Category Archives: Resource Based Economy

May 11, 2020 @ 15:37 by Steven Hugill

A North East business membership organisation has launched a programme to instil fresh confidence across the regions commercial environment.

The Entrepreneurs Forum has unveiled the Forward initiative.

Shaped by the views of members and partners, the scheme revolves around a programme of events that combine expertise and experience to focus on a successful future.

Jonathan Lamb, the Forums chief executive, says the resource together with access to additional mentoring and professional advice will allow members to prepare for opportunities that will arise as the country and the world begins to emerge from COVID-19 lockdown.

The programme will initially continue with online events which will evolve into physical events as restrictions are eased and focus on a range of subjects to help members lay foundations for sustained growth.

For the past six weeks, many businesses have been focused on dealing with the immediate challenges created by the lockdown, such as changing working practices, staffing and finance, said Jonathan [pictured].

However, now is the time to look to the future and the opportunities it will bring.

While supporting our members to overcome the current challenges of COVID-19 is still our priority, our Forward programme shines a light on the optimism and positivity of our regions business owners who are already making long-term plans for business growth and prosperity.

Many entrepreneurs have had to revaluate how their business works and we must now all work together, proactively, to develop successful long-term strategies and ensure entrepreneurs continue to drive the North East economy forward.

Reacting to the Forums announcement, Colin Hewitt, head of the company commercial team at Newcastle-based law firm Ward Hadaway, said: Moving forward means understanding our clients needs and objectives and making sure we are in the best position and have the right skills to help them to succeed.

Our priority is to support our clients through these challenging times and being ready and able to help them take advantage of the opportunities that arise as the economy recovers.

Russell Croisdale, managing director of Encore Envelopes, which operates sites in Washington and Peterlee, east Durham, said it will continue investing in additional equipment during the second half of the year to meet a growing demand from existing clients and potential new sales.

He added: For our envelope business, after six months of significant research and development, we have two new lines, which were launching onto the marketplace to generate additional volumes into the market.

Dean Benson, founder and chief executive of Stockton-based e-commerce specialists Visualsoft, added: In general, the future is about innovation, buying online and supporting the business community.

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Entrepreneurs' Forum launches Forward initiative to boost business confidence - North East Times

Any trader who took the prime minister's advice and schlepped into the dealing room today is probably wondering why they bothered

The Bank of Englands chief economist, Andy Haldane has warned that the coronavirus pandemic could cause companies and households to curtail spending for some time.

All crises leave scars and this crisis assuredly will be no exception, said Haldane on a Royal Economic Society webcast.

On the plus side there have been indications of stabilisation in some spending measures recently, Haldane said, albeit at very low levels; the employment market remains a train wreck, however.

Talking of stabilising at low levels, the Footsie has apparently parked the bus at around the 5,927 level, down 9 points (0.2%).

US indices opened lower without even bothering to throw investors a dummy like the Footsie did this morning.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 181 points (0.8%) at 24,151 and the S&P 500 was odd 15 points (0.5%) at 2,915.

The Footsie has at least pared its losses and is now down 12 points (0.2%) at 5,924.

As has been the case in Europe, US shares are set to take a step back today.

Spread betting quotes point to the Dow Jones opening around 245 points lower at 24,086 and the S&P 500 30 points lower at 2,900.

On the earnings front, the first-quarter reporting season is now drawing to a close in the US and last week did see estimates revised up marginally. The consensus is now looking for a mere 12% year on year drop; however, this good news did not extend to projections for the rest of the year which continue to be revised lower, with a 40% fall now expected in the second quarter, said Rupert Thompson, the chief investment officer at asset manager, Kingswood.

In London, the FTSE 100s losses lengthened over the lunchtime session with the index drifting to 5,905, down 31 points (0.5%).

British Gas owner (), down 7.4% at 36.38p is jostling with budget airline easyJet PLC () for the Footsies wooden spoon ahead of the formers trading statement due out this week.

At the moment, easyJet is still holding the wooden spoon; the shares, which have lost two-thirds of their value this year, are down 8.1% at 488.48p after analysts at Citibanks said the Prime Ministers message on Sunday about the lockdown vague as it was does not bode well for the airline industry.

Johnson confirmed that travellers into the UK will be required to self-isolate on arrival in the UK.

Fears of a second wave of infections have soured equity investors initially optimistic mood today.

The FTSE 100 was down 9 points (0.2%) at 5,927.

Noting some worrying trends in Korea and Germany regarding the coronavirus, Saxo Banks Peter Garnry said"[The]number ofCOVID-19 cases have recently surgedand today saw 34 new cases the highest since 9 April as new chains of the virus has started at nightclubs in Seoul. This comes afterGermany just announced that its R0 (virus reproduction value) increased to 1.1as it opened up society. These stories tell us that reopening the economies may not be that easy and LesEchos has in collaboration with Kayrros-EY Consulting made a new real-time economic activity index based on satellite images. This shows thatChinese activity despite reopening is still down 25%from levels before the COVID-19 outbreak."

This obviously does not bode well for the tourism industry.

British Airways owner IAG PLC () remains under the cosh, as its boss, Willie Walsh, addressed parliaments transport committee.

The shares shed 3.6% at 183.6p after Walsh admitted the company was burning through cash.

Weve probably exhausted every avenue that I can think of at this stage to shore up our liquidity. The cash has been reducing significantly and that will be the case as we go through May, June and July. Were not taking in any revenue, Walsh told MPs.

Meanwhile, package tours operator and hotels owner (), up 1.4% at 268.6p, has unveiled a 10-point plan for the reopening of its hotels.

It means the end for the time being of the all you can eat self-service buffet, which is probably not a bad thing.

The 10 points can be accessed via the tweet below if you fancy practising your German, although curiously point one is online check-in, which suggests there is no 74-letter-long word for it in the German language.

Londons blue-chips are lower on balance after a bright start fizzled out.

The FTSE 100 was down 14 points (0.2%) at 5,922, with the heavily-weighted oil majors partly responsible for the decline as the oil price heads south.

() was down 1.8% at 310.25p and PLC () was off 0.7% at 1,254.6p as Brent crude for July delivery slipped 83 cents to US$30.14 a barrel.

Away from the big guns, Georgia Healthcare Group PLC (LON:GHG) was in rude health, up 14% at 92p after it signed a US$ 25mln two-year loan agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to fund potential working capital and operational expenditure requirements for the group's role in fighting the coronavirus pandemic in the country.

Sticking with eastern Europe, up for sale PLC (LON:VGA) shot up for the second day in succession after a consultant to the company was hoodwinked into revealing confidential information about the formal sales process.

A case of WhatsApp, doc?

London investors were bathing in sunny optimism on Monday morning in the hope of an imminent end to cabin fever.

The FTSE 100 was up 49 points (0.8%) at 5,984, although travel stocks were conspicuous by their absence from the list of risers.

Despite the first rumblings of a lifting of lockdown restrictions in the UK it seems fairly obvious that social distancing is likely to be with us for quite some time which means people will be travelling a lot less, as well as going out a lot less, according to CMCs Michael Hewson.

Small wonder then that low-cost airline easyJet PLC () was the Footsies biggest faller, with a 6.7% fall to 495.7p.

British Airways owner International Consolidated Airlines () was down 3.2% at 184.45p while aerospace-focused engineers () and () were off 5.4% at 243.9p and 3.8% at 276.2p respectively.

Cruises operator (), down 1.7% at 921.2p, was also friendless as market pundits questioned how long it would take for international travel to become as prevalent as it was before the pandemic.

Away from the FTSE 100, Tissue Regenix PLC () was the star performer in early trading after it announced a new product line that should add materially to revenue over the next couple of years.

The shares shot up 30% to 0.875p after the company announced a collaboration with an unnamed top 10 global healthcare company.

() jumped 26% to 1.825p after it hooked up with telecoms giant BT to co-produce a new competitive gaming series, The BT Sport FIFA Challenge.

The FTSE 100 made a better than anticipated start to proceedings on Monday morning as the potential incremental easing of lockdown restrictions here in the UK outweighed worries over a second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19).

The index of UK blue-chips opened 57 points higher at 5,988.77.

That said, it was a confusing message from the UK prime minister, who has been panned by the opposition, the leaders of Scotland and Wales, and in the media. Adding to the mounting sense of chaos was cabinet member Dominic Raabs intervention, urging workers to stay at home until Wednesday this as commuter trains in London were already full to capacity.

Boris Johnsons plan to begin the phased and conditional re-opening of the UK economy has come under significant fire from many for being unclear and risking a second spike in the virus in the UK, said James Hughes at Scope Markets.

Intercontinental Hotel Group (), up 3.5%, led the blue-chip index with optimistic bargain hunters buoyed by a repeated buy recommendation from .

BT Group () enjoyed a 3.1% bounce after the recent sell-off, prompted by the cancellation of the dividend. The cash will be diverted into a 12bn scheme to roll fibre broadband out across the country, according to the Telegraph.

On the FTSE 250, there was some hope for investors in Cineworld () as the phased end to lockdown suggested that places such as multiplexes could start opening in July if all goes to plan. The stock was marked 6.4% higher.

Among the tiddlers, Open Orphan, the healthcare group, opened 22% higher after inking a COVID-19 testing deal.

Software group KRM22 surged 19% following a City fundraiser that brought in 1mln and was done at a premium to the prevailing share price.

() shares jumped in early deals on Monday followingnews of a farm-out deal for exploration permit (EP) 155 in the Amadeus Basin, in Australias Northern Territory. Westmarket Oil & Gas, a subsidiary of , has inked a deal to earn a 70% stake by investing in work programmes at the project. Mosman will retain 30% and the transaction allows for the AIM-quoted firm to be carried in an exploration well in return for a further 15% interest in the project.

() has partnered with BT Sport to co-produce a new competitive gaming series, The BT Sport FIFA Challenge. The esports firm said the six-episode series, which will encompass a four-team tournament featuring members of BT Sports football and rugby talent, will be produced remotely using BTs newly developed remote technology, while both firms will work together to oversee gaming content and competition elements. The series will use the FIFA20 video game developed by game developer EA Sports and will feature sports stars such as Robbie Savage, Joe Cole and Ugo Monye while Chelcee Grimes, singer, songwriter and Fulham Ladies player, will captain a women's team.

Bidstack Group PLC() has confirmed to investors that it will deliver in-game advertising forCodemasters Group Holdings PLCs () new DIRT 5 game. DIRT 5 is due for release in October 2020 on the new generation consoles Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5 along with the current Xbox One and Playstation 4 systems and PC (via Steam). It will also be available via Google Stadia by early 2021. "It's great to be working with Codemasters, using our technology to deliver native in-game advertising for DIRT 5, which is the first racing game to be confirmed for the all-new Xbox Series x, James Draper, Bidstack chief executive said in a statement.

() has signed an exclusive distribution agreement with Taipei-based nutraceuticals firm MAXCARE to commercialise its SlimBiome product in Taiwan. The AIM-listed group said MAXCARE was well placed to educate customers on the benefits and functionality SlimBiome can provide and had a team of registered dieticians to support commercialisation, with market exclusivity to be linked to minimum sales targets being achieved.

() has received a further loan of US$417,000 under the US government-backed coronavirus (COVID-19) business support scheme. This funding is in addition to the receipt of a similar loan, for US$629,000, announced in mid-April. Following receipt of the loan, the board now expects that the group's current cash runway will extend at least until after the first week of August.

() said its subsidiary hVIVO has agreed a coronavirus (COVID-19) antibody testing partnership with NASDAQ-listed medical devices firm . hVIVO will use s recently-certified MosaiQ system to screen for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. The technology is 100% effective in detecting the tell-tale antibodies and was able to rule out a person having them in 98.8% of cases.

Open Orphan also announced the appointment of finnCap Ltd as its joint broker with immediate effect.

() has raised 4.75mln through a conditional share placing, with the funds earmarked for an accelerated drill programmeat the Zaranou gold projectin Cte d'Ivoire. The group is issuing some 67.85mln new shares priced at 7p each. The funding comprises two tranches, due to the companys existing allowances, with just over 50mln new shares issued in the first tranche and a further 17.8mln to be issued conditionally with the passing of resolutions at a general meeting in June.

PLC () () has said it will showcase data via four submissions at the virtual replacement for the worlds leading cancer conference. Leading the way aretwo poster sessions on StemPrintER atthe American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) summit. The technology is being developed to predict the potential recurrence of breast cancer. In one of those posters, there is a direct comparison of Tiziana's product with the current market leader, Oncotype DX. A further two e-abstracts assess the potential of the firms Milciclib drug candidate in treating hepatocellular carcinoma.

BlueRock Diamonds PLC () has said mining and processing operations have restarted at its Kareevlei diamond mine in the Kimberley region of South Africa. The company added that it expects to be operating at capacity by the end of this month but said that its expansion plans for the mine remain on hold.

() has acquired twenty purpose-built medical centres in England and Wales and conditionally signed contracts for a further two. The consideration is 47.1mln for the acquired centres with a further 6.9mln payable for the additional two. PHP said that the acquired properties are leased to GPs, NHS operators or pharmacies with 91% of their rental income backed by the UK government. The deal will increase the size of FTSE250- group's portfolio to 510 properties worth just under 2.5bn and with annual rents of 131mln.

() has updated investors on the Baita Plai polymetallic mine project, in Romania, where it has placed new hire Adrian Badita as general manager. In a statement, the firm said Badita, who will report into chief operating officer Craig Harvey, will be responsible for the overall management of Baita Plai including, but not limited, to ensuring the safety and health of all the team at the mine as well as implementing and monitoring the companys development plan.Badita is due to start his position on May 18. He brings over 20 years mining experience including progressive supervisory experience in all phases of the mining industry, with specific experience including drill & blast, haulage, waste management, risk management strategy and environmental site rehabilitation.

s (LON:AYP) has revealed that its business performance exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2020. The commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company, which is focused on life-threatening rare diseases, said its revenues in the first quarter of this year rose by 30% to US$44.6mln from US$34.3mln in the corresponding period of 2019. Revenues were 10% higher quarter-on-quarter. The group made an adjusted operating profit of US$4.6mln before finance expenses versus a loss of US$2.8mln in the same quarter of last year.

() has boosted the resource estimate at its Kizilcukur project in Turkey. The new resource stands at 21,100 ounces of gold and 620,000 ounces of silver, with contained metal on three main veins, the group said, with 85% of the tonnagein the measured and indicated categories. Higher grade ore has been found on the Zeki Main Vein, and trial mining has commenced, it added. "This is a significant improvement over the previous resource estimate, which integrates the latest drilling data and geological modelling, Arianas managing director Dr Kerim Sener said in a statement.

(), the exploration company-focused on West Africa, said it plans to commence its maiden drilling programme later this year on its Bibemi gold project in Cameroon, subject to the easing of coronavirus (COVID-19) related travel restrictions. The AIM-listed firm noted that results from its exploration programme in the fourth quarter of 2019 have enabled the company to expand its planned 2020 drilling campaign at the Bakassi Zone to almost 2,000 metres (m).

() has announced itis to acquire 21 prospecting licences inside the Kalahari Copper and Limpopo Mobile Belts in Botswana from Crocus-Serv (Pty) Ltd.covering 14,875 square kilometres. The consideration for the acquisition comprises 38.8mln shares and 10,082 in cash.Galileo will conduct due diligence during a 30-day exclusivity period. "We are very pleased with this proposed acquisition, Galileo chief executive Colin Bird said in a statement posted after the market close on Thursday.

s () has confirmed the onshore UK firm is fully funded for all its current drilling and well testing commitments in its full-year 2019 results statement. The AIM-quoted company told investors it had a 5.5mln cash balance at the start of May 2019 and it remains debt-free. "My confidence in respect of Union Jack's future remains highly positive, executive chairman David Bramhill said in the statement.

() said it has received initial test results from abulk sample of pegmatite-hosted lithium mineralisation taken from the Bougouni lithium project in southern Mali. The group said the recoveries from the Bougouni bulk sample rang in at up to 83%, to give a 5.5%-to-6% Li2O spodumene product. Thatis significantly higher than the 71% recovery used in Kodal Minerals' initial feasibility study and indicates upside on the project. It also said the spodumene concentrate is low in impurities with iron content reported at below 0.5%

() said it has raised around US$1.72mln through a new subscription to its US dollar-denominated corporate bond from high net worth individuals and family offices in the Middle East. The AIM-listed company said the result represented the second close of its corporate bond issuance programme of up to a combined total of US$10mln, through which it has raised around US$3.6mln to date.

has completed its US$290,000 investment agreement with D-Beta One EQ, YA II PN and Riverfort Global Opportunities PCC at anannual interest rate of 10%. "This agreement provides a further cash buffer as we approach finality in regard to both our EPO application at Zulu Lithium Pvt Limited and the ongoing negotiations at RHA Tungsten Private Limited ("RHA") in Zimbabwe, Premier Africans chief executive George Roach said in a statement. He added that he was also deeply grateful for the provision of US$106,000 in funding from Zimbabwes Ministry of Commerce and Industry.

() confirmed it has received a firm commitment to undertakea 1mln equity investment at 30p per share, a 27.7% premium toits closing price last Thursday, exceeding its initial fundraising target. The software firm said it remains in dialogue with other existing and new potential investors regarding addition investment to add to the total, with a further announcement to be made once the investor roadshow and fundraising is completed aroundMay 14. KRM22 said the proceeds will help strengthen its working capital facilities and accelerate growth, adding that it has also reached an agreement with its debt provider that it may draw down a further 500,000, conditional on completion of the fundraise.

KRM22 also unveiled a brief trading update for the year endedDecember 31, 2019, ahead of its final results, due to be announced next week, reporting that its adjusted (EBITDA) loss had narrowed to 3.07mln from 3.32mln in 2018 while revenues climbed to 4.1mln from 1.29mln.

() (), the Aquis Exchange-listed base and precious metals producer from its Hellyer Gold Mine in Tasmania Australia, announced that it has raised 150,694 gross from an issue of 2,620,766 new ordinary shares at 5.75p per share to a UK based institutional investor and a group of private investors for general working capital purposes.

() has placed its South African subsidiaries Afarak South Africa and Afarak Mogale into voluntary business rescue, following financial distress caused by coronavirus-related lock-downs. In a statement, Afaraks board of directors said there is a reasonable prospect of rescuing both. They added that Afarak Mogale Ltd and Afarak South Africa Ltdbeing placed into business rescue does not and will not affect the remaining mining assets and businesses held by the Afarak Group.

(() said late last Thursday that it has raised 850,000 from the sale of its interests in Partnering Health and Infracare LIFT to its main lender Invescare. The disposals reduce Ashley Houses outstanding loan with Invescare to 320,000. Ashley House said it is continuing to look for funding for its ongoing affordable housing strategy, without which it will not be able to trade.

CentralNic Group PLC (), the global internet platform that derives revenue from the subscription sales of domain names and web services, announced late on Thursday that Mike Turner has resigned as a non-executive director of the company with immediate effect having recently accepted a new full-time role as a partner with an international law firm. A stipulation of Turner's engagement is that he resign any non-executive director roles he currently holds and, as such, he is stepping down from his position at CentralNic. Ben Crawford, CentralNic CEO, commented: "Mike's experience and guidance has proven invaluable to CentralNic since he joined our board in 2015. We are sorry to see him leave, and we wish him every success in his new role."

(), a multi-divisional new media and technology business, said after the market close on Thursday that it has received a notice of exercise from the European High Growth Opportunities Securitization Fund in respect of conversion rights under the Convertible Bonds issued in respect of the first tranche drawn down under the Financing and Settlement Agreement entered into by the company on February 7, 2020, for the aggregate principal amount of 100,000 resulting in the issue to the investor of 500,000,000 new ordinary shares in the company.

The FTSE 100 is expected to nudge tentatively higher Monday amid preparations to restart the world economy after the coronavirus (COVID-19) shutdown.

Exerting a pull in the opposite direction was the niggling worry we could be in for a second wave of infections with South Korea and Germany reporting spikes in COVID-19 deaths.

This is something that traders should be mindful of as it might curtail the reopening of other economies for fear of a second wave of cases, said David Madden of CMC Markets.

In the US on Friday, the monthly non-farm payroll numbers were dire just not as dire as predicted, which left Wall Street in positive territory.

Looking ahead, it is expected to be a reasonably busy week for economic and corporate news.

On Wednesday Jerome Powells set-piece address is likely to be heavily scrutinised. Thechair of the US Federal Reserve expected to rule out pushing interest rates into negative territory for now.

Closer to home, the leaders of the Eurozone are being urged to quickly agree ona financial bail-out deal.

A big point of contention is how many grants will be dished out versus how many loans will be issued, said CMCs Madden. Broadly speaking, southern economies like Italy would prefer a higher portion of grants, while northern countries like The Netherlands would favour the issuance of loans. While the internal divisions remain, the bloc and the euro are likely to remain under strain.

Here in the UK, it looks set to be a busy week for corporate news with Vodafone () and Morrisons () leading the charge. TUI () will lay bare the scars of the corona outbreak on the travel sector when it reports on Wednesday.

Finals: ()

Interims: (), (), RDI REIT PLC (LON:RDI)

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FTSE 100 marking time; US indices open lower - Proactive Investors UK

Agriculture is on the verge of a glorious revolution and has the potential to put economy back on track. The ongoing crisis has encouraged the agriculture sector to reflect, reveal and reorient its strategies. Just as government has redirected its priorities, sector needs to take strategic, practical, bold and informed decisions.

It is encouraging and reassuring to witness efforts being made to bring back the fallow land to cultivation. These days, individual and groups tilling vacant plots in and around Thimphu city is a common sight. This shows we all can together unlock the potential and there is an opportunity for us to drive agriculture-led development pathway.

The prevailing belief is that Bhutan cannot stop imports altogether but we also know that we should focus on our comparative advantage and differentiation. We must also be mindful of challenges associated with achieving food self-sufficiency. However, we can certainly capitalise on our resources to meet our demands for selected commodities such as cereals, vegetables, meats, dairy, etc. Self-sufficiency in these areas is going to be a strategic leap towards achieving national food security.

The overarching vision of 12th Plan for agriculture sector is inclusive and sustainable development to ensure food self-sufficiency and economic self-reliance, which is underpinned by the principles of leaving no one behind, narrowing the gap between the rich and poor. A growing emphasis is given to accelerate agribusiness and commercialisation without compromising inclusiveness and sustainability aspects.

The governments policy of reaching out to young people seems to be succeeding as evidenced by increasing number of youth taking interest in agriculture. Production-driven agricultural plans are failing to create jobs for young people. This is largely because farming is entrenched with negative perception resulting from the prevailing realities and challenges. That is why key entry point for transition is to transformagriculture into a modern, smart and professionally managed business occupation.

Such transformations should be fuelled by an increased investment in science, technology, and innovation. It may require deploying institutional mechanism and necessary support to our farmers such as market access, storage, logistics, etc. The government has already ventured into these and is fast tracking. Making farming sector attractive is going to be successful only with the parallel attention and promotion of agri-processing, manufacturing, efficient supply chain, enterprises and services, among others.

The reform to transform farming sector has to be leveraged by clear resource mobilisation and investment strategy with special attention to implementation based on area based approach, incentivising farming, infrastructure, inputs supplies, water management, logistics, and organised marketsall as a package. Likewise, investment in agriculture should be given an increased impetus accompanied by dynamic policies, supportive environment and fast tracking of diversification and agribusiness results.

Royal Monetary Authoritys new loan policy and targeted micro-finance for farmers and youth is going to reinforce access to finance. Introduction of CSI Banks with much lesser interest rates has given fresh hopes to our farmers and agriculture enthusiasts.

Agriculture sector in Bhutan largely characterised by fragile mountain ecosystem is bound to face multifaceted challenges due to factors such as physical, social, economic and environmental. The fallout from Covid-19 has pushed other economic sectors spiraling down for which the government and sectors are ardently working hard to reshape it to normalcy.

Challenges besides, we have an opportunity to propel agricultural transformation by revitalising rural agricultural landscape with befitting modification and readjustment. It is easier said than done but with better coordination among agencies, centre and local governments agriculture sector can transcend beyond expectation in times to come. Partnership, commitment and collaborative working will be required to deliver the expected outcomes.

Contributed by Sangay Chophel

Thimphu

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are authors own.

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What is needed to propel agriculture transformation KuenselOnline - Kuensel, Buhutan's National Newspaper

Think the circular economy is a novel idea thats just come into fashion? Think again.

Theres evidence that the mantra reduce, reuse, recycle has its origins with the Romans, Greeks or even in the Bronze Age. A circular economy is based on the principles of designing out waste and pollution, keeping products and materials in use, and regenerating natural systems, according to one of its key proponents, the Ellen MacArthur Foundation, which also says the idea isnt new.

Modern recycling systems actually have their roots in ancient history.

Image: Ellen MacArthur Foundation

The idea of feedback, of cycles in real-world systems, is ancient and has echoes in various schools of philosophy, the Foundation says.

The global population is expected to reach close to 9 billion people by 2030 inclusive of 3 billion new middle-class consumers.This places unprecedented pressure on natural resources to meet future consumer demand.

A circular economy is an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by intention and design. It replaces the end-of-life concept with restoration, shifts towards the use of renewable energy, eliminates the use of toxic chemicals and aims for the elimination of waste through the superior design of materials, products, systems and business models.

Nothing that is made in a circular economy becomes waste, moving away from our current linear take-make-dispose economy. The circular economys potential for innovation, job creation and economic development is huge: estimates indicate a trillion-dollar opportunity.

The World Economic Forum has collaborated with the Ellen MacArthur Foundation for a number of years to accelerate the Circular Economy transition through Project MainStream - a CEO-led initiative that helps to scale business driven circular economy innovations.

Join our project, part of the World Economic Forums Shaping the Future of Environment and Natural Resource Security System Initiative, by contacting us to become a member or partner.

Here are three examples of how the ancient world embraced the circular economy:

1. Broken ceramics in Dubai 3,000 years ago

Polish scientists found tools in Dubai made from copper, bronze and iron refashioned from broken ceramic vessels. Broken ceramic vessels were not thrown away, the researchers told Science in Poland, instead they were modified and used as tools.

2. Sorting out the trash in Pompeii

The Romans also recycled, according to a report in the Guardian newspaper. Mounds of rubbish preserved after the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in 79 AD were staging grounds for cycles of use and reuse, says Professor Allison Emmerson, an American academic who works in Pompeii.

3. Glass recycling in Byzantine times

Archeologists working at the ancient city of Sagalassos, now part of Turkey, found glass chunks, fuel ash slag and kiln fragments, that indicate glass recycling, according to a paper in the Journal of Archaeological Science.

Even so, we should be careful not to overstate past populations commitment to recycling, argues Maikel Kuijpers, an assistant professor at the Max Planck Institute for the History of Science, on digital news site The Conversation.

Our ancestors were no ecological saints, he said. They polluted their surroundings through mining, burned down entire forests, and they too created massive amounts of waste.

And those themes are still relevant today.

A circular economy could result in as much as $4.5 trillion in economic benefits to 2030, according to the World Economic Forum. Just 8.6% of the world is currently circular, and the Forums work seeks to foster collaboration between private, public, civil society and expert stakeholders to accelerate the circular economy transition.

The current system is no longer working for businesses, people or the environment, the Ellen MacArthur Foundation says. We must transform all the elements of the take-make-waste system: how we manage resources, how we make and use products, and what we do with the materials afterwards. Only then can we create a thriving economy that can benefit everyone within the limits of our planet.

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not the World Economic Forum.

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Our ancestors were recycling thousands of years ago, studies find - World Economic Forum

Washington, D.C. Today, the Center for American Progress released a new column identifying key evidence-based thresholds that states should meet before reopening their economies. The estimates arefor both COVID-19 incidence levelsor the rate of occurrence of new casesand testing thresholdsfor all 50 states and the District of Columbia. They were generated using South Korea as a model, as it is the only sizable country in the world that has been able to control transmission without a lockdown.

The analysis finds that no state currently meets both the incidence and testing thresholdsestimated for their state; only eightstates Alaska, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Montana, Oregon, Vermont, and West Virginia meet the incidence threshold; and only Rhode Island meets the testing threshold. The estimates are particularly significant given that31 states have begun to partially reopen.

The only way to break the paralysis for the long term is for states to have sufficient strategies and resources needed tocontain the spread of COVID-19, saidTopher Spiro, vice president for Health Policy at CAP. These estimates suggest that, across the board, states decisions to relax stay-at-home efforts are premature and risk a substantial second wave and corresponding economic shutdown. Whether or not a states economy is legally open, the public will not engage with it unless and until the virus is contained.

Please click here to read Evidence-Based Thresholds States Must Meet To Control Coronavirus Spread and Safely Reopen Their Economies by Topher Spiro and Emily Gee.

For more information or to speak with an expert, please contact Colin Seeberger at gro.ssergorpnacirema@regrebeesc or 202-741-6292.

To find the latest CAP resources on the coronavirus, visit ourcoronavirus resource page.

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RELEASE: New Estimates Show That No States Meet Incidence and Testing Thresholds Necessary To Stave Off Future Outbreaks and Lockdowns - Center For...

In June, the United States and Iraq will launch a strategic dialogue that is supposed to address all issues in their bilateral relationship, including the presence of U.S. forces. With Iraq now serving as ground zero in the escalating confrontation between the United States and Iran, its hard not to feel like the U.S.-Iraqi relationship might be coming to a head. That is a good thing, and the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump should make sure that it does.

Its high time that Washington reassessed its Iraq policy. Over the past year, the relationship has grown increasingly dysfunctional from the standpoint of U.S. interests. Iraqi security services have brutally killed hundreds of innocent civilians for peacefully protesting the governments rampant failings. Iran has systematically exploited the Iraqi economy to circumvent U.S. sanctions. Worst of all, Iranian-backed militiassome sanctioned by the United States, most on Baghdads payrollhave conducted several rocket attacks against U.S. troops, diplomats, and private-sector actors, with the Iraqi government holding no one to account.

This situation is not sustainable. Since 2003, year in and year out, the United States has provided Iraq with hundreds of millions of dollars in economic and military assistance, as well as crucial diplomatic backing. That support was premised on the assumption that Iraq would emerge over time as a key partner in preserving stability and security in the Middle East. Instead, the Iraqi government today is headed increasingly in the opposite direction, visiting horrific levels of violence on its own people, while standing aside as its territory, institutions, and economy are subverted by the United States most dangerous foe in the region, Iran.

The upcoming strategic dialogue offers what could be the last chance to reverse this destructive trajectory and salvage a viable long-term U.S. partnership with Iraq. This opportunity should not be squandered.

At the heart of the Trump administrations approach should be the introduction of much stricter conditionality of U.S. support. This is a matter of necessity as much as choice. The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout will put unprecedented strains on the U.S. budget for years to come. Going forward, there will be no tolerance for foreign assistance programs that fail to pay visible dividends for U.S. interestslet alone those which appear to be strengthening enemies such as Iran. The time has come for some hard choices to be put before the Iraqi government. It needs to be brought to the full realization of how much it has to lose if it doesnt begin demonstrating at least some minimal resolve to resist Iranian imperialism and fight for Iraqi sovereignty.

The Trump administration is seeking more than $600 million this fiscal year to help train and equip Iraqi security forces in the ongoing fight against the remnants of the Islamic State. Thats on top of the critical contributions that the U.S. military provides to Iraqi counterterrorism operations in terms of logistics, intelligence, and combat air power. The administration is also requesting more than $120 million to support the Iraqi economy and for other programs, including land mine removal. In addition, the United States has long served as Iraqs key advocate in gaining access to billions of dollars of economic assistance from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. Perhaps most important, however, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York maintains a dollar account for Iraqi foreign reserves and annually ships the country billions of dollars worth of $100 bills to keep its cash-based economy afloat and functioning.

Needless to say, much of this assistance would be irreplaceable. Iran is certainly in no position to supply it. Absent U.S. support, Iraqs economic and security situation, already dire, would slide ever closer to disaster. Especially in the context of the current collapse in world oil prices (the source of 90 percent of Iraqs government revenues), the last thing Iraq can afford to lose is the political, economic, and military backing of its most powerful international benefactor.

That constitutes significant leverage for the U.S. going into the June discussionsif its prepared to use it. That leverage would be even higher if Washington let Baghdad know that its growing acquiescence to Iranian hegemony could increasingly put Iraq in the crosshairs of more punitive U.S. measuresfrom travel bans and asset freezes against senior political leaders to targeted strikes against sanctioned militia commanders. Even restrictions on Iraqs ability to sell oil, similar to the sanctions against Iran, could be credibly put on the table, especially at a moment when global markets are massively oversupplied by as much as 20 million barrels of oil per day.

To further bolster the U.S. bargaining position, a serious contingency plan should also be developed to consolidate all U.S. forces in Iraq to the relative safety of the countrys semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. Unlike the Iraqi political elite, the Kurdish government and security forces are universally supportive of the United States military presence and have gone out of their way to combat threats to U.S. troops and diplomats they host. From a secure foothold in a pro-U.S. Kurdistan, the United States would still be able to conduct essential counterterrorism missions against the Islamic State, including in Syria, but without the severe force protection concerns that currently constrain its operations elsewhere in Iraq. Having significantly reduced the vulnerability of its troops, the United States would arguably also have greater flexibility to take action, as needed, against the continued threat posed by Iran and its militia proxies.

In exchange for its continued support, the United States should keep its demands of the Iraqi government limited and realistic. No matter how much pressure Washington might apply, Iraq will not go to war with Iran. Nor will it act to eradicate militias overnight. But the administration can legitimately insist that the Iraqi government start taking meaningful, but realistic steps that, first and foremost, stand up for Iraqs sovereignty, while simultaneously addressing several core U.S. concerns.

Politically, the violent repression of peaceful protests should end. Elements of the security services and militias responsible for the worst atrocities must be held to account through a credible process of investigation, prosecution, and punishment. A serious national dialogue with the protest movement should be established.

Economically, the government needs to partner with the United States to choke off Irans most egregious sanctions-busting schemes in Iraq, particularly the export of Iranian oil and Irans access to U.S. dollars via Iraqactivities that put Iraqs own economy at serious risk of U.S. secondary sanctions.

Militarily, the United States needs to see evidence that the Iraqi government is making a concerted effort to end the attacks against U.S. military and diplomatic personneleven if it doesnt end them completely. That not only means unequivocally condemning them as unlawful, but assertively deploying Iraqs intelligence and security services to deter, disrupt, and punish attacks, including by cutting off government salaries to militia members. While the United States will never forgo its right to act unilaterally to defend its personnel, its also true that the more Iraq does, the less U.S. forces will need to do on their own.

The resource demands on the United States during and after the coronavirus pandemic will be staggering. Maintaining support for Iraq would be an uphill battle in the best of circumstances. But it will be an impossible mission in an environment where the Iraqi government increasingly appears more invested in being an Iranian satrapy than a U.S. partner. Time is rapidly running out for the Iraqi government to alter that perception by demonstrating that its at least as committed to defending Iraqs sovereignty as the United States has been for the past 17 years.

Thats the stark reality that the Trump administration needs to drive home to Iraqi leaders in the upcoming strategic dialogue. For better or worse, this difficult, tortured, but important relationship is now almost certainly hurtling toward a fateful inflection point. While the stakes are no doubt important for U.S. interests, they could well be existential for Iraq. The government in Baghdad needs to be disabused of any illusions to the contrary.

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US-Iraqi Relationship Is Coming to a Headand That's a Good Thing - Foreign Policy

MAY 5, 2020 Updated 9 hours ago

Dr Caroline Miller is a former planning practitioner and now Associate Professor in the Resource & Environmental Planning Programme at Massey University.

Economic Recovery

Fast-tracking major projects under Muldoon didn't work out well for the economy and this Government needs to learn the lessons of history, writes Dr Caroline Miller

As a mature former planner and researcher on the history of planning in New Zealand,the announcement by the Economic Development Minister of new and accelerated Resource Management Act processesraises some immediate questions.

I'm old enough to remember the National Development Act (NDA) which was brought in to facilitate economic growth in a period of economic stagnation, albeit not as bad as our present situation. The NDA was used to consent the Muldoon Governments Think Big Projects, by offering an accelerated and truncated planning processes for selected projects. Some Think Big Projects such as the electrification of the main trunk rail line were worthybut others were less successful in producing the much-vaunted growth in jobs. That demonstrates the potential pitfalls of picking winners in an attempt to shore up an economy.

It was the failure of this economic strategy which plunged New Zealand into the neo-liberalreforms and restructuring of the Rogernomics period, reforms that inevitably destroyed more jobs than Think Big ever created. Rogernomics also, almost bizarrely, created the RMA to address the planning and consenting issues the NDA was designed to overcome. Given the legion of RMA critics and its almost constant amendment that was another less than successful project.

So, what can we learn from this history to help us decide on the likely success of these new proposals? Well, first, it is clear we are very poor at predicting the future with any accuracy. While many of the shovel ready projects may yield environmental and community benefits, many, particularly roading projects, will just cement in old thinking and old approaches.

Perhaps the issue is summed up in the use of shovel ready to describe the projects. Surely a 19th Century metaphor which is unsuited to a 21st Century New Zealand. Logically we would be better focused on projects addressing the impacts of climate change. Building more roads to address traffic congestion seems an attractive solution but does little to address our carbon emission from transport.

Matching new work opportunities to where those who are seeking work are located may be more challenging than it might first appear. I have some difficult in seeing how displaced workers from the tourism and service sectors can be transferred seamlessly to these new projects given the inevitable skills disjuncture.

Equally, enthusiasm for these reforms as a solution to the RMA seems to involve several leaps of faith. We do not know who will be part of the elite expert panel. Will panelists bedrawn only from experts who have been part of the RMA decision-making processes through the commissioner system? Few local authorities rely exclusively on councillors as RMA decision makers, so if the critics are right, then the commissioners/potential panelists are already part of the RMAs problems. If delays stem from the level of information required, then surely that will remain unchanged if the projects are to be speedily assessed? A comprehensive knowledge of a project is even more essential in such a decision making process.

The most sustained criticism of the RMA comes from its consultation and submission provisions. Those participating are usually portrayed as vexatious or displaying NIMBYist tendencies in trying to delay worthy projects. The effective removal of these voices leaves the expert panel with the challenging role of not only assessing the impact of the proposal on the natural and physical environment but also determining community impact. Most submissions come from affected residents, residents who have to live the rest of their liveswith the changes brought about by the proposal.

We are also being invited to believethe environment itself will be safeguarded in this process. The environment is always the silent party in any hearing and depends on the community and those assessing any proposal to have its voice heard. There has been the suggestion that environmental organisations will be allowed to submit, presumably to provide that environmental voice. Who will be selected remains a very important issue. For instance the Environmental Defence Society, on the surface a broadly based environmental organisation, has an immediate conflict of interest given the advice on RMA reform that it has been contracted to supply to the Ministry for the Environment.Equally, is one environmental organisation able to provide useful advice on all issues or is there room for regionally based groups?

One of the central features of New Zealands planning system has been an equitable and open process. Given the minister has said there will be a high level of certainty that the resource consent will be granted, there seems real doubtthis will be equitable. Rather, it suggests it will be a process tipped in favour of the development, subject only to a speedy and very basic assessment process. That could encourage development proponents to see it as the proverbial rubber-stamping process, rather than a way of improving their proposal. Submitters' views can and do improve proposals, just as a planners and other experts assessment may highlight areas where the predicted outcomes are unlikely or where adverse effects have been overlooked.

Having the expert panel as effective judge and jury with limited appeals only on matters of law further cements in place the legalisation of the planning system, a hallmark of the RMA. Id suggest it is this emphasis on legal issues that has help to ramp-up the cost associated with the RMA. When I started work as a planner in the early 1980s, planning(later RMA) lawyers, were a rarity and only sighted when an issue got to appeal. Now they are an integral part of the process from first lodgement to final appeal, and yet we still have complaints about RMA outcomes. This perhaps signals a time to stop demonising planners as the central problem with the RMA and instead start to look in more detail at the monolith that is now the RMA system. If we cannot identify all the causes of the problem then we are unlikely to find any useful solutions.

The questions are never-ending and we are in the early stages of developing this fast track legislation. All I am suggesting is that before we pick winners, something which has never been successful in the past, we learn a little from history. Most importantly we confront the contradiction at the heart of the RMA how to create a speedy responsive development orientated consent system which also achieves environmentally focused sustainable management of natural and physical resources. If that conundrum is solved, then we may really be onto an RMA winner.

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Back to the future on national development - Newsroom

But to change the paradigm, to reset the system, we would have to give up too many things. Even if now, physically and psychologically damaged by the effects of the pandemic, we declare that we are willing to do so, as soon as normality returns our beloved capitalism of consumption, leisure, and perpetual mobility will return. And so will inequality. And then, anxious to "reincorporate", to "reopen", we will have forgotten our promises and vows, made in a moment of weakness when we were forced to reflect, because we were afraid of dying.

Changing the paradigm would mean, among other things, stopping the growth rate, so destructive for the climate and the biosphere, and entering a degrowth process, as many sociologists and economists already claim. This would mean changing the industrial model and minimizing the consumption of the unnecessary, of the dispensable, and ending the abuses of the financial economy, starting with tax havens. And at the same time, it would mean ending the tremendous inequalities, not only raising the standard of those who have nothing, but significantly reducing the standard of those who have a lot.

Since the evidence of the catastrophic scale of climate change has become undeniable, some timid model transition programmes have been launched, with the intention of progressively abandoning greenhouse gas emissions and moving towards non-resource-based growth, such as the European Green Deal.

But up until the beginning of March, billions of vehicles with combustion engines were still on the road. Tens of thousands of planes were still flying around the planet. In 2019, 90.3 million new cars were sold worldwide, even though it was 4% less than in 2018, at 94.4 million. On the morning of November 20, 2019, for example, there were 11,500 planes flying simultaneously around the world. What is the point of having an average of 154 daily flights between Sydney and Melbourne, according to 2017 data? And what is the logic behind the fact that 83.7 million tourists arrived in Spain in 2019, more than 80% of them on board aircraft? Aren't the 65.7 million tourists who visited New York in 2018 far too many? And what about the dozens of new airports, the countless kilometres of motorways, the billions of animals slaughtered, the endless hectares of forest deforested?

Although these figures should cause vertigo, they are generally assumed to be "normal", and it is to this "normality" that we aspire to return, the sooner the better.

Because: who, among the rich and the middle classes, is going to suddenly give up flying in airplanes, their second homes, their swimming pools, their cruise ships? And who, among the underprivileged, is going to stop dreaming of achieving one day, for himself or for his family, some of these privileges that the system promises, even though it almost never fulfils them?

Our system is full of contradictions, but Schumpeter has already said that the nature of capitalism is its creative destruction. Perhaps many will have taken advantage of the quarantine to ask themselves profound questions, although I don't think that the Covid-19 is strong enough to be a true game changer. More than one person will have to make a proposal for amendments, and I hope that this will have some influence on their future political behaviour. For example, in our democracies, where we will see whether those who are seriously committed to a change of model will win, or the nationalists and populists who are committed to deepening what we have, trusting in God and borders, will eventualluy win, and that they really do not care about the others .

What is almost certain is that, as soon as it leaves us, as many of us as possible will go back to normal, back to the beach. After all, we are members of an orchestra that will continue to play while the ship is sinking. But after the coronavirus catastrophe, one can honestly ask: will the new normality be business as usual or an opportunity to start changing, seriously, the paradigm of our civilization?

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After the pandemic, will we return to business as usual? - Open Democracy

How do allies plan for war when they have different visions of how or with whom it might be fought? Strategic success is as much about adaptability as it is about plans. From Clausewitz to Yogi Berra, strategists know that prediction is a losing game, and that fog and friction will arise in unexpected ways. Alliances in a fog of peace have an added challenge: Their adaptations to external developments must themselves be adapted to the domestic politics of each of their members.

In a fog of peace, domestic political economy considerations are decisive. In the context of NATO and the European Union, strategic and operational planning, capabilities development, threat assessments, and burden-sharing initiatives will all be subordinate to domestic and European Union-level political economy factors, like fiscal, industrial, and labor policy. Policy-makers seeking to improve transatlantic burden-sharing and improve the set of capabilities available for conflict should therefore align such domestic and European Union-level factors with their desired defense outcomes. In short, they should focus on constraints in policy areas that they can affect, and that shape defense investment choices. These areas include mitigating the effects of E.U. fiscal rules and austerity on defense spending, rationalizing transatlantic markets for defense articles, and addressing the effects of labor markets on defense capabilities.

Increasing Uncertainty

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic and its strategic consequences, uncertainty was becoming the primary characteristic of the international system. While great-power rivalry appears to be the order of the day, there is no consensus on what such rivalry means for existing security institutions. Questions abound, from whether or how to preserve or reform these institutions to how regional security arrangements might be realigned. This strain is apparent in the transatlantic community from Brexit for the European Union to brain-death for NATO, and COVID-19 for both. The only certainty is uncertainty. In a lengthier piece, we identified quantitative and qualitative evidence of increasing uncertainty: an unmistakable trend toward greater diversity in allies perceptions of threats. Figure 1 visualizes that trend.

Figure 1: Standard Deviation in Threat Perceptions as Expressed in National Security Strategies, NATO and E.U. Members

Source: Graphic by Jordan Becker.

Order, Alliances, and Strategic Planning

How do states plan for war in such a strategic environment? Strategic planning is often neither threat based nor capabilities based, but resource-based, and rightly grounded in politics. While great powers may devise strategies based on structural factors like the distribution of relative power in such environments, national and regional political economies weigh heavily in shaping strategy and resource allocation, particularly among the small and mid-sized powers that comprise the system of alliances on which Americas strategic approach centers.

Defense planning, or the practice of military strategy in grand strategy, converts political will and community resources into defense capabilities, which planners think will bring strategic effects. Even assuming that states are rational, unitary actors, such planning lacks focus in the absence of a clearly identified and singular rival or threat. NATO is a multinational security community whose membership spans three continents and whose members adjoin not just the Atlantic Ocean, but also the Arctic and Pacific Oceans, the Baltic, Black, and Mediterranean Seas, as well as Russia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. A multiplicity of interests whether conceived through the logic of consequences or that of appropriateness should therefore be considered a driving feature of the network of alliances in Americas security portfolio.

How, then, does the transatlantic security community prepare for war in these conditions? With the return of great-power rivalry, how do the United States and its allies seek to enhance deterrence and defense postures in multiple regions? Planning, resourcing, and developing the forces that strategists think will have the strategic effects needed to address these challenges is a long-term process, requiring institutionalized systems.

The multilateral structures of the European Union, and particularly of NATO, represent the most developed form of such systems. How does this institutionalization function? First NATO, and more recently the European Union, have sought to institutionalize defense planning with routinized processes. Updated and outlined for the public in 2009, NATOs Defence Planning Process provides a framework within which national and Alliance defence planning activities can be harmonised to enable Allies to provide the required forces and capabilities in the most effective way. While the European Union does not have a single process analogous to NATOs, its Coordinated Annual Review on Defence aims to foster capability development addressing shortfalls, deepen defence cooperation and ensure more optimal use, including coherence, of defence spending plans, and its Capability Development Plan defines future capability needs from the short to longer term.

Edward Luttwak explains the necessity of such processes: the development and production of sophisticated modern weapons takes years, requiring states to devise peacetime force development strategies that economically build forces for wars they can only anticipate. Figure 2 visualizes the challenge of devising such force development strategies in the multilateral security communities that anchor the current American-led order. National strategies only partially overlap with collective strategies, and processes like the NATO Defense Planning Process and the E.U.s Coordinated Annual Review on Defense do not affect the entirety of members national strategies strategy ultimately remains a sovereign matter for nations.

Figure 2: Strategy in a Security Community

Source: Graphic by Jordan Becker.

Nonetheless, NATOs Defense Planning Process at least has a reasonable record of influencing allies defense planning choices. Allies accepted and agreed on, for example, all new capability targets at their June 2017 defense ministerial meeting. In fact, the Defense Planning Process is unique in consensus-based NATO in that allies can override a veto, imposing a capability target on a nation over its objection if all other nations agree that it should accept the target a system known as consensus minus one.

The Limits of Institutions

Yet there inevitably are areas of national strategy that a process alone cannot shape. We maintain that national strategic cultures, national political economies, and E.U. macroeconomic and fiscal policy decisively influence how countries allocate resources to defense before NATO and E.U. planning processes take place. Specifically, the more Atlanticist (a preference for a transatlantic approach to European security, in which the United States role is central) a countrys national security strategy was, the more it contributed to shared operational priorities during NATOs out of area period (from 2000 to 2012). As European states experience increased unemployment, they slightly decrease top-line defense spending in response to unemployment, while shifting much more substantial amounts within defense budgets out of equipment and into personnel. E.U. members respond similarly to supranational (E.U.) fiscal constraints agreed to by heads of state and government as part of the Maastricht Treaty on European Union, and monitored (enforced) by the European Commission.

Processes cannot address these tough choices, which amount to rival claims on strategic resources, but politico-strategic dialogue may. For example, when NATO allies agreed to a pledge on defense investment at their 2014 Wales Summit, their heads of state and government gave broad but clear guidance not only to defense ministries to meet[] capability priorities, but also to finance ministries to reverse the trend of declining defense budgets. Two years later, E.U. heads of state and government formally adopted the NATO goals of moving toward spending two percent of GDP on defense and 20 percent of defense spending on equipment modernization. Early indications are that these political agreements are having some effect on resource allocation, as Figure 3 shows. European allies defense spending increased by $87 billion from 2014 to 2018. That this would occur in spite of disagreements regarding threats, economic fragmentation within Europe and the broader transatlantic community, and fiscal austerity in the European Union, points to the importance of cultural factors like Atlanticism. However, as Figure 3 also shows, increases may be stalling a transatlantic divide may harm burden-sharing and, perhaps paradoxically, weaken Europe as a strategic actor.

Figure 3: Annual Real Change in Defense Spending, NATO Europe and Canada

Source: NATO, Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2013-2019), 2020.

NATO and European Union agreement on exigent defense investment guidelines, as well as the downstream effects on coordinated capability development, point toward other opportunities for the two organizations to cooperate strategically. This is especially true given the tight interconnection between the economic strength of the transatlantic community and its military strength. For example, NATO and the European Union could build on current cooperation proposals to include the grand strategic area of resource allocation, ensuring that NATO and E.U. defense spending goals are not in competition with E.U. fiscal rules for scarce resources. Italys 2015 defense White Paper, for example, suggests the possibility that some defense spending could be excluded from the thresholds of the Stability and Growth Pact.

Trouble Behind, Trouble Ahead

At some level, all states must prepare for war. Robert Osgood called alliances latent war communities they are designed for that purpose. Indeed, Bear Braumoellers recent work extends Charles Tillys insight that war made the state and the state made war to international orders, which he argues prevent war among their members but are dangerous to non-members. Processes like those that NATO and the European Union have developed during the last eight decades of relative calm and prosperity are central to the transatlantic communitys ability to prepare for, and perhaps forestall, future wars. They are the best tools its members have to convert political will into capabilities that they believe will have strategic effects, like deterring adversaries or, if necessary, defending national territory and shared interests.

Processes are, however, no substitute for grand strategic vision. Such vision animated the creation of both NATO and the European Union. There is now a strong case for a bolder vision of transatlantic cooperation in defense planning and grand strategy to keep the fog of peace from turning into the fog of war.

What might such a vision look like? Some scholars have proposed to address the fog of peace by rediscovering geography to regionalize NATO defense planning, enabling allies to focus on capabilities that are most directly relevant to their own strategic priorities. Others have argued that it is time for Europe to seek and achieve true strategic autonomy, either by Europeanizing NATO (whereby the United States would reduce its footprint in the alliance and concentrate on its strategic challenges elsewhere), or by subsuming NATO into a broader European political-security framework. Even the possibility of extending Frances nuclear deterrent to its European allies has been raised, first by French scholars discussing nuclear solidarity, and then by President Emmanuel Macron, who invited European partners to be associated with the exercises of French deterrence forces in the interest of a true strategic culture among Europeans. Macron further clarified his intent in an interview with Wolfgang Ischinger at the 2020 Munich Security Conference, pointing to an unprecedented dialogue on nuclear deterrence among Europeans.

Challenges abound. First, transatlantic discord creates challenges for European Atlanticists, making it more difficult to align national strategies, and may even incentivize countries to curb defense spending to appeal to domestic electorates that bristle at external pressure. Second, the combination of economic recession and fiscal austerity that plagued Europe during the 2008 crisis appears likely to return in a more virulent form, which is almost certain to dampen defense investment.

Taking Europes destiny in its own hands is easier said than done. Years of low defense investment, the complicating effects of Brexit, the rise of populist politics across Europe, and uncertainties about Turkey, among other issues, cloud prospects for greater European defense autonomy. While retaining the transatlantic bond, in an era of great-power competition when conflict would almost certainly not be confined to one operational theater, it may be wise to encourage allies to concentrate on those tasks for which they are most geographically suited. For example, Baltic Sea states could focus on defending their territory from Russian aggression, while states along the Mediterranean could focus on combatting terrorism and building partner capacity each without fear of being criticized for inadequately supporting allies. Doing so would help link operational and strategic planning to threat assessments, while also helping to blunt conflict among allies about defining the array of threats, risks, and challenges that characterize the emerging security environment. It would enable the transatlantic security community to incentivize and leverage the national defense planning efforts of its members. Specializing like this would enable institutional work to focus on harmonizing, which encourages burden-sharing, as opposed to dominating, which incentivizes free-riding. But such specialization demands trust, which is currently in short supply in the transatlantic community and beyond.

Jordan Beckerwas Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the Institute for European Studies at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel during this research. He is currently the U.S. Liaison to the French Joint Staff, and an associate researcher at the Institut de Recherche Stratgique de lEcole Militaire (IRSEM) and Sciences Pos Center for International Studies (CERI). He completed his PhD at Kings College London in 2017, and he is a lieutenant colonel in the United States Army. He previously served as defense policy adviser to the U.S. Ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and as Military Assistant and Speechwriter to the Chairman of the NATO Military Committee (International Military Staff). He is solely responsible for his research, which does not reflect any official U.S. government position.

Robert Bell is CEO of National Security Council (NSC), a Limited Liability Corporation consulting firm, and Distinguished Professor of Practice at the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech. He is a PhD candidate in International Relations at the Fletcher School at TuftsUniversity. He previously served as Senior Civilian Representative of the Secretary of Defense inEurope and the Defense Adviser to the U.S. Ambassador to the North Atlantic TreatyOrganization, as well as Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investment on NATOsInternational Staff. From 1993 to 1999, he was President Bill Clintons NSC Senior Director forDefense Policy and Arms Control.

Image: NATO

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Preparing for War in the Fog of Peace: The Transatlantic Case - War on the Rocks

Considering an inclusive recovery in New York City (photo: William Alatriste/City Council)

As the COVID-19 public health and economic crises continue, so does the conversation about recovery. This past week, the Center for an Urban Future (CUF), a nonprofit think tank focused on economic opportunity and equitable growth, hosted a digital discussion, Ensuring an Inclusive Economic Recovery in NYC, featuring several public policy experts.

Jonathon Bowles, the executive director of CUF, opened the discussion saying the immediate priorities are clear: keep people safe, get people back to work, and help our small businesses survive. He then posed the question to the panelists to kick start the conversation, asking if there is an opportunity in this crisis to build a more inclusive economy.

The panelists were Maria Torres-Springer, Vice President for US programs at the Ford Foundation and formerly Commissioner of three different New York City government agencies for housing, economic development, and small businesses; Maya Wiley, professor at the New School and former counsel to Mayor Bill de Blasio; Harry Holzer of the Brookings Institution and Georgetown University; David Jones, President and CEO of the Community Service Society of New York; and Joey Ortiz, Jr., executive director of the New York City Employment and Training Coalition.

One of the broad themes in the panelists responses was that this situation offers an opportunity to do things differently and fundamentally change how New York thinks about economic recovery. On tangible ways to spur economic growth and improve equitable access for all New Yorkers going forward, two focus areas emerged: the roles of education and job training.

Torres-Springer said New Yorkers must first identify and be real about who has suffered the most and the fact that the community-level impacts of a disaster, like food insecurity, afflict marginalized populations on a daily basis.

She added that everyone must resist the temptation to make false choices. False choices between equity and growth, between public health and individual civil liberties, between fiscal prudence and strengthening, for instance, the not-for-profit sector, and instead take this opportunity and turn this crisis into a time when we can identify the types of strategies that strike a better balance and bend towards better outcomes.

Panelists agreed that economic growth should not be considered in a siloed way, but must be embedded into a conversation that encompasses public transportation, affordable housing, food security, workforce development, and how each impacts the economy. The pandemic disproportionately affects black and Hispanic communities and low-wage workers, Torres-Springer said. Holzer agreed, and said, first we learn, do no harm. But there is a lot of harm out there, and Maria is right, it falls, and especially in New York City, very heavily on people of color, disadvantaged workers, low-wage workers.

Jones, who is also on the MTA Board that oversees the citys massive public transit system, pointed out that black and Hispanic populations are suffering a higher COVID-19 death rate and that the hospitals serving communities of color in the city lack resources.

The pandemic has really exposed entrenched inequalities but it has laid bare the interdependence and interconnectedness, Torres-Springer said. And really shown us we are only as safe as the least protected among us.

To do recovery the right way, Ortiz said the city needs to bring people in from the most impacted communities, and ensure that they are part of the planning.

I think what often happens in any of these discussions is we bring incredible people together to talk about the challenges without the perspective of who may be living it on a day-to-day basis, he said. Its important for us to be empathetic, its important for us to understand and care very deeply about the communities we serve, but we need to invite them into this discussion in a very active way.

Jones described the interruption of education, especially for those who were only marginally involved in the system an unmitigated disaster, adding that we already knew we were having trouble in terms of retaining kids of color from poor communities in K-12, but weve done reports that show that the community college system in the State of New York cant be considered a great provider of job skills yet, and the assumptions that the community college system would be a feeder to the four-year system doesn't happen in New York.

Wiley agreed, pointing to how essential educational opportunity is for people of color and low-income communities and saying that, historically, city investment has been lacking. Limited funding for education, along with public transportation, technology, and job training -- which impact an individuals ability to access education -- are historic failures we keep reinforcing, Wiley said.

Its a combination of multiple pieces here, Ortiz said. The pieces that were raised before, in terms of K-12, and certainly the higher education CUNY system is essential here, but I think there is also meeting folks in between, the workforce development system, and smaller community-based organizations have done an incredible job of supporting people here in New York City.

Jones likened the CUNY system to apartheid, saying New York has an overwhelming number of black and Latino students concentrated in two-year schools. Its resource allocation, were not really adequately resourcing our community college system. I do think its a potential springboard. But we have to be serious, he said. We have to think more holistically and make community college perhaps a centrepiece.

Holzer agreed that community colleges are a key piece. I do think there is lots of good training at the community college level that does lead to good-paying jobs, some of them involve associates degrees, especially associates in science, he said. Some of them are good certificate programs and people have a greater likelihood of completing, but again its hard to build up capacity in these programs without money.

Education is directly related to access to the job market, of course, and over the last decade, there was huge growth in both low-wage industries and jobs for college educated individuals. Holzer said that jobs that used to only require a high school diploma now often require some kind of post-secondary education, and employers have a harder time filling certain gaps. To address this problem and increase access to the labor market, all the panelists agreed there are two main strategies: building the skill-building sector, and working with employers to create better quality jobs that can lead to a career.

Wiley cited three legs of a stool, with the need for a stronger education pipeline, better quality jobs, and especially more affordable housing, saying unless were addressing the affordability problem then we are not going to be doing enough just to be doing jobs or just to be doing education, we need the three legs of that stool.

It requires a vision that says a New York that we all want to live in, a diverse New York that has all of us in it. We can become San Francisco and watch people of color get pushed out and still be unaffordable for a white middle class, that doesn't help any of us, Wiley said.

The citys plan for addressing recovery is also dependent on the level of funding support that might be offered from the federal government. The point of this particular crisis is, is the federal government going to step in and provide more resources or not those two scenarios create different opportunities, Wiley said.

New York State and City face many billions in lower-than-expected tax revenue given the economic shutdown and recession brought on by the coronavirus outbreak, and are seeking bailouts from the federal level.

The services they end up cutting back on most severely are those that are trying to help those at the bottom who dont have political clout, who arent considered economically viable, Jones said of likely city budget cuts, some of which the mayor has already outlined for the next fiscal year, which begins July 1. And if we persist in that kind of behavior we are going to have the inequality system that we have now just explode.

One program that the mayor has put on the chopping block is the Summer Youth Employment Program (SYEP), which seeks to connect NYC youth between the ages of 14 and 24 with career exploration opportunities and paid work experience each summer, according to the SYEP website.

Summer youth is a good example of when something is hard, lets just scrap it rather than say lets try to find the best possible plan to keep our young people safe, Ortiz argued. This was an incredible opportunity for them to develop the technological infrastructure that was required to learning or investing in the system from a distance. And now we have a situation where, during a health crisis, 100,000 young people wont have anything to do. These types of moments are when we need to take our big ideas and apply them so we can move forward in a really positive way.

We cant have young people who are already marginally connected to the economy with no summer plan, no school, Jones said. You cant do that. You can reconfigure it to have social distancing but weve got to get young people in these communities engaged and some income coming in for them and their family and some hope they can participate in the economy going forward.

Holzer added that a program like SYEP has strong evidence it actually helps students graduate from high school, it reduces engagement in crime, it reduces incarceration, violence and homicides and things of that nature, as an example. Its such a short-term mistake to not fund those types of things.

Torres-Springer pointed out that how New York recovers is uncertain because the city is still very much in the midst of the crisis. She added that there are a number of policies that are emergency measures, such as direct cash and paid sick leave, that months ago would have been unthinkable, but a key question is the transition from the short-term triage to the long-term policies.

We need to make sure peoples lives are secure and people have good wages, have a dignified and rising standards of living, Torres-Springer said. We cant fool ourselves that this is the job only of local and state policy-makers. We cannot let Washington walk away from their obligations.

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Keys to 'Inclusive Economic Recovery' in New York City Include Investments in CUNY and Workforce Development, Experts Say - Gotham Gazette