Category Archives: Donald Trump

LONDON Volodymyr Zelenskyy has invited Donald Trump to Kyiv, but on one condition.

The Ukrainian president said the former U.S. president would be welcome to visit him in the capital as long as Trump is able to stop the war with Russia within 24 hours, as he once promised.

Trump has boasted that, if he were president, he could end the war immediately by insisting Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin agree to a settlement, insisting he has a good relationship with both leaders. Trump, during his political career, has repeatedly gushed over Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 that has claimed tens of thousands of lives.

Yes please, Donald Trump I invite you to Ukraine, to Kyiv, Zelenskyy said, in an interview set to be aired Friday evening with U.K. broadcaster Channel 4 News. If you can stop the war during 24 hours I think it will be enough to come to Kyiv, on any day I am here.

Zelenskyy added that, if Trump does have a formula for ending the war, he wants to know what it is.

Although Ukraine is anxious to cultivate ties with the Republican front-runner and his allies ahead of Novembers U.S. presidential election, Zelenskyy has every reason to be a wary of man who has little appetite for continued support of Ukraines resistance against Russian invasion.

Indeed, Trump has lavished praise on Putin for being smart by occupying a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people while only taking a relatively minor sanctions hit.

While in the White House, Trump was also impeached by the House of Representatives after it alleged he pressured Zelenskyy to pursue politically motivated investigations that might hurt Joe Bidens White House bid, just as Kyiv sought more missiles from the United States.

The former president was acquitted by the Senate.

Trump now leads Biden in polling for multiple key battleground states, and MAGA Republicans on Capitol Hill are feuding over efforts to get a new tranche of Ukraine aid through the House of Representatives.

In a speech after his crushing victory in the Republican Iowa caucus this week, Trump also claimed that Russia would not have attacked if he were in the White House, as he and Putin get along very well.

Speaking in Davos earlier this week at the World Economic Forum, Zelenskyy tried to brush off fears about a plunge in military funding most of which comes to Ukraine from the U.S. if Trump returns, arguing that one man cannot change the whole nation.

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Zelenskyy invites Trump to Kyiv POLITICO - POLITICO Europe

When I asked him what it would take for him even to vote for Biden, Hutchinson told me, Thats not going to happen.

But if Hutchinson isnt gettable for Biden in November, Democrats are counting on the idea that a lot of other people like him might be traditionalist Republicans and independent voters who find Trump intolerable and who, as many independents did in 2020, could be persuaded to cast a ballot for Biden instead.

The 73-year-old former member of Congress and U.S. attorney had pitched himself to voters as an experienced, conservative alternative to Trump, saying he would not support somebody whos been convicted of a serious felony or who is disqualified under our Constitution.

But hed also seen first-hand in Iowa this week how far that got him. When he dropped out of the primary after the caucuses driving back to Arkansas, as he put it he acknowledged my message of being a principled Republican with experience and telling the truth about the current front runner did not sell in Iowa.

Even Hutchinson, when I called him up, would not say unequivocally that he wont vote for Trump only that he expects Trump to be convicted before November, and that he will not vote for a convicted nominee. But he does think that his sunny brand of conservatism was still the future of his party, and that Trumps hold on its base will loosen, maybe even in the coming year.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

What did Zients say to you when he reached out?

He just simply said the comment was totally out of line, and he apologized for it. And that was pretty much his communication. Of course, my response is, Im used to that in the political arena, even though it was uncalled for. And I said, It was awfully gracious of you to call, and I appreciate it. And that was pretty much the end of it until the White House communications director released that information, and then it became a little bit bigger story.

Why do you think it was important to the White House to let that be known?

I take it at face value that they thought it was wrong, and they wanted to make sure I understood that it was wrong, and they didnt have anything to do with it. Now, on a more personal level, I know Jeff. I worked with him when I was head of the National Governors Association and he was the head of the coronavirus task force for the president. So, weve had a working relationship. So, all of that mightve played into it. I dont know. I think we just have to take it at face value.

The fact that the White House responded to it is a good thing. It took, not ownership of it, but took steps to correct it. I think this wound up being a good moment for America because after that was made public, and then I had to respond to it, and obviously they apologized, I accepted that, and we moved on. And I said, We can fight for our beliefs without demonizing each other. And the response to that has been extraordinary, and I think its a good moment for American politics that youve got two people on opposite sides of the political spectrum, but have respect and can showcase that. Thats a good thing.

You endorsed Trump in 2020. What would it take for you to vote for Zients boss, for Biden, this year?

Thats not going to happen. No, Ive made it clear all along. I ran for president believing that Bidens policy is not the best for America. Im not voting for Joe Biden for president.

If Trump is the Republican nominee this year, what will you do?

Well, I dont want to get ahead of the game, because Im hopeful that there will be a different nominee, and I think it really depends upon what happens in New Hampshire in less than a week. Ive said that Im not going to support a nominee who has a felony conviction, and I expect someone other than Donald Trump to be the nominee. Although after Iowa, that could be called into question, but I hope thats the case.

Do you plan to endorse a primary opponent?

Not at this point. Well see how it develops, but not at this point. I want to give a chance for the dust to settle and for Nikki [Haley] to make her case in New Hampshire. And since Ron [DeSantis] has apparently pulled out, she should have a full opportunity to do that.

When we spoke a little less than a year ago in California, you told me you thought your lane in the party was getting bigger, the non-Trump not the anti-Trump the non-Trump lane of the party, and that people were ready to move on. Given what you saw in Iowa, what happened?

Well, what happened is people bought into Trumps grievances and anger and a belief that hes been unfairly persecuted. So, that dynamic has changed and strengthened Donald Trump, and I would say thats probably the key factor right there.

Do you see any prospect of the party reversing that?

I make the case that as we progress through this year, that voters are going to take a fresh look at the facts. Theyre going to think through whether he can win in November. And so, yes, I think time is not in Donald Trumps favor. Time is not in Donald Trumps favor. Thats why hes working so hard to wrap his nomination up quickly, putting pressure on everyone to get in his camp, to make sure the RNC is doing its job and paving the way. And if he cant wrap it up quickly, its the kind of thing that can unravel on him.

Do you think it could unravel quickly enough to prevent him from becoming the nominee? And how quickly would it have to unravel for that to happen?

Well, thats the problem. His strategy is, wrap up the nomination quickly. And then secondly, delay the court cases and accountability as long as possible. And thus far hes been successful in that.

I really believe that New Hampshire is close to a make-or-break for keeping the nomination out of Donald Trumps hands. Because if Donald Trump wins significantly in New Hampshire like he did in Iowa, then youve got Nevada, and Nevadas in his camp already. Theyve moved to a caucus. And then youve got South Carolina, where he leads, and there wont be momentum for Nikki at that point even going into South Carolina. And then youve got Super Tuesday. So, New Hampshires pretty important to reverse the trend that were on right now.

You said in your exit statement that your message of being a principled Republican with experience and telling the truth about the current frontrunner did not sell in Iowa. Do you think that it sells anywhere in the modern Republican Party?

Yes. The truth about Trump will prove important in the long term, even though it proved detrimental in the short term. And I think itll be next year. But its critically important that someone sound the alarm. And clearly that wasnt a message that Iowans that supported Donald Trump wanted to hear, and it didnt move them. I think down the road, it will have more impact. Obviously, Im not in that Republican primary anymore, but those warnings that I articulated will be more important and meaningful as this year goes on.

Do you have a future in this party?

Well, the answer is yes. But its interesting. On caucus night, I actually spoke to one of the largest caucuses, in Clive. And I was followed by Donald Trump, although I didnt know he was following me. But as I made my case, I made my normal stump speech, but I ended it by saying, I get asked the question a lot by the media as to whether theres room in the Republican Party for a Reagan Republican who is principled and applies those principles to the future. And I ask you tonight to send a message that, yes, there is room in the Republican Party for a principled Reagan conservative. Well, obviously that didnt win them over. So, the answer is, I dont know.

But clearly, when youre looking at Trump getting 51 percent of the vote, obviously theres 49 percent of the Republican base that is looking for an alternative, that believes in broader principles and character being an important factor as to the presidency of the United States. So, Im hopeful. Im always hopeful.

What do you think needs to happen for you or a Republican like you to be more successful next time?

Well, this year and I think theres a significant chance it will happen that the Republican Party will have to abandon Donald Trump because they will recognize that he is harmful to the body politic, that he will ruin our chances of winning. Hes detrimental to our principles and our cause.

Looking back, are you glad you did this? Was it worth it?

Oh, a hundred percent. I mean, first, youve asked me questions that draw out some negativity. But listen, I love the people of Iowa. I think that they are clearly wanting our democracy to work. They want solutions. They want to see Washington work, and theyre committed, and they pay attention. And this has been one of the greatest experiences of my life, both campaigning in New Hampshire and Iowa, and across the country. And so, people give me optimism that in the end, theyre going to make good decisions. And the burden falls on me to make my case. We didnt make it effectively. But if you ask me, Am I glad I did it? Absolutely. Would I change anything? I certainly wouldnt change my message. Theres some tactical things I think I could do better. But I spoke my convictions and the truth, and that still counts in America.

Do you think you might run again?

I would be very, very doubtful that that would happen. I would say that Im not burned out. I have an extraordinary amount of energy. Im going to get out and work and hopefully replenish the till, and rebuild our family budget. I mean, all of those are priorities for me. But if anything, having run this race for president makes me more committed and more determined to try to correct things.

I remember you saying at the top of our conversation that you would not vote for Joe Biden. Did you also say you wouldnt vote for Trump?

No, I said I would not vote for a convicted felon.

If hes not convicted, would you vote for him?

I cant imagine that circumstance, but I do expect to support the Republican nominee. Ive said that publicly. Ive always supported the Republican nominee, and if that changes down the road, Ill let you know.

You expect Trump to be convicted this year, before the November election?

Yes, yes. I do. As you can see, hes being successful in postponing some of these trials. And so, I dont know when thats going to be. It could even be after the convention, but what a mess were going to have then.

So, you wont support a convicted nominee. But if Trump is not convicted, then could you support him?

I would not commit at this point to support him. Youre asking me a lot of questions as we dont know how this plays out. And, again, I do believe that the Republican base is going to swing back to an alternative position. I just dont know when thats going to be. Still hopeful therell be somebody other than Donald Trump as the nominee. Well cross those bridges when we get to them.

If the Republican Party doesnt do that this year, do you think that will happen in the future?

Yes. Itll just be a longer curve. But the pendulum does swing and, and what Donald Trump offers fighting for his personal ego versus the common good is not sustainable in our democracy. And so, yeah, I believe it will swing back. Its just a question of when.

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'New Hampshire Is Close to a Make-or-Break for Keeping the Nomination Out of Donald Trump's Hands.' - POLITICO

Former President Donald Trump speaks speaks to supporters in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on January 17, 2024. TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images hide caption

Former President Donald Trump speaks speaks to supporters in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, on January 17, 2024.

Former President Donald Trump has a big event Friday in Concord, N.H., his third event in a week-long sprint of almost back-to-back rallies ahead of the state's decisive Tuesday primary.

Trump has been in the Granite State almost every night since Iowa, touting his 30-point victory in Iowa's caucuses. Now, as he looks to the general election, he's counting on New Hampshire's voters to help him put the election to bed.

"If you want to defend your honor, and if you want to defeat the radical left Democrats and save America, you must vote for your favorite president of all time, Donald J. Trump," he told cheering supporters in Atkinson, New Hampshire.

But first he needs to take out his top rival in the state: Nikki Haley, who he's claiming is not "tough enough" for the job.

Haley came in third in Iowa after Ron DeSantis. But Trump isn't going after the Florida governor. DeSantis has polled quite low in New Hampshire so far, while Haley enjoys growing support, now within striking distance of Trump's numbers.

That's why he's focusing on his former ambassador to the United Nations: because she's polling so well.

According to the FiveThirtyEight average of polls, Trump leads New Hampshire at 47% vs. 34% for Haley, and just over 5% for DeSantis.

At the rally in Atkinson, Trump accused Haley of artificially boosting her numbers.

"As you know, Nikki Haley in particular is counting on the Democrats and liberals to infiltrate the Republican primary," he said, likely referring to the registered Democrats who have changed party affiliation.

Haley has been trying to hit back, accusing Trump of throwing a "temper tantrum." And, in a new ad, she's painted Trump as having the same baggage as Biden.

"The two most disliked politicians in America. Trump and Biden," the narrator reads.

The tit-for-tat is just another sign of how critical the Tuesday primary is.

"It's the Trump and Haley show in New Hampshire this week," quipped Jim Merrill, a veteran Republican strategist in New Hampshire. "Unlike Iowa, there's a real contest going on here, and it's not a contest between second and third place."

He says Haley has an uphill climb, but she could win. She needs to gets the lion's share of supporters for Chris Christie the top Trump critic who dropped out of the race, Merrill said.

She also needs a big chunk of independent voters who can choose to vote for either party in New Hampshire's semi-open primary.

Trump World is already acting like he's the nominee and wants to move on.

"Voters are better off with Trump financially," Jason Miller, a campaign adviser told NPR, echoing one of the campaign's main arguments.

Trump will continue to dominate in New Hampshire like he did in Iowa after winning almost every category of Republicans in the Iowa caucuses, he said.

"Whether it be the closer to the population centers, whether it be more rural, whether it be college educated, whether it be those who do not have college degrees," Miller said. "Every possible demographic you can think of, President Trump did very well."

Republican presidential candidate and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley talks with people at the historic Robie Country Store on January 18, 2024 in Hooksett, New Hampshire. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images hide caption

Republican presidential candidate and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley talks with people at the historic Robie Country Store on January 18, 2024 in Hooksett, New Hampshire.

Still, what makes New Hampshire so harder to predict and to poll - is that no one knows what its large portion of undeclared voters are going to do, said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research.

"They could be absolutely disgusted with their choices by Tuesday and say it doesn't matter who they pick," said McHenry, who grew up in New Hampshire. "Or they could say, 'I've absolutely had it with Donald Trump and I'm going to, you know, to walk through a blizzard in my bare feet to get to the polls and vote that day.' "

But Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire Republican chairman, says the energy just isn't there for anyone not named Trump.

He argues Haley and DeSantis have not gotten nearly the size crowds that past Republican nominees, like John McCain and Mitt Romney received.

"New Hampshire is the last, best opportunity for someone to show that the party wants to move on from him," he said.

But, what he sees on the ground, is a Republican base that doesn't want to move on from Trump, at all.

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Trump's pitch in New Hampshire is more about Nikki Haley as he hopes for big win - NPR

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OF THE MANY differences between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, perhaps the easiest to quantify has to do with tax policy. Mr Biden has long pledged to raise taxes on both the wealthy and companies. Mr Trumps main legislative achievement from his presidency was a tax-cut package in 2017. Unsurprisingly, many corporate bosses prefer Mr Trump on taxes. The big economic question is whether they are being short-sighted and overlooking Americas fiscal health, which they also profess to care about.

When Mr Trump was elected in 2016, net federal debt was about 75% of GDP. When he left office in 2021, it was 97% of GDP. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts that it is on track to hit an eye-watering 181% three decades from now. At that level the governments annual interest payments are expected to exceed its combined spending on national defence, education and highways. That raises the risk of a financial crisishardly an ideal environment for business.

Critics of Mr Trump point to the debt trajectory on his watch as evidence of fiscal mismanagement and warn he would make things worse if elected for a second term. Many of his tax cuts are set to expire at the end of 2025 (the individual-income-tax rate for the highest earners will revert to 39.6% from 37%, for instance). If Mr Trump returns to office, he will try to make the cuts permanent. The CBO estimates that this would add $350bn or so to the deficit annually over the next decade, equivalent to 1% of GDP (see chart).

Yet this line of criticism misses two important points. First, the accumulation of debt under Mr Trump largely stemmed from the stimulus launched soon after covid-19 struck, which countered some of the economic drag from the pandemic. The comparison is unflattering for Mr Biden: he expanded the stimulus in 2021 when there was less need for extra fiscal support from the government, and this additional spending helped stoke inflation.

Second, it is not enough to look at taxes alone. The interaction between taxation and growth lies at the heart of debt sustainability. The overriding driver of our fiscal problems is that we dont have enough growth, says Stephen Moore, who helped design Mr Trumps tax cuts in 2017. We want to bring jobs and capital here, and yes, we can grow out of this. Many economists dismiss such talk as hyperbole. After all, in the 2016 election, Mr Trump vowed that deregulation and tax cuts would unleash a torrent of economic growth; in reality Americas growth rate ticked up just slightly in the two years after his tax law went into effect, before covid erupted. But this extra activity did help to boost Americas fiscal revenues, offsetting some of the cost of the tax cuts. Thinking you should tax away to a lower deficit is misleading, says Tomas Philipson, an economic adviser in Mr Trumps administration.

Mr Bidens approach offers a counterpoint. He has called for a range of tax increases, including raising the corporate rate from 21% to 28%. That may be counterproductive, says Erica York of the Tax Foundation, a think-tank. Ms York and her colleagues estimate that Mr Bidens tax proposals would lower Americas debt-to-GDP ratio but also shrink the economy by 1.3%, whereas Mr Trumps tax cuts would, if permanent, push up debts but expand long-run GDP by 1.2%. It is not a simple trade-off either way.

A true clean-up of Americas finances would require reforms to big social programmes, especially income support for pensioners and state-provided medical insurance, which together account for nearly half of federal spending. Here, Mr Trump and Mr Biden look indistinguishable. Both are silent on serious changes to these programmes, because both are well aware how deeply unpopular any cuts would be.

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Donald Trump's tax cuts would add to American growthand debt - The Economist

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GO WOKE, GO broke, intone Republicans fed up with socially aware American firms. But it is the politicians who are paying for their own ideological zeal. In 2000 and 2004 corporate political-action committees (PACs) gave them twice as much as they gave Democrats. After divvying up donations nearly evenly between the two parties in 2008 (perhaps thanks to a charismatic newcomer named Barack Obama), in 2012 and 2016 they favoured Republican candidates again, by a factor of nearly two to one. Company bosses, too, preferred conservatives. A paper in 2019 found that between 2000 and 2017 CEOs of firms in the S&P 1500 index directed two-thirds of their giving to the right.

In the 2019-20 election cycle, by contrast, corporate PAC donations to Republicans fell by a quarter, compared with four years earlier. One explanation is that donors were unhappy with the partys populist shift away from trade, immigration and international co-operation. After Mr Trumps supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6th 2021, dozens of firms halted donations to Republican lawmakers who voted against certifying Joe Bidens 2020 election win. According to Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of the Yale School of Management, more than three-quarters of these firms were still withholding such donations a year later.

Preliminary figures suggest this will be another disappointing year for Republican fundraisers. Data from the Federal Election Commission show that in the first 11 months of this presidential cycle Republicans got a third less from corporate PACs than in 2020 and half as much as in 2016 (see chart). Comcast, a cable operator, and Northrop Grumman, an armsmaker, have cut their cheques by a third since 2020. ExxonMobil, an oil giant, has halved donations. Top-spending trade groups, such as the National Beer Wholesalers Association and the National Association of Realtors, gave Republicans less than four years ago.

The unspent money may not go to Democrats. According to End Citizens United, an advocacy group, 73 mostly Democratic congressmen have sworn off corporate PACs entirely, up from 56 five years ago. America Inc is always looking for friends in Washington. In the post-Trump era, it is finding itself alone.

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Donald Trump's populism is turning off corporate donors - The Economist

To Donald J. Trumps campaign, his win in the Iowa caucuses by a record 30-point margin was a sign he would steamroll to the nomination. To hear Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida tell it, the result was actually a sign of the former presidents weakness.

Mr. DeSantis began offering on Friday a public version of private commentary he has been making: that Mr. Trumps failure to get much more than roughly 50 percent of the vote during caucuses with the lowest turnout in decades indicates an inability to galvanize the Republican base in a way that signals danger in a general election.

Speaking at a news conference outside the site of a planned debate that was canceled after Nikki Haley, a former United Nations ambassador under Mr. Trump, said she would not take part without her former boss onstage, Mr. DeSantis declared that Mr. Trumps performance in Iowa was a warning sign for the party in November.

Its not that it was a weak result to win the caucus, Mr. DeSantis said. Its a question of what does that portend for November and how the Republican base is going to be energized or not energized.

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Why DeSantis Says Trump's Romp in Iowa Is Actually a Sign of His Weakness - The New York Times

Nikki Haley as VP would be an establishment neocon fantasy and a MAGA nightmare, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) told me. On Day One she would convert the Naval Observatory into an anti-Trump, resistance headquarters, undermining him at every step.

The Stop Nikki effort is so forceful because Trumps decision will go to the heart of the partys debate over its identity.

Theres the obvious the term-limited Trump selecting an Oval Office heir but its not only succession issues thats sparking the Haley pushback.

Her selection as vice presidential nominee also amounts to a proxy war in the equally ferocious intra-party clash over foreign policy. Republican hawks see Haley as one of their own while GOP non-interventionists such as Gaetz are appalled that Trump would consummate his nomination by picking a Republican whose national security views are anathema to America First devotees.

Look no further than the presidents eldest son, perhaps the loudest opponent of Haleys selection, who immediately followed her on stage Monday at a Des Moines caucus site and blistered her foreign policy worldview.

Nikki Haley wants to be in every war the world has to offer, said Donald Trump Jr., vowing that with his father as president again America will not send the next generation to die in yet another never-ending war.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump walks on stage at his caucus night victory event in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 15, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

The preemptive war against Haley, as it were, is not lost on the former presidents closest hawkish ally.

The same people who dont like her dont like me, said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), calling the Haley opponents isolationists in MAGAworld.

Which gets at why her selection has already set off such an internal uproar its about power. And namely whether Trump should cede any by offering concessions to the GOP traditionalists hes poised to vanquish yet again.

After a term in which he was constrained by so many of the old establishment Republicans in the White House and Congress and, in the eyes of his loyalists, betrayed in his hour of need by his previous vice president, it would be borderline masochistic to set himself up again.

To the old hands in Trumps orbit, elevating Haley would be an even more significant blow than the Mike Pence pick in 2016.

It recalls the last movement leader of the right who thwarted the old guard only to invite them into his inner circle. Ronald Reagan, aiming to unify the GOP, not only selected the moderate George H.W. Bush as his running mate but also made Bushs close friend, James A. Baker III, White House chief of staff.

Which is not to say that Trump would similarly bring on Haleys closest adviser, Jon Lerner. However, Trumps inner circle knows Lerner, a political consultant who moonlighted as a U.N. official when Haley was there, is among the most committed hawks in her aviary. And Im told that the GOPs tilt away from supporting Ukraine and broader drift toward isolationism has horrified Lerner, who rarely speaks in public.

Some Republicans close to Trump find it highly unlikely he would choose Haley. Yet Graham believes the former president is open to joining forces with his most formidable rival.

How open Trump is to such an alliance, however, may be shaped by the next weeks of the race. Its one thing for Haley to intensify her criticism of Trump between now and next Tuesdays New Hampshire primary. More difficult for the relationship to survive would be an ugly, month-long battle for South Carolina.

I think he would pick her if he thought it would help him win, Graham told me. But the longer it goes and the more scar tissue accumulates the less likely it is.

Which is why, in one respect, having Ron DeSantis remaining in the race may not be all bad for Haley, at least if she aspires to be on the ticket with Trump. Were the Florida governor to siphon votes from her in New Hampshire and ensure her defeat in even a demographically promising state it would give her the cover to drop out of the race and avoid Armageddon in South Carolina.

Trump has been told, by his son Don and others, that picking Haley would ensure a significant backlash from his populist base. Yet that hasnt stopped the former president, as he is wont to do, from quizzing people about her to test their reactions.

And some in Trumps organization believe, like Graham, that if Trump was convinced Haley could ensure victory hed put aside his reservations and ignore the pleas against her.

Emphasizing this point, one of Trumps loyalists pointed out to me that the former president has mostly attacked her on policy issues and hasnt called Haley bird brain for some time. (This was before Trump tried out a new, ethnic slur for her Tuesday on his Truth Social platform: Nimrada.)

Trumps eventual selection represents a test of how much he believes his own bravado about defeating President Biden. How much help does the former president believe he needs to win?

One consideration Trump will make, Im told, is a vice-presidential pick in the mold of Dick Cheney, somebody who has no ambition to run in their own right (and, unlike Cheney, may not come from the political arena at all).

That, of course, would take Haley out of the running. But it would also sideline a host of other contenders, both traditional Republicans and MAGA-aligned.

Despite Trumps provocative claim at last weeks Fox News town hall that he already has someone in mind, few in his orbit have a feel for whos truly in contention.

What is certain are the Trumpian attributes hell be looking for, namely loyalty, having what he calls the look and that sweet spot between having just enough talent to impress him but not so much to overshadow him.

The loyalty part will hurt the chances of some of those who opposed Trump in the primary Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds would have been a short-lister had she not backed DeSantis, Im told by people with knowledge.

For all his own rhetorical eruptions and sordid (and allegedly illegal) doings, Trump is also harshly judgmental about the appearance and conduct of others.

He wants fealty but not crazy. And its easier to detect the downside, why somebody wont be picked, than to find the perfect candidate.

There are, though, some play-it-safe prospects. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who endorsed Trump before Iowa, would be on that list, and hes helped because he also has another trait the former president admires: wealth. Sens. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), and former HUD Secretary Ben Carson, would be in the same category. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) may also be in that same bloc, but its not clear how much either wants the job and both held out from endorsing Trump for long enough to be noticed, particularly in the case of Sanders.

He also may not do it, but theres Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, whom Graham brought up to me as that prototype of good enough but vanilla enough.

Also: the Trump critics-turned-enthusiasts, namely Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). Few in the party have been less subtle about their interest in the post than Stefanik. Her viral interrogation of college presidents and decision to leave the safe space of Fox News to appear on NBCs Meet the Press were aimed in part at proving to Trump that she can perform on a stage bigger than her North Country district.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is seen at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 17, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Although, to be fair to Stefanik, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who traveled to Iowa to campaign, may have been even more unsubtle.

Noem may be considered. Yet few in Trumps inner circle are enthusiastic about the burst of stories that would accompany her selection, namely her support for a strict state abortion ban that complicates the former presidents desire to downplay the issue and allegations that she had a romantic relationship with her principal adviser, and 2016 Trump campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski.

Some high-level Republicans, though, have a way out for Trump and Noem, who has cycled through chiefs of staff and spent much of her second term as governor out of state for political events: Make her the next (well-paid) head of the NRA.

For now, though, Noem is making her case. And shes making one against the most polarizing figure in the still-developing vice-presidential field.

When the South Dakotan dipped into Western Iowa earlier this month, she attacked Haley by name.

Whichever way the political winds blow is where she goes, and we cannot trust our country to somebody like that either, Noem said of Haley at a rally in Sioux City.

Ben Johansen contributed to this report.

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The GOP Is Already Clashing Over Trump's VP Pick - POLITICO

The Davos consensus on the presidential election

Publicly, the global business leaders who gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, havent wanted to predict the winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The closest theyve come? Referring to it as a geopolitical risk.

But talk to executives privately, and theyre more explicit: They expect Donald Trump to win and while many are worried about that, they are also resigned to it.

The predictions of a Trump victory came in different forms. Many pointed to the headlines and the mood in the U.S. One senior banker told DealBook that you only had to look at the polls to figure out that Trump was on track to win.

Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase also got a lot of attention for his comments. In an interview with Andrew on CNBC, he didnt predict that Trump would win, but suggested that dismissing the former president and his supporters would be a mistake.

Just take a step back and be honest, Dimon said, listing the things that he thought Trump got at least partially right: NATO, immigration, the economy, China and more. He wasnt wrong about some of these critical issues, and thats why theyre voting for him, he said.

I think this negative talk about MAGA will hurt [President] Bidens campaign, he added.

That said, the Davos crowd often gets things wrong. A common critique of those who attend the forum is that they are a contra-indicator of whats to come, so their expectations could bode well for Biden or for Trumps Republican rivals. Trump is already the president at Davos which is a good thing because the Davos consensus is usually wrong, Alex Soros, the son of George Soros, said on a panel.

A little history: The Davos consensus was that Hillary Clinton would beat Trump in 2016. And in 2020, the prevailing view was that there were few risks to the economy as the pandemic began to explode.

Seen and heard:

Perhaps the biggest complaint among attendees was about the long lines everywhere, especially at the Grandhotel Belvdre. Many complained that the process of entering the building with wait times sometimes reaching an hour was worse than ever and it didnt matter whether you were a business titan or a less famous guest. One executive complained to DealBook that the security was more restrictive than at U.S. airports because he had to take off his Apple Watch every time. At previous gatherings, executives wanted a room at the Belvdre because the hotel was considered the best in town and was closest to the main venue but many told DealBook that they no longer do.

Despite the rigid class system people are assigned different colored badges that grant various levels of access the event has odd ways of leveling the playing field, at least a little. At last nights Salesforce party, the hottest ticket of the week, even billionaires had to wait outside with everyone else to get in to watch Sting perform.

Congress approved a stopgap spending bill to avert a government shutdown. President Biden is expected to sign the bill into law on Friday to keep the federal government operating through to early March. Its the third such stopgap bill since October.

Jamie Dimon gets a big bump in pay. JPMorgan Chases board granted its C.E.O. $36 million in compensation for 2023, a year in which the bank weathered a banking crisis and rising interest rates, and generated record profit. The 67-year-old, the longest tenured chief of a large American bank, has not given any indication on when he might retire.

Reddit reportedly considers a March public listing. The social media platform is said to be moving forward with a long-held plan to file for an I.P.O. in the first quarter, according to Reuters. The market for new listings has been a bumpy one and the outlook looks little improved this year.

Macys will cut thousands of jobs. The countrys biggest department store operator will lay off 2,350 employees, about 3.5 percent of the work force. The cuts come as Tony Spring, a veteran retail executive, prepares to take over as C.E.O. next month. Macys has been struggling with slowing sales since the pandemic-inspired shop-from-home boom shook up the retail sector.

BYD doubles down on overseas expansion. The Warren Buffett-backed Chinese maker of electric vehicles plans to invest $1.3 billion in a new Indonesian factory as it continues its aggressive push beyond its home market. Indonesia is home to the worlds largest reserves of nickel, a crucial mineral in production of E.V.s.

The money flowing out of E.S.G. funds has gone from a trickle to a torrent as investors sour on a sector hit by greenwashing concerns, red-state boycotts and boardroom debates.

The investing strategy has become increasingly politicized after being used by companies to address environmental, social, and governance issues among their employees, customers and other stakeholders. In a sign of the times, the phrase has been scrubbed from the World Economic Forums official program in Davos, after being on the agenda in previous years.

Investors pulled $5 billion out of E.S.G.-focused sustainable investment funds last quarter, according to a new report by Morningstar. The withdrawals occurred despite a wider market rally at the end of 2023.

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The Davos Consensus: Donald Trump Will Win Re-Election - The New York Times

Maines top election official said on Friday she intended to appeal the ruling by a state Superior Court judge this week that placed on hold her decision to exclude former President Donald J. Trump from the states Republican primary ballot.

In a statement, the official, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, said she welcomed the guidance of the U.S. Supreme Court, which is expected to hear arguments on a similar case on Feb. 8. But in the meantime, she said, she will seek the input of Maines highest court.

I know both the constitutional and state authority questions are of grave concern to many, Ms. Bellows wrote in a short statement on Friday. This appeal ensures that Maines highest court has the opportunity to weigh in now, before ballots are counted, promoting trust in our free, safe and secure elections.

In a ruling late Friday, the chief justice of Maines highest court, Valerie Stanfill, described the lower courts order as generally not appealable. She ordered Ms. Bellows to provide an explanation by Tuesday on why an appeal should be not dismissed.

Ms. Bellows, a Democrat elected by the State Legislature, ruled on Dec. 28 that Mr. Trump did not qualify for the state ballot in Maine because he engaged in insurrection by encouraging the attack on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. The 14th Amendment disqualifies government officials who engaged in insurrection or rebellion from holding office.

Her decision made Maine the second state to bar him from the ballot, after a Colorado court reached the same conclusion. Similar ballot challenges have been filed in at least 35 states; many remain unresolved though the primary season is already underway.

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Maine Secretary of State to Appeal Ruling on Her Decision to Exclude Trump From Ballot - The New York Times

REAGAN WAS SMILING, wrote Norman Mailer in 1968 as he watched a future American president lose. The result of the first round of the Republican National Convention was in, and Richard Nixon had beaten his challengers, including Ronald Reagan, to secure his partys nomination. Perhaps, Mailer speculated, Reagan was remembering Barry Goldwaters renunciation of the nomination in 1960, and the profitable results which had ensued. In 1960 Goldwater had received riotous applause; in 1964 he got the nomination.

The selection process works differently todayprimary elections, rather than opaque rounds of voting at conventions, determine the winner. But losing can still bring benefits. In the Iowa caucuses on January 15th Donald Trump trounced his nearest rivals, winning by around 30 percentage points. What could be motivating Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, the candidates he beat into a distant second and third place?

The most obvious answer is the one that may have consoled Reagan: the prospect of future success. Most Americans struggle to name their congressman, or even their senators. A presidential run gives candidates unparalleled national exposure, which can pay off in four or eight years. John McCain lost the Republican nomination to George W. Bush in 2000, then beat Mitt Romney in 2008. Mr Romney secured the spot four years later. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden lost to Barack Obama in 2008: Mrs Clinton got the nod in 2016. Mr Biden did in 2020, on his third try. In November 2023 Mr DeSantis took part in a bizarre debate against Californias governor, Gavin Newsom, one of the leading candidates to represent the Democrats in 2028.

Some long shots may run with the intention of settling for second prize: the vice-presidential slot. In 2004 John Kerry picked John Edwards, the runner-up; Reagan similarly tapped George H.W. Bush in 1980. And losers who find their way onto a ticket may eventually clinch the top job. Mr Biden himself benefited from his two terms as Mr Obamas vice-president. The elder Bush succeeded Reagan as president. Lyndon Johnson stepped up from the vice-presidency after John F. Kennedy was killed in office. But Mr Trump, who seems to nurse grudges, might be less inclined to run alongside a competitor. He insisted on January 10th that he already knows whom he will choose, regardless of primary results.

The runner-up may also hope to benefit from less probable scenarios. The 77-year-old Mr Trump might take ill; the Supreme Court could boot him off the ballot. Ms Haley is gaining support among moderate Republicans, independents, and even Democrats who worry that Mr Biden will lose to Mr Trump. No Labels, a centrist group, may be preparing to launch a presidential challenge. Some observers think she could become the groups candidate. Whatever her plan, after finishing a close third to Mr DeSantis in Iowa, a strong showing on January 23rd in New Hampshire (where non-Republicans can vote in the primary) would help.

Mr DeSantis, a popular governor but unnatural campaigner, has fewer options. His pitch (Trump without the chaos) did not persuade voters who still like the original. Mr DeSantis did the full Grassleya tour of all of Iowas 99 counties, named after a long-time senatorbetting everything on the first contest. That helped him to a narrow victory over Ms Haley. But it matters how, not just where, you finish. Mr DeSantis is limping. Ms Haley is poised to overtake him.

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What is the point of coming second to Donald Trump? - The Economist