Category Archives: Russia

To the dismay of many in Ukraine and beyond, Russia has proven more resilient and adaptive than its performance in the early days of the war indicated. I recently returned from my latest visit to Ukraine, where I spoke with government and military officials as well as think tanks and journalists. The most important insight from my visit was confirmation that Russia now has the strategic momentum in the war.

There is a compelling and urgent need for NATO to change from a defend Ukraine policy to one of defeat Russia in Ukraine.

Russia has recovered psychologically from the shock of its early failures. The Russian president and his government now possess a renewed sense of optimism about the trajectory of Russian operations. The Russian military in the past two years has undertaken a transformation in its warfighting capability, something that it should have completed, but did not, in the preceding decade of reform.Russias defence industry has significantly increased the output of military materiel while also exploiting Cold War stockpiles and regenerating moth-balled factories.

Russia began the war with maximal objectives but without the military capacity to achieve them. Now, it appears capable of generating the human, materiel and informational resources to subjugate Ukraine in a way it was not capable of when it began its large-scale invasion in February 2022.

Both sides have demonstrated an ability to learn and adapt. Ukraine has arguably shown a superior capacity to undertake tactical or bottom-up adaptation. This has seen it generate an advantage in areas such as drones. Russia has proven superior in strategic adaptation, particularly in areas such as the mobilisation of people and expansion of its industrial output.

Russia is now a more dangerous adversary than it was two years ago. This calls for change in how the war is fought.

The first area where Ukraine and its supporters must change is war strategy. Until now, the West has adopted a strategic posture focused on defending Ukraine. This ensured the survival of Ukraine until now, but the revived and more dangerous threat of Russia means defending Ukraine is now a strategy for defeat.

The Russian president and his government now possess a renewed sense of optimism.

There is a compelling and urgent need for NATO to change from a defend Ukraine policy to one of defeat Russia in Ukraine. At the same time, Ukraine needs to develop and share with its supporters its theory of victory. One official in Kyiv told me there is no clear vision of how Ukraine will win. A new Ukrainian theory of victory must be a foundational element of any revised Western strategy.

The resources necessary for such a strategy will mean higher defence budgets, increased orders from defence industry, and significantly increased aid to Ukraine. However, given the threats made by Russian officials against Finland, Sweden, the Baltics and other European nations, the cost of not resourcing a defeat Russia in Ukraine strategy may be an order of magnitude greater in the long run, should Russia defeat Ukraine.

Another area where rapid change is necessary is strategic communications. While confronting Russian misinformation activities is the responsibility of all democracies, Ukraines strategic messaging must evolve. Ukrainian influence campaigns in the first 18 months of the war were exemplars of the art of strategic communications. But, the convergence of a failed counter-offensive, a recent civil-military crisis, the shift in attention to Gaza, and the political debate over mobilisation has resulted in significantly less focus on Ukraine by global media and Western publics.

Ukraine needs to discover a new voice that explains the importance of its defence, why Western support is vital, and that Russian narratives about inevitable victory are wrong.

The situation is grim. The challenge of a vastly improved Russia has been magnified by shortfalls in foreign military aid, especially from the United States but also countries such as Australia. There are, however, aspects of the war that offer a foundation for an evolved Ukrainian strategy and influence campaign.

Ukraines maturing strategic strike complex - the combination of intelligence, military planning, and aerial and maritime drones to strike Russian targets at long range - is making significant progress in the Black Sea as well as against Russian airfields and oil refineries. This capacity, which is improving in its reach and effectiveness, will be a key part of future Ukrainian operations. The development of this strike complex has been an extraordinary achievement in the past two years.

Ukraines defence industry has also seen rapid development in the past two years. After being allowed to wither as the Soviet Union dissolved, there is a new focus on indigenous military research and production. Between 2022 and 2023, the value of military materiel produced in Ukraine tripled. This then doubled in the past year. Artillery production tripled in the past year, and Ukraine now produces hundreds of thousands of small drones as well as thousands of large drones with increasing range and larger warheads.

In a recent interview with Ukrainian media, President Zelenskyy said his nation would find it very difficult to get through 2024 without more help from foreign supporters. This is a challenging diagnosis for those who have supported Ukraine with military, financial, humanitarian and diplomatic aid. With their expanding defence industry, strategic strike capability and changes to personnel mobilisation and allocation, Ukraine has a firm foundation to reconstitute for future offensives. But realising this potential will need a change in strategy and a greater degree of support and risk-taking from Western nations.

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Ukraine war: How to check Russia's momentum - The Interpreter

KYIV Ukraines parliament approved legislation Thursday that officials say will simplify conscription, aiding an expected mobilization that could press hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian men into the fight against Russias invasion.

As Western aid has slowed, including a $60 billion U.S. package stalled in Congress for six months, Ukraines armed forces have been struggling with a severe shortage of soldiers, ammunition and weapons allowing Russia to advance on the battlefield.

Ukraines unicameral parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, voted overwhelmingly for the mobilization measure, with 283 votes in favor, one opposed and 49 abstentions, according to a Telegram post by Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a lawmaker from the opposition Holos party, that included a photo of the voting results.

The measure, which has not been published in full, clarifies who is exempt from the military draft while generally simplifying the process. It still needs President Volodymyr Zelenskys signature.

However, it does not address two of the most contentious issues: how many soldiers ultimately will be drafted, and whether those who have served since the start of Russias invasion, more than two years ago, should be discharged.

Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the countrys former commander in chief, had said Ukraine needed to call up as many as 500,000 fresh troops to counter Russias superior number of forces.

This, combined with Moscows overwhelming firepower, has resulted in Russian troops advancing along the front line, including seizing the long-embattled eastern city of Avdiivka.

However, Zelensky has resisted calls for half a million to be conscripted, which risked setting off public backlash. Discussion over who and how many people to mobilize has proved divisive in a society that otherwise has united against a common Russian foe.

Disagreement over the issue between the president and his top general contributed to Zelenskys dismissing Zaluzhny in February. Zaluzhnys replacement, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, said in a recent interview that the number of soldiers Ukraine will mobilize was significantly reduced from 500,000 after conducting a personnel audit.

Neither Syrsky nor Zelensky have specified a new figure, and its unlikely they will. Mobilization is unpopular. While most Ukrainians are highly supportive of the military and recognize that more men are needed at the front, few who havent volunteered to fight after more than two years of war want to do so now. Announcing that hundreds of thousands of men could be drafted risks stoking panic.

Zelensky has said he recognizes that the countrys armed forces need reinforcements which he said would help bolster Ukrainian positions as well as counter a Russian disinformation campaign claiming that Ukrainians do not want to fight.

This claim has found a foothold among some Republican members of the U.S. Congress, who have blocked the aid package proposed by President Biden.

Zelensky said in an interview on Ukrainian television Saturday night that the Russians raised this issue in the West in such a way that today [Western officials] ask us, If you dont want mobilization, the parliament doesnt want to vote, then why do you need help?

On Sunday, Rep. Michael R. Turner (R-Ohio), who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, said it was absolutely true that some Republican members of Congress were repeating Russian propaganda, though he did not specify whom he had in mind.

Last week, Zelensky signed a law lowering the draft age to 25 from 27, in another bid to replenish Kyivs badly depleted troops.

On Thursday, parliament also voted to remove a provision from the new mobilization measure that would limit soldiers tours of duty to three years. Existing Ukrainian law says those fighting must serve until the war is over.

Zelensky had publicly said demobilization something families of soldiers have been pushing for is a priority for him. But with Kyivs military ranks already depleted, its unclear how Ukraine could afford to demobilize so many troops.

The general staff of Ukraines armed forces had requested that the language about demobilization be removed and resubmitted within eight months as a separate measure on troop rotation, Defense Ministry spokesman Dmytro Lazutin told Ukrainian television Wednesday.

We cannot make hasty decisions now, Lazutin said. It is certain that there are many, many populist opinions. At the same time, we must understand that the escalation of Russian aggression continues, the offensive is literally on the entire front line, and it is impossible to weaken the defense forces at the moment.

Isabelle Khurshudyan and Serhii Korolchuk contributed to this report.

Continued here:

Ukrainian parliament adopts law to expand military draft - The Washington Post

The Russian Orthodox Church has approved a remarkable new document that spells out the Kremlins intention to destroy Ukraine while also making the ideological argument for a broader confrontation with the Western world. The decree was issued during a March 27-28 congress of the World Russian Peoples Council, which is headed by Russian Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill. It calls the invasion of Ukraine a Holy War with the explicit aim of extinguishing Ukrainian independence and imposing direct Russian rule.

Churches often issue decrees stating official positions on key issues, but rarely do these proclamations involve calls to violence or territorial ambitions. Russia is mentioned 53 times in the 3000-word document, underlining the very clear focus on the Russian states earthly interests. From the spiritual and moral point of view, the Special Military Operation is a Holy War, in which Russia and its people are defending the single spiritual space of Holy Russia, the document states, using the Kremlins preferred euphemism for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The decree goes on to stress Ukraines status as part of the wider Russian World, while underlining the need to extinguish Ukrainian statehood once and for all. Following the conclusion of the current war, it states, the entire territory of modern Ukraine should enter Russias exclusive zone of influence. The possibility of a political regime hostile to Russia and its people existing on this territory must be completely excluded.

The sentiments expressed in this recently approved document expand on previous statements made by Patriarch Kirill since the onset of Russias full-scale invasion more than two years ago. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church has frequently asserted that Ukrainians and Russians are one nation, and is widely viewed as a key ideological supporter of the war. Kirills comments have led to widespread criticism, including a warning from Pope Francis to avoid becoming Putins altar boy.

The new decree positions Russias invasion of Ukraine as part of a larger spiritual struggle against the West, which it accuses of having fallen into Satanism. This is strikingly similar to the ideological arguments favored by Islamist radicals, who have long sought to portray the United States and other Western nations as Satanic as part of efforts to justify their extremist agenda. In addition to the Russian Orthodox Church, numerous senior Kremlin officials have sought to frame the war in Ukraine as an existential fight with Western Satanism. In a further chilling echo of the Islamist doctrine, Patriarch Kirill has also claimed Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine would have their sins washed away.

The Russian Orthodox Churchs endorsement of language more typically associated with religious extremism should come as no surprise. After all, the entire Russian invasion of Ukraine has been framed as a crusade from the very beginning. Following the 2014 seizure of Crimea, Putin compared the occupied Ukrainian peninsula to Temple Mount and spoke of its spiritual importance to the Russian nation. He routinely insists Ukrainians are actually Russians (one people), and has labeled Ukraine an inalienable part of our own history, culture, and spiritual space.

The recent confirmation of a holy war against Ukraine and the West comes at a pivotal point in Russias full-scale invasion. Since February 2022, Putins invading army has been unable to overcome Ukrainian resistance or break the countrys will to defend itself. With little current prospect of a decisive military breakthrough, the Kremlin is now turning increasingly to terror tactics, including a sharp escalation in the bombing of Ukrainian cities and the methodical destruction of Ukraines civilian power grid.

By defining the invasion in explicitly spiritual terms, the Russian Orthodox Church hopes to whitewash the war crimes being committed in Ukraine and encourage more ordinary Russians to volunteer. Moscows recent declaration of a holy war also sends an unmistakable message to anyone in the West who still believes in the possibility of striking some kind of compromise with the Kremlin. While Putin initially sought to justify the invasion as a pragmatic response to the growth of NATO, it is now apparent that he views the war as a sacred mission and will not stop until Ukraine has been wiped off the map of Europe.

Brian Mefford is the Director of Wooden Horse Strategies, LLC, a governmental-relations and strategic communications firm based in Kyiv, Ukraine. He is a senior nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council.

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Image: Military personnel at Alexander Nevsky Square carry an icon during the festive celebrations after the religious procession along Nevsky Prospekt. On September 12, a religious procession was held dedicated to the Day of Transferring the Relics of the Holy Blessed Prince Alexander Nevsky to St. Petersburg. A festive service was held under the leadership of Metropolitan Barsanuphius. Thousands of people carried the Kazan Icon of the Mother of God along Nevsky Prospekt, which was closed to traffic. Also for the holiday, His Holiness Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Rus' arrived in St. Petersburg to lead the celebrations in the Alexander Nevsky Lavra. (Photo by Artem Priakhin / SOPA Images/Sipa USA)

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Russian Orthodox Church declares Holy War against Ukraine and West - Atlantic Council

Russias influence over far-right/ racially or ethnically motivated violent extremist (REMVE) milieus in Europe is multi-faceted and complex. It involves direct activities, such as financing or political support, as well as indirect activities, such as disinformation campaigns. In some cases, Russia was associated, albeit remotely, to some far-right violent incidents in Europe, including the alleged coup attempt by the sovereign movement Reichsburger, in Germany. Recognising the increasingly confrontational policy of Russia vis--vis Europe, and the growing threat from far-right extremism in Europe, this book thoroughly and systematically reviews Russias relationship with diverse far-right actors in ten European countries over the past decade. The countries covered in this book include Austria, The Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, and Sweden. The chapters are authored by some of the worlds most authoritative experts on extremism and Russian influence.

Overall, this edited volume is the first such comprehensive attempt at mapping the scope and depth of Russian influence over far-right extremism in Europe, resulting in the identification of key patterns of influence and offering some possible recommendations to counter it. This book is a both a leading scholarly work, as well as a wake-up call and guide for action for European policy-makers.

The full table of contents is available here.

You can also fill out the survey by clicking on this link

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Russia and the Far-Right: Insights From Ten European Countries - International Centre for Counter-Terrorism - The Hague

The Russian air force has lost just one-tenth of its fleet while many of its military capabilities remain largely unaffected after more than two years of war in Ukraine, the top U.S. commander in Europe told Congress on April 10.

We do not see significant losses in the air domain, especially their long-range and strategic aviation fleets, Army Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command and NATOs Supreme Allied Commander, said during a House Armed Services Committee hearing.

Russias strategic forces, long-range aviation, cyber capabilities, space capabilities, and capabilities in the electromagnetic spectrum have lost no capacity at all. The air force has lost some aircraft, but only about 10 percent of their fleet, Cavoli added in his written testimony to the committee.

There is no question that Russias invasion of Ukraine has come at an enormous cost in blood and treasure. Russia has lost more than 2,000 tanks and suffered 315,000 casualties in the conflict, Cavoli testified. The full-scale invasion has cost Russia $211 billion to equip, deploy, maintain, and sustain its forces in Ukraine, added Celeste Wallander, the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs.

But Russias efforts to rebuild its military and the Kremlins decision to acquire drones from Iran and ballistic missiles from North Korea have boosted Moscows fortunes on the battlefield.

Russia launches very large-scale attacks every few days keeping with their production rate, Cavoli said of Russias aerial barrages. They produce, they save up, they launch a big attack.

In the short term, Russia has sought to gain the edge in Ukraine in what has become a battle of attrition, though the Russians ability to integrate air, land, and sea capabilities also has its limitations.As U.S. military aid for Kyiv has remained stalled in the U.S. Congress, Russia is using one-way attack drones and long-range missiles to try to overwhelm Ukraines air defenses.The Russians are currently firing five times as many artillery shells as Ukraine, and Moscows advantage will grow without fresh military supplies from the U.S.

That will immediately go to 10-1 in a matter of weeks, Cavoli said. We are not talking hypothetically.

In the long term, Russia is striving to develop its global capabilities. Russia has poured resources into its nuclear forces. It is also looking to expand its conventional ground forces in the years ahead.To do so, Russia has raised the upper age for conscription from 27 to 30, which has enlarged the pool of potential conscripts by 2 million. It is also planning to restructure ground forces so that it can deploy new formations in Ukraine and opposite Finland, Cavoli told lawmakers.

Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested, Cavoli said. The army is actually now largerby 15 percentthan it was when it invaded Ukraine.

While Russias navy has suffered significant losses in the Black Sea, the rest of its naval forces are intact and its worldwide naval activity is at a peak, the NATO commander added.

Ukraine has achieved some success against Russias air force, known as the VKS, including taking down at least two of Russias A-50 Mainstay command and control aircraft.

But Russian aircraft have generally adapted by staying out of the engagement zone for Ukraines air defenses, many of which have been Western-provided. U.S.-made F-16s, which will provide greater capability for the Ukrainian air force, are months away. Relying on standoff weapons, Russian bombers have stayed clear of Ukrainian air defenses. When Russian warplanes have ventured into Ukraines airspace, they adjusted their tacticsand so has Ukraine.

What we saw at the beginning of the war were if they got within range of those surface-to-air missiles, they got shot down on both sides, a senior U.S. defense official told Air & Space Forces Magazine in February. That changed soon after the invasion.

Instead of coming from high altitude where the surface-to-air missile can see you and then shoot long-range shots, theyll come in at low altitude, where now they cant see it because of the curvature of the earth, then come out of low altitude, jump up, drop their bombs, and go out right away, the defense official added. They werent doing that at the beginning, but thats obviously a lesson that they learned.

Link:

Russian Air Force Has Lost 10 Percent of Fleet in Ukraine - Air & Space Forces Magazine

France's economy ministry said the Russian LNG issue is neither about TotalEnergies' contract or activities, but about the opportunity and risks of imposing new sanctions for the entire European Union.

But experts arent buying it.

Nguyen, the analyst, laid out a multi-tiered argument. One, alternative imports do exist, two, French industry is now consistently using less gas since 2022 and three, national storage levels are higher than last year's. Taken together, that lowers the risks of supply shortages.

At the EU level, too, the bloc could replace its Russian imports with deliveries from places like the U.S., said Aura Sabadus, a senior gas market analyst at the ICIS market intelligence firm, even if an immediate LNG ban may lift prices.

The debate comes as the European Commission, the EUs executive, begins preparations for yet another sanctions package against Russia, its 14th.

But LNG is unlikely to feature in that package, despite repeated requests from the Baltic countries and Poland. Hungary has historically opposed measures on gas, and all 27 EU members must approve sanctions.

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France talks tough on Ukraine while gobbling up more Russian gas - POLITICO Europe

The Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, has brought a glimmer of hope to supporters of the Ukrainian war effort. He suggested to Fox News on March 31 that he would try to rally his divided party behind the REPO Act. That piece of legislation would allow President Biden, working with European allies, to seize Russian currency reserves frozen in the West and use them to aid Ukraine.

Grabbing these reserves would be politically convenient. Since Russias invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and its allies have thrown more than a quarter-trillion dollars into the war, to little ultimate effect. Ukraine has lately suffered a string of battlefield defeats. Prolonging the war is a project that Americans of all political leanings have been steadily less willing to fund through taxes.

Mr. Johnson backs Ukraines war effort and sees supporting it as a responsibility of American leadership. But his caucus more in tune with the Republican voter base has stymied him. The REPO Act might offer both Mr. Johnson and Mr. Biden a way to duck controversy.

Thus far, the idea of supplying Ukraine through a spending bill has brought scorn from congressional Republicans who wonder whether Americans taxes wouldnt be better spent on defending the U.S.-Mexico border. The REPO Act, by contrast, could make Russia foot the bill for its own aggression, as a group of Brookings Institution scholars puts it. Mr. Johnson calls it pure poetry. It is a tempting idea.

But it is a bad one. In any free country there is a constitutional wariness of allowing the government to do anything without levying taxes, for good reason. Taxes and accountability go together. Generally, if citizens arent paying for a government program through taxes, they are paying for it in some less straightforward way by taking on debt, for instance, or permitting an outsize governmental role for some corporation or other private interest.

The REPO Act carries additional risks. The very act of seizing Russian assets would pose dangers to the U.S. economy, because other countries, not just Russia, would view it as an act of brigandage. This could weaken the dollars status as the main global reserve currency.

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Opinion | Everyone Wants to Seize Russia's Money. It's a Terrible Idea. - The New York Times

Maladaeva said people have been receiving threats online, urging them to go back to [their] place. Some Russians of Asian origin, along with indigenous Russians, are now considering migrating to Central Asia, according to messages that Indigenous of Russia Foundation has received from its subscribers.

Putin as always has distanced himself from this discussion to maintain the image of a moderate president who represents all 195 of Russias ethnic groups.

Russia has always been a multi-ethnic and multi-confessional country; it was created that way. The diversity and strength of our common homeland Russia have been and still are in the mutual enrichment of cultures, traditions, and religions, he said in 2015 at the opening ceremony of the Moscow Cathedral Mosque.

Shortly after invading Ukraine in February 2022 Putin added: I am a Russian person. But when I see examples of such heroism [by non-ethnic Russians in Ukraine], I want to say: I am a Lakian, I am a Dagestani, I am a Chechen, an Ingush, a Russian, a Tatar, a Jew, a Mordvin, an Ossetian. All [of the] more than 300 national and ethnic groups of Russia simply cannot be enumerated.

But in reality, the persecution of migrants the majority of whom come to Russia from Central Asian countries is a top-down operation.

Russias Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov reported to Putin on March 26, without evidence, that the number of crimes committed by migrants in Russia had jumped 75 percent in 2023.

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Russia's migrants and ethnic minorities shiver at new Putin terror crackdown - POLITICO Europe

Ukraine has conducted a series of audacious attacks deep inside Russia against military and economic targets, including at least two drones striking a training facility on Tuesday. Ukraine has used drones to attack Russia before, even striking the Kremlin itself, but Ukraine has never used so many drones in such a short space of time and has never before reached this deep into Russian territory. For over a month, Ukraines one-way attack (OWA) drone program has targeted Russias production facilities, oil infrastructure, and some of the airbases that facilitate Russias missile strikes.

OWA drones like the ones Ukraine uses force defenders to ask hard questions. The first is how do you preserve an expensive and limited stock of air defense missiles? The (relatively) low cost of the drones means that intercepting every single one at a cost comparable to the drone is often difficult. On the other hand, failing to intercept them can be even more costly. Ukraines successful drone strikes since the start of the war have destroyed millions of dollars worth of Russian equipment. The other question for defenders is how much air defense can be spared from the intense fighting at the front to protect targets in the rear? Stationing air defense away from the fighting makes it harder for a military to protect its troops from drones and aircraft.

Russian leaders are in the difficult position of trying to determine where air defense is most needed across thousands of miles of territory. The in-land attacks mean that citizens across the countryalready feeling the strain of military recruitment drives and a war-time economyare being confronted by the true cost of the war in a way that Putin had never imagined when he launched a Blitzkrieg assault on Ukraine two years ago.

Not all of Ukraines drone attacks are equally damaging to Russia. Of the three recent types of targetsoil infrastructure, airfields, and production facilitiesthe attacks on Russias oil industry caused the most extensive damage. Ukrainian officials told the press that their attacks likely disrupted 10 percent or more of Russias refining capacity. Refineries can be repaired of course, but not all facilities struck are back online, and Russias oil industry is doubtlessly asking itself how many more attacks Ukraine has in store.

Ukrainian attacks on airfields, which tend to be better defended, were less successful. On March 20, Ukrainian drones attacked Engels airbase, from which Russia launches some of its deadliest missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. However, theres no confirmation from Ukraine or Russia that they hit the airfield. On April 5, Ukraine launched a larger attack against three airfields across Russia, including the Morozovsk airfield. Ukrainian officials initially claimed to have destroyed as many as six Russian fighters at Morozovsk, which would have been a stunning success. However, later satellite imagery of the airfield didnt show any destroyed aircraft.

Ukraines biggest successes with OWA drones tend to come against sites with limited air defense. On April 2, Ukrainian drones attacked Alabuga, where Russia assembles and manufactures Shahed drones in a large complex of buildings. Footage posted to social media showed a dronethat appeared to be a small plane converted into a dronefly into the facility. Officials from the facility later confirmed at least one hit to the complexs dormitory.

The repurposed plane is strange, but not out of character. Ukraines OWA drones vary wildly across the different models. Several different firms in Ukraine produce them and some may have been supplied from abroad. On the cheaper end, one kind of Ukrainian drone is constructed from cheap materials like plywood, plastic bottles, and pipes. Most of Ukraines drones are economical by military standards due to limited funding and access to advanced components. For instance, nearly all Ukrainian OWA drones use a propeller for propulsion, since they are cheaper. On the pricier side, several Ukrainian drones appear to have a jet engine for propulsion. On April 7, Russians near Belgorod spotted Ukrainian drones powered by jet engines heading to attack an unknown target. Jet engines are harder to procure in bulk, but are significantly harder to intercept than their slower cousins.

Ukraines attacks obviously have positive impacts in the war effort, but they have received a mixed reception from some of its international partners. U.S. officials have stated several times that they dont support or enable Ukrainian strikes into Russia. American rhetoric on drones echoes the longstanding debate for the Biden administration on the provision of long-range weapons that Russia might perceive as escalatory. U.S. leaders have often shifted their opinion on what weapons are escalatory, but are seemingly not yet ready to do so in this case. Regardless, it does not appear that the Biden administration is substantively changing its stance towards Ukraine as a result of the strikes, though further aid is still stymied by uncertainty in Congress.

Other partners may be less worried. For instance, the U.K. has promised and delivered different kinds of drones to Ukraine in the past year. One that started as an unarmed target drone with the potential to serve as an effective OWA drone, the Banshee, has been spotted in Ukraine. Between Ukraines indigenous drone production and potential support from partners, Ukraines strikes into Russia are starting to make Russian defense officials just as concerned about protecting their skies as the Ukrainians.

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New Plot Striking the Heart of Russia Is Nightmare for Putin - The Daily Beast

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Russian forces were throwing everything they can at Kyivs troops fighting to retake land in the south and east, again emphasizing the grueling nature of a counteroffensive that is moving more slowly than some allies had hoped and later stressing the importance of their continued support.

Ukrainian troops have made only small gains since launching the widely anticipated campaign in June, and in recent weeks, they appear to have stalled in some areas in the face of staunch Russian defenses. Casualties are mounting, and American officials have said that Ukraine has also lost newly provided Western armored vehicles in field after field of land mines.

Mr. Zelensky, who has defended the pace of the counteroffensive, said in his nightly address late Friday that he had had a detailed meeting earlier in the day with his top commanders to discuss the front lines and logistics including weapons and the rational use of shells, supplies from partners, an apparent reference to the rate at which Ukraines forces are expending ammunition.

We must all understand very clearly as clearly as possible that the Russian forces on our southern and eastern lands are investing everything they can to stop our warriors, he said. Every thousand meters of advance, every success of each of our combat brigades deserves gratitude.

Mr. Zelensky has repeatedly pressed his Western allies for increasingly sophisticated weapons, and he secured new pledges this week from allies at the NATO summit in Lithuania, including long-range missiles from France and more tank ammunition from Germany. But it was not immediately clear how soon those weapons would arrive, or how significant a boost they could provide for the counteroffensive.

One ally that has resisted sending weapons to Ukraine is South Korea, whose president, Yoon Suk Yeol, arrived in Ukraine on Saturday for an unannounced visit. In a statement after his meeting with the South Korean leader, Mr. Zelensky made no mention of whether they had discussed lethal military assistance.

But he later acknowledged the diplomatic blitz of the last week, listing all the allies hed met and saying in a Twitter post that he was grateful to every leader, every politician, public figure, every country who really supports Ukraine.

Mr. Zelenskys choice of words bore particular resonance, coming just days after some allies suggested he demonstrate more gratitude for the billions in military assistance already offered.

When the speed of ending the war directly depends on global support for Ukraine, we are doing everything possible to ensure that such support is as intensive and meaningful as possible, he said on Saturday evening.

The United States has acknowledged that Ukrainian forces are running low on ammunition, which was one reason that President Biden gave in agreeing last week over the objections of allies to send cluster munitions to Ukraine. The weapons are highly dangerous for civilians and are outlawed by all but a few countries, including the United States, Russia and Ukraine.

While the cluster munitions have started arriving in Ukraine, American officials and military analysts have warned that they probably will not be an immediate help.

Ukraines top commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, told The Washington Post in an interview published on Friday that his military was still lacking the necessary resources to defeat Russia and criticized allies who have argued that it does not need F-16s.

The defense ministers of Denmark and the Netherlands announced this past week that they had gathered 11 countries to help train Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets as soon as next month. Mr. Biden agreed in May to drop his objections to giving F-16s to Ukraine, though that may not happen until next year.

Ukraine has also been asking the United States for long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems, which have a range of about 190 miles about 40 miles more than missiles that France and Britain are providing. American and European officials have said that the Biden administration, after months of maintaining it would not provide the weapons for fear of further provoking Russia, is considering whether to send a few to Ukraine.

While Mr. Yoons visit to Ukraine did not appear to have changed Seouls stance on weapons, the trip was a notable show of support.

Seoul, which is reluctant to openly antagonize Moscow, has declined to send lethal aid and has imposed strict export control rules on its global weapons sales. It has also provided humanitarian aid and financial support to Ukraine for mine removal, power grid restoration and reconstruction projects.

However, Mr. Yoon has indicated that Seoul might be willing to consider sending Ukraine military aid in the event of a large-scale attack on civilians.

He visited the towns of Bucha and Irpin which became synonymous with Russian atrocities in the earliest days of the invasion upon arrival on Saturday, Mr. Yoons office said, and then met with Mr. Zelensky.

After the meeting, Mr. Zelensky said he was grateful to Mr. Yoon for supporting Ukraines efforts for peace and security along with new initiatives of financial, technical and humanitarian support.

In the meantime, Ukraines military continued to report fierce fighting in the countrys south and east, saying that Russian forces in southern Ukraine were focused on preventing the further advance of Kyivs troops fighting in the direction of two Russian-occupied cities, Melitopol and Berdiansk.

Heres what else is happening in the war:

Russian shelling killed one man and injured another in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine, the regional military administration said in a statement.

Some Wagner troops appear to have started to relocate, with a convoy of dozens of vehicles seen in a video verified by The Times driving on a highway in Russia, possibly toward Belarus. Questions about the fighters future have swirled since a deal to end their mutiny in Russia last month included an arrangement for voluntary exile in Belarus.

Aleksandr Kots, a war correspondent for the Russian tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda, posted videos on Saturday showing the convoy moving north in western Russia. Many of the vehicles were flying Russian and Wagner flags, and they were being escorted by a Russian police car.

Furthermore, a monitoring group in Belarus that tracks troop movements said on Twitter that a large convoy carrying Wagner fighters was seen entering Belarus from Russia early on Saturday. The column included at least 60 vehicles, and it appeared to be headed toward Asipovichy, a town about 55 miles south of the capital, Minsk, according to the group, Belarusian Hajun Project. Ukrainian television has reported Wagner mercenaries have been training conscripts there. The report that the troops are in Belarus could not be independently confirmed, and it remains unclear if the videos seen by The Times were of the same convoy reported by the Hajun group. However, a satellite image captured Saturday by geospatial intelligence company BlackSky and analyzed by The Times shows what appears to be new vehicles or shipping containers near garages at the recently built military field camp in Asipovichy.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia told President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa in a phone call, two days before a U.N.-brokered agreement that enables Ukraine to export its grain is set to expire, that commitments to Moscow set out by the deal remained unfulfilled, the Kremlin said.

Russia has repeatedly threatened to pull out of the deal, complaining that Western sanctions have restricted the sale of its agricultural products. The conversation comes as South Africa grapples with Mr. Putins possible attendance at a summit in Johannesburg. Mr. Putin faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, and as a member of the court, South Africa is obligated to arrest him if he enters the country.

John Yoon contributed reporting from Seoul, and Christoph Koettl from New York.

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