Category Archives: Gambling

For years, politicians in the Sunshine State have struggled over whether they want to let glitzy Las-Vegas style casinos sprout beside Florida's sugar-white beaches.

The Republican-controlled Legislature, split among factions including those worried that more gambling would harm Florida's ``family-friendly'' brand, has never reached consensus. But this year GOP leaders insist they may achieve a breakthrough - prompted by ongoing court battles and fatigue with a seemingly never-ending gambling debate.

Inaction is not a choice,'' said Sen. Bill Galvano, a powerful Bradenton Republican who is sponsoring a major gambling bill this year.

The promise of a breakthrough to end years of impasse, however, would require major compromises in the 60-day session opening next week.

Galvano and his fellow senators are advancing a proposal that would expand gambling far beyond its current locations, while House Republicans are backing a plan to ``freeze'' gambling as it now exists in the state.

Gambling is supposed to be illegal'' in Florida, but really isn't. There's plenty of it around the state, often tucked away from theme parks and beaches in locations known mostly to locals and retirees who flock to Florida each winter.

While the state lacks high-end casinos like Las Vegas, the Seminole Tribe operates several casinos, including Hard Rock hotels and casinos in Tampa and Hollywood. Dog and horse tracks are scattered statewide, but only those in south Florida have been permitted to install slot machines, while only the tribe is authorized to offer blackjack.

Any attempt to change the state's byzantine gambling laws will face a gauntlet of competing interests. They range from animal rights activists who want dog tracks to drop greyhound racing to the owners of existing tracks fearful that the Seminole Tribe and out-of-state corporations will squeeze them out of business unless they are granted concessions similar to those given the tribe.

There are long-term gaming operators in this state in the need of a fair modern business model in order to compete and grow,'' said Dan Adkins, vice president of Mardi Gras Casino in Hallandale Beach.

Then there are state business groups worried that expanding gambling will harm Disney World and other family friendly theme parks in a state that welcomes more than 100 million visitors annually. And others are opposed to expanding gambling on moral and ethical grounds.

David Tarbert, a Tallahassee attorney who notes he was addicted to gambling for 36 years, said lawmakers should again this year reject any proposals to make gambling more widespread. He said politicians interested in expanding gambling want to raise more money without raising taxes.

I think it is essentially getting government revenue on the backs of people's addiction,'' said Tarbert, who helped establish a Gamblers Anonymous chapter in the state capital two years ago. I think it's morally reprehensible.''

There's no question that Florida's government takes in money due to gambling. The current deal with the Seminole Tribe has resulted in nearly $2 billion since 2010.

But the push this year isn't just about money. Part of it is due to court battles that could alter Florida's gambling landscape _ unless legislators act.

In one pending case, the Florida Supreme Court could allow dog and horse tracks in eight counties to add slot machines.

Another legal battle pits the Seminoles against the state. Seven years ago the state reached an exclusive deal to let the tribe offer blackjack at many of its Florida casinos, but that provision expired in 2015.

Republican leaders say they want to resolve the court battles and constant turmoil with some sort of comprehensive overhaul. But the Senate and House have to reconcile their major differences.

The Senate bill would allow slot machines at tracks in several counties outside of South Florida. It also would allow the Seminole Tribe to add craps and roulette at its casinos _ and let track owners keep their gambling operations even if they drop live racing.

But the House proposal would block any additional gambling and instead just let the Seminoles keep blackjack and slot machines at its casinos for 20 years. While saying the House is open to negotiations, the sponsor of that legislation declared that the Senate proposal was a non-starter'' in the House.

This is a long term deal,'' said Rep. Mike La Rosa, a St. Cloud Republican. So we can't be afraid to step away from the table if we ultimately have to.''

Published at 7:05 AM EST on Mar 6, 2017 | Updated at 7:44 AM EST on Mar 6, 2017

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Florida Legislature Taking up Issue of Gambling Restriction in State During 2017 Session - NBC 6 South Florida

Last reviewed September 2014

This guide is compiled by staff at the Minnesota Legislative Reference Library on a topic of interest to Minnesota legislators. It is designed to provide an introduction to the topic, directing the user to a variety of sources, and is not intended to be exhaustive.

These forms of gambling are legal in Minnesota: pari-mutuel betting on horse racing, a card club at Canterbury Park, Indian tribal casinos, charitable gambling and a state lottery. According to the House Research publication Gambling Revenue, state revenue from the lottery, pari-mutuel, charitable gambling and tribal casinos was $170.2 million in FY2014. For fiscal year 2015, gross receipts from lawful gambling were $1.3 billion (Annual Report 2015 Fiscal Year, Minnesota Gambling Control Board).

Types of legal gambling in Minnesota

For a more detailed legislative history, see the House Research document, Gambling in Minnesota: A Short History.

Annual Report. Roseville, MN: Minnesota State Lottery. (HG6133.M6 M57)

Annual Report of the Minnesota Gambling Control Board. Roseville, MN: Minnesota Gambling Control Board. (HV6721.M6 M56)

Annual Report of the Minnesota Racing Commission. St. Paul: Minnesota Racing Commission. (SF324.35.M6 M56)

Arts, Waltraud A. The Authority of the Minnesota Legislature to Authorize Gaming Operated by the State. Madison, WI: Quarles & Brady, LLP, 2005. (KFM5785.A78 2005)

Biggerstaff, Andrew. Online Gambling: Federal Law. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department, 2013.

Casino City's North American Gaming Almanac. Newton, MA: Casino City Press. (Reference GV1301.C37) (This report contains market overviews by country, state, and province or territory, revenue charts and tables by gaming activity, gaming property facility and amenity profiles.)

Charitable Gambling Impact Study : A Brief Review of the Fiscal Impact of a Statewide Smoking Ban on Lawful Gambling. Roseville, MN : Minnesota Gambling Control Board, 2008. (HV6721.M6 C43 2008)

Charitable Gambling in Minnesota. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department, 2010.

The Economic Impact of Indian Gaming in Minnesota. Bemidji, MN: Minnesota Indian Gaming Association, 2016. (E78.M7 E46 2016)

Evans, William N. The Social and Economic Impact of Native American Casinos. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002. (E98.G18 E93 2002)

Financial Summary for Licensed Lawful Gambling Organizations. Roseville, MN : State of Minnesota, Gambling Control Board. (HV6721.M6 F565)

Gambling in Minnesota: An Overview. St. Paul: Minnesota State Lottery, 2013.

Gambling Taxes. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department.

Governor's Report on Compulsive Gambling. St. Paul: Office of the Governor. (RC569.5 G35 G69)

Grinols, Earl. Gambling in America: Costs and Benefits. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2004. (HV6715.G76 2004)

Gambling Regulation and Oversight. St. Paul: Minnesota Office of the Legislative Auditor, Program Evaluation Division, 2005. (HV6721.M6 J86 2005)

Hansen, Alicia. Lotteries and State Fiscal Policy (Tax Foundation Background Paper). (HG6126 .H36 2004)

Indian Gambling in Minnesota. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department, 2008.

Lawful (Charitable) Gambling in Minnesota:Issues Facing the Industry. Roseville, MN: Minnesota Gambling Control Board, 2009. (HV6721.M6 L393 2009)

Lawful Gambling Manual. Roseville, MN: Minnesota Gambling Control Board. (KFM5785.Z9 L39)

Lottery Organization Task Force. Lottery Organizational Task Force Report. St. Paul: The Task Force, 2005. (HG6133.M6 L69 2005)

McCormack, Patrick J. Charitable Gambling in Minnesota. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department, 2010. (HV6721.M6 M33 2010)

Meister, Alan. Indian Gaming Industry Report. Newton, MA: Casino City Press, 2014. (E98.G18 M45 2014)

Minnesota Live. (A proposal to renovate Block E (Hennepin and First Avenues between Sixth and Seventh Streets) in downtown Minneapolis. The centerpiece would be a state-owned and operated casino.) Minnesota: HV6711 .M55 2011.

Minnesota State Lottery. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department, 2006.

Minnesota State Lottery. St. Paul: Minnesota Office of the Legislative Auditor, Program Evaluation Division, 2004. (HG6133.M6Y86 2004)

Minnesota State Lottery July 1, 2004, through December 31, 2005. St. Paul: Financial Audit Division, Office of the Legislative Auditor, State of Minnesota, 2006. (HJ9865 .A27 no. 06-25)

Minnesota State Lottery Overview. Roseville, Minn. : Minnesota State Lottery, 2013.

Runge, C. Ford. The Workforce Economic Benefits of Minnesota Indian Gaming Association Member Tribes' Casino-Resorts. Minnesota : Minnesota Indian Gaming Association, 2007. (E78.M7 R86 2007)

Social and Economic Costs of Gambling: A Report to the 2008 Minnesota Legislature. St. Paul: Minnesota Dept. of Human Services, 2007. (HV6721.M6 S63 2007)

Stinchfield, Randy. Evaluation of State-Supported Pathological Gambling Treatment in Minnesota. Minnesota: 2008. (RC569.5.G35 S754 2008)

Texas Hold'em. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department, 2008.

Williams, John. Charitable Gambling in Minnesota. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department, 2005 (HV6721.M6 W55 2005)

Williams, John. Gambling in Minnesota: A Short History. St. Paul: Minnesota House of Representatives, House Research Department, 2005. (KFM5785.Z9 W54 2005)

Regulatory Statutes and Criminal Statutes (Department of Public Safety)

Links to the World: Gambling includes links to information about gambling and to groups monitoring gambling issues

Minnesota House Research Department Gambling Publications

Minnesota Indian Gaming Association

Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) Gaming Compacts

For historical information, check the following codes in the Newspaper Clipping Files and the Vertical Files:

G2 (Gambling), G2.4 (Gambling Charitable), G2.1 (Gambling Compulsive), G2.3 (Gambling Indian), G2.6 (Gambling Lottery), G2.10 (Gambling Pari-mutuel Betting),G 2.18 (Gambling Video Gambling/Slot Machines), M68 (Gambling Control Board), R10.8 (Racing Canterbury Park)

For additional reports at the Legislative Library, use these Library catalog searches: Gambling; Gambling (Minnesota); Indian Gaming (Minnesota); Lotteries; Lotteries (Minnesota); Compulsive Gamblers; Charitable Gambling.

Periodicals in the Librarys collection:

Gaming News, La Fleur's Magazine, Link (Minnesota State Lottery)

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Gambling - Resources on Minnesota Issues

For nearly two years, conservative and liberty-oriented organizations have warned congressional leaders about the danger of passing legislation known as Restore Americas Wire Act. The bill was written by lobbyists for Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson and is designed to overturn state laws that create competition for his brick and mortar casino empire.

This month, however, conservatives across the nation sent a clear message to Adelson and his cohorts that they will not tolerate such an egregious example of political cronyism.

An incredible nine in ten participants said they would oppose efforts to have the federal government overturn state laws regarding online gaming. In addition, 88 percent said they see RAWA as an example of cronyism. In an age of political division and factionalism, the results are staggering.

Despitemillions of dollars in Astroturf spending and political contributions, it is clear that conservatives see the bill for what it is one of the worst forms of crony capitalism in Congress today. RAWA is nothing short of an effort by one of the richest men in the world to ban a form of competition for his brick and mortar casino empire and everyone knows it. Worse yet, he is even willing to trample on the Constitution to do it.

RAWA wasintroduced by Sen. Lindsey GrahamLindsey GrahamGraham expects new travel ban to 'pass legal muster' Conservatives oppose Adelsons federal gambling ban Juan Williams: Time for a special prosecutor MORE (R-SC) in the Senate and by Rep. Jason ChaffetzJason ChaffetzGOP chairman seeks M to transfer federal land Oversight chair: 'I have not seen anything' to back Trump's wiretapping claim Conservatives oppose Adelsons federal gambling ban MORE (R-Utah) in the House of Representatives. The bill has been sold as a means of stopping the proliferation of online gambling, but in reality it only targets states like New Jersey and Delaware that have legalized online gaming for their residents. The legislation also prohibits states like Georgia and Illinois from selling lottery tickets online.

During a congressional hearing on the bill, Rep. Jody Hice (R-Ga.)noted that the bill would short-change half a dozen states that allow for the sale of online lottery tickets. Then, Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.)pointed out that by regulating online intrastate commerce, the bill would open the door legislation sought by gun control advocates to bar the sale of online ammunition.

A diverse number of organizations ranging from the Institute for Liberty, Competitive Enterprise Institute, and the American Conservative Union to the organization representing state lotteries all oppose RAWA.

To Sheldon Adelsons credit, he didnt get to where he is without being tenacious. Despite running into a brick wall of opposition, he is again trying to impose his will via Congress. RAWA has been re-introduced. Perhaps most troubling this time around were comments by then-Sen. Jeff SessionsJeff SessionsSchumer: DOJ nominee must commit to special prosecutor for Trump-Russia probe Trump wants Congress to investigate leaks Schumer asks for review of 'political interference' in Russia investigations MORE, who at his confirmation hearingsinsinuatedthat he was willing to reopen the issue at the Department of Justice. This would be a grave error.

A core component of federalism is the right of states to govern themselves. Gambling has always fallen under that rubric. Some states allow for liberal gaming laws while others, like Utah and Hawaii, bar gambling all together. That is how things are supposed to be.

The federal government should not trample on states rights, and certainly not to satisfy the parochial whims of one of the GOP's largest donors. As Justice O'Connor said in 1992, "The Constitution protects us from our own best intentions: It divides power among sovereigns and among branches of government precisely so that we may resist the temptation to concentrate power in one location as an expedient solution to the crisis of the day.

That is a guiding principle that has served our nation well for more than two centuries. It would be foolhardy to violate it in this case.

Andrew Langer is president of the Institute for Liberty,a conservative public policy advocacy organization.

The views expressed by contributors are their own and are not the views of The Hill.

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Conservatives oppose Adelson's federal gambling ban - The Hill (blog)

OnlinePokerReport.com

Online gambling | Miami Herald Miami Herald During the 2016 campaign, candidate Donald Trump was never asked what he thought of online gambling, which is currently banned in most states. Perhaps ... Pennsylvania And Michigan Expected To Hold Online Gambling Hearings This WeekOnlinePokerReport.com Massachusetts casino operators reportedly don't object to online ...World Casino Directory Online gambling won't cure Pennsylvania's budget hangover | Editoriallehighvalleylive.com Gambling Insider - In-depth Analysis for the Gaming Industry all 17 news articles »

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Online gambling | Miami Herald - Miami Herald

Philip Hammond does not give the impression of someone who spends a lot of time in the bookies. The Chancellor of the Exchequer will this week set out his Budget and it is unlikely we will see any big money flutters.

This time last year Spreadsheet Phils predecessor George Osborne, if you can remember him, gave gambling companies a let off. Speculation that duties on controversial touch screen gaming machines in high street betting shops wouldbe raised proved unfounded.

Fixed-odds betting terminals have been called the crack cocaine of the betting industry by anti-gambling campaigners and a few taps of a phone screen can also see the habit fed from the comfort of your living room.

So why is there unlikely to be any great move to curb and control an industry that provide lots of good, light hearted fun but can also very easily destroy peoples lives?

Look to the lobbyists. In one hand there is a tasty looking carrot, in the other a very sharp stick.

The same tactics were and to an extent still are used by the tobacco and alcohol industries but both of these have seen stringent restrictions put in place on much of what they do, particularly when it comes to pricing and advertising.

That is certainly not the case for the gambling industry. Try and watch a game of football without having Ray Winstone or some other second rate actor suggesting you fork out some more cash.

Have a listen to a commercial sports radio programme and count the number of times betting partners come on to help preview big events.

It is insidious.

Kevin Stewart, now an SNP minister but then a Holyrood committee chair, was subject to aggressive behaviour from industry body Senet when he was taking evidence for an investigation into high-stakes gambling machines.

The MSP also revealed that bookmaker William Hill sent a representative to track him down at an SNP conference in Aberdeen.

All of this forced John Heaton, chief executive of Scotbet, to eventually apologise on Senets behalf for the perception that bookmakers were being overly aggressive.

So theres the stick, although it is to both Mr Stewart and the Scottish Governments credit that plans have been announced to subject betting operators and pay day lenders to increased planning controls.

To the carrot then, and a report this week that Corri Wilson, the SNP MP for Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock, has accepted gifts and hospitality worth 1,400 from companies involved in the gambling industry, including free entry to every race meeting in Scotland.

No one from William Hill needs to make a return trip to Aberdeen for the Nationalist conference in a fortnights time as she has already hosted a breakfast briefing for the company at Westminster and penned a parliamentary motion commending Britains bookmakers.

Ms Wilson sits on the SNPs national executive committee and the party says she has done nothing wrong.

This is of course correct in the sense that there is nothing to stop industry meeting politicians, indeed that in itself is common place, and any agreements between the parties in this case appear to be in the public domain.

It is perhaps worth pausing for thought, though, to consider the future direction of travel for our country.

At what point will there be a realisation that gambling that the potential to be the next great health crisis, not attacking our lungs or liver like cigarettes and alcohol but instead destroying mental health?

More crucially, will our politicians be brave when faced with offers theyve previously been unable to refuse?

Go here to see the original:

Gambling with our own lives - The Courier

Bruce Kinsman says he caught the bug playing poker in Vietnam.

Before he was confronted by his anguished wife, Bruce Kinsman was losing about $1,000 a week on the state lottery in frenetic pursuit of a jackpot. Realizing his gambling had spiraled out of control, he quit completely a decade ago and began attending Gamblers Anonymous meetings.

Today, Kinsman, 67, traces his compulsive gambling, an addiction that ravaged his life for decades, to his military service in Vietnam, when he said he caught the bug playing high-stakes poker to help relieve the stress and boredom of war.

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All those years, I was either gambling or planning to gamble, Kinsman recalled. I needed help. I just didnt know where to turn.

Its a struggle shared by many veterans, specialists say, and the problem is drawing attention, nationally and in Massachusetts. A new report by the General Accounting Office recommends that the military begin screening service members for potential gambling problems, and the states Gaming Commission and Department of Public Health are planning an in-depth study on the prevalence of problem gambling among Massachusetts veterans.

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Problem gambling counselors say veterans, particularly those who served in combat, develop gambling disorders at a substantially higher rate than the general public.

Were trying to figure out a way to look at this and decide what can be done for a population we are very concerned about, said Stephen Crosby, chairman of the Gaming Commission.

Lori Rugle, a psychologist and program director at the University of Maryland Medical Schools Center of Excellence on Problem Gambling who has spent more than 30 years focusing on problem gambling among active duty military personnel and veterans, including 18 years with the Veterans Health Administration, said some veterans feel emotionally numb from trauma theyve experienced in war zones. Gambling becomes a coping mechanism, she said.

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For some veterans, taking risks by gambling makes them feel alive again, she said.

In 2015, University of Massachusetts researchers conducted a statewide survey on gambling and found that respondents in military service since Sept. 11, 2001, reported a particularly high rate of problem gambling.

Although the survey received nearly 10,000 responses, it was not considered extensive enough to establish a direct correlation between veterans and problem gambling. But officials said it raised enough concerns to warrant a more comprehensive study that will be financed by profits from the states nascent casino industry.

Its a problem that definitely needs attention, said Marlene Warner, executive director of the Massachusetts Council on Compulsive Gambling.

The states first casino, Plainridge Park, opened in 2015, and resort casinos are being built in Springfield and Everett.

Keith Whyte, executive director of the National Council on Problem Gambling, said studies suggest that military veterans are twice as likely to experience problem gambling in their lifetime.

Risk factors for gambling addiction include individuals who are male, young, prone to risk-taking, use and abuse alcohol and drugs, and experience stress, depression, and post-traumatic stress disorder all factors known to be more likely among military personnel, he said.

Lane Turner/Globe Staff

Vietnam veteran Bruce Kinsman, who lost about $1,000 a week, stopped gambling in 2006. He attends Gamblers Anonymous meetings to maintain his recovery and encourage others.

In a 2016 government survey of more than 700 veterans, about 4 percent reported problem gambling, twice the generally accepted prevalence among the general population, Whyte said.

The GAO report, released in January, found that only a few hundred active-duty and reserve service members were diagnosed with a gambling disorder or counseled for problem gambling between 2011 and 2015, a tiny fraction of all personnel. Yet the report found that the military isnt doing enough to identify gambling problems and recommended that it incorporate gambling disorder questions in a systematic screening process.

Without proactively asking gambling disorder questions, the military misses the opportunity to identify problem gamblers and provide them with counseling, the report concluded.

The Department of Defense, however, rejected the recommendation due to the disorders low prevalence, according to the report.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Defense said the military can often identify behaviors early through other mental health assessments and provides support to those with gambling addictions.

The Department of Defense operates more than 3,000 slot machines around the world, but not on domestic bases, according to the GAO report. About one-third of the slot machines are in Japan, with hundreds more in Germany and Korea. Profits from the machines almost $100 million a year finance recreational activities, the GAO said.

The machines on military installations and posts overseas provide a controlled alternative to unmonitored online or host-nation gambling venues, and offer a higher payment percentage, thus making them more entertainment-oriented than those found at typical casinos, a spokesman for the Department of Defense said.

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who in 2015 introduced an amendment to a defense spending bill that called for the study, said the report marked an important step to helping members of the military get the right kind of prevention, treatment, and financial counseling for gambling disorders.

With thousands of slot machines on overseas bases generating millions of dollars in revenue, the military needs to tackle problem gambling head-on the men and women who serve our country deserve nothing less, Warren said in a statement.

Rugle said she has lobbied for decades for more extensive screening in the military, with little success.

The military says, We dont hear people talking about it, therefore it cant be too bad, Rugle said. But what questions are they asking?

Kinsman, who lives in Ashland, can name the date in 2006 when he bought his last lottery ticket, his final gambling loss. He said he still attends Gamblers Anonymous meetings to maintain his recovery and encourage others.

Younger veterans dont usually show up, but he knows many are out there, battling the same addiction he did.

They need help, he said.

Read the original:

State plans study on the prevalence of problem gambling among ... - The Boston Globe

Hopefully this article will help you grow your assets.

CYS Investments (NYSE:CYS) is an agency mortgage REIT. Its Q4 2016 book value losses were tremendous. CYS' book value as of September 31, 2016 was $9.79 per common share. As of December 31, 2016 the book value had fallen -$1.46 (or -14.9%) to $8.33 per common share. These losses were largely due to the large interest rate spurt higher in Q4 2016. The yield on the 10 year US Treasury Note rose from 1.59% on September 30, 2016 to 2.44% on December 31, 2016 (+85 bps). Widening basis spreads played a part too. That led to huge losses. It is hard to sustain such losses for very long. Hence it is appropriate to look at the likely future for CYS.

As of this writing on March 3, 2017, the fed funds futures indicate a 79.7% probability of a raise of +25 bps by the FOMC on March 15, 2017. At this point the market is also expecting 3 total fed funds rate raises in FY2017 (so two more after the probable March raise). Trump's first speech to Congress on February 28, 2017 seemed to energize interest rate rises again. His recent statements about huge spending on the US military have also energized fears of inflation. This in turn has caused the yield on the 10 year US Treasury Note to start to rise again (see chart below).

JPMorgan predicted on December 23, 2016 that the yield on the 10 year US Treasury Note might hit 3.5% in 2017. Of course, the above is an outlier prediction that is not necessarily expected to occur. Jeff Gundlach expects the yield to visit 3% in 2017, but he then expects it to revisit 2.25% before turning higher again. BMO is looking for a journey to 2.75% or higher in 2017. A trip above either 2.75% or perhaps 3.0% is expected to be very bad for stocks. In other words, many people will opt for safety at higher yields.

There are many other geopolitical events that could impact bond yields worldwide. The first of those is British PM Theresa May's promise to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by the end of March 2017. This will start the actual process of the UK leaving the EU. Her target date was March 15, 2017, but recent events may have pushed that date back to the end of March 2017. It is unclear what the exact effect of triggering Article 50 will be for the near term. However, the uncertainty associated with leaving the EU for Britain seems likely to push British and other sovereign bond yields upward. Don't forget that Scotland wants to remain in the EU. The Brexit could lead to Scotland leaving the UK. In other words, it could lead to more instability.

France is having a Presidential Election. The first round of this is April 23, 2017. Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon are the two leaders, but Marine Le Pen is expected to grab some of Fillon's followers after a recent scandal involving Fillon's wife. Marine Le Pen is thought to be in favor of France leaving the EU. This could lead to greater volatility both in EU equities markets and in EU bond markets. On March 15, 2017 the entire 150-member Parliament of the Netherlands will be elected. The outcome(s) of that election could determine if the Netherlands later opts for a Nexit (to leave the EU).

The latest round of Greek debt aid negotiations could impact French elections. The IMF is threatening to pull out as one of the funders of a further bailout, if Greek debt is not deemed sustainable by the Greek economy. In other words, if debt "relief" is deemed necessary to longer-term viability of Greek debt, then the IMF wants to see that happen. Other EU countries may have to pay a larger share on an IMF pull out, or they may have to recognize a loss on a write-down (haircut) agreement on Greek debt.

Later in the year on September 23, 2017, German federal elections are scheduled. Angela Merkel could lose power. A lot is up in the air. This is especially true of bond yields in the EU under these very unsettled circumstances. Bond yields in the US are certain to be affected by the EU situation. US bond yields are also subject to the whims and pronouncements of Donald Trump and the Congress.

CYS' portfolio as of Q4E 2016 is depicted in the rightmost chart and table below.

Readers should notice that the percentage of 30-year fixed rate RMBS rose dramatically from 42.9% at Q3E 2016 to 60.3% at Q4E 2016. The percentage of 15-year fixed RMBS fell by roughly the same percentage. This means that CYS' portfolio will be subject to more extension risk going forward. The shorter-duration RMBS usually have less extension risk. However, CYS has announced that they are trying to take advantage of the perhaps overly rapid rise in interest rates. If rates fall from here (or even later in 2017), CYS could profit nicely from the greater amount of investment in 30-year fixed rate RMBS. Depending on exactly when CYS made its changes, these could turn out to be very profitable new positions. If we instead see the 10 year US Treasury Note yield rise to 3.5% as some have indicated is possible in 2017, then this positioning could turn out to be very unprofitable for CYS.

The table below provides some more in-depth data about the same portfolio.

CYS also had some long (and some short) TBA positions as of December 31, 2016 compared to mostly short TBA positions as of September 31, 2016.

The charts below give a more graphic depiction of CYS' Q4E 2016 portfolio.

In the immediate past in Q4 2016, the GAAP Net Loss was -$185.4 million (or -$1.23 per diluted common share). Core Earnings plus Drop Income was $36.2 million ($28.1 million in Core Earnings and $8.1 million in Drop Income). Alternatively this was $0.24 per diluted common share. The Interest Rate Spread Net of Hedge, including Drop Income, was 1.28%. The leverage was 7.06x. Operating expenses were $5.2 million (or 1.26% of average stockholders' equity). Adjusting for a prior period tax charge, the operating expense ratio was 0.85%. The Constant Prepayment Rate was 14.2% for the quarter. CYS' duration was 1.02 as of December 31, 2016. This was up from 0.50 at September 30, 2016. The dividend declared December 12, 2016 was $0.25 per diluted common share. Core Earnings slightly failed to cover this.

CEO Kevin Grant does not believe in Trump's prediction of +4% US GDP growth. He points out that the labor force has been rising very slowly for the last 10 years (about +0.5%/year). The CBO currently projects the labor force as growing at about +0.4% for the next 10 years. The CBO is also estimating a pickup in labor productivity to +1.3%/year for the next 10 years. It has been rising at +0.9%/year for the last 10 years. Given the low labor force growth expectations and the low labor productivity growth expectations, CEO Grant does not expect to see continuous large rate rises that an expectation of +4.0% GDP Growth per year would engender. He is clearly betting on this. If you wish to bet along with him, then CYS may be a decent stock to be in. However, CYS' -$1.46 per diluted common share loss in Q4 2016 amounts to a total return in Q4 2016 of -12.36%, and that is after adding the $0.25 per diluted common share dividend back.

At this time the Trump "magic" has not completely disappeared. That likely means that the rises in yield rates for bonds have not completely disappeared. On top of that the overall market is over priced with a forward 12-month PE for the S&P500 of 17.9 and an average 5 year forward 12-month PE of 15.3. In other words the S&P500 would have to fall -14.5% just to get back to its 5 year average forward 12-month PE for the S&P 500. This means that CYS' share price is more likely to go down in the near term than to go up. The Beta of 0.76 means the stock price should roughly go up and down with the overall market. The share price at the close on March 3, 2017 was $7.84. This is only about -5.9% below the December 31, 2016 book value of $8.33 per diluted common share. CYS lost -14.9% of its book value in Q4 2016. CYS does not appear to be a good risk.

The two-year chart of CYS provides some technical direction for a trade/investment.

The chart above seems to indicate a consolidation phase after a short downtrend. It is unclear technically what is going to happen at this point. If CEO Kevin Grant proves correct, CYS could do moderately well in Q1 2017 and beyond. I have tried to present evidence (see far earlier in this article) that the yield on the 10 year US Treasury may go higher to 2.75% to 3.5% in 2017. Some pundits think a rise to 2.75% will be enough to trigger a large market sell off. Some pundits think such a sell off will only occur at 3.0% or higher. However, most seem to agree that higher yields on US Treasuries are likely to encourage a flight to safety. This is especially true when the dismantling of the EU may be in the offing in the next year or two. Certainly there is a lot of uncertainty about this. There is a lot of uncertainty about Italian banks, regardless of Italy's membership status in the EU. There is uncertainty about the finances of the Greek government. I could go on. I should have made my point by now. CYS is at best a HOLD at this time. I don't like to gamble on this type of stock.

NOTE: Some of the fundamental fiscal data above is from Yahoo Finance.

Good Luck Trading/Investing.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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CYS Is Gambling On The Future; Do You Want To Gamble Too? - Seeking Alpha

Monday, March 06, 2017 2 a.m. CST by John Muir

March is National Problem Gambling Awareness Month. PHOTO: Midwest Communications, Inc.

GREEN BAY, WI (WTAQ) - Roughly 333,000 Wisconsinites struggle with a gambling problem.

That's according to the Wisconsin Council on Problem Gambling's Executive Director Rose Blozinski, who says her organization is aiming to raise awareness for the issue during March's National Problem Gambling Awareness Month.

Blozinski says a gambling problem is similar to drug and alcohol addictions in terms of seratone and dopamine levels in the brain, despite it not involving the ingestion of any substances.

She says untreated addictions can lead to some serious matters such as financial issues due to an inability to pay bills, criminal activity to fund the habit, and even suicide if the person feels overcome by the struggle.

Blozinski has seen gambling addictions force people to file bankruptcy multiple times and also lose jobs through both stealing from an employer and an inability to concentrate on anything but betting.

She says 65% of compulsive gamblers have been known to commit crimes.

In 2016, Blozinski says over 13,000 people called the Wisconsin Council on Problem Gambling's hotline, with a large number of those calls coming in February and March, which she describes as the peak sports betting period due to events like the NFL Super Bowl and NCAA March Madness men's basketball tournament.

When a person calls the hotline, Blozinski says the operator first tries to determine the caller's current condition.

If there is an immediate crisis, the operator attempts to talk the person through the issue and works to convince them that they are not alone in dealing with struggle.

Medical attention is sought if the operator believes the caller may be contemplating suicide.

If it does not seem to be a time-sensative crisis, the operator connects the caller with various resources in the community, such as trained professionals and group therapy meetings.

Blozinski says there are various signs people can look for to determine if a loved one might have a gambling addiction.

She says when a person starts regularly talking about gambling or possessing sheets with betting lines or other gambling paraphernalia out of the blue, it is a sign that an addiction could be developing.

Other signs include a person trying to hide a P.O. Box address that has been established or insisting on always having to be the one to answer a home phone, as those are ways they might be communicating with bookies.

According to Blozinski, gambling addictions can often occur in unison with things like drug and alcohol problems.

Anyone in need of help is encouraged to contact the Wisconsin Council on Problem Gambling by calling 1-800-GAMBLE5 or by texting 920-888-HELP.

People can also register for the organization's annual conference, which will be held March 23-24 at the Osthoff Resort in Elkhart Lake. Registration costs $150 and must be made by March 16. Blozinski says a limited amount of scholarships are still available to help those struggling to pay the conference fee.

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March Highlights Gambling Addiction Struggles | News | 1330 ... - WHBL Sheboygan

South Koreas gambling industry continues to defy the odds, despite the economic downturn the country is facing.

For the second year in a row, the gambling sector grew 7.7 percent to reach KRW20.3 trillion (USD17.6 billion) in 2016 from a year earlier, according to The National Gambling Control Commission. The figures include revenues from Gangwon Land, cycle racing, horse racing, boat racing and sports promotion voting right system, or Sports Toto.

The nations casinos earned the lions share of 2016s gambling revenue, reporting KRW28.04 billion (USD24.21 million)a jump from the KRW20.5 trillion reported in 2015. Foreigners-only casinos contributed KRW1.2 trillion, while state-run Gangwon Land reported KRW1.7 trillion in sales.

Sales of lottery tickets also grew 9.3 percent on-year to reach KRW3.9 trillion as lottery participation among those making less than KRW2 million (USD1,700) per month nearly doubled to 10.2%.

Meanwhile the Korea Racing Authority earned KRW7.7 trillion from its horse-racing business, up 0.2 percent from a year earlier. The Korea Sports Promotion Foundation saw cycling race sales gain 1.7 percent on-year to a four-year high of KRW1.9 trillion.

Experts chalked up the domestic gambling industrys boom time to the growing number of people who are turning to speculative games amid the economic downturn.

Due to economic depression, people tend to dream of making a fortune at one stroke, Kwak Geum-joo, a psychology professor at Seoul National University, told Yonhap news agency. It is necessary to boost social mobility in order to reduce such sentiments.

South Korea currently has 17 casinos, but the countrys nationals are only allowed to gamble at one of themGangwon Land, located 150 kilometres southeast of Seoul in Kangwon province.

By April, South Koreas casino sector will get additional boosts with the opening of Paradise City. Jointly-owned casino operator Paradise Co Ltd and Japanese pachinko operator Sega Sammy Holdings Inc, Paradise City is said to be the first large-scale, foreigner-only gaming resort in the country.

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South Korea gambling revenue tops $17B in 2016 - CalvinAyre.com

Welcome MMA bettors, speculators, and gambling lurkers! Were back at it again for another week of comprehensive gambling analysis from your friends at MMAFighting.com. This weekend is a little less exciting without Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson, but we will valiantly trudge forward regardless.

For those of you who are new here or those who have forgotten, this aims to be an exhaustive preview of the fights, the odds, and my own personal breakdown of where you can find betting value. The number after the odds on each fighter is the probability of victory that those odds imply (so Woodley at +150 means he should win the fight 40 percent of the time). If you think he wins more often than the odds say, you should bet it because there's value in the line.

All stats come from FightMetric and all the odds are from Best Fight Odds. Net Value means how much money you would have made if you bet $100 on that fighter in every one of his/her fights that odds could be found for. Doubly as always, I'm trying to provide the most thorough guide I can for those who want to legally bet or who just enjoy following along. If you are a person who chooses to gamble, only do so legally, responsibly, and at your own risk.

Now with all that out of the way, lets go.

Breakdown

Tyron Woodley is a hyper-athletic wrestle boxer who focuses on a stripped down power punching game. The power punching is a legitimate strategy as Woodley is one of the hardest hitters in the division and quicker than just about everyone, allowing him to close distance and unexpectedly land his money shot, the right hand. Woodley also has a right kick equally as thudding as his right hand and he mixes the two effectively. Beyond that though, Woodley doesn't have much to speak of on the feet as far as variety, rarely using his left side at all. Being extremely reliant on his power side hasn't stopped him from being effective though as he has a myriad of feints which allow him to sneak in punches and he also does a good job of mixing up his speeds.

Woodleys secondary offense, and arguably his most potent, is his explosive wrestling game. On the feet, he pressures forward which allows him to work into the clinch where his physicality and head control allow him to grind with great effect. A former two-time All-American, Woodley still has the instincts and skill of a high level wrestler as well as a solid power double leg, but he isn't an especially great shot takedown threat. He is however, a phenomenal defensive wrestler and when he does secure takedowns, he's ferocious with his ground striking.

Stephen Thompson is an elite level striker whose game revolves around distance management and timing. He prefers to operate at the very end of striking ranging where he can land a variety of kicks and he uses excellent footwork and movement to maintain that range. When a fighter closes the distance on him, he lands punishing straight counter punches and then angles out well to reset.

The rest of Thompson's game is built to keep him in the zone he wants to operate in. He's a strong clinch fighter with good footwork and leverage and the ability to disengage quickly. He's also a very strong defensive wrestler as his distance management and angles make it really difficult to get a clean look at taking him down. Thompson is a better version of Lyoto Machida: a high level karateka and kickboxer, but one who isn't as single-minded in his desire to counterstrike which allows him to throw at a good pace and win rounds much more decisively.

When these two first fought, Thompson was lucky to walk away with a draw, winning the tight rounds but suffering the force of Woodleys predatory offense in the others and that dynamic likely remains the same here. Thompsons offense is built to score points and win rounds much more effectively than Woodleys. Woodleys offense is built to win fights in violent fashion.

The question for this fight is who will make the biggest adjustments from their first contest? Woodley barely used his wrestling at all in their first encounter and the one time he did take Thompson down, he delivered serious punishment. On the other hand, Thompson threw much less volume than he normally does and, if he can be more aware of the power punching of Woodley, looks to have an edge here. Ultimately, this fight is razor close one. Im picking Thompson to win because, in the aggregate, I think he will win more fights by virtue of consistent offense. That being said, Woodley is the more dangerous finisher and hes being undervalued at the books right now. I suggest betting Woodley at any plus number. Also, Woodley-Thompson ends in a draw is +5500 which implies a less than 2% probability of occurring. Considering the dynamic of the fight (Woodley having more potent offense, Thompson winning more rounds) that seems like it is far more likely to occur and thus I also think a small bet on Fight Goes to a Draw is decent value.

Breakdown

Lando Vannata is the new darling of UFC fans and with good reason. He is a legitimate prospect with a funky, forward thinking game backed up by a lot of talent. Hes the product of years of Brandon Gibson training and hes the purest example of that lineage of fighter. He has excellent footwork and timing for a guy so young in his career and he operates a flashy, off kilter attack that causes a lot of problems for his opponents. Hes got serious power and operates at an extremely high pace. That pace also makes him hittable but his defense is pretty solid and mitigates a lot of the worst of it. Vannata is also is a decent wrestler when the occasion calls for it but mostly he prefers his fluid striking offense.

David Teymur is also a hot shot prospect with a striking background, being very accomplished on the European Muay Thai circuit. He prefers to work at long range, firing off a sharp jab and thudding kicks. He follows these up with a powerful straight left hand that can turn off the lights his opponents. He is also an excellent defensive wrestler, sporting a perfect takedown defense so far in the UFC. When opponents fail to take him down, they often wind up in the clinch where he frames well and throws good elbows. His biggest weakness is his defense though and his hittability is cause for concern against a banger like Vannata.

This is a banger of a fight between a clean, traditional striker and a dervish of creativity. The question becomes who can impose their game plan on the other. I dont expect either fighter to be able to run away with this one, but ultimately I do think Vannatas range of offense is the difference here. He can compete (and win) against Teymur at range and his unpredictability gives him a slight edge there and his wrestling and timing give him a viable secondary option to win the fight. The pick is Vannata by KO late in the fight, but that being said, the odds here are a mile off and Teymur is worth a bet at this rate.

Breakdown

Rashad Evans hasnt fought in almost a year due to medical problems but now hes back and making his middleweight debut against. Dan Kelly. Evans is an explosive athlete, light on his feet, with accurate, powerful combinations when he chooses to throw. That caveat is important though because Evans often will sit back doing nothing, losing rounds to inferior fighters strictly on the basis of not putting actual offense together.

Evans best skill set is his wrestling. A former D-1 collegiate wrestler, Evans can finish a variety of takedowns with authority but he does his best work off a blast double leg. Once on top, he has excellent control and can pound opponents out with aggression. Hes also an excellent defensive wrestler but hes not much a submission artist, having attempted none despite his many years in the promotion.

Dan Kelly is a judoka by trade and a good one, having competed in the Olympics four separate times. Hes also an acceptable striker, especially on the counter. Hes slow and plodding though and his body is shop worn from years as a high-level athlete.

Evans is a former champion and a guy who, when at his best, could be competitive against almost anyone in the world. The problem is, Evans hasnt looked anything close to his best in years and at this point it seems like hes on his way out of the fight game. Kelly is surging but hes also almost 40 and not close to the level of competitor Evans was. Honestly, I have no idea whats going to happen here. Im picking Evans by decision, but theres no confidence in anything and thus no bet.

Breakdown

Alistair Overeem is looking to rebound from his loss to current heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic by taking on Mark Hunt in a matchup between former K-1 World Grand Prix champions. Overeem is still one of the most athletic heavyweights on the planet and that athleticism is backed by a deep well of knowledge and technique. Lately, he has opted to use a stick and move game plan where he can employ power strikes at opportunities of his choosing. His grappling is a fall back option for him and a very dangerous one at that. Hes punishing from top position and a sneaky good submission threat.

Mark Hunt is old for the division at 42, but despite his age and physique, hes still a fairly good athlete. Hunt is almost entirely a striker and hes one of the best in the division. He has an excellent understanding rhythm and he uses that to set up his power punches, particularly his left hand which can end anyones night in a hurry. Outside of striking, Hunt is a good defensive wrestler and surprisingly good on top when he winds up there. Hes also shored up a lot of his submission defense liabilities.

This is a close fight between two very high-level strikers past their primes. Overeem has more tools in the box, but Hunts focused striking game figures to give Overeem and his suspect chin a lot of problems. If Overeem can maintain a focused game plan of staying either all the way out or clinching, he should win. But thats a tough task against a crafty striker like Hunt. I think Hunt eventually lands the left hand that puts Overeem in a bad spot and from there its academic. The pick is Hunt by KO, and I like a bet on him as well.

Amanda Cooper (+100/50%) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (-120/55%)

Cooper is a quick paced striker with good footwork who also has an active submission game off of her back. Calvillo is a good athlete with strong wrestling and excellent positional control on the ground. This is a two outcome fight: either Cooper keeps it standing and wins with volume or Calvillo takes her down and wins through grappling. Calvillo is coming in on short notice here but she is the more physical, powerful fighter and she can likely get the fight to the floor, take the back, and finish it. The pick is Calvillo but she is making her UFC debut so you should pass on betting this.

Marcin Tybura (-160/62%) vs. Luis Henrique (+140/42%)

Tybura is a well-rounded fighter who keeps a high pace on the feet, throwing powerful punches and kicks. Hes even better as a top position grappler and hes a good enough wrestler to get the fight to the ground more often than not. Henrique is a jiu-jitsu player at heart but one with power and an explosive takedown game to back it up. On top, he is punishing and a solid submission hunter. Henrique is the youngest fighter in the heavyweight division and hes athletic enough to expect big improvements between fights for him. This fight is tougher to call than usual, but I think Tyburas more advanced, voluminous striking will carry the day. The pick is Tybura by late TKO.

Mirsad Bektic (-800/89%) vs. Darren Elkins (+550/15%)

Bektic is probably the best prospect in MMA at the moment. He is a blend of athleticism, power, and skill that portends greatness and future title contention. He is sharp on the feet and works in combination but he really excels in explosive takedowns and vicious ground and pound. Elkins is one of the best examples of a grinder in MMA. He can do everything but what he wants to do is stifle his opponents offense with clinches, takedowns, and control. Straight up, the odds are off here. Bektic is going to win but Elkins is the kind of durable, rugged fighter than can upend the rise of overconfident prospects in a hurry. I wont suggest betting on Elkins because its likely a losing bet but there is some value in his line. All that said, I think Bektic marches on, winning a dominant decision and betting Bektic by decision at -105 is actually a very attractive option.

Iuri Alcantara (-105/51%) vs. Luke Sanders (-115/53%)

Alcantara is a well-rounded fighter who is super dynamic. He has power on the feet but his best skill is grappling where he has strong takedowns and excellent transitions into submissions. Sanders is a hot prospect who can also do a bit of everything, excels in transition, and is a dynamic finisher. Alcantara has a size advantage but Sanders is a bit more technical on the feet and five years younger. Also, Alcantara is known for cardio issues and Sanders is tough enough to survive any early onslaught and take the later rounds. The pick is Sanders by decision and I like him for a bet so long as he stays under -120.

Mark Godbeer (-150/60%) vs. Daniel Spitz (+130/43%)

Godbeer is a striker by trade who mixes punches and kicks but doesnt have much else to fall back on. Spitz is a large heavyweight who likes to operate at range behind his jab but does his best work as a grappler. That should be enough to win the day here against Godbeer who has shown an unfortunate combination of being both willing to grapple and not exceedingly good at it. The pick is Spitz by submission and while the first rule of MMA betting (dont gamble on low level heavyweight fights) would normally apply here, the idea that Godbeer is a 60% favorite almost makes me want to throw the rule book out the window.

Tyson Pedro (-145/59%) vs. Paul Craig (+125/44%)

Pedro is a big light heavyweight with some athletic promise. He throws sharp punches but mostly hes a grappler with good takedowns and heavy control and submissions. Craig is an aggressive, come forward fighter who fires off punch-kick combinations and isnt afraid to pull guard where he uses his long limbs to snake in submissions from his back. On the feet, Craigs volume might give him the edge but I expect Pedros physicality and wrestling to keep this fight on the ground. Craig is slick there but likely not slick enough to catch Pedro who excels with top pressure. The pick is Pedro by TKO late in the second round but I would pass on betting this.

Albert Morales (-130/57%) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (+110/48%)

Morales is young, athletic fighter, equal parts skill and aggression. He can counter slickly but is also prone to bursts of wild offense. He can also scramble well but his cardio is questionable. Soukhamthath is a striker who fights well at range behind his jab or in close with knees. This probably plays out as a striking match and in that case Morales power, speed, and volume will likely carry the day over the somewhat tepid Soukhamthath. The pick is Morales by KO in the middle of the fight, and if you want to bet this, I wouldnt do so but I also wouldnt blame you.

That's all folks. Enjoy the fights everyone and good luck to those who need it. If you've got any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @JedKMeshew

(Editor's note: All of this advice is for entertainment purposes only.)

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UFC 209 odds, gambling guide - MMA Fighting