Category Archives: Democrat

In this Feb. 8, 2020, file photo, Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, speaks during the McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner in Manchester, N.H. Mary Altaffer/AP hide caption

In this Feb. 8, 2020, file photo, Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, speaks during the McIntyre-Shaheen 100 Club Dinner in Manchester, N.H.

Former congresswoman and 2020 presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard has announced she is leaving the Democratic party.

"I can no longer remain in today's Democratic party," she said on an episode of her podcast. "It's now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers, driven by cowardly wokeness..."

Gabbard additionally accused the party of "stoking anti-white racism," being contemptuous toward religion and police and driving the country closer to nuclear war.

Gabbard was first elected to her native state of Hawaii's legislature in 2002 as a Democrat, at the age of 21. She has identified as a Democrat ever since, she said.

In 2012, Gabbard became the first Hindu and one of the first two female combat veterans elected to Congress. She began building a national profile during the 2016 election, when she resigned from her post as vice chairperson of the Democratic National Committee to endorse Sen. Bernie Sanders for president.

She announced her own presidential run on CNN in January 2019, saying, "There is one main issue that is central to the rest, and that is the issue of war and peace."

She dropped out of the race in March 2020 and endorsed President Biden.

Excerpt from:

Former presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard says she is leaving the Democratic Party - NPR

Oregon general election 2022

Oregon general election 2022

Wochit

As your governor, Ill only be loyal to you, Betsy Johnson promises in a recent ad. Im not captive to the far left or the far right.

Johnson, who served 20 years in the Oregon Legislature as a Democrat representing the coastal areas from Astoria to Neskowin and inland north of Portland, resigned from her Senate position last year to pursue a run for governor as an unaffiliated candidate.

Earlyon in her campaign, she was able to establish an unchallenged Goldilocks narrative, painting Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazanas too extreme, said Len Bergstein, a public affairs consultant who has been involved in Oregon politics for about a half-century.

Democrats have won every Oregon governors race since 1986. Johnsons unexpectedly strong bid has threatened that reign and made the race one of the most watched in the country. But not necessarily because she might win.

Johnson could play the role of spoiler, drawing Democratic votes away from Kotek and tipping the race to a Republican for the first time in decades.

You have to acknowledge this is not a normal race for governor, Bergstein said.

On your ballot:Read more about the candidates and measures on your November ballot

Johnson's independent stance is drawing particular voter interest as the state's two primary parties have become more polarized. And it stands out in a race where all three candidates have similar backgrounds.

Oregon hasnt had a serious independent governor candidate since the Great Depression, when Julius Meier, of the now defunct Meier & Frank department store, won with a majority of the vote.

And this is the first time in state history all the predominant gubernatorial candidates are women.

All have made their reputations in the Oregon Legislature, and none has a statewide constituency, Bergstein pointed out.

Other candidates include Donice Smith of the Constitution Party of Oregon and R. Leon Noble of the Libertarian Party of Oregon.

Its a unique list of candidates, Bergstein said.

Related:Abortion, guns, climate change: Oregon Governor candidates differ on issues

Johnson served in the Oregon House from 2001 to 2005, and in the state Senate from 2005 to 2021. She has emphasized her record of independence. Johnson bucked the Democrats to oppose a number of major climate and gun control bills.

Kotek was elected to the Oregon House in 2006, and served as speaker for a record nine years before entering the governors race. She is running on her record as a progressive. As speaker of the House, Kotek helped pass laws raising the minimum wage, establishing paid family leave, and transitioning the state to 100% clean electricity.

Drazan was elected to the House in 2018 and was the Republican leader from 2019-21. She has a long history in the building, working as a legislative staffer from 1995 to 2003, then moving into lobbying. As a relatively new lawmaker, Drazan led a Republican walkout in 2020 to block passage of a bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

You have three significant leaders in the Legislature, Bergstein said. Once you step outside, its kind of a hall of mirrors. Youre a huge figure inside the building. Youre shrunk down quite a bit once you step outside the Capitol grounds.

Early polls showed Johnson waging an improbably strong campaign.

But since then, as her positions have become clearer, she has alienated voters on both sides, Pacific University political science professor Jim Moore said.

Following the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting, Johnson defended her record on gun rights, including her ownership of a submachine gun, putting off some Democrats. After the U.S Supreme Court's Dobbs decision taking away the constitutional right to abortion, Johnson emphasized that shes always supported abortion rights, alienating some Republicans.

Recent polls show Kotek and Drazen neck and neck, with Johnson trailing far behind, raising the possibility that Johnsons candidacy could hand the office to Republicans for the first time since 1987.

Johnson also led early in fundraising, which included $3.75 million donated by Nike co-founder Phil Knight. More recently, Knight contributed $1 million to Drazan's campaign, as she edged ahead in the polls.

Johnson has now raised about $16.7 million and spent $15.4 million since January 2021, according to campaign finance records from the Oregon Secretary of State.

Kotek has raised about $15.3 million and spent about $14.2 million.

With Knight's donation, Drazan has raised about $14.9 million and spent about $11.6 million.

Its a crazy race. I dont know that anybodys necessarily got any insights on whats going to happen, Bergstein said.

One probable result of the three-way race is that any of the candidates could win with substantially less than 50% of the vote.

Rural vs. Urban: The candidates for governor share how they'd balance the needs

In Oregons general election, the winner must only get the most votes. Theoretically, that could be as low as 34%.

Theres going to be issues of whether or not that person truly represents Oregon, Moore said.

In the past, Moore said, when Republicans have won in Oregon, theyve won by a lot. When Democrats have won, theyve won by relatively small margins or even less than 50%.

The Legislature, Republicans in particular, have said youre not credible as a leader because you didnt get 50%, he said. In a true, three-way race like we have now, it doesnt look like any of them have a chance to get 50%.

Meier, the independent who took office in 1931, got more than half the vote.

He was able to go to Salem and say, 'The people are behind me,' Moore said. Betsy Johnson will not have that. She will not get more than 50% of the vote. She will be breaking new territory we have not seen in this state. Its an absolute unknown.

Wanted: 27 Oregon governors' portraits

Johnson says if she wins, shell force the two parties to work together.

Thats wonderful rhetoric, aspirational rhetoric, Bergstein said. But shes surrendering the ability to get an agenda through by saying unless everybody comes together, were not going to do anything.

Its also unclear how much a non-affiliated governor could accomplish without party backing.

Shes a very talented person. Shes demonstrated shes able to get some things done, Bergstein said. But when you are governor and youre trying to find votes, its a tough deal if you dont have any bedrock kind of support that comes to you by nature of your party.

Oregon leans Democratic as a state, with 1.01 million registered Democrats and 731,000 Republicans.

In the three-county Portland metro area, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one, or 534,000 to 219,000, according to October figures from the state Elections Division.

Counting minor party and non-affiliated voters, the metro area makes up about 42% of votes statewide.

So, is it possible for any of the candidates to win without winning the Portland area?

It's a math problem, Moore said. And looking back, I have not found anybody who did it in the 20th century.

Moore initially thought Gov. Vic Atiyeh, who led the state from 1979 to 1987 and was the most recent Republican to hold that position, might have won the state without winning Portland, but not so. When Atiyeh ran for reelection in 1982, he won in every single county, Moore said.

With three candidates in this years race, Moore expects Oregons most populous counties, Multnomah and Washington, to be a stronghold for Democrat Kotek. The nonaffiliated Johnson could have a chance at winning Washington County but probably not Multnomah,he said.

Republican Drazan will have to look other places for votes, Moore said.

In September, Moore calculated that there were fewer Republicans in Multnomah County (59,418) than there are registered Republicans (60,830) in the states 16 lowest-population counties.

So while a Republican could win a higher number of counties, these tend to be smaller and rural places that are outmatched by Portlands voting population when it comes to statewide races.

Christine Drazan can win all those 16 counties and be just happy as a clam, Moore said, And all she's done is she's basically doubled the number of Republicans who are in Portland.

Reporter Claire Withycombe contributed to this report.

Tracy Loew covers the environment at the Statesman Journal. Send comments, questions and tips to tloew@statesmanjournal.com, 503-399-6779. Follow her on Twitter at @Tracy_Loew

Originally posted here:

Oregon could elect a non-Democrat governor for the first time in 40 years - Statesman Journal

In a country changed by COVID, growing inflation, and culture wars, it should come as no surprise that a great alignment is taking place in politics, too. The Democrat party, long considered the party of the non-college-educated working middle class in America, has seen the GOP taking its place.

"The real rank and file Democrats on the ground, they're leaving their party in droves, because they said, this is unrecognizable. I never signed up for this. I didn't want record-high gas prices. I didn't want zero borders.I wanted a country I wanted, you know, a shot at the American dream. That's what I wanted. And they see that that's not what it's been about at all," said Liz Harrington, President Trump's spokesperson.

The slide has been dramatic. More than 60 years ago, JFK won the white voters without a degree by a two-to-one margin. In 2020, Joe Biden lost those same voters by a two-to-one margin, a total reversal.

The latest poll ahead of the midterms shows the same trend. The GOP holds an overwhelming 61-to-29 percent lead among the white working class. Even so-called middle-class champions like Bernie Sanders see the problem.

"The truth is that the middle class of this country is falling further and further behind. Wages are not keeping up with inflation," Sanders said.

Democrats are also starting to lose their grip on the reliable Hispanic vote. The latest NBC News/Telemundo poll shows that even though Hispanics still prefer Democrats 54 percent to 33 percent, that 21-point lead is lower than in the past. In election cycles over the last ten years, the lead has dwindled from a whopping 42 percent a decade ago to 26points in 2022.

Given the drop, analysts point to Democrats taking the Hispanic vote for granted, especially in these tough times. And pandering isn't helping.

Jessica Anderson is with Heritage Action for America.

"The Biden regime is completely out of touch and pandering to Hispanic voters instead of actually getting real about the issues that, just like you and I, everyone else in America that we actually care about. And so I think they're tired of being treated like a voting bloc, that it's a one size fits all rubber stamp for the Democratic Party. It is not that," Anderson said.

Cultural issues are also playing a role. Supporting abortion at any stage has turned off many pro-family Hispanic Catholic voters.

"You see the Democrats that are passing radical abortion laws in California and Colorado and New York that say that you can kill seven-pound babies right up to the point of birth. Youraverage, hard-working Hispanic, Catholic out there does not approve of that. YourAfrican American hard-working African Americans don't approve of that. That's a radical, extreme policy. And that's what the Democrat Party is pushing left and right," said Ted Harvey, a former Colorado state senator.

So while this political realignment is helping the GOP on one hand, it's also reshaping the Democrat party to a whiter, more elite party. An NBC News poll shows Democrats with a whopping 38-point lead among women with college degrees. That's up from 10 points in 2010. Polls show these more affluent Democrat voters care more about abortion, gun control, and climate change. It's a trend not lost on candidate Joe Biden when he chose clean energy over blue-collar jobs in a 2020 debate.

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Asked if, as president, he would be willing to sacrifice thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of blue-collar workers' jobs in the interest of transitioning to a greener economy, Biden replied, "The answer is yes."

Democratic strategists believe pursuing the Green New Deal and more progressive priorities will help the party with college-educated voters in key suburban battlegrounds. In this election cycle, however, where the economy is the most pressing issue, this political realignment could lead to a midterm derailment. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says the middle class is rising up and pushing back.

"I think those people have all now concluded that a little bit of noise and a little bit of tumult is probably worth it in exchange for a simpler, better life and life where you can afford the things you want to do for your family where you don't have the progressive left attacking you at every moment. I think they can see that. So I think they're going to begin to vote for the party that's going to deliver a better life for their families," Pompeo said.

We get the realigned answers in just a few short weeks.

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'The Great Realignment': Democrats Leave Party in Droves, and What It Could Mean for GOP in November - CBN.com

Can someone living on nearly $400,000 a year relate to the average American scraping to get by amid skyrocketing inflation? Ohio Democrat Greg Landsman seems to think so.

During a debate earlier this month, Landsman, who is running in Ohios first district against Republican Rep. Steve Chabot, said the rising prices of gas and groceries has "been very frustrating" for him and his wife. But Landsmans household income, according to finance documents reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon, totaled more than $380,000.

Landsmans remarks were reminiscent of Michigan Democrat Hillary Scholten, who released an ad last month alleging that rising consumer prices mean she can no longer afford new shoes for her children. Scholten earned $200,000 last year as an immigration attorney.

The average household income for the district Landsman is running in was $62,488 in 2020. That means Landmans household income is more than six times the average.

The bulk of Landsmans family income comes from his wife, who makes $275,000 as an executive at a retail data company. Landsman himself made over $100,000 from his Cincinnati City Council salary, his personal business, and a nonprofit.

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This Democrat Living On Nearly $400,000 Is Frustrated By Inflation - Washington Free Beacon

Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-TX) posted a new campaign ad featuring a photo of his House GOP opponent Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) that was apparently edited to make the Republican appear more aggressive.

The ad specifically focuses on school safety and gun control, targeting Flores on her first congressional vote opposing the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act just weeks after a mass shooting at a Texas elementary school in May. The 40-second ad features a photo originally posted to Floress Instagram earlier this year and appears to have edited her eyebrows to give her a more aggressive look.

TEXAS DEMOCRAT RUNNING AGAINST GOPS MAYRA FLORES SAYS SHE STOLE THAT LAST ELECTION

After the tragic shooting at Uvalde, Mayra Flores' first vote in Congress was AGAINST a bipartisan school safety bill, Gonzalez said in a tweet accompanying the video. We need a representative that works to protect our children and families; not someone who puts them in danger. Remember to vote for Vicente Gonzalez.

The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act made several changes to federal firearms laws by expanding background check requirements and establishing new criminal offenses while also seeking to fund programs that provide access to mental health services. The bill was passed by Congress and enacted into law in June.

Flores was the only representative from the Texas-Mexico border to vote against the bill.

Im willing to work with anyone on a single issue bill that will provide the proper resources to secure our schools and protect our children; both mentally and physically, she said in a tweet at the time. Our childrens mental health and safety should be a top priority.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The ad comes less than four weeks before Election Day, when Flores and Gonzalez are set to face off in November to represent Texass 34th Congressional District. Flores is seen as a rising star in the GOP after her special election win earlier this year to finish Rep. Filemon Velas (D-TX) term representing the 34th District.

By winning, Flores flipped a crucial House seat in the Republicans' favor and set the stage for a competitive midterm election that will help determine which party controls Congress over the next two years. Gonzalez, who currently represents Texass 15th Congressional District, has used her victory to try to motivate voter turnout, warning that the Republican Party was seeking to steal the blue district in the GOP stronghold of Texas.

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Texas Democrat uses edited photo of GOP opponent in campaign ad that makes her appear more aggressive - Washington Examiner

Unlike other Democratic candidates for governor this year, Kansas incumbent Laura Kelly isnt focusing on abortion in her campaign. Rather, its her Republican opponent, Attorney General Derek Schmidt, who is pressing the issue.

EVERT NELSON / THE TOPEKA CAPITAL JOURNAL / AP

Its a familiar pattern for this years midterm elections: One candidate for governor is trying to make the other one talk about abortion. But in most states, its the Democrat whos pushing abortion into the conversation. In Kansas, its the Republican.

Just two months after Kansas voters emphatically rejected a ballot initiative that would have removed abortion rights from the state constitution, Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, is mostly skirting the issue. At a recent debate, her Republican opponent, Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, needled Kelly about her support for abortion rights, saying that Kelly didnt support any limits on when abortion should be legal. Kelly responded with the equivalent of a shrug. I really for 18 years have had the same position on this issue, she said. So I really dont have much more to say.

Kellys silence on abortion shows that not all Democrats are convinced the issue can be deployed to their advantage, particularly in red-leaning states like Kansas. Instead, shes been focusing on the economy and education, and tying Schmidt to the unpopular former governor Sam Brownback. None of the ads run by Kellys campaign have even mentioned the word abortion. And so far, it doesnt look like a bad approach.

According to FiveThirtyEights Deluxe forecast, Kelly is slightly favored, with a 66-in-100 chance of winning the election in November, even though shes one of the most vulnerable incumbent governors this cycle. And while the polls we do have so far show a tight race, a September poll from Emerson College/The Hill found that 53 percent of likely voters in Kansas have a favorable view of Kelly, while 45 percent view Schmidt favorably.

There are a few reasons why it might be a smart strategy for a Democrat like Kelly to avoid a focus on abortion rights, even after the ballot initiatives resounding defeat in August. For one thing, while other Democratic governors, like Michigans Gretchen Whitmer, have built a brand around support for abortion rights, Kelly is different. Its not an issue shes ever really focused on, said Kelly Dittmar, a political scientist at Rutgers University-Camden and the director of the Center on American Women in Politics. Back in 2018, when Kelly was running against Republican Kris Kobach, she homed in on the same kitchen-table issues shes highlighting this time, similarly breaking with a larger national trend by refusing to engage with her opponents Trumpian rhetoric on immigration and voter fraud.

At the time, that decision to stray from the national trend seemed to be a canny assessment of Kansass state politics. In races at the state or local level, voters may be less influenced by national issues and their own partisan identity. This is partially how Kelly was able to defeat Kobach by a solid 5-percentage-point margin in 2018, even though Trump won the state by double-digit margins in 2016 and 2020. Over the past decade or so, Republican presidential candidates have consistently won Kansas by double digits, but in 2014 and 2018, the gubernatorial margins were narrower.

Two-party vote share and margin of victory in presidential and gubernatorial races in Kansas, 2010-2020

Margins may not match differences in vote shares due to rounding.

Source: Dave Leips Atlas of U.S. presidential elections

This year, Kelly appears to be betting once again that what works for Democrats nationally wont work for her in Kansas. After all, the fact that Kansans voted down an anti-abortion ballot amendment was never going to automatically translate into support for Democratic candidates. According to polling by Civiqs, Kansans are only slightly more likely to think abortion should be legal in all or most cases (49 percent) than to think it should be illegal in all or most cases (47 percent). And the anti-amendment campaigns advertising didnt focus on abortion rights in redder, more rural parts of the state instead, its ads portrayed the amendment as a government intrusion into Kansans freedom and bodily autonomy, similar to a mask mandate.

Because the Kansas amendment was the first opportunity for voters to weigh in on the issue in the wake of the Supreme Courts decision overturning abortion rights, the anti-amendment campaign also benefited from a lot of national attention and national money.

Over the course of 2022, the anti-amendment campaign pulled in more than $10.5 million in financial contributions, including some major out-of-state cash. According to a FiveThirtyEight analysis of campaign-finance filings from the two major groups on either side of the amendment, the vast majority (84 percent) of the anti-amendment donations of $50 or more came from donors with addresses outside Kansas, including one contribution of nearly $1.3 million from former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg and another contribution of nearly $1.5 million from Sixteen Thirty Fund, a left-leaning dark money group. By contrast, nearly $1.7 million came from donors with addresses inside Kansas.

Top five states* donating to the campaigns for and against Kansass ballot measure on amending the state constitution, by donation amount and share of total contributions

*Includes all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

A no vote would reject an amendment removing the right to abortion from the state constitution, preserving abortion rights. A yes vote would support the amendment removing the right to abortion.

Donations under $50, in-kind contributions and contributions from donors who did not provide an address are excluded.

Source: Kansas Secretary of State

The pro-amendment campaign, meanwhile, raised less money nearly $6.7 million in financial contributions, according to its last report but almost all of it (99 percent) came from donors with addresses in Kansas. That included some large donations, too, such as one contribution of nearly $1.3 million from the Archdiocese of Kansas City in Kansas and one contribution of $300,000 from the Catholic Diocese of Wichita, so its hard to say whether one side had more grassroots support in Kansas than the other. What is clear from this data, however, is that the anti-amendment campaigns large cash advantage was fueled mainly by out-of-state donors, not by a surge in financial support from within Kansas.

Theres other evidence, too, that abortion rights simply arent a big priority for Kansas voters in the upcoming midterm elections. According to that Emerson College poll, 48 percent of likely voters say the economy is the most important issue in the election, followed by a much smaller share (16 percent) who say abortion is the most important. The poll also found that only 72 percent of Kansans who voted no on the amendment (i.e., those in favor of preserving abortion rights in the state constitution) are planning to vote for Kelly, showing that support for a Democratic governor and opposition to the amendment arent linked for some voters.

So it makes some sense for Kelly to break with the nationwide trend and steer clear of the issue of abortion rights. Whether its a good idea for Schmidt to bring up the issue, however, is a different question. The Emerson College poll found that Kansas voters are actually more likely to say they align most with Kelly on abortion rights (48 percent) than with Schmidt (44 percent). Its possible, therefore, that Schmidt might benefit from taking a page out of Kellys playbook and focus on matters like the economy instead of attacking her on an issue that isnt a high priority for voters and that he doesnt have the advantage on.

Holly Fuong contributed research.

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Why Kansass Democratic Governor Isnt Talking About Abortion But Her GOP Opponent Is - FiveThirtyEight

PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES

Democrats may currently control the Senate, but many within the party believe 52 Democratic senators are necessary for a true governing majority. Thats because moderate Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema are reluctant to change the Senate rules and abolish or circumvent the filibuster, which requires a 60-vote supermajority to vote on most legislation.

However, suppose the party wins 52 seats this November and at least 50 senators vote to suspend the filibuster in the following Congress. The Senate could then pass stalled Democratic priorities like codifying abortion rights into federal law and expanding voting rights. As a result, thats where Democrats are setting the bar this election cycle: Even President Biden has publicly asked voters to give me two more Democratic senators.

But, while Democrats have a 66-in-100 chance of holding onto control of the Senate (according to the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight forecast), their odds of winning 52 seats are dicier. In the two most likely scenarios, the party would win either 50 or 51 seats (theres a 32-in-100 chance of that happening).

However, its not out of the question that the Democratic dream scenario will come true. According to our forecast, theres a 34-in-100 chance that Democrats will win 52 or more Senate seats this November. In other words, its roughly equally as likely that Republicans will win the Senate, that Democrats will win the Senate with 50 or 51 seats and that Democrats will win the Senate with at least 52 seats.

But, of course, just electing two more Democratic senators wouldnt be enough to enact the full Democratic agenda. Those two extra senators would have to actually support it. Luckily for the party, that would probably be the case. The most likely candidate to gain a Senate seat for the Democrats looks like Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who has a 71-in-100 chance of winning. And he has been outspoken about his desire to eliminate the filibuster so Democrats can get shit done such as protecting voting rights and passing stricter gun-control measures.

Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio are the next-likeliest Senate seats to flip from red to blue. In Wisconsin, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has a 30-in-100 chance of winning in November. In North Carolina, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley has a 29-in-100 chance of winning her race. And in Ohio, Rep. Tim Ryan has a 29-in-100 chance of winning the general election. All three have called for eliminating the filibuster. Barnes and Beasley have explicitly said they wanted to do so to advance voting-rights legislation, while Ryan and Beasley have specifically cited abortion rights.

But liberal Democrats have one more roadblock. Abolishing the filibuster to pass these bills in the Senate would be pointless if Democrats cant also get those bills through the House. And thats their real challenge. They have just a 29-in-100 chance of maintaining control of the lower chamber, a bit lower than their chances of winning at least 52 Senate seats.

And in our forecast, not every scenario in which Democrats hold the House is one in which they also win 52 or more Senate seats. Our Senate and House forecasts are powered by the same model, which means we can calculate the likelihood of Democrats ideal scenarios coming true in both chambers simultaneously. The result: There is a 22-in-100 chance that Democrats will win a majority of House seats and at least 52 Senate seats.

The presidents party almost always loses congressional seats in midterm elections. So its remarkable that they have a shot at ending 2022 in a better governing position than they are currently in. But its still not likely to happen; Republicans would have to underperform expectations significantly. The probability is roughly the same as flipping a coin twice and getting heads both times it wouldnt be shocking, but you shouldnt count on it either.

Aaron Bycoffe contributed research.

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Can Democrats Win 52 Senate Seats And Kill The Filibuster? - FiveThirtyEight

Ricky L. Jones| Opinion Contributor

In the opening of his 1903 classic Souls of Black Folk W.E.B. DuBois wrote, there is ever an unasked question of Black Americans How does it feel to be a problem? That is, how does it feel when the troubles of society are explored, and people conclude that you are the issue?

In DuBois time, while Black people were considered hinderances to American peace, happiness and prosperity collectively, Black men were always viewed as more noxious than Black women. That hasnt changed. In fact, Black men are the single most demonized group of people in America.

You disagree? Lets play word association.I say, Black man. What words or phrases pop into your mind? Be honest. Gangster, thug, criminal, convict, lazy, untrustworthy, dumb, dropout, hustler, cheater, absentee father? Youre not alone. The negative characterizations of Black men are so common that the few who are highlighted for doing positive things are usually regarded as freakish anomalies.

The latest in a long line of situations in which were the problem is an emerging narrative that Black men are largely to blame if Stacey Abrams loses her highly publicized rematch with Brian Kemp for the governorship of Georgia. The argument is that Abrams is struggling in polls partially because her support from Black men is sorely lacking.

More:Abortion, voting and COVID-19: Why we're eyeing these 10 governor's races in 2022 midterms

News outlets from The Hill to Bloomberg are releasing stories like, Democratic group steps in to boost Abrams among Black male voters and Stacey Abrams struggles with Black male voters in Georgia while wielding national clout. Its maddening.

The problem with these claims and the accompanying strange arguments that a sizeable percentage of Black men have lost their minds and are flocking to the Republican Party is that theyre inaccurate. As the summary of a powerful recent article by Michael Harriot succinctly puts it, Pundits have begun sounding the alarm about the Democratic Partys existential crisis with Black male voters thataccording to math, history and political sciencedoes not exist.

Thats right, Harriot hit the nail on the head - Stacey Abrams Black male voting problem is . . . a myth.

Lies and stereotypes of Black men permeate society but, admittedly, some conclusions about more sophisticated, informed, and politicized brothers are true. No, we arent supportive of people or candidates just because theyre Black. We learned from Clarence Thomas, Condoleezza Rice, Ward Conerly and many others.

No, we werent more impressed by Barack Obama just because he was married to Michelle. No, we werent sold on Kamala Harris just because she attended Howard and pledged AKA. We were actually worried about her political record where Black folk were concerned. And guess what, it wasnt good.

Yes, Black men are understandably growing increasingly leery of the Democrats. Were not fools. We know they only think about Black people during election cycles and then largely ignore our concerns and suffering . . . again and again and again. When they do pay attention, they usually center on Black women, not Black men.

More:NAACP: Attorney General Daniel Cameron must resign or be impeached over Breonna Taylor case

University of Maryland professor Jason Nichols recently correctly noted, Black women have been the most loyal and reliable voting bloc for the party, and they deserved that recognition. But the second most loyal Democratic voting blocBlack menhas not gotten the same kind of recognition, and the party's penchant for ignoring Black men is leading to a remarkable attrition in recent years.

Be clear, this attrition has not been a mass defection to the Republicans. A percentage of Black men have simply disconnected from electoral politics altogether because their interests have been disregarded.They are tired of being forced to vote AGAINST a terrible Republican rather than FOR a good Democrat. Theyre tired of Democrats basically saying, No, we dont give a damn about Black people in general, and even less about Black men. But were better than the Republicans. So, were not just your best choice; were your only choice. Submit and vote for who we tell you to vote for. We own you!

At the end of the day, despite baseless arguments to the contrary, there has been no mass defection of Black men to the Republican Party and most Black men in Georgia arent against Stacey Abrams. But here are some things that are real. Hispanic support of Republicans is growing exponentially. You ask them why. Democrats consistently contort themselves and court them, but the majority of white men and white women vote Republican. You ask them why.

To be sure, Black women are the Democrats most loyal constituency. Theres no debate there. But as Michael Harriot, Jason Nichols, and many others who actually study the historical, political and statistical facts know and note, we neer-do-well, misguided, troubled Black men are number two. Bottom line is this Black men arent the problem this time. So, dont blame us if Stacey Abrams or any other Democrat loses. Put that weight somewhere else. Were already carrying enough.

Dr. Ricky L. Jones is professor and chair of the Pan-African Studies department at the University of Louisville. His column appears bi-weekly in the Courier-Journal. Visit him at rickyljones.com.

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Ricky Jones: Black men are not the problem for Stacey Abrams and Democrats - Courier Journal

Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund, the gun safety group founded and primarily funded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is now priming pushback against the GOP on guns a strategy bolstered by a research project including interviews of nearly 18,000 likely voters across seven battleground states this summer in the wake of the Uvalde school massacre.

The project tested messages that explicitly linked anti-gun violence measures including background checks on gun sales and red flag laws with crime and public safety, including the safety of law enforcement officers. The results showed that putting that lens over gun safety issues boosted support for Democratic candidates, not only among the party base but among traditional swing voters the party needs to keep governorships and Senate and House seats this year.

Some Democrats are already deploying a similar strategy to defuse crime as a GOP attack on them, starting with President Joe Biden. Last month, Biden sought to wrest the moral high ground on crime from MAGA Republicans, arguing in one speech in Pennsylvania: Dont tell me you support law enforcement if you wont condemn what happened on [January] 6th, citing the insurrection on the Capitol. He condemned calls for defunding the FBI, after federal investigators searched former President Donald Trumps estate for classified documents.

Tying gun safety, crime and law enforcement together aims to reset that narrative that have traditionally put Democrats on the defense, said Charlie Kelly, a senior political adviser to Everytown. That was especially true in 2020, when slogans like defund the police, which were popular among activists on the left but not among voters in general, were wielded against Democrats in races around the country.

The fear tactics that they had success with in 2020, I dont think will work this time around, Kelly continued. We actually are the ones that are tough on these issues, and we need to be more vocal about it.

Maxwell Frost, a gun safety activist who won a contested Democratic House primary to represent a deep-blue chunk of central Florida, said its all about turning it on its head, calling out the hypocrisy.

We are not gun-grabbing liberals, Frost said. Yes, we want reform, but so do NRA members. Theres a disconnect between the public and the [Republican] rhetoric, and I am trying to call it out.

Some Democratic pollsters made it clear that their party should still want to focus other issues. Crime is an issue where Republicans are on offense almost everywhere, said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster.

But, he continued, if you are forced to engage on this issue, I do think showing strength, showing toughness, getting tough on illegal guns, is a way to talk about it effectively Youre trying to do enough on it for voters so you can move on to another issue, hopefully fighting to a draw on it and then moving on.

A Gallup poll this year found that 72 percent of Americans were dissatisfied with the nations policies to reduce crime, and 8 in 10 Americans said they worry about crime. And a recent NBC News poll showed that Republicans enjoy a 23-point advantage on the question of which party voters trusted more to handle crime.

Any time you mention crime or public safety, the advantage for Republicans is significant every time, said Robert Blizzard, a Republican pollster. If I were a Democrat, I dont think I would try to make the 2022 races about crime and public safety unless I absolutely had to.

Yet talking about crime may not be a choice for many Democratic candidates. In Pennsylvania, Republican Mehmet Oz, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Senate Leadership Fund, the partys flagship Senate super PAC, have all attacked Democrat John Fetterman over rising violent crime in five separate TV ads in recent weeks.

Fetterman pushed back with a TV ad of his own, saying that Dr. Oz wouldnt last two hours here in Braddock, cutting to images of Fettermans forearms, where he has the dates of murders inked into his skin from his time as mayor.

I ran for mayor to stop the violence, Fetterman says. I worked side-by-side with the police, showed up at the crime scene. We did whatever it took to fund our police and stop gun deaths.

In Georgia, a pro-Gov. Brian Kemp super PAC is out with a TV ad that says Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and left-wing politicians are demonizing the police, attacking her for calling to defund the police. Abrams, meanwhile, put out a response ad, featuring law enforcement officers who say that Kemp is flat-out lying.

In the legislature, she funded law enforcement all over the state and she worked with a Republican governor to make Georgia a national leader in criminal justice reform, the ad continues. Shell keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people.

Elizabeth Sena, a Democratic pollster, said that the Uvalde school shooting was one of several recent turning points in voters minds about guns, prompting Democrats to campaign more aggressively on the issue. But Sena noted that for candidates with limited campaign budgets, where you only have two or three ads running in a major media market, the economy is still going to be number one, followed by maybe one other issue they get to highlight in TV ads.

It gets harder to find where guns fit in unless you have an unlimited budget, she continued.

Thats where outside super PACs and nonprofits, with larger budgets and contributors who can give six- or seven-figure donations, might come in. For example, Majority Forward, the nonprofit aligned with Senate Democrats main super PAC, released an ad in Wisconsins key Senate race earlier this year on the issue.

Buffalo, Uvalde and even Milwaukee, the ads narrator says, cutting to local TV coverage, when 17 people were injured in Milwaukee last night. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), the ad continues, blocked common sense gun safety, like criminal background checks to keep guns away from the dangerous and mentally ill. Johnson even opposed funding for training and community policing to keep us safe.

Asked about Everytowns spending plans for the 2022 midterms, Kelly declined to get into specific figures but noted the group has been significant investors and participants before, I think youll see that again this cycle. So far, the group has spent about $2 million on 2022 midterm work. In 2020, Everytown pledged to spend about $60 million on its electoral program, including about $21 million in independent expenditures.

On this issue itself, we intend to be very muscular with our message approach, and I think in doing so, will help neutralize this, Kelly said.

In the memo describing the findings of its research project, Everytown tested messages that linked a candidate who opposes background checks on all gun sales and supports permitless carry with violent criminals can buy a gun with no questions asked. Compared to a control group, swing voters who saw that message moved 5 points toward Democratic candidates.

Another test, on keeping weapons out of the hands of domestic abusers, also saw a 4.7-point Democratic bump among swing voters over the control group.

This idea that law enforcement messaging can be weaponized against Republicans is not new, but its something wed shied away from for a long, long time. And Id be very interested to see how that works in real time, said Jason McGrath, a Democratic pollster.

I think you will see ads from law enforcement folks in states where theyre talking about Democrats support for them, McGrath continued, and itll be interesting to see if ads take the next step to include guns in that.

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How Democrats are trying to counter a wave of GOP attacks on crime - POLITICO

As Democrats voice growing confidence about their midterm election prospects, two trends suggest that the partys newfound sense of optimism may be misguided.

Taken together, unrelenting inflation and the potential for a 2020-like polling error that overestimates Democrats strength could indicate that the Democratic Party is in a more fragile position than most in the media are currently acknowledging or appreciating. Earlier in the year, a red-wave midterm election on par with1994, when Republicans gained 54 U.S. House seats and flipped control of both houses of Congress seemed almost inevitable.

But since mid-June, Democrats position has been strengthened by declining gas prices, the national backlash toRoe v. Wadebeing overturned and GOPcandidate-qualityissues in key Senate races. As things stand, Democrats are now favored to retain control of theSenateand are expected to just narrowly lose theHouse.

However, the release of the worse-than-expected August inflationreportthis week which showed that food, housing and healthcare costs continued to soar last month served as a pointed reminder that the economy still poses a significant threat to Democrats chances in November.

Reacting to Augusts inflation data and to the increasing possibility of a severe economic downturn in the U.S. stocks fellto their worst day since June 2020 last Tuesday.

Just as inflation is a palpable economic trend that directly impacts Americans daily lives, the stock market is a visible statistic that many use as a barometer for the health of the overall economy.

Thus, given the renewed national focus on rising prices and the sinking stock market, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which voters economic anxieties dont translate into a referendum on Democratic leadership in November.

Though, it does remain to be seen whether Republicans, whose midterm message has become increasingly erratic, will be able to use this latest economic news fully to their advantage.

The same day that the inflation report was released, GOP Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-S.C.) introduced anational abortion banbill. This ultimately could buoy Democrats efforts to shift voter focus away from their greatest vulnerability the economy and toward protecting abortion rights, an issue that has helped Democrats climb in the polls.

That being said, Democrats strength in polls may actually be overstated.

In acolumnfor the New York Timeslastweek, political analyst Nate Cohn cautioned that the same polling warning signs are flashing again, as Democratic Senate candidates are outpacing expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Joe Biden in 2020, most notably in Wisconsin.

His analysis finds that there is a consistent link between the strength of Democratic Senate candidates today and polling error in the 2020 presidential election. While Cohn is careful to note that we cannot immediately decipher why this is or if this will translate to a similar polling error in the 2022 election he does cite the problem of non-response bias since the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade as a potential cause.

Put another way, if poll respondents in key swing states like Wisconsin are meaningfully more liberal or Democratic than those who are not answering polls, this could suggest that Democrats current public polling lead in those states could be significantly overstated.

If the polls end up being just as wrong as they were in 2020, per Cohns analysis, Democrats will end up losing Senate races in Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio, which they are currently favored to win. Democrats would still likely win Pennsylvania and Arizona; however, control of the Senate would come down to two states: Nevada and Georgia.

To be sure, many pollsters including my firm are making strides to deal with the challenges associated with non-response bias to avoid overstating Democrats current support levels.

Even if the polling error this year is less than in 2020, it would still be a mistake for Democrats to grow complacent or worse, to be overconfident based on their apparent lead, especially given the recent pessimistic economic news.

In the final weeks of the campaign, Democrats need to make a concerted effort to demonstrate fiscal prudence and discipline as the rising cost of living continues to weigh on American families. The party needs to show voters how they have worked and will continue to work to lower costs for American families, secure Americas energy independence and avoid additional tax increases.

In addition to doubling down on efforts to rally their base around the issue of abortion rights, speaking to voters economic anxieties and frustrations especially in swing states is absolutely critical in order for Democrats to have a fighting chance at keeping control of the Senate and cutting their losses in the House.

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. His new book is The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.

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Why Democrats' midterm optimism could be misguided - The Hill