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The Supreme Courts conservative justices arent on the ballot this November. But for Democratic voters, the upcoming midterms are looking more and more like a referendum on the countrys high court.

In late June, when the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in a contentious and divided ruling, Republicans had a solid 2-percentage-point lead over Democrats in generic-ballot polling, which asks Americans whether they plan to support Republicans or Democrats in the upcoming congressional election. A little over two months later, though, and abortion is mostly or completely illegal in 14 states and those generic-ballot polls look very different. According to FiveThirtyEights average, Democrats now have more than a 1-point lead over Republicans.

Thats a remarkable shift in a year when Republicans should have the wind at their back normally, the presidents party loses seats in the midterm elections. And although things could change in the months leading up to November, theres mounting evidence that the Supreme Courts ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization is galvanizing Democrats and shaking up the political landscape in the process.

A Pew Research Center poll conducted Aug. 1-14 found that more Americans have an unfavorable view of the Supreme Court than at any other point since Pew began asking the question just over 35 years ago. Only 28 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have a favorable view of the Supreme Court, down 18 points since January and nearly 40 points since August 2020. Republicans views of the court, meanwhile, have gotten a bit more positive since the beginning of the year, which has created a gaping 45-point partisan gap in the Supreme Courts favorability rating.

Its not just that views of the court are changing the importance of abortion as an issue priority is also skyrocketing for Democrats in the wake of the Supreme Courts decision. According to the same Pew survey, the economy remains voters top issue overall, but the share of Democrats who say abortion is a very important issue for the midterm elections rose from 46 percent in March to 71 percent in August. Meanwhile, in a Gallup poll conducted July 5-26, 13 percent of Democrats said that abortion issues were the most important problem facing the country driving record-high levels of concern among Americans overall. An additional 9 percent of Democrats said that the judicial system and the courts were the most important problem.

This heightened focus on abortion and the court seems to be having a real effect on the midterms, too, with Democrats and independents saying in polls that they have a greater desire to vote for candidates who share their views on abortion. According to a Kaiser Family Foundation poll conducted July 7-17, for instance, nearly three-quarters (72 percent) of Democratic voters and 56 percent of independent voters say the Supreme Courts decision in Dobbs has made them more motivated to consider a candidates position on abortion. However, 62 percent of Republicans said the decision hadnt made a difference to them.

Americans cant vote Supreme Court justices off the bench, of course, but the Pew survey suggests that Democrats are more and more likely to think the court has too much authority. A solid majority (64 percent) of Democrats say the Supreme Court has too much power, up from only 23 percent in August 2020. Increasingly, Democrats also say that the justices are not making politically neutral decisions. Just over half (51 percent) of Democrats say the justices are doing a poor job of keeping their own politics out of their decision-making, up from 26 percent in January.

Even Republicans are somewhat divided on this question: One-third (33 percent) of Republicans said the court was doing an excellent or good job of keeping politics out of their decision-making, while 25 percent said the court was doing a fair job and 12 percent said it was doing a poor job. (An additional 15 percent of Republicans said they werent sure, and 13 percent said the Supreme Court justices should bring their own political views into their decision-making.)

This isnt the first time that anger surrounding the Supreme Court has reshaped a midterm election. In 2018, the fight over Justice Brett Kavanaughs confirmation to the court appeared to help Republican candidates in some key Senate races. At the same time, however, there were signs that year that the changing makeup of the Supreme Court and the possible impact on abortion rights was raising the salience of the issue for Democrats. That didnt seem to pay off for Democrats in the 2018 midterms since their base was motivated by other issues, but 2022 may be different.

According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 42.4 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 53.2 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -10.8 points). At this time last week, 42.7 percent approved and 53.0 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of -10.3 points). One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 39.6 percent and a disapproval rating of 55.7 percent, for a net approval rating of -16.1 points.

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 1.2 points (44.9 percent to 43.7 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 0.9 points (44.6 percent to 43.6 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 0.1 points (44.3 percent to 44.1 percent).

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The Supreme Court Is More Unpopular Than Ever. That Could Help Democrats. - FiveThirtyEight

The environment is upside down, said Michael Brodkorb, a former deputy chair of the Minnesota Republican Party. The intensity has been reversed.

It isnt just abortion. Less than 20 years after conservatives used ballot measures against same-sex marriage to boost voter turnout in 11 states, public sentiment has shifted on the issue so dramatically that Democrats are poised to force a vote on legislation to protect same-sex marriage to try to damage Republican candidates. Following the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, Democrats from Georgia and Wisconsin to Illinois and California are running ads supporting gun restrictions, once viewed as a liability for the left, while openly engaging Republicans on crime.

In an advertising campaign shared with POLITICO, the center-left group Third Way said the PAC it launched last year to defend moderate Democrats, Shield PAC, will start spending at least $7 million next week on digital and mail ads in seven competitive House districts to counter Republican attacks on crime, immigration and other culture war issues.

The advertising push follows polling in Rep. Abigail Spanbergers Virginia district that suggested counter-messaging by Democrats on public safety could blunt the effect of defund the police attacks by Republicans. As a result, while Spanberger is airing ads tearing into her Republican opponent on abortion, Shield PAC will be running a digital campaign bolstering Spanbergers credentials on police funding.

The story is that things that used to be very dangerous for Democrats guns and abortion are now very good for Democrats, said Third Ways Matt Bennett. Those kind of culture issues [same-sex] marriage, abortion and guns have flipped. The political impact of them [has] flipped.

Republicans, Bennett said, are not giving up on the culture wars as a [political] opportunity ahead of the midterms. But he said, I think we can neutralize those issues if you correct the record.

Thats a far cry from the GOPs one-time strength: campaigning on God, guns and gays. It was only a year ago that the cultural flashpoints in American politics appeared much more favorable to the GOP, with Republicans driving a flurry of news cycles on mask mandates, critical race theory, transgender student athletes and the perceived excesses of social media and big tech.

Even on abortion, voter intensity if not overall public opinion appeared as recently as last year to be on Republicans side. In the Virginia gubernatorial race in 2021, a majority of voters who listed abortion as the most important issue facing the state voted for the Republican, Glenn Youngkin, according to exit polls.

But just as Democrats saw the politics of guns begin to shift in 2018 when candidates favoring restrictions on firearms prevailed in some congressional swing districts the rejection of an anti-abortion ballot measure in Kansas and Democratic over-performances in special elections in Nebraska, Minnesota and New York this summer revealed the opening for them in Roe.

Democrats are like, Eureka! We have our own culture war successes, said New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish, a former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. This year, he said, could be a turning point in which the deployment of the culture war actually works for the first time in the Democrats favor and not the Republicans.

That will say a lot about 2024, he added. Democrats are so afraid of their own shadows, naturally. But I think that if it works this time, this could give permission to not be afraid.

For Republicans, the toxicity of the Supreme Courts overturning of Roe v. Wade was not singularly in the unpopularity of the decision, but in its undercutting of Republican efforts to brand Democrats as extreme. At the base of every non-economic attack Republicans leveled at Democrats from crime to immigration and education was the idea that the left was out of touch. But Roe, supported by a majority of Americans including independents critical in a midterm election was a reminder that on one of the most salient issues of the midterms, Democrats were in the mainstream.

On top of that, abortion as a voting issue has been blotting out other cultural concerns, second only to inflation, according to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released on Thursday.

Patrick Ruffini, a Republican consultant and pollster who has worked for the Republican National Committee and former President George W. Bushs 2004 reelection campaign, said that while Republicans still have winning arguments on issues including school curriculum and pandemic-related restrictions, abortion happens to be the most salient issue right now.

Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster, noted that cultural issues still benefit Republicans, but Dobbs is a big deal, because it really energized women who werent particularly political before, including younger women.

The best case for Republicans is to have this be a referendum on the Biden administration and Democratic governance, especially inflation, immigration and crime, he said. Anything that detracts from that referendum undermines the Republican case.

For Republicans, the result has been a general election reset in which the GOP is refocusing squarely on inflation and on Biden, whose low job approval ratings remain a drag on the Democratic Party. Republicans are still widely expected to take the House in November, though likely by narrower margins than once expected. But if they do win the House it will likely be those kitchen-table issues, not the culture wars, that put them over the top.

This is visible in Colorado and Washington, where Republicans are casting incumbent Sens. Michael Bennet and Patty Murray as stooges of a Biden administration responsible for inflation and a teetering economy. In Nevada, Republicans are similarly hitting Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto on the Biden-Masto economy. They are still campaigning on crime rates and on immigration in some states. But they are saying as little as possible about Roe.

In Minnesota, Scott Jensen, the Republican nominee for governor, this week released an ad in which he holds a baby, dismisses abortion as a divisive issue and appeals to voters to instead focus on the issues that matter.

With Democrats doing better than anyone right now on cultural issues, said a former Republican congressman familiar with the partys campaign operation, its going to be back to the economy and bread-and-butter for the GOP.

Its going to be about the economy and peoples views on whats in their economic best interest, said the former congressman, granted anonymity to speak candidly. Thats the way Republicans are going to win in the fall, I think.

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'The environment is upside down': Why Dems are winning the culture wars - POLITICO

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Mark Kelly speaks at an election watch party in Tucson, Arizona, U.S. November 3, 2020.

Cheney Orr | Reuters

Democrats are showcasing new partnerships with corporate America in an effort to convince voters that they can deliver jobs and safeguard the economy ahead of the midterm elections.

Many of the investments the party has touted are in key battleground states. In Arizona, Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly whose reelection bid will help to determine Senate control joined AT&T CEO John Stankey and Corning CEO Wendell Weeks last week to announce a new fiber optic plant outside of Phoenix that will create hundreds of jobs.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen toured Ford's electric vehicle plant in Michigan on Thursday and discussed the benefits of clean energy. Later this month, she'll travel to North Carolina, where Toyota is spending $2.5 billion to manufacture EV batteries. North Carolina will also host a critical Senate race in November.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds a news conference in the Cash Room at the U.S. Treasury Department in Washington, U.S. July 28, 2022.

Jonathan Ernst | Reuters

Perhaps most significantly, President Joe Biden will attend the groundbreaking of Intel's new semiconductor facility in the swing state of Ohio on Friday the start of an investment that could be worth up to $100 billion. Both company executives and lawmakers claim the project was made possible by legislation spearheaded by Democrats.

"When you pass good legislation, you get good results," Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said this week as he ticked off a laundry list of business investments. "It's been a long time since the American people felt that Washington is capable of doing big things to meet big challenges."

That tone represents a shift in the rhetoric that Democrats espoused a year ago. Back then, they were focused on raising revenue from corporations and the wealthy to pay for a sweeping social spending proposal known as Build Back Better: increasing the corporate tax rate, crafting a minimum global tax on multinational businesses and imposing new taxes on millionaires and billionaires, among others.

And when inflation spiked to 40-year highs, some Democrats pinned the blame on corporate profiteering.

But those proposals were blocked by the party's moderates. Though most of the attention was focused on Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, centrists in the House such as Reps. Stephanie Murphy of Florida and Kurt Schrader of Oregon also expressed discomfort.

And as Democrats pared back their proposals, their message became more muted as well.

"It feels like a split screen sometimes," said Jim Kessler, executive vice president of policy at the moderate think tank Third Way. "But there's a real opening here for Democrats on the economy and on its relationship with business."

Now, Democrats are framing the latest investment announcements as evidence of their success on three other bills: the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act and the Chips and Science Act both of which required Republican support and the Inflation Reduction Act, which Democrats passed on their own.

Shaking hands with business leaders could help counter Biden's low poll numbers. A majority of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy, including 57 percent of independents, according to an August poll by NBC News.

The efforts to tout business investment come as inflation has also provided Republicans with a powerful line of attack. The National Republican Senatorial Committee circulated a Gallup poll this week that showed 74% of low-income Americans had suffered financial hardship because of rising prices, up from 66% in January.

"The Democrats' recent policies hurt middle-class families around the country and have caused a recession whether they want to admit it or not," an NRSC spokeswoman said. "Democrats seem to be oblivious about solving inflation, continuing to hurt our economy, and need to be voted out in November."

Democrats haven't dropped their talking points on making corporations pay their fair share of taxes or holding big business accountable. The Inflation Reduction Act imposed a new tax on stock buybacks and set a domestic minimum tax of 15 percent, though manufacturers won a key carveout from that provision. It also will give Medicare the authority to negotiate prescription drug prices, despite heated opposition from the pharmaceutical industry.

But for now, Democrats are highlighting their alliances with businesses rather than their arguments. And even the left wing of the party is acknowledging that there could be political and economic benefits to working alongside the business community.

"I think there's an understanding among progressive thinkers in the economy that we can't just focus on redistribution. We can't just focus on taxes and transfers," said Lindsey Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative. "We also have to focus on pre-distribution. We also have to make the market into what we want it to be."

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Democrats tout big business investments to bolster their economic case ahead of midterms - CNBC

By many predictions, New York has as many contested seats as any state in the nation, and POLITICOs Election Forecast puts two as toss-ups; three as leaning Democratic and one leaning Republican. That makes New York which hasnt elected a Republican statewide in 20 years one of the most unlikely stages of political theater this election cycle.

Ill only tell you this were going to be competitive in every race that weve got an opportunity to win. We understand were going to have to work hard, and were prepared to do that, state Democratic Committee chairman Jay Jacobs said.

The National Republican Campaign Committee is savoring the moment, saying they see New York ripe for pickups in November.

Democrats are on defense in more seats than they ever would have liked because every single one of their extreme liberal candidates backs a pro-criminal, reckless spending agenda thats hurting every New Yorker, NRCC spokesperson Samantha Bullock said.

Democrats have been criticized for partially putting themselves in the unenviable position of having to defend seats that they hoped would be safe. An overzealous attempt to draw district lines could have yielded Democrats as many as 22 of the states 26 districts. Democrats now hold 19 of 27 House seats in New York; the state is losing a seat next year due to population stagnation.

In April, the states top court struck down Democrats map for being too gerrymandered, leaving it to a Republican judge in a small upstate town to draw new maps that put more seats in play than anyone envisioned.

Still, Democrats have renewed optimism about picking up seats after Pat Ryans special election win last month in the Hudson Valley signaled their fortunes might not be as bad as theyd thought as he ran heavily on a pro-abortion-rights platform that resonated with voters in the swing district.

Were going to be very clear about the choice that voters have this year, and thats between a party that denies the validity of that last election in many cases support of the Jan. 6 insurrection and doing everything it can in turning back the clock, like reveling in the overturning of Roe. v Wade, Jacobs said.

Republicans, meanwhile, say a red wave is an inevitable consequence of a midterm election when the opposing party is in control at both state and federal levels the only question is how large it will be.

The message is one of optimism from the NYGOP perspective, said state party chairman Nick Langworthy, who himself is running for Congress in November after winning a Western New York primary last month. We have an embarrassment of riches of a lot of great candidates and a lot of great races.

Big money is flowing to endangered incumbents, and all predictions are tempered by the lack of precedent in the brand-new court-drawn districts.

Put that all in a blender and you have chaos, said longtime New York Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf, who has not aligned with any campaign this cycle but has worked in gubernatorial and House races for decades.

Turnout in November will also be uniquely unpredictable. Historically, in Manhattan people will think about national politics; in the suburbs, people will think about local conditions and who to blame, Sheinkopf said.

The extent of their excitement in a non-presidential year is unclear, especially as issues like gun laws and abortion rights driving increased engagement elsewhere are making less difference in New York, where Democrats have largely locked them into state law.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee with New Yorks Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney at the helm is focusing on claiming six districts in Central New York, the Hudson Valley, Staten Island and Long Island with a renewed emphasis on reproductive rights that played well in Ryans special election win and as he runs for a full term Nov. 8.

Strategists acknowledge that of the six, Democrats are least likely to find success against the two GOP incumbents Staten Islands Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and Long Islands Rep. Andrew Garbarino but theyre focusing on tying all of their opponents to former President Donald Trump and his supporters from the partys more extremist wings.

Republicans might not need to flip any New York districts that Biden carried in 2020 to reclaim the majority; in all, Republicans need to net only five seats to win the gavel. The party in New York has strong contenders to hold onto open GOP seats that include those being vacated by Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin, who is running for governor, and Central New Yorks Rep. John Katko, who announced in January he would not run for reelection.

If you think where this year started and oddly how its going to end: The Democrats had ever intention of taking us down to four seats, and here we are possibly fighting for 11 or 12, Langworthy said.

POLITICO Forecast Rating: Leans R

On the eastern end of Long Island, the race to succeed Zeldin is a complete toss-up on paper: Biden and Trump split the vote almost evenly. The race this year is also a bit of an oddity for a Long Island contest by historical standards it completely dodges any of the state Senate districts that are likely to be battlegrounds within it.

Zeldin, now the Republican gubernatorial nominee, will presumably help his party win at least some support at the top of the ballot in November.

LaLota is the chief of staff of the presiding officer of the Suffolk County Legislature and has served various roles in county government throughout the years. He won a three-way primary broadly based on the strength of each candidates ties to Trump.

He faces Fleming, a Suffolk County legislator, former prosecutor and Southampton Town councilwoman, who ran unopposed in the primary.

POLITICO Forecast Rating: Leans D

George Santos, Republican candidate for New York's 3rd Congressional District, poses for a portrait on Friday, June 12, 2020.|James Escher/Newsday via AP

The contest to succeed outgoing Democrat Rep. Tom Suozzi in a district that Democrats have held for decades and Joe Biden won by 10 points isnt usually ranked at the top of lists of New Yorks most competitive districts.

But the local election results in 2021 were as bad for Democrats as anywhere in the country. Republicans won every single office on the ballot in North Hempstead, which makes up a third of the congressional seats population and had previously been controlled by Democrats since the 1980s.

The DCCC added the district to its Red to Blue program just last week, providing Democratic National Committee member and longtime public affairs executive Zimmerman additional resources in the campaign against Republican investment banker Santos.

POLITICO Forecast Rating: Leans D

The seat being vacated by Democratic Rep. Kathleen Rice began to emerge as competitive to some local observers in just the past few months, thanks to Long Islands tempestuous political climate that is especially sensitive to local politics.

The November matchup pits former Hempstead supervisor Gillen, who became the first Democrat elected to the position in more than a century, against Hempstead Town Board member DEsposito, a volunteer firefighter and retired New York City police detective.

Gillen lost her supervisor reelection bid to a Republican in 2019, showing just how swiftly Hempsteads political winds can shift. She beat three other Democrats in the August primary. DEsposito ran unopposed in the primary and has had the partys support since March.

POLITICO Forecast Rating: Likely R

Nicole Malliotakis, a Republican from Staten Island, is running for re-election in a competitive district in New York City.|Drew Angerer/Getty Images

The seat containing Staten Island and a sliver of Brooklyn has been one of the states most back-and-forth in recent years, with Rose turning it blue with 53 percent of the vote in 2018 and Malliotakis winning it back for Republicans two years later, similarly with 53 percent of the vote.

The Democratic-drawn lines seemed poised to make it a lot less competitive, turning it from a district where Trump received 55 percent of the vote in 2020 to one where he received 45 percent. But the court-drawn maps left it largely the same as it had been for the past decade, creating a district where Trump received 46 percent.

The redesign has been widely assumed to leave Malliotakis as the frontrunner as the two face off in a rematch. But the tiny shift towards the Democratic column in the final maps means theres a path for a Rose victory, particularly if some of the Staten Islanders who were Trump fans dont participate in a midterm election.

POLITICO Forecast Rating: Leans D

Sean Patrick Maloney won a contentious Democratic primary and now faces a competitive general election race in the Hudson Valley.|Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/AP Photo

Maloney, the five-term House member, soundly defeated his liberal primary challenger, Alessandra Biaggi, in the Aug. 23 primary, with hearty fundraising and widespread support from establishment Democrats across the nation.

But he faces another challenge in his new Hudson Valley district against his GOP opponent, state Assemblyman Lawler, who is painting Maloney as a wealthy member of the Washington establishment and has tied him and his congressional colleagues to high inflation, crime and tax rates.

Some polling has suggested the two are neck-and-neck in the Hudson Valley district, and the GOPs Congressional Leadership Fund recently dropped $1 million on TV ads for Lawler.

POLITICO Forecast Rating: Leans D

After winning a special election for a Hudson Valley House seat last month, Democrat Pat Ryan is looking to win a battleground race in November.|Mary Altaffer/AP Photo

Eleven weeks after winning a special election to serve in Congress for the remainder of the year, Ryan will be back on the ballot in a seat thats a bit more Democratic-friendly.

The new district chops pieces of nine mostly rural counties from the one that was the site of the last months election and adds Orange County and Poughkeepsie. That turns it from a seat that Biden won by about 1 percentage point to one that he won by more than 8 points.

Ryans victory also means hell have the advantages of incumbency for the homestretch of his new election, as well as a massive amount of national exposure that would help his fundraising.

Schmitt, a sophomore member of the state Assembly, outperformed Trump by 6 points in his district in 2020.

POLITICO Forecast Rating: Toss Up

After losing a special election for Congress last month, Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, a Republican, is running in a close House race in November.|Hans Pennink/AP Photo

Molinaro wouldve been the undisputed frontrunner in this race if it happened a couple of weeks ago. In a district thats a toss-up on paper, he had far more experience campaigning and better name recognition than any of his potential opponents. But his loss to Ryan means he wont enter the race with the advantages of incumbency and the fact that he lost the summers highest-profile election will likely scare off at least some potential donors.

The district is changed a bit from the one he ran in a couple of weeks ago it notably sheds a piece of Molinaros home county of Dutchess, where he is county executive but its not dramatically different politically.

It loses most of the Democratic stronghold of Ulster County, but replaces it with the Democratic stronghold of Tompkins County, which includes the college town of Ithaca. Rural counties like Schoharie are no longer in the district, but they are replaced by rural counties that include Chemung along the Pennsylvania border. All those changes turned it from a seat where Biden received 51 percent of the vote to one where he received 52 percent.

Riley, an Ithaca attorney, handily won the Democratic primary to run against Molinaro.

POLITICO Forecast Rating: Toss up

The new 22nd District that includes much of Syracuse emerged as perhaps the most competitive in the state when the safe Democrats seat was redrawn after New Yorks maps were declared improperly gerrymandered. Now the seat is one that Biden won by just 8 points, an even tighter margin than the seat outgoing Rep. Katko held.

But Katko regularly won crossover votes as the most moderate member of an increasingly polarized Congress, and both parties say that will work to their advantage.

Software company founder Williams upset the GOP primary with a victory over the former prosecutor Steven Wells, who had the GOP party backing and financial advantage. Williams will face Conole, a commander in the Navy Reserves.

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Who will control the House? Look to New York. - POLITICO

OPINION:

Hey, did you hear the one about the MAGA Trump supporter who grabbed a knife and plunged it deep into the body of a journalist who had been investigating his scandalous business-related behaviors?

No. You didnt. Because that never happened.

What did happen though was just that only the suspected knife-wielder was a Democrat. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is why the mainstream media has been curiously hush-hush about the whole, otherwise utterly newsworthy, shocking and headline-grabbing, event.

If Robert Telles, 45, the guy police just arrested for allegedly stabbing to death Las Vegas Review-Journal reporter Jeff German, had been Republican, CNN tongues would still be wagging. MSNBC talking heads would still be talking. ABC-CBS-NBC pundits would still be pundit-ing. And if Telles had been a MAGA Republican with an active, Donald Trump-fawning Twitter feed and similarly adoring social media platform?

Chances are, many in America wouldnt even know the queen just died.

Joe Biden would be taking up all the airwaves time talking about fascists in the Republican Party, clear and present dangers on the MAGA types, conservative threats to this very republic.

Heres the story: Telles, until his recent arrest, served as a public administrator in Clark County, Nevada, and had been the subject of several critical news articles penned by local journalist Jeff German, 69.

Telles was upset about articles that were being written by German as an investigative journalist that exposed potential wrongdoing, and Telles has publicly expressed his issues with that reporting, said Las Vegas police Capt. Dori Koren, at a news conference reported in The Washington Post.

Then German turns up dead in the streets, the victim of numerous stab wounds.

Then a photo of the suspect surfaces, showing a subject whos the possible attacker wearing a straw hat.

Then police identify Telles as a person of interest and conduct of search of his home, discovering shoes and a straw hat the exact type of which the suspect in the photo wore.

Then police announced a positive match between Telles DNA and DNA recovered from the crime scene.

Then quietly, oh so quietly, the political leanings of Telles are released. Turns out, Telles had just lost a Democratic primary race for his seat and more than that, blamed Germans reporting, at least in part, for his loss.

As the Las Vegas Review-Journals German wrote in the lead-up to the election, on June 22, when Telles seemed on track to lose: Telles pending defeat follows a Review-Journal investigation last month that uncovered an office in turmoil and claims of bullying, retaliation and in inappropriate relationship between Telles and a staffer.

The investigation angered Telles, so much that heposted a letter of rebuttal on his campaign website entitled, aptly enough, Addressing the False Claims About Me, which included attacks on the newspapers reporting.

Then, as Tellessnarked just days after his primary loss on social media: Looking forward to lying smear piece #4 by @JGermanRJ.

It would seem natural for journalists of all walks, all political ideologies, all competing media organizations to band together in issuance of at least a statement of compassion, never mind a stern call for accountability. It would seem natural, too, for Democrats in office to do the same. After all, they did for U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi, killed and dismembered during his coverage at the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul.

Democrats demand Saudi accountability over Khashoggi killing, a headline at The Hill said in February, 2021.

They did so, too, after Wall Street Journal journalist Daniel Pearls Pakistan murder.

Just recently, wrote Rep. Adam Schiff, in May of 2009, Representative [Mike] Pence and I introduced the Daniel Pearl Freedom of the Press Act, H.R. 1861. This bill is aimed in honor of former Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl, who was kidnapped and murdered by terrorists in Pakistan just 4 months after the September 11 attacks.

Rep. Schiff.

The guy who loves to hate Donald Trump that guy, still found cause to support murdered Pearl.

Where is he now?

Where are all the left-leaning voices in media and politics now? Busily avoiding mention of the suspects political leanings, so as not to upset the Democrats chances for midterm wins; so as not to upset the Democrats non-stop narratives of MAGA Republican violence and hate and racism and misogyny and fascism.

Robert Telles arrest: ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC avoid mentioning suspect in journalists murder is a Democrat, Fox News wrote in a recent headline.

Thats called bias by omission.

Or, even blunter: Thats called carrying water for the Democrats.

This election season is tense and tight and for Democrats, a tough, tough sell, given the inflation numbers and costs of fuel and massive redistributions of taxpayer monies for ridiculous climate change concessions to the hard left concessions that will only lead to higher energy costs and food prices for all of America. And lets not even get started on the looming frights called 87,000 new IRS agents, some armed, all waiting to target the hard-working citizen.

That is to say: Democrats have been campaigning on a narrative that Republicans in general and MAGA types specifically are bad for America, dangerous for America, violent to America. Then along comes a Telles to mess up that whole message.

Networks referred to the disgraced Las Vegas Democrat as an elected official who lost a primary, Foxs second headline read.

Oh yay, oh yah, smell the election desperation.

Most Americans, including Republicans, including MAGA Republicans, look at the sad situation of a journalist being murdered by a politician he was reporting on and think: tragic.

Democrats and their water carriers in the press? They look at this sad plight of a politician murdering a journalist just doing his job and think: polls. How to twist the story so as not to pike the poll numbers. And thats just tragic in itself.

Cheryl Chumley can be reached atcchumley@washingtontimes.comor on Twitter, @ckchumley. Listen to her podcast Bold and Blunt byclicking HERE. And never miss her column; subscribe to her newsletter and podcast byclicking HERE. Her latest book, Lockdown: The Socialist Plan To Take Away Your Freedom, is available byclicking HEREorclicking HEREorCLICKING HERE.

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A Democrat allegedly murders a reporter and the media goes 'shhh' - Washington Times

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Charlie Hurt discussed with Greg Gutfeld and guests how Democrat-led cities seem to be abandoning the "hallmark" of civilization by allowing sewage to leak into San Fransico's bay area on "Gutfeld!"

GREG GUTFELD: LET THE LEFT LIVE IN FANTASY LAND

CHARLIE HURT: No, it's amazing. But you can't divorce it from the politics. Yeah. I mean, these cities are the resum of Democrats. Every one of them. They everything they touch turns to Calcutta. And, you know, the idea of clean, drinking water and a closed sewage system is like a hallmark of civilization. Yeah. And all of these Democrat-led cities, they are abandoning basic civilization. I do think it's kind of interesting. One little aspect of this is that at a time that a lot of people don't talk about this, but we also are having a war on fertilizer, in this country. And it's going to cause massive problems that we can only begin to imagine right now. And I mean, you have a problem with too much fertilizer winding up in the bay. Yes. And farmers literally cannot afford fertilizer to grow their crops in the rest of the country.

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Charlie Hurt: All these Democrat-led cities are abandoning basic civilization - Fox News

Things appear to be looking up for Democratic Senate candidates.

As recently as a few months ago, Republicans were widely viewed as the favorites to take control of the Senate after the crucial US midterm elections this November. Given the current 50-50 split, Republicans only need to flip one seat to regain the majority in the upper chamber.

But now, the nomination of several controversial Republican candidates and a recent string of Democratic legislative victories have many election forecasters reconsidering their predictions. Democrats appear better positioned to keep the Senate now than at any other point of this election cycle, although experts emphasize that the outlook could significantly shift again before November.

Democrats have the benefit of a favorable Senate map this year, as they are not defending any seats in states carried by Donald Trump in 2020.

Democrats prospects have also been aided by Republicans failure to recruit top candidates in several states, including incumbent governors Doug Ducey of Arizona and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire. Instead, vulnerable Republicans were able to secure nominations in a number of key battleground states, often with the help of Trumps endorsement.

In Georgia, the former professional football player Herschel Walker has attracted scandal for failing to acknowledge the existence of two secret children and abusing his ex-wife. Walker has acknowledged the abuse, saying he was suffering from mental illness at the time.

In Pennsylvania, celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz has alienated voters because of his past dubious health claims and his longtime residency in New Jersey before deciding to run for office.

In Ohio, author JD Vance has struggled to gain his footing, most recently being criticized because his now-shuttered non-profit dedicated to combating opioid addiction promoted the work of a doctor with ties to the pharmaceutical industry.

As Republican candidates have stumbled, Democrats have enjoyed a wave of wins on Capitol Hill.

Last week, Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, a sweeping spending package that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in investments aimed at reducing the countrys planet-heating emissions and lowering Americans healthcare costs.

The supreme courts decision to overturn Roe v Wade, ending the federal right to abortion access, appears to be driving voters to the polls as well. On Tuesday, Democrat Pat Ryan won a hotly contested special congressional race in New York after running a campaign focused on protecting abortion rights.

Republican Senate candidates have indicated that abortion rights could be a weakness for them in the November elections. Blake Masters, who is running against Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona, altered his campaign website this week to delete some language expressing support for severe abortion restrictions.

All of those developments seem to be resonating in several key Senate races. According to FiveThirtyEight, Democrats have pulled slightly ahead in Ohio and Georgia, while the partys candidates in Pennsylvania and Arizona have opened larger leads of eight to nine points.

Retirements, recruitment failures and vicious primaries coupled with Trumps endorsements have left Republicans with a roster of flawed and deeply damaged candidates, while Democrats are running strong, battle-tested incumbents and challengers who are backed by their own unique coalition of voters, Christie Roberts, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said in a memo late last month.

Even senior Republicans have acknowledged that the tide has turned against them in the battle for the Senate. The Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, said on Monday that the partys chances of regaining control of the chamber were 50-50.

Weve got a 50-50 Senate right now. Weve got a 50-50 nation, McConnell said at a business luncheon in Kentucky. And I think the outcome is likely to be very, very close either way.

Election forecasters have similarly picked up on this shift in momentum. FiveThirtyEights forecast model now says that Democrats are slightly favored to maintain control of the Senate, while the Cook Political Report updated its Senate prediction to toss-up last week.

I would have said, before primaries began in earnest at the start of May, that Republicans had at least a 60% shot of flipping Senate control, said Jessica Taylor, Cooks Senate and governors editor. We now see it as a pure toss-up, and I can see anywhere between Democrats picking up one seat to Republicans picking up three.

Democrats are not throwing away this new advantage, instead making a point to highlight their opponents weaknesses. One anti-Trump group aired an ad featuring Walkers ex-wife, Cindy Grossman, describing how he once held a gun to her head and threatened to kill her.

The Ohio Democratic party bought the abandoned website of Vances defunct non-profit, adding a greeting to the homepage reading, This site no longer exists because JD Vance is a fraud.

Democrat John Fetterman in Pennsylvania has gone to increasingly humorous lengths to troll his opponent. At one point, Fettermans campaign circulated a petition calling for Oz to be inducted into New Jerseys Hall of Fame. Fetterman has even gone so far as to enlist the help of celebrities like Nicole Snooki Polizzi, from the reality television show Jersey Shore, to film ads encouraging Oz to come home to New Jersey.

Senate Democratic candidates have also enjoyed somewhat of a cash advantage in recent months. The DSCC reported a $10m haul in July, marking the fourth month in a row that the group outraised its counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The NRSC recently cut its ad buys in three battleground states, sparking questions about potential financial difficulties, although the committee fiercely pushed back against that speculation.

Weve invested in building our grassroots fundraising program, which has paid dividends this cycle and will benefit the NRSC and the party as a whole for cycles to come, Chris Hartline, the NRSCs communications director, said on Monday. We work closely with every one of our campaigns and will continue to do so.

But even if Democrats do manage to keep control of the Senate, Republicans are still favored to take back the House, partly because of their success in redistricting. If Congress is divided after the midterms, Democrats will face severe hurdles in trying to advance their legislative agenda.

Under that scenario, I expect [House] Republicans to overreach week in and week out, passing one form of extreme legislation after another when theyre not trying to investigate the Biden administration. All of which is going to die a quick, painful death in the Senate, said Jim Manley, who served as a senior adviser to Harry Reid, the late Senate Democratic leader.

Although it may be difficult to pass bills, a Democratic Senate majority could still reap significant rewards for Biden, particularly when it comes to presidential nominations. If another supreme court seat opens up between now and 2024, a Democratic Senate would help Biden add another liberal justice to the bench.

While there might not be much of a chance for legislating because the House will be dominated by extremists, it doesnt mean nothing can get done, Manley said. Maybe theres going to be a chance or two to try and work on a bipartisan basis after some negotiation, but the Senate I think would spend most of their time under such a scenario confirming judicial nominees.

Although things are looking up for Democrats now, experts caution that November is still a political eternity away, and Republicans have historical trends working in their favor. The presidents party usually loses seats in midterm elections, and Bidens approval rating has now been underwater for roughly a year, which could be enough for Republicans to flip the Senate.

While things are better for Democrats, it could swing back. This could just be a blip on the radar. I would not be shocked if thats the case and we sort of returned to a midterm stasis, where the party out of power has the momentum, Taylor said. But even if Democrats can cut into that some, it could mean keeping the Senate.

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As Republicans stumble could Democrats really hold on to the Senate? - The Guardian US

Joe Biden has transformed his rough July into a jubilant August. Last month, the US president was drowning in negative headlines about his handling of numerous crises, from the war in Ukraine to record-high gas prices and the apparent demise of his signature legislative proposal.

Now, as the summer draws to a close, Biden is riding high, powered by the passage of Democrats climate and healthcare package and glimmers of hope for his partys prospects in the midterm elections. That optimism was on vivid display on Thursday, as Biden took the stage for a rally held by the Democratic National Committee in Rockville, Maryland.

Weve come a long way in 18 months. Covid no longer controls our lives. A record number of Americans are working, Biden told the cheering crowd. We never gave up. We never gave in. Were delivering for the American people now.

Bidens speech offered a preview of Democrats closing message to voters as they enter the final sprint leading up to the November elections. With the Inflation Reduction Act signed into law and Roe v Wade overturned by the conservative-led supreme court, Democrats believe they have a successful strategy to win re-election this fall, and they are prepared to defy previous predictions of a Republican shellacking.

At the top of the year, it was almost like Democrats were counted out, and most were preparing for the absolute worst, said Anthony Robinson, political director of the National Democratic Training Committee. I think that were in a completely, completely different headspace going into the midterms. Theres still a lot to do, but I think theres a definite shift in the tide.

This week saw fresh indicators that Democrats may be able to avoid the widespread losses usually suffered by the presidents party in the midterms. Democrat Pat Ryan narrowly won a special congressional election in upstate New York on Tuesday, giving him the chance to represent a bellwether district that flipped from supporting Donald Trump in 2016 to backing Biden in 2020. Democrats have similarly outperformed expectations in other recent special elections in Nebraska and Minnesota.

Ryan focused his campaign on the need to protect abortion rights in the wake of the Roe reversal, which ended the federal right to abortion access. Democrats say Ryans campaign could provide a playbook to other candidates looking to motivate voters to go to the polls in November.

I think that he found what resonated in his community and met people where they are, Robinson said. It wasnt about a bunch of figures and numbers. It was just about the raw emotion and that peoples lives are at stake. Thats something that I think is important to everyone.

The passage of Democrats spending package has also helped mitigate concerns that candidates would have little to campaign on, despite the partys control of the White House and Congress. The Inflation Reduction Act, which Biden signed into law last week, includes $369bn in funds to reduce Americas planet-heating emissions and several provisions aimed at lowering healthcare costs, particularly for Medicare recipients.

Democrats have their mojo after passing numerous policies that will tangibly impact peoples lives, and now the key is to really sell it with confidence before the midterms, said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee. Lowering prescription drug prices, lowering healthcare costs and making water and air healthier for peoples kids is a very good message to take to voters who wonder, does it matter if I vote Democrat or vote at all?

Biden continued the string of victories on Wednesday, as he signed an executive order to cancel at least $10,000 in student loan debt for millions of borrowers. The order fell far short of what progressives had demanded, but even Democrats who had pushed for more debt cancellation celebrated the news.

At the end of the day, Biden exceeded the expectations of most progressives on what he would do on student debt, Green said. If people want more, theyre certainly not going to get it with Republicans. But this is going to wipe out debt completely for about 20 million people and be a giant chunk out of their debt for many others.

Before Thursdays rally, Biden met Democratic donors for a $1m fundraiser, where he attacked Donald Trump and his Republican predecessors party loyalists and voter base.

Were seeing now either the beginning or the death knell of an extreme Maga agenda, he said, referring to Trumps Make America Great Again campaign slogan. Its not just Trump ... Its almost semi-fascism, Biden added.

As Biden has enjoyed this recent wave of wins, his approval rating has ticked up as well, although it remains underwater. A Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Tuesday found that 41% of Americans approve of Bidens job performance, marking the first reading above 40% since early June.

Earlier this month, Democrats overtook Republicans on the generic congressional ballot for the first time since last November, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Those developments have led some election forecasters to shift their predictions for the November elections. FiveThirtyEights forecast model suggests Democrats are now slightly favored to maintain control of the Senate, and the Cook Political Report downgraded its outlook for Republican gains in the House after Ryans victory in New York.

But Republicans are still favored to regain control of the House, reflecting the strong headwinds that Democrats face as they look toward November. Republicans secured several key victories in redistricting battles, giving them a more favorable House map. Considering Democrats extremely narrow majority in the House, redistricting alone may provide enough of an advantage for Republicans to recapture the lower chamber.

Americans anxiety over the economy presents additional challenges for Democrats. Inflation is higher than it has been in more than 40 years, squeezing families budgets amid concerns that the US has entered a recession. An NBC News poll taken this month found that 74% of voters believe the country is on the wrong track, marking the fifth month in a row that the reading was over 70%.

Republicans remain confident that the pessimistic national mood will convince voters to reject Democrats in November, and they predicted that the student debt cancelation would end up backfiring on Biden. Ronna McDaniel, chair of the Republican National Committee, attacked the policy as a bailout for the wealthy.

Bidens bailout unfairly punishes Americans who saved for college or made a different career choice, and voters see right through this short-sighted, poorly veiled vote-buy, McDaniel said on Wednesday.

Democrats acknowledge they still have their work cut out for them over the next three months, which is more than enough time for Republicans to address their sudden reversal in fortune. But as he addressed an exuberant crowd chanting four more years, Biden seemed more ready than ever to overcome historical trends and protect his partys majorities in Congress this fall.

We the people are the first words of our constitution, and we the people will still determine the destiny of America. If we the people stand together, we will prevail, Biden said on Thursday. We just have to keep the faith. We just have to persevere. We just have to vote.

Reuters contributed reporting

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Democrats have their mojo: has the tide shifted for Biden and his party? - The Guardian US

Throughout his campaign for the open U.S. Senate seat in Ohio, Democratic Representative Tim Ryan has billed himself as an old-school moderate who will stand up for working families, common-sense policies, and traditional American valuesOhio values. But his actual voting record over nearly 20 years in Congress tells a different story.

"Democrats aren't right about everything," Rep. Ryan said during an interview earlier this summer. He's right, of coursebut even a cursory examination of his policy positions leaves one wondering which issues he actually thinks Democrats are wrong about. In just the past two years, he's voted to federalize elections, admit the District of Columbia as the 51st state, impose onerous new background check requirements on gun owners, and grant mass amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants, in addition to co-sponsoring legislation that would restrict the right of states to legislate on abortion, and voting in favor of President Joe Biden's $3.5 trillion "Build Back Better" Act.

In fact, Ryan has voted with President Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi 100 percent of the time this Congressincluding on the $1.9 trillion inflation-causing "American Rescue Plan" that even liberal economist Larry Summers called the "least responsible" economic policy in 40 years. Unsurprisingly, and in recognition of his far-left voting record, Ryan has received the endorsement of progressives like "Squad" leader Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and held a virtual fundraiser with Hillary Clinton earlier this year.

In other words, Ryan is hardly the pragmatic moderate he likes to play when the cameras are on. In one ad, he claims he will "work with either party to cut costs and pass a middle-class tax cut." Yet just days ago, he voted with Democrats to pass a massive tax-and-spend packagethe misleadingly titled Inflation Reduction Actthat the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimates will result in an increased tax burden of $16.7 billion next year on Americans making less than $200,000. In another ad, Ryan voices support for law enforcement, but in the past has said he believes there is systemic racism in policing, and in 2017 voted against bipartisan legislation that would have authorized the death penalty for all convicted cop killers.

While he claims to care about bipartisanship, Ryan has also called for an end to the Senate filibuster rule, which would pave the way for unchecked one-party rule in Congress. Even on the most basic questions, the Ryan campaign seems terrified of upsetting the Democratic baserefusing to say that men cannot get pregnant and to offer a definition of the word "woman."

Rep. Ryan has also been quick to tout his support for policies championed by former president Donald Trumpnamely certain trade and tariff-related issuesas evidence of his willingness to work across the aisle. But throughout Trump's four years in office, Ryan only voted in line with the president's position 16 percent of the time.

The other 84 percent of the time, Ryan was voting against Trump and with his fellow Democrats. For example, while he's been careful to note his support for Trump's USMCA trade agreement, Ryan voted against the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, the legislation that set the stage for the historic economic gains seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. He also opposed Trump-backed bills that would have protected Second Amendment freedoms for veterans, allocated funding for the border wall, expedited the deportation of illegal alien gang members, and prohibited abortion after 20 weeks of pregnancy with exceptions for rape and incest (he now refuses to say whether he supports any restrictions on abortion).

Ohioans deserve a senator who will vote with their interests all of the time, not just on a few select issues that play well in campaign ads. When it comes to Tim Ryan, the record is clearhe's no moderate, and voters won't be fooled by his charade.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. He formerly served as a staffer in the White House and U.S. Senate, and is a graduate of Wittenberg University in Springfield, Ohio. You can follow him on Twitter @Shane_Harris_.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.

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Don't Fall for The Makeover. Tim Ryan is A Liberal Democrat | Opinion - Newsweek

Vega handed Spanberger a rare opening when she was caught on tape casting doubt on the idea that women can get pregnant from rape. The spot warns that Vega once said only God can decide the life of the mother.

Yesli Vega cheered the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, a narrator says in the ad, adding: Yesli Vega is too extreme for Virginia.

Spanberger was first elected in 2018 when she ousted Republican Rep. Dave Brat from his central Virginia seat. Redistricting left her in a seat that President Joe Biden would have carried by 6 points and she is considered one of the more endangered Democrats.

The initial buy, backed by nearly $560,000, will run from Friday to Sept. 5 on broadcast and cable in the Washington, D.C. and Charlottesville, Va. markets. The incumbent has a staggering $4.9 million in her war chest as of July. Vega had less than $250,000.

Spanberger joins a handful of vulnerable Democratic women who have aired TV ads on abortion rights since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and erased the constitutional right to an abortion. Reps. Kim Schrier (D-Wash.), Susie Lee (D-Nev.) and Cindy Axne (D-Iowa) have all messaged on the issue, as have a slew of candidates.

Lee went on air almost immediately after the Dobbs ruling with an abortion rights-focused buy. But it wasnt immediately clear how many Democrats would use paid advertising to stress their commitment to abortion access. Voters in Kansas declined to roll back abortion rights in a referendum earlier this month, in another powerful sign that moderates and independents did not agree with the ruling. Ryans triumph in New York only boosted that signal.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has painted it as an issue that can juice up Democratic base voters and persuade moderates, especially after the special election on Tuesday. Ryan leaned heavily into abortion rights and beat Republican Marc Molinaro by 2 points in a district that backed Biden narrowly in 2020.

We see this as a powerful issue in swing districts, not the only issue People still care a lot about the economy and inflation, said DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney. But the abortion issue has changed the equation. Theres no doubt about it. And were seeing the impact more every day.

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Endangered Democrat turns to abortion as opening argument on TV - POLITICO