Category Archives: Putin

Russian central bank chair says effect of sanctions is unclear

The head of Russia's central bank says it's impossible to draw conclusions on the impact of Western sanctions at this stage.

"So far, the effects of the sanctions are less acute than we feared. This also shows the ability of companies to adapt. But it is premature to say that the full effect of the sanctions has manifested itself," Elvira Nabiullina, chair of the Central Bank of Russia, said at a briefing, at which she also announced the lowering of interest rates to their prewar levels.

"The situation is uncertain, the situation is developing and the situation of the structural restructuring of our economy, of its capacity to rebuild, is also a process, so it's premature to draw any conclusions here," Nabiullina said.

She also said Moscow was preparing a possible legal challenge against E.U. sanctions against Russia's central securities depository and measures freezing the settlement of ruble transactions by its E.U.-based counterparts. She did not provide details, but admitted such a challenge "would not be easy."

Associated Press

Former U.S. President Barack Obama speaks at the Copenhagen Democracy Summit in the Skuespilhuset in Copenhagen, Denmark June 10, 2022.

Philip Davali | Ritzau Scanpix | via Reuters

Former U.S. President Barack Obama urged global leaders to sustain support for Ukraine.

"Our support for Ukraine must remain strong, steadfast and sustained until this conflict reaches a resolution," Obama said during an address at the annual Copenhagen Democracy Summit, applauding the Ukrainian people's "historic resistance to Russian aggression."

"They've united to defend not just their sovereignty, but their democratic identity, and their actions have rallied much of the world behind the values of self-determination and human dignity," Obama said.

"Because of the courage and because of this solidarity on display, Vladimir Putin is failing to achieve his aims inside of Ukraine and beyond ... Meanwhile, Russia is cut off from resources and revenue, and many of its best and brightest have left, a blow to its present, but also to its future," he added.

Amanda Macias

British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shake hands after a meeting, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine June 10, 2022.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service | Reuters

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a previously unannounced visit to Kyiv.

The U.K. defense ministry says Wallace also held talks with his Ukrainian counterpart, Oleksii Reznikov, during the two-day visit this week.

It said Wallace told Zelenskyy that "U.K. support will continue to meet Ukraine's needs as the conflict enters a different phase."

Britain has been one of the biggest donors of military equipment to Ukraine and recently agreed to send rocket launch systems that can target Russian artillery positions in eastern Ukraine.

Western officials say the conflict is becoming a grinding slow-motion war as Russian forces inch forward in their offensive to capture Ukaine's eastern industrial heartland.

Associated Press

People stand amid newly-made graves at a cemetery in the course of Ukraine-Russia conflict in the settlement of Staryi Krym outside Mariupol, Ukraine May 22, 2022.

Alexander Ermochenko | Reuters

The United Nations has confirmed 4,339 civilian deaths and 5,246 injuries in Ukraine since Russia invaded its ex-Soviet neighbor on Feb. 24.

The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights said the death toll in Ukraine is likely higher, because the armed conflict can delay fatality reports.

The international organization said most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, as well as missiles and airstrikes.

Amanda Macias

People queue for food donated by the World Central Kitchen charity on May 24, 2022 in Borodianka, Ukraine. As Russia concentrates its attack on the east and south of the country, residents of the Kyiv region are returning to assess the war's toll on their communities.

Christopher Furlong | Getty Images

Spanish celebrity chef and restaurateur Jose Andres gave U.S. lawmakers an update on the worsening food crisis inside Ukraine.

Speaking via video conference before the House subcommittee on national security, the two-star Michelin chef said that Russian vessels blocking Ukraine's ports will soon trigger a global food shortage crisis.

"I've seen how Russia in a way, very directly is using this war to put extra pressure around the world by creating famines in places that we should not have," said Andres, who founded the World Central Kitchen, a humanitarian organization dedicated to feeding vulnerable communities.

Andres told lawmakers that so far, his organization has distributed more than 40 million meals to more than 475 cities near and around Ukraine.

"We are working with almost 500 restaurants, food trucks and catering companies in eight countries," he said, adding that his organization has set up 42 warehouses to run operations.

"More than 30,000 bags a day are distributed on top of the hot meals," he said.

Amanda Macias

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin attends a meeting with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine April 24, 2022.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service | Reuters

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Chinese Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe as Washington repeatedly warns Beijing, the world's second-largest economy, not to help Russia.

Austin told Wei that the U.S. "is watching the situation very carefully and strongly discouraged China from providing material support to Russia for its war in Ukraine," a senior U.S. Defense official told reporters in Singapore traveling with the Pentagon chief.

The two last spoke in April in what was their first known call since Austin ascended to the top office in the Pentagon.

Amanda Macias

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that the two Britons and one Moroccan sentenced to death on Thursday had committed crimes in the so-called Donetsk People's Republic.

The three men Aiden Aslin, Shaun Pinner and Saaudun Brahim fought alongside Ukrainian forces and surrendered to Russian forces weeks ago. They have a month to appeal the decision by the pro-Russia rebel court.

"The processes you mentioned are based on the legislation of the [self-proclaimed] Donetsk People's Republic, because the crimes we are talking about were committed on the territory of the DPR," Lavrov said of the case.

"Everything else is the subject of speculation. I would not want to be getting involved with the work of the judicial and law enforcement system of the Donetsk People's Republic," he added.

The DPR is internationally recognized as part of Ukraine and much of it remains under Ukrainian control.

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has called the sentencing a "sham judgment with absolutely no legitimacy."

Sam Meredith

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives an interview to Rossiya-1 TV channel in Sochi, Russia June 3, 2022.

Mikhail Klimentyev | Sputnik | Reuters

Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has responded to Putin's remarks in which Russia's leader appeared to hint at further invasions and likened himself to 18th-century czar Peter the Great.

Podolyak said via Twitter that Putin's comments show why it is ineffective to discuss how Russia is "saving face" over its invasion of Ukraine, and instead should prompt a discussion over Russia's "immediate de-imperialization."

Sam Meredith

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said: "When we impose sanctions, then we have to make sure that those sanctions are hurting more those against whom we impose the sanctions than ourselves."

Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto says it is not possible for the European Union to impose a Russian gas embargo in its next package of sanctions.

Speaking to CNBC's Charlotte Reed on the sidelines of the OECD's Ministerial Council Meeting in Paris, Szijjarto said: "When we impose sanctions, then we have to make sure that those sanctions are hurting more those against whom we impose the sanctions than ourselves."

"We have to have a very clear position on the war, which we do have, we condemn Russia for this military aggression. We stand with Ukraine. But we have to take into consideration reality as well," he added.

Szijjarto said Russia currently supplies 65% of Hungary's oil demand and 85% of its gas supplies, adding that a lack of available infrastructure means it's not possible for the landlocked European country to swiftly reduce its reliance on Russian hydrocarbons.

The EU agreed late last month to impose a partial embargo on Russian crude in a bid to cripple President Vladimir Putin's war machine. The watered-down deal covers Russian oil brought into the bloc by sea, with an exemption carved out for imports delivered by pipeline.

Szijjarto spoke of his frustration that Hungary had been portrayed as a country reluctant to punish Russia's war in Ukraine after the country opposed a total ban on Russian oil.

When asked about the prospect of the EU targeting Russian gas exports in its next round of sanctions, Szijjarto said: "No, it's impossible."

"If you're not able to import gas from Russia, then the country stops, economy stops, we cannot heat the houses, we cannot run the economy. Our question is who can offer a solution?" he added.

Sam Meredith

A Ukrainian soldier on a destroyed Russian tank on the frontline in Luhansk oblast, Ukraine, on June 09, 2022.

Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Serhiy Haidai, governor of the eastern Luhansk province, has said fierce street fighting continues in Severodonetsk as Russian forces battle for control of the city.

"The whole free Luhansk region came under heavy shelling," Haidai said via Telegram, according to a translation.

"Fierce street fights continue in Severodonetsk. We are exhausting the enemy," he added.

Sam Meredith

A woman cooks in the yard of a house in the city of Mariupol on June 4, 2022, amid the ongoing Russian military action in Ukraine.

Stringer | AFP | Getty Images

Russia is struggling to provide basic public services to the population in Russian-occupied territories, with the ruined seaside city of Mariupol at risk of a major cholera outbreak, according to the U.K.'s Ministry of Defense.

"Access to safe drinking water has been inconsistent, while major disruption to telephone and internet services continues. There is likely a critical shortage of medicines in Kherson, while Mariupol is at risk of a major cholera outbreak," the ministry said via Twitter.

"Isolated cases of cholera have been reported since May. Ukraine suffered a major cholera epidemic in 1995, and has experienced minor outbreaks since, especially around the Azov Sea coast which includes Mariupol," it added. "Medical services in Mariupol are likely already near collapse: a major cholera outbreak in Mariupol will exacerbate this further."

Sam Meredith

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy visits the positions of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut city and Lysychansk district, Ukraine, on June 5, 2022.

Ukrainian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the country's forces are holding on to cities in the Donbas region despite sustained pressure from Russian troops.

The Donbas region refers to the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in the easternmost part of Ukraine. It is a major strategic, political and economic target for the Kremlin.

"Frontlines situation for the day has not seen any significant changes. Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk and other cities in Donbas, which the occupiers now consider key targets, are holding on," Zelenskyy said in an evening address to the nation, according to a translation.

"We have a certain positive [development] in the Zaporizhia region, where it is possible to thwart the plans of the occupiers. We are gradually moving forward in the Kharkiv region, liberating our land. We keep defense in the Mykolaiv direction."

Sam Meredith

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets young entrepreneurs in Moscow on June 9, 2022.

Mikhail Metzel | Afp | Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin has appeared to hint at further territorial expansion, in remarks likely to set off alarm bells.

"It's impossible do you understand? impossible to build a fence around a country like Russia. And we do not intend to build that fence," Putin said at a meeting with young entrepreneurs in Moscow, according to Sky News.

It came as the Russia leader compared himself to Peter the Great on the 350th anniversary of the czar's birth. Putin sought to draw a parallel between the Kremlin's raging onslaught in Ukraine and the former Russian monarch's conquest of the Baltic coast during a war against Sweden in the 18th century.

"When he [Peter the Great] founded the new capital, none of the European countries recognized the territory as Russian. They all recognized it as Swedish territory. The Slavs together with the Finno-Ugric peoples had always lived there, moreover, this territory had been under the control of the Russian state. Same going towards the west Narva and his first expeditions," Putin said, according to a translation.

"Why did he go there? He went there to take it back and strengthen it, that's what he was doing. Well, it seems it has also fallen to us to take back and strengthen [territories], and if we take these basic values as fundamental to our existence, we will prevail in solving the issues we are facing," he added.

Sam Meredith

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses South Korean parliament via video link, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kyiv, Ukraine April 11, 2022.

Ukrainian Presidential Press Service | Reuters

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to French President Emmanuel Macron, and they discussed Kyiv's entry into the European Union amid Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.

In April, Zelenskyy completed the first step in obtaining European Union membership for Ukraine by submitting a lengthy questionnaire.

The two leaders also discussed the latest developments on the ground and additional French security assistance for Ukraine, according to an Elysee Palace readout of the call.

Amanda Macias

Thu, Jun 9 20224:10 PM EDT

A Mirage 2000-5F jet fighter takes off from Luxeuil-Saint Sauveur air-base 116, in Saint-Sauveur, eastern France, on March 13, 2022.

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Putin appears to hint at further invasions; Zelenskyy says Ukrainian forces holding on in the Donbas - CNBC

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on economic issues on Wednesday. (Getty)

Western intelligence officials believe Vladimir Putin could become medically incapacitated "within three-six months", a former spy has claimed.

Former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele said the CIA and other agencies believe the Russian President could be ousted in the coming months following his disastrous invasion of Ukraine.

He claimed that while one of the factors would be his failing health, it would also depend on what happened in Ukraine and if Russia suffered more substantial casualties.

Steele told BBC Radio 4s The World at One: I dont see him (Putin) being in power for more than three-six months from now.

Former MI6 agent Christopher Steele. (Getty)

There are signs his health is failing for a start which will be a factor in this.

And if what were being told by the CIA and others and our own sources is true then it looks as though he could become incapacitated over that sort of period of time.

Steele added: This is a strongman regime where people have to have fear of the leader and if the leader is incapacitated medically then there will be a move against him, im sure.

Watch: Volodymyr Zelensky claims 31,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine

The former MI6 operative said his replacement was unlikely to be any more liberal than Putin, but would be someone who had a vested interest in getting out of the war.

He said: I dont think it would mean good relations with the West but at least we would be able to have a negotiation where they could claim they hadnt lost face because of the blame they would be putting on the previous leader.

In April, questions about Putin's health increased when a video from February showed him shaking uncontrollably during a meeting with Aleksandr Lukashenko, the president of Belarus.

That followed a report by a Russian investigative journalism group that Putin had been visited by a cancer surgeon dozens of times over a four-year period.

Last month a Ukrainian intelligence official claimed the Russian leader had cancer but won't "die tomorrow".

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Moscow has not formally responded to rumours about Putin's health. However, in November 2020, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected widely reported claims that the Russian president had Parkinson's disease and was poised to quit.

Its absolute nonsense, Peskov said. Everything is fine with the president.

It was reported last month that Putin was able to survive an assassination attempt two months ago, though Western officials are reportedly skeptical of the claim.

Read more: Russia draws closer to capture of Ukraine's Donbas region

Ukrainian soldiers walk as seeds burn in grain silos shelled repeatedly in the Donetsk region. (Reuters)

More than three months after launching a war against its heavily outnumbered and outgunned neighbour, Russia has withdrawn from much of northern Ukraine to refocus on the east.

Thousands of people have been killed in Ukraine and millions more displaced since the beginning of the war, which Moscow calls a "special military operation" to "denazify" its neighbour.

Ukraine and its Western allies call this a baseless pretext for a war to seize territory.

Steele was behind the so-called Steele dossier, published by BuzzFeed in January 2017, about alleged links between former US president Donald Trump and Russia in the run-up to the 2016 US presidential election campaign.

Continued here:

Sick Putin could be incapacitated within months and then toppled as leader, Western spy claims - Yahoo News

Angela Merkel has said she feels no regrets for her handling of Vladimir Putin during her time in power, arguing that Russias president would have perceived a 2008 Nato membership plan for Ukraine that was blocked by her government as a declaration of war.

The former German chancellor also claimed that an oligarch-run and democratically immature Ukraine would have been less prepared for an invasion then than it is now.

I would feel very bad if I had said: Theres no point talking to that man [Putin], Merkel said in an onstage interview at the Berliner Ensemble theatre on Tuesday night her first public appearance since leaving office half a year ago.

It is a great tragedy that it didnt work, but I dont blame myself for trying, she added in an unusually frank answer from a politician who rarely spoke freely while in office.

Asked about whether she regretted opposing the US-led membership action plan for Ukraine and Georgia in 2008, Merkel said: Ukraine was not the country that we know now. It was a Ukraine that was very split even the reformist forces [Yulia] Tymoshenko and [Viktor] Yushchenko were very at odds. That means it was not a country whose democracy was inwardly strengthened. She said Ukraine at the time was ruled by oligarchs.

From the Russian presidents perspective, it was a declaration of war. While she didnt share Putins perspective, Merkel said she knew how he thought and didnt want to provoke it further.

She claimed to have blocked Ukraines route to membership of the military alliance with the countrys best interests at heart. You cannot become a member of Nato from one day to the next, Merkel said. Its a process, and during this process I knew Putin would have done something to Ukraine that would not have been good for it.

The Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015 were signed by then Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko to reach a political settlement in east Ukraine, but have since been criticised for forcing concessions while the country was militarily on the back foot.

Merkel defended the accords, saying they bought Ukraine time. It calmed down the matter and bought Ukraine time to develop into the country that it has become now.

She praised president Volodymyr Zelenskiy for his wartime leadership, saying he represented a new Ukraine.

The interview with Der Spiegel journalist Alexander Osang began with Merkel talking about how she had spent her first weeks out of office going for solitary walks by the Baltic Sea, wearing a hoodie so as not to be recognised by passersby, and listening to an audiobook of William Shakespeares Macbeth.

But the conversation inevitably turned to the war in Ukraine, and whether Germanys alleged leniency towards the Kremlin had emboldened Putin. Merkel said she felt the geopolitical problems created by the collapse of the Soviet Union had been present throughout her 16 years in power. It wasnt possible to properly end the cold war the Russia question always remained.

Merkel said she had started to take seriously the possibility of a looming invasion in her last few weeks in office, when she attended the G20 summit in Rome while Olaf Scholzs successor government was still in the process of being formed.

There were hints and we talked about it a lot, the 67-year-old said. I realised that Putin had finished with the Minsk process.

While Merkel condemned Russias war of aggression in clear terms, she also seemed to suggest some blame needed to be apportioned to the west.

What happened is a great mistake on Russias behalf an objective break with all rules of international law that allow us to coexist in Europe in peace. If we started to go through one century after another arguing which territory belongs to whom, then we would be at war non-stop.

I dont share the opinion of Mr Putin, to make that very clear. But we didnt manage to create a security architecture that could have prevented this [war in Ukraine]. And we should think about that too.

She rejected the criticism that Germany under her leadership had fallen for an illusion that a militarily aggressive Russia could be democratised by expanding trade links with the west.

I didnt believe that Putin could be changed through trade, Merkel said. But she said her belief was that if political cooperation was impossible, it was sensible to at least have some economic connections with Moscow.

Merkels defence of expanding economic ties with Russia seemed at odds with her claiming to have warned other politicians that Putin felt animosity towards the entire western model of democracy, and that he wanted to destroy Europe.

The former leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) conceded that European countries had failed to spend sufficiently on their militaries, even though she rejected criticism that the German army had fallen into disarray under her watch.

What should we have enforced more strongly? she asked rhetorically when reviewing the decisions of her last two terms in office. It [the military] is the only language that Putin understands. He saw that we, and not just Germany but others too, no longer had the strike power of the cold war.

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No regrets over handling of Vladimir Putin, says Angela Merkel - The Guardian

Ukraine must win. Russia must lose. It's really that simple.

So, Let's first stipulate that you agree with that end goal, as has everyone from U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

To embrace anything less would be immoral, set a historical precedent with catastrophic costs, and unravel what remains of our fraying international order of rules and institutions.

President Biden laid out the argument clearly in his New York Times op-ed this week. His words should be read closely by all members of his administration and NATO allies who are still acting too tentatively in providing Ukraine the weaponry, and the freedom of action in using it, to ensure Ukraine's victory.

"Standing by Ukraine in its hour of need is not just the right thing to do," wrote President Biden. "It is in our vital national interests to ensure a peaceful and stable Europe and to make clear that might does not make right. If Russia does not pay a heavy price for its actions, it will send a message to other would-be aggressors that they too can seize territory and subjugate countries And it would mark the end of the rules-based international order and open the door to aggression elsewhere, with catastrophic consequences the world over."

In short, we must stop Russian President Vladimir Putin now to ensure the rule-of-the-jungle doesn't replace the rule-of-law.

Why write all this now, as Putin's war in Ukraine passes its hundredth day?Most simply, it's because Putin is showing grinding gains after shifting tactics in response to Ukraine's unexpected victories and resilience, and Russian troops' heavy losses and abysmal performance in the war's early stages.

Putin's brutal new approach is to pulverize Ukrainian population centers in eastern and southern Ukraine with stand-off weapons, thus emptying them of their people through death or flight, with less risk to his own troops, replicating the brutal tactics he deployed in Syria. Once these cities and towns are drained of their humanity, his troops can then "liberate" the rubble, seize the territory, and position Russia for the most advantageous peace deal possible, or a further offensive.

At the same time, Putin has been striking at Ukraine economically by blockading its grain exports and either destroying or stealing its available supplies. Though Putin continues to choke on tough sanctions against him, he is willing to risk starvation elsewhere while wagering that he can outlast Western support for Kyiv through upcoming election cycles and other democratic distractions, such as the recent U.S. school gun shootings and Supreme Court battles.

There is a way, however, to counter Putin's new tactics. It will require the newly united West and its Asian partners to grow even more determined, creative, and proactive through a combined military, economic and public relations offensive that would again put Putin on his back feet.

The aim should not be to ensure a stalemate, which has allowed Putin to take 20% of Ukrainian territory, nor pressure Ukraine into a self-defeating peace agreement, but rather to give Ukraine the means to retake territory through a counteroffensive perhaps most importantly at the strategic southern Ukrainian city of Kherson which would ensure access to Odessa and to the Black Sea now and in any eventual peace agreement.

Most important is for Ukraine's potentially fatigued supporters, and even for those countries still sitting on the fence, not to lose sight of the barbarity of Putin's atrocities and thus the moral responsibility to oppose them.

"It's extremely important that we don't forget the brutality," Jens Stoltenberg, NATO's secretary general, told the Atlantic's Tom McTague in the most emotional of terms. "Of course, it is emotional. This is about people being killed; it's about atrocities; it's about children, women being raped, children being killed."

With that in mind, it's flat wrong for the U.S. or any arms supplier to limit Ukrainian fire to hitting only Russian targets on Ukrainian soil. In his otherwise excellent op-ed, Biden wrote, "We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders. We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia."

Think about that for a moment.If someone is killing your family members by shooting across a fence from your neighbor's yard, what good is a weapon that can only shoot as far as your side of the fence? If you don't take out the shooter, the killing continues. It's this kind of self-defeating restraint that makes Putin so confident he can win through attrition.

At the same time, the collective West, working closely with Turkey, needs to open Ukraine's Black Sea ports, particularly at Odessa, to address a Putin-generated global food crisis and enable Ukraine to sell the 28 million tons of grain it has in storage.

For justification, one can call upon the Montreux Convention of 1936 which regulates traffic through the Black Sea and guarantees "complete freedom" of passage for civilian vessels.

Said David Beasley, executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, "Failure to open those ports in Odessa region will be a declaration of war on global food security."

Historians point to the Winter War between the Soviet Union and Finland in 1939-1940 to demonstrate that a smaller but more determined country with less military strength can outlast Moscow and retain its sovereignty.

What's true is that Moscow then, despite overwhelming strength in tanks and aircraft, suffered severe losses and made few gains initially following their invasion in November 1939, three months after the outbreak of World War II.

Finland held off Soviet forces for more than two months, inflicting substantial losses before the Soviet Union adopted different tactics, and overcame Finnish defenses in February. Finland reached a peace deal in March 1940 that ceded 9% of its territory to the Soviet Union. Though Moscow's reputation suffered, and it was removed from the League of Nations, it came away with more territory than it had initially demanded.

On the negative side, Putin is every bit as determined as Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin, and shares Stalin's utter indifference to casualties and human suffering.

On the positive side, Ukraine is receiving dramatically more outside support than Finland did at the time.

Yet without even more Western resolve, Putin can still win, and Ukraine can still lose. Ukraine and the West need to show Putin a dead end and not an off-ramp.

Frederick Kempeis the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.

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Op-ed: We must stop Putin in Ukraine before the rule-of-law is replaced by the rule-of-the-jungle - CNBC

Smoke hangs low over Europes skies. Most rises from pulverised Ukrainian cities, ruined by Russian artillery. Some, however, emanates from the ceaseless swirl of rumours about Vladimir Putins health. If there is smoke, does fire necessarily follow? What is gained by speculating about the dictators health? What might his wellbeing say about his decision to invade Ukraine and subsequent conduct of war? And what might it reveal about our own beliefs?

Todays whispers have two sources. The first is Putins dramatically changed appearance. As recently as five years ago, his face was lean and ruddy: past its best, but still passable for the staging of photos that depicted his impeccable machismo. Photos from this year tell a different story: Putins face is now grotesquely bloated. The second is a meeting between the Russian leader and his Defence Minister, Sergey Shoigu, on 21 April. The footage, which has been analysed as though it were a lost Zapruder tape, appears to show Putin gripping the table in an apparent attempt to remain upright.

Some believe Putins physical transformation is the result of an overzealous commitment to fillers or botox, perhaps inspired by his friend Silvio Berlusconi. Others contend that it is simply the normal ageing process of a man now nudging 70. But undoubtedly the loudest voices belong to those who believe Putin is seriously ill.

According to an exclusive report in Newsweek, American intelligence has concluded that Putin was treated for advanced cancer in April. His health is apparently the subject of active discussion inside the Biden administration. Students of the Shoigu meeting are convinced Putin has Parkinsons Disease. An anonymous FSB officer has claimed that Putin has been diagnosed with an aggressive liver cancer and has just three years to live. Ukraines Defence Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov, meanwhile, has trumped them all, asserting that Putin in fact has several serious illnesses. So loud have the whispers become that Shoigu himself recently denied them.

Many claim that Putins decision to invade was itself a sign of illness. Barely 100 days old, the war has come at such a catastrophic price in blood, treasure and prestige that surely it could only have been the product of an ailing mind, or one which no longer cares about the future? Perhaps. But the Kremlins strategic blunders are much better explained by the fact that Putin has built a regime where frank and fearless advice is a career-limiting move, and toadies get ahead.

To put it plainly, lots of people want Vladimir Putin dead.

In truth, it is impossible to make a firm judgement about Putins health because reliableintelligence about the Kremlin is in short supply. Remember that the vast majority of credentialled analysts greatly overestimated Russias military strength prior to its invasion of Ukraine. Earlier than that, key details about Putins private life and regime were kept under tight wraps. Journalists and dissidents who attempt to shed light on the regimes inner workings are murdered with impunity. Whatever credible intelligence remained has largely evaporated as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and Russias diplomatic isolation since 24 February invasion.

But serious analysts, regardless of their proximity to power, should still be preparing for a scenario where Putin is ill. Why? Because even if illness is a poor explanation for the errors Putin has committed to date, it may inform the future.

In the near term, Kyiv and its allies cannot dismiss the possibility that an ailing Putin will continue to make irrational decisions. Perhaps he will become even more indifferent to the loss of Russian and Ukrainian life. Or, knowing he will not be alive in the world that follows, he may ignore the usual principles governing the use of nuclear weapons. It is difficult to deal with a madman or a sick man with nothing to lose.

Looking further ahead, provisionally accepting the hypothesis that Putin is indeed ill will help the West prepare for the political reverberations his death will cause in Russia. Whether Putin dies in six months, three years, or clings to life and power for another decade will have major implications for the sort of country Russia will be in a generation. The sooner he dies, the higher the variance of military outcomes in Ukraine and political outcomes at home. The longer he remains, the more likely the consolidation of his despotic political order, Russias continued isolation from the west, and its search for insalubrious allies.

To put it plainly, lots of people want Vladimir Putin dead. Partly, this stems from an understandable desire for revenge. But such a wish reflects our lack of understanding or influence over how the war he started will end.

Putins health is an important factor in how the war plays out. Whether it is delivered by an assassins pistol or by his Maker, his death will cause rejoicing and chaos in near-equal measure. In the meantime, just as we must guard against misinformation regardless of its source, we should also be alert to wishful thinking and motivated reasoning. Beware of anyone who has pivoted smoothly from amateur epidemiology, to geopolitics, to faraway oncology.

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Is Vladimir Putin sick? | The Interpreter - The Interpreter

Destroyed Russian tanks and military vehicles are seen dumped in Bucha amid Russia's invasion in Ukraine, May 16, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Jorge Silva

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LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Monday ordering the payment of 5 million roubles ($81,500) to the families of members of Russia's National Guard who died in Ukraine and Syria.

The decree amounted to official recognition that members of the guard, known as Rosgvardia, are among the casualties of the war in Ukraine that Russia describes as a special military operation.

The force, which answers directly to Putin, was created in 2016 to fight terrorism and organised crime, and has been used domestically to crack down on peaceful anti-government protests.

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Western analysts have interpreted its deployment from the early stages of the war in Ukraine as a sign of misplaced confidence that Russia would quickly seize major cities, including the capital Kyiv, where Rosgvardia could then be used to maintain order.

In fact, Russian forces were beaten back from both Kyiv and Ukraine's second city, Kharkiv, and are now focused on heavy fighting in the eastern Donbas region.

Putin had already announced compensation schemes for the families of dead and wounded soldiers. Russia has not updated its casualty figures since March 25, when it said 1,351 servicemen had been killed and 3,825 wounded. Ukraine and Western governments say its toll by now is many times higher.($1 = 61.35 roubles)

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Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Kevin Liffey

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Putin orders $81500 payment to families of National Guards who die in Ukraine - Reuters.com

A staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened that Ukraine will soon see "a real special operation."

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has backed Putin since Russia launched its invasion of neighboring Ukraine in late February.

Kadyrov has regularly posted videos calling on Ukrainian forces to surrender and claimed to be in Ukraine in some of them.

"One of these days, you will see a real special operation," he said in a video message posted online on Sunday, using Moscow's terminology to describe the assault on Ukraine.

He went on to describe Ukrainians as "shaitans," a term meaning devils or evil spirits in Islamic theology.

"It will be seen how these devils flee not only from these cities, but also from Ukraine," he said. "So we are preparing, and we will please the real patriots of Russia."

Russian forces will use "new tactics" in Ukraine in the coming days, Kadyrov added in a caption to the video, according to a Google translation of the Russian.

"More effective and faster results will be achieved in conducting a special operation," he added.

"As confirmation of my statements, I will upload video evidence of the destruction of the Nazis, devils and Ukrainian occupation equipment."

Kadyrov, who has faced multiple allegations of human rights abuses during his time as leader of the Chechen Republic, also issued a warning to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"I warn Zelensky for the last time!" he wrote. "Raise your hands and go out to the square with the words 'Don't shoot, folks, I surrender!' Otherwise, you are DEAD!"

Last week, Kadyrov said he was ready to attack Poland, saying the country "better take back" the weapons it had supplied to Ukraine to help fend off Russian forces.

"After Ukraine, if we're given the command, in six seconds we'll show you what we're capable of," he said.

Kadyrov's latest comments come after a report indicated that the power of Russian forces is in decline a hundred days into the invasion.

Meanwhile, British intelligence said Putin had achieved none of his strategic objectives after three months of war and its successes had been achieved at "significant" cost.

Earlier this month, President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. will send Ukraine more advanced rocket systems and munitions to "defend their territory from Russian advances."

Biden added: "We will continue to lead the world in providing historic assistance to support Ukraine's fight for freedom."

In an interview on Sunday, Putin said his military will attack new targets if Ukraine is sent the long-range missiles.

"If it now comes to rockets and they are supplied, we will draw conclusions from that, and employ our weapons that we have in sufficient quantities to strike those facilities that we are not attacking so far," he said in an interview with Rossiya-1.

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Putin's Chechen Ally Threatens 'Special Operation' In Ukraine Within Days - Newsweek

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Amb. Michael McFaul: Putin will end the war when his forces on the battlefield can no longer advance - MSNBC

Arshak Makichyan made a name for himself as Russias lone climate activist, protesting for change in a country where oil and gas exports have propped up the countrys economy for decades.

Every Friday, for nearly two years, Makichyan protested alone in Moscows Pushkin Square, hoping to draw Russian attention to the danger posed by climate change. Born in Armenia, but given Russian citizenship when he was 10, Makichyan graduated from a prestigious music conservatory and turned to activism after reading about climate change and Greta Thunbergs weekly strikes. I was representing Russia as a violinist on competitions, and I was organising Friday for Futures, so I had a feeling that I am a future of Russia, he said.

Now the Russian government wants to punish him by taking away his passport.

In a court hearing this week, Russia will seek to revoke Makichyans citizenship, in a move that he and his lawyers call unprecedented, and a threat to millions of foreign-born Russians willing to speak out against the war.

Even though I was born in Armenia, I am part of Russian culture, I love Russia, I was fighting for Russia for years, I was risking my freedom for years, said the activist in an interview over the phone on his 28th birthday last week. And now I dont know what to do.

In his first interview about the case, Makichyan, who left Russia with his wife, Polina, in late March, and is currently living in Germany, told the Guardian he felt that the Russian claim was revenge for his anti-war and climate activism. Most recently, he has lobbied European politicians for a fossil fuel ban that could deprive Vladimir Putins regime of its key source of revenues.

Russia has regularly expelled foreign activists from the country. But stripping a Russian citizen of his nationality would be a rare move as the country sinks deeper into isolation and totalitarianism since launching its war in Ukraine. If Russia succeeds, Makichyan told the Guardian he would be left stateless.

I was inspired by [Alexei] Navalny because he returned to Russia although it was very dangerous, said Makichyan. I was planning to go back to Russia with my wife to continue to fight against this war. But now most likely we cannot go back to Russia any more.

The impact of climate change is being felt more and more strongly in Russia, which has been hit by growing forest fires in Siberia and melting permafrost and growing desertification in Russias south. But it remains a niche concern for most of the country.

Before the war, Russias tiny handful of eco-activists used to believe they could lobby the government for real policy change, even as the Kremlin failed to meet its obligations under the Paris agreement on greenhouse gas emissions and continued to profit from exports of fossil fuels.

But the war has changed everything. According to Makichyan it has shown that it is impossible to negotiate with Putin. He adds that he could not pretend like its normal and continue talking about 2050 when millions of people are suffering now.

I was connecting the dots between the human rights crisis and climate crisis, he said. Of course this war was a red line for a lot of people. Thats why I am calling Putin a war criminal and a killer. Because before the war I was thinking that maybe its better not to be that harsh on him. But now I think its a moral obligation to tell things as they are.

The climate activist was arrested in Moscow in late February for speaking out against the war, and his wife had been arrested several times for staging protests. I didnt want to leave the country but my wife was saying that she wants to breathe free air and it was actually unbearable for us, he said. Because we were expecting searches almost every day. Likely we would have been arrested if we had stayed in Russia one or two more days.

At one point, he and his wife even swapped clothing for a Pussy Riot-style escape from a police stakeout at her parents flat. Polina dressed up as Makichyan, a floppy-haired, rail-thin activist who would still fit in on most college campuses. She walked straight past police before a friend drove her out of the neighbourhood.

They decided to marry this winter so that if they were arrested, they would have the right to see each other in prison. Their wedding day, 24 February, turned out to be the same day that Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine. Makichyan wore a white shirt bearing the words Fuck the war in blood-red lettering.

For years, he said, Russia has been using the topic of climate change to promote its own interests, like its nuclear energy programme, while marginalising and ignoring activists in Russia like Makichyan who were calling for significant cuts in emissions.

It was different for us to be climate activists because we were trying to fight for everything, he said. Climate is everything and there is no climate education in Russia so we were trying to build it up from the ground.

Now outside Russia, he said they were shocked by the indifference that many Europeans were showing toward the war.

I think the west can do much better than they are doing now, he said, saying that he had been in Germany for two months and politicians had declined to meet him.

They dont understand how it is crucial now to act, he said. We need something real. Of course if we have embargo on Russian fossil fuels it will influence life in Europe, there will be some economical consequences.

But this war is something bigger, its not about economy, its about survival. If we wont change Putins regime then I dont know how we can have new climate negotiations.

Excerpt from:

We need something real: the Russian climate activist taking on Putins war - The Guardian

The Russian President has taken drastic measures to control access to information, including banning several social media platforms from operating in the country. The Russian government has blocked Facebook, Twitter and Instagram since its army invaded Ukraine on February 24. Additionally, lawmakers passed a bill that makes it a criminal offence to spread "fake" news about the Russian military.

Offenders can face up to 15 years in prison if found guilty of the crime, or face substantial fines.

The latest media crackdown has forced ordinary Russians to think up of new and creative ways to gain access to uncensored news.

Digital rights experts say Putin may have inadvertently sparked a massive, permanent shift in digital literacy in Russia that will work against the regime for years.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russians have been flocking to virtual private networks (VPNs) and encrypted messaging apps - tools that can be used to access blocked websites such as Facebook.

Now new data compiled for The Times shows that 24 million (or one in six) Russians used a VPN in May.

This represents an increase of 1.6 million users on April, a clear sign that Russians are becoming more competent in evading their government's draconian informational controls.

Gregory Asmolov, an expert at King's College London, believes the Kremlin is not interested in strictly enforcing its own censorship.

He said: The state is not entirely interested in a complete block.

They understand that lots of Russians use pages like Instagram and Facebook not as a means of finding out whats really going on but to connect with friends and for entertainment.

"They dont want to cause too much frustration.

However, there are signs that Russian officials are trying to close down the VPN loopholes.

READ MORE:Putin warns of hitting new targets if Ukraine supplied with missiles

Russias censorship agency confirmed recently that it is working to block VPN services that allegedly violate Russian law", according to the independent Russian media outlet Meduza.

Technology experts say that ways still exist to get around these new restrictions.

Oliver Linow, who describes himself as an internet freedom specialist for the German media site Deutsche Welle, tweeted: "Russia started to block VPNs. But there are still ways to get around the Russian firewall.

"Despite Tor is blocked - With bridges or snowflakes you can still connect to the network and get access to media that is not controlled by the Russian government."

The Russian government has blocked over 1,500 websites as part of its crackdown, including BBC News.

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It comes as fierce fighting continues in Ukraine's eastern territories, particularly around the city of Severodonetsk.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday that the city's defenders were still holding out despite being heavily outnumbered by Russian troops.

He claimed that Ukrainian forces had "every chance" of fighting back and were currently engaged in street-by-street battles with their enemy.

Mr Zelensky said that the intensity of the fighting in Severodonetsk and nearby Lysychansk had made them both "dead cities".

If both cities are captured, then Russia would control the entire Luhansk province - one half of the Donbas region.

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Putin humiliated as MILLIONS of Russians make a mockery of internet crackdown measures - Express