Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

image:The invention of bit and bridle eventually led to the evolution of armed mounted warriors like the one depicted in an Assyrian relief from 8th century BCE. view more

Credit: Created: 5 June 2010 by Ealdgyth britishmuseumassyrianrelieftwohorsemennimrud.jpg

[Vienna, Oct 20, 2021] Peter Turchin from the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) and an interdisciplinary team of colleagues set out to test competing theories about what drove the evolution of war machines throughout world history. Their study, published today in the journal PLOS ONE, sees the strongest influence on the evolution of military technology coming from world population size, the connectivity between geographical areas, and advances in critical technologies such as iron metallurgy or horse riding. Conversely, and somewhat surprisingly, state-level factors such as the size of the population, the territory, or the complexity of governance seem not to have played a major role.

Using Big Data for historical questions

We had two goals for this study, principal investigator Peter Turchin points out. First, we wanted to draw a clear picture of where and when military technologies appeared in pre-industrial societies. Second, we intended to find out why important technologies were developed or adopted in certain places.

For their analyses, the researchers used Seshat: Global History Databank, a large and constantly growing collection of historical and archaeological data from across the globe. To date, Seshat has assembled around 200,000 entries from more than 500 societies, spanning 10,000 years of human history.

Seshat is a goldmine for the study of cultural evolution, says Turchin, who initiated and further developed the database together with a team of anthropologists, historians, archaeologists, mathematicians, computer scientists, and evolutionary scientists. To explore this data, the authors applied innovative quantitative methods of mathematical modeling and statistical analysis.

Bit and bridle led to mega-empires

Some military inventions had cascading effects on cultural and social evolution, explains Turchin, who conducted the data analyses in this study. The invention of bit and bridle, for instance, made it easier to control horses, which led to advances in weapons or the appearance of mounted archers and knights, which again made it necessary to build better fortifications. According to our study, this bundle of military technologies was one of the most important factors leading to the rise of mega-empires and of world religions like Christianity, Buddhism, and Islam during the first millennium BCE.

Turchin and colleagues define a mega-empire as a society supporting tens of millions of inhabitants and covering millions of square kilometers of territory, which they say began to appear in different parts of Europe and Asia as part of a process of growing social complexity driven by the connection and competition between states with increasingly advanced and dangerous technology.

The scientists also found strong signs of the importance of agricultural productivity. A certain level of food production may have been necessary for the subsequent development of new war technologies, says co-author Dan Hoyer, who leads and organizes Seshat data collection. To explore the role of agriculture for the evolution of military technology in more detail would be an interesting next research step.

Questions from the past for our future

Seshat was developed to distinguish cause and effect in theories of social evolution.

Good data and methods like the ones we developed here offer a fresh perspective on a multitude of open questions, theories, and controversies in various fields, ranging from archaeology, to history, to the social sciences, emphasizes Turchin. Furthermore, studies like this can contribute to a general understanding of what makes a society thrive or how to recognize early signs of deterioration and societal collapse.

A fundamental understanding of social dynamics is not only of academic interest, says Turchin who works with a team at CSH on Social Complexity and Collapse. To understand what leads to social transformation, and being able to identify the tipping points that lead to either resilience or catastrophe, is crucial for all of us, especially today, he concludes.

Resources:

Peter Turchin, Daniel Hoyer, Andrey Korotayev, Nikolay Kradin, Sergey Nefedov, Gary Feinman, Jill Levine, Jenny Reddish, Enrico Cioni, Chelsea Thorpe, James S. Bennett, Pieter Francois, Harvey Whitehouse, Rise of the War Machines: Charting the Evolution of Military Technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution, PLOS ONE (Oct 20) 2021 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0258161

Seshat: Global History Databank

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About the Complexity Science Hub Vienna

The mission of CSH Vienna is to host, educate, and inspire complex systems scientists dedicated to making sense of Big Data to boost science and society. Scientists at the CSH develop methods for the scientific, quantitative, and predictive understanding of complex systems. Focal areas include the resilience and efficiency of socio-economic and ecological systems, network medicine, the dynamics of innovation, and the science of cities.

The Hub is a joint initiative of AIT Austrian Institute of Technology, Central European University CEU, Danube University Krems, Graz University of Technology, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IMBA, Medical University of Vienna, TU Wien, VetMedUni Vienna, Vienna University of Economics and Business, and Austrian Economic Chambers (WKO). http://www.csh.ac.at

Data/statistical analysis

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Rise of the War Machines: Charting the Evolution of Military Technologies from the Neolithic to the Industrial Revolution

20-Oct-2021

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What drove the invention of military technologies? - EurekAlert

The appointment of special envoys to engage with the kingdom of Eswatini by President Cyril Ramaphosa, the chair of the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) organ on defence, politics, security and co-operation, has been criticised in some quarters as a procrastinated and politically indecisive step.

The envoys are expected to meet the under-siege King Mswati III on security and political developments in the kingdom. As this announcement was made, prodemocracy protests gained traction in the landlocked monarchy, with schools remaining closed indefinitely and reports of police shooting down protesters in clashes. This has resulted in an official death toll of 28 since the unrest began. MPs Bacede Mabuza and Mthandeni Dube, detained during prodemocracy protests earlier in 2021, are in police custody.

Internet and social media access remain frequently blocked, reportedly at the instruction of the kings eldest daughter, princess Sikhanyiso Dlamini, who doubles up as the countrys minister of information and communication technology.

The envoys will be entering a territory where the absolute monarch has, for decades, ignored calls and pressure for transformation into a modern democracy. As history would record, this is not the first attempt by the Sadc to visit the king in Eswatini.

Earlier this year in July, the regional bodys troika delegation comprising SAs Naledi Pandor, Botswanas Lemogang Kwape and Zimbabwes Frederick Shava, visited Eswatini in an effort that will go down in history as wasteful and useless.

At the time, the ANC, through the chair of itsinternational relations subcommittee, Lindiwe Zulu, called on the Eswatini government to work towards the normalisation of the political environment. It asked for the unbanning of opposition political parties, the release of political activists and a meaningful dialogue with opposition parties, its citizens, and trade unions. This was done to find a collective solution to the socio-economic circumstances in the country.

The party further called on the government of Eswatini to urgently move away from autocracy, strong-handed crisis management, and brutal repression of legitimate civilian concerns.

With the hope that the envoy has drawn some lessons from the troika in July, the latest developments in Eswatini require new tactics if the volatile situation is to be dealt with. Whereas the statement by Ramaphosa exclusively referred to the special envoys going to engage with Mswati III only, it will be futile to exclude political, civic and labour movement stakeholders in any peace-seeking endeavour. The Sadc must change its diplomatic approach to the political situation in Eswatini.

Illegal and banned as they may be, the Sadc cannot afford to repeatedly ignore the likes of the Swaziland Solidarity Network, the opposition Peoples United Democratic Movement, the Swaziland Federation of Trade Unions, the EFF of Swaziland, and the Communist Party of Swaziland, among others.

It would also be unimaginable to expect illegal formations to sit at the same table with the ruling establishment and negotiate as equals. Therefore, in creating a conducive political climate, Mswati must unban all political parties and organisations before the negotiations can even begin. Any other approach which seeks to undermine the agents responsible for the current shutdown will be nave and time-wasting.

Although the trend at the Sadc and, by extension, the AU, has been for incumbents to cushion dictators and tyrants in the name of non-interference, options appear to be very minimal for these bodies in Eswatini. Civil society organisations in Eswatini have already started alleging unconfirmed reports of the presence of mercenaries from a Western African states government that are attacking locals. This, albeit unsubstantiated, would never bring about sustainable peace in that country.

SA has endured the consequences of quiet diplomacy following its handling of the Zimbabwe and Lesotho political disputes in the past. While a lot is always expected from it, Pretorias management of diplomatic deployments has been found wanting in the aforementioned instances.

Opting for former president Thabo Mbekis quiet diplomacy in Zimbabwe after the late president Robert Mugabe had lost elections, SA had to contend with the influx of undocumented Zimbabweans who illegally crossed the border following the economic collapse emanating from electoral fraud monkeyshines.

Similarly, former president Jacob Zumas soft glove treatment of Lesothos former leader Tom Thabane despite his dwindling political control, led to Basothos influx into SA as the mountain kingdom suffered severe economic repercussions for its political mismanagement.

Such outcomes show that it is always in the interest of SA to ensure that its neighbours are politically stable. Therefore, when an opportunity presents itself for SA to contribute to the stabilisation of its neighbour, it must be seized immediately. It should not take weeks (as it has in this case) before both SA and the Sadc issue a statement concerning the dire situation in Eswatini.

It was even worse when it was reported that the delay of the statement was caused by semantic differences. SA will pay the highest cost if the situation in Eswatini is allowed to continue for another day. Equally, it is high time for the Sadc and the AU to be proactive whenever human rights, peace and stability are at risk. It is common knowledge that Eswatini has been trampling on its locals human rights for decades. Yet, no resolution has ever been taken at the AU or Sadc condemning such practices. Nor have any sanctions been imposed on the monarchy.

It is worse for SA, whose foreign policy is based on democracy, respect for human rights and social justice. It is to be expected that the geopolitics of the SADC region should be benefitting from this noble principle and commitment.

Yet, the country of Nelson Mandela prefers to let the Eswatini rulers enjoy an uninterrupted reign. The people of Eswatini would not be asking for too much by expecting SA to exercise its foreign policy, which is based on respect for human rights. It does not even have to utilise its economic hegemony disguised as soft power diplomacy. But if necessary, SA should push Eswatini to align with acceptable norms and standards. Otherwise, the tenets of its foreign policy are being seriously undermined without any consequences for the transgressors in this instance Eswatini.

The ball is therefore in the hands of SA as an individual state, but also as a leading member of the Sadc, to ensure that Mswati is held to account for human rights violations and his unchallenged iron fist rule. It can only be a people who want to be led like their predecessors who would not opt for the decisive action taken by Eswatini nationals.

Their actions should have made a sufficient and adequate call for intervention. It cannot be that such an outcry is continuously ignored by leaders who claim to care and respect the rule of law, democracy and liberty. After all, the reported tyranny in Eswatini was bound to come to an end.

The hour of truth has come in Eswatini and change must be allowed to happen. No person can rule over a people forever in a manner they are not comfortable with. It is a cul de sac for both Mswati and the Sadc. Jamaican reggae legend and global icon Bob Marley sings: If every day the bucket goes to the well (to fetch water), one day the bottom will drop out.

It appears the bottom has dropped out for the people of Eswatini.

Mpho Tsedu is head of an independent public policy think-tank, the Institute of Foreign Affairs

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MPHO TSEDU: If the Sadc fails to condemn Mswati, it has no reason to exist - Business Day

An International Convention in the Vatican proposes to shine the light on the antidotes to fight injustice, inequality and exclusion in a post-pandemic era, and according to the teachings of Pope Francis, build a better world.

By Linda Bordoni

World-class figures in the fields of science, ecology, education, and economy as well as religious leaders are meeting in the Vatican for a three-day Convention that aims to highlight and define a path upon which to build a better world.

Solidarity, Cooperation and Responsibility are the values that have been singled out by the Centesimus Annus Pontifical Foundation to guide us on the way out of so many global pandemics: poverty, injustice, inequality and wars.

Taking place on 21 and 22 October in the New Synod Hall, keynote speakers include, amongst others, Nobel Physics laureate Grard Mourou, CERN Director Fabiola Gianotti, the European Commissioner for Reform and Cohesion Elisa Ferreira, cognitive neuroscientist and literacy advocate, Maryanne Wolf.

Top Vatican prelates, Vatican Secretary of State Archbishop Paul Gallagher and Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle are also giving interventions during the event.

The International Conference, held during the delicate post-pandemic time, coincides with the 30th anniversary of Pope John Paul IIs encyclical, Centesimus Annus, that came on the heels of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

In that encyclical, St. John Paul II noted that Man fulfills himself by using his intelligence and freedom. In so doing he utilizes the things of this world as objects and instruments and makes them his own. But at the same time, he stated It is not wrong to want to live better; what is wrong is a style of life which is presumed to be better when it is directed towards "having" rather than "being".

In the communiqu announcing the conference, organizers explain that Pope Francis encyclicals Laudato s, Fratelli tutti and Caritas in Veritate are precious tools to help us make the community in which we live more just if only we are prepared to address health, ecological and socio-economic emergencies with the full awareness of the need to anchor our actions in the values of solidarity, cooperation and the sense of responsibility.

We must seize the opportunity of the post-pandemic rebuilding process to build back better with discernment, determination, and clarity of thought and action, the communiqu reads, reminding us that Pope Francis invites us not to return to the past but to build a new world through a process of regeneration.

So, Convention organizers ask: What kind of a world should we be aiming for?

According to Pope Francis, the process of regeneration must begin from man, from responsible behaviors that are conducive to the common good and are guided by solidarity, charity and truth.

On the basis of the teachings of these encyclicals, and continuing in the wake of previous International Conferences, the event aims to address the perennial problems of injustice, inequality and exclusion in the light of three antidotes at our disposal: solidarity, cooperation and responsibility, all of which need to permeate and direct educational models, governance, business models and lifestyle.

But more importantly, the communiqu concludes, the Pope invites us to be fully aware of our personal responsibility, of the need to respect our own and others dignity, and to live this responsibility in our daily actions in a spirit of solidarity and cooperation because this is how we can make community life more just.

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Vatican Conference to spotlight post-pandemic regeneration - Vatican News

BY OBARO JOHNSON

About a year after the violent eruption and brutal suppression of the #EndSARS protests in Nigeria, debates have lingered, probing its basis, impact, quelling and lessons, if any. The nation has continued to enjoy graveyard peace, while the generation of young people responsible for and most affected by the events culminating in, and emanating from the watershed mass action that shook Nigeria to its core in October 2020, continue to seethe.

The #EndSARS protest was like most spontaneous mass outbursts of pent-up anger, sparked by a feeling of humiliating helplessness in the face of state-sponsored or encouraged injustices and dehumanisation as perceived by citizens.

There have been comparisons between the #EndSARS protests of October 2020, with the Lekki tollgate as its historical melting point, and the students protest and bloody crackdown of June 1989, in Tiananmen Square, Beijing, China. Both protests were spearheaded by young people in defiance of state violence, spreading from city to city and attracting both local and international attention and sympathy in the build-up to a tragic end on the 20th of October, 2020 and the 4th of June, 1989 respectively. That is, perhaps, as far as the similarities go.

While the Chinese protests were in reaction to the natural death of a 73-year-old politician and premised on populist angst against political corruption, nepotism and economic mismanagement of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the protests in Nigeria, though later expanded in scope to include demands for good governance and accountability, was initially an eruption of accumulated frustration and anger against police brutality and oppression of the Nigerian youth, with now-defunct Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) as an epitome of state violence against a hapless citizenry, particularly the viral recording of a murdered youth thrown out of a moving vehicle by alleged policemen in Ughelli, Delta State.

Though police brutality and armed oppression of the Nigerian populace by state actors have always been commonplace in the socio-political and economic milieu of Nigeria, the sadistic brutality and extra-judicial killings of Nigerians, especially youths by the dreaded SARS, brought to the fore the underlying tension and yawning disconnect between the Nigerian state and what should be its most valued asset the youth. The rancorous, disorganised and thieving antics of some youths during the #EndSARS protests clearly mirrored all that ails the Nigerian society and the violent response by the state suggested a continuing cluelessness as regards the role of social justice in entrenching order in any given society and particularly, in a democracy.

Since independence, the Nigerian state and its handlers, both military and democratic, have continued to emasculate progressive ideas, preferring Quick Fixes in addressing pressing socio-economic and political concerns. The enthronement of political corruption, economic profiteering, nepotism, fiscal irresponsibility and financial recklessness by successive governments have over time created a highly competitive and primitive order where Dog eats Dog and individual aggrandisement is elevated over and above the collective wellbeing. As the individual continues to have his way in this skewed arrangement, institutions become weaker, moral values are discarded and self-help is embraced as a potent, last resort for the pursuit of personal gain, with little or no consideration for the common good. As values erode and the rule of might is right is reinforced in all facets of the Nigerian society, the crazed race for money and power intensifies, giving rise to crime and criminality, escalating moral decadence and society as stripped of its most vital covering, conscience.

It is against this cataclysmic backdrop that the Soro Soke (speak up) generation of young Nigerians is birthed. Disillusioned by the state of rot, but not unwilling to benefit from same, this Nigerian youth is a case study in the war of attrition between conscience and convenience, torn between the innate desire to live up to his/her highest ideals and potentials, and a socio-economic order that entices one to cut corners and become an accomplice to the very monster that assails society. The Nigerian youth is by default programmed to survive. Though highly creative and resilient, many youths have found solace in social vices as a means to escape the crude realities that society daily foists on them. Whilst many have found a way to make the best of a bad situation by embracing entrepreneurship and other forms of gainful employment, a great many have also settled for a life of crime, drug abuse and sundry vices.

The #EndSARS protest was, in essence, a generational agitation to draw societys attention to the bleakness of its future in the face of a nations unwillingness to tell itself the truth. The deteriorating standard of life in Nigeria coupled with illiteracy/semi-literacy, unemployment, corruption, infrastructural and general decadence merely indicates an imminent social collapse which, if not swiftly and dispassionately tackled, will spell doom for our beloved country.

Another lesson emanating from the #EndSARS protest is the need for value re-orientation of Nigerians. The violence that escalated and wanton looting recorded during the protests shows clearly that many youths were totally unconcerned with the ideological essence or implication of the protests, but were solely motivated by the same primitive greed that drives public office holders and the Privilegentsia to mindlessly loot our common patrimony. The successful attempt by divisive elements to paint the protest as a southern assault aimed at bringing down a northern- dominated government, as evidenced in the violent clashes between #EndSARS protesters and the largely northern pro-government youths in Abuja, also accentuates one of the many primordial cleavages that come in handy to break cohesion and derail popular struggle.

Though cosmetic attempts have been made to institute reforms in law enforcement and policing, there is little evidence to show that much has changed since October of last year. The recommendations of commissions of inquiry into the #EndSARS protests by different state governments, though a welcome development, lacks the power to bite. The monetary compensation for victims still falls short of the standard of natural justice as many are still aggrieved, with alleged offenders still retaining both their jobs and freedom.

For now, the judgment day appears to have been postponed and we enjoy a violently negotiated peace. But for how long?

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'Soro Soke': A restive generation in a volatile nation - TheCable

Shihab Sarkar | Published: October 21, 2021 20:29:34

Human species is revolutionary by birth. He is a born rebel. Since his earliest stage, he has been demonstrating the trait to express his dissatisfaction with the prevailing state he is in. It has seemingly made him superior to all his contemporaries. This unique progress from one stage to another has defined his long journey. Man has never felt comfortable either on being left alone. All along his march which began several thousand years ago, man has continued to be part of a community larger than the previous one. It is an ever expanding camaraderie which has defined his unique place on this earth. As part of a historical process, the spirit of helping the camaraderie alive became a part of human dialectics. Man's love for organised revolutions, thus, began taking root.

Man may not have come to this stage of progress without non-stop pushes coming from revolutions one after another. To put it briefly, human history is replete with the urges for change. In popular parlance, these very trends prompt revolutions. An irony also remains at work. It focuses on some people who resist all kinds of change. As part of the dictates of history, changes are anathema to large sections of people in every stage of human progresses. These forces purely represent retrogression. Social segments belonging to this category in society, or in the broader spheres of a nation, have always loved to remain stuck in the monolith of aversion for change. The invisible gusts of change have, however, swept the agents of sloth away. Those keep growing alongside the forces that bring about social changes.

Human beings are unique in this universe. That they want to see changes occur in every phase of history also demonstrates this uniqueness. Why particular groups in society call upon others to join a revolution? The reason lies in the mundane desire to live in happiness. Helping a popular uprising occur has hardly been prompted by unfulfilled aesthetic or transcendental quest. These areas have little links to revolutionary spasms. The disciplines of aesthetics, philosophy or different branches of science have their distinctive ways of choosing newer paths. Once a theory of physics or a particular music notational evolution has been proven authentic and dependable, there are few scopes for rejecting them outright. However, there have been occasions when they undergo phases of evolutions. Isaac Newton's Law of Universal Gravitation and Albert Einstein' Theory of Relativity are expected to remain unchanged as long as this solar system remains in place. So are the cases for the compositions of Mozart, Beethoven or Bach. In a way, these compositions have attained the status of being completely unchangeable. Only a moron can think of altering or punching his own lines into Hamlet's long soliloquy. But in contrast, the means of a traditional socio-economic revolution has been witness to changes in forms. In most cases they couldn't achieve the desired goals without conflicts and bloodshed.

The coarse demands that man remain well fed and properly clothed, and have secure shelters, have been the sparks of revolution for ages. Along with the fulfilment of these prerequisites, it was also the strong human urge for freedom which had led to revolutions in different times. The first such rebellion is presumed to have occurred in Rome between 73-71 (BCE). It was called by the heroic gladiator Spartacus, a slave. That's why the revolt is also known as Spartacus Revolt. Dozens of rebellions and acts of revolt followed in the next centuries. Notable of them were the American Revolution that took place between 1765 and 1791 on today's US soil. It was followed by the world's first ever blood-smirched rebellion against the French royals and nobility by the plebeians. The French Revolution took place for almost a decade from 1789 to 1799. Regional rebellions followed in the world's colonised regions.

The mutiny that took place in the British empire-ruled colony of the Indian sub-continent against the imperial army stands out with its unflinching resolve. The rebellious Indian soldiers lagged behind the British colonial army in terms of military strength. But they were blessed by the solidarity they had developed between the peoples living throughout the length and breadth of the colonised India. The Indian mutinous soldiers miserably lacked the enemy's firepower, which led to their crumbling down in a short time. The Sepoy Mutiny may have failed, but in the annals of history of revolutions it was capable of carving out a distinctive place.

Unlike the revolutions organised in Russia, China, and replicated in many parts of the globe for creating a classless society, the earlier rebellions were free of set guidelines or dogma. Despite being fired by the urge to create an egalitarian society, the French Revolution didn't follow any 'guide book' delineating the dos and don'ts of a revolution. What they kept looking to was the writings of Voltaire, Rousseau et al. A so-called revolutionary spontaneity pervaded the globally watershed event.

The 1917 Bolshevik Revolution in Russia and, much later, those in Cuba and a number of Latin American countries in the late 1950s to `60s were kept bound by the tenets highlighted by Karl Marx. Although the founder of the Russian socialism --- Vladimir Lenin --- followed the Marxist theory verbatim, he is also said to have improvised it at places suiting local needs. The people of the former Soviet Union led and guided by great Marxists like Lenin, Stalin, Trotsky and many others have enjoyed the fruits of revolution in their humble ways. That the vast country with its rigid style of rule would crumble one day had, however, been a foregone conclusion. After all leaders are humans with all their virtues and shortcomings. The alleged excesses indulged in by the administrative honchos coupled with the creation of an oligarchic class and the highly exclusive pockets hastened the downfall of the Marxist state. Moreover, the ordinary people's disillusionment with empty shelves at collective shops and midnight knocks at the door, the dread of Siberian labour camps etc sapped out the giant state's inherent strength. The last nail was driven by its implacable rivalry with the USA. Despite the signs of a workable detente following seemingly endless peace offensives on the part of the two powers, the 70-year-old communist giant continued to weaken economically and socially to finally collapse in 1991. Surprisingly, China, the lone communist giant in the present world remained cautious from the very beginning.

Despite following Marxism, China called its system a home-grown one. Its supreme leader Mao Zedong and the others haven't followed the Russian path. After the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, the communist China didn't forget its agricultural past. Only in the recent years in the 21st century, it entered the age of space expeditions. Revolutions' historical processes have not undergone much change. The 'world shaking' revolutions occurring in the 20th century were not supposed to falter noticeably. Whether they were able to offer the fruits of revolution to their peoples for a longer time or they failed miserably --- or they were compelled to make theoretical corrections to provide revolution with a solid ground is a different discourse. The vital point is humans have felt the need for changing society. As a sequel, the pre-Christ world first saw the acts of sporadic rebellions and, finally, all-out revolutions in the 18th century.

Revolutions have many flipsides. The longing for remaining content in material life hardly dies. One may not agree with Lenin, Mao, Ho, Castro or Che Guevara and their ways of bringing change to society, but few will allow others to belittle these heroes' dreams.

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Revolutions in the 21st century perspective - The Financial Express

The socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 are devastating communities in the Pacific and Timor-Leste as much as the virus itself, and sometimes to an even greater extent.

World Vision surveyed 752 households (with an average of six people per household) in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste and Vanuatu in late 2020 to better understand the secondary impacts of the pandemic at the community level. The sample size was relatively small (because the survey was done in an emergency context under government restrictions), but still the results provide a valuable insight into the deep and sometimes unexpected knock-on effects of COVID-19 in the region.

Unsurprisingly, loss of livelihoodswas the number one concern for the households surveyed. Almost 60% of respondents had either lost their job, lost income, or resorted to alternative sources of income due to the economic impacts of the pandemic.The top five reasons cited by households for this loss of income were reduced demand for goods/services (29%), closed markets (20%), lack of access to livelihood inputs such as seeds and materials (18%), movement restrictions (15%), and transport limitations (10%).

These disruptions are crippling the same industries that are the traditional drivers of Pacific economies tourism, agriculture, small- and medium-sized business and money sent home by seasonal workers. Street vendors and farmers have been the hardest hit, with 56% of vendors and 55% of agriculture and livestock workers saying their work was fully or severely affected by the pandemic in the two weeks before the survey.

Extent of COVID-19 impacts on livelihoods in the past fortnight (2020)

This data is consistent with concerns raised by the Lowy Institute that the Pacific has been particularly battered by the economic fallout of COVID-19 and that it could face a potential lost decade of economic progress as a result. On current projections, average income per person in the Pacific will not recover to 2019 levels until 2028 unless a multi-year recovery package is urgently adopted.

Loss of livelihoods isnt just affecting consumer activity; it is having significant ripple effects across Pacific societies. The Pacific Aftershocks survey revealed the cruel choices families are forced to make as their incomes collapse, with households resorting to selling assets and even skipping meals to cope:

With tourism expected to be one of the last sectors to recover from the pandemic, there is a real risk that the Pacific could face its own version of long COVID a protracted, slow climb back to economic normality over the next decade, during which the socio-economic impacts above could become a type of new normal. But this doesnt have to be the case.

In the short-term (during the next six months), work is needed to urgently scale up social protection measures (such as cash and voucher assistance and, where this is not possible, food assistance) to help poor families with disrupted incomes meet their immediate needs. In many contexts across the Pacific region, assistance in the form of cash and vouchers minimises the distortion to markets while ensuring families do not resort to negative coping mechanisms such as eating less or forcing their children to work.

To build back better in the medium and longer-term (the next one to five years), a suite of initiatives should be deployed to stimulate the Pacific economy and rebuild livelihoods. This could include improving access to finance for small businesses, strengthening market systems so they work better for the poor, investing in womens economic empowerment, and restoring environments through low-cost regenerative agriculture. As a mechanism to coordinate and drive this work, it is recommended all national and donor governments in the Pacific region, including Australia, work together to develop an Economic Recovery Compact a roadmap to rebuild the regional economy in a way that leaves no one behind. By rebuilding livelihoods, starting at the bottom of the economic pyramid, donor and national governments can increase productive capacity, broaden the consumer base, and build resilience across the market system, all while supporting those who need it most.

Just as regional governments worked together to establish the Pacific Humanitarian Pathway on COVID-19, the region should again coalesce around the longer-term recovery effort because a regional crisis like this requires a regional response.

For more information, see World Visions report Pacific Aftershocks: Unmasking the impact of COVID-19 on lives and livelihoods in the Pacific and Timor-Leste.

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Human cost of the Pacific's COVID-19 recession - devpolicy.org

Geneva The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is appealing for USD 158.9 million to respond to the urgent humanitarian needs of millions of Afghans and to support recovery and resilience within the country and the region.

The crisis unfolding in Afghanistan is intensifying humanitarian needs and increasing displacement risks both inside the country, as well as across borders to countries in the region, said Antnio Vitorino, IOM Director General.

The Afghan population, already burdened by decades of conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic, subsequent economic downturn, and a severe drought, is in dire need of support.

IOMs Comprehensive Action Plan for Afghanistan and Neighbouring Countries aims to help the most vulnerable populations by combining humanitarian, development and peace interventions, known as the HDP nexus.

While current population movements across borders are moderate, the risk of economic collapse and further deterioration of the socio-economic and security situation in Afghanistan cannot be ruled out, which might lead to more people leaving for countries in the region such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

There are now an estimated 5.5 million Internally Displaced Persons in Afghanistan (IDPs), including those living in protracted situations, and 664,000 newly displaced by conflict in 2021. This is in addition to more than 924,744 undocumented Afghan returnees who returned from Iran and Pakistan between 1 January and the end of September, and the more than 2.2. million refugees and 3.5 million undocumented Afghan nationals already in neighboring countries, primarily Iran and Pakistan.

IOM is currently the largest provider of emergency shelter and non-food items in Afghanistan, delivering relief to more than 34,000 people recently displaced by conflict and natural disasters between 15 August and 30 September.

Health teams reached 11,347 people during the same six-week period with direct medical assistance, including 9,170 out-patient consultations, 1,357 reproductive health consultations, more than 820 psychosocial counselling sessions and COVID-19 screening for 394,600 travelers.

The Organization assisted 9,237 vulnerable undocumented migrants at or near border crossings and screened more than 1,360 returnees for protection concerns. Multi-sectoral, post-arrival assistance was provided to 630 persons with specific needs and nearly 20,000 people have benefitted from disaster risk reduction, as well as recovery, reintegration and resilience initiatives, since the beginning of the crisis.

On 1 September, IOMs Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) teams activated the Emergency Event Tracking (EET) tool in Afghanistan to monitor the displacement of individuals, as well as their level of access to services and assistance following episodes of drought and rapid political changes. This assessment covers all 34 provinces, 359 districts and 8,633 villages.

While governments in other countries prepare responses to the Afghan crisis, IOM's Comprehensive Action Plan is needed to help ensure that the regional impact of the crisis can be mitigated, the humanitarian and protection needs of Afghans can be met, and the resilience of host communities both in and out of Afghanistan can be strengthened for longer-term inclusive and sustainable development.

IOM will work closely with other UN agencies, governments, civil society and partners to coordinate the implementation of the plan.

IOMs Global Crisis Response Platform provides an overview of IOMs plans and funding requirements to respond to the evolving needs and aspirations of those impacted by, or at risk of, crisis and displacement in 2021 and beyond. The Platform is regularly updated as crises evolve, and new situations emerge.

For more information, please contact:

In Geneva: Paul Dillon, Managing Editor and Spokesperson, email: pdillon@iom.int, Tel: + 41 79 636 9874

*In Kabul: Safa Msehli, IOM Spokesperson, email: smsehli@iom.int *

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IOM Comprehensive Action Plan for Afghanistan and Neighbouring Countries - Afghanistan - ReliefWeb

Looking at the socio-economic blow South Africa was dealt by the Covid-19 pandemic - causing job losses and widespread devastation as well as exacerbating environmental issues - governments must ensure economic recovery plans are heavily geared toward the development of the green economy.

Janavi Da Silva, director of programmes at GreenMatter. | Source: Supplied.

Not only will this leave South Africa vulnerable to economic collapse in the event of future unforeseen disruptions (like pandemics), but it also does not serve the environmental goals of the country or the world at large.

A great deal of these challenges is the result of commercial activity such as the manufacturing of goods made from non-recyclable materials, resource inefficiency and a lack of strict policing on the disposal of harmful chemicals used in the production of some of the worlds most in-demand goods and services.

However, these challenges became even bigger issues as a result of the pandemic. While carbon emissions and water quality did see slight improvements in 2020 as a result of people being under lockdown and there being no cars on the road, the pandemic left other issues in its wake. For instance, medical waste in the form of discarded PPE gear has become an additional environmental challenge to contend with.

Job losses due to the Covid-19 outbreak have also been a major challenge facing the country, with South Africas unemployment rate reaching a record high of 34.4% in the second quarter of 2021 - an increase from 32.6% in the first quarter.

This in turn reduces carbon emissions, promotes resource efficiency and prevents biodiversity loss, all while pursuing economic growth that does not degrade the environment. The green economy also paves the way for more employment opportunities through the creation of green jobs.

Contrary to popular belief, these are not careers reserved for people who are considered activists or eco-warriors, but those who will advocate for the environment in their specific capacities and professional contexts. This could range from graduates in natural science fields to, for example, a law graduate focusing on environmental concerns.

It is for this reason that initiatives like the GreenMatter Fellowship exist. The programmes such as this are designed to equip graduates of all disciplines with the skills they need to succeed in the workplace, to advocate for the environment and to help sustainably manage our natural resources for the benefit of all South Africans for generations to come.

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Economic recovery from Covid-19 relies on green economy - Bizcommunity.com

The Pakistan-US relationship is one of the most consequential bilateral partnerships in the world. The state visit by Pakistans first PM Liaqat Ali Khan laid the foundation of a partnership that has weathered many storms but still managed to sail through the rough waters.

Despite having divergent approaches, successive Pakistani and American leaders have shown pragmatism to work together in an effort to iron out the differences to the mutual benefit of their countries. Two examples suffice.

First, our shared fight against communism remains the high point in our decades-old engagement. The collapse of communism fundamentally transformed the world order. Second, the US-Pakistan alliance was instrumental in largely destroying the infrastructure of terrorism. The neutralisation of transnational terror outfits such as Al-Qaeda, and IS, etc is the result of the joint coordination and strategy.

Among experts of international relations, there has been a tendency to describe these bilateral ties from a single lens of security and geo-strategy. This approach however misses other essential aspects of the relationship.

A sizable number of Pakistani-Americans provide a bridge between Pakistan and the US. Their contributions to the development of their adopted country are as significant as their share in shoring up Pakistans economy in the form of remittances.

The US continues to remain the preferred destination for Pakistani students. An admission to an American university is considered a passport for socio-economic mobility. The US runs one of the largest Fulbright programmes in Pakistan under which hundreds of brilliant Pakistani students have acquired quality education and are now making an important contribution to their home-country.

The power of American democracy and its ideals of liberty, respect for human rights and hard work being the basis of upward mobility remains unwavering. The American Dream inspires people.

President Joe Bidens election came as a sigh of relief for people in Pakistan. His strong advocacy for the revival of globalism, affirmative climate change actions and privileging peace over conflicts found a common cause with most Pakistanis. President Biden knows Pakistan more than any other US leader in recent memory. As the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and vice-president in the Obama administration, he worked very closely with Pakistan.

The Doha peace deal between the US and Taliban was the result of sustained efforts made by Pakistan to persuade the latter to initiate the dialogue with Washington. It is however in the context of the Taliban takeover that there has emerged a publicly stated difference of opinion.

While the bilateral relations seek to find their moorings and restore the balance, the core aspirations of both countries for Afghanistan remain the same. Both Islamabad and Washington agree that the Taliban should respect their commitments with regard to the formation of an inclusive government, and honour women and minorities rights; and that the Afghan soil should not be used for terrorism.

Pakistan is advocating global engagement with Afghanistan to help avert a humanitarian and economic crisis, warning the world community at the same time that disengagement will be catastrophic in terms of the threat of terrorism becoming real again and the deepening human tragedy.

The US, on the other hand, is acting upon the policy of wait and see before it can clarify its Afghanistan policy. Islamabad wants the international community, principally the US, to use their diplomatic and economic leverage to make Taliban partners in peace building in the war-torn country in an effort to prevent one of the largest humanitarian catastrophes from taking place.

As National Security Adviser Dr Moeed Yusuf put it in his op-ed for Foreign Affairs, A wait-and-see approach, although more politically tenable for many countries, would be tantamount to abandonment.

Pakistan is also hurt by the signals emanating from Washington that seem to hold Islamabad responsible for the American embarrassment in Afghanistan. Such an approach flies in the face of facts and could do lasting damage to bilateral relations.

Pakistan is advising the US against repeating the policy of the 1990s and also looking for a reset in relations. It is to be understood that the transition from deep engagement to estrangement, as witnessed after the end of the cold war, will raise the costs for both the countries.

The endgame in Afghanistan was never going to result in clear victory and defeat in the traditional military jargon. To assume so is to forget the lessons of conflicts in Afghanistan. It has always been a no-win war. To single out Pakistan for the failure of military strategy in Afghanistan is counterproductive.

The Pakistan-US relationship has had a trajectory of its own, despite occasional setbacks. These ties are too important to be left at the mercy of other concerns. Looking at relations with Islamabad through the prism of India is not the right thing to do, as it downplays the importance of bilateral ties. The American relationship with Pakistan should be decoupled and needs to be repurposed through political, economic and diplomatic investments to the mutual benefit of both countries.

Dealing with Pakistan through the Indo-Pacific framework also belies the prevalent reality of our partnership and imposes choices that can be detrimental to the interests of both the countries. If anything, the US has a great deal of influence to bring Pakistan and India to a negotiating table. The situation in South Asia continues to be fraught, especially in the wake of the illegal annexation of Occupied Kashmir by India. The American role in restoring the status-quo ante before August 5, 2019, can be helpful for peace and stability.

Maximalist positions and extreme expectations have done Islamabad and Washington no good. If anything, they have added to mutual frustrations and created suspicions of each other.

Post-withdrawal, fundamental to the relationship is the need for sustained communication and an ability to read each others strategic intent clearly. The leadership in Islamabad and Washington needs to have a shared assessment of the challenges and opportunities to rethink the relationship.

The current US policy for Pakistan gives the impression of being coercive and inhibits in-depth and fruitful engagement. The focus on geo-strategy to the exclusion of other factors is what essentially makes our relationship transactional in nature.

The US-Pakistan engagement can be based on the following points: one, avoiding public criticism of each other and crafting a statement of principles that emphasises mutual respect. Two, reviving strategic dialogue and multi-tiered consultations at various levels of both the governments.

Three, both countries should have no problem pursuing their respective development priorities. Given Pakistans massive needs for growth and development, it should not be expected to become part of a major power struggle.

Four, Pakistan is located at the gateway of Central Asia and has the potential to foster connectivity and become a transit hub. The US can benefit greatly from trans-regional economic and trade cooperation.

Five, in an interdependent and globalised world, a shift from geo-strategy to geo-economics is not just desirable but also an acute necessity. Geopolitics has limited validity and the time for it is probably over.

Six, the US corporate sector can identify projects for investment in Pakistan. Both governments can take steps to facilitate greater business cooperation by improving ease of doing business, strengthening people-to-people contact, and educational, cultural and parliamentary exchanges.

A Pakistan-US partnership will certainly be a positive factor in promoting regional peace, stability and development. For that, Islamabad and Washington need to show imagination, creativity and courage to learn from the mistakes of the past to chart the way forward.

The writer, a Chevening scholar, studied International Journalism at the Universityof Sussex.

Email: [emailprotected]

Twitter: @Amanat222

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Pak-US ties: the other view - The News International

Over the past two or three years, media outlets all across the globe have been emphasizing North Koreas growing isolation from the outside world, marking the countrys inevitable economic slump, which may potentially lead to the dissolution of the state.

The economic siege appears to come from two fronts: international sanctions and sanctions initiated by individual countries, primarily the United States, which have been comprehensible since 2017. Washington has been making an effort to ensure that its blockade is absolutely impenetrable and that it remains so for time to come. The designations of such U.S. strategy may change; however, its essence remains the same. Under Donald Trump, it came to be known as maximum pressure campaign. The incumbent Biden administration claims to have adopted a different approach, wherein it is ready to meet with representatives of North Korea anytime and anywhere. Yet, in practice, it is obvious that the United States only seeks to reinvigorate its sanctions regime, ignoring the implications of COVID-19 as well as repeated calls coming from UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres to lift all sanctions during the pandemic.

The rigidity of this policy was evident during a series of online ministerial meetings with the ASEAN countries in early August 2021, when Secretary of State Antony Blinken would persistently call for full implementation of the sanctions regime against North Korea. The decision to extend a ban on travel for U.S. citizens to North Korea adopted by Washington early in September can also be attributed to this policy stance. The decision disappointed many in Americas expert community who saw it as a missed opportunity for U.S. diplomacy as suspension of the Trump-era travel ban would have been consistent with the Biden administrations public remarks about its North Korea policy objectives.

At the same time, the Western media tend to adopt a conservative stance when assessing the domestic situation in North Korea. We are witnessing an increasing number of critical, if not fatal, social and economic difficulties that could lead to the regimes collapse, with the main reason for them largely being the regimes own mistakes rather than the suffocating sanctions of the international community. The media refer to such errors as introducing an excessive lockdown to counter COVID-19, tightening the screws by exerting stricter control over the population, brainwashing the population, searching for scapegoats for the countrys economic problems, etc.

Therefore, it would be a good time to give some of our thoughts and conclusions about how political processes in North Korea have been evolving. As of the major political events of 2021, we have to mention the following.

First, one cannot ignore the scope and intensity of the political activities consistently undertaken by the countrys leadership.

North Koreas Kim Jong-un took action to return the country to the classical model of party-political work typical of a socialist state. He is staying loyal to the slogan proclaimed when he came to power, everyone should focus on their own work. The army should build up defence capabilities, the party should stick to the political agenda while the Cabinet should deal with the economy, with the military now losing some of the powers it had acquired when the nation was in the pursuit of a military-oriented policy to see the army actively involved in politics and economic activity.

The countrys leader keeps a close eye on the compliance with statutory norms regulating the timeframes for holding party forums: the 8th Congress of the Workers Party of Korea took place exactly five years after the previous Congress, followed, only six months later, by three plenary meetings of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea as well as three extended meetings of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea were held. At these meetings, pressing challenges facing the country are discussed on an almost monthly basis. This started from the 8th Congress, during which Kim Jong-un demonstrated a direct and open approach as he declared that a number of key tasks of the previous five-year plan had not been fulfilled as effectively and swiftly as needed. These include maintaining and strengthening the emergency, anti-epidemiological and sanitary measures to prevent COVID-19 from proliferating throughout the country, battling the food shortage emerged in May to June 2021, rebuilding the areas devastated by natural disasters as well as the definitive fulfilment of the grain production plan.

Alongside these party forums, a series of large-scale industry-specific congresses were held during this period. These, among others, included meetings of youth, trade and womens unions, meetings of secretaries of primary party organizations, the 7th National Conference of War Veterans. Each congress lasted a few days, being all attended by several thousand delegates. For example, some 10,000 delegates took part in the 6th Conference of Cell Secretaries of the Korean Workers Party in April 2021.

All this was against the backdrop of a difficult situation in the economy that has largely been caused by the international blockade (both due to suffocating sanctions and as a result of the countrys self-isolation) as well as the complete shutdown of borders to prevent coronavirus from entering the country.

These facts alone show that the country has demonstrated resilience in spite of all the difficulties.

Second, all these events show that Kim Jong-un is committed to building a socialist state and to carrying out his political agenda through a communist-type party, which is something he puts a premium on.

At the same time, some believe one explanation for why he is doing all this is that he would like to win respect of Xi Jinping, who promotes the same values in China within the Communist Party of China (CCP).

The most recent of these forums, the 3rd Plenary Meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers Party of Korea held in June 2021, attracted a great deal of attention.

Much work was done to prepare for the plenary, such as a meeting between the party and economic activists in the run-up to the event. The work of the plenary was well-organized: the clearly structured programme featured specific sessions and on-topic panel discussions.

Just like at all previous events, the main tasks facing the country were highlighted at the plenary. These include searching for ways to overcome the economic challengesa topic discussed rather franklyas well as taking efforts to uphold the strict lockdown measures put in place to prevent COVID-19 from making its way into the country. The most pressing and urgent challenges for the country were thus placed front and centre.

Requirements to provide a decent nutrition for children in kindergartens, to include dairy products, speak to the countrys severe economic situation while the crackdown on anti-socialist and, interestingly, non-socialist phenomenaincluding defeatism and opportunism, which are now viewed as the most negative factorsspeak to the difficult political situation.

This shows that the current state of severe economic turbulence prefers a dominant, state-controlled, centralized economy, while experiments with market economy are phased out. That said, it is unlikely that the market-oriented sector of the economy will completely disappear.

One of the principal tasks of all these party forums was to mobilize party members, activists and the populace to unprecedented levels in order to tackle the tasks set forth during the 8th Congress and elaborated at subsequent plenary meetings, which were aimed at adapting the countrys economy to the new conditions of the blockade and a dire economic situation.

An integral function of this task was to disseminate information amongst the population regarding the proposed party policy and its goals, which was achieved via numerous public gatherings, forums and other events. This is unlikely to surprise anyone. This area of work has and will always remain a priority in any political system worldwide.

Yet, interestingly, party activists have also initiated the search for new and creative solutions to current challenges by using their own resources, searching for people capable of generating new ideas, approaches and methods of work, later promoting them to higher ranks in the party. This is currently one of the highest priorities. Essentially, the main idea revolves around the fact that it is impossible to solve new crises with old solutions. Thus, those unable to implement new and effective approaches must be removed from leadership at all levels. This, on the one hand, seems to explain the frequent changes in party members at various levels. On the other hand, the same process testifies to full-fledged and functioning social and career lifts in the socio-political system.

A review of North Koreas political and socio-economic activity over the first nine months of 2021 brings us to the following conclusions.

The situation in the country, especially in the economy, is rather graveperhaps, even drastic in certain aspects. The causes have already been mentioned. Nonetheless, this is nothing out of the ordinary, and the challenges faced by the country are far from unprecedented. Many analysts from around the world keep returning to the question of how resilient North Korea really is and how long the country can stay afloat amid the current situation. Our answer here would be for a long time to come.

North Korea is certainly a country with many peculiarities. For almost the entire history of its 73-year existence, the country has been under sanctions and serious external pressure which have only intensified over the past 30 years and almost led to its collapse. However, not only has North Korea withstood these challenges, but it has been able, albeit at a moderate pace, to attain development goals, consistently strengthening its defence capabilities (including a very real nuclear potential) and the civilian sector of the economy (including several partially successful market-oriented experiments when the external situation allowed).

The expert community has always attempted to guess the secret ingredient to the endurability of the North Korean regime. An obvious component would be the unique social-economic mechanisms tailored to the countrys unique situation. The socialist model of economic mobilization, well-known from the first five-year plans of the USSR, demonstrated throughout World War II and during the post-war reconstruction of the economy, is highly effective. Ironically, it should be noted that U.S. think tanks have only now begun to ponder decoupling, conceptualization of the need to separate the economies of the United States and China, which were knit closely together during what Washington now sees as unsuccessful globalization. At the same time, North Koreas founding father, Kim Il-sung, put forward the theory of self-reliance, primarily in the economic sphere, back in the 1960s. North Korea has since followed this path, which is of great help in hard times.

The challenges faced by North Korea today, no matter how much they hurt, have not yet reached the level of the so-called Arduous March, the severe economic crisis of the mid- to late 1990s. Analysts who closely monitor the language used during the mentioned party forums noted that nothing was said about a Second Arduous March. It would seem that the countrys leadership has calculated all risks and is taking fairly effective measures to control them in time. A successful COVID-19 strategy is one such example. The country instantly responded to the global threat, tightly closing its borders in January 2020, when many people had not yet heard of the new virus. The virus has not yet spread to North Korea. No doubt, the economic costs of such a prolonged self-isolation is exceptionally high. But Pyongyang chose, from its point of view, the lesser of two evils. And it looks like the leadership made the right decision. North Korea has experience in dealing with unprecedented economic difficulties.

In conclusion, it should be emphasized that an analysis of the domestic activity in North Korea shows that, despite serious, sometimes intimidating economic challenges, political life in the country is full, rich and dynamic. This speaks, amongst other things, to the leaderships confidence in the situation in the country.

From our partner RIAC

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North Korea Got It Covered - Modern Diplomacy