Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

By Express News Service

MYSURU:Irked by former CM H D Kumaraswamys charge that he had played a role in the collapse of the Congress-JDS coalition government, Opposition leader Siddaramaiah accused the former of running the government from a star hotel, and not taking MLAs into confidence.If I had plans of pulling down the Kumaraswamy government, I would not give my consent to make him CM as the JDS had just 38 MLAs, Siddaramaiah said at a Congress workers meet here on Friday.

He accused Kumaraswamy of being inaccessible to ministers and failing to listen to their grievances, and felt that the government would not have collapsed if he had reciprocated. Claiming that 14 party MLAs would not have left if the Congress had not supported the JDS, he hit out at Kumaraswamy for joining hands with the BJP after enjoying power with the support of the Congress.

Accusing the BJP government of being against social justice, Siddaramaiah said instead of accepting the caste-based socio-economic report to roll out constitutional benefits to the deserving, leaders are busy announcing caste-based corporations. The Ahinda leader said the special component funds for SCs and STs had been reduced to `21,000 crore from `36,000 crore, and was sure that Dalits would not vote for the BJP.

Criticising the anti-cow bill, Siddaramaiah claimed he would not hesitate to eat beef as it is his personal choice. He accused the government of misgovernance, saying that CM B S Yediyurappa and his son B Y Vijayendra had indulged in corruption, and accepted money through cheque and RTGS. The government had reduced rice for the poor from 7kg to 5kg, and was conspiring to shut down APMCs in the next five years, he added.

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14 MLAs wouldn't have left if Congress hadn't supported JDS: Siddaramaiah - The New Indian Express

The cradle of the Arab Spring, Tunisias 2011 Jasmine revolution secured a hard-fought democratic transition. However, unemployment rates remain high and frustration lingers as economic progress has yet to materialise.

On December 17, 2010, a twenty-six-year-old Tunisian fruit seller Mohammed Bouazizi set fire to himself in protest outside a government office in the dreary centre-west town of Sidi Bouzid, after a policewoman humiliated him while confiscating his wares, claiming he had no permit to engage in street vending.

In a matter of days, his act of defiance set off a revolutionary movement that rippled across the Middle East and North Africa, toppling authoritarian regimes in what became popularly known as the Arab Spring.

On January 14, 2011, nationwide protests led by collective actions by workers ousted Tunisias long-serving autocratic president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, in what was dubbed the Jasmine revolution. In Egypt, crowds forced Hosni Mubarak from power after three decades as president. Uprisings shook Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen.

Though its path to democracy has been far smoother than in places like Syria, Yemen and Libya where bloody civil wars continue to this day its economy has deteriorated and political leadership has been beset by paralysis.

Leila Bouazizi, Mohammeds sister, admitted that the revolt that followed in 2011has done little to substantially solve the economic issues that pushed her brother over the edge.

Everyone thought the government would do something, she said from Quebec, where she moved to study in 2013 and has lived ever since.

Unfortunately, it did nothing, she added, saying she was very disappointed in the outcome of the uprising, even though it brought down the countrys long-time ruler and installed a fragile democratic system.

She criticised the lack of solid measures to reform the countrys failing health system or fix its decrepit infrastructure. And despite some political progress, young people in marginalised regions such as Sidi Bouzid still face unemployment three times the national average.

With rising prices, stagnant incomes and few opportunities even for the highly educated, the situation might even be worse now than before the revolution, Leila said.

Democracy isnt built in a day

Tunisia holds the distinction of being the sole democracy to emerge from the Arab Spring, and since 2011 there have been six elections across the country at the municipal, parliamentary and presidential levels.

Last autumn, the countrys second democratically elected president Kais Saied took over in peaceful transition of power after parliamentary elections came forward following the death of former president Beji Caid Essebsi.

What made the Tunisian experiment with democracy more effective in comparison to states like Egypt for example, was its powerful trade union confederation (UGTT) which has long acted as a "third force" in Tunisian society and a segment of its working class that maintained independence from the state.

It was nationwide strikes, pushed by the rank and file supported by UGTT, that eventually helped force a democratic transition.

But as history shows, democracy isnt built overnight. The creation of a multi-party democracy across every governance level requires people who are trained to understand how democracy functions and to build a resilient institutional infrastructure, something that the Centre des Etudes Mediterraneennes et Internationales (CEMI), a Tunis-based research institute that focuses on democratisation, is attempting to do.

Economic angst persists

While now able to freely choose their leaders and publicly criticise the state, many Tunisians remain dissatisfied that the democratic process is yet to yield the socio-economic advancements they expected, leaving them as angry as they were a decade ago.

Since 2011, outbursts of popular rebellion demanding jobs and economic development have erupted periodically.

Most recently this year, while celebrating the ninth anniversary since Ben Alis ouster on January 14 in Tunis, several hundreds gathered in the square in front of UGTT headquarters, chanting Work! Freedom! Dignity! suggesting those goals have not yet been achieved.

UGTT secretary-general Nouredinne Taboubi addressed the crowd, lamenting the lack of progress since the start of Tunisias democratic transition and said: The revolution will go on until the real republic has been established.

Mongi Merzgui, secretary general of the national union of sanitation workers, mirrored those same concerns: Im really disappointedwe have freedom of expression, but that cant create jobs or feed us.

The OECDs 2018 Economic Survey of Tunisia confirms those anxieties: economic conditions haven't drastically improved for the countrys youth and women, especially in the western and southern regions.

Real wages across most sectors have declined, while annual GDP growth has hovered around 1.7 percent since 2011. Capital investment has sagged, the national unemployment rate is over 15 percent and youth unemployment is at 30 percent.

Furthermore, a $2.9 billion IMF loan in 2016 pushed a wage freeze and devaluation of the Tunisian dinar, which drove inflation up to an annual rate of 7.6 percent by 2018.

Added to that was the collapse of the phosphate mining industry, the countrys largest source of income, which was severely impacted by the revolution. Before 2011, it was producing 8 million tonnes annually, making it the worlds fifth largest phosphate exporter.

Following the Jasmine revolution in 2011 and in part to persistent labour disputes, mining output drastically fell by over 50 percent, hitting rock bottom by 2018. While phosphate production still accounts for around 2 percent of Tunisias GDP, the industrys struggles have been emblematic of the countrys structural issues.

As swathes of the countrys marginalised fail to realise any material improvement in their livelihoods, many are illegally trying to leave the country and attempting dangerous sea crossings to Europe, while alienated and jobless youth are increasingly lured by extremist recruiting.

Not to mention dozens of young people have continued to set themselves alight every year since the revolution began a misery that lingers a decade following Bouazizis fatal act of defiance and indicates that despair is far from being alleviated.

Source: TRTWorld and agencies

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Ten years since Bouazizis fatal act of defiance, where does Tunisia stand? - TRT World

The Philippines has been in a vulnerable position since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. This vulnerability can be explained by four factors: firstly, the close social and economic ties and geographical proximity between China and the Philippines. Secondly, the constant flow of outward migration of Filipino contract workers and, with cyclical migration, an increasingly mobile population. Thirdly, a weak public healthcare system that is a legacy of decades of inadequate financing because of prioritisation of debt service. And last but not least, significant social and economic inequalities. As a result of these pre-existing conditions, the crisis has been acutely felt by the population of the country.

In February, the Philippines experienced the first Covid-19 death outside China. Since then, the country has reported more than 304,266 active cases and a total of 5,344 deaths caused by Covid-19. In response to the pandemic, the government enforced lockdown measures from 16 March. The Philippines ended up with one of the longest and most strict lockdowns in the region. However, deep inequalities, a lack of adequate safety nets and a strained healthcare system affected the ability of these measures to contain the spread of the pandemic. On July 31, 80 groups representing 80,000 doctors and one million nurses said the country was losing its fight against Covid-19. They warned about the potential collapse of the healthcare system unless stricter measures and recalibrated strategies were put in place by the government.

In the meantime, the population of the country has been left to deal with the economic consequences.. Before the pandemic, the economy was projected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2020. Since then, the Fund has slashed its provisions and the economy is now set to decrease by 3.6 per cent in 2020. As a result of this sharp downturn millions of people have lost their livelihoods. An estimated 7.3 million people have temporarily or permanently lost their jobs. The Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) estimates that around 10 million workers may lose their jobs this year. Hunger and poverty are on the rise, and the number of families experiencing hunger increased from 2.1 million in December 2019 to 4.2 million in May 2020. The government estimates that without any support measures, there will be an additional 5.5 million people living in poverty.

In addition to this, the pandemic has also had clear consequences for gender equallity. These consequences are largely shaped by pre-existing multiple and intersecting discrimination faced by women in the Philippines. They are over-represented in the informal economy and in paid and unpaid care work, and under-represented in formal employment, including decision-making structures and processes in the home and public spheres, as well as in ownership of land and other assets. In addition to economic inequality, women in the country are also highly vulnerable to domestic violence. Since the start of the lockdown in March until mid-June, more than 4,200 cases of violence against women and children have been reported by the Philippine National Police (PNP).

The government of the Philippines has put in place a four-pillar strategy to address the impact of the pandemic. Pillar 1 consists of emergency support for vulnerable groups and individuals amounting to 11 per cent of GDP. Pillar 1 is partly funded from an Asian Development Bank (ADB) grant for rapid emergency supplies. Pillar 2 funds expanded medical services to fight Covid-19 with a budget amounting to 0.3 per cent of GDP and has received World Bank financing. Pillar 3 is composed of programs to finance small businesses for an amount equivalent to 0.6 per cent of GDP. Lastly, Pillar 4 provides social protection for vulnerable workers, including displaced and overseas Filipino workers, totalling 0.3 per cent of GDP. In total, the government has mobilised resources for 3.1 per cent of GDP (US$ 12.2 billion).

As well as being insufficient to contain the socio-economic impact of the crisis on the population, the Covid-19 response package has also caused an unprecedented increase in debt. Public debt is expected to increase from 34.1 to 48 per cent of GDP between 2019 and 2020. Before the start of the pandemic, external creditors held claims on the public sector equivalent to 13.9 per cent of GDP. Their participation in the overall composition of debt is likely to fall further as most of the financing during 2020 has come from domestic sources. In the short term, this has helped the country to avoid requesting emergency financing from the IMF. The large share of domestic debt has allowed the government to finance its operations without external support. Actions of the government have been supported by the central bank of the country, which has reduced its interest rates four times over 2020.

However, the lack of support from the international community for countries like the Philippines has stark costs. As a middle-income country, the Philippines is excluded from participating in the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI). Before the crisis, the country had an annual debt service requirement equal tor 6.6 per cent of GDP. This figure is about to increase substantially as a result of the pandemic. Without measures to address the debt burden, and few options to increase revenue, the only choice left is to implement harsh austerity measures. The government has already laid out plans for significant fiscal consolidation starting in 2021, which is likely to increase the hardships being experienced by the population.

It is imperative that countries such as the Philippines are not left alone to fend for themselves. Lenders need to acknowledge the illegitimate character of a large share of the debts incurred by developing countries. In addition to this, we need to recognise the existence of historical, social and ecological debts tied to the legacy of colonial and post-colonial exploitation of countries in the global south. It is only when those debts have been acknowledged and cancelled that developing countries will have a chance to recover.

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The Philippines, Covid-19 and debt: Left alone to deal with the pandemic - EURODAD

There is no future for business as usual. Our current economic system, which arguably has succeeded in creating unprecedented economic output, wealth and human welfare over the past 70 years, has led to exacerbated social inequalities and loss of nature at an extent that threatens the stability of our economies and societies and could maybe even lead to a collapse of civilisation as we know it.

To add some numbers: over 70% of us are affected by rising inequalities, a third of the worlds land is severely degraded, we are losing forests at an alarming rate (one football field of forests every six seconds in 2019), and up to 1 million species are threatened with extinction. Over half of the worlds GDP ($44 trillion) is threatened by such nature loss. The system is not working.

Turning the tide requires deep transformations of socio-economic systems, as highlighted by the World Economic Forums New Nature Economy Report II on The Future of Nature and Business. For example, the sustainable management of forests can create $230 billion in business opportunities and 16 million jobs by 2030. Shifting the energy and extractives socio-economic system to circular and resource-efficient models can lead to $2.3tn in business opportunities and 30 million jobs by 2030, and working with nature in the infrastructure and built environment system can generate a total of $3 trillion business opportunities and 117 million jobs by 2030.

To accelerate the transformation towards a climate- and nature-positive economy, His Royal Highness The Prince of Wales has established The Circular Bioeconomy Alliance. The Alliance activities are guided by a 10-point Action Plan, co-created by a multi-stakeholder coalition with the goal to place nature back at the centre of our economy.

I have been deeply encouraged by the number of scientists and practitioners who have come together to develop a 10-point Circular Bioeconomy Action Plan inspired by my Sustainable Markets Initiative and its Circular Bioeconomy Alliance," he said.

"It is time for leaders, across all disciplines, to step forward, be bold in their ambition and demonstrate what is possible so that others can follow.

A circular bioeconomy offers a conceptual framework for using renewable natural capital to transform and manage our land, food, health and industrial systems, with the goal of achieving sustainable wellbeing in harmony with nature.

While the circular bioeconomy needs advanced technology and innovation as well as traditional knowledge to succeed, it ultimately relies on biodiversity as its true engine. This is because biodiversity determines the capacity of biological systems to adapt and evolve in a changing environment, and therefore is crucial for ensuring the resilience and sustainability of our biological resources. We need to acknowledge this fundamental role, not only through appropriate conservation measures, but also through regionally-tailored market-based instruments to provide incentives for farmers, forest owners and biobased companies to invest back in biodiversity.

Biological resources are central to a circular bioeconomy

Moving towards a climate- and nature-positive economy not only means replacing fossil energy with renewable energy, it also means moving to fossil-free materials, substituting carbon-intense products like plastics, concrete, steel and synthetic textiles for lower carbon alternatives. This helps to mitigate climate change and also provides other positive environmental impacts. A climate- and nature-positive economy is simply not possible without using a new range of renewable biobased materials that can replace and outperform carbon-intense materials.

The global population is expected to reach close to 9 billion people by 2030 inclusive of 3 billion new middle-class consumers.This places unprecedented pressure on natural resources to meet future consumer demand.

A circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention and design. It replaces the end-of-life concept with restoration, shifts towards the use of renewable energy, eliminates the use of toxic chemicals and aims for the elimination of waste through the superior design of materials, products, systems and business models.

Nothing that is made in a circular economy becomes waste, moving away from our current linear take-make-dispose economy. The circular economys potential for innovation, job creation and economic development is huge: estimates indicate a trillion-dollar opportunity.

The World Economic Forum has collaborated with the Ellen MacArthur Foundation for a number of years to accelerate the Circular Economy transition through Project MainStream - a CEO-led initiative that helps to scale business driven circular economy innovations.

Join our project, part of the World Economic Forums Shaping the Future of Environment and Natural Resource Security System Initiative, by contacting us to become a member or partner.

This shift is also an opportunity to modernize and make industries more circular: renewable biological resources like forest resources, are, if managed sustainably, circular by nature and often easier to remanufacture. Indeed sustainable forestry and wood products were the basis for original circular economies around the world. Several important sectors like chemicals, textiles, plastics or construction now need new conceptual business models and innovations to become more circular and lower carbon industries. The circular bioeconomy can be a catalyst.

For example, we can now transform wood, the most versatile biological material on earth, into a new revolutionary material called nanocellulose: five times stronger than steel but also five times lighter. The first car made of nanocellulose was unveiled last year in Japan. A new generation of sustainable and circular wood-based textiles with a five-times lower carbon footprint than plastic fibres like polyester is now possible too. Engineered wood products, such as Cross Laminate Timber (CLT),are the most effective way to reduce the carbon footprint of our buildings and the construction sector, currently dominated by two carbon-intense and resource-intense materials: concrete and steel.

Since biological resources, even if renewable, are not unlimited, it is essential to stress the need to ensure sustainable, regenerative and circular forestry or feedstock systems. We need to develop business models and design products and services in new ways to decouple business prosperity from the mere consumption of products. It is also about making products that can be easily reused and recycled, minimising waste and maximising their value along their life cycle.

An opportunity to tackle inequality

One of the most important societal challenges of this century is to address inequalities and to ensure inclusive prosperity, including jobs and infrastructures in rural and depressed areas. The way biological resources are owned and distributed and even the difficulties related to their mobilisation, transport and processing offer potential opportunities. Forest resources in Europe are a good example: they occupy more than 40% of the land and are owned by about 16 million forest owners. The forest-based sector already now includes around 400,000 companies, mostly small enterprises, and provides more than 3 million jobs. This is a very valuable socio-ecological infrastructure that needs to be acknowledged and nurtured. It is true that mobilising, transporting and processing fossil resources like oil is much easier than producing, managing (for 100 years), transporting and processing wood. But this difficulty is at the same time its strength: redistributing wealth, jobs and infrastructures will ensure that we have human capital ready to take care of our natural capital.

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What's a 'circular bioeconomy' and how can it save the planet? - World Economic Forum

What do cities reveal about the human condition?

In Social Justice and the City, David Harvey states that cities are, foremost, a result of the human desire to remake the world we live in and in building cities we have remade ourselves.

Hence, the question centring cities also revolves around us.

Since 1950, the number of people living in cities has quintupled. In the world, we already have more than 3.5 billion city dwellers and this number is going to surpass six billion in the next 30 years. This is not just statistics; the change also entails fundamental transformations of the human condition -- the ways we live and the ways our lives are structured.

A class phenomenon

Considering the concomitant expansion of cities with capitalism, it is no exaggeration to refer to cities as a class phenomenon of sorts. For instance, a declaration of a public holiday was announced in Bangladesh on March 26 to reduce the risks of spreading Covid-19; however, we have witnessed some extraordinary scenes of people leaving the capital.

People leaving Dhaka in cramped modes of mass transport echo the sentiment that the city is not theirs. One may argue that they were unaware of the risks of mass travel or did not trust the authorities about the threats of Covid-19 but the rush of people -- the working-class -- out of the city showed that Dhaka is not inclusive.

They understood that daily necessities would not be available during lockdown or that they would experience syndicated price hikes.

An additional factor that instigated mass travel to villages is the idea of the home vis--vis the city. Most working-class people living in Dhaka consider their status to be transitory.

Either they want to return to the home-village after overcoming the socio-economic crisis that forced them to migrate in the first place or establish themselves in Dhaka so that they can build a home in the city.

It is not just about finding a job and renting a place -- rather, what makes the transitory phase for the working-class longer is the difficulty of gaining enough means to support family members in Dhaka. Thus, their home remains in the villages.

Imagined fortunes

Dhaka usually appears in the imagination of the villagers as a place where they can make their fortune. However, Dhaka became the centre of the crisis during the Covid-19 pandemic which forced a certain class of people to leave.

However, it is usually believed that people living on the margins of society suffer from chronic crisis, making the difference between crisis and normalcy almost insignificant. Essentially, factors of long-term crises such as violence and poverty become embedded in the social fabric.

Even though the urban poor live in precarious conditions, they do not expect normalcy any time soon. But the pandemic produced additional burdens, such as the sudden loss of income and thus, influencing their return to the villages.

Covid-19 did not cause unprecedented human suffering if we consider the nature of the crisis and disregard its scale. Despite widespread luxuries, cities are places where we face the greatest catastrophes.

Globally, even though governments insist on eliminating social division, injustice, and inequality, what we aim to eliminate becomes strikingly visible through human tragedies such as the 2017 Grenfell Tower fire in London and the 2019 Chawkbazar fire tragedy in Dhaka.

Urban growth and the human cost

Unchecked urban growth is responsible for inadequate infrastructure. While our economy becomes concentrated in cities, villages lack effective demand creation -- the vicious cycle continues to grow, pushing more and more people to the cities.

This massive migration is poised for exploitation and surplus extraction. Eventually, urban growth negatively affects human lives, diminishing safety and the quality of life.

One extreme outcome of this process was the Rana Plaza collapse that killed more than 1,100 garment factory workers. Back in 2013, many factory managers allegedly forced workers to continue production under unsafe conditions with threats of sacking and withholding salary.

This kind of human tragedy is common. Workers are forced to work in perilous conditions so that cities can sustain their glamour.

An altered socio-political landscape

Urbanization alters the political landscape. The middle-class who have become property owners are more concerned with protecting their property and individualized identities. The working-class, on the other hand, lack a sense of belonging. This creates the possibility for a political struggle.

City dwellers, in the race to an imagined fortune, choose a lifestyle of work-eat-sleep-repeat which contributes to feelings of alienation. And rapid urbanization shrinks walkable spaces, playgrounds, and neighbourhoods, making it difficult to foster a sense of community.

Cities succeed in absorbing the surplus population who do not have access to means of production but at the cost of deepening social inequality. In cities, while certain segments of population are continuously benefitted, others are denied access to the new prosperity.

We see the mushrooming of gated communities, five-star hotels, shopping malls, and restaurants. These illusions have been created by the privileged classes for themselves, but theres no denying the injustice that continues to exist.

Fluidity of cities

The human condition in cities shows a need to reconceptualize the idea of the city. It must be fluid in nature in order to accommodate those who reside temporarily within its borders.

Dhaka grows on the backs of people who find it difficult to become a part of it, revealed by the growing squatters, rates of unemployment, and sustained income inequality. Within the circuits of production and accumulation, capital shapes the spaces and relationships in cities.

However, the mass movement out of the city when it was shutdown reflects how the capitalist hegemony failed to dictate or obfuscate peoples relationships.

According to Patrick Geddes, a city is more than a place in space. It is a drama in time. Still relevant as cities now host some of humanitys greatest challenges.

We must not only work towards a fair distribution of what already exists but transform the nature of the city for the better.

Mohammad Tareq Hasan is an anthropologist and teaches at the University of Dhaka. This piece is written for the series: Contemporary City Dynamics.

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OP-ED: As the city grows - Dhaka Tribune

The World Bank report states there are considerable downside risks to the outlook of Pakistans economy with the most significant being a possible resurgence of coronavirus. Image Credit: Reuters

Islamabad: A World Bank report fearing the worst recession in Pakistan over the next two years has warned an increase in poverty coupled with muted and uncertain economic recovery owing to adverse impacts of COVID-19.

The report says Pakistans economy has been severely impacted by measures taken to contain the pandemic. Economic activity contracted and poverty is likely to have risen in FY20, as monetary and fiscal policy tightening, earlier in the year, was followed by lockdowns.

Key findings of the new report released estimate that 930,000 additional children are expected to drop out from both primary and secondary education.

Speaking ahead of the report launch on Wednesday Hartwig Schafer, World Banks vice president for the South Asia region, said: The collapse of South Asian economies during Covid-19 has been more brutal than anticipated, worst of all for small businesses and informal workers who suffer sudden job losses and vanishing wages.

In Pakistan as many as 22 million children are already out of school, and this represents an increase of almost 4.2 per cent of Pakistans student population.

Major impact

While the real impact of the pandemic on various sectors has yet to be ascertained, one of the major impacts is the highest expected dropout rates of children from school in Pakistan due to fears of coronavirus.

Pakistan is globally the country where we expect the highest dropouts due to the COVID-19 crisis in relative terms, says the report.

The estimate is based on the observed income elasticity of education for various socio-economic quintiles and is based on the June 2020 growth estimates for Pakistan which were estimated to be negative 4.4 per cent.

The report says the loss of 930,000 children from the school system translates into an increase of 1.3 percentage points in the share of children out of school given that there are 65 million school-age children in the country. This means that the share of children out of school will go up from 27.3 per cent to 28.6 per cent.

The report says that learning poverty will go up to 79 per cent, whereas the level of learning poor in Pakistan was already high at 75 per cent, based on official government data.

Meanwhile, the National Institute of Health (NIH) has advised health authorities to declare high alert due to possibility of rapid spread of seven diseases including COVID-19 during winter season.

Rapidly spread

In an advisory called Seasonal Awareness and Alert Letter (Saal) it has been informed that the diseases such as COVID-19, Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever virus, dengue fever, diphtheria, pertussis, seasonal flu and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) typhoid can spread rapidly during October to February.

According to a statement issued by the NIH, the main purpose of SAAL is to alert all health authorities and professionals concerned at all levels for timely and efficient response to the outbreaks/epidemics.

Pakistan on Thursday reported 316,934 confirmed cases of coronavirus, 583 in last twenty-four hours and 6,544 deaths, nine casualties in last day. The number of recoveries in Pakistan crossed 302,375 while there are 497 critical cases in the country.

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COVID-19: Poverty in Pakistan expected to worsen, claims World Bank report - Gulf News

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed by this author are their own and do not represent the official position of the Barbados Today.

by Ralph Jemmott

The most obviously recurring word in contemporary Barbadian discourse is the term transformation. Everyone wants to effect a transformation of something. This is not surprising given the array of things that are going wrong, and we understandably want to see an improvement.

Transformation is a strong word. It implies a significant turnaround in a condition, a fundamental, positive departure from a negative norm.

However, few of the would-be transformers seem to know exactly what it is they want to change or how precisely they would bring about the alteration.

Too often the prescription for change reflects little more than happy talk, Pollyanna type glimpses of a brighter future that ignores the existential difficulties of overcoming the harsh realities of our time.

For World Tourism Day, Minister Senator Lisa Cummins message was about improving the sector through digital transformation. The reality is that as the message itself points out, the UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) sees 100 to 120 million tourism jobs as being at risk because of the global pandemic.

Minister Cummins herself admits that since March over 10, 000 tourism professionals have been furloughed as many of Barbados accommodations and attractions have been forced to close. She rightfully concluded that: We will continue to face challenges in the short and medium term.

One cannot be sure that even with the best of intentions, the transformation of Barbados tourism is in our hands. The Coronavirus may have the last word. There will be no transformation of tourism until the cruise ship and land-based visitors decide to return in their significant numbers.

Professor Michael Howard is on record as saying that Barbados will only start to emerge from this recession if the tourism industry is restored to over 60 per cent or more occupancy.

The Barbados Welcome Stamp is a good idea, but it is unlikely that it can fill the void left by the decline in the tourism sector.

In August, Archdeacon Eric Lynch called on Barbadians to band together to transform the unjust structures of society. Invariably, the talk of injustice centres around socio-economic disparities. Some measure of inequality is baked intomaterial culture.

One cannot remove inequalities from a capitalist economy, though one should always seek to mitigate or eliminate systemic unfairness.

An egalitarian society can only be fashioned in the context of a thorough political revolution which, more often than not, creates its own injustices.

If there are specific injustices to be eliminated, then say what they are and address them specifically. Archdeacon Lynch must tell us exactly what are the systemic injustices in Barbadian society?

Human beings must be at the centre of transformative change. There has to be substantive popular buy-in to the transforming enterprise. The notion that, we are all in this together must be more than a catch phrase.

Barbados was built on its human capital, more specifically on its commitment to law, order and a modicum of social discipline.

Regrettably, our human capital is diminishing. The values consensus has dissolved and we are seeing the emergence of a ghettoised underclass that is defiant of traditional mainstream values. How are we planning to transform that?

Eventually, the discourse about transforming Barbados cannot escape the reality that we are currently living in a resource constraining environment.

The truth is that the Barbadian economy is weak. It grew by a mere 0.6 per cent in 2019 pre-COVID and its performance is unlikely to improve post-COVID. We have already seen a 27 per cent decline of economic output in the second quarter of 2020.

This is not to negate the efforts of the present administration to bring the economy into some measure of equilibrium.

We have seen an ordering of the fiscal balance, debt restructuring, and some restoration of the reserves. The Pandemic has upset the apple cart.

There is nothing that can immediately replace the gains from tourism. Local manufacturing cannot compete in a global market. Agriculture may be for self-sufficiency, but it is unlikely to be export competitive. The Council of the European Union seems determined to blacklist Barbados as a non-cooperative jurisdiction for tax purposes.

This, in spite of the fact that Barbados has amended some 15 pieces of legislation over the past 18 months in order to comply with EU regulations.

The EUs position has had and continues to have adverse financial consequences for Barbados in terms of its competitiveness in the International Business sector.

In a statement to the Press (The Nation. August 26, 2020), Professor Howard indicated why, in the present circumstances, he is very pessimistic.

He listed four other economic problems posed by the COVID-19 crisis. The first is large scale unemployment, the second is a sharp decline in sales in the private sector, another is the collapse of many private sector enterprises, heavy National Insurance Scheme disbursements and equally heavy severance payments by private business.

Transformation may be a consummation devoutly to be wished, but far more difficult to achieve.

Ralph Jemmott is a retired educator.

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#BTColumn - Transformation must be real - Barbados Today

The resumption of Azerbaijani-Armenian hostilities over the Karabakh region, located only 560 kilometers from Georgias capital of Tbilisi, has raised concerns within the Georgian government about the consequences of this conflict for the country, which faces tough parliamentary elections on October 31.

On October 3, following a week of intensive military clashes up and down the occupied districts of Azerbaijan, the National Security Council (NSC) of Georgia, an advisory body chaired by the prime minister, announced a temporary ban on transiting military cargos through Georgian territory to Azerbaijan and Armenia. The ban, which Tbilisi communicated to both belligerents, covers transit via air as well as land routes. However, the NSC emphasized that civilian goods can continue to be delivered to Armenia and Azerbaijan via Georgia without any restrictions. The Armenian-Azerbaijani fighting has been a rare occasion when the ruling Georgian Dream (GD) and the major opposition parties actually agree on what Georgias stance should beneutrality and seeking a swift de-escalation of the conflict (Agenda.ge, Civil.ge, October 34).

The Georgian government has, so far in vain, attempted to offer Tbilisi as a venue for international peace negotiations. On September 30, Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia suggested that the capital host a meeting of Azerbaijani and Armenian representatives and members of the Minsk Group (main body responsible for Karabakh conflict resolution)France, Russia and the United States (JamNews, September 30). None of the key interlocutors formally responded to the invitation. And some Russian officials panned it as unworkable (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, October 5).

Georgia hosts sizeable Armenian (4.53 percent) and Azerbaijani (6.27 percent) diasporas (Geostat.ge, accessed October 7). Thanks in large part to a strict, long-term adherence to neutrality regarding the conflict to its south, Georgia has managed to avoid Azerbaijani-Armenian interethnic clashes on its own territory for decades. But each new escalation reverberates inside Georgia, raising tensions between the local Armenian and Azerbaijani groups.

As the Armenian-Azerbaijani hostilities continued to escalate, Georgia became targeted by a well-coordinated disinformation campaign, evidently designed to try to pit the country against one or more of its warring neighbors. On October 4, the Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs vehemently denied allegations that Georgia was shipping arms to Azerbaijan, and it called on the Armenian population not to believe the false stories circulating in the media (Facebook.com/mfageorgia, October 4). Tbilisi also repudiated claims that Syrian militants were being infiltrated into Azerbaijan from Turkey via Georgia (Civil.ge October 4). In turn, the Armenian embassy in Tbilisi twice refuted information widely disseminated by some Georgian-based but pro-Armenian media outlets that the Georgian authorities were blocking the transit of fuel and humanitarian aid to Armenia while delivering arms to Azerbaijan (Netgazeti.ge, October 2, 6).

Meanwhile, Georgias ethnic-Armenian community protested the pro-Azerbaijani statement of former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili, who emphasized that Karabakh is the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan (Civil.ge, 1tv.ge, October 1; Resonance daily, October 7). The Georgian Ministry of Interior reported on multiple instances of damage done to segments of transnational fiber-optic internet cables in Kvemo Kartlia region neighboring both Armenia and Azerbaijan and densely populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis (Police.ge, October 2) Although Georgian-Azerbaijanis have not resorted to any mass protest or violent actions so far, the situation remains highly conflict-prone; any external or internal trigger could ignite inter-ethnic conflict.

Georgias decision to ban the transfer of military supplies to Armenia and Azerbaijan aroused annoyance from Russia, which has long supplied weapons to both sides. Pro-Kremlin media and Russian experts hinted at the possibility of using military force against Georgia as way to secure the transit of Russian military cargos to its regional ally, Armenia (Apsny.ge, October 1; Vzglyad, October 5; Vesti.ru, October 6). It is worth underscoring that well-equipped Russian troops are stationed only 40 kilometers from Tbilisi, on territories occupied by Moscow following the 2008 Georgian-Russian war.

Despite Georgias friendly ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, the relative quality of these relations differs based on several significant factors. Armenia is a member of the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), while Georgia is a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and European Union aspirant country. Its relations with Azerbaijan are more strategic. Economically, Georgia is more extensively linked to Azerbaijan than Armenia. About 95 percent of Georgias natural gas comes from Azerbaijan (Factcheck.ge, June 17, 2019). If the war sharply intensifies or becomes protracted, it could cause problems for Georgias energy supplies. A prolongation of the conflict could also jeopardize the security of important regional oil and gas pipelines, including BakuSupsa, BakuTbilisiCeyhan and the South Caucasus Pipeline. That said, Georgian-Azerbaijani relations are not cloudless. The Christian Orthodox monastery complex David Gareja (Keshikchidag to Azerbaijanis), which is located along both sides of the conditional Georgian-Azerbaijani borderline, has become a subject of a border dispute leading to several localized incidents and clashes (Agenda.ge, October 10, 2019; see EDM, May 14, 2019, June 6, 2019, July 30, 2019). Currently, the issue is being discussed by a bilateral commission, and the parties claim they will be able to resolve it based on consensus (Agenda.ge, September 24). However, Bakus future attitude to this matter may very well depend on the outcome of the ongoing conflict in Karabakh.

The transformation of hostilities over Karabakh into a full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the possible involvement of Russia and conceivably Turkey, is highly likely to damage the Georgian economy and lead to a collapse of foreign investments, thus further worsening the countrys socio-economic, financial and security situation. The consequences of this downturn would certainly translate to negative political implications for the ruling party on the eve of the elections. Additionally, the risk of violent clashes between Georgian Azerbaijani and Armenian populations may grow (Report.ge, Resonance Daily, October 5).

Other challenges and threats that Georgia might anticipate will heavily depend on whether the conflict continues for an extended period or if international and regional stakeholders manage to broker a credible ceasefire and bring the parties back to the negotiation table.

The current Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is drawing greater international attention to the often-ignored South Caucasian region, which also hosts two other unresolved conflicts, in Georgias secessionist regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Like Karabakh, these conflicts have also been awaiting resolution for nearly three decades.

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How the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict Could Affect Georgia - The Jamestown Foundation

The U.K. economy is set to lose 22 billion ($29 billion) from the collapse of international travel during 2020, according to a report published on Wednesday.

Travelers and tourists are staying away from the U.K. in droves because of continuing uncertainty around travel restrictions designed to curb the spread of Covid-19, the report by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) found.

As a result, international visitor spending this year could plunge by 78% compared with 2019 levels, equating to a loss of 60 million ($79 million) a day, or 420 million a week, to the U.K. economy, according to WTTC estimates.

Read:Global tourism loses $320 billion in first five months of 2020, says UN

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown said the bleak outlook for the travel and tourism sector has been reflected in the stock market.

Carnival CCL, -3.77%, the worlds biggest cruise company, and budget airline easyJet EZJ, +0.02% exited the FTSE 100 earlier this year after a major collapse in their share prices.

For easyJet, there has been a slight recovery this month after bookings came in higher than expected but with some travel corridors closed once again, it is clear the challenges are far from over, Streeter said.

On Wednesday, Carnivals Princess Cruises said that two cruises set to sail in early 2021 would be canceled, blaming border restrictions and the continued uncertainty of airline travel.

We share in the disappointment of this cancellation for guests of our world cruises because it is a pinnacle cruise vacation experience, booked by some of our most loyal guests, Jan Swartz, Princess Cruises president, said in a statement.

Carnival said guests currently booked on these canceled voyages will receive a refundable Future Cruise Credit (FCC) equivalent to 100% of the cruise fare plus an additional nonrefundable FCC equal to 25% of the cruise fare paid.

Read: Some of Europes biggest travel companies are leaving consumers covering the cost of coronavirus holding on to cash while handing out credit notes

The cancellations follow an announcement on Tuesday by Cunard, also owned by Carnival, that its services will be suspended until March 2021. After very careful consideration and reviewing the latest guidance, we simply dont feel it would be sensible to start sailing again with our current schedule so we have reviewed future itineraries, Cunard President Simon Palethorpe said.

Earlier in August, Ryanair RYA, +1.43%, Europes largest airline, announced that it would reduce its flight capacity by 20% during September and October due to a fall in bookings.

Visitors from France and Spain who may have planned a weekend long city break to the UK will now postpone or cancel, given the freshly imposed quarantine rules. Other European tourists may also stay away, not wanting to run the risk of being confined to hotel rooms if new restrictions are brought in, Streeter added.

According to WTTCs 2020 Economic Impact Report, during 2019, travel and tourism was responsible for almost four million U.K. jobs, or 11% of the countrys total workforce. It also generated nearly 200 billion to the U.K. economy last year - around 9% of GDP.

We urgently need to replace stop-start quarantine measures with rapid, comprehensive and cost-effective test and trace programs at departure points across the country, Gloria Guevara, WTTC President & CEO, said. This investment will be significantly less than the impact of blunt quarantines which have devastating and far-reaching socio-economic consequences, she added.

Read:Covid-19 turned the hotel industry upside down, but it wont change what people want

Between 2016 and 2018, the largest inbound source markets to the UK were travelers from the U.S. and France, each accounting for 10% of all international arrivals, with Germany coming in third with 9%, and Ireland and Spain in joint fourth place with 7% each, the WTTC said.

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$79 million a daythats how much the U.K. is losing from tourism collapse - MarketWatch

Sparking outrage and controversy, ex-president Eduardo Duhalde has suggested that there will be no midterm elections next year, anticipating a coup dtat since "Argentina is the world champion of military dictatorships."

The former president, who served in office from 2002 to 2003, also predicted that the country is heading towards "a scenario worse than 2001."

"Nobody can ignore that militarism is making a comeback throughout Latin America," Duhalde told the Animales Sueltos television programme, calling it "ridiculous" to expect elections in such a context.

"Im not saying that the coup will come from [President] Alberto Fernndez, lets not personalise this, he said. Argentina runs that risk because this is such a great disaster this is the most complex presidency weve ever had and could generate a worse climate than begone with them all (a reference to the 2001-2002)."

In the same Monday night interview, the Peronist ex-president suggested that the pandemic was costing President Fernndez sleep when he had already told him that he had to take at least three hours a day off from politics if he wished to escape the fate of other presidents, including Duhalde himself.

"Im convinced that the winners should govern and the losers as well. One party cannot govern alone. The president should not permit himself to talk about the past because the past cannot be changed discussing the past is the task of journalists while leaders should not talk about the past but govern," Duhalde concluded.

Duhaldes statements were promptly rejected by politicians across the spectrum. Defence Minister Agustn Rossi dismissed as "an impossible scenario," asserting: "There is a strong commitment to democracy and the Constitution; I dont see any disaster on the horizon."

Rossi ruled out any coup dtat due to the depth of the socio-economic crisis caused by the coronavirus crisis, including the cancellation of next years midterm elections, saying "the Armed Forces are absolutely integrated into the democratic system, perhaps more than any force on the continent."

Speaking to Radio Rivadavia last Tuesday, Rossi said: "Im in touch with military reality every day and I would say that scenario is impossible in Argentina today," going on to explain:"We have a political system with certain tensions but its a strong system. There were elections last year where one candidate won and the other accepted the result, transferring power, and Congress is functioning despite the pandemic, as is the judiciary."

"We all respect Duhalde for his political history and for having been president at a difficult moment for the country," commented the minister when interviewed by FM Delta radio.

"Of everything he said, what is true is that every couple of years in other Latin American countries the armed forces take on greater relevance [President Jair] Bolsonaro in Brazil, the coup in Bolivia, the decision to close down Congress in Peru but it seems to me that transferring all this to Argentina is a very serious error," Rossi concluded.

'Extremely serious'

Human rights leaders also criticised the remarks. The President of the Grandmothers of Plaza de Mayo, Estela de Carlotto, was among them, describing the comments as "extremely serious" and disastrous.

I am outraged by what this man said," said Carlotto, declaring in a radio interview that never again is never again.

"It is very important to condemn the sayings of Duhalde," she added. "Duhalde tried to explain today, but the truth is that I didn't understand anything he said.

Later on Tuesday, Duhalde reiterated his comments though he said maybe the length of the coronavirus lockdown had lowered the tone of his analysis.

He stressed again, however, that political leaders are not aware of "what is happening with society's poor and the crumbling middle class."

"I say what I think and I believe I have grounds to do so, he added. In 2001, society did not collapse not because I governed, but because I formed a co-government. We must govern together.

"If we continue fighting, we are going towards an anarchic process in Argentina," said the former president.

President Fernndez, who has met with Duhalde on multiple occasions since taking office, remained silent on the issue, though he did retweet a post on Twitter from Vilma Ibarra, Legal and Technical Secretary to the Presidency.

The government , together with the Argentine men and women, is firm and attentive to prevent them from shrinking our democracy, " read the message.

TIMES/PERFIL

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Duhalde widely criticised after suggesting 'coup d'tat' may be on cards - Buenos Aires Times