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This analysis examines the history of protests in Iran before and after the Islamic Revolution, the context and implications of the ongoing protests that began in September 2022, the political capitalisation of these protests by various actors and the possible short-term future of the Islamic Republic.

Modern Iran has witnessed numerous political and social movements that have manifested in popular anti-government demonstrations. Since the 19th century protests have been a common tool for citizens to express their demands and opposition to the governments political and economic decisions, and to call for reforms and changes in the political system, even under the present republic. The legitimacy of the Islamic Republic, established in 1979, like previous political regimes, has been challenged by these protest movements. However, the republic remains stable after more than 40 years of history. The protests that began after Mahsa Aminis death on 16 September 2022 are neither the first nor the last, but they are the most enduring and intense since 1979, and have again called into question the tense relationship between society and political power in Iran. Nevertheless, the resilience and adaptability of the political elite suggest the continuity and stability of the Islamic Republic, at least in the short and medium terms.

The history of modern Iran has been marked by the emergence of numerous political and social movements in response to specific political events or situations. Protests have been a common tool for citizens to express their demands and opposition to the political and economic decisions of different governments, and to demand reforms and changes in the political system. Over the years, citizen demonstrations have played a crucial role in Iranian politics and have served as catalysts for significant changes in the countrys political and social system.

Already by the end of the 19th century, important socio-political movements had developed in Iran, such as the Tobacco Revolts of 1890, led by bazaaris[1] and Shiite clerics, putting the latter for the first time on the political stage thanks to the successful fatwa (religious edict) of Ayatollah Shirazi[2] calling for a boycott of tobacco consumption and trade. In 1905 a constitutional movement was initiated in the city of Tabriz, which quickly spread to other cities, deeply transforming Iranian politics, historically dominated by monarchical power. The Constitutional Revolution laid the groundwork for future changes that occurred in the 1950s and 1970s.

In the 1950s Iran experienced a great political upheaval following the Anglo-Russian occupation of World War II. Nationalists led by Mohammad Mossadeq managed to nationalise the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (later British Petroleum) in 1951 and raise Mossadeq to the position of Prime Minister. In 1953 strikes and demonstrations supported by the US and the UK weakened Mossadeq, leading to a CIA-backed coup and the end of the relative and incipient democracy that had emerged in the previous decade.

The Islamic Revolution of 1978-79 was the culmination of a complex historical process that drew heavily on the three preceding movements, and in which different political, social and religious groups participated massively. In this sense, the revolution meant the accomplishment of the main objective of the protesters, the fall of the monarchical regime. The new political system established in 1979 granted a predominant role to the Shiite clergy, with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini at the head of the power structure. However, the triumph of the revolution did not prevent the eventual emergence of popular protests.

Among the most notable demonstrations since 1979 are the student protests of 1999, during the presidency of reformist Mohammad Khatami. The banning of the reformist newspaper Salam sparked mobilisations at universities throughout the country, which lasted two weeks and left at least three dead after security forces stormed the University of Tehran campus, and up to 1,500 arrested according to different estimates. In 2009 the green movement, born in response to the controversial re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the June presidential elections, generated a wave of demonstrations in Tehran and other major cities under the slogan Where is my vote?. These protests spread over several weeks using mobile messaging services and emerging social networks to disseminate and organise demonstrations. Government repression resulted in 36 deaths, according to the authorities or 72 according to human rights organisations, thousands of arrests, and televised trials of various reformist personalities. The murdered young woman Neda Agha-Soltan became a symbol of the movement and opposition, as did Mahsa Amini in 2022. Despite the political and social tensions revealed by these protests, the Islamic Republic did not suffer a lasting crisis of legitimacy as some experts and political activists had predicted. The election of the pragmatist Hassan Rouhani in 2013 demonstrated that the Iranian population still trusted the political system and actively participated in the electoral process. However, the protests left a mark on Iranian society, increasing political awareness and social mobilisation among those disenchanted with the system.

In December 2017, during Rouhanis second presidential term, spontaneous protests arose over unpaid wages in a factory in Neishabur that quickly spread throughout the country through calls on the social network Telegram. As the protests intensified, the demands evolved into criticism of the political elite and violence, including attacks on police and Revolutionary Guard facilities. Government repression caused between 20 and 25 deaths, thousands of arrests, and the temporary suspension of the Internet and the banning of Telegram. In 2019 another wave of protests began after the announcement of a hike in petrol prices in the midst of an economic crisis exacerbated by sanctions imposed by the Administration of US President Donald Trump. These protests lasted a couple of months and were much more violent than the previous ones, leaving between 230 and 304 dead (including members of the security forces), thousands arrested and dozens of trials. The government also blocked access to the Internet for over 10 days in response to the demonstrations.

These two waves of protests highlighted the lack of social justice in Iran after 40 years of republican government, which questioned the legitimacy of the revolutionary ideology that had promised a fair distribution of the countrys resources.

The popular demands were considered legitimate by the Rouhani administration, although strongly questioned by the conservative establishment. Some Iranian academics theorised about a normalization of protests and the acceptance by the political elite of a certain degree of presence in the streets as a pressure valve for social demands, without endangering the stability and continuity of the system, and without repression being the only survival mechanism. The lack of clear leadership and concrete objectives on the part of a mixture of protesters from diverse socio-economic and geographic backgrounds prevented a strong anti-system opposition from emerging. And the response of the states repressive apparatus also prevented reformist or pragmatic sectors from unequivocally aligning with the protesters to capitalise on popular demands.

The protests initiated in September 2022 following the death in police custody of Mahsa Amini have already lasted for more than six months, becoming the longest, most widespread and violent since 1979,[3] generating a new debate about the legitimacy and stability of the Islamic Republic. There are no completely verifiable sources to determine the magnitude of the protests in terms of victims, detainees and sentenced, as well as the reaction of public opinion, both national and international. Distrust towards official figures is not mitigated by data provided in part by organisations funded by states that promote regime change in Iran, which hinders accurate assessment of recent events. While some government officials and the Revolutionary Guard have publicly mentioned figures of 200 and 300 deaths in press conferences, the numbers provided from outside Iran greatly exceed those figures. Human rights organisations such as Amnesty International and HRANA (Human Rights Activists News Agency) mention between 400 and 550 deaths. The controversial Iran International page, financed until a few months ago by Saudi Arabia, even mentioned 5,000 deaths in the most critical month of protests. It is important to note that among the officially recognised dead, there are 24 security force members, including Basijis and police officers, revealing the violence unleashed by both sides. Most of the 29 death sentences collected so far are related to these deaths, including the four already executed between December and January.

Popular support for these protests and others motivated by salary and other demands is also difficult to determine, although there are independent initiatives, such as that of Mark Pyruz, that have tried to shed light on the citizen presence in various gatherings throughout the country, based on visual empirical criteria to determine it.

Social networks have been fundamental in disseminating what happened with Amini and amplifying popular demands, as well as the evolution of protests and government repression.

However, the partisan use of those social media, with the proliferation of fictitious accounts that artificially spread hashtags in favour of or against the Iranian government, has hindered the assessment of the impact of such protests on the international perception of Iran. In October 2022 Marc Owen Jones analysed 66 million English tweets and 350 million Persian tweets with the hashtag Mahsa Amini up to that point, an unprecedented number in Twitters history, concluding that the majority of the accounts that spread the hashtag were created after the death of the young Iranian woman. Beyond the legitimacy of the cause, the real impact would have been distorted by the artificial reproduction of anti-system bot supporters. On the other hand, the amplifying effect of social media and support for protests by Iranian groups in exile have had a more significant influence on European and US public opinion, the main audiences of these groups, compared to other regions such as Latin America, Asia or Africa.

The coincidence of the protests with the Qatar FIFA World Cup, which featured the Iranian national team in the group stage with the US, England and Wales, represented an additional pressure for Iran and an opportunity to measure the impact of the protests. The three matches played by Iran, against politically sensitive opponents, generated expectations and concerns for the Qatari, Iranian and FIFA authorities. FIFA regulations prohibit any political demonstration within World Cup stadiums, so access with flags, jerseys or banners that evidenced any political positioning, either in favour or against Iran, was prevented. However, some pre-republican flags that were not confiscated in the security check could be seen in the stands during the three matches. Personal observation and recorded images during the matches showed that there were some very punctual attempts at protest, both inside and outside the stadium, but they were limited. It is also not known for certain how many Iranians travelled to Qatar during the World Cup, as many entered with passports of their second nationalities, primarily US ones. However, there are rising data in the number of weekly flights from Iran to Qatar, which went from 19 to 44 between the first and third matches.

One of the most complex issues regarding protests and demonstrations in Iran since 1979 is determining which actors can politically capitalise on anti-government protests. Reformists and pragmatists, opposition within the current system, and even neoconservatives were able to capitalise on some of the popular discontent in the 1997 (Mohammad Khatami), 2005 (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) and 2013 (Hassan Rouhani) elections. However, reformists and pragmatists have practically disappeared from the political scene since the end of Rouhanis presidency in 2021, the death of Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2017 and the public marginalisation of former President Khatami since 2009. The still-popular former President Ahmadinejad has also been barred from the electoral arena after losing the support of the Supreme Leader and the conservative political elite. Therefore, no political figure or group within Iran has been identified that can capitalise on the current social discontent and channel it towards a specific political goal that questions the supremacy of traditional conservative factions. This is partly due to the reduction of the limits of legally permitted opposition in Iran and partly because the segment of civil society that does not identify with the system has lost confidence in the political class in general, as well as hopes that change can occur within the system.

In the current situation, the only actors who have systematically attempted to capitalise on this discontent are located outside Iran, mainly the heir to the last Shah, Reza Pahlavi, residing in Los Angeles, womens rights activist Masih Alinejad, who has generated both praise and criticism due to her close ties with Donald Trump and Mike Pompeo, and Maryam Rajavi, leader of the controversial Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) group, considered a terrorist group by the EU from 2002 to 2009 and by the US from 1997 to 2012, but alternately recognised as the representative of the Iranian people in both places. It is unlikely that these three actors, especially the latter, can become the focal point of an internal opposition in Iran seeking a change of political regime. Pahlavi, however, has managed to attract a large following in the US, both among the Iranian diaspora and among politicians in Washington. By adopting a non-assertive approach regarding his lost throne, Pahlavi has sought to attract both anti-monarchist and anti-clerical Iranians. This strategy, however, has generated criticism from more radical monarchist sectors in exile. In Iran, numerous chants mentioning Pahlavis name have been heard during protests, leading many to think that there could be internal support for his return. However, it is difficult to determine whether these mentions merely represent slogans against the government or whether they actually reflect the desire of a segment of Iranian society for a monarchist restoration.

Despite the controversy surrounding opinion polls related to Iran due to the inherent political bias in their authorship and the conditions under which they are conducted, both within and outside the country, it is relevant to analyse some comparative findings of the three political personalities mentioned above. A survey conducted by Gamaan from the Netherlands in December 2022, which included responses from Iranians both inside and outside the country, positioned Pahlavi as the favourite candidate to be part of a possible Solidarity Council tasked with managing a potential transition to a new political system in Iran, with 48% support inside and 67% outside. However, only 22% of respondents inside Iran and 25% outside chose constitutional monarchy as an alternative to the current republican system. Alinejad, on the other hand, received 21% support inside and 48% outside, while Rajavi received less than 1% both inside and outside the country. The same survey revealed a significant increase in support for a political regime change in Iran, rising from 39.9% in September 2021 to 41.5% in February 2022, and reaching 60.1% in December 2022.

Pending the publication of similar surveys, such as those conducted by the University of Maryland in cooperation with the University of Tehran, the most recent survey with which to contrast these data was conducted by Gallup in August 2021, just three weeks after Ibrahim Raisi took office. This survey is not particularly useful for evaluating the impact of the current protests, but it does show that Raisi had a 72% approval rating in contrast to the meagre 32% his predecessor Rouhani had obtained in December 2020, just months before his term ended. Neither is the June 2022 survey conducted by Stasis, based in Washington, particularly helpful in shedding light on the drop in Raisis popularity in less than a year in office, giving only a 28% approval rating. However, 49% attribute the reasons for the rate of disapproval of President Raisi to external political obstacles.

The purpose of this analysis is not to delve into Iranian feminism or the demands of the Kurdish minority in Iran, but the focus adopted from the West, emphasising these two aspects, has overshadowed a more basic issue: the fact that a person, regardless of their ethnic origin or gender, has died while under arrest by the morality police (Ershad). Iranian society protests demand respect for the right to life, political and civil rights, and the end of the repressive state, beyond the reasons for Mahsa Aminis detention. Furthermore, Iranians have been protesting since 2017 for better living conditions, decent salaries and job opportunities for the hopeless youth who see exile as their only option. However, a state of permanent mobilisation is not sustainable in any political system in the world. It either leads to a revolutionary or pre-revolutionary situation, or it culminates in the pacification, spontaneous or violent, of the demonstrations. The current protests in Iran have caused hundreds of deaths and thousands of detentions so far, and although their intensity and magnitude are lower, they do not seem to have concluded. This raises various scenarios for Irans short-term future.

After the recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran signed in Beijing, media attention is now focused on Irans regional actions aimed at normalisation with Arab neighbours and even reaching an acceptable nuclear agreement to replace the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).[4] Regardless of the future of both agreements, and with the terms agreed still not clear, beyond the return to the old bilateral security agreement signed in 2001, the priorities of President Ibrahim Raisis administration and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei are focused on improving the countrys economic situation to avoid increasing social discontent. This includes stopping the fall of the rial against the US dollar, controlling inflation, creating jobs and attracting foreign investment from neighbouring states to replace the no longer expected investments from Europe and the US. Regional dtente, accompanied by improvements in economic indicators, would be a breath of fresh air for an administration that has not yet demonstrated many achievements in a year and a half in office and for a leader who needs to regain popular confidence in the Islamic Republic. The first of these aspects, related to regional dtente, is already seeing its first fruits with various announcements regarding the possible normalisation of relations between Iran, Bahrain and Egypt, on the one hand, and the rehabilitation of the Syrian regime of al-Assad by Arab countries, on the other.

In this sense, considering what has been mentioned above about the normalisation of protests in Iran and despite the numerous occasions on which the beginning of the end of the Islamic Republic has been announced since before 2009, it does not seem that the bases of the system have been seriously affected by the current protests. The resilience and adaptability of the current system have been demonstrated after almost 40 years of opposition movements, wars and sanctions imposed by the US, the EU and the UN, as well as decades of isolation and being practically surrounded by military bases of hostile states. This is also evidenced by the devastating combined effects of sanctions, falling oil prices and the collapse of exports during the global COVID-19 crisis. Therefore, although the current protests in Iran are significant, it does not seem that they have seriously affected the bases of the political system as a whole.

On the other hand, the much-debated eventual succession of the current Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, who is now aged 84, seems to worry those who expect it to have destabilising effects more than the Iranians themselves do. Dozens of possible successors have been mentioned in the past 20 years, but the truth is that there is currently no candidate mentioned by the leader as a possible favourite. However, there has been a theological and theoretical debate for years about the main characteristic of the Iranian political system, the predominance of the velayat-e faqih (rule of the Islamic jurist), in the seminary city of Qom, although the debate has not permeated the political class in Tehran.

Among the political class, however, a possible constitutional reform, returning to a republican system with a Prime Minister, and the eventual formalisation of political parties, has been frequent at least until the rise of Ibrahim Raisi to the presidency in 2021.

In any case, very few attribute a disruptive character to the eventual succession of the current political system controlled by the conservative elite with the economic, political and military support represented by the Revolutionary Guard. Since the conservatives have not shown signs of unity, despite their clear control of the political arena, a fierce internal dispute among the various factions that make it up to position their candidates for future leadership, or even a leadership council of three or five members, as provided for in the Constitution, is foreseeable. In this respect, the formal control of elective institutions such as the Assembly of Experts, and non-elective institutions such as the Guardian Council and the Discernment Council, will continue to be key to understanding how intra-factional disputes are resolved within republican dynamics.

The 2022 protests in Iran have shed light on the deep-rooted issues and dissatisfaction among the Iranian population, driven by a variety of factors, including economic hardship, political repression and the lack of social justice. Various political actors, both inside and outside the country, have attempted to capitalise on the protests, but it remains uncertain whether any of them can successfully channel the widespread discontent into meaningful political change or effectively challenge the supremacy of traditional conservative factions.

The future of the Islamic Republic depends on its ability to address pressing economic and social challenges facing the country, such as curbing inflation, creating employment opportunities and improving living standards. Fostering regional stability and improving relations with its neighbours is also crucial for Iran to attract foreign investments and alleviate the impact of international sanctions on its economy.

The current wave of protests, although significant, may not be enough to seriously undermine the foundations of the political system. While the resilience and adaptability of the Iranian political system have been tested throughout its history, these protests are a stark reminder that the Iranian government cannot indefinitely ignore the growing discontent and demands for change among its population.

[1] The commercial class and in general the workers of the bazaars (markets) in Iran, who traditionally controlled the countrys internal and external trade.

[2] In December 1891 Mirza Hassan Shirazi, Grand Ayatollah and Marja-e Taqlid, issued a fatwa prohibiting the consumption and commercialization of tobacco throughout the country, considering it an offense to the Hidden Imam, Mohammad al-Mahdi. In this way, he managed to get the Iranian population to boycott tobacco production, forcing Shah Naser al-Din Qajar to cancel the concession for its exploitation granted to the German-born British entrepreneur Julius de Reuter (Baron de Reuter).

[3] The 2009 protests continued for months, with failed attempts to organise demonstrations on specific dates of the Iranian holiday calendar, such as the anniversary of the US embassy occupation on 5 November, Students Day, and even the Revolution commemoration in February. However, the presence of protesters in the streets was prevented by the authorities, and only the virtualisation of the protests allowed the continuity of discontent and demands of a part of the Iranian population to be evidenced, unlike what has been happening since September 2022, with a sustained presence in the streets over time.

[4] The JCPOA was the bilateral agreement reached between Iran, on the one hand, and the P5+1 group (the US, the UK, France, Russia, China and Germany) and the EU, on the other, on 15 July 2015, in which a series of measures were agreed to limit Irans civilian nuclear programme and subject it to a set of restrictions over 30 years, in exchange for the lifting of all types of UN, EU and US sanctions related to the Iranian nuclear dossier.

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Quo Vadis Iran? The future of the Islamic Republic after the protests ... - Real Instituto Elcano

DA PL says province recorded highest unemployment figures in first quarter of 2023

North West collapse in governance and economic decline leads job shedding crisis in South Africa

17 May 2023

The North West recorded the countrys highest unemployment figures in the First Quarter 2023 Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) released by StatsSA yesterday afternoon. The province recorded the highest year-on-year increase of 7.9% in unemployment numbers.

Decades of ANC failed governance, corruption, fraud, policy uncertainty, cadre deployment and loadshedding has collapsed North West where basic service delivery is erratic at best. This sustained programme of destruction by the ANC has now yielded the fruits of their nefarious labours mass unemployment of 54% as per the expanded definition, the highest in South Africa.

More people in North West are unemployed than those who have a job. More than a million persons in North West are now left unemployed, desperate and destitute. Only 877 000 individuals have the dignity that comes with having a job, earning a salary, and taking care of their families.

This is a socio-economic humanitarian crisis that requires urgent intervention to restore governance, deliver basic services, attract investment that will result in economic development, growth, and job creation.

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NWest economic decline leads job shedding crisis in SA Leon ... - Politicsweb

OPINION: While there will be general interest in the topical issues raised in his book, by writing a memoir Andre de Ruyter has also thrown the spotlight on his tenure as CEO of Eskom. Did he succeed or fail? Is he a hero or a villain? asks Trevor Ngwane.

By Trevor Ngwane

AFTER 38 months at the helm of Eskom, Andre de Ruyter has exchanged his executive power suit for a typewriter. His recently published memoir, Truth to Power: My Three Years at Eskom, published by Penguin, is likely to be a best-seller, given the omnipresent electricity energy crisis in South Africa and the yearning for solutions by everyone affected.

While there will be general interest in the topical issues raised in his book, by writing a memoir De Ruyter has also thrown the spotlight on his tenure as CEO of Eskom. Did he succeed or fail? Is he a hero or a villain?

Memoirs focus on a particular experience and time in one persons life and the challenges faced. They use vivid, descriptive language to help the reader visualise the writers experiences and emotions and thus connect with the story at a deeper level. The writer must seem candid, honest and vulnerable so that the reader can understand and identify with their journey. In this regard, De Ruyter has succeeded, and many people will find the book a page-turner because of its many stories about his encounters with many figures of power and authority, including with the president of the country, and his candid opinions of them and of issues of national importance.

Memoirs are written for a purpose. As a writer, you seek to influence peoples thinking about you, the issues you raise, and about themselves. The best memoirs are those that inspire readers, clarify their thinking, and help them approach their own challenges with more vigour and conviction. With everyone concerned about load shedding, the energy crisis and the socio-economic situation in South Africa, De Ruyter undoubtedly set out to share, explain and win support for his ideas around these issues and the evaluation of his tenure as Eskom boss.

Who is De Ruyter? His book answers this question but perhaps not at a deeper ideological level. He writes about his youth, schooling, family, jobs, politics, and other aspects, which makes him the man he is. As an adult professional, he became a captain of industry, occupying executive managerial positions in corporations such as Nampak and Sasol. He refers to his Afrikaner background with pride, albeit distancing himself from apartheid ideas and practices. Indeed, he joined the Progressive Federal Party, which, no doubt, earned him condemnation as boetie to the wrong race.

Taking up the challenge of leading Eskom was part of his refusal to remain ensconced and complacent in the lap of white bourgeois privilege, fed up with the braai-side whining and moaning, where predominantly white men would drink great wine and eat massive steaks while standing safely on the sidelines and criticising the players on the field. Surely, someone, somewhere, would have to go into the trenches. To some this may suggest that he saw himself as a white knight in shining armour who went into the trenches to fight and save Eskom and the country.

Things are different today, but the question can still be asked whether De Ruyters decision to head Eskom can be regarded as noble and heroic in the manner we think of revolutionary Afrikaners such as Beyers Naude and Bram Fischer or English speakers such as Helen Joseph and Ruth First, who broke rank with the racist establishment and decided to forego their white privileges and join the struggle for liberation on the side of black people.

De Ruyter says he sacrificed a cushy job and career in the corporate sector, including taking a salary cut when he joined Eskom. He makes certain claims about his successes at Eskom but also admits to some unachieved goals. Nevertheless, in his assessment, he did enough to lay a foundation for his successors: Oom Boy: I know the scoreboard doesnt look that great right now, but the second half is yet to be played.

The reference to Springbok rugby legend Oom Boy Louw occurs in the very last sentence of the book and reflects De Ruyters glass-half-full benign self-assessment of his tenure at Eskom. With South Africa experiencing relentless load shedding and talk of Stage 16 and impending grid collapse, many will take this with a pinch of salt. Perhaps it was not the best way to end the book. Nevertheless, many will find solace, affirmation and inspiration in what De Ruyter says in other parts of his book.

Antonio Gramsci identified two types of intellectuals. Everyone is an intellectual by virtue of thinking, selecting and organising ideas, but some people were employed to study and elaborate ideas, such as university professors, which he called traditional intellectuals. The other group are organic intellectuals, which he defined as practical thinkers and doers who are specialists who conduct technical, directive and organisational functions that, under capitalism, fulfil the economic-corporative needs of the capitalist class. In other words, the manager of a factory not only directs through the power of managerial compulsion but must also lead through espousing ideas that organise production and win the buy-in of the employees. Rulers rule through force and consent.

De Ruyters biography, arguably defines him as an organic intellectual of the ruling class. He was brought into Eskom to captain the unwieldy state-owned enterprise using capitalist methods and navigating it towards the Neo-liberal solutions that the ANC government, and the capitalist class behind it, are espousing for the South African economy.

In his book, he lists his unbundling of Eskom into generation, transmission and distribution as a major achievement, which opens the door for the entry of the private sector into the state-dominated energy industry. He gloats about his bold insistence on getting residents and delinquent municipalities to pay their Eskom debts using punitive debt collection methods.

De Ruyter hates Marxism, a dead-end ideology, and rants against the myopic local content policy of the ANC government and the attempt to solve the energy crisis, but then we also want to protect local industry, we want to promote BEE, we want to give opportunities to women, the youth and people with disabilities. These elements of the ANCs vision of a developmental state are to blame for the crisis South Africa finds itself in, he says. The left-wing solutions promoted by the ANC havent made a dent in load shedding for fifteen years and have led to catastrophic unemployment and anaemic economic growth.

De Ruyter could not succeed as Eskoms CEO because his views are out of sync with the economic realities and priorities of the working class and the poor in South Africa. He is an organic intellectual of the capitalist class who was planted to push the ANC government further and further away from its vision of a developmental state and a better life for all. Putting profit before the needs of the people has always been the Achilles heel of the South African economy from the days of colonialism, apartheid until today. De Ruyters Neo-liberal ideas must be rejected.

* Trevor Ngwane is the director of the Centre for Sociological Research and Practice, University of Johannesburg.

** The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the DFA.

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A pawn in the ANCs betrayal of SAs developmental agenda - DFA

Andrew Conway

Earlier this month, the government released statistics for mortgage and landlord repossessions from October to December 2022. The Guardian chose to sum up that announcement with the headline Rental evictions in England and Wales surge by 98% in a year, implying that England and Wales are in the midst of a rocketing homelessness crisis.

Of course, these figures must be viewed in the context of long-term trends rather than selectively compared to anomalous, post-pandemic data. Readers will recall the temporary restrictions which the government imposed on evictions (and commercial forfeiture) during the pandemic. Repossessions were always going to surge once those restrictions came to an end. Interestingly, however, they still have not reached pre-pandemic levels.

So, while it is true that the final quarter of 2022 did show a near doubling of evictions compared to the same period of 2021, with 5,409 reported repossessions, the figure was still fifty percent lower than the peak in 2014/2015, when there were between 10,000 and 11,000 every quarter.

In the decade before the pandemic moratorium on evictions, there was never a quarter in which fewer than 6,000 evictions were recorded. This suggests that the situation for private renters is, in fact, improving in terms of protections offered to tenants. That only 5,409 evictions were reported is even more remarkable when set against the backdrop of a cost-of-living crisis and surging inflation. Landlords, whose mortgage repayments have in many cases soared in tandem with rising interest rates, have seemingly not been forced to sell their properties in droves; had they been, evictions would have been expected to be far higher than their present rate.

At the same time, tenants who have been faced with massive price rises in energy bills, food and other basic needs appear to have defaulted on their rent at a lower rate than many had predicted, resulting in the relatively low number of evictions reported. Without seeking to trivialise the gravity of any forced eviction, that the figures have remained below pre-pandemic levels should be seen in a far more positive light than portrayed in many sections of the press and political arenas. Similarly, the fact that the figures have not climbed above pre-Covid rates, despite the significant backlog in the Courts caused by the nine-month moratorium, offers even more hope that the private rental sector is improving for renters and landlords alike.

The same is true when analysing the MoJs mortgage repossession figures, which despite also climbing year-on-year in the last quarter of 2022 remain comfortably below pre-pandemic rates. Again, rising interest rates have had a serious impact on borrowers abilities to repay their mortgages, at the same time as they already feel the squeeze from the ever-rising cost of living. However, the relatively low number of mortgage repossessions implies that borrowers have been able to weather the storm better than expected throughout the inflationary crisis and suggests that lenders are taking a more responsible and empathetic attitude towards enforcement.

And do spare a thought for commercial landlords, not all of whom are the fat cats that certain sectors of the press would have readers believe. They too have had a rough ride over the past few years, particularly as a result of the pandemic. The enforced move to working from home saw a collapse in footfall in city centres, impacting all businesses reliant on the physical presence of consumers, and consequently affecting their landlords, who faced a wave of rental defaults as a result. Landlords were also bound by onerous government restrictions on commercial evictions (forfeiture) and, as a result, had no choice but to allow tenants to carry on renting premises that they werent paying for, despite their contractual obligations.

Of course, while some tenants did not pay rent for wholly understandable and unavoidable reasons, forced into default through no fault of their own in the wake of the economic collapse sweeping the country, others such as large retailers with significant online presences and whose turnovers were largely unaffected by the pandemic, took advantage of the restrictions and simply chose not to pay their rent, even though they could afford to.

While many businesses were able to take advantage of emergency measures introduced by the government, including the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (furlough) and Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme, landlords were left largely to fend for themselves.

Whatever your viewpoint, its clear that landlords and tenants across the property spectrum have both suffered as a consequence of the pandemic and this has impacted families and businesses alike. While it may be fashionable in certain quarters to apply a reductive landlords bad, tenants good stance towards any property-related story, often it pays to delve beneath the headlines, and take a more nuanced view of the situation. Landlords and tenants are both deserving of protection from the current socio-economic situation and focusing on one at the expense of the other does no good for either in the long run.

Andrew Conway is senior director at Lawrence Stephens

Section 21 evictions hit record high as BTL landlords start to panic

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Alarmist headlines about evictions should be ignored in favour of ... - Property Industry Eye

Opinion: culture, politics and survival motivate Ukrainian women to take action, reminiscent of those who took part in Euromaidan protests a decade ago

By Olesia Zhytkova and Robert Gillanders, DCU

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine regained its independence. The process of reviving Ukrainian socio-political thought, economic activity and culture had begun. As a result of the ineffective leadership of the Soviet Union, independent Ukraine inherited a number of socio-economic and political problems. The Russian leaderships desire to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence also played a role, leading to constant interference and destabilisation of Ukraines internal politics.

The last decade of Ukrainian history has been defined by a major social movement Euromaidan and the Revolution of Dignity that loudly proclaimed the unwillingness of Ukrainian society to be in Russias sphere of influence.

Although the Russian Federation formally recognised the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine, Russias policy remained colonial in its content and intention. The Russian state leadership, with all social and economic structures under their control, and the support of the majority of the population, aimed to retain political, cultural and economic influence in Ukraine. Ultimately, the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych became the President of Ukraine in 2010.

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From BBC News, what happened in Kyiv's Maidan square?

The policies of Yanukovych led to tension within Ukraine. For many, the last straw was the refusal to sign the Association Agreement with the European Union in 2013. This led to an uprising of people against the ruling regime Euromaidan and the Revolution of Dignity in 2013-2014. The protesters focus was the Maidan, the main square in Kyiv city. Citizens grievances arose from the governments disrespect for human rights, disproportionate police violence against protesters, rampant corruption, and scarce job opportunities.

At first, the protests were peaceful, but later the authorities began to use force against the participants, and protesters started to fight back. During the culminating phase, the authorities began to shoot protesters. As a result, more than a hundred people died, including several women. Researchers claim that women played a pivotal role in the anti-government protests held in Ukraine from November 2013 to February 2014. According to some estimates, women constituted nearly half of the participants in these protests. At the same time, as the protests escalated, the number of women in the permanent camp on Maidan decreased.

Women coordinated the provision of medical supplies, compiled lists of missing persons, offered legal assistance for detained protesters, provided psychological assistance, safe transportation, and media relations, organised public lectures and documentary screenings inside the encampment, artistic and educational events, patrolled the barricades, distributed food, and provided first aid as bullets whistled past.

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From RT News, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky says the country needs more time before launching its counter offensive

For women, there were a host of reasons for protesting, including civic duty, solidarity with protesters, motherhood, and professional service. However, the most frequently cited motivation for womens activism was profound dissatisfaction with the incumbent government. Thanks to the efforts and bravery of its men and women, Ukrainian society managed to defeat the pro-Russian regime in 2014. However, as we all know, Ukraines fight for freedom continues.

A new wave of Ukrainian activism is evident across Europe today. While a significant number of men are on the battlefield or helping the army in other ways inside the country, women who are outside Ukraine for security reasons are active partners in the protection of the country and its culture. Across Europe, Ukrainian women organise solidarity and protest actions to highlight consequences of Russias military aggression against Ukraine and advocate for greater support for the cause of Ukraine, and of freedom.As part of our Irish Research Council funded project, Corruption, Gender, and Sustainable Development, we have surveyed Ukrainians across Europe to understand what form their activism takes and the motivations for their efforts.

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From RT Radio 1's Today with Claire Byrne, Russia targets Kyiv with 'exceptional' missile strike

Over 50% of our respondents report that they have been involved in social or political activism and 19% have experience with cultural activism. Our survey shows that there are wide variety of motivating factors for women, many of which are reminiscent of those who took part in Euromaidan. For example, one woman expressed a fear "that hucksters and corrupt officials will take my country away from me if I do nothing." However, there was also the woman who was motivated by "the desire to help the general public learn more about the history and culture of Ukraine."

For some women, helping to fight the aggressor became a fight for the fate of their families: "My husband serves in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I want to be useful to his unit." Culture, politics, and survival motivate the women of Ukraine to take action. Ukraines fight for freedom has been a long one and the fight will not end when the Russia has been defeated. The legacy of Russias long interference and aggression runs deep. The men and women of Ukraine desire and deserve a better future for themselves and their children and history shows that they are willing to fight for it and win.

Dr Olesia Zhytkova is a Postdoctoral Researcher at Dublin City University's Business School. She is a member of the "Corruption, Gender, and Sustainable development" project, funded by the Irish Research Council. Dr Rob Gillanders is a Lecturer in Economics at Dublin City University's Business School. He is a former Irish Research Council awardee.

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RT

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The role of women's activism in the fight for Ukraine's freedom - RTE.ie

ECOLOGICAL governance effectively contributes to the principle of ecosystem stewardship. This promotes social ecological governance, which enhances collaborations among stakeholders, facilitates social learning and stewardship at various levels.

As natural ecosystems which are vital lungs and arteries of the environment face increasingly rapid degeneration and depletion, this calls for more discussion around this critical matter.

Ecosystem governance is a manifestation of the larger needs for what is termed ecological governance. The term governance is central to this discussion as it applies to the process of decision-making and in this regard, in relation to ecosystem-based management processes.

Key elements of ecological governance should always be taken into account for sustainable best practices and outcomes. Emphasis should be placed on the human activities which are affecting the physical environment. In the interest of ecological governance framework, it is essential to integrate both systems to maintain ecosystem processes and functions, in order to build the desired resilience.

Human needs should also consistently maintain ecosystem integrity, and this involves human behaviours, attitudes, ethical codes of conduct and socio-cultural issues that contribute a lot towards building a whole human being.

Ecosystem management should be combined with ecosystem-based management, which emphasises the need to adapt to socio-economic and political processes to fit within the framework.

Industrial ecology also has a fundamental role to play in enabling economic production to mirror the natural ecosystems.

In this regard, such pillars as recycling and re-use are at the core, just as the waste of the natural ecosystems.

Ecological governance should be strongly aligned towards ecological mordernisation which seeks to shift the emphasis of the micro-economy to services and knowledge provision.

Governance takes into account formal government institutions, non-governmental actors with businesses and civil society informally establishing the rules of behaviour while contributing to decisions that shape collective livelihoods.

This situates the ecological environment and ecosystem services at the heart of ecological governance. Functional ecosystem services are referred to as the building blocks of natural life.

They are also the hidden underpinning of the human economy. It is vital in this regard, to sustainably manage ecosystem pillars like land, water, forests and all creatures in their biological and cultural diversities in order to avoid an ecological deficit.

Despite ongoing undesirable human activities which are unhealthy for the environment, it is the duty of human beings as ecosystem stewards, to maintain the quality of the environment.

This is important in ensuring the planet is passed on to other generations in no worse condition than it was received.

This has proved to be an extremely difficult task because the perceived stewards have turned against the environment to manipulate and exploit it for its intrinsic value for selfish and economic gains.

The natural ecosystems provide ecological balance to the natural capital whereby even the smallest creature has a role to play. Therefore, it is the role of human beings as environmental stewards to complement the natural process and efforts generated by ecological diversity.

This strengthens ecological integrity necessary for safeguarding ecosystem features, to provide services and to promote resilience.

This allows ecosystems to maintain functions and structures under constant environmental conditions.

In the spirit of sustainable living, communities have the capacity to modify their environment by changing the rules that shape human behaviours, in the absence of sustainable stewardship and against the background of rapid change.

It is also a matter of concern that the world is in its current state as a result of uncontrolled human behaviours.

Ecological governance is designed to give more prominence to ecological imperatives as a way of overcoming ecological and social dilemmas. If not governed properly, socio-ecological dilemmas can degenerate into ecological collapse.

That is why ecological governance is key as it provides ecological balance of nature including constant checks and balances, simply because it is only in God that we trust while in humans we need to check always.

What needs to be avoided through ecological governance is the global destruction of ecosystems due to unsustainable levels of resource exploitation and disturbances.

The rule of law also needs to be foregrounded as it is essential in enabling societies to respond to the deterioration in the conditions of ecosystems including associated dangers and risks.

While there are no superior ecosystems, water as an infrastructure and natural ecosystem is a vital component in the provision of ecosystemic services.

Water provides the bulk of ecosystem services that sustain lives and essential human livelihoods such as domestic chores, irrigation, habitat for wildlife, construction, mining, recreation, natural and industrial cooling, among others.

Ecological governance should carefully consider ecosystem processes, situate them at the heart of planning, at all levels of decision-making, with inclusivity.

In the framework of ecosystem-based management systems, adaptation is fundamental for economic, political and social processes to build strong ecosystems instead of depleting them.

In this view, all pillars critical in human survival and governance should have lots of influence in managing the ecosystems, while ecological governance leads to ecosystem integrity which is instrumental in setting management goals and decisions.

Local people and institutions should not be left out because they are best placed to monitor the environment and respond with solutions targeted on human, economic and environmental transformation.

Ecological governance should also consider, complex interaction of human activities and natural processes in planning and decision-making.

In the interest of ecological governance, managing ecosystems should not leave room for manipulation of ecosystems and unsustainable human activities.

Ecological governance does not only contribute to the principle of ecosystem stewardship, but also to ecological integrity.

These are instrumental in mapping appropriate ecological actions, leading to sustainable resilience building.

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Role of ecological governance in resilience building - Newsday Zimbabwe

Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) governorship candidate in Kogi State, Senator Dino Melaye, yesterday said besides harnessing the abundant natural and human resources in the state, he will explore new methods for creating growth and wealth.

He stated this during the inauguration of a Policy Document Development Committee to chart a way forward for his administration if elected in November.

Melaye, who also released a policy document to guide his activities, lamented that Kogi was supposed to be a confluence of opportunities.

Speaking at the inauguration, Melaye, who said he will be governor of the people if elected, added that they intended to follow the path of nations and regions in the world who have achieved monumental socio-economic transformation through visioning and thoughtful experimentation.

He pointed out that the caliber of personalities in the committee is a testimony to the endowment of Kogi with a high number of people with demonstrable intellect, competence and expertise in all walks of life.

Melaye said: As one of the most endowed States in Nigeria in terms of natural and human resources, Kogi was designed by God to be a confluence of opportunities. Regrettably, it has remained a confluence of unrealised potentials, lacklustre socio-economic performance and massive frustration.

In order to reverse this unacceptable trend and to actualise our vision, we intend to follow the path of nations and regions in the world who have achieved monumental socio-economic transformation through visioning, thoughtful experimentation, adequate planning and unwavering determination to bring dreams into reality.

The world economy has changed. There was a time when agriculture and manufacturing were the main drivers of growth and wealth creation but today close to 2/3rd of the global economy is a knowledge economy.

We can, therefore, attain our vision by effectively harnessing our abundant natural and human resources while also drawing heavily on the experience of other climes in the application of the new methods for creating growth and wealth in the 21st century.

Melaye listed the challenges facing the state to include insecurity, the dismal state of our social services, the near total collapse of our Local Governments, haphazard and whimsical payment of salaries pensions and gratuities, the frustration of our youth due to massive unemployment and grinding rural poverty pose to our people.

They all require urgent action which can bring noticeable improvement to the overall well-being of our people within the first six months of our administration.

In his acceptance speech, the Chairman of the committee, Prof Sam Amdi, said that the committee will come up with a document that will enhance growth and development for the state.

He said that their choice was an opportunity to serve, adding that the members of the committee are men and women, who can be relied upon to deliver.

He said: We would be able to rally round and come up with a document that will enhance growth and development for the state. The essence of the committee is to provide the objectives and what you expect to achieve in government.

You have given us an assignment, we want to assure the people of Kogi that we will provide a paradigm that develop Kogi State. We will conclude our assignment within the two weeks given.

Other members of the committee were Professor Olugbemiro Jegede, Victor Adoji, Natasha Akpoti, Musa Ahmadu, Ambassador Olusiji Aina, Prof Rotimi Ajayi, Dr Safiya Ajayi, Dr Dan Oguns and Barrister Justina Abaneda among others.

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I'll Explore New Wealth Creation Methods In Kogi Melaye - Leadership News

Monday 22 May is the International Day for Biological Diversity.

As the global community is called to re-examine our relationship to the natural world, one thing is certain: despite all our technological advances we are completely dependent on healthy and vibrant ecosystems for our water, food, medicines, clothes, fuel, shelter and energy, just to name a few, according to the United Nations information page on the event.

This involves respecting, protecting and repairing our biological wealth.

On Monday, 22 May, at 2pm, the University of the Western Cape (UWC) and Peoples Health Movement are hosting the Annual David Sanders Lecture in Public Health and Social Justice.

The event will also serve as the launch of the book, The Struggle for Health: 2nd Edition, which Prof David Sanders was working on at the time of his death.

We are continuously reminded of Davids passion, intellect and social justice action, and all these attributes were captured in his acclaimed book, The Struggle for Health: Medicine and the Politics of Underdevelopment. At the time of Davids passing, he was working on an updated edition of this influential book, according to the event description.

Since his untimely passing, and with the direction of Sue Fawcus, co-authorship of Wim de Ceukelaire and Barbara Hutton together with colleagues from the Peoples Health Movement, and the considerable support provided by the UWC, [School of Public Health], the book was completed.

Prof Fran Baum of the Stretton Institute, University of Adelaide, will deliver the keynote address.

For in-person attendance, RSVP here.

The event will be live streamed here.

On Monday at 4pm, the Wits Institute for Social and Economic Research (Wiser) is hosting a seminar on the paper, Centre-led Fiscal Reform and the Rise of Regional Power Blocs in a Limpopo Municipality, 1980-2020s, by Joel Pearson.

This article considers the changing role of a local municipality in the political economy of the Waterberg region of Limpopo. It considers the effects that centre-led processes of municipal fiscal reform over the course of the 1980s and 1990s have had on local and regional politics, and it suggests that this offers one dimension through which to understand why Limpopo has long proved a troublesome region for successive national South African governments, across the apartheid and post-apartheid decades, according to the papers abstract.

Read the paper here.

Register here.

On Tuesday, 23 May, at 5.30pm, Wiser and Jonathan Ball Publishers are holding a book discussion on Winnie & Nelson: Portrait of a Marriage, by Jonny Steinberg.

Steinberg, author and part-time professor at Yale University and Wiser, will be in conversation with Sizwe Mpofu-Walsh, lecturer in the department of international relations at Wits University, in the Wiser seminar room.

One of the most celebrated political leaders of our time, Nelson Mandela has been written about by many biographers and historians. But in one crucial area, his life remains largely untold: his marriage to Winnie Madikizela-Mandela, according to the event description.

Jonny Steinberg tells the tale of this unique marriage its longings, its obsessions, its deceits in a page-turning political biography. Winnie and Nelson is a modern epic in which trauma doesnt affect just the couple at its centre, but an entire nation.

RSVP to [emailprotected].

On Tuesday at 6.30pm, the Zero Dropout Campaign is hosting a Twitter space, Pirls: Context Counts, to discuss the newly released Pirls 2021 data.

Speakers include Prof Vuyokazi Nomlomo, deputy vice chancellor for teaching and learning at the University of Zululand; Prof Cally Ardington of the South African Labour and Development Research Unit; Nangamso Mtsatse, CEO of Funda Wande; and Pumza Ndamase, project lead for Reading for Meaning.

Pirls has found that 81% of Grade 4 learners in South Africa cannot read for meaning in any language. We know that learners without basic foundational skills struggle to maintain their grip on opportunity, often dropping out before completing matric, according to the event description.

Set a reminder here.

On Wednesday, 24 May, at 3pm, the Research and Advocacy Unit (RAU) is hosting the launch of a report titled A Short History of Organised Violence and Torture in Zimbabwe (1972 to 2020).

Speakers include Madrine Chiku, director of the RAU; Musa Kika, director of the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum; Tony Reeler, senior researcher at RAU; and Roselyn Hanzi, director of Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights.

Join the Zoom event here. The meeting ID is 912 1905 9788 and the passcode is 201077.

On Wednesday at 5pm, law firm ENSafrica will be hosting a panel discussion, Unlocking State Incapacity, exploring how state capacity can be improved through public-private partnerships and collaboration.

RSVP here.

Thursday 25 May is Africa Day.

Africa Day is the commemoration of the founding of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), the precursor to the African Union (AU), on 25 May 1963.

Africa Day is intended to celebrate and acknowledge the successes of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU now the AU) from its creation on May 25, 1963, in the fight against colonialism and apartheid, as well as the progress that Africa has made, while reflecting upon the common challenges that the continent faces in a global environment, according to the event description.

On Thursday, 25 May, at 9.30am, the Healthy Living Alliance (Heala) will be hosting a seminar on the Labelling and Marketing of Food.

The seminar comes in the wake of the release of draft regulations relating to the Labelling and Marketing of Foodstuffs Act by the Department of Health.

Heala is galvanising society to understand the regulation in order to submit substantive comments and representations on the proposed regulations, according to the event description.

The event will take place at the Holiday Inn Johannesburg in Sunny Side Park. RSVP to Eunice Montso on [emailprotected].

On Thursday at 10.30am, 350Africa.org is launching new renewable energy research on policies, opportunities and barriers to renewable energy in West Africa.

The research focuses on the status of renewable energy policies in relation to climate change policies and strategies in Benin, Ghana, Nigeria and Togo, according to the event description.

Speakers will include 350Africa.org spokespeople and partners from West Africa. A copy of the research will be made available after the conference.

Register here.

On Thursday at 5.30pm, the Desmond and Leah Tutu Legacy Foundation are commemorating Africa Day with an event exploring the power of storytelling and the essence of home and belonging.

This will involve the screening of two documentaries, Lend Me Your Voice by Claudine Shenge Ndimbira and Coach by Damian Samuels.

Immerse yourself in the powerful narratives that these films bring to life, as they explore the themes of identity, resilience, and the quest for a sense of home. Through the lens of talented filmmakers, we will witness stories that resonate deeply with the African experience and the universal longing for connection, according to the event description.

RSVP to [emailprotected] by 22 May.

On Friday, 26 May, at 9am, Daily Maverick is hosting The Gathering: Earth Edition at the Cape Town International Convention Centre.

The event will bring together some of the worlds leading scientists, economists, business leaders, policymakers and activists to discuss real solutions to the burgeoning energy, environmental and economic crisis facing South Africa.

Solutions-focused discussions will look at the effect of the climate crisis and ecosystem collapse across business, security, civil society, food production and much more, according to the event description.

Book tickets for in-person attendance here.

For virtual attendance, register here.

On Friday at 1pm, the South African Depression and Anxiety Group (Sadag) is hosting a talk on Bipolar Awareness Day: Overcoming the Stigma of Bipolar Disorder.

Speakers include Marianna Stais, Ruleen de Witt and Vuyo Gayiya, support group leaders who will share their lived experiences of Bipolar Disorder.

Bipolar Awareness Day is observed annually to raise awareness of Bipolar Disorder, its effects, and the importance of early diagnosis and treatment, according to the event description.

This day is an opportunity to recognise and honour those living with the disorder and educate the general public about the condition.

On Saturday, 27 May, at 8am, the Gift of the Givers conference, Preparedness for Humanitarian Disasters, will kick off at the Cape Town International Convention Centre. The event will run until Sunday, 28 May.

Gift of the Givers CEO Dr Imtiaz Sooliman and his team will be using real missions to teach the logistical, medical and ethical principles of working in disaster settings.

Dont miss out on this exceptional opportunity to enhance your expertise in disaster response. Our comprehensive programme delves into critical aspects of disaster intervention, equipping participants with invaluable knowledge and skills, according to the event description.

Discover a wide range of topics, including the pivotal roles and responsibilities of search and rescue teams, K9 units, medical teams, counsellors and dietitians in the face of humanitarian crises.

Register here.

On Saturday at 9am, the official launch of the Defend our

Democracy Movement will take place at Gibs Business School in Illovo, Johannesburg.

The launch will see a review of Defend Our Democracys work thus far, as well as deliberation on its programme of action in relation to the central issues facing democracy today. A new leadership core that will drive the work of the movement forward will be determined.

According to the event description: Defend Our Democracy was tasked at its Conference for Democratic Renewal and Change, attended by over 100 organisations in July 2022, to establish a civil society movement aimed at strengthening, renewing, protecting and enhancing our constitutional democracy. The conference declaration read:

We hereby resolve that the Defend our Democracy Campaign be transformed as soon as practicable into a flexible popular movement based on institutional and organisational affiliation, including individual association, where deemed necessary. It shall not contest elections and will act in defence of our constitutional democracy and mobilise at every level in this regard. This movement shall be charged with the responsibility of implementing the programme of action adopted at this Conference, and the Conference Secretariat shall report on its activities to its members within the next twelve months.

Members of the media who want to attend the launch in person should RSVP here.

The event will be live streamed here.

Sunday 28 May is World Hunger Day.

World Hunger Day is an opportunity for people around the world to play their part in ending world hunger.

Despite producing enough food to feed everyone, more than 800 million people still go hungry every day Hunger is an insidious cycle. Its often silent, invisible and relentless; passed from generation to generation. Unlike famines, which attract emergency aid, millions of people globally are forced to accept a life of hunger, unable to make their dreams a reality, according to the World Hunger Day website.

This World Hunger Day, unite with millions of people and thousands of organisations around the world to amplify the voices of those facing hunger and help make the [United Nations] Sustainable Goal of Zero Hunger a reality.

Online Course on Community-Based Paralegals

The Socio-Economic Rights Project of the Dullah Omar Institute for Constitutional Law, Governance and Human Rights, the University of the Western Cape and partners will be hosting an online course on community-based paralegals from 5 to 30 June 2023.

The course will take place online with weekly readings and assessments over a period of one month. Applications are invited from persons working with or interested in the role of Community-Based Paralegals, according to the course description.

This includes members of civil society organisations, non-government organisations, academia, judicial officers, prosecutors, investigators and paralegals.

Registration closes on 31 May. Register here. DM/MC

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Gift of the Givers conference and Africa Day - Daily Maverick

This week the federal governmentjoined an international agreementto recycle or reuse 100 per centof plastic waste by 2040, putting an end to plastic pollution. But major obstacles stand in the way.

The most recent is the collapse of Australia's largestsoft plastic recycling program, REDcycle. The program was suspended after it was revealed soft plastic items collected at Woolworths and Coleshad been stockpiledfor months in warehouses and not recycled.

The abrupt halt to the soft plastics recycling scheme has left many consumers deeply disappointed, and the sense of betrayal is understandable. Recycling, with its familiar "chasing arrows" symbol, has been portrayed bythe plastics industryas the answer to the single-use plastics problem for years.

But recycling is not a silver bullet. Most single-use plastics produced worldwide since the 1970shave ended upin landfills and the natural environment. Plastics can also be foundin the food we eat, and at thebottom of the deepest oceans.

The recent collapse of the soft plastics recycling scheme is further proof that plastic recycling is a broken system. Australia cannot achieve its new target if the focus is on the collection, recycling and disposal alone. Systemic change is urgently needed.

Australia has joined theHigh Ambition Coalition to End Plastic Pollution, a group of more than 30 countries co-led by Norway and Rwanda, and also including the United Kingdom, Canada and France.

It aims to deliver a global treaty banning plastic pollution by setting global rules and obligations for the full life cycle of plastic. This includes setting standards to reduce plastic production, consumption and waste. It would also enable a circular economy, where plastic is reduced, reused or recycled.

The idea behind recycling is simple. By reprocessing items into new products, we can conserve natural resources and reduce pollution.

Unfortunately, the recycling process is much more complex and entwined in the economic system. Recycling is a commodities market. Who buys what is usually determined by the quality of the plastic.

Sitting in the middle of the chasing arrow symbol is a number. If it's a one or a two, it's high value and will most likely be sold on the commodities market and recycled. Numbers three to seven indicate mixed plastics, such as soft plastics, which are considered low value.

Sadly, it often costs more to recycle most plastics than to just throw them away. Up until 2018,low value plastics were exported to China. The reliance on the global waste trade for decades precluded many countries, including Australia, from developing advanced domestic recycling infrastructure.

One of the biggest problems with plastics recycling is the massive diversity of plastics that end up in the waste stream foils, foams, sachets, numerous varieties of flexible plastic, and different additives that further alter plastic properties.

Most plastics can only be recycled in pure and consistent form, and only a limited number of times. What's more, municipal plastic waste streams are very difficult to sort.

Achieving high levels of recycling in the current system requires the mixed plastic waste stream to be sorted into hundreds of different parts. This is unrealistic and particularly challenging for remote, low-income communities, which are typically far away from a recycling facility.

For example, throughout the developing world,single-use "sachet" sizeproducts are often directed towards low socio-economic communities and low-income families, who may buy most of their food in small daily portions.

Waste from small single-use packagingis notoriously difficult to recycleand is particularly prevalentin remote and rural communitieswhich have less sophisticated waste management infrastructure.

Furthermore,high transportation costsassociated with shipping plastic waste to a reprocessing facility make recycling a difficult issue for remote communities everywhere, includingOutback Australia.

Worldwide production and consumption of plastic per capita continues to increase, and isexpected to triple by 2060. For many consumer-packaged goods companies,recycling remains the dominant narrativein addressing the issue.

For example, astudythis year examined how companies in the food and beverage sector address plastic packaging as part of their wider, pro-active, sustainability agenda. It found the sector's transition to sustainable packaging is "slow and inconsistent", and in their corporate sustainability reports most companies focus on recyclable content and post-consumer initiatives rather than solutions at the source.

Although producer responsibility is growing, most companies in the fast-moving consumer goods sectorare doing very littleto reduce single-use plastic packaging. Special consideration should be given to products sold in regions lacking waste management infrastructure, such as in emerging economies.

The Australian government's new goal to end plastic pollution by 2040 is encouraging to see. But putting the onus on recycling, consumer behaviour, and post-consumer "quick fix" solutions will only perpetuate the problem.

In the context of the global plastic crisis, focusing on recycled content is like putting a band aid on a bullet wound. We need better and more innovative solutions to turn off the plastic tap. This includes stronger legislation to address plastic waste and promote sustainable packaging.

One such approach is to establish "extended producer responsibility" (EPR). This involves laws and regulations requiring plastics producers and manufacturers to pay for the recycling and disposal of their products.

For example, in 2021,Maine became the first US stateto adopt an EPR law for plastic packaging. Maine's EPR policy shifts recycling costs from taxpayers and local government to packaging producers and manufacturers. Companies that want to sell products in plastic packaging must pay a fee based on their packaging choices and provide easily recyclable product options.

Currently, the burden of managing plastic disposal typically lies with local councils and municipalities. As a result, many municipalities worldwide are championingEPR schemes.

It's the responsibility of everyone in the value chain to limit the use of single-use plastic and provide sustainable packaging alternatives for consumers. We need better product design and prevention through legislation.

The exciting thing is that businesses transitioning towards a more sustainable way of producing, distributing, and re-using goods aremore likelyto improve their competitive position.

Anya Phelan is a lecturer at theUniversity of Queensland. This piece first appeared on The Conversation.

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REDcycle's collapse is more proof that plastic recycling is a broken ...

INTRODUCTION

In 1931, Edgar Sydenstricker outlined inequalities by socio-economic class in the 1918 Spanish influenza epidemic in America, reporting a signicantly higher incidence among the working classes.1 This challenged the widely held popular and scientific consensus of the time which held that the u hit the rich and the poor alike.2 In the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been similar claims made by politicians and the media - that we are all in it together and that the COVID-19 virus does not discriminate.3 This essay aims to dispel this myth of COVID-19 as a socially neutral disease, by discussing how, just as 100years ago, there are inequalities in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality ratesreflecting existing unequal experiences of chronic diseases and the social determinants of health. The essay is structured in three main parts. Part 1 examines historical and contemporary evidence of inequalities in pandemicsdrawing on international research into the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918, the H1N1 outbreak of 2009 and the emerging international estimates of socio-economic, ethnic and geographical inequalities in COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. Part 2 examines how these inequalities in COVID-19 are related to existing inequalities in chronic diseases and the social determinants of health, arguing that we are experiencing a syndemic pandemic. In Part 3, we explore the potential consequences for health inequalities of the lockdown measures implemented internationally as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the likely unequal impacts of the economic crisis. The essay concludes by reflecting on the longer-term public health policy responses needed to ensure that the COVID-19 pandemic does not increase health inequalities for future generations.

More recent studies have confirmed Sydenstrickers early findings: there were significant inequalities in the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic. The international literature demonstrates that there were inequalities in prevalence and mortality rates: between high-income and low-income countries, more and less affluent neighbourhoods, higher and lower socio-economic groups, and urban and rural areas. For example, India had a mortality rate 40 times higher than Denmark and the mortality rate was 20 times higher in some South American countries than in Europe.4 In Norway, mortality rates were highest among the working-class districts of Oslo5; in the USA, they were highest among the unemployed and the urban poor in Chicago,6 and across Sweden, there were inequalities in mortality between the highest and lowest occupational classesparticularly among men.7 In contrast, countries with smaller pre-existing social and economic inequalities, such as New Zealand, did not experience any socio-economic inequalities in mortality.8 9 An urbanrural effect was also observed in the 1918 inuenza pandemic whereby, for example, in England and Wales, the mortality was 30%40% higher in urban areas.10 There is also some evidence from the USA that the pandemic had long-term impacts on inequalities in child health and development.11

Several studies have also demonstrated inequalities in the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. For example, globally, Mexico experienced a higher mortality rate than that in higher-income countries.12 In terms of socio-economic inequalities, themortality rate from H1N1 in the most deprived neighbourhoods of England was three times higher than in the least deprived.13 It was also higher in urban compared to rural areas.13 Similarly, a Canadian study in Ontario found that hospitalisation rates for H1N1 were associated with lower educational attainment and living in a high deprivation neighbourhood.14 Another study found positive associations between people with financial issues (eg, financial barriers to healthcare access) and influenza-like illnesses during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the USA.15 Various studies on cyclical winter influenza in North America have also found associations between mortality, morbidity and symptom severity and socio-economic status among adults and children.16 17

Just as in 1918 and 2009, evidence of social inequalities is already emerging in relation to COVID-19 from Spain, the USA and the UK. Intermediate data published by the Catalonian government in Spain suggest that the rate of COVID-19 infection is six or seven times higher in the most deprived areas of the region compared to the least deprived.18 Similarly, in preliminary USA analysis, Chen and Krieger (2020) found area-level socio-spatial gradients in confirmed cases in Illinois and positive test results in New York City, with dramatically increased risk of death observed among residents of the most disadvantaged counties.19 With regard to ethnic inequalities in COVID-19, data from England and Wales have found that people who are black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) accounted for 34.5% of 4873 critically ill COVID-19 patients (in the period ending April 16, 2020) and much higher than the 11.5% seen for viral pneumonia between 2017 and 2019.20 Only 14% of the population of England and Wales are from BAME backgrounds. Even more stark is the data on racial inequalities in COVID-19 infections and deaths that are being released by various states and municipalities in the USA. For example, in Chicago (in the period ending April 17, 2020), 59.2% of COVID-19 deaths were among black residents and the COVID-19 mortality rate for black Chicagoans was 34.8 per 100000 population compared to 8.2 per 100000 population among white residents.21 There will likely be an interaction of race and socio-economic inequalities, demonstrating the intersectionality of multiple aspects of disadvantage coalescing to further compound illness and increase the risk of mortality.22

The COVID-19 pandemic is occurring against a backdrop of social and economic inequalities in existing non-communicable diseases (NCDs) as well as inequalities in the social determinants of health. Inequalities in COVID-19 infection and mortality rates are therefore arising as a result of a syndemic of COVID-19, inequalities in chronic diseases and the social determinants of health. The prevalence and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic is magnified because of the pre-existing epidemics of chronic diseasewhich are themselves socially patterned and associated with the social determinants of health. The concept of a syndemic was originally developed by Merrill Singer to help understand the relationships between HIV/AIDS, substance use and violence in the USA in the 1990s.23 A syndemic exists when risk factors or comorbidities are intertwined, interactive and cumulativeadversely exacerbating the disease burden and additively increasing its negative effects: A syndemic is a set of closely intertwined and mutual enhancing health problems that significantly affect the overall health status of a population within the context of a perpetuating configuration of noxious social conditions [24 p13]. We argue that for the most disadvantaged communities, COVID-19 is experienced as a syndemica co-occurring, synergistic pandemic that interacts with and exacerbates their existing NCDs and social conditions (figure 1).

The syndemic of COVID-19, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the social determinants of health (adapted from Singer23 and Dahlgren and Whitehead25).

Minority ethnic groups, people living in areas of higher socio-economic deprivation, those in poverty and other marginalised groups (such as homeless people, prisoners and street-based sex workers) generally have a greater number of coexisting NCDs, which are more severe and experienced at at a younger age. For example, people living in more socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods and minority ethnic groups have higher rates of almost all of the known underlying clinical risk factors that increase the severity and mortality of COVID-19, including hypertension, diabetes, asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), heart disease, liver disease, renal disease, cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity and smoking.2629 Likewise, minority ethnic groups in Europe, the USA and other high-income countries experience higher rates of the key COVID-19 risk factors, including coronary heart disease and diabetes.28 Similarly, the Gypsy/Roma communityone of the most marginalised minority groups in Europehas a smoking rate that is two to three times the European average and increased rates of respiratory diseases (such as COPD) and other COVID-19 risk factors.29

These inequalities in chronic conditions arise as a result of inequalities in exposure to the social determinants of health: the conditions in which people live, work, grow and age including working conditions, unemployment, access to essential goods and services (eg, water, sanitation and food), housing and access to healthcare.25 30 By way of example, there are considerable occupational inequalities in exposure to adverse working conditions (eg, ergonomic hazards, repetitive work, long hours, shift work, low wages, job insecurity)they are concentrated in lower-skill jobs. These working conditions are associated with increased risks of respiratory diseases, certain cancers, musculoskeletal disease, hypertension, stress and anxiety.31 In addition to these long-term exposures, inequalities in working conditions may well be impacting the unequal distribution of the COVID-19 disease burden. For example, lower-paid workers (where BAME groups are disproportionately represented)particularly in the service sector (eg, food, cleaning or delivery services)are much more likely to be designated as key workers and thereby are still required to go to work and rely on public transport for doing so. All these increase their exposure to the virus.

Similarly, access to healthcare is lower in disadvantaged and marginalised communitieseven in universal healthcare systems.32 In England, the number of patients per general practitioner is 15% higher in the most deprived areas than that in the least deprived areas.33 Medical care is even more unequally distributed in countries such as the USA where around 33 million Americansfrom the most disadvantaged and marginalised groupshave insufficient or no healthcare insurance.27 This reduced access to healthcarebefore and during the outbreakcontributes to inequalities in chronic disease and is also likely to lead to worse outcomes from COVID-19 in more disadvantaged areas and marginalised communities. People with existing chronic conditions (eg, cancer or cardiovascular disease (CVD)) are less likely to receive treatment and diagnosis as health services are overwhelmed by dealing with the pandemic.

Housing is also an important factor in driving health inequalities.34 For example, exposure to poor quality housing is associated with certain health outcomes, for example, damp housing can lead to respiratory diseases such as asthma while overcrowding can result in higher infection rates and increased risk of injury from household accidents.34 Housing also impacts health inequalities materially through costs (eg, as a result of high rents) and psychosocially through insecurity (eg, short-term leases).34 Lower socio-economic groups have a higher exposure to poor quality or unaffordable, insecure housing and therefore have a higher rate of negative health consequences.35 These inequalities in housing conditions may also be contributing to inequalities in COVID-19. For example, deprived neighbourhoods are more likely to contain houses of multiple occupation and smaller houses with a lack of outside space, as well as have higher population densities (particularly in deprived urban areas) and lower access to communal green space.27 These will likely increase COVID-19 transmission ratesas was the case with H1N1 where strong associations were found with urbanity.13

The social determinants of health also work to make people from marginalised communities more vulnerable to infection from COVID-19even when they have no underlying health conditions. Decades of research into the psychosocial determinants of health have found that the chronic stress of material and psychological deprivation is associated with immunosuppression.36 Psychosocial feelings of subordination or inferiority as a result of occupying a low position on the social hierarchy stimulate physiological stress responses (eg, raised cortisol levels), which, when prolonged (chronic), can have long-term adverse consequences for physical and mental health.37 By way of example, studies have found consistent associations between low job status (eg, low control and high demands), stress-related morbidity and various chronic conditions including coronary heart disease, hypertension, obesity, musculoskeletal conditions, and psychological ill health.38 Likewise, there is increasing evidence that living in disadvantaged environments may produce a sense of powerlessness and collective threat among residents, leading to chronic stressors that, in time, damage health.39 Studies have also confirmed that adverse psychosocial circumstances increase susceptibilityinfluencing the onset, course and outcome of infectious diseasesincluding respiratory diseases like COVID-19.40

The impact of COVID-19 on health inequalities will not just be in terms of virus-related infection and mortality, but also in terms of the health consequences of the policy responses undertaken in most countries. While traditional public health surveillance measures of contact tracing and individual quarantine were successfully pursued by some countries (most notably by South Korea and Germany) as a way of tackling the virus in the early stages, most other countries failed to do so, and governments worldwide were eventually forced to implement mass quarantine measuresin the form of lockdowns. These state-imposed restrictionsusually requiring the government to take on emergency powershave been implemented to varying levels of severity, but all have in common a significant increase in social isolation and confinement within the home and immediate neighbourhood. The aims of these unprecedented measures are to increase social and physical distancing and thereby reduce the effective reproduction number (eR0) of the virus to less than 1. For example, in the UK, individuals were only allowed to leave the home for one of four reasons (shopping for basic necessities, exercise, medical needs, travelling for work purposes). Following Wuhan province in China, most of the lockdowns have been implemented for 8 to 12weeks.

The immediate pathways through which the COVID-19 emergency lockdowns are likely to have unequal health impacts are multipleranging from unequal experiences of lockdown (eg, due to job and income loss, overcrowding, urbanity, access to green space, key worker roles), how the lockdown itself is shaping the social determinants of health (eg, reduced access to healthcare services for non-COVID-19 reasons as the system is overwhelmed by the pandemic) and inequalities in the immediate health impacts of the lockdown (eg, in mental health and gender-based violence). However, arguably, the longer-term and largest consequences of the great lockdown for health inequalities will be through political and economic pathways (figure 1). The world economy has been severely impacted by COVID-19with almost daily record stock market falls, oil prices have crashed and there are record levels of unemployment (eg, 5.2 million people filed for unemployment benefit in just 1 week in April 2020 in the USA), despite the unprecedented interventionist measures undertaken by some governments and central bankssuch as the 300 billion injection by the UK government to support workers and businesses. The pandemic has slowed Chinas economy with a predicted loss of $65 billion as a minimum in the first quarter of 2020. Economists fear that the economic impact will be far greater than the financial crisis of 2007/2008, and they say that it is likely to be worse in depth than the Great Depression of the 1930s. Just like the 1918 influenza pandemic (which had severe impacts on economic performance and increased poverty rates), the COVID-19 crisis will have huge economic, social andultimatelyhealth consequences.

Previous research has found that sudden economic shocks (like the collapse of communism in the early 1990s and the global financial crisis (GFC) of 200841) lead to increases in morbidity, mental ill health, suicide and death from alcohol and substance use. For example, following the GFC, worldwide an excess of suicides were observed in the USA, England, Spain and Ireland.42 There is also evidence of other increases in poor mental health after the GFC including self-harm and psychiatric morbidity.41 42 These health impacts were not shared equally thoughareas of the UK with higher unemployment rates had greater increases in suicide rates and inequalities in mental health increased with people living in the most deprived areas experiencing the largest increases in psychiatric morbidity and self-harm.43 Further, unemployment (and its well-established negative health impacts in terms of morbidity and mortality38) is disproportionately experienced by those with lower skills or who live in less buoyant local labour markets.27 So, the health consequences of the COVID-19 economic crisis are likely to be similarly unequally distributedexacerbating heath inequalities.

However, the effects of recessions on health inequalities also vary by public policy response with countries such as the UK, Greece, Italy and Spain who imposed austerity (significant cuts in health and social protection budgets) after the GFC experiencing worse population health effects than those countries such as Germany, Iceland and Sweden who opted to maintain public spending and social safety nets.41 Indeed, research has found that countries with higher rates of social protection (such as Sweden) did not experience increases in health inequalities during the 1990s economic recession.44 Similarly, old-age pensions in the UK were protected from austerity cuts after the GFC and research has suggested that this prevented health inequalities increasing amongst the older population.45 These findings are in keeping with previous studies of the effects of public sector and welfare state contractions and expansions on trends in health inequalities in the UK, USA and New Zealand.27 4649 For example, inequalities in premature mortality and infant mortality by income and ethnicity in the USA decreased during the period of welfare expansion in the USA (war on poverty era 1966 to 1980), but they increased again during the ReaganBush period (19802002) when welfare services and healthcare coverage were cut.46 Similarly, in England, inequalities in infant mortality rates reduced as child poverty decreased in a period of public sector and welfare state expansion (from 2000 to 2010),47 but increased again when austerity was implemented and child poverty rates increased (from 2010 to 2017).48

So this essay makes for grim reading for researchers, practitioners and policymakers concerned with health inequalities. Historically, pandemics have been experienced unequally with higher rates of infection and mortality among the most disadvantaged communitiesparticularly in more socially unequal countries.8 9 Emerging evidence from a variety of countries suggests that these inequalities are being mirrored today in the COVID-19 pandemic. Both then and now, these inequalities have emerged through the syndemic nature of COVID-19as it interacts with and exacerbates existing social inequalities in chronic disease and the social determinants of health. COVID-19 has laid bare our longstanding social, economic and political inequalities - even before the COVID-19 pandemic, life expectancy amongst the poorest groups was already declining in the UK and the USA and health inequalities in some European countries have been increasing over the last decade.50 It seems likely that there will be a post-COVID-19 global economic slumpwhich could make the health equity situation even worse, particularly if health-damaging policies of austerity are implemented again. It is vital that this time, the right public policy responses (such as expanding social protection and public services and pursuing green inclusive growth strategies) are undertaken so that the COVID-19 pandemic does not increase health inequalities for future generations. Public health must win the peace as well as the war.

We would like to thank Chris Orton from the Cartographic Unit, Department of Geography, Durham University, for his assistance with the graphics for figure 1.

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The COVID-19 pandemic and health inequalities