Category Archives: Mars

Scientists have found promising new evidence that could help make Mars eventually habitable for humans.

Alongside the Moon, Mars has had a lot of interest from scientists here on Earth.

While it's very unlikely that we'll ever live on the Moon, there are hopes that Mars will eventually be habitable for humans.

It won't be a long-term plan for humankind however as the Red Planet was recently deemed unsafe for us to live for longer than four years.

Despite the potential knock back, scientists are still testing theories that could help us eventually make a home on Mars and they've recently made a huge breakthrough.

Scientists from the Chinese Academy of Sciences say they have found Syntrichia caninervis - a common kind of moss that's able to grow in extreme desert environments - is able able to withstand Mars-like conditions, including drought, high levels of radiation and extreme cold.

While moss isn't something that's edible, it could prove hugely beneficial in making Mars' atmosphere more habitable.

Prof Stuart McDaniel, an expert on moss at the University of Florida but was not involved in the study, explained to The Guardian: "Cultivating terrestrial plants is an important part of any long-term space mission because plants efficiently turn carbon dioxide and water into oxygen and carbohydrates essentially the air and food that humans need to survive.

"Desert moss is not edible, but it could provide other important services in space."

As well as surviving Mars-like conditions, the moss was said to have rapidly recovered from almost complete dehydration.

Other moss samples were placed in a 80C (112F) freezer for three or five years and a 196C (-321F) liquid nitrogen storage tank for 15 or 30 days before being moved over to sterilized sand for recovery, IFL Science reports.

Remarkably the plants recovered quite well from being exposed to such harsh conditions and had a reintegration rate of around 95 percent that of control plants.

The moss was also exposed to the kind of extreme radiation it would face on the red planet as well, which the samples survived.

There are now hopes that the moss will be one day be tested on Mars or the Moon to look into possibility of plant colonisation and growth in outer space.

While the study doesn't confirm that the moss could definitely survive on the Red Planet, it's certainly a step in the right direction.

"This extremotolerant moss could be a promising pioneer plant for Mars colonisation," Prof Edward Guinan of Villanova University shared.

Noting that more research is needed, he went on: "We have a long way to go, but this lowly desert moss offers hope for making small portions of Mars habitable for humankind in the future."

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Scientists discover plant that could grow on Mars and pave the way for human life on the planet - UNILAD

NASA has recently published two new white papers detailing specific areas of its Moon to Mars architecture efforts, providing insights into the agencys strategy for long-term human exploration of deep space.

The first white paper, titled Lunar Mobility Drivers and Needs, addresses the challenges and requirements for moving cargo and assets on the lunar surface. This includes considerations from landing sites to areas of use and factors that significantly impact mobility systems.

The paper outlines the need for robust mobility solutions to transport essential equipment, scientific instruments, and other assets across the rugged and varied terrain of the moon. It also discusses the importance of developing vehicles and technologies capable of withstanding the harsh lunar environment, including extreme temperatures and radiation.

The second paper, Lunar Surface Cargo, examines the projected needs and identifies current capability gaps for transporting cargo to the moons surface. This document delves into the logistical challenges of delivering large quantities of supplies, building materials, and other resources necessary for sustained human presence on the moon.

It highlights the importance of developing efficient and reliable cargo transport systems that can operate autonomously or with minimal human intervention. The paper also explores potential innovations in packaging, handling, and deploying cargo to ensure it reaches its intended destination safely and efficiently.

These white papers are part of NASAs ongoing efforts to communicate essential information to its stakeholders, including U.S. industry, academia, international partners, and the NASA workforce. Typically, NASA releases a series of technical documents at the end of its annual analysis cycle, but these mid-cycle releases provide timely insights into critical areas of interest.

By sharing these findings, NASA aims to foster collaboration and innovation across the space exploration community. The documents serve as a foundation for discussions on how to address the identified challenges and leverage emerging technologies and capabilities to achieve mission objectives.

Under NASAs Artemis campaign, the agency aims to establish a sustainable presence on the moon, including landing the first woman, the first person of color, and international partner astronauts on the lunar surface. These efforts are foundational for preparing human expeditions to Mars.

The Artemis program is designed to build a robust infrastructure on the moon that will support long-duration missions and serve as a testing ground for the technologies and procedures needed for Mars exploration. This includes the development of habitats, power systems, and life support technologies that can be scaled and adapted for use on Mars.

The release of these white papers highlights the ongoing work and planning required to achieve NASAs ambitious goals. Moving forward, NASA will continue to refine its strategies and address the identified capability gaps to ensure the success of future lunar and Martian missions.

The agency plans to leverage the latest advancements in robotics, artificial intelligence, and autonomous systems to enhance the efficiency and safety of space operations. Additionally, NASA will focus on developing sustainable practices for resource utilization, such as in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) technologies, which enable the extraction and use of local materials to support human activities on the moon and Mars.

For more detailed information, the white papers can be accessed through NASAs official channels, providing a deeper understanding of the challenges and solutions proposed for lunar and Mars exploration. These documents offer valuable insights into the technical and operational considerations that will shape the future of human spaceflight. They also serve as a roadmap for the continued development of capabilities that will enable humanity to explore and settle new frontiers.

These white papers underscore NASA's commitment to advancing human space exploration and addressing the complex logistical challenges of establishing a sustainable presence on the moon and preparing for future missions to Mars. By identifying and addressing the critical needs for mobility and cargo transport, NASA is laying the groundwork for a new era of exploration that will expand our understanding of the universe and inspire future generations of explorers.

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NASA Releases New White Papers on Moon to Mars Architecture - The Daily Galaxy --Great Discoveries Channel

Just a few days after

Romy, the daughter of filmmaker Sofia Coppola and musician Thomas Mars (born Thomas Croquet), dropped two singles: "Stuck Up" and "From a Distance." The EP, also titled Stuck Up, was produced by Claud, and the cover art shows Romy with a snorkeling mask. The songs are available on all major music streaming platforms, including Spotify:

Coppola promoted the music on her Instagram account, writing, "So proud of Romys first 2 songs out today! Thank you to Claud for producing @claud.mp3," coupled with a photo of her daughter on an orange moped:

Claud then shared Coppola's post to their story, adding a celebratory emoji.

The news has already begun to go viral online, with some taking to X (formerly Twitter) to praise Romy's ambitions as a nepo baby. "i support nepotism when it comes to romy mars," one person wrote. Another added, "Its Romy Mars world and we are just living in it."

Writer Emma de Matteo posted, "texting everyone i know that romy mars released an ep," and Alyssa Vingan wrote joked she was "Giving Romy Mars, Gracie Abrams, and Willow Smith top billing at my personal Nepochella."

After Romy's TikTok went viral last year with a video about being grounded for trying to charter a helicopter to visit her camp friend, she has not been on social media in a public way. Her mom Sofia commented "We were raised to be so private, and social media is so the opposite of how I grew up. So it was the best way for her to be rebellious." She added, "I got lots of compliments on her filmmaking. And comedy. Shes funny. But people discussing my parenting publicly is not what I wouldve hoped for."

As of this writing, Romy has not rejoined TikTok to promote her new music (yet).

Emily Burack (she/her) is the Senior News Editor for Town & Country, where she covers entertainment, culture, the royals, and a range of other subjects. Before joining T&C, she was the deputy managing editor at Hey Alma, a Jewish culture site. Follow her @emburack on Twitter and Instagram.

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Romy Mars Makes Her Music Debut With "Stuck Up" - Town & Country

The lead scientist for NASA's Perseverance Mars rover is excited about material that has been stored in the rover's sample tubes, both dropped on the surface of Mars and contained within the rover itself while wheeling about within Jezero Crater.

Given the samples of Mars that Perseverance has collected so far, could one of those specimens be what the rover was sent to look for in the first place: evidence of past microbial life on the Red Planet?

The preliminary finding heightens the need for returning these Mars samples to Earth, so that these prized collectibles from the Red Planet can be sent to laboratories for more rigorous analysis.

Related: If life exists on Mars, don't count on sample-return missions to find it, scientists say

Caltech's Kenneth Farley, project scientist for NASA's Perseverance Mars rover program, briefed the Extraterrestrial Materials Analysis Group (ExMAG) during a meeting held May 1315 in Houston, Texas.

Tagged "Lefroy Bay," Farley called attention to this sample collected by the Perseverance rover, found to have hydrated silica. Here on Earth, that mineral has the highest potential to preserve signs of ancient life.

So a lively question wanting of an answer arises: Perhaps Lefroy Bay carries preserved signs of ancient life on Mars?

Breaking space news, the latest updates on rocket launches, skywatching events and more!

"The Lefroy Bay sample and two other samples from the same unit the 'Margin Unit' are onboard Perseverance," Farley told Space.com. "The Margin Unit samples have abundant carbonate and silica, clearly indicating a dominant role for liquid water in their formation," he said.

But whether that water was surface water in a lake or river, or groundwater, remains uncertain, Farley added. Either could constitute an ancient (greater than 3.4 billion years old), habitable Martian environment, he said.

These samples host phases that on Earth are very useful for establishing "paleoenvieonmental" conditions, Farley noted, and they can also preserve biosignatures. "As such these samples are uniquely important for return to Earth for further study," said Farley.

Perseverance is "just about to make a really fundamental transition in the exploration of the environment that we have been working in," Farley explained in his briefing to the ExMAG. "One of the challenges we face," he said, "this is not a great terrain for driving a rover across."

So far, the Mars machinery has traversed some 17 miles (27 kilometers) after it was lowered to the area by skycrane on Feb. 18, 2021. The robot's objective is set in stone: "Seek signs of ancient life and collect samples of rock and regolith for possible Earth return," explains NASA.

But why was the 28 mile-wide (45-kilometer) Jezero Crater picked as the reconnoitering spot for the rover?

Scientists believe the area was once flooded with water and was home to an ancient river delta. The anticipation is that Jezero Crater is quite literally, "spilling" the beans about its on-again, off-again nature of the wet past of Mars. More than 3.5 billion years ago, river channels spilled over the crater wall and created a lake.

What's possible is that microbial life could have lived in Jezero during one or more of those wet periods. If true, evidence of leftovers from those little critters might be discovered in lakebed or shoreline sediments.

As for the overall health of the Perseverance rover, Farley noted a couple of issues: For one, loss of wind sensors that are part of the Mars Environmental Dynamics Analyzer (MEDA), built by an international team led by Spain's Centro de Astrobiologa. "We have largely lost the wind sensors. They are essentially not functioning anymore," he reported.

Also, the spectroscopy parts of the robotic arm-mounted Scanning Habitable Environments with Raman & Luminescence for Organics & Chemicals, SHERLOC for short, are challenged. That's due to a lens cover no longer working properly. However, there's some preliminary work done suggesting scientists may be able to recover SHERLOC's spectroscopy abilities. "We'll know more about that in the coming months," Farley said.

The rover was dispatched to Mars with 38 tubes that could be used for rock, regolith, and even atmospheric sampling. "We're about two-thirds of the way through the sample collection," explained Farley.

The on-duty robot has sampled igneous rocks, mudstone, sandstone/pebble conglomerate, carbonate-silica-olivine, as well as top side Mars sand and snagged a whiff of Martian atmosphere.

Earlier in its trekking of Mars, Perseverance dropped 10 sealed sample tubes at a depot location dubbed "Three Forks" in Jezero Crater. The intent is that a Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission in the future would pick up sample tubes for rocketing those bits and pieces of Mars to Earth.

However, that joint NASA and European Space Agency undertaking is now going through a detailed re-look due to a projected $11 billion price tag and an anticipated, but not satisfactory, time period to pull off such a complicated endeavor.

Farley told the ExMAG group that rover operators are working to qualify Perseverance to 55 miles (90 kilometers) of traverse, allowing it to make its way to enlivening landscape.

"There is obviously an enormous amount of uncertainty with what the MSR is going to be. We are waiting to hear how we are going to play a role in that on the Perseverance mission," Farley said. "But for now, we're going to stay the course. We are going to continue to behave essentially as we have so far, with a strong focus on sample collection."

Now in the rover's travel itinerary is completing tasks at an area called Bright Angel, then move up onto the crater rim, where the rover can survey fundamentally different geology, added Farley.

In ascending the rim, "we will expeditiously complete the sampling. The sooner we get the sampling done the sooner we can all rest easy that we have done our job," said Farley.

What happens next for Perseverance is in TBD status.

"Maybe we will return to the crater floor to rendezvous with MSR, maybe we won't. It will depend on what actually happens with MSR," Farley concluded.

Editor's note: The original version of this story contained this sentence: "In reviewing the samples of Mars thatPerseverancehas collected, scientists say one tube appears to be packed with what the rover was looking for: evidence ofpast microbial life on the Red Planet." That is too strong a statement, however; the story was edited at 7:15 p.m. ET on May 20 to replace the above with the following: "Given the samples of Mars that Perseverance has collected so far, could one of those specimens be what the rover was sent to look for in the first place: evidence of past microbial life on the Red Planet?"

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Perseverance rover's Mars rock sample may contain best evidence of possible ancient life - Space.com

Model of the Mars Perseverance rover showing the location of PIXL at the end of the robotic arm. NASA

Editors note: From the papers Introduction: At the time of this writing, PIXLs adaptive sampling capability has been operating on Mars for over 951 sols (martian days), with over 52 scans analyzed. To our knowledge, it represents the first case of autonomous decision-making through compositional analysis performed by a spacecraft on another planet. And from the Conclusion: We have successfully demonstrated new adaptive sampling technology with PIXL on the Mars Perseverance rover. To our knowledge, this has enabled the first autonomous decision-making based on real-tie compositional analysis by an exploration spacecraft. Almost all the rules were implemented through machine learning, trained with compositional analysis of PIXL Mars data taken earlier in the mission.

As we send our droids to other worlds to study local geology and search for biosignatures well need to have them equipped with as much autonomy as we can provide autonomy that we can upgrade based on mission experience as well as autonomy that can be improved by the droid itself based on its own experience. When we join our robotic partners on site well need to adopt the same approach with the tools that we bring with us. Well need the latest analytical tools in our Base Camp laboratory and out in the field on Away Team sorties embedded inside our tricorders and other sensors that we bring along.

These tools will need to be forward/backward compatible so as to be upgradeable. Even with fast communication back to Earth, the combination of varying message lags and inevitable bandwidth constraints, an emphasis will be placed on in situ capabilities as will creativity on the part of both humans and robots.

If we are going to expend the large amount of financial and national resources to send these missions eventually with humans we need to equip them as best we can with tools that learn just like human crews do. Our droids are leading the way programmed by smart humans back home. Here is one example already at work in the field- on Mars.

Planetary rovers can use onboard data analysis to adapt their measurement plan on the fly, improving the science value of data collected between commands from Earth.

This paper describes the implementation of an adaptive sampling algorithm used by PIXL, the X-ray fluorescence spectrometer of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover.

PIXL is deployed using the rover arm to measure X-ray spectra of rocks with a scan density of several thousand points over an area of typically 5 x 7 mm. The adaptive sampling algorithm is programmed to recognize points of interest and to increase the signal-to-noise ratio at those locations by performing longer integrations.

Preparations for the PIXL scan on sol 294 (Quartier). Most PIXL scans (about 60%) have been conducted on an abraded patch that exposes the sub-surface of the rock (an additional 32% are on natural surfaces and 8% on regolith). In this example an abraded patch of 50-mm diameter and approximately 7-mm deep is produced using the Sampling and Caching Subsystem (Moeller et al., 2021). This patch has been cleared of dust to roughly 40-mm diameter using the Gas Dust Removal Tool. The PIXL scan on sol 294 is 77 mm (placement not shown), about one seventh the diameter of the abraded patch, and has 3299 points spaced 0.125 mm apart. astro-ph.EP

PIXLISE view of carbonates detected on sol 879 (Gabletop Mountain). Shown here is a compositional map of carbonates derived from PIXLISE expressions. The expressions are equations that can use counts from PIXLs two detectors to estimate weight percents of compositions of interest while taking into account the effects of diffraction. The grey-colored points are where divide-by-zero errors have occurred and should be ignored. astro-ph.EP

5 x 7 mm PIXL scan of target Lake Haiyaha (sol 851) displaying elemental abundances of Cr2O3 in green. The scan only contains 3 Cr-rich grains (chromites) comprising 9 PMCs total (0.4% of the map scan [9 PMCs/2346 PMCs]). The Chromite-bearing PMCS are defined here as PMCs with >2 wt% Cr2O3. astro-ph.EP

Two approaches are used to formulate the sampling rules based on past quantification data: 1) Expressions that isolate particular regions within a ternary compositional diagram, and 2) Machine learning rules that threshold for a high weight percent of particular compounds.

The design of the rulesets are outlined and the performance of the algorithm is quantified using measurements from the surface of Mars.

To our knowledge, PIXLs adaptive sampling represents the first autonomous decision-making based on real-time compositional analysis by a spacecraft on the surface of another planet.

Peter R. Lawson (1), Tanya V. Kizovski (2), Michael M. Tice (3), Benton C. Clark III (4), Scott J. VanBommel (5), David R. Thompson (6), Lawrence A. Wade (6), Robert W. Denise (1), Christopher M. Heirwegh (6), W. Timothy Elam (7), Mariek E. Schmidt (2), Yang Liu (6), Abigail C. Allwood (6), Martin S. Gilbert (6), Benjamin J. Bornstein (6) ((1) Retired Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA (2) Brock University, St. Catherines, ON, Canada (3) Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA (4) Space Sciences Institute, Boulder, CO, USA (5) Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO, USA (6) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA (7) University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA)

Comments: 24 pages including 11 figures and 7 tables. Submitted for publication to the journal Icarus Subjects: Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP); Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics (astro-ph.IM) Cite as: arXiv:2405.14471 [astro-ph.EP] (or arXiv:2405.14471v1 [astro-ph.EP] for this version) https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2405.14471 Focus to learn more Submission history From: Peter Lawson [v1] Thu, 23 May 2024 11:57:02 UTC (17,776 KB) https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.14471 Astrobiology,

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Tricorder Tech: A.I. / Machine Learning: Adaptive Sampling With PIXL On Mars Perseverance - Astrobiology - Astrobiology News

Elon Musk spoke about not trusting OpenAI, Geminis values, and a future on Mars at VivaTech 2024.

I think we will have the first people on Mars probably within 10 years, maybe seven to eight, Elon Musk told the VivaTech fair in Paris on Thursday, adding that humans would be back on the Moon in five years.

In a session called Everything you always wanted to know about Elon Musk but were afraid to ask, based on the title of a Woody Allen film, the tech-enthusiastic audience got to grill Musk on anything they wanted.

SpaceXs long-term goal is to make life multi-planetary, he said.

We need to become a sustainable multi-planet civilisation. This is the first time in the history of the Earth when it is possible to do so. That capability might be only open for the short term, he added.

He was speaking remotely at the Paris event as he said he was attending his sons graduation and could therefore not be there in person.

NASA signed a nearly $3 billion (2.7 million) contract with SpaceX to use its new Starship mega-rocket as the lunar lander in its mission to return humans to the Moon with its Artemis astronauts.

But this has not yet happened and is supposed to later this year.

He also said his SpaceX company and others like it that have partly reusable spacecraft and rockets, are the ones that will accomplish this mission, unlike Europes Ariane rockets.

Any rocket that is not, or mostly not reused will not survive, he said, explaining that it is not cost-effective for a company.

Eventually, something on Earth will eliminate life as we know it on Earth, he later said, adding that a move to Mars and the Moon is necessary for [our] long-term survival and consciousness.

Asked if aliens are on Earth, he said: People often ask me do I think aliens are on Earth, I have not seen any evidence of aliens. If I did, I would post it [the evidence] on the X platform, he said, referring to his social media platform.

Maybe were alone in this galaxy, maybe its just us and our consciousness is extremely fragile, he added but later joked, I am an alien. But nobody believes me.

The South African billionaire was also asked about artificial intelligence (AI) and his company XAI.

Criticising OpenAI and Googles Gemini he said: It's important that AI is trained to be truthful and not to be politically correct.

Political correctness is often simply not true, and that means you're programming AI to lie, and I think that will backfire very badly. Honesty is the best policy," he said referencing Gemini.

Comparing making AI smarter to raising a child he said: It matters what you do raising it with values. Im concerned with Microsoft values, or OpenAI, Google.

Musks GrokAI chatbot, which he claims is open source, will try its best to be rigorous and pursue the truth and be the funniest. If we are going to die, we might as well die laughing.

But he admitted it still had a lot of catching up to do before it could compete with OpenAI or Gemini, which he said could be possible by the end of the year.

He also discussed how AI could transform education and said parents would still need to be responsible for values and morals. However, AI could help tailor lessons, he said, so that each child could have Albert Einstein as a teacher.

He was not concerned about AIs effect on children but said he was worried about social media, despite owning his own social media company since 2022, which has been criticised as a place of disinformation and rampant hate speech.

I do worry kids these days are trained by social media, which are dopamine maximisers. Id urge parents to limit social media to children because they are being programmed.

As for the question as to whether if AI would take our jobs, Musk said he envisioned a future where people would not work.

In a benign scenario, probably none of us will have a job, he said, adding that there would be a universal high income and people would not be lacking goods or services. But the question for people would be finding meaning.

Audience members questions turned existential, with one asking if he could time travel, what would he tell his younger self?

He said he felt classic time travel problem, which is would life be altered for the worst and change the outcome.

Overall Im happy with how things turned out I probably wouldnt do anything. You dont know if it comes out with a worse outcome, he said.

Id be curious to see a younger me, but Id probably stay invisible and not say anything.

However, keeping quiet might be as much a challenge for a time-travelling Musk as the real Musk.

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Life on Mars, 'honest' AI, and a job-free future: Elon Musk opens up at VivaTech Q&A - Euronews

That's no moon. Phobos Anomaly

The conventional wisdom about Mars' small and misshapen moons, Phobos and Deimos,is that they were either created like Earth's Moon carved out of the planet by an impact with a huge object or that they were passing asteroids that Mars' gravitational field captured, or perhaps remnants from an earlier and larger moon that broke apart.

But a team of scientists from France and Germany have now proposed that Phobos may have been formed from a comet and that means Deimos could be from the same celestial body, too.

In their study, a preprint for the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics, the scientists stake their claim on images of Phobos taken between 2004 and 2022 by the Mars Express spacecraft, a joint mission by NASA, the European Space Agency and the Italian Space Agency.

By analyzing details and data from the images, which Live Science lays out in an excellent explainer, the scientists discovered that Phobos has certain properties regarding how it reflects sunlight and itsporous sand-like surface that are similar to comets whose orbits are heavily influenced by Jupiter.

From these observations, the scientists suggest that Phobos is actually a comet that Mars' gravitational field captured in the distance past. That could also mean, the scientists reason, that Phobos and Deimos both came from the same comet that was subsequently torn apart.

In order to find out more about the origins of these moons, Japan is planning on launching sometime this decade the Martian Moons eXploration (MMX) mission, a spacecraft dedicated to studying the two lumpy Martian moons.

First, it will orbit Phobos and perform observational studies of that moon before moving onto Deimos and Mars. Then it will attempt to land on the surface of Phobos and collect samples of the moon for a return trip back to Earth.

Studying these samples will hopefully uncover a rich trove of information such as chemical composition but perhaps most tantalizingly of all, provide an answer to the mysterious origins of Phobos and Deimos.

More on Mars: Probe Detects "Unknown Features" Inside Martian Moon Phobos

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Mars' Moon May Not Be What We Think, Scientists Claim - Futurism

NASA is pretty focused on all things Mars these days, and have set goals that, to reach them, require extensive knowledge of the planet.

They hoped to add to this knowledge by bringing back samples from the surface, but delays and rising costs are leading some to wonder whether the reward will be worth it.

That said, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson said in a announcement that he was committed to the idea, and that many modifications to the mission were being considered.

The project is already over budget, clocking in at $11 billion as opposed to the estimated $8-$10 billion.

Money is an issue, since NASA has an annual budget, and other projects and programs could suffer if they dont get this one under control.

Still, with the possibility of finding life in those rocks, most dont question its priority or importance.

Some worry, though, that the cumulative sacrifice might add up to too much, in the end.

You might expect NASA would have answers, but in this case, theyre still working on ways to make the mission less complex and more likely to succeed.

Safely landing and collecting the samples, launching a rocket with the samples off another planet which has never been done before and safely transporting the samples more than 33 million miles back to Earth is no small task. We need to look outside the box to find a way ahead that is both affordable and returns samples in a reasonable timeframe.

Theyre asking for help, interviewing 70 experts and making 20 changes to the mission design already.

One of them is to use two Ingenuity-type helicopters to retrieve the samples if Perseverance is no longer operational.

The new budget is $8-$11 billion, which is surely giving NASA scientists with other pending projects more than a little anxiety.

The projected return date of 2040 has not been changed as of now.

The main obstacle is simply the fact that we have never had a spacecraft take off from another planet, nevermind docking with an orbiting craft and returning things safely to Earth.

Canceling the project altogether would mean a massive hit to both NASAs ego and their worldwide prestige. Mars is, as we said up front, their stated priority and these samples are very important as far as data.

The Chinese Space Agency has said they believe they will be able to bring back Martian samples by 2031, almost a decade before NASA is claiming theyll be able to accomplish the same.

In order to cut the timeframe, theyre likely going to need more money.

Stay tuned to see what happens next.

If you thought that was interesting, you might like to read about a second giant hole has opened up on the suns surface. Heres what it means.

Categories: NATURE/SPACE, PICTURE OF THE DAY Tags: ingenuity, mars, NASA, perseverance, picture, return, rocks, samples, science, top

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NASA Wants To Bring Samples Back From Mars, But Unsuccessful Plans Are Costing Way Too Much Money - Twisted Sifter

Mars, a planet often associated with a lifeless, dusty expanse, holds a puzzling amount of organic matter on its surface. Despite the absence of visible signs of life, the Red Planets geological features, such as deltas, lakebeds, and river valleys, strongly suggest a past where water once flowed abundantly.

To unravel the mysteries of Mars history, scientists have been diligently examining sediments preserved near these formations, hoping to find clues about the early environmental conditions and the processes that shaped the planet over time.

A new and intriguing study led by Professor Yuichiro Ueno from Tokyo Institute of Technology and Professor Matthew Johnson from the University of Copenhagen shed light on a peculiar finding made by NASAs Curiosity rover.

The rover collected sediments from Gale Crater, believed to be an ancient lake formed approximately 3.8 billion years ago due to an asteroid impact.

Analysis of these sediments revealed the presence of organic matter, but with a significantly lower amount of the carbon-13 isotope (13C) relative to carbon-12 isotopes (12C) compared to what is found on Earth.

On measuring the stable isotope ratio between13C and12C, the Martian organic matter has a13C abundance of 0.92% to 0.99% of the carbon that makes it up, explains Ueno.

This is extremely low compared to Earths sedimentary organic matter, which is about 1.04%, and atmospheric CO2, around 1.07%, both of which are biological remnants, and are not similar to the organic matter in meteorites, which is about 1.05%, Ueno continued.

To understand the discrepancy in carbon isotope ratios, the researchers conducted laboratory experiments simulating different conditions of the Martian atmospheres composition and temperature.

They discovered that when 12CO2is exposed to solar ultraviolet (UV) light, it preferentially absorbs UV radiation, leading to its dissociation into CO depleted in13C, leaving behind CO2enriched in13C.

This phenomenon, known as isotopic fractionation, is also observed in the upper atmospheres of Mars and Earth, where UV irradiation from the sun causes CO2 to dissociate into CO with depleted 13C content.

In a reducing Martian atmosphere, CO transforms into simple organic compounds such as formaldehyde and carboxylic acids.

Usingmodel calculations, the researchers found that in an atmosphere with a CO2to CO ratio of 90:10, a 20% conversion of CO2to CO would lead to sedimentary organic matter with 13CVPDBvalues of -135.

Also, the remaining CO2would be enriched in13C with 13CVPDBvalues of +20.

These values closely match those seen in sediments analyzed by the Curiosity rover and estimated from a Martian meteorite, indicating that the main source of organic matter formation on early Mars was an atmospheric process rather than a biological one.

If the estimation in this research is correct, there may be an unexpected amount of organic material present in Martian sediments. This suggests that future explorations of Mars might uncover large quantities of organic matter, says Professor Ueno.

The findings of this study have significant implications for our understanding of Mars past and the potential for future discoveries.

As scientists continue to explore the Red Planet, they may uncover even more evidence of organic matter, shedding light on the complex processes that shaped the Martian environment billions of years ago.

While the presence of organic matter alone does not confirm the existence of past life on Mars, it serves as a tantalizing clue, urging us to delve deeper into the planets history.

As we continue to unravel the mysteries of Mars, we inch closer to answering the age-old question: Did life ever exist beyond Earth?

The full study was published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

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Mars' surface contains more organic matter than previously believed - Earth.com

Baseline mission scenario

The baseline scenario for the mission as intended by SpaceX is given in Fig.1, which is based on7. For our purpose we assume two uncrewed missions carrying equipment, e.g. for power generation and ISRU, will launch from Earth in 2027 and two uncrewed and two crewed Starships will travel to Mars in 202932,33, similar to the initial concept7, but with a postponed time frame. Starship will launch (1) from Earth and stay in LEO (2), while the main stage returns to Earth (3) and is reused for launching a cargo version of Starship, which subsequently refuels (5) the crewed vessel. This is repeated until sufficient propellant is on board. Starship transfers to Mars (6), where it uses aerobraking in Mars atmosphere (7) to reduce its velocity for landing (8). During the stay, ISRU technology produces propellant (9) until Starship launches again (10) into a Mars orbit (11). A transfer orbit injection burn sends Starship on its way to Earth (12), where again aerobraking is used (13) to accomplish landing (14).

The current baseline scenario for a Mars mission using SpaceX Starship. 1 Starship launches from Earth. 2 It reaches LEO, waiting for refueling. 3 the main stage returns to Earth to be equipped with a cargo version of Starship. 4 the cargo Starship launches into LEO. 5 the main stage returns to Earth, while the crewed Starship is refueled. This is repeated until the propellant is sufficient for a Mars mission. 6 Transfer to Mars. 7 Aerobraking in Mars atmosphere and 8 Landing. 9 During stay on Mars, ISRU is used for propellant generation. 10 launch from Mars 11 into a circular orbit and subsequent 12return to Earth. 13 Aerobraking is used for 14 landing on Earth. [Source: Mars and Earth images: NASA, public domain, overall image: own, with information based on7].

SpaceX does not provide information about e.g. orbit altitudes; therefore, we assume a 500km (altitude) circular orbit for (2). This way, there is sufficient time for refueling, even in case of some launch failure for the subsequent launches, without risking decay of orbit into a realm where Starship can no longer stay on orbit. Also, this is above the ISS, i.e. the risk of collision is reduced. Overall, this orbit altitude has almost no effect on e.g. v and therefore can be set arbitrarily. The altitude at Mars at arrival is not fixed, but determined by the maximum possible velocity at closest approach, which is 7.5km/s according to SpaceX7. For the return flight, an initial orbit altitude at Mars (11) is assumed to be 200km. The approach at Earth (13) occurs at 12.5km/s maximum [12, p. 38], but may not go below 500km orbit altitude to avoid collision with ISS. As a baseline, the crewed version is assumed to carry 12 persons, but it will also be reviewed for the effect of carrying 100 persons [8, p. 5].

For further calculations regarding the mass budget, the following nominal mission values are assumed, based on this given mission scenario. These assumptions are are: ToF of 180 d for flight to Mars and back to Earth, as well as 500 d of surface time. Actual times might differ in the trajectory analysis, but these are assumed as baseline. The ascent to Earth orbit is not regarded as refueling means that the actual mission from a budget point of view starts in LEO.

In the following, the mass budget of Starship as derived within this work is explained. It is based on existing information where available and extrapolated for the remaining values. The goal is to determine a plausible mass budget for the Starship system and subsequently compare it to the proposed values by SpaceX, resp. determine its fit for the mission scenario given by SpaceX.

Starship can carry a payload mass of 100 MT into LEO34. A detailed mass budget for Starship itself has not been published by SpaceX. Based on public statements, SpaceX targets at a system dry mass of 100 MT, which includes all subsystems11. Assuming a 20% system margin according to ESA standards13, this means there are 83.333 MT of mass available for actual subsystems. Of these 4.167 MT are harness, when setting that mass as 5% of the system dry mass without margin, following the same standard13. While other numbers have been published in the past, SpaceX gives the propellant mass as 1200 MT on its website31. Being the most recent number, this is taken as baseline. Of these, 2% are assumed to be residuals, i.e. not available for actual maneuvers, as stated by ESA standard13. Therefore, 1176.47 MT of propellant are available for orbit maneuvers. A summary of these values is given in Table 5 for reference.

In the following an estimate for the subsystems is set up, based on information given by SpaceX where possible or extrapolated from other information, mostly about Orion (see following paragraphs for details), and calculations where necessary. Subsequently, a mass budget is determined and compared to the budget in Table 5.

To minimize the radiation and risk exposure of the crew on a long duration mission to Mars, different protection measures have to be included in the spacecraft. Materials protective against cosmic and solar radiation are e.g. water, polyethylene and aluminium, whereby elements with hydrogen, such as the first two, have a particularly protective effect for both types of radiation35. The importance of crew sleeping compartments and control centre leads to the assumption of a polyethylene cover. Furthermore, it is assumed that water pipes (e.g. for water supply and waste water transport) cover as much habitable volume as possible. To minimize the necessary mass, on-board equipment and cargo, e.g. food, are used for radiation protection as well. In the event of a solar flare, similarly to Orion36, cargo and food can be used for shelter. Further it was mentioned by SpaceX too that a central solar storm shelter17 would be provided for the crew. Details were not given.

The habitable volume of the Orion capsule is 9 m3 and the total pressurized volume is 20 m337. For Starships first missions with a crew of twelve, 16% reduction for elements not scaling linearly (e.g. 4 people need one toilet, 12 need not 3 toilets) are assumed, i.e. ten times the volume of Orion for larger cabins and rooms are assumed. Thus, for the model approximately 90 m3 habitable and 200m3 total pressurized volume are assumed. The pressurized volume of ISS is 1005m3 for comparison38. With a usable diameter of the payload section of 8m [8, p. 2] and thus a base area of about 50 m2, the pressurised area is 4m high, which corresponds to about two habitable floors. The surface area of this cylinder is consequently calculated to:

$${S}_{pressurized ,volume}=2cdot pi cdot rcdot h+1cdot pi cdot {r}^{2}=left(100+1cdot 50right) {{text{m}}}^{2}=150 {{text{m}}}^{2}$$

(11)

It is assumed that the area specific mass of the polyethylene layer is 20g/cm2 (200kg/m2) with a thickness of 0.217m [39, p. 28]. The mass of this shielding is therefore 30 MT. Note only one top side is assumed to be needed to be covered, as the lower side is covered by spacecraft systems and thus is already shielded.

Woolford & Bond report on the habitable volume necessary for human spaceflight missions, which is a function of mission duration, but reaches a plateau at about six to seven months40. They provide a so-called performance limit, which is needed if the crew is supposed to conduct tasks and activities, which go beyond survival and also an optimal range. For mission durations of 3months, the optimum is about 15.5 m3, the performance limit is about 7 m340. For six months, the values are 20m3 resp. 11.3 m340. For 12 crew members, this means, the minimum volume for a 90-day mission is 84 m3, the optimal is 186m3. For 180-day missions, which is a realistic flight time at least for some missions, see Section "Trajectory analysis", the values are 135.6m3 resp. 240m3. The assumed 90 m3 of this paper thus on the lower range and from a mass budget point of view on the optimistic side. In turn, SpaceX reported previously that they expect a pressurized volume of 825 m3 for 40 cabins17. A crew size was not given, but with 40 cabins would exceed the here assumed 12 person crew, i.e. the 825 m3 are not regarded.

For micro-meteoroid protection, Starship, similar to the Columbus module of the ISS, is assumed to have a protective layer reinforced with Kevlar and Nextel, a so-called Stuffed Whipple Shield (SWS), which bursts incoming objects with three layers of protective material and thus prevents them from penetrating41.

The three layers consist of two bumper shields (BS) and the back wall (BW). Since Starship, unlike the Columbus module, will only be in space and on Mars for approximately 2.5years, the values are oriented to those of the module but have been reduced. For example, the outer layer of the SWS should consist of a 2mm thick Al 6061-T6 aluminium layer with an areal density of 0.6g/cm2 and the intermediate stuffing of two layers of Nextel 312 AF-62 with 0.2g/cm2 as well as eight layers of Kevlar 129 Style 812 with 0.4g/cm241. On the outer walls of the crewed Sect.(100 m2, see Eq.(7), the back wall should not consist of an aluminium layer, but instead of the polyethylene layer of the radiation shielding. In this way, mass can be saved. This results in 1.2g/cm2 (12kg/m2) and therefore 1.2 MT for the SWS around the crewed section of Starship. For the remaining part of Starship, 3mm thick Al 2219-T851 aluminium with 0.8g/cm2 is to be used as the back wall41. For simplification, a height of 40m is assumed without protection of the engine area, which results in an outer skin of 1005 m2 with the same base area of 50 m2 according to Eq.(7). With an areal density for this protection of 2g/cm2 (20kg/m2), it results in a mass of 20.1 MT, adding 10% margin, this leads to 22.1 MT. Figure2 shows the described structure of the SWS for Starship. The dimensions refer to the aluminium and not the polyethylene layer with a thickness of 0.217m of the crewed section, as this is considerably thicker. However, the distances between the individual layers should be identical.

Stuffed Whipple Shield for Starship with two bumper shields (BS) and one back wall (BW), after41.

Furthermore, Starship must be designed and built in such a way that its structure can carry the payload of up to 100 MT with empty tanks, because they will be almost empty by the time it arrives on Mars. To estimate the mass of the remaining structure, the simplification is made that Starship is a 50m high cylinder with a diameter of 9m and thus, similarly to Eq.(10c), a surface area of 1541 m2. Since this shape is larger than the one of Starship, additional structural elements within the fuselage are compensated for. As with the current prototypes, 3mm thick 304L stainless steel is used for Starships outer skin42, which has a density of 8000kg/m343. For the calculation of the outer skin, the areal density is needed, which is the density multiplied by the thickness of the material and thus amounts to 24kg/m2 for the stainless steel used. This results in a mass of 37 MT. With a 10% margin, e.g. for internal structure elements, the structural mass is estimated at 40.7 MT.

For the thermal protection Pica-X is used44. It has a density of 0.27g/cm3 and typically has a thickness of 6cm in a heat shield44. Assuming a cylinder of 9m diameter and 48m height17, as Starships size (not regarding the conic nature of its upper part, due to lack of measurement data for that), this yields a surface area of 1357.2 m2. Covering that with 6cm of PICA-X heat shield would mean a volume of 81.43 million cm3. With the given density, this would result in a mass for the thermal protection of 22 MT. Assuming not every part needs to be covered with the full 6cm, but on average 3cm, would result in 11MT for the heat shield.

The life-support system, accommodation and thermal control is not provided for Starship by official sources. For Orion, a mass of 1.2 MT is given as mass for these subsystems18. It is assumed that these scale with the crew size, e.g. as the amount of CO2 produced by the crew is one driver for the ECLSS and that scales with the crew size. Thus, for this calculation this leads to a mass of 3.6 MT (12-person crew, instead of 4-person crew). This is a rough estimate as certain mission parameters are different, e.g. mission duration. Since the value given in18 is an estimate as well, no further margin is added here. The Orion ECLSS is also the basis for the ECLSS system of the Lunar Gateways Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) module45. Mera et al.45 state that the operation of the ECLSS for longer mission durations than 30days concern e.g. the exercise mode and removal of trace contaminants, but indicate that no substantial system change is needed for that. Indications for scaling the system to larger crews and volume are not provided in the paper, so that we remain with the conservative estimate given above.

For thermal insulation, Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI foil) is assumed, which provides additional low radiation shielding. The MLI foil encloses the entire Starship except for the engine bay and the entire crew area. The 40m high cylinder with a surface area of 1005 m2 already mentioned is therefore used as an assumption for the volume to be enclosed, to which the floor and ceiling of the crewed area with 50 m2 each are added. The surface area to be covered is thus 1105 m2. Good insulation is to be provided by 40 layers of MLI with a surface density of 0.2g/cm2 (2kg/m2)41. The mass of the required MLI is thus 2.21MT.

For additional protection against strong solar storms, special vests are to be available on-board Starship, which should be worn when a solar flare occurs. One such vest is the AstroRad vest, which will be tested on the Artemis missions. The mass of a vest depends on the size of the person wearing it. On average, it weighs 27kg46, which corresponds to a mass of 324kg for a crew of twelve. Furthermore, the ECLSS is to be expanded to include a radiation warning system that will warn the crew when solar storms occur and they have to seek shelter. The HERA (Hybrid Electronic Radiation Assessor) radiation warning system, which is used on board the Orion capsule, will be used for this purpose36.

For communication and avionics, a similar system as for Orion is assumed, lacking further references and information. The mission profile is similar, although not identical, therefore, the system is not scaled up. For instance, an increased crew size would not necessarily lead to an increase in communication data to be sent or commands to be handled by the system. Therefore, the value for Orion is selected, i.e. 0.6 MT18. Again, as this is already an estimated value, no further margin is added.

It has to be noted that the currently intended mission profiles for Orion (lunar environment) and this analysed Mars mission, differs in solar distance, which affects the link budget of the communication system. Considering Mars distance of about 1.5AU and that of Earth of about 1 AU, this means maximum distance would be about 2.5 AU, i.e. resulting in a signal strength of about 1/6 (~1/d2). This change can be compensated by directiveness of antenna, antenna size, increase in transmitter power or accepting a reduced amount of transmitted data. Especially during transfer, where no significant scientific activities are to be assumed, this change in the link budget does not warrant a larger system. In a Mars environment, communication satellites could also be used as relays for Earth communication, allowing a similar system without further losses. More detailed information about Orions communication system is not available, but NASA press releases explain that the current Orion communication system is intended for use beyond the lunar environment47.

Solar arrays, which are stowed in the engine area during launch and landing and are deployed during the flight, are responsible for the power generation during the flight. Therefore, they must not only be deployable but also retractable. Similar to the Orion capsule, the solar arrays are supposed to have a mechanism that allows them to constantly align themselves with the sun so that they can deliver full power.

Orions four 7m long and 2m wide solar arrays, each consisting of three foldable panels, provide 11.2kW of power for a crew of four people48. Therefore, Starships solar arrays should have about ten times the power, 100kW. In addition, the radiation intensity decreases by about half during the flight to Mars. In order for the solar arrays to deliver the required power near Mars, they need to deliver at least twice as much power near Earth. With some margin for failing solar cells, for example, an output of around 250kW is required near the Earth. One solar panel that should be able to deliver this amount of power is the MegaFlex from Northrop Grumman, which is foldable and unfolds into a round panel by rotating 360. The MegaFlex is a scalable system that is currently still being tested, but its smaller versionthe UltraFlexis already being used on, for example, the Cygnus spacecraft and the InSight lander on Mars49. So, the technology is already proven and has a flight heritage. A system consisting of two MegaFlex arrays, each with a diameter of around 24m, should be able to deliver this power49,50. Together, the two arrays have a mass of about 2 MT49. To this a 5% margin is added, as the system is already developed.

As with Orion, lithium-ion batteries are to be used to store surplus energy. They have a high energy density and can power Starship in the absence of sunlight and as a back-up51. SpaceX could use batteries from Tesla here. It is assumed that the batteries have to provide power over a time span of 6h in case of a power loss which results with a power of 100kW in a required battery size of 600 kWh. The 6h are assumed as no public figure provides information about duration of assumed emergencies. For redundancy there should be second a battery pack with the same size. With the use of the 100-kWh battery from Tesla, which has a mass of 625kg52, and a factor of 1.2 for aging and recharging this results in a mass of 9 MT for the batteries in total. Here as well, a 5% margin is assumed.

The assumed total mass of the EPS, including the solar arrays and a margin of 10% for additional components (e.g. cables), is approximately 12 MT.

The propulsion system is based on 6 Raptor engines, each with a mass of 2 MT10. It is also using a cryogenic propellant tank, which has to house 1200 MT of propellant31. Super Heavy, i.e. the main stage for Starships ascent from Earth, has a tank for 3600MT of propellant with a mass of 80 MT10. As there are no further details on the tank system, it must be assumed that the masses given already include the systems for cryogenic propellant storage. Assuming SpaceX will use the same technology for the tank in Starship, the following estimate is made.

The tank mass ({m}_{T}) can be expressed as:

$${m}_{T}={S}_{T}cdot {d}_{T}cdot {rho }_{T}$$

(12)

where ({S}_{T}) is the tanks surface, ({d}_{T}) the tanks wall thickness and ({rho }_{T}) the material density. It is assumed that the material and thus density of both tanks (Super Heavy and Starship) are identical. Furthermore, it is assumed that the inside pressure and loads (e.g. during launch) to be withheld are similar as well, i.e. the wall thickness is also assumed to be identical for both tank types. Therefore, for our calculations is true, that:

$${m}_{T} sim {S}_{T}$$

(13)

Assuming a spherical tank and using formulas for sphere volume ((=4/3 cdot pi cdot {r}^{3})) and surface ((=4 cdot pi cdot {r}^{2})), one can write for the relations between the two:

$$frac{S}{V}=frac{3}{r}$$

(14)

$$S=frac{3}{r}cdot V$$

(15)

$$V=frac{Scdot r}{3}$$

(16)

Considering the propellant mass of 1/3 in comparison to Super Heavy, the Volume of the tanks is regarded as:

$${V}_{S}=frac{1}{3}cdot {V}_{SH}$$

(17)

where the index S denominates Starship and SH Super Heavy. From this relation one can derive that:

$$r_{S}^{3} = frac{1}{3} cdot r_{SH}^{3} Rightarrow r_{S} = sqrt[3]{1/3} cdot r_{SH}$$

(18)

Using Eqs.(14) and (15), this leads to:

$$S_{S} = frac{1}{{sqrt[3]{1/3} cdot r_{SH} }} V_{1} = frac{{S_{1} }}{{3 sqrt[3]{1/3}}} = 0.231 cdot S_{1}$$

(19)

With Eq.(12) follows:

$${m}_{T,S}=0.231cdot {m}_{T,SH}=18.49 {text{MT}}$$

(20)

Using the ESA margin for to be modified components, i.e. 10%13, this leads to a tank mass for Starship of 20.3MT. The Helium tanks for the cold gas reaction thrusters10 are assumed as 5 MT, this is an estimate as a suitable reference is not available. For the reaction control system (RCS) it is assumed, that 50 RCS thrusters are used for Starship, since the smaller Space Shuttle had 4453. There should be two pairs of five thrusters in the front and rear on each side of the flaps, five thrusters in the front in flight direction and five thrusters in the rear against flight direction (aligned like the main thrusters). As a rough estimate for the mass of a thruster, the 220 N RCS thruster of the Orion capsule is used, which has a mass of approximately 2kg54. This results in a mass of approximately 100kg for Starships RCS thrusters. With the 10% margin this results in 5.5 MT for the helium tanks and 0.11 MT for the thrusters respectively. As the raptor engines are mostly developed, only a 5% margin is assumed13. This subsystem also requires piping, which is included in the numbers for harness (see Table 5).

To support a crew of 12 astronauts on their long duration trip to mars, different crew and consumable elements need to be considered. The final crew and payload mass depend highly on the number of astronauts and the time of flight. Therefore, an overview of required masses per astronaut and per astronaut-day is established and shown in Table 6.

As no detailed information on crew and consumable masses are provided by SpaceX, the mass values for the listed elements are selected based on literature research18,55,56,57. The compared values often contain a large scale of deviations depending on the given assumptions. The selected values in Table 6 are assumed to be suitable to establish a first mass model of the described mars mission scenario but may be subject to change. The improvement of life support technologies towards a closed loop system is an important step in realizing long term interplanetary missions. As SpaceX has not yet published any detailed information about the type and quality of recovery systems, that will be used on their mission to mars, a best-case rate of 100% recovery for gases, fluids and solids is assumed to establish a reference mass.

The total consumable mass per person per day mconsumables can be calculated using the given recovery factor krec from Table 6 in formula (21).

$${m}_{consumables}={(1-k}_{rec, oxygen})*{m}_{oxygen}+{(1-k}_{rec,food})*{m}_{food}+(1-{k}_{rec,pot,water})*{m}_{pot.water}+{(1-k}_{rec hyg.water})*{m}_{hyg,water}+{(1-k}_{rec,hyg.items})*{m}_{hyg.items}+(1-{k}_{rec,clothing})*{m}_{clothing}$$

(21)

A recovery rate of 100% means, that in theory the systems are able to use an initial payload mass required for 12 astronauts for one day and completely recover it. Therefore, the system is by calculation able to supply the crew without any additional storage or resupply for the entire mission duration. The consumable mass mconsumables per person per day turns to zero.

The calculation of the crew and consumable mass on a mission with a closed loop ECLSS System can be derived using Eqs.(21) and (22) and are given in Table 7.

$${m}_{c&c,IB/OB}=left(1+{k}_{safety}right)*({n}_{astronaut}*{m}_{astronaut}+{m}_{science}+{m}_{consumables,initial}*{n}_{astronauts}+{n}_{astronaut}*TOF*{m}_{consumables})$$

(22)

$${m}_{c&c,surface}=left(1+{k}_{safety}right)*({m}_{consumables,initial}*{n}_{astronauts}+{n}_{astronaut}*TOF*{m}_{consumables})$$

(23)

While the astronaut masses and the mass of the scientific payload are relevant for the transfer trips, they can be neglected during the surface stay. Here, only the plain consumable masses are relevant to examine the necessary resupply capacities. In the given equations ksafety represents the safety factor, nastronauts represents the number of astronauts, mastronaut represents the mass assumed per astronaut (200kg according to Table 6), mscience represents the mass of the scientific payload (100kg according to Table 6), TOF represents the Time of Flight in days and mconsumables represents the mass of consumables required per person per day. As mconsumables turns to zero for a recovery rate of 100% the total required consumable mass is not dependent on the ToF anymore.

With the bottom up estimates as formulated in the previous sections a mass budget summary can be formulated. This is shown in Table 8. The total on orbit mass adds to 1510.5 MT, of which 1200 MT are propellant and 100 MT payload and the 12person crew and their consumables for an ToF of 180 d. This is assuming that 100% of consumables can be recovered by the ECLSS of Starship for the flight. Overall, the total mass on orbit is exceeding the proposed mass summary by SpaceX by more than 100 MT. This is summarized in Table 9 and input for the trajectory calculations in the following section.

The usable propellant mass is 1176.47 MT (see Section "Starship system mass") and the specific impulse is 378s11. The ratio of launch mass ({m}_{0}) (the sum of propellant mass, system mass and payload mass) to dry mass ({m}_{d}) (the launch mass minus the propellant available for orbit maneuvers) is:

$$frac{{m}_{0}}{{m}_{d}}=frac{1200+204.2+6.3+100}{left(1200-1176.47right)+204.2+6.3+100}=4.516$$

(24)

The maximum attainable v with one fully fueled Starship thus follows, using the rocket equation27, to:

$${Delta v}_{max}={I}_{mathit{sp}}cdot {g}_{0}cdot {text{ln}}left(frac{{m}_{0}}{{m}_{d}}right)=mathrm{5,588} {text{m}}/{text{s}}$$

(25)

Any trajectory requiring more v than that cannot be flown by Starship during its Mars mission with the baseline Starship design as given in Section "Starship system mass". Without the 2% of propellant left as residuals in the tanks, the mass ratio would actually be 4.865 and ({Delta v}_{max}) would become 5864m/s. Imperfect propellant use leads to losses of more than 275m/s in v.

Due to the varying alignment of the two planets, the needed v is changing over the course of a 15-year cycle. In general, a transfer becomes feasible every 22months, an event that is called launch opportunity. Such launch opportunities stay open for 45 to 160days in the case of Starship. Each launch opportunity was examined with respect to three performance parameters:

The local minimum v for which a transfer becomes possible with a maximum time of flight of 180days and a payload mass of 100 MT

The local minimum time of flight for which a transfer becomes possible without exceeding the maximum obtainable v value of 5588m/s and a payload mass of 100 MT

The maximum payload mass that can be brought to the Martian surface according to Eq.(6)

The first analyzed launch opportunity is the one in late 2028 and early 2029, hence the one chosen by SpaceX to have their first manned flight to Mars. We also analyzed the 2033 and 2035 launch opportunities as they show a good performance of the selected three parameters. The results for each launch opportunity are displayed using porkchop plots which show the value of ({Delta v}_{Eto M}) for a given tuple of departure date and time of flight. Figure3 shows the porkchop plot for a transfer from Earth to Mars in 2028 and 2029.

Porkchop plot for an Earth-Mars-transfer in 2028 and 2029. The blue dashed line indicates the minimum ToF trajectory, the red dashed line indicates the minimum v (and hence maximum payload mass) trajectory. Darker areas indicate lower v values, bright areas indicate higher v values and white areas indicate impractical trajectories.

For that launch opportunity, the minimum v value is 5435m/s, corresponding with a maximum payload mass that can be brought to Mars of 114.4MT. This performance can be achieved with a transfer on 13.01.2029. The minimum possible time of flight in this launch opportunity is 177 d, possible with a transfer on 27.01.2029. In Fig.4, the porkchop plot for a transfer in 2033 is displayed.

Porkchop plot for an Earth-Mars-transfer in 2033. The blue dashed line indicates the minimum ToF trajectory, the red dashed line indicates the minimum v (and hence maximum payload mass) trajectory. Darker areas indicate lower v values, bright areas indicate higher v values and white areas indicate impractical trajectories.

For that launch opportunity, the minimum v value is 4820m/s (11.3% compared to 2029), corresponding with a maximum payload mass that can be brought to Mars of 178.7 MT (+56.2% compared to 2029). Both values are the global minimum/maximum values in the observed time frame. The minimum possible time of flight in this launch opportunity is 122 d.

In Fig.5, the porkchop plot for a transfer in 2035 is displayed. For that launch opportunity, the minimum is v 4896m/s, corresponding with a maximum payload mass that can be brought to Mars of 170.2MT. The minimum possible time of flight in this launch opportunity is 112 d (36.7% compared to 2029).

Porkchop plot for an Earth-Mars-transfer in 2035. The blue dashed line indicates the minimum ToF trajectory, the red dashed line indicates the minimum v (and hence maximum payload mass) trajectory. Darker areas indicate lower v value, bright areas indicate higher v values and white areas indicate impractical trajectories.

Since the results of the previous analysis indicate that the system mass of Starship is likely to exceed 100 MT, it is evident that this is a limiting factor on the performance of the system. The system mass influences the left-hand side of Eq.(6) and therefore the capacity of the system. As a result, the maximum payload mass decreases for higher system masses and the minimum time of flight increases. In order to model the v required for landing correctly, the structural mass in excess of 100MT is modeled as additional payload mass. This allows to calculate the maximum payload mass in the same way as in the previous section. Since our analysis showed that the system mass of Starship could exceed the 100 MT as proposed by SpaceX, the following sensitivity analysis examines the advantages of a reduced system mass in terms of mission analysis. We analyzed a transfer in 2033. In Table 10, the v capacities for a system mass of 175 MT and 150 MT, respectively, are displayed.

In Table 11, the performance of Starship for the reduced system masses is shown. The performance is measured based on the maximum payload mass and the minimum time of flight. Also, the improvement of the two parameters when compared to our baseline scenario is displayed.

It is shown that a reduction of the system mass has only a small influence on the minimum time of flight, but a big impact on the maximum payload mass. These results show the large potential of Starship when reducing the system mass and explain the aims of SpaceX in terms of mission analysis.

According to the presented model in Section "Starship mass budget", return flights from Mars to Earth have been analyzed. The launch opportunities for the return flights were chosen to open 500days after the landing on Mars, according to the mission plans presented.

in previous sections. Under the assumption that no payload apart from the astronauts and consumables is returned to Earth, the maximum v for the return flight is 6651m/s. It has been shown that the ascent to LMO alone consumes 4782m/s, which are 72% of the v budget, including margins. Another 6% are used for the TCM, while the landing requires around 2% of the budget. This leaves only 1330m/s, or 20%, of the maximum v available for the two remaining maneuvers. In order to set the boundary conditions for the return flight, a maximum time of flight must be chosen. Due to the alignment of the two planets, flight times over 300 d result in a vast increase of required v. Therefore, we selected 300 d as the maximum allowable time of flight for the return. Before further evaluating the return flight in this configuration, an excursion is needed: If Starship would have a system mass of 100 MT, as proposed by SpaceX, the maximum v would be 8711m/s. In this configuration, the global minimum v for return would be 7771m/s.

Upon comparison of these two numbers, it becomes evident that a return from Mars to Earth is beyond the capacity of Starship in the presented configuration, since the global minimum for only 100 MT of system mass is already exceeding the actual maximum v available by more than 1100m/s.

Section "Trajectory analysis" gives an overview of the required propellant masses for different mass- and trajectory options. The results show, that Starship requires the maximum available amount of 1200 MT of propellant on the outbound as well as the inbound trip for the realization of a realistic mission scenario. Following this analysis, it becomes visible, that realizing the described mission to mars with the Starship vehicle is only possible by refilling the spacecraft during the mission.

With a mixture ratio of O/F=3.6:112 940 MT of liquid oxygen and 260 MT of liquid methane need to be resupplied as propellant for the inbound trip. In addition, following the calculation in Section "Crew and consumables", the mission requires the resupply of consumable items to support the crew during the surface stay and the inbound trip. The individual as well as total masses can be derived using Eqs.(25) and (26).

$${m}_{item, resupply}={m}_{item}*{n}_{astronauts}*ToF$$

(26)

$${m}_{consumables,resupply}=sum {m}_{item,resupply}$$

(27)

Thus, for a mission with a surface stay of 500days and an inbound trip of 180days, 1,263,158 MT of consumable items need to be resupplied for one Starship with a crew of 12 astronauts. In this analysis it is assumed, that two crewed Starship vehicles will return to Earth while the cargo vehicles remain on Mars.

If the amount of 2,526,316kg is to be resupplied via cargo missions, 26 Starship cargo vehicles with the currently planned payload capacity of 100 MT are required. A reasonable alternative is the production of selected items via ISRU technologies. A detailed overview of the required resupply masses is presented in Table 12.

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About feasibility of SpaceX's human exploration Mars mission scenario with Starship | Scientific Reports - Nature.com