Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

The UK government is reportedly considering bringing back national curriculum tests (known as Sats) for 14-year-olds in England. The reasons cited were that, without formal assessment to mark the end of key stage three (KS3 years seven, eight and nine of secondary school) children were at risk of losing focus, and losing out.

The KS3 Sats were abolished in 2008. These tests had first been introduced in 1988 and were used across all national curriculum subjects, including English, maths, science, history, geography, modern foreign languages, design and technology and art and design.

Although many teachers rejoiced when they were scrapped because it apparently reduced their workload, research suggests that disadvantaged students particularly those from ethnic minorities and lower socio-economic backgrounds may be losing out under the current teacher assessment regime. Various education stakeholders since including the former chief inspector of schools, Michael Wilshaw have called for some form of external assessment in year nine to resume.

England is not an outlier in terms of the amount of testing that students face when compared to other countries or in terms of the importance placed on these tests. There may be less testing in Sweden, for example. But research shows that early testing in Germany, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic and many other countries can determine a childs future in a way that does not happen in England (except in a tiny number of grammar schools).

So is bringing back KS3 Sats a good idea?

When the Labour government scrapped them in October 2008, it was considered a historic move. The then education secretary, Ed Balls, claimed that the tests served no real purpose. Additional reasons given for the change included a reduced assessment workload for teachers, the idea that the tests distorted the nature of education and the test anxiety experienced by pupils.

But these reasons do not really stand up to scrutiny. The Sats were replaced by teacher assessments, which meant changing but not reducing the hours teachers had to spend on assessing their pupils progress. Many schools still use KS3 tests and exams for their own purposes anyway, even if they are not a statutory requirement. Schools use such assessments to inform students, teachers and parents about progress, identify areas of support that school leaders can attend to and provide a measure of school performance for governors and others.

And if key-stage testing was abolished because it was distorting the so-called true nature of education, it is not clear why the similar testing of pupils at key stages one, two and four was retained. There was no reason to suggest that teaching to the test was somehow less problematic for pupils aged seven, 11, or 16 than it was at age 14.

Beyond that, in terms of anxiety, wellbeing and happiness, evidence suggests that sitting exams (even at a younger age than 14) does not cause major problems for children.

Further reasons for abolishing KS3 tests have been suggested. But perhaps the biggest factor was the collapse of the US-based testing firm ETS in 2008 which led to many tests remaining unmarked and boxes of pupils responses just sitting around. Perhaps abolition was a political response to the perceived chaos in schools, and not actually related to educational improvement.

So, should KS3 Sats start again (even if they never fully disappeared)? It would certainly be more convenient for researchers such as ourselves who look at pupil progress and how to improve it. Currently we have access to data on assessments at age seven and 11 and then a long gap until age 16. However, this is not a reason likely to sway politicians, teachers or the general public.

A sound reason for a return to testing would be if the teacher assessments currently in use were somehow inaccurate or unfair. This is not entirely clear.

Research suggests that teacher assessment is as stable and reliable as formal testing. However, there is also substantial evidence from the office of Qualifications and Examinations Regulation (the UK governments exam watchdog) and others that disadvantaged students may lose out to their peers in teacher assessment. This applies especially for pupils from some ethnic minorities and lower socio-economic backgrounds.

This issue of children possibly losing out in teacher assessment is important because KS3 results can be part of the step to accessing subject and qualification choices at KS4. If there are some unconscious biases in assessment this may then bias pupils entire future trajectories.Despite the abolition of KS3 Sats in 2008, heavy workload continues to be citedas an obstacle to keeping teachers in the workforce. Many schools are using increasingly sophisticated digital tools and digital standardised and self-marking tests. Such approaches could be helpful in minimising workloads in the event that KS3 Sats (or something similar) were reinstated.

The whole assessment process has, of course, been hit by the pandemic. Two years of national key stage tests results, up to and including A-levels, have been lost. Perhaps now is the time to deal with those problems, and not to add a further test at least yet.

Whatever it chooses to do, the Department for Education must plan a robust evaluation of any proposed change at KS3, with policy led by evidence of its benefits and a solid plan for how to implement it.

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Sats why bringing back tests for 14-year-olds could help disadvantaged students - The Conversation UK

Josep Borrell holds a press conference after a meeting of E.U. Foreign Ministers on the sidelines of the 76th Session of the U.N. General Assembly, in New York, U.S., September 20, 2021. REUTERS/David 'Dee' Delgado

BRUSSELS, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Afghanistan is facing a breakdown of its economic and social systems that risks turning into a humanitarian catastrophe, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Sunday.

Avoiding the worst-case scenario would require the Taliban to comply with conditions that would enable more international assistance, Josep Borrell wrote in a blog post.

"Afghanistan is experiencing a serious humanitarian crisis and a socio-economic collapse is looming, which would be dangerous for Afghans, the region and international security," Borrell wrote.

Food prices in the country have jumped more than 50% since the Taliban took power in August as the freezing of $9 billion of Afghanistan's assets held in foreign central bank reserves and the withdrawal of foreign income stokes inflation.

The Afghan banking system is largely paralysed, with people unable to withdraw money, while the country's health system - which was heavily dependent on foreign aid - is close to collapse, according to Borrell.

"If the situation continues and with winter approaching, this risks turning into a humanitarian catastrophe," he wrote, adding that this could trigger mass migration into neighbouring states.

The 27-country EU has increased its humanitarian aid to Afghanistan since the Taliban took power, but halted its development assistance - a move also taken by other countries and the World Bank.

The EU response to the crisis would depend on the behaviour of the new Afghan authorities, Borrell said, and any resumption of relations would require compliance with conditions including human rights.

"This requires above all that the Taliban take the steps that will enable the international community to assist the Afghan people," he said, adding that female staff from international agencies must be able to do their job.

Widespread reports of human rights abuses and the exclusion of girls from schools have dented optimism that the Taliban's approach has changed since it first ran Afghanistan between 1996 and 2001. read more

Borrell met Qatari officials last week in the Qatari capital Doha, where the Taliban have a representation.

He said Qatar's contacts with the Taliban were aimed at moderating their behaviour, and urged Doha to use its contacts with them to ensure the "worst scenario" for Afghanistan could be avoided.

Reporting by Kate Abnett; Editing by Hugh Lawson

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Afghanistan on verge of socio-economic collapse, EU's top diplomat says - Reuters

"Children are dying of starvation in Afghanistan," said the locals in Ghor, one of the many affected provinces of Afghanistan.

International aid agencies have warned that millions of young children could face major and life-threatening malnutrition by the end of the year, if this matter is not addressed on emergency and war footing.

In Ghor province, at least 17 children have died from malnutrition in the past six months.

Locals say the number of dead is of those, who made it to the hospital and then died, claiming that the situation on ground is much more worse as many have not been able to make it to the hospital and have lost their lives.

"Almost 300 children have been treated for the effects of hunger from the Ghor province only, 17 of who have died," said Mullah Muhammad Ahmadi, Ghor province's Public Health Director.

"Hundreds of children are at risk of starvation in central parts of the country," he added.

Locals in Ghor say that they are in dire condition with almost zero access to water and food, which is leading to major health risks among locals, especially women and children.

"I can tell you that many children have died due to starvation in the recent past. We have no food to feed out children. We have no water. We have no jobs to work and earn for the wellbeing of our families," said Amanullah, a resident of Ghor.

Similar fears have been expressed by the UN Children's Agency (Unicef) in Afghanistan, whose spokesperson stated that a large number of children are paying the price due to malnutrition and starvation.

"I cannot confirm the number of deaths in Ghor but can confirm that a lot of children are paying the ultimate price," he said.

"We are very painfully aware that this is something we are on the brink of, or in the middle of," said Salam Al-Janabi, a representative of Unicef.

The UN has warned that by the end of the year, one million children under the age of five in Afghanistan are expected to need treatment for life threatening acute severe malnutrition, while another 3.3 million will be suffering from acute malnutrition.

Afghanistan is witnessing itself being plunged into severe crisis of the already present humanitarian crisis. The Taliban takeover and coming into power has brought with it major challenges, which many believe are putting the capabilities of the regime to test.

The effects of drought, soaring food prices and job losses, coupled by blocked international aid and financing has pushed Afghanistan on the verge of a socio-economic collapse.

(Hamza Ameer reporting from ground zero 1)

--IANShamza/ksk/

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Starvation claiming lives of children in Afghanistan - Sify News

Ohanaeze Ndigbo Worldwide laments on the ineptitude of the southeast political leaders to show bravery, heroism, and political will to voice the truth to President Muhammadu Buhari on where he is not getting it right in the southeast remains the adversities and calamitous impediments that had befallen the IGBO Ndigbo are cognizant of the fact that Abuja holds the remote controls of most actions of the southeast politicians, most of the southeast Governors are reluctant to make sacrifices for the southeast, they are inclined to trade off the Igbos interests for Abujas enticements and inducements, in compensation for doing Abujas bidding and interests in the East.

We must caution Igbo politicians of the dangers and pitfalls of calamity ahead, the approaching one-month Sit-At-Home are typhoons and hurricanes that might sweep out some political office holders from their offices if care is not taken, the adoption of cosmetic approaches by Governors to the impending civil disobedience and war that looms in the southeast is tragic, the double standards exhibited by Southeast Governors and leaders gave Non-State Actors the legitimate advantage to presses for upcoming one-month Sit-at-Home order if FG declines to arraign IPOB Leader Mazi Nnamdi Kanu in court, the negligence of the recent Security meetings of Southeast Governors and Igbo leaders to openly address the fundamental errors and wrongdoing of FG and demand for the release of Nnamdi Kanu shows that there is an Ace up their sleeves.

The first step in restoring peace in the southeast is to redeem the lost confidence of Ndigbo against southeast Governors, the continuous observation of Sit At Home even when all the efforts to stop it from both ways( IPOB and GOVERNORS) reflects that IGBO is in solidarity with the IPOB leader, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu over his incarceration by FG, the continued apathy of southeast political leaders to tell President Buhari to arraign Nnamdi Kanu, gave hoodlums and perpetrators of the ongoing criminal activities the upper hand to wreak havoc in the southeast, the classified endorsement of Operation Golden Dawn by Southeast political office holders to restore peace and security in the southeast is an acknowledgment of leadership failure and loss of loyalty of the southeast people to their constituted Authorities.

We are worried about the forthcoming one-month Sit-At-Home, the Afghanistan and Syria episodes of revolutionary actions are coming to the southeast, Ndigbo will never accept these scenarios where the will be the collapse of socio-economic and academic activities in the southeast, its mandatory for FG on moral grounds, should arraign Mazi Nnamdi Kanu before Abuja High Court to avert the approaching disaster and chaos that looms in the Southeast , Ohanaeze Ndigbo calls for a cease-fire of the violence in the East and warn the perpetrators to vacate from the southeast instantly, as we caution FG of the consequences of failure to comply with the law to arraign Nnamdi Kanu on 21st October 2021.

Vanguard News Nigeria

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One month sit at home will stir another civil war Ohanaeze Ndigbo - Vanguard

Thank you Vice Chair.

High Commissioner, Excellencies, distinguished delegates.

To say its been another challenging year does not begin to describe the enormity of tasks the humanitarian community have faced in 2021. As we pass the 70th anniversary of the refugee convention we are, as ever, deeply impressed and grateful to UNHCR staff and partners for their extraordinary work helping millions of people caught in the most difficult and dangerous situations. You often provide vital assistance and protection at considerable personal risk. Your commitment to stay and deliver is highly commendable and the UK remains committed to supporting UNHCR financially, politically and through technical cooperation.

With forced displacement at unprecedented levels its more important now than ever to recognise and pay tribute to the huge generosity of host nations and communities in opening their borders and homes to those forced to flee conflict, persecution, and violence.

The UK is firmly committed to supporting refugees and their hosts. We pledged 205 million to the Syria Crisis in 2021, bringing our total support to over 3.7 billion since 2012 and have provided 320m for the Rohingya crisis since 2017. We also continue to provide significant levels of multiyear and un-earmarked funding to UNHCR, which we know you value highly.

The devastating impacts of COVID-19 continue to be felt across the globe. As we feared, it is those who are already the most excluded and marginalised who are hit hardest. We applaud UNHCR for their tireless efforts to ensure access to vaccines for persons of concern alongside other essential humanitarian programmes. We will continue to work hard to ensure the most vulnerable, including refugees, are vaccinated. We must ensure continued collective action to tackle COVID-19 and its secondary impacts, both socio-economic and protection-related, and also ensure lessons are learnt.

As we look around the world, it is clear that nations suffering most from the climate crisis are also those that are the most fragile and conflict affected. Climate change acts as a cruel multiplier, making bad situations worse. The consequences of climate change hit the most vulnerable and threaten to displace millions more people. They hit women and girls particularly hard; from the risk of violence to the threat of child marriage.

The UK is hosting COP26 in just a few weeks time in Glasgow. It will bring parties together to accelerate action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. We hope humanitarian agencies will be part of the discussion and commend UNHCR for highlighting climate change through the work you are already doing.

Last year, the UK launched a Call to Action to Prevent Famine in the face of rising humanitarian needs. Through our G7 Presidency earlier this year, the UK secured the G7s first ever Compact to tackle the drivers of famine helping protect people at imminent risk and address the upward trend in people needing humanitarian aid.

Two weeks ago, the UKs Special Envoy for Famine Prevention was in Ethiopia. He visited Tigray and saw how the deliberate destruction of facilities and objects essential to civilian wellbeing, exacerbated by a denial of humanitarian and commercial access, is driving famine risk. We must ensure humanitarian access improves. The UK condemns the expulsion of seven UN officials last week; they were essential to providing neutral and impartial lifesaving humanitarian assistance to millions of Ethiopian citizens throughout the country. A humanitarian ceasefire is vital and we call on Tigrayan forces to cease their military operations in Amhara and Afar, and for all parties to the conflict to respect International Humanitarian Law and support unfettered access.

The security and political instability in Afghanistan is compounding an already dire humanitarian situation. Like others we are extremely concerned that economic collapse and reduced access to critical services could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe and lead to regional instability.

We encourage strong co-ordination and consistency across UN partners and welcome efforts already made to ensure an adequately resourced, prioritised and coordinated response. We welcome the recent visit by the High Commissioner, an important part of this. The UK is doubling aid to Afghanistan to 286 million this year of which 30 million will provide support for Afghans in the region. This includes 10 million immediately to support the refugee response and preparedness in neighbouring countries and 20 million for countries that experience a refugee influx. We will continue to engage as a core group member of the SSAR.

We are proud of the UKs Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme, which will provide protection for Afghan citizens identified as most at risk, particularly women and girls. We will welcome 5,000 refugees in the first year and 20,000 over the coming years.

We welcome UNHCRs ongoing commitment to organisational reform and have already seen clear benefits of decentralisation. We encourage UNHCR to forge ahead with plans to become an even more effective and efficient organisation with coherent priorities, effective controls and transparent decision-making, and in particular the roll out of the 2025 Risk Strategy.

Finally, December will see the High-Level Officials Meeting of the Global Refugee Forum. This will provide an important platform not only to take stock of progress already made, but crucially to maintain and build on the momentum generated by the Global Compact on Refugees. It will be important to identify priorities, opportunities and decision points for the next two years. The UK is looks forward to contributing to this important milestone. Thank you.

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UK statement for the 72nd session of the UNHCR Executive Committee - GOV.UK

Janavi Da Silva, Director of Programmes at GreenMatter

Looking at the socio-economic blow South Africa was dealt by the pandemic, causing job losses and widespread devastation as well as exacerbating environmental issues, governments must ensure economic recovery plans are heavily geared toward the development of the green economy.

Sustainable economic recovery cannot be achieved by simply returning to economic activity in the pre-COVID sense. Not only will this leave South Africa vulnerable to economic collapse in the event of future unforeseen disruptions (like pandemics), but it also does not serve the environmental goals of the country, or the world at large.

Its no secret that climate change, biodiversity loss, waste management and air and water pollution were problems that the world faced long before the onslaught of COVID-19. A great deal of these challenges is the result of commercial activity such as the manufacturing of goods made from non-recyclable materials, resource inefficiency and a lack of strict policing on the disposal of harmful chemicals used in the production of some of the worlds most in-demand goods and services.

However, these challenges became even bigger issues as a result of the pandemic. While CO2 emissions and water quality did seeslight improvementsin 2020 as a result of people being under lockdown and there being no cars on the road, the pandemic left other issues in its wake. For instance, medical waste in the form ofdiscarded PPE gearhas become an additional environmental challenge to contend with.

Job losses due to the COVID-19 outbreak have also been a major challenge facing the country, with South Africas unemployment rate reaching a record high of34.4%in the second quarter of 2021 an increase from32.6%in the first quarter.

Developing South Africas green economy, with targeted environmental policies put in place by government, ensures more investment from private and public entities is channelled into environmentally responsible economic activities, infrastructure, and assets. This in turn reduces carbon emissions, promotes resource efficiency, and prevents biodiversity loss, all while pursuing economic growth that does not degrade the environment.

The green economy also paves the way for more employment opportunities through the creation of green jobs. Contrary to popular belief, these are not careers reserved for people who are considered activists or eco warriors, but those who will advocate for the environment in their specific capacities and professional contexts. This could range from graduates in natural science fields to, for example, a law graduate focuses on environmental concerns.

Creating an enabling environment for these graduates from all walks of life and learning backgrounds is an essential part of building the green economy. As the future custodians of the countrys natural heritage, South Africa must ensure it nurtures talent and prepares graduates across sectors to pursue sustainable green careers.

Its for this reason that initiatives like theGreenMatter Fellowshipexists. The programme is designed to equip graduates of all disciplines with the skills they need to succeed in the workplace, to advocate for the environment and to help sustainably manage our natural resources for the benefit of all South Africans for generations to come.

The road to economic recovery from the devastating effects of COVID-19 is certainly not an easy one, and there is simply no way South Africa can return to economic activity in the traditional sense and expect to make a real recovery, much less a sustainable one. Ensuring the countrys economic recovery plan is geared for sustainability and environmental conservation is the key to building a thriving, resilient economy.

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Economic Recovery From Covid-19 Relies On The Green Economy - Africa.com

Itisremarkable that liberal and authoritarian states around the globe alike turned toultra-radical policy measures and largely outlawed fundamental liberties including the right toleave ones country, city oreven home, atleast temporarily, not seen since the exceptional times ofmartial law, the Chinese Hukou system orthe Soviet era, writes Franck Dvell, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Migration Research and Intercultural Studies, Osnabrck University.

Early 2020, Earth was struck byapandemic, not for the first time though but this time itcaused aglobal moral panic. The initial response tofight the spread ofthe virus was tofight mobility and international migration, internal mobility, commuting towork and even short trips for shopping orvisiting family and friends were largely banned. Basically, the engine that drives much oftodays economy and social life mobility came toagrinding halt; only digital industries, the transportation and delivery sectors and certain key industries were spared and partly even thrived. Still, working-hours equivalent to100 million full-time jobs were lostand the global economy has dropped by3.2 to4.5%, aloss of4 or even 8trillionUS dollar. Asaside-effect, many fundamental rights and civil liberties such asthe right totravel, work, education orfamily life ortogather for political purposes were defacto suspended.

Crises often highlight orexacerbate issues that had already been looming but were often concealed ofanotherwise healthy-looking situation. For example, the arrival oflarge numbers ofrefugees frequently reveals pre-existing latent nationalism and xenophobia. History also shows that crises can and have been exploited topush through policies that had already been inthe drawers but were considered too controversial tobeput into practice. For example, the dismantling ofworkers and welfare rights from the 1970s inEurope and theUS only became possible inthe wake ofthe economic crisis. And this year,warningshave been issued not tomisuse public health issues for other political purposes; though mycontributions suggests that these have not been acknowledged everywhere.

The pandemic struck atatime ofand thus overlaps with several other crises, the protracted Syrian crisis, theglobal refugee crisisnumbers have reached record level, the crisis oftheEU partly triggered byBrexit aswell asthe rise ofilliberal and/or Eurosceptic forces and political turmoil intheUS and elsewhere, and now the Afghanistan crisis. Itthus occurred attimes ofafundamental transformation ofthe global socio-economic and political order all causing uncertainties and tensions.

Notably, mobility had already been widely looked atwith increasing anxiety. Inmany countries, anti-migration sentiments and xenophobia had for long been onthe rise. This spurred asecuritisation ofmigration and the pandemic added concerns over health security tothis already strong trend. Migration and migrants are now widely perceived asrisks. This isfuelled bythe climate crisis which has already been raising doubts over the future ofextensive driving, flying and traveling asissotypical for our hyper-mobile era; the pandemic further accelerated this trend. Also the rise ofauthoritarian ruling had been noticed inmany parts ofthe world and the pandemic only spurred this trend. Itisvery likely that atleast some ofthe new features, notably new lines ofmigration and border controls such ashealth controls and traveller tracking and tracing apps will exist beyond the end ofthe pandemic just asmany ofthe measures introduced after 9/11 are still operational.

The recentreportbyDmitri Poletaev and Andrei Korobkov onInternational Migration inPandemic Times published bythe Valdai Club isnot only sorelevant because itadds tointernational scholarship the cases ofRussia and Central Asia, cases which are sooften and annoyingly neglected bywestern academia. The report also reveals some important similarities and differences between Russia, theUS and other countries.

Onthe one hand, itshows that inRussia, aswell asinGermany, theUK orDubai the pandemic exposes the vulnerability ofmigrants, notably their often precarious immigration status aswell astheir precarious employment situation. Italso illustrates how close many ofthem and their families are onthe brink ofpoverty: many lost their job but are not eligible tobenefits and have thus become destitute. This, wecould clearly see, isaglobal phenomenon affecting migrants inRussia, Germany and elsewhere alike.

Onthe other hand, the report implies, for example, that reverse migration ofmigrant workers seems more dramatic inRussia but also intheUK (partly driven byBrexit) orthe Gulf countries than, for example, inGermany. Itcan beassumed that this isbecause immigrants inGermany often have apermanent status and thus access towelfare rights sothat they are affected less severe than those migrants with atemporary and thus precarious status; hence, incountries with more settled immigrants fewer people are severely affected bythe economic consequences ofthe pandemic sothat the pressure toreturn isless strong.

Further tothis, Poletaev and Korobkov imply that also the different countries oforigin inthe different regional migration systems are affected quite differently bythis great reverse migration and the subsequent collapse ofremittances ofmigrants. Whereas intheEU migrants intheir majority come from other member states they did not immediately plunge into severe poverty upon return; incontrast, inthe already poor Central Asian republics the return ofthe now unemployed migrants and the breakdown ofthe all-important remittances pushed many families into despair, asinUzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Apotential side-effect ofthe increase ofglobal poverty due tothe loss ofincome from migrant work wemight only see inthe future: rising poverty could potentially fuel social discontent which inturn may lead tothe destabilisation ofentire regions and countries. This would cause more future forced migration which would affect the still affluent countries, also the international relations between the different countries would bedistorted.

The surprising decline ofxenophobia inRussia, asopposed, for example, toGermanyis, however, deceptive, asthe authors show asithas been only retreating due tothe now limited contacts between Russians and migrants; xenophobia israther sleeping than diminishing asthey argue convincingly.

Only implicitly the report also highlights acouple ofother important differences between Russia, theUS and someEU countries and between specific groups ofmigrants. For instance, migrants toRussia are more likely tobelow-skilled filling gaps atthe bottom ofthe labour market and whilst intheUS and theEU wefind similar patterns there isnevertheless astrong focus onskilled migration.

Also, inwestern countries the proportion ofrefugees who since 2020 find iteven more difficult tomigrate issignificantly higher than inRussia; therefore, the decline ofinternational refugee migration toOECD countries isfelt more pronounced inthe West than inthe East. Indeed, weprobably need tocome toterms with the fact that inthe wake ofthe pandemic the west has been silently accelerating the demolition ofthe international refugee system. Notably, the Afghanistan crisis suggests that large-scale forced migration will becombatted byall means necessary whilst being replaced byaregime ofcomparably small-scale evacuations and resettlements. This suggests, that the pandemic has been used toreverse animportant element ofthe post-war western liberal and human rights-based system; anelement that Russia and other countries inthe Global East never (fully) implemented anyway.

Generally, generic references tomigration tend toobscure differences between and discrimination ofspecific group, notably women, specific nationalities orethnicities, families and children orirregular immigrants. But many reports demonstrate that the pandemic exacerbated structural inequality and thus the vulnerability ofmany people. For example, becausemigrant womenare disproportionally employed ininformal services they have been more likely tolose their jobs due tolockdowns whilst simultaneously excluded from benefits. The same goes for irregular immigrants. Also, transnational families, astypical inmigration, have been separated for long periods oftime; notablychildrenhave been affected the worst.

Toconclude, itisremarkable that liberal and authoritarian states around the globe alike turned toultra-radical policy measures and largely outlawed fundamental liberties including the right toleave ones country, city oreven home, atleast temporarily, not seen since the exceptional times ofmartial law, the Chinese Hukou system orthe Soviet era. States, the pandemic has shown, still have the power toalmost fully control migration; infact, nationalism and national interests once more trump rights-based, multilateral orsupranational arrangements. This disprovesprevious claimsthat under conditions ofglobalisation states have lost control over their borders; rather the opposite isthe case, border controls have been modernised and intensified and are more effective than ever before. Some ofthe new migration selection criteria and new control lines are very likely tostay. The pandemic thus accelerates the trend tofacilitating migration ofskilled workers into key industries whilst preventing undesirable migration; italso drives replacing migration and mobility with remote working. Itremains tobeseen whether and towhat extent the pandemic spurs aparadigmatic shiftinsocio-political and economic policies, the often-mentionednew normal.

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The Pandemic and International Migration: Exploiting the Healthcare Crisis to Reform Mobility Governance - Valdai Discussion Club

From 1990 till Sept 2001, Pakistan was under US sanctions and was put on the watch list of countries abetting terrorism. After 9/11, Pakistan breathed a sigh of relief when it was taken off the hit list, and its sanctions were removed and debts rescheduled by the US, but it was at the cost of betraying the friendly Taliban regime and earning the ire of Islamists in the country and also cause of great instability in Pak-Afghan region.

The US in concert with India put all the stage-managed terror attacks and false flag operations in India and IOK in the basket of Pakistan so as to isolate it and declare it a terrorist state. All the anti-Pakistan narratives of India based on falsehood were readily accepted and supported while Pakistans explanations were out rightly rejected and were penalized. Series of dangerous plans were hatched and executed to denuclearize and unravel Pakistan or to make it a compliant state.

Read more: Analyzing the stimulated instability in Pak-Afghan region (Part 1)

The US tilted the conventional military balance heavily in favor of India and Indias nuclear program bolstered to disturb the nuclear parity achieved by Pakistan. Indian friendship with Israel was encouraged and no eyebrows were raised when Israel became the largest supplier of sophisticated arms to India. On the other hand, Pakistans friendship with China and procurement of arms caused consternation to the US.

Indias partnership with Iran and development of Chahbahar port to undermine Gwadar port, and to provide alternative trade routes to landlocked Afghanistan dependent upon Pakistan, to access Iranian and Central Asian markets were encouraged. However, Gwadar and CPEC chagrined the US. RAW-NDS guided by the CIA made vigorous efforts to scuttle the CPEC with the help of proxies.

The Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project which could have helped Pakistan in overcoming its energy crisis and in improving bilateral relations was sabotaged by the US.

In the war imposed by the US for the attainment of its geo-strategic and geo-economic goals, the US earned nothing except for ignominy. Pakistan suffered 80,000 human losses, double the number of injuries, and a financial loss of $ 150 billion as against the $ 20 billion US assistance, the bulk of which was under the head of CSF. Pakistan also earned nothing out of this senseless war, which crippled its economy and caused immeasurable trauma to the nation. However, it draws satisfaction of being the only country that defeated terrorism on its soil and rumpled innumerable conspiracies.

Read more: Afghanistan highlights link between religious soft power and Gulf states security

While Pakistan bore the pains of terrorism courageously and didnt wail, but the unbearable pain was the deceit and black ingratitude of the thankless USA. The dual-faced USA bloodying the Af-Pak region kept bawling during the war and is still howling after the war.

Islamophobic India is continuing to play dirty tricks to create trouble for Pakistan. The sudden loss of prized Afghanistan has sent the BJP regime into a state of shock and mourning. In an effort to spoil Taliban- Pakistan relations, Indian media tried to undermine the formers splendid victory by giving credit to Pak Army. The fall of Panjshir was also attributed to the support of PAF and Pak commandos, but its loss dashed Indias last hope of stimulating terrorism from the north.

Although Indias main base of terrorism in Afghanistan has collapsed after the closure of its terror emitting 70 training camps and RAW offices, it is exploring new techniques and avenues to export terrorism into Pakistan. India is frantically trying to regain ground in Iran so as to use its soil for cross-border terrorism in Pakistan. It is also poisoning the ears of Iranian leadership against the Taliban, with whom Tehran had developed an understanding. Fed by India, Iran also accused Pakistan of its hand in the capture of Panjshir by the Taliban.

Like the duplicitous USA, which has suddenly got worried over the plight of the women and minorities in Afghanistan, hypocritical India also took the same path of hypocrisy. Hindutva loving and Muslim hating Modi in his last address to the UNGA said that the international community should help the women, children and minorities of Afghanistan. He indirectly blamed Pakistan for exploiting the fluid situation of the war-ravaged country to serve its selfish interests.

Who doesnt know that his fascist regime has unleashed a reign of terror against 200 million Muslims in India and is breaking all records of state terrorism and human rights in J&K and rape is used as a tool to break the will of Kashmiris. India has become notorious for rapes.

In its bid to pose a twin threat to Pakistan and to isolate it, India is itself faced with a twin threat from China and Pakistan and is getting isolated.

Indian media is continuing to spin fake news and stories to vilify Pakistan. After a series of exposures including the latest of notorious lies peddler Indian anchor Goswami, he became a butt of mockery when he insisted that ISI officers were staying on the 5th floor of Kabuls Serena Hotel when the hotel has only two floors. Indias ugly face is getting uncovered before the world and it is becoming increasingly difficult for Modi and his RSS team to befool the world. Modi was received by angry protesters in Washington chanting slogans against his Hindutva and compared him to Hitler.

Read more: Financial Times report says PM Khan was right about Afghanistan

Smarting under the pangs of humiliation and having no explanation to make as to why the US wasted $ 2.3 trillion in the known graveyard of empires, suffered a defeat and exited from Afghanistan in disgrace, the US civil and military leaders instead of introspection and learning lessons, are using the same old plot of putting the whole blame on Pakistan. Garbage to slander Pakistan is provided by India.

Instead of helping the struggling new regime in Kabul to overcome its teething problems, emphasis is on broad-based inclusive government, human and women rights. The Taliban are unjustly accused of not fulfilling the commitments.

What is the guarantee that the so-called inclusive government will succeed in achieving peace and stability, particularly when the detractors are bent upon destroying peace? Instead of putting frivolous demands and creating hurdles, why is the US reluctant to extend a helping hand? It is the biggest hindrance in the way of diplomatic recognition of the Taliban, which is now being painted as the biggest terrorist organization?

India and the US are jointly chalking out plans to throw the whole blame of the Taliban victory on Pakistan. Both have stepped up efforts to penalize Pakistan, prevent the Taliban from restoring peace, and create misgivings between the two neighbors.

After several inimical statements of the US senior officials, 22 Republican Senators moved a bill in the Senate Committee on Sept 28 to probe Pakistan States clandestine support to the Taliban between 2001 and 2020, allegedly providing sanctuaries, financial, intelligence, logistics, training & equipment to their fighters, and guiding them on tactical/operational/strategic techniques, which led to the collapse of the Kabul regime and fall of Panjshir Valley. Its a charge-sheet framed against Pakistan, aimed at imposing sanctions and preventing Pakistan from extending moral, diplomatic and socio-economic support to Afghanistan.

Read more: US war in Afghanistan was a strategic failure: Top US general

Ignoring the reality that the US had broken the pledges given in the Doha agreement (removing Taliban leaders from a blacklist, releasing Taliban 6000 prisoners, not attacking positions of the Taliban, and pulling out by May 1, 2021), the senators subscribed to the allegations of the US ground commanders that the Taliban didnt honor their commitments.

They overlooked the fact that there was no restriction imposed on the Taliban to desist from targeting ANA or to attack big cities before the cutout date. There was no clause in the Doha deal in which troop withdrawal was made conditional to a political settlement with the Afghan regime. The condition of intra-Afghan dialogue was fulfilled by the Taliban by starting talks in Sept 2020 irrespective of Ashraf Ghanis failure to release their prisoners. The senators baselessly accused the Taliban of not breaking ties with Al-Qaeda and being in collusion with Daesh-K, the two creations of the CIA.

The truth is that the Taliban didnt break a single commitment. Not only they refrained from attacking foreign troops between March 2020 and August 2021 but allowed them to exit safely. Hotheaded senators want to impose sanctions on the new regime just because they managed to floor the Goliath claiming to be invincible. They want the evolution of new strategies for the renewal of counterterrorism and have given six months time for implementation.

It is a clear indication that the US has not given up its imperialist and jingoistic policies and bullying tactics. These intimidating tactics are ploys to undermine the historic victory of the Taliban, to blame Pakistan that without its support victory was impossible, incapacitate Afghanistans economy, all in a bid to cover up the embarrassment of mortifying defeat.

Scapegoating Pakistan for the imperial hubris of an occupying force will not help in removing the stigma of defeat, or in restoring the lost glory. The fall of Kabul is being compared with the fall of Saigon. The scars of the rout will haunt the US for times to come.

The egoist USA is refusing to admit that without Pakistans support, it couldnt have occupied Afghanistan in 2001, couldnt have dragged the war for so long without logistic supply lines provided by Pakistan, and couldnt have pulled out safely without Pakistans cooperation.

Read more: Top US generals accuse Biden of lying about Afghanistan withdrawal

Hypothetically, if the US irrational contention is accepted, how could Pakistans discreet support which itself was faced with an existential threat from the foreign paid proxies, faced with a highly discriminatory attitude of the US, engulfed in unstable economic and political conditions, and stung by swarms of snakes in the grass, could turn the dice in favor of the Taliban? After pushing out HN from North Waziristan to Khost in 2015, they were their baby to deal with. No proof of safe havens in Pakistan was furnished by the US since there were none.

This ludicrous story is akin to the lie cooked up by late Mujibur Rahman that the marooned Pakistani military force in former East Pakistan, cut off from the world and engulfed in fighting lakhs of Indian aided Bengali rebels and faced with the threat of military intervention by India, had massacred 3 million Bengalis and raped 300,000 Bengali women in the nine-month period.

Why doesnt the US accept the defeat gracefully and admit that it was owing to providential help which enabled the Taliban to achieve the miracle? It should be thankful to Allah for managing to extricate itself from the quagmire with its military and economic power intact.

Does by any chance the power-crazy USA wish to challenge the will of Allah Almighty and invite His wrath? Its war-mongering and roguish partners in crime Israel, India, and UK as well as Pentagon, are goading Biden to re-ignite the embers of terrorism and stimulate instability in the Af-Pak region with the help of proxy war, airpower and drones.

Like Al-Qaeda, Daesh-K under Mahajir which is an offshoot of ISIS has an international agenda. After creating havoc in Iraq and Syria, it is now planning to create anarchy in the Af-Pak region as well as in China in league with TTP, BLA, ETIM and IMU.

The writer is a retired Brig Gen, war veteran, defense & security analyst, international columnist, author of five books, Chairman Thinkers Forum Pakistan, Director Measac Research Centre, & Member CWC PESS & Think Tank. He can be reached at asifharoonraja@gmail.com.The views expressed in this article are the authors own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Global Village Space (GVS).

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Analyzing the stimulated instability in Pak-Afghan region (Part 4) - Global Village space

Introduction

In 2020, Lebanon experienced total economic collapse, continued social unrest, and pressures stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, which were all compounded by the Beirut explosion on 4 August in which over 200 were killed, 7,500 were injured and approximately 300,000 displaced. Indications of an impending economic down-turn had already begun in the summer of 2019 when the value of the Lebanese Lira began to decline. A proposed tax on WhatsApp calls in Lebanon on 17 October 2019 sparked a months-long revolutionary moment seeking to topple the corrupt political class. The Lebanese Lira, pegged to the US dollar at 1,500 since 1997 had plummeted to an average of 23,000 by August 2021, losing almost 90% of its value in 18 months. According to the Human Rights Watch, the number of those living below the poverty line has doubled, and tripled for those already living in extreme poverty in the past year. By August 2021, most Lebanese are experiencing severe power outages, with access to electricity for only a few hours a day. This development has been compounded by the Central Banks decision to lift subsidies on fuel, leaving many fuel distributors hoarding their stocks and selling at higher rates. Consequently, hospitals now find themselves in a dire state. The American University of Beirut Medical Center (AUBMC) issued a statement on 14 August 2021 that in two days it would no longer have enough fuel, potentially resulting in the death of 150 patients on respirators and dialysis machines.

Due to these multiple disasters, the Lebanese have experienced much stress which has been detrimental to the mental health of the population. The Lebanese have a long history with political turmoil yet discussing mental health is considered culturally taboo. This leads to a failure to address mental health issues which goes back several generations, as exemplified by the country-wide amnesia surrounding the civil war.

Responses to mental health in Lebanon and the region more broadly remain under-supported. In the months to come, challenges surrounding this health sector will be critical in Lebanons transition out of crisis. This paper therefore seeks to investigate the current state of the mental health system in Lebanon and provides policy recommendations to improve its adaptability in responding to this multifaceted crisis. By mental health system and infrastructure, we include public institutions pertaining to mental health, private hospitals, and various civil society actors (non-profit governmental organizations etc.) providing psycho-social support services. Addressing mental health in Lebanon will be essential to alleviate the suffering which is plaguing the population, but will also aid in realizing the goals of the October 2019 revolution for a break with the past and its legacies. A substantial political transition will require tools to manage mental health needs, which will, in turn, be reflected in how citizens are able to create, organize and reimagine state institutions and the overall political stability of the country.

Trauma may often distort a collective or individual memory. In the context of conflict-ridden societies, individuals suppress memories of their own communitys complicity in war crimes, attributing their own actions to self-defense. Moreover, dogma, established hierarchies, and identity-based fears derived from trauma can cause people to vote for or politically support entities that do not serve the interests of the individual or community in question. Turning to the United States, we can observe the case of the white working class, in which many citizens throughout forgotten America'' assign their allegiance to political actors due to anxieties over the perceived loss of their way of life or resources stemming from increased social mobility of minorities. In reality, the policies of the political actors they support do harm to such communities (by reducing access to healthcare and social welfare, lack of environmental protections, and the like). The perceived disruption of their imagined identity at the top of the social hierarchy in the American landscape has led some to identify with political forces at the cost of their health and livelihoods. For example, campaigns produced by the National Rifle Association claim the ownership of weapons will restore the white man's privilege and the balance of power, when in fact firearms have been proven to be one of the leading causes of white, male suicide. Leaders seeking to consolidate and maintain power will exploit these emotionally and historically charged grievances. This method is brutally effective, precisely because it links political participation to these grievances, and by consequence a narrative of imagined victimhood and desire for domination.

Similarly, in the Lebanese case, we can see a parallel in how various communities continue to politically support sectarian parties and individuals despite their proven track record of spreading misinformation, impunity for their criminal behavior, and corruption. According to emerging trends in the literature, particularly regarding the effects of clientelism, some scholars would argue that members of different communities, driven by fear-based identity politics, continue to either ignore or justify the acts of their sectarian leaders due to a belief that their survival is at stake and rests in the hands of these leaders. This dependency is only amplified by traumas of the past that fell along sectarian cleavages. Another common feature of communities affected by violent conflict is sequential traumatization. This occurs when a series of traumatic events through micro-aggressions to more overt aggressions are processed unconsciously, which can accumulate into a post-traumatic stress disorder. This accumulation of trauma in the population may impact its capacity to react to transgressions made on the part of the ruling political class. Consequently, adequately addressing the psychological implications of political unrest becomes that much more important and may contribute to political stability.

The Lebanese population has long been exposed to conflict-related traumas and domestic instability, triggering a range of mental health disorders. Even preceding the current protracted crisis, around a quarter of adults in Lebanon suffered from one psychiatric disorder, demonstrating particularly high rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (approximately 25%). The last comprehensive study conducted on the prevalence of various disorders in Lebanon dates back to 2006. According to this study, the most common disorders amongst the Lebanese population were phobias, depression, and anxiety, often linked to war-related trauma. Depression was shown to be the most common individual disorder, with anxiety disorders found in 16.7% of the population and mood disorders in 12.6%. Approximately 4.3% of the population also experienced suicidal ideation. Individuals exposed to war-related trauma, possess a higher risk for developing one of these disorders, being three times more likely to develop a mood disorder and two times more likely to develop an anxiety disorder. This compounding risk is likely to have a pervasive impact in Lebanon, where approximately 70% of the population has been exposed to one or more instances of violent conflict.

In Lebanon, mental health needs are tackled by three main actors. Firstly, there are public institutions that consist of different branches within the Ministry of Health. Secondly, there are private hospitals and clinics that operate outside the public sphere. Thirdly, within civil society, there is a range of local, and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that fill the gap where state structures are insufficient. The following sections seek to explore the role each has played in the treatment of the mental health of the population.

Before 2013, the establishment of mental health infrastructure in Lebanon had been led primarily by the private sector, that is, private hospitals. Beyond private actors, local and INGOs would additionally work alongside these private intuitions. In 2014, the Ministry of Public Health launched the National Mental Health Program along with a five-year Mental Health and Substance Use Strategy to better adhere to the WHOs Global Action Plan for Mental Health 2013-2020. This strategy aimed to train primary care workers, introduce the dissemination of evidence-based treatments, and increase accessibility of services to Syrian refugees. Another pillar of this initiative has been to expand support for research in this sector. This research includes projects seeking to improve access to the WHOs Problem Management Plus program using technology, to enhance similar programs for children and adolescents, and to develop family-focused psychosocial support for at-risk youth. The Ministry of Public Health typically contracts out private hospitals to serve those requiring inpatient care. Only three mental hospitals and five psychiatric units placed within general hospitals operated in Lebanon prior to the Beirut explosion.

In terms of coverage, the Ministry of Public Health allocates only 1% of its budget for patients seeking treatment for mental health conditions. This percentage subsidizes the cases of hospitalization in three designated government hospitals, along with a small quota for private hospitalization. The Ministry also provides psychiatric medication. The National Social Security Fund covers hospitalization in one of the three designated hospitals, psychiatric medication, and a portion of private consultation fees. Members of the military and public employees also receive coverage for medication, a percentage of consultation fees, and hospitalization. Specifically, public servants possess public health insurance through the Cooperative of Civil Servants. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) covers 85-90% of fees for Syrian refugees and PCR tests for COVID-19, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) covers fees for Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, and various NGOs in civil society cover Lebanese who cannot afford coverage or insurance. With regards to vulnerable people, the Ministry has identified 13 vulnerable/marginalized communities in its strategy to improve mental health services in the country. Often, these are individuals who are not registered legally in the country and possess barriers to accessing services. Support for LGBTQI people also remains limited to services available within Beirut, with NGOs such as Mosaic, LebMASH, SIDC, and the International Medical Corps playing a large role in this community.

In 2013, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health set up, in partnership with WHO and UNICEF, a Psychosocial Support Task Force (MHPSS TF). According to a former employee of the MHPSS TF, the unit coordinates with over 62 mental health and psychosocial non-governmental actors and seeks to implement various evidence-based interventions. These strategies include the integration of mental health into primary healthcare, developing community-based multidisciplinary mental health teams, training service providers on interpersonal psychotherapy, and piloting e-mental health services. Following the Beirut explosion, this initiative also established a comprehensive directory of mental health professionals for mental health support for those affected.

The former employee of the MHPSS TF highlighted how the general concerns surrounding trust in governance does not affect the work of the task force, as their expertise is sectoral, non-political, and transparent. One way in which the task force claims to operate is to map which actors are working on which issues, highlighting which services are available and which mental health disorders are prevalent on a platform administered by the ministry. Organizations and relevant actors sign MOUs with the task force agreeing to report their activities, and in return they can access information regarding needs in the general population mapped by the task force. Despite the alleged positive relations between the task force and these organizations, not all their activities are reported consistently to the task force due to the burden of their own work loads, obligations to external donors, and/or an absence of funding contingent on this reporting as incentive.

We interviewed Dr. Georges Karam, to understand more about the role of civil society actors in the crisis.

Despite the claims made by the ministry of health, civil society actors painted a completely different picture concerning their work with the Ministry on the ground. The head of the Institute for Development, Research, Advocacy and Applied Care (IDRAAC), an NGO, Dr. Georges Karam, asserts that the Ministry of Public Health has not performed its due diligence in providing adequate resources to civil society actors who function as part of the Task Force. He claimed that the ministry had not fulfilled its duty to address issues brought up by different NGOs, for instance the shortage of in-patient psychiatric facilities due to the pandemic. After a year and half of inaction, the ministry of health ultimately delegated responsibility to various NGOs to retrieve the necessary funds to build new facilities.

Of the NGOs involved in mental healthcare, International Medical Corps, ABAAD, Embrace, IDRAAC and Mdecins Sans Frontires remain the largest participants in the partnership with the Ministry of Public Health. Specifically, with regards to the COVID-19 pandemic, MHPSS identified its goals in working with such partners is to raise awareness on ways to cope with the stresses associated with the crisis, orient individuals to the available national lifeline and call centers, provide mental health support for those in quarantine, and support the mental health of healthcare workers and first responders.

IDRAAC gave some examples of the activities NGOs implement for mental health promotion. IDRAAC has played an active role in advancing academic work concerning the mental health sector, producing over 200 publications. Moreover, the institute has advocated for the reform of mental health legislation and led several public awareness campaigns. As a response to the Beirut port explosion, they have created a free walk-in clinic for psychological first aid and psychological assessments, as well as a 24/7 hotline.

Gaps exist in Lebanons mental health infrastructure. Beyond a general need for increased funding and expertise, one main challenge is the need to establish a solid referral system between all levels of care to guarantee access to outpatient- as well as in-patient services for persons with mental disorders. Lebanon has about 1.5 psychiatrists per 100,000 people, with most working in private practice or NGOs. In addition to a serious lack of resources, the majority of Lebanese with chronic mental health disorders do not seek help or treatment due to a lack of awareness regarding these disorders, along with various barriers (such as financial limitations and lack of resources) and social stigma. , , A study conducted in Lebanon showed that individuals with symptoms of anxiety may take 6-28 years to seek and receive the relevant treatment due to the societal barriers listed above. The failure to assess these cases can lead to a more rapid progression of these chronic disorders towards a state of debilitation. Mental health services receive minimal support from the state and qualify for little to no private insurance coverage. These services are concentrated in urban areas and remain underfunded. Geographical limitations are most pronounced in regions like Akkar, Marjeyoun, the areas near the Lebanese/Israeli border, and the Baalbek/Hermel area, which remain remote and demonstrate a lack of professionals in the mental health sector.

These mental health challenges have been exacerbated by the economic collapse of the country beginning in October 2019, only augmenting these barriers for those exhibiting chronic mental illness or new on-set disorders, particularly for especially vulnerable populations such as low-income groups and marginalized communities (e.g. refugees, migrant workers, etc.). Bouts of depression became more prevalent following the protests that erupted across the country in the same period and the subsequent economic crisis. Following the Beirut explosion in August 2020, many have reached levels of pathological depression. Moreover, individuals experiencing other mental health disorders have since relapsed. Lebanons National Emotional Support and Suicide Hotline, administered by the NGO Embrace, reports receiving triple the calls in 2020 than they did in 2019, due in part to the factors described above along with pressures derived from coronavirus-related lockdowns. This rise in needs has been paralleled by a massive blow to the countrys capacity to respond. In 2020, two in-patient psychiatric units were destroyed by the Beirut explosion and others were closed due to bed shortages in light of the COVID pandemic. Prior to the Beirut explosion, Lebanon was already experiencing a shortage of beds in such units. The head of IDRAAC urged for more in-patient psychiatric facilities due to the pandemic, which the ministry of health failed to coordinate. Dr. Karam added that medication shortages have become more common because patients have been rationing months-worth of psychiatric medications when they are restocked due to the economic crisis and the Central Bank's decision to no longer subsidize medications.

Moreover, current structures and initiatives must also do more to acknowledge and adequately respond to the varying levels of vulnerability exhibited by different populations, particularly refugees, stateless people, and domestic workers. In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, these existing vulnerabilities have been exacerbated, triggering a range of mental health disorders. For many individuals in these communities, anxiety surrounding deportation, eviction, discrimination, and the potential loss of their livelihoods has led to immense psychosocial distress. In April 2020, more incidents of suicide were reported among refugees, along with a rise in cases of threats to self-harm and harm others, domestic violence, and divorce. Due to pressures surrounding housing and evictions, refugee women in particular are at risk of experiencing sexual and gender-based violence in this context. As a result of these factors, the refugee population is experiencing higher levels of mental health disorders, particularly anxiety, which may lead to longer-term and more severe iterations of these disorders. The prevalence of depression in the refugee population is estimated at 1 in every 4.

In addition to refugees and displaced people, similar social and economic pressures placed on domestic migrant workers in Lebanon have also been exacerbated by the multifaceted crisis. According to Mdecins Sans Frontires, the most severe forms of mental health symptoms were exhibited by female migrant workers who have approached them for psychosocial services, of whom 30% are suffering from depressive disorders and 27% demonstrate symptoms of psychotic disorders since the start of the pandemic.

According to the former member of the MPHSS Task Force, stigma and concern for confidentiality surrounding mental health disorders remain one of the largest challenges for treatment in Lebanon today. In a recent study, participants cited a lack of trust in the healthcare system, the quantity of services and the ability of specialists to adequately address needs and respect confidentiality. Moreover, many people are unaware of the proximity of organizations and their available services. As a result, these organizations often only target the same category or people in their campaigns, typically teenagers and those with access to social media. Various campaigns have been carried out on television through the Ministry of Health, though this approach has become more infrequent since the advent of the recent crises. Individuals from lower socio-economic status, the elderly, and those exhibiting extreme mental health conditions are the ones who are more likely to fall through the cracks of service provision. The former employee of the MPHSS Task Force also cited funding as a concern up until the Beirut explosion. Following the explosion, there has been an influx of funding and services, which in turn has allowed for enhanced awareness.

Improving approaches to treating mental health needs in Lebanon proves complex yet, in light of recent events, absolutely paramount. The range of related challenges calls for a variety of tools and solutions.

At the level of governance, the former MHPSS TF member urged for certain draft laws to be enacted which have been neglected by the parliament, for instance one which would make the MHPSS Task Force an official arm of the Ministry of Health with a substantial budget. This recognition would give the Mental Health department greater legitimacy and, as a result, normalize its role in public health more broadly. Greater allocation of funding to this department, particularly for better coverage of out-patient care as well as hospitalizations, would also allow for more coverage for individuals as only 1% of funds reach this department. Another example of a draft law submitted and neglected by the parliament is the law on the legalizing marijuana and those affected by substance abuse disorders, which would push for a larger focus on rehabilitation and reintegration rather than subjecting marijuana users to harsh prison sentences.

Beyond substance abuse, the only existing law pertaining to mental health in Lebanon is the Welfare Act and Protection and Treatment of Mentally Ill Patients (Legislative Decree no. 72-9/9/1993). It has been determined by lawyers Nizar Saghieh and Rana Saghieh to not be in conformity with international standards. In 2014, Legal Agenda reviewed and revised the statute with suggested amendments, which was endorsed by the Ministry of Health's National Mental Health Program. The draft law would define mental health based on international standards, stipulate clear procedures to promote treatment and the explicit responsibility of the state to realize these goals. Both through allocated funding for free out-patient care and the establishment of community-based mental health care centers for prevention, treatment and rehabilitation, the State would uphold its obligations. Moreover, this law would prioritize three objectives: first, to protect the rights of people with mental health disorders and their fundamental rights, particularly against discrimination and stigma. Second, the law would address concerns over equal access to services; and thirdly, it would regulate the involuntary admission of patients through judicial safeguards. However, this updated version remains a draft to date.

In terms of research, the last comprehensive study of mental health disorders and their prevalence in the Lebanese population is over 10 years old, underscoring the need for an updated, comprehensive study, particularly following the various instances of collective trauma of the past two years and the subsequent mental health needs. Overall, more research is needed to justify the redirection of legislation, policy, funding and services to alternative approaches that are cost-effective for those in need, and remains rooted in human-rights based and community-based models that are consistently monitored.

Within the healthcare system itself, there must be campaigns that are accessible to those who are not active on social media or from a low socio-economic status. Such campaigns may include appearances on local news channels with viewers of varied demographics as televisions are more widely available then social media. According to the former ministry of health worker, news appearances for mental health campaigns were common prior to the Beirut explosion, but seem to have decreased in frequency since then. Specifically, such campaigns must aggressively address the prevailing obstacle that is stigma and confidentiality in Lebanon in seeking mental health support. The state structures must also include in their educational campaigns education surrounding coping strategies and prevention that also prioritizes and normalizes informal care before individuals arrive at mental health disorders that require hospitalization. An effective referral system must be established here that expands upon the linkages established by the task force and civil society actors to ensure individuals receive continuous care. According to the founder of IDRAAC, studies conducted by the association demonstrate that individuals do not seek mental health care primarily due to a lack of information regarding available services, rather than a lack of financial resources. This further highlights the need for enhanced awareness surrounding mental health disorders as well as resources available.

Finally, due to increased demand for mental health services at a distance due to the COVID-19 pandemic, tele-mental health initiatives may offer a viable route for vulnerable groups in Lebanon, particularly where services are stretched thin, and this could prove cost-effective and flexible to changing contexts. Despite concerns over security of sensitive information, data protection and privacy for vulnerable populations, and infrastructure barriers (electricity and internet access), such an approach could help alleviate the burden of a system overloaded by a dramatic increase in mental health needs.

As for disaster trauma-specific policies, government policies are generally required to set the aims and objectives for psychosocial and mental healthcare responses in disasters. They should use evidence-based strategies to lay out the basic architecture of care. In addition, proper clinical policies should be set in place for healthcare staff on proper screening.

Models of disaster psychology are shifting towards preventive psychological measures for better preparedness prior to disasters. , It is critical that Lebanon have prospective plans for providing psychosocial and mental healthcare in the event of a disaster, taking into consideration the immediate, and more long-term phases after disasters. The lack of these kinds of policies greatly delays proper psychological care.

In preemptive planning, it is important in shaping policies to keep in mind that every phase after a disaster has a specific set of necessary targets. During the immediate phase, preliminary assessment of psychological needs, determining of populations most at risk, and psychological first aid (PFA) are recommended. PFA involves evidence-informed measures to comfort victims of disasters and reduce future development of mental health disorders. This can be through seeking out individuals at risk, providing safety and comfort, stabilizing overwhelmed patients, providing information on coping, and linking them to appropriate services should the need arise. This service can be administered by non-trained professionals such as first responders or emergency rooms. This process must also provide support to health care practitioners affected and under immense duress.

Ahead of time, the mapping of existing services, and the establishment of networks for efficient collaboration between different actors, remains essential. At this stage, it is crucial to have identified which groups are most vulnerable to poor mental health reactions to trauma. These have been identified in the literature as women, children, the elderly, the physically disabled, ethnic minorities, and displaced populations, as well as first responders and individuals from low socio-economic status, or suffering from substance-use like smoking, loss of economic livelihood, poor social support, and weak family support This ensures that marginalized communities such as migrant workers and refugees are given appropriate care via outreach to their respective community centers. In the medium phases of recovery, proper policies should be in place for primary care services to be educated on appropriate screening and treatment of post-traumatic health disorders and reactions. In the long term, a minority of individuals will develop long-term mental health disorders such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other mood disorders such as anxiety and depression. It is essential not to remove funding or prematurely terminate trauma policies. Chronic psychiatric disorders require appropriate maintenance for years after trauma. As made evident by the Beirut port explosion, Lebanon is no longer operating in the preemptive planning stage. Instead, the country must simultaneously plan for the future by installing effective psychological disaster preparedness tools as discussed above, and focus on diagnosis and treatment of long-term, trauma-induced mental health conditions to pull itself out of the current crisis. True and substantive reform can only be realized through this double-pronged approach.

More research and accounts should be made available on what psychosocial strategies have worked and which have failed in Lebanon to better inform this decision. What is available in the literature should be tailored to what would be culturally sensitive to Lebanon.

With the advent of the 2019 revolution, several dimensions of the Lebanese system (i.e. political, economic, etc.). have been challenged in unprecedented ways. However, the essential role that mental health plays in leading to social and political change cannot be ignored. Reforming mental health infrastructure eases suffering and allows communities to thrive by equipping them to make economic, political, and social choices that prioritize their own welfare. In the Lebanese context, ensuring a healthy, collective mental health is and will remain essential in furthering the goals of the revolution to every facet of life and establishing a functioning and just State.

Makdisi, Samir, and Marktanner, Marcus. "Trapped by consociationalism: The case of Lebanon." Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 11, 2009.; Habib, Camille. "Lebanese Politics and the Tyrany of Confessionalism." - Cairn.info. N.p., 2009. Web. 23 April. 2016.; Clark, Janine A., and Bassel F. Salloukh. "Elite strategies, civil society, and sectarian identities in postwar Lebanon." International Journal of Middle East Studies 45(4) 731-749, 2013; Bustikova, Lenka, and Cristina Corduneanu-Huci. "Patronage, trust, and state capacity: The historical trajectories of clientelism." World Politics, 69(2), 277-326, 2017; Cammett, Melani, and Edmund Malesky. "Power sharing in postconflict societies: Implications for peace and governance." Journal of Conflict Resolution, 56(6), 982-1016, 2012; Cammett, Melani. "Sectarianism and the Ambiguities of Welfare in Lebanon." Current Anthropology 56.S11 (2015): S76-S87.; Auyero, Javier. "The logic of clientelism in Argentina: An ethnographic account." Latin American research review, 55-81, 2000.

The views represented in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Arab Reform Initiative, its staff, or its board.

Original post:

Mental Health Reforms in Lebanon During the Multifaceted Crisis -

Among the big surprises this year has been the huge spike in global prices of fossil fuels as the favored renewables wind and solar continue to produce intermittent, unstable, even declining output.

These news headlines last week look like the papers are describing some Third World countries and not UK and Europe: British Steel warns of up to 50-fold increase in power prices (Financial Times, Sept. 21), Energy price rises: Dozens of firms will be left to collapse (The Times, Sept. 21), Absolutely no question of lights going out this winter over hike in energy prices, cabinet minister says (The Independent, Sept. 21), Europes energy crisis: A switch back to coal is on the cards (The National, Sept. 24), Starved of Gas, European Electricity Producers Snap Up Coal (Bloomberg, Sept. 25).

HUGE SPIKE IN FOSSIL FUEL ENERGY PRICESI checked commodity prices as of the end of last week, Sept. 24. Aside from lithium used mainly for batteries in cell phones, laptops, and electric vehicles and soda ash, the fossil fuels coal, natural gas, and propane have had very high rises in prices year to date (YTD) or from Jan. 1 to Sept. 24.

For a price index, despite the huge spike in EUs carbon permits that are supposed to favor wind and solar energy and penalize fossil fuel energy, wind and solar are not attractive as they suffered price contractions (see Table 1).

INDEFINITE LOCKDOWN, POWER DEMAND, AND GDP PROJECTIONThe Philippines GDP size (at constant 2018 prices) in 2020 was P17.5 trillion, lower than 2019s P19.38 trillion and 2018s P18.2 trillion, and nearly touched 2017s P17.3 trillion. That is the impact of government lockdown and -9.6% GDP contraction.

This year, the quarterly GDP performance were -3.9% in the first quarter (Q1), and 11.8% growth in Q2 mainly because of the very low base in Q2 of 2020.

I made my own projection for Q3 this year based on electricity demand which is sensitive or responsive to government lockdown policies. I included data on electricity prices like the customers Effective Spot Settlement Price (ESSP) and producers Load Weighted Average Price (LWAP).

From the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) data, power demand grew 6.6% in the first half of 2021, GDP growth over the same period was 7.9%, again due to very low base in Q2 last year. Power demand growth in Q3 decelerated to only 1% because of ECQ-MECQ in August and the equivalent level 4 restrictions in September. The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) will officially release GDP figures for Q3 2021 in the first week of November, but from initial power data and also low base in Q3 2020, my estimate is 4%-5% growth in the next quarter.

ERC FAVORITISM OF NGCP MONOPOLYConsider these three reports last week involving the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC):

Power providers gave back almost P20 billion to consumers ERC (BusinessWorld, Sept. 23).

P16-M fine imposed vs. 8 GenCos over violations; wont be passed on to consumers (PDI, Sept. 23).

Stop Collection of Congestion Charges in Panay and Negros ERC (Energy Regulatory Commission press release, Sept. 22).

Decentralized distribution utilities (DUs) and electric cooperatives which have been technically demonopolized via retail competition and open access (RCOA) provision of the EPIRA law are penalized by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC).

Decentralized, demonopolized and competitive power generation sector is also penalized by the ERC.

The national monopoly, zero competition National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), with many delays and unfinished work in transmission nationwide, is not penalized and is even shielded by the ERC.

Cute investigator ERC, that regularly harasses decentralized power generation and distribution sectors, should be investigated by Congress for its consistent shielding of the only remaining national monopoly in the country, the NGCP.

HYDRO POWER RECOVERYThe share of hydro power (big and run-of-river) to total power generation this year in the Luzon-Visayas grids has been rising due to the rainy season. From only 3.3% of the total last May, it went up to 4.4% in July and 7.7% in August.

The current double-dip La Nia that started around September 2020 is projected to continue until about April 2022, said US NCEP-CPC-NOAA projections as of Sept. 25. See also La Nia: Globe Expected to Continue Cooling into Next Year, Extending Cooling Streak To 7 Years (No Tricks Zone, Sept. 24, 2021).

Last weekend, my family visited Villa Escudero in Tiaong, Quezon. Its small dam or weir created a lake upstream for bamboo rafting/tourism and fishery, and a 70-kw hydroelectric plant. The weir was built in 1872 for irrigation. Fast forward today, it achieves four useful socio-economic goals with that single project power generation, tourism, irrigation, and fishery.

The Departments of Energy and Tourism should jointly promote nationwide small but many dams or weirs of the Villa Escudero style. Our problem in the tropics is not lack of water but too much water, too much flooding during the rainy season. That excess water should be stored in many impounding lakes and rivers and, in the process, create more indigenous power generation, irrigation, eco-tourism, and fishery.

Bienvenido S. Oplas, Jr. is the Director for Communication and Corporate Affairs, Alas Oplas & Co. CPAs,

nonoyoplas@alasoplascpas.com

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Energy prices, GDP projections, the ERC, and hydro development - BusinessWorld Online