Category Archives: Jacinda Ardern

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in Sydney in talks with Australia's new PM Anthony Albanese. Photo / AP

OPINION:

Jacinda Ardern remains Labour's greatest asset. But if your best asset is heading towards certain insolvency, aren't you best to dump it and invest in something else?

Ardern's visit to the US was a triumph. So, too, will be today's to Australia, especially if a compromise is negotiated with Anthony Albanese over the 501s.

The Prime Minister will then host Samoa's Fiam Naomi Mata'afa in New Zealand, before strutting her new cold-war warrior credentials at the Nato Summit in Madrid. Kiwi officials hope her global brand will help liberal European leaders sell their voters a more pro-American foreign policy and higher defence spending.

In return, Ardern needs to report back home that our free-trade agreement with the EU is nearing completion. This is all great stuff for New Zealand.

The problem is that Labour strategists want to move on from the old St Jacinda brand to a more sleeves-rolled-up version, concerned primarily about your grocery bills, mortgage payments and the cost of kids' shoes.

They judge, rightly, that after two years of lockdowns and the associated economic and personal pain and with prices, rents and mortgage payments now rising faster than wages voters want a more prosaic Prime Minister.

But Ardern can't quite play the new role. She is too obviously more in her element talking geopolitics, hate speech or climate change in Washington, Sydney or Madrid than inflation, interest rates and housing costs in Auckland, Hamilton and Christchurch.

As a student leader, junior diplomat and influential staffer in Helen Clark's office, Grant Robertson seemed destined to make history as New Zealand's first openly gay Prime Minister. Since then, New Zealand has progressed so that milestone would now attract only fleeting interest.

At least as surprising as that social evolution, the notoriously Machiavellian Robertson has reinvented himself as an utterly loyal deputy to Ardern and a down-to-earth, no-nonsense Finance Minister.

In that sense, Robertson has followed Bill English, also picked early as a future Prime Minister.

Like English, Robertson's career then included brutal humiliations. English could at least content himself that his defeats were at the hands of Helen Clark and Don Brash.

Robertson had to endure being beaten by David Cunliffe and then Andrew Little for the Labour leadership.

To their credit, both Robertson and English picked themselves up to become highly successful wingmen to leaders better suited to lead their parties to power under the circumstances that prevailed.

As Finance Minister, English was undoubtedly more careful with the taxpayer's wallet than Robertson. Yet both accepted massive borrowing after the Christchurch earthquakes and Covid outbreak rather than raise tax or cut spending. While on a slower repayment schedule than English and now with a less ambitious target, Robertson at least talks about paying his debt down before the next shock.

Of greatest relevance to Labour's current plight, English was the perfect safe-pair-of-hands and old-pair-of-socks candidate when median voters started tiring of John Key's more cloud-bouncing style.

Key's 2016 resignation followed focus groups beginning to describe him as arrogant, the failing he would cite when asked Proust's question of the trait he most deplored in others. Whether that hurt the right side of Key's brain, the left side knew that negative focus-group feedback presages falling polls. He judged National would have a better chance in 2017 under a new leader.

So it transpired. With National seeking its first fourth term since 1969, English won 44 per cent of the party vote, miles ahead of Clark's 34 per cent in 2008 or Jenny Shipley's 31 per cent in 1999. A fall of only 3 per cent over National's 2014 result, it is extremely unlikely that Key would have done as well.

Labour's difficulties are much worse than when Key calculated it was in National's best interests for him to hand over the top job. Since its failure to buy the vaccine on time led to last year's four-month lockdown, Labour has been on a steep slide. In the most recent polls it now averages just 35 per cent, well down from the mid-40s or higher it routinely scored before August's avoidable lockdown.

The Budget didn't help. The 1News-Kantar poll, taken since then, has Labour down two more points to 35.

According to Roy Morgan, the Australian pollsters whose 2020 work most closely picked Ardern's 50 per cent triumph and National's 26 per cent disaster, Labour is at just 31.5 per cent and still heading south.

That was the second poll in a month showing National-Act able to govern alone. The others suggest either a hung Parliament requiring new elections, or Labour-Green relying on Te Pti Mori.

If interest rates and grocery bills keep rising faster than wages, there will soon be a poll with Labour in the 20s, putting Ardern in Judith Collins, Little, Cunliffe or English 1.0 territory.

Ardern's globetrotting risks bringing that fateful day forward.

In the circumstances that now prevail, Labour's recovery and the jobs of at least 25 MPs depend on successfully shifting to the more everyday Kiwi brand to which Ardern has this year proven unsuited.

For his part, Robertson has transformed himself into almost a caricature of a family accountant operating above the Te Atat shops.

He's the ordinary bloke who helped us keep things reasonably steady during the pandemic, and now wants us to pay off our credit cards and overdraft, but not worry so much about the mortgage. He watches the rugby with us at the local pub, where the beer's still sold in plastic jugs.

He's married to a bus driver and they're proud grandparents. Like English, he's much more likely to buy the family Hawaiian pizza than something exotic from the flash new pizzeria.

He has to wear suits to work but they don't fit properly because, like most of us, he's eaten too many pies. You could imagine him at the Prime Minister's desk, with his jacket and tie off and yes with his sleeves literally rolled up.

As Prime Minister, Robertson could declare his predecessor the greatest since Michael Joseph Savage and arrange for her to receive every honour a grateful nation could bestow.

He would claim not even to aspire to such greatness but to just do the job, to help you stay afloat during the recession and be safe from Christopher Luxon's dastardly plans.

If Ardern's re-election becomes unviable, this is undoubtedly Labour's best bet for a third term. Much better to get it done tidily before Christmas than panic in election year.

- Matthew Hooton is an Auckland-based public relations consultant.

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Matthew Hooton: Labour's best bet for a third term - replace Jacinda Ardern with Grant Robertson - New Zealand Herald

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern speaks to journalists, on Tuesday morning, after returning from almost two weeks in the US.

Stuffs bureau of political reporters share diversions and observations on hive life in their weekly column on the peculiarity of Parliament, Points of Order.

OPINION: Theres an unwritten rule at Parliament, where politicians usually fall quiet when their boss walks into the room. But after almost two weeks of the prime minister being away, Labours senior MPs were perhaps getting used to ruling the roost.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern not-so-subtly shunted deputy Labour leader Kelvin Davis away from the cameras on Tuesday morning, for her first stand up with reporters on home soil since returning from the US.

Davis was sharing kind words about Speaker Trevor Mallard, after a 1 News poll found he had just 17% public support. To be fair, 35% of people didnt have an opinion on the fairly niche role of Speaker of Parliament. But then, 48% disapproved of his performance.

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READ MORE:* Grant Robertson new deputy prime minister as Jacinda Ardern reshapes Cabinet for new Government* Kelvin Davis won't seek the role of Deputy Prime Minister, but wants to stay on deputy Labour leader* Labour Deputy Leader Kelvin Davis tears up about wanting to make a difference

I get on well with him, Davis said, with Ardern hovering in the wing. As he prepared to expand on these pleasantries, Ardern hinted that it was time to wrap things up. Sorry, or not, she interrupted, stepping in front of the microphone stands.

Not to worry, just a few days later Davis was actually in charge. For the first time since pre-pandemic days, Davis was acting prime minister - but only for a day.

Office of the Australian Prime Minister

Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese and Jacinda Ardern take a selfie on Thursday night, in Sydney.

Ardern and Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson jetted to Australia on Thursday, to meet with its newly elected Labor government. With both of them gone, Davis spent Friday as the countrys technical prime minister. The last time that happened was during the Ardern-Winston Peters government.

More frequent international travel is one of the main signs Parliament is returning to business as usual, if anyone knows what that means any more.

Opposition MPs are getting back into the business of calling for resignations. Watch out Mallard, and Police Minister Poto Williams. The debating chamber is livening up, with ministers firing back and more backbench MPs coming along to jeer or cheer.

Politics isnt all about Parliament. Sometimes, major announcements occur at sites such as a funeral home in Masterton.

The Budget, now almost a distant memory, is generally marked by showy announcements and a roadshow for Cabinet ministers to tout their wares. But, we found out this week, an audience of about 50 people at a funeral home in Masterton were lucky enough to have their own, private Budget announcement last month.

GCSB boss Andrew Hampton gave a speech to the Wairarapa branch of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs on the night of the Budget and mentioned his colleagues at the Security Intelligence Service (SIS) had received funding for foreign interference work.

This, in itself, isnt a surprise. But, given there was no listed spending for this in the Budget, it was interesting enough to follow up: How much money went to this?

In typical fashion for intelligence matters, the response was all signal and little substance. Neither the agencies or Intelligence Agencies Minister Andrew Little wanted to say.

Little said he approved Hampton mentioning foreign interference funding, as it reminded everyone the Government was committed to protecting the country from such threats. By everyone, he presumably means the 50 people in the audience at Mastertons Rosewood Funeral Home.

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Points of Order: Normality returns, with Kelvin Davis back in charge - Stuff

OPINION: Politics is driven by political parties, personalities, leaders and policies. But more than anything else it is driven by events.

When Bill Clintons adviser James Carville said it's the economy, stupid in 1992 initially just to campaign workers the phrase went down in political folklore, precisely because it so pithily summed up what, in the end, matters to most voters, most of the time.

And events are now occurring thick and fast: there is inflation, which is pinching household and business budgets. There are shortages, especially of building materials that are threatening the stability of parts of the sector, and now a spate of shootings in Auckland and elsewhere. Interest rates are on the way up, house prices on the way down. It is harder to get credit. And supermarket and petrol bills are hurting.

The Government won the Covid war, but dealing with the disrupted and expensive peace is now proving a challenge.

Breakfast

They will continue discussions in Sydney on Friday with the issue of 501 deportees is expected to be front and centre of talks.

READ MORE:* Covid-19: Pandemic politics are on the way out, but a world of uncertainty remains* Christopher Luxon's surge reveals inflexible and stale Labour in need of a reset* Christopher Luxon surges to bring National neck and neck with Labour after only four months

The irony is that traditional headline figures are strong: unemployment is very low, economic growth is healthy enough, terms of trade (the prices New Zealand receives for exports) are strong. But for most wage and salary earners, inflation running at just shy of 7% is stronger.

These have been dog years for the Government. The effect of Covid has meant that the prime minister and her top line of ministers have had far more exposure to the public than would have usually been the case after five years in office. That was important during the early days of the pandemic, but is much more difficult coming out of it.

While simplistic and not the full picture, it does feel like this Government is much older than its years. Courtesy of Covid and lockdowns, it has also been intimately involved in peoples lives in a way no other government in New Zealand probably has been.

If you step back for a moment, it is difficult to realise just how much Omicron has been normalised and the world has now moved on. On Thursday, seven people died with Covid-19. Once that many reported cases would have sent shivers down spines. While every death is a tragedy, it is clear that the country has, to a reasonable degree, moved on.

The politics of all of this will be extremely challenging for the Government over the next few months.

Unusually, most political polls show that both major parties are roughly polling in the high 30s, with ACT and the Greens both towards 10 per cent. This suggests the electorate is a little more polarised than is usual. On most polls the result is very tight, with the Mori Party often the kingmaker.

But given the particular issues swirling around, it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that, as of today, the election is now the National Partys, or the National-ACT centre-right blocs to lose. Not because of an outstanding performance by Christopher Luxon and the rebranding of National although it has been solid and mostly error-free but because some issues are simply bigger than any one governments ability to handle them.

Bridie Witton/Stuff

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in Australia with Anthony Albanese.

In the recent Australian election loss of Scott Morrison, a number of factors were at play. Lots of people hadn't forgiven him for going to Hawaii during the bushfires, and inaction on climate change finally tipped over into an election-winning issue, but there was also the dead weight of incumbency.

People were simply sick of Morrison. Australias response to Covid had been similarly successful to New Zealands, with a similar policy suite deployed, less the harder-edged level 4 lockdowns. But inflation was rising, shortages were biting and the phone from a similarly overexposed Morrison to voters seemed to be off the hook.

So far, Luxons timing as leader has been prescient. When elected in November along with then finance spokesperson Simon Bridges he identified the cost of living as the key issue. It has been pursued with vigour and mostly in a disciplined manner. But crucially, the political strategy aligned with peoples lived reality.

Careful calibration also ensued over the spate of gun crimes and shootings, Luxon taking the line that Police Minister Poto Williams should be replaced while stressing it isnt personal, and she could be good at other jobs. In an interview earlier this week he even used a version of the old Tony Blair line: tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime.

However, Luxons surge should not be overstated. And his political skills still feel learned, rather than instinctive. The election is a long way away and though he has resurrected Nationals vote to the 40% range, the question is whether he has the extra gears to grab another 4-6% of the vote and really bite into Labours electoral muscle.

Inflation and shootings should both continue to surge would on their own probably be enough to lose most governments most elections. Keeping the peace and public safety and price stability are basic functions of government although responsibility for the latter rests with the Reserve Bank.

Labour has very reasonably pointed out that gun crime has been the result of a crime wave exported from Australia and that inflation is a global phenomenon. Both true.

But the problem is that, with a grumpy electorate, Labour might still have been blamed for it. Or voters, keen to put the pain of the past couple of years behind them, might also do that by changing the government.

The prime ministers recent successful trip to the United States, including the White House, was a reminder that Jacinda Ardern does have extra gears when she needs them. Free from being bogged down by Covid and the grinding tiredness and domestic focus of the past couple of years, she was open, expansive, impressive and seemed to rediscover her much-vaunted communication skills.

Being out of the country more and she will be this year will also probably help Ardern, not only because it elevates the prime ministership out of day-to-day domestic policy squabbles, but also because it cuts down the risk of further overexposure.

However, in order to right the ship, Labour will have to make a few key moves and quite quickly. The first is the Cabinet reshuffle, which is expected in the next few weeks. A new police minister is a must, as well as most probably moving Nanaia Mahuta out of local government to try to reset the Three Waters debate to what it is at heart: an infrastructure overhaul.

Then theres the question of whether a way will be found to move on Speaker Trevor Mallard, who has become a weird sort of lightning rod for dissatisfaction with the Government.

The front bench also needs a more general refresh. The same faces have been on TV too much. The Government needs a fresher feel and new direction.The economic story it is telling will also need to sharpen over the coming months.

But there can be little doubt that National could barely hope to be in a better position, considering where the party was at the start of last November. The times suit what many voters consider its traditional strengths (whether that is fair or not): economic management and law and order.

The question is whether the momentum can be sustained and whether Luxon, finance spokesperson Nicola Willis and the surrounding team can go to that next level to drive National consistently into the mid-40s.

Remembering all the while that, as much as current events favour National, events and the political environment can always change.

The other thing that National forgets at its peril is that while she has fallen from the stratospheric heights of 2020, Ardern is still popular, a formidable campaigner and still Labours best chance at re-election.

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It may be 16 months away, but the 2023 election is now National's to lose - Stuff

After a US trip that ticked all the boxes, the PM arrives to a more prosaic set of challenges and a familiar message from the polls.

Jacinda Ardern is New Zealands Gorbachev. That was the headline on the Australian edition of The Spectator this week. An improvement, at least, on the assessment of a US politician who six months ago called her a Lenin with hair, in league with satanic communists, or the fabulist headline in the reliably swivel-eyed Trump media bible Breitbart yesterday: New Zealand Socialist Jacinda Ardern, in Power After a Sham Election, Gets Warm Welcome from Biden.

Hyperbole notwithstanding, the Spectators central argument was uncontroversial. For Ardern, like a lot of leaders including the former Soviet president, there is a considerable disconnect between her high regard internationally and the discontent she is facing domestically. And with the exception of, say, the Spectator Australia, wingnut Republican state senators and Breitbart, thats true enough. At the end of a highly successful US trip which exceeded any reasonable expectations, the scene back in Aotearoa will be more prosaic, the mood grumpier. The adrenaline runs slower.

Labour Party president Claire Szab tried to harness some of the DC feel-good factor by firing out an email to supporters even as Ardern was making her way to the airport, praising our amazing PM, a landmark White House meeting and a hugely successful first trip to the US since Covid, as well as a a truly incredible speech at Harvard that no other world leader could have delivered. It was an opportune moment to shake the tin for donations, but the afterglow will be brief; in more ways than one, immediately upon landing Ardern goes from international to domestic.

While there may be more geopolitics than usual across the months to come an in-person meeting with Albanese is a priority and New Zealand will have an important part to play at next months Pacific Islands Forum for the most part the focus is local. Three Waters. Fair Pay Agreements. He Waka Eke Noa and the formula to bring farming into the Emissions Trading Scheme. Co-governance. The health system overhaul. Housing. And so on. Coursing through it all: inflation and the cost-of-living crisis.

The 2020 election was an aberration. There will be no Covid election sequel. MMP was built to avoid majority one-party governments. Elections are almost always close. The pandemic is not over, but politically were inching back to the norm. The last four opinion polls provide a clear picture, and its a picture of a knife edge. In most, but not all, of those polls, National and Act are a whisker ahead of Labour and the Greens. The Mori Party is suddenly being sighted wandering the halls of parliament with a shining crown under its arm.

With, say, 16 months to the election, the parties in parliament today all look likely to be returned.While Act might have lately bobbled up and down, in large part according to Nationals level of competence, David Seymour has hauled the party out of purgatory. Across the five elections before 2020, Act averaged less than 1.5% of the vote. Today, pending some calamity, theyre assured of a return to parliament, comfortably above the 5% threshold. The Greens, meanwhile, are defying naysayers and the gravity of small parties that support governments to sit around 10%. Neither Act nor the Greens has ever been part of a formal governing coalition in New Zealand. One will, Id wager, by the end of next year.

All of which means were in for an early start to the long season of pre-election rulings-out and bottom lines all round. A National government will hinge on Act support. A Labour government on the Greens. Reasonably enough, were going to want to get a sense of how they might look and what they would prioritise. The same goes for Te Pti Mori.

Its useful in that light to look not just at the individual parties in the polls, but for want of a better word the blocs. Take TVNZ-commissioned Colmar/Kantar polling, the most recent of which was this week: if you splice out the urn-shaped two worst years of the pandemic, you can see a kind of reversion to mean. True, New Zealand First isnt included, but you get the drift.

Another Labour message issued this week, one much less upbeat that Claire Szab's, came in the form of an attack ad on National leader Chris Luxon, zooming desperately into his face to upbraid a shortage of new policy announcements.

It contained at least a couple of clues to Labour's thinking. First, theyre moving already into campaign mode. Second, theyre determined to goad National out of the small-target strategy the approach that worked for Anthony Albaneses Labor Party in the Australian election. It might not make for exciting elections, but its not hard to see why Team Luxon would go the same way: steer away from big, sweeping pledges; talk about economic management; let the election be decided as a referendum on The State of Things.

From that standpoint, the most hopeful data point for Ardern revealed this week came in the Talbot Mills corporate poll, as published by the NZ Herald. That showed the "right track/wrong track" gauge moving in the governments favour, with 51% saying the country was on the right track against 40% picking the wrong track. The previous poll had 48% to 42%. It's still a much lower "right track" figure than the peak of the pandemic, when it was in the high 70s. But it could mean something. Or it might just be a burst of turbulence on the way back down to Earth.

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Jacinda Ardern returns to New Zealand as the mood reverts to the mean - The Spinoff

SINGAPORE New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is in Singapore from Monday (April 18) to Wednesday for an official visit.

She is accompanied by her partner Clarke Gayford, New Zealand Minister for Trade and Export Growth Damien OConnor and senior officials.

This is Ms Arderns second official visit to Singapore, following her first in May 2019. It is also her first official overseas visit since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In a press statement on Monday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) said that Ms Arderns visit reaffirms the excellent relations between both countries, underpinned by the SingaporeNew Zealand Enhanced Partnership, which was established during Ms Arderns first visit to Singapore.

During her visit this week, Ms Ardern will attend an official welcome ceremony at the Istana on Tuesday and call on President Halimah Yacob.

Following that, Ms Ardern will meet and hold a joint press conference with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Mr Lee will also host her to an official lunch.

Ms Ardern will have a new orchid hybrid named in her honour during her visit, said MFA in its statement.

Ms Ardern will visit Japan after her trip to Singapore.

In a statement last Monday, the New Zealand Government said that the visits aim to reconnect New Zealand with two of its closest Indo-Pacific economic and security partners.

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New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern in Singapore for 3-day visit

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern meets US President Joe Biden in the Oval Office. Photo / Supplied

OPINION:

There is historic symmetry that it's a Labour Prime Minister who has decisively positioned New Zealand with Washington as the Great Game between the US and China unfolds, most especially across the Pacific.

It was the great Labour war leader, Peter Fraser, who forged the military alliance with the US after the fall of Singapore in 1942, which later led to Anzus in 1951.

Four decades later, it was another Labour Prime Minister, the brilliant but flawed David Lange, who broke the same alliance.

Just two years short of the 40th anniversary of Lange's election, Jacinda Ardern is the third Labour Prime Minister to be fated to have to choose sides in a Cold War. The symmetry between her and Fraser was noted by California Governor Gavin Newsom when he met Ardern in San Francisco last week.

If some Labour supporters are unsettled with how firmly Ardern has positioned New Zealand with Washington, some National supporters were similarly startled when party doyen John Key went on TV3's AM show on Monday and declared Beijing would be in the South Pacific "forever" and argued New Zealand should partner with them.

Fraser, Lange and Ardern's historic moves were more forced on them than planned.Fraser spent 1917 in jail for sedition, after criticising William Massey's introduction of conscription, before introducing it himself in 1940.

Lange never intended his anti-nuclear theatrics to cause our suspension from Anzus, but the mishandling of our informal invitation and the US's formal request for the USS Buchanan to visit New Zealand in 1985 meant he bumbled into it.

Ardern has always been more of an Americophile, with her Mormon background and semester spent at Arizona State University in 2001. Those present in their meetings say she even managed to build a professional rapport with former President Donald Trump.

Yet Ardern's earliest political experience was as a staffer for Helen Clark and Phil Goff when they were working towards the free-trade agreement with China, when the multilateral rules-based system was still operating adequately, and before Xi Jinping became President of China. Ardern became Prime Minister before Xi transformed himself into president-for-life and when Russia launching a full-scale invasion against a European state remained unthinkable.

The Prime Minister can never have expected it would fall to her to choose between Washington and Beijing, but choose she has, as clearly understood by the great powers. If Ardern's planned visit to China proceeds this year, it will, at best, be awkward.

Despite Key's insouciance, keeping less friendly great powers out of the South Pacific has always been one of New Zealand's major foreign policy goals. The United Tribes of New Zealand's communications with the British leading to the signing of Te Tiriti o Waitangi were partly about limiting French and American influence in Aotearoa. Fraser's alliance with the US and then Anzus were about keeping out Japan and Chinese and Russian communists.

In its 2021 Defence Assessment, the Ministry of Defence identified "the establishment of a military base or dual-use facility in the Pacific by a state that does not share New Zealand's values and security interests" to be the first of the most threatening developments to New Zealand's defence and security interests.

That is code for China and only the most naive observers could misunderstand the increasingly less long-term objectives behind its activity in the South Pacific, including the current 10-day jaunt through the region by Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Great-power foreign ministers don't visit island micro-states out of curiosity or carry gifts borne with altruism, but because they have strategic intent.

ACT's foreign affairs spokesperson, Brooke van Velden, put it best, when she asked Parliament of Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta on Tuesday, "Why is she still here and not visiting the Pacific?" Van Velden received no useful answer, although Ardern is set to announce a no-expenses-spared visit to New Zealand by new Samoan Prime Minister, Fiame Naomi Mata'afa, this month. Similar invitations should be extended to other Pacific leaders as soon as possible.

But van Velden is right that Mahuta should seldom be in New Zealand now that borders have reopened. Mahuta's background and connections make her perhaps the perfect New Zealand foreign minister to get on a plane and better Wang's Pacific swing.

So too should the Prime Minister plan a major tour of South Pacific capitals. Even her harshest critics know her interpersonal skills are unmatched. If anyone can trump Wang's goodwill tour it is Ardern and Finance Minister Grant Robertson, a former diplomat, surely also appreciates cash is needed to secure New Zealand's defence and security interests in the Pacific.

Looking ahead, Ardern has promised a Cabinet reshuffle before the end of the year. That would be routine in any government, but the polls demand she refresh her team.

Mahuta needs urgently to become a full-time foreign minister and is, in any case, perhaps the worst possible person to sell the Government's Three Waters proposals. That job will presumably fall to Robertson, because of his political skills and that Three Waters ultimately falls under his job as Infrastructure Minister.

Kiri Allen would be a potential replacement as Local Government Minister, but without Three Waters.

Elsewhere in the Cabinet, Police Minister Poto Williams has mature ideas about modern policing but Ardern will need a more traditional law and order conservative to front the portfolio in election year.

Kieran McAnulty could fulfil that role. Next in line for elevation, the Wairarapa MP clearly identifies with what remains of Labour's non-woke, provincial working-class bloke constituency.

With Covid now just one of several winter viruses putting the elderly and others at risk, expect Chris Hipkins' Covid-19 Response job to go back to ordinary health ministers Andrew Little, Peeni Henare and especially Ayesha Verrall.

Little has an enormous job ahead with his vision of centralising the health system. After his first jab at Pharmac this week, look for it to be fully integrated into Health New Zealand so that trade-offs can finally be made between pharmaceutical and more expensive and dangerous surgical interventions.

Ardern's trip to the US went as well as she could have hoped. On the business side, Trade Minister Damien O'Connor another more conservative, working-class Labour MP has won a big and perhaps surprising fan in his boss. Businesspeople accompanying Ardern were impressed that she opened doors to no less than Larry Fink, chairman and CEO of BlackRock, managing over US$10 trillion in investment funds. They are grateful for the publicity stunts she performed to promote their products.

A good week's work. But next week, of course, it's back to the price of cheese and deteriorating polls.

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Matthew Hooton: Ardern decisively positions NZ with the US in a new Cold War - New Zealand Herald

The Queen is a woman "who smiles with her eyes" and relates easily to people from all walks of life, former Commonwealth secretary-general Sir Don McKinnon has told those at a service of tribute in Wellington.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was among dignitaries marking the milestone of seven decades on the throne at St Paul's Cathedral in Wellington.

She was joined by the government's administrator Dame Helen Winkelmann.

Attention then shifted to representatives of the Defence Forces as they marched to the cathedral's altar.

The deputy Speaker, Cabinet Ministers, members of the diplomatic corps and members of the public were then formally welcomed to the service.

Bishop Duckworth reminded the congregation Elizabeth was just 25 when she became Queen, and during her 70 years of service "the world has changed dramatically".

"The Queen remains a symbol of our constitutional arrangements."

She has visited Aotearoa 10 times and laid the foundation stone of St Paul's Cathedral during her first visit, he said.

Former deputy prime minister and ex-Commonwealth secretary-general Sir Don McKinnon gave the keynote address, describing the Queen as "a remarkable woman" who was probably the most photographed person in the world.

He did not want to "upset the Buckingham Palace courtiers" with anything he said, recalling the regular meetings

He would always try to "have a laugh" with her and regularly discussed the All Blacks and other topics that would lighten the occasion.

"Her interests were far and wide" but talking about horses and cattle always engaged her interest.

"She had an immense knowledge of horse breeds all over the world."

This was a response he would expect from horse people everywhere, he said.

On Commonwealth Day a reception was always held at Marlborough House in London and he saw her genuine warmth and her ability to relate to people from all walks of life.

"Incredibly warm personality, very calm all the time, smiled with her eyes very vividly and serene when you think of all that was going on around her.

"Seventy years of grit, grace and glory," he said in conclusion.

Ardern did a short reading from an entry into Hansard in 1952 written by former prime minister Sidney Holland who attended the funeral of George VI, Elizabeth's father, and saw her write her signature as queen for the first time.

Holland observed in his Hansard entry that perhaps it was the start of a new Elizabethan era and Ardern said his words were prophetic as she has become the first monarch to be queen for 70 years.

The Queen had been staunch and a comfort during times of tragedy, she said.

It concluded with prayers and the singing of God Save the Queen.

The cathedral's bells rang as people left.

Overnight the UK began four days of pageantry, parties and parades to celebrate Queen Elizabeth's reign.

The first day included the traditional Trooping of the Colour and a flypast of 70 aircraft over The Mall and Buckingham Palace.

Senior royals joined the Queen on the palace balcony to watch the flypast.

However, at the end of the day the palace issued a statement saying the Queen will not attend a National Service of Thanksgiving at St Paul's Cathedral tomorrow because she was suffering "some discomfort" after a full programme earlier today.

The 96-year-old monarch has cancelled several appearances in recent months because of mobility issues.

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'Seventy years of grit, grace and glory': NZ tribute to Queen - Otago Daily Times

President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in the Oval Office of the White House - China's reaction was muted. Photo / AP

China's reaction to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's meeting with US President Joe Biden was been relatively muted in the view of longtime China watchers - despite a Government spokesman accusing New Zealand of spreading "disinformation" as a result of the visit.

Ardern met Biden at the White House on Wednesday morning, New Zealand time.

The meeting produced a joint statement that noted New Zealand and the United States' close ties on matters of security and singled out China's recent inroads in the Pacific as concerning.

"We note with concern the security agreement between the People's Republic of China and the Solomon Islands," the declaration read.

"In particular, the United States and New Zealand share a concern that the establishment of a persistent military presence in the Pacific by a state that does not share our values or security interests would fundamentally alter the strategic balance of the region and pose national-security concerns to both our countries," it said.

After that meeting, China's foreign affairs ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said the statement was a "hype-up" and had "ulterior motives to create disinformation and attack and discredit China".

University of Canterbury Professor Anne-Marie Brady, an internationally renowned expert on the propaganda system of the Chinese Communist Party, said there had not been much fallout from the meeting.

"It's a very bad look for the Xi Government to have got NZ-China relations to the point that they'll say their concerns in public," Brady said.

Brady said China's recent diplomatic push into the Pacific was beginning to look like an act of hubris, particularly after it failed to get Pacific island nations onboard with a cooperation agreement, which leaked last month, while Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi was touring the region.

"The Xi government's strategic overreach in the Pacific is turning into a diplomatic failure. They don't want the Chinese public to be raising questions about the failure of BRI [the Belt and Road Initiative - President Xi's key foreign policy platform].

"The Wang Yi trip to the Pacific has been a disaster for China. Almost every Pacific state he has visited has politely rebuffed the plan to create a cross-Pacific security agreement led by China that excluded New Zealand and Australia," Brady said.

Former diplomat, and former executive director of the NZ China Council Stephen Jacobi, who led programmes in New Zealand on BRI agreed the reaction from China was fairly soft.

"You've got to see [the reaction] in the context of the rivalry and strategic competition with the US," Jacobi said.

Jacobi said it was only the very end of China's official response to the meeting, which urged New Zealand to hew to its historically independent foreign policy, which was directly addressed to New Zealand, rather than jointly at New Zealand and the US.

"Of course this is the first thing they've said. We're going to have to watch to see if something else happens," Jacobi said.

Jacobi noted that he had spent the day at the China International Import Expo, where China's ambassador to New Zealand Wang Xiaolong had not once mentioned the growing tension between the two countries.

"The ambassador made no mention of it at all in his speech - which was focused on Chinese growth, the success of Covid, the opportunity for New Zealanders to do more business in China," Jacobi said.

He said there was no indication yet that China would look to apply informal sanctions against New Zealand exports. Australian exporters have struggled at times to get goods into China. It has often been presumed this is in retaliation at Australia's more hawkish stance on relations with the superpower.

"There is no suggestion that is a problem at the moment," Jacobi said.

"Of course, we just signed the FTA upgrade, which gives us new procedures to manage difficulties if they arise," he said.

He said the next step in the relationship with China was having a high-level ministerial visit, either the prime minister or the foreign minister. This was difficult at the moment given China's zero-covid policy.

"We have to maintain the direct discussion and engagement," he said.

Jacobi said China had some understanding for New Zealand siding with the United States on particular issues.

"We are who we are, right - we are a Western democracy. That's kind of what we do. The Chinese, however, are quite capable of reading between the lines on these things," he said.

University of Otago Professor Robert Patman agreed the fallout from Ardern's visit had been muted.

"The Chinese continue to make the distinction between Australia and New Zealand in terms of their respective relationships with Washington," Patman said.

He said that while New Zealand was close to the US, it was not in "lockstep" on certain issues like Australia was perceived to be.

"We have a different worldview from both Australia and the United States," he said.

Patman said this difference fed all the way into things like the recently announced Aukus security agreement between Australia, the US, and the UK. He said not being part of the agreement had benefits to New Zealand.

"It gives us a chance to diversify economically," he said.

Patman said Ardern's foreign policy appeared to recognise that China, as a superpower, was going to be involved in the region one way or another, so New Zealand would have to find a way to strengthen the democracies of the Pacific to respond to that challenge.

"We can't contain China, and nor can we take a top-down position, where we say to them 'we know what's best for you'... that's not going to work," Patman said.

"If you're a micro-state you've got opportunities. There's more than one game in town," he said.

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Experts think China pulled punches in muted reaction to Jacinda Ardern-Joe Biden meeting - New Zealand Herald

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern (center) visits with Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky (right) at Amazons headquarters in Seattle. (Photo by Noah Berger / Amazon)

Amazon hosted New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Friday at its Seattle headquarters, where she met with Amazon Web Services CEO Adam Selipsky.

As part of a U.S. tour that also included a reception with Microsoft executives in Seattle and a visit on Tuesday with President Joe Biden, Ardern spent time inside Amazons plant-filled Spheres building and also spoke with Selipsky.

We had a great discussion about digital transformation, skills development, sustainability, and how we are helping organizations across Aotearoa, New Zealand scale and grow internationally, Selipsky wrote on LinkedIn.

Amazon announced last year that it would spend more than $5 billion over 15 years on data centers in New Zealand, where it will launch a new AWS Region. The cloud arm has been active in New Zealand since 2014. Its local customers include Air NZ, the New Zealand Ministry of Health, University of Auckland, and more.

Amazons profitable cloud business continues to help Amazons bottom line; it reported $14.8 billion in revenue for the second quarter, up 37% year-over-year, and operating income of $4.2 billion.

Selipsky, the former Tableau CEO, returned to AWS last year as its CEOafter former AWS chief Andy Jassy was named to succeed Jeff Bezos as Amazon CEO.

Ardern, who spoke at Harvards commencement on Thursday, also visited with Microsoft executives including Microsoft President Brad Smith on her visit to Seattle.

Microsoft recently announced a new partnership with the country, and is also building data centers in New Zealand.

Other tech and startup leaders from New Zealand joined Ardern on her visit to Seattle, including Sam Kidd, CEO of LawVu, which recently announced a new Seattle office.

Im excited about continuing our investment here in Seattle, Kidd wrote in a LinkedIn post about his time in the Emerald City. The unapologetic mindset people have here around building and growing a company is both exciting and refreshing. To have local founded companies the likes of Microsoft, Boeing, Amazon and Starbucks is incredible. There is literally something in the coffee here.

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Photos: New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern visits Amazon HQ in Seattle - GeekWire

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern smiles as she delivers the keynote address at Harvard's 371st Commencement. Photo / Mary Schwalm, AP

EDITORIAL:

When it was confirmed Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern had tested positive for Covid on May 14, it seemed her Stateside trip might be called off.

As it turned out, the trade mission was curtailed for a few days and there have been disappointments as a result.

The first part of the programme in Los Angeles, to press our case as a premium movie-making location, had to be cut. She was due to fly out when US President Joe Biden announced an economic alliance of Indo-Pacific nations, including New Zealand, to counter China's influence in the region.

While recovering from a "moderate" bout of the virus she is now making whistlestop visits to New York, Washington DC, Boston, San Francisco and Seattle.

Most significantly, Ardern has secured the sought-after meeting with the US President. Ardern has confirmed the meeting with Biden will take place on Tuesday at the White House and she will also meet with Vice President Kamala Harris.

She beguiled once again on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert, a TV show with an average audience of 3.6 million viewers.

However, the address at the 371st Harvard Commencement ceremony in Boston will be a milestone in her career.

At the eight-minute mark, she received a standing ovation when she told the audience New Zealand had banned "military-style, semi-automatics and assault rifles" and another when she mentioned "the de-criminalisation of abortion".

These are touchstone issues for young America right now, as the Supreme Court considers overturning the right to an abortion, and after the slaying of 19 primary school-aged children and two teachers in Texas last Tuesday.

Ardern delighted and challenged the 30,000 in attendance at the Harvard ceremony, including some of America's brightest and most promising young people. For them, this will be their lasting impression of New Zealand, with its amusing and self-effacing female leader determinedly calling to resolve hatred with kindness.

Like her policies or not, Ardern represents New Zealand well on the world stage.

She has said of the disruptions to the trip, "in these times, you roll with the Covid curveballs that you're thrown".

At Harvard, she knocked one out of the park.

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Editorial: PM Jacinda Ardern's trials and triumphs on US trip - New Zealand Herald