Category Archives: Jacinda Ardern

SUNGMI KIM/Stuff

Jacinda Ardern is fighting political battles on many fronts.

ANALYSIS: On the shortest day of the year and as a cold snap hits the country, it is unsurprising the Government seems to have a case of the winter blues.

First the health system is under clear strain with workforce shortages particularly in the nursing workforce where there is a staggering shortage of 4000 nurses, according to the nurses union.

Health Minister Andrew Little confirmed on Monday there were over 2500 equivalent full-time nursing vacancies in March.

Second, the Governments new bill to change Oranga Tamariki oversight to a board contained within the Ministry of Social Development is being opposed by every other party in Government. It is rare to find ACT, Te Pti Mori and the Greens in agreement on much.

Thats not to mention various survivors criticising the overhaul.

ROBERT KITCHIN/STUFF

PM Jacinda Ardern speaks to media before Caucus.

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Consumer confidence is now at its lowest ever ebb since the series began in 1988. Lower confidence means less spending, which means economic contraction. Whether that leads to a full-blown recession will only be known with time, but its not good news and demonstrates the economic anxiety out there.

And then, right when the shortages of Gib board in particular are making the news, the Government did what everyone screaming out for plasterboard to finish their house or renovation was asking for: another taskforce.

Good to see that after five years in power and months into a plasterboard shortage, the Government has again hit the ground reviewing.

The prime minister is now also under pressure to apologise to people caught up in the MIQ system, since the courts have now found that from September 1 to December 17 last year the system unjustifiably limited the rights of the rights of some New Zealanders to enter the country.

The Government has said it wont appeal, but the prime minister, so far, is certainly not apologising.

This is a niggly time of year for Governments. Darkness and cold envelopes voters, and while the newly minted Holiday of Matariki will offer many people a long weekend reprieve, there is a long cold winter ahead before the next holiday of Labour Day in late October.

While Covid-19 may have retreated from the front pages, what we are seeing now is the consequences of the Governments Covid-19 policies during 2020 and 2021.

Dom Thomas/RNZ

The hospital waiting lists, deferred surgeries and staff shortages have all been bottled up, or simply not fixed.

The flu, which is back with a vengeance, has not really been around for the past two years thanks to closed borders, and Covid public health measures.

The hospital waiting lists, deferred surgeries and staff shortages have all been bottled up, or simply not fixed during the acute phase of the pandemic either due to closed borders or other Covid priorities.

Obviously, the lingering questions around MIQ are also as a result of Covid. As are the inflationary pressures squeezing through the economy as a result of loose monetary and fiscal policy that arguably lasted for too long.

That these issues are not unique to New Zealand is no surprise a similar set of policies were pursued in lots of places in the developed world even if New Zealands big blue moat protected us more and lockdowns and the like were taken up with greater vigour than elsewhere.

Politically, it gets tougher from here. The victories of Covid-19 management are now well behind the Government, the counterfactual of lots of deaths never experienced.

But the deferred challenges as a result of the response to Covid are here now. And thats without worrying about a resurgent opposition.

Winter is here for the Government.

Continue reading here:

Jacinda Ardern's Government catches the post-Covid winter blues - Stuff

Labour's Tinetti is vying for the Tauranga seat.

OPINION:

It pays not to over-interpret byelection results, but when it comes to the Tauranga byelection both National and Labour should bear something in mind.

Labour should not too easily dismiss the result as a foregone conclusion and National should not get too cocky about its convincing victory.

Labour's caution should be in case Tauranga proves to be something of a bellwether result at least for other provincial seats.

All Labour's candidate Jan Tinetti could muster by way of solace after getting about 25 per cent of the byelection votes was to say she had done no worse than in 2017. In 2017, Tinetti was a first-time candidate and Labour was rising from a dismal poll base.

If the byelection result is mirrored in the general election result, then Labour has lost all of the advantage it got in the 2020 election and in the Tauranga byelection it seemed happy to let it go without even a fight.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern should perhaps be ruing her decision not to make just a little bit more effort in the Tauranga byelection and writing it off as a lost cause so thoroughly from the very beginning.

National was always going to win, the PM was right in that. But not putting in at least a token effort to get the Labour vote out and try to hold on to some of the 2020 vote in that byelection may have been a mistake, with a general election little more than a year away.

Ardern did not visit the campaign at all, partly by circumstance but also by design: she was out of action with Covid-19 and then on the US and Australia trips.

She had a visit scheduled in the last week but was sick that day. On byelection day she was in Queenstown.

The by design element was so she was not associated with a stonking loss - and to try to starve it of attention.

In a bid to distance herself from the loss, Ardern had written off Labour's chances from day one - not just downplayed them but written them off completely.

It left Jan Tinetti fighting alone. It also sent an appalling message to the people of Tauranga - and by extension the people of other provinces. To Labour voters it sent the message not to bother voting. To the rest it sent the message that Labour had given up holding on to its 2020 haul.

In 2020 Labour came close to taking the Tauranga seat Simon Bridges' majority shrank to 1800 votes and Labour beat National in the party vote.

It did take a number of other supposedly safe National provincial seats.

At the time the PM acknowledged many of those voters may not have normally voted for Labour - and pledged to govern for all of them. Success in 2023 will depend on Labour at least holding some of them.

The Tauranga byelection would have been a way of trying to hold up that vote.

As it was, Act put up more of a fight in Tauranga than Labour did and it had even less chance of winning.

The reason Act leader David Seymour went there time and again was to take out insurance for 2023 when the same voters will also be casting party votes.

Show the voters you're there and listening through the term and it just might help in 2023. Act's candidate Cameron Luxton pulled in 10 per cent of the vote, higher than in 2017 or 2020, despite National's vote also rising.

As for National, the votes for Sam Uffindell were as much votes for leader Christopher Luxon and renewed hope in the party among its base as for Uffindell himself. Luxon needed a good win there by way of concrete evidence that the party was back.

However, National should not get too cocky because there is little doubt Uffindell's result was inflated by a low turnout on the left.

The Green Party did not stand a candidate at all. Labour barely raised a finger to campaign. Once Ardern had declared the contest over before it began, its voters had very little incentive to go out and tick a box.

The 2015 Northland byelection showed National the perils of taking a win in a seat for granted.

Then prime minister John Key announced that NZ First's Winston Peters did not have a snowball's chance in hell of winning it. Northland may well be the winterless North, but it was clearly a bitterly cold day in hell and Peters won.

Tauranga could well be a lesson to Labour that it also pays not to look as if you are taking a loss in a seat for granted.

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Claire Trevett: PM Jacinda Ardern may regret writing off the Tauranga byelection as a lost cause - New Zealand Herald

The disastrous situation in New Zealands hospitals continues to worsen, with ongoing deaths from COVID-19, growing hospitalisations for influenza and other winter illnesses, and a severe staffing shortage.

Yesterday, another 17 people died with COVID, including a child under 10 years of age. A total of 362 people were in hospital with the virus.

Altogether, the Ministry of Health has recorded 1,432 COVID-related deaths. All but 59 of these occurred in 2022, during the highly infectious Omicron wave, and as a direct result of the Labour Party-led governments criminal decision last October to end its zero COVID policy.

The government put the demands of big business for a return to work ahead of protecting the health and lives of the population. No lockdowns have been implemented this year, the border has fully reopened, vaccine mandates have been scrapped, and schools and nonessential businesses are open.

According to the Worldometer website, New Zealand recorded 14 deaths per million people in the last seven days. This is the sixth-highest rate in the world, surpassed only by Taiwan, Portugal and three Caribbean island countries.

On June 20, Radio NZs Corin Dann asked Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern whether she was considering reintroducing measures such as mandatory masks in schools, given the pressures on ED [hospital emergency departments], the ongoing deaths, the ongoing hospitalisations.

In response, Ardern defended the present settings, which amount to a policy of mass infection. She noted that the government had eased public health restrictions when the COVID hospitalisation rate was even higher than it is now. She added that, in some hospitals, flu is now a greater cause of respiratory hospitalisation than COVID-19.

Middlemore Hospital in South Auckland is reportedly seeing a fourfold increase in the number of influenza patients compared with 2019 and previous years. Influenza, however, can be controlled with the same measures used to stop COVID-19. In 2020 and 2021, thanks to New Zealands elimination strategy, the flu virus practically disappeared.

The government is seeking to normalise the crisis in public hospitals. Health minister Andrew Little told Radio NZ yesterday that hospitals were under pressure, but added that every hospital scales back planned care every winter, there is nothing unusual about that.

Hospital overcrowding is having tragic consequences. On June 15, a 51-year-old woman arrived at the Middlemore ED with a severe headache, but went home after being told she could not be seen for several hours. She died hours later of a brain haemorrhage.

A doctor at the hospital told Stuff that the woman might have been saved if she had been seen immediately. They said: We dont know what to do, we are suffering in silence. We know how bad everything is but no one will acknowledge it.

Stuff also reported on June 17 that a woman who had a miscarriage was sent home from Wellington Hospital and forced to wait two days before her dead baby could be delivered, because of short staffing.

On June 21, hospitals in Wellington deferred all non-urgent operations for another four weeks, with the District Health Board saying the current staffing challenges will continue for the foreseeable future. Thousands of people, many living with painful and debilitating conditions, are unable to access the care they need.

A recent survey by the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists of heads of department and clinical directors at several different hospitals, found an overall staffing shortage of 22 percent. The Wairarapa District Health Board in the lower North Island reported the worst shortage of 50 percent. The survey also found that the real level of need throughout the country exceeds the publicly advertised staff vacancies.

A worker at the Taranaki District Health Board told the WSWS: Almost all healthcare workers are getting tired. Hospitals cant fill out vacancies, as the number of people applying for jobs in this sector is getting lower day by day. He said the staffing shortage was largely because of a significant reduction of international workforce after the COVID-19 border closure, and the refusal of the government to recognise all overseas nursing qualifications.

The worker pointed out that a large number of hospital patients had been transferred from aged care facilities, where conditions have deteriorated sharply.

A nurse at a Wellington retirement home told the WSWS that understaffing in the sector was terrible. Across the aged care sector, he said, we currently have a shortage of 2,000 registered nurses. This has forced some facilities to close, while others have stopped accepting new residents.

At his workplace, there is a shortage of six nurses. We need three nurses per shift, but usually we are getting two. This means in an average shift, one nurse must look after 20 to 30 residents. This impacts on patient care, because sometimes they are getting their medication late, and the nurse said he worries about what might happen in the event of an emergency.

He also said immigration restrictions had exacerbated the crisis. A large proportion of nurses are migrants, especially from India and the Philippines. The border has now reopened, but the nurse said overseas registered nurses were choosing to move to Australia because of New Zealands low wages.

Aged care residents are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19. Staff are required to take a rapid antigen test every day, and visits are limited to one hour, but visitors do not face the same testing requirements. Despite the precautions, the Wellington nurse said, among our staff more than 50 percent have had COVID, requiring them to stay home for seven days and placing pressure on other workers to work long hours. I am working more than 60 hours per week, he said.

In response to health minister Andrew Littles statements that the healthcare system is coping, the nurse said: Which politician will say we are in terrible conditions? They will always say, We are good, we are under control. All over the world, all politicians tell lies. He said the minister should come into the community and ask how terrible it is.

The New Zealand Nurses Organisation yesterday criticised Littles statements as absolutely disrespectful to healthcare workers. But the unions have fully collaborated with the governments reopening policy, herding people back into unsafe schools and other workplaces.

The fight for a fully-resourced elimination strategy, including an immediate lockdown with compensation for workers and small businesses, must be taken up by workers in a rebellion against the pro-capitalist trade unions. This requires the formation of new organisationsrank-and-file workplace safety committees, controlled by workers themselvesand a political movement of the working class, in opposition to Labour and its allies, for the socialist reorganisation of society.

Read more here:

New Zealand government maintains let it rip policy despite worsening crisis in hospitals - WSWS

ROBERT KITCHIN/Stuff

Christopher Luxon and Andrew Bayly answer questions from reporters as they make their way into the House.

Two major political polls continue to diverge with a new poll putting Labour and National neck and neck, and with both Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon boosting their personal approval ratings.

In the latest Talbot Mills corporate poll, Labour is still edging out National. Talbot Mills is also the Labour Partys pollster, and these figures are from a poll series it provides to corporate clients.

In the latest Taxpayers Union Curia Research Poll, conducted by Nationals pollster, National is edging out Labour.

The Talbot Mills poll has Labour at 36% edging out National at 35%, the Green Party at 10%, ACT at 8%. NZ First was polling at 3.3% and Te Pti Mori was at 3.1%. It was conducted June 2-10.

ROBERT KITCHIN/STUFF

PM Jacinda Ardern speaks to media before Caucus.

READ MORE:* Christopher Luxon surges to bring National neck and neck with Labour after only four months* New poll has National above Labour, Mori Party holding balance of power* New poll: National surge up closer to Labour; Greens and ACT down

Both major parties were one point lower than in the same poll conducted in May. The Greens and ACT increased their share of the vote by 2% and 1% respectively.

On those numbers, if an election were held today, the result would still likely hinge on Te Pti Mori. If Te Pti Mori holds Rawiri Waititis electorate seat of Waiariki (or wins another), it would be required by Labour and the Greens to form a majority in the House. Were it not to win an electorate, according to the Elections NZ calculator, Labour and the Greens would win 62 seats in the House.

Of the overall share of the vote going to the political left vs the political right, Labour and the Greens are edging out National-ACT with 46% to 44%.

The poll also delivered a boost in the preferred prime minister ratings to both Jacinda Ardern and Christopher Luxon, with Ardern climbing by 2 points to 42% and Luxon climbing by 3 points to 29%. ACT leader David Seymour remained steady on 8%.

The right-direction wrong-direction question, considered a key metric by pollsters and politicians alike, has also remained relatively static since the start of the year, although decreasing slightly. On the Talbot Mills figures, 50% of the country thinks the Government is going in the right direction, compared to 42% that think it is going in the wrong direction.

This gap has closed significantly since before the pandemic. In mid 2019 on the same poll, 61% thought the country was going in the right direction and 29% wrong direction. That grew to 75% to 13% in March 2021 before narrowing significantly after the onset of the Delta outbreak from August 7 last year.

It is the second poll in as many weeks showing a potentially tight election, but with some divergence. In the Taxpayers Union Curia Research Poll conducted by the National Partys pollster National-ACT were potentially winning an election with National on 37.4% and ACT on 9.4%, with Labour on 34.2% and the Greens on 8.3%.

On that poll, National and ACT could govern with 62 seats in the House of Representatives.

On that poll, the right-direction wrong-direction question yielded significantly different answers, with 50% of the those surveyed saying that the country is headed in the wrong direction, compared to 36% saying it is headed in the right direction.

It is understood that methodological difference likely explain the difference in direction.

The polls were both conducted before the new ministerial shake up by Jacinda Ardern last Monday.

Read more:

Polls diverge on voter direction as left and right blocs neck and neck - Stuff

A recent study from the University of Queensland in Australia sorted through data from 91 countries and came to the conclusion that countries led by women saw about 40% fewer deaths during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic than those led by men.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, female leaders have generally acted more quickly and decisively and have demonstrated greater risk aversion toward losses of human life, the report reads. In addition, they have consistently taken a broader view to consider the wider impact of coronavirus on society and have been more open to innovative thinking, thereby managing the COVID-19 crisis better than their male counterparts.

The Daily Beasts Barbie Latza Nadeau writes:

Using the example of male-led Australia and female-led New Zealand, Tan noted that Australias per capita death rate was shockingly high. As of 31 December 2020, although the population of Australia was only five times that of NZ, Australia had reported around 13 times more infections and 36 times the number of deaths than the numbers reported by New Zealand, he wrote.

[] The study stops around the time vaccines were introduced, at the end of 2020, but showcases the importance of coherent and trustworthy leadership. It is unrealistic to expect all countries to choose female leaders, the study concludes. However, perhaps male leaders could learn from their female counterparts and pay more attention to issues that matter to the health of the broader population and society. Trust in government, law, and order, which take a long time to develop, build a countrys resilience and have proved instrumental during both peace and crises.

The study looked at a number of various determinants and found that factors seemingly unrelated to healthcare (e.g., female leadership) can play essential roles in pandemic prevention, thereby shaping pandemic control outcomes. Taking into account that correlation does not equal causation, the researchers say their findings shed light on public policies that help develop preventive resources so that countries can better prepare for future health crises.

Its good to know that one of those preventative resources is to elect as many women as possible.

(via The Daily Beast, image: New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, by Robert Kitchin Pool/Getty Images)

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Study Shows People Living in Countries Led by Women Have Been Way Safer During COVID - The Mary Sue

Growing food security concerns have seen farmers in Europe push back on trade, instead supporting local, says Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O'Connor.

Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O'Connor. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will meet with European leaders in Belgium next week to progress trade talks.

Negotiations with the European Union got formally underway in 2018 for the trade deal but progress has been slower than expected.

Ardern said the negotiations were in their closing stages.

Minister for Trade and Export Growth Damien O'Connor told Morning Report great progress had been made over the past two years.

"Nothing's a done deal until it's done and trade negotiations are inherently complex."

O'Connor said Ardern meeting in-person with leaders would provide more momentum to move forward.

But he said it was always the more difficult things in negotiations that were left to last.

"It always comes down to the agricultural products, the sensitive ones like beef and dairy and sheep meat to some extent.

"We have a whole lot of farmers in Europe and at the moment food security is a big issue, given the war in Ukraine. The farmers there think the best thing to do is support their own local farmers and actually to push back on trade.

"That's not the reality, in terms of the best solutions, but convincing them is not always easy."

The EU is made up of a number of countries, making it complex for the commissioners, he said.

"None the less, they see the wisdom in being connected with a country that shares many of their values around lowering emissions, better animal welfare standards, high labour standards, considering things like ecology and a better future. That's the reason they want to do a trade deal with us."

O'Connor would be travelling to Belgium on Friday to work with negotiators.

He met with a number of ministers from Europe, and the EU trade commissioner and agricultural minister, last week.

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EU trade talks: Agricultural products one of the challenges in negotiations, says minister - RNZ

National leader Christopher Luxon and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

OPINION:

Jacinda Ardern's reshuffle creates several new contests when ministers with new jobs come up against Christopher Luxon's team in Parliament. Audrey Young looks at who is pitted against whom, and how they are likely to fare.

POLICEChris Hipkins vs Mark Mitchell

This will be the most highly-anticipated contest given the changing of the guard from one of the least confident ministers to one of the most confident and competent in Chris Hipkins. He has several attributes that predecessor Poto Williams did not have the ability to think quickly on his feet under pressure in the House and an ability to admit to the Government having problems, without accepting the blame.

That is how he excelled at Covid management, by admitting to the problems and being clear about the options.

Until the recent spate of drive-by shootings in Auckland, Question Time had become a cat and mouse game between Mark Mitchell and Williams over gang tensions, with Mitchell intent on getting Williams to even acknowledge that gang tensions had risen under the current Government. She made Mitchell look better than he actually is in the House.

JUSTICEKiri Allan vs Paul Goldsmith

Top marks to Kiri Allan for accepting early requests to talk to the news media despite barely having her feet under the Justice desk. Predecessor Kris Faafoi has resisted recent requests, possibly because he did not want to have to answer questions about policy plans he knew he did not intend to pursue because of his impending resignation.

This contest will be more interesting, anyway. Allan's opponent, Paul Goldsmith, has found fresh political legs since being shifted in November to justice from education, where he was withering.

She is a former lawyer and already has the feel of someone more comfortable in the job than Faafoi but she has barely faced political pressure in her previous roles in Conservation and Emergency Management. She and Goldsmith have exchanged opening salvoes already over crime rates and whether the Government is "soft on crime" a term she detests.

She correctly says that any changes to crime rates under Labour have occurred without changes to sentencing. He correctly points out that changes are underway, however, with the repeal of the Three Strikes law close. The Hate Speech laws will be the biggest test.

COVID-19 RESPONSEAyesha Verrall vs Chris Bishop

Despite New Zealanders dying daily in the Covid pandemic, there is no longer a sense of crisis in the Covid-19 issue, which gives Jacinda Ardern the confidence to hand it from Chris Hipkins to the less proven Ayesha Verrall. This is one of the more asymmetrical head-to-head contests in terms of political experience.

Chris Bishop is one of National's best performers and knows how to prosecute a case on the floor of the House, if he has a genuine case. However, Verrall's clinical experience as an infectious diseases specialist gives her an advantage with the public to a point.

An added advantage for Verrall is that Bishop is away and isolating with Covid. But when he returns it may be with a vengeance. Fingers crossed there is no new fatal variant.

BROADCASTINGWillie Jackson vs Melissa Lee

This is the contest that promises to ignite from time to time from a combination of combustible personalities and contentious policies. And both are former broadcasters themselves. Willie Jackson, in his capacity as Mori Development Minister, has been the Government's go-to guy on the issue of co-governance, in which his favoured form of defence has been attack.

That won't cut it as he shepherds the RNZTVNZ merger through in his new job. It is a different and specialist audience and he will be expected to be right across the detail and the arguments.

Melissa Lee has had broadcasting for a long time but has made little headway since claiming the scalp of Clare Curran in the first term. Jackson will have to be disciplined not to make himself a target.

SPEAKERTrevor Mallard vs David Seymour

The date of Mallard's departure from politics has not yet been finalised but he is likely to have just five more full sitting weeks as Speaker before handing over to deputy Adrian Rurawhe in August.

That gives Act leader David Seymour five weeks to try to destroy him and, by association, Jacinda Ardern, for agreeing to give Mallard a diplomatic posting.

Mallard and Seymour started off this term on good terms but relations soured after run-ins over various rulings such as the He Puapua report, and they have never recovered.

It will be a test of Mallard's diplomatic skills not to rise to the bait.

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Audrey Young: Five head-to-head contests to watch after reshuffle - New Zealand Herald

Jacinda Ardern and Scott Morrison, it seems, were never quite in sync.

Before New Zealands leader trumpeted a reset of the relationship with Australia on Friday, she exchanged gifts with the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, who was known at one stage or another as DJ Albo.

I know that he enjoys music and so I shared with him a few [records] from the Flying Nun label in New Zealand, Aldous Harding, The Clean, Ardern said in a cheerful appearance on Australian breakfast television on Friday. And in exchange, I got Powderfinger, Spiderbait and Midnight Oil.

Putting aside some sledging from across the ditch about Albaneses choices, Ardern was asked why this exchange of records could never have happened when Morrison was in office. Arderns very diplomatic formulation was: We did talk about music on occasion but Im not sure that I wouldve exactly picked necessarily the right music if I think I was given that task, so

She let the words linger.

The last time Ardern was in Australia was 28 February 2020, on the same day the first Covid-19 case in New Zealand was announced. It was a visit notable for some particularly forthright exchanges with Morrison. A lot has changed between then and now.

It was a four-flag press conference at the commonwealth parliamentary offices in Sydney on Friday: two Australian, two New Zealand. The two leaders were positively beaming, and seemed to genuinely respect each other, as they vowed to take the trans-Tasman economic relationship to a new level.

Ardern smiled as Albanese recounted how the New Zealand PM had snuck in the very first congratulatory phone call when the Labor leader was on his way to the election night party to give his victory speech on that Saturday in May. Ardern already had Albaneses number as they had spoken when he was opposition leader. Albaneses message, in referencing the call, was: were good friends, weve hit the ground running, the only way is up.

When Albanese did what Morrison was always reluctant to do explicitly and unequivocally acknowledge climate change as a national security challenge Ardern nodded in agreement. When Albanese observed that it was as if Australia was now out of the naughty corner on climate policy, Ardern chuckled.

There were none of the fireworks from some previous leaders meetings, which mainly arose from differences over Australias practice of deporting New Zealand nationals on character grounds, including those who had moved to Australia as children and had no real connections in their country of citizenship.

In 2019, Ardern said bluntly after talks with Morrison in New Zealand that the issue had become corrosive in the trans-Tasman relationship. Visas are not citizenship, Morrison had replied. After the meeting in Sydney on the brink of the pandemic in 2020, Ardern accused Morrison of deporting your people and your problems.

The change in tone on Friday could not be more stark. Ardern was heartened by Albaneses acknowledgment of her strongly held view about the problems associated with returning people who had little or no connection to New Zealand. She said she detected in Albanese a real awareness of some of the issues that weve long raised.

Albanese pledged to consider changes to the way the policy was implemented friends: we hear you and will deal with this issue maturely and deployed what one Twitter user described as empathy gold.

And whats clear is that, if people look at some of the cases [of visa cancellations] its not surprising that the prime minister would make the strong representations that she had, because I would be, if I was in the same position, Albanese said.

Albanese wouldnt say publicly exactly what mechanism he would use. Labor sources had previously suggested the ministerial direction could be tweaked to ensure decisions better take into account the length of time a person has been in Australia and the historic special immigration status of New Zealand citizens. That seems to overlap neatly with Arderns request for Albanese to take greater account of potential deportees links to New Zealand and look at its model of not deporting individuals who had lived in the country for 10 years or more.

In any case, both leaders were keen to emphasise this was only one issue in a large number of topics they discussed, and that the two countries would be stronger together at a time with many regional and global challenges.

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Albanese said the two countries were in lockstep about how to confront the challenges in the Pacific including increasing strategic competition with China seeking new security and economic deals in the region.

Ardern went as far as saying the new Australian government offered the prospect of a reset.

Officials from both governments had laid down some restrictions at the beginning of the joint press conference: three questions from Australian journalists, three from New Zealand journalists. There was minor confusion at the end about the counting, with Ardern thinking it was possible there was one last New Zealander on the list. But Albanese was confident the quota had been filled.

Forgive me were done, Ardern said, as both leaders started to make their way towards the door.

Ive just been through an election, so I can count, Albanese assured Ardern.

77s the key, he joked, referring to the number of seats Labor will hold in the lower house. And then they were off.

Read more here:

The change in tone at Ardern and Albaneses meeting could not have been more stark - The Guardian

Cabinet gets a reshuffle, the aftermath of the latest wild weather and why your next flight ticket could be more expensive than you expect in the latest New Zealand Herald headlines. Video / NZ Herald

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will be hoping Monday's Cabinet reshuffle focuses the eyes of the electorate and her caucus firmly on the future.

The dual retirements of Speaker Trevor Mallard and Minister Kris Faafoi gave Ardern ample excuse for what her office called a "minor" reshuffle (a mid-level reshuffle is probably more accurate).

Most importantly, it gave Ardern the opportunity to gently shove her Police Minister Poto Williams sideways (Williams retains her Cabinet ranking of 10), and publicly acknowledge dissatisfaction with the state of policing. Much like Ardern's belated acknowledgement of the cost-of-living crisis earlier this year, this was an important signal to the electorate that five years into government, Ardern has not become so distant she does not hear public concerns.

The fact she's appointed Chris Hipkins, fast becoming this Government's "Mr Fix-it", to replace Williams is further evidence Ardern saw a problem that needs to be solved. Like a ministerial fire blanket, he's the sort of person you throw at problems before they rage out of control.

Ardern herself said the "current narrative" around the Police portfolio had become distracting. That narrative shifted gears last week when National leader Christopher Luxon challenged Ardern in the House to confirm that Williams would retain her portfolio following the next reshuffle.

Ardern said she had confidence in Williams, but would not confirm she would keep her job. The answer was met with the braying of the National and Act caucuses. Labour was silent. Williams had essentially been sacked in advance in front of 120 MPs.

There's plenty of work for Hipkins to get on with: firearms protection orders, the gun register, and the discussion with Police Commissioner Andy Coster about what can be done to bring the current outbreak of gang violence under control

Whether Hipkins is up for the job is a question for the future. It helps that Ardern has relieved him of the Covid-19 Response portfolio (which has gone to Ayesha Verrall). Having brought a level of order to the messy and ad-hoc Covid-19 Response, which often struggled with excessive partitioning of responsibility, Hipkins is probably better prepared than most to bring some order to policing.

Where he may struggle is that, unlike in the Covid-19 portfolio, in which he was able to create clear lines of communication between the front lines of the response through the Ministry of Health, DPMC, all the way up to the Beehive, there's only so much Hipkins can do to bring the police under control. The police are operationally independent from the Beehive - and for good reason. But this necessary independence does mean corralling them into action can be a challenge.

Ardern also stripped Williams of her Building and Construction portfolio, giving it to Megan Woods. This portfolio, which comprises not just the perpetually beleaguered construction sector, but also things like earthquake building standards, does not get the attention it deserves. Ardern said it was given to Woods to consolidate housing-related portfolios in one minister. One could wonder whether it was given to Woods to pre-emptively fix before it becomes a problem.

As for Mallard's retirement from politics, Ardern has known this was coming for some time, but she will likely not be displeased it has come now. Mallard's likely replacement, Adrian Rurawhe, seems to enrage the opposition less than Mallard. In the last sitting block, he deputised for Mallard who was overseas, and ably chaired Question Time. He was firm but fair in the chair, and was able to bring MPs into line without generating the rage Mallard seemed to.

This rage seemed to come from all sides, fed by Mallard's actions, and by the Opposition's baiting him.

His decision to move on gives all sides the opportunity to reset the clock.

Faafoi might have served for longer as minister, although Ardern might have sought to remove his Immigration and Justice portfolios (on Monday, Faafoi admitted that being a non-lawyer in the Justice portfolio had been a challenge). His retirement gives Ardern the chance to promote a fresh face to Cabinet, Priyanca Radhakrishnan, and a fresh face to the executive, Kieran McAnulty, who will be minister outside of Cabinet.

Both are deserving of their promotions. McAnulty, a former bookie, will enjoy the racing portfolio, but as a rural MP with the Associate Local Government portfolio he'll have his work cut out for him selling the Government's Three Waters reforms to rural New Zealand where it is particularly unpopular.

The most significant announcement on Monday was perhaps (as it often is with this Government) an announcement of an announcement: Ardern intends to do another reshuffle earlier next year.

If this reshuffle was tipped as "minor" that one could see Ardern shifting a number of senior or non-performing ministers off to greener pastures.

Ardern said on Monday this would be a more "comprehensive" reshuffle "with a constant review to the future", balancing experience with the need to bring on fresh talent.

Ardern would not say whether other ministers had approached her about retirement (there's a good chance at least a couple will have spoken about stepping down in 2023).

This reshuffle is where the focus should be. It's a signal that lagging ministers may find themselves turfed from Cabinet to free up new space for up-and-coming talent. John Key's mid-second term reshuffle saw the promotion of Nikki Kaye and Simon Bridges, two important talents for the party - Ardern needs to find her equivalents, and promote them.

Promotions for Kiritapu Allan, Michael Wood, Megan Woods, and Barbara Edmonds are a good start, but Ardern might want to reach further into the backbench for her next reshuffle.

Ardern has an unique problem this term. Her 2020 victory presented her with an enormous caucus of 65 MPs, 20 of whom (an entire Cabinet) would lose their seats if the most recent public poll is anything to go by.

Labour did a good job in 2020 of selecting a crop of ambitious and talented MPs, doing the work of cultivating a diverse group of future leaders National currently regrets it did not do many elections ago.

Ardern's challenge will be making sure the best of these MPs aren't swept away in 2023. This reshuffle isn't just about Ardern's possible third term - it's about achieving that most elusive and unrewarded feats: leaving sufficient talent in caucus to build a solid opposition after the Government eventually loses.

Easing the way to promotion will ensure discipline from this new crop, as well as ensuring existing Cabinet members step up in the knowledge that if they don't, a replacement is nibbling at their heels.

Here is the original post:

Thomas Coughlan: Jacinda Ardern proves she's listening, but it's the next reshuffle that matters - New Zealand Herald

Politics

11 Jun, 2022 07:37 AM4 minutes to read

Jacinda Ardern represented New Zealand well at the White House, reminding voters why she sparked Jacindamania. Photo / Joy Asico

OPINION:

Labour seems to be panicking over falling polls. They shouldn't panic. They should definitely be worried. But panicking is only making things worse.

Ten polls since January have put Labour behind National. As the year's gone on, the gap has widened. Labour is further and further behind. The PM's popularity is dropping too. Every month, fewer people tell the pollsters Jacinda Ardern is their preferred PM.

Labour's right to be worried. It's quite early in this term to be less popular than the Opposition. It's also quite early in the Government's life to be this unpopular. Labour is only halfway through the nine years we accept as standard nowadays.

The international trends aren't promising either. Voters around the world are tiring of pandemic leaders. Australia's Scott Morrison lost his election last month. The UK's Boris Johnson probably only has months left in his job after being booed by Platinum Jubilee crowds and losing the support of 40 per cent of his MPs.

But panicking won't help Labour.

So far, nothing they've done has stopped Labour's slide in the polls. If anything, hitting panic buttons has made them look cynical.

The panicking seemed to start with Labour's petrol tax reduction. It came only days after the PM refused to acknowledge there was a cost of living crisis. The ultimate move was welcome but it screamed of a party forced by weekend polling to do something it really didn't want to have to do.

Then came the Budget's $350 cost-of-living payment, clearly cobbled together in a rush. Again, welcome. But why exclude beneficiaries and pensioners? Workers know that if we're doing it tough, they're doing it tougher. Most likely they were excluded because polling told Labour they needed to show Middle New Zealand workers some special love. But, again, too cynical. Not elegant enough. How insincere is the PM if child poverty was the reason she joined politics and yet she's prepared to deny financial help to the families of New Zealand's poorest children?

Voters didn't love it. There was no traditional Budget poll boost. Both polls taken after the Budget showed another two-point drop for Labour.

Then last week, Labour launched attack ads on National's Christopher Luxon.

The ads are good. They hit Luxon's weakest point: the sense that he has no actual plan other than to win in 2023. The ads feature a picture of a smiling Luxon with the quote, "The cost of living crisis - that's how we'll win this election." Luxon said it at a recent National Party Central North Island conference.

But, coming this early in the term, the ads betray Labour's panic. And they're not very kind. Labour enjoys pretending to be the party of kindness that refuses to indulge in petty politics, yet it is the very party running nasty, personal attack ads.

Panicking like this risks doing long-term brand damage. Voters are losing track of what this party stands for. It's all over the show. If it isn't in government to fix child poverty, then what is it in government for? And if it isn't kind, then is it just like every other cynical party obsessed with staying in power?

Really, Labour's solution is to go back to basics. Return to the things voters loved about it back in 2017: a charming leader and a promise to improve life for Kiwis.

Seeing the PM perform in the US might've reminded voters what they used to like about her at the start of her leadership. We've got used to the patronising 1pm press conferences and glib responses like, 'I utterly reject the premise of that question.' But on the world stage that was gone.

She shone at Harvard. She was charming on Stephen Colbert's show. She represented us well at the White House.

Luckily for Labour, Ardern's just been in Australia and will soon be in Madrid for Nato and hopefully, voters will again be reminded of why she sparked Jacindamania. Labour needs to bottle the offshore Jacinda and bring it back here again.

And Labour needs to get back to actually trying to make this country better. It captured the zeitgeist back in 2017 when rising poverty worried us. Rising poverty still worries us. But so does rising crime, rising gang violence and rising living costs. More of dealing with that and less of the unnecessary and divisive reforms like Three Waters.

The next election is not yet lost for Labour, but if they keep panicking they will ensure they lose it.

Here is the original post:

Heather du Plessis-Allan: Labour and Jacinda Ardern's slide in the polls could be halted by being kind and caring - New Zealand Herald