Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

As senior Russian officials prepare for talks on European security with Western counterparts, three aspects of the latest crisis around Ukraine point to its seeming intractability, but also lay bare an elemental factor that must be addressed if a way out of the impasse is to be found. First, the crisis underscores the scale of the challenge when the clash is over competing rights, not merely conflicting interests. Second, any solution depends on incentives favoring it, but when these are missing and disincentives prevail, little progress can be expected. Third, the absence of trust between the two sides is the elemental factor that creates a prior and fundamental obstacle to any movement forward and needs to be addressed separately. Together they undergird the danger with which leaders are struggling.

Common sense has long suggested that the safest and soundest level of national security resides in mutual security between and among states struggling in the scrum of international politics. During the brief halcyon years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, this idea was at the heart of the pledge by U.S., European and Russian leaders to create a Euro-Atlantic Security Community from Vancouver to Vladivostok. The pledge was not honored for lack of creativity and political will, but the basic idea remains key if the worst is to be averted and steps easing the crisis surrounding Ukraine are to be found. What then is to be done?

Russias latest military build-up near the Ukrainian border has once again put Moscow and Washington on a collision course in their pursuit of security, with each claiming rights that seem to infringe on the other sides. Russia, for its part, insists on its right to reinforce and move its military forces about as it likes within its borders; how it chooses is nobody elses business. The U.S. and its NATO allies, in turn, insist that Russian neighbors, including Ukraine, have the right to choose with whom to ally and what organizations they wish to join; Russia does not have a veto over their choices.

If Russia, however, has the right to do what it wishes with its military forces on its own territory, then Ukraine has the right to do whatever its leaders wish to enhance the defense of their own territory, including securing major military assistance from outside. Likewise, if Ukraine has the right, as the White House has officially said, to decide its own future foreign policy course free from outside interference, including with respect to Ukraines aspirations to join NATO, then so does, say, Cuba. But how likely is it that the United States would react passively if Cuba entered a defense pact with Russia and allowed it to establish naval and air bases on the island? In these scenarios, Russia, Ukraine and Cuba are within their rights, but does this mean they would be wise to exercise them?

Unlike, say, the other preoccupation of leaders in Washington, Europe and Moscowthe COVID-related conflicts where a countrys citizens have clashed over one groups right to personal freedoms versus anothers right to public safetyconflicts between nations have no supreme arbiter, no level of government, capable of issuing and enforcing mandates or manipulating incentives to encourage one or both sides to back off the right they claim. The international system is a self-help system, and only the parties themselves can mitigate or eliminate the danger created by their claims. Thus, they have to produce the incentives leading in this direction.

At the moment, Russia and the West are focused on imposing unilateral negative incentives that lead in the opposite directionwith Russia threatening to invade Ukraine if it ends up in NATO (or NATO ends up in Ukraine) and the West threatening unprecedented sanctions if Ukraine is invaded. The escalatory risks inherent when countries insist on countervailing rights are thereby in danger of crossing the threshold into violence.

Instead, positive incentives are what is needed, but only if mutually beneficial. The measures taken would have to promise greater security with reduced risk than each side currently believes is better achieved through unilateral negative incentives. The goal should logically be national security embedded in mutual security, and the logical path toward this would be steps leading away from the use or threatened use of military force to resolve conflicts of interests. Steps toward this would include:

Substituting positive incentives for those currently favored by the two sides, however, is not enough. Managing the current sources of tension is crucial, but this should be done within an altered agenda whose major focus is on the existential threats facing both sides. These include: regaining control over a more complex multipolar nuclear world in danger of running out of control; containing the onrushing dangers created by climate change; and girding to deal with future health pandemics worse than the current one and the destructive socio-economic effects that will exacerbate them. Achieving a level of cooperation commensurate with the threat that each poses will be exceedingly difficult, but the first order of business should be for countries on both sides of the divide to make the effort a priority.

If seeking greater security through mutual benefit is the direction in which logic points, why is this not the direction that events have taken? The answer brings us to the ultimate factor at playthat of trust, or in this case its absence. Again, we see a parallel with the pandemic, which has forced U.S. public health officials, for example, to struggle against low trust in government and experts.

But alleviating mistrust between Russia and the United States, again, has to be a bilateral enterprise. And it is important because the obstacle created by mistrust exists before other sources of tension work their effect. It both paralyzes the will to try to alter the current trajectory of U.S.-Russian relations and short-circuits steps that might be taken to move in a more constructive direction. Moreover, as relations between Russia and the United States and its NATO allies have steadily deteriorated, mistrust has deepened and then congealed. As a result, it has become a factor separate from the specifics of the issues that set the two sides at odds.

Because mistrust is not only separate but a roadblock, merely acknowledging its role is not enough. If progress is to be achieved, building trust needs to be an initial and separate policy objective. The steps may be smallsuch as restoring diplomatic facilities to a functioning level or toning down information warfare in whatever form or opening the door to dialogue, as the two presidents have donebut they should be taken with the express purpose of restoring some level of trust. If policymakers in Moscow and Washington (and Brussels) are to move away from strategies favoring unilateral negative incentives and gradually open the way to strategies featuring mutually reinforcing positive incentives, they will need to relearn how to think in small constructive terms with the larger objective always in mind.

Photo by Kremlin.ru shared under a Creative Commons license. The opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

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For Russia and US, National Security Must Be Embedded in Mutual Security - Russia Matters

Zoya Hasan

Professor Emerita, JNU

As Ayodhya, Varanasi and Mathura take centre stage in Indias weightiest state, it is clear that the ruling partys campaign in the poll-bound Uttar Pradesh (UP) is centred on Hinduising the voters, rather than bothering about the economy or harmony. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its lead campaigners are reluctant to focus on the track record of their double-engine government in the last five years. But they are never short on attacking past governments for lack of development and making exaggerated claims regarding development under their own government. Thats why, it is imperative to scrutinise the claims of the UP Government and the consequences of its divisive politics.

The state records one of the lowest growth rates in India. On most development indicators, UP ranks poorly compared to other states. It is economically backward and socially conservative. Even a cursory examination of the actual conditions of people would show no significant improvement in the quality of public life, health or education sectors or employment opportunities. Unemployment, lawlessness and the collapse of public infrastructure remain the calling cards of the state.

Even so, the BJP has been trying to portray UP as a transformed state under its government. The UP Chief Minister had said in March 2020, while marking his governments fourth year in office, that UP had been lifted from the Bimaru (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) status to Samarth (capable). But most development indicators belie these claims. UP was a Bimaru state and it has remained so. If anything, it has worsened in some respects in the last five years.

An important indication that things have not changed much can be seen from the states per capita income, which has increased by just 0.43 per cent over the four years of this government as against the claim of 100 per cent growth. Per capita income was half (Rs 41,023) of the national average (Rs 86,659) in 2019-20 and the second lowest in the country.

But still, the UP Government has been putting out front-page advertisements in leading newspapers that the state is making great progress, even claiming that UPs per capita income has doubled. These claims are based on figures of gross state domestic product (GSDP) in the budget documents of 2021-22, which was revised upward, implying an increase in growth over 2019-20.

But this is far removed from the official estimates of GSDP prepared by the Department of Economics and Statistics (Economic Growth in Uttar Pradesh in Recent Years, Economic and Political Weekly, December 11, 2021).

Let us look at the two crucial indicators of health and womens employment to gauge the state of development. UP is at the bottom of the 19 large states in the latest Niti Aayog health index for 2019-20. It is ranked the worst in institutional deliveries both in 2014-15 and 2019-20. The state was hit by the disastrous second wave of Covid-19. The states misery was reflected in oxygen shortages, failing public hospitals and visuals of hundreds of dead bodies buried hurriedly on the banks of the Ganga. UP is among the states with the lowest female participation in the workforce. It was less than 10 per cent in both urban and rural areas in pre-Covid-19 years and is unlikely to have grown since the pandemic. With 91 per cent of women out of the labour market in UP, they are among the poorest and most vulnerable. UPs economy has clearly failed them in terms of meagre employment generation and the lack of associated income opportunities.

The dismal state of development has to be seen in the backdrop of the growth of Hindu nationalism which dominates politics and society in that state. UP has been critical to the public staging of the Hindutva project in a way that is not true of other states. The figurative significance of Ayodhya, Kashi and Mathura in this process as symbols of Hindu unity and as a wedge around which communal consolidation can take place cannot be underestimated. None of the other states quite have this cache. Currently, nation and religion are interchangeable in UP, but, ironically, the state is more divided and unequal than before. In fact, the ideologues of Hindu nationalism never ever refer to distributive justice or equity or improving the lot of the poor. They seek to unify the majority by disguising the true state of development or livelihoods with the lure of religious nationalism, which then becomes a mask to obfuscate the most significant inequalities.

The head of a mutt is the head of the government. Under his watch, the states descent into a communal cul-de-sac has gained momentum. Every day, there is a frontal assault on secularity, justice and decency. Add to this, the discrimination and intimidation of Muslims by the highest political functionaries and their total exclusion from public institutions, fusing the state with religion (of the majority) entirely. This underlines the inability of religious nationalism to conceive of equal citizenship and equal participation as the foundation of democracy.

The stage is set for a high-voltage electoral battle in UP in the coming months. This is the moment when the state government must be held to account as regards its performance. This has acquired urgency as the BJP seeks to alter the very basis of politics to create a permanent ethnic voting bloc, privileging the majority Hindu community to establish Hindu dominance, with economic issues relegated to the background and matters of jobs, price rise and public health thrown out of the electoral fray.

The politics of hate adversely affects economic activity as it overtakes basic issues. As a result, UP is struggling with the contradictions between the socio-economic needs of the people and the communal agenda of the regime.

Hindu nationalism has subverted the political vocabulary from democracy, rights, equality and deliberation to sacrifice, duty, victimhood, pride, law and order, cow protection, love jihad and conversions. This vocabulary undercuts the language needed for actually developing and implementing policies that would benefit the people.

The rights-based approach to development, where people get benefits as a right, rather than as an act of benevolence from the government, is the way to rescue UP and reverse the damages caused by the counter-revolution in the heartland of our democracy.

Excerpt from:

Politics of hate has hit UPs development - The Tribune India

After an eventful 2021, what omens does the year 2022 hold for global politics, economy, and civil society?

The pandemic entered its second year, with the Delta variant and ended with Omicron, decimating lives at a micro level and even some nations at a macro level.

The low interest rates gave the world stock markets the buoyancy that many found unexplainable, and the supply chains constrained businesses across the world, further exposing the vulnerabilities of an otherwise settled global economy.

President Joe Bidens first year as the leader of the free world ran into troubles and Chinas Xi Jinping secured the political validation for a lifelong term, worrying leaders in the West.

India, to the disbelief and dismay of most foreign observers, managed the worlds biggest and most successful vaccination drive, administering over 1,400 million doses, and in the neighbouring region, Pakistans economy continued its free fall and Afghanistan saw the infamous exit of American forces, one that will be etched in the darkest pages of history, and the consequent takeover of Taliban, resulting in a nation starved and betrayed.

Apple, surprisingly, disappointed its worshippers with the new range of iPhones yet the investors went home rich, and Facebook recoined itself to Meta, signalling the arrival of a new age of internet. A brave new world, reckless in definition for many traditionalists, ushered the bull run for cryptocurrencies and NFTs, and the string of stories goes on and on.

As President Bartlet from The West Wing would ask, Whats Next, and what are the global stories we would be chasing in 2022, and why are they important?

1. The Struggle For Semiconductors Is Real

Who would have thought that an industry that has raw materials thousands of times smaller than a virus would have been the main priority for policymakers and world leaders in the middle of a pandemic?

In January 2021, the average waiting time for a chip went up by six days, and in the succeeding month, by another week, thus pushing the waiting time to 15-weeks hampering trade across sectors worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

The horror did not end there for countries without a domestic manufacturing hub realised they were sitting on a ticking time-bomb for supply chains as most chip designers and semiconductor firms were relying on TSMC for their orders, the same company that would be the first victim of an imminent China-Taiwan conflict.

In 2022, the hefty investments committed by India, United States of America, and Europe would be formalised through free trade agreements with the likes of TSMC, Intel, and Samsung.

Alongside, Chinas $1.4 trillion investment over the next few years in the semiconductor industry to decouple its supply chains from the US after a round of sanctions under the Trump era would be on the watchlist of many.

2. Troubles In The Taiwan Strait

Not many in 2019 believed that the political takeover of Hong Kong by China was either feasible or possible, and yet, it happened. The National Security Law, introduced by the mainland China government, mandates arrest for any person, from any part of the world, for criticising the ways of the Chinese Communist Party, and yet, many fear, Hong Kong was nothing more than a dress rehearsal for the imminent Taiwan takeover.

President Xi Jinping has made no secret of his Taiwan temptation, stating how reunification was unavoidable, and any country, especially the US, would be playing with fire if they were to interfere. To make matters worse for Taiwan, the hastened exit of the American forces from Afghanistan and Bidens ambiguous and contradictory statements on US intervention in case of the Chinese invasion continues to alarm Japan, South Korea, and other small countries in the Indo-Pacific region.

While an all-out war in the Taiwan strait is off the cards for 2022, the island nation is bracing itself for more Chinese air patrols after a record number of intrusions, almost a thousand against 350-odd in 2020, in 2021. From the days of 1990s, when China was incapable of fielding an air force in the Taiwan strait, the country had as many as 56 incursions on a single day in October 2021. This year, the clouds of conflict will only grow darker.

3. Falling Like Dominos: Chinas Real Estate Crisis

The parallels between the Lehman Crisis of 2008 and the Evergrande Crisis in China in 2021 were not missed by many. However, unlike the US government in 2008 aiming to set an example in morality by allowing Lehman to fail, the Chinese government opted for a more realistic view of the situation.

Contributing to more than 25 per cent of the GDP growth, Chinas real estate and the sectors associated with it were sitting ducks as the Evergrande Group, with liabilities of over $330 billion, threatened to take the entire sector down.

For the latter half of the year, Chinas biggest real estate group struggled with payments on its maturing coupons, and had to strike a balance between homeowners waiting for their properties and debt restructuring.

In 2022, Chinas real estate developers will face dual challenges, one of raising funds and restructuring their debt to ward off the existential crisis they find themselves in, and two, to make pending payments on their maturing coupons.

Over $50 billion worth of overseas dollar bonds will mature in 2022, and the story of the slowing music in Chinas once celebrated real estate market will be the focus.

4. Indias Political Semi-Final That Feels Like A Final

To an outsider, Indias perpetual election mode is certainly confusing, but to an observer, no year, since 2019, is as politically important as 2022, for this election cycle, starting in February itself, may decide the course of Indias growth trajectory for the rest of the decade.

There are two parties with their futures at stake. One, the Grand Old Party of India, as many call it, the Congress would be looking to establish its resurgence by winning in the smaller states of Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand.

In Gujarat, the GOP would want to dent the ruling partys two-decade hegemony. A routing in these states would certainly accelerate the demise of the party under Rahul Gandhi and signal the emergence of TMC and its leader, Mamata Banerjee, as the new national opposition for 2024.

For BJP, its toughest and most significant battle will be in Uttar Pradesh under Yogi Adityanath. A big victory would certainly give the party enough momentum to win smaller states and eventually, the big national election of 2024. A win in Uttar Pradesh will not only give BJP a face for the post-Modi era, but also give it an opportunity to set the socio-economic agenda for the worlds biggest democracy for this decade and beyond.

5. The Emperors New Term And Tantrums

For China, the country, and the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping is the rightful derivation of the grand strategy that was pursued by Beijing in the wake of three events in close succession, also known as the Traumatic Trifecta in many academic circles. These events were the protests of Tiananmen Square of 1989, the Gulf War of 1990-91, and the infamous collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Each of these events acquainted China with the existential threat it faced, which was social unrest amongst a population corrupted by western ideas, the American military threat to China's ambitions in the Pacific, and the ideological threat it faced as the western model of democracy registered its final dent on Soviet communist with the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Today, more than three-decades later, Xi Jinping is preparing for a lifelong term, starting in 2022, with ruthless power and resources at his disposal. In his pursuit to establish a new world order led by China, Jinping is not only invested in correcting the course of the domestic economy through crackdown on tech, academia, and real estate, but also eye geopolitical supremacy in the Pacific region, Latin America, and Africa through economic coercion and military muscle.

6. Can The QUAD Evolve Into An Equivalent Of Asian NATO?

The year 2021 was a testament to the incapacity of the current world order to decouple from China. From the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan to the political takeover in Hong Kong, and from the atrocities against minorities in Xinjiang to the wolf-warrior diplomacy against the European States, the inaction and silence of Western states demonstrated the free run China enjoys in contemporary geopolitics.

However, in March 2021, the leaders of the US, India, Australia, and Japan came together for the virtual summit of the QUAD, almost seventeen years after it was first envisioned in the wake of the 2004 Tsunami, and questions were asked if there was finally a NATO equivalent in the Pacific to curb China.

Come 2022, and the QUAD needs to do more. Australia has been in a prolonged trade and tariff war with China. Japan senses alarm as China flexes its muscles around Taiwan. India has been in a standoff for more than a year now in the Himalayas, and for the US, a new Chinese world order threatens its interests in Europe, Latin America, and Africa.

Can the four nations extend the QUAD to include ASEAN countries, or chalk out a plan to economically decouple from China, or have a plan of action thats more than just headlines?

7. Bitcoin, NFTs, And Everything Vice

For any traditional investor, a pandemic year and consequently excessive liquidity in the markets is the starting point of inflation, and yet, for the year 2021, gold, as a hedge against the rising prices, dropped 5 per cent.

In the brave new world of cryptocurrencies and NFTs, the promise of decentralised internet and a metaverse built on the principles of Web3, investors enjoyed the most astonishing bull run in the streets of crypto mania.

Even though Elon Musks tweet and Chinas ban on the mining of cryptocurrencies added to the volatility of the bitcoin and several other cryptocurrencies, there was a 50 per cent appreciation in the price of the bitcoin, and NFTs worth billions of dollars were sold. 360,000 owners, holding 2.7 million NFTs, valued at around $40 billion to be precise.

Come 2022 and the bigger question is that can crypto mania sustain? Yes, the pandemic and work-from-home life with excess money in the hands of many millionaires have created a market for imaginary commodities that are being built for a world that does not exist yet, but will bitcoin and NFTs continue to sideline gold and other traditional hedges? Will China and even India, possibly, banning cryptocurrency arrest this bull run, or are we in for the biggest Ponzi scheme in the history of finance?

8. The Soaring Giants Of Silicon Valley

For the players from Silicon Valley, the pandemic has been an enabler for a bull run many would not have anticipated in April 2020. In the last one year, the stock price of Apple has soared by more than 37 per cent, for Facebook, now Meta, by more than 25 per cent, for Googles parent company Alphabet by more than 67 per cent, for Microsoft by more than 54 per cent, for Netflix by more than 15 per cent, for Amazon around 5 per cent, given the high value of its single share.

Together, the five companies minus Netflix added close to $2.5 trillion to their market cap with Apple coming close to hitting the $3 trillion market cap target. Interestingly, the chip shortage that impacted the automobile industry did not dampen the spirits at Apple and Microsoft, even though iPhone shortages were widely reported.

Come 2022, and the rising interest rates would be on the stock calculators of every trader, as an imminent market correction unfolds. The question is will the dream bull run of the Big Tech finally come to an end, and will Apple be able to overcome the impact of chip shortages, and will the market bears finally get the better of Netflix, and what Facebooks transition to the Metaverse will be like, and will the narrative of breaking up the Big Tech be on the minds of the US Congress?

9. Tehran Threat Grows As The Sun Sets On JCPOA

It all started when US President Donald Trump, in May 2018, declared that he would walk out of the JCPOA or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The agreement between Iran and the US, the United Kingdom, Russia, the European Union, France, China, and Germany, the JCPOA, or the Iran Nuclear Deal, enabled Iran to attain economic relief in exchange for its nuclear ambitions.

Today, more than three years later, attempts are being made to salvage whatever is left of the JCPOA. Without the blessings of the hardliners from Tehran, the deal was doomed from the beginning, and with Trumps stance, it all went to the dogs, literally.

In Vienna, negotiators from all sides are trying to scrap together a solution to restore the status quo, but a nuclear crisis encompassing Saudi Arabia and Israel looks imminent in 2022.

For the US, the problems are plenty. The election of a new president, a hardliner cleric, complicates negotiations with the US. The nuclear programme of the country is already advancing, drawing it closer to accumulating weapons grade enriched uranium, as stated by the countrys foreign minister in 2019.

Iran, reluctant to get back to the negotiating table, is already demanding a guarantee of no unilateral withdrawal in the future on the part of the Americans, and a reversal of trade sanctions for them to undo the nuclear gains they have made. Clearly, a diplomatic deadlock with the peace of the entire Middle East at stake.

10. The Year When The Pandemic Becomes A Part Of Our Lives

Almost two years ago, the city of Wuhan in China was put on a lockdown as the spread of an unknown virus threatened the local population. Lockdown, seen as the tactic of a Chinese-like nanny state once upon a time, has become a refuge for the governments world over, much to the dismay of businesses and workers.

Twenty-months since the pandemic hit Europe, America, India, and other parts of the world, there is a prevailing reluctance to accept the virus as a part of our lives, even after a largely successful vaccination drive in the most populated countries, including India.

While the nightmares of the Delta variant continue to haunt policymakers across the globe, Omicron, the first variant of threat post the vaccination drive, is already frightening the governments. In some places, as many as six booster shots are being recommended, and it is only a matter of time before a daily shot is recommended with the morning coffee.

Will 2022 be the year when we finally decide to live with the Covid-19 virus, or will curfews, lockdowns, and other policy shenanigans from 2020 and 2021 continue to haunt us this year as well? This year will also impart more clarity on how the booster business shall work, and how vaccines will have to evolve with the threat and variants of the virus.

From here, the best case scenario is for the world to attain pre-pandemic lifestyles by the end of the year, or else, clearly, we are in for a long haul of economic uncertainties, and that will be far more difficult than the virus itself.

11. The Intricate Economics of Clean Energy Transition

The transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is dirty business, especially if one factors in the geopolitics and supply chain considerations around the rare earth metals that would be indispensable to the future of renewables.

As the world marvels over the development of electric vehicles, inculcation of solar energy in developing countries like India, and the employment of other sources of renewable energies, a bull run previously unheard of will be witnessed in the commodities sector.

Copper, Cobalt, Nickel, Lithium, Chromium, Zinc, Aluminium, and other rare earth metals will be deployed in varying permutations and combinations in manfacturing processes. For instance, Steel, Aluminium, Silver, Copper, and Polysilicon are essential to the production of solar panels while Lithium-ion batteries will mainly use Copper, Aluminium, Lithium, Cobalt, Nickel, and Manganese.

However, this brave new world of clean energy is susceptible to supply chain constraints. Post-2020, the price of solar panels has witnessed an upward trend due to polysilicon prices. Ironically, the world is counting on China to meet the growing demand for polysilicon. Similar trends in the prices of steel, a key raw material for wind turbines, is also hurting the prospects for growth.

The focus would be on Lithium, shortage of which is expected to last across 2022, and how it impacts the companies dealing in EVs. Couple this with the trade war between US and China and there lies the next big trade faultline after semiconductors.

12. Omicron, Oil, And OPEC

The growing threat of Omicron is a testament to the volatile future of oil prices and OPEC. While the pandemic inserted a new lease of life into an organisation that was beginning to come apart, the struggles for OPEC nations are far from over.

While the OPEC nations have cut production across 2021, how will they sustain this cooperation in the face of imminent pandemic disruptions and growing renewables remains to be seen.

On the other side, if the economy does go back to the pre-pandemic times, how oil prices might contribute to inflation across the world, as it did in the US in 2021, will also be important. For OPEC, the challenge would be balancing oversupply and stockpiles with soaring prices.

13. Honey, We Shrunk The Interest RatesToo Much

In December 2021, the serious people running the central banks across the world realised that they could no longer ignore inflation, and thus, what appeared to be a coordinated response from Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and central banks in Norway, Chile, Russia, Japan, amongst other countries was them hinting to push the rates up, with some even doing it.

In 2022, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve and the plausible virus variants, given the Fed has announced that it will hike the interest rate thrice. The tech stocks have already begun responding to the news of imminent rate cuts and one wonders if these are the ominous signs one was looking for a market too heated.

14. At Gods Mercy: The Freefall of Taliban And Pakistan

From fighting the very ideology that Taliban represents, most western states are now looking to negotiate with the new bosses of Afghanistan, even as citizens, especially women, are abused in the most heinous of ways. The country is without resources, people are without food, and children without a future, and yet, the west is slow to act.

A similar collapse, but at a far slower pace, is unfolding in Pakistan. Under Prime Minister Imran Khan, the currency has dropped 30 per cent in value against the dollar and is expected to continue its freefall. Inflation is beyond control even as people struggle for routine items. Even though elections are not due until 2023, will Imran Khans final act unfold in 2022?

15. Russian Roulette On The Cards?

After North Korea, Iran, and Taiwan, there is trouble brewing in the Balkans too. In the final weeks of 2021, Moscow has made it clear to its counterparts in the West that the NATO expansion cannot go on, demanded a curb on the infrastructure and installation of new weapon systems in areas that constitute former Soviet Territory, a stop on the military aid to Ukraine, and a complete ban on intermediate-range missiles in Europe.

While Vladimir Putin would not be reckless, or as is expected, to deploy a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in 2022, time and diplomatic options for the West are running out. The year has begun with Russia installing more than 100,000 troops and heavy weaponry on the Ukrainian border. Also, would the US risk sanctioning Russia thus furthering its closeness with China?

16. Will A Possible Republican Resurgence Signal A Trump Comeback?

After India, it is the US that enjoys being in a perpetual election mode, but the Midterms this year are significant for two reasons. One, they could mark the comeback of Trump as Republicans look to strengthen their numbers in both the houses of Congress.

In America, the party in power tends to do very poorly in the first midterms, and in the last 100 years, the ruling party has picked up seats in the first midterm elections only in 1934, 1998, and 2002.

Two, the 2022 elections will be conducted after redistricting, and thus, the states traditionally voting red will displace the blue and vice-versa. Unlike India, redistricting is left to the states, and therefore, these midterms will only deepen the faultlines of an already fractured society. Bottom line, however, is that will Trump start gaining ground again this year for 2024?

17. To Be Or Not To Be In Beijing

Merely a month from now, Beijing will be hosting the 2022 Winter Olympics. However, the sporting event has already been politicised with some countries stating that while they will send their athletes, they would not send their government officials.

These include the United States, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Many human rights groups across the world are already using the event to demand accountability and answers from Beijing for its actions in Xinjiang, and more recently, in Hong Kong.

While China would look to use the event to further its posturing as the new global leader, especially for countries from Africa and South America, the focus would be a new diplomatic crisis may emerge further stressing the US-China relations.

18. Central Bank Digital Currencies: More Application, Less Theory

Beyond politics, the Beijing Olympics in February are important for one key reason. For the first time, a central bank digital currency (CBDC) would be tested for scale as China will distribute digital yuan to foreign visitors.

For a few years now, faced by the buoyant market for cryptocurrencies, policymakers across the world, including India, have been deliberating a digital currency issued directly by the central bank.

In India, a bill to ban cryptocurrency is also rumoured to include RBIs plan for a digital currency. The CBDCs could usher in the new age of banking with sector-specific monetary policies and credit expansion, a revamp of the traditional forms of banking, but most importantly, the supremacy of digital yuan across the world where China is heavily invested through the Belt and Road Initiative.

19. Will The World Graduate Towards More Resilient Supply Chains?

One of the biggest challenges to a recovering global economy last year (2021) was the sky-rocketing container rates. One, they were hard to find, and two, for the ones who did manage to find one, found it difficult to afford.

While the prices have cooled-off since the peak in September-October, they went 10 times higher than the pre-pandemic rates for a 40-foot container shipping from the West Coast in the US to China. The transit time between the two countries doubled between January 2020 and December 2021, from 30 to 60 days.

The problems are not restricted to the sea for companies will also look to diversify their supply chain in order to make them more resilient to shocks. Thus, for many developing economies, including India, a fortune awaits as the big corporations of the West hunt for a new home.

20. Will We Finally Get To See The Apple AR/VR Headset?

Apples tryst with a $3 trillion market cap is almost a certainty for 2022, but what beyond it? For the past year, the stock price of Apple has witnessed an upward trajectory as investors look forward to the rumoured Apple AR/VR headset. Touted to be the next big thing after the iPhone more than a decade ago, a successful AR/VR revolution from Apple could unleash an array of services, each going to become separate cash cows for the company.

Moreover, the company will look to challenge Facebook and Alphabet, also working on the metaverse phenomenon. Apples headset is rumoured to have a September launch, along with a new range of iPhones and other accessories.

21. NASA Will Gatecrash An Asteroid Party

The year 2022 will bring us many exciting new missions from space organisations across the world, but the most interesting one is NASAs DART or the Double Asteroid Redirection Test Mission. The mission will test a technique that has already been a part of many sci-fi stories, that of deflecting the trajectory of an asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it, or what NASA calls it the kinetic impact technology.

The DART mission is not designed to destroy the asteroid but to deflect it from its original trajectory, in case it may hit the earth. The spacecraft will crash into an asteroid roughly 160 metres in size, bigger than the Pyramids at Giza, at a speed of 6.6 km/s, and the interception is predicted for September 2022. Assuming the mission is a success, this will change the way space organisations look at tackling asteroid threats from outer space.

22. The Streaming Business Is About To Get More Serious

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[Long Read] The Big Year: 22 Global Stories We Shall Be Chasing In 2022 - Swarajya

Sir,

The greatest sin of our time must surely be the state of despair, misery, depression, confusion and nearly complete idleness of the youth which is a result of unemployment and underemployment of the youth in the country. I think not of a better time than now during this pandemic to express my frustrations and those of many young people who are trapped in poverty due to unemployment.

Virus

The virus has hit us greatly and its impacts are felt by many, but I put it to our youth that the effects of this outbreak might be even severely felt in more years to come. The virus has presented us with sickness, fear and death and it has also devastated the survival of many who have lost their jobs permanently and temporarily.

Eswatini over the years has been cursed with the simultaneous plagues of infection and poverty, both resulting to the collapse of a very pivotal group, the youth of this country. The youth are supposed to be the driving force of a new and better country, they are responsible for creating socio-economic, political, creative and constructive changes that will ensure a bright and prosperous future for the current and next generation. Sadly, this has not been happening for quite a while. With everyone bound by many social ills, the youth have been suffering even more. Many are stagnant (idle), some educated with no prospects of being employed. Given such harsh times and the disheartening reality, what exactly is the youth to do to survive?

There are numerous afflictions that have poured down on our young, presumed to be productive youth. From time to time we hear our elders in our communities complaining how immoral and lost our young people are.

Destruction

It is as if this generation has been consumed by the devils wishes for human destruction or maybe he has succeeded at his mission looking at the demise of our youth? Maybe to shed light to our leadership and elders, what exactly could result of a young generation that is just living without purpose, waiting for death to strike? The youth are just floating about, deeply emerged in nothingness and their idle state. Such waste of so much potential and talent!! Such demise is dangerous both to our current state of engagement in society and even worse towards the future. Our leadership in every aspect ought to repent before this idleness kills everything we call an Eswatini society which is thriving.

Remind

We need to remind ourselves the destructiveness that may come with an idle mind and how poisonous such a mind can be. It is the responsibility of the youth to come up with solutions to their own problems and be creative in finding better solutions to such problems, yet at the same time it is also the responsibility of our leadership to assist and aid youth development. Yes, our government is trying but surely it is not enough. The youth therefore has a critical mandate to discover and to create a new functional Eswatini filled with progression and the prevention of suffering.

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Times Of Swaziland - Times of Swaziland

OPINION: Euphemisms are everywhere. Someone who is tired and emotional is drunk. In real estate parlance a Great first step on the property ladder! or a Great first home! is probably a hovel, especially in Auckland.

Politicians and economists resort to them all the time. A market correction sounds like a price being changed at the greengrocers but it actually describes a catastrophic price collapse in the share or property markets. Lower socio-economic groups is a euphemism for poor people.

Euphemisms usually have more words, or at least more syllables, than the basic concrete (usually Anglo-Saxon derived) word which everyone can understand instantly, without having to translate it in their heads. The act of translation (the euphemisers hope) distances us from the concepts that are being described and simultaneously hidden.

The best test for a euphemism is: Do you have to translate the phrase youve just heard into something more concrete - something you can instantly relate to. So when someone asks to be directed to a restroom I know shes not planning to have forty winks. If someone breaks wind hes not building a shelter. When your doctor asks you for a stool sample, dont bring a seat from your breakfast bar.

READ MORE:* Plain Language Bill aims to end bureaucratic bluster* Houston, we have a new word and it's a mouthful* Masterpiece of corporate bombast from an American CEO

Samo Trebizan/123rf

Euphemisms are common when it comes to bodily functions.

Euphemisms are often associated with anything where someone wants to gild the lily (a euphemism for lying), especially bodily functions, sex (which I suppose is a bodily function) and death. These days especially death.

In New Zealand, until recently, people used to die. My grandparents died, and so did my father, or thats what people said at the funerals. But when Mum died a couple of years back, everyone, from the nurse at the hospital, to most giving their commiserations at the funeral, expressed their regret at her passing away, or worse, her passing.

Which makes it sound like she either gave a cheery wave on her way to the shops, or she was excreted.

The same P word was used instead of the D word at a friends funeral recently. I used the D word and was treated, by one person, as if Id sworn. I should have spared the familys feelings, apparently.

Excuse me?

The deceased was lying in his casket. (A euphemism for coffin. In the old days, you could store knick-knacks or jewellery in those.) He, in the slightly adapted words of the Monty Python parrot sketch, was An ex-person. His metabolic processes are now history! He wasnt resting.

123rf

People used to talk about dying, Lyall McFarlane writes, but now we talk about people passing away.

My use of the non-euphemistic word for his familys loss was the least of their worries.

Now funeral celebrants and most attendees treat THAT word like Harry Potter did uttering the name of Lord Voldemort - something dire will happen if one utters its name. As if they might catch their deaths.

I first noticed this trend in this part of the world in 2017, after the drowning of a Kiwi family in the New South Wales floods. An Aussie media outlet said they had passed away. A few months later, comic great John Clarke was reported as passed away on a bush walk. He died of a heart attack.

None of these deaths was peaceful. They were tragically sudden. Sometimes its best to acknowledge a situations gravity by calling a spade a spade.

Old Australian euphemisms for the Great Divide, like, Fell off ones perch, or, Did a bit of a perish, at least had the benefit of understated ironic wit. Not that Im advocating their use in formal settings.

Australians are oh so Americanised, I said to myself, That pulling of punches wont happen here.

Wrong.

Last year, a TV reporter stood in front of a car wreck and told the camera that the driver had passed away, while fleeing police. Judging by the vehicles state, the driver didnt drift off to the Elysian Fields.

I hope the reporters producer had a word with her, and that it wasnt a preview of things to come.

Even in more prosaic passings away, whats wrong with calling them the deaths they are? Most of our media are still telling it like it is, but for how long?

Like most trends adopted here, this development came from America the home of restrooms and stools.

Ive trolled through their media and apart from quality papers, like the New York Times, and traditional broadcast media, they just dont say good old d.e.a.t.h.

For a nation with such a high proportion of professed Christians, it's odd that they seem to feel the need to hide from the fact that, sure-as-shootin, theyre all going to die. Mind you, previously theyve done sterling work in pulling the wool over their eyes that they all have to pee and poo.

123RF

Psychology says that trying not to think of something just makes us think about it more.

There are dozens of sociological and psychological texts devoted to The American Denial of Death.

Ive read them so you dont have to. To sum up, its derived from a culture of relentlessly forced optimism. The reasoning seems to be Sure, every other person in history has died. Losers! But Im gonna be positive and BEAT this thing!

To take any other position would deny theyre not complete masters of their own manifest destiny.

But none of us entirely are.

Treating death as on a par with the other bodily functions we sweep under the collective carpet, wont fend it off. Psychology says that consciously trying NOT to think of something just makes us think about it more. Its proper shrink name is Ironic Process Theory, but its more commonly known as The Pink Elephant Effect. I once was a guinea pig in one of these thought experiments.

When told by brain-care specialists, Whatever you do, dont think of pink elephants! the very act of thought-suppression made rose coloured pachyderms an unshakeable psyche worm. Like the unwanted earworm suffered when I hear Crazy Frog. Its far better to let a thought flit in and out of consciousness. Ditto with death.

So it might be better to consciously accept mortality, but not dwell on it by being in constant denial.

Go here to see the original:

No-one 'dies' now euphemisms are everywhere - from restrooms to market corrections - Stuff.co.nz

Exclusive nterview with Yanis Varoufakis conducted by Nataa Vlai Smrekar for Croatian media Vecernji List. Read it below:

YV: During times of relative financial calm (like now or like the 2001-2007 period), the cost of keeping the kuna (e.g., the higher interest rates you must pay for loans or the fees for converting kuna into euros) seems unnecessary and can easily lull you into wondering whats the point of keeping the kuna. In this light, I can understand the majority saying to themselves: Lets adopt the euro to stop paying fees and higher interest rates we all think in euros anyway. But, that would be a major mistake: Having your own currency is a little like having a car insurance policy you do not value it until you have an accident! In fact, it is more valuable than that. Giving up the kuna would be the equivalent not only of giving up your car insurance but of increasing the chances of a road accident as well!

Why am I saying that adopting the euro would increase the probability of a financial crisis in Croatia? For this simple reason: Presently, when wages are paid in kuna, German banks are somewhat reluctant to lend working class and middle-class Croats because of the possibility that the kuna-euro exchange rate will slide, thus making it harder for Croat borrowers to repay euro loans. But, the moment Croatia adopts the euro formally, German banks will be less coy in lending Croat banks to lend to Croats, especially those who own property that can be used as collateral. Soon, more and more loans will flow from Frankfurt to Zagreb via Croatian banks. The result will be a vast increase in private debt owed ultimately to German bankers while house prices rise (as more buyers will have borrowed more money to buy them). All this will contribute to a false growth spurt, as people who think their assets and businesses have risen in value borrow even more (e.g., via credit cards) to buy more Volkswagens and Peugeots and other imports. Thats how a bubble is inflated before going pop, leaving behind a trail of bankruptcies.

You can imagine the rest: Having been inflated due to the adoption of the euro, the inevitable private debt bubble will have burst. Because this debt is, now, denominated in a currency that the Croatian central bank cannot print (euros!), Croatian banks will go bust and so will a Croatian state that will not be able to honour its deposit guarantee to Croat savers. At that sad moment two possibilities arise: One is that Croatian banks will go bust and the Croat state, to refloat them, will re-issue the kuna, i.e., exit the eurozone. Another is that the European Central Bank will step in to refloat both the Croatian banks and the Croatian state by means of a huge Greek-like bailout loan that, of course, will be given only under conditions of extreme austerity for the vast majority of Croats. In both cases, the majority of Croats are facing a disaster in the face.

In short, my advice to Croat friends both of the left and of the right is: Dont do it! Stay out of the eurozone! After all, there is a great deal to lose from eurozone membership and very little to gain, as the cases of Poland, Hungary and Czechia demonstrate (the former communist EU countries that, bynotjoining the euro, did better than any of the peripheral eurozone economies; e.g. Greece, Portugal, Spain, Cyprus etc.).

YV: The simple answer is that the only way properly to democratise the eurozone is to turn it into a democratic federation, complete with a federal government and a federal finance ministry that unifies a large part of both public and private debt.

Margaret Thatcher had opposed the euro because she feared it was a move toward federation through the backdoor. If only she were right! It wasnotan attempt to usher in a federation. It was far worse than that: A monetary union that locked our peoples in an iron cage of austerity while denying them the opportunity to vote democratically to break open the cages door. Why did the political architects of the euro do this?

For two reasons: From the perspective of surplus countries, like Germany and the Netherlands, it made sense because any financial crisis in the eurozone would put them in the driving seat since governments of deficit countries (including Italy and France) would be bankrupt and their leaders too frightened to speak up in EU Council and Eurozone meetings. The second reason is that oligarchy in every country (surplus and deficit member-states) loved the idea of making it not just hard but impossible foranyelected government to shift significant income or wealth from the haves to the have nots. [That was the effect of denying states the instruments of a central bank while ensuring that the governments would be either on or close to their spending limits.]

The problem with the above analysis is that, when people hear it, they despair. No one believes that, as things stand, it is feasible to talk of a democratic federation one in which, as long as the principle of one-person-one-vote stands, the majority of people will be residents of the poorer, deficit member-states. This realisation begets a sense of helplessness. Nothing empowers fascists, xenophobes and ultra-rightists more than a sense of national humiliation and personal helplessness. To counter this feeling, DiEM25 proposed in the last European Parliament elections as part of our Green New Deal for Europe a two-step process toward the effective democratisation of the European Union:

Step 1: Asimulationof an economic federation based on two main moves. First move would be to let the European Investment Bank (EIB) put huge amount of green investment across Europe and, in particular, in building up a Green Energy Union. This move would simulate a federal investment program by cutting the nation-states out and financing the Green Energy Union without new taxes and centrally. How? The EIB issues bonds to the tune of half a trillion euros every year and the ECB promises to buy them if needs be (something it would not need to do because the mere promise it would buy them would suffice to create huge demand for these bonds). The second move would be to europeanise public debt equal to 60% of any countrys national income. How? By having the ECB issue bonds of its own, to that amount, and swapping them for the national bonds a simulation of creating a federal European public debt similar in structure to the US federal debt.

Step 2: Once large portions of European investment and public debt had become quasi-federal, through the simulations proposed in Step 1, the socio-economic stagnation Europe has been facing since 2008 would end and Europeans would start recognising the EU as a force for good in their daily lives. At that point, DiEM25 hoped, it would be possible to begin the conversation of how to put together a proper, fully-fledged, democratic federation.

YV: here was, undoubtedly, a degree of incompetence during the election campaign on behalf of the Green Partys leaders. However, the main lesson is that de-radicalising a formerly radical movement does not work. The German Greens have spent years trying to demonstrate to the German establishment that they are a safe pair of hands, that they can be trusted by the establishment, that the oligarchy should not fear them, that they are ready to govern with the Christian Democrats if they must. The result is that they had to adopt a conservative economic agenda that ditches the main tenets of the New Deal while keeping the name Green New Deal. In the end, they ended up a ordoliberals who wanted more money for recycling and some constraints on growth. Conservatives were not attracted to that (Why not vote for the real conservatives? they thought) while many radicals were put off.

YV: Yes, this election killed off any hope there was of a progressive turn in German politics after Angela Merkels departure. On the one hand, the complete control of the SPD by Olaf Scholz, the next Chancellor, guarantees that German social democracy will remain fully committed to stringent austerity for Germanys working class and a sad replication of Merkels variety of Christian Democracy. On the other, the entry of the FDP in government ensures that, even if Herr Scholz were to have an epiphany, the FDP will veto any progressives change in Berlins attitude toward both domestic and European politics. This is why DiEM25 is making the risky but important move of founding a new progressive party in Berlin on the 13thof November. Undoubtedly, our party will be small and must face an uphill struggle. But, given the ignominy of Die Linke and the rightist turn of the Greens, we decided that DiEM25 must have a voice in German politics which, even if faint at first, allows us to tell our story to the German progressives and to invite them to join hands with us because, let us be clear on this, nothing good can happen in Europe if it does not have a firm foundation in Europes powerhouse Germany.

YV: Once capitalism had its near-death experience in 2008, and the German banks went bust, Merkels administration put in place a sordid plan: To bail out the Frankfurt-based banks by transferring cynically the banks losses onto the shoulders of the weakest of Europes citizens. German workers had already shouldered huge levels of austerity, courtesy of both social democratic and Christian Democratic Chancellors and finance ministers. After 2009, it was the turn of the working and middle classes of South Europe to suffer the consequences. The countries of the former Yugoslavia, plus Bulgaria, suffered the indirect ill-effects of Mrs Merkels policies which I describe simply as generous socialism for the bankers and harsh austerity for everyone else. The only countries that did not completely collapse were the ones whose industry had been integrated into the German industrial machine (Poland, Hungary and Czechia) that was producing goods mainly for the Chinese market. And then, in 2015, came the influx of refugees where, after the end of Mrs Merkels two-week-long experiment with humanism (that is, after her own party forced her to abandon the open doors policy for Syrians), Berlin forged alliances with the most xenophobic politicians of the Western Balkans, along with my former comrades in the SYRIZA government, to instigate the crime against humanity and against the idea of a borderless Europe that is the ramshackle migration policy of locking innocent people up in Turkey, letting them perish in the Aegean Sea and, generally, subjecting them to studied inhumanity so that they can send a message to where they came from saying Stay away from Europe it is a cruel continenty. The problem with this alliance between Mrs Merkel and the ultra-right in the Western Balkans and beyond is that, in addition to being vile in itself, it poisoned politics and reinforced misanthropes across Europe its Eastern and South-eastern flanks in particular.

YV: It is precisely because the Left never recovered from its 1991 defeat, and studiously failed to create a transnational progressive politics that some of us banded together to form the Progressive International. As for Europe, the situation here is worse than anywhere across the planet. In Europe, the total defeat of the Left was due, in my estimation, to the decision of the Party of the European Left to turn down DiEM25s proposal of presenting Europeans in the European Parliament elections of 2019 a unified, cohesive, logical economic and political agenda. Why did they turn it down? Because they prioritised unity, i.e. running under the same umbrella, those who surrendered to the EU establishment (e.g., SYRIZA), those who sought an exit from the EU (e.g., Melenchon, Lafontain) and those who had no real view on the EU (e.g. Podemos). Except that this unity was useless as it was based on an incoherent message to the peoples of Europe. (How could it be different when parties so different in ethos and orientation run together?) My hope for the Progressive International, in Europe and elsewhere, is that it will not repeat the mistakes of the Party of the European Left and, instead, follow the example set by DiEM25. If it remains a loose confederacy of nation-state based parties, it too is doomed. DiEM25, and I personally, will do our utmost to prevent this.

YV: Central to the thesis that technofeudalism is distinct from capitalism is the observation that, following 2008, the rise of digital platforms, and more recently the pandemic, the two main drivers of capitalism are no longer central to the economic system: ProfitsandMarkets. Profit-seeking, of course, continues to drive most people. And markets are everywhere. However, the broad system we live in is no longer driven by private profits. Nor is, these days, the market the main mechanism for wealth extraction or creation.

What has replaced profits and markets? The short answer is: Central bank money has replaced capitalist profits as the systems fuel, and Big Techs digital platforms have replaced markets as the mechanism for value extraction.

Central bank money replaced profits as the systems driver: Profitability no longer drives the system, even though it remains the be-all-and-end-all for individual entrepreneurs. Indisputable evidence that central bank money, not profits, power the economic system is everywhere. A great example is what happened in London on August 12, 2020. It was the day markets learned that the British economy shrank disastrously and by far more than analysts had expected (more than 20% of national income had been lost in the first seven months of 2020). Upon hearing the grim news, financiers thought: Great! The Bank of England, panicking, will print even more pounds and channel them to us to buy shares. Time to buy shares!

This is just one of countless manifestations of a new global reality: In the United States and all over the West, central banks print money that financiers lend to corporations, which then use it to buy back their shares whose prices are thus decoupled from profits. The new barons, as a result, expand their fiefs, courtesy of state money,even if they never earn a dime of profit! Moreover, they dictate terms on the supposed Sovereign the central banks that keep them liquid. While the Fed, for example, prides itself over its power and independence, it is today utterly powerless to stop that which it started in 2008: printing money on behalf of bankers and corporates. Even if the Fed suspects that, in keeping the corporate barons liquid, it is precipitating inflation, it knows that ending the money printing will bring the house down. The terror of causing a bad debt and bankruptcy avalanche makes the Fed a hostage of its own decision to print and ensures that it will continue printing to keep the barons liquid. This has never happened before. Powerful central banks, that today keep the system going singlehandedly, have never wielded so little power. Only under feudalism did the Sovereign feel similarly subservient to its barons, while remaining responsible for keeping the whole edifice together.

Digital platforms are replacing markets:During the 20thCentury, and to this day, workers in large capitalist oligopolistic firms (like General Electric, Exxon-Mobil or General Motors) received approximately 80% of the companys income. Big Techs workers do not even collect 1% of their employers revenues. This is becausepaid labour performs only a fraction of the workthat Big Tech benefits from. Who performs the bulk of the work? Most of the rest of us! For[WS1]the first time in history, almost everyone produces for free (often enthusiastically) Big Techs capital stock (that is what it means to upload stuff on Facebook or move around while linked to Google Maps). That has never happened under capitalism. Key to understanding our new system is the realisation that digital platforms are not a new form of market. That when one enters Facebook as a user or Google as an employee, one exits the market and enters a new-fangled tech-fief.

What does this transformation of capitalism to technofeudalism mean for us all? Examples of the effects of technofeudalism include:

YV: On this huge question, allow me to refer you to my last book a political science fiction novel entitled ANOTHER NOW. In it, the plot and its characters serve the purpose of describing two things. First, how would things work (companies, housing, money, trade, democracy in the workplace, the region and the country, etc.) in a free democratic market society where all property is collectively owned, there are no stock exchanges and no commercial banks. Secondly, what kind of revolution might bring about such a socio-economic order? To answer these two questions, ANOTHER NOW imagines a global movement following the Crash of 2008 that rebelled in ways very different to those of the OCCUPY WALL STREET movement. Not wishing to offer more spoiler, I hope you allow me to say no more at this stage.

YV: It is a gimmick that will do precisely nothing to restore a modicum of tax justice to the world. Let me make this abundantly clear: Last year Amazon earned 44 billion in Europe of which it paid zero corporate tax. Under the new so-called 15% global corporate tax regime, guess how much Amazon will pay: Zero again! How come? Because the global deal, negotiated at the OECD, specifies a 15% tax on only 20% of a multinational companys global profits that accrue and here comes the fun part at a margin of above 8% above costs. But because Amazons accountants are good at exacerbating the costs, last year these margins were below 8%. Thus, once more, Amazon will pay no tax!

YV: The most important thing to remember here is that what the mainstream press refer to as trade wars between the United States and China are, in reality, class wars within the United States and China. In the United States, multinationals have been exporting jobs for years to China in order to squeeze both Chinese and American workers. Equally, in China, the growth model relies on huge investment (up to 50% of national income) which means that wages are squeezed beyond belief. While American and Chinese capitalists see their profits burgeon, and their governments squabble, it is the American and Chinese workers who fall prey to awful working lives and diminishing life prospects.

YV: After decades of globalisation based that stretched supply chains unbelievably, the Covid-19 disruption caused a sharp rise in transport costs, including the transport of oil and LNG. Coupled with some other random factors (e.g., very low wind powering the wind turbines of Northern Europe) and geopolitical brinkmanship (e.g., Russia temporarily restricting gas supplies to the EU to get its way with Nordstream 2), this blip in prices then sparked speculation: the usual suspects, making use of the huge quantities of money printed by the central banks, bought future supplies of energy and future cargo carrying capacity. The result? A temporary spike in prices is now turbocharged by speculation.

YV: No, not yet. But it may well play a role. Especially if we do not quickly introduce a carbon tax that is wholly re-distributed to the poorer Europeans.

YV: This is the great paradox of our species. Capitalism unleashed productive powers humanity did not even know it had. But, at the same time, capitalism created new forms of mind-blowing depravity that humanity had never suffered before, not even in the Middle Ages. I mention this because we are well familiar with the historic disconnect between humanitys wonderful capabilities and miserable outcomes. So, yes, I do believe we have the capacity to achieve common prosperity, that we have the technological skills to save the planet for climate catastrophe, and that we can rise up to the challenge of combining reason and ethics. But this is no guarantee, not even a hint, that we shall succeed.

In the final analysis, the whole thing boils down to the necessary and sufficient conditions for progressive change. The primary necessary condition is that we end capitalism. Tragically, this is not at all enough since the end of capitalism, as I argued above, is already happening because capitalism is begetting something worse than capitalism: technofeudalism. So, restating the primary necessary condition, our task is to struggle simultaneously against capitalism and against the new system that capitalism is morphing into under the guidance of Big Finance, Big Tech, Big Pharma and, as always, the military-industrial complex.

But even this is not enough: To synchronise technology with humanity, and reason with ethics, we need to democratise workplaces, to end labour by replacing it with automata that allow us to indulge our talents, to better ourselves, to find happiness without destroying the planet, to do creative work like artists, musicians and mathematicians for whom work is inseparable from the good life.

YV: It can help overcome nation-state based political parties, develop fully transnational movements and electoral vehicles, forge a Planetary Agenda, and unite us all into a struggle against the forces of reaction and oligarchy in every nook and every cranny of this Earth of ours.

This interview was originally published in Crotian at Vecernji List

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Yanis Varoufakis on why Croatia shouldn't adopt the Euro, German politics and much more - DiEM25

Hint from the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, to the effect that the federal government would introduce new taxes and levies to implement the 2022 budget is sending cold shivers down the spine of operators and have sent ripples across Nigerias manufacturing sector and other members of the organised private sector, writes Dike Onwuamaeze.

On Monday, December 13, the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, said, during a public hearing on the 2021 Finance Bill, which was organised by the House of Representatives Committee on Finance that the federal government would introduce new tariffs and levies in 2022 in the 2021 Finance Act as part of its reforms and amendments of the countrys tax laws.

Ahmed suggested that the antiquated stamp duties and Capital Gains Tax should be reviewed by the National Assembly stating, We prepared this draft bill (2021 Finance Act Bill) along five reform areas, the first is domestic revenue mobilisation; the second is tax administration and legislative drafting; the third is international taxation; the fourth is financial sector reforms and tax equity and the fifth is improving public financial management reform.

The provision in the draft bill is proposing to amend the CGT, Company Income Tax, Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) Establishment Act, Personal Income Tax, Stamp Duties Act and Tertiary Education Act, Value Added Tax (VAT), Insurance Police Trust Fund and the Fiscal Responsibility Act.

This is to amend the Police Trust Fund Act and the Nigerian Trust Fund Acts. The purpose is to empower the FIRS to collect the Nigerian trust fund levies on companies on behalf of the fund itself.Currently, because there is no such provision, the FIRS has been unable to start collecting on behalf of the fund. Also, it is to streamline the tax and the levy collection from the Nigerian companies in line with Mr. Presidents administration ease of doing business policy.

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, said that the 2021 Finance Bill would seek to introduce strategic and broadminded positive reforms that would engender best practices and guarantee the interests of the investing public and businesses.

Gbajabiamila noted that the bill would seek to statutorily check borrowing by local, states and federal governments, enhance transparency and accountability in the administration in various strata of tax and public revenue generation.He said: It is instructive to state that the essence of the 2021 bill is to further reposition our finance system to plug wastes, close openings for corruption, create opportunities for employment as well as stimulate stability and growth in our productive sectors, within the wider context of our quest for economic recovery in our country.

breathing spaceHowever, the Nigerian manufacturers and members of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria (OPSN) have asked the federal government for a breathing space and to spare business further taxation. They are saying almost in unison that any move by the government to increase taxation in whatever form or guises would be counterproductive and retard the contribution of the manufacturing sector to the GDP and cause a great setback on the ability of the real sector to support the poverty reduction/alleviation and job creation aspirations of President Muhammadu Buharis administration.

The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), stated unequivocally that manufacturers in the country have been groaning under multiple taxations from the three tiers of government. It also said that its members are quite anxious about the imminent ill-advised re-introduction of excise, as well as steep increase in rate of excise on some products, including carbonated and non-alcoholic drinks and tobacco products.

It pleaded that manufacturing businesses are yet to fully stabilise from the debilitating disruptive effect of COVID-19 pandemic, adding that the so-called relief funds from government has remained largely non-accessible to manufacturers. No thanks to the countrys illiquid foreign exchange market that cannot accommodate their demands for hard currencies on the official FX window.

The Director General of MAN, Mr. Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said last week: The tendency is (for government) to heed the advice from the World Bank and the like for more taxation in developing economies. But it has not considered that this has not led to appreciable growth in their economies. There is need for wisdom in gauging the times we are in and assessing the possible boomerang effects on our beleaguered socio-economic environment.

With low and worsening disposable income, heightening insecurity and anxiety, caution is the word.What could be within reasonable contemplation should be widening the tax net to capture the largely untaxed endeavours that ought to have been within the tax bracket.

I would want to believe that what the Honourable Minister (of Finance) was referring to is that the net will be expanded to capture those and not that exiting legitimate and diligent tax payers would be made to pay more or that additional taxes would be levied upon them. That will be counterproductive and the envisaged additional revenue may not be realized. Instead, we may start to witness dwindling profitability, higher rate of business failure and predisposition to tax evasion. This is not to mention the disincentive to local and foreign investment.

Speaking in the same vein last week, the Chairman of the OPSN, Mr. Taiwo Adeniyi said that the organization has deemed it necessary to once again share its perspective and position on salient national economic issues within the context of setting the countrys economic priorities right and avoiding actions or counter-policies that could negate the gains.

Adeniyi, who is also the President of NECA, said that members of the OPSN are; vehemently opposed to any attempt to further burden organised businesses in the guise of new taxes or levies at the three-tiers of government. Doing so will be counterproductive as this could further stifle the already burdened businesses, most of whom currently operate at less than 50 per cent capacity utilisation.

It will also further lead to an upsurge in unemployment rate with its attendant socio-economic consequences. We call on the National Assembly not to accommodate or insert provisions that could further burden organised businesses into bills presented to it. We wish to specifically draw the attention of the National Assembly to the Establishment of the Tertiary Hospital Development Fund Bill 2021, which among other things seek to impose one per cent tax on businesses.

Organised businesses are currently providing healthcare services for the staff through in-house hospitals, HMO providers or direct billing. It is unreasonable and will be an over-kill to still saddle the same organisations with the task of contributing to infrastructural development in the healthcare sector. Businesses are currently paying various percentages of their revenue to the Nigeria Social Insurance Trust Fund, Industrial Training Fund, National Pension Commission and other government agencies.

excise dutyAdeniyi also broached on the intention to reintroduce excise duty on carbonated drinks. He recalled that excise duties on carbonated drinks were suspended in 2009 during the global financial crisis to aid the sustainability of businesses. He, therefore, expressed concern that the federal government recently made pronouncements on reintroducing the excise duty on this class of products.

He said: We make bold to say that the economic situation which necessitated the suspension of the excise in 2009 has not abated. In fact, businesses currently face greater hardship than what obtained in 2009. The introduction of the tax will be counter-productive as it will lead to further stifling of businesses in carbonated dring industry.Globally, at a time when governments continue to provide incentives for industries to speed up recovery from the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and escalating costs, Nigeria cannot afford to be doing the exact opposite as manufacturers, across all product segments need a respite, especially in the light of the unprecedented increase in production and operating costs.

The chairman of the OPSN argued further that it is instructive to note that Nigerian manufacturers have been contending with the dislocations caused by the pandemic and the recession that followed; they are also facing serious crisis resulting from liquidity challenges in the foreign exchange market, which is impacting adversely on the cost of production; in addition, they are faced with intense pressure arising from numerous structural bottlenecks that are creating sustainability challenges for investors, especially those in the SME segment. Also of concern is significant spike in the cost of raw materials, cost of fund, high import duty, elevated energy cost, prohibitive cost of transportation and high cost of logistics/shipping.

We therefore, urge Government to jettison the idea of reintroducing the excise duty on carbonated drinks but continue to support and promote the industry to attain full recovery after the onslaught of the pandemic and position it to further accommodate the teeming unemployed Nigerian, particularly the youths.

Investment Friendly PolicyOn Thursday, December 16, the Sectorial Chairman of Non-Metallic Mineral Products Sectorial Group of Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Mr. Afam Mallinson Ukatu, returned on the same subject when he spoke to members of Commerce and Industry Correspondence Association of Nigeria at the Sheraton Hotel, Lagos.

Ukatu appealed to the government to prevail on the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to make an investment friendly monetary policy that would prevent the total collapse of manufacturing industries in Nigeria.He claimed that inadequate availability of FX has affected many industries and constrained them source FX at higher exchange rates from the parallel market at a rates that are 30 per cent or more above the official exchange in order to remain in production.

According to him, the manufacturing and steel industry is facing lots of problems, regarding accessibility to foreign exchange to buy raw materials spare parts, which he identified as what it takes to keep a manufacturing concern alive and kicking.

Ukatu, who is also the managing director/CEO, NISPO Porcelain Coy Limited, said: Your factory will be collapsing if you are not able to have access to FX to buy raw materials and spare parts. The MAN has been advocating that the CBN should create a window that can help genuine manufacturers to have access to FX with ease but to no avail.

Speaking on the same point, the Founder/Chief Executive Officer of Centre for the Promotion of Private Sector, Dr. Muda Yusuf, observed that the high import dependence of Nigerian manufacturing sector on imported raw materials exposed it to three major risks. These are sharp depreciation of the currency, liquidity crisis in the FX market, and volatility of FX rate, which create considerable uncertainty and unpredictability for investors.

Yusuf said that the impact of currency depreciation on the real sector and the Small and Mediun Enterprises include high cost of production, low sales and turnover because of the increase in price and effect on demand, erosion of profit margins because not all the additional cost can be passed on consumers and increase in business continuity risk for some segments of manufacturing.

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Manufacturers: Burden of Increased TaxesTHISDAYLIVE - THISDAY Newspapers

This year, Kazakhstan is marking the 30th anniversary of its independence.

Since 1991, the country has risen from relative obscurity and placed itself firmly on the world stage, with a steady economy and according to the IMF GDP predicted to climb further over the next few years.

Modern-day Kazakhstan has little in common with its storybook past, when nomadic peoples swept across the vast steppes and its economy hinged on the ancient Silk Routes.

Now the economic powerhouse of Central Asia, accounting for more than half of the regions GDP, the ninth-largest country in the world has been transformed thanks in part to its large mineral reserves and in part to a series of comprehensive reforms, and its capital, Nur-Sultan, has become a thoroughly modern metropolis.

Sustained, diversified and dynamic growth throughout the nation remains one of the core goals for the country, which hopes to become one of the 30 most developed countries in the world by 2050.

One of the former Soviet republics worst affected by the Unions collapse, Kazakhstan set upon surprisingly bold and ambitious reforms in the early 1990s. These were designed and conducted by the first president Elbasy Nursultan Nazarbayev, to encourage European, American and Asian companies to invest in what at the time was a largely struggling economy.

Foreign companies were initially drawn to Kazakhstan for its mineral resources, but many have since branched out into other industries. Over the 30 years of independence, the country has attracted more than $380 billion in foreign investment, which makes it the largest per capita recipient among the CIS countries.

The ongoing repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic have meant a dramatic global slowdown in transboundary investment flows a decrease of 35 per cent worldwide in 2020 but Kazakhstans figures have since bounced back, thanks to a stimulus package of $4,1 billion in 2020.

In the first half of 2021, foreign direct investment in the country amounted to $11,1 billion, a 30 per cent increase on the same period in 2020.

The government prioritises supporting investors, said Kazakhstans president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in a recent meeting with leaders of international investment companies. We provided tailored and wide-ranging support to each investor.

In addition to the governments anti-crisis measures, an important role was played by KAZAKH INVEST, a national company set up by the government in 2017, with a view to attracting major international corporations to the country. Its role is two-fold: to demonstrate Kazakhstans potential across a range of industries, and to support investors at every step of the journey.

In short, it operates as a single negotiator on behalf of the Kazakh government in discussing prospects and conditions for the implementation of investment projects. The company also promotes sustainable socio-economic development by attracting foreign investment in priority sectors.

As a one-stop shop for investors on the provision of public services, KAZAKH INVEST monitors and supports the progress of investment projects and serves as a hotline for investors, providing 24/7 service support.

The companys remit is to provide operational help, including the prompt resolution of any administrative issues, such as those dealing with visas, migration, customs, advising on logistics and project implementation procedures. It is currently providing support and practical help to 466 projects, which have so far created more than 87,000 jobs. In 2021, 45 investment projects involving international collaboration have been commissioned. These have raised $3,5 billion and created around 4,800 jobs.

Multinationals taking part in these initiatives include Italian investor ENI, one of the top international investors in oil, gas and renewable energy in the country; French company Air Liquide, which has invested in the transfer of technology in the petrochemical industry; German investors Linde, who work in the sphere of technical gases, and many others.

One of the objectives of KAZAKH INVEST is to showcase investment opportunities across a wide range of industries. As a huge country with a variety of terrains and a low population density, Kazakhstan has an immense number of agricultural resources. Thanks to the countrys strategic geographical location and an access to the markets of China, Russia and the Middle East, Kazakhstan has unique potential for agribusiness, including production and processing of both livestock and vegetables.

Tied to this, the government is injecting funds via loans and tax incentives into mechanical engineering, principally for the production of agricultural machinery and tractors. Engineering for the auto industry and electrical equipment has also been prioritised.

Kazakhstans petrochemical industry has gone from strength to strength in recent years, with the countrys oil reserves considered the 12th most important in the world. State support measures in the sector include state-regulated prices for industrial consumers.

Other regional industries already familiar to multinationals include mining and metallurgy (Kazakhstan ranks among the top countries for production of copper, gold, uranium, chromium, zinc and tungsten); infrastructure the Belt and Road initiative creates an overland trade route between China and Europe, almost halving transit times and trade.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a legislative framework has been developed to exempt micro and small businesses from paying income tax for a period of three years, up to and including 2023. A legislative framework has been developed to exempt micro and small businesses from paying income tax for a period of three years, up to and including 2023.

Thirteen Special Economic Zones have been created, offering favourable taxation, and an Investment Agreement has been introduced to provide special conditions for strategic investors. The country as a whole has seen changes to the law to help businesses, improvements in online services and an overhaul of the permit system.

International consulting companies, including the Big Four (PwC, Deloitte, EY and KPMG) have been drafted in to help prepare investment proposals, and the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), which plays a major role in attracting financial investment, has English as its official language and provides the court system based on the principles of common law.

In order to promote these initiatives, Kazakh Invest held 10 online and offline investment events in 2021 for potential investors from the US, Switzerland, Belgium, Luxembourg, Spain, South Korea, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia and other countries. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Deputy Prime Minister - Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan Mukhtar Tileuberdi, and others, chaired the events.

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Kazakhstan builds on recent success to attract further foreign investment - Euronews

The Biden administration is working to strengthen global partnerships that will help keep America safe and protect both U.S. and allies national security interests.

While many other nations have raised doubts about the U.S. and voiced their need to reassess their partnerships in lieu of changing global dynamics,Egypthas reinforcedits strong bondswith Washington and coordinatedjointresponses tonew global economic and environmental challenges, as wellasincreasing threats in the Middle East.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony BlinkenAntony BlinkenThe Hill's Morning Report - Presented by Charter Communications - Dem wheels wobble on BBB train; Fed rate hikes in '22 Overnight Defense & National Security Senate passes sweeping defense bill Hillicon Valley Here come the state-sponsored hackers MORE and Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry recently concluded the U.S.-Egypt Strategic Dialogue, declaring that our 100-year partnership has never been stronger or more vital to our shared security andsocio-economic interests.

In recent months, when intense fighting broke out between Israel and Hamas, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and President BidenJoe BidenFlorida man kicked off United flight for using underwear as mask in protest On The Money Presented by Citi Build Back Better...late than never? Overnight Energy & Environment Biden releases lead plan MORE worked together to broker a ceasefire and commit to humanitarian aid andreconstructionin Gaza.Today, Egypt plays an essential role in continuing to lock the bolts of tranquility as a prelude to launching serious peace efforts.

With parliamentary elections scheduled in Libya on Dec. 24, Egyptplayeda critical role in bringing all sides together. In June, as the Berlin Summit discussions on the future of Libya broke down threatening Decembers elections Egypt and the U.S.worked quickly toensure a successful Paris Summitand are working together to keep theelectionsprocess on trackand on time.

In August,as the political and economic crisis in Lebanon sparked warnings of anarchy, Egypt and the U.S. worked to reach agreement with neighboring countries to allow Egypt to supply crucially needed gas to Lebanon to supportand hold backhospitals, businesses and government servicesfrom the brink of collapse.

In September, after the risks and uncertainties raisedbythe U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Egypts Ministry of Defense and the U.S. militarys Central Command (CENTCOM) coordinated 21 nations in joint air, land and sea operations in the Eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea a statement to all that Egypt, the U.S. and our allies stand prepared to protect peace and stability together.

Last month at the U.N. Climate ChangeSummit(COP26), Egypt stood alongsidetheU.S. and other nations to announce our commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Egypts selection to lead climate change efforts for the next year leading up to COP27 inEgypts Red Sea resort of Sharm El Sheikh is telling and stands as a clear testament to the international confidence in todays new progressive Egypt.

Egypts joint efforts internationally with the United States are matched by significant progress that President Sisi has been leading at home, aimed at protecting lives and human rightsin a comprehensive, balanced fashionforall Egyptians.

The promotion of human rights in Egypt is on a promising trajectory. Recently, we launched a five-yearNational Strategy for Human Rights(2021-2026)that acknowledges and identifies our own imperfections, and vows to redress as itreinforcesour commitment toover100 millionEgyptianswho,like Americans, have a right tolife, the most sacred of rights, and to development,health care, affordable housing, social security and economic opportunity. This plan establishesannualcivil, political, social, cultural and economictargetsin accordance with the U.N. Human Rights Council to achieve and protect critical freedoms for all Egyptians.

On the economic front,Egypt also has introduced broad economic reforms across our government that have allowed us to achieve a3.6percent growth rateduring a pandemic year and to generate increased foreign investment while othersin our region have struggled. International financial institutions and credit-rating agencies project a stable economic outlook for Egypt and continued growth at an average of 5.5 percent. The first quarter of the current fiscal year is already marked by an impressive 9.8 percent growth rate.

There clearly is more work to be done, as both the U.S. and Egypt strive to address national and international priorities. As we move forward together tomark and celebrate our centennial of formal relations in 2022,it is critical that the leadership in Washington, in Congress and in the Biden administration continue to develop a full appreciation for the value of the EgyptU.S. partnership. Anything lessrisks underminingthe real progress we have made together, and overlookingsocial andeconomic opportunitiesthat can benefitbothnations.

Now is the time for the U.S. and Egypt to come together and build on a common legacy developed over the last 100 years, in which both of our countries can take pride. By working together on new, protracted challenges of national security, socio-economic and geopolitical interests, we will truly build an even better legacy for the next century.

Motaz Zahran is Egypts Ambassador to the United States. He formerly served as the countrys assistant foreign minister and chief of Cabinet at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Cairo, and as ambassador to Canada.

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Egypt-U.S. relations at 100 years: A partnership that is more vital than ever | TheHill - The Hill

COMMUNIQUE

Adopted by the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union (AU) at its 1055th meeting held at Ministerial level on 14 December 2021 on the theme: Interdependence between Peace, Security and Development:

The Peace and Security Council,

Recalling its previous decisions and pronouncements on the interdependence between peace, security and development, and related themes, particularly, Communiques [PSC/PR/COMM. (CMLXXV)] adopted at its 975th meeting held on 27 January 2021 and [PSC/PR/COMM. 1 (DCCCLXXXIII)] adopted at its 883rd meeting held at the Ministerial level, in New York, on 27 September 2019;

Also recalling the OAU/AU 50th Anniversary Solemn Declaration, in which the Heads of State and Government pledged their determination to achieve the goal of a conflict-free Continent, to make peace a reality for all of Africas citizens and not to bequeath the burden of conflicts to future generations;

Reaffirming its commitment to Agenda 2063, particularly its flagship project of Silencing the Guns by 2030, aimed at achieving a conflict-free Africa, ridding the Continent of wars, violent conflicts and humanitarian disasters in order to attain peace and create conducive conditions for development across the Continent;

Faithful to the provisions of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union, particularly Articles 3 and 4 stipulating, respectively, the objectives and the guiding principles of the PSC;

Expressing concern over the continued prevalence of violent conflict and the myriad threats to peace and security in Africa which are contributing to the socio-economic decline in the Continent;

Acknowledging the devastating socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Member States, particularly those already affected by, among others, travel bans, the scourge of armed conflict, terrorism and violent extremism, economic sanctions, and climate change;

Cognizant of the fact that full operationalization of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA) are imperative for the prevention of conflicts and promotion of sustainable peace and stability, collective security, good governance, and socio-economic development in the Continent;

Noting the opening remarks by H.E. Demeke Mekonnen, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia as Chairperson of the AU PSC for December 2021, and the statement by H.E. Ambassador Bankole Adeoye, AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security; and also noting the statements by H.E. Ms. Hannah Tetteh, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Office to the African Union, as well as by the representatives of the AU Development Agency-NEPAD and the African Development Bank (ADB);

Reaffirming its solidarity with the Governments and people of Member States adversely affected by conflict and other threats to peace, security and development; expressing its unwavering commitment to silencing the guns in Africa by 2030, to completing the process of decolonization on the Continent, to eradicating terrorism and related scourges, to rejecting foreign interventions in the internal affairs of African States and emphasizing the imperative of respecting their respective sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity;

Reaffirming the inalienable right of all peoples to security, well-being, development and sovereignty over their natural resources, including the people of Non-Self-governing Territories under colonial occupation; and recalling the responsibility of the international community in ensuring the protection of their fundamental rights, including the imprescriptible right to self-determination, in accordance with the United Nations Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights and the African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights.

Acting under Article 7 of its Protocol, the Peace and Security Council:

Underscores the need for an integrated, inclusive and comprehensive approach in addressing the peace, security and development nexus in order to mitigate against the perpetuation of violent conflicts and the resulting societal fragmentation, destruction of vital infrastructure, state collapse and socio-economic decline;

Emphasizes the need for strengthening early warning mechanisms to ensure timely response and deployment of preventive diplomacy instruments by the Council to assist affected Member States in effectively addressing potential conflicts before their escalation into full-blown violence;

Reiterates its call to all Member States to redouble their efforts towards the implementation of the AU Master Roadmap for Silencing the Guns and its Monitoring and Evaluation Framework to ensure the nexus between peace, security and development is realized;

Underlines the imperative of sustained efforts towards comprehensively addressing the fundamental root causes of conflict in order to end current conflicts, avoid relapses and create conducive conditions for durable peace, security and sustainable development;

Reiterates its call for redoubled efforts in mobilizing the required resources for the AU Post-Conflict Reconstruction and Development (PCRD) and the AU PCRD centre in Cairo, Egypt, including predictable and sustainable funding to ensure effective AU support to Member States in political transition and post-conflict situations, based on their specific needs and priorities;

Highlights the critical role of the Regional Economic Communities and Regional Mechanisms for conflict prevention, management and resolution (RECs/RMs) in responding to conflicts in their geographical areas of jurisdiction, as well as in achieving regional economic integration and development objectives in line with the principles of subsidiarity, complementarity and comparative advantages;

Underscores the potential creativity, energy and innovative capabilities of the African youth, especially the importance of these to the development transformation of the Continent; and notes, in this regard, the need to harness this potential of the African youth through meaningful engagement and development initiatives;

Emphasizes the need to strengthen institutions, deepen democracy, and institute efficient political and economic management of the state in order to realize the aspirations of Agenda 2063 and improve the living standards of African people, and in this regard, stresses the importance of concerted efforts in creating inclusive societies and ensuring participation of women and youth in decision-making processes related to peace, security and development;

Underscores the importance of reviewing existing policy instruments in order to ensure that they effectively respond to the myriad threats to peace, security and development in the Continent, and the importance for Member States to adhere to democratic ideals, including the rule of law;

Underlines the need for Member States to enshrine values that emphasize reconciliation and justice in order to fight impunity and promote mutual respect and tolerance of diversity, and in this regard, underscores the need for redoubling efforts towards the promotion of fairness, impartiality, accountability and pluralism;

Encourages Member States to create conducive conditions for informal economies as one of the means to achieve economic growth and sustainable development, and also to create appropriate spaces for collaboration between the public and political parties, the private sector and civil society, in mapping out national development priorities and their implementation;

Reiterate its call to the international community for debt relief, restructuring and cancellation in favour of Member States which are affected by the scourges of conflict, terrorism and violent extremism, and other threats to peace, security and development, as well as losses of revenues incurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic, to ensure that these Member States increase their liquidity and respond to socio-economic development imperatives and pave the way for economic recovery;

Underlines the importance of strengthening coordination amongst all relevant stakeholders, including Member States, RECs/RMs and the AU Commission, and capacitating these stakeholders in order for them to effectively lend themselves to the demanding tasks of attaining durable peace, security and sustainable development; and stresses the need to share experiences and lessons from past interventions at the national, regional and Continental levels;

Emphasizes the need to also capacitate existing ad-hoc regional arrangements and mechanisms in their endeavours to address security challenges, including terrorism, transnational organized crime, trafficking, and illegal exploitation and trade of natural resources; and in this regard, reaffirms its call for the full operationalization of the African Standby Force (ASF) to enable rapid deployment in response to emerging security threats and conflicts;

Encourages Member States, working in close collaboration with RECs/RMs, to redouble efforts towards curtailing the circulation and proliferation of illicit small and light weapons, and in this regard, stresses the importance of continued collaboration between Member States, RECs/RMs and all relevant stakeholders on efforts aimed at securing shared borders;

Calls for continued collaboration between the AU Commission, AUDA-NEPAD, African Development Bank and the broader international community on strategies to overcome socio-economic challenges and address human security;

Welcomes the convening of the Tana Forum High Level Forum on Security in Africa taking place in Ethiopia and the Aswan Forum for Sustainable Peace and Development in Egypt and looks forward to the holding of the Tana Forum and the third edition of Aswan Forum in 2022;

Decides to remain actively seized of the matter.

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Communique of the 1055th meeting of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) held at Ministerial level on 14 December 2021 on the theme:...