Category Archives: Democrat

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

All eyes have been on Congress this week as Republicans and Democrats have worked feverishly to hammer out another COVID-19 economic relief bill. As of Thursday afternoon, it looked like the sides were coming together on a roughly $900 billion package that would provide funding to struggling businesses, extend unemployment benefits and send checks to individual Americans but not protect businesses from coronavirus-related lawsuits or bail out local governments.

If and when the stimulus bill passes, it should be popular with the American public. According to a YouGov/CBS News poll conducted Dec. 8-11, 86 percent of registered voters approved of Congress passing an additional economic relief package that would provide funds to people and businesses impacted by the coronavirus outbreak. That support cut across party lines, too: 94 percent of Democrats, 85 percent of independents and 79 percent of Republicans all said they approved of such a package.

[What We Know About Long COVID]

In fact, Americans are so desperate for congressional action on the coronavirus that they would support a relief package that doesnt send them each a personal stimulus payment something past polls have found extremely popular. However, support for such a bill was significantly lower than for the one described by YouGov/CBS News: Registered voters supported it 63 percent to 37 percent, according to a Dec. 3-7 poll from HarrisX/The Hill. Thats looking pretty hypothetical at this point, though: Congress is likely to pass some form of stimulus payments this time around (though they are likely to be only $600 per person, not $1,200 as in the spring).

Unsurprisingly, Americans remain worried about the economic impact of the pandemic. According to FiveThirtyEights tracker of such polls, 53.1 percent of Americans say they are very concerned about the coronaviruss effect on the economy, and 32.6 percent say they are somewhat concerned.

But recent news not just the likely passage of another stimulus bill, but also the rollout of what looks like a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine may lessen the intensity of their concern. Some Americans seem to have switched from the very concerned camp to the somewhat concerned camp in our tracker over the past couple weeks, driven largely by this weeks Ipsos/Axios poll in which only 48 percent of adults said they were either extremely or very concerned about an economic collapse.

[Related: Does It Matter Which COVID-19 Vaccine You Get?]

The country may also be feeling more optimistic given the upcoming presidential transition. Morning Consult/Politicos poll this week asked registered voters whom they trusted more to handle the economic recovery following the coronavirus: 52 percent said President-elect Biden, while 38 percent said President Trump.

And other polls this week suggest that Americans do not want the current stimulus bill to be the governments last action to address the crisis. For example, in the latest installment of Navigator Researchs regular tracking poll on the coronavirus, 65 percent of registered voters chose the pandemic as one of the top four issues they want Biden and the new Congress to focus on in January by far the highest share of any issue. In second place, with 48 percent, is jobs and the economy.

According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 43.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.5 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -8.9 points). At this time last week, 43.3 percent approved and 52.4 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -9.1 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 44.8 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -7.2 points.

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Americans Overwhelmingly Want Congress To Approve Another Coronavirus Stimulus Package - FiveThirtyEight

School reopenings will likely take center stage in 2021 as one of Californias biggest political battles.

Its a battle all the more noteworthy because it pits two groups that are often allies unions and Democratic lawmakers against each other. This week, the states two largest teachers unions the California Teachers Association and the California Federation of Teachers publicly opposed a bill introduced by eight Democratic lawmakers that could force schools to reopen in March. The unions decision to come out against the bill in December, several weeks before legislators return to Sacramento, was unusual and an indication of their intent to halt it in its tracks.

Its also a thorny political situation for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is under increasing pressure to get students back into the classroom as he faces a make-or-break point in his career and fends off a growing recall movement. Newsom is apparently amenable to working with lawmakers on the bill, though he risks alienating two powerful unions that spent nearly $1.5 million to help elect him in 2018.

Next year will also be pivotal in determining the direction of the states pandemic response. Several recent rulings have called into question the legality of Newsoms shelter-in-place restrictions, raising the possibility that limitations on outdoor dining and other businesses may not survive. But some labor groups are calling for even stricter shutdowns, pointing to a sustained surge in hospitalizations that has overwhelmed ICUs and resulted in a record number of deaths for four straight days.

On a more personal note, I want to thank all of you for sticking it out with me through such a crazy year. I sent my first newsletter on March 9, less than two weeks before California shut down. To say the least, its been a roller coaster. But interacting with you through emails, phone calls, Zoom, Twitter has made my year so much brighter. Thank you for reading, and for making CalMatters part of your morning routine. Ill see you in 2021.

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The coronavirus bottom line:As of 9 p.m. Thursday night, California had1,723,362 confirmed coronavirus casesand21,860 deathsfrom the virus, according toaCalMatters tracker.

Also:CalMatters regularly updates this pandemic timeline tracking thestates daily actions. And weretracking the states coronavirus hospitalizations by county.

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1. California vaccine update

Teachers, child care providers, first responders and food and agriculture workers will likely be prioritized for the next round of coronavirus vaccines, according to recommendations made Wednesday by a panel of state experts. But the jockeying for position is far from over: Those groups comprise nearly 6 million Californians, but the state will likely receive only 4 million doses by the end of January more than 2 million of which are slated for health care workers and nursing home residents.

Meanwhile, the vaccine distribution appears to have hit some snags. Californias second shipment will contain 160,000 fewer doses than anticipated due to the federal government reducing allocations, Newsoms administration said Thursday. The Trump administration denied changing shipment numbers. Logistical complications also delayed the delivery of doses to three California medical facilities Wednesday.

2. Unemployment fraud update

Californias unemployment department paid $21,000 in fraudulent claims for federal benefits filed under the name of Sen. Dianne Feinstein the latest in a long list of suspicious names, including Poopy Britches, that have successfully garnered money from a department besieged by fraud. The woman who filed the claim under Feinsteins name was a former employee of the Employment Development Department who allegedly filed more than 100 fraudulent claims worth at least $2 million, federal authorities said Thursday. Prosecutors on Thursday also unveiled two more conspiracies to scam EDD, the Los Angeles Times reports:

The news comes about a week after Bank of America, which distributes Californias unemployment benefits via debit card, estimated it had paid at least $2 billion in fraudulent claims. Meanwhile, more than 683,000 unemployment claims remain backlogged.

3. PG&Es tree toppling creates hazards

Despite Californias attempts to force PG&E to improve its fire mitigation practices, the utility is facing potentially millions of dollars in fines for its hazardous approach to clearing vegetation in Santa Cruz County, the site of this summers destructive CZU Lightning Complex fires, CalMatters Julie Cart reports. The method, known as Whack and Stack, entails chopping down trees around power lines and piling them up on residents property increasing fire risk while leaving homeowners with cleanup bills in the tens of thousands of dollars. And in some cases, PG&E haphazardly whacked the tops off beloved old-growth redwoods, further incensing residents.

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The danger of surging gun sales: First-time gun buyers think they are protecting themselves and their families, but they are increasing the risk of death, injury and trauma, argues Brian Malte of the Hope and Heal Fund.

Helping the helpers: To relieve some of the burden on immigrant students helping their younger siblings with remote learning, schools should provide laptops, hot spots, translators and compassion, writes Vanessa Delgado of UC Irvine.

Newsoms lobbying ban wont immediately affect French Laundry dining partner Jason Kinney. // San Francisco Chronicle

French Laundry received over $2.4 million in PPP loans. // Fox Business

Environmental justice groups block Mary Nichols path to the EPA. // Los Angeles Times

Mayor Garcetti to stay in Los Angeles, ending speculation over joining Biden cabinet. // Los Angeles Times

Sacramento supervisors try to calm nerves over diversion of COVID health funds. // Sacramento Bee

This former California mayor could add millions to his pension with a six-month job. // Mercury News

A California bus crash killed 11. Was the drivers prison sentence a miscarriage of justice? // Sacramento Bee

Homebuying binge doubles million-dollar ZIP codes in Orange County. // Orange County Register

Women shatter glass ceiling on California redistricting commission. // Capitol Weekly

Photo gallery: 2020 in review. // San Francisco Chronicle

See you in 2021. Have a happy and safe holiday season!

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School reopening battle intensifies as unions and Democrats face off - CALmatters

I have been chronicling the atrocities of the Trump era almost daily for five years and I'm exhausted. I don't think I'm alone. One of Trump's most insidious talents is to dominate the spotlight to such an extent that you can't look away even if you want to. He's everywhere. There is just so much, more than we can fully absorb, so we just keep watching, waiting for the spectacle to end, paralyzed and psychically drained.

And now it's almost over.

Aside from some short appearances in the press room to declare himself the winner, a couple of desultory interviews with friendly cable news hosts, one low energy rally in Georgia and the extended, puerile whine of his Twitter account, Donald Trump has been blessedly out of sight for most of the past five weeks. There's been no chopper talk, no televised Cabinet meetings with sycophantic tributes to his greatness, no crude insults toward reporters, nothing.

If one didn't know better, one might assume that the president is ashamed because he lost the election and doesn't want to face the public. But that would be wrong. If there's one thing we know,it's that Donald Trump has no shame.

We don't know if Trump will fire more people, pardon himself and his family, start a war or simply continue to sit in the White House raging against his enemies and tweeting out lies about the election but the fact is that this long national acid trip is winding down at long last. Unfortunately, the hangover is going to be titanic. Unless the nation sobers up quickly and takes action, we may never recover.

The good news is that we are seeing signs of life in the U.S. Congress in this regard.

Rep. Jerry Nadler, D-N.Y., chairman of the House Judiciary Committee,gave noticethis week that his committee intends to pursue the subpoena of former White House Counsel Don McGahn. You will recall that McGahn was not allowed to testify before Congress on the basis of a novel legal concept called "absolute immunity" which, if allowed to stand, would render congressional oversight practically impotent.

So while Democrats continue to pursue the subpoena as a means to push back against a legalprinciple that attempts to usurptheir oversight powers, they will undoubtedlyfollow up on just what happened with all ofthat obstruction of justice Trump committed. They may not be able to sanction Trump for it, but they need to build the record after all,this guy may try to bust his way back into power in four years.

Meanwhile, we have also learned that theManhattan District Attorneyand theNew York Attorney General's cases are proceeding apace. These cases are beyond the scope of any federal pardon, as you know, so Trump may be seeing the inside of a courtroom whether he pardons himself or not.

But is any of that enough? It can't be, particularly when theNew York TimesandPoliticoreported earlier in the week something so shocking that it would be a crime not to investigate it.

Two political appointees at the CDC admitted that they had been instructed to slant pandemic advice according to guidance from people such as Ivanka Trump and Kellyanne Conway. And it's now quite clear that the administration did adopt a herd immunity strategy to deal with the pandemic and lied about it. One incompetent adviser actually wrote "we want them infected" in an email.

We knew this, sort of.Trump had been quoted early in the pandemic wondering why we didn't just let it "wash over the country" which Dr. Fauci, the head of infectious diseases at the National Institute of Health, explained would result in a horrible death toll. Still, Trump clung to that notion and ended up hiring a radiologist he first saw on Fox News, Dr. Scott Atlas, who promoted the concept. These new reports show the extent to which this policy filtered through the government and negatively affected the response. It was a conscious decision. Now over 300,000 people are dead and counting, many of whom might be alive today if Donald Trump were not the president of the United States when a pandemic hit our shores.

The Atlantic's James Fallowstook a look at the problem of accountability for what's happened and I think his ideas for how to deal with it make a lot of sense. He suggests that the Biden White House steer clear of most of that work except for the important job of trying to make the executive branch work properly again. Obviously, he should remain hands-off any criminal investigations that might come through the Department of Justice, his only obligation there would be to appoint someone with credibility and integrity to handle whatever cases may already be percolating. So that leaves the Democrats, who control the congressional committees in the House, tocreatea Good CopBad Cop dynamic between Biden and Nadler which might just be effective if the Democrats stay strong and don't react to bad faith caterwauling from the Republicans.

Fallows also believes that Biden should appoint three commissions, which I think are vital and I really hope that someone in the administration is listening.

The first would be a commission to look at the pandemic response. This won't be the last time we face such a crisis and this one was so much worse than it should have been. The country needs to know how it happened and understand how to ensure it doesn't happen again.

The second commission Fallows recommends would look into the cases of family separation at the border, with an immediate taskto find the children and then document meticulously exactly how such a program came to be implemented. As Fallows points out, this didn't happen by executive fiat. There was complicity at all levels and it has to be exposed and dealt with. This grotesque policy is right up there with the pandemic in terms of sheer cruelty.

And finally, Biden needs to appoint a commission to investigate the Trump administration's assault on democracy itself. He didn't invent it, of course, but he's taken it to a level that is in danger of permanently damaging our election system and people's faith in their democracy. And he's done so on the basis of crude lies and propaganda.

Biden doesn't have to be personally involved in any of this. He can stay above the fray and concentrate on doing the job he was hired to do. But these commissions would go a long way toward reassuring the majority of Americans who are still shell-shocked by what has happened in these four years that at least there will be a public airing and permanent record of what went wrong. Most people are hungry for the truth and while I doubt Trump's followers will want to hear it, we need the truth for the history books. At some point, their children or grandchildren may want to know what really happened.

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Donald Trump has real reason to be worried: Democrats are pursuing accountability this time - Salon

Americans hold over $1.7 trillion in student debt and the federal reserve estimates that 31% of all U.S. adults have student loans all while the country faces a recession and historically high unemployment.

Now, House Democrats have proposed "broadly" forgiving up to $50,000 of federal debt for student borrowers.

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The resolution recommends that on his first day in office, President-elect Biden use his executive authority to offer significant student debt forgiveness and also ensure that any cancellation does not result in any tax liability for federal student loan borrowers.

The House members involved in the resolution include Representatives Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Alma Adams of North Carolina and Maxine Waters of California.

Notably, Waters is the chair of the influential House Financial Services Committee and has previously called for Biden to cancel $50,000 of student debt.

While this resolution cannot require the incoming Biden administration to take such action, it does add to the mounting pressure being applied to President-elect Biden to follow through on his campaign promises and pass student debt relief.

"The student debt crisis is a racial and economic justice issue and we must finally begin to address it as such," said Congresswoman Pressley in a statement. "Broad-based student debt cancellation is precisely the kind of bold, high-impact policy that the broad and diverse coalition that elected Joe Biden and Kamala Harris expect them to deliver."

Democratic Presidential candidate and former US Vice President Joe Biden speaks during the final presidential debate at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee, on October 22, 2020.

BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images

During his campaign, Biden proposed creating a program that offers $10,000 of undergraduate or graduate student debt relief for every year of national or community service, up to five years.

According to the proposal, "Individuals working in schools, government and other non-profit settings will be automatically enrolled in this forgiveness program; up to five years of prior national or community service will also qualify."

In September, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Elizabeth Warren introduced a comparable Senate Resolution that urges President-elect Biden to "broadly cancel up to $50,000 in Federal student loan debt."

And in November, Schumer reiterated his belief that Biden could pass such a policy through executive action.

When CNBC Make It interviewed economists about Biden's proposal and the prospect of student loan forgiveness, many said the subject showed an opportunity for common ground.

"I think his loan forgiveness proposal, and prioritizing student loan debt, is really a no-brainer," said Judith Scott-Clayton, an associate professor of economics and education at Columbia University. "Especially in terms of the consequences of loan default and the trends that we're likely to see if nothing is done urgently on that issue, I think that has the potential to be very impactful."

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House Democrats propose forgiving up to $50,000 in student debtheres whats in the resolution - CNBC

"That's how they beat the living hell out of us across the country, saying that we're talking about defunding the police." Those were the words of Joe Biden, from a leaked audio of a virtual meeting among the president-elect, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris and leaders of several civil-right groups.

Biden was referring to Democrats' down-ballot losses in last month's elections, but many progressives and Black Lives Matter supporters who worked hard for Biden's victory in the presidential race would find such a statement offensive, scapegoating, devaluing and probably not even accurate. If Biden and other moderate Democrats continue with such attacks, it could have a chilling effect on progressives returning to the polls for two Georgia runoff elections that will determine which party will control the U.S. Senate.

Beyond conjecture, there doesn't seem to be any evidence to support Biden's assertion, which has been echoed by other influential moderates including U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina. In fact, the evidence from recent polling points to the opposite. According to CNN's exit poll data from the November election, for example, 53 percent of Georgia voters held a favorable view of Black Lives Matter versus 42 percent who didn't, and Biden received 78 percent of that favorable vote. That tracks with national numbers: A Pew Research Center survey conducted in September found support for BLM running at 55 percent; Pew found that 86 percent of African Americans and 87 percent of Democrats supported BLM.

The Georgia exit poll data was illuminating in other ways, finding that Biden won 56 percent of the 18-29-year-old vote and 54 percent of those between 30 and 44; 87 percent of the liberal vote and 65 percent of the moderate vote; and fully 90 percent of those who identified racial inequality as the most important issue to them. It seems that Biden's biggest problem and that of the two Georgia Democrats running for the Senate is going to be keeping these voters motivated, not blaming them for down-ballot losses.

It should go without saying very few Democratic candidates endorsed actually defunding the police. Most candidates for state and local offices advocated for reforming, not eliminating, the police, and holding them accountable. Republican challengers knew they were distorting the positions held by their Democratic opponents, but they found it to be an effective political tactic to try to force their opponents to distance themselves from some of their most ardent supporters: young, Black and Latino progressives.

How did the Democratic establishment so quickly surrender the moral high ground to the Republicans on the question of policing in America? No matter the answer, the public has an abiding interest in knowing that our president-elect is who he says he is: a unifier who listens to all of the American people. Lecturing civil rights leaders on racism and police reform does not inspire confidence.

Early voting is already under way for the Jan. 5 Georgia Senate runoff elections, and the two Republican incumbents have challenges of their own: President Trump is not at the top of the ticket this time, and he continues to attack Republican leaders who won't buy into his unfounded claims of voter fraud that have been overwhelmingly rejected by courts. This might convince his base that, despite the absence of evidence, their votes might not be fairly counted. The media have focused attention almost exclusively on how Trump's attacks could suppress Republican voter turnout for the Georgia runoffs, while ignoring how the Democrats' attacks on the liberal wing of their party might turn off its voters.

Biden's victory is not a mandate for returning to moderation and a romantic belief in a bygone era of bipartisanship in which politicians agree on milquetoast policies and appeal to the lowest common denominator. Americans need public officials to make bold, value-driven decisions based on fairness and equity. Alienating youth and progressives who represent the future of the nation will not achieve this objective. The president-elect must instead promise our future leaders that their lives matter and that he wants to pass on to them a better America than what we have today even a society where our present concept of policing may not be relevant.

Governing's opinion columns reflect the views of their authors and not necessarily those of Governing's editors or management.

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Democrats Need Progressive Voters. Blaming Them Should Stop. - Governing

VERONA, N.Y. Pushing further into Republican territory one week before Election Day, Democrats are poised to expand their majority in the House while Republicans, weighed down by President Trumps low standing in crucial battlegrounds, are scrambling to offset losses.

Bolstered by an enormous cash-on-hand advantage, a series of critical Republican recruitment failures and a wave of liberal enthusiasm, Democrats have fortified their grip on hard-fought seats won in 2018 that allowed them to seize control of the House. They have trained their firepower and huge campaign coffers on once-solid Republican footholds in affluent suburban districts, where many voters have become disillusioned with Mr. Trump.

That has left Republicans, who started the cycle hoping to retake the House by clawing back a number of the competitive districts they lost to Democrats in 2018, straining to meet a bleaker goal: limiting the reach of another Democratic sweep by winning largely rural, white working-class districts like this one in central New York where Mr. Trump is still popular. Depending on how successful those efforts are, Republican strategists, citing a national environment that has turned against them, privately forecast losing anywhere from a handful of seats to as many as 20.

That is starkly at odds with Mr. Trumps own prediction just days ago that Republicans would win back control of the House, which Speaker Nancy Pelosi declared delusional, echoing the private assessments of many in the presidents own party.

The Democrats green wave in 2018 has turned into a green tsunami in 2020, which combined with ongoing struggles with college-educated suburban voters, makes for an extremely challenging environment, said Corry Bliss, a Republican strategist who helped lead the partys failed effort in 2018 to protect its House majority, referring to the torrent of Democratic campaign cash. There are about a dozen 50-50 races across the country, and the most important factor in each is if the president can close strong in the final stretch.

The terrain for House Republicans was not supposed to be this grim. But Mr. Trumps stumbling response to the pandemic and inflammatory brand of politics have alienated critical segments of the electorate, particularly suburban voters and women, dragging down congressional Republicans and opening inroads for Democrats in districts that once would have been unfathomable.

I dont think too many people would have thought that at the beginning of this cycle, but we are playing deep into Trump country, Representative Cheri Bustos of Illinois, the chairwoman of House Democrats campaign arm, said, noting that a third of a billion dollars and strong recruits had yielded a good secret sauce.

Eyeing new opportunities in districts that have traditionally been conservative strongholds, Democrats have charged into suburbs across the country. In the Midwest, they are targeting Representatives Don Bacon of Nebraska, Ann Wagner of Missouri, and Rodney Davis of Illinois. They are also storming once ruby-red parts of Texas, positioning themselves in striking distance of picking up as many as five seats on the outskirts of Houston and Dallas.

Perhaps nowhere is the dynamic on starker display than outside Indianapolis, in a sea horse-shaped district held by Representative Susan W. Brooks, Republican of Indiana, who is retiring. The district, one of the states wealthiest and most educated, has been reliably conservative, sending Republicans to the House since the early 1990s and supporting Mr. Trump in 2016 by eight points.

Keep up with Election 2020

But this year, Democrats view the district as one of their best opportunities to flip a seat, betting that distaste for Mr. Trump will buoy support for their candidate, Christina Hale, a former member of the Indiana General Assembly who boasts of having worked to pass legislation with Vice President Mike Pence when he was the states governor.

People here are just so fatigued of all the drama and the constant news cycle, Ms. Hale said in an interview. Theyre just really looking for practical, competent, empathetic people to represent them in Washington and people that will collaborate across the aisle.

Two years ago, armed with similar brands and messages, Democrats won 31 districts where Mr. Trump had prevailed in 2016. Most of them are expected to cruise to re-election, capitalizing on their huge fund-raising hauls and weak Republican challengers.

If Republicans have any reason for optimism, it is in largely rural areas like New Yorks 22nd District, populated by mostly white voters who still strongly support the president. They are bullish about their chances in this race, where Claudia Tenney is seeking to reclaim her seat from Representative Anthony Brindisi, the Democrat who ousted her in 2018 after winning by fewer than 4,500 votes.

While Ms. Tenney described herself in an interview as independent, her campaign is gambling that Mr. Trumps presence on the ballot this year could help her edge past Mr. Brindisi on Election Day. All through the district, along roads that wind through farmland and tucked among elaborate Halloween displays, yard signs paid for by the Tenney campaign blare, in all capital letters, Trump Tenney a clear indication of how their fortunes are intertwined. (Mr. Trump on Tuesday also tweeted in support of Ms. Tenney.)

I just find it really hard to believe that hes not going to win this district by double digits, and I think his policies have done really well for our region, Ms. Tenney said of Mr. Trump. They would rather have a president and a leader whos going to stand up for them than get hung up on personality issues.

Oct. 27, 2020, 9:49 p.m. ET

But Mr. Brindisi, who has sought to build a platform rooted in health care and local constituency work and legislation, argued that Ms. Tenney lost in 2018 because she had failed to deliver on her promises to the district.

People dont want to turn back the clock. They want to continue to go forward, Mr. Brindisi said. At the end of the day, if I meet with people on the street in this district, what theyll tell me is, Anthony, I dont care if youre a Democrat or Republican, just get things done.

Elsewhere around the country, some challengers whom Republicans had promoted as strong recruits, like Nancy Mace, the first woman to graduate from the Citadel who is running against Representative Joe Cunningham of South Carolina, have found themselves stunted by a dismal national environment and unable to get their attacks against centrist lawmakers to stick.

When you try and paint somebody thats clearly a moderate as super extreme, I just dont think it works, said A.J. Lenar, a Democratic ad maker and strategist who works with Mr. Cunningham and cut an ad poking fun at attempts to brand him a socialist.

Making matters worse for Republicans is the state of their fund-raising. Democrats in the most competitive races are sitting on a 5-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage over their Republican challengers, and Democratic candidates overall were poised to spend nearly twice as much on television ads from Labor Day to Election Day, according to strategists tracking the buys. In New York, Democrats are outspending Republicans by $9 million on television in support of Representative Max Rose, who holds a Staten Island seat that Republicans believe is one of their best opportunities.

Some Republican candidates, including Ms. Tenney, were out-raised so handily that outside groups, like the Congressional Leadership Fund, a House Republican super PAC, have been forced to step in to carry out campaign fundamentals like advertising and phone calls, as well as get-out-the-vote programs. Ms. Tenney is among a group of Republican candidates this cycle who have run almost no ads themselves, leaving the super PAC to carry their entire television campaign.

Democrats giant cash advantage also means they can afford to play in longer-shot races in Alaska and Montana, forcing Republicans to sink millions into those at-large seats in an effort to build a firewall against a potential wave.

Even though his party appeared to be playing more defense than offense, Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the chairman of the National Republican Campaign Committee, argued in an interview that Republicans could still take back the House. Democrats in districts like New Yorks 22nd, which Mr. Brindisi flipped two years ago, appear to be on stronger footing than they actually are, he said, because of national polls that undercount conservatives an assertion few of his peers share.

But he acknowledged his prediction assumed Mr. Trump was as popular with voters in those districts as he was four years ago.

It really depends on if the president performs at or near 2016 levels, Mr. Emmer said. If not, it becomes a lot more difficult.

That is also the challenge for Victoria Spartz, the Republican state senator who is running against Ms. Hale in the suburbs of Indiana, where internal polls show support for Mr. Trump eroding. She has used her rags-to-riches story of emigrating from the Soviet Ukraine to emphasize her strong belief in limited government.

But Ms. Spartz is facing the same headwinds buffeting her party in districts around the nation. After prevailing in a crowded primary by flaunting her conservative credentials, she must now convince voters of her independence from Mr. Trump and Republicans.

I wish people would pay more attention and actually vote for the candidate, she said in an interview, not for the party.

Emily Cochrane reported from Verona, N.Y., and Catie Edmondson from Washington. Luke Broadwater contributed reporting from Washington.

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Democrats Are Poised to Expand House Majority in GOP Turf - The New York Times

HENRICO COUNTY, Va. When Representative Abigail Spanberger, the Democrat running for re-election in the conservative-leaning Richmond suburbs, arrived to debate her Republican opponent on a recent evening, she received a heroines welcome, loudly cheered by supporters on both sides of the street who held blue balloons and handmade signs praising her accomplishments.

There was no such warm welcome for Nick Freitas, the state delegate running to oust her, recalled Carol Catron, 52, a stay-at-home mom and a supporter of Ms. Spanberger, who was among those shouting We love Abigail! outside as the Republican walked in without making eye contact.

The scene in this Republican-leaning district, which voted heavily for President Trump four years ago, underscored how solidly Ms. Spanberger a first-term representative once thought to have an uphill climb to re-election has cemented her following among voters here and now has the advantage heading into Election Day.

Across the country, Democrats like Ms. Spanberger, a former C.I.A. officer who has cultivated a brand as a moderate unafraid to criticize her own party, are playing a pivotal role that has positioned Democrats to maintain control of the House and build their majority.

She and dozens of freshmen Democrats like her whose victories in Trump-friendly districts in 2018 handed the party control of the House and who were seen as the most vulnerable to defeat this year are leading their Republican challengers in polling and fund-raising headed into the elections final week.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi likes to call this group of about 40 lawmakers most of them young, many women, and predominantly moderates her majority makers, while the House Democratic campaign arm calls them frontliners. And they have largely managed to buck intense Republican attempts to brand them as Ms. Pelosis minions, socialists or out-of-touch coastal elites.

We knew we had a lot of work to do when we got elected, and we got to work, says Representative Lauren Underwood, Democrat of Illinois and a registered nurse.

Republicans had hoped to pick off Ms. Underwood, who in 2018 won in the Chicago suburbs carried by Mr. Trump. But after she raised more than $7 million and Republicans nominated a perennially unsuccessful candidate to challenge her, national conservative groups decided against spending on advertising in the district.

In polling conducted by the House Democrats campaign arm, the frontliners are outperforming former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, the Democratic nominee, in their districts by an average of 8 percentage points, said Representative Cheri Bustos of Illinois, who leads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

In June, the Democratic frontline candidates had about $125 million cash on hand compared with just $25 million for their Republican challengers.

While each of the frontliners is running in a competitive district or a Republican stronghold Mr. Trump carried, only seven are in races that are still considered tossups, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

There arent very many of them left who are in genuine danger, said David Wasserman, the House editor of the newsletter.

Keep up with Election 2020

To be sure, there are still a handful who are at real risk of defeat. Representatives Kendra Horn in Oklahoma, Max Rose and Anthony Brindisi in New York, Ben McAdams in Utah, TJ Cox in California, Xochitl Torres Small in New Mexico and Abby Finkenauer in Iowa are all struggling to head off Republican challengers.

Still, for a group that was initially seen as top targets and most likely to pay the steepest political price for Mr. Trumps impeachment they are outperforming expectations. Of the 58 changes he has made to House race rankings over the past three months, Mr. Wasserman said, many of them have benefited these Democratic freshmen.

Clearly the battlefield has shifted to Republican-held seats, Mr. Wasserman added. Republicans have not had enough money to prosecute the case against these freshmen Democrats.

After Democrats picked up 41 House seats in 2018, Republicans immediately vowed revenge, targeting more than 50 seats, including 13 districts that Mr. Trump carried by six percentage points or more, as their ticket to reclaiming the majority.

Polling showed voters in these districts viewed socialism negatively, so Representative Tom Emmer of Minnesota, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, embarked on a strategy to try to tie the freshmen Democrats to that label, predicting that their partys embrace of socialism is going to cost them their majority in the House.

Democrats were prepared for the onslaught, moving quickly and aggressively to protect the more than 40 members of their Frontline Program almost all freshmen through aggressive fund-raising, volunteer recruitment and online networking.

They rushed to build individual brands distinct from their partys, and hauled in campaign cash that scared off some potential challengers from the right. And Mr. Trumps sinking poll numbers in the suburbs has given them an even broader advantage in the closing months of the race.

Like Ms. Spanberger, several including Representative Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, a former C.I.A. analyst; Representative Jared Golden of Maine, a Marine who served in Iraq and Afghanistan; and Representative Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, a Navy helicopter pilot are known for their robust national security credentials.

Ms. Sherrills race is not considered competitive. National conservative groups have shied away from challenging Ms. Slotkin again, after spending millions on unsuccessful attack ads against her two years ago, and recently decided to cut their advertising campaign against Mr. Golden. And this month, the Cook Political Report moved Ms. Spanberger out of its toss up category, judging that her district was leaning toward re-electing her.

Ms. Slotkin said she and other frontliners have had to labor far more intensively than many of their older Democrats colleagues, who hold safe seats in deep-blue districts.

It takes work for a Democrat to represent a majority-Republican district, Ms. Slotkin said. We came into Congress with a strong sense of what it took to win in tough districts and what it would take to keep the seats.

On a recent Wednesday, as Ms. Spanberger campaigned here with Douglas Emhoff, the husband of Senator Kamala Harris of California, the Democratic nominee for vice president, she relayed what she is up against.

Oct. 27, 2020, 9:49 p.m. ET

A voter recently approached Ms. Spanberger with fear in her voice asking if Democrats were really moving to defund the police, as Republicans were claiming. Ms. Spanberger assured the woman she and the majority of Democrats were not.

It really does make people scared, she said of the Republican line of attack.

In some ways, Ms. Spanberger and frontliners like her have served as brand ambassadors for the Democratic Party in red districts, pushing back against Republican attempts to caricature their party and, at times, openly criticizing their own leaders.

On a recent private call with Ms. Pelosi and Democratic colleagues, and confirmed in an interview with Ms. Spanberger, she blasted party leaders for failing to find agreement with Republicans on a new coronavirus stimulus deal, saying she wanted to do my goddamned job and come up with a solution for the American people.

It was a familiar spot for Ms. Spanberger, who rose to viral fame in 2018 after a debate with the Tea Party-aligned incumbent Republican, Representative Dave Brat, in which she chided him for repeatedly referring to Ms. Pelosi instead of her.

I question again whether Congressman Brat knows which Democrat in fact hes running against, Ms. Spanberger said then, as the crowd burst into applause. Abigail Spanberger is my name!

In this months debate, Mr. Freitas, a former Green Beret running as a strict fiscal conservative, attempted to tie her to Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the liberal firebrand from New York.

My opponent votes with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez almost 90 percent of the time and then comes back to the district and claims to be a moderate, Mr. Freitas said.

This time, Ms. Spanberger ignored her opponents comment altogether.

I dont fall in line with speaker when I dont want to, Ms. Spanberger said in an interview. I certainly disagree with colleagues, Alexandria among them. But thats fine. We dont have to agree.

Despite the success of the frontliners, Mr. Emmer said he was optimistic and saw a narrow path back to control of the House should Mr. Trump perform at or near 2016 levels. Mr. Emmer said he believed many polls were off because they were missing a significant number of Trump supporters who dont typically vote.

He noted that some of the frontliners were still in peril.

They claimed they were going to go to Washington to be moderate problem-solvers, Mr. Emmer says. They didnt do it.

But his argument does not appear to have resonated in dozens of crucial districts.

In Michigan, Representative Haley Stevens is favored to win re-election; in New York, Representative Antonio Delgados main rival dropped out of the race because he couldnt keep pace in fund-raising; and in California, Representative Katie Porter is a dominant favorite in a seat Republicans had held since the 1980s before she won it in 2018.

Ms. Stevens has pressed a pro-manufacturing agenda for her district dominated by the auto industry in the Detroit suburbs. She pushed for her party to come to an agreement with Republicans on the United States-Mexico trade deal early on, when it wasnt popular, she said, because she thought it would create jobs that my district would overwhelmingly benefit from.

Others carved out their own identities separate from the national party, said Ms. Porter, one of the few progressives in the group, who is known for breaking out a whiteboard during congressional hearings and dressing down witnesses accused of profiteering or corruption.

We didnt all fall out of the same playbook, she said. We established a level of credibility that were going to fight for you and were not going to be bought.

Back in Ms. Spanbergers district, Ms. Catron said having a counterbalance to Mr. Trump and Republicans was a big reason she supported her Democratic congresswoman.

Thank God we have the House, Ms. Catron said. Without it, I cant even imagine where wed be right now.

Catie Edmondson contributed reporting.

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Swing-District Democrats, Defying Predictions, Poised to Help Keep House - The New York Times

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Mary Ann Hegan is part of a voter migration she never anticipated.

The 72-year-old retiree from Laughlintown is among more than 486,000 Pennsylvania Democrats who have switched their registration to Republican since 2008. Moving the other way, Tim Gunter, 49, of Philipsburg is among 291,324 Republicans in the state to have become Democrats.

Although Democrats still hold a 700,000 voter registration edge statewide, Pennsylvania Republicans have done a better job recruiting party members since they helped elect President Trump in 2016. In the four years since, Democratic voter registration statewide declined by 10,000, standing at 4.2 million today. Conversely, Republicans registered a gain of 205,000 voters during that time, an increase that boosted GOP registration in Pennsylvania to 3.5 million.

In the interim, state records show registration fluctuated. But as it surged since the June primary, Republicans added 215,393 registered voters, while Democrats added 114,497.

Numbers like that are getting a lot of attention in what is considered a must-win swing state that Trump won by 44,000 votes, out of more than 6 million cast, in 2016.

Philip J. Harold, a political scientist at Robert Morris University in Moon, said Republican gains should be cause for excitement in the Trump campaign, where recent polls have had the president down by 4 to 6 points among likely voters.

It is highly significant. I think it indicates the race is a lot tighter than polls are showing. I think its a tossup, he said.

Changes in registration illustrate a very tangible enthusiasm gap that favors Trump, Harold said.

But everything hinges upon turnout. This is going to be a turnout election, he predicted.

Driving change

Trump is driving that on both sides of the aisle.

Both Hegan and Gunter cited Trump in their decision to switch parties.

Gunter, a lifelong Republican, grew up attending a conservative Protestant church in Central Pennsylvania. He remembers his grandmother telling him, You cant be a Democrat and a Christian.

He registered as a Republican at 18. As he grew older, however, he found himself studying issues and splitting his ticket. Three years ago, he said he decided he could no longer support a party that would not call out its president. He became a Democrat.

Even though I do not consider myself a Christian anymore, I do consider myself someone who cherishes family values and caring about everyone. I cant stand behind a party that refuses to call him on things that are horrible to people. He demeans people and talks down to people, Gunter said.

The married father of two adult children, Gunter who was laid off from his job with a bus company in State College when ridership plummeted during the pandemic has had a lot of time to study the upcoming election. He said he might not agree 100% with Biden, but sees him as a man of character who can lead America in the right direction.

In Laughlintown, Hegan and her husband, a Vietnam veteran and fellow former Democrat, also cites Trump as the motivating factor in her decision to switch parties this spring.

A lifelong Democrat, Hegan worked as a bartender in Ligonier until covid-19 health concerns prompted her to retire.

Hegan said she simply could not stomach how her fellow Democrats treated Trump.

I was ashamed to say I was a Democrat, Hegan said. Do I like Donald Trump as person? I absolutely do not. He is a blowhard, but he is what this country needed. He is smart. He is a businessman, and he had no ties to anyone. The Democratic Party has done nothing but try to get rid of him from the day he was elected.

They are not the party of the working man anymore like they were when my dad was alive, Hegan said. They want to get rid of fossil fuels. Do they know how many people that employs?

She attended Trumps airport rally near Latrobe with her 20-year-old grandson last month and came away certain she had made the right decision to become a Republican.

It was uplifting, she said.

Westmoreland red

Hegan was among 5,271 Westmoreland County Democrats who became Republicans during the first 10 months of 2020. They are part of an ongoing trend that has seen 22,597 Westmoreland Democrats become Republicans since 2008. Last year, that wave culminated in a Republican majority in a county that Democrats had ruled for more than half a century.

Although numbers like that suggest a motivated GOP, Paul S. Adams, a political scientist at the University of Pittsburgh at Greensburg, said that may not necessarily be the case.

I dont know that Republicans have any more energy than Democrats this year new registrations may or may not be meaningful, it is hard to know if they are really motivated voters. The GOP did big registration drives, but those voters may not be strong likely voters, Adams said.

Alison Dagnes, a political science professor at Shippensburg University in Southcentral Pennsylvania, said the numbers may reflect Democrats in Western and Northeastern Pennsylvania who had been voting Republican for years before switching.

If you look at how Pennsylvania has voted in the last several elections, to me the surprising thing was that Democrats had such a large margin over Republicans in voter registration. They had far more Republican state house members, and the state went for Trump in 2016, she said.

Even so, Dagnes sees the surge in GOP registration in Pennsylvania as a plus for the Trump campaign.

Those are definitely good numbers, but its really hard to hang your hat on voter registration, specifically because its a pretty complicated data point. The first thing I always go back to is voter registration does not connect one to one with how somebody votes, she said. And if you register folks to vote, can you get them to the polls on Election Day?

She said record voter registration in Pennsylvania and cross-party migration reflects how important the election has become to voters here.

The volume is up, and people are really furious, Dagnes said. They are really angry on both sides.

Deb Erdley is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Deb at 724-850-1209, derdley@triblive.com or via Twitter .

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Democrats still hold the edge, but Pennsylvania voter registration gains favor GOP - TribLIVE

With that pep talk and a friendly reminder to wear gloves and a mask, more than a dozen women hit the streets here this weekend for the first time in eight months, after being grounded by the pandemic as the Biden campaign made its organizing efforts entirely virtual.

"I can't tell you how excited I am to see full-bodied people," Eberly said. "You aren't just heads on Zoom."

The morning gathering in a driveway on Wedgewood Drive would have been entirely unremarkable during any other election season. But this year, it speaks to an anxiety-producing question being quietly raised by some veteran Democratic organizers: Can a virtual strategy replace an on-the-ground operation, typically the backbone of a winning Democratic campaign?

Trump has gone full speed ahead, with multiple rallies a day at the center of his game plan. Trump Victory, a joint operation of the campaign and the Republican National Committee, boasts of knocking on millions of doors, but it declined repeated CNN requests to observe its neighborhood efforts.

Advisers to Biden have embraced the contrast in their approach to campaigning during a pandemic, yet they ultimately gave the green light to socially distanced canvassing. They approved face-to-face, get-out-the-vote efforts for the final weeks of the race in more than a half-dozen key battleground states, including North Carolina, even as cases and hospitalizations rise.

North Carolina has more than 1.3 million new registered voters since 2016, which political strategists on both sides say makes organizing efforts even more important than in states with more static populations. Turnout, of course, holds the answer to the outcome of every election. But the methods of finding voters and getting them to the polls are being watched particularly closely this year, with much of the campaign being conducted virtually.

'They get to see me'

The Biden campaign's decision to return to on-the-ground get-out-the vote efforts was welcome news to Eberly and Scarlett Hollingsworth, her canvassing partner, both of whom spent much of the weekend knocking on doors in hopes of tracking down voters to ask about their plans to cast their ballots.

"I'm just so energized to be actually able to talk to voters face-to-face, because in the past that's always been how you judged how things were going," Eberly said. "Having been doing phone banking and other things digitally and virtually, I don't have that same sense this year."

Both women make clear that they supported the Biden team's decision to not allow door-knocking or face-to-face canvassing throughout the spring and summer in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. But they also said they wonder whether they've lost ground to Republicans, who revived their efforts months ago.

"The phone is great, but a lot of people don't answer numbers they don't really know," Hollingsworth said. "So you miss those conversations that you might have had at the door."

Helen Woods, who has invested hours talking with voters on the phone or through Zoom meetings for much of the year, said she was delighted when she learned she could grab a clipboard and start knocking on doors again in critical Charlotte neighborhoods.

"It's just wonderful to be able to actually see somebody, talk to somebody -- and they get to see me," Woods said, stopping to talk for a moment before setting off on her volunteer shift. "I think it's reassuring for them to see this little white-haired person coming to their door and saying it's OK to vote, and it's OK to be open about being Democratic."

Trump motivates both sides

In the stretch of the race, Trump remains the biggest motivating force of this campaign -- for supporters and opponents alike. He visited North Carolina twice in four days last week alone, including at an evening airport rally in Gastonia.

Four years ago, he won Gaston County, just west of Charlotte's Mecklenburg County, by more than 30 percentage points. To win the state again, he's trying to repeat -- or increase -- those margins.

"He energizes the crowd itself. It's just awesome," said Jim Gallagher, a Republican member of the Gastonia City Council who was on hand for the Trump rally last week. "I'm getting people calling me, asking me how they can help. These are people who have never done anything for a campaign.."

Jonathan Fletcher, chairman of the Gaston County Republican Party, said the President energizes his core supporters and attracts new ones by visiting his county. He said the Trump rallies are the best part of the campaign's get-out-the-vote efforts.

"Here and everywhere he goes -- that's the point of him going all of these places," Fletcher said. "If we can run up the score here, we're going to be able to balance out anything they can do in Mecklenburg."

Yet there is little question that Trump's presence also motivates his Democratic detractors. His visits draw considerable attention, as did one to the state on Sunday from Vice President Mike Pence, which only shined a brighter spotlight on the administration's handling of coronavirus.

Barack Obama narrowly carried the state in 2008, a victory that Democrats here still fondly remember. That winning campaign was built through traditional on-the-ground organizing efforts.

This time, Biden and Trump are locked in a tight race for the state's 15 electoral votes. For Trump, the state is critical in his path to winning 270 electoral votes. Biden has far more routes to the White House, but a North Carolina win would all but certainly block Trump's reelection.

For Biden and other Democratic candidates on the ballot, the level of turnout among Black voters is critical.

"There's plenty of people we know who vote in every election -- those people we're not going to worry about," said Terry Brown, a Democrat who is running for a Statehouse seat. "But the people who are on those fringes, we must make sure that we're speaking to them in a way to give them a reason to get out and vote.

Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles, a Democrat, said she thinks about organization and turnout efforts every day and wonders if enough work is being done. She acknowledged the pandemic creates a set of unknowns for traditional political organizing, particularly among Black voters.

But she believes Democrats -- and Republicans and independents who have soured on the President -- have a bigger motivating force that will overtake any particular organizing effort.

"People are living through a very difficult time in their lives," Lyles said in an interview. "This time has been framed by Covid and the President's lack of response for it. And that's why I think people are going to come out to vote."

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Democrats make cautious return to in-person organizing in the final stretch of 2020 - CNN

When Jill Biden toured Texas this month in support of her husbands presidential bid, her first stop was in El Paso, a more than 80% Hispanic city. She spoke there in front of a sign that read, Vota Ahora, or Vote Now.

"For the first time in a long time, winning Texas is possible, she said.

The setting seemed to be a nod to a political reality that most Democrats in the state acknowledge: If they are going to turn Texas blue this year, they need the help of Latino voters.

This election, Latinos will be the nations largest racial or ethnic minority voting group with 32 million projected to be able to vote 13.3% of all eligible voters, according to the Pew Research Center. In Texas, they make up 30% of eligible voters. Projections indicate Hispanics could become the largest population group in Texas as soon as mid-2021.

Democrats have long cited the states shifting demographics as evidence that its future is blue. But attempts to take full advantage have so far fallen short. Latino voter turnout has traditionally been low in the state. The party has often seen President Donald Trumps rhetoric about immigration and people of color as an opening to win over and motivate more Latino voters to come support its candidates at the polls. But since the March presidential primary in Texas, Biden has struggled to make gains with those voters. And Republicans in the state have long argued that the states Latino population is less liberal than many Democrats believe.

A Dallas Morning News poll found in August that Biden was leading against Trump among registered Latino voters in Texas by about 9.5 percentage points a margin much narrower than the 27-point margin Hillary Clinton had with those voters in Texas in 2016, according to exit polls. In October, a University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll showed Biden with a 17-point lead among Latino voters in Texas.

Biden lost the Latino vote to Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primary.

Still, many in the party see hope for this November. Despite a pandemic that has disproportionately affected Hispanic and Latino communities in Texas, a University of Houston and Univision poll found that 90% of Texas Latino voters will or will probably vote in the 2020 presidential election. And 79% responded that it is more important to vote in this election than it was to vote in the 2016 presidential election.

The outreach is coming from all areas: Democratic candidates up and down the ballot, groups devoted specifically to reaching Latino voters and even the party itself. Abhi Rahman, communications director for Texas Democrats, said the state party has registered 1.5 million voters in Texas since 2016. He said of those new voters, many are young Latinos. A national Telemundo-Buzzfeed News survey of Latino voters found that 60% of Latino voters between the ages of 18 and 34 planned to vote for Biden.

Jolt Action, a voter advocacy group, has been trying to increase voter turnout among young Latino voters in Texas. According to a study it co-conducted, an annual average of nearly 210,000 Latinos already living in Texas will turn the eligible voting age of 18 each year from 2018 to 2028. Antonio Arellano, interim director for the group, said the 214,000 votes Democrat Beto ORourke needed to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 can now be found in the young Latino constituency.

The Latino electorate is young, so if you win them over, you dont just win them just for one election cycle, you win them for generations to come, Arellano said.

Jason Villalba, a former Republican member of the Texas House of Representatives and president of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation, said if Biden is able to replicate ORourkes success in turning out young Latino voters, he may have a chance of flipping the state. He said that much of the relative weakness Biden has shown with regard to Latino voters in Texas can be blamed on outreach and lack of name recognition in Texas compared with Clinton in 2016.

And he said Sanders won the demographic in the March primary because he employed much of the same engagement and infrastructure of ORourkes 2018 Senate campaign with young Latino voters.

Right before Super Tuesday, a poll from the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement found that 70% of Texas Latino voters between the ages of 18 and 29 said they had not been contacted by a campaign during the 2020 primaries.

Historically, the fact that Latinos havent voted is not their fault, Arellano said. Its that nobody has cared enough in activating them and speaking directly to them and mobilizing them.

Organizations like Jolt and MOVE Texas, a nonpartisan nonprofit that aims to empower underrepresented young people in Texas to engage in politics and advocacy, are trying to make up for what many campaigns havent done in the past, like knocking on doors in underrepresented communities and mailing voter registration forms to young Black and brown voters.

First-time voters need support. They need to know what are the registration rules and when are the deadlines and what is on the ballot, you know, just kind of bread and butter things, said Charlie Bonner, communications director for MOVE Texas. Many first-time voters need to be empowered with that information to actually take them from getting registered to voting, and campaigns aren't doing that again and again and again.

But while reaching new voters and getting them to the polls is always a challenge, it has become even more difficult during the pandemic. Groups like MOVE and Jolt say they are adjusting their strategies accordingly. Arellano said Jolt is mailing out literature on candidates, text banking, phone banking and pushing out targeted ads all to make sure that young Latino voters know that their community is under attack by the Trump administration.

The reason that you see Latinos discriminated against and targeted by this administration is because were the biggest threat to the status quo, Arellano said. We have now, in our hands, the opportunity to not just transform Texas, but with 38 electoral votes, to transform America.

During the 2016 election, Trump attacked unauthorized immigrants who crossed the border from Mexico to Texas, calling them rapists and animals at his rallies and in his speeches. The chant build that wall was shouted at nearly every one of his events, and his supporters feared that immigrants were going to take away American jobs, as Trump would tell them.

Among his actions in office, Trump has implemented a zero tolerance policy to require the arrest of any illegal immigrant crossing the border, which caused the separation of children from their families. He also expanded the size of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and its "enforcement priorities" for deportation and attempted to end President Barack Obamas Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals.

Henry R. Muoz III, founder of the Latino Victory Fund and former national finance chair for the Democratic National Committee, said these "attacks" will be the reason why Latinos will turn out in big numbers for Democrats this year despite the pandemic.

Theres a lot happening in Texas, and it is all trending away from anyone who would call you names, doesnt have your best interest at heart, would separate your families from each other, call you things like a liar or a rapist, Muoz said.

But Villalba said Democrats shouldnt be so sure that Latinos in Texas are going to mobilize or vote for Biden because of that and should be careful in assuming that a majority of them will vote for Democratic candidates.

Each weekend in the Rio Grande Valley, over 500 cars parade around neighborhoods with Latinos for Trump and Make America Great Again signs and flags, registering people to vote and encouraging others to show their support for the president. Organizer Eva America Arechia said she came up with the idea after attending the Trump boat parade on Lake Travis.

Were pro-law and pro-God. We want law and order, and we want God in our country, Arechia said of her Latino community. Were conservative people. We are going to have traditional values.

In 2018 a midterm election that many across the country saw as a backlash against Trump Republicans in Texas managed to win over a significant share of Latino voters. Thirty-five percent voted for Cruz, and 42% voted for Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.

Ivan Andarza, a member of the Hispanic Republicans of Texas PAC board, believes Latinos are the reason Texas will remain red for years to come, since the Democratic party is moving in a more liberal direction.

They know that here, no matter where youre from or what your background is, you can make it if you work hard, and that message resonates, especially with Hispanics, Andarza said. We [Republicans] always hammer hard on that because that is how we are going to progress, through work, education very important, education is a great equalizer so that is very important to us. And in particular, this year, law and order is a big deal.

But Democrats say Republicans shouldnt be so sure that younger Latinos hold the same beliefs as their parents or grandparents.

South Texas, for instance, is home to several moderate Democratic elected officials. But two of the most prominent felt real pressure in the March primary. Progressive candidate Jessica Cisneros opposed U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Laredo, in the Democratic primary. Cuellar describes himself as a moderate centrist and is pro-gun, anti-abortion and anti-union.

The fact that we came up with 48.2% of the vote as a first-time 26-year-old candidate says a lot about where South Texas is heading, Cisneros said of her narrow loss to Cuellar, who won 51.84% of the vote.

Like Cuellar, longtime Texas state Sen. Eddie Lucio Jr. of Brownsville, who is an anti-abortion Democrat, faced a competitive primary in South Texas against progressive Sara Stapleton-Barrera. He won with 54% of the vote.

Seeing untapped potential in that region, Rahman said the Texas Democratic Party is investing in television ads targeting Latino communities in South Texas, running them in both English and Spanish. It also hired a Spanish press secretary on the ground there.

If we were to actually increase the voter turnout by 15[%] or 20%, kind of like in the last election cycle when Beto ran for Senate, he probably would have won if we turned out South Texas in even higher numbers, Cisneros said. And I think that was one of the messages from the last cycle that a lot of people are taking to heart, to make sure that we are investing in this area because I think one of the things, again, that we showed in our campaign was that voters are out there waiting to be engaged and be brought into the political process.

If Texas flips blue for Biden, Michelle Tremillo, executive director and co-founder of the Texas Organizing Project, said credit should be given to the organizations that have been mobilizing and reaching out to underrepresented communities despite his campaigns recent efforts in the state. Her organization, working in coalition with other organizations, has contacted 1.4 million voters in Harris County, Fort Bend County, Dallas County and Bexar County all counties crucial to the outcome of how Texas may decide the fate of the presidential election.

Texas will not have flipped overnight, Tremillo said. This is a decade worth of hard work on the behalf of several progressive organizations.

Disclosure: MOVE Texas, the University of Texas at Austin and the University of Houston have been financial supporters of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

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In Democrats' bid to flip Texas, maximizing the Latino vote is key - The Texas Tribune