Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

The year 2022 is an important landmark in the diplomatic relations between the two countries.

While the formal diplomatic relations were established in 1992, the relations between the two countries are more than 2000-year-old. Historians point out that economic and cultural links can be traced back to the 2nd BC. They point out that Buddhism reached Vietnam via Indian delegations in the 3rd or 2nd BC. As per legends, Chu ong Tu (a famous Vietnamese divine being and a ruler) became a disciple of an Indian Buddhist monk and Luy Lu, in Bac Ninh Province became the centre of Buddhism. The Cham civilisation is yet another symbol of long relationship.

The last fifty years have witnessed a significant growth in the India-Vietnam bilateral relations, which have acquired a new dimension with common strategic, diplomatic, security and economic interests with special focus on people-to-people linkages. India-Vietnam ties are one of the most crucial bilateral relations that India has in the South-East Asia. India and Vietnam have elevated their relations from Strategic Partnership in 2007 to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2016. This reflected the commitment of two countries to become more invested in boosting their bilateral relations in a wide array of fields.

This year has witnessed high-level exchanges between the two countries to mark the celebration of 50-years of diplomatic relations. At the end of 2021, Mr Vuong Dinh Hue, Chairman of the powerful National Assembly of Vietnam visited India along with a high-level delegation on the invitation of Vice President Sri Naidu and Sri Om Birla, Speaker of the Lok Sabha. This was the first high-level interaction to celebrate the 50 th year of diplomatic relations between the two countries and spell-out an action plan for further cooperation between the citizen representatives of the two countries.

This year, Sri Om Birla visited Vietnam in April 2022. During his visit, he stressed that India and Vietnam should further expand their cooperation in areas such as climate change, sustainable development, health care, and the digital economy. On the 15 th April, PM Modi had a telephonic conversation with the Secretary General of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong, who briefed the former over the targets of the 13 th National Congress on socio-economic issues that included Vietnams aim to emerge as a key manufacturing hub for global giants and to upgrade its economic profile from a low-cost labour industry concentrated on labour-intensive manufacturing into high-tech centre for science and technology. The Indian Defence Minister Sri Rajnath Singh visited Vietnam in June 2022. This visit was important both from the defence and economic dimensions.

Both the countries are emphasising the need for promoting trade and investment and cooperation in hi-tech for economic development taking the economic relationship to much higher level for mutual benefits. In pursuance of this objective, Vietnams the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Government of Vietnam sent to India a business delegation led by Mr. Do Quoc Hung, Deputy Director General of the Ministry, and 20 business communities in multi-sectors to India from July 18th to 22nd 2022. The leader of the delegation at the meeting with the Indian Importers Chamber of Commerce and Industry (IICCI) stated that the bilateral trade between the two countries registered a significant growth since 2000 when it was only $ 200 million to 2021-2022 reaching to 4 14. billion and that in 2021-2022, the bilateral trade between India and Vietnam posted a growth of 27 %. Mr Atul Kumar Saxena, President of IICCI highlighting the factors that has made the country an attractive place for doing business, pointed out that Vietnam is providing necessary assistance to entrepreneurs and has a stable economic growth that was noticeable even during the pandemic period.

Of late, Vietnam has taken several steps to accelerate its integration into the global market like signing of a Free Trade Agreement with Europe in 2019. It is also a member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP,) RCEP and India-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. Vietnam is emerging as a favourite destination for the Japanese manufacturing firms, who intend to shift their operations from China. In August 2020, the then Japanese PM (Late) Abe, observed that half of the Japanese businesses that receive support from the Government in expanding supply chains had chosen Vietnam and assured Vietnam of his governments assistance to such firms for diversifying supply chains.

Internal reforms that began with the introduction of Doi Moi in 1986 that aimed at shifting away from centrally planned economy to a market one, are continuing. Vietnam has not only assured continued electricity supply to industrial houses, but has also digitalised the process of registration of firms, introduced transparency and freedom to foreign firms to have 100% ownership. Its anti-Corruption campaign assures the elimination of middle-men. Besides it is focusing on developing skilled labour needed for industrial growth.

Currently, India is one of the top 8th trading partners of Vietnam while Vietnam is the 15th largest trading partner of India and the fourth in Southeast Asia. Vietnam is trying to diversify its trade and intends to make use of Indias growing market. The key Vietnamese exported products to India are mobile phones and components, computers, electronic products and components, chemicals, plastics, rubber, coffee, pepper, and cashew. The main Indian exported products to Vietnam are iron and steel products, textile materials, fishery, corn, pharmaceutical, and pharmaceutical raw materials; auto spare parts.

Vietnam occupies a central position in Indias Act East Policy as also in the Indo-Pacific strategy.

India has made positive contributions towards capacity building and socio-economic development of Vietnam. India has also been providing assistance to Vietnam within the ASEAN framework.

Under the Mekong Ganga Cooperation (MGC) framework, India has been taking up Quick Impact Projects (QIPs), each valued at US$50,000, in different provinces of Vietnam for development of community infrastructure. India has 317 valid projects worth over 1 billion USD in Vietnam, ranking 23 th out of the 129 countries and territories investing in that country.

India realises that Vietnam is a potential regional power in the South East Asia with great political stability and substantial economic growth. Its average 7% annual economic growth is very attractive. Even during the worst period of pandemic, its economic growth remained commendable at the 3% while several other nations registered negative growth. Even more impressive is its growth which is driven by a record trade surplus, despite the collapse in global trade.

The drivers for the growth of trade and commerce are both strategic and economic. Both the countries desire to do away from the dependence on China. The problem related to supply chain emerging in the recent years, has also pushed them to consider an alternative supply line. Moreover, both the nations desire stable, open, free and inclusive Indo-Pacific Ocean region. Thus, both have common objectives.

What are the future prospects for economic relations between the two countries in the current unpredictable global environment? India is pursuing the Act East Policy and is working to make Indo-Pacific free and open, that will promote Security and Growth for All in Region (SAGAR).

Vietnam has set the priorities at the 13 th National Congress that include national digital transformation, development of a digital-based economy, greater stress science and technology development and creating more conducive environment for business development as well as for manufacturing concerns. These make the prospects for further growth of trade and commerce between India and Vietnam bright in the coming period.

Views expressed above are the author's own.

END OF ARTICLE

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Growing India-Vietnam economic relations - Times of India

Lebanon ranked as the country with the angriest people in the world according to a Gallup Global Emotions report.

Between the years 2021 and 2022, this report included data from over 100 countries, in which 1000 people from each, who are above 15 years old, were part of this survey.

The survey asked those people about their experience with anger for the precedent day.

The survey found that almost 49% of those who participated from Lebanon did meet the criteria, meaning they have experienced some sort of rage the day earlier.

As per that, Lebanon came in first place followed by Turkey (48%) and Armenia (46%).

Amidst the continuous socio-economic crisis and the drastic currency collapse, these results could only be expected in such devastating conditions.

Most people in Lebanon today cant afford the minimum needed to provide for their families, pay for their health care or medical treatment, cope with the skyrocketing prices and the dollarization of education, and have full access to their savings in banks, to name the most relevant.

Their frustrations have been only increasing at the ongoing idleness of the ruling body to tackle the crises and implement the much-needed reforms.

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Lebanon Ranked As The Angriest Country In The World - The961

BY Vince MuseweECONOMICS is really about human development. If it is failing to achieve that, it means that its policies are inappropriate and must naturally be changed.

For many years, we have seen and heard multiple narratives on our economic conditions that have depended on who is articulating that narrative. On the one side, we have politicians who have tended to interpret the economy based on their political motives and what they seek to believe.

We then have the business sector and academics who, on the other hand, have also taken a binary view on things. There are those who fear to say things as they are and support the political narrative, while others seem to be very objective. This has resulted in a diluted narrative which depends on who one wants to listen to and where ones interests are vested in.

Ultimately, we have failed to have one collective, honest and objective narrative of our economic conditions as experienced by the majority.

This failure has led to misinformed policy mis-steps and the lack of a united popular drive to make the necessary political and economic changes so that we may begin to experience sustainable socio-economic development.

Granted, our economy has become a complex economy which is dynamic and in constant flux. As a result, policy predictability is now a thing of the past and this is made so because we now have a highly informalised economic ecosystem.

Added to this is the fact that we have multiple economic agents each seeking to maximise profits, be it cartels, retailers, currency speculators, miners, middlemen and all sorts, including State agents and enterprises.

We have a mishmash of competing interests, all geared for short-term gain at the expense of long-term economic development.

The politics around our economy have not made things better. There is this persistent false narrative that we continually have detractors who are keen on sabotaging government, which continually blames exogenous factors for what are, in fact, man-made economic problems which we have contributed to.

Unfortunately, what this does is to remove the responsibility from government of changing its economic approach and paradigm.

The statement that there is no economic crisis does little to create confidence and the urgency for the need to revisit the thinking around restructuring or reforming an economy that is no longer sufficient to meet the needs and aspirations of many.

Transforming any economy is not easy. It is a process and not an event.

However, it requires clarity of purpose from leadership and a clear strategy and implementation framework which must be continually monitored and evaluated.

It also requires a buy-in from all economic agents and stakeholders and the politics becomes important. At this juncture, it appears to me that government is in one corner with its own narrative and priorities, while everyone else just has to make the best of it.

There is, therefore, an inherent conflict of intentions and interests within and without and this has resulted in what we have an economy where fundamentals are indicating progress, but is dominated by informality, lack of stability and general dysfunctionality.

The first issue we need to be honest about is the government and political leaderships sincerity and commitment to change things for the better.

Government can certainly do better to continually demonstrate its unshakable commitment to make lives better for all citizens. Key to this will be ensuring inclusivity in economic opportunities for all and dealing with corruption.

Second, there is no unity of purpose among economic agents, there is no overwhelming obligation to do good and develop our country. This includes those who may be foreign investors. Each one is doing what they can get away with to make as much profit as possible by any means possible. This has added to increasing levels of corruption and an increase in illicit economic activities.

Money has become a national god, while talent and virtue offer no advancement.

Third, there is too much of a prescriptive nature in our governance at the expense of collaboration and consultation.

This has led to policy mistakes which continue to cost us. There is no respect that those outside certain political circles might know better through experience and better knowledge.

This continues to cost us as we implement policies which do not have the benefit of hindsight or better alternatives.

Fourth, we do not respect talent and skills, nor do we honour the living for their contributions to our society in any field whether it be business, sports entertainment and academia, among many others. Societies develop and do better through the recognition and acknowledgement of raw talent.

There are many Zimbabweans out there who are exceptionally gifted to contribute to the growth and development of our society, but we ignore them. We are jealous and we fear that their brilliance may outshine ours. That is sad, indeed, and limits our potential as a country.

In my opinion, these are some of the areas we need to look at and improve so that we can have all hands on deck.

The issue of price stability is a critical economic fundamental which is experienced by everyone regardless of their political or economic status or interests.

The inflationary pressures being faced in our economy have a serious impact on both business and individuals.

Business cannot plan ahead and individuals are getting poorer by the day. That is a recipe for disaster that everyone needs to accept.

Where its not for the increased diaspora remittances which topped US$2 billon last year, we would definitely be seeing widespread urban poverty and a catastrophic collapse of aggregate demand.

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Let's be honest with our economics - NewsDay

I have listened to stories of shock and of loss. Young people whose dream is simply to go to school are now chasing informal jobs to provide for their families, Najat Rochdi told journalists at a press briefing.

Others desperately seek to leave and start a new life elsewhere, leaving the country almost void of its most rich and promising human capital.

According to World Bank estimates, real GDP is projected to contract by a further 6.5 per cent this year, on the back of a 10.5 per cent and 21.4 per cent decline, in 2021 and 2020 respectively.

The currency has devalued sharply, while inflation has reached a devastating 890 per cent.

The countrys socio-economic meltdown has been further exacerbated by the Ukrainian war, which is reflected in Lebanons wheat reserves depletion and soaring fuel price, threatening food security.

As unemployment increases, the minimum monthly wage is less than $25.

The Labour Force Survey, issued in January by the International Labour Organization (ILO), shows that almost one-third of Lebanons labour force is unemployed, with unemployment tremendously increasing from 11.4 per cent in 2018-2019 to 29.6 per cent this year. A Labour Force Survey, issued in January by the International Labour Organization (ILO), shows that almost a third of Lebanons workforce is unemployed, with unemployment increasing from 11.4 per cent in 2018-2019, to 29.6 per cent this year.

And youth unemployment stands at 47.8 per cent among those aged 15 to 24.

Joblessness has become the tip of the iceberg, throwing away an entire productive and creative generation that can help build forward a better Lebanon, said the Humanitarian Coordinator.

Global market increases in crude oil prices have been mirrored nationally by cost spikes in gasoline, diesel, and gas with spill-over effects detrimentally impacting the Lebanese.

It threatens to tip thousands of families over the edge into food insecurity, malnutrition, and possibly hunger, she continued, highlighting a recent assessment saying that 2.2 million require support to access to food and other basic needs until the end of the year a 46 percent increase on last year.

Moreover, 90 per cent of families are consuming cheaper food, 60 per cent limiting portion size, and 41 per cent reducing the number of meals.

These are mind-blowing numbers that raise the alarm about food insecurity in the country, Ms. Rochdi said.

She stressed the importance of a comprehensive and inclusive social protection policy as the only possible exit strategy to help between short-term emergency interventions, and a longer-term rights-based approach that guarantees a more dignified future for all.

A comprehensive and inclusive social protection policy...the only possible exit strategy Resident Coordinator

The countrys health sector is on the verge of collapse as 1.95 million people need humanitarian health services a 43 per cent increase since last August.

Citing the World health Organization (WHO), she pointed to skyrocketing hospitalization costs, overstretched primary healthcare facilities, exorbitant medicine prices and acute shortages in medical supplies and power.

Lebanons crisis is affecting everyone, everywhere across the country, with women bearing the brunt of the profound impact, the Resident Coordinator continued, warning that gender-based violence, sexual exploitation and abuse are also rising.

Around 75 per cent of Lebanese women are jobless, and among the 25 per cent who are in the labour force, 10 per cent are unemployed.

And according to the UN Childrens Fund (UNICEF), hundreds of thousands of children go to bed hungry, lack healthcare, and work to help support their families scrapping their education.

This reality is worsening by the day and childrens health and safety are being jeopardized, she said, pointing to children under five missing out on routine vaccinations, some 200,000 of whom suffer a form of malnutrition, while stunting now effects some seven per cent, a worrying indicator of chronic malnutritionlikely to worsen if food insecurity continues to increase.

This must end, she exclaimed. Children are the future of this country, and we all have to support them, empower them, and protect them now, to avoid a lost generation, the Resident Coordinator spelled out.

OCHA

Lebanons UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator, Najat Rochdi, announces at a press conference, the extension of the Emergency Response Plan (ERP).

Under Ms. Rochdis leadership, the Humanitarian Country Team launched a 12-month coordinated multi-sectoral ERP while warning that short-term solutions must be replaced with sustainable ones, which address root causes of compounding crises.

This lies in the concept of emergency development that shapes the recently signed UN Cooperation Framework and presents a transitional phase to help stem humanitarian needs, said the Resident Coordinator.

Since August 2021, the ERP has received $197 million to assist some 600,000 vulnerable Lebanese, migrants, and Palestine refugees affected by the crisis.

From then through to April, it has provided nearly 650,000 with monthly food assistance, supported 300,000 with health interventions, and around 286,000 with daily clean water.

Moreover, emergency fuel provisions have helped support over 600 health facilities.

However, with 2.2 million Lebanese, 86,200 migrants, 207,800 Palestine refugees and 1.5 million Syrian refugees requiring emergency aid, Ms. Rochdi again appealed to the Government to find a sustainable solutionand take decisive actions in adopting the necessary reforms to address this problem.

Meanwhile, the UN has extended the ERP until the end of 2022, which requires an additional $163 million to fulfil the added humanitarian needs of the mounting number of vulnerable people.

Despite the scale and magnitude of the hardships, I personally see this crisis as an opportunityto unlock the potential that this country has in the path of development and recovery, said the Humanitarian Coordinator.

Sources: UN and humanitarian partners

Lebanon Revised Emergency Response Plan 2021 - 2022 Overview

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Socio-economic meltdown leaves Lebanese hanging on by a thread | | UN ...

ECONOMYNEXT Sri Lankas women and girls will be given dignity and maternity kits after money printing led to the collapse of the countrys unstable soft-peg with the US dollar has triggered shortages of medicines and other goods.

The current socio-economic crisis is having far-reaching implications on the ability of women and girls to live in dignity as rising inflation, power cuts, scarcity of food, fuel, and other essential items such as medicines have made meeting basic needs a daily challenge, the UNFPA said.

Evidence suggests such socio-economic challenges and its after-effects will have serious repercussions and exacerbate existing inequalities for women, girls and other marginalized groups; reducing their ability to access personal care including essential items for postnatal maternal health and sanitary items.

Given the drop in the level of disposable incomes in households, personal care will not be prioritized. As such women and girls may revert to using unhygienic practices that could impact their health and wellbeing.

The UNFPA said 1,300 dignity and 130 maternity kits worth 35,230 dollars were given to the Family Health Bureau of the Ministry of Health.

The Dignity and Maternity kits provided contain personal hygiene & safety items, explicitly tailored to the needs of women & girls of reproductive age including those in the postnatal period in local communities, the UNFPA said.

The aim of this initiative is to provide the simplest amenities that have the greatest impact on a womans comfort, mobility and physical and psychological health.

The current currency crisis is the worst triggered by the countrys intermediate regime central bank in its 70-year history.

There have been calls to set up a single anchor consistent regime monetary authority with a clean floating regime or a hard peg to block interventionist economists from depreciating the currency in the future and give a chance for the poor. (Colombo/May19/2022)

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UN and Australia give dignity kits to women and girls in Sri Lanka ...

The Crisis and the Road Toward Elections

Lebanon has been suffering from a severe financial crisis since October 2019. The crisis was further exacerbated by both the COVID-19 pandemic and the deadly explosion at the Beirut port on August 4, 2020. The roots of the crisis run deep. The country experienced liquidity shortages in the years prior to 2019, but the fragility of the economy was buried by the financial engineering of the Central Bank and the political leadership, which sank the country into systematic corruption and ultimately institutional collapse.

Following the collapse of the banking system (one of the main pillars of the Lebanese economy), the country has been in the throes of hyperinflation. The Lebanese pound has lost 95 percent of its value and continues to decline. The country is also facing record-high unemployment, poverty, an increasing crime rate as well as severe shortages in water, food (mainly bread), gasoline, medicine and electricity. According to ESCWA, around 82 percent of people in Lebanon live in multidimensional poverty, compared to 42 percent in 2019. The economic crisis is considered to be among the three worst in the world since the mid-1800s.

To top it off, Beirut was the site of the third-largest non-nuclear explosion in history, which killed 217 people and injured more than 700 others. The destruction displaced some 300,000 people and caused billions of dollars in damage across the capital. Due to a lack of state funding, people had to renovate their homes and businesses at their own expense.

According to a World Bank report dated January 2022, the scale and scope of Lebanons deliberate depression are leading to the disintegration of key pillars of Lebanons post-civil war political economy. This is being manifested by a collapse of the most basic public services; persistent and debilitating internal political discord; and mass brain drain. The report concluded that Lebanons deliberate depression is orchestrated by the countrys ruling elite that has long captured the state and absorbed its profits.

To save the country from total institutional collapse, the government, under international pressure, pledged to hold the parliamentary elections on May 15, 2022. Election day saw severe competition between Hezbollah, the Lebanese Forces (LF) and the Free Patriotic Movement. As one of the largest seven communities in the country, Armenians participated in the elections as well. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) had five candidates. The Social Democratic Hunchakian Party (SDHP) had one candidate, and the Armenian Democratic Liberal/Ramgavar Party supported the candidates backed by the ARF and the SDHP. A total of six Armenian seats are allocated to the community (five Armenian Apostolic/Orthodox and one Catholic, divided among electoral districts where Armenians are mainly concentratedone seat in Zahle, one in Northern Metn and four in Beirut I). However, in addition to the Armenian candidates backed by the traditional political parties, there were dozens of Armenian independent candidates backed by non-Armenian political organizations and civil society opposition groups. There was fierce competition mainly in Northern Metn and Beirut I electoral districts.

By May 16, the vote counts were clear; no side won a complete majority. Unlike the 2018 parliamentary elections, Hezbollah and its allies lost their complete parliamentary majority, but they still control more than 50 percent of the Parliament. The Lebanese Forces Party and its allies barely formed the largest parliamentary block, making way for new young and civil-society-backed independent faces in the legislature. On the Armenian community level, the ARF preserved its three seats (lost one seat in Beirut I and gained a seat in Zahle). The MPs are ARF Central Committee representative Hagop Pakradounian (Northern Metn), Hagop Terzian (Beirut I) and George Bouchikian (Zahle). Jihad Pakradouni (backed by the Lebanese Forces Party) gained a seat in Beirut I. Civil society-backed Paula Yacoubian and independent Jean Talouzian preserved their seats in Beirut I.

I will highlight and analyze the outcome of the general elections and its impact on the Armenian community, which is also facing financial challenges. Armenians in Lebanon are the only community with shrinking demographics as many families emigrate and the death rate surpasses the birth rate. I will also critically assess the decrease in the number of votes gained by Armenian political parties compared to the slight increase in the number of Armenian votes gained by independent Armenian or non-Armenian candidates between the 2018 and 2022 parliamentary elections. I will conclude with a few recommendations for new strategies and the need to adopt a vision for the future of the community.

Election Results and the Prolongation of the Crisis

-Unlike in 2018, Hezbollah no longer enjoys a full majority in the Parliament. It lost Christian allies, but it also gained some Sunni allies. Interestingly, the Syrian government also lost some allies. The Syrian Social Nationalist Party, one of the largest secular pro-Syria political parties, lost all of its seats due to internal divisions. There was also exaggeration in the Western mainstream media that the anti-Hezbollah camp and the opposition were victorious. This power shift (Hezbollah not enjoying a complete majority) does not necessarily mean that the pro-American/Saudi camp now has a majority in the Parliament. The Lebanese Forces and the Phalanges alongside other Western-oriented independent MPs cannot form a majority. In order to gain a majority in the Parliament, both sides have to try to attract and win over the independent and civil society-backed MPs and cooperate with their rivals. It is worth mentioning that many of these new independent MPs are very flexible and not able to form a unified opposition parliamentary bloc since they are diverse. Some of them are leftists, others liberals and some have political affiliation with other local or regional players. Hence, not all civil society-backed opposition MPs are pro-Western as the Western media have portrayed.

-With a 49 percent voter turnout, the Lebanese Forces party has the largest number of MPs19. Its Christian rivalthe Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), which had the largest parliamentary blocbrought 17 seats and gained much fewer votes. However, combined with the ARF, the FPM will again preserve its largest parliamentary share. Hence, both the FPM and the LF will try to attract some independent MPs to increase their parliamentary share.

-The Saudi embassy has been cautious not to publicly support any side though there are rumors that Saudi Arabia has financed anti-Hezbollah groups learned from its past mistakes never to put all its eggs in one basket. The embassy will support groups like LF, Phalanges and independent Sunni blocks to contain the Iranian influence in Lebanon. Also, former PM Saad Hariris Future Movement brought eight MPs despite not formally running under the Future Movement banner. This could pave the way in the future to bring Hariri back to politics.

-Turkey also gained some loyal MPs. Turkey had been active in Lebanon with its soft power politics. After the elections, many Sunni MPs and politicians rushed to the Turkish embassy to get blessing and political support from the ambassador. Two candidates, one in Tripoli and the other in Beirut II electoral districts with close ties with Ankara, entered the Parliament.

-It is unclear how the next cabinet will be formed, if the LF will join and how it will engage with Hezbollah. Many analysts share their concern that this era will witness a lot of security concerns, similar to the Tayouneh incidents where supporters and partisans of LF clashed with Amal and Hezbollah armed partisans. Diplomatic sources also expressed some concerns to me about potential clashes in the future between Hezbollah and the Arab Sunni tribes in Khaldeh. Such events may continue until the Presidential elections (October 2022). There are concerns that the Sunni-Shia conflict may be replaced by a Christian-Shia conflict and this will be disastrous for the Christians but will also threaten Hezbollahs Christian legitimacy.

Historically, whenever the balance of power shifts in Lebanon, the country ends up in a conflict/crisis. This was the case in 1958, 1975 and 2008. If some members of the civil society ally with the LF and other anti-Hezbollah forces and try to challenge the current system and Hezbollah, then Hezbollah may react. Some analysts argue that regional actors may push some politicians toward such a scenario to provoke the system and facilitate its collapse and arrange a new political and economic system in Lebanon.

If the MPs fail to select a PM to form a new cabinet, the current (resigned) government will take care of the country until the Presidential elections in October (if a President is elected). I fear that Lebanon may end up in an institutional crisis. If the Presidential office is vacant, constitutionally, the Parliament cannot consult to select a Prime Minister. Hence, the executive branch would be completely paralyzed. Thus, the 2008 scenario will be repeated and street clashes may occur between Shias and Christians. This may require regional and Western intervention, and foreign powers may impose an agreement or a new system on Lebanon similar to the Taif agreement in 1989 or the Doha agreement in 2008.

-The major parliamentary blocs will consult the President, and a government will be formed. With the end of President Michel Aouns term, the new government will take the executive role as the Presidential powers will go to the cabinet. Some may fear that the President would transfer his power to the army chief and not the Prime Ministers office. This may invite constitutional problems and drive the country to institutional collapse which may force the emergence of a new political system. The economic situation will also worsen. A major European diplomatic source confirmed to me that Europe is not ready to help Lebanon if the government doesnt adopt structural reforms, and some European leaders are seriously thinking of letting the country collapse so that politicians beg for mercy and agree on reforms. This will be very painful for the poor and middle-class as Lebanon is witnessing a brain drain.

Challenges in the Armenian Community

According to Joanne Randa Nucho, Armenian political parties have been involved in larger inter-confessional alliances and factions within the Lebanese political world for decades. Lebanese Armenians are now more visible and vocal players in Lebanese politics; their objective has been the safety and security of Armenians. It is worth mentioning that after the end of the Civil War in Lebanon (1975-1990) and the emigration of thousands of Armenians, their political influence has been limited compared to the 1960s and early 1970s. Thats when the number of Armenians exceeded 200,000 in Lebanon, and they were represented with strong, active leaders. Media attention was given in the last few elections to the Armenian swing vote as the one sect that could determine which political faction would become dominant. However, since 1992, the percentage of Armenian voters has been around 24 percent of registered voters. Many Armenians had emigrated and upon their deaths, their names have not been omitted from the registered voters lists. The Armenian community is the only community in Lebanon where its number is shrinking; this is mainly because of emigration, and the new generation abroad is not being encouraged to apply for Lebanese citizenship.

Despite that, the community and its institutions are still active in safeguarding the political rights of the Armenians on one hand and addressing the minimum social, educational and economic needs of the community. In December 2020, in collaboration with the German Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, I published a paper titled Communitarianism and Crisis Response: The Model of Lebanese-Armenians where I highlighted and analyzed the role of Armenian political, social and religious institutions in shaping the life of the community. These institutions led by the churches or parties were influential in fundraising and addressing the needs of the Lebanese-Armenians in times of crisis. For example, the ARF-led Parliamentary bloc had already implemented several social and educational projects for Armenians, such as granting scholarships for Armenian university students, covering marriage expenses in church and giving financial aid to families with more than three children. The party also initiated the COVID Crisis Committee which raised money for Armenian families in need and provided them with ration packs, medical assistance and free hospitalization for all those who were affected by the pandemic. During the Beirut blast, hundreds of youth and volunteers from the ARF, SDHP and AGBU were on the streets in eastern Beirut and Bourj Hammoud to help injured families, shelter them and renovate their houses.

Nevertheless, despite this, the voting share of the Armenian political parties has slightly improved. In 2018, Armenian political parties brought 12,924 preferable votes out of the 24,707 total Armenian voters. In 2022, Armenian political party candidates brought 13,567 preferable votes out of the total votes. In an interview with the policy and research specialist at Information International Mohammad Chamseddine, the researcher highlighted that the number of Armenian voters in 2022 was around 21,000. Its worth mentioning that not all of the remaining Armenian votes went toward independent Armenian candidates; non-Armenian candidates took a share as well. This trend was new for the Armenians. On the other hand, for the sake of comparison, by counting the sectarian preferable votes for the three ARF elected MPs and the candidates, we see that 70 to 90 percent of their voters were Armenians. Armenian MPs and candidates who were supported by non-Armenian political parties or civil society opposition groups gathered less than 10 to 20 percent of Armenian votes and were elected mainly by non-Armenian voters. In this context, it is important to mention that non-Armenian candidates have also attracted a large number of Armenian voters. This trend has been increasing over time, either due to vote buying or political affiliations.

To address the above-mentioned gap, questions should be raised to improve the situation and adopt programs to attract the youth and engage them in community work and political activism.

Future Questions and Recommendations

This analysis has shown that the strength of mobilizing the votes of Armenian voters in favor of Armenian traditional political parties is decreasing. While votes have increased compared to 2018, the share of Armenian votes for non-partisan or non-Armenian candidates has also increased. Even though the parties and their sister organizations are doing enormous humanitarian work (COVID-19 crisis response, renovating properties damaged due to the Beirut Port explosion, providing monthly stipends and food to needy families), there is still a gap between the leadership and the young generation. The traditional political parties must try to narrow this gap by incorporating the youth in the junior-level decision-making process so that they feel their voices and demands are not suppressed nor isolated but heard and appreciated. Our institutions will prosper as these young people will bring their creative and progressive initiatives and merge with the institutionalized ideas of the traditional institutions. This may be a challenging task as traditional institutions historically always clash with reform and modernization. However, reforms can be the best cure to avoid a future vacuum or institutional crisis and facilitate power transition.

Generally, though not necessarily always the case, the young generation has always been rebellious and the first to jump on waves of change. Unlike the old generation, the young generation has not witnessed the horrors of the Lebanese Civil War and has not seen the sacrifices of the youth of Armenian political parties while defending Armenian neighborhoods and properties (churches, schools, shops and residences). Therefore, mentioning the sacrifices of the older generation during electoral rallies or campaigns for political gains is not useful as these memories have lost the sense of mobilization among the youth. This is a common issue where our political parties fall into the trap of history. Elections are not about the past but about the future. The attendees of the rallies are neither historians nor are interested in history lessons; they are citizens concerned about their future.

With the wave of globalization, there is a renewed attack against everything associated with institutions and traditionalism. For this reason, political parties, religious institutions and often any bureaucratic association have been a target of such criticism. How to avoid such criticism? Armenian political parties in Lebanon and generally in the Middle East, after the experiences in Iraq, Syria and other countries (wave of terrorism, authoritarianism), have developed a certain immunity against modernization, became conservative and avoided taking extreme political positions by not addressing public demands. Instead, they secluded themselves in communitarianism and community activism. This trend has not been welcomed by the general youth class whose demands have gone beyond communitarianism. Now that the youth have individual demands, which are a reflection of basic rights of a citizen, such as public health care, having full access to clean water, electricity, environmental rights, employment and security, political parties must balance between community activism and public demands. For this reason, balancing between communitarianism and public life is essential and being transparent about public life is important to inform the citizens of the public activities of the representative parties and their MPs or ministers.

Political and electoral rallies and campaigns should not be a form of a public crusade against the rival; that is, not what he/she is or hasnt done, but what I/me/us have done and can/will do. Interestingly, in the past two parliamentary elections, the Armenian political parties (mainly the ARF) have always called for pan-partisan unity and called those who would not like to vote for the ARF then at least to vote for other Armenian political parties since only Armenian political parties can represent the interests of the community, as individual candidates supported by non-Armenian political parties lack communal legitimacy. Hence, electoral competition within the Armenian community is no more between different traditional political parties but between the parties and individuals, whether independent or supported by non-Armenian political parties, that had never been associated with community life. Ironically, during the electoral campaigns, rarely partisan candidates touched on the enormous humanitarian, educational and social work that the political parties have done and are still doing to address the needs of the people in Armenian neighborhoods. Meanwhile, the number of independent Armenian candidates is growing, and their voting share from the community is still minimal, but a slight increase has been recorded in the last four years. Moreover, non-Armenian candidates in Beirut I and Northern Metn also have gained votes from Armenians. Of course, vote buying has played its role, but many have voted with free will. The concern of these Armenians must be addressed. Is this because many young Armenians need to see a change outside the traditional community institutions? Is this because they are tired of the same faces representing the community? Is this because the partisan electoral slogans no more attract and mobilize them? These are questions that need to be addressed, studied and analyzed.

Finally, Lebanon in 2022 is not the same as it was in 2018. The community, like other communities, is suffering from a severe brain drain. Many young professionals are leaving and the ones living in Lebanon are suffering from unemployment, searching for jobs or simply suffering from the financial crisis. The crisis has hit the poor and the middle class. It is no longer just about a financial issue, but its also a matter of physical and psychological pressure. New active young faces are needed in the community to keep the Lebanese-Armenian society strong. To attract the youth, especially those who are detached from community life, cultural, sports programs or summer camps can be organized to bring the youth together and discuss and debate ways to reform and strengthen community institutions, assess the current socio-economic situation and incorporate new blood in community work. The current MPs can also learn from the experiences of professionals and draft laws and regulations that address the public needs. A certain mechanism can also be adopted to push fresh graduates as interns and work with the MPs to learn how to frame laws and regulations and engage in political and economic consultation.

Yeghia Tashjian is a regional analyst and researcher. He has graduated from the American University of Beirut in Public Policy and International Affairs. He pursued his BA at Haigazian University in political science in 2013. In 2010, he founded the New Eastern Politics forum/blog. He was a research assistant at the Armenian Diaspora Research Center at Haigazian University. Currently, he is the regional officer of Women in War, a gender-based think tank. He has participated in international conferences in Frankfurt, Vienna, Uppsala, New Delhi and Yerevan. He has presented various topics from minority rights to regional security issues. His thesis topic was on Chinas geopolitical and energy security interests in Iran and the Persian Gulf. He is a contributor to various local and regional newspapers and a presenter of the Turkey Today program for Radio Voice of Van. Recently he has been appointed as associate fellow at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut and Middle East-South Caucasus expert in the European Geopolitical Forum.

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Parliamentary Elections and the Future of the Armenian Community in Lebanon - Armenian Weekly

PART TWO: MYANMAR AFTER THE COUP

By PEN

Post-Coup Political Crisis

The civil war and military rule have negatively impacted the public health system and socio-economic development. Hospitals and other health care facilities have been occupied, raided, and shot at by Myanmar security forces, health care workers have been arbitrarily beaten and arrested while providing care, and patients have been arrested while receiving treatment in facilities. The military has occupied hospitals and used them as military bases, in direct violation of international humanitarian law. Myanmar security forces have raided and taken medical supplies from private clinics and charity organizations focused on providing voluntary medical and social assistance, including those associated with religious organizations, and has warned them not to provide care to civilian protesters. Humanitarian aid, including medical supplies, to displaced populations, has been blocked by the Myanmar military. The country was devastated by a disastrous third wave of Covid-19 from July to September 2021. Thousands of people died mostly at home, without access to any health care facility or provider due to the collapse of the public health care system and obstruction of health care access (Green and Anonymous, 2022)

The nationwide protests spread not only in cities such as Yangon, Mandalay but also to all rural areas, even villages in every part of the country. Government, NGOs, medical doctors, factory workers, and people from all walks of life participated in the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM). Many people from Chin state participated in CDM. Right now, the Chin state is the highest participant in CDM in the country. On the following day of the coup, there were anti-coup protest marches in all townships of the Chin state, from early February. In early March, the military troops in Chin state occupied the government hospital, educational institutions and others. The military made warrants for politicians and activists who opposed the coup in early March-April, 2021. Many CDM participants began escaping to Mizoram, India which borders Chin State. The SAC continued to amend the penal code to arrest, detain, and prosecute human rights defenders, activists, journalists, and ordinary people for criticizing the government or the military or for engaging in peaceful protesters. While the SAC amended the Law Protecting the Privacy and Security of Citizens, there was no rule of law in the country. Additionally, the healthcare system collapsed amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Millions of people were facing hunger, and tens of thousands have fled to other parts of Myanmar and neighboring countries like India and Thailand.

Because of the coup, Myanmar has become a war zone. Violence is not limited to the areas on Myanmars borders that have large ethnic minority populations but is also occurring in major cities such as Mandalay and Yangon. The widespread violence has led thousands of civilians to flee into different parts of Myanmar and across borders. Ethnic Bamar have enjoyed a privileged position in society and have held a majority of government and military positions. But on the other hand, many ethnic minority groups, have faced systematic discrimination, a lack of economic opportunities and development in their regions, minimal representation in government, and abuses at the hands of the military (Maizland , 2022) since 1962.

In April of 2021, three months after Myanmars military took over the country in a coup and replaced the elected government with its State Administration Council (SAC). an attack against Tatmadaw troops by Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) and civilian resistance fighters began in earnest across the country (Ong, 2021).

Living in Fear

Since the coup in 2021, there are widespread fears that the country is slipping toward full-scale civil war and state collapse. The coup has reached human rights violations such as crimes against humanity, including acts of murder, enforced disappearances, persecution, torture, and imprisonment in violation of the fundamental rules of international law (Lilly, 2021). The people of Myanmar have been completely upset. The military has disregarded its citizens, civilians have been living in fear not only in nearby local militias areas and EAOs but also in villages and cities around the country. Anytime, the military can come into civilians houses and check as there is no law protecting privacy. They have been targeting villagers and launching indiscriminate attacks through airstrikes and the use of heavy weaponry in populated areas of civilians.

Myanmar has been experiencing food shortages, lack of healthcare personnel across the country, high inflation, cash limits and long lines at banks, and the healthcare system has been struggling to deal with Covid-19. On top of all of that, the military has continued to brutally crack down on the opposition. Some villagers struggled to get food because they did not have jobs and were unable to earn their livelihoods. The SAC military government ordered shops to close temporarily in some areas in Myanmar. Civilians needed medical treatment in several hospitals, but there were limited doctors, and nurses because health workers joined the civil disobedience movement (CDM). Therefore, civilians have been unable to take treatment and medical care from hospitals. Some civilians passed away at home, on their way to cross borders and in internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps. Even the father of the author was suffering from gout diseases and later he was infected by Covid-19 but the SAC military blocked the road from the village to the township. He passed away in the village without taking any medication on February 5, 2022.

Throughout the country, mostly in ethnic minority areas like villages, people were living in fear and struggled to get food, medicine and basic needs. The villagers were not allowed to buy food from towns and cities by the soldiers.

About the author:

PEN. is the pseudonym of a writer who hails from Burma, and has a Bachelor and Masters degree.

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A Glimpse of the Chin State and Beyond: One Year after the Military Coup in Myanmar - PRESSENZA International News Agency

Mr. Modi has completed 8 years as PM. His achievements have been extolled by the government and the ruling party. No celebration was possible in the last two years due to the grim situation brought about by the rampaging pandemic and the weak governance that was on display. Lost ground was sought to be made up (till the storm erupted on the blasphemous statements by the ruling party leaders) by highlighting the 8 years and not just the 3 years of the second stint.

The government is taking credit for Indian economy becoming the fastest growing (8.7%) major economy in the world. But, there are doubts about this figure. The picture is clouded by high retail inflation at 7.8%, fiscal deficit of 6.3%, unemployment at around 8%, labour force participation rate at 40%, consumer confidence at 72, current account deficit rising rapidly, foreign exchange reserves dipping and the rupee declining against the dollar.

A distinction needs to be made between the first 5 years and the crisis ridden last 3 years. By talking of the 8 years government could show case schemes like, Jan Dhan, Ujjwala, Kisan Samman Nidhi, toilets for all, etc., to mask the crisis of the last 3 years. Many of the schemes like, Aadhar, electrification, toilets, housing for all and right to food are continuing schemes from the past. Credit can nonetheless be taken for pushing them further. But, the first 5 years were also crisis ridden though for a different reason.

The main difference between the two periods is that in the first 5 years, the crisis in the economy was induced by policies while in the subsequent 3 years the crisis emanated from events beyond the governments control and aggravated by inadequacy of its response.

Pro-business, `supply side policies, unsuited to the needs of the country, have been a constant through the 8 years because of the ruling partys ideological baggage. Before coming to power, it had decried welfare schemes (like, MGNREGS) initiated by the previous government. However, it has been forced to continue and enlarge these schemes since its policies have led to a growing crisis in the lives of the marginalized. These schemes perhaps prevented a social explosion.

The government has claimed that it has pushed for structural changes which will benefit the economy in the long run. For instance, the implementation of the Bankruptcy code, GST, digitization, checking corruption, etc. While some of these are useful, many of them have proved to be counter-productive because they were implemented without adequate thought, like, in the case of demonetization, GST and digitization. The negative impact of these policies far outweigh the benefits from the other schemes.

Any economy growing at 5-6% per annum will show improvements in various socio-economic parameters, like, access to education, travel by air and ownership of mobile phones. These should not be allowed to obfuscate the underlying difficulties. For instance, Indias global rank improving from 10th to the 6th or the emergence of a hundred unicorns only masks the challenges building up in society and especially for the marginalized. The challenges that emanate from the macro aspects of policies have overwhelmed the achievements of specific policies.

The first five years saw the announcement of demonetization in 2016, implementation of the structurally flawed GST in 2017, the NBFC crisis in 2018 and push for digitization. These economic shocks were administered in quick succession aggravating the underlying crisis caused by the `supply side policies and caused further distortion of the structure of the economy.

The vast unorganized sector, employing 94% of the work force, has been irrevocably damaged. This is the economys marginal sector which provides refuge to those who are left out of the more lucrative organized sector which is capital intensive and offers few jobs. The unorganized sector consists of the self-employed, small and micro units. It is well documented that the shocks referred to above marginalized this sector further. Employment and incomes declined leading to a fall in demand and slowing down of the economy.

The shocks also vitiated the data base of the economy. Since data for the unorganized sector comes occasionally, in the intervening years, it is proxied by the organized sector. But once the structure of the economy changed due to the shocks, this method becomes irrelevant. The declining unorganized sector cannot be represented by the growing organized sector.

This is the invisibilization of the unorganized sector. If this sector is not independently measured and the rate of growth looks good then policy, especially to take care of it, is not required.

II.1 Background to the First Period

During the UPA II regime, the economy faced a crisis in 2012-13 due to an external shock impacting the balance of payments, high inflation, exposes of big corruption cases and the policy paralysis. This has enabled the government of Mr. Modi to pin the blame for all its problems on the mismanagement of the UPA II. Is this true?

During the crisis of 2012-13 in Q3 and Q4 the economy grew at a tepid 5% and 4.44% respectively. In 2014, when Mr. Modi became the PM the economy had already recovered to grow at 7.76% and 8.52% in Q1 and Q2 respectively. Subsequently, growth touched 8% several times. The crisis of 2012-13 had got washed out.

But from Q4 of 2017-18, there was a secular decline in the official growth rate from 8.1% then to 3.1% in Q4 of 2019-20, just before the pandemic hit India. This decline was a consequence of the policies pursued by the Modi government.

Assuming that the official data is correct, the average growth rate was less than the potential (the peak rate) by 2.5%. For an economy of about Rs.170 lakh crore, the loss was Rs.8.5 lakh crore in two years. If to this one adds the loss due to the decline in the unorganized sector (say, 5%), the total loss would be about Rs.13.5 lakh crore. Mostly this was the loss of the unorganized sector and it far exceeded what all the welfare schemes gave them.

II.2 Growing Disparities

Income surveys are difficult to carry out since people do not report correctly. Yet, the PRICE survey shows that the bottom 60% lost incomes between 2015-16 and 2020-21 while the richest 20% gained 39% in income. This is partly a result of the pandemic. The implication is that there is rising disparity in the country and rising distress of the bottom half. The Delhi Socio economic survey of 2018 projected to the all India level showed that 90% of the households spent less than Rs.10,000 per month and 98% spent less than Rs.20,000 per month. This indicates the extent of poverty in 2018. These figures when combined with the PRICE survey suggest that poverty increased dramatically during the pandemic. But for the governments provision of a few essentials like, foodgrain and gas, poverty would have been worse.

Data on wealth disparity released annually by OXFAM and Credit Suisse presents an even starker picture. They show that most of the wealth is with the top 1% (51.5%) and the top 10% (77.4%). The bottom 60%, only had 4.7%. The `supply side policies aggravate the income and wealth disparities due to their focus on giving concessions to the well-off.

The poor have politically responded to the welfare schemes by voting for the ruling party except where the opposition was strong. They do not link policies to the slowing economy and to their loss of incomes.

The ruling party itself realized the failure of demonetization and the crisis due to GST. While these were announced with much fanfare, they have not been used as election campaign planks.

In the second term, starting May 30, 2019, the economy continued to decelerate. The government persisted with `supply side policies rather than change track. For instance, Corporation tax rate was reduced. It led to a decline in direct tax collection and an increase in the Fiscal Deficit without stimulating additional investments and boosting the economy. The investment rate in the economy fell to 32.2% from 32.7% the previous year. It was 35% in 2012.

The situation is aggravated by the pandemic and now the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The world is headed to a new `Cold war with severe global disruption of supplies. While these are not of governments making, the issue is how well has it coped with them?

In 2007, when the Global Financial crisis hit the world, Indias economic parameters were robust. That was not the case in 2019-20, growth rate had dipped, fiscal deficit was higher and exports were stagnant. So, the economy found it difficult to tackle the unprecedented challenge posed by the pandemic. The government needed to change track, but it persisted with the same `supply side policies. The marginalized sections though hard hit were provided only a minimal amount (about 1.5% of GDP). So, among the major economies, India faced the sharpest decline of 24%.

The suddenness of the lockdown in March 2020 impacted the marginalized severely. The mass migration witnessed in India in terrible conditions was not seen anywhere else in the world. It also exposed the pitiful conditions of living of the vast majority of Indians in spite of the claimed success of the welfare schemes.

The crisis in the unorganized sector meant decline in employment generation, rising under-employment and low Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR). LFPR declined from 47% in 2016 to 40% in 2021. The decline is particularly sharp for women. The implication also is a) that 60% the working age population is not working, b) large number of people in this group are not even looking for work, c) the unorganized sector is declining and d) with so many people withdrawing from the workforce, growth rate of the economy cannot be robust. The data also shows that the more educated a young person, higher the level of unemployment she faces.

III.1 Government Overconfidence

The government displayed overconfidence. In spite of warnings about a second wave, it did not prepare in advance and there was devastation with unprecedented number of deaths and a health crisis. Though the government denies it, according to some experts millions died unrecorded. The preparation for vaccinating the population was tardy. In spite of India being the largest manufacturer of vaccines, the vaccination drive started on January 16, 2021 with a plan to vaccinate 1.5 crore frontline workers, etc. in 1.5 months. At that rate it would have taken 23 years to vaccinate the entire population. Later, vaccination was speeded up but by then the Delta wave had taken its toll.

`Supply side policies, to favour businesses, led to initiation of changes in labour laws and trade in farm produce. It was assumed that during the pandemic opposition would not be able to mount a challenge. The farmers protested strongly for over a year and forced the government to retreat.

Disinvestment of PSUs is another `supply side policy. It weakens the governments capacity to intervene in the economy precisely when the need is for a stronger public sector to boost the economy given the crisis brought about by the pandemic and now the war.

The welfare schemes saved the day for the poor who received free rations and cooking gas, etc. But this highlights the contradiction in policies. The macro policies are marginalizing the poor while the micro policies are trying to give them the basics to survive. This cannot be a robust solution since it raises the fiscal deficit which the `supply side economists frown upon. As the budget deficit grows there would be pressure to dilute these policies leaving the poor in the lurch since their incomes would not have increased due to lack of employment.

Governments claim that it has managed to check the growing black economy is not borne out by evidence. Yes, major cases like the 2G scam have not erupted during the last 8 years. But, big scams like, the Rafael deal, massive drug haul at the Adani port in Mundra, corruption in cooperative banks and their failure, havala through banks (even PSU banks) have been reported. They have not been pursued vigorously by the media which is tightly controlled by the rulers. Smaller cases are being reported daily. During the Delta wave, there was massive black marketing of oxygen cylinders, medicines, etc. but no one has been prosecuted.

The government has pointed to the rise in stock market valuations in spite of the pandemic as an indication of global capitals confidence in India. This has largely been a speculative rise since the profits do not justify such high valuations. That is why the markets have declined in the last 6 months as foreign capital has pulled out consequent to the US Fed raising interest rates and reducing liquidity.

The war in Ukraine and the new `Cold War between two capitalist camps will further disrupt the already fragile global supply chains. Thus, the high levels of inflation are likely to persist and production will not only decline but a recession is possible. One can say, the Indian economy is in stagflation.

The pandemic was leading the world to a `new normal with many new challenges and the war is aggravating them and adding newer ones. There is likely to be de-globalization and de-dollarization which will throw up new challenges for employment, exports, finance and technology. The unorganized sector at the bottom will get further marginalized.

In brief, the policies considered to be the solution are the problem. `Supply side policies to favour businesses dont work when demand is short. They aggravate stagflation. Government counts as its success the welfare policies targeted at the poor. Given their marginalization, these policies have become a necessity to forestall social collapse. The economy is not growing at the officially claimed rate but much less than the potential. This has depressed their incomes and this loss far exceeds what they get through the welfare policies.

The policy stance needs a basic change. Invisibilization of the unorganized sector in data and policy has to be ended. That would boost demand and simultaneously reduce supply bottlenecks within the country.

The answer to how is India doing economically depends on who one asks. The organized sector will largely say it is doing well. But, the vast majority of Indians working in the unorganized sectors farmers, workers, self-employed, artisans, micro sector, etc. will answer in the negative. When they go to vote, for social and political reasons, they may favour the ruling dispensation, especially where the opposition is weak. So, electoral victories cannot be read as an endorsement of the economic performance of the ruling dispensation in the last eight years.

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Hobbled Economic Performance during Modi's Eight Years: Solution has been the Problem - HW News English

The crypto markets abrupt decline has caused the prices of 72 of the top 100 tokens to drop by more than 90 per cent from their all-time highs (ATH), crypto tracking site CoinGecko has said.

According to data, Bitcoin was the most valuable cryptocurrency in the world, and it has dropped more than 30 per cent in the last seven days and is now trading at less than 70 per cent of its November high of $69,000. Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency, has also fallen 78 per cent from its November peak of $4,878. During the market collapse, which began in April this year, nine of the top-10 cryptocurrencies have lost more than 90 per cent of their value.

Binance Coin, Cardano, and Solana, all of which are in the top-10, have dropped by 68-88 per cent. According to the data, the top-10 tokens have lost an average of 79 per cent in the last two months, while the top-20 coins have lost an average of 81.1 per cent since their all-time high.

The price of Bitcoin has fallen from around $41,000 three months ago to around $20,000 at the time of writing. Bitcoins market cap fell from nearly $800 billion to under $400 billion in the same period, according to Coinmarketcap.

The bear market has had an impact on the community and the crypto industry as a whole. Due to the slump, Coinbase, the crypto industrys poster child, revealed earlier this week that it would be laying off 18 per cent of its workforce, or about 1,100 individuals. This moment of crypto winter, according to billionaires Tyler and Cameron Winkelvoss, is a contraction phase that is settling into a period of stasis. The current socio-economic and geopolitical crisis has just added to the chaos.

Furthermore, INTEX, an Indian multinational electronics manufacturing company, has announced the adoption of 5ires Blockchain to enter Web 3.0. The company said that by adoption, it would embark on a new technological revolution in the retail industry.

We are pleased to join with 5ire. Web 3.0 will open up a plethora of new business opportunities. The level of efficiency will skyrocket. It will result in increased transparency, because decentralisation is at its foundation. Its a step towards a more sustainable world. We are at the start of a new era, said Intex director Keshav Bansal.

Crypto Prices

The price of Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency market rose by 0.04 per cent in the last 24 hours, and it was trading at $21,114.64 at 4:30 pm IST. According to Coinmarketcap.com, its dominance in the crypto market is currently at 44.35 per cent, down by 0.11 per cent in the last 24 hours.

In the last 24 hours, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $1,102.32, down by 1.23 per cent, while Binance Coin (BNB) was up by 1.01 per cent during the same time period, and it was trading at $218.76. Solana (SOL) was up by 1.98 per cent to $31.86, while Cardano (ADA) was up by 1.25 per cent to $0.4951.

Meme Coins

Dogecoin was trading at $0.05772 at 5:00 pm IST, up by 2.70 per cent on Coinmarketcap.com. Its rival, Shiba Inu, was up by 1.55 per cent, and it was trading at $0.000008238. Samoyedcoin was up by 0.53 per cent, and it was trading at $0.004098, while Dogelon Mars was up by 2.56 per cent, and it was trading at $0.0000002765.

Overall Scenario

According to Coinmarketcap.com, the global crypto market cap was at $908.20 billion, a decrease of 0.14 per cent in the last 24 hours, while the total crypto market volume was $75.24 billion, a decrease of 29.77 per cent.

SIRIN LAB TOKENS (SRN) was the biggest gainer, gaining 1,371.19 per cent. It was trading at $0.0204 at 4:30 pm IST, according to Coinmarketcap. In contrast, Etherstones (ETHS) witnessed the maximum loss and fell by 100 per cent. It was trading at $0.000000137.

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Over 70 Crypto Currencies Have Lost 90% Of Their Value Since Their Peak, Bitcoin Rises - Outlook India

Taiwan needs to increase its deterrent military strength because Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping does not need to believe he must win in order to start a war. The Wests demonstrated failure to inflict sufficient battlefield costs on the Russian army in Ukraine, to block Russian energy exports to Europe, or to target sanctions on Russias elites and consumers, means that Beijing sees a lengthy war of attrition as a viable strategy against Taipei and its allies. Recent policy choices in China demonstrate that the survival, or even the legitimacy of the CCP, will not depend on a victorious amphibious landing, as it did with Argentina in its invasion of the Falklands Islands in 1982. Xis increasingly successful authoritarian pattern of rule, including his prioritization of his personal control over the CCP, and consolidation of military backing, shows that the party will be resilient enough to bear the economic costs of an extended campaign. This can be seen in Xis exploitation of policy challenges as opportunities for public demonstrations of CCP power, regardless of cost.

Xis assertion of CCP power has become more important to cement public deference to his rule, than the actual success of a given policy. The PRCs political structure is an authoritarian bureaucracy, with power concentrated pyramidically in a personality-dominated cabinet at the top; there is a natural tendency to compete to dominate this peak, which is often achieved by public displays of authority. Xis authoritarianism is driven by a political insecurity born of his lack of administrative achievements compared to his predecessors, and the initial paucity of military loyalists in the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA). This is because Xi was appointed as a compromise candidate between opposing factions. There is no better way to probe into Xis assertiveness than by his use of the term which appeared in his 2018 New Years message. The proverb translates to plow a path through a mountain, to build a bridge when blocked by a river, which is Xis self-conscious portrayal that his will is undeterrable.

There are two effects. First, Xis need to demonstrate authority leads him to formulate brutally unsophisticated policies, as he tries to control the uncontrollable, such as his zero-Covid policy. Second, according to Xie Fanpings account (Governed by Politburo Standing Committee), Xi buttresses his political strength by prioritizing the backing of the military, in exchange for military influence on foreign policy, especially over Taiwan.

Xi is disregarding the conventional wisdom that the CCP should be focusing on Chinese economic growth, despite the likelihood that Chinas GDP may have already plateaued in 2018. Xis demonstrations of CCP power are visible in Beijings zero-COVID approach in Shanghai, inflicting widespread economic disruption in what is the powerbase for his principal adversary, the Jiang Zemin faction (in power 1993-2003). Justified by the low vaccination rate among Chinas elderly, Xi pushed this policy through the CCPs Central Committee meeting on April 29, 2022, with the consequence that not a single car was sold in Shanghai that month. Left to fester, the failure to deal decisively with the Omicron outbreak, may produce new factors , that could imperil Xis stature at the upcoming 20th National Congress, in late 2022.

Xi also uncompromisingly pursued the 2020 triple-red-line crack-down on the unstable housing bubble, as well as a policy that has dramatically slowed CO2 emissions since 2010. The accelerating trend in outsourced manufacturing from China, the consequent threat to foreign investment, market contractions, and the food security issue made worse by the disruption of grain exports from Ukraine, further threaten sharp drops in economic growth. Xi faces the universally intractable challenge of raising birth rates amidst the shrinkage of the labour pool, without being able to ideologically justify imposing restrictions on abortion services and other cornerstone provisions of communist-led socio-economic development.

This draconian approach is also evident in Xis mistreatment of the Uyghurs of Xinjiang, despite his father cautioning prudence and supported autonomous governance, and the unconcealed crackdown against liberal protestors in Hong Kong. While Xis predecessors dealt ruthlessly with the demonstrations leading-up to the 1989 June 4 Incident, Falun-Gong, and the 1995 elections in Taiwan, these policies were accompanied by far greater caution in foreign policy. In contrast, Xi has stoked diplomatic hostility with Australia, and Canada. Beijing is demonstrating that it will be able to manage the significant economic costs to China and the world of a war over Taiwan.

The CCP is a paramilitary organization that was born in the chaos of war, with the PLA the constitutional protector of the party, not China. (Qiang Gan Zi Li Chu Zheng Quan) means that political authority is acquired through gun barrels: implying that power is fundamentally coercive, and succession is conducted by usurpation. Despite the CCP sharing some similarities with the Soviet and Russian system, both being legacy communist bodies, politics in Beijing is far more factionalized, a characteristic since before Deng Xiaoping (in power 1982-1997). Jiang Zemin prolonged his control of the PLA during Hu Jintaos administration (2002-2012). to protect the interests of his crony generals.

Xi started to supplant Jiangs influence in the Central Military Commission (CMC) as early as 2014. This began with the prosecution of pro-Jiang General Xu Caihou, who was a key conduit for promotions and appointments beginning in Hus era, followed by another Jiang loyalist General Guo Boxiong. Others, like Guos associate General Fang Fenghui, and General Zhang Yang, committed suicide. Xi replaced 16 four-star generals and removed the critics of his appointment of new loyalists. The increased saliency of Chinas war propaganda mollifies the military, and satisfies the CCPs goal of promising to resolve Mao Zedongs unfinished civil war over Taiwan.

There is nevertheless resistance by broader minded military leaders. The leak of the May 14th meeting of the Guangdong Joint Military-Local Command Departments , may reflect concerns with Xis strategy. The conference explicitly described Xis intention to prepare for a regional conflict, with emphasis on the South China Sea, the first island chain, general mobilization, and military logistics. Also discussed was the Chinese diaspora, ideology unification, the destruction of foreign powers, never to allow Taiwanese independence, and the defense of national sovereignty.

One now-disappeared Xi skeptic, is PLA Air Force General Liu Yazhou, who was arrested and accused in 2022 of having been corrupted by the US officials, with the intent of causing a Soviet Union-like collapse of China. His brother is adjunct political science professor Liu Yawei at Emory University, and he is author of an important book on strategic studies, , which discusses the integration of technology in air force operations. According to the former Director of the Center on Chinese Strategy at the Hudson Institute, Michael Pillsbury, Yazhou would understand that the benefits of Chinese-US cooperation cannot be offset, by what he calls the monumental mistake of a war over Taiwan.

There is the egregiously cynical conclusion that Xi may risk a war over Taiwan knowing that any less-than victorious outcome will increase his influence within the PLA and permit him to further reduce opposing factions and disloyal officers. The responsibility for any military setback, as long as it is not catastrophic, can be shifted onto the PLA, which will perversely strengthen the stature of the CCP and increase the PLAs dependence on the party. This is similar to Maos use of the Korean War (1950-53) to eliminate former Kuomintang officers and soldiers, who were re-organized into 14 PLA Armies, the majority of which were deployed to the front, suffering exceptional losses in a protracted conflict.

Taiwans current deterrent posture assumes that China will not initiate a conflict it does not believe it can win quickly enough to secure a fait accompli, and avoid economic and domestic Chinese costs from a Western naval blockade. However, Taipei has not accounted for Xis prioritization of control over the CCP rather than sensitivity to domestic economic costs, as is evident in a slew of recent policy initiatives coming out of the Politburo Standing Committee. Nor does the US appreciate that factional benefits will accrue to Xi if the PLA is less that successful in its operations.

Dr. Julian Spencer-Churchill is an associate professor of international relations at Concordia University (Montreal) along with Liu Zongzo.

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Chinas Xi Jinping Could Knowingly Start a War Without Victory - RealClearDefense