributing to the economy, ATS urges.

Complacency in the face of a 66% youth unemployment rate and sinking labour productivity numbers is not an option if South Africa is to weather the storm of socio-economic turmoil.

Ensuring more South Africans acquire relevant skills and access to economic opportunities will create a more professionalised labour market.

This will ensure increased employment capacity at every level of the economy, relieving the volatility faced by entry-level and informal sector job-seekers.

Compiled byNarissa Subramoney

NOW READ: SA dominated by white supremacy: Not much to celebrate this Workers Day

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Workers Day: Onus on staff to upskill themselves - The Citizen

VOICES

The advent of another Workers Day, which is annually celebrated worldwide on May 1 gives workers and their families an opportunity to pause and deeply analyse the progress, if any made in the numerous uphill battles that they face on a day-to-day basis, as they eke out a living in an increasingly hostile neo-liberal world that South Africa has steadily become over the past century.

The prognosis is bad.

The ANC, an erstwhile ally of workers has morphed into the worst acolytes of a discredited neo-liberal capitalist system, whose only response to high levels of poverty, chronic joblessness, and the highest level of inequality in the world is to implement austerity measures.

READ:Inside Labour | Mayday, Mayday, Mayday! the distress signal workers are sending out today

Through its numerous failures, the ANC and its business friends (with whom, and on whose behalf, it governs), have extracted more than a pound of flesh from workers and their families. The deliberate devaluing and collapsing of viable state-owned enterprises (SOEs) leading to thousands of job losses is but a case in point. Eskoms inability to provide reliable electricity which is therefore throttling an already anemic economy, is perhaps one of the ANC governments greatest historic failures.

This incredulous own goal, which came after numerous warnings about building future capacity, some going as far back as former president Thabo Mbekis administration, as well as 10 years and counting of loadshedding, with no credible solution in sight, demonstrates astounding incompetence at the highest levels of the ruling party. Numsa does not hold any hope for any accountability because the factional politics of the ANC have made it well-nigh impossible to scrutinise certain ministers whose misrule has resulted in untold suffering for workers and their families.

READ:How Eskoms board helped the Guptas buy a mining company

Here are just a few of the ways that workers have borne the brunt of the rolling blackouts that have become normalised in South Africa:

Job losses through company and plant closures

Numerous small and medium-sized businesses are closing down. According to Stats SA in the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate has increased to 35.3% and the expanded definition which includes those who have given up looking for work is at a staggering 46.6%. The manufacturing sector was hardest hit, having shed 85 000 jobs, followed by the construction industry which lost 25 000 jobs followed by the utilities and transportation sectors which shed 14 000 and 13 000 respectively.

READ:Zumas critical role in Guptas plans to capture Eskom revealed

Numsa is experiencing first-hand the impact of these job losses because it is reflected in the large number of retrenchments notices it has received in the last two years. In many cases, companies cited persistent load-shedding and increasing energy costs as part of the rationale for downsizing operations or closing down. The situation has also been exacerbated by the hard lockdown caused by the covid-19 pandemic, and, the unrest we experienced in July last year. It is worthwhile to remind the reader that every South African worker looks after up to seven family members, on his or her meagre income. So, every job lost has a devastating impact, not just on the worker involved, but on society as a whole.

Safety and security

The areas where the majority of the working class reside particularly in townships and informal settlements are places which are usually rife with crime. This is made worse by regular blackouts because it allows criminals to perform their dirty deeds under the cover of darkness. This makes it particularly unsafe for women to walk to and from their places of work. Workers are easy prey for vicious criminals and the police have unfortunately proven to be quite weak in protecting our communities. The sharp increase in the crime rate is no coincidence.

The state seems unable to deal with this spike in crime that all South Africans are acutely feeling. As a result, vigilante attacks are on the increase.

This has also given rise to the unfortunate scapegoating of all foreign nationals as being responsible for criminality. This is because communities are frustrated by the slow pace of service delivery and by the prevalence of violent crime and the failure of the state to adequately address this.

Higher electricity tariffs

Eskoms position is indefensible. The country is subjected to crippling rolling blackouts but South Africans are paying more for electricity. When Eskom was making an application for a tariff increase of 20.5% in January 2022 to the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, it justified the request on the basis that the cost of procuring energy from Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and the carbon tax were driving the tariff increase. These two factors contributed 13.8% of the proposed increase. (As of April 1, a tariff increase of 9.5% went into effect).

READ:Mmusi Maimane | Why we are gatvol

When Numsa went to the high court to prevent the signing on of 27 Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer projects in 2018, we were severely criticised. But we had a duty to defend the principle of a Just Transition and currently, the manner that this government has embarked on this process does not match up at all to what was envisioned by the International Labour Organization as a just transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy.

The ILO calls for a human-centred approach, one where the livelihoods of workers and communities are not negatively affected. Where every job lost in the coal industry is replaced, or, workers are upskilled. The best way to achieve that is, Numsa argued, is if these companies are owned and controlled by workers and communities.

We demanded ownership, but instead, what we got was loans to the tune of R131 billion to fund the transition.

The CSIR predicted that over 90 000 jobs would be lost because of the transition and yet there is still no social labour plan from the government to mitigate against this looming disaster.

READ:Forget Eskom, go renewable

Furthermore, the union warned that these privately owned renewable energy projects were a vehicle to privatise energy generation at Eskom, and as a result, the cost of energy would increase. It was revealed in court papers that the REIPP project would cost the fiscus R1.4 trillion, an amount significantly larger than the nuclear deal.

Green capital seeks to profit too

Capital, even green capital, does not have a vested interest in mitigating against climate change. It seeks to profit and as long as that is the primary motive, this can never be a sustainable solution to reducing carbon emissions. Numsa demands that a considered approach be taken before coal power stations which are the lifeblood of the economy of the Mpumalanga province, are arbitrarily shut down. Our critics have unfairly attacked the general secretary Irvin Jim of having sold out to the coal industry, when the union is simply demanding that the Just Transition which we signed up for, should be done at a rate the country can afford, and, in a way that does not cost the country any more suffering for the working class.

READ:Irvin Jims birthday party paid for by embattled life insurer

In May 2021 Numsa identified the following issues that needed urgent intervention if we were to find long term solutions to Eskoms spiraling debt crisis:

1. Government must intervene in the ever-escalating costs of primary energy, which have been rising at a minimum of 17% per annum. This includes the cost of IPPs, coal and diesel. These contracts must be investigated and, in some cases, set aside because the cost escalations are not justifiable. There is a directive from government on this but no action has been taken to date.

2. In contrast, employee benefit costs decreased by 6% between 2019 and 2020. Since 2017 until the end of the financial year for 2020, this cost has remained flat. The false narrative that the wage bill is to blame for Eskoms financial problems, is just that. A lie. And it is being used to unfairly target workers and justify job cuts.

3. The governments disastrous decision to allow big business to self-generate by up to 100 MW. This is scandalous because the ANC government, which is also the erstwhile shareholder, is enabling the private sector to compete against Eskom, thereby fast-tracking the collapse of the entity. We recommended that this decision must be reversed immediately because government should not drive an agenda that results in Eskom losing much-needed revenue.

4. At least R250 billion of Eskom debt must go onto the government books. This must include the R38 billion owed by municipalities which cannot be paid as a result of the reduction in allocation by the National Treasury. Those municipalities do not have any revenue as a result of the depressed socio-economic conditions and poor governance and expecting them to pay the owed amount is beyond incredulous.

5. Eskom must establish its own renewable energy company which must execute 70% of the renewables in the IRP and it must be allocated nuclear in light of the government having taken a decision to include nuclear in the energy mix. Such a demand is in line with the 1998 Government White Paper and it is in the best interest of job security for workers at Eskom. It also ensures the long-term sustainability of the power utility.

If no action is taken, the consequences will be dire. The food riots witnessed in July are just the tip of the iceberg of what is to come. There are those who claim that the financial cost of saving Eskom is too high, but surely the cost of violent unrest and political instability is far higher.

Hlubi-Majola is a former journalist and currently the Numsa National Spokesperson

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Green capitalism is not the solution to South Africas energy crisis - News24

Rwanda has the most effective government among low-income countries globally and across mainland Africa, according to thesecond Chandler Good Government Index, released Thursday, April 28.

The annual index, published by the Singapore-based non-profit Chandler Institute of Governance (CIG), is built around the notion that every country deserves good leadership, sound policy and effective institutions, as well as systems that work.

Based on over 50 open data sources, the index measures government capabilities and outcomes across 104 countries (about 90 per cent of the worlds population).

One of the insights that emerged from this years index, it says, is the close relationship between good governance and social mobility which it describes as the extent to which socio-economic circumstances at birth influence a persons future status and prosperity.

Our findings suggest that good governance not ideology, income-level, or geography is what determines the extent to which countries create opportunities for their people to rise on the basis of their creativity, work ethic, and contribution, the report says.

Countries that score highest on the CGGI (Chandler Good Government Index) also have the highest levels of social mobility, the report says.

It shows the importance of investing in enhancing the capabilities of public servants and the structures they operate within, to achieve a better and more sustainable future, reads part of a statement.

The top 15 African countries:

The index focuses on seven pillars: Leadership and Foresight; Robust Laws and Policies; Strong Institutions; Financial Stewardship; Attractive Marketplace; Global Influence and Reputation; and Helping People Rise.

Rwanda emerged the second best-performing country in Africa and 55thglobally. Mauritius, ranked 38thglobally, tops Africa. Botswana (60) completes Africas top three, with Morocco (64), South Africa (70), Senegal (71), Tunisia (72), Egypt (73), Ghana (73) and Namibia (78) making Africas top 10.

Finland tops the world, followed by Switzerland, Singapore, Denmark and Netherlands in that order. Norway, Sweden, Germany, New Zealand and the United Kingdom complete the top 10.

Rwanda performed strongest under the Leadership and Oversight pillar, ranking 17thglobally, while it also performed relatively strongly in capability to serve as an Attractive Marketplace, emerging 28thoverall. But it performed poorly on Global Influence and Reputation (91st), generally reflecting Africas trend. Rwanda ranked 49thin Financial Stewardship, 57thin Robust Laws and Policies, 63rdunder the Strong Institutions pillar, and 79thin its capability with regard to Helping People Rise.

Rwandas skills development approach

In particular, the 132-page report takes note of Rwandas strides in upskilling its workforce to meet new demands and to attract foreign investments.

For many years, the Rwandan government has worked to create conditions favourable to foreign investment, and to position the country as an attractive market for investment and business in East Africa. These efforts continued even during the pandemics initial impact, the report reads in part. Decades of good governance since the 1990s have led to successful policies addressing economic and development issues that have enabled inclusion in the workforce and nurtured a skilled and capable workforce for a range of industries.

A National Strategy for Transformation has also sought to bolster foreign direct investment and set Rwanda on a course for steady gains into the future, it says.

The countrys National Skills Development and Employment Promotion Strategy, along with its predecessor the National Employment Program, align with the broader national development strategy, building skills and promoting employment to support economic transformation.

Structured across 11 schemes, the Strategy connects enterprises and public agencies, increasing opportunities to help close skills gaps. By matching skill supply and demand, policymakers aim to support those already in the workforce, as well as young people entering it, in particular those enrolled in technical and vocational education and tertiary education, the report says.

The rankings of Mauritius, Rwanda, and Botswana by pillar:

This, it adds, represents a proactive and integrated approach to bolstering the nations workforce as a key factor in attracting foreign direct investment and strengthening the small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that make up a majority of firms in the Rwandan economy.

Covid-19 response was swift and methodical

The Covid-19 pandemic presented a formidable challenge, it says. Rwandas tourism industry, which had been witnessing steady growth, was devastated by the global collapse in travel. The governments response to this crisis was swift and methodical.

Rwandas Chamber of Tourism quickly started training programmes for those in the hospitality sector who were placed on forced leave, it says. The training enabled participants to acquire future-oriented skills, remain employable, and reintegrate into the workforce.

The governments skills development approach focused on supporting SMEs, and enabling linkages with European and African investors.

The report also acknowledges Rwanda's open-door migration regime, stating that the country took steps to leverage immigration policies to encourage the in-flow of highly skilled workers to fill demand gaps, with immigrants tending to enter high-skilled occupations at a faster rate.

In 2021, the country also opened up citizenship to anyone with special skills or talents determined to be in demand or of national interest, it adds.

To attract foreign direct investment, the report says, the Rwandan government developed the Kigali Innovation City (KIC) in 2020, a commercial zone inspired by Silicon Valley, to promote development across technology and biotech firms in partnership with private investors and major universities.

In tandem, it also developed the Kigali International Financial Centre (KFIC) to position Kigali as a premier financial centre, and established a framework of laws and regulations to promote the development of talent and the creation of leading technologies.

The new policies, the index says, promote the growth of start-up and medium-sized enterprises while appealing to investors in high-tech industries through transparent schemes that incentivise the management and governance of investments.

The KIC and the KIFC, backed by a new investment law launched, in 2021, herald for Rwanda a new development approach that promotes a diverse private sector and start-up ecosystem while growing the relevant talent pool.

These, along with further support measures such as adjustments to taxation, interest rates, and labour laws, set Rwanda on a durable course for the long-term attraction and retention of both talent and investment.

Rwandas progress and decisiveness in response to rapidly changing circumstances, including the pandemic, signal the benefits of well-coordinated, mutually reinforcing policies as key expressions of effective governance, the index reads in part.

An enduring source of competitive advantage

The 2022 CGGI shows that countries with good governance were better prepared for the Covid-19 pandemic, conducted more tests per capita, and generally experienced fewer excess deaths per capita, the non-profit says in the statement.

Government capabilities are an enduring source of competitive advantage for nations. These capabilities include systems, institutions, processes, and skills elements that take time to improve and build up, Wu Wei Neng, Executive Director, Chandler Institute of Governance, says in the statement. Once developed and strengthened, government capabilities are not easily eroded in the short-term, and can support governments through brief periods of instability or crisis.

The top 20 countries globally:

Ed-Olowo-Okere of the Governance Global Practice at the World Bank said thatIn the absence of good governance, countries may not be able to formulate good policies. Even when governments adopt good policies, without good governance they will struggle with gaps in implementation that derail intended outcomes. This is especially true in Africa where poor governance has affected development outcomes, resulting in a high concentration of people living below the poverty line.

According to the report, effective government capabilities are closely linked to better outcomes for citizens.

It cites Rule of Law, Property Rights, and Anti-Corruption capabilities as the cornerstones upon which trust-based societies and economies are built.

These three capabilities are essential factors in determining good governance, and sturdy foundations for national development and flourishing. Their presence suggests several other healthy behaviours and processes are being implemented ones that prevent money from being siphoned, for instance, or the law being selectively applied.

The index established that there is a moderate relationship between good governance and Covid-19 outcomes.

Well-governed countries had fewer excess deaths from Covid-19 than poorly governed countries, the report says.

Leadership makes a difference. What public sector leaders decide, do, or say impacts public trust in government. Good leaders create and sustain cultures of integrity, competence and service. They have a clear sense of medium- and longer-term pathways for their government and country. They cultivate the foresight needed to anticipate emerging challenges and opportunities.

jmunyaneza@newtimesrwanda.com

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Rwanda most effective low-income country - report | The New Times - The New Times

So, youve submitted your dissertation, your final-year tenancy lease is coming to an end, and your final trip to Jason Donervan is on the horizon. What now? With over fifteen years of education already under their belts, many graduates are asking themselves, Whats one more?. Thats right, its time to start your last-minute application for the infamous panic masters.

Youre not the only one. Since the 2015/16 academic year, the number of students going on to pursue taught postgraduate courses has been continuously increasing 2020/21 saw a 16 per cent increase in enrolments for masters taught courses compared to the previous academic year.

In 201920, 40.5 per cent of postgraduate students at UUK member institutions (Universities UK) were from outside the UK. These numbers have only been exacerbated since the government launched the Graduate immigration routefor international students last year. This visa allows international students to remain in the UK and work for two years after they successfully complete a bachelors or postgraduate course.

Admissions expert Mary Curnock Cook said the rise is also in part due to a collapse in confidence in the graduate employment market. Under-25s took the brunt of pandemic related unemployment, and in 2020 only 18 per cent of graduating students secured jobs, compared with an average of 60 per cent in a normal year.

The post-Covid graduate job market is a murky, overcrowded and shrinking pool that many final-year students feel unprepared for. The perception that employers expect graduates to have transferable, experiential skills before they even enter the workplace has left many students citing a lack of experience, practical skills, and vacancies as significant barriers.

English graduate Issy originally had plans to enter the publishing sector, but she told Epigram that shes now waiting for decisions from postgraduate admissions teams: The search for a graduate job honestly felt completely hopeless. There were so few roles in comparison to the number of applicants, and a lot of them were asking for the type of relevant experience that Ive just never been able to find.

Many so-called entry-level graduate jobs now seem to require up to three years of prior experience in a work environment. As the unlucky victims of the pandemic-stricken university experience who lost out on CV-boosting internships and in-person work experience, workforce newcomers may feel theyre already at a massive disadvantage.

Issy further explained I didnt want to end up in a job that completely deviated from my career plans, and I didnt want to put financial pressure on my parents by moving home unemployed. By March it seemed like doing a masters in a subject I at least know I enjoy was my best option.

If an undergraduate degree and motivation alone are no longer cutting it, final year students might need something more to guarantee their entry into the world of graduate employment. That might be relevant internships, or the connections to navigate a bewildering application process without being quickly eliminated by an algorithm. But not everyone has access to these advantages.

Whilst the comfortable route of further education might therefore look appealing, particularly in a time of economic turbulence, the question of whether postgraduate study is a worthwhile investment still remains: is a panic masters going to open doors for you, or are you just postponing the inevitable?

If future job security is your concern, the good news is that research indicates masters study does have a career benefit - a Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) report from 2020 suggests that postgraduates earn on average 18 per cent more than first degree holders, six months after graduation. So, a relevant masters degree could give you the competitive edge amongst a crowded cohort of candidates, demonstrating your ability to commit to a period of intense study.

In fact, the UK Commission for Employment and Skills predicted in 2015 that roughly 1 in 7 jobs are likely to require a postgraduate degree by 2022.

One explanation for the growing desirability of postgraduate qualifications is that increased enrolment may have diluted the value of first degrees. In the past, candidates with undergraduate degrees were more expensive to hire because their qualifications were relatively rare - in 1990, only 19.3 per cent of the population participated in higher education. But thats no longer the case. With almost half of the UK population now having a first degree, has the masters become the new undergraduate?

And there could be further, more alarming knock-on effects. Postgraduate fees are market-driven rather than government set - that means when demand goes up, fees go up. The long-term impact of graduates seeking out further study to boost their employability could be that rising fees make the possibility of further study unfeasible for students from lower economic backgrounds. Since a high unemployment rate creates a law of supply and demand that works in the employers favour, this may have a detrimental effect for lower-income students applying for roles where postgraduate degrees are desirable. The socio-economic impact of a job market where postgraduate degrees accessible only to higher-income students give the upper hand in the eyes of the employer could be drastic.

The costs of higher education are already out of reach for many, and the financial commitment of a postgraduate course is certainly not to be overlooked. The Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) reports that large increases in enrolment from 2016/17 coincided with the introduction of postgraduate loans for masters students.

But with the average cost of a taught masters degree standing at 8,740, and the government loan offering up to 11,836, a panic masters may not be a tangible option for grads who cant afford to cover their living costs. Its not uncommon though for universities to guarantee fee reductions on postgraduate courses for their current undergraduate students - Bristol offers an alumni discount of twenty-five per cent for recent graduates.

If you can afford it, taking on a masters degree could be the short-term solution to your impending graduate disorientation. However, as more and more graduates turn to postgraduate study in the face of career uncertainty, the lasting impact on both the job market and the higher education sector remains to be seen.

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The 'Panic Masters': is postgraduate study the solution to your career crisis? - Epigram

There has been a staggering increase in LGBTQ+ hate crimes over the past five years, which, in England and Wales, have risen year on year. Homophobic hate crimes recorded by the police have tripled since 2014/2015, while transphobic hate crimes have quadrupled in the same period. Because LGBTQ+ people are often reluctant to report these crimes, the real figures are likely to be even higher. This increase cant be attributed to any single factor. Hate crimes tend to happen more during times of socio-economic turbulence; when people are angry, minorities get scapegoated, which is why weve also seen an attendant increase in crimes linked to race and disability.

Hate crimes can function as a kind of retaliatory violence against social progress, and they are often directly downstream from government policy. Within the same timeframe, right-wing authoritarianism has become resurgent in Britain, which is a worldview that goes hand in hand with discrimination. But if were talking about the rise in anti-LGBTQ+ violence specifically, the anti-trans or gender-critical movement surely deserves a portion of the blame. It stands to reason that if you flood the media including online platforms with vitriolic attacks on a given minority group, this is going to make them more vulnerable. Moreover, the specific way that the anti-trans movement demonises gender variation is something which poses harm to all LGBTQ+ people which makes it all the more frustrating that a small contingent of cis gay men and lesbians are continuing to propagate it. What these people fail to understand is that, sometimes, transphobia and homophobia really arent all that different.

Its true that gay people do frequently get abused in the street for expressing intimacy with their partners in public, and that discrimination based on sexuality alone is still a big problem. But in public, we are less at risk because of who we are, innately, and who we are attracted to, and more because of how we act and what we look like both of which relate to gender. If someone attacks you because you look gay, that has very little to do with who you sleep with. Its entirely possible to be the victim of a hate crime while youre walking around and minding your own business and this has far more to do with gender expression than sexuality (as it relates to either sexual or romantic behaviour). Its a popular line that the two concepts are entirely distinct, but in reality they collapse together all the time.

I recently read the playwright Travis Alabanzas forthcoming nonfiction book, None of the Above: Reflections on Life Beyond the Binary (published by Canongate this August). In it, Alabanza depicts how ruthlessly gender nonconformity is policed in public; the way that harassment forms a near-constant backdrop for gender-nonconforming people, and how suffocating this can be to live through on a daily basis. Theres actually not much of a clear line between gender and sexuality, Alabanza tells Dazed. This is why we often misunderstand whats happening with transphobic and homophobic violence. With the latter, we place it as a form of discrimination based on sexuality, which can sometimes be the case. But I think the majority of the time whats happening is a punishment based on gender. What it stems from, in my opinion, is a correction back to the gender binary: when people see others being free from the expectations which they believe are a contract, violence starts to happen.

Because of this, homophobia and transphobia cant always be delineated as two distinct forms of bigotry. To offer an obvious example, and one which is true for lots of gay men: I wasnt out in my early years of high school, nor was I going around getting off with guys or wearing T-shirts emblazoned with the rainbow flag. In terms of behaviour that could be classed as gay, I wasnt doing much of anything, really, other than acting a little bit fruity but this was still enough to get bullied. Later in life, just about every instance of homophobic abuse Ive experienced has been occasioned by simply vibing in a way that was read as feminine, rather than doing anything explicitly gay, such as engaging in public affection with someone of the same gender (although needless to say, this does also inspire violence.) Because a significant proportion of homophobia is really about gender expression, its impossible to whip up fury against the trans community without this eventually backfiring on cis gay people. You only need to look at the situation now unfolding in the US, where LGBTQ+ people of all stripes are being smeared en masse as groomers, degenerates and perverts, to realise that this rhetoric cant be targeted with precision at one subset of the community.

A society where we are policing each others gender, which is fundamentally what they want to enact, leads to violence for all of us Travis Alabanza

To be clear, this is not the only basis on which we should fight transphobia the fact that it harms trans people, and that it is so evidently cruel, is reason enough. Leaning too hard into the watch out gay men, theyll be coming for us next! framework risks being a little self-involved; on social media, it can sometimes feel as though were a little too keen to position ourselves as the protagonists of a dramatic moment in history which is still primarily impacting other people. We should extend solidarity because its our natural human inclination and we should fight for that, and not for something as boring as at some point this could affect me, says Alabanza.

But at the same time, there is merit to the idea that its in the self-interest of cis gay people, and indeed everyone, to support trans liberation. In a sense, theyre already coming for you, says Alabanza. The gender binary is already harming us and the anti-trans movement is creating further harm. A society where we are policing each others gender, which is fundamentally what they want to enact, leads to violence for all of us. As has been made clear time and time again, you dont need to be trans to be the victim of transphobia. The scores of butch cis women whove been challenged in public bathrooms over the last few years can attest to that.

Maybe the gay people pushing anti-trans narratives are aware of this, and simply dont care because they think it will never affect them personally. But gender nonconformity can be extremely subtle and still draw negative attention. If youre a man, you dont need to be sashaying down the road in a fabulous, sequinned pantsuit to be perceived as feminine: I often hear about masculine-presenting guys being subject to homophobic abuse in public simply because something about the way they moved or spoke rubbed someone up the wrong way.

A lot of gay people with anti-trans views seem anxious that being lumped together with a more marginalised group will expose them to greater risk. But its impossible to bargain your way out of the fact that significant segments of the straight world still consider you a degenerate. Handing over trans people on a sacrificial platter isnt going to appease them for long. The people who would attack you in the street are likely to be significantly less invested in the gay-trans distinction than you are. If youre a cis gay person concerned with your own safety, the wiser strategy would be standing against the cruel ideologies which oppress all LGBTQ+ people, and endanger even the most conservative of gay men. As Alabanza says, the punitive enforcement of the gender binary is something which impoverishes us all.

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Homophobia and transphobia have more in common than you think - Dazed

As momentous as Russias invasion of Ukraine is, the most strategically important event in recent weeks was the global economic war between Russia and the U.S. and its allies. Russia, however, has been preparing to confront the West and challenge the Western socio-economic model for a long time.

Russias strategic interests in Ukraine are well-known. The geography and history of Russia compel its leaders to create and preserve a buffer between Moscow and the major powers in Western Europe, and to ensure access to the Black Sea. Ukraine is crucial to both goals. But beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin perceives the eastward expansion of Western influence, including into Russia, to be a modern invasion by stealth that threatens the Russian regime.

It is not Western organizations such as NATO and the European Union that challenge the Kremlin, but the socio-economic model that enabled the West to win the Cold War and that enticed Eastern Europeans to want to join the West. When he became president of Russia in 2000, in the wake of the Soviet Unions collapse and the economic crisis of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin inherited a broken country. Many Russians contemplated joining the European Union, hoping that alignment with the West would bring a better life.

The priority for the Russian establishment was to stabilize and rebuild the country. Putin just wanted to survive politically. Following the example of past successful Russian leaders, he centralized power. Knowing he needed stability and growth to slow the rate of emigration and address Russias poor demographics, Putin sought to make Europe economically dependent on Moscow. Looking back at history and the current power balance, he identified Germany as the lynchpin of his strategy of dependence.

Russian ties to Germany were key to establishing ties to the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russias strategy in Europe.

Russian ties to Germany were key to establishing ties to the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russias strategy in Europe. Russia opened up its economy to Western investment, established links throughout the Continent and tried to understand the inner workings of EU bureaucracy. It established close business ties with Italy, France and later Hungary, and built a political network that would help expand its influence in Europe. For Moscow, learning about European vulnerabilities was just as important as building up its economy and growing Russia into a stable economic power.

The Kremlin also campaigned to join the World Trade Organization to establish deeper relationships with the worlds biggest economic players. In the process, it benefited from foreign investments in Russia and learned how the global economy works, building partnerships with not just Western economies but also other economic powers. The only problem was that China, its major ally against the West, was not seeing the accelerated growth it hoped for and was still very much dependent on the U.S. market, giving Beijing limited ability to counter U.S. interests in the world and forcing Russia to keep its focus on Europe.

Average Russians saw improvements in their standard of living under Putin. In major Russian cities, life was similar to that in the West. However, when it became a major player in the energy market, Russia also increased its exposure to global economic cycles. The European economic crisis of the 2010s sent shivers through Moscow. Russias economy remained fragile overall, and the gap between urban and rural areas remained dangerously high, potentially threatening Putins control.

At the same time, the West offered an attractive model to rival Russias. It wasnt so much the growing Western influence in Russias buffer zone that bothered the Kremlin, but the fact that ordinary Russians might look at Eastern Europe and see a better model for political organization and economic growth.

Then the pandemic hit. The Russian president apparently feared that the economic insecurity wrought by COVID-19 could threaten his countrys economic security and stability. As the worst socio-economic effects of the pandemic faded, action against the West became urgent. From the Kremlins point of view, this was a unique moment. The U.S. has been trying to reduce its presence in Europe and instead focus on the Indo-Pacific and domestic problems. In other words, from the Kremlins point of view, the trans-Atlantic alliance and the European Union appear weak. Most important, Russias leaders believe they have gained sufficient knowledge of the way the West works and can fight it effectively.

Russia has been preparing to confront the West since at least the early 2000s. Besides stockpiling foreign reserves, Moscow constructed trade blocs and deepened relations with projects like the Eurasian Economic Union. In Europe, it enticed Germany to become dependent on Russian natural gas, which as is clear today made it extremely difficult for Europe to cut off Russian energy imports. Shifting from gas would require Europe to build new infrastructure a costly, time-consuming process.

The close German-Russian partnership also benefited the Kremlins Europe strategy in other ways. To give a practical example, the EU had plans to make the Danube River fully navigable through the establishment of additional canals, increasing Central Europes connection with the Black Sea. This would have given Europe more leverage against Russia at the moment, when the war in Ukraine has forced the rerouting of commercial flows from the Black Sea to much more expensive land routes. Instead, positive relations with Moscow made the project seem unnecessary, and it faded away.

It is no coincidence that after 2012, the first full year that Nord Stream 1 was operational, Europe became much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian.

It is no coincidence that after 2012, the first full year that Nord Stream 1 was operational, Europe became much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian. There was simply no interest in Germany to carry them out. It is also no coincidence that relations between the U.S. and Germany have cooled over that time. The U.S. needed Germany to lead Europe, or at least maintain neutrality, to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in Europe as the U.S. drew back. The fact that Russia joined the World Trade Organization in 2012 gave it even more leverage in the world economy.

It is also worth noting that the Kremlin used personal relationships to shore up its influence. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was tapped to lead Nord Stream 1. Nord Stream AG also hired former Finnish Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen as a consultant to speed up the permit process in Finland. Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi served on the board of Delimobil, a Russian car-sharing service. Former Finnish Prime Minister Esko Aho was on the board of Russias largest bank, Sberbank. Former Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern resigned from the board of Russias state-owned railway company in the early days of the war in Ukraine, while another ex-chancellor, Wolfgang Schussel, remained on the board of Russias Lukoil.

This is just a short list of top politicians, all of whom had at least some influence over their countrys foreign policy discussions. They have certainly been useful to Russian economic growth and the advance of Russias economic strategy in Europe.

Working closely with Europeans for the past two decades has enabled Russia to learn what is important for the stability of their countries. It has also helped the Kremlin better understand their political agendas and support causes that work to its advantage. For example, Russia enthusiastically supported many green policies, like Germanys decision to give up nuclear power which translated into greater reliance on Russian gas. And Russia has openly supported populist parties throughout Europe and effectively used information warfare, all in an attempt to destabilize and ultimately divide Europe.

Globally, Russia has maintained close relations with traditional enemies and competitors of the West. Joining the WTO gave it a stronger position on the global stage, which is used to advance the influence and interests of emerging global players, including the BRICS countries, which also include Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Though the results were modest, Russia promoted the group as an alternative to the West and continued to focus on building ties to China and India, establishing links that it hoped would withstand in a potential confrontation with the West, which were seeing play out today.

To counter the current sanctions, it has looked to China for help. The Eurasian Economic Union gives it proxies for continuing to do business with the world. At the same time, Russias presence in the Middle East and parts of Africa helps it keep the price of oil high high enough that it can keep paying its bills. Influence in the Middle East and the Sahel, two highly unstable but resource-rich areas, also gives Russia more leverage over the world economy.

Russian strategy certainly has its weaknesses, but Russia has options in countering the West.

In building its network, Russia has tried to focus on economics and enhancing weaknesses in the global network. It expanded its influence abroad, making sure the dependencies it was encouraging were strong enough to give it leverage but lose enough to allow its withdrawal when necessary. Russian strategy certainly has its weaknesses, but Russia has options in countering the West during the current global economic war. Supporting EU fragmentation through its economic ties in Europe and using the knowledge of European politics that its gained over the years are likely the most important elements of its strategy. The moment European citizens feel the repercussion of Western sanctions is when the bloc will become more fragile, which will allow Russia to exploit the EUs weaknesses.

The world is witnessing its first economic world war of the modern era. The rules are undefined, and the global economy is complex, meaning collateral damage is unavoidable and frequently unpredictable. Slowly, we are becoming aware of the repercussions the sanctions on Russia are having on the global economy. Less clear are the instruments that Russia can employ against the West. How this will change the world is a mystery. All we can do is look back at what Russia has prepared for and guess what could come next. This is only the beginning.

Antonia Colibasanuis chief operating officer of Geopolitical Futures.

More: This global-conflict expert sees a bleak end for the Ukraine war and for Putin

Also read: American foreign policy needs radical surgery

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Putin has launched the first economic world war, and the EU and the West are his targets - MarketWatch

An analysis of the Dalit movement in the country today reveals a paradox. On the one hand, Dalit parties are in electoral decline as sections of the Dalits have moved away to non-Dalit parties, impacting the unity and strength of the Dalit movement. On the other hand, Dalit assertion remains strong, as seen from the strident reaction to atrocities in recent years and emergence of organizations/movements led by new Dalit leaders, such as the Bhim Army in Uttar Pradesh (UP) by Chandrasekhar Azad or Ravan; the Una Dalit Aytachar Ladat Samiti (Una Dalit Atrocity Fight Committee) by Jignesh Mevani in Gujarat; and the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (Coalition of Exploited Bahujans) by Prakash Ambedkar in Maharashtra. These organizations appeal to both the younger educated generation and the rural smaller Dalit groups who, disappointed with older Dalit parties, are moving away to non-Dalit parties. While these changes are manifest in parties such as the Republican Party of India in Maharashtra and the Liberation Panthers in Tamil Nadu, UP provides the best example of this phenomenon as it is the state where Dalit assertion over the last few decades has determined national politics.

The 1980s and 1990s witnessed the rise of political consciousness and strong movements among the Dalits in UP, leading to a dominance of lower-caste parties and identity politics that drove both electoral and mass politics in the Hindi heartland. National parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC), traditionally viewed as Manuwadi (upper-caste) parties, went into decline, and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), institutionalized as a party espousing social justice, self-respect and dignity, was able to capture state power. The 2000s, in contrast, have witnessed the collapse of the BSP and the revival and strengthening of the BJP. The BSP, which gained a majority in the 2007 assembly elections, failed to win even a single seat in the Lok Sabha election in 2014, nineteen seats in the 2017 assembly elections4 and ten seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, though it managed to gain around 20 per cent of the votes each time. While there have been defections from the BSP since 2014, in January 2020, a large number of party workers in eastern UP joined the Samajwadi Party (SP). These developments have led commentators to point to the collapse of the BSP, arguing that Mayawati no longer commands the loyalty of Dalit voters.

However, such analyses merely focus on the electoral fortunes of a significant Dalit party. In the 2000s, the Dalit movement in the country entered a new phase and acquired a more complex character. In contrast to the 1990s, it is experiencing internal fragmentation, which has created uncertainty and ambiguity over both ideology and action. Two significant developments have been responsible for this. First, the waning of identity politics and a shift from the desire for social justice to aspiration impacted by the twin forces of globalization and cultural modernization, creating a divide between the better-off middle class and the poorer, marginalized section of the Dalits. Second, the revival of the BJP under a new-generation leadership, and its promise of economic development and cultural inclusion within the saffron fold, has attracted the lower jatis (sub-castes) and created an ideological divide between the Ambedkarite or pro-BSP and Hindutvawadi or pro-BJP Dalits. The lack of cohesion within the Dalit movement in Uttar Pradesh is also visible in the shifting modes of political action: support to the BJP in the 2014 national elections, but in more recent years, disillusionment, antagonism and strident opposition to the BJP.

In this situation, the earlier ideology and forms of mobilization used by the older Dalit leaders no longer seem to be of appeal. Having achieved a modicum of political empowerment, identity and self-respect in the 1990s, the Dalits today are in search of a political party/movement that can offer them economic betterment. It is on these twin developments, of decline and regeneration, and how they are shaping the future of Dalit politics in the country, that this essay focuses.

In the 1990s, India witnessed the gradual emergence of a small, but influential, young, educated and politically conscious Dalit middle class. This new class reached a critical mass precisely when the Indian polity experienced globalization, moving towards a market-oriented economy, and it represents a different strand in the Dalit movement as it has evolved over the last two decades. While Dalit movements and parties such as the BSP mobilized on issues of socio-political empowerment, such as identity, dignity and self-respect, the rising middle-class Dalit intellectuals have emphasized the need for economic empowerment through a variety of new means, representing the rise of middle-class activism among Dalits. These new aspirations are best exemplified in the Dalit Agenda formulated at the Bhopal Conference in January 2002, which advocated new policies such as Supplier Diversity to create Dalit entrepreneurs. The authors of the Dalit Agenda argued that under the traditional policies of affirmative action and state welfarism, the Dalits have remained mere recipients of welfare, have remained landless/asset-less, below the line of poverty, without a share in the capital in the economy and unable to improve their socio-economic status. Only a tiny elite section of the community or creamy layer has been able to improve their educational attainments and economic status, as well as enter into high-paying jobs in the government, various professions, the media, arts and, increasingly, the private sector.

Arguably, even the extension of reservation of jobs to the private sector would help only this small elite, which is why the Dalit Agenda argued for the need for the democratization of control over capital and a strong Dalit business/industrial class, which could participate equally in the national economy.

The setting up of a Dalit Chamber of Commerce, too, has been the work of this new class. It is also visible in a spate of academic writings an attempt to reinterpret Dalit history and politics by a new generation of Dalit scholars, examples being Suraj Yengde, Chinnaiah Jangam and Sambaiah Gundimeda.Simultaneously, the smaller and poorer Dalits, also aspiring for upward mobility, have moved away from traditional parties. There is considerable disillusionment over the failure of the BSP to put forward a socio-economic vision or agenda to address the specific problems of deprivation faced by the Dalits. After the capture of power by the BSP in UP, with a majority in the 2007 assembly election, the Dalits had expected not only self- respect but also improvement in their material situation. While there was some improvement in their socio-economic situation, it did not meet their enhanced expectations. Mayawati is no longer respected as before. Her shift from a Dalit-oriented to a sarvajan policy was viewed to have primarily helped the Jatavs (the dominant sub-caste among the Dalits) and the upper castes who had helped her gain power in 2007. Furthermore, the BSP, since the mid-1990s, because of its preoccupation with gaining state power, has not been a democratizing force as before, when it had moved downwards to mobilize the smaller, poorer Dalit groups, particularly in the backward regions in UP, who have recently entered the mainstream. Consequently, large sections today view it as a purely Jatav party.

The process of modernization often tends to proceed unevenly, benefiting some sections more than others, leading to conflict and competition for political power, economic benefits and social status among social groups both within and across different ethnic categories. Today, the poorer and marginalized Dalit sub-castes who are undergoing a process of cultural modernization influenced by the Hindutva ideology aspire to be part of the larger Hindu identity. BJPRSS leaders have worked silently among these groups, which began to enter the democratic arena, unearthing local histories and myths by which they could link them to Hindutva. For example, the attempt to link three Dalit communities in eastern UP, the Pasis, Musahars and Nishads, with the Ramayana. In a recent study, Badri Narayan has comprehensively shown and provided rich insights into how the Sangh and its vast network of cultural and social outfits have been refashioning its modes of mobilization, thereby assimilating the Dalits, OBCs, tribals and other marginalized communities. The RSS has made the Hindutva meta-narrative appeal to a large section of Indians, particularly the lower castes. Hence, what we are witnessing in UP is politically induced cultural change, the process by which political elites select some aspects of a groups culture, attach new value and meaning to them, and use them as symbols to mobilize the group.It is this fragmentation within the Dalit community and the highly divisive strategies of mobilization used by the BJP that led to as much as 45 per cent, 38.9 per cent and 48 per cent of the non-Jatavs voting for the BJP, in the 2014, 2017 assembly and 2019 Lok Sabha elections respectively. This division helped the BJP obtain high seat and vote percentages at the Centre and in UP, while the BSP lost considerable Dalit support.

Excerpted from The Dalit Truth (Rethinking India series): The Battles for Realizing Ambedkars Vision, Edited by K. Raju, with permission from Penguin Random House India.

(Sudha Pai is a well-known political scientist, author and columnist. Views expressed are personal)

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New Phase in Dalit Politics: Crisis or Regeneration? - Outlook India

WAR OF WORDS

NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet is reportedly backing Liberal candidate for Warringah Katherine Deves, who is under fire for anti-trans rhetoric including a claim that half of all males with trans identities are sex offenders. The Australian ($) reports this morning that Perrottet sent Prime Minister Scott Morrison a text at the weekend saying he supported Deves campaign to bar trans women from womens sport reportedly calling it the right approach. Deves has apologised in recent days after claiming that transgender children were surgically mutilated and comparing the treatment of anti-trans spokespeople to Nazi trials.

Perrottets reported support is somewhat at odds with his Treasurer Matt Kean, who called for Deves disendorsement over her bigotry, and federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, who slammed Deves comments as insensitive, inappropriate, and unacceptable. Interestingly, NSW Labor Leader Chris Minns told 2BG yesterday he thinks young male adolescents have a competitive advantage because of testosterone, The Daily Telegraph ($) reports. But is that true? Transgender athlete and researcher Joanna Harper says the equal playing field is a myth: every elite athlete has advantages (thats why theyre elite), and besides, many trans athletes suppress their testosterone for 12 months before competing, SBS reports.

It comes as the Australian Christian Lobby is targeting Liberals like Trent Zimmerman, Dave Sharma, and Bridget Archer who crossed the floor over Morrisons religious discrimination bill, Guardian Australia reports. The Lobby is papering electorates with a graphic of MPs driving a wrecking ball into religious schools, and some constituents say theyve received automated calls about it. To jog your memory, the trio plus Katie Allen and Fiona Martin voted against the bill, which made it lawful to expel trans students from school.

Choose what you pay and your level of coverage.

About two-thirds of all COVID-19 deaths in Australia have occurred this year, Guardian Australia reports. That means, in four months, our death toll from COVID-19 is already more than double what it was in 2020 and 2021 combined. OK to the figures: so far 6786 people in Australia have died of COVID-19 since March 2020 when the pandemic began and 4547 of them happened in 2022, according to government data. In WA, most of the COVID-related deaths are happening in aged care homes and palliative care, WA Today reports. Of more than 300,000 WA cases and 96 deaths since the start of the year, only 28 people were in intensive care. A spokesperson for WA Health says the average age of a person dying from COVID was 75 years old.

On Tuesday, aged care workers in WA joined their colleagues in Queensland and South Australia in voting to take industrial action including strikes over pay and conditions, The West ($) continues.Wages in aged care are around $23-$25 an hour Labor Leader Anthony Albanese used his budget reply to promise a $2.5 billion aged-care package that would include a submission to get staff a pay rise, whereas Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he will back a pay rise if ordered to by the Fair Work Commission. Speaking of Albo hes officially kicking off Labors election campaign in Perth, the first time any party has launched a campaign in the west, The West ($) reports.

The government is deeply disappointed that the Solomon Islands signed a security pact with China that could see a Chinese naval base less than 2000km off our coast, ABC reports. Minister for the Pacific Zed Seselja met withPrime Minister Manasseh Sogavare last week to convince him it was a dangerous idea and urge him not to sign to no avail.Foreign Minister Marise Payne says the deal is murky and puts the stability of the region at risk.

China is telling us to butt out and stop creating drama, and the Solomon Islands says it wont let China build a military base there but the US Department says the signed pact doesnt rule PRC military deployment out, and Australia says the deal was negotiated and signed in secret, Guardian Australia continues. Indeed US Indo-Pacific chief Kurt Campbell will soon touch down in Honiara to lobby against the deal, the SMH continues. Stay tuned I guess.

In 2015, American man Tom Turcich left his house for a walk a walk hes still on today, along with his furry companion, Savannah. The pairs epic walking journey has crossed six continents, 37 countries and some 45,000km, making him one of just 10 people to have walked quite literally around the world (Savannah is the first dog to do so). Tom was 26 when he set off on his journey with just a sleeping bag, an extra pair of shoes, and a few essentials he met Savannah, his rescue pooch, at a Texan shelter shortly after. Ever since, Tom and Savannah have been held up at knife-point in Panama, stuck for months under lockdown in Azerbaijan, and attended a wedding of new friends in Uzbekistan.

Utterly exhausted just outside a border town in Argentina, Tom says his legs suddenly gave out from beneath him. Savannah promptly came and sat next to him, and rather than panic, he had a sudden moment of gratitude for the journey. And he says the kindness of strangers has moved him too truckers have stopped to give the pair oranges and water, and so many strangers have offered them accommodation. Its been an incredible experience, filled with a crazy amount of kindness, Tom says. Now, he is just 885km from his hometown, where he and Savannah will end their trip. Shes been a terrific companion, he says, trotting along for the 38.6 kilometres they walk eight hours a day, without complaint. And, he adds, her tail is always held high. Shes a true professional.

Wishing you some adventure during your Wednesday, big or small.

Im not going to allow her to be silenced, Im not going to allow her to be pushed aside as the pile on comes in to try and silence her. I will stand up with her, my team is standing up with her and we will make sure that she wont be silenced.

Scott Morrison

The prime minister is standing by his captains pick for Warringah, Katherine Deves, despite her resurfaced claims that transgender children are surgically mutilated and sterilised and (incorrect) claims half of the men who transitioned were sex offenders. She has since apologised. Morrison says he will not allow her to be silenced, but one might argue that Deves views seek to sideline and silence the entire trans community.

For country comparisons, economists use annual GDP growth, which is recorded for all advanced economies four times a year. We have the numbers for the 2021 December quarter for the 59 very highly developed countries listed bythe UNs Development Program(UNDP). These include allOECDmembers and mostInternational Monetary Fundadvanced economies. Australias modest 4.2% annual GDP growthranks43rd out of those 59 economies. Nowhere near leading the world.

The UK, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Singapore, Estonia, Poland, Hungary and Greece are all above 6%. Ireland, Israel, Malta, Chile, Slovenia, Croatia, Turkey and others are above 9%. The fine print in the Liberal chart says Dec 2019 to Dec 2021. Hmmm. So it picked an odd two-year time interval for which there is no readily available global database. Why?

Last week I wrote a story about JobSeeker. It was an attempt to analyse some data, but now I realise it was a bad take. I apologise for that and am writing this as a clarification High socio-economic areas saw a rise in JobSeeker recipients equal to low socio-economic areas.

I found this to be surprising because the socio-economic data measures disadvantage. The rules that made getting on JobSeeker during the pandemic easier have expired. So discovering that JobSeeker payments remain elevated in areas of socio-economic advantage was unexpected. An unexpected fact usually contains a grain of insight. My job was to find the insight. I failed.

Russian forces seize Kreminna in eastern Ukraine, says governor (Al Jazeera)

Myanmars health system is in collapse, obliterated by the regime (The New York Times)

Catalan president calls for investigation as spyware targets pro-independence leaders (The Guardian)

Sweden riots over Quran burning: What is happening? (Al Jazeera)

Auckland young people out of control as ram-raids ramp up across city (Stuff)

US judge throws out Biden mask mandate for planes and trains (BBC)

Macron allies warn victory not certain as poll lead over Le Pen grows (The Guardian)

At least one killed as police open fire at Sri Lanka protesters (Al Jazeera)

Crypto stocks perform worse than cryptocurrencies (The Wall Street Journal) ($)

Anti-trans rhetoric is nothing but a shameless grab for relevance Dale Sheridan (The SMH): The sad reality is that on most occasions when a trans person obtains a public platform, it has to be used to call out hate and fear. I feel sick to my stomach as I write these words as I brace for the onslaught of more hate as a result of my visibility. How do I even participate in a conversation where my mere existence is framed in so much prejudice? Saving womens sport from the dangerous and disgusting trans woman how do I even respond to this with any sort of logic?

A question Im often asked is: why are people attacking the trans community? I wish I knew. I often wonder how insecure someone must be for the existence of another person to trigger such discomfort and outrage. I struggle to rationalise the tirade of abuse Ive received on occasions once just walking to work and another occasion shopping at my local supermarket. This discomfort could explain the attempts of various laws and policies around the world seeking to ban the trans community from a range of daily settings: bathrooms, healthcare, sports and schools. Theyre a blatant tool to limit and prevent our participation in the community.

This economic model tipped the last 2 elections and its now pointing to a Coalition win Peter Martin (The Conversation): In the latest edition of theAustralian Economic Review, University of Queensland economist Hamish Greenop-Roberts applied the Cameron and Crosby model to the past four elections, the one Labor won in 2010 and the ones the Coalition won in 2013, 2016 and 2019. He found it picked the result three times out of four, putting it on a par with the polls and betting odds, which also got the result right three times out of four.

The crucial difference is the economic model got the results right in each of the past two elections something the others conspicuously failed to do. Asked this week what the economic model would predict for the current election, Greenop-Roberts notes that on one hand, unemployment is much lower than it was at start of this governments term (and far lower than was expected), which the model says should help it get re-elected. On the other hand, inflation is unusually high, which the model says would hurt.

Online

Labor spokesperson for Cities, Urban Infrastructure and Multicultural Affairs Andrew Giles will speak to the Property Councils Ken Morrison about opening borders, attracting skilled migrants, and rejuvenating CBDs in a webinar.

Rescheduled from yesterday, Guardian Australias Katharine Murphy and Essential Medias Pete Lewis will unpack the fortnights political news in a webinar for The Australia Institute.

Yuggera Country (also known as Brisbane)

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese will face off in the first leaders debate of the 2022 federal election.

Author Lison Mage will speak about her book, Act Before You overThink. Catch this one online too.

Kulin Nation Country (also known as Melbourne)

Crikey is an independent Australian-owned and run outfit. It doesnt enjoy the vast resources of the countrys main media organisations. We take seriously our responsibility to bear witness.

I hope you appreciate our reporting and consider supporting Crikeys work. Join now for your chance at election themed merch.

Peter FrayEditor-in-chief

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Crikey Worm: Following the leaders? - Crikey

The Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) was founded in 1978. Its predecessor, the Nigerian Association of University Teachers (NAUT), was formed in 1965 covering academic staff at the University of Ibadan, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, University of Ife and University of Lagos.

According to its founders, ASUU is a trade union whose objectives include regulation of relations between academic staff and employers, encouraging the participation of its members in the affairs of the university system and the nation, and protecting and advancing the socio-economic and cultural interests of the nation.

It is supposed to be a union of intellectuals seeking not only the socio-political and economic welfare interest of its members within the framework of promoting the cause of university education in Nigeria but the entire good of Nigerians and Nigeria.

The union came into prominence when it staged its first-ever strike and was proscribed by the military government of President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida on 7th August 1988, and all its property seized. This was because of the national strike it organised that year to get fair wages and university autonomy. Though the union was allowed to resume activities in 1990, it was again banned on 23rd August 1992, after another strike. An agreement was, however, reached on 3rd September 1992, that met several of the unions demands, including the right of workers to collective bargaining.

ASUU organized further strikes in 1994 and 1996 to protest against the dismissal of university teachers by the Sani Abacha military regime (Wikipedia, 2016).

If its first industrial action was in 1988, its longest was in 2020 when it downed tools for nine months. The lecturers, based on their unions aims and objectives to secure adequate funding, improved salary package, autonomy and academic freedom to curb brain drain and ensure the survival of the university system hinged their action on the lack of funding of universities and functionality of the Integrated Payment Portal System, arguing that IPPIS negates autonomy for universities.

On December 17, 2013, ASUU declared a strike that lasted six months over the non-implementation of a 2009 agreement between it and the federal government, which was eventually called off after the latter agreed to some of its demands.

Yet a year after, the union still embarked on a one-week warning strike over the failure of the government to implement the 2009 Agreement and a 2013 MoU. According to the union, Many aspects of the 2013 MoU and the 2009 agreement with the federal government have either been unimplemented or despairingly handled. The agreements are payments of staff entitlements since December 2015, funding of universities for revitalisation, pension, TSA and university autonomy and renegotiation of the 2009 agreement.

But what are the October 2009 agreements reached between the federal government and ASUU after two years of negotiation between the lecturers and a government team appointed by the then education minister, Obiageli Ezekwesili? The government team was led by the then pro-chancellor, University of Ibadan, Gamaliel Onosode while ASUUs team was led by its then-president, Abdullahi Sule-Kano. The agreements reached included conditions of service for university lecturers, funding of universities, university autonomy and academic freedom, and other issues that required legislation to implement.

ASUU has frequently complained that agreeing with the federal government has often been a frustrating journey for our union. Protests and strikes often mark it and require a conscious and focused engagement. The 2001 agreement, which gave birth to the 2009 agreement, was not an exemption. The exception here is the personality leading the government negotiation team.

And so, after strikes in 2017 and 2018, and a period of calm from 2019, ASUU on Monday, November 17th, 2021, announced its plan to embark on another strike in three weeks if the federal government continued to renege on its agreement with it. The union had accused the federal government of failing to implement the agreement after it called off its nine-month strike in December 2020.

Even though, according to an article inDataphytemagazine, ASUU has spent one in every four days on strike in the past six years, it went for another one again on February 14, 2022, and since then, our students are still at home.

Naturally, students have been at the receiving end, and the worse hit is our educational system, of course. However, apart from the disastrous implications on our education system, ASUU strikes negatively impact our economy and may cause a lot of minor and serious crimes to be perpetrated by the fainthearted and those desperate for survival. I will take Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, and its economic importance as a case in point.

ABU Zaria has about 100,000 students. Assuming each student on the average spends N1,000 daily, that is N1 billion injected into the economy of Zaria and its environs. Markets will bubble, the transportation system will be fully engaged, social services will be on full throttle, production will increase, and employment opportunities will grow.

Without this capital injection into the economy of the environment, a lot of businesses and jobs, indirect and direct, that depended on primary services patronised by the students will collapse and many people will be at their wits end to make ends meet. Someone can easily tempt the fainthearted into crime and other vices to survive.

Where there is nothing to do to get by, and with a lack of education and vocational skills, it will not be far-fetched to see some youths joining the crime enterprise just to get paid. Even many educated ones with no means of livelihood can easily fall into that temptation.

This is not even considering the students; able-bodied youth, strong with vibrant brains and impressionable character; any long idleness can easily turn their minds into the proverbial devils workshop.

There are also serious implications of the governments policy of no work, no pay on the community. Perhaps statisticians, criminologists and psychologists may look at the numbers in terms of the rise and fall of crime during ASUU strikes and when schools are in full swing. This is because even during holidays you find students in school unlike when there is a strike.

Most likely,t he governments minders do not look at strikes, especially ASUU strikes, from this perspective. But the government needs to look at the security implications of whatever it does.

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Security Implications of ASUU Strikes, by Hassan Gimba - The Source

Confronted with COVID-19, high-income Gulf countries have done better than most of their middle- and low-income neighbours; Jordan and Morocco are also positive exceptions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit already stagnant and macroeconomically fragile economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) through lockdown measures, interrupted supply chains, dramatic declines in tourism revenues and labour remittances, and temporarily low oil prices. In this article, we build on a January 2021 Bruegel Policy Contribution to analyse the scale of the health crisis and its various socio-economic consequences for MENA (see Table 1 for the countries we include), using information and data available at the beginning of May 2021.

COVID-19 in the MENA region

Iran was one of the early victims of the pandemic, with a first wave of fatal cases as early as March 2020. With few exceptions, MENA countries experienced three waves of the pandemic, similarly to Europe. However, a comparative cross-country analysis of infection intensity is difficult due to inadequate diagnostic and reporting systems in some countries.

The relative frequency of testing may provide an indirect measure of the effectiveness of the diagnostic system. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain have been regional leaders, and their testing figures have exceeded those of several advanced economies (Table 1). At the other end of the regional spectrum, the number of tests per million people in Mauritania, Egypt, Algeria, Sudan, and war-affected Syria and Yemen has been low.

Table 1: MENA, COVID-19 basic statistical numbers (as of 10 May 2021)

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.

Despite data gaps, Table 1 suggests that, on average, there were fewer cases and deaths per million people in MENA than in the United States and most European and Latin American countries. Lebanon, Tunisia, Jordan, Iran, and Palestine recorded the highest numbers of deaths per million inhabitants.

Social and economic support measures

During the pandemic, the percentage of the population in MENA countries receiving social assistance has risen significantly, from around 20% to over 70%. However, the region has also recorded the lowest rise in benefit adequacy. This can be primarily explained by the predominance of untargeted support, mainly subsidies, in many countries throughout the region.

Almost all countries have adopted some form of recovery plan. The International Monetary Fund provides a detailed database of national fiscal responses. In some of the more affluent MENA countries, fiscal support was comparable to advanced economies. As early as March 2020, Qatar announced a package of measures worth around 14% of its GDP. It focused mainly on small and medium-sized enterprises and the sectors most affected by the pandemic (eg tourism, hospitality). Bahrain also introduced a large package, totalling around 6% of GDP in March 2020 which was then further expanded. Most central banks in the region also played a role through monetary expansion.

Some middle- and low-income economies also provided substantial support to their populations and businesses: the package announced at the outset of the pandemic in Iran amounted to 10% of its GDP. Other countries have been more fiscally constrained, able to implement only smaller programmes. Public bodies in several countries established funds to collect donations to finance anti-crisis measures (eg Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon). International support has been essential in some of the poorer economies in the region (see below on the rollout of new IMF programmes).

These fiscal packages have generally combined measures of immediate budgetary impact, with delayed payments and guarantee funds. The range of measures employed has been varied, although primarily focused on combating the health emergency, fighting unemployment, supporting the most vulnerable and helping businesses survive, especially in hard-hit sectors (such as tourism). In Jordan, a plan to reinstate one year of military service is underway to combat youth unemployment.

Commodity markets and financial shock

The pandemic-related economic shock in MENA was magnified by the collapse of commodity markets and capital flight from emerging markets. Oil producers were particularly heavily hit by the sudden oil-price fall in March 2020 (Figure 1), driven both by the decrease in global demand and the breakdown of coordination between suppliers within the OPEC+ agreement (in particular, between Russia and Saudi Arabia).

Figure 1: Monthly crude oil prices, $ per barrel, November 2020 May 2021

Source: Bloomberg.

This coordination was partially reinstated in April 2020, stabilising prices at a level of around $40 per barrel between June and November 2020. Since November 2020, due to partial economic recovery worldwide, oil prices have grown again, achieving their pre-pandemic level (above $60 per barrel) in March 2021.

At the end of February and in early March 2020, the MENA region was hit by capital flight: the IMF estimated portfolio capital outflows of about $6 billion to $8 billion during the early days, numbers that they conceded might be even larger. However, the magnitude of this shock was smaller than in other emerging markets, especially in Latin America and the countries that made up the former Soviet Union. This may be explained by less financial openness in most MENA countries than elsewhere.

After the initial outflow, inflows in the second half of 2020 were $4 billion. By February 2021, cumulative flows since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic were positive, although this was reversed with the increase in US longer-term yields in March and April 2021.

Figure 2 shows the spreads between the dollar-denominated debt and US Treasuries (UST) in selected MENA countries. While spreads widened significantly in the first days of the crisis, market confidence has recovered in most cases, with spreads nearing their pre-COVID-19 levels. This improvement in market sentiment is partly explained by the significant monetary and fiscal policy response in advanced economies, which has loosened global financing conditions. Countries with high credit ratings (oil producers) and lower credit-rated countries such as Egypt have managed to maintain market access, both with dollar-denominated and local-currency bonds. The one obvious exception is Lebanon (excluded from Figure 2 to avoid excessive skew), where the unsustainable sovereign debt situation accumulated over many years leading to default in March 2020. Restructuring has been stalled by a lack of political stability and general economic deterioration.

Figure 2: Spreads between sovereign dollar-denominated debt and UST, basis points, February 2020 May 2021

Source: Bloomberg. Note: Lebanon excluded as its values were off the scale, between 2500 and 7000 basis points for the analysed period.

Depreciation of MENA currencies has been modest, and they have largely recovered (sometimes even with a positive margin) after an initial fall in March and April 2020. It is worth keeping in mind that most MENA currencies are pegged to the dollar and not all MENA currencies are fully convertible. While data on the changes in international reserves comes with an inevitable delay, reserve levels in the region are generally considered comfortable; these act as a protective buffer against uncertainty and fluctuations in US yields. The recovery of the oil price will also increase the reserves of oil exporters.

IMF assistance

To help address COVID-19-related economic and social consequences, the IMF provided emergency assistance to several MENA countries. Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia received emergency assistance under the Rapid Financing Instrument. Djibouti and Mauritania have benefited from the Rapid Credit Facility, which includes concessional servicing terms. Because neither of these instruments includes policy conditionality, it is unlikely assistance will trigger structural reforms like the standard IMF assistance programmes. Morocco has drawn from its precautionary credit line, the IMF Extended Fund Facility in Jordan has been modified, Mauritania augmented its Extended Credit Facility, and a new Stand-By Arrangement with Egypt was approved.

Region-wide recession

Like in other parts of the world, the economic impact of the COVID-19 in the MENA region has been severe. Only Egypt and Iran recorded positive growth in 2020, other countries suffered from recession (Table 2). On average, net hydrocarbon exporters and importers were affected equally. It is also worth remembering that the 2020 recession followed mediocre growth performance in the second half of the 2010s.

Table 2: MENA: GDP, constant prices, % change, 2019-2021

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2021. Notes: red text indicates IMF staff estimates and forecasts; data for Syria is not available.

There are two outliers in Table 2 Libya and Lebanon. In Libya, profound fluctuations in GDP have resulted from domestic conflict, leading to periodic interruptions in oil production and exports. Lebanon, as mentioned above, has seen a full-blown sovereign debt crisis. Worse, internal political strife has prevented the formation of a stable government to prepare a rescue programme and start negotiations with the IMF.

Trade data confirms the recessional impact of the pandemic (Table 3). In 2020, most MENA countries recorded deep contractions of both imports and exports. Among a few exceptions, Irans oil exports increased in the second half of 2020, probably by circumventing the United States oil embargo, explaining the increase in real GDP (Table 2).

Table 3: MENA: Changes in volume of imports and exports of goods and services in 2020 as compared to 2019, %

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2021. Notes: red text indicates IMF staff estimates and forecasts; data for Iraq and Syria is not available.

Deepening of fiscal and macroeconomic imbalances

The deep recession, lower general government (GG) revenues, and higher expenditures further deteriorated fiscal balances and debt-to-GDP levels in most MENA economies (Table 4; Figures 3 and 4).

Apart from Egypt, Lebanon, Mauritania and Sudan, GG balances in MENA countries deteriorated in 2020 compared to 2019. In some cases, such as the Gulf countries (except Qatar), Iraq, Libya and Tunisia, this deterioration was substantial. Large fiscal deficits and GDP declines resulted in dramatic increases in gross and net GG-debt-to-GDP ratios (Figures 3 and 4).

Except for Iran and Lebanon, gross GG debt increased everywhere, often by more than ten percentage points of GDP (Figure 3). In oil-producing Sudan, it reached 262.5% of GDP, in Bahrain 132.9%. In Lebanon, which defaulted in March 2020, it remains at 154.4% of GDP. In Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Qatar, Tunisia and Yemen, it exceeds 80% of GDP. We cannot exclude the possibility of new sovereign defaults in the MENA region in the coming years.

Table 4: MENA; GG revenue, expenditure and balance (net lending/borrowing), % of GDP, 2020-2021

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2021. Notes: red text indicates IMF staff estimates and forecasts; data for Syria is not available.

The net debt figures (gross debt minus financial assets correspondent to debt instruments) are only available for some MENA countries. In 2020, net debt also increased in all reported economies except Iran and Lebanon (Figure 4). Only in Oman and Saudi Arabia is the difference between gross and net debt meaningful but decreasing over time, which suggests gradual depleting of their sovereign wealth funds. The lack of net-debt data for other Gulf states means we cannot assess the size of their sovereign assets and their potential depletion.

Current account balances in MENA also deteriorated in 2020. In some countries Djibouti, Iraq, Kuwait and Libya this deterioration exceeded ten percentage points of GDP. On the other hand, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Yemen managed to improve their current account balances marginally due to a more significant declines in imports than exports. Only Lebanon recorded a higher improvement of its very high current account deficit (from -26.5% of GDP in 2019 to -14.3% of GDP) at the costs of deep recession (Table 2) and a drastic decline in domestic demand.

Regarding inflation, there was no single trend in the region in 2020. It jumped to very high and high levels in Sudan (269.3%), Lebanon (150.4%), Iran (48.0%), Yemen (45.0%) and Libya (22.3%). However, it was negative in Qatar (-3.4%), the UAE (-2.1%), Bahrain (-1.6%), Morocco and Oman (both -0.9%), and Jordan (-0.3%), that is, in the countries which have their currencies pegged to the dollar. In other cases, inflation remained on a low one-digit level.

Figure 3: MENA: GG gross debt, % of GDP, 2020-2021

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2021. Note: data for Libya and Syria is not available.

Figure 4: MENA: GG net debt, % of GDP, 2020-2021

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database, April 2021.

Uncertain prospects

The April 2021 IMF World Economic Outlook predicts a modest recovery in the region in 2021 (last column of Table 2). Still, all forecasts are subject to frequent corrections and updates, compounded by pandemic-related uncertainty.

The pace of global economic recovery will impact international hydrocarbon prices which are crucial for MENA oil and natural gas exporters. On the regional level, fighting the pandemic (mainly by vaccination) will be the most critical factor determining the speed of opening up of individual economies and the most vulnerable sectors such as tourism. In the longer term, economic recovery will depend on the resolution of regional conflicts, the political ability to reduce fiscal deficits and public debt, a continuation of structural, institutional, and social reforms, and finding a constructive response to the increasing democratic aspirations of MENA societies.

Figure 5 shows the progress of COVID-19 vaccination in the MENA region. The UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait lead in the region, with Morocco not too far behind.

Figure 5: MENA: Share of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine (up to 8 May 2021)

Source: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations. Note: countries with no data and with the share of vaccinated population below 1% are omitted.

While vaccines administered in the MENA region come from various suppliers, Chinese producers play the dominant role. Overall, the region struggles with limited access to vaccines, especially those produced in the US and Europe (BioNTech/Pfizer, Moderna and Astra Zeneca). Some countries, especially those affected by violent conflicts and political disintegration, lack the administrative and logistical capacity to conduct mass vaccination.

Different responses across the region

Overall, our analysis suggests intra-regional differences in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. To a large degree, these reflect differences in the GDP per capita levels of individual countries and the quality and resources of health systems and public administrations. High-income Gulf countries have been doing much better than most of their middle- and low-income neighbours, although there have been some positive exceptions among the latter, for example, Jordan and Morocco.

Acknowledgement

The authors would like to thank Uri Dadush for his valuable comments on a draft of this blog post.

Recommended citation:

Dabrowski, M. and M. Domnguez-Jimnez (2021) The socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa, Bruegel Blog, 14 June

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