Category Archives: High Seas

The cruising industry largely shut down after several high-profile Covid-19 outbreaks on ships as the illness started to spread in 2020. Now, as the number of Americans getting vaccinated continues to rise and restrictions ease up, the big oceangoing cruise lines are preparing to sail from U.S. waters again.

Celebrity Cruises' Celebrity Edge is set to depart from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, on June 26 to sail through the Caribbean with beefed-up health and safety measures, including the crew and all guests ages 16 and older fully vaccinated. Cruises from Royal Caribbean, Carnival and other lines will soon follow.

"Cruise lines have gone to great lengths to make sure there will never be a significant outbreak of Covid-19 on a ship again," says Gene Sloan, senior reporter for cruise and travel at The Points Guy.

Some have added protocols including social distancing, reduced capacity, face mask policies, temperature screenings, medical facilities designed for Covid-19 testing and more.

"Every major line also now has a plan should even one or two passengers start feeling sick with Covid-like systems," says Sloan.

Of course, nothing is foolproof: Royal Caribbean recently canceled the first sailings of its newest ship, Odyssey of the Seas, after eight crew members tested positive for Covid; six were asymptomatic and two had mild symptoms, according to NBC 6 in Miami. The ship's inaugural cruise, scheduled to leave from Fort Lauderdale on July 3, has been pushed back to July 31.

Royal Caribbean CEO Michael Bayley said in a statement that "the positive cases were identified after the vaccination was given and before they were fully effective," and that the company delayed the cruise out of an "abundance of caution."

Still, travelers are ready to hit the high seas. World cruises are selling out, the maiden voyage for the new Disney Wish, launching next year, is already booked solid, and cabins this summer are hard to come by, partly due to fewer ships in the water and reduced capacity, as well as people rebooking trips that were canceled over the past year.

"There's been a lot of pent-up demand," says Chris Gray Faust, managing editor at Cruise Critic.

Here's what travelers can expect as they start cruising again.

If you can find a cabin on a ship, it could be a great time to sail due to the current capacity reductions required by the CDC, says Lisa McGregor, owner of Passport Pleasures Luxury Travel, a Florida-based agency that specializes in cruise voyages.

"Just like when we were flying last year and the planes were empty, now you have an opportunity to sail with fewer people and have a lot more breathing room," says McGregor.

A socially distanced cruise activity on Royal Caribbean's Odyssey of the Seas

Another perk, according to Sloan: "The ports that cruises visit also are less crowded than usual, so you'll be welcomed with open arms. Many of the places cruise ships go rely heavily on tourism to survive, and they haven't had much business in more than a year. They are thrilled that cruise ships are coming back."

Even though there's reduced capacity and high demand, cruise lines are enticing people with sales and promotions. For instance, Carnival is offering 40% off sailings, Royal Caribbean is giving 60% off a second passenger, Princess is throwing in shipboard credits, and even Crystal a super luxury line with butlers is extending discounts.

But according to Anne Scully, a partner at Embark Beyond, she's seeing waitlists for popular cruises and demand extending into 2022 and 2023. "Things are pretty tight right now," she says.

Vaccination requirements vary by cruise line and port of departure, but some ships require proof of vaccination or have perks for vaccinated travelers. Cruise lines will have a way to indicate vaccinated and unvaccinated passengers, whether it's with a wristband or a mark on your seacard.

Gray Faust says that when she recently traveled on Royal Caribbean's Adventure of the Seas, which departed from the Bahamas, she had to show her original vaccination card when checking in on the ship and had to upload it online to get in and out of the Bahamas.

The vaccine card was also useful on land. "The Bahamas will not let people eat indoors unless they're vaccinated," says Faust. "So we had to show our vaccine card to eat inside a restaurant."

Cruises won't only be available to people who have been vaccinated but you'll have a much more enjoyable time if you are.

According to CDC rules, ships that have at least 95% of crew and passengers fully vaccinated can use their discretion when it comes to mask rules. Ships that don't meet those numbers can have designated areas for fully vaccinated passengers where masks and physical distancing are optional.

Royal Caribbean, for example, just released its new health and safety protocols for the July and August sailings from Miami on Freedom of the Seas. The line will designate some bars, lounges, restaurants, and events for vaccinated guests only, with no masks required. In the Main Dining Room, there will be areas for vaccinated guests to dine separately.

Unvaccinated guests will also need to pay for additional Covid testing.

"It's expected these sentiments will be mirrored for the line's other ships, particularly the ones sailing from Florida and Texas," says travel expert Pauline Frommer.

Despite early reports that the legendary cruise ship buffets would fall victim to Covid, it looks like they are here to stay. They're just going to be different, and the rules will change from line to line.

A buffet on Royal Caribbean's Odyssey of the Seas ship

Courtesy of Royal Caribbean

The big takeaway: Many buffets will no longer be self-service, and many will require reservations or reduced numbers in the dining room.

"You go through the line and you point at something and the crew will serve it to you," says Faust, of the revamped buffet she experienced on Adventure of the Seas. "They'll give you as much as you want and you still have all the choices that you're used to."

CDC guidelines require enhanced cleaning procedures, but some cruise lines are going even further.

"They've implemented all sorts of new safety protocols on ships, many behind the scenes," says Sloan. "Some lines have spent millions revamping air handling systems on ships, for instance, so that no cabin shares the same air."

A socially distanced show on Royal Caribbean's Adventure of the Seas

Courtesy Gene Sloan

Gone are the days when you can show up on a ship and wing it in the post-pandemic era, you'll need to make a lot of reservations, from shows to a spot at the gym. Faust points out that this is a way for cruise lines to discreetly do contact tracing, should something go wrong.

The cruise experience is also going high-tech to help keep passengers safe. Besides the ubiquitous QR code menus you see at many restaurants these days, you can expect contactless payment systems, virtual reservations and virtual lines, thermal temperature checks, UV sanitization and more.

While it's not pandemic-related, a lot of new ships will set sail.

Over the next 18 months, look for new ships from: Disney, the company's first launch in more than a decade; Carnival, with a groundbreaking deck-top roller coaster on theMardi Gras;Royal Caribbean, including what will be the world's largest ship; Crystal Cruises, Lindblad Expeditions, Seabourn, Viking, Regent and more.

"New ships are going to have more amenities; they're going to be more modern," says Faust. "It's like staying in a tired hotel room versus a new hotel room."

According to Bob Simpson, vice president of expedition cruising at Abercrombie & Kent, twice as many guests booked the company's small-ship expedition cruises in Q2 of this year compared with the same time in 2019.

"The very elements that define [small-ship cruising] remote destinations, small ships, outdoor adventures and a focus on learning closely align with what travelers value most right now," he says.

According to McGregor, the cruise lines want to make sure you're comfortable booking a trip and are willing to work with you if you need to make a change. "There are flexible cancellation policies throughout the industry."

But check the fine print. "Make sure you understand what the lines are requiring," says McGregor. "What's the cancellation policy? Is it cash back or a future cruise?"

Getting to this point where cruises are embarking hasn't been easy, and regulations are changing by the minute.

For instance, in October 2020, the CDC issued a "framework for conditional sailing order" saying that cruise lines could resume voyages if they follow health and safety rules, including a mandate that a cruise ship must have 98% of its crew and 95% of its passengers fully vaccinated, as well as protocols and policies for social distancing, reduced capacity, face masks, temperature screenings, Covid-19 testing and more.

But on June 18, a federal Florida judge ruled that the CDC's orders were an overreach of power and issued a preliminary injunction that prevents the CDC from enforcing its guidelines in Florida. In April, the state had sued the CDC, demanding that it allow cruise lines to immediately resume sailing from U.S. ports.

Meanwhile, a new Texas state law says that businesses can't require vaccines. It hasn't been determined if this will apply to cruise lines, but Carnival Cruise Line is still planning to start fully vaccinated voyages out of Galveston on July 3.

Sloan, who predicts that things might not return to normal until well into 2022, has witnessed the gradual resumption of cruising firsthand. In November 2020, he was on the high-profile SeaDream 1 the first Caribbean cruise since the start of the pandemic when Covid broke out on the ship. Last week, he sailed in the Caribbean on Royal Caribbean's Adventure of the Seas.

"The development of Covid-19 vaccines has been a game-changer," says Sloan. "When the outbreak occurred on SeaDream 1, nobody on the ship was vaccinated for Covid-19. They tested every passenger for Covid-19 before boarding, and every passenger was negative. But without a vaccine, there wasn't a second layer of defense to stop Covid-19 from spreading should a passenger later test positive."

And that's what happened according to Sloan a passenger who initially tested negative started feeling ill, subsequently tested positive and began spreading to others.

"Now, with so many passengers vaccinated on Adventure of the Seas, it was 94% of all passengers it is unlikely that Covid-19 would spread if a passenger fell ill," says Sloan.

Faust was surprised by how normal things already seemed on her cruise: "I played a ton of trivia. I heard live bands. I went to different restaurants. I sat by the pool," she says.

If you are deciding whether or not to sail, discuss your health risks with your doctor, stay up to date on where Americans can travel and seek guidance from the CDC, the World Health Organization and other health authorities.

According to Dr. Robert L. Quigley, senior vice president and global medical director of International SOS, the best way to protect yourself and others is to get fully vaccinated at least two weeks prior to your trip.

"On the ship itself, the CDC recommends maintaining six feet of social distance from anyone who is not traveling with you, both indoors and outdoors," says Quigley. "And when engaging in activities with other passengers, be sure to also wear a mask, avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth, and wash your hands frequently, particularly after touching any surface."

Choosing your destination wisely is also important, says Quigley. "Places with low Covid-19 infection rates and/or high vaccination rates should represent the lowest risk to you in your travels. Clearly multiple port stops, as part of the cruise, only increases your chance of exposure," says Quigley. "So do some research ahead of time."

Don't miss:5 places to head for your outdoorsy summer vacation, from a Florida beach to Utahs national parks

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Cruising is backhere's what to expect, from 'vaccinated only' zones to a revamped buffet - CNBC

By Eils Quinn

This important agreement is about responsible ocean stewardship and is necessary to protect this rapidly changing area already impacted by climate change and the threat of illegal fishing, Bernadette Jordan, Canadas Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard, said in a news release on Friday.

By working with other nations and drawing upon the traditional knowledge of the Arctic Indigenous Peoples, Canada is helping to protect the Arctics diverse and dynamic ecosystems for future generations.

The International Agreement to Prevent Unregulated High Seas Fisheries in the Central Arctic Ocean islegally binding agreement will be in effect for 16 years, after which the parities, which besides Canada and the E.U., include the United States, China, Japan, Russia, Iceland, Norway, South Korea and Denmark, will be able to renew it for five year periods.

Environmental conditions currently preclude commercial fishing in the Central Arctic Ocean, but ongoing Arctic warming means it could be possible in the future.

In 2012, more than 2,000 scientists from around the worldsigned an open letter calling for a moratorium on commercial fishing in the Arctic,saying researchers knew too little about the previously inaccessible area and the fish stocks that live there.

The goal of the agreement was to give scientists time to better understand the area, which measures approximately 2.8 million square kilometres, and for the parties to establish ajoint program of scientific research and monitoring within two years that would then work on establishing whether fish stocks that may be in the area can be sustainablyharvested.

This is the first multilateral agreement of its kind to take a legally binding, precautionary approach to protect an area from commercial fishing before such fishing has begun, said the U.S. Department of State in a news release.

This story is posted on Independent Barents Observer as part ofEye on the Arctic, a collaborative partnership between public and private circumpolar media organizations.

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Central Arctic Ocean fishing moratorium comes into effect - The Independent Barents Observer

Driftnets and Gillnets

Often described as invisible curtains of death or death nets, gillnets are walls of nets that float in the ocean, and gillnets that are not set at a particular location and drift with the current are called driftnets. The driftnet fishery is one of the worlds most destructive fisheries in terms of bycatch, or unwanted animals that are caught and discarded. Essentially, this gear entangles or kills almost everything that becomes entangled, in hopes that some of the thousands of animals caught or killed are swordfish, an expensive luxury product with dangerous levels of mercury. Only one in eight of the animals caught are swordfish.

This inherently destructive fishing gear has been banned by the United Nations, on the high seas, by a host of countries, and throughout the United States. Given the tremendous difficulty in enforcing environmental laws for such a destructive fishery, U.S. taxpayers bear the cost of managing this economically marginal fishery for almost no benefit. The end result is that the driftnet fishery is a net drag on the U.S. economy. (Read our report about the impacts of the California driftnet fishery.)

Longlines are long fishing lines that stretch up to 60 miles with thousands of hooks intended to catch swordfish and tuna. But for every single targeted swordfish, dozens more marine species are injured or killed as bycatch. Sea turtles become hooked while trying to take longline bait or become entangled while swimming through the walls of nearly invisible lines and hooks, drowning the turtles or leaving them fatally injured. Seabirds such as Laysan and black-footed albatrosses also dive for the bait and become hooked; worldwide, longline fishing has caused precipitous declines in most albatross populations. Pelagic longlines (longlines set near the surface) have been banned off the West Coast of the United States for more than four decades. Researchers estimate that 200,000 loggerhead and 50,000 leatherback sea turtles were caught worldwide by pelagic longline fishing gear in 2000 alone. The last time pelagic longlines were tested off California in 2011, more than 40 sharks were caught for every swordfish and over three quarters of the fish caught were unmarketable species. Off Hawaii, the shallow-set pelagic longline fishery was shut down in early 2019 for catching too many North Pacific loggerhead sea turtles the second consecutive year the fishery has exceeded the number of sea turtles it can legally injure or kill under the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

Aquaculture is the farming and cultivation of freshwater and marine animals and plants in controlled environments. Fish farming, or the cultivation of fish for commercial purposes in man-made tanks and other enclosures, is the primary form of aquaculture. The most common types of farmed fish are catfish, tilapia, salmon, carp, cod and trout. With the increase in overfishing and the demand on wild fisheries, the fish-farming industry has grown in order to meet the demand for fish products. Although fish farming can create jobs and reduce fishing pressure on certain wild stocks, fish farming can be harmful to the environment in many ways, including putting excess pressure on wild stocks that are used to create high protein feed pellets; amplifying and transferring disease and parasites to wild fish populations; polluting water systems with excess nutrients (fish feed & wastes), chemicals and antibiotics; compromising native gene pools if farmed fish and native species interbreed; and compromising the aesthetic beauty of coastline.

Traps and pots are used to catch crabs, lobsters, whelk, scup, black sea bass, and eels by dropping traps and pots to the bottom with bait. Because vertical lines run from the trap up to the surface buoy, traps and pots can entangle sea turtles, particularly leatherback turtles, around the flippers, neck, or carapace. If traps are heavily weighted, turtles can drown because they cannot reach the surface to breathe. Traps and pots also entangle marine mammals. Large whales, including endangered North Atlantic right whales, humpback whales, fin whales, and grey whales, are particularly susceptible to becoming entangled in trap or pot gear due to spatial overlap with fisheries and their feeding behavior. The effects of entanglement can range from no permanent injury to serious injury and death. If the traps are weighted down, entangled whales and dolphins can drown if they cannot reach the surface to breathe.

Trawling is dragging a net through the water behind a boat. The fishery targets whiting, red hake, dogfish, crab, shrimp, and flounder, but inevitably catches almost everything in their path. The risk of being captured in bottom trawls is so great for sea turtles many sea turtle species rest and forage on the bottom of the ocean that special devices known as turtle excluder devices (TEDs) were created to reduce these risks in some trawl fisheries and allow sea turtles and even small cetaceans to escape the net from an opening at the bottom. TEDs are only currently required in trawl fisheries targeting shrimp and summer flounder. In addition to sea turtles, marine mammals can become entangled by trawl gear when swimming to forage or migrate. Species that forage on or near the seafloor are at risk of being captured or entangled in netting or tow lines (also called lazy lines). Pilot whales and common dolphins in the Atlantic are particularly susceptible to being caught in bottom trawls. Capture in a bottom trawl could result in drowning from being trapped in the net and held underwater for the duration of the trawl; broken appendages or shell from the weight of the catch on top of them; injury from the drop to the deck when the net is emptied aboard the fishing vessel; stress and exhaustion from capture and release.

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Destructive Fishing Methods - Turtle Island Restoration Network

Denvil Duncan

byTax Notes StateCommentary Editor Doug Sheppard

Growing up in a rural area of eastern Jamaica in the 1980s, the culinarily inclined Denvil Duncandreamed of becoming an executive chef on a cruise ship.

Inspired by a cousin who worked in that capacity on the luxurious barges that pulled into Jamaican ports,Duncansaw a future in the planning, preparation, and presentation of delicacies while sailing the high seas.

Until he got a reality check.

That did not work out in part because studying in high school in Jamaica, this would come under home economics, and my family did not have the means to support me taking this particular subject in high school,Duncanrecalled. Because it was both theory and practical, and for the practical part, you would need to be buying all these ingredients, taking them to school, making dishes, and so on.

Little didDuncanknow that the death of this dream would lead him to study economics and take him from a modest upbringing in Guys Hill a small rural town in the parish of Saint Catherine to a prestigious academic career in the United States with stints atGeorgia State Universityand, ultimately,Indiana University.

When culinary reality set in,Duncanbegan studying economics in earnest atSt. Jago High Schoolin Spanish Town, the capital of Saint Catherine earning two additional years of study by performing well on the CXC exams.

He went on to earn a Bachelor of Science in economics and accounting from the University of the West Indies in Kingston in 2001 and a masters degree in economics from the same institution two years later. Upon attaining the latter, he started teaching at the university as an assistant lecturer in the economics department.

Around that time, one of the pivotal events that would shapeDuncans career happened when in late 2004 he metSally WallaceandRoy BahlofGeorgia State UniversitysAndrew Young School of Policy Studies, who were consulting with the Jamaican government on a tax reform package.

Toward the end of that project, bothRoyandSallygave a presentation at the University of the West Indies this was right around the time that I was applying for graduate school, and the plan was always to do a PhD in economics,Duncansaid. So I was fortunate enough to meet both of them during that seminar. Both of them encouraged me to apply toGeorgia State University, which I did, and my application was successful and I joined the PhD program in the economics department of theAndrew Young School.

Academically,Duncanwas well prepared for the transition when he made the move in 2005. Otherwise, the move from Jamaica to Atlanta was a significant adjustment for someone whose only previous trip to the United States was a two-day conference in San Antonio.

Not only is Kingston (population 1.2 million) only about a fifth of the size of metro Atlanta (population 5.8 million), but the tropical climate is a far cry from the weather in Georgia. Customs, food, and of course the locals Southern accents also took some getting used to.

Atlanta Georgia GA Downtown Skyline Aerial Panorama.

Im a native speaker of English, but the accent in the South was quite interesting, Duncansaid. It was the first time I was experiencing this, and I can remember vividly the first couple of weeks there would be a time delay between when the train operator indicated the name of the next stop and when it registered in my brain that, OK, thats what he just said. There would be a gap between when that was announced and when I could understand exactly what was going on. So it took a couple of weeks for me to adjust to the accent.

Much like his collegiate experience saw his initial interest in corporate finance and developmental economics shift to public finance, it was in graduate school that Duncandeveloped an interest in taxes, thanks in part to meeting public finance economistJames Almand labor economistKlara Sabirianova Peter who both inspired his studies in public and labor economics.

Ive just continued with the taxation side of things and understanding how tax policy influences the decisions that economic agents make however you define economic agents,Duncansaid.

Whether youre looking at individuals, corporations, policymakers, sellers, or buyers, its all very interesting when you think about how implementing a tax policy can have such important implications for revenue generation and expenditure policies. What can you fund and how will those policies end up influencing the lives of common people?

By 2010,Duncanhad completed his PhD studies including a dissertation on public finance and was ready for the job market. Describing himself as fully committed to public finance and taxation, he received offers from bothDeloitte(working on tax policy issues) andIndiana UniversitysSchool of Public and Environmental Affairs(now known as theONeill School) ultimately choosing the latter.

I ended up taking the [Indiana] job because I just felt like Id have more opportunities to work on the things that interest me,Duncansaid. And I suppose after spending three to four years working on a research project, working on research for your dissertation, it kind of becomes part of you in a sense at least it was for me. It became part of who I am, who I was at the time, so it just seemed more natural like a better fit for me to go to academia than to go to industry.

The job may have been a good fit, butDuncanonce again found that he would have to get used to the change of scenery namely, the colder, cloudier climate and the considerably smaller locale. Insufficient sunlight was particularly an issue for the Jamaican native, who found himself dealing with mild bouts of seasonal affective disorder.

For some reason, that really messed me up in my first semester to the point that Im pretty sure my neighbors thought I was a crazy guy,Duncansaid.

Because I would go to the back door of my apartment, a glass door that backs up to the other apartment, and on the few days when we had sun, I would be standing there in my boxers alone trying to absorb as much of that sunlight as I could.

Traffic was also an adjustment. After spending five years in Atlanta driving two hours to cover 6 miles, I moved to a city where I could get to pretty much anywhere I wanted to be in 10 minutes and find myself eventually becoming frustrated if I had to stop behind a car at a stoplight,Duncansaid with a chuckle. That was quite a big difference a favorable one, of course.

CHICAGO - MARCH 09: A cheerleader from the Indiana Hoosiers waves a flag with Indiana's logo on the ... [+] court against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Men's Basketball Conference Tournament March 9, 2007 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. Illinois won 58-54 in overtime. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

The most significant change, however, was settling into an academic career as an assistant professor who teaches, does research, and serves on committees.

Its quite an adjustment,Duncansaid. Thankfully, here in theONeill School, I was surrounded by fabulous people who provided important guidance to help with that adjustment. And Im forever grateful to all of those people for making the transition smoother than it otherwise probably could have been.

While many economics questions interest him, tax research that started in grad school and later at ONeill continue to occupy a significant portion ofDuncans studies particularly tax evasion and motor fuel taxes.

DuncancitedPeters exploration of Russias 2001 tax reform involving a switch from a graduated tax schedule to a linear tax schedule as a primary catalyst for his interest in taxes.

There was some work that had shown that this change in the tax rate schedule had important implications or at least important impacts on tax evasion,Duncansaid.

So there was some suggestion that by lowering the taxes and using this linear schedule, tax compliance increased. So that got me thinking: When we try to measure income inequality, we are using observable data; were measuring the income that we observe. The taxes that we apply, regardless of how progressive they are or how graduated the tax schedules are, only apply to observed income.

And so the question at the time was: Well, suppose a lot of the income is not being taxed. Does that then reduce the effectiveness of the tax system at reducing income inequality? Because the tax on total income sum of hidden and observed would be less progressive than the tax on observed income. So my dissertation focused on this.

A paper on the labor effects of the flat tax reform and a dissertation on the income inequality effects of the tax reform followed with the latter sparking his interest in tax evasion and, as a result, more papers on the subject.

One was the effect on progressivity, then another study looked at the effect of access to tax evasion on labor supply responses, so here the idea was: If the only way I can respond to tax policy is through reducing my labor supply, then my labor supply response will most likely be different than if Im also able to respond by hiding more of my income,Duncansaid. We looked at that one in a lab experiment study.

Duncans hiring at Indiana University opened a new phase of his tax studies, and one that hes perhaps most renowned for: motor fuel taxes.

AsDuncanrecounted, it all started over lunch with the dean in 2010, during which he learned that both he and his new employer were interested in looking at mileage user fees: That started another branch of research in which here the question was more about how the fuel economy of motor vehicles has been increasing over time mostly in response to regulation. And as vehicles become more fuel efficient, it means that theres less gasoline being consumed, which means that less revenue is collected from the fuel tax which means that theres less revenue available to finance roads, bridges, and so on. So we were starting to think about the implication of these policies on the ability to maintain and build new roads and then what might some alternative policies be?

This branch of research, according toDuncan, has been the most rewarding because its allowed him to participate in actual policy discussions as opposed to just publishing papers.

In 2015, for example, he andJohn Graham, then dean of theONeill School, were invited to join a consortium of firms that were hired by the Indiana government where the objective was to analyze the revenue implications for the fuel tax, and also to discuss or propose options that will allow the state to address this concern.

One of the things that they wanted us to do, explicitly, was to look at the mileageuser fee,Duncansaid. So that was a very fulfilling opportunity because I was able to work with policymakers and put together this document and present it to theDepartment of Transportation. Thats an opportunity to feel like your work actually has some impact as opposed to just writing a paper and publishing it, and it sits in a journal somewhere. This is a case in which that work was actually being used in the policymaking process.

BERLIN - MARCH 23: A gasoline station attendant pumps diesel into a car at a filling station on ... [+] March 23, 2010 in Berlin, Germany. German President Horst Koehler said on Sunday higher petrol prices is the surest means to convince traditionally car-loving Germans to seek more environmentally-friendly alternatives, and his comment has already sparked the ire of the automobile lobby. (Photo Illustration by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

That served as a good prequel to one ofDuncans subsequent excursions, in which he was approached in 2018 by the International Fuel Tax Agreement (IFTA), which wanted to implement a strategic plan to explore the same questions thatDuncanhad previously explored the idea that the fuel tax is potentially under threat because of increased fuel economy, automation of vehicles, and all of these changes that are happening.

They wanted to do a careful analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, challenges and identify some goals and strategies for achieving those goals, Duncan recalled. And so they reached out to me, and I partnered with one of my colleagues, Dr.Sean Nicholson-Crotty, and both of us worked with them over a period of six to seven months, maybe even longer, working on developing that strategic plan and delivering that plan to the board ofIFTA.

The research concluded in 2019 leaving both academics with a feeling of satisfaction, according toDuncan: That was another fulfilling experience, because again, its not publishing the paper in lets sayThe National Tax Journal,Public Budgeting & Finance, orPublic Administration Review which are some of the places weve published our work on mileage user fees, but this was working directly with the policymakers to see, Well, how should we move forward in this space?

If you publish the paper,Duncanadded, your colleagues may read them, and that brings joy if people are reading and recognizing your work, thats also fulfilling. But speaking personally, its more fulfilling to translate that work for the policymakers who are actually going to implement it and effect change in the way things are done.

Given all the misconceptions and apprehensions about replacing fuel taxes with mileage user fees, the work ofDuncanand other proponents is far from done.

The fee which would most likely require an electronic device in vehicles to be effective has raised concerns regarding privacy abuses by the government and hackers, the cost of implementation, and equity, which is particularly relevant to the perennial issue of the costs for rural versus urban drivers.

People have raised this as a concern, but weve argued over the range of papers that weve written that these are not insurmountable challenges,Duncansaid.

If you take even the equity argument, for example: Yes, if you live in a rural area, youre driving longer distances, and you would therefore have a higher mileage tax bill on average. But it is also the case now that if you live in a rural area driving longer distances, youre consuming more fuel and therefore, on average, have a higher gasoline tax bill.

Duncanhas responses to the other concerns as well that go beyond the scope of this article, but mainly, hes certain of one thing: Mileage user fees are a viable replacement for fuel taxes.

In my opinion, it seems so clear cut, he said. Like if you look at just the landscape of the fuel tax: To the extent you want to finance roads and bridges with a benefit-based type of financial instrument, the fuel tax doesnt seem like its going to survive long term. Surely, the average age of a vehicle is anywhere from maybe 15 to 16 years, so its not like its going to disappear tomorrow. But the trajectory is not a good one, so you really have to think about options to replace it and the mileage tax seems like an obvious one.

If indeed his stance on the fuel tax puts him at odds with much of the public for the time being, it wouldnt be the first timeDuncanhas had to overcome long odds: Coming from Jamaica to academia isnt a common story, and brings diversity to a field (taxes) thats not necessarily known for it.

That concern is not unique to the tax side of the profession,Duncansaid. I can only speak for the economics profession, personally; Im not speaking on behalf of the profession just my observations of the profession. I would say that the general concern is: Is the representation in the profession consistent with representation of the general population? And of course, its not, and everyone is trying to figure out how can we improve representation across various dimensions whether race, ethnicity, gender, and so on. So I would say there is still work to be done, and I know there are lots of individuals and organizations that are taking this seriously and trying to implement policies that would move us in the direction of a greater level of representation.

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The Would-Be Chef Who Found Tax And Economics - Forbes

Summer just started, but it's never too early to start looking ahead. Before you know it, it'll be Halloween and then Christmas will be just around the corner. Of course, you could go to parties with friends or get together with your family now that it's safe to do so.Or you could plan an epic Disney Cruise vacation.

Disney Cruise Line announced its Halloween and Christmas cruise lineup for 2022. After taking an almost 15-month hiatus from sailing due to the coronavirus pandemic, cruises are back in full swing and the demand is higher than ever.

The family-friendly cruise line is celebrating "Halloween on the High Seas" with vacation options available from mid-September through October 2022. Guests are encouraged to dress for Mickey's Mouse-querade, can partake inan interactive Tim Burton movie experience, and enjoy festive food and drinks throughout their trip. There will also be a "ghostly ship takeover" and a magical Pumpkin Tree because it wouldn't be Halloween without a little spooky fun.

In early November, Disney Cruise Line will switch gears through December for "Very Merrytime Cruises" featuring holiday decor, Disney characters dressed in holiday-themed outfits, and a visit from Santa.

Disney plans to break out a brand-new ship for the holiday season called the Disney Wish, according to Travel + Leisure. The vessel will sail from Port Canaveral, Florida, on three-and-four-night trips. All cruises will sail to the Bahamas and stop at Disney's private island, Castaway Cay.

Disney received the green light from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to start test cruises earlier this month, per USA Today. It's unclear whether vaccinations will be required for passengers on US sailings, though all passengers 18 or older are required to be fully vaccinated for UK sailings.

At the beginning of the month, the CDC announced its updated mask policy for cruises, recommending that unvaccinated passengers wear masks in all indoor areas and places where distance cannot be maintained. The CDC also noted that cruise ships where at least 95% of passengers and crew are vaccinated "may advise passengers and crew that they do not have to wear a mask or maintain physical distance in any areas."

Thrillist reached out to Disney Cruise Line for more information but did not immediately hear back.

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Disney Cruise Line Just Dropped its Halloween and Christmas Cruise Lineup - Thrillist

A body has been found in the multiagency search for a diver reported missing from the Scapa Flow in Orkney.

Police Scotland said the alarm was raised at about 5.35pm on Sunday with searches involving coastguard teams over sea and the air.

Earlier, on Monday, the coastguard said the search had been stood down, with police later confirming a body had been recovered.

Orkney police Inspector David Hall said: Following searches in the Scapa Flow area, a body has been recovered this afternoon which is believed to be of a diver reported missing on Sunday June 27.

Our thoughts are with his family and friends at this difficult time.

Scapa Flow was an important Royal Navy base during the World Wars and was the scene of the scuttling of the German High Seas Fleet in 1919.

The sunken German ships are a well-known and popular diving spot.

A spokeswoman for the coastguard previously said: At 2.50pm yesterday, HM Coastguard was alerted to an overdue diver at Scapa Flow.

Coastguard Rescue Teams from Kirkwall and Stromness, lifeboats from Longhope, Stromness and Hoy and the search and rescue helicopter from Sumburgh carried out an extensive search.

The search was stood down at 2am today pending further information.

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Body recovered from Orkney's Scapa Flow 'believed to that of missing diver' - HeraldScotland

Captain Krishnan Kanthavel watched the sun rise over the Red Sea through a dusty haze. Winds of more than 40 mph, whipping off the Egyptian desert, had turned the sky an anemic yellow. From his viewpoint on the bridge, it was just possible to see the dark outlines of the 19 other vessels anchored in Suez Bay, waiting for their turn to enter the narrow channel snaking inland toward the Mediterranean.

Kanthavels container vessel was scheduled to be the 13th ship traveling north through the Suez Canal on March 23, 2021. His was one of the largest in the queue. It was also one of the newest and most valuable, only a few years out of the shipyard. Ever Given, the name painted in block letters on its stern, stood out in crisp white against the forest-green hull. Soon after daybreak, a small craft approached, carrying the local pilots whod guide the ship during its 12-hour journey between the seas.

Photo: Digital Globe/Scapeware3D/Getty Images

Transiting the Suez Canal is sometimes nerve-racking. The channel saves a three-week detour around Africa, but its narrow, about 200 meters (656 feet) wide in parts, and just 24 meters deep. Modern ships, by contrast, are massive and getting bigger. The Ever Given is 400 meters from bow to stern and nearly 60 meters acrossmost of the width of a Manhattan city block, and almost as long as the Empire State Building is high. En route from Malaysia to the Netherlands, it was loaded with about 17,600 brightly colored containers. Its keel would be only a few meters from the canal bottom. That didnt leave much room for error.

After climbing aboard, the two Egyptian pilots were led up to the bridge to meet the captain, officers, and helmsmen, all of them Indian, like the rest of the crew. According to documents filed weeks later in an Egyptian court, there was a dispute at some point about whether the ship should enter the canal at all, given the bad weathera debate that may have been hampered by the fact that English was neither sides first language. At least four nearby ports had already closed because of the storm, and a day earlier the captain of a natural gas carrier sailing from Qatar had decided it was too gusty to traverse Suez safely.

Like airplanes, modern ships carry voyage data recorders, or VDRs, black-box devices that capture conversations on the bridge. The full recording of what transpired on the Ever Givens bridge hasnt been released by the Egyptian government, so it isnt clear exactly what the pilots and crew said about the conditions. But the commercial pressures on Captain Kanthavel, an experienced mariner from Tamil Nadu, in Indias far south, would have been enormous. His ship was carrying roughly $1 billion worth of cargo, including Ikea furniture, Nike sneakers, Lenovo laptops, and 100 containers of an unidentified flammable liquid.

Several other corporate entities also had an interest in getting the Ever Givens containers speedily to Europe. Among them was its owner, Shoei Kisen Kaisha Ltd., a shipping concern controlled by a wealthy Japanese family, and Evergreen Group, a Taiwanese conglomerate that operated it under a long-term charter. The crew, meanwhile, worked for Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, a German company that supplies sailors for commercial vessels and oversees their operations. Every days delay would add tens of thousands of dollars in costs, if not more.

Veteran captains say they often dont have much choice about sailing into Suez in poor conditions. Do it, or well find someone else who will, theyre sometimes told. But modern ships have radar and electronic sensors that technically allow the canal to be navigated even in zero visibility. And Kanthavel, whom a former colleague describes as a calm, confident officer, had ample experience navigating Suez.

From the bridge, Kanthavel could see about a half-mile ahead. Other vessels in the northbound convoy were on the move, gliding past the tall cranes at the canals mouth. The captain could still have refused to proceed, but with an all-clear from the agency that manages the waterway, and with everyone eager to get going, he carried on. The lead Egyptian pilot leaned into his radio and had a brief conversation in Arabic between bursts of static. Then he instructed the bridge crew to power forward. As the scattered settlements around the port gave way to bare desert, the Ever Given cruised past a large sign that read, Welcome to Egypt.

The Ever Given on March 24.

Photo: Suez Canal Head Office/Xinhua/Zuma Press

Suez pilots are employed by the Suez Canal Authority, which has operated the route since the Egyptian government took control of it in 1956. Often former naval officers, the pilots dont physically steer transiting ships themselves. Their job is to give instructions to captains and helmsmen, communicate with the rest of the convoy and the SCA control tower, and ensure that the vessels get through safely, which they mostly do.

For some visitors, though, encounters with the SCA can be a source of stress. Although the captain remains technically in charge, he or she surrenders a good deal of control to strangers in uniform, whose professionalism and competence vary. In addition to pilots, SCA electricians, mooring specialists, and health inspectors may also come on board. Each one requires paperwork, food, space, and supervision. They may also demand cartons of cigarettes, a problem that prompted a maritime anti-corruption group in 2015 to create a Say No campaign, urging shipping lines to refuse to hand any over. (The SCA has in the past denied such allegations.)

Chris Gillard sailed the canal about once a month from 2008 through 2019 as an officer with his former employer, Danish shipping giant A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S. Between the pilots and the navigation challenges, he came to dread the crossing. Id rather have a colonoscopy than go through the Suez, he said in an interview. The situation has improved in recent years, but the dynamic can still be fraught.

A few miles into the Ever Givens transit, the ship began to veer alarmingly from port to starboard and back again. Its blocky shape may have been acting as a gigantic sail, buffeted by the wind. In response, according to evidence submitted in legal proceedings, the lead SCA pilot began barking instructions at the Indian helmsman. The pilot shouted to steer hard right, then hard left. The Ever Givens vast hull took so long to respond that by the time it began to move, he needed to correct course again. When the second pilot objected, the two argued. They may have exchanged insults in Arabic. (The SCA hasnt released the pilots names and denies they were at fault for what followed.)

The lead pilot then gave a new order: Full ahead. That would take the Ever Givens speed to 13 knots, or 15 mph, significantly faster than the canals recommended speed limit of about 8 knots. The second pilot tried to cancel the order, and more angry words were exchanged. Kanthavel intervened, and the lead pilot responded by threatening to leave the vessel, according to the court evidence.

The increase in power should have provided the Ever Given with more stability in the face of the gale, but it also brought a new factor into play. Bernoullis principle, named for an 18th century Swiss mathematician, states that a fluids pressure goes down when its speed goes up. The hundreds of thousands of tons of canal water the ship was displacing had to squeeze through the narrow gap between its hull and the nearest shore. As the water rushed through, the pressure would have decreased, sucking the Ever Given closer to the bank. The faster it went, the greater the pull. Speeding up to a certain point is effective, then it becomes countereffective, Gillard said. You wont be steering a straight line no matter what you do.

Suddenly, it became clear the Ever Given was going to crash. Although no footage of the incident has been made public, the final few seconds would have unfolded with the horrible slowness of a collapsing buildinga gigantic object surrendering to invisible forces. According to a person familiar with the VDR audio, Captain Kanthavel reacted as anyone might in the same situation. Shit! he screamed.

The Suez Canal circa 1896.

Photo: Zangaki Brothers

Consider every item within 10 feet of you right now. Shoes, furniture, toys, pens, phones, computersif you live in Europe or North America, theres a very good chance they sailed through the Suez Canal. The canal is the essential link between East and West, a dichotomy that lodged in the popular imagination centuries ago in part because of the difficulty in crossing from one to the other. Before it existed, mariners had to brave pirates and violent storms by sailing around the Cape of Good Hope, while merchants traveling on land risked robbery or worse as they crossed the desert.

The idea of a direct route across the Suez isthmus was dismissed as a fantasy until the 19th century, when it was taken up by a cross-dressing French wine merchant named Barthlemy-Prosper Enfantin. A utopian socialist and early advocate of gender equality, Enfantin believed the East had a female essence, while the West was intrinsically male. Egypt, and specifically Suez, could be their nuptial bed, the site of a reconciliation between the worlds great cultures.

Enfantins ideas reached Ferdinand de Lesseps, a French diplomat serving in Cairo, who rallied to the cause. Eventually, Lesseps founded an entity called the Suez Canal Company and persuaded Egyptian ruler Said Pasha and Emperor Napoleon III of France to support the project. The government of Egypt bought 44% of the shares, with French retail investors acquiring the bulk of the rest. Tens of thousands of Egyptian peasants began digging out the channel by hand, later assisted by machines imported from Europe.

In 1869, the 120-mile miracle in the desert was complete. It soon became a vital commercial artery, particularly for European powers expanding their colonial empires in Asia. Egyptians saw few of the benefits. The canals construction proved financially ruinous for the country, and it was forced to sell its shares to the British government to satisfy creditors. Then, in 1882, Britain used a nationalist uprising as a pretext to send more than 30,000 troops into Egypt, turning it into a client state and seizing the canal. Suez had become an asset the European powers couldnt afford to lose.

Anger at this act of imperial aggression festered, and in 1956 the Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser nationalized the waterway. An Anglo-French attempt to take it back with support from Israel was a humiliating failure, collapsing after President Dwight Eisenhower made it clear that the U.S. wouldnt tolerate the recolonization of a chunk of the Middle East. From then on, the canal would remain in Egyptian hands. In 2015, President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi opened an $8.5 billion expansion, increasing capacity and cutting transit times. Billboards in Cairo declared that it was Egypts gift to the world.

Today 19,000 vessels a year pass through the canal, loaded with more than a billion tons of goods. With tolls that can run as high as $1 million for the largest ships, the SCA brings Egypt about $5 billion annually. The countrys government is understandably proud of its central role in maritime trade. Its also touchy about any suggestion that its not an ideal custodian for one of the world economys most critical assets.

Id rather have a colonoscopy than go through the Suez

Early on March 23, Captain Mohamed Elsayed Hassanin was just starting his shift in the control tower atop the SCAs headquarters in Ismailia, about 50 miles north of the Ever Givens position. As pilots radioed in to say that ship No.13 in the northbound convoy had run aground, the results, captured by the CCTV cameras that line the waterway, were being displayed on a flickering monitor in front of Elsayeds command post. No one in the control tower had ever seen anything like it: The vessel was wedged diagonally across the channel. When the camera zoomed in, Elsayed could see the forlorn figure of Kanthavel standing on the Ever Givens bridge.

A former navy captain, Elsayed is a stern man who takes his job as chief pilot seriously. Hed been promoted to the position two years earlier, after almost 40 years of maritime experience and a decade at the SCA. He has smooth features, with deep lines around his eyes, and wears a pressed white uniform with black and gold epaulettes, spotless down to his white shoes.

Elsayed oversees four convoys daily, two from the south and two from the north. Part of his job is nautical choreography. More than half of the canal is too narrow for large ships to safely pass each other. Thats why vessels travel in convoys, waiting in one of the lakes or side channels for the group going the other way to pass.

Elsayed in the SCA control room.

It was clear, Elsayed said in an interview, that the Ever Given was stuck in one of the worst possible spots: a one-way section of the canal. He decided to take a look for himself. After a short car trip, he boarded a small boat and pulled up to the cargo ship. Even for someone accustomed to huge merchant vessels, the Ever Givens scale was striking. It reminded Elsayed of a metal mountain, rising from the opalescent channel.

Below the waterline, the bulbous bow had been driven like a dagger deep into the rocks and coarse sand. Somehow, the back end had also run aground, lodging in the opposite bank and leaving the ship at a 45-degree angle to the shore. Nothing could pass. The force of the impact had also pushed the bow upward by six meters. Container ships arent designed to sit on an angle, and with the Ever Givens weight distribution thrown off and only a few meters of water supporting the vessels middle section, Elsayed thought there was a real possibility it would break in half.

A couple of SCA tugboats were already at the scene, and divers were in the water checking for hull damage. Elsayed scaled a ladder to meet Kanthavel on the bridge. The captain was visibly shaken, and Elsayed tried to keep him calm. Everything will be solved, inshallah, he said.

He asked Kanthavel about the Ever Givens hull, the weight of its cargo, and the amount of water in its ballast tanks. If they could lighten its load, the extra buoyancy might help lift it off the bank. Elsayed did some quick mental arithmetic. The ratio of tonnage to flotation was 201 tons for each centimeter. Getting the vessel one meter out of the water would require removing more than 20,000 tons of cargoan enormous undertaking even if the SCA could find a crane tall enough to reach containers piled more than 50 meters above the surface.

The two tugs attached cables to the Ever Given and began trying to drag it free, their engines churning the water into spirals. The ship didnt budge. Elsayed and his boss, SCA Chairman Osama Rabie, improvised a plan: They would run 12-hour shifts, alternating between excavators on shore removing the rocky soil around the bow and stern, and tugboats pulling with as much horsepower as possible. The diggers would gouge downward during low tide. The tugs would exploit the additional buoyancy provided by high tide to tow. To help the excavators, Elsayed summoned two SCA dredgers, floating barges with spinning metal teeth that could be lowered into the water to chew up the canal bed. They were due to arrive later that day.

First on the scene was a single yellow digger, sent by a contractor working nearby. The driver approached nervously and started scraping scoopfuls of rocky earth from around the bow. He was terrified, according to an interview he later gave with Insider, that the metal behemoth looming over him would topple or shift, crushing him. The comical size mismatch was captured by the SCAs communications team, which had a photographer on hand to show the world the authority was doing all it could to get the canal open again. The image of the lonely excavator went viral, and for the first time in its history, Suez was both a vital commercial passage and a meme.

After giving their account of the accident to Elsayed, the two SCA pilots whod been on the Ever Givens bridge prepared to disembark. As they did so they continued to bicker, according to lawsuit evidence thats disputed by the SCA. These vessels are not supposed to enter, the lead pilot said.

Why did you let it enter? his colleague responded.

An excavator attempts to free the Ever Givens bow.

Photo: Suez Canal Head Office/dpa/Zuma Press

Keith Svendsen was driving to work when his mobile phone rang. One of his colleagues from APM Terminals, a Netherlands-based operator of container ports, was on the line with news. Details were scant, but there was some kind of trouble in Suez. Staff at Maersk, APMTs parent company, were rushing to find out more.

If shipping conglomerates like Evergreen Group keep ocean trade moving, APMT provides a link between land and sea, loading and unloading about 32,000 ships a year in Los Angeles, Mumbai, Gothenburg, and some 70 other locations, day and night, in an unceasing ballet of cranes and metal boxes. It also co-owns Tanjung Pelepas, the Malaysian port that was the Ever Givens last stop before Suez.

As Svendsen, a plain-spoken Dane who serves as APMTs chief operating officer, arrived at his office in The Hague, he wasnt overly concerned. Mishaps in Suez werent uncommon and could usually be resolved within hours. In three decades as a seafarer and shipping executive, hed dealt with more than a few close calls, some in that very waterway. They usually worked themselves out.

Svendsen

Photo: APMT

It was soon apparent to Svendsen, though, that the Ever Givens accident was well out of the ordinary and would have serious repercussions. Like car manufacturing and supermarket distribution, modern cargo shipping is a just-in-time business, built around the expectation that goods will arrive precisely when needed. Before containers were widely adopted in the 1970s, it could take a week or more to empty a large ship and then refill it. Today, vessels carrying 10,000 containers or more might spend just hours in a given port, unloaded by automated cranes guided by sophisticated planning algorithms. Its an efficient model, saving on storage and inventory, but a fragile one. It takes only a single problem in the supply chain for everything to seize up.

A prolonged closure of Suez risked a cascade of delays that would be felt in day-to-day commerce by millions of people, if not billions, for months. A vessel missing its scheduled arrival at APMTs terminal in New Jersey wouldnt just create a problem for the American companies waiting for its cargo. It would also mean a pileup of all the containers the ship was supposed to pick up for export. And, half a world away, factories in China or Malaysia counting on the same vessel to pick up their goods weeks later would need to find alternative optionswhich, given the disruption, might not exist.

APMT convened a crisis management team and started planning for various scenarios. What would happen to its ports if the canal was closed for 24 hours? Three days? Two weeks? Each increment of delay meant more vessels and cargo waiting to get through, unless they took a detour of thousands of nautical miles.

Our job was to find out when wed have a breaking point situation, Svendsen said in an interview. Two weeks would be a disaster for world trade, the team concluded. Anything less than a week would be manageable, if challenging. Svendsen could only hope that someone would pull the Ever Given clear before then.

As the ship drew away from the bank, one of the ropes binding the bow to the shore snapped. Then another. Then another

Soon after the grounding, an engineer on a Maersk ship directly behind the Ever Given in the northbound convoy took a striking photograph of the vessel, side-on in the channel against the apocalyptic backdrop of a sandstorm. Looks like we might be here for a little bit, she wrote, posting the image on Instagram.

It took about 24 hours for the SCA to release its first public statement, in which it said the Ever Given had lost control in bad weather. Evergreen, which declined to make any of its executives available for an interview, blamed a suspected sudden strong wind, while one local maritime agent cited a blackout. By the end of the day on March 24, 185 vessels were anchored nearby waiting to pass, carrying electronics, cement, water, millions of barrels of oil, and several thousand head of livestock. A shipping journal estimated that $10 billion worth of marine traffic per day was piling up.

Help was on its way from Europe: A team from SMIT Salvage, part of the Dutch marine conglomerate Royal Boskalis Westminster NV, had been hired by the Ever Givens owners in Japan. Salvors are like a 24/7 rescue service for the high seas. When a cruise liner starts to sink or an oil tanker is set alight, salvage crews rush to the scene to recover people, cargo, and equipment. Its one of the worlds most adrenaline-soaked professions, and salvors employ all manner of Thunderbirds-style vehicles to get the job done, including helicopters and high-powered tugs with names like Sea Stallion and Nordic Giant. The business can be extremely lucrative. Under standard terms, crews receive a percentage of the value of whatever they rescue, potentially earning tens of millions of dollars. Fail, and they may get nothing.

After the SMIT team arrived on March 25, its members surveyed the Ever Given and then met Elsayed and his SCA colleagues on board. SMIT was there to advise, not take over, because Suez salvage operations fall under the SCAs jurisdiction. But the Dutch experts had a plan. If towing didnt work, they told Elsayed over the course of several meetings, it would be critical to lighten the ship. Theyd already located a crane that was tall enough to reach the Ever Givens deck and capable of removing five containers an hour, load by painstaking load, until the vessel was 10,000 tons lighter. The crane could be there the following week. They just needed to charter a vessel to sail it in.

The Ever Given, as seen from space on March 25.

Photo: Cnes 2021, Distribution Airbus DS

Where are you going to put the containers? Elsayed asked. A SMIT executive said theyd be offloaded to a smaller boat, which would go to a lake a few miles up the canal, to be transferred by yet another crane to yet another boat. Elsayed thought that would take at least three months. We dont have time, he said. SMIT argued it was prudent to have a backup option. Eventually everyone agreed that they should keep dredging and towing until the giant crane arrived. If there was no movement by then, they would start taking boxes off.

SMIT put out a call to its partners and contractors, seeking the most powerful tugs they could find. The available ones included a sizable Italian-owned boat, the Carlo Magno, that was already en route to Egypt from the Red Sea, a few days away. The Alp Guard, a Dutch behemoth with 280 tons of pulling power, was also days out.

Elsayed was now living on the Ever Given. He and Rabie, who was staying on a dredger, spent much of their time on the radio, trying to keep their crews spirits up. None of the SCAs sailors, engineers, and drivers were getting much sleep in the army tents that had been erected alongside the canal. After an exhausting day spent attaching cables, squeezing extra turns of power out of engines, or operating excavators, they might discover that the Ever Given had shifted only a meter. This is a good sign, Elsayed would tell them. It moved. Tomorrow it will be more.

The Suez traffic jam on March 26.

Source: NASA

Privately, he was terrified someone would get hurt. Elsayed also had a son working on one of the tugs. During the tug shifts, as many as five of the SCAs smaller craft would line up with their noses pushing against the Ever Givens side, trying to lever out the bow, while others pulled using cables. If the ship was suddenly dislodged, the smaller boats would be scattered like toys, risking a fatal accident. Then there was the risk that the Ever Givens bow could swing sideways and collide with the opposite bank, going straight from one grounding to another. Elsayed asked the ships crew to run four 100-meter ropes out to land, where they could be anchored to stop the bow from moving out too far if it suddenly came free. He hoped that would be enough.

The Alp Guard roared into view on Sunday, March 28, almost six days after the Ever Given got stuck. There was a supermoon that night, a full moon unusually close to Earth, and its gravity would pull the Red Seas tide to the highest it had been, or would be, for weeks. If the salvage crews were going to free the Ever Given without unloading it, this was the moment.

Then Elsayed proposed a novel idea: Instead of using the tugs only at high tide, they could also pull as the tide went out, hoping the current would help bring the Ever Given clear. It wasnt quite established salvage wisdom, which favors high water over tidal movement, but having battled the current for days, Elsayed and his team thought it might work.

The waters peaked at midnight. In the early hours of March 29, crewmen ran a cable from the ship to the Alp Guard. The tug was so powerful that they needed to coil the cable around four metal bollards set in the Ever Givens hull to prevent the anchor points from fracturing under the strain. Then the Alp Guard began to pull.

As dawn broke with the tide low, some of the tug captains realized they were no longer treading water. They were moving, very slowly. The back end of the Ever Given was drifting silently, inch by inch, away from the bank. The bow remained anchored in the sand, but the ship was only half stuck.

The second large tug, the Carlo Magno, arrived soon after and joined the Alp Guard in pulling from the rear. For hours, both tugs went flat out, whipping the water into white froth. But they were now working against the tide. They quit at lunchtime, having made no visible progress.

Then the SMIT team suggested the Ever Given take on 2,000 tons of ballast water in its stern, to lift its bow a few extra inches out of the silt. At about 2 p.m., Elsayed ordered all the tugs to try again. The tide had turned, becoming their ally. As hed suspected, it was just enough.

A tug during the refloating operation.

Photographer: Samuel Mohsen/dpa/Zuma Press

Elsayed was on the Ever Givens bridge with Captain Kanthavel when the bow began to move, slowly at first, then all at once. The chief pilot could hear his tug captains yelling over the radio. As the ship drew away from the bank, one of the ropes binding the bow to the shore snapped, making a sound like a rifle shot. Then another. Then another. But the final one held, just long enough to stop the Ever Given from swinging across the channel. Elsayed asked Kanthavel to power up the engines and get the ship on a steady course so it could safely pass the salvage vessels ahead.

At the sight of the Ever Given moving under its own steam, the tug crews cheered and sounded their horns. On the bridge, the Indian officers whooped and embraced the SMIT salvors. Rabie called President Sisi to give him the good news.

Elsayed allowed himself the briefest moment of celebration. Al-Hamdulillah, he murmured: All praise be to God. He posed reluctantly for some photographs, then got back to work. More than 400 ships were waiting to enter the canal.

The rest of the world swiftly lost interest in Suez once the Ever Given was freed. But for Elsayed and his pilots, the crisis was far from over. A significant proportion of international trade was riding on getting the backlogged vessels cleared. The SCA team worked day and night to move them through, transiting as many as 80 ships daily. Elsayed knew that having tired, overworked pilots on the job increased the risk of accidents, but felt he had little choice. A few days after the Ever Given was freed, an SCA boat sank and an employee died, illustrating the dangers of working in a marine chokepoint under severe strain.

Clearing the queue took six days. Afterward, Elsayed returned to his home in Alexandria to see his family, his first break in more than two weeks.

In The Hague, Svendsen, the APM Terminals executive, had been preparing for a huge wave of cargo, trying to boost capacity any way he could. The company had agreed with unions to extend working hours, deferred maintenance that would take cranes out of action, and cleared storage space to accommodate thousands of extra containers. Rushing cargo through would reduce APMTs already slim margin for error. Its like a Tetris game where theres no blank space, Svendsen said.

The biggest problem emerged in Valencia, in southern Spain. The ports storage areas were already mostly full, piled with Spanish goods awaiting shipment. As containers came in, the volume of boxes became unmanageable. For a time, APMT had to activate a last-resort option, telling customers it could take in outgoing wares only just before they were scheduled to be loaded onto a ship. It would require a month of 24/7 shifts to bring the Valencia terminal back toward normal.

None of this received much attention in the international press. On social media, people bemoaned the loss of a welcome distraction from Covid-19. #PutItBack trended on Twitter. For most, the Suez Canal went back to being a largely invisible fulcrum of global trade. Within the shipping industry, though, after the euphoria of the rescue operation faded, the conversation turned to blame. Who was at fault for the crash? And who would pay for the physical and economic damage?

Captain Kanthavel and his crew were still on board the Ever Given, waiting for permission from Egyptian authorities to leave. The ship was anchored in the Great Bitter Lakea desert salt bed for most of its history, until the canals flow transformed it into a waiting area for marine traffic. Although Kanthavel hadnt spoken publicly, he had good reason to be anxious. After a major maritime accident, captains can expect a forensic examination of their actions. (Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, the company that provided the Ever Givens crew, said in a statement about Kanthavel that it maintains absolute confidence in our Master, who has acted with professionalism and diligence throughout this period.)

On April 13, the SCA secured an Egyptian court order to arrest, or seize, the Ever Given. The agency said it was seeking almost $1 billion from the ships owner, Shoei Kisen Kaisha, which declined to comment for this article. In legal filings, the SCA argued that it had led a unique and unprecedented operation to free the ship and should be paid for its efforts, placing them at $272 million in expenses, a salvage bonus of $300 million, and a further $344 million in damages, including moral losses. Until the debt was cleared, the Ever Given, its cargo, and its crew wouldnt be going anywhere.

On May 22, lawyers for the SCA and Shoei Kisen Kaisha gathered for a hearing in a crowded courtroom in Ismailia. A great deal was at stake, for a great number of parties. If the SCAs nearly $1 billion claim was ever paid, the liability would likely fall not to the Japanese company but to a collection of marine insurance conglomerates all over the world. Each would want a say in any settlement. There were also more than 17,000 cargo containers still stuck in the Great Bitter Lake. Nike and Lenovo had sent lawyers to Ismailia to monitor the proceedings.

That morning, the courthouse was abuzz with news that the Ever Givens owner had brought in a prominent attorney from Alexandria, Ashraf El Swefy, to stand up to the SCAs demands. The hearing got under way at 11 a.m. About a dozen lawyers jostled around a lectern in front of four judges, standing shoulder to shoulder as if waiting for a halftime pep talk. They took turns speaking, each following the same theatrical routine. First, an attorney would come up, state his name, and set out his clients case, building to a crescendo that involved shouting and waving his hands. Then everyone would talk at once, until the next lawyer found his way to the lectern and the process restarted.

The SCAs lawyer argued that the authority had saved the Ever Given almost singlehandedly. A billion dollars wasnt so much to ask. If it were not for the refloating operation, we could have witnessed a catastrophe, he said in Arabic. The call to prayer drifted in through an open window as he spoke.

Soon it was El Swefys turn. He was much older than the rest, hunched and with slightly trembling hands. Although the other attorneys towered over him, he had obvious gravitas.

No one could doubt the heroism of the SCA, El Swefy said slowly. But his praise was the prelude to a surprise attack. He explained that Shoei Kisen Kaisha had tried and failed to negotiate a settlement with the agency. In light of the SCAs resistance, he said, he had no choice but to submit recordings from the Ever Givens voyage data recorder into evidence. What they revealed was chaos, he said. Enter, no dont enter, the wind is high, the wind isnt high. The pilots got into an argument and were calling each other names, in an exchange so heated one of them threatened to leave the ship, according to El Swefy. It was the first time anyone had publicly suggested the SCAs actions might have contributed to the accident.

El Swefy professed, as a proud Egyptian, to be making this argument reluctantly. I didnt want to say this, and Im ashamed to say it, he said. This waterway belongs to all of us.

When he went outside afterward, reporters crowded him. He unhooked his face mask and patiently lit a cigarette with one hand, talking into a cellphone with the other. He declined to comment when approached by Bloomberg Businessweek. I have a principle, he said in English. All my statements are made in front of the court. Would the full transcript of the VDR audio be made public? Not by me, he replied.

In the end, the judges kicked the case to another court. The SCA has reduced its claim to about $550 million, and as this story went to press, the Ever Givens insurers announced theyd reached an agreement in principle to resolve the dispute, without disclosing its terms. Even if that deal is finalized, a protracted legal battle may still take place beyond Egypt. In Londons admiralty courts, where most big-money marine cases are decided, Shoei Kisen Kaisha has filed an application to limit its maximum liability from any lawsuits. The filing lists 16 entities that might seek damages, most of them the owners of other vessels stalled in Suez during the blockage. There could also be fights over financial responsibility among the owner, its insurers, and their reinsurers, who protect insurers against excess claims. The merry-go-round of litigation might drag on for years, to the delight of Londons legal industry and probably no one else.

The Ever Given anchored in the Great Bitter Lake.

Photographer: Mohamed El-shahed/AP Photo

Captain Kanthavel and his crew have now been floating in the Great Bitter Lake for about three months. According to the International Transport Workers Federation, a coalition of unions, they are still receiving their pay and are amply provisioned. Nine have been allowed to return to India. Seafarers groups are nonetheless anxious about their welfare; at one point, the Indian maritime union said it was concerned they could be held to ransom, becoming bargaining chips in negotiations that had nothing to do with them. Thepotential settlement is, therefore, excellent news for the crew. Once its complete, they and the vessel should be able to leave.

In a meeting with Businessweek at the SCAs headquarters in May, Elsayed reflected on his role in this peculiar moment of nautical history. In the navy, hed studied Operation Badr, an ingenious plan to move Egyptian forces across Suez in just six hours, allowing them to surprise Israeli troops and start the 1973 Yom Kippur War. He hadnt quite matched that pace, but the SCA had managed to refloat the Ever Given in six days. Its the same, he said, laughing.

Night had fallen by the time Elsayed offered to lead his visitors on a tour of the SCA control tower. Outside, the canal was a dark expanse, fringed by twinkling lights along the shore. It was empty: The next convoy wasnt due to depart for a few more hours. Above the CCTV feeds, a digital map of the entire route was spread across 10 large monitors. Elsayed pointed to a yellow blob in the Great Bitter Lake, motionless on the screen, and said, See the Ever Given? With Ann KohRead next: The Commodities Boom Is Luring Criminals to Make Bigger and Bolder Scores

Read more:

How the Billion-Dollar Ever Given Cargo Ship Got Stuck in the Suez Canal - Bloomberg

Miami condo collapse: Drone footage shows aftermath destruction

A condominium building partially collapsed in Surfside, Florida. Many are still considered missing.

USA TODAY, Newsflare

Saltwater and brine-soaked air settle into the pores of coastal construction, growing a rusty crust around the steel skeletons that reinforce oceanfront structures. It weakens the bonds between metal and concrete creating cracks and crumbles in vulnerable areas.

Some building experts wondered if that kind ofenvironmental assault supercharged by climate change could have played arole in the catastrophic collapse at the 40-year-old Champlain Towers South Condo in Surfside, Fla.

Sea level rise does cause potential corrosion and if that was happening, its possible it could not handle the weight of the building, said Zhong-Ren Peng, professor and Director of University of Floridas International Center for Adaptation Planning and Design. I think this could be a wakeup call for coastal developments.

Sea level rise, the gurgle of more frequent king tide flooding, and changes in soil consistency or location are elements dealt with by any building on a barrier island.

Collapsed Miami condo had been sinkinginto Earth as early as the 1990s, researchers say

Latest updates on the condo collapse:At least 4 people dead, 159 unaccounted for

Building collapse: 'Third World' building collapse front page news in Latin America

And below the surface beneath parking garages the twice-daily pressure of the tides on groundwater could keep a buildings foundation wet and on an uneven footing.

The Champlain Towers South Condo has a plump renourished beach and dune to assuage a direct ocean charge and is four blocks from Biscayne Bay.

Still, Albert Slap, president of Boca Raton-based RiskFootprint, said it can be invisible machinations the push and pull of tides on limestone bedrock combined with rising seas that can weakena buildings integrity.

RiskFootprint provides assessments for private homeowners and business developments that includes looking at threats from sea level rise, king tides so-called sunny day flooding and storm surge.

Even if when the building was built in 1981 the foundation was dry most of the time, with sea level rise pushing groundwater up to the surface, the foundation could be wet enough long enough to soften the concrete, Slap said. Many of these buildings with underground parking have sump pumps running and that means the foundation is in the water.

Building official of Surfside: Condo was on roof 14 hours before structure collapsed

Related: Engineer who probed FIU bridge collapse to investigate Surfside condo

A 2019 analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that high tide flooding the previous year broke records at more than a dozen locations, including Miami and Cedar Key on the Gulf Coast.

At the same time global sea-level rise is about 1 inch every eight years.

Video: Champlain Towers condo partially collapses in Surfside, Florida

Nearly 100 people missing after Champlain Towers South Condo in Surfside partially collapses overnight.

Lannis Waters, Palm Beach Post

Between 2000 and 2017 alone, sea-level rise at the Key West tide gauge measured about 3.9 inches, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Change Compact's 2019 sea-level rise report.

South Florida's coastal waters could jump 10 to 17 inches by 2040 and 21 to 54 inches by 2070 above the 2000 mean sea level in Key West. The long-term sea-level rise is predicted to be 40 to 136 inches by 2120, the report says. The compact stresses that South Florida's sea-level rise could be faster than the global rate because of a slowing of the Gulf Stream current.

Heartbreaking imagescapture the Surfside building collapse and rescue efforts

Climate change can play a role, said Atorod Azizinamini, chair of Florida International Universitys College of Engineering. It can cause settlement of the ground with sea level rise, and corrosion.

Buildings can be designed to withstand anything anywhere. You can have a high rise building in the middle of the ocean, Azizinamini said. But in the 1980s,the subtle creep of rising seas was likelyless of a concern.

A Florida International University study on the building found that it had been sinking since the 1990s at a rate of about 2 millimeters a year. FIU Department of Earth and Environment Professor Shimon Wdowinski was lead author on a report published in Science Direct on subsidence land sinking in Miami Beach and Norfolk, VA.

The report notes the Champlain only as a "12-story building."

The main message now is wedont want to rush to conclusions, saidAzizinamini. Let the investigation happen and we can learn from our mistakes.

Eugenio Santiago, a structural engineer and former chief building official at the Village of Key Biscayne, isnt convinced rising seas or wet concrete had anything to do with Thursdays collapse.

He said the way the building pancaked makes him think it was the failure of a column holding up a slab of floor. When it fails, one slab punches through to the next in a chain reaction until it reaches the ground.

If the building was undergoing roof work, as Surfside Mayor Charles Burkett said on NBCs Today show, its possible heavy materials could have been placed improperly, causing the failure.

It would be very rare to have a building with that much corrosion and no one saw it, Santiago said about a link to saltwater and sea level rise. To have that kind of corrosive damage, someone would have said something or seen something.

At 40 years old, the building was undergoing a required recertification.

Madasamy Arockiasamy, director of the Center for Infrastructure and Constructed Facilities at Florida Atlantic University, said the settling noted by FIU couldbe one reason for the collapse. He doesnt believe climate change had a direct impact, instead agreeing with Santiago that it could have been caused byheavy equipment on the roof.

Roofs are designed to hold a very specific amount of weight. He noted air conditioning units on Champlain's roof and said it would generally be built to withstand some light roof construction.

The video shows the middle portion of the roof collapses followed by the sides, Arockiasamy said. More bending means you stress the concrete beyond its tensile capacity.

There are older buildings on the same barrier island with Surfside that have not suffered the kind of structural breakdown that happened at Champlain Towers, but Slap said buildings deal with geologic and environmental situations differently.

Azizinamini agreed.

"You can have two buildings next to each other, one made a mistake in design and the other didn't," he said. "It's natural for people to try to identify right away what happened, but that's not the scientific approach."

Azizinamini said the investigation could take months with everything from corrosion to nearby construction analyzed for its potential role in the devastation.

Kmiller@pbpost.com

@Kmillerweather

Read more:

Could the increasing assault of king tides and sea level rise have contributed to Miami condo collapse? - Palm Beach Post

There are a bunch of new movies and TV shows coming to HBO Max next month, including the highly-anticipated Space Jam: A New Legacy. While July is giving streaming fans a lot to look forward to, there is also some bad news about the month ahead. There are a ton of titles leaving HBO Max as well. From beloved horror franchises to popular comedies, a lot of fan-favorite movies are making their way off of the streaming service.

Most of the Conjuring films are leaving HBO Max over the course of the next month, including the newly-released The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It. HBO Max is also losing many of the Nightmare on Elm Street films, in addition to Mad Max: Fury Road and The Goonies.

Here's the full list of titles leaving HBO Max in July:

July 3: The ABCs Of Covid-19: A CNN/Sesame Street Town Hall for Kids and Parents Part 2, 2020July 4: Annabelle, 2014Annabelle Comes Home, 2019 (HBO)The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, 2021The Curse of La Llorona, 2019The Nun, 2018 July 5:Lost And Delirious, 2001 July 8:Mad Max: Fury Road, 2015July 10: It: Chapter 2, 2019 (HBO)July 11:An Elephant's Journey, 2018In the Heights, 2021Thanks for Sharing, 2013July 15:Burlesque, 2010July 17:The Notebook, 2004July 26:The King's Speech, 2010July 31:17 Again, 2009A Clockwork Orange, 1971A Nightmare on Elm Street 2: Freddy's Revenge, 1985A Nightmare on Elm Street 4: The Dream Master, 1988A Nightmare on Elm Street 5: The Dream Child, 1989A Nightmare on Elm Street, 1984A Nightmare on Elm Street, 2010Adam's Rib, 1949America's Sweethearts, 2001Anaconda, 1997The Apparition, 2012 (HBO)Are We There Yet?, 2005Argo, 2012 (Alternate Version) (HBO)AVP: Alien vs. Predator, 2004 (Alternate Version) (HBO)Badlands, 1973Beau Brummel, 1954The Benchwarmers, 2006Beverly Hills Chihuahua 2, 2011 (HBO)Beverly Hills Chihuahua 3: Viva La Fiesta!, 2012 (HBO)Billy Madison, 1995 (HBO)The Book Of Eli, 2010 (HBO)Bram Stoker's Dracula, 1992Bringing Up Baby, 1938The City of Lost Children, 1995The Color Purple, 1985The Comebacks, 2007 (Alternate Version) (HBO)The Conjuring 2, 2016The Crocodile Hunter: Collision Course, 2002 (HBO)Don't Let Go, 2019 (HBO)Downton Abbey, 2019 (HBO)El Angel (aka The Angel), 2018 (HBO)Eyes Wide Shut, 1999Fool's Gold, 2008Fort Tilden, 2015 (HBO)The Four Feathers, 2002 (HBO)The Gay Divorcee, 1934Get A Job, 2016 (HBO)The Goonies, 1985Grand Canyon, 1991 (HBO)Hairspray, 1988Happy Gilmore, 1996 (HBO)Hellboy Animated Collection, 2006, 2007The Hurricane, 1999 (HBO)I Know What You Did Last Summer, 1997Iniciales SG (aka Initials S.G.), 2019 (HBO)J. Edgar, 2011Jackie Chan's First Strike, 1997Jacob's Ladder, 1990 (HBO)Jeremiah Johnson, 1972Keeper Of The Flame, 1943Kill Bill: Vol. 1, 2003 (HBO)Kill Bill: Vol. 2, 2004 (HBO)Kung Fu Hustle, 2005The Lego Ninjago Movie, 2014Less Than Zero, 1987 (HBO)Life Stinks, 1991 (HBO)Lincoln, 2012 (HBO)Little Children, 2006 (HBO)Little Man Tate, 1991 (HBO)Lovely & Amazing, 2002The Lucky One, 2012(HBO)The Madness of King George, 1994 (HBO)Marisol, 2019 (HBO)Me 3.769, 2019 (HBO)Michael Clayton, 2007Mickey Blue Eyes, 1999Monster-In-Law, 2005Mulholland Dr., 2001Muralla (aka Muralla, The Goalkeeper), 2018 (HBO)Murder on the Orient Express, 1974 (HBO)Music and Lyrics, 2007My Dream Is Yours, 1949My Girl 2, 1994My Girl, 1991My Sister's Keeper, 2009Now, Voyager, 1942Old Dogs, 2009 (HBO)The Opposite Sex, 1956The Pledge, 2001 (HBO)Precious, 2009 (HBO)The Producers, 1968The Prophecy, 1995 (HBO)The Prophecy II, 1998 (HBO)The Prophecy III: The Ascent, 2000 (HBO)Prophecy IV: The Uprising, 2005 (HBO)Prophecy V: The Forsaken, 2005 (HBO)Pulp Fiction, 1994Rachel and The Stranger, 1948Radio Days, 1987 (HBO)The Reluctant Debutante, 1958Revenge of the Nerds II: Nerds in Paradise, 1987 (HBO)Revenge of the Nerds IV: Nerds in Love, 2005 (HBO)Revenge of the Nerds, 1984 (HBO)Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves, 1991Roger & Me, 1989Rollerball, 2002 (HBO)Romance on the High Seas, 1948Rumble in the Bronx, 1996Safe House, 2012 (HBO)Salvador, 1986 (HBO)Shall We Dance?, 2004Shallow Hal, 2001 (HBO)Shocker, 1989 (HBO)Sinbad of the Seven Seas, 1989 (HBO)Sprung, 1997 (HBO)Stop-Loss, 2008 (HBO)Sunshine Cleaning, 2009 (HBO)Swing Time, 1936Tea for Two, 1950Thief, 1981 (HBO)This Is Spinal Tap, 1984 (HBO)Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, 2011 (HBO)Top Hat, 1935Trapped in Paradise, 1994 (HBO)Troll 2, 1990 (HBO)Troll, 1986 (HBO)Two Minutes of Fame, 2020 (HBO)Underdog, 2007 (HBO)Untamed Heart, 1993 (HBO)Up in the Air, 2009 (HBO)The Visitor, 2008Waiting for Guffman, 1997The Wedding Singer, 1998Wendy, 2020 (HBO)Wildcats, 1986 (HBO)The Wings of Eagles, 1957Without Love, 1945Woman of the Year, 1942Worth Winning, 1989 (HBO)Young Man with a Horn, 1949

Which of these titles are you most disappointed to see leave HBO Max next month? Let us know in the comments!

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Everything Leaving HBO Max in July 2021 - ComicBook.com

MetService Severe weather: June 30th.

KEY POINTS * Snow falls on hills surrounding Wellington after 'intense' hail storm* Snow blankets South Island, thunderstorm risk growing* More than 20 flights cancelled in and out of Wellington Airport* Major highways in central North Island closed including the Desert Rd and State Highway 4 from Tohunga Junction to National Park* MetService issues threat of damaging waves to the country's entire coastline

Light snow is now falling across Wellington down to sea level as coastal residents are on notice to leave with just a moment's warning ahead of large swells set to hit after dark.

Sea level snow is now drifting across the carpark of Greta Point's Wellington campus, with flurries peppering suburbs from Karori through to Broadmeadows as the bitterly-cold polar blast lashes the bottom half of the North Island.

An ice-laced wind straight off the southern continent is sending temperatures in the capital plunging below zero.

Snow has also been falling in Taranaki this morning and the Desert Rd remains closed, made impassable by the stormy weather. Snow has also started falling on the Napier-Taupo highway.

The capital's regional emergency management office this morning updated it heavy swell warning with a stern message for people to avoid the shoreline where possible.

It said it was currently monitoring the situation and making preparations for the expected impacts this evening.

In a Facebook post it says from 9pm the swells will be at their heaviest.

MetService has forecast powerful swells up to 8 m high will pound the capital coastline today.

For those living on Wellington's south coast and south and east Wairarapa coast people are advised to have grab bag to leave at short notice and an alternate place to stay away from the danger.

28 Jun, 2021 07:57 AMQuick Read

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While large waves were expected in the inner harbour area along the Petone and Eastbourne coastlines it said the impacts were not expected to be as significant as that for the South Coast.

Civil defence reiterated a warning to stay out of the water after two kayakers feared missing in Wellington harbour were found 22km away after a search was mounted in mountainous seas off Wellington's south coast.

An extensive hunt on sea, land and air was earlier launched for the two men who had been seen in trouble off Wellington's coast at Seatoun.

The pair were found safe in Petone.

Search efforts police walking along the shoreline while the Police Maritime Unit, Coastguard and a rescue helicopter looked for the duo on the water and in the air.

"Police urge people to avoid or delay any unnecessary outdoor activities given the severe weather conditions in Wellington at the moment," said a spokesperson.

"Conditions are dangerous on the water and on the roads due to high winds, and we urge people to take precautions and keep safe."

It comes as the Antarctic blast that swept up the South Island, bringing freezing temperatures, dumping snow and grounding Air New Zealand flights, moves over the North Island and temperatures drop below zero.

With snow blanketing much of the south, leaving numerous highways closed and even falling to sea level in Christchurch overnight, the focus is now on the north, which is feeling the brunt of the polar air.

Icy showers and sleet are now hitting upper slopes of Wellington with snow expected on the capital's eastern hills and the Remutaka and Orongorongo Ranges across the rest of the day.

MetService says while the temperature is registering at 4.3C with wind chill it feels like -2C.

Twenty-five flights have been cancelled in and out of Wellington Airport as stormy weather bears down.

"Moa Point road is currently experiencing some surface flooding and other local roads are also likely to be impacted by the weather," a spokesperson said.

"We are working with Wellington Regional Emergency Management Office to keep an eye on developments and are regularly inspecting our runway and seawalls to ensure they are not damaged.We are advising travellers to contact their airline or keep an eye on Wellington Airport's Live Flight Information for latest updates. We also advise taking extra time and care getting to and from the airport.

"We will provide further updates on our social media pages."

Heavy snowfall warnings are in place for regions across the lower half of the North Island, with Wellington already experiencing hail storms earlier this morning. Wellington City Council said a Johnsonville bus became stuck due to ice just after 6.30am.

At 7.40am the main shock of the freezing polar blast was centred halfway up the North Island, according to weatherwatch.co.nz.

Major highways in the centre of the North Island are now closed by heavy snow including the Desert Rd and State Highway 4 from Tohunga Junction to National Park. Those travelling on State Highway 5 between Napier and Taupo have been warned of treacherous driving conditions, but at this stage the road is open.

Snow has even started falling in Taranaki, with Stratford getting a rare dusting this morning.

Forecaster Angus Hines said snow was falling in the region, and more would come in the next hour. He said it was "pretty unusual" for this part of the North Island to get a coating.

As the mercury continued to drop, MetService has also issued a threat of damaging waves to the country's entire coastline.

MetService forecaster Gerard Bellam said they were very large, high-energy waves that posed a threat to any seaboard location over the coming 24 hours.

These powerful waves had the potential to catch people unawares if walking on beaches or driving along coastal roads. There was also the potential for waves to affect land or property near any coastline.

A heavy swell warning is in force for Wellington's south coast from Baring Head to Sinclair Head.

The southerly swell was expected to reach 6m on Tuesday evening, with the highest risk period coinciding with high tide at 8.24am and 8.54pm.

By Wednesday night the swell is likely to ease to around 4m.

MetService meteorologist Angus Hines warned today's waves could be damaging to low lying properties and roads. People in the area are urged to stay out of the water and be prepared to leave their properties if they are at risk.

The Wellington Region Emergency Management Office said the impact of today's morning high tide could be similar to what was experienced in whiro Bay in April last year when 6m waves battered roads and flooded properties.

The agency said people who lived in homes that had been impacted by past swells and storm events should be prepared for these potential impacts again.

The wild weather has disrupted travel in both islands with the Interislander ferry cancelling all sailings for today, while Air New Zealand cancelled 33 flights in and out of Dunedin, Invercargill and Queenstown yesterday.

The polar blast brought snow to sea level in parts of the south yesterday, as well as huge seas and gales laced with a bitterly cold -20C windchill.

An active cold front and south-to-southwesterly winds will track north across the remainder of the country, with numerous weather warnings in force.

Heavy snow was possible in Taihape, around the Tararua Range and Banks Peninsula today.

A road snowfall warning is in place for the Napier-Taup Rd (until midday Tuesday), Desert Rd (until 5pm Tuesday) and Remutaka Hill Rd (until 4pm Tuesday) in the North Island.

Bellam said snow had fallen to low levels across the Southland and Otago, with blizzard-like conditions in alpine areas.

The polar outbreak had left snow falling down to sea level in Christchurch.

The bitterly cold air mass was now continuing on its northern track, bringing with it severe gales and large seas.

Snow and ice in Queenstown yesterday forced some drivers to carry chains and motorists across the Wakatipu Basin and in Wanaka were urged to watch for rockfall.

Yesterday morning, Treble Cone was coated in 15cm of snow on the upper slopes and Cardrona had received around 10cm.

Moke Lake in Queenstown, the Crown Range Summit and Ben Nevis Range were coated in snow.

Meanwhile, Waka Kotahi has urged motorists driving on SH11/Desert Rd and SH5 Napier- Taup Rd today to prepare for winter driving conditions, including snow and ice.

Waikato system manager Cara Lauder said further road closures were possible and motorists should plan ahead and drive prepared with a spare tire, charged cellphone, blankets, snacks and a bottle of water in case they break down.

"Plan ahead, allow extra time for your journeys and drive to the road and weather conditions. Maintain a greater following distance between your vehicle and the one in front, slow down and be prepared for unexpected hazards."

SH94 Milford Rd and SH87 between Kyeburn and Outram were both closed overnight while in the North Island SH56 between Opiki and the Manawatu River Bridge was closed due to flooding.

Get out the woollies in Wellington today, as snow is forecasted to 300m with the chilly high of 8C and low of 6C while strong southwesterly and gale winds gusting to 90km/h are expected.

In Auckland, a high of 13C and low of 4C is on the cards, with frequent showers in the morning, possibly turning heavy before clearing to fine weather in the afternoon.

The rain clouds would clear by Wednesday but the temperature would stay cool in Auckland, with a high of 14C for the rest of week and lows of between 4C-6C.

The weather is less severe in Whangrei today, with a few showers forecasted before clearing and turning fine.

Meanwhile, as one part of the country is coated in snow, those in Horowhenua are facing the possibility they may run out of water.

The Horowhenua District Council has pleaded for thousands of residents in Levin, Tokomaru and Shannon to reduce or stop using water immediately.

Due to the recent rain, water-treatment plants have struggled to effectively treat the muddy river water for the region's drinking water supplies.

"If residents don't act to reduce water usage or stop completely if they're able, there is a real risk that the water supply will run out and the community will need to rely on bottled water or water tanker supplies to service their minimum requirements," the council said.

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Antarctic blast weather across New Zealand: Snow, polar cold temperatures, huge waves strike the North Island coast - New Zealand Herald