Category Archives: Progress

June 27, 2017 by Chris Gebhardt

As the mid-way point of 2017 arrives, both of NASAs Commercial Crew Program service providers are making significant progress toward the first uncrewed test flights of their Dragon and Starliner capsules. At their second quarter 2017 meeting, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel noted this progress while also discussing outstanding concerns regarding the program and vehicles as well as the positive steps being taken to address these matters.

Commercial Crew progress:

During last months NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) second quarter meeting in Huntsville, Alabama, the panel noted the significant progress both Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCap) providers are making toward their first uncrewed demo flights.

Currently, SpaceX is on track to be the first to perform their uncrewed flight, known as SpX Demo-1, with Dr. Donald McErlean reporting to the ASAP that the flight continues to target a launch later this year.

Currently, both NASA and SpaceX hold that SpX Demo-1 will fly by the end of the year though L2 level KSC scheduling claims the mission has potentially slipped to March 2018.

Regardless, SpX Demo-1 will be followed under the current plan by Boeings uncrewed OFT (Orbital Flight Test) in mid-2018.

Notwithstanding the ultimate commencement of the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) flight operations, the ASAP noted its concern and recommendations regarding CCP provider System Engineering & Integration (SE&I) process and controls.

In her opening statement to the meeting, Dr. Patricia Sanders, ASAP Chair, noted the two recent mishaps of commercial launch vehicles.

While one of those two recent mishaps is obviously the AMOS-6 conflagration of the Falcon 9 during Static Fire last year, what the second one is in reference to is somewhat nebulous as mishap is not a word usually applied to situations that do not result in the loss of a vehicle.

Nonetheless, Dr. Sanders statement referenced both CCP providers, potentially pointing toward last years close call with the Atlas V during the OA-6 Cygnus launch or perhaps this years hydraulic issues as the second of the two recent mishaps.

Specifically, Dr. Sanders noted that In the case of two recent mishaps on commercial launch vehicles, the Panel believes that the underlying root causes could be traced to escapes on systems engineering and integration (SE&I) processes and controls, states the minutes from the second quarter ASAP meeting.

To this end, the ASAPs previously put forward a recommendation at a meeting in first quarter 2017 that NASA require the commercial crew providers to produce verifiable evidence of the practice of rigorous, disciplined, and sustained SE&I principles in support of NASA certification and operation of commercial crew transportation services to the International Space Station (ISS).

Based on the wording of the CCtCap contracts, both providers are allowed to utilize their corporate policies rather than NASA-traditional SE&I processes; however, the contracts also stipulate that NASA will confirm through documentation, requirements verification, and deliverables that both companys have adhered to SE&I principles.

Nonetheless, the ASAP remains concerned.

According to the minutes of Dr. Sanders remarks, the ASAP remains concerned that no amount of insight or oversight by the CCP can ensure that the appropriate level of engineering discipline and control is employed unless the providers have internalized the need for it and made it an inherent part of their corporate culture.

While each provider was not mentioned by name, the minutes reflect that one provider has a history of employing rigorous SE&I practices. However, they need to continue to ensure that these controls are not employed blindly but with an awareness of the rationale for doing so.

The other provider has placed a value on agility and rapid problem solving with beneficial results. They are also showing signs of evolving to reconcile their approach with the benefits and need for discipline and control.

However, they need to ensure that the evolution reflects an inherent desire to adopt the tenets of systems engineering.

Dr. Sanders opening statement closed with a reminder of an already-established ASAP recommendation that Regardless of the methodology employed, both providers need to demonstrate that the proper controls are in place to ensure hardware is properly qualified, hazards are identified and appropriately mitigated, and the system is employed within the constraints of that qualification.

As the meeting progressed (which covered a wide-range of NASA-related programs), Dr. McErlean presented a dedicated Commercial Crew Program briefing.

A large portion of this section, unsurprisingly, focused on the LOC (Loss Of Crew) gap between what Dragon and Starliner are independently capable of providing v. what the CCtCap contracts require of them.

As previously reported by NASASpaceflight.com, the CCtCap contracts establish a minimum baseline requirement that Dragon and Starliner each meet a LOC criteria of 1 in 270 meaning for every 270 flights, only one would result in an LOC event.

Currently, there is a gap in what the data analysis shows both Starliner and Dragon are capable of providing and that 1 in 270 requirement.

While NASA has rightly not made the current LOC number for each vehicle public (as both providers are still working on this requirement), Kathy Lueders, NASAs CCP manager, stated earlier this year to the NASA Advisory Council that I will tell you that we are having a hard time getting to 1 in 270. But were not done yet.

While it might seem arbitrary, the 1 in 270 number is actually linked directly to the Space Shuttle.

At the end of the Shuttle Program in 2011, NASA determined the Shuttle to have an actual LOC number based on all 135 flights of 1 in 65.

This number was used as an initial benchmark by NASA, which decided that all U.S. crew vehicles commercial or government from 2011 onward should meet a safety factor 10 times that of Shuttle, or an LOC requirement of 1 in 650.

That was quickly determined to be completely unfeasible by all parties involved, and a new obtainable benchmark of 1 in 270 was set.

However, after NASA set this requirement and signed the CCtCap contracts with SpaceX and Boeing, more stringent MMOD (Micro Meteoroid Orbiting Debris) protection requirements were imposed on everyone (NASA included).

This new MMOD requirement has made it challenging to reach the 1 in 270 LOC benchmark.

At the NAC meeting in March, Ms. Lueders stated that SpaceX and Boeing were still updating MMOD protection and a few other critical areas including looking at operational controls, and when we get through all that well be in a better place to talk about our final LOC projection.

At the ASAP meeting, Dr. McErlean reminded the panel that the LOC contract requirements were a recommendation of the ASAP and that the panel remains happy it was included because the requirement appeared to drive systemic behavior by both providers in making their systems substantially safer than they might have been without such an incentive and [that both providers] have achieved considerable progress from their initial LOC estimates.

However, Dr. McErlean noted that the threshold values [are] acknowledged to be challenging, and both providers are still striving to meet that precise number.

From here, a discussion that NASA might have to accept the risk and/or that waivers might have to be processed if the LOC requirement cant be met took center stage.

According to the ASAP meeting minutes, Dr. McErlean said that While these LOC numbers were known to be challenging, and both providers have been working toward meeting the challenge, it is conceivable that in both cases the number may not be met.

However, Dr. McErlean cautioned the ASAP and NASA about rushing to judgement on the current and whatever the final LOC number for each vehicle is.

The ASAP is on record agreeing with the Program that one must be judicious in how one applies these statistical estimates. In the case of LOC, the numbers themselves depend very heavily on the orbital debris model used to develop the risk to the system [as] orbital debris is a driving factor in determining the potential for LOC.

The orbital debris models have been used and validated to some degree, but they are not perfect.

One must be wary of being too pernicious in the application of a specific number and must look at whether the providers have expended the necessary efforts and engineering activity to make the systems as safe as they can and still perform the mission.

To that last point, Dr. McErlean reported that both providers indeed expended the necessary efforts and engineering activity to make the systems as safe as they can.

Importantly, too, Dr. McErlean noted that there was no evidence that spending more money on closing the LOC gap for both providers could [make] their systems considerably safer.

The ASAP at large concurred with this finding and noted their pleasure at the progress made in closing the LOC gap for both Dragon and Starliner.

However, the panel did discuss the possible necessity for NASA to do a formal risk acceptance of the variance from the requirement.

To this point, the ASAP discussed a recommendation of how NASA would do this including the need for a formal and complete presentation of the alternatives and the consequences as well as the rationale for the path that [is] ultimately chosen for risk acceptance before any such rationale is signed off on by the appropriate authority.

In this case, Mr. John Frost noted that that authority is likely at the highest levels of NASA.

Importantly, though, the ASAP meeting wasnt just focused on the panels concerns. Considerable time was dedicated to a discussion and review of the progress both providers continue to make and where each provider is in terms of schedule milestones for their first uncrewed demo flights.

Presently, Boeing is moving through software release for Starliner, and the Starliner STA (Structural Test Article) is progressing through its test regime.

Meanwhile, the first Starliner spacecraft the one that will fly the OFT mission next year has undergone initial power activation, and the builds for Starliner spacecrafts two and three are progressing inside Boeings Commercial Crew and Cargo Processing Facility at the Kennedy Space Center.

For SpaceX, Dragon has completed its first pressurized space suit test and final assembly of the craft for SpX Demo-1 has begun all while SLC-39A at Kennedy is undergoing final acceptance testing ahead of the upcoming installation of the Crew Access Arm onto the pads Fix Service Structure tower.

Moreover, the new, full-thrust (Block 5) Merlin 1D engines are in developmental hot fire testing at McGregor, and NASA has received the detailed CDR (Critical Design Review) of the engine for crew mission certification.

Finally, the ASAP noted that Both providers have completed parachute testing for landings and are moving into production and qualification.

Moreover, SpaceX and Boeing have implemented solutions to several issues flagged by NASA toward the end of last year, and very few new issues have been identified to date.

(Images: NASA, L2 Shuttle and L2 artist Nathan Koga The full gallery of Nathans (SpaceX Dragon to MCT, SLS, Commercial Crew and more) L2 images can be *found here*)

Excerpt from:

Commercial Crew providers making significant progress toward first flights - NASASpaceflight.com

A Ford Fusion navigates an autonomous testing site in Ann Arbor, Mich. Photo credit: FORD

ANN ARBOR -- Codrin Cionca's left hand grasps the roof-mounted grab handle while his right hand rests on his leg. Cionca, a Ford engineer working on the company's autonomous vehicles, puts the Fusion's transmission into L, which powers up the car's self-driving electronics. Then he moves his feet off the pedals.

We're ready to roll.

Mcity, located on the campus of the University of Michigan, is a test course for autonomous light vehicles with many of the traffic features of urban driving. There are roundabouts, traffic lights and stop signs, pedestrian crosswalks and other types of infrastructure that self-driving cars will someday have to interact with.

Of course, Ford wouldn't have invited reporters to ride along as observers if its fleet of autonomous Fusions couldn't flawlessly pilot themselves around Mcity. So, while I was not surprised the cars didn't swerve off the road, hit a pedestrian crossing the street or veer into the bicyclist ahead of us, I was impressed with how smoothly the car worked and how quickly it sensed and adjusted to its surroundings.

Engineers have long known they could build self-driving cars -- even before cars had cameras and computers and other high-tech gear.

They've been installing the building blocks for modern autonomous vehicles since the 1980s, starting with antilock brakes, traction control, electric power steering, drive-by-wire, adaptive cruise control, cameras, etc.

Now, as engineers tie these components together, along with lidar, radar and high-definition mapping, the car is basically becoming a thinking machine that is aware of its place in the world.

The Fusion test drive, for me at least, conveyed that the mechanical bits won't be the hard part. It'll be the computers and software that gets all the components to play nicely together that will be the toughest hurdle to overcome. Think of it this way: Imagine you are at a dinner table where everyone speaks a different language. That's what engineers are facing as they try to make dozens of different technologies work as a system.

When you consider the billions of dollars automakers and suppliers are investing in automated driving technology, you expect to see the fast progress that is being made.

I tested a Land Rover recently that basically drove itself short distances off the road using a technology called "platooning," where the vehicle communicates with the one ahead of it. So, even if the lines in the road are not clearly visible and vehicles don't communicate with buildings and traffic lights, self-driving cars, using high-definition mapping and other technologies, can still function safely in certain situations.

I believe it's going to be many years, decades perhaps, until self-driving cars integrate safely onto the nation's roads and transport passengers 100 percent safely 100 percent of the time. It's not because the technology won't be ready. It's already here, and it works today in places like Mcity

As we approach a roundabout, the Fusion slows itself smoothly, then enters and executes the turn, remaining in its lane, and then exits. No easy feat. But a roundabout is a perfect example of the difficulty engineers face as they develop self-driving technology.

"Roundabouts are considered to be very challenging for automated vehicle technology," says Helen Kourous, a Ford engineer. "They are very unstructured. No two are alike. You can find many different configurations. Human drivers can sometimes get confused in them," she says.

In geofenced areas, such as the parking lot at Walt Disney World, a gated community, or a college campus, Level 5 self-driving vehicles make perfect sense, and they will work. I can see Level 3 vehicles in a few years where vehicles can drive themselves on highways but must hand off to the human driver if they can't figure out a situation. And that's about really all we can expect in the next 25 years.

I don't expect in my lifetime to ever ride on a public road in a Level 5 car, you know, sitting in the back seat reading Automotive News as the vehicle whisks me to work.

See more here:

Progress on the road to autonomy - Automotive News (subscription) (blog)

HARRISBURG Gov. Wolf said Tuesday that state budget talks are going well. The evidence, however, has yet to be seen.

Pennsylvanias new fiscal year starts Saturday, and legislators have yet to say how they will fill a gaping shortfall for the fiscal year that ends Friday and raise the money to balance next years budget. Nor have they indicated what theyll approve in the way of spending on schools, social services, prisons, and the other business of state government.

Even the budget discussions have been particularly out of view.

ButWolf told reporters Tuesday afternoon that work is on track.

Im pleased with the progress were making, he said, adding, Things are really moving, but I think theyre moving in the right way, the way the democratic process is supposed to proceed.

The governor said negotiators still are talking about exactly how much the state will spend next year, and he sounded less than enthusiastic about two proposals for the state to increase revenues. Of the House-approved plan to expand gambling, including through the introduction of video-gaming terminals in bars, he said, I think it needs some work. On taxing drinks in bars at their retail rather than wholesale prices, he said:I havent seen exactly what the proposal is, but the general idea doesnt give me a warm and fuzzy feeling.

Earlier in the day, House Majority Leader Dave Reed (R., Indiana) said negotiators were still working to reach agreement on the main spending bill as well as on gambling expansion. And he indicated that House Republicans would look unfavorably upon a gambling bill that did not include video-gaming terminals, which face Senate opposition.

We sent a lot of revenue proposals over to the Senate over the last couple months, Reed said.Gaming with VGTs was one of them. Sent a lot of liquor proposals over to the Senate as well. Were certainly not going to rubber-stamp a revenue package that isnt at least respectful of the proposals we sent over.

Last July, the Assembly approved bills to pay for the annual spending plan nearly two weeks into the fiscal year. The governor let it lapse into lawby neither signing nor vetoing them.

Wolf said he did not know what he will do if legislators send him a budget bill Friday deadline day without the accompanying revenue package to pay for it or code bills to enact it. He said he would have to see what the circumstances were, and noted:I think the Senate is going to adjourn for at least a day for a wedding of one of its members.

Jennifer Kocher, spokeswoman for Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman (R., Centre), said that while Sen. Wayne Langerholc (R., Cambria) will be getting married Saturday, that is not why the Senate wont be in the building. Kocher said the Senate plans to finish the budget by Friday, and if that doesnt happen,well be at a breaking point where we can come back the following week.

Our schedule at this point has nothing to do with the availability of Sen. Langerholc, she said.

She criticized Wolfs mention of the upcoming nuptials.

It was not appropriate for the governor to bring up a members personal life in the middle of a press gaggle, she said.

Published: June 27, 2017 9:56 PM EDT

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Wolf sees budget 'progress;' evidence wanting - Philly.com

WHITEFISH After a year of working to bring diverse interests to the table to find better ways to manage forest and rangelands across the West, Gov. Steve Bullock said progress had been made but more needs to be done.

Bullock presented a report Tuesday on his National Forest and Rangeland Management Initiative at the Western Governors' Association meeting in Whitefish.

Im confident this initiative will inspire further commitment among western governors and our partners to continue working together, in a bipartisan way and on a collaborative basis, to promote the health and resilience of our forests and rangelands, Bullock said.

During a discussion Tuesday, the governors in attendance and other stakeholders said they were pleased with the progress to date. Governors have hosted workshops across the West in the last 12 months to begin the work of developing the initiative.

Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell said the idea of sharing stewardship and working across ownership boundaries with states and counties is vital.

The clear and unanimous agreement of what it will take to get things done on the ground is the most striking part'' of the report of the first year of the initiative, Tidwell said.

He said the Forest Service, for example, needs to adapt its National Environmental Policy Act process to accomplish the work thats needed today.

Were looking for ways to take on these larger landscapes and to be able to do the analysis so that were looking at not a few 1,000 acres, but more like tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of acres, Tidwell said. Thats what its going to take to really make the change on the landscape.

Mark Brinkmeyer, the chair of the Idaho Forest Group, said timber companies cant work without some certainty.

Increasing the scale of forest management is important, Brinkmeyer said. Partnerships and collaboratives are important. Through the collaboratives, our company has made significant investments, but they dont work unless we have certainty because they are subject to litigation.

The rules around collaboratives are that people around the table make decisions, come up with a plan and its implemented, he said. However, if someone is not at the table they can bring litigation and the issue stops. We lost several million acres and several million feet of timber this year due to litigation. That issue needs to be addressed and addressed now.

Lynn Scarlett of The Nature Conservancy said that group embraces the Western Governors Association initiative of partnership, integrated science and landscape stewardship.

The Nature Conservancy owns over 100,000 acres of land in Montana and more throughout the country. Scarlett said those lands are actively managed and have helped keep some family-owned mills in Montana operating by delivering tens of millions of board feet to the market.

Scarlett said the efforts outlined by the initiative are promising, but not durable without reliable funding.

Current federal funding levels are out-of-sync with the needs arising from catastrophic wildfire, she said. Six western states have had their most destructive wildfires in the last six years. Filling funding gaps by borrowing from other programs, including fuels treatment programs and actions that advance collaborative conservation, makes it difficult to make a long term difference on the landscape.

In 1990, 16 percent of the Forest Services budget went to fire suppression. Today, that number nears 60 percent.

Scarlett said the conservancy supports the Wildfire Disaster Funding Act, but beyond that, it supports a comprehensive solution that covers fire operations and reduces risks of catastrophic fire. It also supports a suite of programs for collaborative conservation and the science that ensures its effectiveness.

Tidwell said hes been talking for the past eight years about the need to restore anywhere between 65 million to 83 million acres of national forest. Each year, the Forest Service treats only about four million acres.

Were way behind the eight ball on this, Tidwell said.

Tidwell likens the tens of millions of acres that need restoration to deferred maintenance.

The longer it takes for us to get out there and really, truly accelerate the pace and scale, were just passing that on to the next generation, he said. I think we have the social advocacy today for us to be able to get more work done.

"Its going to take all of us. Its going to take the federal entities working together. Its going to take the states, counties and NGOs to actually be able to move forward.

Bullock believes the initiative is a good way to make that happen.

Read the original here:

Bullock says western states are making progress in better managing ... - Helena Independent Record

Kevin Williamson nailed the truth in his recent essay civil asset-forfeiture laws are indeed the death of due process. Justice Thomas sees that clearly and perhaps a majority will be persuaded the next time a case involving those laws reaches the Supreme Court.

However, the widespread opposition to allowing police to seize an innocent persons property simply on suspicion that it was somehow involved in or resulted from a crime is having an impact at the state level. In Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois, bills have either been signed or have reached the governors desk that make their laws less amenable to abuse by police who want to engage in some legal plunder. And in Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Court has ruled in an ugly case (a 72-year-old woman was going to lose her house because her son sold some drugs in it) that the Eighth Amendments prohibition against excessive fines applies to such forfeitures. That decision will cut into the profitability of civil asset forfeiture.

I discuss those advances in my latest Forbes article.

Sadly, Congress is sitting on its hands. A bill that would defang this viper as practiced by the federal government, the Fifth Amendment Integrity Restoration Act, is stuck in its respective Senate and House committees. Yes, Congress is busy, but in the past there has been heavy support from Democrats and Republicans for the legislation. Getting the FAIR Act passed shouldnt be terribly hard. Months ago, President Trump (after meeting with some sheriffs in Texas) indicated his opposition to reforming civil asset forfeiture, but it might be possible to get him to see that signing a reform bill into law would be most popular in lower-income and minority communities. If he wants to increase his support there, that would be a good move. In any case, repairing the damage civil asset forfeiture does to due process of law should need no political calculus.

See the original post here:

Some Progress against the Evils of Civil Asset Forfeiture - National Review

A DC-10 air tanker makes a drop on the Manzanita fire just south of Beaumont Tuesday, June 27, 2017. FRANK BELLINO, THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE/SCNG

Hand crews make their way up a hill to put out hot spots during the Manzanita fire just south of Beaumont Tuesday, June 27, 2017. FRANK BELLINO, THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE/SCNG

Firefighters work to put out hot spots during the Manzanita fire just south of Beaumont Tuesday, June 27, 2017. FRANK BELLINO, THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE/SCNG

Firefighters work to put out hot spots during the Manzanita fire just south of Beaumont Tuesday, June 27, 2017. FRANK BELLINO, THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE/SCNG

Cal Fire and Riverside County Fire Department crews make their way to battle the Manzanita fire just south of Beaumont Tuesday, June 27, 2017. FRANK BELLINO, THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE/SCNG

A helicopter makes a water drop on the Manzanita fire just south of Beaumont Tuesday, June 27, 2017. FRANK BELLINO, THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE/SCNG

Air tankers make drops as they battle the Manzanita fire just south of Beaumont Tuesday, June 27, 2017. FRANK BELLINO, THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE/SCNG

Fire crews make their way to battle the Manzanita fire just south of Beaumont Tuesday, June 27, 2017. FRANK BELLINO, THE PRESS-ENTERPRISE/SCNG

Flames from the Manzanita fire in Lamb Canyon south of Beaumont are seen all the way from Cal Fires headquarters in Perris on Monday, June 26, 2017. (Photo courtesy of Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Department)

Flames burn on a hill just off Highway 79 through Lamb Canyon between Beaumont and San Jacinto. The Manzanita fire broke out Monday afternoon, June 26, and closed down the highway. (Photo courtesy of Caltrans)

Thick smoke from the Manzanita fire rises from the hills south of Beaumont on Monday, June 26, 2017. (Photo by Micah Escamilla, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

Thick smoke from the Manzanita fire rises from the hills south of Beaumont on Monday, June 26, 2017. (Photo by Micah Escamilla, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

An air tanker flies out of a smoke plume put up by the Manzanita fire in the hills south of Beaumont on Monday, June 26, 2017. (Photo by Micah Escamilla, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

An air tanker flies overhead during the Manzanita fire south of Beaumont on Monday, June 26, 2017. (Photo by Micah Escamilla, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

Thick smoke from the Manzanita fire rises from the hills south of Beaumont on Monday, June 26, 2017, as a firefighting air tanker flies overhead. (Photo by Micah Escamilla, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

The Manzanita fire burns in the hills south of Beaumont at dusk Monday, June 26, 2017. (Photo by Micah Escamilla, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

Firefighters on the front lines of the 5,800-acre Manzanita fire south of Beaumont and Banning hope to capitalize Wednesday, June 28, on what was described as a pretty quiet day Tuesday.

Firefighters have been able to put in a lot of good work without any hiccups,Cal Fire/Riverside County Fire Department spokesmanCraig Doppmann said Tuesday evening.

It was still a critical time with a red flag warningin effect through 1 a.m. because of winds that were gusting up to 40 mph. But overall, The fires looking real good, not a whole lot of smoke, Doppmann said.

His cautious optimism was echoed by several residents of the areas that remained under an evacuation warning Tuesday. With the flames still a couple of miles away and barely any smoke visible, people said they were staying alert but their fears had mostly subsided.

About 1,300 firefighters and other personnel were battling the fire from the ground and air Tuesday.Doppmann said they made good progress on containment lines breaks created in the vegetation meant to stop the fire from spreading but officials want to make sure the lines hold before saying that containment has increased from the 20 percent reported Tuesday.

Were hoping by (Wednesday) morning that we will have a good strong line constructed,Cal Fire Capt. Lucas Spelman said.

Firefighters will be working in cooler weather. The forecast for Beaumont on Wednesday is for a high of 89 degrees, down from 97 on Tuesday. But that helps only so much, Spelman said.

The problem is we already have dry brush and grass, so that portion of the flammability is not going to change. So thats where the concern is, he said.

The evacuation warning which is a recommendation to leave voluntarily or be prepared if the evacuation becomes mandatory remained in place for homes between Highland Home Road south of Beaumont and Highway 243 south of Banning. That includes the mountain communities of Poppet Flats, Twin Pines, Silent Valley and Mount Edna,sheriffs officials said.

The warning will be re-evaluated in the next day or two, Spelman said.

A care and reception center was set up at Hemet High School, 41701 Stetson Ave., for anyone who chose to evacuate. Doppmann said a few people stopped by Tuesday.

Cindy Gray, who has lived in the Poppet Flat area for 16 years, said the large amount of smoke Monday worried her and her husband. The couple packed up their car in case they would be evacuated, like they were during the Silver fire in 2013.

As the smoke largely died down Tuesday, Gray and her husband became less worried and unpacked the car. Still, they were on alert.

A fires a fire its so unpredictable, Gray said. But were good, and we adore and pray for our firefighters.

Gray said local authorities have been doing a great job of keeping them informed of whether they are in danger.

Jake Sibole, who lives across the street from Gray, said he was still on edge Tuesday afternoon. He kept his car packed up, just in case.

This is Siboles first time living near a wildfire, and hes been watching local media closely for updates.

He said he was really worried Monday night when he received an alert on his cellphone telling him to evacuate now.

The Riverside County Sheriffs Department, intending to notify people affected by the evacuation warning via the Wireless Emergency Alerts system, accidentally sent a much more dire warning to a much broader group of people than intended, officials said.

After speaking with a fire official, Sibole said, he felt more at ease.

He told us to be prepared, and we took that to heart, he said.

At the base of the foothills on Highland Home Road, the western boundary of the evacuation warning, the Pipinger family owns a property with 15 horses, 20 cattle, dogs, cats and other critters.

Several family members came over Monday night to help them evacuate, Brandon Pipinger said.

When it became clear that wasnt necessary, they ordered pizza, put out some lawn chairs and watched as the air tankers flew overhead. The neighbors all kept in touch, just in case.

Several firefighters staged at the bottom of their driveway gave the kids a tour of their engines.

Since moving into the house about four years ago, the Pipingers have prepared in case they would ever need to be evacuated.

Living out here, we always keep documents, photos, everything packed just in case, Brandon Pipinger said.

A car crash on Highway 79 near the Lamb Canyon Landfill sparked the fire about 3:10 p.m. Monday. As the flames raced through the foothills, they charred 1,200 acres in the first three hours.

Highway 79 was shut down between the 10 Freeway in Beaumont and Gilman Springs Road in San Jacinto. All but one southbound lane reopened late Monday; the final lane opened up about 6 p.m. Tuesday.

A map displayed at the firefighters command post showed that as of Tuesday morning, the fire had spread about 5 1/2 miles east from its origin; the burned area measured about 1 1/2 miles from north to south. It was burning through the uninhabited northwest end of the San Jacinto Mountains.

The eastern edge of the fire remained about 2 1/2 miles away from Highway 243, the main route through the mountains populated areas, according to the map.

It showed that the portion of the fire that was officially contained was on the far western end.

More here:

Progress on 5800-acre Manzanita fire south of Beaumont breeds optimism - Press-Enterprise

How do ongoing advances in technology affect business management? Thats the question the prolific writing duo of Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee pose in their new book, Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing our Digital Future, being published on June 27 by W.W. Norton. Brynjolfsson, the Schussel Family Professor of Management Science at the MIT Sloan School of Management and director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, and McAfee, co-director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy and a principal research scientist at MIT Sloan, also collaborated in 2014 on The Second Machine Age, another exploration of the changes digital innovation is bringing to the workplace. McAfee recently talked to MIT News about Machine, Platform, Crowd.

Q: What is your new book about?

A: Machine, Platform, Crowd is the answer to a question: How should I think differently about running my organization in this era of crazy technological progress? We need to rethink the balance between the work that we ask human minds to do in organizations, and the work we give to machines. We need to rethink whether you have a product orientation or a platform orientation. And we need to rethink the core of an organization, if there are literally these hundreds of millions of strangers out there across the internet who you can tap into.

Q: Whats different now compared to past moments of technological change?

A: Within the past five years, 10 years easily, at least two really fundamental things have happened. First of all, artifical intelligence started meeting its expectations and even exceeding them. We werent expecting that, and its pretty remarkable. The machines are much more capable. The second thing is, in the era of the smartphone, we have gone from a globe that was pretty disconnected, to having that same human population for the first time deeply interconnected through powerful devices, which are each about as powerful as all the computers collectively on campus when I was an undergraduate at MIT in the 80s. Those are both legitimately new things.

Q: I know youve mentioned the rise of machines that can win at the game of Go as one instance of these advances. What are some of your favorite examples of machines, platforms, and crowds at work now?

A: Go is my favorite example of the power of machines, because it was so unanticipated that we would have a digital Go champion in 2016 or 2017. The insiders thought if that ever happened it would happen much, much farther out in the future.

In our section on products and platforms, we talk about companies like ClassPass, which is trying to build a purely digital platform; they dont own any assets, but theyre trying to provide a virtual, very broad gym membership, or exercise membership [by offering rates for an array of memberships]. So theyre putting a platform over the industry of spinning, yoga, pilates, kickboxing, things like that. And if you had asked me just a little while ago for an industry that would not be greatly affected by the digital transformation, I might have said group exercise: You get in the gym with other people and sweat and have a workout. But after working on the book, I think that the exercise industry is going to be changed a lot by platforms.

Finally, we came across a very interesting company called Quantopia that is trying to be essentially a crowdsourced quantitative trading hedge fund. That may sound ludicrous, except, as the founder of the company has said, it is extremely unlikely that all the worlds top algorithmic traders are employed by the [relative] handful of companies that have dominated this industry. So to test that theory, theyve been holding contests for algorithmic trading. It turns out, lo and behold, most of the people who win those contests are not insiders in the finance industry and have never even worked in finance. It tells me that if you can tap into the crowd and find the right brains, all over the world, and get them involved in what youre doing, the results are potentially tremendous.

Q: Whats the reaction to these ideas when you give talks about them?

A: The reception to these ideas is all over the map. It goes from outright skepticism to something a little more subtle, which is, This is great and interesting, but it doesnt apply to me. Ive come across a lot of that.

Q: Do you get pushback about your interpretation of the pace of innovation itself?

A: Yeah, its super-interesting. Inside the academic community and among economists there is a huge debate about how much innovation were actually seeing. The skeptics say, Where is the productivity growth, if theres so much innovation going on? Or they say, We had amazing periods of innovation in the past. Are we sure this one measures up? And those are important debates to have. But in every other community I try to be part of, and that includes investors, policymakers, entrepreneurs, and executives in mainstream incumbent companies, I dont hear any of that debate, or very little. What I hear instead is: Theres a lot coming at us, and we need to get on top of it and make it work for us.

When people say theres nothing new under the sun, I find that really valuable, because if all you do is talk to technologists, you just get caught up in the hype. Its almost inevitable. So I really value those discussions. But when I talk to almost anybody else, its something close to a foregone conclusion that were living in this remarkable era, and I happen to believe that as well. Not only can we sequence the genome, we can edit it with precision. If thats not a big deal, then I dont [know what is]. We only mention CRISPR briefly in the book, but the period that were in is one to me of monumental progress and innovation.

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Q&A: Running a company in an era of crazy technological progress - MIT News

Interventions for struggling students in the Portage Community School District were effective in 2016-17 and will see some changes in the coming school year, specialists reported to the School Board.

Kellie Kilde and Jolene Routson, intervention specialists at Rusch Elementary and John Muir Elementary, respectively, identified for the Board several trends theyve seen over the past school year, particularly in Tier 3 interventions, which are for students who test below the 10th percentile.

Students in Tier 3 interventions receive one-on-one help for identified skill deficiencies, but they still get classroom time with their peers. Students in Tier 2, meanwhile, are those testing below the 25th percentile, and while they might also receive some targeted interventions, it is to a lesser extent than for those in Tier 3, Routson said. Tier 1 is the basic instruction all students receive every day.

Interventions were held in grades K-6. In the spring, 10 percent of all students in K-6 were in Tier 3 interventions.

Interventions focus primarily on improving literacy, Kilde explained. We see the number of students in Tier 3 interventions increase at the end of kindergarten and throughout first grade, Kilde said, a trend that was expected, since, as we see kids get further into reading, (were) noticing where their errors are and how we can help them, to intervene early.

We also know that by intervening early with our younger learners, Kilde added, we decrease the need for long-term interventions, which aligns with our district goal (of) ensuring that all students are (performing) at grade level by third grade.

Interventions, as they are employed today, are relatively new in Portage, Routson said this week. Beginning four years ago, interventions have targeted foundational skills that are lacking, using state benchmarks, teacher input and other data to make decisions. I would say its just a more intentional process to catch students early, she said.

Every student is accounted and literacy plans are created.

Such work in recent years is paying off, Routson added. Were seeing more students graduating out of Tier 2 (than in the past). So were intervening early and with consistency and being intentional, closing the gap early so that they dont need Tier 3.

Interventionists are also seeing the number of students needing Tier 3 interventions drop in the higher grade levels, she said, which is exactly what they want to see, Routson said.

Interventions usually dont begin until the end of kindergarten, and in 2016-17 they didnt go beyond sixth grade. But last school year was the first time interventions were implemented at Bartels Middle School, and in 2017-18 they will also include the seventh grade.

Interventions in the middle school went well, Kilde told the board. As the year went on, everybody (at Bartels Middle School) was so invested and really looked forward to working with the data. The number of sixth-graders who needed Tier 3 interventions went down as the school year progressed, with those students transitioned into a monitoring approach.

Next year, Kilde added, the middle school will implement Tier 2 interventions, too, as staff there continues to be trained.

Students are tracked as they move through the interventions, sometimes qualifying for special education. Interventions, of course, depend on the student and grade level, Kilde said. In third grade students are moving out of phonics and into phonemic awareness developing their fluency and comprehension at which point the number of students needing interventions go up.

You see our numbers start (to go up), Kilde said, but we get them through intervention, and by end of the year (the numbers show) that we get them out of intervention by fifth grade.

Our numbers in fifth grade are quite low, Routson said, and we expect to see that with a successful intervention program.

Another change ahead includes some tweaking to interventions that involve math, though interventions will continue to focus mainly on literacy.

School Board President Steve Pate asked how often students who graduate out of interventions need to be brought back into them, to which Director of Student Services Barb Wolfe replied, very rarely.

Less than a handful over the past several years, Wolfe added.

Routson noted that some students who graduate out of interventions are put on watch.

We try to do a good job not dismissing them until were sure, she said, but there may be a student who slips a little and so we keep them on watch.

In 2016-17 the school district had eight interventionists across grades K-6. Next year, one of those eight positions will be split between Rusch and John Muir as half-time behavioral interventionists, along with dean responsibilities, positions that the district will be interviewing for in July, Kilde said.

Kilde in 2017-18 will be the elementary intervention specialist, supporting the interventionists in all five elementary buildings.

Routson is set to become the new principal of West Side Elementary in Mauston in July.

Follow Noah Vernau on Twitter @NoahVernau

See the article here:

Portage School interventions see progress, find 'consistency,' leaders report - WiscNews

I feel different, Montero said. I have more confidence in my pitching. It worked well today.

But the win came with drawbacks for the Mets. Michael Conforto, the teams best hitter this season, left the game in the sixth inning with a bruised left hand after he had been hit by a pitch. The Mets announced that Confortos X-ray showed no break.

Conforto, batting in the fifth inning, was hit on the hand by a high 92-mile-per-hour fastball from Giants starter Matt Moore and fell to the ground, grabbing his hand. Collins and the Mets head athletic trainer, Ray Ramirez, checked on Conforto, who stayed in the game but kept flexing his hand. He was back out in left field in the bottom half of the fifth but was replaced by Brandon Nimmo in the next inning.

I want to be back in there as soon as possible, Conforto said. But well see. Its pretty stiff right now.

Even without Conforto and Yoenis Cespedes, who was given the day off the Mets found enough firepower to overwhelm the Giants dreadful pitching.

Rene Rivera, the backup catcher, smashed two home runs in a game for the first time. First baseman Lucas Duda padded the Mets margin with a run-scoring double in the fifth inning.

Right fielder Jay Bruce put the game all but out of reach with a two-run homer in the eighth inning. It was the 20th of the season for Bruce, who reached that number for the ninth time in his 10 major league seasons.

An inning after Bruces home run, Curtis Granderson hit his third homer in the past five games. That gave the Mets 46 home runs in June a team record for any calendar month.

Montero, by then, was watching from the dugout as his teammates closed out his successful start.

Earlier in the day, Wheeler, who was put on the disabled list late last week with tendinitis in his right biceps, threw a full bullpen session. The Mets hoped Wheeler would miss only one start, but if he is not ready, Collins said, it will be good to have an improved Montero.

I hope this is what were going to see from now on, he said, adding later, Hopefully, this is a huge wake-up call that he can pitch in this league.

A version of this article appears in print on June 26, 2017, on Page D2 of the New York edition with the headline: The Mets Find Progress, And Hope for Montero, In a Sweep of the Giants.

Read the rest here:

Progress in a Sweep for the Mets, and in a Win for a Shaky Pitcher - New York Times

Jun 26, 2017 at 10:26 pm | Print View

CEDAR RAPIDS When you lose over 40 percent of your lineup to promotions all at once, you cant expect things to run silky smooth.

To be specific, the Cedar Rapids Kernels had 44.444 percent of their most-days regulars sent up to high-Class A Fort Myers last weekend. Wow, thats taking a hit.

The bottom line is itll take some time for the new Kernels to hopefully be the new and improved Kernels eventually.

Once you get changes like that, I think it takes awhile for guys to jell, Manager Tommy Watkins said, after his club fell to Burlington, 6-2, Monday night at Veterans Memorial Stadium. Weve got opportunities now for guys to step up and play. Theyve got to act like they want it, its not going to be given to them. Well keep working and try to put a lineup out there that we can compete with.

In case you missed it, shortstop Jermaine Palacios, outfielder Jaylin Davis, infielder Brandon Lopez and catcher Mitchell Kranson got moved up after last Thursdays game at Quad Cities. Thats two guys who played in last weeks Midwest League All-Star Game (Palacios and Kranson), C.R.s leading hitter (Palacios), its leading power hitter (Davis) and three guys (Palacios, Davis and Lopez) who spent time considerable time here last season.

In their place, the Kernels received switch-hitting first baseman Amaurys Minier, shortstop Gorge Munoz, outfielder Lean Marrero and utility guy Joe Cronin from extended spring training. Munoz, Marrero and Cronin all played last season in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, considered two steps below the Midwest League.

Minier signed with the parent Minnesota Twins in 2012 out of the Dominican Republic for $1.4 million, though his four-year career has been spotty to this point.

Cronin, I love his approach at the plate. He grinds at-bats out. Hes a pro, hes a baseball player. I like the way he goes about his business, Watkins said. Minier has got some pop, had a really good game the other day at Quad Cities. He gets himself in trouble sometimes just swinging in offensive counts instead of seeing the ball.

Munoz is a little guy, been pulling the ball and hitting it in the air a lot so far. Thats not his game. Hes got to be more of a line-drive, contact guy. Same thing with Marrero, though he had a much better night tonight.

Cronin didnt play Monday, with Minier, Munoz and Marrero combining to go 1-for-8 with three walks. Tyler Wells (4-2) has been the Kernels' best starting pitcher this season but was off from the first pitch, charged with seven hits and five runs (three earned) in four innings.

To make matters worse, Watkins said he had some shoulder soreness, an issue that put him on the disabled list earlier this season.

Burlington (32-42) won for the first time in five second-half games. Cedar Rapids is 41-34, 2-3.

The teams play again Tuesday night at 6:35.

Pretty ugly tonight, right from the start, Watkins said. Guys moping. Not good.

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