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In the middle of a major Covid outbreak, mitigations such as masks stop infections and help save lives. But over a longer period of time, the maths suggest the effects of public health controls may be much less pronounced. KEITH LYNCH explains.

The above may sound troubling.

But everything you're about to read is informed by the key statistic that defines the trajectory of a Covid outbreak, the Reproductive (or R) number. You've likely heard this mentioned over the past two years. It came up frequently at last year's 1pm press conferences when Delta infiltrated Auckland.

A simple rule of thumb defines Covids future: when the R number is above 1, an outbreak is growing. When its below, its fading.

READ MORE:* Covid-19 NZ: The coronavirus pandemic will never really be over (but it is changing)* Covid-19 NZ: What's going on with the current Omicron wave?* Covid-19 NZ: Why the rising tide of cases doesn't tell the whole story

There are several iterations of R. R0, or the basic R number, outlines how many people, on average, an infected person would pass the virus on to in a population with absolutely no immunity.

This number is important because it tells you just how infectious a disease is and therefore how difficult it is to control. The first iteration of Covid was thought to have an R0 of about 3. Delta's was thought to be about 6.

R0 also tells us what proportion of a susceptible population needs to catch the virus before a Covid wave subsides, University of Auckland computational biologist Dr David Welch explains.

This brings us back to population or herd immunity, a term you likely heard in 2020.

As the Mayo Clinic in the US outlines: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected not just those who are immune.

Permanent herd immunity is not possible with Covid, because our protection against infection wanes over time.

But Covid waves end once enough people are infected and (for a period at least) the virus has nowhere to go.

I'll illustrate how this dynamic works using an example from Welch.

"If R is 2 at the start of an outbreak, meaning each case on average transmits to two others, by the time half of the population has been infected and has recovered, the virus will only transmit to one other.

"That is because it tries to infect two people but finds that, on average, one has already recovered and cannot be reinfected. In this example, the R number is now effectively 1 and infections will start to fall."

In the above example, the R is 2. If it were 6 or 8, a whole lot more people need to be infected before you reach that temporary immunity tipping point. (Well get back to this.)

R doesnt tell us how deadly a virus is. If a virus imparted no symptoms at all it wouldn't matter how infectious it was. But that's clearly not the case with Covid.

Putting a number on Omicron subvariant BA.5s R0 at this stage of the pandemic is close to impossible as its spreading in populations with some immunity. A number of those I spoke to for this piece suggested Omicron's R0 wasn't that far off Deltas.

Four Australian academics recently published a piece where they estimated BA.5s R0 was in the range of 6 to 10. (In recent weeks, a claim that BA.5 had an R0 of 18.6 did the rounds. This isnt true.)

No.

What we can better determine these days is Re. This tells us how many people an infected person passes the virus on to in real-world conditions where spread is constrained through immunity or public health measures that change behaviour (such as masking or gathering limits). So you start with R0 and end up with Re.

This number changes over time.

Unsplash/Stuff

Long-term Covid restrictions are likely to be much less effective than many people think.

Back in March 2020, New Zealand knocked the Re below 1 by shutting the borders and locking down. Therefore, Covid was eliminated.

However, no country, other than China, has been able to knock the Re below 1 for sustained periods and avoided large outbreaks since the emergence of the Omicron variant.

You may be asking: how did New Zealand manage to keep Delta cases well under wraps over Christmas 2021 if it has a comparable R0 to Omicron?

The answer boils down to immunity. Omicron and its offspring may well be more transmissible than Delta, but its key advantage is its ability to sidestep our immune response.

The reason New Zealand enjoyed a relatively normal Christmas in 2021, even though Delta was in the community, was primarily down to mass vaccination reducing the spread of the virus.

Omicron spread like wildfire a month or so later (despite tighter restrictions) because it could evade that vaccine-induced immunity.

Imagine on one side there's the virus (defined by its R0) and on the other there's our efforts to fight back.

Ideally, countries want to stop a virus like Covid in its tracks, which means pushing the R number below 1 via public health measures. Just like we did in 2020, using lockdowns and closed borders.

We did the same around Christmas 2021 without lockdowns, with vaccination subbing in likely keeping R well below 1.

The game changed entirely with the emergence of Omicron and its ability to evade the protection against infection (but thankfully not serious illness) brought on by what was previously our best player vaccination.

This has led to an unpleasant Covid paradox. We are currently relying on infections to stop infections.

As Professor Michael Fuhrer of the School of Physics at Monash University in Australia puts it: An infection wave isn't like an ocean wave (once you dodge it, it is past) the infection wave ends because of infections.

This is the reality of 2022 we had hoped vaccine-induced immunity would take the place of millions of infections to keep Re close to 1.

As I mentioned, Omicron's high R0 means A LOT of people need to be infected before an outbreak settles down, and the Re falls below 1.

This dynamic has prompted a number of experts to point out that, over longer periods of time, public health measures now have a limited impact on Covid spread.

But at the same time others (internationally and in New Zealand) continue to call for a high suppression strategy to fend off Covid-19.

The argument goes: if we wear masks, isolate when were sick and breathe cleaner air, the horrors of this pandemic can be somewhat squashed.

Yet, as Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Adam Kucharski points out, it'd be good for the public to know what these appeals actually mean.

Kucharskis opinion is that many proposals for suppression (where Omicrons R number is pushed below 1 and Covid dies out) are actually just mitigation (where the R number decreases but remains above 1).

I know this appears awfully academic. It's not. If the R number cant be pushed down below 1, Covid will continue to spread until a proportion of the population is infected.

I didnt say that.

While we seemingly can't push the R number below 1 in the midst of an Omicron onslaught without infections, we can blunt it somewhat.

And again ... the higher the R0 or the more infectious a virus, the more people who need to catch it before you reach a level where enough are immune, and the virus has nowhere to go.

Ideally you want to infect as few people as possible to reach that point, particularly in a wave like this winter where hospitals are under severe stress.

One way is to gradually infect people, doing the best job of flattening that curve as you can, up until you reach that threshold, Dr Stephen Kissler, an infectious disease expert from Harvard University, tells me.

And the complete opposite strategy is to let it rip where you have a big surge, and eventually youll reach that (temporary) herd immunity threshold, but youll actually surpass it.

If a wave peaks at a lower point, fewer people are infected as it retreats.

In both of these scenarios, the population achieves the immunity threshold, but the former means far fewer people are infected, which, of course, results in fewer hospitalisations and deaths.

Flattening the curve essentially means restraining the Re as close to 1 as possible.

This can be done by bringing about immunity through vaccination or other via public health measures. Masks certainly have a role to play in any Covid duel.

How effective are masks then? Covid modeller Professor Michael Plank, of the University of Canterbury, pointed to a study from May looking at data from six continents that found (realistic and good) mask wearing could lead to a 19% drop in R.

Key takeaway: when were in the midst of a major wave, public health measures including masking can reduce sickness and save lives.

Over a longer period of time, the maths tell us the effects of public health controls are likely much less pronounced.

If countries cannot push the R number below 1 for a long period of time that is, they can only mitigate, not suppress, Covid then infections are essentially being delayed, not avoided.

Those New Zealanders who have evaded Covid so far aren't home and hosed. They are depending on their behaviour, of course more likely to catch it in the next wave.

Now, you might be screaming at me, saying, Keith! The R number only reached about 1.3 during the recent BA.5 wave. Surely we can knock off a measly 0.4.

But youre forgetting something. The only reason the R number hasnt been higher in recent weeks was because of all our immunity.

Ill explain this dynamic.

Imagine New Zealand achieved the impossible and managed to eliminate Covid again and keep it out for several years.

The problem would then be that in 2026 wed essentially be starting afresh with Covid. When Covid came back, the R number would once again be about 5 or so not 1.3 because our collective protection against infection would have vanished.

Of course, in real life we wont lose all our immunity in one clean homogenous block; itll wane unevenly over time.

Yet the quandary remains the same: we are now essentially reliant on immunity at this point mostly brought on by infections to get Omicrons R number down.

Numbers from Plank help illustrate the dilemma.

Lets say the current iteration of Omicron has an R0 number of 5. Across a population this means 80% will need to be infected to get the Re back to 1, Plank says. (And if immunity only lasts about a year, 80% will need to get infected each year.)

Now imagine New Zealand masks up very well and manages to bump the R number down to 4 (a 20% drop). An R number of 4 still means 75% of the population need to be infected every year to push the Re back down to 1.

Plank uses the following (admittedly imperfect) analogy.

It's a bit like being strapped to a pole with a bungee rope. Walking forward gets you further away from the pole but not as much as you'd like because some of your energy gets taken up in stretching the rope.

If Omicron's R0 is actually 8, then 87.5% need to be immune to bring Re to 1. Then a 20% reduction from mask wearing takes the R to 6.4, meaning 84.4% of people need to be infected. Therefore, a 20% reduction via masking has even less of an impact.

This, as Plank outlines, is where the maths of endemic infectious disease is quite cruel in the face of attempts to reduce the average prevalence of a highly infectious pathogen: some of the benefit of the intervention gets sucked up in compensating for the reduced level of immunity.

British Covid modeller James Ward put it like this: Actions taken to reduce transmission (ie lower R0) may have surprisingly weak effects on total infection rates. This is because they reduce infections, but also mean that more people are then susceptible, which pushes infection levels back up.

The net effect is still a reduction in total infections, but a much smaller one than youd expect.

Lets take a break for a moment here. I want to make a few things clear: masks and mitigations still have an impact.

Wearing a mask, particularly a good one, will reduce the chances of you catching Covid over a particular period of time.

As public health expert Professor Michael Baker pointed out in a recent interview with Stuff: If people isolated perfectly and wore masks perfectly, the pandemic would stop. If everyone did them well, the pandemic would stop or would trickle along at a very low rate.

At the same time we need to acknowledge people dont behave perfectly.

Baker also makes the following very valid point: While masks are imperfect, we have to use all the tools because we have limited options.

When taking a birds eye view of Covid battle strategy, we cant lose sight of the realities for New Zealanders who could get seriously sick or die. But at the same time, at a population level New Zealand should be aware of what the maths tell us about the future.

It would, of course, be much better to knock the R number below 1 via masking, working from home, better sick leave, ventilation and vaccination. And some will make the argument we can do that.

Baker also makes the argument that mitigations bring other benefits for example, suppressing the flu, which is significantly less transmissible than Omicron yet still kills a lot of people.

It may be that the cost-benefit equation of masking or ventilation still makes sense particularly in specific high-risk places like rest homes.

It may be that the reduction from 80% of people getting infected to 75% getting infected as in Planks model above is worth the cost.

It may also be the case that delaying some Covid infections, even if its only over a relatively short period, is beneficial particularly if new vaccines or treatments are imminent, Welch says.

And we know masks and other mitigations can certainly flatten larger peaks, protecting the health system.

But its becoming increasingly challenging to make the case that such measures will have a transformational impact on Covid that theyll push the R number below 1 in the long-term given what Covid now is and what weve seen around the world.

So while masking may not be very onerous in a population, public health professionals and politicians will need to ask is it worth spending huge sums on, say, ventilation if it turns out it will only reduce spread by, say, 20%. Maybe it should be spent somewhere else?

Fuhrer put it this way in a recent social media post: Suggesting there's some simple magic bullet with negligible impact to normal life, and all we need to do is care enough to do it, is highly misleading.

The reality is pushing Re below 1 is a bit of a red herring, Plank says. Right now, yes, its below 1 but again only because of immunity.

The key issue is that the longer Re stays below 1, the harder it gets to keep it there because there is less and less immunity in the population. The bungee starts pulling you more and more strongly back towards the pole.

So where does that leave us?

With a necessity for immunity. And right now thats being brought on by infection. Itd be much better if it was brought on by improved and regular vaccination.

Read more here:

Covid NZ: Why long-term Covid restrictions are less effective than advertised - Stuff

MARK TAYLOR/Stuff

Gloria Boulton talks about her husband Harley

Harley Boulton exceeded everyones life expectancy expectations after being one of New Zealands early heart operation patients.

The 79-year-old died in Hamilton on July 10, after 55 years of marriage to Gloria.

Harley was one of the first Kiwis to have heart surgery in 1964, when he was operated on by the late Sir Brian Barratt-Boyes at Greenlane Hospital.

Harley had undiagnosed rheumatic fever which resulted in the pericardium around the heart setting like concrete when he was 20-years-old.

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Hed previously led a normal life which saw him pig hunting and swimming at Taumarunuis Olympic pool.

He spent nine months in hospital waiting for the operation, with Harley describing himself as one who could no longer move like a young man, but like someone who was 100-years-old.

Having been given a 50-50 of success, Harley went under Barratt-Boyes knife, he was on the table for 7 and a half hours to have the calcium build-up removed from around his heart.

The operation cut across the chest rather than down the chest as it is done these days.

It wasnt until Harley was in his late 60s, having since moved to Hamilton, that he found out the extent of the operation and the unexpected run of life none of the medics thought hed be able to achieve.

And his heart was being held in the correct position by strings of sinew.

supplied

Harley Boulton worked on all types of diesel vehicles over the years

Gloria, who he met at the start of 1967, said the pair were married by the end of year and she soon had to look after him.

If he did anything juddery he would be sick in bed, so I wouldnt let him mow the grass, cut the hedge or dig the gardens, I took over all that too.

I liked it when he cooked meals, he would cook beautiful meals, and run me a bath after I had finished working outside.

Harley worked on diesel vehicles as an engineer, which took the family to the Cook Islands for three and half years, as well as Papua New Guinea and a stint in Fiji.

He was sent over to the Cook Islands to design and build a garage for all land vehicles attached to the new airport. Which included two fire engines and a rescue boat.

He had to fix anything that had a diesel engine, Gloria said.

He started getting sick at 40 year-old, and he was in and out of hospital. Eventually it was found the sinews holding his heart in position were breaking, meaning the heart was slipping out of position.

Harley never grew tired of fixing things. Gloria said he had a Morris 1948 car which he gradually put together in Hamilton.

It was called a cruiser, air conditioned - the top went back, and he had a winder and the windscreen went out. Its now in a museum in Auckland - because old cars like that you need to keep maintaining them.

The couple have five children: Timothy, Shane, Phillip, Keren and Terepai, along with 13 grandchildren and five great-grandchildren.

We had his 79th Birthday on the July 6 and the kids did a really lovely job, sat us like King and Queen, and they started discussing their memories of Papua New Guinea and Cook Islands where we had lived together.

Boulton was farewelled in Hamilton on July 27.

Continued here:

Harley Boulton, one of New Zealand's early heart patients farewelled - Stuff

After more than two years, New Zealand is fully reopening its borders and welcoming back all international travelers.

The country is reopening on July 31, some three months earlier than previously announced.

Earlier this year, New Zealand's borders were opened to Australians and citizens of 60 places that do not need visas to enter, including Singapore, the United States and the United Kingdom.

In 2021, New Zealand had some of the world's strictest pandemic restrictions, including lockdowns triggered by a single Covid case, extensive testing and numerous public health mandates.

Its largest city Auckland was on lockdown for 107 days, from August to December 2021, due to outbreaks of the highly infectious delta variant.

Many curbs have been lifted, but requirements to enter New Zealand remain stringent.Here's what to know before you visit.

With the exception of New Zealand citizens and Australians living in the country, visitors are required to provide proof of vaccination to enter, according to the government's Covid information page.

Both electronic and paper vaccination certificates are acceptable.

Travelers need to do a rapid antigen test on their arrival date although not necessary upon arrival at the airport and a second one on the fifth or sixth day of their trip, according to New Zealand's Ministry of Health.

Masks aren't required outdoors, but they're required indoors, such as in museums, supermarkets and pharmacies.

Despite inflation in New Zealand hitting a 32-year high of 7.3% earlier this month, Navigate Travel said prices of tours, activities and accommodations are the same price, if not cheaper, than what they were before the pandemic.

"(A holiday in) New Zealand's very cheap at the moment Other than air travel, there's never been a cheaper time to come," said Daniel Painter, the travel agency's managing director.

Since it was announced in May that the country's borders would fully reopen at the end of July, there has been strong interest from travelers to visit, said Tourism New Zealand.

"Online searches for international flights to New Zealand (are) up 39% since the announcement was made, compared to pre-Covid searches," said Gregg Wafelbakker, the tourism body's general manager for Asia. More than 60% of this interest is coming from Australia, he said.

However, Painter said that travel demand from Asia remains low, with visitors from the region coming mostly from Singapore.

The Singapore-based travel agency Chan Brothers Travel indicated a shortage of flights may be to blame.

"Travel demand to New Zealand has been healthy ever since the borders [reopened] to Singaporeans in May. However, due to flight availability, we do observe demand outstripping supply," said Jeremiah Wong, the agency's senior marketing communications manager.

After years of being locked out of New Zealand, travelers are indicating they are willing to spend more to travel for longer periods in the country, said Wong.

"An eight-day New Zealand tour was a popular choice before the pandemic, but we are currently seeing more interest and bookings for our 11-day tour that allows travelers to take in the sights at a more relaxed pace," Wong said.

Navigate Travel's Painter shared similar sentiments, saying that travelers "want the ability to be able to relax and not have to worry about things, but they also want to be able to get lots of bang for their buck."

Painter said hikes in the country's national parks, a scenic helicopter ride over Franz Josef Glacier, and whale watching near the town of Kaikoura on New Zealand's South Island are just some of the activities that tourists shouldn't miss.

A helicopter flight above the Franz Josef Glacier.

Peter Kolejak / Eyeem | Eyeem | Getty Images

After remaining in Singapore for more than two years, Lew Moe Kien, 60, and her husband, 62, visited New Zealand for 12 days in May just two weeks after its borders reopened to Singapore citizens.

They said locals were elated to have tourists back in the country, and that they were welcomed with open arms at restaurants and other establishments.

"The places we visited in New Zealand were not crowded at all," said Lew. "For many of the places of interest, it was only the two of us there."

Lew and her husband visited both the North and South Islands of New Zealand, including Hobbiton a popular destination for "Lord of the Rings" fans the glow worm caves in Waitomo, and the pancake-shaped rock formations and blowholes at Punakaiki.

Shirleen Tan, 46, a human resources professional from Singapore, is planning a trip to New Zealand with her family in December.

"We were looking for somewhere with warm weather, and New Zealand is one of the few warm countries in December," said Tan.

She said she is looking forward to visiting vineyards for wine tastings, eating fresh oysters at oyster farms, and "enjoying the beautiful scenery that New Zealand is famous for."

Continued here:

New Zealand's borders are fully reopening after more than two years

An Australian tourist has been seriously injured after she fell into the skin holethat opened up suddenly on a footpath near the entrance of Whakarewarewa thermal village in Rotorua, in central North Island. A local media outlet reported that part of the road collapsed due to thermal activity.As per the villages general manager, the womans husband was also injured while trying to help her out of the hole.

Speaking toAukaha News,Mike Gibbons, general manager of the village said, The first attempt to pull her out was by her husband, which is why he also received some injuries".Further, he told that two guides nearby and a local weaver ran to assist and they collectively managed to get the woman out of the hole.

However, the woman was taken to Rotorua hospital, where she was in a serious but stable condition on Friday morning. Her husband was said to be in moderate condition, reported Aukaha News. Gibbons further told that he understood that the couple is from Perth, Australia, and had been visiting family in NZ.

Whakarewarewa thermal village is a Mori village as well as a tourist attraction. Some of its geothermal hot pools are used for swimming and bathing, but others reach temperatures of 100C-200C and are used for cooking. TheFumaroles are geothermal sinkholes that emit steam and volcanic gases, often at extreme temperatures up to 400C.

The skin hole was about one meter deep and may have opened up due to recent heavy rain.A video broadcast on a media outlet showed steam rising from a sinkhole measuring roughly 2 square meters. Pictures of the scene appear to show a depth of roughly 1 meter.

As per the Aukaha News,The ground may have been compromised after the recent heavy rainfall, Gibbons said. He said everyone who lived and worked in the village was distressed at the incident. Our thoughts are with the family and particularly the lady, Gibbonsadded. The village will be temporarily closed until a full investigation and assessment have been undertaken by Worksafe New Zealands health and safety regulator and the local council, reported Aukaha News.

The rest is here:

New Zealand: Tourist falls in thermal sinkhole, 'distressed' villagers ...

FILE PHOTO - People prepare to go fishing from the Orakei Wharf as coronavirus disease (COVID-19) lockdown restrictions are eased in Auckland, New Zealand, November 10, 2021. REUTERS/Fiona Goodall

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WELLINGTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - New Zealand's borders fully re-opened to visitors from around the world on Monday, for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic closed them in March 2020.

New Zealand's borders started reopening in February first for New Zealanders and restrictions have progressively eased.

The process of reopening the borders ended last night with visitors who need visas and those on student visas now also allowed to return to New Zealand. New Zealand is now also letting cruise ships and foreign recreational yachts docks at its ports.

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Most visitors arriving in New Zealand still need to be vaccinated against COVID and must take two COVID tests after arriving. However, there are no quarantine requirements.

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Monday during a speech at the China Business Summit in Auckland that the final staged opening of the borders had been an enormous moment.

"It's been a staged and cautious process on our part since February as we, alongside the rest of the world continue to manage a very live global pandemic, while keeping our people safe."

International students were a significant contributor to New Zealand's economy and educational providers are hoping the reopening of the borders will again provide a boost to schools and universities around the country.

New Zealand Tourism Minister Stuart Nash said the return of cruise ships will also be a boost for local industries.

"Most cruise visits are during the warmer months of October to April, and summer is our bumper tourism season overall. This means it will be full steam ahead for the industry," said Nash.

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Reporting by Lucy Craymer; Editing by Sandra Maler and Michael Perry

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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New Zealand's borders fully open after long pandemic closure - Reuters

FILE PHOTO - New Zealand's Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern addresses the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, July 7, 2022. Dean Lewins/Pool via REUTERS

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WELLINGTON, Aug 1 (Reuters) - New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Monday that even "as China becomes more assertive in the pursuit of its interests", there are still shared interests that the two countries can and should co-operate on.

New Zealand has toughened its tone recently on both security and Beijing's growing presence in the South Pacific, in part due to the signing of a security pact between China and Solomon Islands earlier in the year. But at the same time New Zealand remains dependent on trade with China.

Ardern said in a speech at the China Business Summit in Auckland that while there were areas that mattered deeply to New Zealand and where the country's view differed from that of China, New Zealand was willing to engage.

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"We will also advocate for approaches and outcomes that reflect New Zealand's interests and values, and speak out on issues that do not," she said.

"Our differences need not define us. But we cannot ignore them," she said.

New Zealand has consistently expressed concerns about economic coercion, human rights infringement and particularly the treatment of Uyghur in Xinjiang, and democracy advocates in Hong Kong and most recently about the potential militarisation of the Pacific. On a number of occasions New Zealand has been part of joint statements on these concerns.

Ardern added managing the differences in the relationship between the two countries would not always be easy and "there were no guarantees."

She added that she looked forward to in-person ministerial visits and planned to lead a business delegation there when COVID measures allowed and that there was the potential for foreign minister visits between the two countries as well.

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Reporting by Lucy Craymer;Editing by Sandra Maler

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Even as China becomes more assertive, there are still shared interests, New Zealand's prime minister says - Reuters

EDINBURGH, Scotland (AP) Mark Chapman hit an unbeaten century as New Zealand powered to a seven-wicket one-day international victory over Scotland on Sunday with 25 balls remaining.

Chapman, who finished on 101 not out, mounted an unbroken fourth-wicket stand of 175 with Daryl Mitchell to ease the tourists past their target of 307 with 25 balls to spare at Grange in the one-off match.

Openers Martin Guptill and Finn Allen got the Kiwis reply off to a solid start with contributions of 47 and 50 respectively, but it was Chapman and Mitchell who provided the impetus despite Michael Leasks return of 2-46.

They came together at the start of the 24th over with the score on 132-3 and Chapmans knock, which included seven sixes and six fours, and an unbeaten 74 from Mitchell saw them home.

Matthew Cross and Leask had earlier produced a middle-order fightback to keep the Scots in the game.

The pair had put on 92 for the sixth wicket when Cross was caught behind for 53, leaving Leask to guide the tail before he eventually fell for a fine 85, which included four sixes and nine fours, from 55 balls.

Having opted to bat, skipper Richie Berrington saw openers Kyle Coetzer and Michael Jones make it to 46 before Coetzer went for 22, soon to be followed by Callum MacLeod, Jones for 36, Berrington and Chris Greaves to leave his side on 107-5 three balls into the 25th over.

Mark Watts 31 and 28 from Safyaan Sharif eased Scotland to 306 all out with two balls remaining with Michael Bracewell and Jacob Duffy both taking three wickets.

___

More AP cricket: https://apnews.com/hub/cricket and https://twitter.com/AP_Sports

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New Zealand powers to 7-wicket victory over Scotland - The Associated Press - en Espaol

Lewis Clareburt has beaten the Games record with a winning time of 4:08.70. Video / Sky Sport

All the action from day two at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham.

To view a full list of every result by every Kiwi athlete and team, check out our full schedule and results.

The All Blacks Sevens have blown a glorious opportunity for another Commonwealth Games gold.

Leading 14-0 with the hooter having sounded for halftime in their semifinal against Fiji, the Kiwi side opted to attack from midfield to try and extend their lead before the break, but threw an intercept, with Fiji closing the gap to 14-7 at halftime.

It was a mistake that proved pivotal in a chaotic conclusion to the clash.

Having led through a try to Regan Ware and a penalty try for a high tackle on Ware that reduced Fiji to six men for two minutes, New Zealand should have been comfortably in front. Instead, Fiji struck in the second half as well, levelling the scores, before New Zealand's comedy of errors continued.

On attack 20 metres out with time up on the clock, Tone Ng Shiu knocked the ball on, before Akuila Rokolisoa was yellow carded on the next possession for a failed intercept attempt.

A late tackle from Leroy Carter then saw New Zealand reduced to five men, and while they managed to send the game to extra time with desperate defence, their numerical disadvantage came back to bite them on the first play of the extra period. After New Zealand curiously kicked off deep to give away possession, Fiji raced away to move into the gold medal match.

Much like their female counterparts, the Kiwi men will now play for bronze, against Australia, at 8.12am. Australia were defeated 24-12 by South Africa in their semifinal.

A day of close calls and defeats for New Zealand cyclists on the track has extended in heartbreaking fashion.

Rebecca Petch was in line for a bronze medal with just one rider remaining in the women's 500m time trial, after a superb ride.

However, that remaining rider was Kristina Clonan, who set a Commonwealth Games record to claim gold by 0.06 seconds over Kelsey Mitchell, with Petch bumped to fourth.

Earlier, the Kiwi men's sprinters were unable to keep up with the feats of their peers, or their rivals on the track.

Callum Saunders, Sam Webster and Sam Dakin all bowed out early in the men's sprint.

Saunders was the first to go, finishing 17th in the qualification round which saw him miss the cut-off by just one place, edged out by Webster who took the 16th and final spot.

Webster was then quickly sent packing too by keirin gold medallist Nicholas Paul in the 1/8 finals, before Dakin, who was New Zealand's top qualifier in 10th, was beaten by 0.037 seconds by Shah Sharom to leave all the Kiwis to watch on from the sidelines for the remainder of the competition.

The Kiwi trio in the 25km women's points race also missed out on the medals, despite some combative rides.

Michaela Drummond, Bryony Botha and Emily Shearman all managed to take a lap on the field in the 100 lap race, but none could accumulate the extra points required in the sprints held every 10 laps to get onto the podium.

Drummond was the closest, being in the mix until the final laps, but the three leaders peeled off the front in the final laps and mopped up the remaining points, with Australia's Georgia Baker winning gold on 55 points over Scotland's Neah Evans on 36, with Eluned King of Wales in third on 32 points.

Drummond finished in fifth on 27 points, with Botha in eighth with 23 and Shearman ninth with 22.

There was better news in the qualification for the scratch race, with Campbell Stewart, Corbin Strong and George Jackson all advancing to the final at 5.42am.

The New Zealand triathlon relay team has missed the podium, finishing fourth.

Hayden Wilde had the Kiwi squad in second after the first leg, but 20 seconds behind England's Alex Yee as the hosts ran away to a big advantage, leaving the rest of the teams battling for second.

That battle was between Wales, Australia, Scotland and New Zealand, with the Kiwis in fourth after Nicole van de Kaay's leg, moving up to third following Tayler Reid's efforts as Scotland dropped away.

That left Andrea Hansen battling against Wales' Non Stanford and Australia's Sophie Linn for the remaining medals, and she kept in touch through the swim and the bike legs, but with her rivals both superior runners she fell away, with Wales taking a surprise silver, 46 seconds behind England, and Australia bronze, three seconds further back.

Hansen crossed the line eight seconds later for fourth place.

Kiwi swimmer Lewis Clareburt has qualified fastest for a second consecutive final, breezing into the final of the 200m butterfly.

Clareburt, who won gold in the 400m individual medley after being top qualifier from the heats, will have a chance for back-to-back golds after clocking 1:56:76 in his butterfly heat, edging Chad le Clos by 0.09 seconds, with Duncan Scott third, 0.72 seconds back.

Clareburt finished seventh in the event four years ago, but is now a serious gold medal hope. South African great Le Clos, aiming for a fourth straight title in the event, will be his biggest challenger.

The final is at 6.28am.

Clareburt is not the only medal contender in the pool, with Andrew Jeffcoat qualifying second fastest for the semifinals in the 50m backstroke.

Jeffcoat, who finished fourth in the 100m backstroke final, won his heat with a time of 25.04 seconds, with only 100m gold medallist Pieter Coetze going faster in the other heats, by 0.09 seconds.

Cameron Gray, who won bronze in the 50m butterfly, is also through to the semifinals with the 12th fastest time. Gray also moved into the semifinals of the 100m freestyle, in 14th.

On the women's side, Helena Gasson has qualified second fastest for the 50m butterfly semifinals, with her time of 26.52 good enough to win her heat and sit only behind Margaret McNeil amongst all qualifiers.

Vanessa Ouwehand also moved through to the semifinals with the 15th best time.

In the 200m breaststroke, Mya Rasmussen missed the final, finishing 10th.

Kiwi squash star Paul Coll has survived a scare to advance into the quarter-finals of the men's singles.

The world No 2 was expected to easily stroll through but was given a surprising test by world No 93 Emyr Evans, who won the first game 11-8.

Coll stormed back to win the next two games 11-0 and 11-5, but Evans again proved a tough opponent to put away in the fourth game, with Coll having to battle to win 12-10.

The Greymouth product will play world No 26 Adrian Waller at 11.45pm tonight in the quarter-finals.

There were no such issues for world No 5 Joelle King, who took down world No 62 Georgia Adderley 11-3 11-5 11-5 to cruise into the quarter-finals, where she will play Lucy Turmel (world No 28) at 11pm tonight.

Coll no longer has company in the women's draw though, with Kiwi Kaitlyn Watts losing to Joshana Chinappa 8-11 11-9 4-11 6-11 in the round of 16.

The Black Sticks men have picked up their first win of the Commonwealth Games, beating Pakistan 4-1.

After a bizarre 5-5 draw with Scotland to start the Games, there was less drama against Pakistan, hitting the front in the second quarter through two goals to Hugo Inglis.

Pakistan hit back before the interval but Dylan Thomas extended the lead before Sam Lane made it secure in the final minute.

The Black Sticks go top of their pool for the time being, with their next game a crucial matchup against Australia on Tuesday morning.

See more here:

Commonwealth Games 2022: Live updates of all the New Zealand teams and athletes on day three - New Zealand Herald

The two dug out a snow cave under a huge boulder. (Unsplash/Representative Image)

Two climbers who were buried in an avalanche and then caught in a blizzard in New Zealand earlier this week survived their ordeal by digging themselves out of the snow, building a snow cave and feeding on just muesli bars.

According to The Guardian, the two men, aged in their 20s, had set out on a three-day ice-climbing expedition in New Zealand's Remarkables mountain range when they triggered an avalanche that carried them 20 meters downhill. The pair, whose identities haven't been revealed, then dug themselves out of the snow and decided to call the police, who then alerted the Wakatipu alpine cliff rescue on realising the danger.

It's very steep and rugged terrain and it is mountainous and snowy when storms come out it can be a pretty inhospitable place, said team coordinator Russ Tilsley.

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The blizzard conditions in the region made it impossible for the rescue teams to reach them by helicopters and they failed in their first two attempts. It was getting late in the day and we decided it was too late to put a team in on foot we knew we had a beautiful calm morning the next morning, so we spoke to the guys and they were in good spirits, and they decided to build a snow cave, Mr Tilsley added.

As per the Independent, the two climbers then went back to their camp, where they spent the previous night, and dug out a snow cave under a huge boulder. The two spent the night inside the cave where it was relatively warmer. According to Mr Tilsley, while it was about -7 degrees celsius to -12 degrees celsius overnight on the slopes, it would have been around -1 degrees celsius to 0 degrees celsius in the snow cave.

The rescue team then checked on the men to find if they had enough food for the night. And the guy goes, well, you know I think we've got maybe 10-15 muesli bars, Mr Tilsley said. However, the pair had almost run out of fuel for their stove - needed to melt the water - which was a big concern as trying to melt the snow in the mouth for hydration can use up more energy than it provides.

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But after speaking to the duo, the rescue team found them in good spirits and decided to resume rescue operations the next day. The men survived the night and were rescued on Wednesday morning. As per The Guardian, Mr Tilsley said that the pair was little but shaken and they were pretty humble. He added that it was incredibly fortunate that the men had been on the edge of the avalanche when it was triggered.

They were lucky they were there and not 50 to 100 metres into the flow because they probably would have been dead, Mr Tilsley added. Further, he also went on to say that the men made the right call to retreat and wait for help.

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New Zealand Climbers Built Snow Cave To Survive Terrifying Avalanche - NDTV

A father of Chinese descent was viciously attack outside a North Shore Pak 'n Save. Photo / Supplied

Has New Zealand become an angry nation?

It's a strange question, but it's becoming difficult to overlook the evidence suggesting that this might be the case.

Some of the biggest headlines in the last fortnight have included a police officer being knocked out on duty, a racially motivated attack on a father at a North Shore supermarket, and racist abuse aimed at an off-duty cop.

The month of May saw 109 gun crimes reported in Auckland, there's been a 400 per cent rise in ram raids and we've also seen a string of random knife attacks.

These events may be on the extreme end of the spectrum of anti-social behaviour, but there are also smaller examples of this playing out across society.

Signs now hang regularly in restaurants and hospitals imploring visitors to be kind to staff a request that would have seemed utterly unnecessary in New Zealand only a few years back.

Supermarket shoppers also now get into screaming matches about whether they should or shouldn't be wearing masks.

This all points to a simmering anger that makes our interactions feel a little tenser than they once did.

New Zealand isn't alone in dealing with this issue. Over the weekend, a man was killed in a racist attack in Italy and the US has seen a massive surge in airline rage incidents.

Organisational psychologist John Eatwell tells the Front Page podcast it isn't surprising to see an increase in displays of rage in the aftermath of the Covid-19 restrictions, which placed enormous stress on people around the world, including New Zealanders.

Eatwell explains that prolonged periods of stress have a biological effect, that actually makes us more sensitive to stress the longer we stay in that state.

"If you've been through a stressful time, you end up with more receptors for stress effectively," he says.

"After the tough time we've been through, it's going to take something to actually start to reverse that."

While Covid restrictions on society have subsided, new stresses such as inflation, declining house prices and concern about a recession have emerged to heap further pressure on New Zealanders at a vulnerable time.

"All these things play on people's minds, even though they may not think they do. They sort of wear away at the back of your mind and ultimately that impacts your resources to deal with situations. So, people end up losing it, where they would've been able to retain control before.

"The second cognitive function to drop when you are under pressure and fatigued is your control and then the emotional part of your brain starts to take over."

The ongoing stress when combined with the impact of the pandemic has also likely contributed to a decline in trust across society, says Eatwell.

"Research into trust shows that when you have less trust, you get more violence, higher incidence of cardiovascular disease and a whole range of negative health outcomes."

Income disparity, explains Eatwell, is one of the biggest factors contributing to a decline in trust in a country.

Economic studies now show that the pandemic worsened inequality in New Zealand, largely driven by rising house prices and high inflation.

"For the first time in probably 15 years, people's disposable income is decreasing quite rapidly people are feeling the pinch. And that leads to lower levels of trust between the haves and have-nots," says Eatwell.

With society so emotionally charged after this period of prolonged stress, feelings of anger toward the Government are also rising, despite the fact that New Zealand's Covid response was applauded around the world. It also comes despite the fact that most of the societal restrictions have already been dissolved.

"People don't remember what you said or what you did, they remember how you made them feel," says Eatwell.

"That emotion is far more resistant to logic or situations changing That emotional anger about the mandates will remain for quite a long time especially in situations where they aren't acknowledged Unless we acknowledge it, it won't dissipate."

His comments do ring true when viewed in the context of the Parliament protest and Brian Tamaki's more recent disruption of traffic across Auckland. The risk is that if that strong emotional response isn't addressed, the vacuum will be filled by those who see an opportunity in it.

Charismatic figures like Brian Tamaki and Leo Molloy have shown a willingness to harness that anger to get people to listen to them.

"When people are in that emotional state and they have a grievance, they're looking for somebody to follow," says Eatwell.

"Those situations breed unique leaders who are basically prepared to acknowledge the emotions out there and say they can change them."

This isn't to say things need to stay like this. Eatwell says there are steps that both the Government and ordinary people can take to slowly ease the pressure squeezing society at the moment.

"I think there does need to be an acknowledgement of the anger rather than just putting it down to misinformation. We need to engage with all parts of society if we want them to be on board," says Eatwell.

"And I think the other part is that at a company or public sector level, we could be acknowledging much more that the current situation is hard with the residual impacts of lockdowns, Covid and house prices. People need to be supported by their leaders.

"There's a ripple effect to this. Research on both kindness and uncivil acts shows that if I do a small act of kindness to you, you're much more likely to be kind to the next person. Likewise, if I'm angry with you, you're also much more likely to be angry with the next person you see."

This change certainly won't happen overnight, but the onus of dissipating that anger can't lie solely with the Government.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am.

You can follow the podcast at nzherald.co.nz, iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Guns, rage and racism: Has NZ become an angry nation? - New Zealand Herald