Category Archives: Russia

March 14 (Reuters) - Ukraine and Russia began another round of talks after negotiators said some form of agreement might be in sight, even as fierce Russian bombardments continued, with a shelling of an apartment block in Kyiv killing at least one. read more

DIPLOMACY

* Speaking ahead of a new round of talks, Russian and Ukrainian officials suggested there could be positive results within days. Ukraine said it wanted to discuss a ceasefire, troop withdrawal and security guarantees, and a negotiator described the talks as "hard" soon after they started. read more read more

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* Kremlin denied U.S. officials' reports that Russia asked China for military equipment after invading Ukraine. Beijing called the reports "disinformation".

* U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met China's top diplomat, Yang Jiechi, in Rome. Sullivan earlier said Beijing would "absolutely" face consequences if it helped Moscow evade sanctions. read more

CIVILIAN TOLL

* At least one person when an apartment block in Kyiv was hit by a Russian shell, local authorities said. read more

* Russia said 20 civilians were killed and 28 wounded by an Ukrainian missile in the eastern city of Donetsk controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Ukraine denied the report and Reuters was unable to independently verify it.

* More than 2,500 residents of the besieged port of Mariupol have been killed during the invasion and aid kept failing to reach the city because of Russian shelling, according to Ukrainian officials.

FIGHTING

* Kremlin said its campaign was going according to plan after one of Putin's allies made the strongest public acknowledgement yet that it was slower than hoped. read more

* A weekend strike at an army base in western Ukraine brought the fighting close to neighbouring NATO member Poland, though a British minister said it was "very unlikely" Russian missiles would land on NATO territory. read more

* Ukraine reported more air strikes on an airport in the west, heavy shelling on Chernihiv northeast of Kyiv and attacks on the southern town of Mykolayiv, where officials said nine people were killed. Ukraine's forces counter-attacked in Mykolayiv and the eastern Kharkiv region, an Interior Ministry official said.

REFUGEES

* About 2.8 million people have fled Ukraine, more than 1.7 million of them to Poland, according to the latest tally from the UN refugee agency. read more

ECONOMY AND MARKETS

* Stock markets firmed and oil prices eased on hopes for progress in Russian-Ukraine peace talks.

* The war in Ukraine must be stopped to prevent a global food crisis, Russia's coal and fertiliser billionaire Andrei Melnichenko said. read more * Russia's finance ministry approved foreign currency debt repayments, but warned they would be made in roubles if sanctions prevent banks from honouring debts in the issue currency. read more

COMING UP

* Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will virtually address the U.S. Congress at 9 a.m (1300 GMT) on Wednesday read more

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Compiled by Lincoln Feast and Tomasz Janowski; Editing by Nick Macfie

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Ukraine and Russia: What you need to know right now - Reuters

Allies of the Ukrainian president, Voldymyr Zelenskiy, say Vladimir Putin will only accept a compromise on Ukraines future neutrality if he is facing a credible threat to his economic power base by a rapid and permanent exclusion of Russias oil and gas exports from its lucrative European markets. The Russian government receives 40% of its budget revenues from energy exports.

But Ukraine is meeting stubborn resistance from Germany, which insists its economy would be plunged into recession if it suddenly lost access to Russian gas and oil.

In an interview reflecting the moral pressure Germany is under to do more, the countrys Green economics minister, Robert Habeck, admitted Europe in the past had fed Ukraine false promises, but said Germany could not afford the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs that a full energy embargo would require. He said Germany at best could be freed of Russian coal by the autumn, of its oil by the end of the year, but could set no date for ending German reliance on gas.

The impasse is leaving senior allies of Zelenskiy feeling frustrated, and appealing to the UK and the US to use the G7 to try to persuade the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, to sign up to a western timetable to end dependence on Russian energy.

Scholz and Emmanuel Macron, the French president, spoke with Putin again at the weekend. Zelenskiys chief negotiator, Mykhailo Podolyak, has said the talks between Ukraine and Russia are now virtually continuous, and have got past the stage of trading ultimatums. But the French sound less optimistic. Jean-Yves Le Drian, the French foreign minister, said: We are in front of a wall. The worst is ahead of us. This war will be long.

The frustration with the German position is such that Zelenskiy is willing to turn to one of Scholzs predecessors, Gerhard Schrder, to act as a mediator with Putin. The former chancellor has accepted the role, possibly to salvage something from the ruins of his reputation, and reportedly had talks with Putin last week.

Some of Zelenskiys team are also uneasy at the intermediary role of the Israeli prime minister, Naftali Bennett, questioning the depth of Israels support.

Zelenskiy has repeatedly stressed he is willing to meet Putin to discuss new security guarantees for Ukraine in return for his countrys future neutrality, either as an alternative to membership of Nato, or as an interim measure prior to joining the defence pact.

Speaking last week after his largely inconclusive talks with Sergei Lavrov in Turkey, Ukraines foreign minister, Dymtro Kubela, said the real issue for Ukraine is security guarantees and hard security guarantees, similar to the ones that members of Nato have. We need these guarantees primarily from Russia since it is the country that committed an act of aggression against us, but also from other countries including permanent members of the UN security council. The idea is that we have a treaty, an agreement where countries would oblige themselves not to commit aggression or put economic, or any other, pressure on us.

He confirmed the president had cooled down on Ukraines Nato application because, despite our best efforts, Nato is not ready to integrate us. The reaction to the aggression by Nato has been to delegate to member states to deal with us on a bilateral basis. But he added that until Ukraine knew the strength and reliability of the guarantees it was not yet ready to say the guarantees could be a substitute for Nato membership. We are not yet in a position to abandon Nato membership, he said.

The idea is for a legally binding treaty signed by numerous countries that guarantees the security of Ukraine in a way that the Budapest Memorandum signed in 1994 failed to do. The memorandum was supposed to guarantee Ukraines independence in return for the country abandoning its nuclear stockpile. Britain, in the form of John Major, was one of the co-signatories. The memorandum in effect became a dead letter. Zelenskiy insists the talks are serious and no longer merely an exchange of ultimatums.

The US, reflecting what it has been briefed to them by Israeli, French and Turkish intermediaries, all whom have spoken to Putin, say they have not heard any willingness by the Russian leader to compromise.

Its hard to offer an overture when the Kremlins position continues to be that well continue to pummel Ukraine until it bows to maximalist demands, a senior US official said last week. Putins public position is still to demand the demilitarisation and de-nazification of Ukraine, in effect regime change, as well as Ukrainian recognition of Crimea and of the Donbas. He thinks he is winning, the White House judges.

That leads the US and UK to argue the economic endurance test between the west and Russia must continue, and be intensified, until what Putins spokesperson Dmitry Peskov oddly describes as the hostile bacchanalia becomes so intense that Putin finds his inner circle desert him, or even assassinate him.

But Zelenskiys allies feel Scholz, a fortnight after Germanys great turning point on defence spending, has reverted to cautious type. A delegation has been in Europe this week arguing the EU, now on its fourth sanction package, has still not taken the decisive step a total embargo on Russian energy.

Andriy Kobolyev, the former boss of Ukraines energy firm Naftogaz, and now spearheading an international push for comprehensive western energy sanctions on behalf of Zelenskiy, finds the German caution frustrating.

He said: Until European leaders understand Putin sees them as a weak and easy victims in his geopolitical strategy, he will continue doing what he is doing. That is why the only way to prove Putin wrong is to put on a full-scale energy embargo. Europe has to play a different game and say we know we can cope without Russia. It has to say we are large economies, and with a different energy mix we can cope because for us it is a matter of principle. It has to say we are putting an end to this right now and you Russians will lose our market forever. That poses an existential threat for Russia.

Kobolyev has negotiated with Putin and his energy barons, and insists he knows their mindset. He believes the Russian president will face their wrath, and that of the FSB security service, if they feel Putin totally miscalculated not only Ukrainian resistance, but the wests willingness to make the sacrifices to wean themselves off Russian energy, and so blow a massive long-term hole in the Russian budget.

It would also upend all the assumptions of the Russian energy elite around Putin, such as Igor Sechin, the boss of Rosneft. Sechin, like Putin, is highly conservative on issues such as climate change. He remains convinced absolute oil consumption will increase by 10% by 2040 and by 20% in Asia. Kobolyev says it would be a complete shock to Sechin if his most profitable market just disappeared overnight. Their sacred cash cow would have been killed.

So far only the US has said it will end oil imports, but since the US imported an average of only 209,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and 500,000 bpd of other petroleum products from Russia in 2021, it is hardly a great sacrifice. The UK has said it will join the embargo by the end of the year.

But Scholz has set his face against the move. He said last week: At the moment, Europes supply of energy for heat generation, mobility, power supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way. It is therefore of essential importance for the provision of public services and the daily lives of our citizens, he added.

Annalena Baerbock, the Green foreign minister, has said much the same. If we end up in a situation where nurses and teachers are not coming to work, where we have no electricity for several days. Putin will have won part of the battle, because he will have plunged other countries into chaos. Scholz was one of a group of leaders who insisted on the removal in an EU council statement of any reference to the proposed target date of 2027 for the EU to end its dependence on Russian gas.

His concern is understandable. Oil accounts for 32% of German energy input, and one-third of that comes from Russia.

Yet oil is central to Putins war machine. Thane Gustafson, the chronicler of Russias energy sector, points out in his latest book, Klimat, that in 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, income from oil worth $188bn accounted for 44% of Russian exports in value, and gas only 12%. Hydrocarbons generate 56% of Russias export income and 39% of the federal budget.

Kobolyev is convinced that if the EU banned Russian oil, other sources could be found. There is a Russian proverb: a sacred place is never empty for long, he explains.

In a game of geopolitical chess with Russia, Biden is already working to find alternative oil supplies. For now he is trying to fill the shortfall through drawing on the US reserves, oil from Venezuela, the world largest oil producer, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

White House officials were in Caracas for the first such talks in 20 years. Venezuelas Nicols Maduro government has signalled its willingness to cooperate with the White House by releasing two political prisoners in a goodwill gesture. Venezuelas oil output could rise by at least 400,000 bpd, the countrys petroleum chamber said on Friday. But Biden has to tread carefully since the idea of reconciliation with Maduro is leading to a reaction in Congress.

Difficult talks about Saudi Arabia boosting output are continuing, according to Kobolyev. But Saudis weekend execution of 81 criminals and terrorists hardly suggests the kingdom is desperately seeking the wests approval. The executions hardly makes a mooted visit to Riyadh by Boris Johnson, the UK prime minister, more likely.

In the case of Iran, Russia has stepped in at the last minute to try to block Irans nuclear deal, fearing that an agreement, and the lifting of oil sanctions on Iran, would result in Tehran being able to unleash as much as 2m barrels of oil a day on to the global market.

To turn to the autocrats of Venezuela, Iran and to Saudi Arabia, or the indeed the UAE, to save the west from Putin has its ironies, but some say needs must. If Paris was worth a mass, oil, it seems, is seen as worth some diplomatic humble pie.

The more complex issue is gas. As a compromise between those that favour a ban, such as Poland and the Baltic states, the EU has produced a plan by which the EU cuts its consumption of Russian gas by two-thirds before the end of 2022. The EU would then become independent from all Russian fossil fuels by 2027 or well before 2030. By the end of this year, we can replace 100bn cubic metres [bcm] of gas imports from Russia. That is two-thirds of what we import from them, the EU commission said in a statement.

The EU argued it can receive about 10bcm more gas from alternative pipeline suppliers such as Norway and Azerbaijan. The main bulk of this replacement would, however, come from imported liquid natural gas, which officials estimate would need to reach 50bcm of additional imports by the end of 2022, possibly via a joint, strategic EU contract, although legal details remain to be resolved. Federico Santi, a gas specialist at the consultancy Eurasia Group, said: That is a huge figure, equivalent to around 10% of global LNG consumption in 2021.

Even so, Kobolyev is unimpressed by the lack of ambition and the lack of specific measures.

He insists the EU should at least cut off sales of Russian LNG, which hits the Yamal project, with ties to the Kremlins siloviki mafia. He has also proposed that the revenues from Gazproms pipelines go into an Iran-style escrow account that will be released only once Russia calls off the invasion. Sums might be deducted to pay for the reconstruction of Ukraine. He claims Russia could not physically turn off the gas taps immediately, taking Europe through to next winter.

Kobolyev is no longer a lonely voice, but is finding influential support in Germany in a way that is starting to discomfort the traffic light-coalition government. Norbert Rottgen the CDU former chair of the Bundestag foreign affairs committee, is calling for a full ban, and says he is not sure what happened to Germanys turning point. He says polls show voters are ahead of their leaders in being prepared to make economic sacrifices to stop funding Putins war machine.

On 8 March, the Leopoldina National Academy of Science, and separately a group of nine international economists, mapped out how Germany could absorb an embargo, with the worst scenario a 3% fall in GDP less than 4% impact of Covid or probably something like a cost of 1,200 per German citizen.

This figure is contested, including by Habeck, who says the impact is more likely to be 5%. Various economists, lobbyists and gas intensive industries, such as chemicals, are staking out their ground in a heated debate that blends morality, politics and economic modelling.

Scholz has moved under pressure in this war once, over arms sales, Nord Stream 2 and defence spending, and there is no guarantee he will not again.

But if frozen out of European markets, would Putin simply turn to China? Kobolyev says no. The option of shifting gas sales to Chinese markets is not possible, he says. In the case of China it might take 10 to 15 years to build the infrastructure. The existing pipeline to China is small and is not connected to the areas currently supplying Europe.

Although exporting LNG and oil will be easier, China will know they are his last market, meaning he will lose 80% of his revenues and that is a devastating blow.

This is about more than cents and dollars. Putin is paranoid and he would hate to become dependent on China because he is afraid China will eat them alive. Russians perceive China as their smaller brother. Russians brought communism to China, but this will be a humiliation.

So when Putin goes back to his crony friends and this is the close KGB circle and he tells them Look guys, we have been thrown out of Europe completely, but I am trying to negotiate with China, they are not going to appreciate that. To lose your biggest most lucrative market, to lose 80% of your revenues and become fully dependent on China, that does not look like a very smart or strategic move. That does not look like a victory.

The Russians and Putin, he explains, have always believed Europe can never survive without Russian oil. He thinks if he wins in Ukraine, the Kremlin will be forgiven because there is no alternative and the west is weak. That is how he thinks, its how Gazprom thinks and its how Rosneft thinks. That is how they see the world. That is why Putin personally controls the energy trade. It is his sacred cash cow.

Read the rest here:

Can the west slaughter Putin's sacred cash cow? - The Guardian

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), and in particular, the emirate of Dubai, has a reputation for being a playground for the rich, and one that does not ask too many questions about how wealth has been obtained. That looks likely to continue, despite increasing Western pressure to squeeze Russia financially, turning the UAE into an even more attractive proposition for rich Russians seeking a safe haven for their wealth, and undermining the effort to force Russia to pull back from its invasion of Ukraine.

Abu Dhabi has signalled that it is trying to pursue a balancing act between the United States and its European partners on one side, and Russia on the other.

The UAE, which was already home to 40,000 Russian nationals before the outbreak of war, abstained from a US-drafted United Nations Security Council resolution condemning Russias actions in Ukraine, an indication that the UAE is prioritising good ties with Vladimir Putins government above catering to Western interests in Ukraine. It has also reportedly assured Russia that it will not enforce sanctions against it unless required to do so by the UN, a scenario that is unlikely considering Russias veto on the Security Council.

As financial warfare against Russia intensifies, Putins administration has articulated its stance that the sanctions against it are tantamount to declaring war. Moscow is taking note of which countries are backing the Wests financial fight against Russia, and which countries have not.

Ultimately, the UAE and some other Arab states do not want to burn bridges with Moscow in response to the war in Ukraine. These countries see their national interests best served by maintaining close partnerships with Russia long after the war ends.

If Washington becomes increasingly convinced that the UAE is an enabler of Moscows foreign policy agenda, helping Russia to bypass sanctions, the Biden administration will consider what actions it can take.

To pressure the UAE into sanctioning those in Putins circle, the US could warn banks and other financial institutions in the Gulf country that they might face sanctions or penalties if they continue doing business with them. Yet with the White House seeking Emirati cooperation in terms of oil production and other areas, it is not clear that the Biden administration would do so at this delicate time.

The Emirati government has gotten away with quite a few things, such as serious human rights abuses, atrocities in Yemen, and dubious financial activities, which have apparently not phased successive US administrations, Stephen Zunes, a professor of politics and international studies at the University of San Francisco, told Al Jazeera.

However, UAE relations with the [US amid Bidens presidency] are not as cozy as they were during the Trump years, said Zunes. Countering Russian aggression has become the top foreign policy issue for the US government, so it could indeed lead to some unprecedented tensions.

Not lost in the equation are the deep economic ties between the UAE and the US, which go beyond oil.

In addition to the close relationship between the US and Emirati armed forces, the UAE has played an important role in helping the United States trade balance, providing lucrative contracts with American arms manufacturers and other investors, added Zunes.

As a result, if Biden was inclined to put pressure on the UAE, he could be faced with strong resistance from both the Pentagon and powerful corporate interests [in the US].

The UAE may already be paying a price for not aligning with the West against Moscow vis--vis Ukraine.

The Financial Action Task Force (FATF)s decision earlier in March to add the UAE to a global watch list for money laundering and terrorism financing has forced foreign banks to contend with heavier compliance burdens, which threatens to undermine the UAEs reputation as a regional financial centre and investment haven. To some extent, this might also weaken the countrys ability to compete with Saudi Arabia for foreign investment and regional trade.

There is good reason to believe that the designation was at least partly connected to Abu Dhabis neutrality in the Russia-Ukraine war. Following the March 4 meeting when the FATF added the UAE to the list, the Paris-based intergovernmental organisation warned jurisdictions of the need to remain vigilant in the face of money laundering associated with Russias invasion of Ukraine.

In response to the FATFs designation, Emirati state media stressed the UAEs commitment to combatting money laundering and terrorist financing.

Ultimately, it is safe to bet that the UAE will remain a country that Russian oligarchs can count on to keep their bank accounts unfrozen, and their assets in their hands.

Pressure from the US and other Western governments will not necessarily be enough to fundamentally change how the UAE deals with sanctions-hit Russians and the money that they are parking in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Put simply, the UAE will likely feel that it can carry on with its current policies, notwithstanding pressure that might come from Western powers should the war continue.

It is important to remember that, in an increasingly multipolar world, the UAE has weakened its reliance on the West, underscored by growing economic ties between Asian countries and the UAE.

The UAE is is Chinas largest Arab trade partner and accounts for 28 percent of Chinas total non-oil trade with the region. Two years ago, China surpassed the European Union as the GCCs top trading partner with the UAE serving as a focal point for the re-export of Chinese goods to the wider Middle East and Africa. Chinas trade with Dubai alone rose 30.7 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2021.

In the greater scheme of things, the UAE is not a country that is following a liberal, Western rules-based system, Andreas Krieg, an assistant professor at the Defence Studies Department of Kings College London, told Al Jazeera. They are operating outside it. They are more aligned towards the east. Their business future, also the future of financial networks is not in the West, but in the east.

The UAEs soft power throughout the east and the global south has in no small part relied on money streamsincluding illicit ones, or at least ones in the grey zone going into the Gulf country. There is ample documentation of entities and individuals from countries such as Iran, North Korea, Syria, and Venezuela using the UAE as a hub for sanctions evasion. This has enabled the UAE to gain influence in these non-Western states and build networks with them.

There is an alternative system being built as we speak, and that alternative financial system is one where [the FATFs] greylisting doesnt matter much, said Krieg. I think thats where the UAE is pivoting towards their pivot to the east is also pivoting away from the rules-based system.

More here:

Analysis: Can the UAE be a safe haven for Russian oligarchs? - Al Jazeera English

A serviceman waves from a military truck painted with the letter "Z" in Mykolaivka in the Donetsk region, a territory controlled by pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine, on Feb. 27. AP hide caption

A serviceman waves from a military truck painted with the letter "Z" in Mykolaivka in the Donetsk region, a territory controlled by pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine, on Feb. 27.

Messages featuring the letter "Z" have spread widely across social media since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Billboards have recently popped up in Russian cities featuring the letter. Stickers have appeared on cars and commercial vehicles. Russia's state-owned RT is selling T-shirts on its website in apparent support of the ongoing conflict.

But the origins of the symbol remain a mystery.

Prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the letter "Z" was seen painted on tanks as well as other military vehicles massing near the border. With both countries using similar tanks and trucks, it was originally thought this was meant to distinguish different units to prevent friendly fire and assist with mobilization.

Some speculate that the "Z" could stand for "zapad," which means west in Russian. Some have snidely suggested that the symbol stands for other words such as "zhopa," meaning ass in a reference to stiff Ukrainian resistance. The letter does not appear in the Cyrillic alphabet used by both Russia and Ukraine.

The Instagram account of the Russian Ministry of Defense has featured both "Z" and "'V" symbols with messages of "to victory" and "we finish wars." Another message states "we are responsible for the world/peace." The black-and-orange ribbons that make up the "Z" are St. George's ribbons, which are symbols of remembrance of Russians who died during World War II similar to the U.K.'s usage of the poppy for the fallen during World War I. Russia has repeatedly framed its invasion of Ukraine as defending its people from neo-Nazis although Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is Jewish.

It's not uncommon for military vehicles to feature markings to help both soldiers and their commanders organize during the chaos of combat one of the most famous markings being that of the red cross or red crescent to discern medical vehicles.

A protester paints the "Z" sign on Friday on a street in Belgrade, in reference to Russian tanks marked with the letter, during a rally organized by Serbian right-wing organizations in support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Andrej Isakovic/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

A protester paints the "Z" sign on Friday on a street in Belgrade, in reference to Russian tanks marked with the letter, during a rally organized by Serbian right-wing organizations in support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Regardless of its original military meaning, "Z" has become a symbol for support of Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine both at home and abroad.

Russian gymnast Ivan Kuliak is facing disciplinary action by the International Gymnastics Federation (FIG) after taping the symbol to his uniform in place of the banned Russian flag at a gymnastics World Cup event in Qatar. Kuliak was standing next to Ukrainian Illia Kovtun. The FIG has since banned both Russian and Belarusian athletes from competing in its events.

A widely spread image shows patients and staff of a children's hospice forming the symbol in a snow-covered courtyard in Kazan, the capital and largest city of Tatarstan, a semi-autonomous republic in Russia.

A video with more than 1 million views has spread online showing people waving the Russian flag behind a group wearing hoodies bearing the symbol.

"The task of our troops now is to tighten the noose around the neck of fascism. To finally end the eight-year war of terror in Donbas," a man in the video says. "Get to work, brothers! For Russia. For the president. For Russia. For Putin."

It's still unclear whether the recent swell of support is a coordinated attempt by the Russian government to coalesce the country behind its war-fighting efforts or an organic expression of public backing.

Russia is currently facing some of the harshest sanctions levied against a country in modern history, with President Vladimir Putin equating the financial penalties to a declaration of war.

The symbol has also reportedly been painted on the doors of prominent Russians such as film critic Anton Dolin as well as Pussy Riot member Rita Flores in an apparent attempt at intimidation.

Whether "Z" will continue to represent the conflict is still unknown. But for now, the symbol has become a visual representation of Russia's war in Ukraine.

Read more here:

The letter Z is becoming a symbol of Russia's war in Ukraine. But what does it mean? - NPR

Sadly, this encouraged people all up and down the regime to start stealing other peoples businesses and property. It became a kind of free-for-all. If it was good enough for Putin and his cronies, its good enough for me as the governor of Podunk province. The regime became more and more corrupt, less and less sophisticated, less and less trustworthy, less and less popular. It hollowed out. Thats what happens with dictatorships.

But such people and such a regime, it seems to me, would care above all about wealth, about the high life, about power. Why would they care about Ukraine?

Its not clear that they do. Were talking, at most, about six people, and certainly one person as the decision-maker. This is the thing about authoritarian regimes: theyre terrible at everything. They cant feed their people. They cant provide security for their people. They cant educate their people. But they only have to be good at one thing to survive. If they can deny political alternatives, if they can force all opposition into exile or prison, they can survive, no matter how incompetent or corrupt or terrible they are.

And yet, as corrupt as China is, theyve lifted tens of millions of people out of extreme poverty. Education levels are rising. The Chinese leaders credit themselves with enormous achievements.

Who did that? Did the Chinese regime do that? Or Chinese society? Lets be careful not to allow the Chinese Communists to expropriate, as it were, the hard labor, the entrepreneurialism, the dynamism of millions and millions of people in that society. You know, in the Russian case, Navalny was arrested

This is Alexey Navalny, Putins most vivid political rival, who was poisoned by the F.S.B. and is now in prison.

Yes. He was imprisoned in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine. In retrospect, it could well be that this was a preparation for the invasion, the way that Ahmad Shah Massoud, for example, was blown up in Northern Afghanistan [by Al Qaeda] right before the Twin Towers came down.

You have the denial of alternatives, the suppression of any opposition, arrest, exile, and then you can prosper as an lite, not with economic growth but just with theft. And, in Russia, wealth comes right up out of the ground! The problem for authoritarian regimes is not economic growth. The problem is how to pay the patronage for their lites, how to keep the lites loyal, especially the security services and the upper levels of the officer corps. If money just gushes out of the ground in the form of hydrocarbons or diamonds or other minerals, the oppressors can emancipate themselves from the oppressed. The oppressors can say, we dont need you. We dont need your taxes. We dont need you to vote. We dont rely on you for anything, because we have oil and gas, palladium and titanium. They can have zero economic growth and still live very high on the hog.

Theres never a social contract in an authoritarian regime, whereby the people say, O.K., well take economic growth and a higher standard of living, and well give up our freedom to you. There is no contract. The regime doesnt provide the economic growth, and it doesnt say, Oh, you know, were in violation of our promise. We promised economic growth in exchange for freedom, so were going to resign now because we didnt fulfill the contract.

What accounts for the popularity of an authoritarian regime like Putins?

They have stories to tell. And, as you know, stories are always more powerful than secret police. Yes, they have secret police and regular police, too, and, yes, theyre serious people and theyre terrible in what theyre doing to those who are protesting the war, putting them in solitary confinement. This is a serious regime, not to be taken lightly. But they have stories. Stories about Russian greatness, about the revival of Russian greatness, about enemies at home and enemies abroad who are trying to hold Russia down. And they might be Jews or George Soros or the I.M.F. and NATO. They might be all sorts of enemies that you just pull right off the shelf, like a book.

We think of censorship as suppression of information, but censorship is also the active promotion of certain kinds of stories that will resonate with the people. The aspiration to be a great power, the aspiration to carry out a special mission in the world, the fear and suspicion that outsiders are trying to get them or bring them down: those are stories that work in Russia. Theyre not for everybody. You know many Russians who dont buy into that and know better. But the Putin version is powerful, and they promote it every chance they get.

The West has decided, for obvious reasons, not to go to war with Russia, not to have a no-fly zone. Economic sanctions have proved more comprehensive and more powerful than maybe people had anticipated some weeks ago. But it seems that the people who these are aimed at most directly will be able to absorb them.

Sanctions are a weapon that you use when you dont want to fight a hot war because youre facing a nuclear power. Its one thing to bomb countries in the Middle East that dont have nuclear weapons; its another thing to contemplate bombing Russia or China in the nuclear age. Its understandable that economic sanctions, including really powerful ones, are the tools that we reach for.

Read the rest here:

A Scholar of Stalin Discusses Putin, Russia, Ukraine, and the West - The New Yorker

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New satellite images taken by the WorldView-2 satellite operated by Maxar Technologies has captured views of artillery firing near Kyiv, Ukraine as Russian military forces continue their invasion on that country. Space.com contributor Elizabeth Howell has the full story here.

The new photos were taken on Friday, March 11, and show new views of the fighting and destruction caused by the ongoing war.

Other satellite photos taken on Thursday, March 10, show the impacts of the war across other parts of Ukraine. Destroyed residential buildings and supermarkets were among the civilian targets destroyed in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Two images in particular show views of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which was taken over by Russian military forces early in the conflict. You can see those images below.

Here's what else that happened in recent days among the space industry as the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine spread.

New satellite images collected by Maxar Technologies on March 8 and 9 reveal severe damage to civilian structures in the besieged city of Mariupol, Ukraine, as well as the movements of armored vehicles elsewhere in the country.

The new images, released Wednesday by Maxar, were taken by the company's WorldView 2 and WorldView 3 Earth-observing satellites. Imaging of Ukraine from space has been difficult in recent days due to heavy cloud cover over the region, Maxar officials said.

The satellites observed Mariupol on March 9, revealing damage to grocery stores, residential buildings and other civilian structures, including a maternity ward.

On Tuesday, the WorldView 3 satellite observed the region around Ukraine's capital of Kyiv, showing the armored vehicles' movements.

You can see all of the images and read the full story here.

The United Kingdom on Wednesday banned all space-related exports to Russia as it tightened economic sanctions on the country following its invasion of Ukraine last month.

The U.K's Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss announced the space export sanctions alongside a more stringent sanctions related to aviation.

"We will continue to support Ukraine diplomatically, economically and defensively in the face of Putin's illegal invasion, and work to isolate Russia on the international stage," Truss said in the statement.

Read the full story here.

Former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly said today that he will give back a Russian spaceflight medal he received "For Merit in Space Exploration" in protest of the country's invasion of Ukraine.

"Mr. Medvedev, I am returning to you the Russian medal 'For Merit in Space Exploration,' which you presented to me," Kellytweeted on Wednesday(in Russian; translation provided by Google). "Please give it to a Russian mother whose son died in this unjust war. I will mail the medal to the Russian embassy in Washington. Good luck."

He aimed the statement at Dmitry Medvedev, who currently serves as deputy chairman of Russia's security council and was the nation's president from 2008 to 2012 and its prime minister from 2012 to 2020.

Kelly has been vocal on Twitter about his opposition to Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the country's ongoing attacks.

Kelly spent nearly a year in space in 2015 and 2016 alongside a Russian cosmonaut as part of a long-duration spaceflight experiment on the International Space Station.

Read the full story here from Spaceflight Editor Mike Wall.

American billionaire Jared Isaacman and three crewmates will take the Ukrainian flag to space and back later this year on his Polaris Dawn mission, a private spaceflight to be launched by SpaceX, as a show of solidarity with the people of Ukraine.

"We stand with Ukraine and its brave citizens and all those fighting for freedom across the world. The Polaris Dawn crew will take this flag to a place in space that still remains beyond the reach of tyranny," program officials wrote in aTwitter statement.

Read the full story here.

Isaacman, who financed last year's Inspiration4 private spaceflight with SpaceX, has bought three more missions on SpaceX rockets that will launch over the next few years. They include a SpaceX Crew Dragon flight that will include the first-ever private spacewalk by the end of 2022, a second flight on a Dragon capsule and the first crewed flight on SpaceX's new Starship spacecraft. All three missions are being flown under Isaacman's Polaris Program.

The European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), the science agency that oversees the Large Hadron Collider, will not enter into future science collaboration with Russian scientists after a Ukrainian scientists requests a halt to any Russian science cooperation due to that country's ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

CERN made the announcement today (March 8) after a meeting of the CERN council. You can read the full story by Senior Writer Tereza Pultarova. Ukraine is a associate member of CERN while Russia is not a formal member of the organization.

"The 23 Member States of CERN condemn, in the strongest terms, the military invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation, and deplore the resulting loss of life and humanitarian impact," CERN's council said in a statement. "Deeply touched by the widespread and tragic consequences of the aggression, the CERN Management and personnel, as well as the scientific community in CERN's Member States, are working to contribute to the humanitarian effort in Ukraine and to help the Ukrainian community at CERN."

Dmitry Rogozin, the head of Russia's Roscosmos space agency, traded Twitter barbs with former NASA astronaut Scott Kelly on Monday (March 7) amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Kelly, who spent nearly a year aboard the International Space Station in 2015 and 2016 and returned to Earth on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft, has been a vocal opponent of Russia's actions in Ukraine. On Sunday (March 6), Kelly tweeted in Russian that the country's recent covering up of international flags on a Soyuz rocket carrying commercial satellites was harming Russia's space program.

"Dimon, without those flags and the foreign exchange they bring in, your space program won't be worth a damn," Kelly wrote on Twitter. "Maybe you can find a job at McDonald's if McDonald's still exists in Russia."

Rogozin responded with an irate tweet that read: "Get off, you moron! Otherwise the death of the ISS will be on your conscience!" That tweet was soon deleted, and Kelly asked for an explanation. "Dimon, why did you delete this tweet? Don't want everyone to see what kind of child you are?" Kelly fired back in a tweet on Monday.

Read the full story here.

-- Tariq Malik

In the days since Russia invaded Ukraine, the effects of the unprovoked attack on Feb. 24 has already reached into space.

A planned launch of a Russian Soyuz rocket on March 4 to deliver 36 OneWeb internet satellites into orbit was canceled after Russia demanded the United Kingdom government, which is a financial backer of OneWeb, divest its holdings in the company and offer assurance the satellites would not be used for military purposes. OneWeb responded by pulling its personnel from the Russian-led Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan, where the mission was to launch from. The launch is on hold indefinitely.

Russia's federal space agency Roscosmos has also halted all Russian Soyuz launches from Europe's spaceport in French Guiana, which are conducted by the French launch provider Arianespace.

Germany's space agency DLR has switched off a black hole-hunting instrument on a Russian satellite and halted science cooperation with Russia. DLR officials placed the eROSITA instrument in safe mode. It is riding on the Russian satellite Spectrum-Roentgen-Gamma.

Meanwhile, NASA and Roscosmos have both stated that operation of the International Space Station is continuing as usual. The station is currently home to four American astronauts with NASA, two Russian cosmonauts and one European astronauts. A new Russian crew of three cosmonauts will launch to the station later this month, with American astronaut Mark Vande Hei of NASA and two cosmonauts to return to Earth soon after on a Russian Soyuz spacecraft. -- Tariq Malik and Chelsea Gohd

Here's a roundup of the space impacts of Russia's Ukraine invasion so far.

Read more:

Russia's Ukraine invasion and space impacts: Live updates - Space.com

USTRZYKI DOLNE, Poland Polish people know the pain of being invaded. This is what an opera singer told me as she handed out hot stew to Ukrainian refugees in a tent near the mountainous border between Ukraine and Poland on a chilly night in early March. She had planned to go skiing. She came here instead.

We were in the same situation in 1939, said Susan Grey, the opera singer, referring to the Polish people during World War II. We didnt have such an opportunity to be welcomed. We didnt have a place to go.

It feels as if the entire country of Poland has joined the effort to welcome Ukrainian refugees. I met software developers and chief executives who had taken time off work to drive supplies to the border. Hotels in Warsaw are offering free rooms, insurance companies free insurance. About 90 percent of Poles say that Poland should open its doors to Ukrainian refugees. Its a stunning contrast with 2015, when the pope himself couldnt persuade Poland to accept Syrians fleeing civil war. Just over three months ago, Polish police fired water cannons at Iraqi and Syrian asylum seekers to push them back into Belarus.

Polish people gave me many reasons that its different this time: Ukrainians are neighbors. They are Christians. They are fellow Slavs. But thats not the whole story. Before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Ukrainians faced discrimination and disrespect in Poland, where they tend to work in low-wage jobs, like driving cabs or picking apples. Now, the Ukrainian flag flies at the Warsaw City Hall, and the Ukrainian anthem rings out from St Marys Basilica in Krakow.

The way Polish people are acting, it feels like they are brothers and sisters, said Oleksandr Romashchenko, whom I met outside the U.S. embassy in Warsaw, where he held up a sign demanding a no-fly zone for Ukraine. He told me he moved to Poland from Kyiv a few years ago to follow his wife, who had gotten a job here. He hadnt always felt welcome. But true friends get to know each other during tough times, he said.

This crisis is fast becoming the largest humanitarian catastrophe in Europe since World War II, and Poland has opened its arms wide because these refugees arent fleeing a civil war in a faraway land. Theyre fleeing an invasion right next door.

For years, Poland has been among the loudest voices in Europe warning about the Russian threat while other countries, such as Germany, kept on doing business with Moscow. But now theres no point in saying I told you so. The only thing to do is project European unity and get ready for the tsunami of human suffering heading this way.

Warsaws mayor, Rafa Trzaskowski, told me in his office in Warsaw City Hall on Tuesday that the number of refugees was multiplying quickly. Three days earlier, 7,000 people had sought help from the citys welcome program, he said. Yesterday it was 20,000. Today it was 30,000. Vice President Kamala Harris visited the city this week, and pledged $53 million in new humanitarian assistance to Ukrainians impacted by war.

The first wave of refugees included many people with friends and relatives here. But many of the new arrivals dont know a soul. We have instances where the mother died and the father is fighting and he put his kids on a train and they arrive here, 12-year-olds, alone, Mr. Trzaskowski told me.

He hopes the good will in Poland will last. Already, Mr. Trzaskowski said he has gotten calls from Polish hosts who had offered their homes for a couple of days and are now asking, What can I do with these people?

Thanks to a recent court ruling, Mr. Trzaskowski has been able to commandeer an old Soviet-era building in Warsaw known as Spyville, which he intends to refurbish into housing for Ukrainian refugees. That will be great symbolism, but it will house only so many families. He has started looking at stadiums as temporary housing.

Europe is also bracing itself for a strong Russian disinformation campaign aimed at whipping up populist anger against the refugees in the communities where they settle. We will have to face this and the disruptive consequences, Katarzyna Peczynska, Polands former ambassador to Moscow, told me.

For now, daily life in Warsaw continues mostly as it was. People pick up their dry cleaning. They buy flowers. They check the news nervously. An art teacher in Warsaw, who spent her youth behind the Iron Curtain in Poland, told me that Polish people understood the nature of the Russian threat better than the people of Western Europe. As she watches the unthinkable happen in Ukraine, shes wondering if something unthinkable might happen here, too. Were not panicking, but were panicking, she said.

Nowhere is the connection between Ukraine and Poland more apparent than in Ustrzyki Dolne, a Polish village that was swallowed by the Soviet Union in 1939. Had it not been for a land swap in 1951, its residents would be Ukrainians, at war with Russia right now. Bartosz Romowicz, the 33-year-old mayor of Ustrzyki Dolne, has been eyeing the conflict next door since his election seven years ago. Back then, the conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, over Crimea and two pro-Russian breakaway enclaves in Eastern Ukraine, simmered some 900 miles away. It felt distant enough for Mr. Romowicz to dream of starting an electric car project with his counterpart in the Ukrainian city of Boryslav, on the other side of the border. In December, Mr. Romowicz drove there to discuss the project. Today, he gets texts from his Ukrainian partner about shortages of food and medicine. He has delivered humanitarian supplies across the border.

Its a commonly held view here that Ukraine must prevail, against all odds. If Ukraine loses, Poland will likely have a brutal Russian occupation and possibly a raging insurgency on its border. Mr. Putin could turn his attention to the next bite hes going to take out of Europe.

This is the contradiction at the bottom of every conversation I seem to have in Poland. Everybody tells me how important it is for Ukraine to win; what a catastrophe it will be if the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky is defeated. Hes fighting for the security of all of Europe, they say. Yet, at the same time, nobody seems to want to give Ukraine military assistance in this existential fight. To do so would put a target on Polands back, and drag NATO and the United States into a nuclear confrontation with Russia. This is the geopolitical reality that ties the hands of Poland, and renders the Polish people helpless bystanders to the killings next door.

Everybody is afraid of a third world war, Paulina Dudzic, a software programmer from Torun, told me.

She has no control over that. So she focuses on what she can do: making beds and soup for Ukrainian refugees at Jurkowa Wola, a cozy alpine lodge that is normally rented to cyclists and skiers. Her friend Beata Piatkowska, who owns the place, has relatives in Ukraine and canceled all tourist reservations to make room for families crossing the border.

Ever since, Paulina has played the role of social worker, babysitter and chef to a stream of brokenhearted people: A family with two cats and a turtle. Newlyweds who spent one night here together before the man went back to the front. A mother of two who drove 27 hours straight to get here, then sat shellshocked, pondering where to go next.

Paulina sprang into action. She called friends and secured a place for the mother to stay in Torun. Then she stole a few minutes of peace on a porch swing, resting up for the long night ahead.

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Opinion | Russia. Invasion. And Polands Very Long Memory. - The New York Times

Russian soldiers rest in Chechnya's capital, Grozny, in February 2000. Russia waged two wars against Chechnya from 1994 to 2000. In both wars, Russia heavily bombed Chechnya, flattening Grozny and causing tens of thousands of civilian deaths. Dmitry Belyakov/Associated Press hide caption

Russian soldiers rest in Chechnya's capital, Grozny, in February 2000. Russia waged two wars against Chechnya from 1994 to 2000. In both wars, Russia heavily bombed Chechnya, flattening Grozny and causing tens of thousands of civilian deaths.

Russia unleashes a heavy bombing campaign. Cities and towns are reduced to rubble. Thousands of civilians are killed.

Russia did this twice against fellow Russian citizens in Chechnya in the 1990s. That raises the question of whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the same playbook as he wages war in Ukraine today.

In Chechnya, a tiny Muslim republic in southern Russia with just 1.5 million people, resistance to Russian rule dates back at least two centuries. Rebels there began agitating for independence after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

After a couple of years of increasing tension, Russia unleashed a major invasion marked by relentless airstrikes and salvos of heavy artillery. Thousands of fighters and tens of thousands of Chechen civilians were killed. The Chechen capital, Grozny, was laid to waste.

Block after block, most every building was completely gutted. No other city had been so intensely bombed for decades. The devastation evoked those black-and-white photos of European cities pummeled in World War II.

Russian President Vladimir Putin flew into Grozny, Chechnya, in March 2000, traveling in a Su-27 fighter jet after Russia recaptured the territory. AP hide caption

Russian President Vladimir Putin flew into Grozny, Chechnya, in March 2000, traveling in a Su-27 fighter jet after Russia recaptured the territory.

Russia waged the campaign for two years, with its powerful military trying and repeatedly failing to crush a small band of rebels. Remarkably, Russia lost.

President Boris Yeltsin's government in 1996 signed a peace treaty with Chechnya, removed all Russian troops from the territory and granted broad autonomy to Chechnya, though not formal independence.

But three years later, as Yeltsin was about to leave office, he named an obscure spy turned politician to be his prime minister Vladimir Putin.

Putin assumed that office on Aug. 9, 1999, and by the end of that month, Russia was waging a renewed bombing campaign against Chechen rebels in an attempt to reverse the earlier humiliation.

The second Chechen war was also brutal, though it proved more effective. Russian forces took control of the breakaway republic after just a few months.

In March 2000, a triumphant Putin, who had by this time become president, flew to Grozny in a Russian fighter jet. He emerged from the aircraft in a full pilot suit, to commemorate the victory.

Putin installed a Kremlin-friendly leader, Akhmad Kadyrov, to strengthen his hold of the territory. Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004, but his son, Ramzan Kadyrov, now rules Chechnya.

In the current battle in Ukraine, Chechen forces have been sent in to fight with the Russian military.

A Chechen man walks across a square at the Presidential Palace in Grozny in January 1996. Russia heavily bombed Chechnya during its 1994-96 war there. Russia lost that war and signed a peace treaty, agreeing to leave Chechnya and giving the territory autonomy, though not formal independence. Russia reinvaded Chechnya in 1999. Mindaugas Kulbis/Associated Press hide caption

A Chechen man walks across a square at the Presidential Palace in Grozny in January 1996. Russia heavily bombed Chechnya during its 1994-96 war there. Russia lost that war and signed a peace treaty, agreeing to leave Chechnya and giving the territory autonomy, though not formal independence. Russia reinvaded Chechnya in 1999.

Thomas de Waal, a journalist who covered Chechnya in the 1990s, said he sees many similarities between then and now.

"There are some pretty disturbing parallels," said de Waal, who's now in London with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "The use of heavy artillery, the indiscriminate attacking of an urban center. They bring back some pretty terrible memories for those of us who covered the Chechnya war of the 1990s."

There are political parallels as well, he said.

"There was a project to restore Chechnya to Russian control, and nowadays in 2022, to restore Ukraine to the Russian sphere of influence," said de Waal. "And there was no Plan B. Once the people started resisting, which came as a surprise in Chechnya and is coming as a surprise in Ukraine, there was no political Plan B about what to do with the resistance."

He said Putin was expecting little or no pushback, as happened when Russian troops quickly and bloodlessly seized Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Instead, Putin got Chechnya, 1994.

After more than two weeks of heavy fighting in Ukraine, the Russian invasion is moving far more slowly than planned.

With their superior firepower, Russian forces are closing in on Ukraine's cities. But the Ukrainians are still resisting fiercely and still hold the capital, Kyiv, and other large urban centers.

Meanwhile, the civilian toll is mounting.

"When Russia says that it is 'not waging war against civilians,' I call out the names of these murdered children first," Ukrainian first lady Olena Zelenska said in an open letter this past week. "Perhaps the most terrifying and devastating of this invasion are the child casualties."

At least 549 civilians have been killed and nearly 1,000 injured, according to the U.N. Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. The actual number could be much higher, according the office.

"Schools, hospitals, and kindergartens have been hit with hugely devastating consequences," the U.N. body said in a statement. "Civilians are being killed and maimed in what appear to be indiscriminate attacks, with Russian forces using explosive weapons with wide area effects in or near populated areas."

U.S. intelligence officials painted a bleak picture this past week, predicting that urban fighting in the coming weeks could be even more intense.

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, testifying Thursday before the Senate Intelligence Committee, said, "Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by setbacks and instead may escalate, essentially doubling down."

Greg Myre is an NPR national security correspondent who reported from Chechnya in the 1990s. Follow him on Twitter: @gregmyre1.

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Russia's wars in Chechnya offer a grim warning of what could be in Ukraine - NPR

Last week, more than a dozen religious and political leaders sat on the dais of the Ukrainian Orthodox Cathedral of Saint Volodymyr on the Upper West Side, listening to solemn prayers and fiery speeches denouncing Russia and extolling Ukrainian resistance to the invasion that began two weeks earlier.

They gave speeches, one by one: the leaders of the Ukrainian, Greek and American Orthodox churches; a prominent rabbi; the leader of the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of New York; even Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York.

But one group was missing from this interfaith tableau: the Russian Orthodox Church, whose leader, Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia, is an ally of President Vladimir V. Putin. Organizers said Russian Orthodox leaders in New York had been invited but did not reply.

Here in America theyre not taking a position against the Moscow Patriarchate or against the political leadership of Russian Federation, Archbishop Daniel, a leader of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the U.S.A., said of Russian religious leaders in New York. Theyre trying to dance a political dance.

The world of Eastern Orthodox Christianity is complex, with more than a dozen self-governing branches whose leaders live primarily in cities across Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

Because New York is home to hundreds of thousands of Orthodox Christians, many of their churches treat it as an American base of operations. Those include the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, the Russian Orthodox Church and a subsidiary to it, the Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia. The three have outposts within walking distance of one another; the headquarters of the Russian branches are practically neighbors on Manhattans Upper East Side, while the an ornate Ukrainian cathedral sits across Central Park.

Patriarch Kirill is based in Moscow and is the highest authority for both the Russian Church and its New York-based American branch, which merged with the Moscow Patriarchate in 2007. He is also the highest religious authority for most Russian Orthodox parishes in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Orthodox Church became independent in 2019 by decree of the Patriarchate of Constantinople, the religious authority for all Eastern Orthodox branches. That decision outraged Russian political and religious leaders, and the future of the Ukrainian church may hinge on the outcome of the war.

Patriarch Kirill has declined to condemn the Russian invasion. Instead, he has attacked Western culture, in particular gay rights, in recent weeks, and has given a religious cast to Mr. Putins rhetoric about the oneness of Russia and Ukraine.

In a recent statement, Patriarch Kirill asked God to preserve the Russian land from evil forces and specified that he was referring to the land which now includes Russia and Ukraine and Belarus and other tribes and peoples.

That and other statements have drawn rebukes from the Ukrainian Orthodox Church in Ukraine and the United States. In an interview, Archbishop Daniel described Patriarch Kirill as a product of a Soviet system and a political tool of the Russian state.

The church is one of the departments of propaganda or control of the society, and it has been since the collapse of Soviet Union, the archbishop said. Obviously he will say what he needs to say.

Across the park, an atmosphere of fear has descended on the Ukrainian Cathedrals Russian counterpart, Saint Nicholas Russian Orthodox Cathedral, which is the Moscow Patriarchates administrative and religious headquarters in the United States.

The cathedral draws worshipers from across the former Soviet Union, including Ukraine. In recent days, some parishioners and priests seemed hesitant to discuss the war. Some cited the Russian governments increasing repression, saying they feared endangering loved ones in Russia and Ukraine.

March 15, 2022, 5:21 a.m. ET

One congregant, her face twisted in anguish as she stood on the cathedrals rain-slicked steps, apologized for turning down an interview with a reporter, explaining that her family is in Kharkiv (Ukraines second-largest city, which has been bombed relentlessly since the war began).

A priest, who spoke on condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisal, said the cathedral had gotten hate mail since the invasion began, and a protester had even come into the sanctuary and disrupted a religious class. She left after priests called the police, he said.

Whether anyone believes us or not, we are in pain from this, the priest said. We have relatives and friends in Ukraine. Parishioners have relatives and friends in Ukraine.

He said clergy members do not talk about politics in public in part because they do not want to stoke division in the parish. But he said anguish about the war seemed pervasive among the parishioners.

We are trying to explain to people that we are not politicians or about politics, the priest said. At least here, no one asked us our position on whether or not we should begin fighting against Ukraine or not. Everyone here is against it.

Father Sergey Trostyanskiy, a rector of St. Gregory the Theologian Orthodox Mission at Union Theological Seminary, said public discussion of politics was a violation of canon law in the Russian Church, even though Patriarch Kirills public utterances are politically freighted.

Father Trostyanskiy is also a priest with the Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia, which was founded in New York after the Russian Revolution and reunited with the Moscow Patriarchate 15 years ago. The church, just blocks away from St. Nicholas, also declined to send a representative to the interfaith event, where the Russian government was denounced, sometimes in vividly religious language.

In a speech at the interfaith prayer service, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraines ambassador to the United Nations, described his Russian counterpart, Vasily Nebenzya, as the herald of Satan and said Ukraine would prevail over Russia because we believe in God. His remarks drew a standing ovation.

Father Trostyanskiy said: The Russian church cannot participate in any event like this.

He said Patriarch Kirills speeches should be read not as endorsements of war, but as an effort to protect the unity of the church, which operates in Ukraine and Russia, by refusing to antagonize the Kremlin.

The bottom line is people expect him to take part in political endeavors, and it is impossible, Father Trostyanskiy said. All the statements from Kirill are constantly, Lets do things peacefully, lets pray and supplicate. That is quite clear. But he will never go against the Russian authorities.

American journalist killed. Brent Renaud, an award-winning American filmmaker and journalist who drew attention to human suffering, was fatally shot while reporting in a suburb of Kyiv. Mr. Renaud, 50, had contributed to The New York Times in previous years, most recently in 2015.

To do so, he added, might be dangerous for any priest or parishioner.

If people participate in more public endeavors where they make more open statements people at this time try not to do that because it might affect their future or the future of their relatives, Father Trostyanskiy said. After this war you never know what is going to happen.

Other Orthodox leaders said Patriarch Kirill was morally obligated to oppose the war publicly, not least for his many followers in Ukraine.

It hurts because we are part of the same church, the Orthodox Church, said Archbishop Daniel, at the Ukrainian cathedral. He is a spiritual leader also for Ukrainian Orthodox Christians who follow the Moscow Patriarchate, and he is not defending them.

But the fear of speaking out was palpable at St. Nicholas, the Russian Orthodox church. Speaking after services there recently, some parishioners said the war had overwhelmed them emotionally. Others said they were afraid of what might happen to their families if they stated their views publicly, even in New York.

One woman, who gave only her first name, Olga, out of fear for her relatives in Russia, including a son and her mother, said she was still haunted by the 15 years her grandfather had spent in a Soviet prison.

I think that kind of thing can happen again, definitely, she said. The situation is getting worse and worse and the newspapers are not telling people the truth.

Coming to St. Nicholas brought her comfort, she said, with prayer and the elaborate rituals of the Orthodox faith providing a respite from worry.

Even normal people cannot say what they think because they are afraid, she added, before walking into the cathedral to pray. Even me, I am thinking about my family.

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How Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Churches Are Handlng the War - The New York Times

On his visit to Poland last weekend, Secretary of State Antony Blinken walked fifteen feet into Ukraine, as snow began to fall, to meet briefly with its foreign minister. It was symbolic of the Biden Administrations deliberately calibrated policygoing up to the border, but not beyondto avoid any move that the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, could perceive as provocative. For everything were doing for Ukraine, the President also has a responsibility to not get us into a direct conflict, a direct war, with Russia, a nuclear power, and risk a war that expands even beyond Ukraine to Europe, Blinken told Meet the Press the next day, from Moldova. Yet, just two weeks into the war, the U.S. increasingly fears being drawn into a war with Russia. The undercurrent to frantic diplomacy and waves of U.S. military deploymentsthousands more troops dispatched to Europe, Patriot-missile batteries to Poland, and B-52 bombers flying over Central Europeis the palpable fear that the unthinkable is now thinkable.

On Tuesday, a new U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Russia will pursue its interests in competitive and sometimes confrontational and provocative ways, including pressing to dominate Ukraine and other countries in its near-abroad. In testimony on the Hill, William Burns, the C.I.A. director and a former Ambassador to Russia, was pressed about Vladimir Putins intent. Hes not going to stop at Ukraine, correct? asked Representative Jackie Speier, of California. Burns replied, Thats what makes it more important than ever to demonstrate that hes not going to succeed in Ukraine. The stakes, Burns acknowledged, are bigger. This is one of those pivotal points where we and all of our allies and partners need to act.

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Since Russias invasion, the besieged Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, has repeatedly warned the West about the danger that Putin would target other European nations. Everyone thinks that we are far away from America or Canada. No, we are in this zone of freedom, Zelensky said in a television interview, on Monday. And, when the limits of rights and freedoms are being violated and stepped on, then you have to protect us. Because we will come first. You will come second. Because, the more this beast will eat, he wants more, more, and more.

The U.S., however, pushed back this week on key military requests from Ukraine, for fear of Russias reaction. Putins reckless offensive has forced the U.S. to adopt awkward policy positions. On March 5th, Zelensky made an impassioned appeal to members of the House and Senate for more military aid, notably help in obtaining Soviet-era warplanes that Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly and that could balance Russias air superiority. On Wednesday, the Pentagon rejected an offer from Poland to turn over twenty-eight MIG-29 fighter jets to U.S. custodyflying them to a base in Germanyfor transfer to Ukraine. U.S. intelligence officials assessed that an American role in a transfer may be mistaken as escalatory and could result in significant Russian reaction that might increase the prospects of a military escalation with NATO, the Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, told reporters. U.S. involvement was deemed to be high risk. The majority of Ukraines warplanes are still intact, a senior Defense Department official added, while acknowledging that Russias surface-to-air missiles now have an umbrella that covers virtually all of Ukraine.

The Administration cited the same fears about Zelenskys request for help from NATO in establishing a no-fly zone over part of Ukraine to protect civilians. We also have to see to it that this war does not expand, Blinken said on Wednesday, at a joint press conference with his British counterpart. Our goal is to end the war, not to expand it, including potentially expand it to NATO territory. Otherwise, he warned, its going to turn even deadlier, involve more people, and I think potentially even make things harder to resolve in Ukraine itself.

On Thursday, Avril Haines, the director of National Intelligence, acknowledged that the U.S. is now in a uniquely challenging position. We are obviously providing enormous amounts of support to the Ukrainians, as we should and need to do, she told the Senate Intelligence Committee. But at the same time trying not to escalate the conflict into a full-on NATO or U.S. war with Russia. And thats a challenging space to manage.

Yet, at each of his four stops in NATO countries near Russia, Blinken heard dire predictions about the broader Russian threat beyond Ukraineand the need for the U.S. to do more. In Riga, on Monday, the Latvian Foreign Minister, Edgars Rinkvis, lamented to Blinken, We have no illusions about Putins Russia anymore. In Vilnius, the Lithuanian President, Gitanas Nauseda, turned to Blinken and said, Deterrence is no longer enough. We need more defense here, because otherwise it will be too late here, Mr. Secretary. Putin will not stop in Ukraine; he will not stop. And in Tallinn, on Tuesday, the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, said that NATO countries need to adapt to the new reality of a very aggressive Russia and permanently strengthen their defenses in the air, on land, and at sea. Pressed on what specifically countries on Russias borders needed, she replied, Everything.

Eastern European countriesnotably those once allied with, or part of, the former Soviet Unions empirehave long warned of the potential for Russian aggression. We, the Poles, are already tired of reminding everyone: We told ya so, Marek Magierowski, Polands Ambassador to the U.S., told me in an interview this week. He cited the forewarning by the late Polish President Lech Kaczynski during the Russian invasion of Georgia, in 2008. Today Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine, the day after tomorrowthe Baltic states and later, perhaps, time will come for my country, Poland, Kaczynski had said.

Magierowski added, We have never had any doubts whatsoever about Vladimir Putins neo-imperial ambitions. Putin has been waiting for this window of opportunity for years, he said. He convinced himself that the West is weak, divided, wallowing in a decadent mood. He thought the free world wouldnt care about Ukraines fate, as it didnt care about Czechoslovakias in 1938, when Europe tolerated Nazi Germanys annexation of the Sudetenland. Putin, he told me, is similarly emboldened because the West was tragically lenient and outrageously complacent after Russia murdered the defector Alexander Litvinenko, in 2006; invaded and annexed Crimea, in 2014; helped destroy the Syrian city of Aleppo, in 2016; reportedly used chemical weapons to poison the former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, in 2018; and poisoned the opposition leader Alexey Navalny, in 2020. Over the past three decades, Eastern Europeans have often encountered skepticism of their view of Putin as the U.S. and Western Europeans, notably the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, advocated dealing pragmatically with Russia.

During his European trip, Blinken repeatedly promised that NATO, this time, would prevent further Russian expansion. We will defend every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our collective power, he vowed, in Estonia. But U.S. experts worry, too, about an unintended incident triggering a wider war, like the spark that ignited the First World War, a conflict that dragged on for four years and killed tens of millions. Russias invasion of Ukraine could easily escalate into a larger conflict stretching from the Baltic to the Black Sea and further west into Europe, Thomas E. Graham, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned in a new report issued on Tuesday. It might not matter what the U.S. does, he wrote. Crippling sanctions could provoke Putin to lash out with greater violence, Graham cautioned. But, if NATO appeared restrained, Moscow could be tempted to press militarily even further into Europe to enlarge its sphere of influence. The rippling impact of broader Russian aggression would stress the geopolitical, economic, and institutional foundations of the international order created after the Second World War, Graham wrote.

Given the Russian leaders history, Angela Stent, a former National Intelligence officer and the author of Putins World: Russia Against the West and with the Rest, is worried about a miscalculation. The concern we have to have immediately is that the war in Ukraine doesnt inadvertently spread to Poland or Romania by some unforeseen clash, which would then have to involve NATO in a war with Russia, she told me. Stent also worries about Putins intentions short of war. You can use nonmilitary means to disrupt societies. And hes already been doing that for the past couple of decades. As the Russian leader grows increasingly cornered, she added, he will seek to exploit popular sentiment in countries like Serbia, where a pro-Russia march to support the war was held last week. The new U.S. intelligence assessment warns that Russia will employ an array of tools to undermine the interests of the U.S. and its NATO allies. We expect Moscow to insert itself into crises whenever it sees an opportunity, it concludes.

On Wednesday, the Biden Administration issued a forceful denial after Russias bizarre claim that the U.S. and Ukraine were developing chemical and biological weapons. The State Department spokesperson, Ned Price, said that Moscow has a long track record of accusing the U.S. of the very crimes that Russia is perpetrating. These tactics are an obvious ploy by Russia to try to justify further premeditated, unprovoked, and unjustified attacks, he said.

Russia, as the aggressor, still has the upper hand. But, for the U.S. and its allies, the one positive sign is that the performance of the Ukrainian military has exceeded expectations. Russian forces have fallen far short of Putins goal of a swift seizure of Kyiv and the ouster of Zelenskys government. The first two weeks have, instead, been grinding for Moscow. U.S. intelligence estimates that between two thousand and four thousand troops fighting for Russianot all of them Russianhave died in the first two weeks. The bravery of Ukrainians, so far, has prevented the worst-case scenario.

Read more from the original source:

The Growing Fear of a Wider War Between Russia and the West - The New Yorker