Category Archives: Republican

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) speaks to the media as the impeachment trial of U.S. President Donald Trump continues in Washington, U.S., January 27, 2020. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

U.S. Representative Elise Stefanik's first turn in the national limelight came when she mounted an impassioned defense of Donald Trump at his first impeachment trial in 2019, leading the then-president to declare that "a star is born."

Stefanik's star could rise higher as Trump now pushes for her to be elected the No. 3 Republican in the House of Representatives, where her colleagues are set to vote on Wednesday to remove Representative Liz Cheney from that role for rejecting his continued false claims that the 2020 presidential election was marred by widespread fraud.

It is a profound change for Stefanik, a New York state Republican first elected in 2014 on a moderate platform, who avoided saying Trump's name publicly during the 2016 campaign season and did not vote for him in that year's Republican presidential primary.

The change won over party leaders in the House, Representatives Kevin McCarthy and Steve Scalise - who along with Trump endorsed Stefanik to replace Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney - as well as many people in her rural district, which encompasses much of the Adirondack Mountains.

"Here in Fulton County, we're proud and very happy with the path she's on," said Sue McNeil, chair of the county's Republican committee since 2008. "We're Trump country up here."

Staff for Stefanik did not make her available for an interview. She is one of 147 Republicans in Congress who voted in January to try to block the certification of Democratic President Joe Biden's election win, hours after a deadly assault on the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters.

Stefanik, now 36, was the youngest woman ever elected to Congress when she first won her district, which had voted twice for Democratic President Barack Obama and had been represented by Democrats in Congress since 1993.

She had worked for establishment Republicans including former President George W. Bush and the party's 2012 vice presidential nominee, former House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Michael Steel, who worked with Stefanik on Ryan's campaign, said Stefanik had grown more conservative along with her district. But he also saw no big clash between her previous reputation as a moderate Republican and her embrace of Trump.

"President Trump is not particularly conservative in many policy areas," said Steel, who was a spokesman for Ryan's campaign and for former House Speaker John Boehner.

'NOT ABOUT TELLING THE TRUTH'

The conservative Club for Growth, which rates members of Congress, gives her a lifetime score of just 35% for voting in line with its priorities, one of the worst among House Republicans, and well below Cheney's 65%. That has led some conservative House members to push back against elevating Stefanik.

"Her voting record is atrocious," Representative Chip Roy said last week on radio's "Erick Erickson Show."

On Tuesday Roy asked fellow Republicans to consider a more conservative contender for the job or to leave the position open, according to a letter to the caucus seen by Reuters.

Stefanik has worked hard, with some success, to help elect other Republican women to Congress. Last year, she raised and donated over $2 million for Republican candidates. Three fourths of that went to Republican women, who more than doubled their numbers in the House, although they still lag behind the Democrats.

But Olivia Troye, who was an aide to former Vice President Mike Pence before leaving in August, said it had been "disappointing" to see Stefanik potentially elevated into leadership for being a Trump acolyte who advances his voting fraud claims.

"She's not getting it on the merits of being bipartisan, she's not getting it on the merits of her policymaking, her governing," said Troye, part of the Republican Accountability Project. "She's getting it on the merits of lying. It's not about telling the truth. She's rising in power for her lies."

"The more they attack Elise Stefanik, the stronger she becomes," said her senior adviser, Alex DeGrasse.

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Loyalty to Trump catapults Elise Stefanik into Republican stardom - Reuters

More than 100 Republicans, including some former elected officials, are preparing to release a letter this week threatening to form a third party if the Republican Party does not make certain changes, according to an organizer of the effort.

The statement is expected to take aim at former President Donald J. Trumps stranglehold on Republicans, which signatories to the document have deemed unconscionable.

When in our democratic republic, forces of conspiracy, division, and despotism arise, it is the patriotic duty of citizens to act collectively in defense of liberty and justice, reads the preamble to the full statement, which is expected to be released on Thursday.

The effort comes as House Republican leaders are expected on Wednesday to oust Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming from their ranks because of her outspoken criticism of Mr. Trumps election lies.

This is a first step, said Miles Taylor, an organizer of the effort and a former Trump-era Department of Homeland Security official who anonymously wrote a book condemning the Trump administration. In October, Mr. Taylor acknowledged he was the author of both the book and a 2018 New York Times Op-Ed article.

This is us saying that a group of more than 100 prominent Republicans think that the situation has gotten so dire with the Republican Party that it is now time to seriously consider whether an alternative might be the only option, he said.

The list of people signing the statement includes former officials at both the state and national level who once were governors, members of Congress, ambassadors, cabinet secretaries, state legislators and Republican Party chairmen, Mr. Taylor said.

Mr. Taylor declined to name the signers. Reuters reported earlier that the former governors Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania and Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey will sign it, as will former Transportation Secretary Mary E. Peters and former Representatives Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, Barbara Comstock of Virginia, Reid Ribble of Wisconsin and Mickey Edwards of Oklahoma.

Mr. Taylor declined on Tuesday to reveal the specific changes that the coalition was planning to demand of the Republican Party in its statement.

Im still a Republican, but Im hanging on by the skin of my teeth because how quickly the party has divorced itself from truth and reason, Mr. Taylor said. Im one of those in the group that feels very strongly that if we cant get the G.O.P. back to a rational party that supports free minds, free markets, and free people, Im out and a lot of people are coming with me.

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Over 100 Republicans, Including Former Officials, Threaten to Split from GOP - The New York Times

DENVER More than 100 Republican heavyweights could part ways with the Grand Old Party on Thursday and create their own movement if conservatives don't ditch President Donald Trump and his influence over elections.

The names of who signed the letter have not been released, but an excerpt from the letter was leaked to the New York Times stating, "When in our democratic republic, forces of conspiracy, division, and despotism arise, it is the patriotic duty of citizens to act collectively in defense of liberty and justice."

Sarah Lenti, a Denverite and former Republican, says she has felt those forces before. She left her post as a policy adviser on Republican presidential campaigns to join the Lincoln Project as Trump was gearing up for his second run.

"When you look at the cult of Trump, it's less about policy as it is about loyalty to a figure," Lenti said. "The Republican Party needs to get back to a party built on policy competition, and they've lost that."

But she says the move, no matter how bold, is unlikely to gain steam.

"They're just going to siphon off Republicans from Republicans and make it easier for Democrats to win," Lenti said. "If your strength is waned, you're hurting yourselves."

The letter is being released one day after Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney was ousted for her opposition to Trump and his behavior on Jan. 6 that contributed to the riots at the U.S. Capitol.

"I think she's very brave," Lenti said. "I don't know that this bodes well for her getting reelected in Wyoming. And with respect to a possible presidential run, it seems like the pulse of the Republican Party is with Trump right now."

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As 100+ Republicans threaten to leave the party, a Denver consultant explains why its not that easy - The Denver Channel

Kristina Karamo falsely claimed former President Donald Trump won Michigan and spent weeks challenging the election results. Now shes running for Secretary of State, the office responsible for administering election law.

Karamo, an Oak Park resident, was a poll challenger at the TCF Center in Detroit who claimed she witnessed irregularities in the processing of absentee ballots. Karamo made dozens of appearances on right-wing media outlets as a whistleblower, testified before a Michigan legislative committee and supported legal efforts to overturn the presidential election.

Related: A closer look at how Trump lost Michigan: State releases election results by city, township

Michigans certified election results show President Joe Biden won the state by 154,188 votes. Last month, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson released details on 250 post-election audits that reaffirmed the accuracy of the election.

The majority of audits were conducted by bipartisan county clerks. The audits found no examples of fraud or intentional misconduct by election officials and no evidence that equipment used to tabulate or report election results did not function properly when properly programmed and tested.

Benson, a Democrat, has called the 2020 election the most fair, secure and accurate in Michigans history. The former president and his allies continue to allege widespread fraud caused him to lose the state regardless, despite a lack of evidence.

Benson has not announced whether she will run for re-election in 2022. She was elected in 2018 with 53% of the vote.

Karamo formed her candidate committee on March 19. Her campaign issued a press release Thursday announcing her candidacy.

The release touts her appearance on Fox News programs. Karamo was interviewed by Sean Hannity, Lous Dobbs and other conservative media personalities about her experiences at the TCF Center in Detroit. Her campaign website lists election integrity as a top issue and states Karamo built a patriot team who are researching election failures.

Running to be Secretary of State is not a career move for me, Karmano said in a statement. I am running to remove corruption from our elections and from the Michigan SOS office. That corruption is a real threat to our survival as a state and as a nation. A secure election is how we the people, give our consent to be governed.

Cathleen Postmus, a Plainfield Township clerk, is also running for the Republican Partys nomination. Postmus was re-elected to the clerks office for a second term in 2020 and ran unopposed. A website for her secretary of state campaign also cites a need for increased transparency and accountability in how we run our elections.

Shaun Whitehead filed a candidate committee with no party affiliation in March.

Karamo testified before the Senate Oversight Committee during a December hearing on the election. Oversight Committee Chair Ed McBroom, R-Vulcan, said the probe revealed no evidence of widespread fraud.

Like Trump, Karamo criticized Michigan Republicans who pushed back against allegations that the election was stolen. Karamo called then-House Speaker Lee Chatfield, a Republican who met with Trump after the election but refused to replace the Democratic electors, a fraud in a tweet published days after Michigans Electoral College vote.

Karamo repeatedly pointed to Antrim County as evidence of alleged irregularities that tipped the state to Biden. A legal battle is ongoing over the results. An audit and hand recount of the votes showed a total of 9,759 votes for Trump and 5,959 for Biden a net change of 12 votes from the tabulated results.

Karamo included her affidavit in a lawsuit filed by members of Black Voices for Trump. The lawsuit sought an injunction preventing Michigans results from being certified, but was rejected in a 4-3 decision by the Michigan Supreme Court.

Karamo also filed to intervene in a lawsuit filed by the Texas attorney general that sought to block Michigans Electoral College votes from being counted. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Texas lacked standing to bring the lawsuit.

Karamo is a member of MIGOP state committee and was on the Black leadership committee with Right to Life, an anti-abortion group. She unsuccessfully ran for Oakland County commissioner in 2018.

Karamo teaches a college orientation class at Wayne County Community College. She has a masters degree in Christian Apologetics, the study of defending theology, and a bachelors degree in communication and media studies from Oakland University.

MLive contacted Karamos campaign with a request for comment. The campaign did not arrange an interview Thursday.

READ MORE ON MLIVE:

A closer look at how Trump lost Michigan: State releases election results by city, township

Judge reins in sprawling Michigan election fraud lawsuit

Antrim County hand recount results in 12 new votes for Trump

With the world watching, a Republican state canvasser helps make Bidens win in Michigan official

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Republican who challenged Michigan election results now running for Secretary of State - MLive.com

The Republican congressman Adam Kinzinger said on Monday he warned the House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, about potential violence at the US Capitol on 6 January but McCarthy dismissed his concerns.

A few days before Jan 6 , our GOP members had a conference call, Kinzinger said on Twitter. I told Kevin that his words and our partys actions would lead to violence on January 6th. Kevin dismissively responded with, OK Adam. Operator, next question. And we got violence.

Five people died amid and after scenes of chaos at the Capitol, as supporters told by Donald Trump to fight like hell in his attempt to overturn his election defeat broke into the building, in some cases allegedly looking for lawmakers to kill.

On Monday, Kinzinger also said he had considered trying to force a vote of no-confidence in McCarthy after the insurrection.

I dont consider him to be speaking on behalf of the Republican party any more, Kinzinger told Bloomberg News. I actually thought the person that should have their leadership challenged was Kevin McCarthy after 6 January because thats why this all happened.

Kinzinger said he abandoned such plans to keep the focus on the impeachment vote against Trump which followed the insurrection. Ten House Republicans voted with Democrats to impeach Trump for inciting the riot but only seven Republican senators followed, too few to return a guilty verdict.

McCarthy did not immediately comment.

Kinzinger has been outspoken in his criticism of Trump and others peddling the big lie that there was widespread fraud in the presidential election.

But like most of his party McCarthy has sided with a former president whose grip on the party seems set to strengthen this week with the ejection from leadership of Liz Cheney, a Wyoming conservative who has also spoken against him.

Kinzinger has been one of Cheneys few Republican defenders in Congress. Speaking to Bloomberg, he said: Liz is the one playing defense, for what? Whats she playing defense for? Telling the truth and not ransacking the Capitol on 6 January?

If you think about it from the forest, its ludicrous that shes having to defend herself. Thats insane, but thats where we are.

Speaking to CBS News on Sunday, Kinzinger said his party was going to get rid of Liz Cheney because theyd much rather pretend that the conspiracy is either real or not confront it than to actually confront it and maybe have to take the temporary licks to save this party and the long-term [future] of this country.

McCarthy told Fox Business he was endorsing the New York representative Elise Stefanik to replace Cheney in a position in leadership. As conference chair, you have one of the most critical jobs as a messenger going forward.

Trump weighed in on Monday, issuing a statement in which he said: The House GOP has a massive opportunity to upgrade this week from warmonger Liz Cheney to gifted communicator Elise Stefanik.

The warmonger jibe was in part aimed at Cheneys father, the former vice-president Dick Cheney, one of the architects of the Iraq war.

We need someone in leadership who has experience flipping districts from blue to red as we approach the important 2022 midterms, Trump added, and thats Elise! She knows how to win, which is what we need!

Trump formally endorsed Stefanik last week. In congressional votes to recognize electoral college results, held in the immediate aftermath of the Capitol riot, Stefanik objected to results from Pennsylvania. She did not object to results from Arizona, as many other Republicans did.

Before the votes, she indicated plans to object to results in Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. No senator supported challenges to results from those states, however, so none were mounted.

Cheney is set to be replaced in a closed vote on Wednesday. On Sunday, Kinzinger also compared the trajectory of his party to the sinking of the Titanic, saying leaders were not acting responsibly.

Were like in the middle of this slow sink, he said. We have a band playing on the deck, telling everybody its fine, and meanwhile as Ive said, Donald Trump is running around trying to find womens clothing to get on the first lifeboat.

I think theres a few of us saying, Guys, this is not good, not just for the future of the party, but this is not good for the future of this country.

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Republican says party leader dismissed his warnings of Capitol violence - The Guardian

The Republican supermajority in West Virginias House of Delegates just got bigger.

Delegate Mick Bates, who had served as a Democrat, announced that he will switch to become a Republican.

I expect that this decision may disappoint and upset some, Bates, who represents people in the Beckley area, stated in an announcement about the party switch. I believe that a greater number will welcome it and see it as the right thing to do at the right time for the people I represent.

The number of Republicans in the House of Delegates now stands at 78.

There are now 22 Democrats in the chamber that used to be dominated by that party.

This is surprising and disappointing, said state Democratic Party Chairwoman Belinda Biafore, in an emailed statement of reaction.

It seems Delegate Bates has public service confused with self-service. Delegate Bates has propped himself up on Democratic ideals and his constituency put their faith in him. Hes turning his back on them. Its odd but telling that someone who is so outspoken against the majority party has decided to join them to benefit himself politically.

Republicans already had an enormous numbers advantage in the House of Delegates, coming out of last months election with 76 of the 100 seats. That was an 18-seat pickup for House Republicans.

Then in December, Delegate Jason Barrett announced he would switch his registration from Democrat to Republican.

With Bates now saying the same, House Speaker Roger Hanshaw, R-Clay, welcomed another member.

Mick has always been a pro-business Delegate, and we certainly welcome his credentials and his experience as a small business owner to the party, Hanshaw stated.

This is an unprecedented time for the House of Delegates, with the largest Republican majority the state has ever seen, and as we continue to do the work of making West Virginia the easy choice for people and businesses to call home, the Republican party will only continue to grow.

Bates changed his party affiliation to Republican at the Raleigh County Courthouse on Wednesday morning. He had served as a Democrat since being elected to the House of Delegates in 2014, when he defeated Republican incumbent Linda Sumner.

Bates competed for the role of House minority leader last year, but Doug Skaff of Kanawha County won the Democratic caucuss support for the role.

Shortly after that, when it was time to vote for the House speaker for this past regular session, Bates was the only Democrat to vote for Hanshaw rather than Skaff.

Bates had been the lead Democrat on the House Finance Committee, but he was not named to the committee at all after that.

Following his failed attempt to run for minority leader, Delegate Bates announced to members of our caucus that his future political plans meant a party switch. He did not believe that he could win as a Democrat, so he decided that he would leave the Democratic Party, Skaff stated today.

Delegate Bates must have decided that now is the right time for him to turn his back on the constituents who elected him to prioritize his future political ambitions. He is more focused on the next election than the next generation of West Virginians.

House Minority Whip Shawn Fluharty was also publicly critical of Bates.

Bates just served as Democratic Party House Caucus Chair. We went from 41 members to 23 under his leadership. Then he ran to be Minority Leader. Lost. Now hes switching parties. What a profile in courage, Fluharty, D-Ohio, wrote on Twitter.

Bates wrote in his statement that his decision is in line with many constituents in the district he has served.

I am far from the first person to make such a change and I will not be the last. Over the past 3 years there has been a 30 percent swing in registrations in Raleigh County from Democrat to Republican. The line often used, and attributed to President Ronald Reagan, is that I didnt leave the party, the party left me,' he stated.

The West Virginia Secretary of State now shows that Republicans outnumber Democrats in the state 433,287 to 408,572.

In Raleigh County, where Bates lives, the numbers are 18,668 Republicans to 15,272 Democrats.

The same month in 2017, Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the state 542,237 to 389,916. The numbers in Raleigh County at that time were 16,284 Republicans and 22,034 Democrats.

Bates wrote that as politics have become more nationalized, West Virginia has reflected that.

There used to be a difference between the way West Virginia Democrats and Washington Democrats were viewed. People no longer see that difference, he stated.

At a national level, the controlling interests and leadership of the Democratic party continue to pursue positions that alienate and anger voters in rural parts of the country and dont reflect the priorities, values or beliefs of the people in West Virginia. This is not changing and appears to be getting worse, not better.

Bates is a physical therapist and the owner and chief executive of Bodyworks as well as the president of Praxis Corp. He is a member and former chairman of the Raleigh County Chamber of Commerce, a former president and member of the Board of Directors of the West Virginia Physical Therapy Association and served on the West Virginia Workers Compensation Committee. Bates and his wife, Pamela, are the parents of four teenagers.

I have many friends that are registered Democrats and a number of independent friends, he wrote. I have an equal number of friends and supporters that are registered Republican. We are all West Virginians who need to work together to move this State forward and address its many problems.

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Republican supermajority in the West Virginia House grows by yet another - West Virginia MetroNews

Former Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeThe Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Republican reactions to Cheney's removal Flake: No greater offense than honesty in today's Republican Party Cheney set to be face of anti-Trump GOP MORE (R-Ariz.) is calling out GOP lawmakers for their plan to oust Rep. Liz CheneyElizabeth (Liz) Lynn CheneyOvernight Defense: Military sexual assault reform bill has votes to pass in Senate l First active duty service member arrested over Jan. 6 riot l Israeli troops attack Gaza Strip Cheney: Fox News has 'a particular obligation' to refute election fraud claims The Memo: What now for anti-Trump Republicans? MORE (R-Wyo.) from the partys leadership in the House, arguing that today there is no greater offense than honesty among Republicans.

On Wednesday, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) will most likely lose her leadership post within the House Republican Conference, not because she has been untruthful. Rather, she will lose her position because she is refusing to play her assigned role in propagating the 'big lie' that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald TrumpDonald TrumpProject Veritas surveilled government officials to expose anti-Trump sentiments: report Cheney: Fox News has 'a particular obligation' to refute election fraud claims The Memo: What now for anti-Trump Republicans? MORE, Flake wrote in an op-ed published in The Washington Post.

Cheney is more dedicated to the long-term health of our constitutional system than she is to assuaging the former presidents shattered ego, and for her integrity she may well pay with her career, he continued.

Flake added: No, this is not the plot of a movie set in an asylum but rather your contemporary Republican Party, where today there is no greater offense than honesty.

House Republicans are expected to meet behind closed doors on Wednesday morning and vote to remove Cheney from her role as the GOP conference chair, the third-ranking position in their leadership.

Every one of us who has sworn the oath must act to prevent the unraveling of our democracy. This is not about policy. This is not about partisanship. This is about our duty as Americans,"Cheneytold her colleagues in a floor speechlate Tuesday.

Flake, who represented Arizona in the upper chamber from 2013 to 2019, criticized some Republicans in the op-ed for a celebration of the unwise and the untrue, citing conspiracy theories that former President Obama was not born in the U.S. and more.

I had hoped that, over time, my Republican constituents would feel differently about the former president, or at least value a Republican who pushed back, and that I could stand for reelection in 2018 with a reasonable chance of surviving a Republican primary, Flake wrote.

It soon became apparent that Republican voters wanted someone who was all in with a president that I increasingly saw as a danger to the republic. That could not be me, so I spoke out instead and didnt stand for reelection, headded noting that history keeps the score, not Kevin McCarthyKevin McCarthyRoy to challenge Stefanik for Cheney's old position Stefanik shake-up jump-starts early jockeying for committee posts Why Cheney was toppled, and what it says about the GOP and Trump's claims MORE or Elise StefanikElise Marie StefanikThe Memo: What now for anti-Trump Republicans? Roy to challenge Stefanik for Cheney's old position Stefanik shake-up jump-starts early jockeying for committee posts MORE.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Sunday signaled his support publicly for the first time for Rep. Elise Stefaniks (R-N.Y.) bid to replace Chaney.

It is elementary to have to say this, but we did not become a great nation by believing or espousing nonsense, or by embracing lunacy, Flake wrote. And if my party continues down this path, we will not be fit to govern.

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Flake: No greater offense than honesty in today's Republican Party | TheHill - The Hill

Georgias new voting restrictions dominated headlines in March, for numerous reasons: It was one of the closest states in last years presidential election and the focus of former President Donald Trumps pressure campaign to get Republicans to overturn the results; the legislation was written in such a way as to have a disproportionate impact on voters of color; and the law inspired an unusual amount of backlash from corporate America, even spurring Major League Baseball to move its All-Star Game out of the state.

But Georgia is hardly the only state thats made it harder to vote this year. Republican lawmakers have now enacted new voting restrictions in a total of 11 states Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Utah and Wyoming.

As we wrote in March, Republican state legislators inspired by Trumps baseless claims of voter fraud have introduced hundreds of bills this year that would make it harder to vote. Based on the latest data from the Brennan Center for Justice and our own research, at least 404 voting-restriction bills have now been introduced in 48 state legislatures. Whats more, nearly 90 percent of them were sponsored primarily or entirely by Republicans.

Of course, not all of those bills will pass. Of those 404 bills, we count 179 that are already dead either because they were voted down or werent passed before a key deadline. Another 137 bills have not yet progressed beyond the committee stage, and at this point, that inaction bodes poorly for their chances of passage. On the other hand, 63 bills are still worth watching, having passed at least one step of the legislative process (with those that have passed two chambers closer to passage than those that have just passed committee). That leaves 25 bills that are already law (back in March, this number was only six); four states have even enacted multiple such laws.

The highest-profile voting restriction that has been enacted since Georgias is Senate Bill 90 in Florida. Among other things, the law requires proof of identity for absentee voting, restricts ballot drop boxes to early-voting sites or election offices (where they can only be used if a staff member is physically present), limits how many absentee ballots a person can deliver for non-family members, and makes absentee-ballot requests good for only one election cycle (previously, they were good for two cycles). Critics also fear that the law could allow Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis to stack local election boards with political cronies and intimidate campaigns from giving food and water to voters within 150 feet of a polling place (based on the laws expanded definition of vote solicitation). DeSantis also signed the bill last Thursday at a signing ceremony that was closed to all members of the press except Fox News, contributing to the partisan acrimony over the legislation.

Of course, as in Georgia, its not clear whether Floridas new law will actually boost Republicans chances of winning elections in the perennially competitive state. By making it less easy to vote absentee, the law discourages a voting method that was used overwhelmingly by Democrats in 2020 but was also a source of Republican strength in elections before that.

Other new voting restrictions havent gotten as much attention as Florida and Georgia, but they could still affect voting for millions of people and underscore just how widespread Republicans push to tighten voting laws has been.

In less than five months, 25 new voting restrictions have already been enacted in 2021. Thats a notable uptick from recent years: The Brennan Center tracked only 14 voting restrictions that became law in 2019 and 2020 combined. Its likely, too, that that number will continue to grow. Republicans are expected to add even more laws restricting voting access to the books in the coming months with an omnibus bill in Texas likely to be the next voting restriction to experience the glare of the national spotlight. Stay tuned as we continue to track these bills and explore their implications.

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Where Republicans Have Made It Harder To Vote (So Far) - FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Were still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls too seriously. But with a number of elections underway in 2021, not to mention a number of special elections, its worth kicking off the conversation around what we do and dont know about Republicans and Democrats odds headed into the midterms.

Lets start big picture. The longstanding conventional wisdom is that midterm elections generally go well for the party thats not in the White House. Case in point: Since 1946, the presidents party has lost, on average, 27 House seats.

What are our initial thoughts? Is the starting assumption that Republicans should have a good year in 2022?

alex (Alex Samuels, politics reporter): Yes, and heres why: 2022 will be the first federal election after the House map(s) are redrawn. And because Democrats fell short of their 2020 expectations in state legislative races, Republicans have the opportunity to redraw congressional maps that are much more clearly in their favor. On top of that, Republicans are already campaigning on the cost and magnitude of President Bidens policy plans to inspire a backlash from voters.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Simply put, as that chart above shows, the expectation is that Democrats, as the party in the White House, will lose seats in the House.

And because Democrats have such a narrow lead in that chamber, that would mean the GOP is favored to take it. Now, because only one-third of the Senate is up every two years, its not a truly national election the way the House is, so the story there is more complicated.

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, elections analyst): What they said!

alex: lol

That said, I think Democrats might find some success campaigning on Bidens accomplishments from his first 100 days: the vaccine rollout and the coronavirus stimulus funding, specifically. But that might not be enough to save Democrats from a midterm shellacking.

nrakich: Yeah, Democrats are obviously hoping they can buck the trend and point to exceptions like Republicans gaining seats in 2002 as evidence that its possible. But George W. Bush was very popular in 2002 in the aftermath of 9/11: According to a retrospective FiveThirtyEight average of polls at the time, he had a 62 percent approval rating and 29 percent disapproval rating on Election Day 2002.

And in this era of polarization where presidential approval ratings are stuck in a very narrow band its hard to imagine Biden ever reaching that level of popularity.

sarah: Were getting ahead of ourselves with the Senate, Geoffrey! Well talk about that more in a minute. But it sounds like our starting point is that 2022 should, in theory, favor Republicans?

That makes sense given the historical record, but to push back on that just a little there are instances when the presidents party didnt do that poorly. For instance, in 1990, when George H.W. Bush was president, Republicans lost eight seats in the House and one seat in the Senate which, as Politifact wrote, was a setback but not exactly a shellacking. Similarly, in 1998, when Bill Clinton was president, Democrats actually picked up five seats in the House and broke even in the Senate. Republicans still controlled both chambers, but the fact that Democrats didnt really lose ground was notable nonetheless.

So is it possible that Democrats wont have that bad of a year?

geoffrey.skelley: As the COVID-19 pandemic recedes, Biden and his team are clearly banking on an economic revival that will buoy his ratings and Democratic fortunes in the midterm.

After all, the times when the presidents party avoided losing much ground in the House or even gained a little came when the incumbent president was very popular. Its going to be hard, as Nathaniel said, for Biden to be at or above 60 percent approval when things are so polarized hes at about 54 percent right now, according to FiveThirtyEights tracker but if he can hang out above 50 percent, that could help Democrats minimize their losses in the House.

alex: And at this point, Democrats seem to be more excited than Republicans about voting in the midterms, per Morning Consult. Their April poll found that 81 percent of Democrats were at least somewhat enthusiastic about voting in the 2022 midterms, compared to 72 percent of Republicans. So not a huge difference, but still interesting.

sarah: What about midterm turnout more broadly? Is there any reason to think that Republicans or Democrats hold an advantage here?

geoffrey.skelley: As a general rule, midterm elections are influenced a lot by what political scientists call differential turnout; that is, your average member of the party thats not in the White House is more likely to turn out than the average member of the presidents party.

In other words, we can probably expect Republican turnout to be up compared to 2018, and Democratic turnout to be down. However, how much more or less is the real question.

nrakich: Some analysts point to the fact that college-educated white voters, who are pretty reliable midterm voters, used to vote Republican but now vote Democratic. And while its true that Democrats have made gains with these voters in recent elections, I think its overstating things to say that will turn midterms into Democratic-friendly environments.

According to a recent report by the Democratic data firm Catalist, college-educated white voters only voted for Biden 54 percent to 46 percent (based on the two-party vote). In other words, theyre still a swing demographic, not part of the Democratic base (yet).

sarah: That certainly seems to be the big question heading into 2022, Nathaniel.

geoffrey.skelley: We shouldnt discount the role persuasion plays in midterm elections, either. Catalists 2018 midterm analysis speaking of them noted that Democrats won over some voters in 2018 who leaned Republican in 2016.

So its possible that if conditions are relatively favorable for Democrats, that might persuade some voters to stick with them and turn out. Alternatively, the GOP might be able to win over some Biden voters if they dont feel good about the status quo.

sarah: What else should we be factoring in to understand the national environment?

nrakich: The two indicators I always look at are polls of the generic congressional ballot (in other words, polls that ask, Would you vote for a Democrat or Republican for Congress?) and special election results (specifically, how much they deviate from a districts base partisanship).

And right now, those indicators point to a neutral or slightly Democratic-leaning environment. We dont have a generic-ballot polling average yet, but the few polls we do have tend to put Democrats up by single digits.

My informal tracking of special election results so far about two dozen mostly legislative elections, so not a huge sample size shows that neither party is significantly overperforming its 2016 presidential performance.

But there is still plenty of time for the national environment to change. In the 2010 election cycle (which, of course, was a great one for Republicans), Republicans didnt take the lead in generic-ballot polling until December 2009.

sarah: But uh the generic ballot polls were really off in 2020. How should we factor that in when thinking about 2022?

As former FiveThirtyEighter Harry Enten argued back in April, we might read Democrats current lead in the generic ballot as a slight GOP advantage, given how much polls underestimated Republicans in 2020.

nrakich: Yeah, Sarah, I think its fair to mentally subtract a few points from Democrats on the generic ballot polls. That would put them right in line with the special-election results so far, which show a more neutral environment.

That said, the generic-ballot polls were spot on in 2018. Our average gave Democrats an 8.7-point lead on Election Day, and they won the national House popular vote by 8.6 points. And 2022, as a midterm year, has more in common with 2018 than 2020.

geoffrey.skelley: Thats right, generic ballot polls tend to be more accurate in midterm elections than in presidential ones.

FiveThirtyEights historical generic ballot polling average on Election Day vs. the actual national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, 1996 to 2020

FiveThirtyEights polling averages are calculated retroactively for years prior to 2018.

Sources: The Cook Political Report, Polls, U.S. House of Representatives

That said, even if its a somewhat neutral environment in 2022 perhaps a best-case scenario for Democrats an evenly divided national popular vote would likely produce a GOP House majority. Why? Even though Biden won the national popular vote by about 4.5 points in 2020, the median House seat only went for him by 2.4 points. Heading into 2022, that bias may only grow, considering that Republicans will draw new congressional lines in a lot more states than Democrats.

alex: Nathaniel has done a great job writing about this, but I think the new voting laws (both the restrictive ones and the expansive ones) should be a factor we examine, too.

While its hard to determine whether these bills will have some sort of partisan impact, its also very possible that young voters and voters of color have a bigger incentive to turn out to vote because of these bills.

nrakich: Yeah, Alex, itll be really interesting to see whether those laws do what they are ostensibly intended to do and depress Democratic turnout or whether they make Democrats more fired up to vote.

sarah: What about the Senate? Republicans must defend more seats than Democrats in 2022, but the Senate is often a more complicated story. Remember, the House experienced a blue wave in 2018, but the Senate actually got redder. Any sense of what to expect this year?

alex: Im less clear on Republicans prospects for taking back the Senate, but I am more inclined to say Democrats can hold onto their narrow majority there.

A piece from The Washington Post in March made the case that less than a dozen seats are really in play, and of those, there are more opportunities for Democratic pickups. For example, the North Carolina and Pennsylvania seats (both previously held by Republicans) might be easier grabs next year since their 2020 margins were so close.

And it could be hard for Republicans to flip the four Democratic seats that are considered competitive Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada. Biden won New Hampshire by 7 points last year! Nevada is also becoming more reliably blue (although it didnt move that much in 2020).

All thats to say, Democrats may really need to go all-in defending just two seats: Georgia (Sen. Raphael Warnocks seat) and Arizona (Sen. Mark Kellys seat).

nrakich: Yeah, this is a big caveat to all the doom and gloom for Democrats. While there is a clear trend of the presidents party losing seats in the House, the pattern isnt as consistent for the Senate.

The presidential partys performance in midterm elections, 1946-2018

2018 change includes the special election result for North Carolinas 9th Congressional District

Seat change calculated by how many seats the presidential party gained or lost based on the number of seats it held on Election Day. Seat vacancies were assigned to the previous party. Party switches after an election were not included in the calculations.

Source: BROOKINGS, GREG GIROUX, MICHAEL DUBIN, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, U.S. SENATE, UVA CENTER FOR POLITICS, VOTEVIEW.ORG

And the Class III Senate map (the class of senators who will be up for election in 2022) is arguably the most favorable one for Democrats, in terms of presenting opportunities to flip Republican-held seats. There are two Republican-held seats on the ballot in states that Biden carried (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), and no Democratic-held seats in states that Trump carried.

geoffrey.skelley: Yeah, the makeup of the Senate classes matters a great deal and which party is defending which seats. One reason the GOP gained seats in 2018 was because it was able to pick off Democrats in red states like Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. So its possible Democrats could find gains in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, or, if things really go their way, perhaps a state that Biden only lost narrowly like Florida or North Carolina.

But one problem for Democrats is that they dont have the same set of juicy targets the GOP did in 2018 with states like Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota clearly red states with Democratic senators. By contrast, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin only went for Biden by around 1 point, and there arent really any clearly blue states with Republican senators up in 2022 (in fact, Sen. Susan Collinss seat in Maine is the only other seat the GOP holds in a Democratic-leaning state, and she won reelection in 2020).

Democrats also hold an array of seats that wont be easy to defend, such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire. Its definitely plausible that Democrats successfully defend some of them, but defending all of them, or defending most of them while picking up Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, is a tall order.

sarah: Yeah, Democrats might not have their worst Senate map in 2022, but it will by no means be easy, and how they fare will have a lot to do with the national environment. And as we touched on earlier, Bidens overall approval rating will also make a big difference in Democrats midterm chances.

nrakich: Yeah, if the national environment is even a bit Republican-leaning, that could be enough to allow solid Republican recruits to flip even Nevada and New Hampshire. And then it wouldnt even matter if Democrats win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

One thing is for sure, though whichever party wins the Senate will have only a narrow majority, so I think were stuck in this era of moderates like Sens. Joe Manchin and Lisa Murkowski controlling every bills fate for at least a while longer.

sarah: Lets talk about big picture strategy, then, and where that leaves us moving forward. Its still early and far too easy to prescribe election narratives that arent grounded in anything, but one gambit the Republican Party seems to be making at this point is that attacking the Democratic Party for being too progressive or woke will help them win.

What do we make of that playbook headed into 2022? Likewise, as the party in charge, what are Democrats planning for?

alex: Im not sure if itll work, but there is a debate in political science right now about the extent to which race-based messaging reduces support for certain policy ideas. In fact, a recent study from Yale political scientists Micah English and Josh Kalla found that highlighting the benefits of progressive policies for racial minorities actually decreases support for them overall, and this was especially true for white respondents. To prove this, the pair conducted an online survey of six progressive policy ideas increasing the minimum wage to $15, forgiving $50,000 in student loan debt, affordable housing, the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, decriminalizing marijuana and erasing prior convictions and asked randomly assigned participants to read about them in either a neutral, race-based, class-based and race-plus-class frame. They found that the class framing was most successful in increasing support for policies across racial and political groups. So Im sure Republicans will try and use this to their advantage given their current emphasis on tackling cancel culture.

Read the rest here:

Will 2022 Be A Good Year For Republicans? - FiveThirtyEight

Hurd: Heres the secret sauce: EveryoneI dont care what country you come from, Latino, African Americanyou care about putting food on your table, a roof over your head, and making sure that the people you love are healthy and happy. When you talk about those issues, that's going to resonate.

Too often, we get caught up in the conversations going on on social media and cable news. When I went into these communities to do town halls, nobody brought up those issues on the chyron at the bottom of the newscast. They cared about making sure their kids were going to be able to be competitive and go to college. They wanted to make sure that the industry they're working in was going to survive. They cared about having good roads. They cared about border securityfor people who live on the border, its called public safety.

Green: In Texas, the state party didnt invest money in getting the census distributed until really late in the game. And at the national level, the Trump administration attempted to insert a citizenship question, which a lot of people thought was an effort to try to disincentivize Latinos from answering the survey. But if what youre saying is true, counting Latinos is potentially going to be part of Republican success in Texas, not a deficit. I wonder if you think the Republican Party hamstrung itself.

Hurd: Theres folks who believe that more people voting or engaged in civic society is going to be bad. If youre afraid of new voters, then to me that's a sign that you need to rethink your strategy.

Read: History will judge the complicit

Green: At the national level, do you think the Republican Party has done a good job of making it clear that it doesnt want to be mostly a white party?

Hurd: We have to be better. We cant be seen as being jerks, racists, misogynists, or homophobes. We oftentimes describe the Republican Party as only a handful of national figures. The Republican Party is the people who vote. We are the party thats going to help everybody move up the economic ladder. And that work is made more difficult by some individuals within the party.

Green: Are you frustrated that the oxygen gets sucked up by people like Lauren Boebert and Marjorie Taylor Greene, who have become these figureheads for what the new Republican Party looks like?

Hurd: Yes, when oxygen on these national conversations gets sucked up on things, its hard, because we are in a new cold war with the Chinese government. Their GDP is going to be larger than the United States of Americas. And they have made it clear that they are trying to surpass the United States as a sole hegemon in the world. These are the conversations that we should be having on a national scale.

We have some serious, generationally defining challenges that we have to address, and these politics are getting in the way of having real discourse. Thats where I get frustrated.

Read the original:

Will Hurd on the Future of the Republican Party - The Atlantic