Category Archives: Russia

Islam is not just another soldier.

"If the Russians take me, I won't be exchanged", said the Chechen fighting with the Ukrainian army near the front line.

"They'll torture me then show me on television."

The 33-year-old dissident, a refugee who has been in Poland for nearly two decades, joined the Sheikh Mansur battalion in April. Founded in 2014 following Russia's annexation of Crimea, the unit is mostly made up of veterans of the Chechen wars.

It takes its name from the 18th-century Chechen military commander who fought against Russian expansion in the Caucasus a reminder that the Chechen campaign for independence is not new.

"Several hundred" men with shaven heads and long beards like Islam have volunteered to help Ukraine fend off Russia's invasion.

Islam did not reveal exactly how many troops there are in the battalion, or where they are stationed.

He wants to keep their identities secret for fear of reprisals against relatives in Chechnya.

Because just across the front line, there are Chechens loyal to the Kremlin serving with the "Kadyrovites" Chechen militias with a sinister reputation, deployed alongside Russian troops.

They are said to be 8,000 fighters a figure that has not been verified.

"We want to show that not all Chechens are like them many of us see the Russians as aggressors and occupiers," said Islam as bomb sirens blared.

For him, the war here has an air of deja vu.

"It's like a journey into the past, a continuation of what started in the Caucasus," he said calmly, getting out of a van with a broken windscreen and a hurried spray paint job.

Echoes of war

Chechnya's capital, Grozny, destroyed by Russian bombs more than two decades ago, suffered a fate similar to that of Mariupol.

The small Muslim-majority republic was ravaged by two brutal wars. The last, begun by Russian President Vladimir Putin in 1999, led to the installation of Chechnya's strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, who has been accused of ruthlessly suppressing opposition.

As a result, a Chechen diaspora of an estimated 250,000 people has formed in Europe, Turkey, and the UAE.

"I decided to join the battalion (for) the honor of the Chechens Moscow is trying to pass off as terrorists," said Islam, who has received threats for documenting alleged Russian war crimes online.

He takes orders from Deputy Commander Mansour, a battle-scarred 40-year-old soldier.

"Two of us have been killed and others injured. But it's important we're here," Mansur said. "We have things to teach the local soldiers about war."

The Chechen fighters are not officially part of the Ukrainian army. The equipment they use has been recovered from the Russians, and they are fed by locals, mostly Orthodox Christians, who seem to have taken kindly to them.

"We're not here to impose Islamic beliefs we're here to fight a common enemy and defend freedom," said Mansour.

Read the original:

The Chechens Fighting Russia on the Front Line - The Moscow Times

Reflecting a shockingly barbaric and old-fashioned wartime strategy, Russian forces have pummeled Ukrainian cities and towns with a barrage of rockets and other munitions, most of which can be considered relatively crude relics of the Cold War, and many of which have been banned widely under international treaties, according to a New York Times analysis.

The attacks have made repeated and widespread use of weapons that kill, maim and destroy indiscriminately a potential violation of international humanitarian law. These strikes have left civilians including children dead and injured, and they have left critical infrastructure, like schools and homes, a shambles.

The Times examined more than 1,000 pictures taken by its own photojournalists and wire-service photographers working on the ground in Ukraine, as well as visual evidence presented by Ukrainian government and military agencies. Times journalists identified and categorized more than 450 instances in which weapons or groups of weapons were found in Ukraine. All told, there were more than 2,000 identifiable munitions, a vast majority of which were unguided.

The magnitude of the evidence collected and cataloged by The Times shows that the use of these kinds of weapons by Russia has not been limited or anomalous. In fact, it has formed the backbone of the countrys strategy for war since the beginning of the invasion.

Of the weapons identified by The Times, more than 210 were types that have been widely banned under international treaties. All but a handful were cluster munitions, including their submunitions, which can pose a grave risk to civilians for decades after war has ended. More than 330 other weapons appeared to have been used on or near civilian structures.

Because of the difficulties in getting comprehensive information in wartime, these tallies are undercounts. Some of the weapons identified may have been fired by Ukrainian forces in an effort to defend themselves against the invasion, but evidence points to far greater use by Russian forces.

Customary international humanitarian laws and treaties including the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and their protocols demand that the driving principle in war be military necessity, which mandates all combatants direct their actions toward legitimate military targets. The law requires a balance between a military mission and humanity. Combatants must not carry out attacks that are disproportionate, where the expected civilian harm is clearly excessive, according to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, to the direct and concrete military advantage that would be anticipated. Combatants must consider distinction, that attacks are directed only toward lawful targets and people and are not applied indiscriminately. And they must not use weapons calculated to inflict unnecessary suffering.

The Russians have violated every single one of those principles almost daily, said Mike Newton, a Vanderbilt University law professor who frequently supports efforts to prosecute war crimes all over the world.

The law of war is far more demanding than the rule of simple expediency and convenience, Professor Newton said. Just because I have a weapon doesnt mean I can use it.

What follows is an analysis of the visual evidence The Times examined in its investigation.

A vast majority of the weapons identified by The Times were unguided munitions, which lack accuracy and, as a result, may be used in greater numbers to destroy a single target. Both of these factors increase the likelihood of shells and rockets falling in areas populated by civilians.

Russia has relied heavily in Ukraine on long-range attacks with unguided weapons, like howitzers and artillery rockets. By comparison, Western military forces have almost entirely converted their arsenals to use guided rockets, missiles and bombs, and they have even developed kits that can turn regular artillery shells into precision weapons. Russia may be limited by sanctions and export controls affecting its ability to restock modern weapons, and much of its precision-guided arsenal may now have been exhausted.

Illustration of a D-30 Howitzer

Illustration of a multibarrel rocket system

Source: U.S. Department of Defense

These Cold War-era, unguided Russian weapons have the capacity to shoot well beyond the range of the human eye many miles past the point where a soldier could see the eventual target. To use these weapons lawfully at long range, Russia would have to use drones or soldiers known as forward observers to watch where the weapons hit, and then radio back corrections. There was little evidence that they were doing so until recently.

I think what were seeing here with the Russians is kind of like what youd see back in World War II, where they just bomb the hell out of people, a senior American defense official said in an interview.

The most surprising thing is, I guess, their philosophy on trying to break the will or the spirit of the Ukrainian people by just leveling large sections or entire towns, said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about assessments of Russian behavior in Ukraine. He added: This is what war used to look like, and they just brought it back center stage. And people, I think, are horrified.

Artillery rockets like the 122-millimeter Grad were fielded long before precision-guided weapons were invented. They were designed for something called saturation fire in which a handful of mobile rocket launchers, each of which can fire as many as 40 rockets in about 20 seconds, can offer the same firepower as many dozens of larger towed howitzers. They can essentially flood an area with warheads exploding in rapid succession.

When fired in a barrage, the rockets make up for their comparative inaccuracy with sheer volume blanketing their targets with explosions.

The warheads on these weapons can be devastating. When they explode, they produce a blast wave that can grow in intensity as it bounces off buildings, shattering concrete on neighboring structures and damaging internal organs of anyone nearby. The munitions casing breaks into razor-sharp fragments that can penetrate bodies. Both the blast wave and the fragments can be lethal at various ranges. Here are three common types of weapons Russia has been using in Ukraine whose fragments can be dangerous to unprotected people at great distances.

9N210 submunitions

316 ft

9N210 submunitions

316 ft

Sources: Collective Awareness to Unexploded Ordnance (munitions explosive quantities); U.S. military publications (hazard ranges)

Munitions and remnants of weapons have been found throughout Ukraine, and about one-fifth of those identified were located outside of the areas of Russian troop presence, according to a Times analysis. Though some of the munitions were almost certainly used in airstrikes, many were most likely launched at maximum range, meaning that estimates of troop presence during the span of the war may have underrepresented the extent of the threat to civilians and civilian structures.

Rockets, missiles and other weapons identified in photos

Approximate extent of Russian troop presence

Sources: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (Russian troop presence) | Notes: Only munitions with known city or town locations are included. Extent of Russian troop presence shows combined assessments from March to June.

In the early weeks of the invasion, Russia shifted many of its attacks to highly populated areas with civilian infrastructure, hitting churches, kindergartens, hospitals and sports facilities, often with imprecise long-range unguided munitions that could be heaved blindly from afar, causing wreckage well beyond the boundaries of occupied territory.

The top prosecutor at the International Criminal Court in The Hague has opened a formal inquiry into accusations of atrocities in Ukraine. Under international humanitarian law, combatants and commanders are supposed to take all feasible precautionary measures to minimize harm to civilians and civilian objects, like apartments, houses and other buildings and structures that are not being used for military purposes.

Targeting civilian structures or indiscriminately bombing densely populated areas, depending on the circumstances of an attack, could violate the laws of war, or even possibly be a war crime. And the burden of proof to show that an area was a justified military target and that the attack was proportionate, experts have said, generally falls on the aggressor.

A photo of a warhead spiking the center of a playground, though it may be upsetting, does not necessarily prove that a war crime has been committed. Details of each instance, including the intent behind an attack and the surrounding circumstances, must be thoroughly investigated. (For example, if a school was being used as a military command center, it could potentially be considered a justified target under international law, though that would need to be weighed against other factors, like determining whether an attack would be proportionate.)

Still, experts said documenting evidence of potential violations could be an important first step in that investigative process and could help tell the story of civilians struggling on the ground. And a pattern of widespread attacks involving civilians and protected structures, they said, particularly with imprecise weapons, should not be ignored.

This is a window into the mindset of how Russia views Ukraine, said Pierre-Richard Prosper, who served as U.S. ambassador-at-large for war crimes issues under President George W. Bush and who has also been a war crimes prosecutor. And its a window into how Russia views the likelihood that it will be held accountable for its actions.

Its emblematic, he said, of how the Russian government has been operating with impunity on so many fronts.

Over and over, The Times found visual evidence that Russian forces fired on areas that were near easily recognizable civilian buildings. Hundreds of munitions were identified in or near houses and apartment buildings, and dozens were identified in or near schools. Weapons were also identified close to churches, cemeteries, farms, medical facilities and several playgrounds.

The Times found the distinctive remains of cluster munition warheads scattered across Ukraine they were photographed sometimes where they landed, and sometimes where they were gathered in piles. The munitions are a class of weapon comprising rockets, bombs, missiles, mortar and artillery shells that split open midair and dispense smaller submunitions over a wide area.

Although some of the Russian submunitions used in Ukraine have been mines designed to kill people or destroy tanks, they usually take the form of small anti-personnel weapons called bomblets that are cheaply made, mass-produced and contain less than a pound of high explosives each.

About 20 percent of these submunitions fail to detonate on impact and can explode if later handled. Many of the solid-fuel motors tallied by The Times that were left over from rocket attacks might have carried cluster munition warheads, but it was unclear meaning that the cluster weapon tally is likely an undercount.

A number of nongovernmental organizations have reported injuries and deaths in Ukraine resulting from cluster munitions. In February, Human Rights Watch said a Russian ballistic missile carrying submunitions struck near a hospital in Vuhledar, killing four civilians and injuring 10, including health care workers, as well as damaging the hospital, an ambulance and other vehicles.

The same month, according to the human rights organization, Russian forces fired cluster munitions into residential areas in Kharkiv, killing at least three civilians. Amnesty International reported that a cargo rocket dropped bomblets on a nursery and kindergarten in Okhtyrka, in an attack that was said to have killed three people, including a child, and to have wounded another child.

In April, Ukraines Office of the Prosecutor General, which has been investigating potential war crimes, said a man in the village of Mala Kostromka picked up an unexploded submunition, which then detonated, killing him. In May, the office said Russian forces had used cluster munitions in a village in the Dnipropetrovsk region, possibly killing one person. Neither Ukraine nor Russia (nor the United States) have joined the international treaty banning the use of cluster munitions.

Uragan 9M27 rockets have an average range of about 21 miles.

1 Once fired, an Uragan burns through its solid rocket fuel and follows an unguided ballistic course.

2As it nears the target, the warhead separates from the rocket motor, which falls to the ground.

3As the warhead spins, it releases its cargo of bomblets that fall over a wide area.

4About 20 percent of the bomblets will fail to detonate. They become hazardous duds that remain dangerous for many decades.

Uragan 9M27 rockets have an average range of about 21 miles.

2As the warhead spins, it releases its cargo of bomblets that fall over a wide area.

1 Once fired, an Uragan burns through its solid rocket fuel and follows an unguided ballistic course.

3About 20 percent of the bomblets will fail to detonate. They become hazardous duds that remain dangerous for many decades.

Uragan 9M27 rockets have an average range of about 21 miles.

1 Once fired, an Uragan burns through its solid rocket fuel and follows an unguided ballistic course.

3As the warhead spins, it releases its cargo of bomblets that fall over a wide area.

2As it nears the target, the warhead separates from the rocket motor, which falls to the ground.

4About 20 percent of the bomblets will fail to detonate. They become hazardous duds that remain dangerous for many decades.

Sources: Fenix Insight Ltd.; Collective Awareness to Unexploded Ordnance; Armament Research Services (ARES) and Characterisation of Explosive Weapons Project Note: Illustration is not to scale.

The military forces of both Russia and Ukraine are known to have used cluster munitions in Donbas during fighting in 2014 and to have used weapons in civilian spaces. But since the Feb. 24 invasion, with the exception of a single known use attributed to Ukrainian troops, evidence has pointed to nearly exclusive use by Russian forces.

The Times identified these weapons through photos of the skeletal remnants of empty rocket warheads as well as images of unexploded bomblets they left behind some of which were designed to demolish armored vehicles and others to kill people.

The Times defined civilian areas narrowly, as locations in or near identifiable nonmilitary or government buildings or places, like houses, apartment buildings, shops, warehouses, parks, playgrounds, schools, churches, cemeteries and memorials, hospitals, health facilities, agricultural structures and farms. Because some of the visual evidence in both city centers and small villages did not include clear examples of civilian buildings or landmarks, this tally is an undercount as well. The Times did not include infrastructure like roads or bridges.

In the photos below, The Times identified other weapons that are widely scorned by the international humanitarian community: a hand grenade used as a booby trap, an antipersonnel land mine, remnants of incendiary weapons and a group of flechettes.

Novoiakovlivka, Zaporizka

The hand grenade in the first photo, disguised in a crumpled coffee cup, was found by Ukrainians near their home in Zalissya Village, near Brovary. The weapon potentially violates the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, which restricts the use of booby traps in the form of seemingly harmless portable objects that can explode if disturbed or approached.

The POM-3 land mine in the second photo is also banned under international humanitarian laws; it can kill and maim civilians long after wars have ended. Ukrainian military officials reported that they found such land mines in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions. They are a new type of weapon, equipped with sensors that can detect when people walk nearby unlike older types of land mines, which typically explode when people step on them or disturb attached trip wires. Ukraine is one of 164 nations that have signed a 1997 treaty banning the use of antipersonnel land mines and have pledged to purge their stockpiles, while Russia has refused to join it (as has the United States).

The POM-3 generally is launched by a rocket and then parachutes back to the ground. There, it waits until it senses a person nearby and then launches a small explosive warhead that can detonate midair. The fragments can be lethal to someone as far as 50 feet away. In April, the HALO Trust, a British American nonprofit that removes explosive remnants of weapons after armed conflicts, told The Times that these create a threat that we dont have a response for.

The third photo shows small, hexagonal cylinders of thermite an incendiary compound used in some Russian rockets and bombs that have been seen bursting open mid-air, streaming burning sticks of thermite onto the ground below. International law specifically prohibits their use near civilian areas.

The fourth photo shows a handful of flechettes, essentially tiny steel arrows released from certain types of shells. Using them does not necessarily violate international humanitarian law, but the weapons could potentially run afoul of the laws of war if deemed to cause unnecessary suffering or if used in civilian areas because of their indiscriminate, lethal nature.

Even guided munitions, which are not generally banned on their face, can potentially run afoul of international humanitarian laws if they are used to harm civilians or structures without a justified military target. The Times found evidence of more than a dozen guided weapons in civilian locations.

Russias weapons strategy will reverberate far into Ukraines future. The Times found visual evidence of more than 120 rockets, bombs, shells and other munitions in Ukraine that failed to detonate or were abandoned. That count is surely just the tip of the iceberg, according to experts, who have said that proper cleanup of these weapons will take years.

Leftover munitions not only pose a danger to civilians if they unexpectedly explode, but also can wreak havoc on the environment, contaminating drinking water, soil and air, sometimes sickening or killing people. They can hinder rebuilding after fighting has ended, experts said, because people sometimes cannot return to their homes or cannot reach essential services.

Cherkaska Lozova, Kharkiv

In April, HALO, which stands for Hazardous Area Life-Support Organization, told The Times that future efforts to remove explosives in Ukraine would require roughly the same number of workers as its current operation in Afghanistan, which has suffered decades of conflict.

Unexploded ordnance poses a serious and ongoing threat, even decades after wars are fought. In Syria, land mines, explosive remnants and unexploded weapons were a leading cause of child casualties last year, making up about a third of recorded injuries and deaths and leaving many children permanently disabled.

In Laos, where the United States used cluster munitions extensively during the Vietnam War, nine million to 27 million unexploded submunitions remained after the conflict, causing more than 10,000 civilian casualties, according to the Congressional Research Service. More than a full century after World War I, unexploded shells still litter parts of Europe where battles were fought. Some zones are still uninhabited because they are considered unsafe.

In addition to launching weapons that have failed to explode in Ukraine, Russia has also attacked local arms depots, causing fires and explosions that typically can fling hundreds of damaged and unstable munitions into surrounding areas.

Leila Sadat, a professor of international law at Washington University in St. Louis and a special adviser to the International Criminal Court prosecutor since 2012, said there was a huge degree of weapon contamination that then Ukrainians have to address, assuming they can come back to these areas.

Ukraine, Prof. Sadat said, could become a wasteland.

See the article here:

What Hundreds of Photos of Weapons Reveal About Russia's Brutal War Strategy - The New York Times

She says:

"The best, better than anyone else, with all this music."

You have got Russian music, special Russian music?

"Yes, yes," she says, "every single day and night."

She is referring to the daily rhythm of small-arms fire and explosions which echo through Lysychansk and its twin city across the valley.

Over here is the city of Severodonetsk, which is now half-occupied by the Russians. You can see where the battle is raging and smoke filling the entire valley here. And you just got to wonder how long that they can hold on, the Ukrainians, there before finally the Russians come up to the river.

Today, Russian state TV released footage it claims is inside Severodonetsk, showing its soldiers recovering what appears to be a Western-supplied anti-tank weapon. These images will be difficult to stomach for the authorities in Kyiv, who are watching Russians slowly gaining ground and removing all trace of the Ukrainian state.

The Russian advance is forcing some families to leave neighboring Lysychansk, a few bags and a cherished companion. Ukraine's modern-day evacuees are dispatched with a prayer for safe delivery.

Read more:

Russia slowly advances in the Donbas region - PBS NewsHour

Sat, May 28 20224:55 PM EDT

This photograph shows a railway wagon and sleepers burning after a shelling near the Lyman station in Lyman, eastern Ukraine, on April 28, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Yasuyoshi Chiba | AFP | Getty Images

Russian forces stepped up their assault on the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk on Saturday after claiming to have captured the nearby rail hub of Lyman, as Kyiv intensified its calls for longer-range weaponry from the West to help it fight back in the Donbas region.

Slow, solid Russian gains in recent days point to a subtle momentum shift in the war, now in its fourth month. The invading forces appear close to seizing all of the Luhansk region of Donbas, one of the more modest war goals the Kremlin set after abandoning its assault on Kyiv in the face of Ukrainian resistance.

Russia's defense ministry said on Saturday its troops and allied separatist forces were now in full control of Lyman, the site of a railway junction west of the Siverskyi Donets River in the Donetsk region that neighbors Luhansk.

However, Ukraine's deputy defense minister, Hanna Malyar, said the battle for Lyman continued, the ZN.ua website reported.

Sievierodonetsk, some 60 km (40 miles) from Lyman on the eastern side of the river and the largest Donbas city still held by Ukraine, was under heavy assault from the Russians.

"Sievierodonetsk is under constant enemy fire," Ukrainian police posted on social media on Saturday.

Russian artillery was also shelling the Lysychansk-Bakhmut road, which Russia must take to close a pincer movement and encircle Ukrainian forces.

"There was significant destruction in Lysychansk," the police said.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20221:08 PM EDT

A senior pro-Russian official in the occupied Ukrainian region of Kherson told Reuters on Saturday that nearby fighting could affect the timing of its formal bid to join Russia and a decision was likely "towards next year."

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Russian-backed Kherson Military-Civilian Administration, also said in a video call that the process might involve a referendum, backtracking on previous comments that none would be needed.

Asked about the timetable for joining Russia, he replied: "It won't happen by autumn. We're preparing an administrative system and then towards next year we will see what the situation is like."

Stremousov told Russian state media on May 11 that Kherson, just north of Crimea and the only regional capital that Russia has captured in more than three months of fighting in Ukraine, would ask President Vladimir Putin to incorporate it into Russia by the end of 2022. He said at the time: "There will be no referendums."

In his interview with Reuters, however, he said there could be a vote.

"We'll announce later when some kind of vote or plebiscite is planned, but it won't be today and it won't be tomorrow because our first task is to restore order in the Kherson region," he said.

Ukrainian and Western intelligence agencies have since March predicted that Moscow would hold a referendum on incorporating Kherson into Russia, as it did after seizing Crimea in 2014.

Russia has said that the fate of the Kherson region is for local residents to decide. Ukraine has pledged to expel Russian forces from all the land they have seized.

A small-time local politician and anti-vaccine video blogger before the arrival of Russian troops, Stremousov, 45, has teamed up with pro-Russian former Kherson mayor Volodymyr Saldo, serving as his deputy in the region's Russian-appointed government.

Both Stremousov and Saldo are wanted for treason by Ukraine.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 202210:28 AM EDT

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the plenary session of the First Eurasian Economic Forum in Bishkek, via video link from Moscow, Russia May 26, 2022.

Mikhail Metzel | Sputnik | Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the leaders of France and Germany in a phone call on Saturday that Russia was willing to discuss ways to make it possible for Ukraine to resume shipments of grain from Black Sea ports, the Kremlin said.

Russia and Ukraine account for nearly a third of global wheat supplies, while Russia is also a key global fertilizer exporter and Ukraine is a major exporter of corn and sunflower oil.

"For its part, Russia is ready to help find options for the unhindered export of grain, including the export of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports," the Kremlin said.

It said he also informed French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Russia was ready to increase its export of fertilizers and agricultural products if sanctions against it were lifted - a demand he has raised in conversations with the Italian and Austrian leaders in recent days.

Ukraine and Western countries have accused Russia of weaponizing the food crisis created by its invasion of Ukraine, which has sent the prices of grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertilizer soaring.

Russia has blamed the situation on Western sanctions against it, and on the mining of Ukrainian ports.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20229:34 AM EDT

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron attend a news conference ahead of a Weimar Triangle meeting to discuss the ongoing Ukraine crisis, in Berlin, Germany, February 8, 2022.

Hannibal Hanschke | Reuters

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The group discussed stalled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with the Kremlin saying Kyiv was to blame for the current impasse. Putin "confirmed the openness of the Russian side to the resumption of dialogue," Russia said in a read-out following the 80-minute call.

Scholz and Macron called on Putin "to engage in serious direct negotiations with the President of Ukraine and to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict," according to a read-out from the German Federal Government.

Putin also said the West delivering weapons to Ukraine could risk "further destabilization of the situation and the aggravation of the humanitarian crisis."

Jessica Bursztynsky

Sat, May 28 20229:27 AM EDT

Russia successfully test-fired a hypersonic Zircon cruise missile over a distance of about 1,000 km (625 miles), the defense ministry said on Saturday.

The missile was fired from the Barents Sea and hit a target in the White Sea, it said. Video released by the ministry showed the missile being fired from a ship and blazing into the sky on a steep trajectory.

President Vladimir Putin has described the Zircon as part of a new generation of unrivaled arms systems. Hypersonic weapons can travel at nine times the speed of sound, and Russia has conducted previous test-launches of the Zircon from warships and submarines in the past year.

Russia's military has suffered heavy losses of men and equipment during its three-month invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a "special operation", but it has continued to stage high-profile weapons tests to remind the world of its prowess in missile technology.

Last month it test-launched a new nuclear-capable intercontinental missile, the Sarmat, capable of carrying 10 or more warheads and striking the United States.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20225:58 AM EDT

Russia's defence ministry said on Saturday that the eastern Ukrainian town of Lyman had fallen under the full control of Russian and Russian-backed forces in the region.

Pro-Russian separatists from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic had said on Friday that they had fully captured the town, a railway hub west of Sievierodonetsk.

Ukraine said on Friday that Russia had captured most of Lyman but that its forces were blocking an advance to Sloviansk, a city 20 kilometres (12 miles) southwest.

Ukrainian and Russian forces have been fighting for Lyman for several days.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20223:42 AM EDT

Russian forces have likely captured most of the Ukrainian town of Lyman in the north of the Donetsk Oblast, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry. It is seen as likely to be a preliminary operation for the next stage of Russia's Donbas offensive.

"Lyman is strategically important because it is the site of a major railway junction, and also gives access to important rail and road bridges over the Siverskyy Donets River," the U.K. ministry said via Twitter.

"In the coming days, Russian units in the area are likely to prioritise forcing a crossing of the river. For now, Russia's main effort likely remains 40 km to the east, around the Sieverodonetsk pocket but a bridgehead near Lyman would give Russia an advantage in the potential next phase of the Donbas offensive, when it will likely seek to advance on key Ukrainian-held cities deeper in Donetsk Oblast, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk."

Sam Meredith

Sat, May 28 20223:35 AM EDT

Russia has pressed its offensive to capture key points in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, with more bombing of residential areas.

Aris Messinis | Afp | Getty Images

Russian forces have begun direct assaults on built-up areas in Severodonetsk despite not yet having fully encircled the Ukrainian city, according to The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank.

In its latest daily assessment, the ISW said Russian forces were likely to struggle to take ground in Severodonetsk itself, citing a poor track record in operations in built-up areas in urban terrain throughout the war to date.

"Russian forces will likely continue to make incremental advances and may succeed in encircling Severodonetsk in the coming days, but Russian operations around Izyum remain stalled and Russian forces will likely be unable to increase the pace of their advances," the ISW said.

Sam Meredith

Sat, May 28 20223:24 AM EDT

Russian forces have began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk, a city in the Luhansk Oblast and one of Russia's immediate tactical priorities.

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Ukrainian forces may have to retreat from their last pocket in the Luhansk region to avoid being captured, a Ukrainian official said, as Russian troops press an advance in the east that has shifted the momentum of the three-month-old war.

A withdrawal could bring Russian President Vladimir Putin closer to his goal of capturing eastern Ukraine's Luhansk and Donetsk regions in full. His troops have gained ground in the two areas collectively known as the Donbas while blasting some towns to wastelands.

Luhansk's governor, Serhiy Gaidai, said Russian troops had entered Sievierodonetsk, the largest Donbas city still held by Ukraine, after trying to trap Ukrainian forces there for days, though adding that Russian forces would not be able to capture the Luhansk region "as analysts have predicted".

"We will have enough strength and resources to defend ourselves. However, it is possible that in order not to be surrounded we will have to retreat," Gaidai said on Telegram.

Gaidai said 90% of buildings in Sievierodonetsk were damaged with 14 high-rises destroyed in the latest shelling.

Reuters

Sat, May 28 20223:23 AM EDT

Tanks of pro-Russian troops drive along a street during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the town of Popasna in the Luhansk Region, Ukraine May 26, 2022.

Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters

Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai has said there are approximately 10,000 Russian troops in Ukraine's eastern region.

"These are the [units] that are permanently in Luhansk region that are trying to assault and are attempting to make gains in any direction they can," Gaidai said on Ukrainian television.

CNBC was not able to independently verify this report.

Sam Meredith

Fri, May 27 20226:29 PM EDT

The 106m-long and 18m-high super luxury motor yacht Amadea, one of the largest yacht in the world is seen after anchored at pier in Pasatarlasi for bunkering with 9 fuel trucks, on February 18, 2020 in Bodrum district of Mugla province in Turkey.

Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

The United States won the latest round of a legal battle to seize a $325-million Russian-owned superyacht in Fiji, with the case now appearing headed for the Pacific nation's top court.

The case has highlighted thethorny legal groundthe U.S. finds itself on as it tries to seize assets of Russian oligarchs around the world. Those intentions are welcomed by many governments and citizens who oppose the war in Ukraine, but some actions are raising questions about how far U.S. jurisdiction extends.

Fiji's Court of Appeal dismissed an appeal by Feizal Haniff, who represents the company that legally owns the superyacht Amadea. Haniff had argued the U.S. had no jurisdiction under Fiji's mutual assistance laws to seize the vessel, at least until a court sorted out who really owned the Amadea.

Haniff said he now plans to take the case to Fiji's Supreme Court and will apply for a court order to stop U.S. agents sailing the Amadea from Fiji before the appeal is heard.

As part of its ruling, the appeals court ordered that its judgment not take effect for seven days, presumably to give time for any appeals to be filed.

The U.S. argues that its investigation has found that behind various fronts, the Cayman Islands-flagged luxury yacht is really owned by the sanctioned Russian oligarch Suleiman Kerimov, an economist and former Russian politician.

Associated Press

Sat, May 28 20223:22 AM EDT

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Pro-Moscow Kherson official sees decision 'toward next year' on joining Russia; Kremlin forces advance in the east of Ukraine - CNBC

Valentin Yumashev, the son-in-law of former Russian President Boris Yeltsin, has left his position as a Kremlin adviser, according to a Monday report by Reuters.

The media outlet cited two people close to the situation as saying Yumashev, described as a key element to Russian President Vladimir Putin's rise to power, quit his role in April. He is the latest of several prominent Russian officials to resign since Putin launched his war on Ukraine that will hit the 100-day mark Friday.

Reuters noted Yumashev worked in an unpaid capacity and had only "limited influence on Putin's decision-making," but his name recognition, past influence and connection to Yeltsin make his resignation a high-profile loss to the Kremlin.

Lyudmila Telen, who works as first deputy executive director of the Boris Yeltsin Presidential Centerwhere Yumashev serves as a member of the board of trusteesreportedly said he left his position last month. She also indicated it was Yumashev's own decision to leave.

Another person said to be knowledgeable of the situation spoke with Reuters on the condition of anonymity. That source also said Yumashev stepped down from his role as a presidential adviser in April.

No explanation has been given for Yumashev's departure, but his daughter posted an anti-war message with a Ukrainian flag on Instagram on February 24the day Putin's forces began attacks in Ukraine.

Yumashev is married to Yeltsin's younger daughter, Tatyana, and was once an aide to his since-deceased father-in-law. The BBC reported that Yumashev, while serving as Yeltsin's chief of staff, gave Putin his first job in the Kremlin in 1997. He was said to have later recommended to Yelstin that Putin become his successor.

Since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, other top Russian officials have stepped down from their posts. One of the most powerful was Anatoly Chubais, a longtime government official who acted as Putin's envoy to international organizations concerned about sustainable development, according to the Associated Press. Like Yumashev, Chubais was once a top aide to Yeltsin.

On May 23, Boris Bondarev, Russia's diplomat to the United Nations, announced his resignation over the nation's invasion of Ukraine. In a letter sent to other diplomats, Bondarev wrote that he has "never been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year."

Arkady Dvorkovich, a former Russian deputy prime minister, quit his role as chairman of the Skolkovo Foundationa top state-sponsored science organizationafter the war began, the AP reported.

Additionally, Zhanna Agalakova and Lila Gildeyeva both gave up their jobs as anchors on Russian state-run TV channels over the invasion. And Elena Kovalskaya, who worked as the director of a state-run theater located in Moscow, also resigned out of protest, according to Business Insider.

Newsweek reached out to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov for comment.

The rest is here:

Putin Loses Another Close Ally as Russia Closes in on 100 Days in Ukraine - Newsweek

The sharp polarisation between mainly western liberal democracies and the rest of the world in perceptions of Russia has been laid bare in an annual global poll of attitudes towards democracy.

Within Europe, 55% of those surveyed for the Alliance of Democracies said they were in favour of cutting economic ties with Russia due to Vladimir Putins invasion of Ukraine, whereas in Asia there was a majority against, and in Latin America opinion was evenly split.

Negative views of Russia are largely confined to Europe and other liberal democracies. Positive views of Russia have been retained in China, Indonesia, Egypt, Vietnam, Algeria, Morocco, Malaysia, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia.

The annual Democracy Perception Index, carried out after the invasion of Ukraine, covers 52 highly populated countries in Asia, Latin America, the US and Europe.

Majorities in a total of 20 countries thought economic ties with Russia should not be cut due to the war in Ukraine. They included Greece, Kenya, Turkey, China, Israel, Egypt, Nigeria, Indonesia, South Africa, Vietnam, Algeria, the Philippines, Hungary, Mexico, Thailand, Morocco, Malaysia, Peru, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia. Colombians were evenly split.

By contrast, among the 31 countries that favoured cutting ties, 20 were in Europe.

Although Russian diplomats will point to the findings as evidence that global public opinion does not share western interpretations of events in Ukraine, the level of distrust of Russia in some countries was high.

The countries with a widely held most negative view of Russia included Poland (net negative 87%), Ukraine (80%), Portugal (79%), Italy (65%), UK (65%), Sweden (77%), US (62%) and Germany (62%). Even in Hungary whose leader Viktor Orbn is an ally of Putin a net 32% have a negative view of Russia. In Venezuela, often seen as propped up by Russia, the local population has a net negative view of Russia of 36%.

Countries with a net positive view of Russia included India (36%) Indonesia (14%), Saudi Arabia (11 %), Algeria (29%), Morocco (4%), and Egypt (7%).

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Despite the mixed views about Russia, strong sympathy was shown for Ukraine. Most people surveyed in Asia, Latin America and Europe thought Nato, the US and the EU could do more to help Ukraine. In Latin America, 62% of respondents thought Nato has done too little and only 6% too much. In Europe 43% said Europe has done too little and 11% too much. In China, 34% said the US has done too much to help. Nearly half (46%) globally said that the European Union, United States and Nato were doing too little to assist Ukraine, while 11% said they are doing too much.

Negative perceptions of China are not as widespread as for Russia. British respondents were the most likely to want to cut economic ties with China if it invaded Taiwan.

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Negative views of Russia mainly limited to western liberal democracies, poll shows - The Guardian

This week, events in Ukraine continued to demonstrate the fluid nature of war. After their successes in the Battle of Kyiv, and the Battle of Kharkiv, the Ukrainians ceded territory in the east. It is indicative of the Russian military's determination to continue its Ukrainian campaign.

The Russians have made steady, if slow, progress in the conduct of their eastern offensive in the Donbas. These tactical advances are probably part of a wider Russian operational design to envelop the territory that forms the last parts of Luhansk under Ukrainian control.

But the Russian successes in the east are also indicators of another more important trend in this war: the Russians are starting to learn from their earlier failures.

Before exploring this in detail, a short detour is necessary to define a method for exploring where the Russians have learned.

Military organisationsincluding in Russia, the US and Australia use principles of war to instruct their soldiers, develop common tactics, and to organise combat and support formations. These principles are, in effect, maxims that represent essential truths about the practice of successful wars, military campaigns and operations.

In the context of this exploration of Russian learning, three principles of war in particular stand out. These are: selection and maintenance of the aim, concentration of force, and cooperation.

In war, and in any military action, the aim must be simple, widely understood and within the means of the forces available. The initial Russian war aims were broad ranging, and did not count on massive Western military aid to Ukraine.

It quickly became clear that these aims were beyond Russian military capacity. The Russians had allocated an invading military that was smaller than that of the state it was attacking, and failed.

More recently, the Russians as highlighted in briefings by senior Russian officershave consolidated their aims to narrower objectives in the east. And they have shifted their forces to give themselves a better chance at achieving these tighter strategic goals. This leads to the second principle of war where Russia has clearly learned.

Success in war often depends on achieving a concentration of military force at the most effective time and place. This should then be supported by efforts such as information operations and diplomacy to magnify the impact of the concentrated military forces.

Early on, the Russians sought to prosecute their war against Ukraine on four ground fronts in the north, northeast, east and south of the country. Another front was the clearly disconnected air and missile attacks against Ukraine.

As shown by the failures around Kyiv and Kharkiv, the Russians have had to reassess this approach. First, they realigned the deployment of their forces so they had fewer "fronts" to support. Second, the Russians have focused their offensive operations in one part of the country the east while largely defending other parts such as in the south and the northeast.

The preponderance of their combat power is in the east, especially Luhansk. They are using this concentration of combat forces to bludgeon their way through Ukrainian defences, destroy military units and population centres, and capture additional territory.

But in stripping forces from other regions, it has made them vulnerable elsewhere. The Ukrainians have thus launched a counter offensive around Kherson.

A final principle of war is cooperation. This is a principle that aims to ensure resources are employed to best effect through the well-planned and cunning orchestration of operations at every level.

Early in the war, it was clear the Russian Army and the Russian Air Force were poorly aligned. At the same time, the Russian inability to effectively use combined arms operations on the groundto synchronise infantry, tanks, artillery, engineers and logistics was another indication of their lack of adherence to the principle of cooperation.

The operations in the east demonstrate a degree of learning in this regard. The Russian air force sortie rate has improved, and it is concentrating much of its efforts to support ground operations in the east. At the same time, there is coordination of Russian ground forces. They have moved slowly and cautiously, used their advantage in artillery well, and have been careful not to expose their logistics to attack.

And at the higher level, the Russians have appointed a senior Russian general as the overall commander of the Ukrainian campaign. It has been a brutal and destructive approach in the east, but the Russians are likely to see it as successful.

This begs a larger question: What might be the impact of this Russian tactical learning be on the overall conduct of the war? The Russians have generated tactical momentum in the east, but how far they can carry their current advances will depend on their logistics, Ukraine's defensive strategy, and the conduct of Ukrainian offensives elsewhere that might draw away Russian forces.

And despite recent Russian gains, the overall strategic balance still appears to favour Ukraine. They have significant reserves of personnel available. The Ukrainians have also demonstrated better tactical leadership, morale and strategic planning than the Russians.

And finally, the massive inflow of Western arms, including longer range rocket artillery and precision weapons, gives the Ukrainians a significant edge over a Russian Army whose access to such systems is being constrained by Western sanctions.

All wars are ultimately a learning competition; they are in effect an adaptation battle.

Russia has demonstrated some capacity to learn from its mistakes at the tactical level. But its ability as a nation to learn and adapt to the economic, diplomatic, informational and other impacts of its flawed strategy to invade Ukraine remains to be seen.

Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.

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The Russians may be learning from the mistakes of the Ukraine war. But are they adapting fast enough? - ABC News

National flag flies over the Russian Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia May 27, 2022. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

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May 30 (Reuters) - SPB Exchange, Russia's second-largest bourse, said on Monday it will transfer up to 14% of U.S.-listed shares that its clients possess to a non-trading account after the central bank said it will restrict trading in some foreign shares.

Financial links between Russia and external markets have been damaged by sweeping sanctions that the West imposed after Moscow sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24.

Citing the need to protect investors' rights and interests, the central bank said it decided from May 30 to restrict trading in foreign shares that have been blocked by international clearing houses, except for shares of foreign companies that carry out "production and economic activity mostly in Russia."

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SPB said the decision was caused by restrictions imposed by Euroclear and will impact shares with primary listing in the United States.

"Freely traded foreign securities will be completely separated from securities that cannot be traded until the change in Euroclear's policy towards Russian depositories," SBP said in a statement.

This implies investors that used to trade U.S. stocks via SPB Exchange, which specialises on foreign shares, will retain their ownership rights but will lose access to some of their holdings of U.S. stocks, including blue chips, such as Apple (AAPL.O) or Tesla .

Tinkoff, one of Russia's leading brokerages, said it had engaged lawyers to protects interest and rights of its clients.

SPB saw a surge in trading volumes during the COVID-19 pandemic and, before Feb. 24, was hoping for a listing on the Nasdaq Global Select Market in the first half of 2022 after its domestic initial public offering. read more

In money terms, the separation will affect less than 14% of all shares in clients' portfolio and will have no impact on the number of shares the bourse offers, which currently exceeds 1,650, SBP said.

The central bank's decision will not affect shares of companies with Russian roots, such as HeadHunter Group (HHR.O) Yandex N.V. (YNDX.O), Ozon Holdings PLC (OZON.O) and Cian PLC (CIAN.N).

"The Bank of Russia, SPB Exchange and trading participants are constantly working to develop a system solution, interacting with international counterparties," SPB said.

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Reporting by Reuters; editing by David Evans

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Russia freezes trading in up to 14% of U.S.-listed shares on SPB Exchange - Reuters

Ukrainian officials sound alarm on Mariupol horrors elsewhere in Donbas

Officials in Ukraine are appealing for additional assistance from the west as the Donbas region risks a potential repeat of horrors seen in the city of Mariupol in recent months.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also appealed for additional forces in his nightly address on Friday, as Moscow-backed separatists have pounded the countrys industrial region in recent days.

He said the attacks could leave communities in ashes, accusing Moscow of pursuing an obvious policy of genocide through mass deportations and killings of civilians.

He took a harsh tone when discussing the response from the European Union, which is locked in discussions on a deal to invoke a sixth round of sanctions one currently being blocked by Hungary, one of Moscows closest allies in the EU.

Mariupol has been left in shambles after a sustained siege, with hundreds killed and survivors forcibly deported to Russia.

EU leaders have attempted to negotiate changes to ease the global food crisis in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but said Friday little progress has been made.

If you are asking me if there are openings for peace, the answer is no, Italian Premier Mario Draghi said told reporters of the talks.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer also stated that he has engaged with Putin on a prisoner exchange, stating the Russian president indicated efforts to arrange one would be intensified.

Updated at 18.25EDT

Kari Paul here. It is nearly 3am in Kyiv and I am logging off for the day as we close the blog for the evening. Here are the latest updates on the war in Ukraine you should know.

Updated at 20.22EDT

Ukrainian officials sound alarm on Mariupol horrors elsewhere in Donbas

Officials in Ukraine are appealing for additional assistance from the west as the Donbas region risks a potential repeat of horrors seen in the city of Mariupol in recent months.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy also appealed for additional forces in his nightly address on Friday, as Moscow-backed separatists have pounded the countrys industrial region in recent days.

He said the attacks could leave communities in ashes, accusing Moscow of pursuing an obvious policy of genocide through mass deportations and killings of civilians.

He took a harsh tone when discussing the response from the European Union, which is locked in discussions on a deal to invoke a sixth round of sanctions one currently being blocked by Hungary, one of Moscows closest allies in the EU.

Mariupol has been left in shambles after a sustained siege, with hundreds killed and survivors forcibly deported to Russia.

EU leaders have attempted to negotiate changes to ease the global food crisis in talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but said Friday little progress has been made.

If you are asking me if there are openings for peace, the answer is no, Italian Premier Mario Draghi said told reporters of the talks.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer also stated that he has engaged with Putin on a prisoner exchange, stating the Russian president indicated efforts to arrange one would be intensified.

Updated at 18.25EDT

Zelenskiy: Russian forces heavily striking Donbas

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaking in a short video address said the situation in Donbas is very difficult. He said Russian forces are concentrated in the coastal region of Ukraine and using maximum artillery reserves.

We are protecting our land in the way that our current defensive resources allow, he said. And we are doing everything to strengthen them.

Updated at 17.24EDT

Russia announced today that it expects to receive $14bn in additional energy revenue, reports AFP.

Russias finance minister announced today that the country is set to receive 1tn rubles in additional oil and gas revenues this year, noting that the additional income will be spent on Russias ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

We expect to receive up to a trillion rubles ($14.4 billion) in additional oil and gas revenues, according to the forecast that we have developed with the ministry of economic development, said finance minister Anton Siluanov during remarks that were broadcasted on Russian state television.

Siluanov further clarified that the money will be spent on additional payments to pensioners and families with children as well as to continue conducting a special operation in Ukraine, referring to Moscows invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 16.49EDT

Hello, Kari Paul here taking the helm of this blog for the next few hours. Stay tuned for updates.

The US is expected to send long-range rocket systems to Ukraine that could be announced as early as next week, reports CNN.

Following military challenges in eastern Ukraine, US officials have confirmed that the US is prepared to send advanced, long-range missile systems to aid with fighting.

The rocket systems, multiple launch rocket system or MLRS, have been a top request of Ukraine officials who say it is necessary to ward off Russias advancements.

The missile systems can fire a stream of rockets many miles further than current Ukraine weaponry, reports the Washington Post. The rocket system could be apart of a larger military package to Ukraine.

Read the full CNN article here.

Updated at 16.41EDT

Karim Khan, the prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC), has called on Russia to cooperate with investigations into alleged war crimes committed in Ukraine, reports AFP.

Khan said that Russian officials have refused to work with the ICC amid war crime investigations, but noted that his door is open if Russia wants to assist.

The invitation is there. My door is open, and I will also keep knocking on the door of the Russian federation, said Karim Khan in an AFP interview.

If there are allegations that the Russian federation have, if theres information that they have, if they are conducting their own investigations or prosecutions or have information thats relevant share it with us, Khan added.

Russia and Ukraine are not members of the ICC, but Ukraine has cooperated with Khans office during their investigation and accepted the courts jurisdiction.

While Khan noted that any war crime perpetrators would be brought to justice, the prosecutor refused to confirm if Vladimir Putin could be named a suspect given his involvement in Russias invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 15.54EDT

US president Joe Biden accused Vladimir Putin of attempting to wipe out Ukrainian culture and identity during a speech today, reports the Washington Post.

During a commencement speech to the US Naval academys graduating class today, Biden said that Putin was trying to wipe out the culture and identity of the Ukrainian people.

Biden further criticized Russias attack on Ukraine hospitals, schools and other civilian buildings.

Biden also said that Putin inadvertently Nato-ized all of Europe after Sweden and Finland sought out membership in the alliance following Russias invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 15.30EDT

Maya Yang

The United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner (OHCHR) has released the latest figures on the Ukraine wars human toll.

The latest UN figures show that from 24 February to 26 May, 4,031 civilians died during Russias invasion of Ukraine due to shelling and air strikes, including 261 children.

A total 4,735 civilians were injured. The OHCHR estimates that the actual toll of the invasion is much higher than provided estimates.

From Buzzfeed News Christopher Miller:

Most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes, the OHCHR said in a statement, referring to the new figures.

OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration, it added.

Updated at 15.04EDT

Ukraines Moscow-backed Orthodox church said today that it was cutting ties with Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, reports AFP.

The church declared full independence from Russia in a move that defied Russias spiritual authorities.

We disagree with the position of Patriarch Kirill of Moscow on the war, said the church, referring to the head of the Russian Orthodox church who is also a close ally of Vladimir Putin.

The council condemns war as a violation of Gods commandment You shall not kill and expresses condolences to all those who suffered in the war, said the church following a council meeting focused on Russias aggression where the Ukraine Orthodox church declared full autonomy from Russia.

The Moscow branch of the Ukraines Orthodox church was previously fully aligned with Patriarch Kirill, who expressed his support of Putin and the invasion of Ukraine.

Updated at 14.44EDT

A Nato defence ministry meeting will take place on 15 and 16 June, reports Nexta.

The meeting, taking place in Brussels, will include participation from Ukraine, Georgia, Finland and Sweden.

Updated at 15.27EDT

Ukrainian forces may be forced to retreat from the final pocket of resistance in the eastern region of Luhansk to avoid being captured, the regional governor, Serhiy Gaidai, said.

In a post on Telegram, Gaidai referred to the near-surrounded cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, writing:

The Russians will not be able to capture Luhansk region in the coming days as analysts have predicted.

He added:

We will have enough strength and resources to defend ourselves. However it is possible that in order not to be surrounded we will have to retreat.

Updated at 13.42EDT

The Kremlin is considering a second assault on Kyiv despite failing to capture the Ukrainian capital at the outset of the war, according to the independent news website, Meduza.

Sources close to the Kremlin and inside the Putin administration said confidence has spread to the leadership of United Russia, the countrys ruling political party, that a full-scale victory in Ukraine is possible before the end of the year.

One source said:

Well grind them [the Ukrainians] down in the end. The whole thing will probably be over by the fall.

Russias leadership has minimum and maximum thresholds for declaring a successful and completed special military operation in Ukraine, sources said.

The bare minimum needed to declare victory is the complete capture of the Donbas region, according to sources, while the maximum goal would be the capture of Kyiv.

The editor of the English-language edition of Meduza, Kevin Rothrock, said the report suggests that Ukraine is losing the information war for the first time since the invasion.

Kremlin officials are also sceptical that western countries can sustain their massive financial and military support to Ukraine if the war drags on, the website reports.

Another source said:

Sooner or later, Europe will tire of helping. This is both money and arms production that they need for themselves. Closer to the fall, theyll have to negotiate [with Russia] on gas and oil, before the cold season arrives.

It has not been possible to independently verify this information.

Updated at 13.30EDT

Updated at 13.17EDT

Austrias chancellor, Karl Nehammer, said Vladimir Putin told him that Moscow was ready to discuss a prisoner swap with Ukraine and that there should be progress on the matter.

During the 45-minute call between the two leaders, the Russian president had expressed readiness to discuss a prisoner swap with Ukraine, Nehammer told reporters.

Nehammer said:

The Russian president has assured us that the International Red Cross must and should have access to the prisoners of war. Of course, he is also demanding access to Russian prisoners of war in Ukraine.

He added:

If he is really ready to negotiate is a complex question.

In a separate statement, the Kremlin said Putin had accused Ukraine of sabotaging talks with Moscow during his call with the Austrian chancellor.

Putin also informed Nehammer that attempts to blame Russia for difficulties in shipping grain worldwide were groundless, pointing instead to western sanctions, the Kremlin said.

Nehammer said the Russian president had given signals that he is quite willing to allow exports via the seaports, adding:

The real willingness will only become apparent when it ... is actually implemented.

Updated at 12.53EDT

A video appears to show a series of explosions near Novomykhailivka in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces are close to encircling Sievierodonetsk in the Luhansk region and have increased attacks in Donbas generally.

Updated at 12.30EDT

Continued here:

More than 4,000 civilians have died since Russia invaded, says UN as it happened - The Guardian

In a speech on Thursday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed the long-awaited outlines of the Biden administrations official posture toward China. Rather than Vladimir Putins Russia, Mr. Blinken said, it is China that represents the most potent and determined threat to the American-championed world order.

Only China, he continued, has both the intent to reshape the international order and the power to do so, he said. The United States will seek to rally coalitions of other nations to meet Beijings challenge.

The writing had been on the wall. Just days earlier, President Biden pledged to defend Taiwan if China moved to seize the democratically ruled island; he met with regional allies; and his administration proposed a new plan to counter Chinas growing economic clout in Asia.

But the intensifying fixation on Chinas potential to disrupt the world order shrinks space for cooperation with Beijing and distracts from the real threat in the world: Russia.

Under Mr. Putin, Russia demolished the Chechen capital of Grozny in 2000, invaded Georgia in 2008, annexed Crimea in 2014 and used its air force in 2015 and 2016 against opponents of Syrias Bashar al-Assad. His regime has used cyberattacks, brutalized or assassinated domestic opponents and passed laws that impose draconian prison sentences on anyone questioning the state. He launched a brutal invasion of Ukraine and has hinted at possibly using nuclear weapons. Mr. Putin has not just declared his intent to redraw international borders and resurrect the ghost of the former Soviet Union, he has acted on it.

Thwarting further Russian misbehavior through trade embargoes, preventing resupply of the countrys military and establishing an international phalanx against Mr. Putin requires global cooperation. That includes China.

We need to be cleareyed about China, of course. It is without doubt a more powerful potential adversary than Russia on every metric military, economic and ideological. The Communist Party, under the firm control of Xi Jinping, pursues a form of state-sponsored capitalism that disadvantages foreign companies in the China market and builds up powerful national champions. The primacy of the party trumps rule of law, and free-speech and political rights are harshly suppressed. Chinas appalling treatment of its Uyghur minority and suppression of basic rights in Hong Kong have been rightly condemned.

China also spends more on its military than any country besides the United States, which is intended to counter American military pre-eminence in East Asia. Rising nationalism is expressed in the belief that Taiwan must be reunified with mainland China and that the South China Sea is a Chinese lake.

But these issues dont necessarily make China a threat to American prosperity and security, not unless you believe in every antagonistic word coming from Chinese officials, every war plan devised by its military, and the inevitability of the Thucydides trap the notion that emerging powers will tend toward conflict with established ones. Neither does it follow that any country which does not adhere to liberal democratic norms is a budding threat to the United States. The United States has never based its entire foreign policy on human rights, nor should it; that would be a recipe for endless intervention and conflict globally. And grounding policy on what might happen is an equally slippery slope.

The Communist Party views the United States as an adversary. But it has been willing to engage diplomatically, has repeatedly championed the inviolability of state borders and is not averse to self-interested compromise over issues like trade and climate change. Its rhetoric over Taiwan has been little more than saber-rattling and appears restrained compared to how the United States has historically treated Latin America.

Advocates of a new Cold War with China will surely roll their eyes at these assertions. They will say that China has wiggled out of trade commitments, repeatedly violated agreements on climate, used espionage to steal intellectual property, and is building a military designed to inflict harm on the United States and its allies.

But it is logical for an emerging great power like China to make plans for its defense, including potential conflict with the United States. Its also worth remembering that China is deeply intertwined with the U.S. and global economy. It holds more than a trillion dollars worth of American debt in the form of U.S. Treasury securities, benefits from the cumulative effect of U.S. investment in China and needs access to foreign markets. All of these realities shape its behavior just as much as the possibility of a future confrontation with the United States. Russia, by contrast, is constrained only by how far Mr. Putin is willing to go.

Rather than cast China as our next great enemy, American security would be better served by the realization that Russias behavior only highlights the ways that China and the United States remain bound to each other despite their tensions. We should nurture rather than endanger these ties, which are crucial for both countries to remain prosperous, stable and secure. We should also not allow our dislike of Chinas domestic system to be the basis of how we engage a country whose centrality to the global system is second only to ours.

Its rarely wise to take on two adversaries at once. Mr. Biden should find new ways to work with China, rather than trying to coerce it to be different. He should take bold steps to tone down the rhetoric, such as lifting Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods in return for Beijings reduced support for Putin. Otherwise, he will miss an opportunity to be a savvy, strategic president rather than one who fights with China at every turn.

Mr. Karabell is the founder of The Progress Network and the author of Inside Money: Brown Brothers Harriman and the American Way of Power. He is a former portfolio manager of the China-U. S. Growth Fund with Fred Alger Management.

The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. Wed like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com.

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Opinion | China Is Not the Biggest Threat to the World Order. Its Russia. - The New York Times