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Democrats running to replace the late U.S. Rep. Ron Wright, R-Arlington, believe they can flip the seat in an unpredictable off-year special election. But Democrats at large are not as sure or willing to say it out loud.

That is becoming clear as campaigning ramps up for the May 1 contest, when 23 candidates including 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats will be on the ballot in Texas 6th Congressional District. With so many contenders, the race is likely to go to a mid-summer runoff, and Democrats involved hope they can secure a second-round spot on their way to turning the district blue.

While Democrats have cause for optimism the district has rapidly trended blue in recent presidential election results some are urging caution. They are mindful of a few factors, not the least of which is a 2020 election cycle in which high Democratic expectations culminated in deep disappointment throughout the ballot.

Were not counting our chickens before they hatch and were gonna work to earn every vote, said Abhi Rahman, a Texas Democratic strategist who previously worked for the state party. This is not a bellwether. This is the first of many battles that will eventually lead to Texas turning blue.

With just under a month until early voting begins, national Democrats are showing few outward signs that they are ready to engage in the race, even as candidates and their supporters press the case that the district is flippable. They point out that Trump carried the district by only 3 percentage points in November after winning it by 12 points in 2016. Mitt Romney carried the district by 17 points in 2012.

It absolutely is a competitive race, said Stephen Daniel, the 2020 Democratic nominee for the seat, who opted against running in the special election. He added he thinks that national Democrats need to get involved because I think the more resources you have to get out there and help you reach these voters can only help.

On the flip side, Wright, who died in February weeks after testing positive for the coronavirus, won the seat when it was open in 2018 by 8 points and by 9 points in 2020. Both times the seat was a target of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, though the designation came late in the cycle and the group did not spend significant money in either election.

And while Trump carried the district by only 3 points in November, every other statewide Republican candidate, including U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, won it by more comfortable margins ranging from 6 to 8 points.

Whether to engage could be an especially difficult decision for the DCCC, which made a show of going on offense in Texas last cycle, opening an office in Austin early on and building a target list that grew to include 10 Republican-held districts, including Wrights. They ended up flipping none of them.

Asked for comment for this story, a DCCC spokesperson pointed to comments that the committees chairman, Sean Patrick Maloney, made to The Washington Post in mid-February. Asked if the DCCC would compete in the special election, Maloney said the committee was looking at it but that Democratic members were currently focused on helping constituents recover from the deadly winter storm that had just battered the state at the time.

Democrats make up 10 candidates in the 23-way race. The more prominent Democratic candidates include Jana Lynne Sanchez, the partys 2018 nominee for the seat; Lydia Bean, the Democratic challenger last year to state Rep. Matt Krause, R-Fort Worth; and Shawn Lassiter, an education nonprofit leader from Fort Worth.

EMILYs List, the powerful national group that works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, is in touch with the Democratic women running in the special election and watching the race closely but currently has no plans to endorse, spokesperson Kristen Hernandez said. The organization backed Sanchez when she was the nominee in 2018 but is often more cautious about taking sides when multiple Democratic women are running in a primary or special election.

It is still somewhat early relative to the special election timeline the filing deadline was March 3 but at least two Republican contenders are already running TV ads, and some Democrats worry they could get locked out of the runoff if the national party does not start paying closer attention.

Lassiter, in a statement for this story, said Democrats cannot sit on the sidelines and watch the failed leadership of the Republicans be a disservice to our communities.

Texas' 6th is eager to elect someone who represents our growing diversity and who has the political courage to serve the people, Lassiter said. With the right candidate and with Democratic investment, we can flip this district and win.

Lassiter is one of at least two Black Democrats running, one other being Mansfield pastor Patrick Moses. Twenty-seven percent of 2020 Democratic primary voters in the district were African American, according to the Lassiter campaign's analysis. Thirty-three percent were Black in the lower-turnout 2018 primary.

Lassiter is not the only candidate contemplating a potential all-GOP runoff. A recent polling memo provided to another Democratic campaign warned that a Democratic lockout is a real danger.

Kelly Blackburn, chairwoman of the Ellis County Democratic Party, said she thinks some people will start coalescing toward or one or two [Democratic candidates] by April, but well see. As for investment in the race by national Democrats, she said she would welcome it, and Im sure the candidates would as well.

If we really wanna fight for it, I think we need more money and big money, Blackburn said.

The Republican side is headlined by veteran GOP activist Susan Wright, Ron Wrights widow. Some of her most serious-looking GOP competitors include state Rep. Jake Ellzey of Waxahachie and Brian Harrison, the former chief of staff at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services under President Donald Trump; and Sery Kim, another former Trump administration official. One wild card is Dan Rodimer, the former professional wrestler who ran for Congress last year in Nevada and scrambled to file last-minute for the Texas special election.

Some of the Democrats are already finding convenient foils in the GOP field. Bean has repeatedly called out Rodimer on social media and sent fundraising emails targeting Harrison at length, deriding him as Bootlicker Brian. (He has taken encouragement from the attacks.)

For now, though, the Democrats may have to focus on differences among themselves if they want to advance to an anticipated runoff against a Republican.

During one of their first major forums last week, the Democratic field was largely harmonious. Sanchez and Bean leaned heavily on their previous campaign experience to argue they were best positioned to turn out Democrats for the special election. Sanchez also brought up a sore subject for Democrats last election cycle.

I think we saw from 2020, where down-ballot was extremely disappointing, despite all of our efforts, that what was missing was the door-knocking, and you cant substitute TV for door-knocking so its very important to me that we continue that, Sanchez said, adding that she had already hired two field staffers and her campaign is going to be door-knocking every day and I will be out there as well.

You may remember that just four months ago, I ran for the Texas House here in Tarrant County and we had one of the strongest field programs in the whole state of Texas, said Bean, who also touts that she raised over $1 million in her November challenge to Krause, who won by 9 points.

Bean got one of the first major endorsements among Democratic candidates last week, unveiling the support of the Tarrant County AFL-CIO. Sanchez, meanwhile, launched with $100,000 raised and a list of 10 endorsements from across the district, and she has led the Democratic field in the two private surveys of the race that have surfaced so far, though large shares of respondents were undecided in each.

National Republicans are dismissive of Democratic ambitions in the district. In a statement for this story, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, Torunn Sinclair, said Democrats should be talking less about their laughable prospects in Texas 6th Congressional District and spending more time fixing the border crisis theyve created.

Still, some of the GOP candidates are not discounting how competitive it could be for Democrats, if only because it reinforces their campaign strategies. After Ellzey launched his campaign, he emailed supporters that he was running because he heard from people in the district that they dont want liberals taking away our voice in Congress.

I think the Democrats could flip this seat, Harrison said in an interview, putting an emphasis on could.

Theyre gonna throw everything at it, and thats why the Republicans absolutely have to rally for the strongest possible candidate in the field, Harrison added, pitching himself as the only contender with deep roots in the district, small-business experience here and a track record of going to Washington and making change.

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Democrats have mixed outlooks for Texas Congressional District 6 election - The Texas Tribune

Former Secretary of State Mike PompeoMike PompeoWill diplomacy work with Iran? Blinken and Sullivan stand up to China will Biden back them up? Why is the Biden administration more interested in confrontation than cooperation? MORE blastedDemocrats over their efforts to pass an election reform bill during his visit to Iowa on Friday, which came amid speculation abouta possible presidential run in 2024.

Pompeo made his remarks at the Westside Conservative Club in Iowa, Fox News reported. Headdressed the criticism ofH.R.1, the election reform and campaign finance bill that the Democratic-led House passedearlier in March along party lines.

Watch what the Democrats are doing. This is a raw power grab," Pompeo said, according to Fox News.

Democrats have made election reform a priority amid GOP-controlled legislatures seeking to impose more restrictive voting rules. The Biden administration is also supported the measure.

But Republicans have railed against the bill, arguing that it allows for ballot harvesting.

The Democrats' efforts to enact the new voting legislation comes as Republicans across the country pass their own voting overhauls. Georgia Gov. Brian KempBrian KempThe Hill's Morning Report - Biden shifts on filibuster Liberals think Biden just made getting rid of the filibuster easier Warnock visits Georgia state Rep. Cannon at jail after arrest: 'She did not deserve this' MORE (R)signed a bill into lawon Thursday restricting the use of ballot drop boxes and requiring photo ID for absentee ballots. The law has already been met with a legal challenge.

Pompeo called that bill a good one," according to Fox News.

His visit also came as Democrat Rita Hart is challenging the results of her House race against Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), who won by an ultra-slim margin.

"You all are living the part where theyre going to try and steal the seat from an Iowa congresswoman," Pompeo told the crowd in reference to the election challenge, Fox News reported. "Dont let it happen. Dont let it happen. This is outrageous."

PompeosIowa visit hasfueled more speculation that he will seek the GOP nomination for president, given that the state holds the first caucus.

In addressing the speculation, Pompeo said he was going to Iowa to help Republicans prevail in the 2022 midterms, Fox News reported. He also jokingly said, Im headed down to Alabama, which I think will provide cover for coming to Iowa."

Pompeo didnt rule out a possible bid in an interview with Sean HannitySean Patrick HannityLara Trump 'absolutely' considering Senate run Biden sees himself as a two-term president Worst person in America contest? MOREearlier this month.

Im always up for a good fight, Pompeo told Hannity. I care deeply about America. You and I have been a part of the conservative movement for an awfully long time now. I aim to keep at it.

C-SPAN is expected to air Pompeos Iowa speechon Friday, in what Axios reported was the beginning of the networks 2024 coverage.

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Pompeo in Iowa slams Democrats over 'raw power grab' | TheHill - The Hill

A majority of Americans, about 55 percent, approve of President Bidens job performance so far, whereas about 39 percent disapprove. Those are pretty good numbers for a president in this polarized era. And for Democrats to keep control of the U.S. House and Senate next November, Biden will probably need to keep his approval ratings in this vicinity. Thats unlikely, but possible, because of some broader shifts happening in American politics.

Why should we focus on presidential approval ratings when we are thinking about next years midterms? For two reasons. First of all, we dont yet have a lot of other data to rely on. In most House and Senate races, its not even clear who the (non-incumbent) candidates will be. Most pollsters arent yet asking respondents the so-called generic ballot question If the next election were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic or the Republican candidate? And while generic ballot polling has historically provided a reliably rough preview of eventual midterm results, rough is the key word here. FiveThirtyEights average of pre-2020 generic ballot polls suggested that Democrats would have a sizable advantage in last years House races (a popular vote margin of around +7 percentage points, about 50 to 43), but the final results were more narrow (about +3 points, 51 to 48).

Second and more importantly, presidential approval ratings in recent years have been a decent indicator of what will happen in the midterms. In the last four (2006, 2010, 2014, 2018), the incumbent presidents disapproval rating was higher than his approval, and in all four cases, the presidents party lost a sizable bloc of House seats. (The Senate results arent quite as tied to presidential approval.) The last time the presidents party gained House seats in a midterm election was in 2002, when George W. Bush had sky-high ratings in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. So, when we talk about the pattern that the presidents party nearly always loses congressional seats in the midterms, part of what seems to be happening is that the American electorate becomes somewhat disillusioned with a president after electing or reelecting him (or wants to check his power) and then backs the opposite partys congressional candidates.

Relationship between presidential approval ratings and results for the presidents party in House midterm elections

Presidential approval and disapproval ratings come from FiveThirtyEights approval ratings tracker for the day before the midterm election for each year cited.

Sources: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives; The American Presidency Project

And presidential approval ratings are becoming even more predictive as American politics are increasingly partisan and president-centered. The Obama and Trump presidencies suggest that the overwhelming majority of voters lean toward either the Democrats or the Republicans and approve of presidents from their own party and disapprove of presidents from the opposite party.

And those mostly partisan approval numbers translate to mostly partisan voting: More and more, voters cast ballots for candidates from the same party in both presidential and congressional elections. So, in November 2018, then-President Trump had a 42 percent approval rating, compared with a 53 percent disapproval rating. Democrats won about 53 percent of the national U.S. House vote, overwhelmingly from people who disapproved of Trump. Republicans slightly outpaced Trumps approval and won 45 percent of the House vote, mostly from people who approved of the president.

On Election Day in 2020, 45 percent of Americans approved of Trump, compared with 53 percent who disapproved. Biden won about 51 percent of the popular vote, as did House Democrats (so just slightly below Trumps disapproval). Trump won nearly 47 percent, similar to House Republicans (48 percent) and again just slightly above his approval rating. So, in both 2018 and 2020, presidential approval/disapproval tracked closely with the House popular vote. And because congressional and presidential voting are now both so tied to partisanship, we have a record-low number of House districts 16 where the member isnt from the same party that the district backed for president.

Of course, theres no guarantee that the close link between presidential approval ratings and House results will continue. Perhaps Trump made American politics particularly centered around him, so some voters in next years elections will approve of Bidens job performance but still back GOP congressional candidates. One big danger for Democrats in the 2022 midterms is the potential of differential turnout Republicans voting at higher levels than Democrats, with conservative voters more motivated to vote against congressional Democrats aligned with Biden than liberals are to essentially maintain the status quo. This happened in 2018, when people who had voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 voted at slightly higher rates than those who had backed Trump in 2016. So its possible that Bidens approval rating is 55 percent among American adults on election day 2022 but is several percentage points lower among people who actually vote.

And even if presidential approval ratings remain closely linked to the overall House vote and Biden maintains a rating in the mid-50s, that doesnt guarantee Democrats will win the House. Weve had a few elections in a row now where polls, on balance, slightly overstated support for Democratic candidates and politicians and understated support for GOP ones. That doesnt mean the same thing will happen again in the midterms, but its easy to imagine the eventual electorate in 2022 will be a little more Republican-leaning than Bidens approval rating suggests. And Democrats have very little margin for error. Republicans have a built-in head start in House races right now not only because of GOP gerrymandering but because Democratic-leaning voters disproportionately live in urban areas while Republicans are more spread out into exurban, suburban and rural districts. So a 50-50 popular vote margin would almost certainly give the GOP control of the House.

Moreover, Republicans have much more control over the redistricting process than Democrats, so they could draw lines even more favorable to them before next years elections. Republicans in many states are also trying to limit the ability of liberal-leaning Americans to vote or have their votes counted. So its possible that even, say, a 52 percent to 47 percent Democratic advantage in the aggregate popular vote in House races would translate to a Republican-controlled House.

Put simply: If Biden could maintain an approval rating in the mid-50s, it would be a huge help to Democrats in particular, House candidates in swing districts and Democratic Senate candidates in competitive states such as Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And if Biden could push his approval rating into the high 50s, its hard to imagine Democrats losing the House or the Senate.

How likely is it for Biden to maintain or improve his current approval?

Its hard to say. History would suggest that Biden is likely to be less popular in November 2022 than he is today, but were not sure how much of that history applies.

The pre-Trump pattern in presidential approval had typically been that a new president entered office with relatively high ratings (at or above 55 percent) and then those numbers gradually declined during his first two years. But that pattern may be over. Trump never had much of a honeymoon: He began at around 46 percent approval, and his ratings remained fairly stable throughout his presidency. Biden started off at around 53 percent higher than his immediate predecessor but not as high as other recent presidents. (Another interesting point: Bidens approval rating is nearly the inverse of his predecessors: Trumps approval was mostly in the low 40s, and his disapproval was mostly in the mid-50s; Bidens approval is in the mid-50s, and his disapproval in the high 30s.)

Its plausible that no matter what Biden does, his approval ratings will dip in the run-up to the midterms, as pre-Trump presidents did, because voters tend to sour some on the incumbent. Alternatively, its plausible that we are in a new normal of American politics, with a large GOP bloc, a slightly larger Democratic bloc that includes the majority of Americans and voters who are really locked into their party, so nothing really shifts those fundamental dynamics. That would explain why Bidens approval rating is basically the same as Trumps disapproval rating was, and why Bidens disapproval is so close to Trumps approval.

And finally, its plausible that what actually happens in Bidens presidency day-to-day matters. The president and his team are trying to implement a strategy that they think will keep his popularity up: improve the economy and deal with COVID-19 effectively, sell those successes to American voters and tone down the partisan divide in Washington. Republicans have a strategy too: keep up partisan tensions in Washington; attack Biden on policy matters like immigration, where he is unlikely to have clear successes; and highlight issues that are likely to divide voters based on competing racial and cultural attitudes, such as the controversy over the discontinuation of some Dr. Seuss books because of racist imagery.

Of course real-life events will affect Bidens approval ratings, you might say. Sure, but thats been true only marginally of late. Economic conditions are less correlated to presidential approval than in the past. And, as I noted earlier, none of the incredible things that happened in Trumps presidency (the Mueller report, Trumps 2019 impeachment, the COVID-19 outbreak) shifted his approval ratings much until the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, which did cause a notable dip.

So watch Bidens approval rating closely. Its likely to be an indication of how well Democrats will do in next years elections. But its also likely to be an indication of how American politics today work more broadly. Is America locked in an intractable partisan uncivil war, where Team Blue represents a slight but clear majority and every election is super-close? Or maybe neither Team Blue nor Team Red has a majority and instead both are at about 45 percent, with a fairly large and meaningful bloc of people who either swing between the parties (often against the presidents party) or dont vote at all during midterm elections (mostly from the presidents party)? Or can the president and his actions meaningfully shift the political dynamics and create a 55-45 or 57-43 electorate if he is viewed as effective, or alternatively, a 43-57 electorate if he is viewed as particularly ineffective? We shall see over the next 19-plus months.

Originally posted here:

Why Democrats In Congress Need Bidens Approval Rating To Stay Where It Is - FiveThirtyEight

Congressional Democrats are introducing legislation to transfer $1bn in funding from a controversial new intercontinental ballistic missile to the development of a universal Covid vaccine.

The Investing in Cures Before Missiles (ICBM) Act, introduced in the House and Senate on Friday, would stop funding on the proposed new missile, known as the ground-based strategic deterrent (GBSD) which is projected to cost a total of $264bn over its projected lifespan, and discontinue spending on a linked warhead modification program.

Instead, the life of the existing US intercontinental ballistic missile, the Minuteman III, would be extended until 2050, and an independent study commissioned on how best to do that.

The United States should invest in a vaccine of mass prevention before another new land-based weapon of mass destruction, Senator Edward Markey of Massachusetts, co-author of the bill, said.

The ICBM Act makes clear that we can begin to phase out the cold-war nuclear posture that risks accidental nuclear war while still deterring adversaries and assuring allies, and redirect those savings to the clear and present dangers presented by coronaviruses and other emerging and infectious diseases.

Arms control experts say static intercontinental ballistic missiles, of which the US has 400 in silos across the northern midwest, are inherently destabilizing and dangerous, because a president would have just a few minutes to launch them on the basis of early warning signals of an impending enemy attack, or risk losing them to a pre-emptive strike. They point to a history of near-launches based on defective data, and the risk of cyber-attacks distorting early warning systems.

With all of the global challenges we face, the last thing we should be doing is giving billions to defense contractors to build missiles we dont need to keep as a strong nuclear deterrence, Ro Khanna, Democratic congressman from California and the bills co-author in the House, said.

In September 2020, Northrop Grumman was awarded an uncontested bid for the $13.3bn engineering, manufacturing and development phase of GBSD, after its only rival for the vast contract, Boeing, pulled out of the race complaining of a rigged competition.

The Biden administrations intentions on the GBSDs future are unclear, but an early signal may come in its first defence budget expected in the next few weeks.

The new ICBM bill would transfer of $1bn in funding for the GBSD to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Niaid) for development work on a universal coronavirus vaccine. It would also divert money from the program to modify the W87-1 nuclear warhead to fit the GBSD, and dedicate it to research and preparations to combat future bio-threats. And it would launch an independent study to explore viable technical solutions to extend the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile to 2050.

When Khanna tried to introduce a similar bill last July it was killed in the House armed services committee by a decisive bipartisan vote of 44-12. A proposed Minuteman extension study was also voted down.

Rarely is a congressional study controversial. This just shows how afraid Northrop Grumman is about the results of the independent study, Khanna told the Guardian. They lobbied to kill a simple study, to see if the Minuteman III could be extended.

The congressman said he was optimistic the new administration would support the bill.

This will remain an uphill battle. Northrop Grumman is lobbying hard against this bill, Khanna said. Given we have Democratic majorities in both chambers and a Democrat in the White House, we think our chances are better, particularly by putting pressure on the administration to pause GBSD and consider extending Minuteman III.

Jessica Sleight, the program director at Global Zero, a disarmament advocacy group, said: The US nuclear arsenal far exceeds any plausible mission requirements put forth by the Pentagon. Even in the best of times, $264bn for new nuclear missiles is money we cant spare for weapons we dont need. In the middle of a devastating pandemic, its irresponsible.

Excerpt from:

Democrats call for $1bn shift from weapons of mass destruction to 'vaccine of mass prevention' - The Guardian

In the aftermath of last weeks mass shooting in Georgia that killed eight people, political leaders and the Asian American community are grieving and calling for justice.

Let me start off by saying this: The role of an activist is not the same as the role of a politician. That has been true of grassroots campaigns and activists campaigns since the beginning of time. It was true during the civil rights movement, said Guy Cecil, chair of Priorities USA, during a recent briefing with reporters. Having said that, in the aggregate, when you look at the totality of the election, defund the police in the aggregate neither helped nor hurt the cause.

One analysis by a Democratic consultant, provided exclusively to POLITICO, measured the effectiveness of GOP attack ads on defunding the police. House candidates recently shared the report to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, according to a person familiar with their communications.

Matthew Weaver, an adviser for battleground Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.), said he conducted the study because he wanted to look at it in a very rigorous and statistical way, as opposed to via anecdotes, which is where a lot of the debate seems to be right now.

His findings: The GOP attack ads accusing Democrats of wanting to strip resources from cops were not any more powerful than other TV spots run by Republicans. On the other hand, Democratic ads that refuted the GOPs claims that they were looking to defund the police made a difference: Those candidates who aired such spots performed better than President Joe Biden by 1.5 percentage points for every 1,000 gross ratings points a measure of advertising impact run.

The lesson, Weaver said, is that not addressing certain false allegations explicitly and head-on is a strategic error that many cannot afford to make. But only a quarter of House Democratic candidates in the most contested races countered the GOPs blitz on broadcast television, he said.

The DCCC may be part of the reason why. During the 2020 election, some at the committee advised Cartwright not to reply on TV because candidates should never repeat a negative, said a person close to the conversations. With the help of a former local police chief who backed him up, Cartwright ultimately shot down the defund idea in ads anyway, and he won his competitive district by nearly four points; Biden lost it by more than four.

The DCCC is now under new leadership: New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney became chair after the election. Helen Kalla, a spokesperson for the DCCC, did not respond directly to questions about the discussions with Cartwright or where it stands now on the issue.

As for its preparations for attacks over defunding the police in the future, she said, We expect that Republicans will continue spreading lies and misinformation about our candidates and their positions, and Democrats will be ready to combat those Republican lies and make clear to voters where they stand.

Cartwright, an attorney by trade, said that he decided to respond to his opponents negative ads because he decided they were a kill shot an attack, which if believed by the decision-maker, either a jury or, in politics, the voter, will end your chance of success. He called Weavers analysis fascinating.

Cartwright confirmed that there were voices at the DCCC who were giving the archetypal when youre responding, youre losing advice. But once he explained, for instance, the large number of lawn signs in his district expressing support for police including in yards without any campaign signs at all others at the committee supported his efforts to push back.

Once they got the picture, Cartwright said, "they were all in."

Some of Priorities USAs findings were similar to Weavers. During a Zoom briefing with reporters last week, Cecil said the net effect of Republican attack ads over defunding the police was neither negative nor positive.

Certainly there are people that respond negatively to defund the police. There are people that respond in our surveys by the way, of all races, all income brackets, that respond negatively to defund the police, he said. What's also true is that the activism and the energy and the attention that was brought to this issue, without a doubt, led to more votes, and more voters coming into the fold for the first time.

Another item from Priorities USAs research demonstrates how potent Democrats response to this issue and racial justice could be in the midterms: Asked about their decision to go to the polls, 91 percent of new Biden voters said "they wanted someone that would address racism and stand up for racial justice, said Cecil.

Many activists say they are not arguing for the wholesale elimination of police funding but rather the reallocation of resources.

There is another effort underway that will likely play a major role in influencing the debate around the net political effects of defund: a Democratic post-mortem being done with the help of the CBC, CHC, CPC and other caucus groups.

The partnership of centrist and liberal groups examining the impact of the call to remove funding from the police, along with other hot-button issues such as socialism and the Green New Deal, includes Third Way, Collective PAC, Latino Victory Fund and End Citizens United. No conclusions from the report have been made yet, and it will be finished around the end of May, said Matt Bennett, a co-founder of Third Way.

Given the fact that the study is being aided by both moderates and progressives, as well as powerful institutional players such as the CBC, its findings could go in multiple directions and will likely have a big impact.

At the same time, Black Lives Matter activists are discussing the possibility of holding a press conference or making some other kind of formal response to moderates claims, said Maurice Mitchell, national director of the Working Families Party and a leader in the Movement for Black Lives coalition. They considered the option last year but deprioritized it because they were busy in the aftermath of former President Donald Trumps efforts to overturn the election as well as the insurrection at the Capitol, he said.

I do think that there is a conversation that needs to happen that puts Democrats on notice around what our movement would consider harmful to our efforts in their efforts to push back on these attacks, he said. If they buttress themselves with law enforcement validators and tried to prove that they were more law-and-order than Republicans, then what you're doing is you're ceding and youre re-ascribing these far-right myths that make it harder for Democrats and harder for people in general to be able to critique and challenge what is by most measures a failing criminal legal system.

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A conversation that needs to happen: Democrats agonize over defund the police fallout - POLITICO

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom is already facing attacks from Republicans and a fellow Democrat as he heads into a recall election later this year. Meanwhile, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is trying to balance complicated state and local politics in the lead-up to his own reelection bid this fall. Murphy has already seen the effects of the Biden administrations national strategy for vaccine production and other pandemic-mitigation measures, he told me. Murphy isnt focused yet on his campaign or how this or other issues might play into it, he added, but he was proud to tick through the progress his state has made since the lockdown began. More than 900,000 of New Jerseys 1.3 million children are now participating in at least some form of in-person education, and Murphy hopes to get all students back to school in person, Monday through Friday, by September 1. For the interim, Murphys administration has provided students with hundreds of thousands of computers for remote learning. (A year ago, 231,000 New Jersey students didnt have access to a computer. As of this month, that number is down to just 39 students statewide, according to the Murphy administration.)

But New Jersey also hosts some of the nations most intractable fights over reopeningmost notably in Montclair, in the northern part of the state, where teachers have gone to court to fight against returning to their classrooms.

Murphy is a father of four, with two children still in high school, so he said he feels the impact of the school-reopening battle at home. Is your kids education at or near the top of any mom or dads list of things that are important to them in life? Absolutely. Theres no two ways about thatand its more so in the pandemic, he told me. He said hes confident hell have good news by the fall. Some states compete by having the lowest taxes. Some states compete by having no capacity limits in their restaurants or no requirements to wear face masks, he said. We compete with the No. 1 public-education system in America, and we intend to keep it that way.

In the meantime, the standoffs around the country among politicians, parents, and teachers have the potential to fuel voter backlash. Parents who want their kids back in the classroom and on the playground are unlikely to be satisfied by the addition of critical race theory to curricula or the removal of Lincolns and Washingtons names from schools. Trump spoke to many Americans anger about school closures, Cooper told me. Its not hard to see how Republicans other than Trump could capitalize on that anger.

The Biden administrations goal is to have the majority of K8 students in at least some form of in-person school by the end of next month, Cardona told NBC News last week. Cooper isnt impressed. Everyone involved could do more if they wanted to, he said. The CDCs decision to reduce the six-foot social-distancing restriction in schools to three feet, which will facilitate having children in classrooms, is a change he was hoping for. (Weingarten says shes not yet ready to say that schools should accept that change.) But theres more to do. He has his own children on a waitlist for a Catholic school that has been open for months, and he said he would eagerly move his children there if given the chance. Weingartens response on the CDC change, he told me, shows that nothings ever going to be good enough. Theyre only willing to listen to the science that allows them to give an excuse to the large districts, which remain closed.

If Jill Biden, Randi Weingarten, and [CDC Director] Rochelle Walensky said tomorrow, Schools should open five days a week as soon as possible, they would be open in a few weeks, Cooper said. They have incredible power, yet they act powerless when theyre asked for support.

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Democrats Are Failing the Schools Test - The Atlantic

MANKATO, Minnesota (AP) Mary McGaw grew up in a Republican home on the rural prairie of south central Minnesota. But as she moved from her tiny town of Amboy to the nearest city of Mankato to study nursing, her politics migrated, too.

McGaw was moved by the plight of underinsured and became concerned about the viability of safety programs. She cast her vote for Democrat Joe Biden in November, and three months later she is pleased with how hard the new president is fighting for his priorities.

Hes trying to get something done, even though theres pushback from all sides, said the 37-year-old registered nurse, who now works at a Mankato branch of the Mayo Clinic.

Counties that went Bidens way in 2020 after favoring Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016 tend to be home to universities or large medical centers that draw educated and racially diverse newcomers. Their economies are better than average.

McGaws transformation is driving Democrats hopes as they charge into what the party considers its new frontier: small-city America.

As Democrats continue to lose votes in small towns, theyve seen clear gains in regional hubs that dot stretches of rural America. Biden carried roughly 60 counties President Donald Trump won in 2016, many were places anchored by a midsize or small city that is trending Democratic. They include places like Grand Rapids, Mich.; Wilmington, N.C.; Dayton, Ohio; and Mankatos Blue Earth County.

Their similarities are striking: Most include universities or, like Mankato, large medical centers that draw educated and racially diverse newcomers. Their economies are better than average. And in 2020, their voters showed a bipartisan streak voting for Biden for president and Republicans downballot in large numbers.

These voters are in line with Bidens personal brand, said Robert Griffin, research director for the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, a bipartisan demographic and public opinion team. Hes pegged as a moderate Democrat, rightly. But hes also making sure theres room for moderation in the party.

Biden won Blue Earth County by 4.5 percentage points, about the same percentage Democrat Hillary Clinton lost it by in 2016. In November, voters in the area dumped 30-year Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson, arguably the most conservative Democrat in Congress, but reelected two Democratic state lawmakers.

Interviews with voters around Mankato help make sense of this partisan zigzagging.

While there remains support for Trump, voters stress that action carries more weight than ideological purity. Even devout Democratic activists who wish the new $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid package Bidens chief legislative accomplishment so far contained more arent frustrated.

See: Biden played Sheriff Joe role in rollout of 2009s recovery package this time around he is being cast as salesman-in-chief

Sure, I wish it had contained the $15 minimum wage, said Jim Hepworth, the areas Democratic chairman. But we can have that fight another day.

Blue Earth County has long swung back and forth in presidential elections. But the demographic trends are now steady in Democrats favor.

The expansion of the Mayo Clinic to Mankato from nearby Rochester in 1996 increased the supply of medical professionals from around the country and the world. Since 2010, healthcare jobs have increased in the county by roughly 70%.

About 40% of Mankato residents have college degrees a key indicator of Democratic voting compared with 33% nationwide.

Racial diversity has accelerated another boost for Democrats. Minnesota State University, Mankato, has drawn more international students to its expanded health care programs. And manufacturing and food-processing plants on the citys outskirts have attracted immigrants from North Africa and Latin America.

The transition has not been without tension, but the area has come a long way since Abdi Sabrie, a Somali-American member of the Mankato School Board, arrived in 2009.

Then, his two daughters were the only students of North African descent in their elementary school. Today, 28% of Mankatos enrollment are students of color.The changes are welcome, but Sabrie gets frustrated.

Sometimes I want Democrats to use their control to the max, regardless of the other side, he said. But this diversity shows me we can bring back the politics of collaboration.

Annual household income in Blue Earth rose by roughly $20,000 over the past decade to nearly $60,000 in February, still below the state average of $71,300. Blue Earth housing, too, has jumped from an average home price of roughly $140,000 to $226,000. Buoyed by health care, unemployment was 3.2% in January, up slightly from 2.6% a year ago. The states was 4.5% in January.

Signs of changes are easy to find.

A decade ago, hijabs were forbidden for Mayo employees. Today, the colored head coverings worn by some Muslim women are common on campus. The nations racial reckoning has played out in a debate over whether to rename Sibley Park, whose namesake is a general who ordered the hangings of 38 Dakota warriors in 1862, the largest mass execution in U.S. history.

From near that solemn spot along the Minnesota River, Mankato grew east to its wooded bluffs. Along the river, brick hulls of grain exchanges still stand but now so does Karshe, an East African tea shop, and the arty Fillin Station coffee house, among used bookstores, spas and brewpubs.

Midway up the slope, Mayos campus sits among the tidy, middle-class homes that made the difference for Biden. In that precinct, Biden netted 500 more votes than Clinton did in 2016, a third of his winning margin in the county.

Fetching her children from school, McGaw says she and her husband, a Spanish-language medical interpreter, felt Biden was more task-oriented and less about himself than Trump. She voted straight-ticket, but groused Peterson had become too conservative for the district.

McGaw said her family has lived modestly during the COVID-19 pandemic. They qualify for $2,800 in household aid, and another $2,800 in child tax credits. McGaw sees others are more needy.

Weve been doing OK, she said. I was never nervous about my job security. In fact, I was always asked to work more. Do we need the money? Honestly, we can do without it.

McGaw isnt necessarily typical. Nationally, 53% of Democrats say they have experienced at least one form of income loss during the pandemic, slightly more than the 43% of Republicans, according to a March poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

A few blocks away, retired office administrator Jaci Lageson said she was pleased with Bidens compromise with Senate moderates who wanted to lower the income threshold for those receiving the checks.

It gets money in the pockets of people who need it to survive, said Lageson, a 67-year-old former Republican who has voted Democratic over the past 20 years. Lagesons 73-year-old husband, Larry, a devoted Trump supporter, called Biden a pawn of Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

The number of counties Biden flipped in November is well short of the 206 Trump flipped from Barack Obama in 2016 proof partisanship has hardened across the U.S. But the Democratic trend in these smaller, well-educated pockets looks sustainable, researcher Griffin said.

Its not surprising to have higher-education areas shifting back to the Democrats, given that educational polarization has increased, he said.

Though Mankato remains among the smaller cities in this class, it has grown by 35% since 2000 to about 44,000.

The growth has turned this sleepy rural college island into a microcosm of Democratic America, mixed with pragmatic sensibility reflected in Elizabeth Van Slyke, a progressive willing to compromise.

Im not so dead set in my ways, the 57-year-old marketing executive said. Some progress in the right direction is better than no progress.

Here is the original post:

What counties that flipped to Biden from Trump tell us about Democrats' pockets of renewed small-city vigor - MarketWatch

With few other viable options, Texas Democrats are hoping that next year former Rep. Beto ORourke challenges Republican incumbent Greg Abbott for governor.

The El Paso Democrat is considering running for governor, saying that Abbott has failed Texas during the pandemic. He later criticized his handling of the February winter storm that left millions of Texans without power and water. That has fueled speculation that ORourke is all but in the governors race, even though hes just as likely to opt against the underdog campaign.

Its very hard for us to recruit candidates right now, when you have somebody looking like hes going to run, Texas Democratic Party Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa told me last week. Right now were just taking a wait and see attitude on this thing.

Hinojosa didnt rule out former U.S. Housing Secretary and former San Antonio Mayor Julin Castro as a potential candidate, even though Castro has already opted against running in 2022.

Beto is out there. Julins out there. Im figuring one of them is going to run, Hinojosa said. We should know pretty soon.

Texas Democrats need ORourke because they have no one else who can beat Abbott, a well-known political figure with a huge campaign fund and formidable grassroots army. ORourke would also be likely to lose to Abbott, but would give Democrats a credible candidate who can raise money, develop and deploy a volunteer army and for the first time since 2014 force Abbott to focus on his reelection bid, instead of using his considerable resources to help down-ballot Republicans.

It would be a race worth watching, and Abbott has already taken a swipe at ORourke, pointing out that as a presidential contender he pledged to confiscate assault weapons.

Politicians from the federal level to the local level have shouted: Heck yes, the government is coming to get your guns, Abbott said of the one-time presidential contender. We wont let that happen in Texas.

But Democrats might have to challenge Abbott with another, lesser-known nominee.

The filing deadline is in December and ORourke hasnt put together a campaign team. Hes been teaching at Texas State University, and though hell help the Democratic Partys effort to upend Abbott, he may not want to risk a third high-profile defeat in four years.

Cruzs seat is up in 2024, and ORourke could be contemplating another run for Senate. That race could feature Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Houston, since Cruz might run for president instead of reelection. In 2018 Cruz beat ORourke by 2.6 percentage points.

Whatever the scenario, Democrats may be forced to shape a 2022 statewide ticket without their partys best statewide candidate.

Democrats arent without political stars, but most of them are still rising and are unknown to most Texans.

In Congress, Reps. Colin Allred of Dallas, Veronica Escobar of El Paso and Joaquin Castro of San Antonio are all considered blue chippers. Allred and Escobar arent ready to give up congressional seats for a statewide run. Castro considered running for governor or attorney general in 2018. Hes also expected to stay in Congress.

North Texas contenders currently in the Texas Legislature include state Sens. Royce West of Dallas and Beverly Powell of Burleson, along with state Rep. Raphael Anchia of Dallas. West was the runner-up to Round Rock Democrat MJ Hegar for the Democratic Party Senate nomination. Hes not expected to run statewide in 2022. Anchia has been cautious about challenging statewide. Powell could be an option for a number of statewide races, but like many Democrats in office, is unknown to voters outside of her district.

Elsewhere, former Houston City Council member Amanda Edwards, who ran for Senate in 2020, could be a contender for lieutenant governor against incumbent Dan Patrick or attorney general against incumbent Ken Paxton. Shes not expected to challenge Abbott.

Other contenders for governor include former 2020 Senate candidate and labor activist Cristina Tzintzn Ramirez.

On the local government front, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo is getting rave reviews and is seen as a future candidate for higher office, but campaigning against Abbott is likely too much too soon.

Matthew McConaughey is teasing a run for governor, but Democrats are not banking on the actor being their great hope.

No matter the options, Democrats have to put their muscle behind a credible candidate.

After failing to win the Texas House or a statewide contest in 2020, it was unclear if Democrats would invest much political treasure in seriously challenging Abbott, the Goliath who has not come close to losing a statewide race.

Democrats and others have slammed Abbott and the GOP leadership for not making sure that the Texas power delivery system was prepared for the ferocious winter storm that crippled the state.

Now Democrats have to challenge Abbott in earnest, or appear not ready for prime time.

For Democrats, Its Beto or bust.

Link:

With few other options, Texas Democrats need Beto ORourke to challenge GOP Gov. Greg Abbott in 2022 - The Dallas Morning News

Fox Nation host Tomi Lahren weighed in Monday on the scandals surrounding New York's "narcissistic tyrant",Gov. Andrew Cuomo, after a seventh accuser came forward with claims of sexual misconduct over the weekend.

Despite multipleinvestigations and growing calls from members of his own party to resign, Cuomo has refused to leave office, telling reporters on Friday that Democrats pressuring him to do so don't know the difference between "playing politics, bowing to cancel culture, and the truth."

"Cancel culture is not what happens to an elected official after he or she sends thousands of seniors to an early grave, covers it up, and/or allegedly sexually harasses and intimidates women. So dont get it twisted, bud," Lahren told viewers on her Fox Nation show "Final Thoughts."

The host said shewas "amazed" at Cuomo's ability to "play the victim," and wondered whether Democrats were focused on the harassment claimsas a deliberate attempt to distract from "the thousands of seniors sent to an early grave thanks to the poor decision-making of Governor Cuomo and other governors with "Ds" behind their names."

BIDEN BREAKS HIS SILENCE ON CUOMO SCANDALS

"What about the timing? The sexual allegations may have surfaced rather recently, but the nursing home debacle has been public knowledge for months and prior to the election. The Democrats shirked that off leading up to November because Cuomos deathly leadership decisions did not supersede or exceed his 'gold standard'hatred for Donald Trump."

Lahren observed that whilePresident Joe Biden addressed the scandal for the first time Sunday night, Vice President Kamala Harris -- who was a vocal supporter of Christine Blasey Ford during the 2018 Supreme Court confirmation ofBrett Kavanaugh-- has maintained her silence on the mounting allegations.

ANDREW CUOMO'S ACCUSERS: WOMEN WHO HAVE MADE CLAIMS AGAINST THE NEW YORK DEMOCRAT

"Well, Kamala, what say you?" Lahren said. "Wheres the passion, the fire, the outrage, the justice when it comes to a powerful Democrat accused by several women of sexual harassment and inappropriate behavior? Really looking forward to your commentary on the matter given your likely faux outrage over similar accusations levied against conservatives in the past."

"The moral of the story here is this," concluded Lahren. "Democrats only go after their own if it can somehow distract from other Democrat wrongdoings and/or benefit their collective party in a way that exceeds their loyalty to fellow libs."

To watch Lahren's latest episode of"Final Thoughts,"and for more exclusive commentary,visit Fox Nationand join today.

CLICK HERE TO JOIN FOX NATION

Fox Nationprograms are viewable on-demand and from your mobile device app, but only for Fox Nation subscribers.Go to Fox Nationto start a free trial and watch the extensive library from Tomi Lahren, Pete Hegseth, Abby Hornacek, Laura Ingraham, Ainsley Earhardt, Greg Gutfeld,and many more of your favorite Fox News personalities.

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Tomi Lahren on Cuomo: 'Democrats only go after their own' to 'distract from other Democrat wrongdoings' - Fox News

President Biden signed his $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill into law yesterday, a move that will send $1,400 stimulus checks to many Americans, strengthen a wide range of social programs and step up investment in vaccine distribution. A few hours later, he went on national television to trumpet the achievement. And this afternoon, he celebrated it in a Rose Garden ceremony, joined by Democratic leaders in Congress.

It changes the paradigm, Biden said today, talking about the plans provisions to support low- and middle-class workers. For the first time in a long time, this bill puts working people in this nation first.

The bill passed without any Republican votes, depriving the Biden administration of the ability to frame it as a bipartisan effort but also denying the G.O.P. the chance to reap its rewards in the realm of public opinion, if the legislation remains as popular as it is right now, according to polls.

Biden is planning to travel the country in the coming days to drive home the message to Americans that the legislation doesnt just provide needed relief to families and businesses but also that Democrats have delivered on a key campaign promise. Will it resonate? Come the 2022 midterm elections, will voters remember a law that was passed a year and a half earlier?

To understand how the policy interacts with the politics, I caught up with Jonathan Martin, a national political correspondent, to talk about how Democrats plan to marshal this legislative victory to their advantage at the ballot box next year.

Republican lawmakers in Washington were unified in their opposition to the relief package. But some, like Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, are already praising some of the programs that the bill has funded. Are any of those G.O.P. lawmakers regretting their opposition?

The popularity of the package isnt lost on congressional Republicans. Some in the party believe it will become less appealing once voters realize how little of the funding is for direct Covid relief, but most G.O.P. lawmakers seem eager to change the subject to the growing number of migrants on the southern border.

Its no accident that the House Republican leader, Kevin McCarthy, is headed there on Monday (and not planning to hold events in opposition to the stimulus).

Biden has talked about learning lessons from 2009, when then-President Barack Obama signed a nearly $1 trillion stimulus bill but resisted taking a victory lap. Democrats ended up suffering big losses in the 2010 midterms. How is Biden seeking to avoid a similar fate?

With a lot of events! Im only half-kidding.

The White House is determined to flood the zone, as the saying goes, and dispatch all manner of figures, from the first and second families to cabinet secretaries, to promote the bill.

But the administration also hopes that the direct impact namely checks in the mail will make this measure a lot more tangible and therefore politically popular than the 2009 bill.

If Democrats were able to retain their razor-thin majorities in Congress, it would fly in the face of history which tells us that a new presidents party hardly ever comes out on top in the midterm elections. Looking at the map in 2022, how good do Democrats think their chances are of defying that history?

Right now, they are optimistic because theyre united certainly by Democratic standards! and Republicans have obvious challenges with former President Donald Trump, whos still liked by their primary base but is deeply unpopular with the broader electorate.

But Democratic leaders know how often theres a backlash to the party in power, and they also know how tight their margins are in both chambers of Congress. Even the slightest pro-Republican breeze next year will lift them to the majority.

Thestimuluspayments would be $1,400 for most recipients. Those who are eligible would also receive an identical payment for each of their children. To qualify for the full $1,400, a single person would need an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or below. For heads of household, adjusted gross income would need to be $112,500 or below, and for married couples filing jointly that number would need to be $150,000 or below. To be eligible for a payment, a person must have a Social Security number. Read more.

Buying insurance through the government program known as COBRA would temporarily become a lot cheaper. COBRA, for the Consolidated Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act, generally lets someone who loses a job buy coverage via the former employer. But its expensive: Under normal circumstances, a person may have to pay at least 102 percent of the cost of the premium. Under the relief bill, the government would pay the entire COBRA premium from April 1 through Sept. 30. A person who qualified for new, employer-based health insurance someplace else before Sept. 30 would lose eligibility for the no-cost coverage. And someone who left a job voluntarily would not be eligible, either. Read more

This credit, which helps working families offset the cost of care for children under 13 and other dependents, would be significantly expanded for a single year. More people would be eligible, and many recipients would get a bigger break. The bill would also make the credit fully refundable, which means you could collect the money as a refund even if your tax bill was zero. That will be helpful to people at the lower end of the income scale, said Mark Luscombe, principal federal tax analyst at Wolters Kluwer Tax & Accounting. Read more.

There would be a big one for people who already have debt. You wouldnt have to pay income taxes on forgiven debt if you qualify for loan forgiveness or cancellation for example, if youve been in an income-driven repayment plan for the requisite number of years, if your school defrauded you or if Congress or the president wipes away $10,000 of debt for large numbers of people. This would be the case for debt forgiven between Jan. 1, 2021, and the end of 2025. Read more.

The bill would provide billions of dollars in rental and utility assistance to people who are struggling and in danger of being evicted from their homes. About $27 billion would go toward emergency rental assistance. The vast majority of it would replenish the so-called Coronavirus Relief Fund, created by the CARES Act and distributed through state, local and tribal governments,accordingto the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Thats on top of the $25 billion in assistance provided by the relief package passed in December. To receive financial assistance which could be used for rent, utilities and other housing expenses households would have to meet severalconditions. Household income could not exceed 80 percent of the area median income, at least one household member must be at risk of homelessness or housing instability, and individuals would have to qualify for unemployment benefits or have experienced financial hardship (directly or indirectly) because of the pandemic. Assistance could be provided for up to 18 months,accordingto the National Low Income Housing Coalition. Lower-income families that have been unemployed for three months or more would be given priority for assistance. Read more.

In his speech last night, Biden said the vaccine rollout was truly a national effort, just like we saw during World War II. After a presidential campaign centered on calls for unity and reconciliation, does Biden see this bill which is supported by about seven in 10 Americans, according to polls as an opportunity to actually hark back to an era of American history before political polarization took hold so deeply?

Thats certainly how he campaigned, and in the first days of his administration he seemed to be interested in pursuing bipartisanship. But when Senate Republicans came to him with a counteroffer on the stimulus that was about a third of the $1.9 trillion he had in mind, he chose speed and scale over bipartisanship.

The big question, now that Congress seems to be moving to infrastructure, historically an issue that transcends party lines, is whether Biden will make a real turn toward true bipartisanship and push congressional Democrats to put together a package that includes Republicans.

New York Times Podcasts

On todays episode, Ezra spoke with Dr. Ashish Jha, a physician, leading health policy researcher and dean of the Brown University School of Public Health.

Dr. Jha helps guide us through these next months of the pandemic, to help us see what hes seeing. Dont get him wrong: This isnt over. But in America, things are going to feel very, very different in 45 days, for reasons he explains. Then comes another question: How do we make sure the global end to this crisis comes soon after? You can listen here.

On Politics is also available as a newsletter. Sign up here to get it delivered to your inbox.

Is there anything you think were missing? Anything you want to see more of? Wed love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

Originally posted here:

How Democrats Hope to Press Their Advantage on the Stimulus - The New York Times