Category Archives: Putin

WASHINGTON (AP) Former Vice President Mike Pence on Wednesday warned against the growing populist tide in the Republican Party as he admonished Putin apologists unwilling to stand up to the Russian leader over his assault on Ukraine.

Speaking at the conservative Heritage Foundation in Washington less than a month before Novembers midterm elections, Pence addressed the growing gulf between traditional conservatives and a new generation of populist candidates inspired, in part, by former President Donald Trump, who has transformed a large swath of the party.

Today, on the cusp of a new era of Republican leadership ... I think we need to chart a course that doesnt veer off too far in either direction, Pence told the think tank audience.

Our movement cannot forsake the foundational commitment that we have to security, to limited government, to liberty and to life. But nor can we allow our movement to be led astray by the siren song of unprincipled populism thats unmoored from our oldest traditions and most cherished values, he said. Let me say: This movement and the party that it animates must remain the movement of a strong national defense, limited government and traditional moral values and life.

To that end, Pence criticized those in the party who have pushed a more isolationist foreign policy, particularly when it comes to Russian aggression. Earlier Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared martial law for four illegally annexed Ukrainian regions as his forces have suffered stinging battlefield defeats and renewed attacks on Ukrainian cities and vital infrastructure.

Now, I know there is a rising chorus in our party, including some new voices to our movement, who would have us disengaged with the wider world, Pence said. But appeasement has never worked, ever, in history. And now more than ever, we need a conservative movement committed to Americas role as leader of the free world and as a vanguard of American values.

As Russia continues its unconscionable war of aggression to Ukraine, I believe that conservatives must make it clear that Putin must stop and Putin will pay, he added. There can be no room in the conservative movement for apologists to Putin. There is only room in this movement for champions of freedom.

Pence has been traveling the country, campaigning on behalf of Republican midterm candidates as he lays the groundwork for a potential 2024 presidential campaign. Some of the candidates he has endorsed have espoused the kinds of populist and isolationist views he seemed to take issue with Wednesday. Arizonas Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters, for instance, has labeled the Russia-Ukraine conflict a European problem and has criticized federal spending on Ukraine.

Pences speech largely focused on the conservative Freedom Agenda, which he released earlier this year. It serves as both a concrete policy plan for Republicans as well as an implicit criticism of Trump, who has spent much of his time since leaving office obsessing about the 2020 election instead of looking forward.

Pence, who again argued in his remarks that in order to win we must do more than simply criticize and complain, has been a target of Trumps ire since he refused to go along with the former presidents unconstitutional plot to try to overturn the will of voters in January 2021.

Pence once again stressed the importance of the oath he took when he was sworn in as vice president, adding that, The American people must know that conservatives will not simply pay lip service to keeping faith with the Constitution, but that we will always keep our oath that we will keep our oath, as the Bible says, even when it hurts and stand for the Constitution ... even when it would be politically expedient to do otherwise.

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Pence warns of 'unprincipled populists,' 'Putin apologists' - The Associated Press - en Espaol

Russias kamikaze drone attacks against Kyiv and other cities should be taken a serious turning point in the Ukraine war. The Iranian-supplied Shahed-136 drones, fired from hundreds of miles away and designed to detonate on impact, terrorising the civilian population, can unleash an astonishing wave of trauma. They are intended, as with his ballistic missile attacks on cities across Ukraine, to sap morale by indiscriminate killing and by damaging energy infrastructure as a harsh winter approaches.

No doubt, Putin will find they have no greater impact on the will of the Ukrainian people to fight on than Hitlers 10,000 plus V1 rockets fired at London and the south-east towards the end of the Second World War had on the people of Britain despite the devastation they faced.

But as the V1s did for the Allies, the kamikaze drones have the potential to force Ukraine to expend vast quantities of very expensive and finite countermeasures to protect the population. If Putin keeps up his campaign of aerial terror, it is likely to have a debilitating effect on the Ukrainian war effort hence Zelenskys repeated calls for increased supply of air defences from the West, and Britain in particular. We should provide that support immediately, and not underestimate just how many of these drones Putin is willing to dash at Ukraine, given his forces are failing on almost every other field of battle.

Ukraine has been making strong progress against Russian forces in the east and the south, where his forces are still suffering logistic shortages from the hammer-blow attack against the Kerch bridge between Russia and Crimea. All this alongside biting Western sanctions is causing growing disquiet among Moscows elites. Terrorising Ukraines civilian population is Putins way of mollifying his critics, a head-line grabbing stop-gap before mobilisation kicks in and he is able, as he hopes, to go back to the offensive when the ground freezes in November.

Mobilising men has already proven hard enough; replenishing munitions at the rate they are being expended a much bigger challenge. That is why Putin turned to his friends in Tehran who, according to Ukrainian intelligence reports, have supplied hundreds of drones to Moscow since August with an order of 2,400 in the pipeline. Also in the pipeline are Iranian ballistic missiles with ranges up to 400 miles which can be used against battlefield and civilian targets the first sold to Russia by any nation since the war began.

Tehran of course denies supplying arms to Russia, but despite their lies we are witnessing the emergence of an axis of evil beyond the Middle East where Putin and Khamanei have been collaborating in murderous aggression for years. The benefits for Putin are obvious but whats in it for Khamanei? It goes without saying that he will take every opportunity to back any enemy of the US, and the struggling Iranian economy needs roubles in exchange for weapons. The biggest state supporter of terrorism in the world, the munitions he supplies to his proxies have been on his own dollar, a major expense without any revenue.

Don't forget that Iran has also equipped Hizballah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza with drones and other weapons to attack Israel and to the Houthis in Yemen to attack Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Beyond those conflicts, the dangers of Irans growing drone programme and the implications of its axis with Russia are plain to see and should concern the whole world. Last year an Iranian kamikaze drone strike killed a British sailor and a Romanian captain aboard an oil tanker in the Gulf, and as protests built up across Iran two weeks ago Khamaneis Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched kamikaze drones and missiles into northern Iraq, targeting and killing Kurds who it blames, among others, for the unrest.

If the West is to protect Ukraine and frustrate Putin it must clamp down hard on Tehran and its widening participation in this conflict. The US and EU have been soft-pedalling over Iran, so desperate to secure a new nuclear deal that, bizarrely, Russian diplomats are still in the lead on negotiations. The consequences of continuing down that route will include releasing billions of dollars into Tehrans exchequer, some of which will be pumped straight into its weapons programmes, making Iranian support for Russias war in Ukraine even more deadly.

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Give Ukraine the weapons to kill Putin's terror drones - The Telegraph

Russian President Vladimir Putin.MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

Former MI6 head Sir Richard Dearlove said Wednesday that Putin could be out of power by next year.

He said Putin will likely enter a long-term medical facility and not return to power once he is out.

His predictions line up with other reports of Putin losing power and receiving medical treatment.

The former head of British intelligence predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be out of power by next year and in a medical facility for long-term illness.

Sir Richard Dearlove was head of the UK's Secret Intelligence Service, also known as MI6, from 1999 to 2004. He made the predictions about Putin on Wednesday during an episode of the podcast "One Decision," which he cohosts.

"I'm really going to stick my neck out. I think he'll be gone by 2023. But probably into the sanatorium, from which he will not emerge as the leader of Russia," he said, adding that the sanatorium would be a way to move Putin out of power without a coup.

Dearlove's prediction is in step with other recent reports suggesting Putin is ill and could soon lose power.

Bellingcat's Christo Grozev, an expert on Russian security, said last week top Kremlin security officials believe the war in Ukraine is "lost" and that Putin is losing his grip on power.

Ukraine's military intelligence chief, Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, told Sky News last week Putin was in "a very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick." Budanov also said he was "optimistic" Ukraine would prevail and that the war would be "over by the end of the year."

The former British spy Christopher Steele recently said sources told him Putin is seriously ill and regularly leaves meetings for medical treatment, contributing to "increasing disarray in the Kremlin." Steele, who led MI6's Russia desk for years, compiled the infamous Trump-Russia dossier, much of which was discredited.

The state of Putin's health cannot be confirmed, though his rumored conditions include ailments like dementia, Parkinson's disease, and blood cancer.

Dearlove also said there is no succession plan in Russian leadership, but said if Putin did enter a medical facility, the most likely person to step up is Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Security Council of Russia.

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The president of Tajikistan a close ally of Russia appeared to strongly rebuke Vladimir Putin at a summit of central Asian leaders and demanded that he showed respect.

Emomali Rahmon, the Tajik ruler since 1994, complained and appeared to scold an uncomfortable-looking Putin at a meeting at the Commonwealth Of Independent States Summit, a gathering of central Asian leaders, in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan.

"Yes, we are small nations, we are not 100-200 million, but we have history, culture, we love, we want to be respected," Rahmon said, according to Mail Online.

Rahmon continued his criticism claiming Tajikistan had to "beg" Russia "to attend some miserable forum in Tajikistan? But we are never being treated like strategic partners! No offense, but we want to be respected!" the Mail reported Rahmon as saying.

Rahmon also complained that African nations received better treatment from Russia, and asked Putin to commit to increase investment into the country.

According to the New Voice of Ukraine, Rahmon also told Putin not to treat central Asian countries as if they were still part of the former Soviet Union.

The outburst was witnessed by leaders from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and lasted for seven minutes, per MailOnline.

The incident follows surprising recent public criticism from India's leader, another ally of Putin, of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in September, India's Prime Minister Modi told Putin that "now is not the time for war."

"I know that today's era is not an era of war, and I have spoken to you on the phone about this," Modi told Putin, according to Reuters.

Modi's comments followed an acknowledgment by Putin that even China, Russia's closest ally, had "questions and concerns" about the invasion of Ukraine.

Opposition is also emerging within Russia from the elite of Putin's regime, according to reports.

Last week, Yevgenia Albats, editor of the Russian-language magazine News Times, told The Guardian there was growing discontent among Kremlin officials over th conduct of the war in Ukraine.

The Washington Post also reported that a member of Putin's inner circle had confronted the leader over the handling of the war in Ukraine, citing information obtained by US intelligence.

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Putin Endures Long Rant From Close Ally Complaining of 'Lack of Respect'

Vladimir Putin in power has brutalized millions as he careens into tyranny.

Yet Vladimir Putin out of power will bring its own brand of chaos: a Shakespearean knife-fight for power; unleashed regional leaders; a nuclear arsenal up for grabs.

For now, few want to publicly talk about that post-Putin world, wary of the perception of meddling in domestic politics. But privately, western countries and analysts are plotting the scenarios that could unfold when Putin inevitably departs and how Ukraines allies should react.

I will be careful speculating too much about the domestic political situation in Russia, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week when asked how the alliance was preparing for the possibility of the Russian leader leaving office.

Regardless of what different analyses may indicate, I think what we need to do at NATO is to be prepared for all eventualities and when it comes to Ukraine, be prepared to continue to support them, he said.

One consensus: It wont be a clean transition, posing myriad dilemmas that could strain Western allies. How much can and should they influence the succession process? What should they do if a Russian republic breaks away? What relationship should they pursue with Putins successor?

We should put aside any illusions that what happens next immediately is democracy, said Laurie Bristow, a former British ambassador to Russia.

What I think happens next, he added, is probably a time of troubles.

For now, Putin is in a safe position. He still controls the state apparatus, and the military is executing his murderous orders in Ukraine.

But the Russian leaders flailing invasion of Ukraine has diminished his position at home and deepened uncertainties over who would take over, and how.

To manage a stable succession when the time comes which will in Putins mind be a time of his choosing then you need a high degree of elite consensus, said Bristow, who served as the United Kingdoms envoy in Moscow from 2016 until 2020.

What theyve done now is break that consensus, he said, noting there is now more vying for power within the Kremlin.

That fighting could turn bloody once the Kremlins top job finally opens up.

This could get very Shakespearean, think King Lear, or [the] Roman Empire, like I, Claudius, or Games of Thrones, very quickly, said William Alberque, a former director of NATOs arms control center.

Alexander Vershbow, a former senior U.S. and NATO official, said the most likely scenario was still a smooth transition within Putins current inner circle but he conceded that toppling tyrants can beget turmoil. There could be internal instability, he said, and things become very unpredictable in authoritarian systems, in personalistic dictatorships.

Bristow, the former British ambassador, warned Western powers to stay out of such succession fights: I think we have to recognize the limits of our ability to influence these outcomes.

Although, the ex-envoy conceded, we certainly have an interest in the outcome.

Russia is sitting on the worlds largest stockpile of nuclear weapons, featuring thousands of warheads that can each inflict massive destruction, death and trauma on a population.

The arsenal has long been a source of Russian strength on the world stage and a dominant part of its global image for years, the possibility of a Kremlin nuclear strike dominated the public imagination in the U.S. and elsewhere.

In a period of leadership uncertainty, that arsenal could become a coveted symbol of power. That would put focus on the Russian militarys nuclear protector, the 12th Main Directorate, or GUMO.

Theres a real possibility, said Alberque, that there would be deadly competition competition to include people trying to rally different parts of the military particularly the 12th GUMO that controls Russias nuclear arsenal.

Put simply, Russia is the largest country in the world, stretching across 11 time zones and climbing from the Caucasus to the Arctic.

While Putin may seem to hold a despotic grip on that entire expanse, there are a number of Russian republics with more tenuous connections to Moscow and some with ambitious political figures. A power vacuum in a faraway capital could present an opening for local leaders to seize more control.

While most analysts believe the Russian Federation would largely hold together through a battle for Kremlin control, they acknowledge the Russian government has long feared fragmentation.

In the event of such factional fighting, all eyes will be on Ramzan Kadyrov, the brutal head of the Chechen Republic.

Does he throw his weight behind a competing faction? Or does he say, Im good with a decade of massive Russian subsidies now lets break off, and I can probably rule Chechnya and Dagestan; I can have my own empire here? said Alberque, now a director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Moscows invasion of Ukraine could also come back to haunt the Kremlin.

Vershbow, a former American ambassador to Russia, said there is a low probability of disintegration but noted that ironically Putins annexation of areas in eastern Ukraine could be cited as a precedent by separatist leaders inside the Russian Federation, to say borders are now up for grabs.

Once a new leadership team is in place, thats when the most bedeviling policy debates will begin for Western governments.

With Putin off the political stage, some officials in particular in western Europe may argue there is an opportunity to forge a fresh relationship with Moscow.

The U.S. infamously offered Russia a symbolic reset button at the start of Barack Obamas presidency, only to see relations deteriorate further. And Germany for years preached the gospel of economic engagement with Russia, only to declare a historic Zeitenwende, or turning point, after Moscows invasion.

With new leadership in the Kremlin, Germany may say oh, Zeitenwende, never mind. Lets push the U.S. to do another reset with the new Russian leader, Alberque said.

Inevitably, NATOs eastern wing would deplore such overtures. Theyd argue Russia never changes, Alberque said, and lean on allies to not recede from the more assertive NATO stance adopted since the war began.

Polish Minister for National Defense Mariusz Baszczak made exactly that point to POLITICO.

Russia in a version with Tsar as a leader was the same like Russia in a version with a secretary-general of Communist party as a leader, and now its the same as Vladimir Putin as a leader, he said.

What is important from our perspective, he added, is to isolate Russia.

For now, there is no expected Putin successor. But officials say they are expecting a regime with a similar ideology or one even more extreme.

Jnis Garisons, a Latvian state secretary, pointed out that Putin has already jailed critics and possible future leaders like Alexei Navalny, and only more hardliners on the outside are ready to step in.

The only people who criticize him and not in prison are from the right wing, Garisons said.

We should not fall victim to a junta or some group of people coming forward saying that they want a reset, said Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, if its still the same.

One major difference this time around is that Europe is now less economically dependent on Moscow, reducing a key incentive to re-engage.

We have gone a long way to stop buying from Russia, said a senior EU diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity. That would leave only the issues of nukes but that will largely be with the Americans.

Another signal Western leaders can look for is whether a Putin successor cooperates with international organizations seeking to prosecute Russian war crimes in Ukraine a possibility, of course, that seems remote.

Only a Russia determined to cooperate, would not represent a threat to Europe, said Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsk.

Yet for all the assumptions that a cooperative Russia is far off, several current and former officials cautioned that western governments must combine deterrence with a longer-term effort to engage Russian civil society.

The Western alliance, said Bristow, must consider how we reach out to Russian society beyond the Kremlin, to the next generation of Russian politicians, thinkers, intellectuals, teachers, businesspeople, to kind of spell out an alternative vision to the one theyve got.

My sense, he added, is that quite a lot of people in Russia would like to do that.

Paul McLeary contributed reporting

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Planning for the chaotic post-Putin world - POLITICO Europe

In considering U.S. strategy for Ukraine, fully understanding what drives Russian President Vladimir Putin is vital.Putin has often mentioned that as a young manin Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg), he once cornered a rat.The point of the story is that theratturned on Putin, causing him to beat a quick retreat.

The takeaway is whether the 70-year-old Putin is the young man today who realized that discretion was the better part of valorin confronting the rodent and withdrew.Or is Putin the cornered rat, in this case over Ukraine, that responds aggressively and attacks his enemy?

The second issue isbluff.While Putin did not directly assert that he would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, he did promise that Russia would not hesitate to employ all available means in defense of the motherland. Hisproxies,from academics to a former president and prime minister,Dimitry Medvedev, have been more direct in issuing that threat.And the Western press has been flashing warnings that a desperatePutin could resort to the nuclear option as his only way of winning in Ukraine. But would he?

Too often, foreign personalities areregardedas if they were American, behaving as we would and notas they will.Thislack of knowledge of other cultures has often been fatal.Vietnam, the second Iraq War and Afghanistan are monuments to these flaws.

Thepolitical realityis that any effort to understand an adversarys thinking often can be taken as capitulation or appeasement. Thats because recognizing actions on our part that provoked or causedevents that were detrimental to our interests in essenceassigns blame to us, something few administrations are happy to do. But seeking deeper understanding of others should never be taken as excusing adversarial responses merely toexplain them.

From the time Putin becameacting presidenton New Years Day 2000, he felt that the U.S. and the West ignored anddemeaned himand Russia.The U.S.s lack of respect and disregard for Russia explains why, in Putins view, the U.S. took a series of decisions (including NATO expansion; the second invasion of Iraq; and the arbitrary abrogation of theABM[anti-ballistic missile] andINF[Intermediate-RangeNuclear Forces] treaties) that Putin deemed intolerable.

That unease began in 2001, when President George W. Bush began Americas militarytransformation,making space and anti-missile defense top priorities and undoing, in Putins view, the strategic bargain that had been struck between the U.S., USSR and, after 1991,Russia.

But it was Bushs decision to launchIraqi Freedomin March 2003 and then the inexcusable blundermade in offering NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine atNATOs 2008 summitin Bucharest,Romania, that hardened Putins distrust of the U.S.Putin probably knew or assumed that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction and correctly reasoned that the war would throw the world into chaos.The NATO summitconvincedPutin that the West and especially the U.S. no longer took Russia as a serious player and would act without any consideration of Moscows interests.

Theintervention into Georgialater in 2008 and thenUkraine in 2014were unmistakable signs of Putins angst and anger over the Wests foreign policy.Further, Putins assessment of political disorder in the West, manifested by the Trump presidency and since, convinced him that weakness in the U.S. and NATO could be challenged with minimal risk.

Russiasmilitary exerciseson Ukraines borders in 2020 and 2021 and his demands not to expand NATO further east, not to offer membership to Ukraine and for a new strategic framework for Europe were rejected in late 2021.Whether his 2022 invasionwas deterrable or not remains unknown.

AsSun Tzucounseled, know your enemy.Clearly, in this case, we did not. So, is Putin the young man or the rat?Is his bluff real or hollow?The Biden White House is wrestling with these questions. Given no clear answer, the solution should be to hedge.

That means providing Ukraine sufficient equipment and support for conducting full combined operations. It means making certain China knows that if Putin were to go nuclear, almost certainly so would Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.A line of diplomacy with Moscow must be opened now. Otherwise, Putin could be the rat. And, worse, we could be the young Putin.

HarlanUllmanis senior adviser at the Atlantic Council and the prime author of shock and awe.His latestbook isThe Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large.Follow him on Twitter @harlankullman.

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Rats, bluffs and Vladimir Putin - The Hill

One of Vladimir Putins oft-quoted maxims is that sometimes it is necessary to be lonely to prove you are right. As his ill-fated invasion of Ukraine drags on, he seems to be heeding his own advice.

Putin looks increasingly isolated, not just on the world stage, but inside Russia as well. The longer the war goes on, the harder it will be for him to extricate himself with any credibility, either at home or abroad.

So where does he go from here?

In a recent United Nations General Assembly vote condemning Russias sham referendums annexing chunks of Ukraine, Putin was on the end of a thumping censure, with 143 votes in favour, 35 abstentions and five against (including Russia itself).

If the vote was any indication, Russia has precisely four friends: North Korea, Syria, Belarus and Nicaragua. As the anti-colonial movement Putin announced Russia would lead in his bizarre annexation speech of September 30, it hardly inspires confidence.

And among those who abstained from the vote, powerful actors with influence in Moscow including China and India have publicly signalled their disquiet about Putins war.

In the Middle East, where Moscow has tried building diplomatic clout around its highly questionable support for non-interference, both Qatar and Kuwait two energy giants have called for Ukraines territory to be respected.

Closer to home, all the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States abstained, with the exception of Georgia and Moldova voting in favour of condemning Russia, and Belarus that voted with Moscow.

On the home front, the picture is of a disconnected leader finding it difficult to keep rival factions in check. Recent criticisms of Russias top military leadership have targeted Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.

The chief malcontents appear to be Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of the Wagner group (allegedly a private military company, but in reality a military arm of the state) and Ramzan Kadyrov, currently the head of Russias Chechen Republic.

Aside from their opportunism and naked ambition, such critiques present Putin with a problem. He has previously been comfortable purging lower levels of Russias elite cadres: the military, the intelligence services and other parts of the Russian bureaucracy. But Shoigu is one of the most powerful people in Russia after Putin. While dismissing him would rid Putin of a potential rival, it would also upset a delicately balanced circle of patronage and power. That could end up rebounding on Putin himself.

Its true that Putin has contained rumblings among the population. The estimated 700,000 Russians who fled the country following Putins mobilisation order are no longer a potential hub for disquiet.

But if jockeying for position at the top feeds popular discontent, Putin may find himself trapped between two unhappy constituencies: the Russian citizenry with whom he broke his contract by sending them to war; and Russias elites who are expected to carry out his orders without question, and then take the fall when they fail.

There are signs this is already occurring. General Andrey Kartapolov, a member of Russias parliament, and until recently the head of its influential Defence Council, has called openly for the government to stop lying to the population about its military failures in Ukraine. The people know, Kartapolov observed, adding:

Our people are not stupid, they see they are not telling them the truth and this can lead to loss of credibility.

So how does Putin extract himself from this mess of his own creation? Realistically the only way to do so is to win the war in Ukraine, or at least to win sufficient concessions that would permit him to spin it as a victory.

However, thats now highly unlikely. Putin has broadened the parameters of the conflict by endorsing the narrative amplified by Russias far right that hes at war not only with Ukraine, but with NATO itself.

Putin evidently judged that necessary to rally flagging domestic support. But doing so also redefined his concept of victory. In order to win in Ukraine, Russias armed forces must now not only achieve their stated aims but dramatically exceed them, compelling the West to accept Putins demands for a new security compact in Europe on his terms.

Another problem for Putin is that Ukraine is unlikely to accommodate Putin, either on the battlefield or at the bargaining table. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already said he would only negotiate with Russias new president. He has also doubled-down on Ukraines war aims, amounting to the complete liberation of its territory.

The spectacular strike on the Kerch Bridge, sometimes referred to as Putins wedding band to Crimea was a direct insult to Putin, who had personally overseen its construction. In comparison to wilting Russian morale, it also symbolised the sense among Ukrainians that the wars tide had turned.

Read more: Crimean Bridge blast: experts assess the damage

Finally, Russias military position in Ukraine is now looking hopeless. Its forces are exhausted and they continue to retreat.

Putins decision to appoint Sergei Surovikin the general who ordered indiscriminate bombings in Syria and Chechnya to oversee Russias war has been uninspiring.

Indeed, his shift in tactics to mass cruise missile strikes against Ukrainian population centres and power generation facilities has backfired completely: it has made Ukrainians even keener to fight, and been seen globally as a vindictive act of petulance.

Unable to win on the battlefield, Surovikin has so far expended some US$400-700 million in missiles from a dwindling stock in an attempt to cow Ukraines population. This included hitting cities Russia had purportedly annexed, effectively targeting its own territory and people.

The upshot is that unless Putin chooses to escalate dramatically, even by crossing the nuclear threshold (which itself is fraught with risk), his only option is to find a face-saving way out.

Putin has recently tried to do that in three ways. Instructively, theyre at odds with his more customary violence and threats. They also suggest a growing sense that his position is untenable.

Turkish diplomats communicated Putins desire for a new grand bargain with Europe. This reportedly envisaged talks between Russia, the US and the EU. But doing so shut Ukraine out of the process, and little has come of the proposal.

An apparent attempt to weaponise SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who tweeted a peace proposal for Ukraine and warned Russia would use nuclear weapons if its Crimean Black Sea base was threatened. Despite denying he had spoken to Putin, Musks proposal closely matched Putins past demands, including specific details about access to fresh water for Crimea.

An overture from Russias Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, claiming Putin would be open to peace talks with US President Joe Biden at the upcoming G20 Summit in Bali.

Read more: Ukraine war: a desperate Russia defaults to attacking civilians

The West shouldnt react to these Kremlin hints. For one thing, they only restate its long-standing ultimatums. For another, Putin has ignored every previous diplomatic off-ramp offered to him, instead escalating his campaign against Ukraine ever more brutally.

Its also likely Putin will use any ceasefire merely as a pause to refashion his forces for a renewed onslaught.

To his credit, US President Joe Biden has already said he has no intention of meeting Putin, and the recently-released US National Security Strategy paints a picture of continued mistrust of Putins intentions.

Ultimately, if peace breaks out in Ukraine it will be something Putin must arrive at himself. Otherwise, it looks increasingly likely Ukraines armed forces will bring him to that realisation.

And although Putin would find any climb-down unappealing and embarrassing, he has already lost his dignity. It now only remains to be seen whether he can retain his political skin.

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Vladimir Putin is increasingly isolated in Russia and abroad. Does he have an exit strategy? - The Conversation

Its easy to forget that Vladimir Putin isnt the only genocidaire in Russia. Although the recently deceased Vladimir Zhirinovsky made a career of expressing outrageously candid remarks about dropping nuclear weapons on Russias neighbors and the West, there are, alas, many more bloodthirsty madmen in Putins crumbling realm.

One of the most distinguished members of this club is Pavel Gubarev, a leading pro-Russia separatist in the Donbas. In a recent video statement about Russias plans for Ukrainians, he intoned: They are Russian people who are possessed by the devil. We arent coming to kill them, but we want to convince them. But if you dont want to be convinced by us, then well kill you. Well kill as many as is necessary: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you. Until you understand that you are possessed and need to be cured.

Like Putin, Gubarev directs most of his venom at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: And the person who is most possessed is that Zelensky. He is the devils spawn. He is Hitler 2.0 with his rabid nationalism and his rabid Russophobia .

Strong stuff, this and crazy, too. Gubarev really uses the Russian words for kill (ubit) and exterminate (istrebit). Hes not speaking metaphorically. Hes evidently dead serious that Ukrainians must be physically destroyed. And he believes that Zelensky, like Adolf Hitler, must be wiped off the face of the earth. No matter that Zelensky is Jewish, that his family survived the Holocaust, and that his policies are both liberal and democratic.

But liberalism apparently is what rubs Gubarev the wrong way. As he goes on to state, Ukrainians are Satanists, as well as anti-systemic liberal consumers and stupid people who cant figure out whats going on.

If you think none of this makes any sense, youre not alone. But Gubarevs unhinged ravings are all the scarier because they typify the historical, political and cultural nonsense that passes for Russian official discourse in the age of Putin. Former Russian president and prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, also talks as if logic and veracity had no place in human speech. And Putins propagandists Vladimir Solovyov, Olga Skabeyeva and Margarita Symonyan can make Joseph Goebbels look and sound like a rational philosopher.

Naturally, the scariest part of Gubarevs statement is the casual way in which he informs Ukrainians that, if they dont change their identity, they will be exterminated. Gubarev should be frothing at the mouth; he should be turning red; his veins should be throbbing. Instead, he speaks of genocide calmly and coolly, as if he were delivering a weather report. Evidently, genocidal thinking has been internalized and normalized and not just by him. Its nothing unusual. Its just business as usual.

Which is why Gubarev counts off the millions one, five, or more as if he were engaging in a simple monetary transaction. Ukrainian have been reduced to numbers in his mind. They have lost their humanity. The only way they can reclaim it is by abandoning their Satanic liberalism and reidentifying themselves as Russians as Gubarevs and Putins and Medvedevs. But since the war has conclusively demonstrated that Ukrainians are unwilling to give up their language, culture, history and identity, genocide is Gubarevs and Putins, and Medvedevs, and Mother Russias only possible response. And genocide is precisely what Russia has been pursuing since Feb. 24, 2022.

The most recent genocidal action took place on Oct. 10, when Russia dropped about 100 missiles and drones on mostly civilian targets, killing at least 14. The shelling continues, and the targets have been and still are overwhelmingly civilian; five to 10 Ukrainians die, on average, per day. Small wonder that the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe voted to declare the Russian Federation a terrorist regime.

There is no talking to Gubarev, and there is no talking to Putin, Medvedev and their ilk. Given the right incentive, they might be willing to stop just short of killing all Ukrainians, but no more. Genocidaires dont negotiate genocide, after all.

More importantly, the Gubarevs, Putins and Medvedevs dont negotiate period. The persistent entreaties by some Western policymakers and analysts that Zelensky and Putin should please sit down and figure things out are, alas, dangerously nave, because they presuppose that Russias answer to Germanys Hitler actually wants to talk about anything short of Ukraines extermination. As history has shown, genocidaires stop only when theyve completed their bloody work or are stopped.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as Imperial Ends: The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires and Why Empires Reemerge: Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.

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Putins puppets who speak of genocide calmly and coolly - The Hill

Conscript-catchers have started conducting shady raids in Moscow and St. Petersburg, despite Vladimir Putin's announcement that his military mobilisation is drawing to an end and that he has no plans to recruit any more people.

At a news conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, Putin stated that the "partial mobilisation" he had previously promised, which the defence minister claimed was intended to bring in 300,000 soldiers, was nearing its conclusion and would be over in two weeks.

"Nothing additional is planned. No proposals have been received from the defence ministry and I don't see any additional need in the foreseeable future," Putin said of his on-going mobilisation.

Also read |Putin's mobilisation chief found dead under 'suspicious circumstances'

"Now 222,000 people have been mobilised out of 300,000. Within about two weeks, all mobilisation activities will be completed."

The news comes at a time when police and enlistment officers have been seen prowling around apartment complexes and on street corners, as reported by the Daily Mail.

Armed recruiters have even gone door-to-door in search of men for mobilisation, and there are rumours that in certain cases recruiting teams are employing facial recognition technology to catch evaders.

"They are acting like dog catchers. It's sickening how they are dragging men away as cannon fodder," said one commenter.

Men of mobilisation age were stranded by the entrance of the Polyustrovo Park residential complex in St. Petersburg while summonses were being delivered.

According to Ostorozhno News, summonses were delivered in bulk at subway stations in Moscow.

Police officers interviewed the men, took their personal information, and then served some of them with summonses, according to witnesses. Some individuals are driven away in police vehicles.

The well-known attorney and human rights advocate Pavel Chikov issued a warning about "growing allegations of raids."

Senator Andrey Klishas of the pro-Putin United Russia party demanded investigations into the legality of removing men from the subway and conscripting them into battle.

To find potential dodgers, the authorities are using databases from the police, traffic police, FSB security service, and residential landlords.

Even though it was promised to Russians that 1 per centof the male population would be deployed to Putin's war, they are also storming offices to remove men of mobilisation age.

The raids to capture conscripts appear to refute Russian assurances that the first wave of mobilisation has ended and that a second round has not yet commenced.

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`Cannon fodder` for Putin`s war in Ukraine: Russia`s conscript catchers snatch men off the streets - WION

So, here we are, living in the greatest country the world has ever known, caught between two world leaders, one of whom is mad and the other sad.

And Armageddon, which is the destruction of mankind, is lurking right around the corner waiting to be unleashed.

What did we do to deserve this?

On one hand you have madman Vladimir Putin, who has wrecked his country, threatening to use tactical nuclear weapons to ward off total humiliation and defeat at the hands of the Ukrainian freedom fighters.

On the other, you have the sad specter of Joe Biden, who has also wrecked his country, stumbling, mumbling and barely coherent, talking about Armageddon and the end of the world in off-the-cuff remarks at a fundraiser.

Someone should tell Joe that Armageddon is not a rock band.

The difference between Putins Russia and Bidens America is that people in Russia are seeking to a get out. In America they are seeking to get in.

Not only seeking, however, they are succeeding

The one thing the two do have common is that they are destroying their countries, Putin by a stupid and reckless war, and Biden by stupid and reckless policy, beginning with open borders and closed pipelines.

It would have been funny, if it were not so pathetic, to hear New York Mayor Eric Adams, a Democrat, faced with thousands of illegal immigrants bused into his sanctuary city from Texas saying, This crisis is not of our own making.

This is like Joe Biden, in his war on U. S. produced fossil fuel, blaming Putin for skyrocketing gasoline prices after he turned off the U.S. oil spigot.

Adams, who has declared a state of emergency in his city, in 2019 welcomed immigrants into the city, the way Biden waved in immigrants into the country.

Back then Adams, in words he is now eating, said To anyone in the world fleeing hatred and oppression, the ultimate city of immigrants wants you to remember youre always welcome here.

So, the illegal immigrants came. At last count some 19,000 illegal immigrants have recently arrived in New York. The New York school system has been overwhelmed with the enrollment of 5,500 new non-English speaking young students.

Adams welcoming remarks were like Joe Biden signaling to illegal immigrants from around the world that he would halt construction of the wall and open the borders to allow everyone in with few, if any, questions or exceptions. So they came.

Speaking about illegal immigrants at an event in 2019, Biden said, We could afford to take in a heartbeat another two million. The idea that a country of 330 million cannot afford people, who are in desperate need and who are justifiably weak and fleeing depression, is absolutely bizarre.

No. What is absolutely bizarre is the humanitarian crisis, which has now spread to cities like New York, that Biden created by opening the southern border in the first place.

Biden not only got his two million illegal immigrants, but he also got another one million so called getaways who under Joe Biden who are now roaming he country. Nobody knows who they, where they came from or where they are going.

He also got smugglers flooding the country with Chinese initiated deadly fentanyl, which is killing some 150 young Americans a day, not to mention the evil sexual exploitation of children and the racket of human smuggling.

Biden does a lot of talking, but he does not talk about the border, which he has never visited.

He is hiring 87,000 new Internal Revenue Service agents to investigate Americans, but not hiring a single Border Patrol agent to protect the border.

Biden not only deceptively opened the border, he also took an energy independent country and turned it into a beggar nation. He embarrassed America by abandoning our allies and helping our enemies in Afghanistan.

Biden has done more damage to the country than any president in history.

And he does not even know it.

Peter Lucas is a veteran Massachusetts political reporter and columnist.

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Lucas: No comfort in a world hanging between Putin and Biden - Boston Herald