Category Archives: Socio-economic Collapse

Jonathan Portes summarises his recent article in Political Quarterly on the pension triple lock, arguing that the much-maligned policy has in fact been a success.

In the 1990s, well over a quarter of Britains pensioners lived in poverty. It is now fewer than 1 in 5, while the number of relatively well-off pensioners has risen sharply. Meanwhile, spending on pensions has risen from just under 5% of GDP to about 5.5%, while working age benefit spending has fallen by a similar amount. More broadly, a growing proportion of state spending benefits the elderly, with NHS spending growing much faster than that on education. .

This has focused attention on the triple lock which currently governs the uprating of the basic state pension. Introduced in 2011, it provides that the pension should rise each year in line with earnings, prices, or by 2.5%, whichever is higher. The impact of this has been that the pension has risen by a little more than 10% compared to either prices or earnings since its introduction.

This year the triple lock will again result in an above inflation rise, at a net fiscal cost of up to 2 billion, leading to renewed calls for the triple lock to be ended or scaled back. Politicians remain nervous: neither the government nor the opposition has been prepared to endorse it wholeheartedly or commit to reform.

Criticism of the triple lock has several dimensions:

While there is some truth in these criticisms, they largely miss the point. The cancellation of the earnings link by the Thatcher government meant that the value of the state pension fell from a quarter to a sixth of average earnings by the early 2000s. New Labours response was to address pensioner poverty with more generous means-tested benefits rather than boosting the basic pension. Meanwhile, tighter regulation, lower long-term interest rates and higher taxes led to a progressive collapse in the provision of final salary pension schemes in the private sector, only partially if at all replaced by much less generous defined contribution schemes.

The Pensions Commission, established in 2003, was a response to this collapse. Its key insight was that current policy and existing trends would mean that by the mid-2030s, about two-thirds of all pensioners would be claiming means-tested benefits. Benefit spending would soar. Moreover, this would in turn reduce private pension income and coverage, because of the resulting disincentives to save.

So when the Commission recommended the restoring of the earnings link, in combination with the new system of auto-enrolment into workplace pensions, and progressive rises in the state pension age, the objective was to rebalance the system. First, from a state system that built in an ever-growing reliance on means-tested benefits, back towards one where the universal basic state pension was the key pillar for most pensioners; and second, from a private pension system that provided well for a shrinking minority of public sector (and some very well-paid private sector ones) to one that provided a meaningful supplement to the basic pension. The proposals were a package, and, commanding bipartisan support, the key elements were accepted by the Labour government and implemented and, in the case of the triple lock, supplemented by the Coalition.

Two decades on it is difficult to see the results as anything other than a remarkable success. Pensioner poverty has fallen sharply. Meanwhile, about 11 million people are enrolled in workplace pensions; this has increased future projections of pensioner incomes, and reduced the level of undersaving.

So can we say job done and abandon the triple lock? In short, no. While comparing pension provision across countries is fiendishly difficult, the level of the basic state pension is still relatively low in the UK. Thats not problematic if, and only if, we can continue to build up private provision for most future pensioners. The Pensions Commission analysis that this requires a basic pension at a reasonable level, relative to earnings remains valid. Its hard to believe the right level is below 25%.

And, despite auto-enrolment, the need for the basic pension as a floor for retirement incomes is likely to increase, not decrease; the rapid decline of defined benefit schemes in the private sector means that many middle-income earners will see very sharp drops in income when they retire.

Its true that a rise in the basic pension benefits millionaires. But state pension spending makes up a substantially greater fraction of the incomes of poor and middle-income pensioners. And pensioners with substantial private pension and investment income pay income tax at their marginal rate on any state pension increase. Overall, increasing the state pension is relatively progressive.

And further targeting spending has drawbacks. It requires more means-testing, and that in turn impacts on incentives to save among those on lower and middle incomes. Meanwhile, while it is true that benefit cuts have increased poverty and deprivation for working-age people on low incomes, especially the disabled and those with larger families, this is overwhelmingly an issue of inequality within generations, not between them, as the chart below shows. The UKs unequal society is everything to do with socio-economic status and other structural inequalities like gender and ethnicity and very little to do with age.

Complaints about millionaire pensioners in valuable houses are not misplaced. But the issue here is the perpetuation and exacerbation of inequality not between generations but within them, as the children of those with large housing wealth will benefit at the expense of those unlucky enough not to have well-off parents.

Finally, while demographic pressures are very real, pension spending is not the only, nor even the main component. And the primary issue here is not how to restrict such spending, but how it should be financed and managed, whether through the state or privately.

Its true that there is no logic to uprating by the higher of earnings and prices. Theres a case, when and if the pension to earnings ratio has achieved a level that meets the objectives set out above, for returning to a simple earnings link.

However, in the meantime, a clear political commitment, even if suboptimal, has considerable advantages: it seems highly unlikely that the basic pension would have survived the austerity years unscathed without it. The triple lock isnt perfect; but it has boosted pensioner incomes and helped make the broader UK pension system more sustainable.

By Professor Jonathan Portes, Senior Fellow, UK in a Changing Europe.

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In defence of the state pension triple lock - UK in a Changing Europe

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Magey massina aluth podi viyaparayak patan aragena asarum karapu elavalu saha palathuru geval walata genath denna (My cousin has started a small, new business selling packed vegetables and fruits which can be delivered to your home), he said.

Eh kiyanne eya vyavas yakayek wela (So he is an entrepreneur), noted Serapina.

Eka honda viyaparayak mokada eya sahathika karanawaney asarum karala thiyenne navum eva kiyala (Thats a good business because he is ensuring that when it is packed it means its fresh), said Mabel Rasthiyadu.

COVID-19 kaley podi viyapara kada wetunata honda illumak thibba athya-avashya deval walata (While COVID-19 also saw many small businesses collapse, there was good demand for the supply and delivery of essential items), added Kussi Amma Sera.

Small businesses are an integral, if not, a key part of the Sri Lankan economy. Gone are the days when bankers would frown with disapproval when they spot a shabbily dressed individual coming into the bank, seeking a loan. Now MSMEs (micro, small and medium enterprises) are drivers of economic growth. However, they suffered badly during the pandemic and the ensuing economic crisis and sought and obtained government support and that of banks to delay repayment of loans (with the advent of moratoriums). Some banks also have special grant schemes for MSMEs.

According to the ADB, in Sri Lanka SMEs comprise more than 75 per cent of enterprises and account for more than 20 per cent of exports, 45 per cent of employment and 52 per cent of the countrys GDP (gross domestic product).

President Ranil Wickremesinghes budget also had some focus on MSMEs. It said arecent survey revealed that about 20 per cent of such enterprises have either temporarily or permanently closed down. The survey also revealed a decrease in the performance volume of the currently operating enterprises.

We want to fast track the journey towards a production economy. Therefore, SMEs should be further strengthened, encouraged and facilitated. For this purpose, we are introducing a concessionary loan scheme of around Rs. 30 billion with the support of the ADB, the President said.

He said this programme is the first phase of action which will collectively provide a major impetus to the SMEs. In addition to concessionary credit facilities, capacity development programmes have been implemented for the participating institutions. Steps will be taken to link SMEs with the value chains of large companies in the industrial sector. He said a total amount allocated for the development of SMEs is Rs. 50 billion.

As I walked into the kitchen to get my morning mug of tea and a maalu paan, the phone rang. It was Arty, the intrepid entrepreneur, and the timing of the call was perfect as I also wanted to discuss todays topic on entrepreneurs with an expert.

Recently I read an interesting programme on entrepreneurship organised by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, he said. He was referring to Schoolpreneur 2023: School Entrepreneurship Day launched across Sri Lanka on November 16 by the chamber, the Ministry of Education and the ILO aiming to foster entrepreneurial mindsets among schoolchildren.

The programme will be run across schools in the country, with one district chosen from each province to host the event. The districts are Anuradhapura, Badulla, Colombo, Galle, Kandy, Puttalam, Ratnapura, Trincomalee and Vavuniya

A statement on the event said theinclusion of School Entrepreneurship Day in the annual school calendar is designed to act as a catalyst to promote and highlight entrepreneurism among schoolchildren across Sri Lanka.This initiative is geared towards cultivating an entrepreneurial spirit and a set of skills in youth with the goal of contributing to Sri Lankas sustainable and inclusive socio-economic development.

Small businesses are the drivers of many economies, I told Arty, adding that the US Small Business Administration (https://www.sba.gov) is a gigantic organisation and a useful guide to build entrepreneurship in Sri Lanka.

There is a need to encourage more small businesses as they have a trickle down impact on sustaining small communities, particularly at village level, he said.

What we need is a National Entrepreneurship Council similar to the Export Development Board (EDB) which can be governed by the various trade and business chambers as partners with government facilitation to help grow small businesses and guide MSMEs in all facets of a business, I said.

Many banks are now helping small entrepreneurs. While not wanting to single out any particular bank (as all banks have special MSME schemes), A.K.K. Dias, a Gami Pubuduwa entrepreneur and recipient of the grant, speaking about his long history with a bank said: I was there when this bank branch opened in Kiribathgoda; it was also the first day that I started working with the bank. Over the past 15 years, I have been supported with not just capital but with sound advice to expand my business.

In another programme helping MSMEs, an entity was named Lak Nature a business that manufactures a variety of preservative-free, all-natural, ready-to-prepare food by utilising the abundant supply of fruits and vegetables in Sri Lanka. Lakmini Weerakkody, founder of Lak Nature said, My journey began when I came across a newspaper article on the excessive wastage of fresh produce in Sri Lanka. This inspired me to take action and find a way to utilise and minimise this waste. Im also proud to mention that my factory staff is entirely made up of women, as I strongly believe in empowering and supporting women in the workforce.

There are also special programmes nurturing female entrepreneurs. One such programme is by Hatch which in November 2021 introduced AccelerateHER in partnership with the US Department of State. This initiative serves as an accelerator and gender-focused awareness campaign, with the goal of creating and guiding female entrepreneurs of Sri Lanka. Hatch plans to expand AccelerateHER and many more programmes centred on female entrepreneurship in the hope of being a driving force of economic and social change in Sri Lanka.

As I wound up my column, sipping a second mug of tea and eating another maalu paan, I reflected on the need for a special body like the suggested National Entrepreneurship Council to nurture, guide and develop small businesses in Sri Lanka. There are many examples in the world to follow to build an entrepreneurship culture.

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Driving an entrepreneurship culture | Print Edition - The Sunday ... - The Sunday Times Sri Lanka

NAIROBI, Kenya, Nov 19 The National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) has embarked on a countrywide road safety sensitization exercise as Kenyans head to the festive season.

The authority is undertaking the exercise with key stakeholders as the World Day of Remembrance for Road Traffic Victims 2023 is observed globally.

According to NTSA Director General George Njao, everyone should exercise caution on the roads by observing all the traffic regulations to curb the rising number of accidents and fatalities on Kenyan roads.

How many roads are paved in our country? How many people are we losing every other day if we will not do adjudicating continue for road safety as required? he posed.

The theme of this years day is Remember, Support, Act paying tribute to lives lost in road traffic crashes, acknowledging the efforts of emergency services and advocating for safe roads.

National Authority for the Campaign Against Alcohol and Drug Abuse (NACADA) CEO Anthony Omerikwa cited Alcohol and drug abuse as one of the key contributors of road carnage in the country urging motorists to avoid operating vehicles while inebriated.

Stay away from alcohol and drug use to promote safety on our roads. We shall work closely with NTSA to draw the publics attention to road crashes, consequences and measures to prevent them, he said.

Various victims of road accidents recounted their experiences of survival and overcoming challenges after road crashes.

If you see me standing before you it is a miracle. My hip was completely removed and I survive with an artificial hip. It has taken a lot of time and resources and maybe your family may end up selling everything. The moment you start your ignition, please, your safety starts with you, said Simon Mwangi a road crash victim.

Ruth Ndungu a Nakuru based survivor called the public to get first aid training so that they can be able to help and take care of victims in case of a tragedy occurring.

The pain is too much. You are working then all of a sudden you cannot and everybody has to take care of you, spending everything that you have just to get well. Do not be in a hurry because you will still arrive, she said.

In October, NTSA unveiled the National Road Safety Action Plan (2023- 2027) which aims to achieve at least a 50% reduction in deaths and severe injuries in designated high-risk demonstration corridors and urban areas.

Mohamed Daghar, the Permanent Secretary in the state Department of Transport, emphasized the urgent need for coordinated road safety efforts involving both national and county governments to enhance the safety of Kenyan roads.

We cannot be losing over 4000 people every year, and that is just part of it. We have people with permanent disabilities, we create widows and orphans. We collapse an entire household because the breadwinner is lost. The net effect of this road safety challenge is beyond understanding, he noted.

Road safety remains a critical issue globally, with the World Health Organization (WHO) estimating that over 1.35 million people die annually due to road traffic accidents, making them the leading cause of death among individuals aged 5-29 years and posing significant socio-economic burdens on societies worldwide.

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NTSA embarks on Road safety sensitisation drives as heavy rains ... - Capital FM Kenya

Help keep One Green Planet free and independent! Together we can ensure our platform remains a hub for empowering ideas committed to fighting for a sustainable, healthy, and compassionate world. Please support us in keeping our mission strong.

In the realm of environmental sustainability, understanding the past is key to navigating the future. A groundbreaking study delves into over 150 historical crises to uncover why some environmental shocks lead to disaster while others dont. The findings are clear: societal resilience is not just possible but has historical precedence through socioeconomic and cultural adaptability.

Source: TEDx Talks/YouTube

At the core of resilience lies the ability of societies to come together, embracing cohesion and addressing social inequalities. This insight is crucial as we no longer just aim to halt Climate change but also learn to coexist with its inevitable impacts. The study, published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, encourages a deep dive into our cultural heritage to chart a path forward.

The current global crisis convergenceClimate change, economic inequality, and political polarizationpresents unprecedented challenges. However, by drawing lessons from the past, we can equip ourselves with the knowledge to overcome them. The Crisis Database (CrisisDB), part of the Global History Databank Seshat, serves as a testament to the various responses of past societies to environmental stresses.

For instance, when faced with severe droughts in the 9th century, the Zapotec settlement of Monte Albn in Mexico was abandoned. Yet, this did not spell societal collapse; the community simply transitioned, preserving its essence through an ideological and socio-economic shift. In contrast, the Qing Dynasty in China weathered numerous ecological adversities but eventually succumbed to social pressures by the 19th century.

The Ottoman Empire, between these two extremes, managed to endure harsh environmental conditions, including the Little Ice Age and recurrent droughts, without collapsing, maintaining its structure for centuries.

These divergent historical experiences reveal that a societys fate during an environmental shock is not sealed by the event itself but by its intrinsic cultural, political, and economic dynamics. Reducing social inequality emerges as a pivotal strategy in building societal cohesion and resilience.

As we face increasing ecological disturbances and social challenges, this research highlights the importance of fostering societal cohesion. Such unity can mitigate the impacts of large-scale threats, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, where cohesive societies fared better. Thus, understanding these dynamics from a historical perspective equips us with the wisdom to build a more resilient and sustainable future.

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How We Dealt with Environmental Events in the Past can Help Us ... - One Green Planet

If you were to land in Djibouti right now, you wouldnt fail to notice why the Horn of Africa nation is on the verge of collapse. Little industry, low investment by locals, slow and expensive mobile internet, high cost of basic goods and services and a general mood of sluggishness in a city that acts as a transit point for up to 15 per cent of the worlds oil and commercial trade.

The country boasts housing military bases of eight major powers in close proximity and facilitating 95 percent of goods to and from the worlds biggest landlocked country - Ethiopia. But rampant piracy along its 314 km waterfront has made Djiboutis socio-economic life disheartening.

According to Dr Mukesh Kapila, former director at the United Nations and professor emeritus of Global Health and Humanitarian Affairs at the University of Manchester, the country ranks 171st on the Human Development Index, a sign of poor governance.

Djibouti is an arms trafficking hub with weaponry and munitions from Yemeni and Iranian sources fuelling all conflicts in the Horn and beyond. Unsurprisingly, there is a parallel gold smuggling trade, Dr Kapila writes in the E-International Relations publication.

Djiboutians born after 1999 have known just one face as the president, who leads a system of anarchy that ensures he is reelected in flawed elections. This has kept the country's GDP per capita at only $3,500 with an estimated unemployment rate of 60 per cent and poverty rates of 79 per cent with 42 per cent of the population living in extreme poverty.

The US State Department has denounced the arbitrary detentions carried out by Djibouti's security forces, citing harsh and abusive conditions, including torture and a pervasive climate of fear. Djibouti ranks 130th on Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index, indicating a high level of corruption.

Djibouti's strategic location serves as a hub for criminal activities, with human trafficking for labour and sexual exploitation thriving in a systematically overlooked manner.

Somali and Ethiopian migrants, particularly irregular ones, bear the brunt of this. Irregular Somali and Ethiopian migrants are most impacted with transhipment to Yemen and on to Saudi Arabia. Hostage taking for ransom is documented, Dr Kapila says.

According to the Global Organised Crime Index, Djibouti emerges as a hub for arms trafficking, with weaponry and munitions flowing from Yemeni and Iranian sources fueling conflicts in the Horn of Africa and beyond. Not surprisingly, there exists a parallel trade in gold smuggling. Tragically, even endangered animals are not spared from illicit activities.

For decades, Djibouti has been implicated in the illegal trade of ivory, rhino horns, skins, and wild animals destined for exotic pet markets. These items, originating from places like the Eritrean desert, transit through Djibouti, where they intersect with nesting seabirds and marine turtles.

The country stands as a critical junction for the trafficking of illicit drugs, including heroin and cannabis from Asia. Concurrently, the nation faces its own internal struggle with khat, an amphetamine-like stimulant that consumes a staggering 40 per cent of household budgets, leading to severe health, social, and productivity repercussions.

While khat is banned in most developed countries, it remains legal in Djibouti, contributing 15 per cent to the government budget, with trading cartels fostering corruption. Djibouti's khat economy draws parallels with Afghanistan's poppy business and Latin America's narco-trade, adding to the array of channels facilitating illicit financial transactions due to lax enforcement of anti-money laundering regulations.

The Organised Crime Index reveals the presence of numerous criminal networks in Djibouti, seemingly shielded by a level of impunity linked to profit-sharing with Djiboutian actors. Ironically, despite hosting the headquarters of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional body promoting good governance and prosperity, Djibouti's influence within the organisation appears limited.

Djibouti's exploitation takes diverse forms, exemplified by its control over Lake Assal, a source of high-quality "white gold." Chinese companies, through opaque concessions, have extracted six million tonnes of salt, contributing to Djibouti's external debt exceeding $3 billion, with nearly half owed to China.

Corruption is proving detrimental to Djibouti's stability, jeopardising its key economic assets the strategically significant port and free trade zone, both initially financed by China and now under Chinese management.

The abrupt nationalisation of these assets by the Djibouti government, terminating the management contract with Dubai-based shipping giant DP World, has legal disputes surrounding its legitimacy. The potential loss of these assets poses a significant risk to Djibouti's economy, as billions of dollars hang in the balance, with DP World having secured rulings in courts in London and Hong Kong.

Dr Kapila wonders why the governments of the worlds most powerful nations with deep geopolitical interests in Djibouti cannot offer a helping hand to lift Djibutians out of economic distress.

Their governments are distracted by more pressing wars in the Middle East and Europe, and rising tensions in the Pacific. But they would be rash to ignore Djibouti for the same reason that took them there in the first place, he opines.

But world governments, including the United Nations and Igad, continue to ignore the suffering of Djiboutians who live in a small territory that can be easily governed and flourish like Rwanda or Luxembourg. Why are international organisations turning a blind eye to Djibouti?

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Djibouti is sinking deeper into socio-economic distress. Can the ... - Nation

Author: William J Jones and Douglas L Rhein, Mahidol University International College

The era of Thailands colour-coded politics ended with Thaksin Shinawatras triumphant return. Under the shifting landscape of Thailands political system, this new chapter in Thai politics will be one of political contest between reform and maintaining the status quo.

In the May 2023 Thai general election, the Move Forward Party (MFP) came in first with 151 seats out of 500 and garnered over 14 million votes. Yet, its bid for the Premiership was blocked due to the presence of 250 military-appointed senators.

The MFP won seats in all regions, taking the entire province of Phuket in the South and nearly all seats in Bangkok. The Pheu Thai Party of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra fell short of achieving its expected landslide victory, coming second with nearly 11 million votes.

Thailands six largest conservative parties collectively won 182 seats with 16 million votes. The provincial party Bhumjaithai took the lead with approximately five million votes. This starkly contrasts with the 2019 election, where Palang Pracharath received the largest number of votes, around 8.4 million, and the conservative coalition collectively accumulated approximately 22 million votes.

Most striking is the collapse of support for Thailands longstanding conservative elite parties that have ruled for almost a decade. The decline in support for conservative parties in Thailand is most visible in the drop in votes for the Democrat Party. In 2011, they captured 34 per cent of the vote, amassing 11 million votes prior to the coup in 2014. Their performance in 2023 significantly deteriorated, garnering only 2 million votes and winning 25 seats.

This political transition is due to the near collapse of Thailands oldest establishment party, historic voter turnout for the progressive MFP and former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatras return to Thailand after 15 years.

With the near implosion of the Democrat Party coupled with the diminishing influence of former prime minister General Prayut Chan-o-cha and former deputy prime minister General Prawit Wongsuwon, the Thai Raksa Chart and Palang Pracharath parties may fragment by the next election.

As over half of the 75 members of parliament (MPs) from these parties originally defected from Pheu Thai, they may return home under Thaksin and Pheu Thais patronage. Rumours indicate that during parliamentary voting, a benefactor injected significant funds for these partys MPs, influencing their vote against the party leader and towards the new Pheu Thai Prime Minister, Srettha Thavisin.

The other major group of MPs are former Democrat defectors from Thailands South, who will likely align themselves with Bhumjaitai and Anutin in the next election. With Prayut and Prawit fading from power, no powerful financial supporter has enough resources to keep this many MPs within their fold.

Pheu Thai will likely assume its natural place on the Thai political spectrum as a significant centre-right force alongside Bhumjaitai, a strong provincial right-leaning party. The Democrats may survive but are essentially a memory.

An ironic and unintended outcome is that the greatest benefactor of Thai elite post-election activities will likely be the MFP.

The MFP will establish a strong position in the opposition, where they have been extremely effective over the previous four years. They have succeeded by transforming previously socio-economic issues into political issues. Comparing the MFPs previous four years in opposition to the Democrats, the contrast is striking. The MFP managed to push controversial issues further than the Democrats managed to in 40 years. This is evident from the MFPs submission of numerous proposed laws upon opening the parliamentary session.

The MFP will continue mainstreaming same-sex marriage, ending military conscription, ending liquor monopolies, exposing government corruption and addressing Chinese mafia operations in Thailand.

The MFP will likely receive abundant ammunition for targeting the government over corruption, cronyism and failed election promises. This will provide numerous opportunities to highlight the MFPs core goals of demilitarisation, reducing monopolies and promoting decentralisation. The resulting media spotlight will likely benefit the MFP, strengthening its role as the opposition, garnering greater social support and broadening its voter base. This base will be reinforced by additional defectors from Pheu Thai who recognise that their party no longer represents the rural masses.

Without adjusting their stance on key electoral policies that endanger elite interests, the military, judiciary and existing institutional mechanisms will persist in removing influential obstacles. To maintain political influence, the MFP must develop a broad base of supporters across urban and rural constituencies, who can step up in elections or parliament when their predecessors are incarcerated. The MFP cannot risk becoming a party reliant on personalities. It must remain a party of values with a clear policy platform and a willingness to face challenges.

While the colour-coded politics frequently pitted Bangkok elites against rural forces, the new battleground in the Thai political sphere centres on reform versus the status quo. This is reflected in MFPs refusal to adjust its stance regarding its reform agenda and its readiness for further conflict. With rising personal and public debt and social discontent regarding existing corruption, the next election appears to be the MFPs to lose.

William J Jones is Assistant Professor at Mahidol University International College.

Douglas Lee Rhein is Associate Professor at Mahidol University International College.

Link:

Thailands tectonic political shift - East Asia Forum

Alec Tang is Partner - Sustainable Value at KPMG New Zealand.

OPINION:

September saw the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosure (TNFD) launch its final recommendations for nature-related risk management and disclosure, a significant milestone in the redefinition of business role and responsibilities in addressing our global nature and biodiversity crisis.

Much like the Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations on which they were modelled, the TNFD recommendations send a strong signal about investors growing interest in broader, pre-financial impacts, dependencies and outcomes.

The TCFD recommendations sparked the escalation of climate risks and opportunities up on the business and boardroom agendas and instigated climate-related disclosure regimes such as our own mandatory requirements. It doesnt take much imagination to see where the TNFD recommendations will likely lead.

However, whilst the launch of the TNFD recommendations come at the end of a lengthy development process, we remain early in the adoption and implementation journey.

This affords us an important opportunity to think carefully about our local response to the recommendations, and the lessons we can and must draw from both the strengths and flaws of our climate response as we face up to what is a fundamentally more complex, localised, nuanced issue.

An opportunity that we must proactively seize, given the building global momentum towards a shift in the relationship between business, nature and biodiversity, and the impacts of this on our access to these global markets, even as our own climate response changes tack with a new Government.

At the core of this response must be recognition of the inherent connection between nature and climate, and the imperative to integrate our response to both issues.

The similarity of approach being used to drive business action across climate and nature is not a coincidence. The two issues go hand-in-hand, with the climate challenge we see today being simply a visible expression of what has become a largely extractive relationship with nature.

We have externalised the impacts of production, development and commercial activity in our myopic pursuit of growth-at-all-costs, and the environment be that our climate, or the wider natural and ecological systems that have created a safe operating space for humanity, a term coined by the architects of the Planetary Boundaries concept has borne the brunt of this.

We have forgotten that the natural systems we are reliant on not just for goods, products and services, but also for clean air, water, mental and physical sustenance have finite limits and are all-too-easily degraded from their functioning states.

These natural systems have, unfortunately, also suffered from an inherent ability to flex and adapt, such that the impacts of their degradation have been somewhat invisible until they hit tipping points of collapse, which we are now increasingly seeing.

With all this in mind, exploring and redefining our relationship with nature is not just another corporate sustainability issue for businesses to address, but rather a natural and necessary extension of our climate response.

A climate response that doesnt seek to shift this extractive relationship with nature, doesnt seek to integrate externalities into our economic and capital allocation structures, and addresses the wider implications of our consumptive economy is really only a partial response, and a very surficial one at that.

We cannot hope to solve these interconnected issues in isolation.

It is time to think more broadly and substantively about how we respond to the systemic issues that sit at the core of both.

The good news is that an integrated response to climate and nature also presents significant opportunities, particularly within an Aotearoa New Zealand context.

According to the World Economic Forum, more than half of global GDP, an estimated US$44 trillion of economic value is generated in industries moderately or highly dependent on nature.

In NZ, the picture is even more stark, with the Sustainable Business Council noting that 13 of our top 20 export commodities, constituting more than 70 per cent of the countrys entire export earnings, is dependent on natural capital.

We also have a rebounding visitor economy heavily focused on nature-based experiences.

Shifting our relationship with nature to one in which we better understand these dependencies and nurture operating models that dont just seek to minimise impacts, but that seek to regenerate our degraded nature resources, is critical to creating a more resilient and sustainability economy.

In a recent interview with the Financial Times, Frank Elderson, Executive Board Member at the European Central Bank, said: Destroy nature and you destroy the economy

This is not some kind of a flower power, tree-hugging exercise. This is core economics.

This said, looking just at the reliance of our GDP on natural systems only tells part of the story as any GDP-focused story does, more often than not.

A recent study noted that the ecosystem services associated with the Hauraki Gulf have an estimated total economic value of $5.14 billion per year, of which only $1.75b is explicitly measured in GDP and $3.39b are values such as avoided costs and expressions of public preference for activities like recreation in water of suitable quality.

Lets also not forget that the energy system which drives all aspects of our socio-economic activity is fundamentally dependent on natural resources, be they hydro, wind, solar, geothermal or fossil fuel deposits.

In myriad contexts, we see that a nature-focused approach can deliver both impact reduction and resilience-building for both individuals and organisations, as well as to society at large.

In an urban context, we have seen that green infrastructure solutions and investments in green space, can not only regenerate local biodiversity, but can also significantly reduce the impacts of extreme weather events whilst also creating places for community building and spaces for individuals to restore mental and physical wellbeing.

In a business context, a nature-lens requires the purposeful interrogation of value chain impacts and dependencies, given the broad and location-specific interactions of material sources and natural resources with operations, suppliers and customers. The opportunity to better understand and then maximise real value creation, whilst also minimising risks and value erosion is clear, and a key reason for the significant investor interest in this domain.

The nature momentum is building even beyond the TNFD recommendations, we see initiatives globally and locally placing an increasing focus on nature.

From the European Corporate Sustainability Reporting Direction to our own National Policy Statement on Indigenous Biodiversity and proposed biodiversity credit system.

Importantly, the increase in scale and depth of sustainability disclosure requirements to access key markets, and the growing scrutiny being placed by key customers on supply chain impacts and resilience, is a trend that will only grow with time.

But we must remember that whilst leading with a disclosure lens helps capture business attention, disclosures will only drive a response sufficient to meet the scale of the challenge we face if they lead to tangible transformations that tackle the root causes of our risk exposures.

Business-as-usual with fewer impacts is no longer sufficient if it ever As the Financial Markets Authority noted in its recent information sheet on scenario analysis for climate-related disclosures: if your scenario analysis doesnt lead you to question BAU (business as usual), then you probably havent done it correctly.

For Aotearoa New Zealand, there is another important consideration. The opportunity and imperative is that any response to our nature and biodiversity crisis should be rooted within a Mori worldview, as it is likely incomplete without this insight. It has been acknowledged that a key limitation of the TNFD is its belated engagement with indigenous world views.

It is important that our response in Aotearoa New Zealand doesnt follow the same path with Mori values as a bolt-on.

The response here needs to take the over-arching objectives of the TNFD and rebuild them with a base inclusive of Mori knowledge and values.

Getting this right isnt simply about doing the right thing from a cultural standpoint.

Getting this right presents an opportunity for Aotearoa New Zealand to lead the world in delivering a more holistic, integrated and systems-redefining response to both nature and climate.

Alec Tang is Partner Sustainable Value at KPMG New Zealand

As a Chartered Environmentalist and Fellow of the Institute of Environmental Management and Assessment, Alec Tang has focused his career on addressing the breadth of sustainability challenges and opportunities that are increasingly shaping our communities, society and economy.

This has included a range of leaderships positions in academia, business and the public sector, alongside an active involvement in professional institutions, industry associations and networking groups. His work has ranged from the development of high-level regional strategies on climate change, liveability and wellbeing, incorporating broad stakeholder and community engagement, through to the design of specific delivery programmes and the create of impact measures to gauge their success.

KPMG New Zealand is an advertising sponsor of the Heralds Sustainable Business and Finance report.

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Our climate and nature response: the imperative and opportunity - New Zealand Herald

A security team in Marsabit has launched a manhunt for bandits who killed a police officer and critically injured another in a highway ambush in the Malgis area on the Marsabit-Isiolo Highway Thursday evening.

Marsabit County Commissioner Norbert Komora said the officer succumbed to gunshot wounds sustained following a bandit attack while escorting a Nairobi-bound truck loaded with livestock.

We have dispatched a security team to pursue the bandits who were armed with rifles, Mr Komora said.

The bandits waylaid the truck ferrying 25 head of cattle from Moyale to Nairobi and sprayed the drivers cabin with bullets killing the officer who was in the passenger seat and left his colleague and the driver nursing injury.

The survivors are being attended to at Laisamis Sub-county Hospital while the body of the slain officer was moved to Marsabit County Referral Hospital mortuary.

The county commissioner who doubles as county security and intelligence committee chairperson confirmed that the bandits made away with the two rifles that were in the security officers hands.

A team of regular, rapid deployment and anti-stock theft units has been detailed to comb the area in pursuit of the highwaymen and ensure the guns and ammunition are recovered.

Mr Komora urged to local communities to volunteer any information that could lead to the apprehension of the killers.

This attack came after a long period since Rendille and Samburu community elders counties convened a meeting in January 2023 to invoke a curse on highway banditry.

The invocation known as Faallo among the Rendille or Ldeket among the Samburu brought together politicians, provincial administrators, and security agencies from the two counties.

Speaking during the ritual, Samburu East Peace chairperson Salim Leseshore explained that such invocation is only made as a last resort to deter criminals failing to heed the counsel of traditional elders.

Whoever defied such invocations is bound not to know peace in their lifetime.

The decision was arrived at after a delegation of elders and leaders from Marsabit met their Samburu counterparts at Ndoyo Wasi on January 1, 2023 to find a lasting solution to the highway banditry and cattle rustling that had choked socio-economic development along the Samburu-Marsabit borders.

Leseshore added that the Isiolo-Moyale highway as a crucial component of the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor was intended to benefit the locals economically while offering an optimal transport solution to Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan. However, the bandit menace has made transportation along the highway a risky proposition.

Similar concerns were raised by Marsabit South Peace chairperson Peter Galworsi who lamented the collapse of Merille Livestock Market, a mega project funded by the European Union, USAID, and the Kenya government due to rampant cattle rustling and highway banditry.

The project was intended to secure the regions pastoralists livelihoods by commercialising the enterprise but due to fear of bandit attacks, livestock traders no longer went to the market.

Bandits often waylay vehicles ferrying goods or livestock and mostly target those that are not accompanied by a security escort.

Both Sub-County Deputy County Commissioner Pius Murugu and his Laisamis counterpart Langat Bosek said they will work with the local communities to end criminality and reassured travellers of adequate security patrols to monitor areas considered hotspots.

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Police in Marsabit launch manhunt killers of security officer - Nation

South Africans brace yourself for the next three years! Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana in his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) last Wednesday, like his president a few days earlier, invoked the spirit of Amabhokobhoko with its resilience and resolve which the Springboks so doggedly meted out to the All Blacks in Paris to win the Rugby World Cup for a historic fourth time.

Team Ramaphosa wants to emulate the success of the champion Boks against much greater great odds in reversing and thus transforming the socio-economic fortunes, some would say entrenched woes, of the country.

Messrs Ramaphosa and Godongwana have also repeatedly invoked the spirit of ubuntu as the guiding principle of their policy approach.

The metaphors abound like confetti that of a team and government in union.

At moments when their cause seemed lost, declared Ramaphosa in his address to the nation on his governments economic progress, they fought back and they emerged victorious.

The determination and resilience of our teams have given credence to Madibas words that sport unites the nation. As we confront the many severe challenges in our country, we draw hope and encouragement from the determination and the performance of the Springboks.

Siya Kolisi and his rugby cadres seem to have the values of ubuntu imprinted in their DNA that of uniting the country, playing for the nation, and succeeding in adversity.

The ANC since the elapse of Madibas presidency, has been on a downward spiral, with many of its erstwhile supporters including the late great Bishop Desmond Tutu decrying the moral collapse of the party.

Activists stress the concept of ubuntu has long been hijacked and commercialised, bereft of its meaning of dignity, common humanity, responsibility of individuals to each other the very antidote to unfettered individualism, self-interest and enrichment.

Any moral claim by the ANC to the values of ubuntu rings hollow.

The ruling partys rhetoric does not match its failure in policy delivery in righting the wrongs of apartheid, after its first three terms in office.

South Africans of all political colours will rightly hold him, his president and the ANC to account.

His three core policy objectives are to stabilise public finances while maintaining support for the most vulnerable and protecting front line services; fast track growth-enhancing reforms; and reconfiguring the structure and size of the state, while strengthening its capacity to deliver quality public services.

How many times has a South African finance minister started a speech in the last decade lamenting that the economic outlook over the medium term remains weak, reflecting the cumulative effect of power cuts, the poor performance of the logistics sector, high inflation, rising borrowing costs, and a weaker global environment?

The data of despair is depressing.

The countrys gross debt for the next three financial years is projected by Godongwana to rise to monopoly figures at R16 trillion from R4.8 trillion in 2023/24 to R5.2 trillion in 2024-25 and over R6bn in 2025/26.

Not surprisingly, he now expects gross government debt to stabilise at 77% of GDP by 2025/26, which is higher than the February forecast.

The nauseous bedfellow of rising debt is debt servicing costs.

Over the next three years, debt-service costs as a share of revenue will increase from 20.7% per cent in 2023/24 to 22.1% in 2026/27, rued Godongwana. This translates into debt interest servicing costs of R385.9bn in 2024 alone and cumulatively over the Medium-Term Economic Forecast of a staggering estimated R1.3 trillion, which is unsustainable by any metric save rising revenues.

Godongwana is arming himself with a spate of key laws to achieve his stated objectives to rein in spending of SOEs, municipalities and local government through an Omnibus Bill.

Here he has to be commended for taking on the public spending orthodoxy of the ANC, which seems to be concentrated on social spending beyond the normal vulnerable and disabled cohorts for as many economic segments irrespective of whether the economy can afford it or not.

Parker is an economist and writer based in London

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Odds stacked against Team CR's attempts to emulate champs - IOL

The large-scale real-time battles of the Total War series have been a staple of PC gaming for more than two decades now. However, in 2016, the series crossed a rubicon. Leaving history behind, Total War made a brave step into the world of fantasy with Total War: Warhammer.

This bold move gave us one of the best PC strategy games of recent years. It also marked a point of no return for the venerable series. Where once historically accurate ranks of centurions faced off in their plumed Roman helmets in Rome: Total War, now armies of Orcs, rat-people and elves took to the field, their forces flanked by fantastical beasts and mind-boggling siege engines. Even the boring, vanilla human faction boasts a gun that shoots fireworks.

By adopting Games Workshops off-the-wall Warhammer Fantasy setting, Total War was able to radically enhance the complexity and variety available to players during its setpiece battles. Though the simulation elements of battles are preserved, these new frontiers for the series allowed the games to act as something of a playground for fans old and new.

Built on fantasy tropes from the ground up, the Warhammer setting is designed to accommodate wildly different factions ranging from bog standard humans to flamboyant elves and hyper-aggressive Orcs. The whole thing breeds imagination and playfulness. Want to pit an army of steam tanks against twenty dragons? You can.

In the shadow of this imaginative new direction, the historical Total War games now appear lacking. As much as Total War: Pharaoh's dogged recreation of the Bronze Age Collapse satisfied my inner history buff, having played the Warhammer titles, I couldnt help but feel that something was missing from the mix.

Pharaohs factions are mechanically distinctive and offer players a broad range of paths that they might take to survive. However, the games portrayal of historical figures struck me as bland, and never quite reached the characterful heights of the likes of Civilization 6. This is because Total War has always used conflict and battle to do the talking. During engagements, Ramesses and his honor guard are a distinctive unit, fulfilling a unique role. At court, however, hes just another face, acting no differently to the cavalcade of bland talking heads that make up the games political mechanics.

The scale of the Total War games suits the theatrical melodrama of the Warhammer setting

Total War: Warhammer sidesteps this problem by using broad fantasy archetypes. Faction leaders like the human Emperor Karl Franz or vampire lord Vlad von Carstein are already larger-than-life figures. Spend ten minutes playing as either character and their voice lines, animations, and visual design will tell you everything you need to know.

Franz is an imposing sort, clad in ornate yet hefty armor-plating. He is practical and tough, but also ostentatious. Meanwhile, Vlad is gnarled and sinister, his mottled skin, red eyes, and missing nose telling you exactly what sort of vampire he is: a dark lord who bites first and asks questions later.

The scale of the Total War games suits the theatrical melodrama of the Warhammer setting. Among the morass of interlocking diplomatic trade systems, the individuality of historical figures like Seti and Ramesses is lost. However, much like the punchy and over-the-top designs of characters in Overwatch 2, Total War: Warhammers factions are wildly different. The tension created by these differences propels the game forward, giving players a distinct sense of identity and purpose during campaigns.

Pharaoh does try to take lessons from Total War: Warhammer, albeit with limited success. Representing the culmination of the Bronze Age Collapse, the final act of a Total War: Pharaoh campaign has you battle the onslaught of the Sea Peoples - a coalition of displaced tribal societies from the north. Its a classic endgame crisis in the vein of Stellaris - an existential war that threatens your faction.

Theres plenty of tension to be had here, too. Fighting off waves of northern invaders adds a pleasing extra layer of strategic challenge to the closing acts of a Pharaoh campaign. However, the Sea Peoples Invasion pales in comparison to the endgame crisis from Total War: Warhammer: the invasion of the malevolent forces of the Chaos Gods.

Its telling that Total War: Pharaoh has to sidestep history to provide its most interesting setpiece

This is, in part, because dramatic endgame crises like this are far better suited to fictionalized settings than their historical counterparts. The apocalyptic drama of these events adds zest to fantasy worlds while undermining the historical accuracy of real-world settings. For instance, we know that the Bronze Age Collapse was as much rooted in drought, disease, and migration as it was in flat-out invasion. Though debated by historians, it seems likely that the Sea Peoples arrived not so much to conquer Egypt as they did to mop up the remains of an already-fractured and dwindling empire.

Its telling that Total War: Pharaoh has to sidestep history to provide its most interesting setpiece. By contrast, Total War: Warhammers endgame crisis was firmly rooted both in the emergent narrative of a given campaign and in the setting as a whole. Throughout the game, most factions have to mitigate 'Chaos Corruption,' a sort of magical disease that infects the world as the powers of Chaos grow more threatening.

As the campaign continues, northern tribes loyal to Chaos make increasingly daring raids, before full-on armies loyal to these dark forces emerge. Eventually, Archaon the Everchosen, a Sauron-esque big bad, arrives from the north to lay waste to the land.

Unburdened by history, Warhammer lets you get right to the dramatic battles

Total War: Warhammer doesnt have to worry about ideas of authenticity or accuracy. Socio-economic factors play second fiddle to a sweeping battle between good and evil reminiscent of Tolkiens universe or Dungeons & Dragons. Unburdened by history, Warhammer lets you get right to the dramatic battles and thrilling strategic challenges without bogging you down in the series relatively uninspiring diplomacy or trade mechanics.

In a series thats ultimately all about the battles, the Warhammer setting serves the strengths of the Total War games far better than the non-fictional backdrop of Bronze Age Egypt.

Though the historical Total War titles offered a fantastic springboard for the series and produced classics like Rome: Total War, its the fantastical variety found in the likes of Total War: Warhammer that marks the series future. This isnt to say that Total War has lost the ability to provide satisfying historical experiences, rather it will need to learn the lessons of its wildly successful fantasy titles if it wishes to rekindle the old magic.

Looking to broaden your gaming horizons? Check out our lists of the best single-player games and the best co-op games.

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Total War: Warhammer makes the likes of Total War: Pharaoh feel ... - TechRadar