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A mob of former President Donald Trump supporters breached the U.S Capitol security on Jan. 6. Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

A mob of former President Donald Trump supporters breached the U.S Capitol security on Jan. 6.

The mob that attacked the U.S. Capitol may have been a fringe group of extremists, but politically motivated violence has the support of a significant share of the U.S. public, according to a new survey by the American Enterprise Institute.

The survey found that nearly three in 10 Americans, including 39% of Republicans, agreed that "if elected leaders will not protect America, the people must do it themselves, even if it requires violent actions."

That result was "a really dramatic finding," says Daniel Cox, director of the AEI Survey Center on American Life. "I think any time you have a significant number of the public saying use of force can be justified in our political system, that's pretty scary."

The survey found stark divisions between Republicans and Democrats on the 2020 presidential election, with two out of three Republicans saying President Biden was not legitimately elected, while 98% of Democrats and 73% of independents acknowledged Biden's victory.

The level of distrust among Republicans evident in the survey was such that about 8 in 10 said the current political system is "stacked against conservatives and people with traditional values." A majority agreed with the statement: "The traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it."

The survey found that to be a minority sentiment two out of three Americans overall rejected the use of violence in pursuit of political ends and Cox emphasized that the finding reflected "attitudes and beliefs" rather than a disposition to do something.

"If I believe something, I may act on it, and I may not," Cox says. "We shouldn't run out and say, 'Oh, my goodness, 40% of Republicans are going to attack the Capitol.' But under the right circumstances, if you have this worldview, then you are more inclined to act in a certain way if you are presented with that option."

The AEI survey found that partisan divisions were also evident along religious lines. About 3 in 5 white evangelicals told the pollsters that Biden was not legitimately elected, that it was not accurate to say former President Donald Trump encouraged the attack on the Capitol, and that a Biden presidency has them feeling disappointed, angry or frightened.

On all those questions, Cox says, white evangelicals are "politically quite distinct." Majorities of white mainline Protestants, Black Protestants, Catholics, followers of non-Christian religions and the religiously unaffiliated all viewed Biden's victory as legitimate.

The AEI survey found that white evangelicals were especially prone to subscribe to the QAnon movement's conspiracy theories. Twenty-seven percent said it was "mostly" or "completely" accurate to say Trump "has been secretly fighting a group of child sex traffickers that include prominent Democrats and Hollywood elites." That share was higher than for any other faith group and more than double the support for QAnon beliefs evident among Black Protestants, Hispanic Catholics and non-Christians.

"As with a lot of questions in the survey, white evangelicals stand out in terms of their belief in conspiracy theories and the idea that violence can be necessary," Cox says. "They're far more likely to embrace all these different conspiracies."

The survey also found "considerable cleavages" among Americans with respect to pride in their national identity. About 6 in 10 said they are proud to be an American, but the finding varied along generational and race lines, with significantly lower levels of national pride among younger and nonwhite people.

The AEI report was based on a survey of 2,016 U.S. adults conducted between Jan. 21 and Jan. 30.

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A 'Scary' Survey Finding: 4 In 10 Republicans Say Political Violence May Be Necessary - NPR

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A group of former Republican officials considering a new center-right political party to counter former President Donald Trumps influence would face steep challenges in shaking up a U.S. political system that has favored two-party rule throughout its history.

Rotunda of the U.S. Capitol is seen behind a statue of former President George Washington, before the second impeachment trial for former President Donald Trump, at the Capitol in Washington, U.S., February 9, 2021. REUTERS/Al Drago

Reuters exclusively reported on Wednesday that more than 120 Republicans - including former elected officials, along with former administrators under Trump and former presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush - met virtually on Feb. 5 to discuss forming a third party or a new center-right faction.

Two of the most prominent anti-Trump Republicans in Congress - Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois - rejected the idea of a breakaway party in statements to Reuters on Thursday. Other Republican critics of Trump expressed similar skepticism - arguing a third party would accomplish little beyond splitting the votes of conservatives and helping Democrats get elected.

The resistance to a third party among some of Trumps toughest Republican critics underscores the extreme difficulty of such a political revolt. Such an effort would require walking away from the Republican Partys massive political infrastructure - staff, money, connections and data on donors and voters - that would take years if not decades to build from scratch.

An upstart party would also have little chance of succeeding without a charismatic leader who could capture the loyalties of millions of disaffected voters, said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist who was a senior advisor to the Republican primary campaign of Marco Rubio, a Senator from Florida, in 2016.

If somebody was going to start a third party that was going to gain some traction, it would be Trump and not his opponents, said Conant.

Kinzinger joined the Feb. 5 video conference of the anti-Trump group and spoke for about five minutes, a spokeswoman told Reuters. But the congressman wants to reform the party from within, she said. He has recently formed a new political action committee to support Republican primary challengers running against pro-Trump House Republicans such as Matt Gaetz, of Florida, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, of Georgia.

A spokesman for Cheney told Reuters in a statement that she opposes any effort to split the party, saying it would only make it easier for Democrats to enact policies that conservatives oppose.

Both Cheney and Kinzinger were among just 10 House Republicans, a small minority, who voted to impeach Trump on a charge of inciting the Jan. 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol.

A more likely outcome of an anti-Trump movement would be for centrist Republicans to try to purge Trumpism from within its own ranks, said David Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Florida who recently quit the party in protest of Trump and declared himself an independent.

A party of center-right conservatives could never create a broad enough coalition to win national elections, Jolly said. And Trump has effectively undercut his more moderate opponents among Republican voters, he said, by ridiculing them as Never Trumpers and RINOs (Republicans in Name Only).

Its just impossible to escape the never Trump label, he said.

Others argue it would be much harder to wrest power over the Republican Party from Trump.

Lets not kid ourselves; we are not going to change this party, said Jim Glassman, a former undersecretary of state under George W. Bush.

Glassman gave a five-minute presentation on the Feb. 5 call advocating for a new party. Any effort to reclaim the party would be a soul-deadening slog, he told participants.

He told Reuters on Thursday that he sees the Republican Party as now thoroughly in thrall to Trump - and beyond repair.

I thought, if Trump lost by 7 million votes, there may have been a chance to do that, he said in an interview. But events since the election have made clear thats not going to happen.

Asked on Wednesday about the discussions for a third party, Jason Miller, a Trump spokesman, said: These losers left the Republican Party when they voted for Joe Biden.

Glassman believes there are enough Republican donors who are disgusted with Trump and willing to finance a new party. He believes a new conservative party could also attract maybe one fifth of Republican voters who disapprove of Trump, along with some independents and Democrats. Further, he said, running third-party candidates in House and Senate races would force the Trumpist candidates to tack to the center in general elections and temper the shrill partisanship of those races.

Many people at the Feb. 5 virtual gathering agreed with Glassman. In a poll of participants, about 40% of those in attendance supported creating an entirely new party, according to one source with direct knowledge of the discussions. About 20% favored creating a faction within the party, and an equal number supported creating a faction outside the party, though it remained unclear exactly how such an independent faction would operate.

While they disagreed on strategy, participants in the meeting said, attendees united on the need to organize and advocate for a return to principled conservatism that prizes the rule of law and adherence to the Constitution, ideals they believe Trump has violated.

Among the group at the Feb. 5 meeting was Elizabeth Neumann, former deputy chief of staff in the Department of Homeland Security under Trump. Shes enraged at Republican lawmakers continued support for Trump in the wake of his stolen-election claims, which she had repeatedly warned - before the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riots - could lead to violence. Now she wants to politically target the lawmakers who voted, in the hours after the deadly insurrection, to overturn the presidential election result - and shes open to any strategy that might work.

I hear arguments that we should break off and form a new party, or we should stay inside the party. There will come a time when this crystallizes, Neumann told Reuters on Thursday. At the moment, Im more focused on the individual people and holding them accountable.

Historically, third parties have generally failed in U.S. elections, particularly at the presidential level, often serving more as spoilers than true contenders.

Theodore Roosevelt, a charismatic war hero, had served two previous terms as president but lost in 1912 when he ran as a Progressive - or Bull Moose - Party candidate, finishing second, with more votes than the Republican candidate, in a three-way race ultimately won by Democrat Woodrow Wilson. That was the last time any third-party candidate won more votes than either of the two major party presidential candidates.

More recently, the most successful third-party candidate was Texas billionaire Ross Perot, whose self-financed Reform Party campaign in 1992 earned him 19% of the vote in a race won by Democrat Bill Clinton, who unseated incumbent Republican President George H.W. Bush.

In other cases, supporters of losing presidential nominees have blamed third-party candidates for siphoning off voters. In 2016, some backers of Democrat Hillary Clinton were frustrated by Green Party candidate Jill Stein, whose percentage of the vote was greater than Clintons margin of defeat in key states.

Republican Senator Rand Paul, asked about the prospects for a new party, told Reuters: Thatd be a good way to allow the Democrats to always win.

Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn laughed when asked by Reuters about a possible third party.

More power to em, he said.

Cornyn, however, predicted shared opposition to President Bidens agenda will hold Republicans together. He said he hopes life in the Republican Party will return to something more normal in Trumps absence.

Its made us all a little crazy, Cornyn said.

Reporting by Tim Reid, James Oliphant, David Morgan and Joseph Ax; writing by Brian Thevenot; editing by Soyoung Kim and Brian Thevenot

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Prominent anti-Trump Republicans reject third party - Reuters

(Mark Wilson / Getty Images)

In a 1994 episode of The Simpsons, the bumbling patriarch Homer tries to shirk jury duty by wearing trick glasses that make it look like hes wide awake during the trial while hes in fact enjoying a nap. Homer is meant to be an oaf, albeit a sometimes lovable one. But even in his buffoonery, Homer still took his responsibilities as a juror more seriously than many Republican senators, who are being singularly cavalier about the solemn duty of weighing whether to convict an impeached president.

At least Homer Simpson showed up for his jury dutyeven if he didnt stay conscious. But 15 Republican senators failed to be present in either mind or body for substantial parts of the third day of the impeachment, as members of the House of Representatives painstakingly laid out the case that Trump riled up a mob that attacked the Capitol on January 6. Thom Tillis was visible in the GOP cloakroom reading his phone, reported Manu Raju of CNN. Another CNN reporter, Jeremy Herb, noted that Senator Rick Scott had a blank map of Asia on his desk and was writing on it like he was filling in the names of the countries. According to Forbes, Many within the chamber were preoccupied with other activities: Senators Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) were reading papers

Some Republicans werent just disengaged from the proceedings but were trying to help the former president whose guilt they were supposedly to judge. Lindsey Graham, Ted Cruz, and Mike Lee all met with Trumps defense team to discuss legal strategy.

Impeachment is, of course, a political rather than a legal process, so senators have wide leeway for what rules they can set for their own conduct. Still, jurors meeting in private with a defense team is highly unusual. It highlights a core problem: How can political figures who are completely complicit with Trumps actions sit in judgment of him? MORE FROM Jeet Heer

The Republicans who were paying attention did give credit to the Democratic managers for the cogent, forceful, well-documented case they are presenting. Texas Senator John Coryn told reporters, I have to compliment the impeachment managers just in terms of their presentation preparation. I thought it was excellent.

The Democratic managers are going out of their way to present a case that is bipartisan, clearing a path that would allow Republicans to vote for impeachment without feeling they have abandoned their party. In his presentation on Thursday, Representative Ted Lieu noted that former members and long-standing Republicans also made clear that President Trump incited this insurrection and it went against our democracy. Lieu quote Republican governors Spencer Cox, Charlie Baker, Mike DeWine, and Phil Scott. He also quoted many quondam Trump officials such as former secretary of defense James Mattis, former chief of staff John Kelly, and former national security adviser John Bolton. Lieu concluded by drawing attention to all the Republican White House officials who resigned after January 6.

Lieus message was clear: What Trump did was a violation of principles Republicans and Democrats hold in common. This is not a partisan impeachment but one Republicans should be able to participate in with the knowledge that they are condemning acts opposed across the political spectrum.Current Issue

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The clarion call of bipartisan civic-mindedness has had little success in recent decades, nor is it likely to heeded this year. As Susan B. Glasser pointed out in The New Yorker,

A year ago, when Trump faced his first trial, Mitt Romney was the only Senate Republican to vote for his conviction. This time, despite the trial taking place at the actual scene of the crime, Romney was joined by only five other Republicans in voting to allow the trial to proceed. Whether or not those six ultimately vote to convict, the final number of Republicans is sure to be well below the two-thirds majority required for conviction.

We wont know the actual votes until the trial wraps up in a few days, but every indication is that there will be, as Glasser suggests, a handful of Republican votes to convict: possibly four, maybe five, with luck six, in the best possible scenario a few more than six. But still almost certainly well short of needed 17 Republican votes.Related Article

Why have most Republican senators resolutely shut their ears to the case for convicting Trump? Some do so out of ideological conviction. Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley were egging on the insurrection as much as Trump was, so to condemn the former president would be to admit their own guilt.

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But a wider swath of Republican senators are surely motivated by fear. They have good reason to worry about their personal safety and their political future. Trump has shown he can excite the mob and they would be likely victims of future attacks, just as Republican officeholders in Georgia faced death threats after resisting Trumps pressure to alter election results.

In electoral terms, convicting Trump is almost certainly a sure loser for Republicans. As Axios reports, State and county Republican apparatuses throughout the country are punishing those in their own party who want to hold the former president accountable, signaling that Trumps grasp on the GOP remains unfaded.

Defending his opposition to Trumps trial, Senator Josh Hawley said, The Republican Partyif it belongs to anybodyit belongs to the voters, the people who sent us here. Thats who Im accountable to.

These words reflect a profound misunderstanding of democracy. Senators are responsible not just to their voters but to the entire country and to the constitution. Hawley doesnt seem to recognize that hes elected to represent not just those who voted for him but all Missourians. Which means he has to think beyond the dictates of party at least on occasion. There are few more pressing times for abandoning partisanship than during an impeachment.

As Edmund Burke, the founder of modern conservatism, articulated in his classic speech to the electors of Bristol in 1774, the job of the elected official is not just to mirror his constituents but to exercise his ability to debate and reason in pursuit of the common good. As Burke insisted, Your Representative owes you, not his industry only, but his judgement; and he betrays, instead of serving you, if he sacrifices it to your opinion.

Even in the 18th century, when democracy was much more rudimentary, few voters wanted to hear that their elected officials would sometimes have to go against their preferences. Burkes pill is even harder to swallow in our more populist epoch. Still, the fundamental principle is sound: Elected officials are often just mouthpieces for popular grievancesand in normal run-of-the-mill politics, thats fine. But on a few momentous occasions, political leaders have to look beyond their base to the greater interest of the nation.

With the second impeachment of Donald Trump, it looks like almost all congressional Republicans will have failed to live up to their civic duty. This failure of democracy can only be redressed by the more vigorous pursuit of democracy. If the Republicans fail to convict Trump, then Democrats have both the opportunity and the duty to remind voters in future elections that the shame of January 6 belongs not just to Trump but also to his party.

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To Republican Senators, Donald Trump Is Still the Boogeyman - The Nation

In his inaugural address, President Biden described America as in the midst of an uncivil war that pits red against blue, rural versus urban, conservative versus liberal. His invocation of a civil war and the American Civil War was provocative. It was also accurate. There is no formal definition of an uncivil war, but America is increasingly split between members of two political parties that hate each other.

In the same speech, Biden warned of the dangers of a rise in political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism. This too was accurate. Biden was delivering his address exactly two weeks after a group of supporters of then-President Trump, riled up by his false claims about voter fraud, stormed the Capitol to try to overturn the results of a free and fair election, an act of political extremism and domestic terrorism carried out by at least some people who believe in white supremacy.

[Related: Storming The U.S. Capitol Was About Maintaining White Power In America]

Biden didnt explicitly say that the extremism, domestic terrorism and white supremacy is largely coming from one side of the uncivil war. But thats the reality. In Americas uncivil war, both sides may hate the other, but one side conservatives and Republicans is more hostile and aggressive, increasingly willing to engage in anti-democratic and even violent attacks on their perceived enemies.

The Jan. 6 insurrection and the run-up to it is perhaps the clearest illustration that Republicans are being more hostile and anti-democratic than Democrats in this uncivil war. Biden pledged to concede defeat if he lost the presidential election fair and square, while Trump never made such a pledge; many elected officials in the GOP joined Trumps efforts to overturn the election results; and finally, Trump supporters arrived at the Capitol to claim victory by force. But there are numerous other examples of conservatives and Republicans going overboard in their attempts to dominate liberals and Democrats:

We could also compile a long list of anti-democratic and hostile actions taken by Trump himself against Democrats. At the top of that list would be his attempt to coerce the Ukrainian government into announcing it would investigate the Biden family essentially a scheme for Trump to use the power of his office to tilt the upcoming presidential election in his favor.

Its important to be specific here, however. Many of the most aggressive actions against liberals have been taken not by Republican voters but largely by Republican officials, particularly at the state level.

Many Republicans do not accept Democratic governance as a legitimate outcome of elections, said Thomas Zimmer, a history professor at Georgetown University who is writing a book about political divides in America. America is nearing a crisis of democratic legitimacy because one side is trying to erect one-party minority rule.

Gretchen Helmke, a political scientist at the University of Rochester who studies the state of democratic governments around the world, said, There is a marked asymmetry between the two parties, with Republicans more engaged in playing constitutional hardball and taking actions that are still within the letter of the law but [that] may violate the spirit of the law or common-sense ideas about fairness and political equality.

Those types of actions are much harder to find on the Democratic side. There is no campaign by Democratic elected officials to disenfranchise white evangelical Christians, a constituency that overwhelmingly backs GOP candidates, just as Black voters overwhelmingly back Democratic candidates. There was no widespread, systematic attempt by Democratic officials four years ago to disqualify the votes that elected Trump or to spur Democratic voters to attack the Capitol to prevent the certification of his presidency. While the left-wing antifa movement has violent tendencies, it isnt an organized group nor is it aligned with Biden or Democrats. And at least right now, national security experts describe right-wing violence as a much bigger danger in America than any violent behavior from the left. In an October 2020 report, the Department of Homeland Security called violent white supremacists the most persistent and lethal threat in the Homeland.

And, of course, Democrats did not embrace an anti-democratic figure like Trump as their standard-bearer. There are no Democratic politicians in Congress implying that conservative politicians are such dangers to the country that they should be killed.

[Related: The GOP Might Still Be Trumps Party. But That Doesnt Mean Theres Room For Him.]

The GOP is a counter-majoritarian party now, every week it becomes less like a normal party, said Jay Rosen, a journalism professor at New York University who has written extensively about the radicalization of the Republican Party. The GOP has to make it harder to vote and harder to understand what the party is all about. Those are two parts of the same project. And it cant treat its white supremacist and violent wings as extremists who should be isolated because it needs them. They provide motor and momentum.

The GOP has radicalized (and is still radicalizing) on its willingness to break democratic norms and subvert or eliminate political institutions. Dont expect restraint where youve seen it in the past, said Charlotte Hill, a Ph.D. candidate at the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, who conducts research on election and voting laws.

Because of this deep conservative antipathy for the liberal version of America, Joanne Freeman, a professor of history and American studies at Yale University, has compared the state of America today to the 1850s, right before the U.S. Civil War.

Mass violence in Congress seemed possible in 1850. Now, 171 years later, its in the national mindscape once again. And for good reason. The echoes of 1850 are striking. Were at a moment of extreme polarization when outcomes matter, sometimes profoundly, Freeman wrote in a recent essay in The New York Times.

The Republicans, she continued, whose ironclad grip on the Senate has dominated the federal government, feel entitled to that power and increasingly threatened; they know theyre swimming against the demographic tide in a diversifying nation. They have proven themselves ready and eager for minority rule; voter suppression centered on people of color is on the rise and has been for some time. And some of them are willing to protect what they deem right with threats of violence.

To be sure, only a very, very small fraction of conservative Americans participate in acts of domestic terrorism. Most rank-and-file Republicans would likely describe themselves as opposed to individualized acts of racism (a workplace not hiring Black employees, for example) as well as systemic racism and white supremacy. Most Republican voters are not directly participating in moves by GOP officials to make it harder for people of color to vote. And there are a lot of Republican elected officials who have not tried to have the 2020 election results disqualified or promoted laws and rules to make it harder for people of color to vote.

At the same time, Republican voters have stuck with the party despite its recent shift toward move overt and aggressive anti-democratic behavior. This stuff seems not a deal-breaker to the vast majority of Republican voters, said Zimmer.

[Related: How Trump Changed America]

Susan Hyde, a political scientist at University of California, Berkeley, who studies democracy and democratic backsliding both in the U.S. and abroad, said that Republican voters tolerated the partys anti-democratic tendencies because the partys elites signaled that it was OK to do so. Republican politicians have been lying to their own voters, and they need to stop doing that if we are going to have peace, said Hyde, who was referring specifically to the false belief among a large bloc of Republican voters that Trump won the election.

The war is not completely one-sided, however. Liberals and Democrats are trying to enact what amounts to an equality agenda to create a new America where LGBTQ Americans can openly participate in any institution; women can join and lead any institution; and women, Black people, Native Americans and other traditionally marginalized groups can have as much power, wealth and representation as the shares of the population they represent.

Through legislation, lawsuits and other means, liberals and Democrats are pressing this agenda aggressively, over the objections of conservatives. Same-sex marriage has been legalized, and some legal protections have been extended to transgender Americans. Liberals are trying to outlaw the death penalty while trying to enshrine into law the right to use marijuana. They are pushing for a dramatic rethinking of American institutions, including the church and the police, and in some ways a rethinking of America itself.

And liberals and Democrats, believing that their equality agenda is right and just, increasingly cast those who oppose it in very negative terms like racist and sexist. Views held by even many Democrats a decade ago opposition to same-sex marriage and skepticism that racial discrimination is a major barrier to Black advancement in America are now sharply criticized. These criticisms are at the root of conservative complaints that American culture is too politically correct or that those who dissent from the liberal view must be canceled. And in some instances, liberal pressure does result in conservatives being denied platforms: Twitter suspended Trumps account, for example, and Simon and Schuster canceled a book deal with Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley.

Of course, some conservative behavior, like trying to make it harder for Black people to vote, probably should be both shamed and called out as racist. That said, its important to understand that some liberal and Democratic policies will require conservative Christians in particular to live in a changed America that they simply do not wish to live in. And the liberal focus on ideas like systemic racism and white supremacy has left many conservatives feeling that their individual behaviors and choices are being unfairly cast as racist.

Conservatives are reacting to something real, said Zimmer. Their version of Real America a white, Christian America is under threat. Republicans are convinced they are waging a noble war against the demise of Real America. Conservatives think their backs are against the wall.

[On the left] there is a demand for more redistribution and laws and programs that help some people and not others, said Vasabjit Banerjee, a political scientist at Mississippi State University who studies political conflicts. For example, he described Black Lives Matter as a form of status redistribution, that might be threatening to non-Black Americans because the movements goal is to, in effect, make Black people truly full citizens in America, equal to white Americans.

Reflecting on the actions of both sides, you can see why conservative attacks on liberals are much more problematic than the inverse. And thats why it is hard to imagine Biden being able to unify America or end this uncivil war his side is not the one feeling most aggrieved and taking anti-democratic, even violent, measures to win.

In his inaugural speech, Biden said, We have learned again that democracy is precious. Democracy is fragile. And at this hour, my friends, democracy has prevailed.

He didnt quite say why we had learned that democracy is precious, why it is fragile, or who or what it had prevailed against. But the reality is that some Republicans in America are so intent on defeating liberals that they are willing to erode Americas democracy, or even end it, along the way to victory.

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In Americas Uncivil War, Republicans Are The Aggressors - FiveThirtyEight

By now, Jeff Flake thought this would all be over.

Flake, the former Arizona Republican senator and outspoken critic of Donald Trump, concedes that he expected the ripple effects in the Republican party Trumps loss of the White House to have been bigger by now.

Instead, Flake has had to watch as Trump departed office but Trumpism refused to fade around the country. That includes in Flakes home state, where the Republican party recently censured him alongside the two other most prominent Republicans Cindy McCain, the widow of the late senator John McCain, and Doug Ducey, the Arizona governor.

I do think this fever will break, but its been slow, Flake said in an interview with the Guardian. Its been really slow.

For much of the Trump administration Flake was something of a solitary voice within his party, opposing him first as a rare anti-Trump statewide elected official and then as a member of the club of Republicans who stood up to the 45th president only to face blowback.

Throughout all of that Flake hoped Trump would leave office one way or another, other Republicans would see the same light he did, and the opposition to the 45th president would grow. Flake calls it a migration of Republicans away from their fealty to Trump.

This migration will start, Flake said chuckling. Its just slow to get going.

These days the outlook for anti-Trump Republicans can feel both bright and dark. Trump is out of office and there are elected Republican officials actively working to move on from Trump under the specter of blowback from activists within the GOP.

Congressman Adam Kinzinger of Illinois has set up a political action committee to fight against the QAnon movement saturating the Republican party. The House Republican conference chairwoman, Liz Cheney, and almost a dozen other Republicans voted to move forward with impeaching Trump again.

Other Republicans stood up to Trump as he was peddling unfounded claims about voter fraud after Joe Biden won the presidential election but before he took office.

But those forces are more a small rebellion or insurgency and less an army involved in an inter-party civil war. The anti-Trumpists are growing but very slowly, Flake concedes. Flake thinks successfully convicting Trump in his upcoming impeachment trial would help speed things along.

I think if theres enough elected officials who say were done then that is the threshold, we cross that rubicon that we need to cross, and then Trump fades quickly, Flake said.

It wasnt supposed to be like this for Flake, a libertarian leaning conservative with soap opera-star good looks. He served in the House of Representatives for over a decade before winning the Senate seat once held by conservative icon Barry Goldwater in then-reliably red state Arizona. But as Trumps unlikely presidential bid took off, Flake refused to go along with most of his Republican colleagues and fall in line. In October 2017 he delivered a speech in which he said he wouldnt seek another term.

I didnt want to leave the Senate. I wanted to do another term at least, Flake said. But the thought of standing on a campaign stage with Donald Trump and laughing at his jokes and staring at my feet while he ridiculed my colleagues I just could not do it. Theres nothing worth that. But I look and think going off and leaving the party or starting a third party that just doesnt we need two strong parties in this country. I think that well be back, I hope that we will. I want to be part of that.

Since then Flake hasnt shied away from speaking out against Trump and he plans to continue to do so, in addition to some teaching work hes doing at Arizona State University. Flake is also a familiar face on cable news and in political reporting.

Flake is optimistic as well. He predicted in his interview with the Guardian on Tuesday that extremist congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, a QAnon conspiracy theory supporter, would be stripped of her committee assignments, an effective legislative neutering for any member of Congress. She was though it was Democrats, not Republicans who did it.

He also doesnt think Cheney is doomed to lose re-election as Trumpists seek her ouster. On Wednesday, House minority leader Kevin McCarthy opted to support Cheney in the face of an uproar over her move to help impeach Trump.

Youre having some defining moments here soon with Marjorie Taylor Greene and what theyre going to have to do with her and that will maybe expedite this departure, I guess, Flake said. I wouldnt count Liz Cheney out here. She has some benefits and ties thats just so high profile now that she might be able to survive it. Maybe Adam Kinzinger too. Im sure hoping and praying so.

Asked if hes been in touch with either Cheney or Kinzinger, Flake said he hadnt but he said hes talking with some similarly minded Republicans.

Trumpism requires a certain amount of swagger that you lose when you lose. And he lost, Flake said. In Georgia he couldnt pull those two senators across the finish line. So yeah, I very much believe that would be the case and that would come a lot faster if more elected officials would say yeah, we gotta move on. I think theyll get to that point but boy its been slow.

He also has seen shoots of promise at home. His neighbors in the Pheonix suburbs where he lives once ran up Trump flags on their properties. Not anymore.

There were actually two neighbors, one on either side, had Trump flags, theyre both down, Flake said, cautioning that elsewhere in his neighborhood Trump fans are still flying their support.

Recently Flake and his wife took a long leisurely bike ride through his neighborhood and counted the Trump signs still up. They cringed when they saw signs at houses they knew. They then went by one house with three cars in his driveway. As they passed he yelled thanks for doing what you did. We gotta get past this.

That surprised Flake, he recalled. He didnt know the man and he assumed of all the houses he passed this would be home of a Trump fan.

We engaged in a very enlightened conversation about the future of the party and how he wanted to stay but it was difficult, Flake said.

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This fever will break: Republican Jeff Flake on the slow fade of Trumpism - The Guardian

The public overwhelmingly wants to see the Republican Party move on from Trump once he's left office. Overall, just 19% say the party ought to continue to treat Trump as its leader, while 77% say it should move on. Among Republicans, views are split, with 48% saying the party should move on and 47% saying the party should continue to treat Trump as the leader of the party. Independents who lean toward the Republican Party, however, are much more likely to say the party should move on from Trump (62% feel that way).

And after months of the Trump campaign and conservative media sowing doubts about the results of the 2020 presidential election, self-identified Republicans are less likely to have confidence in American elections than are Democrats, which could complicate GOP efforts to get those voters to the polls in future contests. There is no evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 presidential election. Yet 75% of Republicans say they have little or no confidence that elections in America today reflect the will of the people, including a majority (57%) who say they are not at all confident that election results represent the will of the people.

The Republican Party's favorability rating has taken a 9-point hit since before Election Day, with just 32% viewing it favorably. That shift rests mostly on a decline in positive views among Republicans themselves: 92% had a positive take in October, just 76% do now.

The drop in positive sentiment toward the GOP comes as opinions of Trump have also shifted negative. The President will leave office this week with the lowest approval rating of his term, while most would prefer him to be removed from office before January 20, and a majority describe his time in office as a failure.

Views of the Democratic Party, meanwhile, have held about even, 49% have a favorable view now compared with 46% in October. And self-identified Democrats are more apt to have a favorable view of their own party (89%) than Republicans are to say they have a positive take on their chosen party.

McConnell, the current majority leader who will become minority leader after Biden is inaugurated and the results of the Georgia Senate runoffs are certified, is viewed more negatively than he has been at any point in CNN's polling by a wide margin. About two-thirds (66%) have an unfavorable view of the Kentucky Republican, outpacing his previous high by 17 points. Those unfavorable views have grown across party lines, up 20 points among Republicans, 18 points among independents and up 14 points among Democrats since a December 2019 poll.

McConnell's negatives far outpace those of any of the other top leaders in Congress, though none are viewed positively. Views of incoming Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer are about evenly divided, 39% favorable and 41% unfavorable. Most Democrats (75%) say they have a positive view of Schumer, about 30 points better than McConnell's favorability among Republicans.

On the House side, Speaker Nancy Pelosi is viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 52%. Democrats largely view the Speaker positively (84% favorable), while Republicans are sharply negative toward Pelosi (94% have an unfavorable view of her). House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is less well-known than other leaders in Congress (42% offer no opinion of him), but those with an opinion tilt slightly negative (25% favorable to 33% unfavorable). Among Republicans, 43% have a favorable view and 21% an unfavorable one.

Methodology

The methodology and weighting for this poll has been modified compared with previous CNN polls. Interviews conducted on cellphones made up 75% of the total, up from 65% in prior surveys. Dialing extended over six days rather than four days, allowing for more effort to be made to contact those who are not easily reachable. Demographic weighting was adjusted to account for more discrete education categories broken out by race, and a geographic weight was applied to ensure representative distribution by population density. In addition, results were weighted for partisan identification and lean among independents, with targets computed using an average of the current poll plus three recent CNN polls.

The new CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS January 9 through 14 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

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CNN Poll: Republican Party favorability dips as most want party to move on from Trump - CNN

Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming is one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump on Wednesday. Samuel Corum/Getty Images hide caption

Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming is one of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump on Wednesday.

Ten Republicans crossed President Trump on Wednesday and voted to impeach him for "incitement of insurrection."

It was a historic vote and one that came exactly a week after a pro-Trump mob laid siege to the U.S. Capitol after attending a Trump rally on the Ellipse outside the White House. The Capitol was ransacked and occupied for hours, and, in the end, five Americans died and many others were injured as a result.

The 10 House members who voted to impeach Trump don't cut a singular profile. They come from a range of districts, from coast to coast, some representing places Trump won handily in 2020, while others are in more moderate seats.

This vote could expose some of them to potential primary challenges from the right as well as possible safety threats, but for all of them Trump had simply gone too far. Multiple House Republicans said threats toward them and their families were factors weighing on their decisions on whether to impeach this president.

Ten out of 211 Republicans in the House is hardly an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and clearly, most Republicans' sympathies still lie with Trump and his ardent base of followers. But the 10 represent something significant the most members of a president's party to vote for his impeachment in U.S. history.

Here they are in order of the most pro-Trump districts:

1. Rep. Liz Cheney, Wyoming's at-large district: Trump won Wyoming 70% to 27%, and she's the third-ranking leader in the House. So for her not just to vote in favor of impeachment but also issue a stinging rebuke is quite the step. Cheney was unequivocal in her statement, saying Trump "summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack." She called what Trump did the "greatest betrayal" of a U.S. president ever.

2. Rep. Tom Rice, South Carolina's 7th Congressional District: This is one no one saw coming. The congressman, who has served since 2013, comes from a pretty pro-Trump district (Trump won it 59% to 40%), and there was no indication he would do so beforehand. Even during his vote, Twitter was alight with speculation that Rice had cast the wrong vote. Turns out, he cast it exactly as he wanted to. Later Wednesday, Rice explained: "I have backed this President through thick and thin for four years. I campaigned for him and voted for him twice. But, this utter failure is inexcusable."

3. Rep. Dan Newhouse, Washington's 4th: Trump won this central Washington state district by a handy margin, 58% to 40%. But for Newhouse, who has served since 2015 and has not been a prominent member, it was clear: "The mob was inflamed by the language and misinformation of the President of the United States. ... A vote against impeachment is a vote to validate unacceptable violence" and "to condone President Trump's inaction."

4. Rep. Adam Kinzinger, Illinois' 16th: Kinzinger's decision was probably the least surprising on this list. Despite coming from a district Trump won 57% to 41%, the Air Force veteran has been outspoken recently against Trump's behavior. He said Trump "incited this insurrection" and "if these actions the Article II branch inciting a deadly insurrection against the Article I branch are not worthy of impeachment, then what is an impeachable offense?"

5. Rep. Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio's 16th: Gonzalez, a former NFL wide receiver, is in his second term in Congress. Trump won his district by 15 points, but Gonzalez was unequivocal: Trump, he said, "helped organize and incite a mob that attacked the United States Congress in an attempt to prevent us from completing our solemn duties as prescribed by the Constitution." He added that during the attack, Trump "abandoned his post ... thus further endangering all present."

6. Rep. Fred Upton, Michigan's 6th: Upton has been in office since 1987. He comes from a district that is more moderate. Trump won it just 51% to 47%. Upton has good relationships with Democrats, including President-elect Joe Biden, and even has #WearYourMask in his Twitter bio. Upton said he would have preferred a bipartisan censure that would not interfere with the business of the next administration, "but," he said, "it is time to say enough is enough." He also cited Trump's efforts "to impede the peaceful transfer of power from one President to the next."

7. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, Washington's 3rd: Herrera Beutler was swept in with the Tea Party wave in 2010, but her district is a moderate one. Trump won it 51% to 47%. Herrera Beutler gained prominence several years ago for giving birth to a child three months early, born without kidneys and a rare syndrome. Her daughter, Abigail, became the first to survive the often-fatal condition. The now-mother of three and congresswoman from southwest Washington state declared on the House floor her vote in favor of impeachment: "I'm not choosing sides, I'm choosing truth."

8. Rep. Peter Meijer, Michigan's 3rd: Meijer is a freshman, who won his seat with 53% of the vote. He represents a district that was previously held by Justin Amash, the former Republican-turned-independent who voted in favor of Trump's impeachment in 2019. Meijer, a Columbia University grad who served in Afghanistan, is a social conservative in favor of restrictions on abortion rights and against restrictions on gun rights and religious freedoms. But he said Trump showed no "courage" and "betrayed millions with claims of a 'stolen election.' " He added, "The one man who could have restored order, prevented the deaths of five Americans including a Capitol police officer, and avoided the desecration of our Capitol, shrank from leadership when our country needed it most."

9. Rep. John Katko, New York's 24th: Katko is a moderate from an evenly divided moderate district. A former federal prosecutor, he said of Trump: "It cannot be ignored that President Trump encouraged this insurrection." He also noted that as the riot was happening, Trump "refused to call it off, putting countless lives in danger."

10. Rep. David Valadao, California's 21st: The Southern California congressman represents a majority-Latino district Biden won 54% to 44%. Valadao won election to this seat in 2012 before losing it in 2018 and winning it back in the fall. He's the rare case of a member of Congress who touts his willingness to work with the other party. Of his vote for impeachment, he said: "President Trump was, without question, a driving force in the catastrophic events that took place on January 6." He added, "His inciting rhetoric was un-American, abhorrent, and absolutely an impeachable offense."

The 10 who voted with Democrats to impeach Trump could give a degree of cover and open the door a little wider for Republicans in the Senate to vote to convict Trump. Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah was the sole Republican senator to vote to convict Trump in 2020.

This time, there will be more. Some Republican senators have called on Trump to resign, and even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he is undecided at this point.

Trump's impeachment won't lead to his removal even if he is convicted because of the timeline. The Senate is adjourned until Tuesday. The next day, Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president. But there's another penalty the Constitution allows for as a result of a Senate conviction that could be appealing to some Republican senators banning Trump from holding "office" again.

While there is some debate as to the definition of "office" in the Constitution and whether that would apply to running for president or even Congress, that kind of public rebuke would send a strong message that Republicans are ready to move on from Trumpism.

Some ambitious Republican senators have never been as on board the Trump train as the more feverish GOP members in the House, and the former might be open to convicting Trump. But their ambition cuts two ways on the one hand, voting to ban Trump opens a lane to carry the Republican mantle in 2024 and be the party's new standard-bearer, but, on the other, it has the potential to alienate many of the 74 million who voted for Trump, and whose votes they need.

It's a long shot that Trump would ultimately be convicted, because 17 Republicans would need to join Democrats to get the two-thirds majority needed for a conviction. But it's growing clearer that a majority of the Senate will vote to convict him, reflecting the number of Americans who are in favor of impeachment, disapproved of the job Trump has done and voted for his opponent in the 2020 presidential election.

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These Are The 10 Republicans Who Voted To Impeach Trump - NPR

Condoll says post-election, post insurrection and more recently, through the impeachment vote, the state of flux for the GOP became more evident.

NEW ORLEANS In a matter of days, the inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden will usher in a new administration and its unclear the level of cooperation hell receive from the Republican party.

Political watchers say the GOP is at a crossroads.

Even before the raid on the U.S. Capitol, there were signs of a splintering within the party. Some Republicans, like Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy, said the country must recognize Joe Biden won the election.

His fellow Senator from Louisiana, John Kennedy, repeated President Trumps unfounded claims of election fraud.

I think the divide between the two senators here in Louisiana is symbolic of the divide within the Republican party overall. Were really seeing a split, a tearing apart in fact of the Republican party, said Ed Chervenak, political scientist at the University of New Orleans.

The split became more apparent after the insurrection on January 6th. A noticeable change of tone and positions from several Republicans was on display when Congress reconvened later that night.

I think what we saw was a come to Jesus moment, where the Republican party said enough is enough. It was recognizing that what we had was a valid democratic process, that we must respect the process as we continue to work through the other issues, said Blair Condoll, political science professor at Dillard University.

Condoll says post-election, post insurrection and more recently, through the impeachment vote, the state of flux for the GOP became more evident.

There has to be a reckoning within the party, said Condoll.

This past week, a small minority of Republicans voted to impeach the President. That number amounted to about five percent of Republicans in the House of Representatives.

Louisiana Congressman Steve Scalises vote against impeachment, represented the vast majority of House republicans. With the impeachment trial looming in the senate and a new administration about to take office, how will the GOP respond?

Its really hard to tell, were really in uncharted territory right now, said Ed Chervenak.

Chervenak said the Republican rift in Washington may trickle down to Louisiana.

It could be that schism at the national level may present itself at the state level, and then it begins to get very difficult to get things done because its the state government that has much more influence over our lives than the federal government, said Chervenak.

In a state thats solidly Republican, how red the GOP remains may have major effects on those even outside of the party.

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Rifts in the Republican party as inauguration day approaches - WWLTV.com

Nick Calio will remain president of the Air Transport Association (Photo by Scott J. Ferrell)

Nick Calio, the Republican president and CEO of the lobbying group for the U.S. airline industry, will remain on the job despite the transition to the Biden administration.

Calios stay was confirmed by a source with knowledge of the thinking of the board of Airlines for America, which represents seven of the largest passenger airlines as well as three top cargo airlines.

We look forward to Calios continued leadership as the U.S. airline industry looks towards recovery from this unprecedented crisis, A4A said Saturday, in an email.

Speculation regarding Calios continued service has circulated since Joe Biden won election as president on November 3rd.

Calio is a longtime Republican who ran legislative affairs office for both President George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.

Calio took over at A4A in January 2011, moving from a job as a top lobbyist for Citibank. He replaced Jim May at the behest of Glenn Tilton, the former Texaco CEO who became CEO of United Airlines and A4A chairman.

Calio is one of Washingtons top paid lobbyists, collecting about $4 million annually, according to the website Nonprofitlight.com.

The airline industry is a visible one, but it has never had a particularly influential role in Washington. The biggest passenger airlines are not giant companies, relatively speaking, but rather have annual revenue in the $50 billion range. Even the two big overnight cargo carriers, A4A members FedEx and UPS, are bigger: each has annual revenue in the $70 billion range.

Nevertheless, in the coronavirus crisis, airlines did better than many other industries, securing targeted relief packages in both stimulus bills passed by Congress. In March, the Cares Act included $31 billion for airline employees. The December stimulus include $15 billion for airline employees and another $1 billion for employees of airline contractors.

The packages were largely a result of extensive lobbying by airline labor unions, who worked closely with the carriers and A4A.

Labor took it over, but we also had to get the airlines, said a union source who asked not to be named.Once they got on board, Nick has been a great partner. In the past year, theyve done everything we asked.

In fact, Calio has regularly been lauded for an ability to build consensus. But he is not not universally esteemed by airline labor.

Calio has always been seen as highly partisan, said Peter Goeltz, a longtime Democratic lobbyist and former managing director of the National Transportation Safety Board.

Goeltz noted that A4A has been stocked with Republicans, including Rebecca Spicer, the wife of former Trump White House Press Secretary spokesman Sean Spicer, as senior vice president of communications, reporting directly to Calio. She also worked in the George W. Bush White House.

With a new administration coming in, theres got to be some wholesale changes at the top of A4A or the air carriers will have to get used to having a little less influence. Goeltz said.

Even working together, A4A and airline labor were unable to get the U.S. Department of Transportation to take a stand on requiring passengers to wear masks or mandating airlines to keep middle seats empty, Goeltz said.

Now, incoming President Biden has said he will require masks on mass transportation and Delta is the only airline that keeps middle seats empty.

According to the A4A website, Under Calios leadership, A4A rebranded and honed its focus on being an influential voice in helping to shape legislative and regulatory policies and priorities that improve air travel for everyone.

Known for his ability to build consensus, Calio focused the re-launched association on working collaboratively with airlines, labor unions, Congress and the Administration to promote safety, security and a healthy U.S. airline industry, the website says.

It also says that as President George W. Bushs principal liaison to Congress, Calio worked closely with the leadership and members of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives and had the primary responsibility for formulating and implementing White House strategy on all legislative issues. He held the same position during the administration of President George H.W. Bush.

A graduate of Ohio Wesleyan University, Calio is now vice president of the universitys board of trustees. He also graduated from Case Western Reserve University School of Law.

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Airline Industrys Top Lobbying Group Will Retain Its Republican Chief - Forbes

Congressman August Pfluger and members of the Republican Study Committee has introduced a new piece of legislation to restore the trust in elections.

TEXAS, USA Congressman August Pfluger and members of the Republican Study Committee has introduced a new piece of legislation to restore the trust in elections.

The Save Democracy Act, written by Pfluger and endorsed by the Republican Study Committee Chairman Jim Banks along with other members of the RSC, is being introduced in an effort to build the community's trust that their vote will be counted during elections.

Congressman Pfluger says that it is imperative Congress moves to restore faith in the democratic process.

The people of the 11th District of Texas demand secure and transparent elections. In that effort, I am proud to support the Save Democracy Act to address key failures in our electoral system including voter registration, ballot casting, and ballot counting. It is imperative that Congress moves to restore the faith in our democratic process and bring election certitude to every American.

The introduction of the Save Democracy Act is said to enhance federal election integrity by addressing voter registration, the casting of ballots, and the tabulation of ballots.

The bill would prohibit or reform current practices by:

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Congressman August Pfluger and Republican Study Committee introduces new bill to restore trust in elections - NewsWest9.com