Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

The stakes in Haitis harrowing collapse just got more frightening, not only because of the kidnappings but because of the kids. That makes me and a growing number of folks more convinced than ever that the world can no longer stand on the sidelines of this failed-state meltdown.

A month ago I caught some not-so-unexpected flak when I warned the time had passed for asking if the United States and the international community should step in to save Haiti from the political, economic and public security abyss its staring into. It was time, I argued, to ask how they should step in and how to step in without stepping on Haiti the way the U.S. and the international community have so often done for two centuries.

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Im hardly alone at the moment. This week a Washington Post editorial asserted: The free fall in the Western Hemispheres poorest country is accelerating, and it is a pipe dream to imagine it can pull itself together without outside intervention. To oppose a muscular international force that could restore some semblance of order is to shrug at an unfolding humanitarian disaster.

READ MORE: U.S. Hoping Haiti Can Fix Its Failed State for Elections. It Can't - Not Without the U.S.

I'm wary of muscular" international intervention in cases like this. But the Post, like other voices, was simply responding to the virtual takeover of Haiti by powerful, vicious and politically affiliated armed gangs, which control an estimated half of the capital, Port-au-Prince.

Those mafias have re-upped their terrifying ransom kidnapping wave, including last months abduction of 16 Americans and a Canadian, five of them children, belonging to a U.S.-based Christian missionary group. Last week they started hijacking desperately needed fuel distribution as they demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Ariel Henry.

For those of us who also cover Central America, UNICEF issued a perhaps even more haunting advisory this week. The U.N. childrens agency reported that Haitis gangs are now targeting schools, forcing administrators, teachers and students to pay protection money or face abduction themselves. Or worse as Haiti was reminded over the weekend when a gang murdered a kidnapped university professor, Patrice Derenoncourt, because his family couldnt pay all of the $900,000 ransom it sought.

As gangs squeeze educational institutions in that extortion vise, Haitian parents will increasingly and understandably keep their kids at home. Then the vile cycle gets even darker. As UNICEFs Latin American and Caribbean director Jean Gough put it: In Haiti today, every child who is left outside the classroom is more vulnerable to gang recruitment.

Thats the chilling part if you know anything about Central Americas Northern Triangle Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras which has long been overrun by ultra-violent, ultra-tattooed gangs known as maras, including the infamous MS-13.

SHARK-INFESTED WATERS

The main mara ultimatum to kids is this: when we tell you to join our ranks, you join our ranks. Or we kill you. Its the overriding reason the U.S. has seen so many thousands of unaccompanied Central American minors show up at its southern border in the past decade. And its a key reason the Northern Triangle is such a socio-economic horror show: if a country holds no future for youth, it holds no future at all.

Its hard to imagine that same child-devouring monster wont rear its head among Haitis gangs, if it hasnt already.

Rodrigo Abd

Im afraid to see kids I work with step out to the street, Julio Warner-Loiseau, who heads the Haitian youth assistance nonprofit Nouvelle Perspective, told me from Port-au-Prince. The Haitian government cant or wont stop these gangs, so if something isnt done soon to contain them, I see them recruiting Haitian youths en masse.

And the youths who resist? Like Northern Triangle kids, theyll likely appear in greater numbers, and likely unaccompanied, at the U.S.s doorstep. Which for Haitian kids means an even more dreadful if not deadly journey than Central Americans face. Two routes, really: smuggled across the Caribbean in flimsy boats that often sink or capsize from overcrowding in shark-infested waters; or, increasingly, up through Central America and Mexico starting in places like Panamas forbidding Darien jungle.

Keeping young Haitians out of those treacherous seas and forests should be an urgent goal now for the world outside Haiti. Because its clear the government inside Haiti can't do anything about it anymore.

Continued here:

The U.S. and the world must step into Haiti, not just for the kidnappings but for the kids - WLRN

Record atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated accumulated heat have propelled the planet into uncharted territory, with far-reaching repercussions for current and future generations, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The past seven years are on track to be the seven warmest on record, according to the provisional WMO State of the Global Climate 2021 report, based on data for the first nine months of 2021. A temporary cooling La Nia event early in the year means that 2021 is expected to be only the fifth to seventh warmest year on record. But this does not negate or reverse the long-term trend of rising temperatures.

The report combines input from multiple United Nations agencies, national meteorological and hydrological services and scientific experts. It highlights impacts on food security and population displacement, harming crucial ecosystems and undermining progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals. It was released at a press conference on the opening day of the COP26 climate conference in Glasgow.

It rained rather than snowed for the first time on record at the peak of the Greenland ice sheet. Canadian glaciers suffered rapid melting. A heatwave in Canada and adjacent parts of the USA pushed temperatures to nearly 50C in a village in British Columbia. Death Valley, California reached 54.4 C during one of multiple heatwaves in the southwestern USA, whilst many parts of the Mediterranean experienced record temperatures. The exceptional heat was often accompanied by devastating fires, said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.

Months worth of rainfall fell in the space of hours in China and parts of Europe saw severe flooding, leading to dozens of casualties and billions in economic losses. A second successive year of drought in sub-tropical South America reduced the flow of mighty river basins and hit agriculture, transport and energy production, said Prof. Taalas.

Extreme events are the new norm, said Prof. Taalas. There is mounting scientific evidence that some of these bear the footprint of human-induced climate change.

At the current rate of increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, we will see a temperature increase by the end of this century far in excess of the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, said Prof. Taalas. COP26 is a make-or-break opportunity to put us back on track.

Key messages from the report

Greenhouse Gases

In 2020, greenhouse gas concentrations reached new highs. Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) were 413.2 parts per million (ppm), methane (CH4) at 1889 parts per billion (ppb)) and nitrous oxide (N2O) at 333.2 ppb, respectively, 149%, 262% and 123% of pre-industrial (1750) levels. The increase has continued in 2021.

Temperatures

The global mean temperature for 2021 (based on data from January to September) was about 1.09C above the 1850-1900 average. Currently, the six datasets used by WMO in the analysis place 2021 as the sixth or seventh warmest year on record globally. But the ranking may change at the end of the year.

It is nevertheless likely that 2021 will be between the 5th and 7th warmest year on record and that 2015 to 2021 will be the seven warmest years on record.

2021 is less warm than recent years due to the influence of a moderate La Nia at the start of the year. La Nia has a temporary cooling effect on the global mean temperature and influences regional weather and climate. The imprint of La Nia was clearly seen in the tropical Pacific in 2021.

The last significant La Nia event was in 2011. 2021 is around 0.18C to 0.26 C warmer than 2011.

As the 2020-21 La Nia has waned, monthly global temperatures have increased. The year 2016, which started during a strong El Nio, remains the warmest year on record in most of the data sets surveyed.

Ocean

Around 90% of the accumulated heat in the Earth system is stored in the ocean, which is measured through Ocean Heat Content.

The upper 2000m depth of the ocean continued to warm in 2019 reaching a new record high. A preliminary analysis based on seven global data sets suggests that 2020 exceeded that record. All data sets agree that ocean warming rates show a particularly strong increase in the past two decades and it is expected that the ocean will continue to warm in the future.

Much of the ocean experienced at least one strong Marine Heatwave at some point in 2021 with the exception of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (due to La Nia) and much of the Southern Ocean. The Laptev and Beaufort Sea in the Arctic experienced severe and extreme marine heatwaves from January to April 2021.

The ocean absorbs around 23% of the annual emissions of anthropogenic CO2 to the atmosphere and so is becoming more acidic. Open ocean surface pH has declined globally over the last 40 years and is now the lowest it has been for at least 26,000 years. Current rates of pH change are unprecedented since at least that time. As the pH of the ocean decreases, its capacity to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere also declines.

Sea level

Global mean sea level changes primarily result from ocean warming via thermal expansion of sea water and land ice melt.

Measured since the early 1990s by high precision altimeter satellites, the mean global mean sea level rise was 2.1 mm per year between 1993 and 2002 and 4.4 mm per year between 2013 and 2021, an increase by a factor of 2 between the periods. This was mostly due to the accelerated loss of ice mass from glaciers and ice sheets.

Sea Ice

Arctic sea ice was below the 1981-2010 average at its maximum in March. Sea-ice extent then decreased rapidly in June and early July in the Laptev Sea and East Greenland Sea regions. As a result, the Arctic-wide sea-ice extent was record low in the first half of July.

There was then a slowdown in melt in August, and the minimum September extent (after the summer season) was greater than in recent years at 4.72 million km2. It was the 12th lowest minimum ice extent in the 43-year satellite record, well below the 1981-2010 average. Sea-ice extent in the East Greenland Sea was a record low by a large margin.

Antarctic sea ice extent was generally close to the 19812010 average, with an early maximum extent reached in late August.

Glaciers and ice sheets

Mass loss from North American glaciers accelerated over the last two decades, nearly doubling for the period 2015-2019 compared to 2000-2004. An exceptionally warm, dry summer in 2021 in western North America took a brutal toll on the regions mountain glaciers.

The Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent was close to the long-term average through the early summer. But temperatures and meltwater runoff were well above normal in August 2021 as a result of a major incursion of warm, humid air in mid-August.

On August 14, rain was observed for several hours at Summit Station, the highest point on the Greenland Ice Sheet (3 216 m), and air temperatures remained above freezing for about nine hours. There is no previous report of rainfall at Summit. It marks the third time in the last nine years that the Summit has experienced melting conditions. Ice core records indicate that only one such melt event occurred in the 20th century.

Extreme weather

Exceptional heatwaves affected western North America during June and July, with many places breaking station records by 4C to 6C and causing hundreds of heat-related deaths. Lytton, in south-central British Columbia, reached 49.6 C on 29 June, breaking the previous Canadian national record by 4.6 C and was devastated by fire the next day.

There were also multiple heatwaves in the southwestern United States. Death Valley, California reached 54.4 C on 9 July, equalling a similar 2020 value as the highest recorded in the world since at least the 1930s. It was the hottest summer on record averaged over the continental United States.

There were numerous major wildfires. The Dixie fire in northern California, which started on 13 July, had burned about 390,000 hectares by 7 October, the largest single fire on record in California.

Extreme heat affected the broader Mediterranean region. On 11 August, an agrometeorological station in Sicily reached 48.8 C, a provisional European record, while Kairouan (Tunisia) reached a record 50.3 C. Montoro (47.4 C) set a national record for Spain on 14 August, while on the same day Madrid had its hottest day on record with 42.7 C.

On 20 July, Cizre (49.1 C) set a Turkish national record and Tbilisi (Georgia) had its hottest day on record (40.6 C). Major wildfires occurred across many parts of the region with Algeria, southern Turkey and Greece especially badly affected.

Abnormally cold conditions affected many parts of the central United States and northern Mexico in mid-February. The most severe impacts were in Texas, which generally experienced its lowest temperatures since at least 1989. An abnormal spring cold outbreak affected many parts of Europe in early April.

Precipitation

Extreme rainfall hit Henan Province of China from 17 to 21 July. The city of Zhengzhou on 20 July received 201.9 mm of rainfall in one hour (a Chinese national record), 382 mm in 6 hours, and 720 mm for the event as a whole, more than its annual average. Flash floods were linked to more than 302 deaths, with reported economic losses of US$17.7 billion.

Western Europe experienced some of its most severe flooding on record in mid-July.

Western Germany and eastern Belgium received 100 to 150 mm over a wide area on 14-15 July over already saturated ground, causing flooding and landslides and more than 200 deaths. The highest daily rainfall was 162.4 mm at Wipperfrth-Gardenau (Germany).

Persistent above-average rainfall in the first half of the year in parts of northern South America, particularly the northern Amazon basin, led to significant and long-lived flooding in the region. The Rio Negro at Manaus (Brazil) reached its highest level on record. Floods also hit parts of East Africa, with South Sudan being particularly badly affected.

Significant drought affected much of subtropical South America for the second successive year. Rainfall was well below average over much of southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and northern Argentina. The drought led to significant agricultural losses, exacerbated by a cold outbreak at the end of July, damaging many of Brazils coffee-growing regions. Low river levels also reduced hydroelectricity production and disrupted river transport.

The 20 months from January 2020 to August 2021 was the driest on record for the southwestern United States, more than 10% below the previous record. Forecast wheat and canola crop production for Canada in 2021 is 30 to 40% below 2020 levels. A malnutrition crisis associated with drought gripped parts of the Indian ocean island of Madagascar.

Attribution

Preliminary rapid attribution studies have been carried out for the heatwave in northwest America in June and July and of floods in western Europe in July. The study of the heatwave in the Pacific Northwest found that the heatwave is still rare or very rare in todays climate, but would have been virtually impossible without climate change.

For the western Europe flooding, it was found that the heavy rainfall had been made more likely by climate change.

More generally, events such as these fit into a broader pattern of change. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) concluded that the frequency of heatwaves in North America and the Mediterranean has increased. A human contribution to these increases was found with medium confidence in North America and high confidence in the Mediterranean region.

The IPCC reported that heavy precipitation has increased in east Asia, but there is low confidence of human influence. There was high confidence of a human influence on heavy precipitation in northern Europe, but low confidence in west and central Europe.

Socio-economic and environmental impacts

In the last ten years, conflict, extreme weather events and economic shocks have increased in frequency and intensity. The compounded effects of these perils, further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic, have led to a rise in hunger and, consequently, undermined decades of progress towards improving food security.

Following a peak in undernourishment in 2020 (768 million people), projections indicated a decline in global hunger to around 710 million in 2021 (9%). However, as of October 2021, the numbers in many countries were already higher than in 2020.

This striking increase (19%) was mostly felt among groups already suffering from food crises or worse (IPC/CH Phase 3 or above), rising from 135 million people in 2020 to 161 million by September 2021.

Another dire consequence of these shocks was the growing number of people facing starvation and a total collapse of livelihoods (IPC/CH Phase 5), mostly in Ethiopia, South Sudan, Yemen, and Madagascar (584 000 people).

Extreme weather during the 2020/2021 La Nia altered rainfall seasons contributing to disruptions to livelihoods and agricultural campaigns across the world. Extreme weather events during the 2021 rainfall season have compounded existing shocks.

Consecutive droughts across large parts of Africa, Asia, and Latin America have coincided with severe storms, cyclones and hurricanes, significantly affecting livelihoods and the ability to recover from recurrent weather shocks.

Extreme weather events and conditions, often exacerbated by climate change, have had major and diverse impacts on population displacement and on the vulnerability of people already displaced throughout the year. From Afghanistan to Central America, droughts, flooding and other extreme weather events are hitting those least equipped to recover and adapt.

Ecosystems including terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine ecosystems and the services they provide, are affected by the changing climate. In addition, ecosystems are degrading at an unprecedented rate, which is anticipated to accelerate in the coming decades. The degradation of ecosystems is limiting their ability to support human well-being and harming their adaptive capacity to build resilience.

The provisional State of the Climate 2021 report is one of the flagship scientific reports which will inform negotiations at COP26. During the conference, WMO will launch the Water and Climate Coalition to coordinate water and climate action, and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility to improve weather and climate observations and forecasts which are vital to climate change adaptation.

Read the full report at WMO

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WMO: Extreme Weather Events Are the New Normal - HS Today - HSToday

Environmentalist and entrepreneur David Katz once said, We keep talking about climate change when what we need to talk about is business change.

Well, now the eyes of all future generations are upon us.

Flashback to June 1992, Rio De Janeiro, when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established as an international environmental treaty to combat dangerous human interference with the climate system. The treaty went on to be signed by more than 150 countries, leading to the formation of a multinational task force that would support the global effort to limit climate change. Twenty-nine years after that historic moment, delegations that signed the treaty continue gathering for the Conference of the Parties, now more commonly known as COP.

Certain COPs have achieved landmark agreements. The first COP summit held in Berlin, Germany in March 1995 took the issue of climate change to the mainstream it went from being only a fringe issue to now being a top priority for countries, companies and individuals. COP3 in 1997 saw the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, which legally binds developed country parties to emission reduction targets. The Paris Agreement was signed at COP21 in 2015, a seminal moment in humanitys battle against climate change.

Today, the UNFCCC has near-universal membership. The 197 countries under the convention are treaty-bound to avoid dangerous levels of climate change and find ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions globally.

Every country that signed the Paris Agreement has agreed to limit global warming to no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels, aiming for 1.5C. The target will be realised when it becomes imperative for every stakeholder to play an active role to prevent climate change.

COP set a precedent, but its up to individuals and businesses to join the cause. Forming Impact, a members community of change-makers bringing together knowledge, capital and ideas to create sustained impact, has continuously advocated the need for climate action through its international events, which bring together like-minded people who have chosen to leave behind a better world.

The Forming Impact Ocean Summit, held on Bawah Reserve in Singapore, is a great example of the private sectors potentially monumental role in global climate action. Katz, quoted at the beginning of this article, is the Founder and CEO of Plastic Bank and was at the summit. His business stops ocean plastic while simultaneously reducing poverty in vulnerable coastal communities. This is accomplished by enabling the exchange of plastic for money and basic family necessities.

When Forming Impact spoke with Katz in an episode of The 17 Podcast, he emphasised the important role businesses can play while also mentioning that it is not entirely up to them, the real power is in the hand of the consumers and corporations are listening. He continued, Every time you buy something, you are voting. So, if you buy something with excessive and wasteful packaging, thats what youre voting for.

Networks like Forming Impact convene to spark innovation, impact and change. The reason these groups succeed is because they continue to bring together like-minded powerful individuals with similar missions to create positive impact in the world. In person, innovation and action prove to accelerate. COP26 is no different. Convening the worlds leaders, multinational companies and activists with a shared goal to preserve our environment and set road maps for tackling climate change is exactly what the world needs.

As the world aims to be net zero by the middle of the 21st century, the United Nations is hoping that COP26 (31 October to 12 November) will commit countries to accelerate the phase-out of coal, curtail deforestation, speed up the switch to electric vehicles and increase investment in renewable energy.

We continue to look at climate-related issues like they are a climate issue when they are not. It is a human issue. Its not the climate we need to change; its us, Katz said on the climate change narrative. We are entering the regeneration economy. We have moved past the paradigm of sustainability. A conversation that I will do less damage this year than last isnt enough.

Though a collective, global effort is expected, it is known that some countries are more ambitious than others with their climate goals. This is because there exists a stark difference between the developing and developed world.

The developed world has the necessary finances it has industrialised whereas developing nations do not have the same level of industrialisation and socio-economic status. That said, only one country is on track to meet the 1.5C target: The Gambia.

Developed or developing, countries will need to adapt to protect communities and natural habitats, mobilise billions in climate finance, and work together to finalise the Paris Rulebook which makes the Paris Agreement operational. And if we do not reach a collective consensus sooner? Let Sir David Attenboroughs stark message to the UN Security Council in February serve as a reminder, If we continue on our current path, we will face the collapse of everything that gives us our security.

The conventions of COP26 offer a unique opportunity to bring together nations so they may form a cohesive response to an existential crisis. Quoting former US president Barack Obama, The shift to a cleaner energy economy wont happen overnight, and it will require tough choices along the way. But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact.

Now, as the global community descends on Glasgow, the world eagerly awaits the outcome, hoping for commitments that the private and public sectors can expand upon.

Read next: Climate change documentaries that will shock and inspire you to save the planet

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Why we must drive business change when addressing climate change - The CEO Magazine

There would be little or no need for commercial banks if everyone always paid their debts in full and on time. Everyone would then have the best credit rating possible, would not require monitoring, and could borrow or lend at the default-free rate of interest. Although many formal macroeconomic models (implicitly) assume a default-free system in their so-called trans- versatility assumption, this isnt a feature of the real world. Indeed, the probability of default (PD) is a critical concept in any assessment of financial fragility. The term financial fragility is most commonly associated with Hyman Minskys financial instability hypothesis (FIH), which was published more than 30 years ago (Minsky, 1975). According to the FIH, during an upswing of a business cycle, a capitalist, market economy naturally progresses through three states or regimes. Synopsis With rising non-financial corporate debt and evidence of elevated borrowing levels among non-bank financial companies, the fragility caused by excessive leverage has returned to haunt developed-country financial markets. The fact that the failure of a little-known family office firm like Archegos Capital Management resulted in massive losses for leadingbanks suggests that the failure of a rogue, overleveraged speculator can have systemic consequences similar to those seen in 2008. At the end of March 2021, when the world was exhausted from fighting the ongoing pandemic for more than a year, news broke that Wall Street traders were looking for the source of a $19 billion fire sale of tech, media, and other stocks. That burst of selling resulted in the collapse of stock prices for companies such as Viacom CBS, Baidu, and Tencent Music, wiping out approximately $33 billion in share values. The Archegos Incident: Too Big To Fail? Archegos, the family office of former Tiger Capital Management portfolio manager Bill Hwang, captured the attention of investors worldwide in mid-March when the firm suffered catastrophic losses as a result of a portfolio with two major flaws: high leverage and intense concentration in a few stocks. The Archegos messdrew global attention not only because of the magnitude of the losses but also because of its distinct pre-financial-crisis vibe. There were derivatives, huge losses, exposure for large international banks, counterparty risks all of the hallmarks of the 2008 meltdown. However, as disastrous as the Archegos trade unwinding was, the billions of dollars in losses that accrued at the banks (specifically, their prime broker units) that facilitated the trades did not spill over into other markets. Specific stocks in the portfolio were certainly hammered, as evidenced by Viacoms share price, and the dealers who took losses, such as Credit Suisse and Nomura, saw a hit to their stocks as well, but overall market volatility did not rise. In other words, a multibillion-dollar meltdown at a massive fund to which some of the worlds largest banks had massive exposure was largely ignored by the financial system as a whole. AND, Thats fantastic news, it shows that the reforms enacted in the aftermath of the global financial crisis to increase the number of capital banks hold were successful. Global Banking System Turns Protectionist The US banking system was highly leveraged as it approached the meltdowns of 2007 and 2008. Bank borrowing accounted for more than 90% of risk-weighted assets and is increasing. Tier 1 capital, which includes first-in-line-for-losses equity and internally generated earnings, contributed only about 8% of the funding. That figure is much higher and more stable post-crisis, at 12 percent. Banks are accumulating more capital and borrowing less in relation to their assets. Leverage has decreased, while capital has increased. This is importantbecause if a bank has capital equal to 8% of its assets, it is technically insolvent if the value of its assets falls by 8%. Banks have raised the bar for insolvency by increasing capital levels in the event of a sudden drop in the value of their assets. Financial fragility is recognized as a significant issue for individual well-being. According to various estimates, between 46 and 59 % of American adults are financially fragile and thus vulnerable in terms of their well-being. We argue that the role of financial control in shaping well-being outcomes has received less attention in the literature than the role of financial fragility, it is equally or even more important. The total amount of household debt in the United States is $13.5 trillion (Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2019, i.e., 80 percent of the total amount of debt in the United States). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (International Monetary Fund 2019). It is currently at an all-time high, putting American debtholders in a vulnerable position and increasing their vulnerability to external shocks (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic). These high levels of debt were previously linked to a lack of financial planning skills, poor financial management, and harmful consumption behaviours resulting from beliefs that material possessions can lead to happiness. The Curse of Covid-19 Aside from soaring infection rates, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in widespread lockdowns, a shattering decline inoutput, and spikingpoverty. Behind these trends, a quieter financial crisis is gaining traction. The financial fallout from the pandemic disregards regional or socio-economic differences. Nonperforming loans are on the rise in financial institutions around the world. COVID-19 is also a regressive crisis, disproportionately affecting low-income households and smaller businesses with fewer assets to avoid bankruptcy. Macroeconomic policies have sought to offset the sharp declines in economic activity associated with widespread shutdowns since the outbreak of the pandemic. Wealthier countries have been able to respond more quickly. Multilateral lending institutions have also aided in funding the response to the health emergency in developing countries. Temporary moratoriums on bank loans to households dealing with unemployment and struggling businesses have also aided the macroeconomic response. Financial institutions in all regions have granted grace periods in loan repayment. The understandable rationale has been that because the health crisis is temporary, so is the financial distress of businesses and households. However, as the pandemic has progressed, many countries have found it necessary to broaden these precautions. Banking regulation has frequently been lax in terms of provisioning for bad loans and determining which loans are nonperforming. Even with available vaccines, significant financial damage has already been inflicted. Forbearance policies have proven to be an effective coping mechanism, but even extended grace periods must come to an end. As 2021 progresses, more will be revealed about whether the problem confronting countless firms and households is insolvency or illiquidity. High leverage will amplify the financial sectors problems. This type of balance-sheet damage takes time to repair and frequently precedes a lengthy period of deleveraging. Financial institutions lending practices become more cautious. A credit crunch is typically a significant impediment to recovery. Consequences It has been suggested that the interventions by the government can be ossifying or liquifying and the destabilizing consequences of the policy of the government should take into consideration in the areas of the bank, taxation, monetary control and also the lender of last resort. Activist governments will be unable to rid their economies of financial fragility, and efforts to reduce fragility may backfire by causing unintended consequences. Knowing that financial factors can act as shock sources or propagators does not always translate into effective options for mitigating ossifying financial effects. Financial fragility is an unavoidable byproduct of a dynamic capitalistic economy.

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The Real Reason Why Mature Markets Are Losing Steam - The Indian Wire

ISLAMABAD - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in collaboration with the Office of the UN Resident Coordinator, organised an event yesterday to celebrate the 76th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations.

Foreign Secretary Sohail Mahmood was the chief guest on the occasion. A video message of the UN Secretary General was featured at the event.

Speaking on the occasion, the foreign secretary reaffirmed Pakistans abiding commitment to multilateralism, with the UN playing a central role for promoting peace, security, development and human rights for all. He stated that multilateralism was, and will remain a central feature of Pakistans foreign policy.

He noted Pakistans constructive contributions to the work of the UN in promoting the fundamental principles of the UN Charter, including in the areas of peacekeeping, refugee protection, humanitarian action, climate change, and international cooperation for sustainable development.

Noting the various accomplishments of the UN over the last 76 years, the foreign secretary underscored that the UNs mission of decolonization was not yet complete as the people of Jammu and Kashmir still awaited the exercise of their inalienable right to self-determination as promised to them by the resolutions of the UN Security Council. He commended the UN for taking the lead in rallying international support for addressing the humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and preventing its economic collapse, adding that Pakistan was playing its due role in support of that goal.

The foreign secretary thanked all UN Agencies, Funds and Programmes working in the country for their partnership with Pakistan for advancing its socio-economic development objectives.

The UN Resident Coordinator Julien Harneis highlighted the multifaceted UN activities in Pakistan and appreciated the assistance by government of Pakistan in evacuation of UN staff members from Afghanistan and facilitating the provision of much needed humanitarian relief to the country. A youth representative also shared her views on the expectations from the United Nations for meeting contemporary challenges.

The event was attended by the Heads of Diplomatic Missions and UN agencies based in Islamabad, as well as senior government officials and members of the UN staff. The event also showcased the cooperation between UN Agencies and government of Pakistan in the areas of health, food security, and environmental protection, capacity-building and socio-economic development.

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MoFA organises event to celebrate 76th UN anniversary - The Nation

The socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 are devastating communities in the Pacific and Timor-Leste as much as the virus itself, and sometimes to an even greater extent.

World Vision surveyed 752 households (with an average of six people per household) in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste and Vanuatu in late 2020 to better understand the secondary impacts of the pandemic at the community level.

The sample size was relatively small (because the survey was done in an emergency context under government restrictions), but still the results provide a valuable insight into the deep and sometimes unexpected knock-on effects of COVID-19 in the region. Unsurprisingly, loss of livelihoods was the number one concern for the households surveyed.

Almost 60 per cent of respondents had either lost their job, lost income, or resorted to alternative sources of income due to the economic impacts of the pandemic.

The top five reasons cited by households for this loss of income were reduced demand for goods/services (29 per cent), closed markets (20 per cent), lack of access to livelihood inputs such as seeds and materials (18 per cent), movement restrictions (15 per cent), and transport limitations (10 per cent).

These disruptions are crippling the same industries that are the traditional drivers of Pacific economies tourism, agriculture, small- and medium-sized business and money sent home by seasonal workers.

Street vendors and farmers have been the hardest hit, with 56 per cent of vendors and 55 per cent of agriculture and livestock workers saying their work was fully or severely affected by the pandemic in the two weeks before the survey.

This data is consistent with concerns raised by the Lowy Institute that the Pacific has been particularly battered by the economic fallout of COVID-19 and that it could face a potential lost decade of economic progress as a result.

On current projections, average income per person in the Pacific will not recover to 2019 levels until 2028 unless a multi-year recovery package is urgently adopted.

Loss of livelihoods isnt just affecting consumer activity; it is having significant ripple effects across Pacific societies.

The Pacific Aftershocks survey revealed the cruel choices families are forced to make as their incomes collapse, with households resorting to selling assets and even skipping meals to cope:

But this doesnt have to be the case. In the short-term (during the next six months), work is needed to urgently scale up social protection measures (such as cash and voucher assistance and, where this is not possible, food assistance) to help poor families with disrupted incomes meet their immediate needs.

In many contexts across the Pacific region, assistance in the form of cash and vouchers minimises the distortion to markets while ensuring families do not resort to negative coping mechanism such as eating less or forcing their children to work.

To build back better in the medium and longerterm (the next one to five years), a suite of initiatives should be deployed to stimulate the Pacific economy and rebuild livelihoods.

This could include improving access to finance for small businesses, strengthening market systems so they work better for the poor, investing in womens economic empowerment, and restoring environments through lowcost regenerative agriculture.

As a mechanism to co-ordinate and drive this work, it is recommended all national and donor governments in the Pacific region, including Australia, work together to develop an Economic Recovery Compact a roadmap to rebuild the regional economy in a way that leaves no one behind.

By rebuilding livelihoods, starting at the bottom of the economic pyramid, donor and national governments can increase productive capacity, broaden the consumer base, and build resilience across the market system, all while supporting those who need it most.

Just as regional governments worked together to establish the Pacific Humanitarian Pathway on COVID-19, the region should again coalesce around the longerterm recovery effort because a regional crisis like this requires a regional response.

For more information, see World Visions report Pacific Aftershocks: Unmasking the impact of COVID-19 on lives and livelihoods in the Pacific and Timor-Leste.

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COVID-19 recession The impact on the Pacific region - Fiji Times

The Taliban on Wednesday claimed that India was ready to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, where an acute food crisis was unfolding with nearly 14 million people facing starvation.

Two senior diplomats of the government attended a meeting hosted by Russiain Moscow. The meeting was also attended by the officials of Pakistan, China and Iran, in addition to representatives from the new dispensation the Taliban set up in Afghanistan. New Delhis representatives also had a separate meeting with the delegation of the Taliban.

This was the first such occasion when serving diplomats of India attended a plurilateral meeting with attendance of the leaders of the Taliban, which returned to power in Afghanistan a couple of months back through a swift blitz across the country, taking advantage of the withdrawal of troops by the United States and its NATO allies.

The Indian envoy to the Moscow Format meeting said that the people of Afghanistan need humanitarian assistance, Afghanistan is going through a difficult situation. India is ready to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, the Talibans spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, posted on Twitter.

Also Read | Russia recognises Taliban 'efforts' to stabilise Afghanistan

The government officials in New Delhi, however, did not confirm or deny the Taliban spokespersons tweet.

The TASS news agency quoted Russian Presidents special envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, stating that the participants of the meeting in Moscow on Wednesday called on the United Nations to convene an international conference of donors on providing socio-economic assistance to the war-ravaged country.

India had sent two retired diplomats to attend a conference hosted by the Russian Government in Moscow in 2018. A delegation of the Afghan Taliban had also attended the conference in the capital of Russia. India had also sent its ambassador to Qatar to attend the ceremony that marked the signing of the US-Taliban deal in Doha in February 2020.

New Delhi also had some back-channel engagements with the Taliban over the past few months before the militant organisation returned to power in Kabul. Finally, Prime Minister Narendra Modis government on August 31 for the first time publicly acknowledged its engagement with the Taliban as New Delhis envoy to Doha had a meeting with Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai, the head of the militant organisations political office in the capital of Qatar.

Though PM Modi himself called out the Talibans interim government in Afghanistan for lack of inclusivity, his government has been considering supporting the UN and its World Food Programme in responding to the crisis in Afghanistan. The WFP has also been discussing with Prime Minister Imran Khans government in Islamabad the possibility of the consignment of wheat donated by India being transported to Afghanistan through Pakistan.

Even before the Taliban took over Kabul, a humanitarian crisis was already unfolding in Afghanistan, as a result of continued conflict, severe drought, Covid-19 pandemic, failing health system and economic slowdown. It worsened after the government of President Ashraf Ghani collapsed on August 15 and the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan through a swift military blitz taking advantage of the withdrawal of troops by the United States and its NATO allies. The WFP estimated that one in every three Afghans had already been facing severe hunger and now 95 percent of families were not consuming enough food. The conflict-ravaged country is on the brink of economic collapse, with the local currency at an all-time low and food prices on the rise.

Acute malnutrition is above emergency thresholds in 27 out of 34 provinces, and is expected to worsen, with almost half of children under five and a quarter of pregnant and breastfeeding women needing life-saving nutrition support in the next 12 months, the WFP stated in a global appeal for support for Afghanistan. It estimated that it would urgently need US $ 200 million to help people in need across Afghanistan between now and the end of the year.

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Taliban says India willing to send humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan - Deccan Herald

NEW YORK, 15 October 2021 -"Afghanistan is a country in deep crisis, and those least responsible the countrys children are paying the heaviest price.

"Even before the Taliban takeover, at least 10 million children across the country were in needofhumanitarian assistance to survive.

"At least 1 million of these children are at risk of dying due to severe acute malnutrition without immediate treatment.

"The health system and social services are on the verge of collapse.

"Medical supplies are running dangerously low.

"We are already seeing an increase in cases of measles and acute watery diarrhea. Polio remains a concern.

"I visited the childrens hospital and was shocked to see how packed it was with malnourished children, some of them babies.

"Teachers and health workers have not been paid in at least two months and yet they continue to report to work.

"And as the Secretary-General told you earlier this week, the economic system is on the verge of collapse.

"The situation is critical and it will only get worse.

"We anticipate that the humanitarian needs of children and women will increase over the coming months amidst a severe drought and consequent water scarcity, an uncertain security environment, continued displacement, the devastating socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the onset of winter.

"As I speak to you today, millions of girls of secondary school age are missing out on education for the 27th consecutive day. In my meetings with the de facto authorities, I impressed upon them the need to let girls resume their learning. This is critical for the girls themselves and for the country as a whole.

"Here I would like to share some statistics about education in Afghanistan:

"The education gains of the past two decades must be strengthened, not rolled back.

"Finally, a word about our operations.

"We have been in Afghanistan for more than 70 years providing aid to those most in need.

"We have been scaling up our programmes across the country as we gain access to areas that were previously off limits. UNICEF has 13 sub-offices in the country, in addition to our main office in Kabul.

"We carry out our work according to the humanitarian principles of humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence.

"UNICEF, the UN and humanitarian partners are sparing no effort to overcome financial shortfalls, logistical challenges, and an increasingly complex geo-political situation to support the millions of women, men, and children in Afghanistan who depend on humanitarian assistance and protection.

"The de facto authorities, UN member states, donors, humanitarian organizations, and other stakeholders must mobilize immediately to prevent a further humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan.

Originally posted here:

Summary of remarks by UNICEF Deputy Executive Director Omar Abdi on Afghanistan during the Daily Press Briefing by the Office of the Spokesperson for...

As part of its role to inform our readers, Express publicly invited the ward candidates in the relevant wards to answer one question: Which service delivery problem in your ward (area), which hinders the rebuilding of the wards local economy, will you address first and how?

DA candidates responded as follows:Ward 13 Ella Pieterse:

The ward has an unemployment rate of around 41%, higher than the national average. This highlights the seriousness of the need to build a sustainable local economy in the ward to begin to address the challenges of unemployment.

A major factor exacerbating and restricting local economic growth are frequent power outages. This is caused by cable theft, vandalism of electrical infrastructure and the general lack of maintenance of the electricity infrastructure.

Chloorkop Industrial area has been neglected by the current administration, while residents who are forced to work from home, due to Covid-19, have experienced challenges due to the regular power outages.

The inability to supply stable electricity to the ward is severely hampering the economic growth of the local economy. As the ward candidate, if elected, I will pressure the municipal council to invest in upgrading the failing energy infrastructure in the area and improve the security of the substations. We need the EMPD to act strongly on by-law enforcement and protect our infrastructure.

By guaranteeing reliable energy supply in Ward 13, we can attract businesses and investors to assist in stimulating local employment within Ward 13 and improve the overall quality of life, safety and security of all residents.

ALSO READ: #IMadeMyMark: Voters want to hear from candidates

Ward 15 Amanda Davison:

There are many small businesses and entrepreneurial residents in Ward 15. However, the current uncertainty surrounding City of Ekurhuleni (CoE) services be it water or power, refuse or sanitation, litter or lack of maintenance throughout the ward means the area is not attracting new investment, while businesses already established in the ward are struggling to keep their doors open.

Thus, urgent steps must be taken to stabilise services, but I cannot see that happening under the current chaotic, inefficient and unresponsive administration.

If elected as the ward candidate, I will focus on the rezoning of areas for the possible development of small business nodes.

Small businesses need to be re-identified and allowed to relocate to these possible rezoned business nodes to assist in formalising a business sector.

Another economic opportunity, which will assist in building the local economy, is formalising the informal recycling sector. This crucial service, provided by waste pickers, assists in keeping tons of recyclable waste out of our landfill sites. We need to assist in building a green economy. If elected, I will force the city to formalise, train and register waste pickers and ensure city assistance to allow informal recyclers to contribute meaningfully to Ward 15.

Ward 16 Jaco Terblanche:

One of the biggest service delivery problems in Ward 16 has been CoEs inability to provide services to the community. The dire economic situation in the ward is characterised by high unemployment and a lack of opportunity, exacerbated by the pandemic, has seen a proliferation of homeless people seeking shelter in the Kempton Park inner-city, while systemic socio-economic issues have led to this unfortunate situation.

The result means people are living in increasingly unhygienic conditions due to a lack of provisions for adequate sanitation. Other socio-economic conditions have also emerged, such as an increase in crime and drug abuse.

As the ward councillor, I intend to put pressure on the metro to urgently provide the necessary provisions for these desperate people in accordance with their human rights. In addition, I will engage with other stakeholders, such as NGOs and faith-based organisations, in the area to provide shelters and feeding centres for the homeless and try to assist with skills development.

While it is a desperately unfortunate situation, the adverse effects of service delivery failure have added to the economic decline of Kempton Park. As a councillor, my priority is to urgently address this issue to revive the wards local economy.

Ward 17 Simon Lapping:

As the DA ward candidate for Ward 17, it is crucial we focus on revitalising the CBD to stimulate the local economy. There are no public toilet facilities available in the inner CBD and our streets are littered with trash, while the increase in crime has deterred investors and hampered economic growth.

To tackle this and revitalise the CBD, I will force the city to increase visible enforcement officers and by-law enforcement. This will help to instil investor confidence in the CBD once again. Furthermore, I will fight to keep the streets and inner-city clean by requesting a night cleaning team to ensure the city is maintained and clean. Security camera instalment at crime hot spots will improve community safety in the area.

By getting the basics right, small business owners and investors will be enticed back into our CBD.

We also need to secure our electricity grid and provide businesses with reliable water. This will allow businesses to operate at their optimum and in turn increase revenue generated, which will flow back into the local economy.

Ward 23 Andre du Plessis:

Due to the collapse of sewer infrastructures in Bonaero Park, resulting in weekly sewer overflows into private properties, as well as ecologically sensitive wetlands, residents have moved out of the area and settled elsewhere.

Compounding this is the continual electrical and water interruptions. Businesses are hesitant to invest in this area, thus a great loss in job opportunities has begun to affect residents.

The existing commercial areas have deteriorating roads and stormwater infrastructure, causing established businesses to move out of the area, exacerbating job losses and unemployment within Ward 23.

If in governance, I will ensure the collapsed infrastructure services are prioritised by ensuring budget allocation. This will assist in stabilising the ward to prevent further collapse but also enhance immediate, short-, medium- and long-term infrastructure upgrades and maintenance to attract investment and create job opportunities for the community.

Adequate attention will be given to working with other spheres of government to protect and preserve the sensitive ecological habitats within the area, to ensure Green Lungs are protected and preserved for future generations. This can assist to build the green economy in Ward 23.

Ward 25 Pieter Henning:

Ward 25 has experienced severe power outages in recent years. This has severely hampered the growth and recovery of the local economy within the area.

Electricity is a basic service that industry needs to survive and thrive. Unfortunately, the rampant power outages have drastically affected businesses that have also struggled during the pandemic.

If elected as the ward councillor, I will engage with the relevant stakeholders and the municipality to ensure a sustainable and reliable electricity feed to the area. This will be fundamental in steadying the industrial businesses in the ward.

We need to assist the survival and growth of industries wherever possible.

In the IDP, I will also place the electrical infrastructures upgrades (as well as water, sanitation and road infrastructures) as a critical priority. By ensuring this gets done, it will encourage business confidence back into the area, which will help to create direct employment in the area.

In addition, by ensuring service delivery and getting back to basics, we will be able to grow the local economy.

Ward 91 Desmond McKenzie:

Ward 91 is home to close to 25 000 people.

One pressing concern raised by many in the community is the challenge of establishing a small or medium business in the ward. The pandemic has also had a devastating impact on the livelihoods of many residents, and they have had to reinvent their businesses, while those wanting to start a business continue to experience red tape and the lack of municipal support.

To rebuild the wards local economy, I will initiate small business exhibitions. This is an initiative I originally launched in 2018 and 2019, which aimed to mobilise and assist with public and private educational awareness and foster networking in the area.

Furthermore, I will advocate for the relaxing of red tape restrictions in establishing a business and ensure municipal support to SMMEs. This can be achieved by engagements with the metros Business Centre Support Office.

It is also crucial to facilitate a working relationship between the informal sector and the business community. We need bold thinking and to get things done to rebuild our local economy. As the ward candidate, I will continue to use every avenue available to me to get our wards economy functioning again.

Ward 104 Tracey Lourenco:

Ward 104 has several challenging issues; however, the one service delivery issue most damaging to the local economy has been the regular power outages caused by a lack of maintenance to electricity infrastructure. Regular bouts of load-shedding exacerbate the problem.

Ward 104 is primarily residential, comprising suburban areas and small businesses. The pandemic has necessitated the need for many residents to work remotely and are, therefore, reliant on a consistent electricity supply for online access. In addition, the impact of the pandemic on the economy has meant that small businesses in the area are under enormous financial pressure, and any downtime related to power supply has the potential to be devastating. CoEs inability to supply stable electricity to the ward is thereby severely hampering the economic growth of the local economy.

As the ward candidate and community representative, I plan to continue to apply pressure on the municipal council to invest in upgrading the failing energy infrastructure in the area as a matter of urgency.

A stable electricity supply will go a long way in kickstarting the local economy after more than a year of subdued growth associated with the lockdowns associated with Covid-19. This will be my number one priority in ensuring residents do not suffer as a result of poor infrastructure maintenance.

Link:

#IMadeMyMark: what Kempton's DA candidates have to say - Kempton Express

It has been growing for several decades.

In academia, my home turf, it was noticeable in the 1980s with the rise of feelings and emotions as key social science concerns how people felt about reality, not what reality was.

Reason, rationality and the Enlightenment (scientific) tradition were traditionally left-wing turf (from Karl Marx to Clement Attlee), but are now substituted for feelings that is, emotional states of mind.

Emotional states, as any psychologist knows, grossly distort perceptions of reality.

They are easy to manipulate via modern media and spin, whilst reason and rationality require scientific discipline and mental rigour.

Woke issues are media-friendly precisely because they have emotional impact, and because the media are dominated by woke educated arts and humanities folk who lack real scientific training.

Further, most media folk are middle class, and woke issues dont threaten their materially-comfortable lifestyles.

Thus banning speakers, political correctness, and emotional outrage dont involve paying higher taxes to resource practical real solutions; for example, providing better healthcare, welfare, or social services things that really and inclusively help all races and creeds.

One can still have a second home in France and feel emotionally good by being politically correct.

Woke issues often do exist, like racial inequality, but their understanding of them and proposed solutions are infantile and downright dangerous - like, for example, where curbs on freedom of speech are concerned.

They also ignore white inequalities, like working class deprivation in post-industrial society, making working people feel bitter hence Labours drubbing in Northern England.

Yet the flight of the Left from reason has rational explanations, e.g. the collapse of the Soviet Bloc founded on Marxs Enlightenment ideal of scientific socialism.

The Left sought a quick alternative and found it in sloppy touchy-feely politics, instant emotive issues, and symbolic gestures like toppling statues or political correctness.

Marx would have scorned such empty, gesturing fools.

Modern society is frequently unjust and rife with real socio-economic and political problems, but the solutions lie in painstaking, tedious analysis and long-term planning, resources and delivery systems, not grand posturing.

In such a world there is a serious need for a Left to challenge greedy self-interest - doing this is even fundamental to a liberal democratic society.

Here, Ulsters heritage could provide a template. Modern economics and Enlightenment thought actually has its roots in the Ulster moral philosopher Francis Hutcheson (1694-1746) Father of the Scottish Enlightenment and man who taught Adam Smith (1723-90) economics (Smith being credited as founding modern economics).

Both men were moral philosophers who would never advocate greedy self-interest.

They saw the greatest virtue and happiness in dong good for ones community and fellow man (something modern market economics blissfully ignores).

What Hutcheson taught Smith was that by removing artificial constraints, from race to socio-economic disadvantage, over an individuals ability to develop their talents to the full enabled men to make a greater contribution to their community and fellow men.

This Enlightened, moral dimension of market economics (for the benefit of others) is usually ignored.

But it represents an old Left critique of market economics, something which requires the rationality and reason of a disciplined mind - which modern woke-ism now eschews for emotive gestures.

James Dingley is a former international lecturer and NATO Instructor on terrorism and editor of: Combating Terrorism in Northern Ireland

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Karl Marx would pour scorn on the touchy-feely PC rubbish of today's woke left - Belfast News Letter