Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

Geneva The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is today appealing for more than USD 589 million to respond to the urgent humanitarian and protection needs of over 3.6 million crisis-affected persons and to strengthen the resilience and recovery of communities both in Afghanistan and in six neighbouring countries.

IOMs revisedComprehensive Action Plan (CAP) for Afghanistan and Neighbouring Countriesbuilds on its expertise in responding to migration and displacement crises and strengthening integrated approaches to migration management, governance and sustainable development, as well as on its operational presence in Afghanistan and in all neighbouring countries.

The ongoing crisis in Afghanistan is intensifying humanitarian needs and increasing displacement risks both inside the country, as well as across borders to countries in the region, said Ugochi Daniels, IOM Deputy Director General for Operations.

Nearly six months after the August 2021 political upheaval and resulting political transition, more than half of the Afghan population are now in need of humanitarian assistance, which is 30 per cent more than last year. This means Afghanistan faces a real risk of systemic collapse and humanitarian catastrophe, as nearly all Afghans have now plunged into poverty.

As projected when IOMs CAP for Afghanistan and neighbouring countries was initially launched in September 2021, the political, social and economic shocks in Afghanistan have reverberated across the country and the region.

As a result, more than 700,000 Afghans were driven into displacement in 2021, adding to around 5.5 million people already in protracted displacement by mid-August 2021. Afghans, and in particular women and girls, are facing increasing vulnerabilities and protection risks.In addition, a trend of increased cross-border mobility dynamics has been observed in the past year. Given the risk of further deterioration of the socio-economic and security situation in Afghanistan, internal displacement and cross-border movements, mainly to Iran and Pakistan, are likely to continue in the coming months.

The sheer level of internal displacement, coupled with increasing population movements across the region, as well as the higher than usual rates of cross-border returns observed in the past few months, have required IOM to further strengthen its regional approach to the crisis and, alongside international partners, to review the scope of the response and related funding requirements for the coming years.

In fact, as needs are growing, a failure to sustain and improve access to essential services and restore livelihoods, alongside the need to effectively address the vulnerabilities of populations affected by the crisis, will only increase displacement trends and population outflows within and across borders.

Without this latest comprehensive regional* response which applies a mobility lens to combine rapid humanitarian action with mid-to longer-term development planning, DDG Daniels said economic and social conditions in Afghanistan will continue to spiral downwards and risk further wiping out development gains made over the past 20 years.

In the months following events in August 2021, IOM has continued to deliver life-saving humanitarian and protection assistance to Afghan populations in need and provided early recovery and livelihood support to communities through area-based programming.

In addition, IOM has also scaled up its operational capacities both in-country and in the region to enhance the regional understanding and response to the crisis. A total of approximately 600,000 individuals were reached with IOM assistance in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries between August and December 2021. Among these, more than 260,000 vulnerable Afghan returnees were provided with multi-sectoral assistance at key border crossings and IOM reception and transit centres.

As the second-largest provider of emergency shelter and non-food items in Afghanistan, IOM has been able to distribute more than 196,000 winterization assistance to help displaced Afghan populations withstand the harsh weather conditions.

IOMs health operations, active in 12 out of 34 provinces in Afghanistan, continue to provide healthcare including COVID-19 vaccination efforts to some of the hardest-to-reach populations, who in some cases had received no assistance in the decades before the arrival of IOMs teams.

Through our flagship Displacement Tracking Matrix, we are operational in all 34 provinces of the country and can now systematically monitor internal as well as cross-border population movements, said Stuart Simpson, IOM Chief of Mission in Afghanistan.

Simpson said that IOM has adapted its data collection methods to ensure that information can be collected safely and has expanded its capacity throughout the region. Additionally, IOM has been working on developing a comprehensive analysis of movements throughout the region and has now started disseminating its information products with pertinent stakeholders to contribute to a better understanding of regional mobility dynamics and a more informed response.Regional mobility dynamics will continue to guide IOMs work in Afghanistan and the neighbouring countries and will enable strengthened collaboration with government institutions in the region and local communities to address drivers of migration and displacement, mitigate the mid-term impact of the crisis on societies, and support recovery and resilience for longer-term sustainable development.

Download the action plan here.

* Targeted countries: Afghanistan, Iran (Islamic Republic of), Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

IOMs Global Crisis Response Platform provides an overview of IOMs plans and funding requirements to respond to the evolving needs and aspirations of those impacted by, or at risk of, crisis and displacement in 2022 and beyond. The Platform is regularly updated as crises evolve, and new situations emerge.

***

For more information, please contact:

In Geneva: Paul Dillon, Email: pdillon@iom.int, Tel: + 41 79 636 9874

In Bangkok: Itayi Viriri, Email: iviriri@iom.int, Tel: +66 65 939 0934

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IOM Comprehensive Action Plan Calls for USD 589 Million to Support Afghanistan and Neighbouring Countries - International Organization for Migration

By Darshan Sankhala

The budget session of 2022 was revolutionary on many dimensions, with long-lasting effects on the future of the economy. The infrastructure push will be regarded as a historical one, but there is an equally important event that will become a milestone in socio-economic decision making.

Deeming cryptocurrencies as digital assets and a 30% transaction tax on withdrawal are much-needed steps from an economics point of view though they havent wooed many people, especially the youth. Let us understand why the Indian Government and the global community at large are approaching cryptocurrencies in a calculated manner.

Firstly, crypto means hidden, and the entire USP for cryptocurrencies is decentralization i.e. no government involvement. Crypto evangelists argue that the government money isnt stable due to currency trading touching the $7 trillion mark, thereby taking away the stability it used to promise. However, this doesnt mean that the greenback can be replaced by Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. Remember, the currency is nothing but a logistical agreement governing the transfer of value against a stable entity. Gold has been the standard for printing money since times immemorial, and cryptocurrencies dont serve the purpose of money.

Bitcoin is far more volatile than the Dollar, and thus, it can be a disaster for people who offer products or services in exchange for money. Imagine selling a house for 1 Bitcoin that could buy you three sedans at the time of selling, and the next day, it can only buy you a cup of coffee.

Money can only guarantee supply or stability, so the cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin will fail in terms of supply, making their prices volatile. This will make crypto unsuitable to serve as money, and thus, the governments move to define it as a digital asset is technically and logically true.

Marketed as the future currency, crypto aims at removing the traceability and accountability out of economics, thereby giving free heaven to do almost anything. This makes cryptocurrencies sound revolutionary in terms of decentralization, but it doesnt transfer the power from the government to users. Instead, it aims to completely blackout the democratically elected governments to track financial activities.

This loophole can not only sabotage taxation regimes but shield all the illegal activities, including terrorism, human trafficking, cybercrimes, money laundering, narco-terrorism, and extortion. This will become a prime tool for criminals and terrorists to mobilize their infrastructure without any fear of law enforcement agencies tracking them.

Crypto sounds promising only to people who dont understand what money actually means and its role in economics. If crypto actually replaced the Dollar, it would result in the collapse of not only the US economy but the entire world economy since it is the global reserve currency. At the same time, there are cases like Africrypt where two brothers got away with $3.6 billion worth of Bitcoin from their platform users. Thus, the lack of accountability can backfire, thereby diluting the very basics of currencies- trust.

The 30% tax rate on transactions may not sound great to unsuspecting youth, but it is a smarter move when compared to completely banning it like many other countries. Countries like El Salvador or MNCs accepting cryptocurrencies should not be taken as a trust indicator or approval of its feasibility since putting governments outside of the equation and dismantling the basics of economics at the cost of unlawful activities cannot be condoned by any sane person. This is indeed a wise decision, and I find that though it came a bit late, it should be welcomed by every citizen with open hands.

(The author is an entrepreneur, filmmaker and founder of RolBol.Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of the Financial Express Online.)

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Crypto taxes in Budget 2022: Better late than never - The Financial Express

Politics should learn lessons about ethics and economics of people's welfare and use the power it has gained, towards the common goal of purity, peace and prosperity, says Rajyogi Brahmakumar Nikunj ji

According to the well-established political practise, every elected government in a country has to present its annual budget to the legislature to which it is responsible. Following this practise, the government of India also has been presenting its annual Budget, year after year. This time, the government presented it after curiosity had been raised about a new approach on account of statements issued by the Prime Minister with regards to the pandemic situation worldwide. After the budget was presented to the Parliament, different political parties and different sections of the society reacted to it in a varied manner. While offering their comments, most of the political parties or persons generally recognise that the budget proposals presented by the party in power are based on the socio-economic philosophy, politico-economic policy and fiscal strategy of the leaders of the party, particularly its finance minister and the Prime Minister.

It is, however, hardly recognised that the socio-economic philosophy or the fiscal policy, in turn, is based on the philosophy of life, the world-view and the system of ethical values reflected by the Constitution of the party or made manifest in the aims and objects of the party as interpreted by its present leaders in the light of their world-view or their conception of personal and social ethics. Thus, a budget presented by the finance minister of a political party, having a particular ideology, will be formulated with their party ethics, philosophy of life, the economic interpretation of history and socialistic view of society and also of the means of production and distribution. This will further be influenced by the finance minister's worldview and his/her personal choice of an idol or leader as his guiding star from among all the luminaries.

Compared to this, the budget presented by the finance minister of some other country in some other continent will have a different philosophy of life and society and a different ethical and world-view as its motivating force. Considered in this light, it can be understood that economics or finance cannot be divorced from the philosophy of life and system of ethics, or, to put it in more clear words, it cannot be alienated from spirituality and morality. It, therefore, brings out the necessity of having a proper world-view, a correct philosophy of life and a right ethical system. This is as much in one's own interest as it is beneficial for society as a whole and is of added significance if an individual is devoted to social service.

In the context of the budget and the formulation of the financial policy of a nation, it becomes all the more important than the one who has his mind anchored in moral values and has cultivated a spiritual outlook, he alone should formulate the budget for he alone would be able to formulate one that reflects such values as compassion for the weak, and overall welfare of the country. Today we are witnessing the fall of many governments, empires, kingships, democracies across the world. The reason behind their collapse is that the values and aims of both the leaders and people are not fair.

The seed of difficulties in our system is the lack of awareness and practice of values such as cooperation, honesty, serving, self-examination and self-discipline. This is mainly because since childhood we have been taught to compete fiercely to succeed rather than to develop individual talents to complement each other; to possess and accumulate more as a means of security rather than sharing our resources and realising that security comes when there is unity, a sense of belonging among everyone in the society. This ignorance towards values brings sufferings to humanity due to which vices are created bringing further misery to our lives. It would thus be wrong for politics to use religion, culture and economics for selfish ends or to satisfy one's hunger for power. Instead, it should learn its lessons from the ethics and economics of people's welfare and use the power it has gained, towards the common goal of purity, peace and prosperity.

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Philosophy of life - Daily Pioneer

Heterogeneity of COVID-19 cases and deaths around the world: what can explain it?

Table1 indicates that the pandemic of COVID-19 is heterogeneous around regions of the world. Figure1 also shows that there is a strong and significant correlation between HDI and globalisation (with an increase in trade and tourism as proxy indicators) and a corresponding strong and significant correlation with COVID-19 burden.

Human development index and its correlates associated with COVID-19 in 189 countries*

Globalisation and pandemics interact in various ways, including through international trade and mobility, which can lead to multiple waves of infections [11]. In at least the first waves of the pandemic, countries with high import and export of consumer goods, food products and tourism have high number of cases, severe cases, deaths and CFRs. Countries with high HDI are at a higher risk of importing (and exporting) COVID-19 due to high mobility linked to trade and tourism, which are drivers of the economy. These may have led to multiple introductions of COVID-19 into these countries before border closures.

The COVID-19 pandemic was first identified in China, which is central to the global network of trade, from where it spread to all parts of the world, especially those countries with strong links with China [12]. The epidemic then spread to Europe. There is very strong regional dimension to manufacturing and trading, which could be facilitate the spread of the virus. China is the heart of Factory Asia; Italy is in the heart of Factory Europe; the United States is the heart of Factory North America; and Brazil is the heart of Factory Latin America [13]. These are the countries most affected by COVID-19 during the first wave of the pandemic [2, 3, 14].

It is also important to note that two-third of the countries currently reporting more than a million cases are middle-income countries (MICs), which are not only major emerging market economies but also regional political powers, including the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa) [3, 15]. These countries participate in the global economy, with business travellers and tourists. They also have good domestic transportation networks that facilitate the internal spread of the virus. The strategies that helped these countries to become emerging markets also put them at greater risk for importing and spreading COVID-19 due to their connectivity to the rest of the world.

In addition, countries with high HDI may be more significantly impacted by COVID-19 due to the higher proportion of the elderly and higher rates of non-communicable diseases. Figure 1 shows that there is a strong and significant correlation between HDI and demographic transition (high proportion of old-age population) and epidemiologic transition (high proportion of the population with non-communicable diseases). Countries with a higher proportion of people older than 65years and NCDs (compared to communicable diseases) have higher burden of COVID-19 [16,17,18,19,20]. Evidence has consistently shown a higher risk of severe COVID-19 in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions [21,22,23,24,25]. CFR is age-dependent; it is highest in persons aged 85years (10 to 27%), followed by those among persons aged 6584years (3 to 11%), and those among persons aged 55-64years (1 to 3%) [26].

On the other hand, regions and countries with low HDI have, to date, experienced less severe epidemics. For instance, as of January 12, 2022, the African region has recorded about 10.3 million cases and 233,000 deaths far lower than other regions of the world (Table 1) [27]. These might be due to lower testing rates in Africa, where only 6.5% of the population has been tested for the virus [14, 28], and a greater proportion of infections may remain asymptomatic [29]. Indeed, the results from sero-surveys in Africa show that more than 80% of people infected with the virus were asymptomatic compared to an estimated 40-50% asymptomatic infections in HICs [30, 31]. Moreover, there is a weak vital registration system in the region indicating that reports might be underestimating and underreporting the disease burden [32]. However, does this fully explain the differences observed between Africa and Europe or the Americas?

Other possible factors that may explain the lower rates of cases and deaths in Africa include: (1) Africa is less internationally connected than other regions; (2) the imposition of early strict lockdowns in many African countries, at a time when case numbers were relatively small, limited the number of imported cases further [2, 33, 34]; (3) relatively poor road network has also limited the transmission of the virus to and in rural areas [35]; (4) a significant proportion of the population resides in rural areas while those in urban areas spend a lot of their time mostly outdoors; (5) only about 3% of Africans are over the age of 65 (so only a small proportion are at risk of severe COVID-19) [36]; (6) lower prevalence of NCDs, as disease burden in Africa comes from infectious causes, including coronaviruses, which may also have cross-immunity that may reduce the risk of developing symptomatic cases [37]; and (7) relative high temperature (a major source of vitamin D which influences COVID-19 infection and mortality) in the region may limit the spread of the virus [38, 39]. We argue that a combination of all these factors might explain the lower COVID-19 burden in Africa.

The early and timely efforts by African leaders should not be underestimated. The African Union, African CDC, and WHO convened an emergency meeting of all African ministers of health to establish an African taskforce to develop and implement a coordinated continent-wide strategy focusing on: laboratory; surveillance; infection prevention and control; clinical treatment of people with severe COVID-19; risk communication; and supply chain management [40]. In April 2021, African Union and Africa CDC launched the Partnerships for African Vaccine Manufacturing (PAVM), framework to expanding Africas vaccine manufacturing capacity for health security [41].

Figures 2 and 3 illustrate the variability of cases and deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic across high-income countries (HICs). Contrary to the overall positive correlation between high HDI and cases, deaths and fatality rates due to COVID-19, there are outlier HICs, which have been able to control the epidemic. Several HICs, such as New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Japan, Denmark, Iceland, and Norway, managed to contain their epidemics (Figs. 2 and 3) [15, 42, 43]. It is important to note that most of these countries (especially the island states) have far less cross-border mobility than other HICs.

Scatter plot of COVID-19 cases per million population in countries with high human development index (>0.70)

Scatter plot of COVID-19 deaths per million population in countries with high human development index (>0.70)

HICs that have been successful at controlling their epidemics have similar characteristics, which are related to governance of the response [44], synergy between UHC and GHS, and existing relative socio-economic equity in the country. Governance and leadership is a crucial factor to explain the heterogeneity of the epidemic among countries with high HDI [45]. There has been substantial variation in the nature and timing of the public health responses implemented [46]. Adaptable and agile governments seem better able to respond to their epidemics [47, 48]. Countries that have fared the best are the ones with good governance and public support [49]. Countries with an absence of coherent leadership and social trust have worse outcomes than countries with collective action, whether in a democracy or autocracy, and rapid mobilisation of resources [50]. The erosion of trust in the United States government has hurt the countrys ability to respond to the COVID-19 crisis [51, 52]. The editors of the New England Journal of Medicine argued that the COVID-19 crisis has produced a test of leadership; but, the leaders in the United States had failed that test [47].

COVID-19 has exposed the fragility of health systems, not only in the public health and primary care, but also in acute and long-term care systems [49]. Fragmentation of health systems, defined here to mean inadequate synergy and/ or integration between GHS and UHC, is typical of countries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Even though GHS and UHC agendas are convergent and interdependent, they tend to have different policies and practices [53]. The United States has the highest index for GHS preparedness; however, it has reported the worlds highest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths due to its greatly fragmented health system [54, 55]. Countries with health systems and policies that are able to integrate International Health Regulations (IHR) core capacities with primary health care (PHC) services have been effective at mitigating the effects of COVID-19 [50, 53]. Australia has been able to control its COVID-19 epidemic through a comprehensive primary care response, including protection of vulnerable people, provision of treatment and support services to affected people, continuity of regular healthcare services, protection and support of PHC workers and primary care services, and provision of mental health services to the community and the primary healthcare workforce [56]. Strict implementation of public health and social intervention together with UHC systems have ensured swift control of the epidemics in Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand [57].

The heterogeneity of cases and deaths, due to COVID-19, is also explained by differences in levels of socio-economic inequalities, which increase susceptibility to acquiring the infection and disease progression as well as worsening of health outcomes [58]. COVID-19 has been a stress test for public services and social protection systems. There is a higher burden of COVID-19 in Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic individuals due to socio-economic inequities in HICs [59, 60]. Poor people are more likely to live in overcrowded accommodation, are more likely to have unstable work conditions and incomes, have comorbidities associated with poverty and precarious living conditions, and reduced access to health care [59].

The epidemiology of COVID-19 is also variable across MICs, with HDI between 0.70 and 0.85, around the world. Overall, the epidemic in MICs is exacerbated by the rapid demographic and epidemiologic transitions as well as high prevalence of obesity. While India and Brazil witnessed rapidly increasing rates of cases and deaths, China, Thailand, Vietnam have experienced a relatively lower disease burden [15]. This heterogeneity may be attributed to a number of factors, including governance, communication and service delivery. Thailand, China and Vietnam have implemented a national harmonized strategic response with decentralized implementation through provincial and district authorities [61]. Thailand increased its testing capacity from two to over 200 certified facilities that could process between 10,000 to 100,000 tests per day; moreover, over a million village health volunteers in Thailand supported primary health services [62, 63]. Chinas swift and decisive actions enabled the country to contain its epidemic though there was an initial delay in detecting the disease. China has been able to contain its epidemic through community-based measures, very high public cooperation and social mobilization, strategic lockdown and isolation, multi-sector action [64]. Overall, multi-level governance (effective and decisive leadership and accountability) of the response, together with coordination of public health and socio-economic services, and high levels of citizen adherence to personal protection, have enabled these countries to successfully contain their epidemics [61, 65, 66].

On the other hand, the Brazilian leadership was denounced for its failure to establish a national surveillance network early in the pandemic. In March 2020, the health minister was reported to have stated that mass testing was a waste of public funding, and to have advised against it [67]. This was considered as a sign of a collapse of public health leadership, characterized by ignorance, neoliberal authoritarianism [68]. There were also gaps in the public health capacity in different municipalities, which varied greatly, with a considerable number of Brazilian regions receiving less funding from the federal government due to political tension [69]. The epidemic has a disproportionate adverse burden on states and municipalities with high socio-economic vulnerability, exacerbated by the deep social and economic inequalities in Brazil [70].

India is another middle-income country with a high burden of COVID-19. It was one of the countries to institute strict measures in the early phase of the pandemic [71, 72]. However, the government eased restrictions after the claim that India had beaten the pandemic, which lead to a rapid increase in disease incidence. Indeed, on 12 January 2022, India reported 36 million cumulative cases and almost 485,000 total deaths [15]. The second wave of the epidemic in India exposed weaknesses in governance and inadequacies in the countrys health and other social systems [73]. The nature of the Indian federation, which is highly centripetal, has prevented state and local governments from tailoring a policy response to suit local needs. A centralized one-size-fits-all strategy has been imposed despite high variations in resources, health systems capacity, and COVID-19 epidemics across states [74]. There were also loose social distancing and mask wearing, mass political rallies and religious events [75]. Rapid community transmission driven by high population density and multigenerational households has been a feature of the current wave in India [76]. In addition, several new variants of the virus, including the UK (B.1.1.7), the South Africa (20H/501Y or B.1.351), and Brazil (P.1), alongside a newly identified Indian variant (B.1.617), are circulating in India and have been implicated as factors in the second wave of the pandemic [75, 76].

The pandemic is characterized by variable CFRs across regions and countries that are negatively associated with HDI (Fig.1). The results presented in Fig.4 show that the proportion of elderly population and rate of obesity are important factors which are positively associated with CFR. On the other hand, UHC, IHR capacity and other indicators of health systems capacity (health workforce density and hospital beds) are negatively associated with the CFR (Figs. 1 and 4).

Correlates of COVID-19 cases, deaths and case-fatality rates in 189 countries

The evidence from several research indicates that heterogeneity can be explained by several factors, including differences in age-pyramid, socio-economic status, access to health services, or rates of undiagnosed infections. Differences in age-pyramid may explain some of the observed variation in epidemic severity and CFR between countries [77]. CFRs across countries look similar when taking age into account [78]. The elderly and other vulnerable populations in Africa and Asia are at a similar risk as populations in Europe and Americas [79]. Data from European countries suggest that as high as 57% of all deaths have happened in care homes and many deaths in the US have also occurred in nursing homes. On the other hand, in countries such as Mexico and India, individuals <65years contributed the majority of deaths [80].

Nevertheless, CFR also depends on the quality of hospital care, which can be used to judge the health system capacity, including the availability of healthcare workers, resources, and facilities, which affects outcomes [81]. The CFR can increase if there is a surge of infected patients, which adds to the strain on the health system [82]. COVID-19 fatality rates are affected by numerous health systems factors, including bed capacity, existence and capacity of intensive care unit (ICU), and critical care resources (such as oxygen and dexamethasone) in a hospital. Regions and countries with high HDI have a greater number of acute care facilities, ICU, and hospital bed capacities compared to lower HDI regions and countries [83]. Differences in health systems capacity could explain why North America and Europe, which have experienced much greater number of cases and deaths per million population, reported lower CFRs than the Southern American and the African regions, partly also due to limited testing capacity in these regions (Table 1) [84,85,86]. The higher CFR in Southern America can be explained by the relatively lower health systems surge capacity that could not adequately respond to the huge demand for health services [69, 86]. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted existing health systems weaknesses, which are not able to effectively prepare for and respond to PHEs [87]. The high CFRs in the region are also exacerbated by the high social inequalities [69].

On the other hand, countries in Asia recorded lower CFRs (~1.4%) despite sharing many common risk factors (including overcrowding and poverty, weak health system capacity etc) with Africa. The Asian region shares many similar protective factors to the African region. They have been able to minimize their CFR by suppressing the transmission of the virus and flattening the epidemic curve of COVID-19 cases and deaths. Nevertheless, the epidemic in India is likely to be different because it has exceeded the health system capacity to respond and provide basic medical care and medical supplies such as oxygen [88]. Overall, many Asian countries were able to withstand the transmission of the virus and its effect due to swift action by governments in the early days of the pandemic despite the frequency of travel between China and neighbouring countries such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore [89]. This has helped them to contain the pandemic to ensure case numbers remain within their health systems capacity. These countries have benefited from their experience in the past in the prevention and control of epidemics [90].

There are a number of issues with the use of the CFR to compare the management of the pandemic between countries and regions [91], as it does not depict the true picture of the mortality burden of the pandemic. A major challenge with accurate calculation of the CFR is the denominator on number of identified cases, as asymptomatic infections and patients with mild symptoms are frequently left untested, and therefore omitted from CFR calculations. Testing might not be widely available, and proactive contact tracing and containment might not be employed, resulting in a smaller denominator, and skewing to a higher CFR [82]. It is, therefore, far more relevant to estimate infection fatality rate (IFR), the proportion of all infected individuals who have died due to the infection [91], which is central to understanding the public health impact of the pandemic and the required policies for its prevention and control [92].

Estimates of prevalence based on sero-surveys, which includes asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections, can be used to estimate IFR [93]. In a systematic review of 17 studies, seroprevalence rates ranged from 0.22% in Brazil to 53% in Argentina [94]. The review also identified that the seroprevalence estimate was higher than the cumulative reported case incidence, by a factor between 1.5 times in Germany to 717 times in Iran, in all but two studies (0.56 times in Brazil and 0.88 times in Denmark) [94, 95]. The difference between seroprevalence and cumulative reported cases might be due to asymptomatic cases, atypical or pauci-symptomatic cases, or the lack of access to and uptake of testing [94]. There is only a modest gap between the estimated number of infections from seroprevalence surveys and the cumulative reported cases in regions with relatively thorough symptom-based testing. Much of the gap between reported cases and seroprevalence is likely to be due to undiagnosed symptomatic or asymptomatic infections [94].

It is important to note that the pandemic has significant collateral effects on the provision of essential health services, in addition to the direct health effects [96]. Disruptions in the provision of essential health services, due to COVID-19, were reported by nearly all countries, though it is more so in lower-income than higher-income countries [97, 98]. The biggest impact reported is on provision of day-to-day primary care to prevent and manage some of the most common health problems [99].

The causes of disruptions in service delivery were a mix of demand and supply factors [100]. Countries reported that just over one-third of services were disrupted due to health workforce-related reasons (the most common causes of service disruptions), supply chains, community mistrust and fears of becoming infected, and financial challenge s[101]. Cognizant of the disruptive effects of the pandemic, countries have reorganized their health system.

Countries with better response to COVID-19 have mobilized, trained and reallocated their health workforce in addition to hiring new staff, using volunteers and medical trainees and mobilizing retirees [102]. Several strategies have also been implemented to mitigate disruptions in service delivery and utilization, including: triaging to identify the most urgent patient needs, and postponing elective medical procedures; switching to alternative models of care, such as providing more home-based care and telemedicine [101].

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Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons towards a more effective response to public health emergencies - Globalization and Health - Globalization...

True, neither Moscow nor Washington has hinted at the use of nuclear weapons so far, although there can be no doubt that the two countries did put their nuclear arsenals on standby in the face of the current circumstances. It is also true that the level of military alert in America has not yet reached the level it reached in 1962. But Russian military build-up at the borders of Ukraine exceeds the levels of troop concentration at a European border witnessed in the warmest moments of the Cold War, while Western verbal escalation against Russia has reached a dangerous level accompanied by military gestures and preparations that create a real possibility of a conflagration.

The rulers of the great powers are playing with fire. Vladimir Putin may think that this is like moving queen and rook on a chessboard in order to force the opponent to withdraw their pieces; Joe Biden may believe that it is a suitable opportunity for him to repolish his domestic and international image, very much faded since his embarrassing failure in staging the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan; and Boris Johnson may believe that his governments pretentious bragging is a cheap way to divert attention from his domestic political problems. The fact remains, however, that events in such circumstances quickly acquire their own dynamics to the beat of the drums of wardynamics that surpass the control of all individual actors and risk triggering an explosion that none of the players had originally wanted.

The current tension between Russia and Western countries in Europe has reached a degree not seen on the continent since the Second World War. The first European war episodes witnessed since then, the Balkan wars in the 1990s, never reached the level of prolonged tension and alert between the great powers themselves that we are witnessing today. If a war were to break out as a result of the current tension, even if it initially raged only on Ukrainian soil, the central location and sheer size of Ukraine are enough to make the danger of the fire spreading to other European countries bordering Russia, as well as to the Caucasus and Central Asia, a grave and imminent danger.

The main cause of what is happening today relates to a series of developments, for which the first and major responsibility falls on the most powerful who had the initiativeand that is, of course, the United States. Since the Soviet Union entered terminal agony under Mikhail Gorbachev, and even more so under the first president of post-Soviet Russia, Boris Yeltsin, Washington behaved toward Russia like a merciless victor toward a vanquished, whom the victor wants to prevent from ever getting back on its feet. This translated in the expansion of US-dominated NATO by including countries that had previously belonged to the USSR-dominated Warsaw Pact, instead of dissolving the Western Alliance in parallel with its Eastern counterpart. It also translated in the West dictating an economic policy of shock therapy to Russias bureaucratic economy, provoking huge socio-economic crisis and collapse.

These premises are what most naturally led to the result that one of Gorbachevs most prominent advisersa former member of the Supreme Soviet and of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet UnionGeorgi Arbatov, had warned against thirty years ago, when he predicted that Western policies toward Russia would lead to A New Cold War and the emergence of an authoritarian rule in Moscow reviving Russias old imperial tradition. This has actually happened with Putins ascension to power, representing the interests of the two most important blocs in the Russian capitalist economy (in which state capitalism and private interests are mingled): the military-industrial complexwhich employs a fifth of the Russian industrial labor force, in addition to the armed forces personneland the oil and gas sector.

The result was that Putins Russia is practicing a policy of military expansion that goes far beyond what prevailed during the time of the Soviet Union. Then, Moscow did not deploy combat forces outside the sphere that had fallen under its control by the end of World War II, until it invaded Afghanistan at the end of 1979, an invasion that precipitated the USSRs death agony. As for Putins Russia, after it regained economic vitality thanks to the increase in fuel prices since the turn of the century, it has intervened militarily outside its borders at a frequency comparable to that of US military interventions before the defeat in Vietnam, and between the first American war against Iraq in 1991 and the inglorious exit of US forces from that country twenty years later. Russias interventions and invasions are no longer confined to its near abroad, i.e. those countries adjacent to Russia, which were dominated by Moscow through the USSR or the Warsaw Pact. Post-Soviet Russia has intervened militarily in the Caucasus, especially in Georgia, in Ukraine and most recently in Kazakhstan. But it has also been waging a war is Syria since 2015 and intervening under a transparent cover in Libya and more recently in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Thus, between renewed Russian belligerence and continued US arrogance, the world finds itself on the brink of a disaster that could greatly accelerate the annihilation of humanity, to which our planet is moving by way of environmental degradation and global warming. We can only hope that reason will prevail and that the great powers will reach an agreement addressing Russias security concerns and recreating conditions for a renewed peaceful coexistence that would reduce the heat of the New Cold War and prevent it from turning into a hot war that would be a huge catastrophe for all of humanity.

Translated from the Arabic original published in Al-Quds al-Arabi, 25 January 2022.

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The rulers of the great powers are playing with fire - International Viewpoint

I state with certainty that Islam shall humiliate the superpowers.Imam Khomeini1

As the strength, status and significance of the erstwhile mighty United States continues to erode at an ever accelerating pace, the country seems intent upon locking itself into a three-way struggle with China and Russia that it cannot win.2 Against his geopolitical backdrop, the Islamic Republic of Iran has endured and is celebrating the 43rd anniversary of the victory of the Islamic Revolution, making a mockery of the plethora of western predictions of its imminent demise. Understanding this remarkable persistence Iran has displayed against all odds, as well as the endless efforts exerted by the arrogant powers, presents a conundrum for the West.

First of all, allow me to extend my congratulations to the Iranian people on this auspicious occasion commemorating the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. Over four decades of independence from U.S. domination is quite an astonishing accomplishment, indeed, and not something that to date has been satisfactorily explained by western pundits. Undoubtedly, there are many factors to consider in any attempt to analyze this achievement: economic, military, social, political, geographic, educational, historical, and cultural, just to name a few. Exceeding all these in significance, however, are the religious or spiritual dimensions, namely those contained within Islam, which, in my opinion, is the weft on the shuttle passing through the warp on the loom of nationhood upon which the resilient national fabric of Iran has been woven.

The preeminence of Islam among the cohesive forces forming and maintaining the Iranian national identity and its longevity is often overlooked, discounted, downplayed or even denied in the secular-oriented West and, at best, is certainly not well understood. In most studies of the Islamic Revolution by western scholars, the political, social and economic factors are emphasized in order to conform to their cultural tendency towards placing the Islamic Revolution in a secular, socio-economic model of revolution. Some studies stress the J-curve of continuously rising expectations followed by a sharp economic decline, and others point to the malaise and disorientation produced by rapid social change.3 As these approaches yield unsatisfactory results even for understanding the dynamics of the Islamic Revolution itself, they fail all the more so to provide any insight whatsoever into the resiliency and endurance of the Islamic Republic of Iran. As a consequence, there has been a long list of predictions by western scholars of the imminent demise of the Islamic government. In fact, making such predictions has taken on the character of an annual exercise among western academics, although Irans longevity should in itself suffice to cause these scholars to rethink their axioms and assumptions.

Of course there are geopolitical factors that have contributed to the coherency of the Islamic Republic as well, such as the 8-year-long imposed war, which, much to the chagrin of the arrogant powers supporting the aggressor, triggered an outburst of national unity, volunteering spirit and self-sacrificing determination on the part of the Iranian people to secure their fledgling Islamic nation against the western-backed onslaught. It is Saddam Hussein who on behalf of America attacked us, Imam Khomeini noted on the first day of the war, and if we respond to him, it will never have anything to do with the Iraqi nation, which is our brother.4 Likewise, the economic sanctions, primarily imposed by the US for over the past 40 years, not only have failed to achieve the perpetrators nefarious geopolitical goals, but to the contrary, have compelled Iran to become a self-reliant nation, and, as a corollary, a formidable regional power.

Islam is the common thread tying together numerous nations in the West Asian region, and Irans version of Islamic government and revolution serve as a paradigm for others to follow, thus making Iran a natural for regional leadership. As one scholar noted, the Revolution brought forth a new system of government, an unprecedented design that struck an instant chord with Muslims worldwide.5 Among these countries are six of the fifteen nations of the former Soviet Union, namely Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, all of which have substantial Muslim populations that suffered some degree of persecution under the anti-Islamic policies of the communists. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, there was a renaissance of Islam in the 1990s in these countries, and people, including non-Muslims, were drawn to Islam for its teachings of establishing justice and fighting against oppression.6

Imam Khomeini had sent a letter to the former Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, in which he pointed out that the Islamic Republic of Iran as the greatest and most powerful base of the Islamic world can easily fill the vacuum of religious faith in Russia.7 As a result, Iran has found itself in a religious leadership role in the region for some three decades, propagating the teachings of true Mohammadan Islam to the eager masses. Naturally, the secularized west pushed back against this Islamic awakening with a two-pronged attack: On the one hand there was the godless globalization promulgated by the secular western capitalists, and on the other was the fanatical Wahhabi cult nurtured and funded by the Saudis who at the time were awash in petrodollars.8 The consensus seems to be that globalization marks a continuation of the basic dynamic of Western domination and hegemony dating back hundreds of years, states one author.9

Today, Iran has advanced far beyond the level of what might have been termed an itinerant nation-state preacher to that of an ascending power, replete with a diversifying economy,10 sophisticated technological capabilities and military prowess, 11 as well as diplomatic competence second to none in the West Asian region with the means and focus to realize any policy objective it sets for itself.12 China, itself rapidly advancing to superpower status and already outpacing the US by several benchmarks, has recognized the benefit of entering into a 25-year strategic cooperative agreement with Iran,13 effectively confirming the Islamic Republics ranking as a regional power. Adding to this is Irans recent admission to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose member countries include economic heavyweights China, Russia and India, and constitute one-third of the global land mass and one-quarter of the global GDP.14 The significance of this diplomatic accomplishment can be inferred by the fact that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi passed on attending the UN General Assembly meeting in New York in September 2021 in favor of attending the SCO meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.15

Irans courageous resistance against US hegemony is not simply laudable, but inspirational for peoples everywhere who are suffering from what might be termed postmodern, neocolonial oppression by the US and its allies. The devastation caused by the US in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as Washingtons ongoing support for the Zionist regime, has underscored Irans regional importance and confirmed the Islamic Republics leading role in defending the weak against the powerful.16 The diplomatic successes mentioned previouslyadmission to the SCO, the 25-year cooperative agreement with Chinaalong with the countrys military triumphs in defeating the western-backed, takfiri terrorists in Syria and Iraq, broadcast a strong message of the power of Islamic resistance to the World at large. Furthermore, Irans unwavering support for both Shiah and Sunni Islamic resistance movements, for example Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine,17 sends a loud and clear message of Muslim unity to the arrogant powers, effectively countering and nullifying their efforts to create and exploit sectarian fault lines.

Virtually unmentioned in the western corporate media is that Iran, since the time of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, has hosted millions of refugees fleeing their homelands due to protracted wars and conflict. As a result of the Iranian governments progressive and inclusive humanitarian policies, which include access to health, education and employment opportunities, over 90 percent of these refugees live in host communities side by side with Iranians.18 Compare this with the treatment of Afghan refugees in the US where a scant 125,000 are anticipated to be resettled in the fiscal year from October 1, 2021 to September 30, 202219 following the September 2021 Kabul withdrawal debacle, joining the approximate 130,000 Afghans currently residing there.20

Instead of access to health, education and employment opportunities as in Iran, these new refugees to the US are confronted with demeaning Islamophobic vitriol, and even suspected of being terrorists. One Republican lawmaker from Texas even referred to the Afghan resettlement program as a Trojan horse for terrorism; others have suggested that applicants for asylum be required to renounce Islam and Sharia;21 at least one has demanded a moratorium on resettlement activity. As of late last year, some 20,000 Afghans remained housed at five US military bases with almost 10,000 at Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst in New Jersey.22 I have heard from one reliable source involved in resettlement activities that Afghan children are being separated from their families. Such is how the oppressed Afghans, who are victims of Washingtons geopolitical machinations, are being welcomed to the US.

It is critical that we defend the cultural and ideological citadels of Islam with all our hearts and with utmost bravery, wrote Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Rahbar in April 2014, and these are none other than the spiritual dimensions of the Islamic Revolution.23 Congratulations once again to Iranians and Muslims worldwide on this momentous occasion, but even as we celebrate this 43rd year of victory, we must remain perpetually prepared to defend the Revolution against the enemies satanic plots against Islam and Iran.

Endnotes

1 Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Rahbar, Spiritual Dimensions of the Islamic Revolution of Iran, trans. Blake Archer Williams (Lion of Najaf, 2017), 13.

2 Allan Behm, The decline of US global leadership: Power without authority, The Interpreter, Lowy Institute, October 7, 2019, accessed January 31, 2022, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/decline-us-global-leadership-power-without-authority.

3 Said Amir Arjomand, The Turban for the Crown (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988), 110.

4 Behnam Ben Taleblu, The Iran-Iraq War: It Still Haunts the Middle East To This Day, The National Interest, May 15, 2019, accessed January 31, 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/iran-iraq-war-it-still-haunts-middle-east-day-57697.

5 Niloufar Lily Sarafan, The Evolving Nexus between Islam and Iran, Stanford University, Honors Research in Iran, Summer 2001, accessed January 31, 2022, https://web.stanford.edu/class/e297a/Islam%20and%20Iran.htm.

6 Enayatollah Yazdani, Globalization and the Role of Islam in the post-Soviet Central Asia, Alternatives: Turkish Journal of International Relations 8 (2009): 5, accessed January 30, 2022, https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/19529.

7 Amin Saikal, Iran Risisng: The Survival and Future of the Islamic Republic (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2019), 79.

8 Michael R. Dillon, Wahhabism is it a factor in the spread of global terrorism? (MA Thesis, Naval Post Graduate School, 2002) 56, accessed January 30, 2022, https://nps.edu/documents/105988371/107571254/DillonWahhabismThesis.pdf/23fc46fb-17a6-41da-83b8-8e312191b5bb.

9 Mark Levine, Muslim Responses to Globalization, SIM Newsletter, International Institute for the Study of Islam in the Modern World 10 (2002): 37-39, accessed January 31, 2022, https://scholarlypublications.universiteitleiden.nl/access/item%3A2730009/view.

10 Overview: Islamic Republic of Iran, The World Bank, March 30, 2021, accessed January 31, 2022, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview#1.

11 Michael Rubin, Irans military is making strides into twenty-first century technology, American Enterprise Institute, August 8, 2019, accessed January 31, 2022, https://www.aei.org/articles/irans-military-twenty-first-century-technology/.

12 Sharmine Narwani, Iran and the GCC: Prospects for a Grand Reconciliation, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs 43(2021): accessed January 31, 2022, https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/iran-and-the-gcc-prospects-for-a-grand-reconciliation/.

13 The China-Iran 25-Year Cooperation Agreement: What is it and Should Investors be Encouraged? China Briefing, July 16, 2021, accessed January 30, 2022, https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-china-iran-25-year-cooperation-agreement-what-is-it-and-should-regional-investors-traders-pay-attention/.

14 Nazila Fathi, What will SCO membership mean for Iran? Middle East Institute, September 28, 2021, accessed January 30, 2022, https://www.mei.edu/publications/what-will-sco-membership-mean-iran.

15 Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas, Iran Turns East, Foreign Policy, October 26, 2021, accessed January 30, 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/10/26/iran-china-russia-sco-raisi-turns-east/.

16 Amin Saikal, ibid., 241.

17 Ibid., 210.

18 Refugees in Iran, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, accessed January 30, 2022, https://www.unhcr.org/ir/refugees-in-iran/.

19 Annika Kim Constantino, Biden administration falls short of fiscal year 2021 U.S. refugee admissions cap, CNBC, October 8, 2021, accessed January 30, 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/biden-administration-falls-short-of-fiscal-year-2021-us-refugee-admissions-cap-.html,

20 Jeanne Batalova, Afghan Immigrants in the United States, Migration Policy Institute, September 9, 2021, accessed January 30, 2022, https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/afghan-immigrants-united-states.

21 Caleb Kieffer, Afghan Refugee Resettlement Efforts Ignites Ugly Rhetoric Despite Popular Support, Southern Poverty Law Center, December 2, 2021, accessed January 30, 2022, https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2021/12/02/afghan-refugee-resettlement-efforts-ignites-ugly-rhetoric-despite-popular-support.

22 Travis Tritten, Thousands of Afghans Remain Housed on US Bases Months After the Fall of Kabul, Military.com, January 10, 2022, accessed January 30, 2022, https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/01/10/thousands-of-afghans-remain-housed-us-bases-months-after-fall-of-kabul.html.

23 Ayatollah Mohammad-Taqi Rahbar, ibid., 13.

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Iran endures: The Islamic Revolution at 43 - Tehran Times

How do you give 100% of yourself and your energy to the challenging task of making your company not only a big success but also a force for good and a bastion of human respect? Photo: iStock/Michail_Petrov-96

A big part of being an example of (or: of advancing) Social Capital is that its not about you, but about how to make the world a better place with your presence. As a CEO or corporate leader, that can be a bit of a conundrum. How do you give 100 percent of yourself and your energy to the challenging task of making your company not only a big success but also a force for good and a bastion of human respect -- without making yourself so indispensible that the company revolves around you or cannot exist without you?

Sometimes, the best answer to that question is: You cant. Or at least maybe the time is not right to leave and hand over the reins. In those cases, the leader decides its in the best interest of the company to not leave even when the temptation to do so comes in the form of big bucks and big offers.

In other cases, its a matter of cultivating such a powerful culture and presence of the ideas that you think are paramount to the company being a Social Capital presence, that the legacy of that ethical behavior endures and even grows after your departure. There really is no one way to do this, but there are some definite tips for accomplishing that responsibly and effectively. We have done our best to find the best examples of a variety of ways some leaders have chosen, and we are sharing them this month.

So, whether you are looking for answers as to whether or when -- you should stay or go, or you want some great tips for how to keep the fires of Social Capital burning brightly for years to come after your departure, these Social Capital leaders and their helpful insights should prove invaluable.

Long live your company, and its Social Capital.

Hubert Joly: former CEO of Best Buy

Hubert Joly believes business is about purpose and human connections between the employees, between the employees and the customers, the vendors, the community, the shareholders, and the environment in a holistic fashion. And he wanted to make sure that when he left the company one day, that culture would continue. Thats what we need to do the create a future that does not exist yet, that we need to create because the current trajectory is not good, and thats how we would create a more stable future for ourselves and our kids, he says.

If you start with finances, youll never get to people and clients, and at the end of the day, its those two things that truly drive the business, says Hubert Joly. Photo: iStock/designer491

However, the origins of the company culture that developed under his tenure lay in the mindset he had brought with him when he took the reins at Best Buy: the need to broaden minds at the leadership level. If you can connect the search for meaning of the individual with the purpose of the company, then magical things happen," explains Hubert. He believes in what he calls human magic: mobilizing people to give their best effort and having that, then, translate into extraordinary performance. So, the first concern of a business leader is how the people in the organization are doing. Checking on how the clients are being served comes next. Lastly in this hierarchy are the financials. In Huberts view, If you start with finances, youll never get to people and clients, and at the end of the day, its those two things that truly drive the business.

Once Hubert had given Best Buy a strong reset from a failing to a successful company, it was wise to look further forward. And Hubert recalls, When I was at Best Buy, one of our board members brought up the idea ofusing an executive development firm to help with the development of the two or three potential successors we had identified. Instead, I decided to use their services with every member of the executive team, self included, He envisioned the focus would be on leadership growth, and how everyone in the leadership suites could function more effectively as a leadership team, rather than helping just two or three individuals prepare for some distant, abstract event.

This broad approach to leadership development also reinforced Huberts belief that it is a myth that a person is either born a leader or not. Im the personal proof that you can grow into being a good leader, he says.

Hubert felt this would set a foundation for the company that would enable it to move forward once he stepped down. Late in 2018, I began to reflect on the right time for me to pass the baton to a next generation of leaders. Several reasons ultimately led me to want to do that. Some were professional: we had accomplished what I had set to accomplish when I took the job, I felt that the team we had developed was ready to take over, and I felt it was important for the company to have a team ready to lead with a long-term focus.

Hubert believed that, being co-created, the environment and culture would be lasting.

Of Best Buys development efforts, Hubert says, It worked well because all of us needed to grow as leaders, the entire team benefited, and we avoided creating false or premature expectations. Significantly, he notes, The mental shift from succession planning to executive development was liberating for everyone. And while the focus on succession had shifted, we could still see, as a board, which team members were progressing.

In addition, I was ready to start a new chapter in my life, after 20 years or so being a CEO.

I had always felt that my life was not tied to being the CEO of a company and that I was just asked, for a period of time, to be the custodian of that company, responsible for leaving it in a better state than when I had started. My goal from the onset was to be dispensable. Thats why I decided to pass the baton of CEO to Corie Barry and her team in 2019. I felt I had accomplished what I set out to do and it was an easy decision. The company was doing well, powered by exceptional people and led by an extraordinary executive team.

He stepped down as CEO in 2019 to become executive chairman then left the company completely in 2020, although he is still an advisor to the current CEO and board of directors. Now, as a senior lecturer of business administration at the Harvard Business School, he is helping inspire the next generation of business leaders with a new, better view of business and capitalism founded on purpose and humanity -- the Social Capital philosophy we love so much!

David Novak:former CEO of YUM! Brands

David Novak credits his parent for instilling in him by their example the beautiful way to treat people that underlies our appreciation of him as a Social Capital business leader: giving employees recognition so they know they are appreciated. And from day one as CEO of YUM! Brands, he began preparing his replacement to do the same.

He pioneered the concept, which he calls purposeful recognition, as co-founder and CEO of YUM! Brands, which operates KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell, among other restaurant brands. Recognition is a wonderful way to really create a lot of fun in your company as well. You want to take the business seriously, but you don't want to take yourself too seriously. And by having fun recognizing people and celebrating other people's success, we were able to get great results, he says.

I just have to give my mom and dad a lot of credit because I grew up in a very humble background, he relates, but I had unbelievable parents. We grew up in a trailer, and they just recognized me throughout my life, and they still are the first one to call me if I ever do anything good. And he has a powerful way of paying that forward.

David became the CEO of Yum! Brands in 1999 and says his search for a successor began from that point on until he retired in 2016. The expectation for all our leaders was to identify backups and development plans for their potential successor, and I was no exception, he says. I developed a checklist of the characteristics I felt were essential for the next CEO. Chief among them were a tangible demonstration of results over a sustainable period of time, the skill to create a future back vision, maniacal focus on customers, the rigor to drive accountability and ensure outstanding execution, anda fervent belief in people, including the importance of talent, the ability to recruit and retain top leaders. And, of course, the passion to sustain and build our powerful recognition culture.

He believes it is important most important, he says for business leaders to make their company culture so entrenched that the people in the company hold the next CEO accountable for continuing to drive it. It is an expectation of the job and the CEO knows that he or she will fail without it. The worst thing that can happen to a company culture is when the team says, I remember when we . . .. Its up to the CEO to create new memories. Obviously, I evaluated my successors ability to drive our culture in their piece of Yum! and walk the talk of our key behaviors and values. This was an absolute must-have, and everyone knew it.

David Novak believes it is important for business leaders to make their company culture so entrenched that the people in the company hold the next CEO accountable for continuing to drive it. Photo: iStock/sportpoint

Stepping down from the company he had led for 17 years was prompted by family needs. Fortunately, I had a successor in place who was able to carry the ball forward. I also was able to spin off our China business into a separate public company, making it Yum! Brands largest franchisee and I knew that was the strategic move that would grow our business.

As the head of a global retail business, he had felt he had a responsibility to visit restaurants and restaurant support centers around the globe, spending 80% of his time out in the field. This became untenable for me due to my wife's failing health, he relates. Although many advisors told him he could travel less and leverage his equity with the YUM! Brands employees and the investment community, he says that option did not feel right. When I knew I couldn't put the uniform on like I used to, I knew it was time to step down.

The decisions he put in play in stepping away proved positive. He reports that the stocks for both Yum! Brands and Yum! China have more than doubled in the last five years. The company was set up for both business and cultural success, he says.

My purpose in life now is to make the world a better place by developing better leaders, David shares explaining the impetus behind founding David Novak Leadership and launching the How Leaders Lead brand, which includes his podcast with top leaders in the world and digital training programs, and his book Taking People With You: The Only Way to Make Big Things Happen was a New York Times bestseller. It is critical that leaders take accountability for their own personal development, which spurred me to write my latest book,Take Charge of You: How Self Coaching Can Transform Your Life and Career, he says. Your life and career are far too important to delegate it to someone else.

Mike Brady: former CEO of Greyston Bakery

Mike Brady is eager to share the business story of Greyston Bakery, which he led for eight years. In fact, he has spoken with us several times to share his insights and experiences as CEO of Greyston Bakery and his admiration for the ideals of Zen Master Bernie Glassman, who had founded the organization on his vision that a business could thrive financially and contribute to the betterment of society at the same time. In fact, when Mike would eventually leave it would be to pursue those goals even more aggressively.

It was for Mikes devotion to the principle of open hiring that we first honored him in our feature How Americas Top Social Capital CEOs Can Teach Us the Power of Kindness .

During his tenure at the helm of Greyston, a team of social justice innovators at the Start Foundation in the Netherlands embraced Greystons open hiring model and implemented it with fantastic success in a completely different socio-economic model. This showed him clearly the potential for global impact with inclusive hiring. They succeeded in placing people facing a distance from the workforce into jobs without interviews or background checks regardless of their age, refugee status, work history, education or any other barrier to employment, Mike reports. Replicating the open hiring model outside of Yonkers was a multi-year effort that required a collaboration of business, philanthropic and NGO partners. This was one of many achievements at Greyston, across a spectrum of business and social metrics, that put the organization on a long-term path for success, he says. But for him, Moving the organization forward along that path was something I knew others could do and I was ready for change.

Mike sees this theory now driving economic growth around the world as ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) investors have been in pursuit of socially conscious businesses under the belief that making a measurable positive impact on society correlates with enterprise value. And he points out that only a few weeks ago, Warren Valdmanis, a partner at Two Sigma Impact -- a private equity business focused on workforce impact -- released a TED Talk titled What makes a job good -- and the case for investing in people, explaining many of the principles that Bernie espoused forty years earlier.

As Greystons CEO, Mike reinstated the special culture Bernie had created and focused on ensuring that purpose would continue. Bernie started Greyston Foundation in 1994 to provide social services desperately needed in the low-income community of Southwest Yonkers where Greystons commercial business operated. This created a unique governance model with a nonprofit entity owning the for-profit. By the time I joined the company in 2012, Mike recalls, the entrepreneurial vigor had withered as Bernie had left the organization fourteen years earlier. My contribution to the culture was to bring back the visionary mindset upon which Bernie had founded Greyston, to develop an operating model meeting the standards of a Fortune 100 company, and to find a team capable of executing it. The new leadership committed to three broad goals related to entrepreneurial excellence, proactive problem solving and a promise to support each other on the journey. The culture they created was similar to what Bernie used to build the organization, and they were successful in launching a new national brand of baked goods and creating a social justice center to codify and replicate their inclusive hiring model. Now, Mike says, I will always encourage new leadership to develop language to fit their persona, but the cultural values upon which Greyston was founded will not change.

Greystons model for inclusive hiring, called open hiring, was based on the Buddhist principle of non-judgment, so developing the companys staff without judgment was core to the work. We embraced the potential in everyone in the organization to be a leader and we invested in that potential to develop the best talent. We had less interest in what team members had done in the past, yet we were completely committed to what you were going to accomplish in your future, Mike says, noting this was true for the newest apprentice working the bakery line to the experienced hire empowered to create the next program.

Offering more food for thought, Mike says, The incomparable Steve Jobs captured it brilliantly with, It doesnt make sense to hire smart people and tell them what to do; we hire smart people so they can tell us what to do. Applying that philosophy to this features topic of leadership succession, Mike says, It is the responsibility of the CEO to hire a quality leadership team and empower them to lead the organization, so when the time comes to transition the organizational disruption is minimal.

For him, as indicated above, the time came with the Netherlands effort. I could see then, as I do now, that there is a sea change underway in how business, government and philanthropy work together to create social change, but that nonprofit solutions were not making progress at a pace needed to drive systemic change, he says. Although crediting nonprofits like the foundation that oversaw the profit-based bakery that Mike ran - for their invaluable role in developing social innovations, Mike points out that nonprofits are generally project-based, with many strings attached. The financial model doesnt include general operating costs, like technology, capital expenses and non-programmatic staff, Mike explains, observing that fact creates fiscal imbalance and inhibits scaling. He sees this as a problem unique to the social sector that many philanthropists, impact investors and civic leaders are working to solve. Mike is dedicated to proving the profitability of ESG, so he explains, When my interest in solving this problem was superseded by other entrepreneurial goals, I knew it was time to step down.

Mike, who is now a consultant on inclusive hiring, social justice, and nonprofit and corporate governance, says, Whenever I speak to students about making career decisions, I recite this line delivered by Paul Polman during a presentation on regenerative business practices: Think less about the career you want and more about the problem you want to solve.

Noting there are massive shifts underway in philanthropy, government and business, Mike believes, The future of work is about using advances in technology to build regenerative companies capable of delivering services and products at fair prices and generating a fair return to all stakeholders. Says Mike, I am driven to use the forces of businesses and capital to create a more equitable future of work. Restoring trust in capitalism requires us to think differently about how we do business and about how we invest.

Brian Scudamore: CEO of 1-800-Got-Junk

Brian Scudamore went from high school dropout looking for a summer job to a blue-collar millionaire with a simple albeit brilliant idea to turn troublesome trash into a positive customer experience with 1-800-Got-Junk.

Now, the company has more than 250 locations in the U.S., Canada and Australia under Scudamores O2E (Ordinary 2 Extraordinary) Brands, a half-billion-dollar business that includes house-painting company WOW 1 Day Painting and home-detailing business Shack Shine.

What made him a perfect entry for our Social Capital list is, hes just a down-to-earth guy who knows the best way to achieve success is by treating people well. Scudamore created a business all around the idea of customer service and happiness, and he really believes in communicating those concepts constantly with customers and employees. In fact, he built his entire hiring process around it. Brian is so personally involved in this and finds so much fulfillment in it that, for him, the very idea of ever stepping down as CEO is hard to even fathom.

For me, Ive always felt like walking away would be selfish, explains Brian. Ive got a bigger purpose. A grander plan. And on many occasions along the way, Ive been offered large amounts of cash -- so I was tested on this belief (I turned down an early-day $100 million offer!). I think it comes down to understanding what my purpose is and what makes me happy.

Scudamores purpose and the very idea of how and why he started his business was to make a difference in a way few thought was possible and to create a business model that many said was not viable. He believes the people whose lives have been made better because of that, including his own, would be detrimentally affected if he walked away.

I love nothing more than watching people grow, planting seeds of ideas that were once barely thought possible and watching a team rally around making them happen -- like creating brands in fragmented spaces like junk removal, house painting and house detailing, explains Scudamore. We were told these industries were not franchise-able, yet we took on the challenge to make it happen! And making ordinary businesses exceptional is not something I want to give away, for any price, to a team that might be driven moreby money than by meaning.

Brian believes if he had taken the money and run back in 2007 -- when he was offered a boatload of cash -- his company might no longer exist, as the new owners may not have had the stomach to get really scrappy to keep the lights on when the economic collapse of 2007 and 2008 came around. That would have meant not only thousands of lost jobs but lost opportunities for hundreds of entrepreneurs who got their start through Brians franchise formula.

But, of course, this begs the question: Is this the right decision for all of us or is Brian a special case because he loves what he does so much? He doesnt think so. He sees a world of untapped opportunity for those who are willing to take the long view.

Ive often wondered, What if more founders played the long game versus building a quick exit into their plans? ponders Brian. I hear today about so many founders who start apps, tech companies and new products who build a quick exit into their plans. With all due respect, I feel like we could use more founders sticking around and protecting their original ideas, passion and purpose. I think sometimes great ideas dont go in the direction that the initial visionary saw, once theyve been bought by a team with different motivations.

Obviously Brian cannot run the company forever, but hes intent on fighting the good fight as long as possible because he believes he has only yet begun to make his mark, and the best may, in fact, be yet to come. And there is more than a lesson or two in that for every entrepreneur or CEO.

Now, we cant predict the future. I get that, and Im sure there could have been many arguments on the flipside -- and I do know founders can often get in their own way -- but I think the originator of an idea often sees something way beyond money, that others might not or arent able to see.

Concludes Brian: Call me crazy, but, as Apple once said in its famous commercial, The ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the worldare the ones who do.

Robert Glazer: former CEO of Acceleration Partners

On the flip side, Robert Glazers incredibly deep devotion and connection to his employees is the very reason he thought it was important to step aside as CEO and let one of them take the reins, adding new insights and inspirations to the mix.

Deep down, I knew that I wouldnt be CEO of Acceleration Partners (AP), the company I founded, for the rest of my career, reveals Robert. As the company continued growing, I realized that what I wanted to focus on, both inside and outside of Acceleration Partners, and what the business objectively needed from a CEO were diverging. Once I came to that realization, it was natural to think about who could eventually take the CEO role after me, and I did not have to look very far for a natural successor.

Roberts award-winning affiliate marketing agency has been ranked repeatedly among Glassdoors best places to work, and he was twice named No. 2 on Glassdoors list of Top CEOs of Small and Medium Companies in the U.S.

Thats pretty amazing since he doesnt even own a building for his employees to work in. His company has always been remote. How did that happen? Well, one way was with the most conscientious, honest and well-thought-out hiring processes imaginable, all designed to make sure that those coming on board know what the company is about and what to expect, what the work environment will be, and to make absolutely sure it is a good fit for both parties. If, after all that, it still doesnt work out for some reason, Glazer will personally help those employees find a different job either within the company or even with another employer by personally tapping into his extensive contact base.

Such a powerful hiring strategy and incredibly well-designed training program is probably why he was so confidant when the time came to step away that one of his original hires would be the right one to take over.

A powerful hiring strategy and incredibly well-designed training program is probably why Robert Glazer was so confidant when the time came to step away that one of his original hires would be the right one to take over. Photo: iStock/Eike Leppert

I have many flaws as a leader, but I have always tried to hire people who are smarter than me, says Robert. Likewise, I believe leaders should genuinely want their best people to be positioned to take their job one day.

Matt Wool, who became APs CEO in December, has been my number two for a decade. He was our fourth employee and has grown at the same rate as our organization -- whenever there was a new level of leadership responsibility to be taken at AP, Matt put himself in the position to take that role. He has always challenged himself, sought out feedback and looked for new ways to learn and improve. As APs president, he already ran the companys day-to-day operations for the past five years.

But for Robert, or anyone who has come to the conclusion that they need to pass the torch, the question is how to proceed. For Robert, it meant putting in the time to prepare his replacement properly.

I knew Matt was on the trajectory to become CEO, and I wanted him to have that chance at AP, explains Robert. Knowing that, one day while on a walk during a conference in London, over two years ago, I first asked Matt to succeed me as CEO. When he agreed, we laid out and executed a careful transition plan from there. I made sure that Matt was given increasingly more responsibility over the business -- including managing nearly our entire Senior Leadership Team -- and connected him with any resources that could help him hone and develop his leadership skills. All I did was give Matt the space and resources to grow; he did the hard work.

But even if you know you have right replacement, and you have done all you can to prepare them, how do you ensure the culture you created continues under their new leadership? For Robert, its already baked into the mix long before you decide to step down.

Organizational culture must come from leadership, but it does not depend on any one leader, insists Robert. A quote thats always resonated with me is from Sheryl Sandberg: Leadership is about making others better as a result of your presence and making sure that impact lasts in your absence. Ive always aimed for our culture to be able to stand strong even if Im not at the head of it. While there are connections between APs cultural principles and my personal values, APs culture does not depend on me being at the head of the company.

For Robert, that goes right back to that incredible training for new hires and the overall commitment to the tenets of that training on an ongoing basis.

Weve built our culture around clear, consistent core values and a vision for our company and industry, explains Robert, noting that the values and vision are supported by clear organizational goals that are tenets of our daily work. For example, we walk every new hire through our Vivid Vision, we use our core values for promotions, performance evaluations and even annual awards, and we keep our company goals visible and transparent to the full company.

Robert continues, I also know that Matt, my successor as CEO, believes just as strongly in our culture as I do. He exemplifies our three core valuesOwn It, Embrace Relationships and Excel and Improveand upholds them on our Senior Leadership Team. Im not worried about our culture because at this point, its so firmly ingrained in what we do and because our leadership is dedicated to that culture.

Robert could not stress more emphatically that such a formula is key not just to the continuity of success but to the success in general of any company, as the mission and values of the company should be bigger than any one employee even if that one employee is the CEO or founder.

Over the years, Ive seen many cases where a leaders identity is intertwined with their business. Starting and growing a business is often an entrepreneurs greatest accomplishment outside of their family, says Robert, and he believes part of that reward is retaining the coveted title of CEO a badge of achievement and validation that is tough to give up. But founders shouldnt hold onto this title forever, especially when it doesnt really serve their best interest or that of their company. Though being APs CEO has been one of the highlights of my life, I am excited for this next chapter for both myself and the business.

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The Boss Is Outta Here Or Not? - International Business Times

With highly expected symbolism, Russias primary focus at the forthcoming November summit in St. Petersburg with African leaders, corporate business directors, representatives from the academic community, civil society organizations and media will largely be renewing most of its unfulfilled bilateral agreements, and making new pledges that will, as usual, be incorporated into a second joint declaration.

Brilliant speeches reminded of long-standing traditions of friendship and solidarity, how Soviets assisted African countries in their struggle to attain independence and established statehood, and further highlighted neo-colonialism tendencies wide spreading on the continent. That Russia stands with Africa on matters of strengthening peace and stability on the continent and ensuring regional security. Next is absolute readiness to engage in broadening vibrant cooperation in all economic sectors.

While the first summit was described as highly successful due to its spectacular blistering symbolism and has offered the necessary solid impetus for raising to qualitative level the multifaceted relations, especially in the economic spheres with Africa, much has still not been pursued as expected. Behind the shadows of the bilateral agreements, some of the projects were simultaneously assigned to either Western or European investors.

Long before the historic summit, African foreign ministers and delegations had lined up visiting Moscow. Those frequent official visits were intended to show off that Russia is high demand as indicated in a 150-paged new policy released last November by a group of 25 leading experts headed by Sergei A. Karaganov, the Honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy.

The report that vividly highlighted some pitfalls and shortcomings in Russias approach towards Africa. It further pointed to Russias consistent failure in honoring its several agreements and pledges over the years. It decried the increased number of bilateral and high-level meetings that yield little or bring to the fore no definitive results. In addition, insufficient and disorganized Russian African lobbying combined with a lack of information hygiene at all levels of public speaking, says the policy report.

There are, indeed, to demonstrate demand for Russia in the non-Western world; the formation of ad hoc political alliances with African countries geared towards competition with the collective West. Apart from the absence of a public strategy for the continent, there is lack of coordination among various state and para-state institutions working with Africa.

Despite the growth of external players influence and presence in Africa, Russia has to intensify and redefine its parameters. Russias foreign policy strategy regarding Africa has to spell out and incorporate the development needs of African countries.

Unlike most competitors, Russia has to promote an understandable agenda for Africa: working more on sovereignty, continental integration, infrastructure development, human development (education and medicine), security (including the fight against hunger and epidemics), normal universal human values, the idea that people should live with dignity and feel protected.

Nearly all the Russian experts who participated in putting the report together unreservedly agreed with this view. The main advantage of such an agenda is that it may be more oriented to the needs of Africans than those of its Western and European competitors. It is advisable to present such a strategy already at the second Russia-Africa summit, and discuss and coordinate it with African partners before that. Along with the strategy, it is advisable to adopt an Action Plan a practical document that would fill cooperation with substance between summits.

Vsevolod Tkachenko, the Director of the Africa Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated during one of the preparatory meetings, the African partners expect concrete deeds, maximum substantive ideas and useful proposals. The current task is to demonstrate results and highlight achievements to the African side. Over the past years, African countries have witnessed many bilateral agreements, memoranda of understanding and pledges.

Russia has to set different narratives about its aspirations and intentions of returning to Africa. The approach has to move from rhetoric and mere declarations of interests. Since the basis of the summit remains the economic interaction between Russia and Africa, the ideas currently being worked out on new possible instruments to encourage Russian exports to Africa, Russian investments to the continent, such as a fund to support direct investment in Africa, all these deserve special attention, Tkachenko says.

According to an official report posted on the website, Russias Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov, during the Government Hour in the State Duma on January 26, stated that the cooperation with African countries has expanded to reach new frontiers. Together with African friends, we are working on preparations for the second Russia-Africa summit scheduled to be held this year. Previously, for instance, Lavrov explicitly indicated: Russias political ties, in particular, are developing dynamically. But economic cooperation is not as far advanced as political ties.

Many experts have expressed concern about the relationship between Russia and Africa, most often comparing it with other foreign players on the continent within the framework of sustainable development there in Africa. It is about time to make meaningful efforts to implement tons of bilateral agreements already signed with Africa countries.

Russia, of course, is not satisfied with this state of affairs. At present diplomacy dominates its approach: plethora of agreements were signed with many African countries, official visits proliferate apace, but the outcomes remain hardly discernible, Professor Gerrit Olivier from the Department of Political Sciences, University of Pretoria in South Africa and a former South African Ambassador to the Russian Federation, wrote in an emailed comment.

While, given its global status, Russia ought to be active in Africa as Western Europe, the European Union, America and China are, it is all but absent, playing a negligible role. Be that as it may, the Kremlin has revived its interest in the African continent and it will be realistic to expect that the spade work it is putting in now will at some stage show more tangible results, Olivier added.

ZimbabwesAmbassador to Russia, Brigadier General (rtd) Nicholas Mike Sango, who has been in his post since July 2015, expresses his views on the relations between Africa and the Russian Federation.While Russia has traditional ties with Africa, its economic footprints are not growing as expected. It has however attempting to transform the much boasted political relations into a more comprehensive and broad economic cooperation, he noted in his conversation with me.

He pointed to the disparity in the level of development, the diversity of cultures and aspirations of the peoples of the two regions, there is growing realization that Africa is an important partner in the emerging and sustainable polycentric architecture of the world order as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has aptly asserted. But in fact, Africascritical mass can only be ignored at great risk therefore.

For a long time, Russiasforeign policy on Africa has failed to pronounce itself in practical terms as evidenced by the countable forays into Africa by Russian officials. The Russian Federation has shied away from economic cooperation with Africa, making forays into the few countries that it has engaged in the last few years. African leaders hold Russia in high esteem as evidenced by the large number of African embassies in Moscow. Furthermore, Russia has no colonial legacy in Africa, according to the Zimbabwean diplomat.

Ambassador Sango, who previously held various high-level posts such as military adviser in Zimbabwes Permanent Mission to the United Nations, and as international instructor in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), also said that Russia has not responded in the manner expected by Africa, as has China, India and South Korea, to name a few. Africas expectation is that Russia, while largely in the extractive industry, will steadily transfer technologies for local processing of raw materials as a catalyst for Africasdevelopment.

While Russia and Africa have common positions on the global platform, the need to recognize and appreciate the aspirations of the common man cannot be overstated. Africa desires economic upliftment, human security in the form of education, health, shelter as well as security from transnational terrorism among many challenges afflicting Africa. The Russian Federation has the capacity and ability to assist Africa overcome these challenges leveraging on Africasvast resources, Ambassador Sango concluded.

For more than three decades after Soviet collapse in 1991, Russia has had different degrees of political relations and currently looking forward to build stronger economic cooperation. During these years, the relations have also transited through distinctive phases taking cognizance of challenges and fast changing global politics.

In an interview discussion for this story, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration of Ghana, explains to this research writer that Although, for a relationship lasting this long with Africa, one would have expected it to move past where it is now. In short, there is still room for improvement, in fostering particularly stronger economic ties.

It is hoped that Russia continues consistently to catch up with other active foreign competitors, makes attempts to transform the well-developed political relations with broader economic cooperation the coming years. Ultimately, emphasis should also be placed on developing people-to-people relations, whereby the peoples of both countries would have better understanding of each other.

Critically not much has been achieved, looking at the Russia-Africa relations from the perspective of regional organizations especially Southern African Development Community (SADC), when it was headed by Lawrence Stergomena. Regrettably, she explained during discussions with me that like most of the developing countries, Southern African countries have largely relied on multilateral and regional development financial institutions to fund their development projects.

In this regard, SADC welcomes investors from all over the world. In reality, Russia has not been that visible in the region as compared to China, India or Brazil. On the other hand, it is encouraging that Russia is currently attempting to position itself to be a major partner with Southern Africa, underlined Stergomena, and further explained that the SADC is an inter-governmental organization with its primary goal of deepening socio-economic cooperation and integration in the southern region.

Dr. Babafemi A. Badejo, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Chrisland University, Abeokuta, Nigeria, argues that many foreign players and investors are now looking forward to exploring several opportunities in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which provides a unique and valuable access to an integrated African market of over 1.2 billion people. In practical reality, it aims at creating a continental market for goods and services, with free movement of business people and investments in Africa.

Badejo argues further that Russias gradual engagement can be boosted by African media popularizing and boosting knowledge on such engagements by Russia. Hosting the next summit would feed very well into popularizing Russias efforts at engagement with African leaders. However, promoting relations with the continent of Africa would require more than a one-off event with African leaders who have varying levels of legitimacy from performance or lack of it in their respective countries.

Interestingly, and at the current moment, not much of Russias image is promoted by the media in Africa. African media should have the opportunity to report more about Russian corporate presence in Africa and their added value to the realization of the sustainable development goals in Africa. This corporate presence can support the building of the media image of Russia in Africa through involvements with people-at-large oriented activities.

In this final analysis, Russia has to make consistent efforts in building its media network that could further play key role in strengthening relations with Africa, the academic professor noted in his lengthy discussions on Russia-Africa, and concluded that it is Western perception and narrative of Russia that pervades the African media. Russia needs to do more in using media to tell its own story and interest in Africa.

President Vladimir Putin noted at the VTB Capitals Russia Calling Forum, that many countries had been stepping up their activities on the African continent but added that Russia could not cooperate with Africa as it was in the Soviet period, for political reasons. In his opinion, cooperation with African countries could be developed on a bilateral basis as well as on a multilateral basis, through the framework of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Reports say Moscow promises to provide genuine cooperation seems illusive over these years. Russias involvement in infrastructure development has been extremely low for the past decades on the continent. With its impressive relations, Russia has not pledged publicly concrete funds toward implementing its policy objectives in Africa. Its investment efforts have been limited thus far which some experts attributed to lack of a system of financing. While Russians are very cautious about making financial commitments, the financial institutions are not closely involved in foreign policy initiatives in Africa.

In addition, experts have identified lack of effective coordination and follow-ups combined with inconsistency are basic factors affecting the entire relations with Africa. While the first summit is still considered as the largest symbolic event in history, many significant issues in the joint declaration have not been pursued and that could lay down a comprehensive strategic roadmap for building the future Russia-African relations.

As publicly known, China, Japan and India have committed funds publicly during their summits, while large investment funds have also come from the United States and European Union, all towards realizing various economic and infrastructure projects and further collaborating in new interesting areas as greater significant part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Africa.

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Ambitious China gears up to flex power in the conflict-riven Horn of Africa - Modern Diplomacy

A Russian invasion of Ukraine would have devastating consequences for the Ukrainian people. Marnie Howlett argues that while the priority is to deescalate the immediate tensions, it cannot be forgotten that Ukraine has now been living under the threat of conflict and instability for much of its history. Rather than the mere avoidance of war, the country requires a lasting solution that can bring genuine peace and security to its citizens.

As Russia continues to increase its military presence along Ukraines borders in preparation for a potential attack, growing support for Ukraines independence and territorial sovereignty can be seen across the globe. Numerous state governments, including NATO allies and former Soviet states (for example, Georgia), non-governmental organisations, such as the Ukrainian World Congress, and influential leaders like Pope Francis have all expressed their concerns over the rising tensions, stating that they stand shoulder to shoulder with the Ukrainian people.

In calling on Putin to step back from the brink, the international community has stated that an invasion by Russia would be met with a swift, severe and united response, particularly by the United States and its European allies. Moreover, the possibility of massive and rapid sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU, coupled with the recent actions of several administrations to send defensive military personnel, equipment, and aid to Ukraine, materially and symbolically demonstrates widespread support for the post-Soviet state. While the outpouring support in response to the escalating tensions may fundamentally be motivated by fears regarding the regional and economic stability of the European continent and a potential third World War, rather than purely by concerns over Ukraines domestic peace and security, it will nonetheless be ordinary Ukrainian citizens who will be most directly impacted should Russia invade the states territory.

Yet, lost somewhere in the headlines and discussions about the threat of invasion is the reality of what Russias increased military presence along the shared border means for Ukrainians. Though the international community has outwardly stated that Putin is using Ukraine as a hostage to renegotiate a settled Cold War outcome and prevent the state from further integrating into the EU and NATO, found less often in policy briefings, political discussions, and even popular discourses is a consideration of what such an attack means for Ukraines citizens.

Beyond demonstrating Russias continued efforts at re-asserting its dominance in the states administration, as well as the larger post-Soviet space, an invasion would result in significant civilian causalities, material and infrastructural destruction, and economic decimation for Ukraine. As with any war, active combat would likewise drastically disrupt the established social, political, and economic processes and structures at the grassroots; motivate feelings of distress, anxiety, and fear amongst citizens; and culminate in mass mobilisation and displacement. In this way, the global community stating that they #standwithUkraine indeed demonstrates incredible international unity in the face of growing Russian hostility, but also misses the psychological, emotional, and tangible effects that this threat poses to the everyday lives of Ukrainian people.

Moreover, war is not a new reality for Ukrainians. Since the annexation of Crimea in early 2014, which immediately followed the societal upheaval of the Euromaidan protests on Kyivs Independence Square from November 2013, citizens of Ukraine have been living under a state of ambiguity due the simultaneous and competing forces of war and peace. Although the occupation of the countrys eastern regions by Russian separatist forces in 2014 did result in a ceasefire and peace agreement in 2015, hostility and tensions did not quickly dissipate.

Still, Ukraine experienced other internal clashes which were mostly nonviolent long before the events of eight years ago as its citizens fought for democracy, freedom, and justice, such as during the Orange Revolution of 2004. Even without considering the socio-economic and political crisis which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the challenges of corruption and cronyism faced by the state in the years immediately following its independence, conflict (or at least, the threat of conflict) has evidently been a constant part of Ukraines and thus Ukrainians narrative for much of its history.

The current threat of war between Ukraine and Russia therefore encourages us to consider how we understand the peace that the international community appears so committed to defending. Whereas peace can certainly be understood as a state of harmony and serenity, the same term is likewise used to describe the periods both immediately prior to and following a conflict.

Yet, the Ukraine case shows us that the absence of war does not necessarily, nor always, equate to the tranquil order also recognised as peace. Both pre- and post-conflict times have still been marked by considerable volatility, anxieties (about both preceding and impending conflict), and feelings of uncertainty and fear at the grassroots. In this way, periods without conflict, although technically more peaceful than the violence and strife of an active battle, paradoxically, see similar grassroots dynamics and comparable psycho-emotive responses as periods of conflict due to the existentialism instigated by the mere threat of war.

Accordingly, it may indeed be both the harmony of, and absence of war in, Europe and the global order that national leaders are currently seeking to protect by preventing active conflict between Ukraine and Russia. But doing so only ensures one type of peace in Ukraine the absence of war as a tranquil order does not exist to be defended, nor has one arguably ever truly been realised in the states thirty years of independence, especially not within the last decade. Hence, while there is very much an urgent need to defend the peace of the Ukrainian state, as well as the entire European continent, the necessity of fundamentally establishing and also defending peace within the Ukrainian state has perhaps never been clearer.

Note: This article gives the views of theauthor, not the position of EUROPP European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: Viktor Talashuk on Unsplash

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The Russia-Ukraine crisis reminds us that the absence of war is not always peace - EUROPP - European Politics and Policy

Todays war is a class war of the super elites, and this can be fought and won by the great masses of people against their own oligarchs.

The American deep state is playing upon the publics distaste of China towards its own ends, and just as with the present global mystery illness, they will blame China for a social credit system which in reality was made in the USA. We can deconstruct the anatomy of this scam through the handling of Covid and biological warfare in general.

This same deep state is trying to springboard or otherwise utilize the incessantly bad behaviour of its own rapacious oligarchy, who it must serve, an oligarchy trapped in a system of capital accumulation at all and any costs, even collective suicide, into some sort of controlled paradigm collapse. The incentive to destroy society is just too great compared to the costs of keeping it together. The super elites themselves, like some super virus, can always just vacate the premises and find some other host to infect. This is a pandemic of speculation, usury, and greed.

An interesting twist which Senator Rand Paul exposed in public hearings on the senate floor, was that the novel Corona virus was produced at Dr. Anthony Faucis discretion. This was a project of the U.S. corporate state, of a corrupted U.S. intelligence agency, we conclude from Senator Pauls findings.

This much is also so well known by now, that its reached the level of common knowledge. But we say it again now not to preach about it, but to connect it to a broader problem with social credit and China.

Digging further, we see it was all based upon long-standing plans to upwards distribute wealth and strip away constitutional rights from citizens, further concentrate socio-economic power, and destroy medium and small businesses. By any definition of the term, this is open class warfare being waged by the ruling class against all other classes.

And so this same ruling class has used the politics of normalized class war to divide and conquer the citizenry along race and gender lines, using new-left tropes, to shift focus away from real economic issues over to abstract identity issues. A portion of the intelligentsia and student/youth are weaponised into a faux progressive militancy against Trumpism, Antifa and BLM and the non-profit industrial complex all connected to Democracy Action and Sorosian wonderworks.

The non-event which was January 6th is used as some sort of newfangled Oklahoma City bombing which only emboldens the parasitic proclivities of the prosecution and investigation power fetishists, which American authoritarianism has allowed to fester in its crevices. Well, a non-event except for the unjustified killing of Ashli Babbitt by Capitol Police. Four officers who died, actually died by suicide within a week of the event. What did they know? Why were they suicided?

Meanwhile the real opponents of Trump are those behind the entire Great Reset and class war of some against all underway right now in the U.S.

And that this is already a burgeoning civil war and inter-elite conflict is also openly known.

On December 20th, CNN ran video under the heading, How close is the U.S. to Civil War? Closer than you think, study says.

The accuracy or motivations of the study itself are neither here nor there, we can develop a superior metric and method probably at random, because the situation is obvious. The real point of interest is that Americas flagship fake news outlet is openly pushing the story. What could the reason for it be?

What was said is of particular interest:

Host: The rigid refusal of lawmakers of compromise underscore the disturbing findings of one study on democracy in the U.S. According to a Washington Post editorial, data from the Center for Systemic Peace finds that the U.S. no longer qualifies as a democracy. After the Trump administration years, its somewhere between a democracy and an autocratic state.

Barbara Walter is a professor of International Relation at the School of Global Policy and Strategy at the University of California at San Diego, she joins me now, Im delighted. When we look at the research its frankly frightening, and you conclude that the U.S. is closer to civil war than any of us would like to Believe. How close?

Barbara Walter: Well Ive been studying civil wars for the last thirty years across the globe, and in fact the last four years Ive been on a task force run by the CIA that tries to predict where outside the U.S. a civil war, political violence, and instability is likely to break out. And we actually know now that the two best predictors of whether violence is likely to happen are whether a country is an Anocracy, and thats a fancy term for partial democracy, and whether ethnic entrepreneurs have emerged in a country that are using racial, religious, or ethnic divisions to try to gain political power. And the amazing thing about the United States is that both of these factors currently exist, and they have emerged at a surprisingly fast rate.

Naturally CNN twists words and reason, and makes implications at odds with the real dynamic now working. The Trump administration years is thrown in to make us think the erosion of constitutional rights was his doing. It was the opposite: it was those opposed to Trump that eroded the republic.

It was the collusion of the Great Reset technocracy, the collusion of the IMF, the WEF and domestic players in the Transition Integrity Project (which we have written so much about), big media, big tech, big pharma, the too big to fail, that subverted a populist movement and their rightful electoral outcome.

They openly bragged about it and showed the receipts. It is not a conspiracy theory, but something already openly confessed.

In truth, a better study from Princeton concluded in 2014 that the U.S. was no longer a Democracy.

A new study from Princeton spells bad news for American democracynamely, that it no longer exists.

Asking [w]ho really rules? researchers Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page argues that over the past few decades Americas political system has slowly transformed from a democracy into an oligarchy, where wealthy elites wield most power.

Using data drawn from over 1,800 different policy initiatives from 1981 to 2002, the two conclude that rich, well-connected individuals on the political scene now steer the direction of the country, regardless of or even against the will of the majority of voters.

Of course Barbara Walter is either a liar or an idiot, probably a bit of both, because there is no correlation between a democracy index and stability. Well, there is a connection: once the U.S. targets a country or region for destabilization, they begin to point out features of its society that are less than the progressive idealist dream of a utopian democracy. An easy task and a useful trick, given that we are in reality and not a dream. Then they go on to lay a trade embargo and other punitive measures, thereby exacerbating the tensions within that society, tensions which all societies in reality actually have.

The intelligence agencies foster gangs, counter-gangs, and political violence in the targeted states, to create failed states. They do this across Africa. They did it in Yugoslavia, in Ukraine, etc.

The idea that democracy and stability are directly related works against the truth exposed in the fact of the general tendency of elites in struggling countries to tilt towards dictatorship, in order to bring stability to the instabilities which democratic institutions are subject to, once broader economic issues come to bear. The optimal situation of course are strong democratic institutions which are both justified by, and in turn support, economic prosperity.

Likewise, the U.S. tilts towards dictatorship not as the result of ethnic entrepreneurs, whatever that means, nor should their appearance (just now?) give us any pause. Rather, the developing system of internal passports, digital IDs, Covid pass, forced vaccination and imprisonment under the pretext of pandemic, these are what ought to, and do, give us cause for great concern.

Which brings us back to China.

The pretext of the virus was certainly used in China towards its own national security ends in the digital age. Russia has done the same. Neither country, however, has promoted vaccines which are experimental, opting instead to use this U.S. manufactured crisis towards its own security advantage. All while not using it to experiment upon the population with untested gene therapies.

But China will do China, and a country so far away and so far out of reach of the will and moral authority of American citizens to be concerned about, is hardly the proper focus of American citizen concerns.

The biggest problem that Americans face is certainly its own deep state and super elite, who seem to have a penchant for bizarre rituals, child abuse, elective warfare, and the fetishization of power dynamics observed under late capitalism.

The focus on Chinas social credit system has a positive effect on western movements against the system insofar as westerners view the developments in Chinese society as negative.

But the blame placed on Chinese society has worked against understanding social credit. While the Chinese social credit system may utilize some of the same technologies as in the U.S., it is different in context, history, and meaning. Most understandable is that Chinas social credit system preferences traditional and socially conservative values, whereas the emergent one in the U.S. imposes bourgeois-libertine values.

While Americans transform their justified fears over social credit, alongside the decline of meaningful work and living standards, into anti-China rhetoric, the focus on China serves as a distraction from what is entirely a domestic and technology-driven phenomenon.

If the lesson drawn is that we must not become like Chinese society, it is missing the mark. China sits in a markedly different position, where its automated industrial production techniques surpass those of the U.S. in many cases, while its large rural population lives in pre-industrial conditions.

Chinas social credit system was initially aimed at big firms: imagine something like a better business bureau and consumer reporting that actually had teeth. Chinas system did not place profitability as the only determining factor for credit worthiness, and given its scale and anonymity, required a numerated system. Imagine if Pfizer, for example, had reduced access to capital because of its criminal activity. Thats exactly the sort of thing that has come about in the Chinese system, one of the few countries that is prone to execute a billionaire oligarch on occasion.

Chinese billionaire businessman, Liu Han was executed after being found guilty of murder and running a mafia-style criminal gang. Credit BBC, February 10, 2015

When Chinas system was moved forward, its aim was to develop a non-monetary credit system for rural inhabitants who are still living in pre-industrial conditions. Its also a massive country, really a civilizational sphere in its own right, with many regions and varying, even conflicting, credit and legal policies.

It is very difficult to implement the modern system of monetary credit when people live on barter, and their psychological motivations relate to not just pre-industrial but pre-modern and onymous social standing.

Bear in mind that China moved through three industrial revolutions within the span of about eighty years, whereas the 1st Industrial Revolution in the U.S. began around 1750.

Big tech mirrors aspects of Chinas social credit system, and there is no doubt that social credit is growing in the U.S. if we compare it to the Chinese system. But thats precisely where we will get it wrong.

In our work on Oriental Despotism and Hydraulic societies, we demonstrated the present push by western elites is to prepare for a transition away from a money-regulated (i.e. labor driven) society. This leads to their need for a social credit system that matches the post-labor age of the 4th Industrial Revolution.

There are certainly Chinese people unhappy with the Chinese social credit system. The broader point is that that is their issue to solve. Its a pattern for other countries elites to blame its internal woes on the U.S. Whatever truth value those claims have are muddied with the convenience it gives, relieving those political elites of their own responsibilities to govern fairly and justly.

Likewise, the focus on the China virus disguises the fact that it was probably created on Dr. Faucis watch, coordinating with Bill Gates and other oligarchs invested in the vaccine mandate scheme.

Social credit works the same. Its far too convenient to misplace both blame and understanding of social credit onto China. Chinese elites, the CCP, the PLA, all have absolutely nothing to do with the growth of social credit on American soil.

Social credit in the U.S. has distinctly American characteristics, based in new-left tropes, backed by American companies and none of the Chinese.

In the U.S., social instability has come about through the logic and process of its own machinations, the socio-economic disparity. The growth of authoritarianism in the U.S. and the implementation of social credit is, if anything, a mitigating force meant to manage the other crises of its own making.

What elites do love to do, however, is blame other countries for their own-goals. When empires collapse, they often like to engage in great resets, often total wars. Todays war is a class war of the super elites, and this can be fought and won by the great masses of people against their own oligarchs. Introducing China as a responsible party for either the mystery virus or social credit, however, will only serve to embolden our own oligarchy in a great distraction from their own crimes and programs.

The author can be reached at FindMeFlores@gmail.com

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The China Distraction and U.S. Destabilization Strategic ...