Category Archives: Democrat

Introduction

As President Biden begins his second year in office and the battle for control of Congress in 2022 heats up, Democrats find themselves in a deep hole. Early in Bidens administration, 55% of Americans approved of his performance; today, his job approval has fallen to 42%. Polls conducted during the past three weeks show Democrats trailing Republicans by an average of 4 percentage points in the aggregate vote for the House of Representatives.[1]

This disadvantage in the generic House vote is even more significant than it appears. Because Democratic votes are distributed less efficiently among congressional districts than are Republican votes, Democrats need an edge of at least 2.5 percentage points to retain control. In 2016, a Republican advantage of just 1 percentage point translated into a 47-seat House majority. In 2012, a 1-point Democratic popular vote advantage left Republicans with a 33-seat majority. By contrast, it took a massive 8.6 percentage popular vote victory to give Democrats a comparable 36-seat majority in 2018.

Contrary to early expectations, the redistricting process after the 2020 Census is likely to leave the Houses existing partisan tilt about where it is now. But the parties have pursued different strategies. While Republicans have focused on making their seats safer, Democrats have sought to increase the number of districts where they have a reasonable chance of winning. This strategy will increase Democratic gains when the popular vote balance is favorable to them, but at the cost of increasing their losses when the vote turns against them. In these circumstances, the Republicans current 4-point edge in the generic House vote would likely produce a massive seat swing in their direction.

There is a strong relationship between President Bidens public standing and Democrats prospects in the forthcoming midterm elections. A recent study found that in this era of polarized and nationalized politics, a presidents job approval does more to influence midterms than does any other factor. Another analysis shows that Bidens low job approval in swing states is weakening Democratic candidates for the Senate. Unless Biden can move his approval from the low to the high-40s, Democrats have virtually no chance of retaining their House majority or of continuing to control the Senate.

Voters have downgraded their evaluation of the presidents performance across the board, but his losses on two key issues that were key to his campaigndealing with the pandemic and bringing the country togetherhave been especially steep.

To understand what it would take for President Biden to improve his public standing, lets examine which voters have moved from approval to disapproval, and why. A recently released report from the Pew Research Center offers some answers.

In early 2021, when public approval for President Biden was at its peak, support among Independent voters who said they lean toward the Democrats stood at 88%, nearly as high as among voters who identify as Democrats (95%), and differences between strong and not-strong Democrats were insignificant. Since then, the gap between these groups has widened significantly. While the presidents ratings among Democrats have declined by 19 percentage points (from 95% to 76%), they have declined by 32 percentage points among Leaners, and a 22-point gap has opened between those who say they are strong and not strong Democrats.

Data provided by Pew show a strong correlation between these shifts and ideological differences among Democratic support groups. Simply put, strong Democrats, a group dominated by liberals, continue to approve of the presidents performance much more than do not-strong Democrats and Democratic leaners, who have strong majorities of moderate and conservative voters. Liberals make up 56% of strong Democrats, compared to just 40% of not-strong Democrats and 36% of Independents who lean toward the Democrats.

Other survey data supports Pews findings. For example, compare two polls conducted by the Economist and YouGov, the first in mid-March of 2021, the second in the third week of January 2022. Among all voters, President Bidens job approval has declined by 15 points. But it has declined by 21 points among Independents and 22 points among moderates.

A Gallup survey, which examined the impact of partisanship but not ideology, found that the decline in Bidens personal ratings was driven mainly by shifts among Independents.

A key reason for these shiftsmoderates and Independents now view President Biden as less moderate and more liberal than they did at the beginning of his administration. When asked to place Biden on the ideological spectrum from very liberal to very conservative, heres what they said:

During this period, moreover, the share of these voters who saw Biden as very liberal rose by 6 percentage points among both moderates and liberals.

While President Biden has suffered reverses across the board, he has lost more ground among voters in the center of the electorate than on the left. If he is to regain support among moderates and Independents, he must work harder to overcome their objections to the way he has positioned himself during his first year in officeincluding their perception that he has governed farther to the left than they expected when they voted for him in 2020.

[1] Source: authors calculation based on polls conducted January 12-26, 2022.

Here is the original post:

Can President Biden and the Democrats get out of the hole? - Brookings Institution

Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.

sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): President Biden has had a couple of rough months, but on Wednesday, he was thrown a lifeline with the news that Justice Stephen Breyer plans to retire from the Supreme Court at the end of its current term.

Getting to nominate a Supreme Court justice is a big deal for Democrats, too, as liberal justices havent always left the bench at an opportune time (the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg is just the most recent example). Itll be a history-making appointment, too, because Biden is expected to honor his campaign promise of appointing a Black woman to the court.

So lets discuss the effects we expect Democrats Supreme Court nomination to have:

Lets start with that first question. Democrats can get their Supreme Court nominee through right?

ameliatd (Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux, senior writer): If the Democrats cant get this nominee through, they should just pack up and go home.

sarah:

ameliatd: Im serious! Theyve got the votes, theyve got time, theyve been holding together on other judicial nominees. If they cant make this happen, then thats a sign of much bigger dysfunction than what were seeing currently on legislation.

Who knows when theyll be able to get another Democratic nominee onto the court?

alex (Alex Samuels, politics reporter): Well, the good news for Democrats is that Republicans cant block a Supreme Court nomination in the judiciary committee or on the floor as long as all 50 Senate Democrats Im looking at you, Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema! hold their ground and back Bidens nominee. Based on Nathaniels recent story, that seems likely, but you really never know.

nrakich (Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): Yeah, despite Manchins and Sinemas high-profile defections from the party on major votes lately, I found somewhat surprisingly that no Senate Democrat has ever voted against any of Bidens federal-court nominees so far.

The caucus has been remarkably cohesive and unified on the issue of judges:

How often each senator has voted for and against President Bidens district-court and appeals-court nominees, as of Jan. 26, 2022

Excludes votes a senator skipped.

Source: U.S. Senate

alex: Manchin also said last week that hed support a justice who is more liberal than he is which is a good sign that Democrats will be able to get this through. And its also not completely out of the question that a handful of Senate Republicans back Bidens nominee!

I was pretty shocked at House Majority Whip James Clyburns claim that the two Republican senators from South Carolina Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott would potentially back Democrats if Biden tapped J. Michelle Childs for the role.

ameliatd: You found that a couple Republicans might cross the aisle, right, Nathaniel? At least based on how judicial votes have been going so far?

nrakich: Right, Amelia. Sen. Susan Collins has voted for Bidens judicial nominees 86 percent of the time, Sen. Lisa Murkowski has voted for them 85 percent of the time and Graham who is kind of old-fashioned in that he still defers to the president on his nominees, the way senators used to do 30 years ago has voted for them 84 percent of the time.

sarah: But do we think that analysis of federal judicial nominees will be applicable to the Supreme Court? Asking as maybe the biggest thing working against Democrats is that the nomination process for a Supreme Court justice has become increasingly rancorous, meaning they cant really count on any GOP support, right?

ameliatd: Appeals court nominations are also getting more rancorous, though, Sarah. Judicial nominations in general are just getting more acrimonious but this is so high-stakes that it seems unlikely to me that Democrats would fall apart here.

nrakich: I think thats right, Sarah for instance, I doubt Murkowski, who is up for reelection this year, will want to anger the Republican base by casting such a high-profile vote in Bidens favor.

But I also think theres less incentive for Republicans to block this nominee than usual. Control of the court isnt at stake, since this would be going from a liberal judge to a liberal judge, and conservatives majority is pretty secure now at 6-3.

geoffrey.skelley (Geoffrey Skelley, elections analyst): Yeah, this might be the last time Democrats have control of the Senate when a Supreme Court vacancy occurs for some time, so this is a pretty pivotal appointment for them to not screw up. And as Nathaniels analysis found, theres probably a good chance they remain united.

Still, if a Democrat or two breaks from the party line, counting on Republican support could be dicey. If we look back at recent confirmation votes, theyve become increasingly close because fewer and fewer senators cross the aisle to back the other partys nominee.

ameliatd: If Democrats cant get this nomination through and they lose the Senate in November, Breyer doesnt have to leave. He conditioned his retirement on his successor being nominated and confirmed. But hes retiring now for a reason hes in his 80s and who knows when the Democrats will control the White House and the Senate again. Its possible that if Breyer cant retire now, a Republican president will end up replacing him.

Ill never say never politics now is too weird for me to bet the farm on anything. But this really is Democrats seat to lose, and they have to know that.

sarah: OK, weve talked about how important every vote is in the nomination process, but what are some of the other stakes of this process, especially considering Biden has said he plans to uphold his promise to appoint a Black woman to the Supreme Court?

alex: Theres probably a strategic reason behind the White House wasting no time confirming that Biden would follow through on his campaign promise to nominate a Black woman. I wouldnt be surprised if they view this as a motivator for Black voters who are souring on Bidens presidency.

geoffrey.skelley: Black women are the most reliable voting bloc for Democrats, and such an appointment would make history. So politically, on top of Bidens previous campaign promise, this makes a lot of sense.

There have been a lot of ridiculous takes on the right about the nature of this appointment being promised to a Black woman, but that ignores the fact that presidents have historically considered identity when making appointments. President Ronald Reagan promised to appoint a woman, for instance, and chose Sandra Day OConnor; George H.W. Bush appointed Clarence Thomas to succeed another Black man, Thurgood Marshall.

alex: To your point, Geoff, the racial breakdown of Supreme Court members over time is pretty striking: Of the 115 justices who have served, all but seven (Thomas, Marshall, Sonia Sotomayor, OConnor, Ginsburg, Elena Kagan, Amy Coney Barrett) have been white men.

ameliatd: A handful of Black women are being floated as possible replacements for Breyer, and three of them Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, whos currently an appeals court judge on the D.C. Circuit; Justice Leondra Kruger, whos a justice on the California Supreme Court; and Judge J. Michelle Childs, whos a district court judge in South Carolina appear to be the top contenders.

But if I had to pick, I would bet on Jackson being the nominee. She has all the right credentials two degrees from Harvard, extensive judicial experience, even a clerkship with Breyer himself! And Biden appeared to be teeing her up for this spot by nominating her to the D.C. Circuit last year its often a feeder to the Supreme Court. (Justices Thomas, John Roberts and Brett Kavanaugh all served on the D.C. Circuit before the Supreme Court.)

sarah: Geoffrey raises an interesting point: How much is this appointment meant to play to Democrats base?

As Alex pointed out, Biden and Democrats have taken a hit recently with Black voters. Thinking ahead to the 2022 midterms the timing of when the nomination vote will actually happen is still unclear, but assuming it will be relatively close to the midterms how much does a partys base care about Supreme Court nominations?

I also think one thing thats particularly complicated about this nomination process is that this term has already had a number of high-profile, contentious cases. Will those cases weigh more in voters minds?

alex: Some polling taken over the last few years suggests that the Supreme Court has never been a top priority for either Republican or Democratic voters. In 2020, for instance, shortly after former President Donald Trump released a short list of potential Supreme Court nominees, Morning Consult/Politico found that only 48 percent of Democrats and 50 percent of Republicans said the Supreme Court was very important in deciding their vote that year. I realize 48 percent and 50 percent arent nothing, but at the time, it ranked below issues like the economy, health care, national security, taxes and COVID-19 for members of both parties.

ameliatd: Supreme Court nominations have traditionally been an issue thats mattered more to Republicans. But theres evidence that Democrats are tuning more into the importance of the court, too.

And if the court overturns Roe v. Wade or expands gun rights this term, that will definitely focus negative attention on the justices as both would be out of step with public opinion. Overturning Roe in particular would be highly unpopular. There arent many issues that could plausibly cause a backlash against the court, just because so much of what they do is technical and under-the-radar, but thats one of the big ones.

geoffrey.skelley: I think where the Supreme Court pick matters when looking ahead to the midterms is that its a chance for Biden to make history and receive some positive coverage in the process.

That could help shore up his base, which has been flagging, as Alex mentioned earlier. (Maybe it even helps Biden regain some support among independents, where hes really lost support.) Im not sure its the sort of thing that can dramatically change the trajectory of his approval rating, but it could tick up slightly afterward.

nrakich: I agree with that, Geoffrey. A successful confirmation would also be a concrete win for Biden that could change this narrative of incompetence and failure hes been stuck in.

I dont really think this nomination fight will affect the midterms much, though. If anything, it makes the Supreme Court less relevant for the midterms. As long as Breyer was still on the court, Democrats had an argument for saying, You have to keep us in control of the Senate so we can appoint a liberal justice to replace Breyer! Now, they cant make that argument.

ameliatd: My feeling is that the bigger question here is what the courts conservatives do. If the term ends up to be less headline-making than court watchers are expecting, Im not sure how much people will care. After all, this isnt a liberal replacing a conservative most people dont even know who Breyer is.

sarah: Yeah, thats a good point, Amelia. But if the court is as conservative as court watchers expect, the timing could be an important factor here, too. We did find, after all, that Kavanaughs nomination to the Supreme Court affected the 2018 midterms, especially in Senate races.

alex: We cant rule out the possibility, either, that this motivates Republicans more than Democrats.

The fact that the White House made it clear early on that Biden intended to stick to his word and nominate a Black woman already has some Republicans up in arms, and I think that, especially after the racial reckoning of 2020, there are a lot of white voters who are angry about their perceived loss of power and status. Replacing a white man with a Black woman even if they are similar ideologically could stir up angst among conservatives who already believed they were losing political clout to Black voters. As Geoff mentioned earlier, there have already been a number of racist takes from GOP pundits that Im going to refrain from linking to, but I can only imagine how bad things will get from here

If its not about race (which I doubt), Id expect the GOP to simply attack Bidens appointee as too liberal. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley already tweeted that Biden faces a choice of nominating either someone who loves America and believes in the Constitution or a woke activist.

ameliatd: Yeah, Alex, I think this is going to be a nasty confirmation hearing. There are already people attacking Biden for appointing a less qualified person before hes even named his nominee!

And even though we found that Biden is actually nominating more Ivy League and top law-school grads than previous presidents, this is a familiar trope for women of color in lots of professions, not just law. You have to be the best of the best to make it to the top and people still question your credentials.

alex: Exactly. And Republicans are also already reminding voters that the court should be a factor for voters this fall. Just look at Grahams tweet thread on this from a few days ago.

Id expect that Republicans double down on this argument, particularly in competitive states where Democratic senators are defending their seats.

ameliatd: I guess the flip side of what youre saying, though, Alex, is that a confirmation hearing where the first Black woman to be nominated to the Supreme Court is subjected to a bunch of racist questioning about her qualifications could make Democratic voters pretty angry, too.

geoffrey.skelley: Definitely a potential boost for the GOP, although I wonder how much more energized can Republicans get? Theyre already more likely to turn out in a midterm with a Democrat in the White House, and if the 2021 gubernatorial elections were any indication, turnout will likely be very high again for a midterm this November.

ameliatd: This is a bit of a nerdy point, but Ill be interested to see how the hearings go. Traditionally, nominees studiously avoid saying what they think about any high-profile issue or precedent that comes before the court. And that makes the hearings pretty snoozy for the most part. But in a moment when precedents like Roe v. Wade are actively threatened does that change?

Probably not, but itll be more complex for the nominee to navigate.

geoffrey.skelley: Fair question, Amelia. If the nominee were to make more assertive comments on a topic like Roe, I could imagine that getting a lot of play on the news. Im not sure whether thats good or bad for one party or the other, though maybe it reminds some Democratic voters of the stakes for the court, but it could also, to Alexs point, further energize social conservatives to show up in the midterms.

sarah: On that point, lets talk a little bit more about the overall importance of whomever Biden nominates to the court. As Amelia flagged, the court is currently in the throes of a 6-3 conservative revolution. That isnt going to change with whomever Biden nominates liberal justices will still be in the minority but this justice, whoever she might be, will still play an important role in shaping the court. Lets talk about that a little more and what the consequences of that are.

ameliatd: Breyer was very much an old-school Supreme Court justice. He staked out a place on the courts center-left and tried to compromise with the conservatives on some big issues, like religious liberty. He basically spent the last year trying to convince Americans that the court is nonpartisan. Of course, thats a line weve heard from other justices recently too. But it felt with Breyer that he was trying to operate on a court that no longer existed.

Someone like Jackson, on the other hand, is presumably well aware of the political moment. She was the judge in a case that came out of Democrats investigation into special counsel Robert Muellers report on Russian interference in the 2016 election. (Remember that thing that feels like it happened 75 years ago?) So youd imagine her potentially staking out a position more like Sotomayor, who has been calling out the conservative justices right and left this term.

Theres evidence, too, that diversity makes a difference in cases on issues like affirmative action at least on lower courts. And the court just so happens to have taken an affirmative action case for what will likely be next term. Do I really think that will change the outcome on this Supreme Court? Probably not. The conservative justices have been gunning for affirmative action for years. But having another nonwhite justice could affect how they handle the case.

nrakich: One thing that I always thought was interesting about the Supreme Court is that, historically, whether a justice was appointed by a Republican or Democratic president wasnt super predictive of where theyd end up ideologically. Im curious, Amelia: Do you think that era is over?

In other words, is there any chance for one of the conservative justices to get more liberal over their tenure, or vice versa?

ameliatd: That era is definitely over, Nathaniel. It ended along with the era of unanimous votes for Supreme Court nominees.

Some people say Roberts is getting more liberal. I am not in that camp. I think whats happening is that he cares about institutional credibility, and as the court gets more conservative, its getting increasingly out of step with public opinion. Thats where his breaks with the conservatives (which are few and far between) come from.

nrakich: It does kind of feel like Roberts is standing still and its the other conservative justices who are moving to the right.

ameliatd: The conservative legal movement has spent the past 40 years working to get justices on the court who wont get more liberal. It seems like theyve been extraordinarily successful.

sarah: Yeah, Amelia, its hard to see outcomes on the Supreme Court changing anytime soon. Itll be interesting, though, to see what this means for the three liberal justices and most likely three liberal female justices to be in the minority for years to come.

ameliatd: What it means for the liberals, Sarah, is that they have to figure out how to make being in the minority work for them. Breyers approach (and also Kagans) was to try to stanch the bleeding keep the court from moving to the right too quickly and compromise with conservatives to get not-terrible outcomes.

But that approach actually resulted in some pretty big concessions for the liberal justices, including last terms religious-liberty case. And I dont see a lot of evidence that the conservative justices with the exception of Roberts are interested in compromising with the liberal justices on anything at this point.

So I would suspect were going to see a lot more of dissents like the one we just got from Sotomayor, who said that the courts decision to let Texass highly restrictive abortion law stay in effect was a disaster.

nrakich: Its interesting to me that were seeing basically the same institutional dynamics play out on the Supreme Court that weve seen in Congress over the past decade: the rise of a conservative wing that is totally uninterested in compromise (the Freedom Caucus), and now a more assertive progressive wing, too.

ameliatd: Yeah, Nathaniel, I also wonder if it will lead to a growing perception among Americans that the court is political. I think thats an increasingly unavoidable conclusion. But if Americans start to think that way how does it change their perception of unelected justices who serve for life and rule on some of the countrys most important issues?

alex: Dont Americans already think that, Amelia?

ameliatd: Well, look at Congresss approval rating, though! The Supreme Court is still doing a lot better, relatively speaking.

But it is relevant that more Americans are seeing the court as too conservative. That being said, Gallup found that only 37 percent of Americans have that view.

nrakich: Interestingly, that Gallup poll didnt find a huge partisan split on approval of the Supreme Court; as of September 2021, 45 percent of Republicans approved of the court, while 36 percent of Democrats did. I feel like that is the next frontier for public opinion. Especially if the court overturns Roe v. Wade and delivers other conservative victories this term, I bet youll see its approval skyrocket among Republicans and plummet among Democrats.

ameliatd: The fact that most of the Supreme Courts cases even important ones are highly technical works in their favor here. Its easy for them to do radical things, like diminish the power of federal agencies, without anyone really understanding what theyre doing.

But I think some of that is already happening, Nathaniel. The question for me is whether the court does something so obviously political that public opinion really starts to mirror the polarized nature of the court.

Go here to see the original:

What Will Bidens Supreme Court Nominee Mean For Democrats And The Midterms? - FiveThirtyEight

Decades of polling have suggested that, in general, more Americans sympathize with the Democratic Party than with the Republican Party. This advantage has been so durable that its become conventional wisdom in American politics. But a recent Gallup poll shows Republicans taking the lead over Democrats, 47 percent to 42 percent, in terms of how Americans identify. The poll has been the subject of plenty of commentary, and in this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses whether those takeaways and underlying data are a good or bad use of polling.

The team also talks about the Senate races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia and New Hampshire and debates which are most important in determining control of the upper chamber next year.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the play button in the audio player above or bydownloading it in iTunes, theESPN Appor your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts,learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast is recorded Mondays and Thursdays. Help new listeners discover the show byleaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for good polling vs. bad polling? Get in touch by email,on Twitteror in the comments.

Read this article:

Politics Podcast: Are There More Republicans Than Democrats In America? - FiveThirtyEight

Senator Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia and chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, speaks during a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

Al Drago | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Sen. Joe Manchin's reelection campaign raised nearly $300,000 from corporate political action committees and executives days after the conservative Democrat said he would oppose President Joe Biden's $1.75 trillion social and climate spending package, according to a CNBC analysis of Federal Election Commission filings.

Some of the executives who donated to his campaign also previously contributed to Republican leaders' political operations, including former President Donald Trump's.

Manchin is up for reelection in 2024. His campaign raised just more than $1.5 million in the fourth quarter, ending the period with over $6 million on hand. Manchin's campaign has never raised that much money over the October-December quarter, according to a campaign finance expert.

More than $280,000 from corporate PACs and influential donors came after Manchin announced on Fox News on Dec. 19 that he would not back Biden's major spending bill, which is known as Build Back Better.

Manchin, who represents West Virginia, has a pivotal vote in the Senate, which is split 50-50 between the two parties. That has made him and his political operation a magnet for lobbying from business leaders and special interestgroups.

Following his announcement last month that he would not vote in favor of Biden's Build Back Better plan, records show that his campaign received contributions from companies such as Facebook (now known as Meta), CVS Health, Lowe's, Anthem, Cigna, Boston Scientific, Cheniere Energy and Emergent BioSolutions. Those donations ranged from $1,500 to $5,000.

Read more of CNBC's politics coverage:

Manchin's campaign also received individual contributions from leading executives after he effectively blocked Build Back Better, including $5,800 from Republican megadonor and Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone. The billionaire also separately gave to Manchin's PAC, which is called Country Roads. Langone had previously supported Trump when he ran in 2016 and endorsed many of the former president's economic policies.

Real estate magnate Richard LeFrak, who has mainly given to Trump's and Republican candidates' committees, donated $5,800 to Manchin's reelection campaign after he opposed the Build Back Better Act. LeFrak's sons, Harrison and James, who have given big money to Democrats and Republicans, combined to contribute over $10,000 to Manchin's campaign.

David Fischer, a Trump donor who also served as the then-president's former ambassador to Morocco, gave $5,800 to Manchin on Dec. 20. Other donors who have financed GOP campaigns and gave to Manchin's reelection effort late last year include real estate titan John Cushman III, veteran lobbyist Catherine Finley, health-care executive Robert Patricelli and Joel Myers, CEO of AccuWeather.

A month before his contributions to Manchin's operations, Langone praised the senator live onCNBC. Langone also said he intended to host a massive fundraising event for the conservative Democrat.

"I don't see leadership any place in this country. Thank God for Joe Manchin," Langone said at the time. "I'm going to have one of the biggest fundraisers I've ever had for him. He's special. He's precious. He's a great American," he added.

Representatives for Manchin did not return emails seeking comment.

See the original post:

Companies, executives donated nearly $300,000 to Manchin's campaign after he rejected Biden's Build Back Better bill - CNBC

Steve Sampson, an Arabella spokesman, sought to downplay the firms role or comparisons to the Koch network, casting it as providing administrative services rather than strategizing how to build the extra-party infrastructure of the left. We work for the nonprofit, not the other way around, he said in a statement.

On the left and right, dark-money hubs mixed politically oriented spending with less political initiatives. The Koch networks main financial hub gave $575,000 to the LeBron James Family Foundation. Hopewell gave nearly $3.8 million to a clinic that provides abortion services and more than $2 million to a Tulane University fund.

In weighing which nonprofits to include in its analysis, The Times considered both their spending on politically oriented efforts, as well as their relationships with allied groups. Some major institutions, such as the National Rifle Association and the Sierra Club, are involved in politics but were excluded because they spent heavily on membership-oriented activities.

The analysis includes three of the five Arabella-administered nonprofits, among them one charity, the Hopewell Fund. It donated to groups that work to reduce the role of big money in politics, but it also gave $8.1 million to a dark-money group called Acronym, which spent millions of dollars on Facebook advertising and backed a company called Courier Newsroom that published articles favoring Democrats and received millions of dollars from dark money groups. It was paid $2.6 million by a nonprofit linked to House Democratic leadership to promote articles.

Hopewell also sponsored a project called Democracy Docket Legal Fund that filed lawsuits to block Republican-backed voting restrictions enacted across the country. It was led by a top Democratic Party election lawyer, Marc E. Elias. His firm at the time, Perkins Coie, was paid $9.6 million by Hopewell, according to tax returns, and another $11.6 million by the Biden-backing Priorities USA nonprofit group.

Two other groups, the Voter Participation Center and the Center for Voter Information, spent a combined $147.5 million in 2020 to register and mobilize voters. They described their targets as young people, people of color and unmarried women demographics that tend to lean Democratic and said they registered 1.5 million voters in 2020.

Tom Lopach, a former Democratic strategist who now runs both groups, said their work was apolitical and an extension of civil rights efforts.

Continued here:

Democrats Decried Dark Money in Politics, but Used It to Defeat Trump - The New York Times

Progressives are preparing to try to clear out Democrats they say are hampering their ability to remodel the country while their party still controls Congress.

They see the skeleton Build Back Better (BBB) package and failed voting rights bill as warning signs that a few stubborn lawmakers can and, if given the chance, will block and blow up the liberal vision they had dreamed about enacting when President BidenJoe BidenFormer chairman of Wisconsin GOP party signals he will comply with Jan. 6 committee subpoena Romney tests positive for coronavirus Pelosi sidesteps progressives' March 1 deadline for Build Back Better MORE took office.

When things fell further apart last week, leaving the president and congressional Democrats scrambling for a way to advance their two main priorities, progressives saw a clear fix to all of it: primary challenges ahead of November.

We need strong progressives in Congress to have some sort of counterweight and leverage against the conservative, corporate backed Democrats who are an obstacle to delivering results, said Waleed Shaheed, a spokesperson for Justice Democrats,a progressive group that has backed several liberal challengers to Democratic incumbents in recent years.

These primaries are where those seats come from, where that leverage comes from, he said.

Manyonthe left are outraged that Sens. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinPelosi sidesteps progressives' March 1 deadline for Build Back Better On The Money Fed's inflation tracker at fastest pace since '82 Billionaire GOP donor maxed out to Manchin following his Build Back Better opposition MORE (D-W.Va.) and Krysten Sinema (D-Ariz.) joined Republicans last week in opposing a rule changeto the filibusterand in doing so killed off a voting rights bill. They are equally furious that the same two holdouts, particularly Manchin, sank Bidens social and climate spending package.

While both bills have defined Bidens first year in office, progressives see them as just the start.

They believe the moderate duo in the Senate and many more in the House will vote against their proposals as often as possible in 2022 and 2024, creating further pressure to oust them from within their own ranks before it gets to that point.

Manchin and Sinema arent up for reelection in 2022, but here are five moderate Democrats the left plans to target:

1) Rep. Henry Cuellar (Texas)

Jessica Cisneross quest to remove longtime moderate Rep. Henry Cuellar (Texas) from his position as a key centrist negotiator on Capitol Hill has attracted the most progressive energy this cycle.

Cuellar, a 10-term incumbent currently embroiled in an FBI investigation for alleged improper ties to Azerbaijan, is one of progressives biggestpotential gets.

He was seen as a major barrier to left-wing lawmakers goal of keeping Bidenssocial safety net packagelinked to the bipartisan infrastructure bill in November, arguing that he and others in similar positions in conservative districts needed an accomplishment to talk up back home.

Cisneros, a working class Mexican American woman, has a very different vision.

She gained someprominence forchallenging Cuellar for the same seat in Texass 28thCongressional District in 2020. And since then, progressives have become more interested in her candidacy. Like many on the left, she is firmly against corporate money in politics, particularly from the fossil fuel industryin the oil-rich state.Cuellar has sustained pushback from liberals over his ties to Big Oil.

While Cisneros is backed by liberal lawmakers, Cuellar, whos held his seat since 2005, has establishment weight behind his bid, including Majority Leader Steny HoyerSteny Hamilton HoyerClyburn calls for full-court press on voting rights Biden talks climate and child care provisions of Build Back Better agenda with top CEOs The Hill's Morning Report - Biden: Russia attack 'would change the world' MORE (Md.), the No. 2Democrat in the House. Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiPelosi sidesteps progressives' March 1 deadline for Build Back Better Let's 'reimagine' political corruption Briahna Joy Gray discusses Pelosi's 2022 re-election announcement MORE (D-Calif.) has remained neutral so far, butsupportedhim last cycle against Cisneros.

2) Rep. Carolyn MaloneyCarolyn MaloneyOvernight Defense & National Security Inside Austin's civilian harm directive House committee to hear from former Washington Football Team employees on misconduct claims House Dems seek to advance Equal Rights Amendment after new DOJ opinion MORE (N.Y.)

Rana Abdelhamid is progressives biggest chance to create a liberal trifecta in deep blue New York.

Abdelhamid, a 28-year-old Muslim woman, is competing againstRep. Carolyn Maloney, a nearly three decade House veteran, for a shot at the 12thCongressional District of the state where Democrat-on-Democrat action is something of a blood sport.

In Abdelhamid, top strategists see an opening to recreate the fire theyve captured cycle after cycle in the state that sent Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezOcasio-Cortez: Supporting Sinema challenge by someone like Gallego would be easy decision New Mexico Democrat tests positive for COVID-19 breakthrough case Warner tests positive for breakthrough COVID-19 case MORE and Jamaal Bowman to Congress against their more well-known and well-funded incumbent opponents.

The millennial progressive told The Hill she hopes that she can draw a contrast between her establishment rivalbacked by Wall Street and real estate who, she adds, has held this seat for as long as I have been alive.

We saw how important it is to have real progressives in Congress during the fight for Build Back Better,Abdelhamid said.We need leaders who will fight as hard as the people of this district already do.

3)Rep. Danny K. Davis (Ill.)

Activists desperate to send another social justice advocate to Capitol Hill have set their sights on Kina Collins, a young, Black gun violence prevention activist with ties to community organizing.

If Collinss story sounds familiar, its because it is strikingly similar to another progressive recruit from the activist class, Rep. Cori BushCori BushLaquan McDonald's family pushes for federal charges against officer ahead of early release Rep Cori Bush says 'gun violence shakes your soul' after car struck by gunfire Five Democrats the left plans to target MORE (D-Mo.), who rose to power and prominence by defeating longtime Rep. Wm. Lacy ClayWilliam (Lacy) Lacy ClayFive Democrats the left plans to target The FCC must act to promote minority-owned broadcasting Cori Bush hits her stride by drawing on activist past MORE (D-Mo.) amid an uproar over racial unrest.

Operatives see parallels between Bush and Collins, who is taking on Rep. Danny K. Davis, a 13-term lawmaker and member of the Congressional Black Caucus, in Illinois's 7thCongressional District.

Davis, progressives contend, is too closely tied to corporate money, which they say has long influenced his decision making, whereas Collins relies exclusively on small-dollar donations tofundher insurgent bid.

Illinois's7th District is one of the most unequal districts in the country, yet our representative Danny DavisDaniel (Danny) K. DavisFive Democrats the left plans to target Don't just delay student debt, prevent it Illinois Democrats propose new 'maximized' congressional map MORE has stopped showing up in the community, misses votes, and takes money from corporate donors, Collins said.

LikeAbdelhamid, Collins believes the ongoing struggle and public spectacle around passing Democrats social spending plan further spotlighted the need for her candidacy and others challenging lawmakerswholiberalssay are slowing things down.

We need progressive fighters, she said.

4) Rep. Tim RyanTimothy (Tim) RyanCooper becomes latest House Democrat to not seek reelection Marjorie Taylor Greene endorses JD Vance in Ohio Senate race The Hill's Morning Report - Biden, NATO eye 'all scenarios' with Russia MORE for Ohio Senate

Columbus native Morgan Harper, a former adviser for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is challenging moderate Rep. Tim Ryan in the states Democratic Senate primary, a race thats attracting national eyeballs.

Harpers rsum reads a bit like Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenDemocrats press cryptomining companies on energy consumption Ocasio-Cortez: Supporting Sinema challenge by someone like Gallego would be easy decision Over 80 lawmakers urge Biden to release memo outlining his authority on student debt cancellation MOREs (D-Mass.). A lawyer and policy wonk, but from the Midwest, not Massachusetts.

She hopes that in Ohio, the state that Democrats have watched turn red over the last several cycles, shes making the pitch that populist policies like "Medicare for All" and the Green New Deal are needed to inject optimism and concrete results into struggling areas.

Ryan, a Youngstown native and early backer of Biden, has long enjoyed the support of the party's establishment wing. While some Democrats are skeptical that the seat can go to any candidate from their side of the aisle, Harper would have to outcompete the moderate factions favorite candidate in 10-term Ryan to have a shot against the eventual Republican nominee.

5) Rep. Jim CooperJim Cooper Romney tests positive for coronavirus DCCC expands list of vulnerable House Democrats The Hill's Morning Report - Biden: Russia attack 'would change the world' MORE (Tenn.)

If theres an underdog to be had among progressives 2022 dream draft, its Odessa Kelly.

The young Nashville native is challenging Rep. Jim Cooper, a 16-term conservative Democrat and member of the Blue Dog Coalition in the House, forTennessee's 5thCongressional District.

Like other outsiders angling for a way in, Kelly, a mother of two, has the support of Justice Democrats and progressive groups like Indivisible, Brand New Congress, the Working Families Party and a slew of local and community leaders in Tennessee.

Her platform is unabashedly progressive.

While fellow organizers see hope in Kellys bid against Cooper, some privately acknowledge she has a tougher road ahead than her counterparts. Her district has been recently gerrymandered to lean toward Republican control, making it even harder for some to envision any Democrat clinging to power in the Southern enclave.

2024 Honorable Mentions:

6) Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.)

Theres no shortage of progressives who want Manchin out of Congress and away from politics altogether. But can anyone make that happen?

The West Virginia senator has been the lefts biggest problem child on Capitol Hill for the entirety of Bidens administration. FromBBBto the federal minimum wage, many progressives are loath to even refer to Manchin as a moderate, arguing that he is more of a Republican officeholder than a team member of the Democratic caucus.

Its notjust the left flank who ismad. As the negotiations around major legislation lagged for months for what he promised were good faith talks with the White House and congressional colleagues, many in the party felt he basically delivered a middle finger to the plans to pass an agenda that would address many social and environmental problems before the midterm elections.

The whole episode was cinematic. And it drastically upped the pressure among aggravated activists at the state and national levels to find someone who could be viable against him.

That, of course, wont be easy. Former President TrumpDonald TrumpFormer chairman of Wisconsin GOP party signals he will comply with Jan. 6 committee subpoena Overnight Defense & National Security Pentagon tells Russia to stand down Billionaire GOP donor maxed out to Manchin following his Build Back Better opposition MORE swept the state easily in both elections, and Manchin is still deeply popular with his constituents, despite the overall mood among Democrats in Washington souring on him.

7) Sen. Kyrsten SinemaKyrsten SinemaThe Hill's Morning Report - Democrats sense opportunity with SCOTUS vacancy Schumer finds unity moment in Supreme Court fight Left says they're not to blame for Biden's problems MORE (Ariz.)

Unlike Manchin, Sinema is a relatively newer target on the left. But shes quickly caught up to being equally reviled by those who want her out.

What started as a nascent primary Sinema movement among some rogue activists has gained steam in recent weeks after the first-term Arizona senator voted against amending the filibuster and effectively halted the debate on passing voting rights legislation.

Beyond the majority of Democrats in Congress, who have become increasingly unhappy with Sinemas position on the filibuster and refusal to budge after meeting several times directly with Biden, officials in her own state are even more upset.

Members of the Arizona Democratic Party recently voted tocensuretheir own senator after her GOP-aligned vote last week, a move that received praise from Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersSchumer finds unity moment in Supreme Court fight McConnell warns Biden not to 'outsource' Supreme Court pick to 'radical left' Briahna Joy Gray discusses Pelosi's 2022 re-election announcement MORE (I-Vt.), who has been critical of both Sinema and Manchin in their opposition to changing the procedure.

Activists say they expect a Sinema challenger to emerge ahead of 2024, with some anticipating that Rep.Ruben GallegoRuben GallegoOcasio-Cortez: Supporting Sinema challenge by someone like Gallego would be easy decision Poll: Sinema approval higher among Arizona Republicans than Democrats It's time for 'Uncle Joe' to take off the gloves against Manchin and Sinema MORE could mount anintraparty fight, despite shooting down the idea earlier.

Originally posted here:

Five Democrats the left plans to target | TheHill - The Hill

Rep. Josh Gottheimer is the latest addition to the Democrats list of House members who could face tough re-election campaigns as polls show Republicans with an edge in this falls midterm elections.

Gottheimer, D-5th Dist., became the fourth New Jersey Democratic representative more than any other state on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committees Frontline program, which provides extra help for incumbents expected to be in tight races.

This is in large part a reaction to the gubernatorial election and closer-than-expected result there, said Jacob Rubaskin, an analyst with Inside Elections, which rated the district as solid Democratic.

Thats when Gov. Phil Murphy defeated Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli in a race that was not called until the following day. Ciattarelli outpolled Murphy in Gottheimers old 5th District.

Im focused on one thing: fighting for the families of the 5th District, Gottheimer said.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesman James Singer said the decision to include Gottheimer was made on internal DCCC criteria. Gottheimer was one of seven people added.

Rep. Gottheimer has been a bipartisan leader who has represented New Jersey with distinction and we look forward to working with him to win this district again, he said.

Under the new map approved by the states independent redistricting commission, Gottheimer will be running in more friendly terrain come November. In addition, he is one of the Houses formidable fundraisers, having banked $11 million for his re-election entering October.

It takes more than close gubernatorial election to make a race competitive, Rubashkin said. If things are really terrible for Democrats, could this district become more competitive? At the moment, we just havent seen that yet.

But National Republican Congressional Committee spokeswoman Samantha Bullock called Gottheimer one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the country because hes failed to deliver for his district.

Former investment banker Frank Pallotta, who lost to Gottheimer in 2020; businessman Fred Schneiderman, who has former Donald Trump campaign manager and New Jersey native Kellyanne Conway working for him; and Marine Corps veteran Nick De Gregorio are seeking the Republican nomination.

In a recent Monmouth University Poll, 35% of Americans said theyd rather see Republicans control Congress, compared with 33% who chose the Democrats. And just 39% approved of President Joe Bidens performance in office with 54% disapproving.

Democrats are spooked and they have good reason to be, Rubashkin said. If this race truly is one of the Democrats most vulnerable, they are in a world of trouble.

Also on the House Democratic list are 3rd Dist. Rep. Andy Kim, 7th Dist. Rep. Tom Malinowski and 11th Dist. Rep. Mikie Sherrill.

Kim and Sherrill also got friendlier districts for 2022 while Malinowski did not. The map is being challenged in court by the Republican commission members.

After the new districts were drawn, Kim and Sherrill were rated as safe bets for re-election while Inside Elections called Malinowskis race a tossup and the Cook Political Report gave the Republicans an edge in that district.

Those three and Gottheimer all are on the House Republicans target list. The NRCC also announced it was going after the four Democrats in 2020 but fielded only one strong challenger, then-state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr., R-Union, who barely lost to Malinowski.

Our journalism needs your support. Please subscribe today to NJ.com.

Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him at @JDSalant.

Start your day with the latest from Trenton, D.C. and your town. Get the N.J. Politics newsletter now.

Continued here:

Democrats concede this N.J. congressman could be in trouble. Is it a warning sign for Biden midterm? - NJ.com

Amidst endless partisan bickering and with the unpredictability of the pandemic looming in the background the notion of a unified Democratic party seems like a pipe dream. With the advent of social media, what once occurred behind closed doors has become a spectator sport. Flash and virility have replaced good governing. Opinions have replaced facts.

As the newly elected president of the Democratic Mayors Association, Ive been given the privilege to speak on behalf of Democratic Mayors across the country. Weve witnessed the tenets of the Democratic Party being drowned out by a national screaming match and its time to get back to the basics: jobs, housing, education and healthcare.

Im the Mayor of Richmond, Va., the former Capital of the Confederacy where I see firsthand the struggles that everyday Americans are facing. While catchphrases touted by both sides of the aisle make headlines that evoke strong emotional responses, their most lasting legacy is division. Its time we shift our focus away from appeasing party extremists and get back to appealing to our base. This is not reinventing the wheel. This is how countless mayors, including myself, have gotten elected and how weve chosen to lead.

At the end of the day, being a Democrat is about helping folks. We want everyone to have the opportunity to succeed, and if youve fallen on hard times we want there to be a way out.

My upbringing had no silver spoons or picket fences. My mom was 16 when she had me and I was raised paycheck to paycheck by my father and grandmother he was a public school custodian with a felony on his record, and she was a domestic worker. Free school lunches were sometimes the difference between hungry and not.

The reason I bring this up isnt for sympathy. Its because when Democrats talk about helping those in need, I was one of those people. I understand what its like to need help, and how valuable that help can be. In spite of my circumstances, I became the first in my family to graduate high school (and then college) and now Im the twice elected Mayor of Richmond, Virginia. I was lucky.

I got into public service because my story is not unique. Its not an inner-city story, a Black story, or a coming from a broken home story. Its an American story that far too often doesnt get to happily ever after and that is something I will spend my life fighting to change.

Recent elections and the current trajectory of the GOP should serve as a cautionary tale. If we continue to allow them to set the narrative we will continue to lose. Our party was once one of inclusion; a party whose rhetoric was based on hope and growing stronger together. The issues of the Democratic Party are issues that affect peoples everyday lives that should give us a huge advantage.

As we head towards the midterms and future elections, my hope is that our party will unify. We must resist theeye for an eyementality when baited by the Republicans. We must extricate ourselves from the culture war and remind voters, and ourselves, what Democratic leadership means: access to affordable housing, good-paying jobs, and high-quality education and healthcare.

Getting back to the basics isnt just about winning. Its how we help people. In a country as powerful as the United States, the status quo is unacceptable. We can do better. This is a critical moment for our country and our democracy, lets not let it pass by.

LevarStoneyis the 80th mayor of the City of Richmond. He is the youngest mayor in Richmond history and the first millennial African American mayor to serve in the city.

More:

To win in 2022, Democrats must cut the squabbles and get back to basics | TheHill - The Hill

Hello, and happy Thursday,

On Tuesday afternoon, Jim Cooper, a moderate Democrat who has been in Congress for more than three decades, announced he was retiring. The timing was not a coincidence.

Less than 24 hours earlier, the Tennessee legislature had approved a map with new boundaries for the states eight congressional districts. Since 2003, Cooper has represented a district that includes all of Nashville, and it has been reliably Democratic (Joe Biden carried it by 24 points in 2020). But the legislatures new plan erased his district. Republicans sliced up Nashville into three different districts, attaching a sliver of Democratic voters in each to rural and deeply Republican areas. Donald Trump would have easily won all three of the new districts in 2020.

Get the latest updates on voting rights in the Guardians Fight to vote newsletter

Cooper was blunt in his assessment of what had happened. Republicans, he said in a statement, had made it impossible for him to win re-election to Congress. Despite his best efforts, he said, he could not stop Republicans from dismembering Nashville.

The map doesnt just weaken the voice of Democrats, it also dilutes the influence of Black voters and other voters of color in Nashville. In Coopers current district, Black voters make up about a quarter of the voting-age population. They will comprise a much smaller share of the voting age population in the new districts, making it harder for them to make their voices heard.

Andrew Witherspoon, my colleague on our visuals team, and I put together an interactive map that shows exactly how Republicans transformed Coopers district. Its one of the clearest examples of how politicians can essentially rig elections in their favor just by moving district lines. It underscores how gerrymandering is a remarkably powerful and efficient method of voter suppression the influence of certain peoples votes matter less before a single ballot is even cast.

Tennessee isnt the only place this is happening. In Kansas, Republican lawmakers are advancing a plan that would similarly crack Kansas City, making it more difficult for the Democrat Sharice Davids, the first Native American woman elected to Congress, to get re-elected. In North Carolina, Republicans cracked the city of Greensboro in order to dismantle the states sixth congressional district, currently represented by a Democrat.

Democrats have also shown a willingness to engage in this kind of distortion where they have control of the redistricting process, in places such as Illinois, Maryland and probably New York. Democrats will have complete control over drawing 75 congressional districts, compared with 187 for Republicans.

The day before he announced his retirement, I spoke with Cooper about why he thought this was happening and what he thought the consequences would be for Nashville voters. Whats happening now is just raw politics, Cooper said.

In two previous redistricting cycles, none of the politicians in the state knew that I existed as a candidate. That made it easier they werent trying to get Jim Cooper. And then in cycles where they did know I existed, it was either too difficult to rearrange the counties, or they were gentler, he told me. Politico reported recently that after Republicans werent as aggressive as they could have been in states such as Texas and Georgia, there is some pressure to be even more aggressive in places like Tennessee.

The Nashville constituents who are being sliced up into each of the three districts are likely to have much less importance to their new, Republican representatives, Cooper said. Any input they have, at most, it will be tokenism.

This is not a majority-minority community, but it will limit the ability for them to be heard. Because theyll become essentially a rounding error in much larger districts that are dominated by the surrounding towns, he said. The center of gravity will shift.

Also worth watching

A federal court told Alabama to redraw its congressional districts after finding Republican lawmakers had discriminated against Black voters. Alabama is appealing the ruling.

Arizona Republicans are proposing a suite of new voting restrictions after a widely criticized review of the 2020 election results.

Texas continues to face significant problems after implementing sweeping new voting restrictions ahead of its 1 March primary.

Ohio Republicans are redrawing state legislative and congressional maps after the state supreme court struck down earlier efforts as unconstitutional partisan gerrymanders. There are still concerns the new state legislative maps are severely gerrymandered.

See original here:

Republicans just wiped out a Democratic district. Heres how - The Guardian

House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) expressed openness to lowering the income limits for families to access the expanded child tax credit if it helps win Sen. Joe ManchinJoe ManchinPelosi sidesteps progressives' March 1 deadline for Build Back Better On The Money Fed's inflation tracker at fastest pace since '82 Billionaire GOP donor maxed out to Manchin following his Build Back Better opposition MOREs (D-W.Va.) support for the partys sweeping climate and socialspending bill.

Clyburn said in an interview withThe Washington Post on Thursday that he thinks Democrats still have wiggle room with getting Manchin on board with a party-backed expansion to the child tax credit after its recent lapse.

The No. 3 House Democratsaid Manchin has made it very clear that he has concerns about the structure of the expansion, but Clyburn said he doesnt think the West Virginia senator is entirely opposed to the credit.

He wanted to see it means-tested. I'm not opposed to that, Clyburn said, adding he would like to see Manchin come forward with a bill for the child tax credit thats means-tested.

I think it would pass. Hed get it through the Senate. I think we could get it through the House, Clyburn continued, adding he thinks theres a lot in Build Back Better that he says hes for so, lets do that.

Democrats have been working for months to make changes to and scale down the partys Build Back Better Act, in large part to try to get support from Manchin, a key centrist holdout.

Democrats hope to pass the bill,a legislative priority for President BidenJoe BidenFormer chairman of Wisconsin GOP party signals he will comply with Jan. 6 committee subpoena Romney tests positive for coronavirus Pelosi sidesteps progressives' March 1 deadline for Build Back Better MORE, using a complex procedure known as budget reconciliation thatwould allow them to greenlight the package in an evenly split Senate with a simple majority.

But, with Republicansuniformly opposed to the bill, Senate Democrats would need total support from their caucus to pass the measure, giving Manchin significant influence over the shaping of the legislation.

In an interview on Thursday morning, Manchinsignaled that he is stillopen to participate in negotiations around the spending plan and the expanded child tax credit, but added he thinks means testing will ensure it is targeted to those most in need.

Everyone thinks the child tax credit has gone away. The child tax credits still there, the $2,000 child tax credit is still there, and we're going to make sure that we can help, continue to help those in need, Manchin toldWest Virginia MetroNews's Hoppy Kercheval.

I want to target West Virginians basically to make $75,000 or less should be the highest priority we have. They have it up to $200,000 for an individual and $400,000 for families. That's a lot of money, headded,after expressing concerns about inflation earlier in the interview.

Excerpt from:

Top House Democrat open to lower income caps for child tax credit to win over Manchin | TheHill - The Hill