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Category Archives: Russia

‘Outraged by the atrocities’: U.S. aims new sanctions at Russia – POLITICO

Posted: April 6, 2022 at 9:20 pm

A senior Biden administration official said, however, there will still be a carve-out for energy transactions, part of a continued effort to shield Europe from skyrocketing oil and gas prices. The Treasury Department is also sanctioning Alfa Bank, the largest private lender in Russia, as well as several key state-owned companies, on top of a broader move to cut off funding to the country.

We have seen an overwhelming move by companies to take actions on their own to pull out of Russia, Brian Deese, a top White House economic official, told reporters Wednesday morning at an event hosted by the Christian Science Monitor. Today, we will prohibit any new inbound investment.

The latest sanctions on Russias biggest banks aim to dramatically escalate the financial shock the country has faced in recent weeks, a senior administration official told reporters on a call, adding that more than two-thirds of the Russian banking industry is now fully blocked from transacting with U.S. financial firms.

The investment ban will make sure that the mass exodus from Russia that were seeing from the private sector which is now over 600 multinational companies and growing that it will endure, said the official, who requested anonymity to discuss administration strategy. Without investment from our private sector, Putin will lose private sector know-how and skills that travel with investment, and the knock-on effects to the ongoing brain drain from Russia will be profound.

The measures were taken in concert with European allies. The U.K. on Wednesday imposed new asset freezes against Sberbank and Credit Bank of Moscow and announced a phase-out of Russian coal before the end of 2022, to go alongside a similar plan for Russian oil announced last month. It slapped new bans on exports, including oil-refining equipment as well as iron and steel products, and targeted sanctions at more oligarchs tied to the Russian fuel sector.

A new package of EU sanctions, which was to be put to member countries for a vote on Wednesday, would also phase out Russian coal deliveries from the blocs energy imports, ban Russian vessels and trucks from entering the EU and impose tougher sanctions on four key Russian banks. But the plan stops short of a full ban on Russian oil imports, amid resistance from countries led by Germany.

Our partners are outraged by the atrocities that are being committed in Russia, as we are, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday at a House Financial Services Committee hearing. And we are working very actively with them to impose new sanctions that will cause Russia significant pain.

Also targeted in Wednesdays actions: Putins adult children, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrovs wife and daughter and members of Russias Security Council, including former President and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

The Treasury confirmed Monday that it is now banning Russia from using its frozen central bank reserves to make payments to bondholders. That means the Kremlin will have to find new sources of funding and new payment routes other than U.S. banks to avoid defaulting on its debt, the official said.

The official said the sanctions are having an impact on Russia, citing soaring inflation and interest rates that are now above 20 percent. Russias economy is expected to shrink by as much as 15 percent this year, more than twice the contraction it experienced following the 1998 currency crisis, when the country defaulted on its debt.

But unlike then, when Russia was in the process of getting integrated into the global economy, its now in the process of being isolated as a pariah state, the official said.

At this rate, Russia will go back to Soviet-style living standards from the 1980s. Russians will find it difficult to travel abroad, their debit cards may not work and store shelves may be empty, the official said.

The Biden administration already took some steps in February to cut off Sberbank from the U.S. financial system after Russias initial invasion, but it stopped short of the type of full blocking sanctions that it placed on VTB, Russias second-largest bank.

Although the administration has banned oil and gas imports from Russia into the U.S., the carve-out allows U.S. financial institutions to continue sending payments for Russian energy to Sberbank on behalf of European countries, which rely heavily on those imports.

Importantly, these measures are designed to reinforce each other to generate intensifying impact over time, the administration said in a fact sheet.

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Russia hits an oil processing plant near the port city of Odesa – NPR

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Smoke and fire are seen after shelling in Odesa, Ukraine, Sunday, April 3, 2022. Max Pshybyshevsky/AP hide caption

Smoke and fire are seen after shelling in Odesa, Ukraine, Sunday, April 3, 2022.

The Russian military says it has struck an oil processing plant and fuel depots around the strategic Black Sea port of Odesa.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj.-Gen. Igor Konashenkov said Russian ships and aircraft fired missiles on Sunday to strike the facilities, which he said were used to provide fuel to Ukrainian troops near Mykolaiv.

Konashenkov also said Russian strikes destroyed ammunition depots in Kostiantynivka and Khresyshche.

In an audio message posted by Italian news agency ANSA, Italian photographer Carlo Orlandi said Odessa woke to military sirens at 5:45 a.m. Sunday, followed immediately by the sounds of bombs falling on the port city from two aircraft.

He described a column of dark smoke rising from the targets, and flames from the buildings.

"What we can see is a dense screen of dark smoke, and one explosion after the other, Orlandi said.

Elsewhere in Ukraine, the mayor of the capital of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has expressed shock at what he called "cruel war crimes" committed by Russian soldiers in the town of Bucha northwest of the capital.

Referring to reports of executed civilians, Klitschko told German daily Bild on Sunday that "what happened in Bucha and other suburbs of Kyiv can only be described as genocide."

An AP crew on Sunday saw the bodies of at least nine people who appear to have been executed. At least two of them had their hands tied behind their backs. They were all in civilian clothes and at least three were naked from the waist up. One appeared shot in the chest from close range.

Klitschko said Russian President Vladimir Putin was responsible for these "cruel war crimes," adding that civilians had been "shot with tied hands."

He called on the the whole world and especially Germany to immediately end gas imports from Russia.

He said that "especially for Germany, there can only be one consequence: Not a penny should go to Russia anymore, that's bloody money used to slaughter people. The gas and oil embargo must come immediately."

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Russia hits an oil processing plant near the port city of Odesa - NPR

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Russia’s war with Ukraine made it a global pariah but it still has friends in Mexico – CBC News

Posted: at 9:20 pm

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appears to have spent much of his Tuesday phone conversationwith his Mexican counterpartdiscussing Ukraine.

According to the official Canadian readout, "the Prime Minister invited the President to participate in the 'Stand Up for Ukraine'campaign pledging event on April 9, which he is co-convening with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to raise funds for Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced people."

There was no word on whether Mexican PresidentAndrs Manuel Lpez Obrador usually known as AMLO accepted the invitation. He has appeared to lack enthusiasm for supporting Ukraineand his MORENA party has had a number of pro-Putin eruptions since the Feb. 24 invasion.

On Tuesdayin what Mexican critics of Lpez Obrador's "Fourth Transformation" movement called a new low the newspaper that's often seen as the unofficial organ of the ruling party shocked many Mexicans with its front-page take on the murder of civiliansin Bucha and other newly liberated cities in the periphery of Kyiv.

"Russia demands the UN tackle staged massacre in Ukraine," reads the headline in La Jornada.

Subheadings repeated various Kremlin claims including one alleging the corpses in Bucha are living actors and that one of the victim'shands canbe seen moving in a video. (It can't.)

While much of the world was reacting with outrage to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a group of legislators from Mexico's governing MORENA party and the allied Labour Party decided it was a perfect time to set up a new "friendship group" with Russia.

RussianAmbassador to Mexico Viktor Koronelli celebrated the occasion on March 23 by meeting with about two dozen pro-government lawmakers while opposition members protested outside the chamber with signs saying "No to war."

"For us it's a sign of support, of friendship, of solidarity," said Koronelli, "in these complicated times for my country, facing not only a special military operation in Ukraine but also a tremendous media war."

"Russia didn't start this war. It is finishing it," he told his Mexican hosts.

Speaking on behalf of the governing party, Congressman Armando Contreras Castillo lavished praise on the Soviet Union, which he said had given Mexico "a new way of thinking about society and economy, a new way of understanding the world and life." Castillo said Mexico also wanted to draw closer to the modern Russia of Vladimir Putin.

"Our goal is today to strengthen Mexican-Russian relations," he said."We are ready to do everything to fortify the friendship between Mexico and Russia and establish new ties."

Mexico has a highly professional diplomatic corps and currently holds a seat at the UN Security Council. There, Mexico "has continuously condemned the acts of aggression perpetrated by the Russian Federation in Ukraine, while recognizing its sovereignty, political independence and territorial integrity," said Oscar Mora of the Mexican Embassy in Ottawa.

And at the General Assembly, Mexico co-sponsored with France a motion that blamed Russia for the humanitarian disaster in Ukraine.

"Mexico has also expressed its support for the call from the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to conduct an independent probe into the atrocities in Bucha, identifying those who are responsible to get justice," Mora told CBC News.

Mexico has sent flights to Romania with humanitarian assistance for Ukraine and is currently hosting about 400 Ukrainian refugees many of them are seeking status in the U.S.

"Rest assured that Mexico's condemnation will remain clear and loud, particularly as a non-permanent member of the Security Council, and we will continue to work with Canadaand other like-minded countries to restore peace in Ukraine as soon as possible," saidMora.

But Mexican journalist Jose Diaz Briseno, the Washington correspondent for Reforma, saidthat the Mexican government's position is best described as "ambivalent."

"There's one thing for the outside world, at the UN Security Council, and there's another position that the president himself and his allies present to the Mexican public," he said.

"Basically, the president is trying to cater to the most extreme elements within the MORENA coalition, which are very anti-U.S. and believe that any expression of support of Ukraine is 100 per centsupport of all U.S. actions in the world."

Following criticism of the new friendship group, Lpez Obrador said that "we are not going to participate either in favour or against" the war in Ukraine.

"Our posture is one of neutrality," he said.

"The president seems trapped," said Diaz Briseno, "between the official position that his diplomats are taking at the UNand the flirtations that some of the elements within his party have with Russia.

"There are elements of the MORENA Party and the Labour Party who have visited Russia, who've talked to Russian officials, and Russian propaganda in the Spanish language is very widespread in Mexico.

"Russian media are helping in many cases to spread some of the conspiracy theories about the U.S. being against AMLO."

U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar was quick to respond to the friendship group with a public statement that said "we must be united with Ukraine."

In Washington, the response came even faster as Air Force Gen.Glen VanHerck, head of the U.S. military's Northern Command, went before a U.S. Senate committee and dropped a bombshell about the Russian presence in Mexico.

"I would like to point out that most of the GRU members in the world are in Mexico at the moment," he said."Those are Russian intelligence personnel."

GRU, or Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye Upravlenie, is the Russian military's foreign intelligence service.

VanHerck said officers of GRU's main directorate use cover positions at the Russian Embassy in Mexico City to spy on the U.S., among other tasks. (The U.S. already has expelled several Russian diplomats it accused of using their diplomatic postings in Washington as cover for espionage.)

Asked about those allegations at one of his regular news conferences, Lpez Obrador said his government had no informationand advised others to stay out of Mexico's affairs.

"We must send them telegrams warning them that Mexico is not a colony of any foreign country," he said.

The president has himself avoided praising Vladimir Putin publicly or justifying the attack on Ukraine. He has said that Mexico will notallow arms to be sent to Ukraine or participate in any sanctions against the Putin government.

But on Mexico's left, traditional anti-Americanism and tolerance for autocratic regimes has blended with a conspiratorial mindset to drive support for Russia and suspicion of pro-Ukrainian narratives and some members of Lpez Obrador's party have been more openly supportive.

One example was its youth wing in Mexico's biggest state, which published a paean to the Russian dictator following the Feb. 24 invasion:

"We reaffirm our moral and political support for the difficult decision that forced the Russian government and President Vladimir Putin to engage in the legitimate defence of his people and, seeking to avoid a larger military conflict and preserve world peace, militarily intervene in Ukrainian territory to weaken the neo-Nazi, coup-lead forces," wrote the Morena Youth of Mexico State.

The statement blamed the U.S., EU and NATO for causing the conflict by tempting Ukraine to unite with the West "with the sole excuse of spreading democracy."

And just hours before Canada closed its airspace to Russian aircraft, Lpez Obrador's Transport Minister Miguel Torruco put out a string of tweets celebrating Russia's state airline.

"Warm greetings to our friends at the prestigious airline @aeroflot, hoping for prompt connectivity between nations and of course to Mexico City. I remind you that tourism is a synonym of peace, friendship and understanding between people," he wrote in one of them.

The pro-Putin musings of MORENA members have provoked anger in the U.S. and from Ukrainians.

Ukraine's ambassador to Mexico, Oksana Dramaretska,called Lpez Obrador out on Twitterand described the Friendship Group as "a disgrace,"prompting calls from some AMLO supporters for her expulsion.

And on Monday, a Democratic congressman from Texas called on the Biden administration to cancel the U.S. visas of all politicians who joined the group.

Rep. Vicente Gonzlez wrote in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas that the Friendship Group's members "took this opportunity to shun the free world and stand with Putin."

Mexican journalist Diaz Briseno says Monday's coverage in La Jornada was a sad development.

"On a personal note, it's very sad to see this on the front page of a major outlet in Mexico," he said. "This is not something you see in other countries, and it speaks to how some elements of the ruling coalition in Mexico have sympathy to Russian claims."

Russian Ambassador Viktor Koronelli, on the other hand, has welcomed Mexican support.

"In Russia, we say that it's in hard times that you learn who your friends are," he said.

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Russia's war with Ukraine made it a global pariah but it still has friends in Mexico - CBC News

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Russia’s economy is beginning to crack as economists forecast sharp contractions – CNBC

Posted: at 9:20 pm

MOSCOW, Russia: The Russian central bank has implemented a range of capital controls in a bid to support domestic assets and the ruble currency, as international sanctions squeeze the economy following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

KIRILL Kudryavtsev | AFP | Getty Images

The Russian economy is set to shrink sharply this year while inflation skyrockets, as punitive international sanctions in response to its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine begin to bite.

Russian manufacturing activity in March contracted at its sharpest rate since May 2020, in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, as material shortages and delivery delays weighed heavily on factories.

The S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for Russia, published on Friday, dropped from 48.6 in February to 44.1 in March, with anything below 50 representing contraction. Goldman Sachs economists noted on Friday that the fall was "broad-based, with sharp drops in the output, new orders, and (especially) the new exports orders components."

In a note Wednesday, economists at Capital Economics projected that Western sanctions are likely to push Russian gross domestic product into a 12% contraction in 2022, while inflation is expected to exceed 23% year-on-year.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has projected a 10% shrinkage in the Russian economy, which would still constitute the country's deepest recession for almost 30 years, with GDP then flatlining in 2023 and entering a prolonged period of negligible growth.

Goldman Sachs has also forecast a 10% contraction, while the Institute for International Finance think tank has projected a more damaging 15% plunge in Russian GDP in 2022 and a further 3% in 2023.

Fears of a Russian sovereign debt default have not materialized, however, with the Kremlin managing to service a recent closely-watched bond payment despite the shackles of sanctions by Western powers that have frozen huge portions of the central bank's $640 billion stockpile of foreign currency reserves.

Russian stocks have also edged higher since reopening on Mar. 24 after a month-long shutdown of Moscow exchanges, along with the ruble, though capital control measures taken by the Central Bank of Russia and the fading risk of debt default are partially responsible.

"A more sustained recovery will probably require a peace deal which still looks far away. Meanwhile, spillovers from the war will be felt acutely in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)," Capital Economics Chief Emerging Markets Economist William Jackson said in the report.

"Industry will be hit by supply disruptions and higher inflation will weigh on households' real incomes and dampen consumer spending. We expect the war to shave 1.0-1.5%-pts off growth in CEE this year."

The outlook for Russia may yet darken further following the emergence over the weekend of allegations of civilian massacres by Russian forces in Bucha and other Ukrainian towns. The alleged atrocities will push back expectations for peace talks and increase the threat of more punitive international sanctions.

Ukraine's top prosecutor said on Sunday that 410 bodies had been found in towns recaptured from retreating Russian forces around Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of genocide. Russia has denied allegations that its forces killed civilians in Bucha, 23 miles northwest of Kyiv.

The European Union plans to introduce fresh sanctions against Moscow in the wake of the new reported atrocities, with European Council President Charles Michel announcing on Twitter that "further EU sanctions & support are on their way."

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss will travel to Poland on Monday to meet with Ukrainian and Polish counterparts ahead of talks with G-7 and NATO allies later this week, and is expected to call for tougher sanctions against Russia.

Despite the sharp declines in Russia's March PMIs, Goldman Sachs noted on Friday that activity across some CEEMEA economies was surprisingly robust, with gains in Hungary and South Africa offset by declines in Poland and the Czech Republic.

"Hungary's PMI has been relatively volatile in recent months, so we would downplay the significance of its gain (not least because our analysis suggests that it is relatively exposed to the Russia-Ukraine conflict)," Goldman economists wrote.

"For South Africa, its direct trade with Russia and Ukraine is limited, while it is benefiting from higher commodity prices."

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As Russia Plots Its Next Move, an AI Listens to the Chatter – WIRED

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A radio transmission between several Russian soldiers in Ukraine in early March, captured from an unencrypted channel, reveals panicked and confused comrades retreating after coming under artillery fire.

Vostok, I am Sneg 02. On the highway we have to turn left, fuck, one of the soldiers says in Russian using code names meaning East and Snow 02.

Got it. No need to move further. Switch to defense. Over, another responds.

Later, a third soldier tries to make contact with another codenamed South 95: Yug 95, do you have contact with a senior? Warn him on the highway artillery fire. On the highway artillery fire. Dont go by column. Move carefully.

The third Russian soldier continues, becoming increasingly agitated: Get on the radio. Tell me your situation and the artillery location, approximately what weapon they are firing. Later, the third soldier speaks again: Name your square. Yug 95, answer my questions. Name the name of your square!

As the soldiers spoke, an AI was listening. Their words were automatically captured, transcribed, translated, and analyzed using several artificial intelligence algorithms developed by Primer, a US company that provides AI services for intelligence analysts. While it isnt clear whether Ukrainian troops also intercepted the communication, the use of AI systems to surveil Russias army at scale shows the growing importance of sophisticated open source intelligence in military conflicts.

A number of unsecured Russian transmissions have been posted online, translated, and analyzed on social media. Other sources of data, including smartphone video clips and social media posts, have similarly been scrutinized. But its the use of natural language processing technology to analyze Russian military communications that is especially novel. For the Ukrainian army, making sense of intercepted communications still typically involves human analysts working away in a room somewhere, translating messages and interpreting commands.

The tool developed by Primer also shows how valuable machine learning could become for parsing intelligence information. The past decade has seen significant advances in AIs capabilities around image recognition, speech transcription, translation, and language processing thanks to large neural network algorithms that learn from vast tranches of training data. Off-the-shelf code and APIs that use AI can now transcribe speech, identify faces, and perform other tasks, often with high accuracy. In the face of Russias numerical and artillery advantages, intercepting communications may well be making a difference for Ukrainian troops on the ground.

Primer already sells AI algorithms trained to transcribe and translate phone calls, as well as ones that can pull out key terms or phrases. Sean Gourley, Primers CEO, says the companys engineers modified these tools to carry out four new tasks: To gather audio captured from web feeds that broadcast communications captured using software that emulates radio receiver hardware; to remove noise, including background chatter and music; to transcribe and translate Russian speech; and to highlight key statements relevant to the battlefield situation. In some cases this involved retraining machine learning models to recognize colloquial terms for military vehicles or weapons.

The ability to train and retrain AI models on the fly will become a critical advantage in future wars, says Gourley. He says the company made the tool available to outside parties but refuses to say who. We wont say whos using it or for what theyre using it for, Gourley says. Several other American companies have made technologies, information, and expertise available to Ukraine as it fights against Russian invaders.

The fact that some Russian troops are using unsecured radio channels has surprised military analysts. It seems to point to an under-resourced and under-prepared operation, says Peter W. Singer, a senior fellow at the think tank New America who specializes in modern warfare. Russia used intercepts of open communications to target its foes in past conflicts like Chechnya, so they, of all forces, should have known the risks, Singer says. He adds that these signals could undoubtedly have helped the Ukrainians, although analysis was most likely done manually. It is indicative of comms equipment failures, some arrogance, and possibly, the level of desperation at the higher levels of the Russian military, adds Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general and author.

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As Russia Plots Its Next Move, an AI Listens to the Chatter - WIRED

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Russia warns U.S. to stay away for its "own good" as …

Posted: April 2, 2022 at 5:50 am

Moscow Russia warned the United States on Tuesday against sending warships to the Black Sea, urging American forces to stay away from the annexed Crimean peninsula "for their own good" as the situation along Ukraine's border caused increasing concern in the West. The U.S. Secretary of State, meeting with Ukrainian and NATO officials in Brussels, made it clear that the Biden administration, along with its allies in Europe, has Ukraine's back and considers Russia's ongoing military buildup in the region "very provocative."

The Turkish Foreign Ministry said on Friday that Washington had informed Ankara that two U.S. warships would pass through Turkish waters this week to be deployed in the Black Sea. The deployment would come amid a significant escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatists and Ukraine's forces, which have U.S. and European support.

Hostilities first flared in 2014 when Russia unilaterally annexed Crimea a peninsula that sticks out into the Black Sea and is home to a Russian navy base away from Ukraine, drawing condemnation from the Western world and a series of sanctions.

Russian Deputy Foreign Ministry Sergei Ryabkov was cited by Russian news agencies on Tuesday as calling the deployment of U.S. warships in the Black Sea a provocation designed to test Russia's nerves.

"There is absolutely nothing for American ships to be doing near our shores," Ryabkov said, warning there was a very high risk of unspecified incidents if U.S. military hardware were to be positioned in the Black Sea.

"We warn the United States that it will be better for them to stay far away from Crimea and our Black Sea coast," Ryabkov was quoted as saying. "It will be for their own good."

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby declined during a regular press briefing on Friday to confirm the Turkish government's statement that U.S. warships were being sent to the Black Sea. He noted that the U.S. "routinely" operates in the Black Sea, but said he wouldn't "speak to operations."

The current escalation has added strain to already tense U.S.-Russian relations. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Russia against aggressive actions in an interview aired over the weekend, saying any aggression in Ukraine would have consequences.

Ryabkov responded on Tuesday, accusing the Russian "adversary" of trying to undermine Russia's position on the international stage. He reiterated Russia's readiness to defend the interests of its citizens, and ethnic Russian speakers in eastern Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia was preparing itself in the event any new sanctions should be imposed on Moscow by the U.S. or its global partners.

Meanwhile, Russia has continued to move forces into both Crimea and the region along its border with Ukraine. The Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday that 15 warships and vessels of the Caspian Flotilla had been sent to the Black Sea as part of previously announced military exercises.

Ukraine said earlier this week that Russia had already massed more than 40,000 troops along its border, and at least 40,000 more in Crimea. Russia says the troop buildup is part of exercises, and has stressed that its forces will go where they want, when they want on Russian territory.

Top U.S. officials are in Europe this week, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Blinken. Austin announced during a stop in Germany on Tuesday that the U.S. was going to deploy an additional 500 troops to that country.

When asked if the move was meant as a message to Russia, he said it was "a sign to NATO" of the U.S. commitment to the transatlantic alliance, and of the firm commitment to Germany. Under President Donald Trump, Washington said it would withdraw thousands of the American forces who've been stationed in Germany for decades. That decision was suspended by the Biden administration, and now the force is set to grow.

Blinken, meanwhile, was in Brussels, meeting NATO partners, and he met separately with his Ukrainian counterpart to discuss the standoff with Russia.

"The United States stands firmly behind the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and I'm her to reaffirm that with the foreign minister today," Blinken said. "That's particularly important in a time when we're seeing, unfortunately, Russia take very provocative action when it comes to Ukraine. We're now seeing the largest concentration of Russian forces on Ukraine's border since 2014. That is a big concern not only to Ukraine, but to the United States and indeed to many of our allies and partners."

Sitting across from him, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the Russian buildup was "taking place not only along the border of Ukraine, but along the border of the democratic world. For thousands of kilometers to the north and to the east of our border with Russia, there is no democracy. So, this is the struggle that is taking place between democracies and authoritarianism, and in this struggle the support of the United States is absolutely crucial, and deeply appreciated."

Kuleba thanked NATO, also, and said that warnings already conveyed to Moscow through diplomatic channels, "will be supported by actions that make it very clear for Russia that the price of further aggression against Ukraine will be too heavy for it to bear."

He said the Ukrainian and U.S. delegations in Brussels, and more broadly the NATO allies at large, would continue discussing ways to ensure stability along his country's tense border with Russia.

While no NATO deployments have been confirmed, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed the alliance was planning to position 40,000 more troops and 15,000 pieces of military equipment close to Russian territory. He didn't elaborate, but said that "in response to the military activity of the alliance that threatens Russia, we have taken appropriate measures."

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier on Tuesday that he was "seriously concerned" by Russia's deployment of additional forces to the Ukrainian border.

"Russia is now trying to reestablish some kind of sphere of influence where they try to decide what neighbors can do," Stoltenberg said.

CBSNews.com's Tucker Reals contributed to this report.

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Russia headed for recession, closed economy despite rouble …

Posted: at 5:50 am

The United States Treasury sees Russia as struggling with steep inflation, diminished exports, and shortages

WASHINGTON, USA Punishing sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies on Moscow for invading Ukraine are pushing Russia into recession and starting to turn it back into a closed economy, a senior US Treasury official said on Friday, April 1.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told reporters that the Treasury sees Russia as struggling with steep inflation, diminished exports, and shortages despite a recovery of its rouble against the dollar. The official dismissed the rebound as driven by stringent capital controls and foreign exchange curbs, not market forces.

Inflation that has run as high as 6% over the past three weeks is a better indication of the sanctions performance inside Russia, revealing the roubles diminished purchasing power, the official said, adding that black market rouble exchange rates were well below the international rate.

After Western democracies imposed initial sanctions immobilizing around half of the Russian central banks $630 billion in foreign exchange assets and cutting several key Russian banks off from the SWIFT international transaction network, the roublelost half its value against the dollar.

It has since recouped its pre-invasion value, touching a five-week high in early Moscow trade on Friday before settling in the 83-84 range to the dollar.

But the Treasury official said that will not stop a steep contraction in Russias economic output that outside analysts now forecast at about 10% this year far worse than the 2.7% contraction it suffered during 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The economic consequences Russia is facing are severe: high inflation that will only get higher, and deep recession that will only get deeper, the official said.

The Treasury official said the cumulative effect of sanctions on banks, wealthy oligarchs tied to Russian President Vladimir Putin, key industrial sectors, and US export controls that deny Russia access to critical technologies, was to push Russia towards its Cold War existence as a closed economy.

But Russia, a producer of mainly commodities and raw materials, was ill-equipped to produce its own consumer and technology goods, the official said.

As a closed economy, Russia will only be able to consume what they produce, which will be a stark adjustment, the official added.

The process will not happen immediately. China, India, and other countries are still trading with Russia, and could replace some goods and parts that Russia would normally buy from Western firms.

However, its access to semiconductors, software, and other technologies is limited due to the US export restrictions that also will prevent China from selling Moscow any such chips since all its semiconductors are made with US technology or software.

The United States intended for the sanctions and export curbs to be debilitating to the Russian economy and cripple the Russian militarys ability to procure parts and equipment for the war effort, the official said

Washington was comfortable with enforcement of the sanctions and export controls thus far, but remained on the lookout for any violations.

The Treasury comments come as senior Biden administration officials traveled the globe to press world leaders to keep up sanctions pressure on Russia.

Washington planned to maintain humanitarian exemptions from the sanctions, given growing food insecurity problems and Russias role as a major wheat producer, the Treasury official said.

Other exemptions were intended to protect Western financial institutions that hold Russian assets, through a license to allow Russian debt payments to be made. Rappler.com

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Russia threatens to fine Wikipedia if it doesn’t remove some details about the war – NPR

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Russia's communications regulator is threatening to fine Google and Wikipedia for not removing what it describes as misinformation about the war in Ukraine. Chris Delmas/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Russia's communications regulator is threatening to fine Google and Wikipedia for not removing what it describes as misinformation about the war in Ukraine.

The Russian government is threatening to fine Wikipedia if it doesn't remove content that contradicts its narrative about the war in Ukraine.

Communications regulator Roskomnadzor announced on Thursday that it had asked the online encyclopedia to remove a page containing "unreliable socially significant materials, as well as other prohibited information" about its operations in Ukraine, according to an English translation. It accused the site of intentionally misinforming Russian users.

It said it could fine Wikipedia up to 4 million rubles, or nearly $47,000, for failing to remove those materials, which are illegal under Russian law.

Russia enacted legislation last month that criminalizes war reporting that doesn't echo the Kremlin's version of events including by calling it a war. The law has forced most of Russia's remaining independent news outlets to close and many journalists to leave the country for fear of facing up to 15 years in prison.

The Wikipedia page in question describes the history and context of the war, as well as specific military operations, casualties and humanitarian impact, human rights violations, legal proceedings, international reaction, economic consequences and media depictions.

It is not clear what specific details the regulator is looking to have removed, but Newsweek reports that it said on Monday that the Russian-language version of the page contained "inaccurate information about the special military operation to protect the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics for the de-militarization and de-Nazification of Ukraine," including the use of the words war, aggression and invasion.

Roskomnadzor's announcement follows two separate warnings to the Wikimedia Foundation, which owns and operates the encyclopedia.

A spokesperson for the foundation told NPR over email that it had received demands on March 1 and again on March 29 to remove information from the Russian-language version of the page about the invasion, before learning of the possible fine.

"The Wikimedia Foundation supports everyone's fundamental right to access free, open, and verifiable information; this escalation does not change our commitment," the spokesperson said.

The information on Wikipedia is sourced and shared by volunteers, with the foundation saying last month that Ukrainian volunteers were continuing to make additions and edits to the encyclopedia even as the war on their country unfolded.

The spokesperson reiterated on Friday that the information within the article continues to be verified, fact-checked and "improved by an ever growing number of Wikipedia volunteer editors," who determine the site's content and editorial standards.

"The Wikimedia Foundation protects and will continue to protect their ability to engage in research and contribute to Wikipedia," the spokesperson added.

In a statement released after the first takedown request last month, the Wikimedia Foundation said the demand "threatened censorship," and that denying people access to reliable information at a time of crisis could have "life-altering consequences." As of March 3, they said the English-language version of the page had been viewed more than 11 million times, and articles about the war had been created in more than 99 languages.

"Wikipedia is an important source of reliable, factual information in this crisis," the foundation wrote. "In recognition of this important role, we will not back down in the face of efforts to censor and intimidate members of our movement. We stand by our mission to deliver free knowledge to the world."

Wikipedia isn't the only information platform facing such a request from Roskomnadzor. Just days ago, the agency warned it would fine Google up to 8 million rubles (more than $93,000) for not following its orders to remove YouTube videos to which it objected.

This story originally appeared on the Morning Edition live blog.

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Russia threatens to fine Wikipedia if it doesn't remove some details about the war - NPR

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No hope for science in Russia: the academics trying to flee to the west – The Guardian

Posted: at 5:50 am

Prof John Duggan*, a climate scientist at a Russell Group university, had a Zoom call a few weeks ago with two Russian research partners shortly after their country invaded Ukraine. Duggan, who has worked with the academics for a while, suddenly found them unusually quiet and hesitant. He sensed that they were worried someone was looking over their shoulder.

In Russia, expressing opposition to the invasion is risky. But in subsequent calls Duggan says his friends have become bolder. Now they have given up hope for their work at home. They feel there is no future for science in Russia and are seeking positions abroad so they can flee.

Given that criticising the war can now lead to 15 years in prison in Russia, Duggan describes all communications with the scientists he is trying to help as deliberately ambiguous. But he says: They feel shame at what is being done in their name in Ukraine.

UK academics say this is becoming a familiar story. Russian scientists are turning to partners abroad to help them escape, but academics in the UK say even the most talented may struggle to find positions at short notice in British universities.

Last Sunday, the science minister, George Freeman, announced that the UK would follow other European countries in cutting the bulk of its research ties with Russia and switching off funding for any research with links to the state and its institutional collaborators.

The Russian government last week prohibited its scientists from taking part in international conferences or publishing research in international journals. Russian scientists say there is some appetite to ignore this, but there are reports that they are being blocked from publishing abroad anyway because some western academics are refusing to review research papers with Russian names on.

Duggans university, which the Guardian is not naming in order to avoid risk to the Russian academics, is making sanctuary for Ukrainian scholars and students its top priority, along with supporting staff and students already affected by the war. The university is also exploring whether it could offer positions to any Russians. Duggan says: The university is keen to be as supportive as possible. It will work within government guidelines, but recognises that many individual Russian academics and researchers have publicly criticised this invasion, often at great personal risk.

Science is considered a global endeavour with researchers partnering up with colleagues all over the world. Now many in Russia feel their work, shut off from international collaborations, will wither.

Dr Alexander Nozik, a physicist at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, told the Guardian: I believe and most of my colleagues believe that it just isnt possible to do isolated science. In physics the science journal system in Russia is mostly dead.

Nozik says most younger academics, including me are talking to contacts in Europe and formulating a backup plan. He adds: A lot of world-class scientists I know here cant work on their research because they are so depressed. They cant understand how we can live with all this.

Nozik says he intends to ignore the government statement banning publishing in international journals and many colleagues will follow suit. But he adds that researchers there are complaining a lot that academics [in the west] are blocking [journal] papers by refusing to review them if they have a Russian collaborator.

Prof Erica Brewer*, an environmental scientist at a northern research university in the UK, fears for the safety of research partners in Russia who are speaking out against the war. I have received requests from two very talented Russian colleagues asking if I know of opportunities to work abroad, she says. A colleague and I have put out feelers for them but it is currently not possible to find a place for them in the UK or Europe.

Dr James Ryan, a senior lecturer in modern Russian history at Cardiff University, says: Ive been in contact with academic friends in Russia. Some of them have already fled, and have no intention of returning any time soon. Thats the situation with many more.

However, he says, while some Russian academics may be able to use their reputations and academic contacts to secure short term research funding at European universities, finding longer-term jobs in the fiercely competitive academic job market will be much harder.

His own work is affected. Before the invasion Ryan relied on using libraries and archives in Russia for his research, but now he has no idea when he will be able to go back there.

Thousands of academics in Russia have signed open letters condemning the war. Last Friday, Russias ministry of justice declared the popular Russian science newspaper Troitsky Variant a foreign agent following its publication of a letter by scientists and science journalists opposing the invasion that was signed by about 8,000 people. The papers website is now blocked in Russia.

The majority of Russian universities are run by the state and last month the Russian rectors union, representing nearly 700 university chancellors and presidents, horrified British universities by issuing a statement echoing Vladimir Putins propaganda on the denazification of Ukraine and supporting our president who made the most difficult, hard-won but necessary decision in his life.

Ryan says that after this, it would be ethically problematic to seek a formal invitation from a Russian institution [to do research there].

He firmly supports the British governments decision to cut formal ties with Russian higher education institutions, but intends to maintain informal personal connections with colleagues in Russia. Last week, as an act of solidarity, he attended an online conference with mostly Russian historians who he says were certainly not supportive of the Russian war.

He adds: I would be horrified if academics are refusing to review papers written or co-written by Russians. This is racism.

Terry Callaghan, a professor of Arctic ecology at Sheffield University, says: We have very strong collaborations with Russian scientists and the invasion is a huge blow to our work.

Callaghan has helped establish 89 environmental research stations in the Arctic, 21 of which are in Russia, but says lots of our research is now frozen because of the invasion. Im absolutely sure many scientists will leave Russia. Putin has divided the nation, but scientists tend to speak English and they also read the internet so they understand what is really happening in Ukraine.

Callaghan paused his professorship at the National Research Tomsk State University in Siberia after the Russian rectors statement. He says he has halted all formal commitments with Russia but will not abandon personal connections with scientists that he has been fostering for 30 years.

However, he says this is more difficult to do in other places where he conducts research. In Finland we are not allowed even to email a Russian, and where I am now [in Arctic Norway] we cant have a Russian on a Zoom call.

Individual academics in Russia are still welcome to attend the British Association for Slavonic and East European Studies annual conference in Cambridge next weekend, albeit not representing their institutions.

Dr Ben Phillips, a historian of modern Russian at Exeter University and a member of the societys executive committee, says: We discussed whether we should exclude Russian participants but decided against it.

He says that instead the conference, which will feature a keynote address from a Ukrainian academic, will have a strict code of conduct and panel chairs will ask anyone who expresses support for the invasion of Ukraine to leave. But he adds: Anyone harassing Russian academics on account of their nationality will be treated the same way.

* Some names have been changed to avoid identifying academics who are trying to leave Russia.

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Russia hits back at U.S. intelligence claims that Putin was ‘misled’ over Ukraine war – CNBC

Posted: at 5:50 am

President-elect Vladimir Putin ahead of being sworn-in as President of Russia at St Andrew's Hall of the Moscow Kremlin.

Mikhail Metzel | TASS via Getty Images

Russia's Kremlin has rebuffed claims made by the U.S. that President Vladimir Putin felt he was "misled" by his military commanders over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

"To our regret and even concern neither the Department of State nor the Pentagon have authentic information about what is happening in the Kremlin," Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, told reporters at a briefing Thursday.

"They just do not understand what is happening in the Kremlin, they do not understand Russian President Vladimir Putin, they do not understand the mechanism of decision-making and they do not understand the style of our work," Peskov added, according to state news agency Tass.

"This is not just regrettable. It causes our concern, because such utter misunderstanding results in wrong decisions, in careless decisions that have very bad consequences."

The comments came after a declassified U.S. intelligence assessment released Wednesdaysuggested Putin had not been given the whole truth about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Statements by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House communications director Kate Bedingfield on Wednesday included comments that Putin "felt misled by the Russian military" and that this had resulted in "persistent tension between Putin and his military leadership."

Putin is thought to have expected Russian forces to be able to occupy Ukraine with some ease, with the aim of unseating the Ukrainian government and installing a pro-Russian regime as Moscow looks to expand its sphere of influence over former Soviet states.

However, Russian forces have faced staunch resistance from both Ukrainian forces and thousands of volunteer civilian fighters across the country.

To date, Russia has only captured one city, Kherson, while a much-feared assault on the capital of Kyiv has yet to begin, the second-largest city Kharkiv continues to resist and the western city of Lviv remains relatively unscathed.

Defense analysts have said that Russian troops were ill-prepared for the invasion, but this may not have been communicated to Putin by military commanders eager to please and reluctant to look incompetent.

Analysts told CNBC on Thursday that Putin's inner circle are either too loyal, or too scared, to question the strongman leader. As a result, despite the unpopular war, no one is likely to challenge his leadership or instigate a coup against Putin.

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