Category Archives: NATO

Saudi Arabia is determined to secure a military pact requiring the United States to defend the kingdom in return for opening ties with Israel, three regional sources familiar with the talks said.

A pact might fall short of the cast-iron, NATO-style defense guarantees the kingdom initially sought when the issue was first discussed between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Joe Biden during the US president's visit to Saudi Arabia in July 2022.

Instead, a US source said it could look like treaties Washington has with Asian states or, if that would not win US Congress approval, it could be similar to a US agreement with Bahrain, where the US Navy Fifth Fleet is based. Such an agreement would not need congressional backing.

Washington could also sweeten any deal by designating Saudi Arabia a Major Non-NATO Ally, a status already given to Israel, the US source said.

But all the sources said Saudi Arabia would not settle for less than binding assurances of US protection if it faced attack, such as the Sept. 14, 2019 missile strikes on its oil sites that rattled world markets. Riyadh and Washington blamed Iran, the kingdom's regional rival, although Tehran denied having a role.

Agreements giving the world's biggest oil exporter US protection in return for normalization with Israel would reshape the Middle East by bringing together two longtime foes and binding Riyadh to Washington after China's inroads in the region. For Biden, it would be a diplomatic victory to vaunt before the 2024 US election.

A US official, who like others declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter, said the parameters of a defense pact were still being worked out, adding that what was being discussed "would not be a treaty alliance or anything like that ... It would be a mutual defense understanding, less than a full treaty."

The official said it would be more like the US relationship with Israel, which receives the most advanced US weapons and holds joint air force and missile defense drills.

A source in Washington familiar with the discussions said MbS had asked for a NATO-style treaty but said Washington was reluctant to go as far as NATO's Article 5 commitment that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all.

The source said Biden's aides could consider a pact patterned on those with Japan and other Asian allies, under which the US pledges military support but is less explicit about whether US troops would be deployed. However, the source said some US lawmakers might resist such a pact.

Another template, which would not need congressional approval, would be the agreement signed with Bahrain on September 13, in which the US pledged to "deter and confront any external aggression" but also said the two governments would consult to determine what, if any, action would be taken.

The source in Washington said Saudi Arabia could be designated a Major Non-NATO Ally, a step that had long been considered. This status, which several Arab states such as Egypt have, comes with a range of benefits, such as training.

The second of the regional sources said Riyadh was compromising in some demands to help secure a deal, including over its plans for civilian nuclear technology. The source said Saudi Arabia was ready to sign Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act, establishing a framework for US peaceful nuclear cooperation, a move Riyadh previously refused to take.

The Gulf source said the kingdom was prepared to accept a pact that did not match a NATO Article 5 guarantee but said the US had to commit to protecting Saudi Arabia if its territory was attacked. The source also said a deal could be similar to Bahrain's agreement but with extra commitments.

In response to emailed questions about details in this article, a US State Department spokesperson said: "Many of the key elements of a pathway towards normalization are now on the table and there is a broad understanding of those elements, which we will not discuss publicly."

"There's still lots of work to do, and we're working through it," the spokesperson added, saying there was not yet a formal framework and stakeholders were working on legal and other elements.

The spokesperson did not address specifics about the US-Saudi defense pact in the response.

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Saudi peace with Israel hinges on NATO-style defense pact with US - The Jerusalem Post

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Nato's 1bn venture fund offers defence start-ups an alternative to ... - Financial Times

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KORS, SWEDEN Inside the landing craft, the banter among the eight Swedish navy conscripts faded, replaced by a tense silence as they approached the Baltic Sea island of Kors.

To the sound of spent blank machine gun rounds rattling off the boats roof, the young soldiers charged through a narrow hatch onto the rocky shore shouting forward as instructors watched.

The drill, in which they tried to seize the island from colleagues role-playing an occupying force, marked the end of the largest military training exercise held in Sweden since the end of the Cold War, testing Swedish forces and 14 allies across the mountains, flatlands and archipelagos of the Nordic nation.

Stockholm was signaling to both allies and foes: the Swedish military is back.

After decades of cuts, Swedens military is recruiting soldiers, opening bases and sourcing modern hardware as the regions relationship with Russia freezes amid the Ukraine invasion.

At a NATO summit in Lithuania this July, Sweden hopes to finalize its year-long membership application as the 32nd member after neighboring Finland entered the alliance in April.

We are not seeking to join NATO just for our own protection, we also have much to contribute, said Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who arrived by attack boat to Kors to observe the Aurora training exercise on a recent weekday. Sweden can help ensure the security of others, that is an important signal which we are sending today.

Despite the governments rhetoric, Swedens military spending still falls short of NATOs guideline that a nations defense outlay at the very least should be approximately 2 percent of its GDP. In 2022, Stockholm allocated 1.3 percent of its economic output to its armed forces, the lowest of any state around the Baltic Sea, according to Stockholm-based security think tank SIPRI.The government says it doesnt expect to hit the 2 percent target until 2026.

On a beach on Kors, against a backdrop of small warships, machine guns and anti-tank weapon systems, Swedens top military brass said they will bridge the spending gap.

Navy chief Ewa Skoog Haslum cited upgrades to maritimeplatforms, including submarines and corvette class ships, while armed forces supremo Micael Byden noted a half-dozen new military units recently established acrosshiscountry.

Defense Minister Pl Jonson told POLITICO the downsizing of the Swedish armed forces following the end of the Cold War had gone too far and that his country was now on the correct trajectory.

The defense bill we adopted in 2020 involved a significant budget increase for all services, army, navy and air force. And after war broke out in Ukraine in February 2022, we increased the pace of that strengthening, he said.

Neutral in WWII, Sweden emerged as a respected regional military player in the years that followed. By the late 1950s, its air force was the fourth biggest in the world. It maintained deep reserves of conscript soldiers and developed cutting-edge submarine technology.

But following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Swedish lawmakers decided the threat from Russia was over. Successive governments in Stockholm cashed in on the peace dividend by cutting expenditure on arms and investing instead in hospitals, schools and other services.

Swedens defense budget dropped below 2 percent in the 2000s. The strategic Baltic Sea island of Gotland was demilitarized and conscription ended.

An unusually blunt statement by a top general proved a turning point.

During an interview with Swedish daily Svenska Dagbladet in late 2012, Swedens then-top military commander Sverker Granson believed if his country was attacked it could defend itself for about a week.

The statement sparked a fiery debate about what Swedes could expect from their military and how long its forces should be able to hold out.

In the wake of Russias annexation of Crimea in 2014, the military began a shift, with a new spending plan in 2015 underwriting the opening and reopening of military sites.

In 2019, Sweden re-inaugurated its giant underground naval base south of Stockholm at Musk.

The base, dug inside a rocky island in the 1960s, was designed to provide Swedish vessels with subterranean docks where they could be fixed and upgraded safe fromattack from above.

Keen to showcase the refurbished asset, Sweden hosted U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin there in mid-April. In a speech on the quayside, the U.S. official said he believed Sweden as part of NATO would help deter conflict including in the Baltic Sea region.

U.S. strategists, like their counterparts at NATO HQ in Brussels, as well as in Moscow, have long known that control of the Swedish coast and Gotland would be key to the outcome of any clash between the West and Russia in Europes northeast.

Swedens southern coast faces the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, the home of the Baltic Fleet, while Gotland lies close to key military and commercial sea lanes for Russias second city of St. Petersburg.

Nerves were set jangling last September when unidentified saboteurs blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines linking Russia with Germany close to the Swedish southern coast. Recently, a series of suspected spying operations run from Russian vessels have beenidentifiedby Scandinavian reporters.

For its part, Russia has sharpened its warnings to Sweden over recent years and said it will respond to an eventual accession of Sweden to NATO with military-technical retaliatory measures.

On Kors, as Aurora 23 neared its close, Byden, who took over from Granson as Swedens most senior soldier in 2015, addressed members of the newly formed fifth amphibious battalion, normally based on the west coast.

He said they were operating at a rare time of rapid military expansion in their country as spending increased 12 percent between 2021 and 2022.

Byden told them he believed the future looked bright for the Swedish armed forces.

We are on a historic journey with investments we havent seen in modern times, he said.

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Sweden scrambles to project military strength ahead of NATO bid - POLITICO Europe

Two air targets were detected approaching Russia's state border, Russia said. (Representational)

Russia said Monday it had scrambled a Su-27 fighter jet over the Baltic Sea to intercept two aircraft, one German and one French, which Moscow said had attempted to "violate" its airspace.

"After turning the foreign military planes away from the Russian Federation state border, the Russian fighter (jet) returned safely to its airbase," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.

The two aircraft were a P-3C Orion German patrol plane, and an anti-submarine patrol aircraft Atlantique 2, belonging to the French navy.

"The flight of the Russian fighter was carried out in strict accordance with international rules on the use of airspace over neutral waters," the ministry said.

It added that the Russian jet had carried out its operation "without crossing air routes or making dangerous rapprochement with an aircraft of a foreign state."

In April, Russia dispatched a fighter jet to escort a German naval aircraft over the Baltic Sea.

And in March, a US drone was downed in an incident involving a Russian jet over the Black Sea.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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Russia Says It Intercepted NATO Jets Over Baltic Sea - NDTV

US Navy fast-attack submarine USS San Juan sails into Limassol, Cyprus, in April. US Embassy Cyprus

In April, the nuclear-powered submarine USS San Juan docked in the port of Limassol in Cyprus.

The submarine's visit was "clear evidence" of the US and Cyprus's "shared commitment to promoting security and stability in the region" the US ambassador to the island country said after visiting the boat with recently elected President Nikos Christodoulides.

The visit illustrates the importance that Cyprus's government puts on its relationship with the US and the value Washington sees in the island amid rising activity and tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Located in the northeast corner of the Mediterranean Sea, Cyprus has a valuable position in an important neighborhood, providing a perch from which to watch activity in the Eastern Mediterranean and to reach into the Middle East and North Africa.

The Republic of Cyprus, as it's formally known, was subject to a US arms embargo imposed in 1987 and had developed close ties to Russia, but that dynamic has begun to reverse in recent years.

At a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing in April, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, head of US European Command and NATO's supreme allied commander, said Cyprus is ideally located for the US to project power into the Eastern Mediterranean.

The region is a complicated area "that has seen greatly increased competition as well as Russian naval presence in the past few years," Cavoli said, adding that US naval forces "work extensively down there" and that NATO is devoting a lot of attention to Russian activity in the region.

Russia maintains a naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus its only naval base outside the former Soviet Union and an airbase nearby in Hmeimim. Recent upgrades allow its airbase to support strategic bombers and its naval base to do more repairs for warships.

Russia was also a close military partner and a major arms exporter to Cyprus. In 2015, Nicosia struck a deal granting Russian ships access to Cypriot ports for replenishment. Cyprus is also a major hub for illicit Russian funds.

However, Nicosia has been moving away from Russia and pursuing a closer relationship with the US.

In 2019, Congress voted to increase energy cooperation with Cyprus and other countries in the region. In 2020, the US partially lifted its arms embargo so non-lethal equipment could be exported to Cyprus, and last year, it fully lifted the embargo.

"Sharing an equipment set with another nation creates a strategic bond as well as a practical bond that is very useful," Cavoli said at the hearing when asked about the importance of Cyprus buying American rather than Russian or Chinese weapons.

"We keep a strong military-to-military relationship with Cyprus," Cavoli said.

Cyprus has expanded its military exchanges with the US, including formalizing its relationship with the New Jersey National Guard under the US's State Partnership Program in March. That agreement allows Cypriots "to engage in various training and joint exercises on issues ranging from counter-terrorism to emergency response" said Andrew Novo, a professor of strategic studies at the National Defense University.

Cypriot and American units have already conducted joint exercises and the US is training Ukrainian troops on the island.

Nicosia has also undone some of its ties to Russia. Following Moscow's attack on Ukraine in February 2022, it scrapped the 2015 deal and barred Russian ships from its ports.

Christodoulides, who took office in March, has "strong Western credentials" and wants to continue his predecessor's efforts to bring Cyprus and the US closer and "to promote Cyprus as a force for stability in the Eastern Mediterranean" Novo told Insider.

Burgeoning US-Cyprus ties would appear to benefit NATO, but not all of the alliance's members are happy about it.

Following USS San Juan's arrival in April, Turkey publicly backed a statement by the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus a breakaway territory that only Turkey recognizes that criticized the visit.

The Turkish statement described the US as taking actions "at the expense of disrupting the balance on" Cyprus and called on Washington "to reconsider these policies."

Novo said he doubted that Ankara had "a genuine objection" to US warships visiting Cyprus. "These activities present no real concern for Turkey and are not militarily significant for Cyprus," he added, calling the submarine's visit symbolic. (US submarines also visited the island in 2022 and 2021.)

Rather, Novo added, Turkish leaders are "uncomfortable with the new close ties between the US and Cyprus."

Since Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974, the island has been divided between the Greek-speaking Republic of Cyprus, which is internationally recognized, in the south and the Turkish-speaking region in the north, which still hosts some 20,000 Turkish troops.

"Putting out an official press release criticizing the docking of an American ship is a way to make a little noise and remind Washington that closer relations with Cyprus make people in Ankara unhappy," Novo said.

Growing US ties to Cyprus is only the latest issue to come between Washington and Ankara, whose relations have deteriorated in recent years, driven in part by warming Turkish relations with Russia.

Turkey bought Russian S-400 air-defense systems which prompted the US to expel it from the F-35 program and opposed sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine, and Ankara is now suspected of helping Moscow avoid those sanctions. In April, Russian and Turkish leaders unveiled a Russian-built nuclear power plant on Turkey's southern coast.

Turkey remains one of NATO's largest militaries and occupies strategically important territory in the alliance's southeastern corner. It also hosts alliance forces, including US nuclear weapons.

Asked about Turkey's relationship with NATO during the April hearing, Cavoli said he would "defer" to civilian leaders on policy issues but added "that there is a sharp difference between our military relationships and our other relationships when it comes to some countries."

Constantine Atlamazoglou works on transatlantic and European security. He holds a master's degree in security studies and European affairs from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. You can contact him on LinkedIn.

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The US's growing friendship with Cyprus is a problem for Turkey - Business Insider

Taiwan

Former British PM says Taiwan is on the front line of the global battle for freedom during trip that China has called a dangerous political show

Free nations must commit themselves to a free Taiwan and must be prepared to back it up with concrete measures, Liz Truss has said in a keynote speech in Taipei, in which she called for an economic Nato to tackle Beijings growing authoritarianism.

The former British prime minister said she had come to show support for Taiwan, which was on the frontline of the global battle for freedom, under threat from a totalitarian regime in China. Truss arrived in Taiwan on Monday for a five-day visit, and is expected to meet senior government officials.

Truss, who was prime minister for 44 days in 2022 after serving as foreign secretary for the year prior, is the most senior British politician to make the trip since Margaret Thatcher, and drew a rebuke from Chinas UK embassy, which said the visit was a dangerous political show which will do nothing but harm to the UK.

Beijing claims Taiwan as a province of China, and Xi Jinping has not ruled out using force to achieve what he terms reunification. Taiwans government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule, and a potential conflict and its fallout are of key concern to the global community.

We cannot pretend we have meaningful deterrence without hard power, Truss said in a speech and panel discussion for a Taiwan thinktank, the Prospect Foundation, on Wednesday. If were serious about preventing conflict in the South China Sea we need to get real about defence cooperation.

Truss said the world could not rely on the UN security council or the World Trade Organization, and instead called for a network of liberty, with free nations working together to develop an economic Nato to coordinate pushback against Beijing.

She said the G7 which will meet this weekend in Hiroshima needed to coordinate economically against Chinese economic coercion, saying bullying on a major scale was taking place across the international area.

Truss said Beijing was using Taiwans international participation as a strategy, and called for Taiwans membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to be fast-tracked and approved and Chinas denied.

Truss is a hawkish member of the British Conservative party, and her speech appeared to rebuke comments made by current members of government and their European counterparts. Last month the UK foreign secretary James Cleverly singled out climate change as an area in which engagement with China was needed, saying it would be a mistake to isolate Beijing.

On Wednesday Truss said there were too many mixed messages from the free world, which she blamed on a false idea that the west could still cooperate with China on some issues.

The current prime minister, Rishi Sunak, must make good on earlier comments when he declared China the biggest-long term threat to Britain, she added. She called for the shutting down of UK-based Confucius institutes, and for the UK to rule out the resumption of economic dialogue with Beijing, saying: We cannot have more integration with the Chinese economy.

She said Beijing was already working to make itself economically self-reliant whether we want to decouple from the economy or not.

Truss also appeared to swipe at recent comments by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, saying it was completely irresponsible for European nationals to wash their hands of Taiwan because its a long way away or not a core part of our concerns.

Her speech was critical of the Chinese Communist partys rule over China, referring to the Tiananmen massacre, human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and the crackdown in Hong Kong.

Truss is the latest in a long line of foreign dignitaries to arrive in Taiwan, often drawing rebuke from Beijing, which objects to any action that appears to give credence to Taiwans sovereignty.

After the then US speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August, Beijing drastically increased its military harassment of the island, setting a new normal, the head of the Prospect Foundation said before Trusss speech.

Asked whether she considered the potential for her visit to worsen the security situation in Taiwan, Truss said Taiwans government had invited her and they were best placed to understand what will help.

[Beijing] are trying to limit visits, trying to silence Taiwans supporters and intimidate people internationally, she said. I think we need to stand up to that bullying.

An editorial in the Chinese tabloid Global Times on Tuesday night repeated a criticism by Alicia Kearns, the chair of the UK foreign affairs select committee, that Trusss visit was the worst example of Instagram diplomacy.

These types of ugly performances are attracting fewer and fewer audiences, the Global Times said.

Chi Hui Lin contributed to this report

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Liz Truss in Taiwan calls for economic Nato to challenge China - The Guardian

Washington

As the world waits for Ukraine to begin its anticipated spring counteroffensive against Russia, NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoan is cautioning China not to provide military support to Moscow as Russia continues its brutal and illegal invasion.

"We have not seen yet signs of China delivering military weapons to help Russia, but we know that discussions are going on," Geoan told VOA in an interview Friday. "This will be a very, very serious decision by China that will be affecting not only their relationship with us, but the reputation of China and the rest of the world."

Russia is the "aggressor" in the Ukraine war, and arming Moscow is "something that we condemn very, very, very, very strongly," he said.

At the Pentagon Monday, Pentagon press secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder told reporters the U.S. has communicated to China about "the negative consequences of providing lethal aid to Russia."

"Not only would it extend the duration of this, of Russia's illegal occupation of Ukraine, and result in thousands of innocents killed in Ukraine, [it] would also squarely put them in the camp of countries that are looking to eliminate Ukraine as a nation," Ryder said.

In April, responding to persistent Western concerns that Beijing would provide military assistance to Russia, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang said China would not sell weapons to either side in the war in Ukraine.

Geoan, who supports Ukraine joining NATO, told VOA that countries such as Ukraine and Georgia should "have no veto from an external power like Russia about their own destiny."

"The truth of the matter [is] that it's not Russia's business what kind of decision I make for my own country. It's up to me, to my people, to my elected leaders, to make a decision where and how I want to live my life," he said.

Russia, which spans 17 million kilometers (10.5 million miles) and 11 time zones, will never be "encircled by NATO," he added, calling suggestions as such from Russia "propaganda."

Officials say Ukraine has been conducting shaping operations ahead of the planned assault.

Geoan told VOA the front lines in Ukraine were "fluid," with NATO seeing indications of Ukraine gaining territory along the western side of the embattled city of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged patience as Ukraine continues to delay the offensive.

"We still need a bit more time," he told reporters last week.

Geoan told VOA he trusts the judgment of the Ukrainian leader.

"We know that Ukraine has the capacity to launch a successive counteroffensive, but we also know that Russia has the capacity to put forward a significant resistance," he said.

Military experts believe the war in Ukraine will increasingly pit quantity against quality in the coming months.

Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, NATO Military Committee Chair, told reporters last week that Russia will "have to focus" on larger numbers of conscripts and poorly trained mobilized people while using older weapons like the Cold War era T-54 tank, which he said is still plentiful in Russia's stockpiles.

"The Ukrainians focus on quality with Western weapons systems and Western training. That's the big difference," Bauer said.

But NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. General Christopher Cavoli, says that while Ukraine has severely degraded Russian ground forces, "in other domains, the degradation has been much less noticeable."

Lessons learned from Afghanistan

Russia's invasion of Ukraine came just six months after the U.S. and international forces' withdrawal from Afghanistan, which resulted in the Taliban retaking control of the country.

Geoan told VOA that NATO members are "obliged" to learn lessons from the Afghan withdrawal, which he called a "difficult" and "traumatic decision."

"We should not turn a blind eye to the things that we have done well and things we have not done well," he said.

More than 120,000 people were evacuated in August 2021, but tens of thousands of Afghan allies were left behind. An Islamic State terror group attack on Kabul's international airport during the evacuation killed more than 170 people, including 13 U.S. servicemembers, and a U.S. drone attack that was meant to target the attacker instead killed 10 civilians.

"I have colleagues in NATO that are still having a difficult time knowing that we left so many Afghans back," he said.

Since the international pullout, the Taliban have restricted women's access to education and banned women from working with international aid groups. Poverty has been rampant.

Army General Michael Kurilla, the head of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this year that Islamic State's branch in Afghanistan, known as Islamic State-Khorasan, would be able to conduct terrorist attacks in Europe and Asia "in under six months with little to no warning."

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NATO Deputy Chief Cautions China Against Arming Russia - Voice of America - VOA News

When NATO leaders gather in Lithuania in July, they will return to a question that has haunted the alliance ever since its ill-fated Bucharest summit in 2008. While articulating a process for Ukrainian accession is not the most urgent matter, doing so has become unavoidable.

STOCKHOLM With NATOs mid-July summit in Vilnius fast approaching, the question on everyones mind is how to avoid another debacle concerning Ukraines prospective membership in the alliance. When NATO leaders addressed the same issue in Bucharest 15 years ago, they failed to reach a credible agreement about how to address Ukraine and Georgias aspirations for membership. We have all been living with the consequences.

In the run-up to the 2008 summit, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili persuaded US President George W. Bush that NATO membership was the best option for their countries. Bush, in turn, promised that he would deliver a NATO decision in Bucharest. It didnt end well. French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were hostile to the idea, arguing that Ukraine and Georgia were not ready for membership, and that one should not risk alienating Russia.

The first point was undoubtedly valid with respect to Ukraine, not least because large segments of Ukrainian society firmly opposed to NATO membership. It had been only a decade since NATO bombs fell on Belgrade, so the question of joining the alliance was still highly divisive. Had membership been put to a referendum, it is unclear what Ukrainian voters would have decided.

Obviously, Russia, too, opposed the idea. Russian President Vladimir Putin made that clear when he joined the summit (these were different times) and delivered a speech essentially denying Ukrainian statehood. The audience was stunned, but he has stuck unwaveringly to that position for years.

In the event, NATO leaders forged a compromise that represented the worst of all possible worlds. While the alliance made clear that Georgia and Ukraine ought to become members, it hastened to add that accession would not happen then and there. The door to future membership appeared to have been opened, both fanning the flames in Russia and inflating the hopes of those who supported the idea.

Yet neither side had any real foundation for believing what it did. NATOs fuzzy compromise did not really pose a threat to Russia because it did not really bring Ukraine and Georgia materially closer to membership. Until Putins illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine maintained a policy of neutrality vis--vis Russia and NATO.

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Nonetheless, the legacy of NATOs Bucharest debacle has remained a burden to the alliance ever since. Now that there is a renewed push for Ukrainian membership, the issue will take center stage in Vilnius. The situation has changed profoundly since 2014. Russias full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year has rendered fears of provoking the Kremlin moot, and the question of NATO membership is no longer highly divisive in Ukraine. Putins war of aggression has fully united the country in support of it.

Still, the politics of the issue are no less complicated than they were 15 years ago. Plenty of policymakers in Washington and other Western capitals are wary of bringing Ukraine into the alliance too quickly. It remains unlikely that two-thirds of US Senators are prepared to ratify NATO membership for Ukraine in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. The problem is not only that some Republicans oppose a blank check for Ukraine; it is that Joe Bidens administration and congressional Democrats will not want to hand Donald Trump a useful issue with which to support his America First re-election bid.

Moreover, NATO membership for Ukraine arguably is not the most pressing issue at the moment. While the prospect of the US deploying troops to the frontline battlefield of Bakhmut is a long way off, maintaining a strong, consistent flow of military and financial support to Ukraine is urgent and fully achievable as long as there is political will for it. In the months ahead, concrete support will be far more useful to Ukraine than formal commitments on paper.

Nonetheless, the trauma of Bucharest will hang over this years summit. Many of NATOs Eastern European members feel strongly that now is the time to correct past mistakes and flesh out the vague, unspecified promise that was offered 15 years ago. Another Bucharest-style debacle, they warn, would haunt the alliance for years to come.

In the end, the wordsmiths will have to produce a solution that provides a clear path to Ukrainian membership even as it falls short of immediate accession. Unlike in 2008, there can no longer be any doubt that membership will come one day. Ukraines security is key to European stability, and that will remain the case for decades. Resisting aggression and safeguarding Europe are the reasons why NATO was created in the first place. At stake in Vilnius is not just Ukraines future but also that of the alliance.

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The High Stakes of NATOs Vilnius Summit by Carl Bildt - Project Syndicate

An election representative shows a ballot depicting a vote for Kemal Kilicdaroglu at a polling station in Ankara, Turkey, on Sunday. Ali Unal/AP hide caption

An election representative shows a ballot depicting a vote for Kemal Kilicdaroglu at a polling station in Ankara, Turkey, on Sunday.

Turkish voters will return to the polls on May 28 for a runoff election after longtime leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu both failed to win more than 50% of the vote on Sunday.

The presidential contest comes at a pivotal moment for the country, which is grappling with issues from high inflation to the aftermath of the deadly February earthquakes that left more than 50,000 dead and millions homeless. Many in Turkey have criticized the government's slow response and see the election as a referendum on it.

There are also implications on the world stage: Turkey, which straddles Europe and the Middle East, is a key member of NATO.

It has maintained relations with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine and played a major role in pushing for peace talks and brokering a Ukrainian grain export deal aimed at easing global food shortages. Turkey recently cleared the way for Finland to join NATO, but is blocking Sweden from joining the alliance (over concerns that Stockholm is harboring groups, including Kurdish militants, that it considers terrorist organizations).

Kilicdaroglu a former bureaucrat who leads Turkey's main secular opposition party has spoken about restoring Turkey's relationships with the U.S. and Europe (while maintaining its relations with Moscow).

Erdogan has taken steps to consolidate presidential power during his 20 years in charge, raising concerns about democracy and human rights.

Turkey has been fulfilling its commitments within NATO despite Erdogan's rhetoric while also creating some difficulties for it, notes Alper Cokun, a retired Turkish diplomat who is now a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

He says the outcome of the election could potentially mean big changes for NATO and the region as a whole.

"A lot is at stake not only for Turkey but also for beyond," says Cokun.

Despite concerns about Turkish democracy and human rights under Erdogan's tenure, he remains popular with his conservative base and defied pre-election forecasts by taking 49.4% of the vote on Sunday.

Erdogan seems to have been able to "tap into the public sentiments" better than his opponent, Cokun tells Morning Edition's A Martnez. But he adds that it wasn't exactly a level playing field, since Erdogan had the "full force" of state media behind him and could promote a certain narrative.

Erdogan's reputation has evolved in the years since he came to power, Cokun explains.

The leader who once advocated for Turkey's accession to the European Union is "no longer seen very much as a like-minded person among Turkey's Western allies."

Cokun attributes that to democratic backsliding, multiple forms of misconduct and the government's earthquake response, which many see as underscoring the problems with the centralized form of government and executive presidential system to which Erdogan had transitioned the country.

"Initially he's had a good relationship and good standing, including with the U.S. But with a changing trajectory and more disruptive actions on his part I think though the U.S. or Europe doesn't say it in so many words they wouldn't have minded a change in political guard in Turkey," Cokun adds.

Erdogan faces his strongest challenge so far in Kilicdaroglu, a former accountant with a reputation as a clean politician and champion of secular values. Kilicdaroglu is backed by six opposition parties and won nearly 45% of the vote in the first round.

Kilicdaroglu has campaigned on reversing Turkey into a parliamentary form of government, as well as restoring trust with the U.S. and Europe.

"The opposition has put forward a foreign policy agenda that seems to imply that they would reorient Turkey not forfeiting its relations and the significance of its engagement with countries like Russia or even with China but making Turkey's position in the Western security architecture more central, Cokun says.

Analysts believe a Kilicdaroglu victory would mean a return to democratic norms, pro-NATO foreign policy (at least in some respects) and more cooperation with the U.S.

"The problems that Turkey has with its European allies, even with the U.S., I think, would become more manageable," Cokun says. "So the relationship would become more predictable and easier to handle, despite many challenges that would probably continue to exist."

The Biden administration has so far avoided picking sides.

"I just hope ... whoever wins wins," Biden said on Sunday. "There's enough problems in that part of the world right now."

That hasn't always been his stance. In 2020, when Biden was still a candidate, video surfaced of him calling Erdogan an autocrat and suggesting the U.S. should support the opposition comments that Turkey condemned as "interventionist" at the time.

Erdogan has actually been capitalizing on that criticism, Cokun says.

"He has been referring to that, suggesting that the opposition is working in tandem with foreign forces against him," he says. "And that galvanizes his public support and consolidates his base, and he's done that during this campaign as well."

Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to meet with Nationalist third-party candidate Sinan Ogan, who has suggested his endorsement could secure someone the presidency. Analysts say a deal between Erdogan and Ogan could win him another term, NPR's Peter Kenyon reports.

If that happens, Cokun expects Turkey to continue down its current foreign policy trajectory.

"Turkey and its Western allies and the United States have settled into a transactional relationship," he adds. "And that's really not a resilience form of relationship. It's more unpredictable and I presume that should Erdogan remain in power that would not change much."

The broadcast interview was produced by Shelby Hawkins and edited by Amra Pasic.

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Turkey's elections have implications for the U.S. and NATO - NPR

QinetiQ will provide testing support to the U.S. Navy and NATO during the second portion of Formidable Shield 2023, a multinational exercise for allied forces to demonstrate air and missile defense systems interoperability through joint live-fire drills.

The company said Tuesday military participants are conducting technology demonstrations in a real-world setting at the contractor-operated Hebrides Range in Scotland.

Under a partnership agreement, QinetiQ manages the weapons test facility for the British defense ministry and offers target launch services to the mission rehearsal event.

The U.K.-based defense contractor will help evaluate radars, communications equipment and other tactical platforms designed for a battlespace environment.

Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO and the U.S. Navys Sixth Fleet jointly lead the exercise involving approximately 4,000 military personnel and more than 20 vessels and 35 aerial vehicles.

The first leg of the international event occurred on the Norwegian island of Andoya.

Read more here:
QinetiQ to Help US Navy, NATO Test Systems at International Air ... - ExecutiveBiz