Category Archives: Putin

A 'second wave' of Russians are now formally relocating to countries spanning Europe, the Middle East and Asia after spending time getting their affairs in order.

Natalia Kolesnikova | Afp | Getty Images

For months now, Vladimir has been preparing paperwork and getting his affairs in order for a move to France.

A visa application process that was once relatively easy is now dogged with complexity, but the 37-year-old is confident that getting his family and employees out of Russia will be worthwhile.

"On the one hand, it's comfortable to live in the country where you were born. But on the other, it's about the safety of your family," Vladimir told CNBC via video call from his office in Moscow.

For Vladimir, the decision to leave the country he has called home all his life "was not made in one day." Under President Vladimir Putin's rule, he has watched what he called the "erosion of politics and freedom" in Russia over several years. But the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine was the final straw.

"I think, in a year or two, everything will be so bad," he said of his country.

The Russian Embassy in London and Russia's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

Vladimir, whose surname has been removed due to the sensitive nature of the situation, is part of what he considers Russia's "second wave" of migration following the war.This includes those who took longer to prepare to leave the country such as people with businesses or families who wanted to let their children finish the school year before leaving.

Such flexibility was not afforded to everybody. When Moscow invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, alongside the millions of Ukrainians who were forced to flee their homes, life for some Russians became untenable overnight.

Once the flow begins and people start finding out how to do things ... that prompts more people to leave.

Jeanne Batalova

senior policy analyst, Migration Policy Institute

A "first wave" of artists, journalists and others openly opposed to Putin's regime felt they had to leave the country immediately or risk political persecution for violating the Kremlin's clampdown on public dissent.

"A lot of people got notices saying that they were traitors," said Jeanne Batalova, senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute, noting the backlash suffered by some Russians even from neighbors.

But as the war rages on, more Russians are deciding to pack up and leave.

"The way migration works is that once the flow begins and people start finding out how to do things get a flat, apply for asylum, find a job or start a business that prompts more people to leave. It becomes a self-fulfilling cycle," Batalova said.

There is no concrete data on the number of Russians who have left the country since the start of the war. However, one Russian economist put the total at 200,000 as of mid-March.

That figure is likely to be far higher now, according to Batalova, as tens of thousands of Russians have relocated to Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Israel, the Baltic states and beyond.

"If you look at the various destinations where people have gone, these numbers do ring true," she said. And that's not even counting Russia's large overseas diaspora, many of whom are in Southeast Asia, who have chosen not to return home following the invasion. Batalova puts that figure at around 100,000.

There is no concrete data on the number of people who have fled Russia following the war, although economists put estimates at 200,000 to 300,000 as of mid-March.

Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

In the tech sector alone, an estimated 50,000 to 70,000 professionals left in the first month of the war, with a further 70,000 to 100,000 expected to follow soon thereafter, according to a Russian IT industry trade group.

Some start-up founders like Vladimir, who runs a software service for restaurants, have decided to relocate their businesses and staff overseas, choosing countries with access to capital, such as France, the U.K, Spain and Cyprus. Vladimir is moving his wife and school-age child, as well as his team of four and their families, to Paris.

They follow more mobile independent Russia tech workers who have already flocked to low-visa countries including Indonesia, Thailand and Turkey.

You're seeing a massive brain drain. The disruption for talented people is enormous.

Then, there's a third group of tech workers at larger Russian IT companies who are leaving more out of obligation than choice.

Mikhail Mizhinsky, founder of Relocode, a company that helps tech businesses relocate, said these people faced a particularly difficult situation.

Many have received ultimatums from overseas customers who are ceasing doing business with Russia. For them, it's a toss-up between low costs in Bulgaria, Russian influence in Serbia and tax benefits in Armenia, according to Mizhinsky.

"Most of them don't necessarily want to leave Russia, where their home is," he said. "But, on the other hand, they have their clients who buy their IT outsourced products and services who demanded them to leave. Many got letters from clients who said they would terminate their contracts if they did not leave Russia."

The tech sector is one among several professional services industries that have seen an exodus of talent from Russia's larger cities, as people reject the war and worsening business conditions.

Scott Antel, an international hospitality and franchise lawyer who spent almost two decades working in Moscow, has so far this year helped five friends relocate from Russia to Dubai, in several cases purchasing properties for them, sight unseen, to expedite the move.

"You're seeing a massive brain drain," said Antel, whose departing friends span the legal and consulting professions, as well as hospitality and real estate. "The disruption for talented people is enormous and is going to be even more so."

Around 15,000 millionaires are expected to leave Russia this year, adding to the increasing number of people migrating away amid President Putin's war.

Oleg Nikishin | Getty Images News

"A lot of them feel that they've lost their country," he continued. "Realistically, is this going to turn around in a couple of years? No."

And it's not just professionals seeking out the stability of overseas markets like Dubai. Having remained politically neutral amid international sanctions, the emirate has emerged as a destination of choice for Russia's uber rich, too, with many shifting their wealth into its luxury property market.

Indeed, around 15,000 millionaires are expected to leave Russia this year, according to a June report from London-based citizenship-by-investment firm Henley & Partners, with Dubai ranking as the top location for the super rich.

The ongoing second exodus comes amid reports that some of Russia's earlier emigres have returned home, because of both family and business ties, as well as difficulties as a result of travel restrictions and banking sanctions.

However, Batalova said she expects such returns to be short-lived.

"My bet would be that the emigration from Russia will continue, and when people do go back it will be to sell possessions, homes, and then leave again," she said.

But questions remain over the reception some Russian emigres may receive in their host country, she said.

They don't want Russia to come along later and try to protect Russians in those host countries as they did with the diaspora in Ukraine.

Jeanna Batalova

senior policy analyst, Migration Policy Institute

"In this conflict, Russia is viewed as the aggressor, and that attitude is passed down onto the emigres. Even if they [Russian migrants] are against the system, the public sentiment can be transferred to the new arrivals," Batalova said.

Indeed, there is a very real fear among some host countries that an influx of Russian migrants could see them become a target for a future Russian invasion. Moscow has maintained that part of the justification for its so-called special military operation in Ukraine was the "liberation" of Donbas, an area of east Ukraine which is home to a significant number of ethnic Russians.

According to Batalova, countries like Georgia, Armenia and the Baltic states all of which have suffered at the hands of Russian aggression in the past, and have existing concerns over their national security are likely to be particularly anxious.

"They don't want Russia to come along later and try to protect Russians in those host countries as they did with the diaspora in Ukraine," she noted.

Still, Vladimir is undeterred. He is hopeful for a fresh start in his family's search for a new home outside of Russia.

"Regarding the negativity, I'm sure it's not true for 100% for all people. In any country, and with any passport, people can understand one another," he said.

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A second wave of Russians is fleeing Putin's regime - CNBC

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Dmitry Bykov was a force in Russian cultural life; now hes effectively in exile, probably for as long as Putin remains in power. Bykov speaks with David Remnick about the state of Russiaand Russiansunder Putinism, which he describes as the final stage of Russian decline. His country, he says, is the land of the most free slaves. Plus, the YouTuber known as Nerdwriter talks with the producer Ngofeen Mputubwele about the essay in the age of the Internet. And Kelefa Sanneh, who writes about music and more for The New Yorker, recommends some of the notable songs playing on country radio right now.

This content can also be viewed on the site it originates from.

Dmitry Bykov was a force in Russian cultural life; now hes effectively in exile, probably for as long as Putin remains in power. The regime is the final stage of Russian decline.

This content can also be viewed on the site it originates from.

Evan Puschak, posting as the Nerdwriter, helped pioneer the form of the video essay, tackling culture, politics, and psychology. He speaks with Ngofeen Mputubwele.

This content can also be viewed on the site it originates from.

In country music, you havent quite made it until the radio stations are playing your song, the writer says. He recommends songs by hitmakers new and old.

The New Yorker Radio Hour is a co-production of WNYC Studios and The New Yorker.

Originally posted here:

The Writer Dmitry Bykov on Putins Russia, the Land of Most Free Slaves - The New Yorker

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once the richest man in Russia and now known as the "Kremlins leading critic-in-exile", knows exactly how the West can twist Vladimir Putins arm and force Russia to the negotiating table with Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron has been particularly active in trying to negotiate a settlement with Putin but has so far failed. He even suggested Ukraine should cede territory to Russia so Putin can somehow deliver some sort of victory to Russian citizens.

When asked whether Putin should be given concession as French President Emmanuel Macron did, Mr Khodorkovsky told CBC News: "Im sure its not right. You need to show Putin strength.

"You need to show him that if he doesnt stop, then he will be stopped. You need to give Ukraine three, four or five weapon systems that are equal to Putins military weapons.

"Only at the moment you show Putin that if he doesnt stop, he will be stopped can negotiations begin."

He added the main flaw of Western leaders is their incapacity to negotiate with "criminal" leaders.

He said: "In their lives, many Western leaders never communicated much with criminals.

"The communication rules in a criminals world are completely different from the rules that theyre used to.

"Like the respectable Mr Macron whos been trying to negotiate with Putin when Putin considers himself with the upper hand.

"This only provokes Putin to be even more aggressive. Thats what Im afraid Western leaders dont understand."

READ MORE:Russia closing in on 'last puzzle piece' to control Black Sea

When asked how Putins regime will end, he said: "As long as Putin is able to show the Russian army and the people that hes winning, theres no threat to him.

"But at the moment that he loses, right at that moment, the situation will become absolutely different for him and most likely hell lose power along with his life."

In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, he acquired Yukos, the worlds most valuable oil company and made a fortune until he grew critical of Putins regime and its rampant corruption.

He was charged and found guilty of embezzlement in a trial that was viewed as politically motivated. Eight years after Putin pardoned him, he wants to help the West bring the Ukraine war to a halt.

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Excerpt from:

'He will be stopped' Putin critic reveals how NATO can force Russia into peace talks - Express

Before Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, the country's technology sector relied heavily on Western technology and investment - but sanctions have caused a shortfall of vital foreign parts that are used to create cars, household appliances and electronics.

Most of the world's biggest chip manufacturers including Intel and Samsung have halted business with Russiaoverits invasion of Ukraine.

It came after the UK, US and Europe imposed export controls on products using chips made or designed in the Western countries.

This has created a shortfall of the types of chips that go into creating a range of domestic products including cars, household appliances and military equipment.

Supplies of more advanced semiconductors, which are used to produce electronics and IT hardware, have also been severely cut.

Meanwhile, Western sanctions have also meant Russia's ability to import foreign tech - such as smartphones, has also been drastically curtailed.

Samuel Bendett, an AI and IT expert who specialises in Russian military technology, toldExpress.co.uk: "If these sanctions impact some of the microelectronic manufacturing, which is supposed to make its way into consumer electronic items, then Russian consumers may be impacted already.

"Customers may now not have access to previously available Western technologies and a lot of critical projects have been frozen".

Mr Bendett said Russia found itself "in a bad situation" because prior to the war the country was almost "completely dependent" on Western technologies.

READ MORE:Russia closing in on 'last puzzle piece' to control Black Sea

Now, that a lot of these technologies are no longer available, the sector is struggling to develop new technologies and keep critical projects ongoing.

"Entire supply routes for servers to computers to iPhones - everything - is gone", Financial Times reported a Western chip executive saying.

With the country unable to export much of its raw materials, import critical goods or access global financial markets, some economists predict Russia's gross domestic product will reduce by as much as 15 percent this year.

The sanctions, along with the already significant exodus of IT workers in the country, will likely impact the availability of tech items including certain phones, cars and other products that relied on foreign parts.

Mr Bendett said: "Entities and organisations that built data centres in Russia don't have access to imported technologies.

"Obviously, it has been over four months since the start of the war and many Russian supply chains relied on Western tech before the sanctions".

He added that it may also impact the "Russian efforts to invest in domestic high-tech manufacturing".

The Kremlin is now concentrating a lot of effort and investment into its IT sector to ensure it becomes self-reliant and a lot less dependent on Western hardware.

Read the original post:

Putin humiliated as technology shortfall from sanctions leave 'critical projects frozen' - Express

Russian President Vladimir Putin during the CSTO summit in Moscow on May 16, 2022.Getty Images

Russia's Swiss embassy threatened a newspaper with legal action over an image it published.

The the Neue Zrcher Zeitung included an image of Putin as a clown in an article on memes.

Officials said "insults and fakes" were beyond the limits of free speech, and threatened to report it.

Russian officials threatened a Swiss newspaper with a legal action after it published an image depicting President Vladimir Putin as a clown.

Zurich newspaper the Neue Zrcher Zeitung, published the piece "Between Superheroes and Villains: The Power of Memes in the Ukraine War." It discussed how viral images played a part in discussion of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The lead image featured Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Iron Man next Putin with a clown nose and colorful face paint.

Its intent appears to have been to illustrate the type of imagery used, rather than to argue that the newspaper or its writers consider Putin to be a clown.

Russia's embassy in Switzerland responded with a letter to the newspaper's editor, describing itself as "extremely outraged" by the image.

The letter argued that freedom of speech was not an excuse to publish "insults and fakes."

It took special offense at the rainbow colors on Putin's face, citing his hostility to LGBTQ people.

It also objected to what it called the depiction in the article of Putin as a war criminal, a common charge among Ukrainians, human-rights observers and Western officials.

The message ended with a reference to Switzerland's defamation laws and said the officials "reserve the right... to apply to the Swiss law enforcement agencies" to take action over the image.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Russia threatens Swiss newspaper with legal action for publishing image of Putin with a clown nose - Yahoo News

One question is dominating the energy industry: will Vladimir Putin turn the tap back on? This week the Kremlin-controlled energy firm Gazprom shut off gas supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for maintenance until 21 July, having already cut its output to less than 40% of capacity. Now there are growing concerns that the Russian president may simply refuse to reactivate it.

This week energy executives at the Aurora consultancys conference in Oxford were asked to vote on whether the supplies would return. A forest of confident arms shot up for yes, a similar amount for no. Only Putin knows the answer.

Fears for gas supplies have led European nations to rapidly fill up their storage capacity before the winter. Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukraines President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has accused Russia of conducting gas blackmail. By contrast, nations with closer links to Russia, including Belarus and Turkey, have seen little disruption.

Although Moscow had a record of restricting gas flows to Europe as part of past disputes with Ukraine including in 2005-06, 2009 and 2017 many in the industry had assumed that because the Kremlin kept supplies flowing throughout the cold war, it would not resort to cutting off its largest market. However, Ben van Beurden, CEO of Shell, said this week that Putin has now shown he is able and willing to weaponise supplies.

The strategy has the apparent aims of weakening Kyivs allies and, potentially, turning nations on one another. This week Hungarys pro-Putin prime minister, Viktor Orbn, said it would halt gas exports to its neighbours. The move undermines a regulation that made solidarity among European countries mandatory to prevent the supply cuts seen after the 2017 Russia-Ukraine gas dispute.

Less gas sold in Europe means less money for the Kremlins war chest, and the EU has committed to cutting Russian imports by two-thirds by year end on that basis. However, despite EU leaders agreeing a partial embargo on Russian oil, any outright ban on its gas appears unlikely given how much many of its members rely on it. So which countries are most vulnerable to Putins pressure as he turns the screw?

The European economic powerhouse has been left most exposed by the sudden lack of Russian gas after the closure of Nord Stream 1, which runs from Vyborg, north-west of St Petersburg, under the sea to Germanys Baltic coast.

The German economy minister, Robert Habeck, says the Kremlin is using gas as a weapon and admits his country had made a grave political mistake in becoming too dependent on Russian supplies. Germany imported 59.2bn cubic meters of gas through Nord Stream 1 in 2021 and had hoped to double that via a new sister pipeline, Nord Stream 2, but suspended those plans days before the invasion of Ukraine.

Germany has hastily tried to wean itself off Russian gas to distance itself from Putin since the war. Meanwhile, Gazprom cut supplies through Nord Stream 1 to 40% of its capacity in mid-June. As a result, Germanys dependence on Russian gas has fallen from 55% of total consumption to 35% since the war. But the government has still been forced to declare a gas crisis, asking industrial users to slash usage and encouraging councils to turn off traffic lights at night, cut the use of air conditioning and stop lighting up historic buildings.

Investors are at their most pessimistic over the German economy since the throes of the eurozone debt crisis in 2011, amid fears it could slump into recession.

Italians are currently battling a heatwave but staying warm this winter remains high on the agenda in a country with the oldest population in Europe. Russian gas imports accounted for 18% of consumption before the war in Ukraine and are largely piped via the Trans Austria gas pipeline.

Power group Eni said this week that Gazprom would cut supplies to Italy by a third, on top of cuts of 60% since war broke out. Confindustria, the association representing Italian industries, has said a complete halt could see its GDP drop by 2%. Rising bond yields indicate markets are increasingly concerned over the countrys abilities to repay its huge debts.

Italys gas storage sites are now about 60% full and plans have been floated to ask consumers to turn down their heating this winter and spend less time showering.

SPP, the main Slovak gas importer, receives most of its gas from Russia and even Zelenskiy acknowledges the Slovaks cannot immediately cut off that source. SSP has managed to ramp up liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Norway and other nations until the end of the year. A new Polish-Slovak interconnector pipeline, due to open later this year, is also being tested.

Austria gets 80% of its gas from Russia and its storage depots meet just 39% of its annual needs. The government has pledged to spend 6.6bn on building up reserves although Haidach, one of Europes biggest underground gas reservoirs, is unlikely to be filled due to tensions between its joint owners a German and an Austrian firm and Gazprom.

The Dutch energy ministry has said the country has managed to meet its goal of ending its need for Russian gas for domestic use. However, as a huge storage and transport hub, it could take a knock from reduced flows. In May, Gazprom halted gas supplies to Dutch company GasTerra after it refused to meet Kremlin demands that all gas be paid for in roubles.

France is less dependent than some of its neighbours on Russia, which supplies about 17% of its gas. But replacing energy output is complicated by the fact many French nuclear plants, which could have picked up the slack, are out of action because of maintenance and repairs. Russia briefly cut off supplies to France in June and Pariss finance minister, Bruno Le Maire, this week described a Russian gas cutoff as the most likely scenario.

He said the country would initially ask households and businesses to cut energy consumption and then later look into constructing new infrastructure such as a floating LNG plant. French tyre giant Michelin said it had converted its boilers to ensure they are capable of running on oil as well as gas.

The Spanish prime minister, Pedro Snchez, is facing geopolitical tensions over the countrys gas supplies on all fronts. His decision to support Morocco in a dispute over Western Sahara prompted a reduction in gas flows from Algeria, which has now been overtaken by Russia as Spains second largest supplier, behind the US. Russian supplies are entirely LNG while Algerias gas is largely piped to Spain.

Sanchez has talked up Spains existing facilities the country accounts for 37% of the EUs capacity for re-gasification, where LNG is turned back into natural gas so could ramp up exports into the rest of Europe. Spain and neighbouring Portugal have also introduced a temporary cap on the wholesale price of gas.

Russia cut off Poland and Bulgaria in late April after they refused to comply with its demands to pay in rubles. Poland had received around half of its gas from Russia, with 9.9bn cubic meters of the 20bn it uses a year coming via the Yamal pipeline. However, it relies on coal for most of its power and has already filled up its gas storage sites.

A 1996 contract with Gazprom had been due to end this year and Poland had no intention of renewing it. Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at consultancy ICIS, said: Poland is not in a bad position because it has not trusted Russia for many years. It began this conversation about security of energy supply much earlier than other countries.

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Gas blackmail: how Putins weaponised energy supplies are hurting Europe - The Guardian

Europe has been rewiring itself in impressive ways in the four months since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched hisinvasion of Ukraine.

The coming weeks will show whether that work of building a more resolute European Union for a future of new geopolitical challenges will continueor, instead, if the rewiring will short-circuit before the job is done in the face of rising economic headwinds and Putins grinding war of attrition.

Thus far, the European Union (EU) has remained unified with the United States and others behind anunprecedented set of sanctions on Russia. Further, it has begun to strengthen its hard power throughincreased defense spending, and it has moved swiftly to reduce its shameful energy dependence on Moscow. Most recently the Group of Seven (G7) appears poised to announcean import ban on Russian gold.

In ways Putin never envisioned when he hatched his war, the EU has committed itself to ensuring Ukraines future as a democratic, independent, and European country throughbillions of euros of economic support,unprecedented arms deliveries, and nowan offer of membership candidacy to Ukraine and Moldova.

As NATO prepares to open its summit in Madrid this week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov voiced Moscows growing concern about EU unity of purpose alongside the alliance. He said the EU and NATO were building a coalition to engage in a war with Moscowthat he comparedto Hitler during World War II. As laughable as Lavrov sounds to reasonable earsthis eras tyrannical dictator sits in Moscow and not Berlinit underscores Putins worries about Western common cause and hiswarped view of history.

Yet as impressive as the EU rewiring project has been thus far, its likely to short-circuit in the months ahead unless the political conviction grows even stronger around this historic moment. That will demand faster implementation of new defense and energy policiesand greater support for Ukraine.

As Putin gains ground in Ukraine,with new strikes on Kyiv todayalmost certainly timed to coincide with the G7 meeting in Germany, it will take all the political will European leaders can muster. They will face greater public pressures to end the war with benchmark gas prices climbing an additional 15 percent in the last week amidst thedouble shocksof Russian cuts and a fire at Freeport LNG in Texas,with inflation reaching 8.1 percentin the euro area in May, and with economic recession dangers rising rapidly, given the threat of Russian gas cutoffs this winter.

On another front, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde summoned her colleaguesto an emergency sessionlast week in Frankfurt that was designed to generate solidarity around steps to preempt any danger of a new Eurozone debt crisis reaching Italy from the dual shocks of rising inflation and slowing growth.

Putin is counting on the usual fatigue and political divisions that set in among Western democracies when they must weigh growing domestic concerns against international dangers. Hes seen enough to encourage him, including newly re-elected Emmanuel Macronsfailure to win a majority in the National Assembly, the first time in thirty years thats been denied the French president.

And for all the impressive arms shipments and economic support the Biden administration has delivered Ukraine, the weaponry firing range of some fifty miles remains insufficient to stop the Russian carpet-bombing, for fear of expanding the war.

Beyond that, Putin knows US midterm elections are likely to weaken Biden further amid domestic disputes over the Supreme Courtsoverturningof the Roe v. Wade abortion protections and the countrys continuing disputes over gun laws. Even as Putins wargrows uglier, Americans are seeing less of it on their TV screens.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is also looking weaker than in his first days in office, as hehosts the G7leadersin the Bavarian Alps this weekend.

Scholtz facedsuch a storm of criticismthat hes been dragging his feet on heavy weapons deliveries to Ukraine that his Defense Ministry was compelled to publish afull listof completed and planned deliveries, including seven self-propelled Panzerhaubitze 2000 howitzers that at long last have arrived in Ukraine.

Its worth remembering that Europes greatest moments of forward progress typically come at times of crisis, as has been the case again following Putins war in Ukraine. Its at such times that member states better manage their divisions and work more effectively around the EUs mind-bending bureaucracy.

The problem is that the current European divide that looks hardest to fix is afundamental disagreement over how important a Ukrainian victory isand what it would take to bring it about.

The closer you live to Russia as an EU citizen, the more you argue, as I didin this spaceon June 5, that Putin doesnt need the diplomatic off-ramp that Macron is offering but rather the dead-end that can only be brought by tougher sanctions and a more effective Ukrainian counter-offensive backed by longer-range weapons.

Russias closest neighbors knowthat a bad peace in which Ukraine gives up new territory will only provide a respite before Putin resumes his imperial efforts to take all of Ukraine and ultimately other former Soviet areas.

In Western Europe, the desire is greater for a peace that would end the war now, even if the outcome leaves Putin in power and,as Macron has said, avoids humiliating him.

Despite the celebratory rhetoric in Brussels about the European Unions surprisingly robust response to Russias invasion of Ukrainewrites Eoin Dreathis week inForeign Policy, the war has not united the bloc in any unprecedented or transformative way. In fact, its having exactly the opposite effect: Beneath the soaring vista of Ukraine as a catalyst for a more muscular and geopolitically effective EU like deep divisions, shifting allegiances, and a much more complex reality.

Counterbalancing that gloom, Macron, Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannisvisited Kyivon June 16 to hammer home their support for Ukrainian security and European ambitions.

Shortly after they returned, the European Parliamentvotedwith 529 votes to 45 against and 14 abstentions to adopt aresolutioncalling on the heads of state or government to grant EU candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova, which they have now done.

That symbolism must now be complemented by even greater substance. The rewiring of the EU has only just begun to strengthen its defenses, diversify its energy sources, tighten its transatlantic links, and ensure Ukraines survival as a sovereign, free European state.

To stay the course, European leaders and citizens must understand what they are doing isnt just for Ukraine but even more for themselves. The lessons from two devastating World Wars and a Cold War are that staying unified is a prerequisite for victory and that appeasing despots is always self-defeating.

This article originally appeared onCNBC.com

Frederick Kempe is president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on Twitter @FredKempe.

#1 How Far Do Putins Imperial Ambitions Go?Yaroslav Trofimov | WALL STREET JOURNAL

In this chilling analysis, Yaroslav Trofimov lays out in frightening detail just how far Putins imperial ambitions might take him.

Trofimov opens with a bizarre and telling scene, in which Putin, long before his Ukraine invasion, makes a spectacle out of contradicting a nine-year-old on the question of where Russias borders end.

At the Bering Strait with the United States, the nine-year-old boy ventured hesitantly.Putin, who chairs the board of the Russian Geographic Society, contradicted the boy to triumphant applause The borders of Russia, he pronounced, never end.'

Earlier this month, writes Trofimov, Putin said that he views Ukraine as just the first step, with many other territories potential targets. Just this month in St. Petersburg, while honoring the 350th anniversary of Peter the Great, he said that when Peter conquered Sweden he was merely returning what is ours, and strengthening it. Read more

#2 What If Russia Uses Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?Eric Schlosser | THE ATLANTIC

As Putins war in Ukrainebogs downinto a battle of attrition, the danger that Vladimir Putin willdeploy battlefield nuclear weapons persists. In this richly reported piece, Eric Schlosser interviews nuclear weapons exports to explore what could happenand how the United States could respond.

The risk of nuclear war, Schlosser warns, is greater today than at any other time since the Cuban missile crisis. And the decisions that would have to be made after a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine are unprecedented. In 1945, when the United States destroyed two Japanese cities with atomic bombs, it was the worlds sole nuclear power. Nine countries now possess nuclear weapons, others may soon obtain them, and the potential for things going terribly wrong has vastly increased. Read more

#3 What Makes a Power GreatMichael J. Mazarr | FOREIGN AFFAIRS

In this smart, in-depth analysis, Michael Mazarr draws from a RAND corporation study on what makes great powersand how they can fall.

Over the course of fifteen months, Mazarr led a RAND Corporation study for the US Defense Departments Office of Net Assessment, supported by analysis from outside historians. The study isolated a number of national characteristics that throughout history have underpinned national competitive successincluding a strong national ambition, a culture of learning and adaptation, and significant diversity and pluralism.

These domestic strengths are the building blocks of international power. But, Mazarr warns, to enable a country to succeed, they must reinforce and support one another. And they must not fall out of balance. Too much national ambition, for instance, can lead to overreach, imperiling the country that overcommits itself. But countries with too little ambition, diversity, or willingness to learn and adapt risk starting a negative cycle that can spiral into national decline.

Read this study to learn why it is that the United States, if it is to prevail in the years ahead in contests with China and Russia, will have to do more than just outspend its rivals on defense or advanced military technologies. It will have to nurture the qualities that make great powers dynamic, innovative, and adaptive. Read more

#4 After a Pivotal Period in Ukraine, US Officials Predict the Wars PathHelene Cooper, Eric Schmitt, Julian E. Barnes| NEW YORK TIMES

Based on analyses by a number of US defense officials, including Atlantic Council military fellows, this New York Times article provides a useful examination of how the US defense establishment expects the war in Ukraine to unfold.

Now that four to six weeks have passed since Russia shifted its main focus to eastern Ukraine, Cooper, Schmitt, and Barnes write, officials say the picture is increasingly clear: Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as a depleted Russian military faces an opponent armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons.

In this situation, they add, other analysts predict a back and forth that could stretch for months or even years. This is likely to keep going, with each side trading territory on the margins, [director of Russian studies at CNA Michael] Kofman said. Its going to be a dynamic situation. There are unlikely to be significant collapses or major surrenders.Read more

#5 A Ukrainian Refugees Fight To Save The Family She Left BehindEd Caesar | NEW YORKER

This weeks must-read is Ed Caesars riveting, heartbreakingNew Yorkerpiece about a Ukrainian family separated by the war and navigating life as refugees from Putins war.

Follow Inna Blahonravina and her daughters Sasha and Oliviia as they depart Ukraine in midst of Russian air-raids on Kiev, leaving Innas husband Maksym behind. It is a chronicle of resilience and separation, fear, and hope, and it shows a portion of the vast human cost of Putins brutal invasion of Ukraine.

Once, Caesar writes, Oliviia looked over Innas shoulder as she read on her phone about an attack on Kyiv. The report was accompanied by an image of a building on fire, with rescuers at the scene. Oliviia asked who the people in the photograph werewhether they were Russian or Ukrainian, and if one of them was Vladimir Putin. Then she said, Mommy, Im so glad were not killed. Every day, the kids had video calls with their father. Maksym tried to keep the conversations lighthearted, but even banal topics could be laced with sadness.

Do you miss the cats? hed ask. Read more

Image: Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz, President of the French Republic Emmanuel Macron, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of the Council of Ministers of the Italian Republic Mario Draghi and President of Romania Klaus Iohannis (L to R) are pictured during the official welcome ceremony outside the Mariinskyi Palace, Kyiv, capital of Ukraine.

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Europe's 'rewiring' is crucial, in the face of grinding inflation and Putin's war - Atlantic Council

London will be the first strategic Nato target to be hit by Russian missiles should a third world war erupt, a close ally of president Vladimir Putin has claimed.

Speaking on Russian state TV, Andrey Gurulyov, an MP who sits on Moscows defence committee, described how a possible full-scale invasion of Natos Baltic state members would work.

Mr Gurulyov, a former military commander and member of the pro-Putin United Russia party, said: Well destroy the entire group of the enemys space satellites during the first air operation.

No one will care if they are American or British; we would see them all as Nato.

Second, well mitigate the entire system of anti-missile defence, everywhere and 100 per cent. Third, we certainly wont start from Warsaw, Paris or Berlin. The first to be hit will be London.

Its crystal clear that the threat to the world comes from the Anglo-Saxons.

Vladimir Putins war on Ukraine is now in its fifth month

(AP)

He said an invasion was the only way to prevent the West from blockading Kaliningrad, a Russian semi-exclave between Lithuania and Poland.

Gurulyov said Western Europe would be cut off from power supplies which he said would also be destroyed and immobilised.

In the third stage, I shall see what the USA will tell Western Europe on continuing their fight in the cold, without food and electricity, he continued. I wonder how they [the US] will manage to stay aside.

This is the rough plan, and I deliberately leave out certain moments because they are not to be discussed on TV.

Putin has made previous threats about an updated version of the Satan missile

(Washington Post)

The Putin allys threats come as Russias war enters its fifth month, leading to concerns in the West of fatigue over the ongoing and deadly conflict.

Yesterday, Boris Johnson warned that pressure would grow to coerce the Ukrainians into making a bad peace because of economic stresses sparked by the conflict.

Asked at the high commissioners residence in Kigali what he meant by concerns of Ukraine fatigue, Mr Johnson said: I know it is tough. I know it is tough in the UK. I know the cost of food has gone up. Everybody is looking at this and too many countries are saying this is a European war that is unnecessary.

It is an economic problem that we dont need, so the pressure will grow to encourage coerce, maybe the Ukrainians into a bad peace.

I think the risk is that people will fail to see that it is vital to stand up against aggression. If Putin gets away with aggression in Ukraine, if he gets away with the naked conquest of other peoples territory, then the read across for every single country here is absolutely dramatic: the collapse of the international system. And it would be a long-term economic disaster.

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Vladimir Putin ally warns London will be bombed first if World War 3 breaks out - The Independent

PARIS: Vladimir, firstly one thing! says President Emmanuel Macron as he seeks to make a point to his Russian counterpart.

Listen Emmanuel, interjects the Russian leader.

One of the final calls between the presidents of France and Russia, just four days before Putin issued the order for Moscow to invade Ukraine, is filled with tension, occasional expressions of respect and moments of the bizarre.

With Europes peace in question, it even ends with Putin saying that he was supposed to be playing ice hockey and was conducting the conversation from a sports hall.

In a hugely unusual glimpse into a confidential telephone call between heads of state, Macron and his team were filmed at the Elysee taking the call and the footage will now be broadcast as the centrepiece of a documentary A President, Europe and the War on the French presidents handling of the Ukraine war to be broadcast Thursday on France 2 TV.

The call took place on the morning of February 20 as the French leader made what turned out to be a fruitless attempt to stop Russia from going to war. He also proposed a summit with US President Joe Biden that Russia would turn its back on.

Macron has been praised by admirers by keeping open a channel to Putin, with whom he sought to cultivate a relationship to the point of inviting the Kremlin chief to his summer residence in 2019.

But detractors fear the French leaders eagerness for dialogue was exploited by Russia and Kyiv has been troubled by his insistence that Russia should not be left humiliated when the war comes to an end.

He is lying

I would like you to first give me your reading of the situation and perhaps quite directly, as is our habit, tell me what your intentions are, Macron asked Putin bluntly at the start of the conversation.

What can I say? You yourself see what is happening, retorted Putin, accusing Ukraine of rupturing the Minsk accords that reduced the scale of a conflict that erupted in 2014.

He lambasted the pro-Western Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, falsely accusing Kyiv of seeking a nuclear weapon.

In fact our dear colleague Mr Zelensky is doing nothing to apply the Minsk accords, Putin alleged. He is lying to you, he added, also accusing Macron of seeking to revise Minsk.

I dont know if your legal advisor has learned law! As for me I just look at the texts and I try to apply them, snorted Macron.

Putin then argued that the propositions of separatists in eastern Ukraine should be taken into account. But we dont care about the propositions from the separatists, snapped Macron.

But despite the tension Macron also sought to play the role of mediator, saying he will urge Zelensky to calm down everyone not just in the Ukrainian armed forces but on social media. Do not give in to provocations of any kind in the hours and days to come, he told Putin.

As they have always done in their conversations both men use the informal form of you to address each other.

Did not convince him

The call ended with Macron suggesting to Putin a summit with Biden. Putin did not object but also did not appear interested in fixing a date while insisting that the meeting should be fully prepared.

The Elysee then briefed reporters that an agreement in principle had been reached for a summit between Biden and Putin but this never took place.

The final words were relatively cordial. Thank you in any case Vladimir.

We will stay in touch in real time. When there is something call me, said Macron. I thank you Mr president, said Putin, suddenly slipping into French.

It was then that Putin revealed to Macron what was also on his mind.

To be honest, I wanted to go play ice hockey. Here I am talking to you from the sports hall before starting the physical exertion. But first I will talk with my advisors.

Macron would speak to Putin again the day later, on February 21. But on February 24, Russia launched the invasion, sparking a war that is still raging even if Moscow failed in its apparent initial aim of taking Kyiv.

The president undertook further calls with Putin even after the invasion began, including on February 24 itself, but the exchanges have now dried up.

He has always insisted the diplomacy was the right thing to do but also faced criticism for finally making a trip to Kyiv to back Zelensky only last week and not before.

We did not convince him and he invaded Ukraine, Macron told the film makers. I thought that we could find, through confidence and intellectual discussion, a path with Putin, he added.

Published in Dawn, June 26th, 2022

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Macron's tense, last-ditch call to Putin on eve of Ukraine invasion revealed - DAWN.com

The figures, shared by Ukraine's Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security, which sits under the country's Ministry of Culture and Information Policy, represent the only estimation currently available on the state of Moscow's army. However, information on casualties and hardware losses cannot be verified and, due to governments' individual interests, not fully trusted.

The Ukrainian government issues regular updates of Russia's losses in a conflict that has this week hit the four-month mark.

According to its latest update, on Friday, other losses among the Kremlin's equipment include 3,645 armoured Protected Vehicles (APV), 75 artillery systems, 241 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) and 2,560 vehicles.

Russia has only given an official toll of troops killed on two occasions, the last on March 25, with a figure of 1,351 which experts described at the time as way too low.

READ MORE:UK sent warning as Putin plots terrifying new world order

Kyiv reveals no such statistics for its own forces or hardware.

However, President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier this month his army was losing up to 100 soldiers per day, while some 500 were being wounded.

In an interview with the US Newsmax television channel, Mr Zelenskiy said: "The situation is very difficult: were losing 60 to 100 soldiers per day as killed in action and something around 500 people as wounded in action. So we are holding our defensive perimeters."

Calling Ukraine and its people are the "defensive perimeter" for the world against Vladimir Putin's aggression, he added: "We have to realise who is the dark power it's Russia.

"And Russia is not going to stop in Ukraine, for sure.

"The other countries, the former Republics of USSR and the members of the EU some of them are already NATO member nations theyre already under threat."

The fall of the city, once home to more than 100,000 people and now reduced to a wasteland of rubble by Russian artillery, is the Kremlin's biggest win since taking the port of Mariupol last month.

It was the latest symbol of Ukrainian resistance in Donbas but now, Mayor Oleksandr Stryuk said, anyone left behind could no longer reach Ukrainian-held territory, as the area was effectively cut off.

The victory means 95 percent of the Luhansk province is under Russian and local separatist control.

Russians and separatist forces also control about half of Donetsk.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, described the fall of Severodonetsk as a means for Kyiv's forces to regroup on higher ground in neighbouring Lysychansk.

He said: "The activities happening in the area of Severodonetsk are a tactical regrouping of our troops.

"This is a withdrawal to advantageous positions to obtain a tactical advantage."

The head of the military intelligence agency added: "Russia is using the tactic it used in Mariupol: wiping the city from the face of the earth."

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Putin's losses exposed: 35,000 troops, 1,500 tanks and 217 planes just a fraction of cost - Express