Category Archives: Covid-19

TheWest Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (DHHR) reports as of 10:00 a.m., on July 26,2020, there have been 259,669 total confirmatory laboratory results receivedfor COVID-19, with 5,887 total cases and 103 deaths.

In alignment with updated definitions fromthe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the dashboard includes probablecases which are individuals that have symptoms and either serologic (antibody)or epidemiologic (e.g., a link to a confirmed case) evidence of disease, but noconfirmatory test.

CASESPER COUNTY (Case confirmed by lab test/Probable case):Barbour (28/0), Berkeley (589/19), Boone (70/0), Braxton (8/0), Brooke(47/1), Cabell (272/9), Calhoun (5/0), Clay (17/0), Doddridge (2/0), Fayette(114/0), Gilmer (14/0), Grant (40/1), Greenbrier (81/0), Hampshire (56/0),Hancock (81/4), Hardy (50/1), Harrison (159/1), Jackson (153/0), Jefferson(275/5), Kanawha (671/12), Lewis (24/1), Lincoln (46/2), Logan (86/0), Marion(154/4), Marshall (97/1), Mason (41/0), McDowell (14/1), Mercer (84/0), Mineral(94/2), Mingo (91/2), Monongalia (801/16), Monroe (18/1), Morgan (24/1),Nicholas (22/1), Ohio (230/0), Pendleton (27/1), Pleasants (6/1), Pocahontas(39/1), Preston (97/22), Putnam (139/1), Raleigh (126/4), Randolph (201/4),Ritchie (3/0), Roane (14/0), Summers (4/0), Taylor (38/1), Tucker (8/0), Tyler(11/0), Upshur (33/2), Wayne (173/2), Webster (3/0), Wetzel (40/0), Wirt (6/0),Wood (212/10), Wyoming (15/0).

As case surveillance continues at thelocal health department level, it may reveal that those tested in a certaincounty may not be a resident of that county, or even the state as an individualin question may have crossed the state border to be tested.

Pleasenote that delays may be experienced with the reporting of information from thelocal health department to DHHR.

Please visit thedashboard at http://www.coronavirus.wv.gov for more detailed information.

The rest is here:

COVID-19 Daily Update 7-26-20 - 10 AM - West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources

Biotech company Moderna Inc. on Sunday announced up to $472 million in additional federal funding for development of a COVID-19 vaccine. This is in addition to $483 million Moderna has already received from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority. The Cambridge, Mass.-based company is believed to be the frontrunner in the race to market a vaccine to combat the coronavirus, which has killed nearly 650,000 people worldwide.

"Following discussions with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and consultations with Operation Warp Speed over the past several months, the company has decided to conduct a significantly larger Phase 3 clinical trial, leaving a gap in BARDA funding that will be closed by this contract modification," a press release on Sunday stated. "Under the terms of the revised contract, BARDA is expanding their support of the company's late stage clinical development of mRNA-1273, including the execution of a 30,000 participant Phase 3 study in the U.S."

Phase 3, a randomized, placebo-controlled trial is expected to include approximately 30,000 participants. The total value of the award is now approximately $955 million, according to the company.

"Encouraged by the Phase 1 data, we believe that our mRNA vaccine may aid in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic and preventing future outbreaks," Moderna CEO Stphane Bancel said in a statement.

Moderna shares have soared more than 270% this year.

"Working together with collaborators like NIH, the Company hopes to achieve a shared goal that the participants in the COVE study are representative of the communities at highest risk for COVID-19 and of our diverse society," according to the press release.

The Company remains on track to be able to deliver approximately 500 million doses per year, and possibly up to 1 billion doses per year.

Read more from the original source:

Moderna to receive another $472 million from US for COVID-19 vaccine efforts - ModernHealthcare.com

TheWest Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources (DHHR) reports as of 5:00 p.m., on July 24,2020, there have been 253,040 total confirmatory laboratory results receivedfor COVID-19, with 5,695 total cases and 103 deaths.

In alignment with updated definitions fromthe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the dashboard includes probablecases which are individuals that have symptoms and either serologic (antibody)or epidemiologic (e.g., a link to a confirmed case) evidence of disease, but noconfirmatory test.

CASESPER COUNTY (Case confirmed by lab test/Probable case):Barbour (28/0), Berkeley (585/19), Boone (69/0), Braxton (8/0), Brooke(42/1), Cabell (248/9), Calhoun (5/0), Clay (17/0), Fayette (111/0), Gilmer(14/0), Grant (37/1), Greenbrier (81/0), Hampshire (55/0), Hancock (80/4),Hardy (49/1), Harrison (152/1), Jackson (153/0), Jefferson (273/5), Kanawha (641/12),Lewis (24/1), Lincoln (36/2), Logan (66/0), Marion (148/4), Marshall (94/1),Mason (38/0), McDowell (13/1), Mercer (79/0), Mineral (87/2), Mingo (79/2),Monongalia (797/15), Monroe (17/1), Morgan (24/1), Nicholas (22/1), Ohio(217/0), Pendleton (27/1), Pleasants (6/1), Pocahontas (39/1), Preston (94/21),Putnam (132/1), Raleigh (119/4), Randolph (201/4), Ritchie (3/0), Roane (12/0),Summers (4/0), Taylor (37/1), Tucker (8/0), Tyler (11/0), Upshur (33/2), Wayne(173/2), Webster (3/0), Wetzel (41/0), Wirt (6/0), Wood (209/11), Wyoming(15/0).

As case surveillance continues at thelocal health department level, it may reveal that those tested in a certaincounty may not be a resident of that county, or even the state as an individualin question may have crossed the state border to be tested.Such is thecase of Greenbrier, Lincoln, Monroe and Upshur counties in this report.

Pleasenote that delays may be experienced with the reporting of information from thelocal health department to DHHR.

Please visit thedashboard at http://www.coronavirus.wv.gov for more detailed information.

Additional report:

To increase COVID-19 testing opportunities, the Governor's Office,the Herbert Henderson Office of Minority Affairs, WV Department of Health andHuman Resources, WV National Guard, local health departments, and communitypartners today provided free COVID-19 testing for residents in counties withhigh minority populations and evidence of COVID-19 transmission.

Todays testing resulted in 250 individuals tested in BrookeCounty. Please note these are considered preliminary numbers.

Testing will be held tomorrow in Brooke and Logan counties inthese locations.

Originally posted here:

COVID-19 Daily Update 7-24-20 - 5 PM - West Virginia Department of Health and Human Resources

Missouri health officials are urging residents to take "aggressive actions" following nearly a week in which daily COVID-19 cases have reached four figures.

On Sunday, the state had its sixth straight day of more than 1,000 new cases, with 1,218. A four-day streak of record-breaking numbers of new cases peaked at 1,652 on Friday.

There are 41,927 total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Missouri and 1,197 deaths, according to the state health department. The seven-day rolling average of positive tests is 8.8%.

Covid-19 testing site at the Walmart Supercenter in Joplin, Missouri, July 2, 2020.

"We're trending up," Dr. Randall Williams, director of the state's health department, said Wednesday at Missouri Gov. Mike Parson's coronavirus briefing. The 1,000-plus numbers likely represent community transmission, primarily among 20- and 30-year-olds, Williams said.

The average age of those contracting COVID-19 has been steadily declining, according to the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services. As of Sunday, the average age of a COVID-19 patient in the state is 43; the seven-day rolling average is 40.

Daily hospitalization data on the state's COVID-19 dashboard has not been updated since July 12, though Williams said those numbers are also "trending up." The lag in reporting is due to a change in how data is collected, after the White House switched data collection from the CDC to a private firm earlier this month. As a result, the Missouri Hospital Association said it has been left "in the dark" and unable to access state data.

Williams said he expects to have updated hospitalization figures this week.

Missouri started reopening its economy on May 4, with the governor allowing the state to fully reopen starting June 16. There is no statewide mask mandate, though several local jurisdictions, including St. Louis County and Kansas City, Missouri, have issued their own orders as COVID-19 cases have started to rise in recent weeks.

The Missouri Hospital Association is also among a coalition of eight state organizations urging residents to "mask up" amid the increase, pointing to recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to wear cloth face coverings in public to help limit the spread of COVID-19.

"Missouri's stay-at-home order helped reduce transmission of the virus. However, with many regions of the state opening, Missouri's transmission rates have been rising," the association said in a statement. "Missourians can protect themselves, their families and members of the community by wearing a mask when in public and when in contact with at-risk individuals."

In a grim letter to the public released Friday, several health officials in the Kansas City region, including two in Missouri, urged residents to take steps to limit the spread of the disease due to recent data that suggests they are "losing the battle with COVID-19," the letter said.

"We are extremely concerned that hospitalizations will continue to escalate in the coming weeks and months, and that the uncontrolled spread of COVID-19 will lead to increasing ventilator use and deaths," said the letter, which stressed mask-wearing indoors and when social distancing is not possible. "This is our best option right now for protecting our friends, families, neighbors and the economy."

One oft-cited example of the value of mask-wearing happened right in Missouri: After two symptomatic hairdressers potentially exposed 140 customers to COVID-19 in May, the county health department determined that no new cases were linked to the Springfield salon. Both hairstylists and all clients were wearing face coverings at the time, officials said.

The hardest-hit county in Missouri is its most populous one: St. Louis. As of Sunday, the county had about a quarter of the state's COVID-19 cases, with 10,995, based on state data. During the first two weeks of July, the average number of new COVID-19 cases more than doubled, according to a July 23 report from the St. Louis County Health Department. Hospitalizations increased by 73% during that period, it found. The overall testing positivity rate has been gradually climbing since mid-June, the report stated.

With a record numbers of new cases in recent days, county officials have warned they are considering reimposing restrictions. At a coronavirus briefing on Friday, St. Louis County Executive Sam Page said that the county would start "talking about restrictions" when daily hospital admissions hit 40. That number has been hovering around there in recent days. On Sunday, the St. Louis Metropolitan Pandemic Task Force reported daily new hospitalizations at 36, down from 40 on Thursday. The seven-day moving average of new hospitalizations was 40 on Sunday, continuing an upward trend in the county.

"We're in a difficult place right now, and we do need to be taking some aggressive actions as a community to turn the curve around," task force head Dr. Alex Garza said Friday at a coronavirus briefing. "We have a lot of transmission in our community. It is still being driven by our younger population."

Last week, the county announced that it would be pausing youth summer league competitions, such as games and scrimmages, due to rising cases among children ages 10-19.

"While the risk of transmission during competitive youth sports games is most likely low, all of the activities surrounding the games increase the likelihood of spreading the virus. This includes teams, coaches and parents gathering before, during and after games and practices, carpooling and other activities associated with participating in sports teams, especially if proper mitigation practices are not in place," the St. Louis County Department of Public Health, the St. Louis Sports Medicine COVID-19 Task Force and the city of St. Louis said in a joint statement released Thursday. The guidelines only apply to summer sports, officials said.

Garza stressed "decisive actions," such as mask-wearing, social distancing and not congregating in large groups, to help reduce the curve and keep hospital admissions down in the region.

In a confluence of COVID-19 concerns, one recent outbreak in the state has been tied to a large gathering of young people. The Jackson County Health Department said on Friday it had traced five cases of the virus to a July 10 high school party attended by anywhere from 100 to 200 students.

The department is recommending that all those who attended get tested for the virus. Under the county's current guidelines, gatherings are limited to 100 people.

Tune into ABC at 1 p.m. ET and ABC News Live at 4 p.m. ET every weekday for special coverage of the novel coronavirus with the full ABC News team, including the latest news, context and analysis.

Excerpt from:

Missouri health officials call for 'aggressive actions' as COVID-19 cases rise - ABC News

North Dakota's 1,025 active cases reported July 26 represent the first time the state has reached quadruple-digits in that figure. Last Sunday at this time, the state had 784 active cases. Before mid-July, the state's previous high point for active cases was 671 on May 21.

As of Sunday, Bismarck's Burleigh County leads the state with 249 active cases, marking a 42% increase from last Sunday's total of 175. Cass County, the state's most populous area, has 138 active cases, down 18% from a week ago. Grand Forks County added a dozen active cases over the past week. Statewide, active cases rose 29% in the past week.

The department reported 141 new virus cases in the state Sunday. Of those, 34 were in the Bismarck area of Burleigh County, 29 were in the Fargo area of Cass County and 21 were in Grand Forks County.

Benson County west of Devils Lake added 10 new cases while Mandan's Morton and Minot's Ward counties both reported eight new cases. Dickinson's Stark County recorded seven new infections. Barnes, Emmons, McKenzie, McLean, Mountrail, Pembina, Ramsey, Richland, Sioux, Steele, Stutsman, Wells and Williams counties each added five or fewer new cases.

The state reported 4,718 new tests Sunday. The Department of Health processed an average of 4,511 tests each day over the past week. Five new virus patients have been hospitalized, and 42 are currently hospitalized in the state.

For the third consecutive day, North Dakota deaths attributed to COVID-19 held at 99. Eighty-seven deaths list COVID-19 as the primary cause of death, while 12 others list the virus as a secondary cause.

North Dakota ranks ninth in the nation in per-capita testing, ahead of current hot-spot states Arizona, Florida and Texas, according to Johns Hopkins University's Coronavirus Resource Center. The state reports a 4.01% positivity rate among the 146,479 unique individuals tested. John Hopkins reports the state's positivity rate at 6.5%.

The state has recorded the eighth-fewest cases of COVID-19 and sixth-fewest deaths caused by the virus, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Nationwide, the CDC reports 4,099,310 cases of the virus and 145,013 deaths.

As a public service, weve opened this article to everyone regardless of subscription status. If this coverage is important to you, please consider supporting local journalism by clicking on the subscribe button in the upper righthand corner of the homepage.

Continued here:

North Dakota's active COVID-19 cases surpass 1000 for first time - Grand Forks Herald

Hurricane Hanna is the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. NASA/NRL hide caption

Hurricane Hanna is the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Updated at 5:15 a.m. ET Sunday

South Texas is braced for flooding after Hurricane Hanna began battering the state. The first hurricane of the season made landfall twice Saturday as a Category 1 storm.

The first landfall happened at around 5 p.m. about 15 miles north of Port Mansfield, which is about 130 miles south of Corpus Christi, according to the National Weather service. The second landfall took place nearby in eastern Kenedy County. The storm arrived with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.

Forecasters early Sunday downgraded Hanna to a tropical storm. But Chris Birchfield, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Brownsville, told The Associated Press that residents needed to remain alert. Hanna's winds weakened, but the storm's real threat remained heavy rainfall.

"We're not even close to over at this point," Birchfield added. "We're still expecting catastrophic flooding."

The storm is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Texas' southern coast with the potential for "life-threatening flash flooding," according to the National Weather Service.

The center warned of storm surges as high as 5 feet along Texas' southern coast and said the upper coasts of Texas and Louisiana could expect 3-5 inches of rain. Isolated tornadoes could also appear.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said earlier in the week that the Texas Division of Emergency Management was preparing teams to help communities affected by the storm. He urged residents in the region to avoid roads that flood and listen to local warnings.

On Saturday, prior to the storm making landfall, Abbott issued a disaster declaration and said he had requested an emergency declaration from President Trump and FEMA.

"As Hurricane Hanna approaches, the Lone Star State is taking swift action to support the communities in the path of the storm," Abbott said. "We are closely monitoring the situation and working with local officials to help ensure they have the resources they need to keep Texans safe. I urge Texans in the region to take all necessary precautions and follow the guidance of local officials. I ask our fellow Texans to keep these communities in their prayers as they brace for this storm."

The city of Corpus Christi in Nueces County, which is already dealing with a spike in confirmed coronavirus cases, was among the communities bracing on Saturday for Hanna's arrival. On Friday, Nueces County reported 175 new cases of the coronavirus and five deaths. Of the county's 129 COVID-19 deaths, 119 of them have come in July, according to the Corpus Christi Caller-Times.

Ahead of the storm's landfall, the city closed at least one drive-through testing site through Tuesday, according to The Texas Tribune.

As Hurricane Hanna approaches, Corpus Christi Mayor Joe McComb said he felt certain that the region is prepared to handle both the storm and the pandemic.

"Don't feel like since we've been fighting COVID for five months that we're out of energy or we're out of gas. We're not. We can do these two things together and we're going to win both of them. And so, we'll get through this," McComb told The Associated Press.

But McComb's comments also reflected the realities of the pandemic as he urged residents to take masks with them if they have to evacuate and stay with others.

"We don't want to expose anyone during this storm. ... Even when you're in the house, I recommend wearing a mask if you're in crowded conditions" McComb told The Texas Tribune.

To the south of Corpus Christi in Cameron County, Judge Eddie Trevio told the AP that if families are evacuated to shelters, there are plans in place to make sure they are socially distanced from one another.

As the storm continues to make its path in south Texas, two other storms are being watched closely. Hurricane Douglas is in the Pacific and is expected to either pass nearby or over the main Hawaiian islands sometime Sunday. The National Hurricane Center warned of a "triple threat of hazards," including heavy rainfall and flooding, damaging winds and dangerously high surf.

Farther to the east and south of the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Gonzalo was downgraded to a depression Saturday afternoon. The system brought gusty wind to the southern Windward Islands on Saturday morning. The National Hurricane Center also warned of heavy rainfall with the potential for "life-threatening flash flooding" in the area.

Earlier this year, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an above-average hurricane season with at least three to six major hurricanes in 2020.

Read the rest here:

Hurricane's Fallout Batters Texas As The Region Confronts A COVID-19 Spike - NPR

by: News Release & Posted By Staff | newsweb@everythinglubbock.com

(Nexstar Media Group/EverythingLubbock.com Staff)

LUBBOCK, Texas (NEWS RELEASE) The following is a news release from the City of Lubbock:

As of 4:00 p.m. on Sunday, July 26, 2020, the City of Lubbock confirmed 86 new cases of Coronavirus (COVID-19), and 27 recoveries. The total number of cases in Lubbock County is 5,100: 2,024 active, 3,008 listed as recovered and 68 deaths.

The City wants to remind citizens to follow Governor Greg Abbotts latest executive order which prohibits gatherings of 10 or more people, within the city limits, unless approval from the Mayor is received. That order can be found atwww.mylubbock.us/COVID19

To request approval from the Mayor for outdoor events with anticipated gatherings of 10 or more people, visitwww.mylubbock.us/lubbocksafewhere you will find an approval checklist. Completed checklists should be submitted tolubbocksafe@mylubbock.usa minimum of ten days prior to the event for approval.

(News release from the City of Lubbock)

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COVID-19: City of Lubbock reports 86 new cases, 27 additional recoveries Sunday - KLBK | KAMC | EverythingLubbock.com

BATON ROUGE There are still 20,000 freeCOVID-19tests available for anyone to take advantage of.

That's out of a total of 60,000 provided by the federal government.

Originally, the goal of the program was to use all the tests in twelve days. But when that didn't happen, Mayor Broome announced the sites willremainopen until supplies last.

We've been very lucky that we've been allowed to keep them open until we exhaust all 60,000 tests, said community testingcoordinator, Kim Hood. Sixty thousand tests over twelve days would have been a pretty big lift for a metropolitan area the size of Baton Rouge.

There are a handful of testing locations. The latest site opened up downtown at the Capitol Park Welcome Center.

We really intended it as a way for folks who live and work downtown be ableto accesstesting as part of their workday. So either on their way into work or on their way home or on their lunch break. Weve seen steady numbers go through there and it's been good, said Hood.

So far, just over 40,000COVID-19testshave been completed. Hood expects the kits to run out during the first week of August.

We just want to make the service available for as long as we can whether it's because someone is symptomatic and they need to come get a test with afive-dayturnaround, or because they are just concerned about theirCOVIDstatus and want to know. Some are getting ready to go back to school, so we're just very happy that we're able to make it available, said Hood.

The testing site locations include:

-HealingPlace Church (closed Sundays)-LSU(Alex Box Stadium)-SouthernUniversity (FGClark)-CortanaMall-LamarDixon Expo

- Capitol Park Welcome Center

The Mayor's office says though residents can simply show up at any of the above sites for a test, itis encouragedthat all who are able pre-register atwww.DoINeedaCovid19Test.com

At the testing sites, residentsshould bepreparedto give medicalpersonneltheir phone number and email address.

Go here to read the rest:

Twenty thousand COVID-19 tests still available in surge testing program - WBRZ

We are near the end of July, and COVID-19 still is spreading uncontrollably in the Houston area. The public is bombarded daily with a slew of metrics: new cases, positivity rates, hospitalizations, deaths.

What do they all mean? Local government reporters Zach Despart and Mike Morris review this public data every day. We asked them to help you understand how to make sense of it all, starting with the question on everyone's mind: How bad is the situation now?

Mike Morris: Well, its not great. Were still adding more cases than public health officials can keep up with, a fifth of all tests conducted for the virus across the region are coming back positive a rate seven times higher than most of May and many local hospitals are under tremendous strain, particularly in their intensive care units.

The good news is that overall COVID hospital admissions finally are falling, with the rate of ICU admissions roughly flat.

Zach Despart: The first thing to keep in mind is that in order to get the full picture, you have to look at several metrics together. And because there sometimes are lags in how the government reports data, resulting in single-day spikes, its best to look at seven-day trends.

Lets start with cases. To see the daily counts, try the city-county COVID dashboard or the related Texas Medical Center chart. Our colleagues also track local and statewide metrics here.

Right now, the seven-day daily average of new cases in Harris County is 1,500. Thats high. To put that in perspective, Houston and Harris County health department contact tracers can handle about 600 cases a day.

Another data point is the number of tests that come back positive, which in the TMC system is at about 18 percent. On June 1, that figure was 5 percent. The governors team set 10 percent as a warning benchmark, which we exceeded a month ago.

Positive tests are called a leading indicator, which researchers can use to project hospitalizations and deaths. But it is an imperfect one; a limited ability for testing means that health experts believe the number of infections may be as much as 10 times greater than the documented figure.

Other metrics are more reliable.

MM: Hospitalizations are the best indicator of the virus spread, in large part because those with mild or no symptoms may never get tested or seek care, and, thus, may never show up in the data.

To gauge how the hospitals are doing, we look at two data sets: One is from the Southeast Texas Regional Advisory Council, also known as SETRAC, which covers the 25-county region anchored by Houston. The other is from the Texas Medical Center, which pulls data from every facility in the region that is affiliated with seven large hospital systems headquartered in the huge medical complex south of downtown. The TMC figures come primarily from Harris, Fort Bend and Montgomery counties.

On the SETRAC dashboard, you can see hospital beds in all 25 counties, or select one at a time. In Harris, only about half of the operational general beds are full, but thats not a useful way to measure the strain caused by the virus. The most valuable resource and the most limited one in a pandemic, when a lot of patients are severely ill at once is space in intensive care units. And the data shows ICUs have been near capacity across the county for much of July.

We typically look at the TMC data on this capacity point; while the SETRAC data is interactive and shows a longer-term trend, the TMC data, while not perfect, more clearly spells out ICU capacity. (Here is the explanation of what the phases of surge capacity mean.) The institutions have had a few hiccups in conveying exactly how urgent their capacity challenges are, though.

ZD: Long story short, in late June the TMC executives warned ICU usage was increasing at an alarming rate. Then the CEOs walked back their statements. And then the ICU slides disappeared from the TMCs online deck just after the system hit 100 percent of base capacity for the first time during the pandemic. Understandably, this alarmed some people, and we wrote a story about it. TMC replaced the data a few days later, removed the scary red and orange colors from the charts, and added context.

Does this switcheroo mean the data is untrustworthy, as some have suggested? Of course not. But some of the revised slides are wonky and require some explanation. Here are two we find particularly helpful.

MM: This chart on ICU occupancy is a graphic designers nightmare (spiky green boxes!), but its important. The column on the left shows the raw count of ICU patients (COVID patients and total patients, marked by yellow lines) and which phase of operations the combined count requires. TMC ICUs have been in Phase 2 for most of July, adding staff and equipment to convert normal beds into intensive care beds.

Now, lets look at the ovals listing percentages to the right. For much of July, COVID patients have made up roughly half of all medical center ICU patients (the oval at the bottom left). Thats a significant burden the state and county warning benchmarks consider anything higher than 15 percent a red flag.

What about the lighter blue percentage ovals? Those figures try to convey the wiggle room provided by surge capacity. As of Friday, for instance, if all Phase 2 beds were added, the medical center ICUs would be 85 percent full, with 42 percent of all ICU beds filled with COVID patients.

Dr. Marc Boom, CEO of Houston Methodist, and Dr. Jim McDeavitt, dean of clinical affairs at Baylor College of Medicine, said they know the capacity slides can be hard to interpret.

What were all seeing is people on either extreme trying to use data to prove their more extreme views, whether its somebody looking at that and saying, Theres no problem, look at all these beds, or frankly people looking at, Oh my gosh weve gotten through Phase 1, the sky is falling, Boom said. Both of those are wrong.

If the dark blue of Phase 1 is your favorite restaurant on a Wednesday night, McDeavitt said, the sky blue of Phase 2 is that restaurant on Mothers Day.

When we get up into the light blue zone (Phase 3), thats when we start to deliver care in a way nobody really wants to, like putting two beds in one room or putting beds into places in a hospital where we wouldnt normally put beds, McDeavitt said.

And that gray box at the top? Armageddon, McDeavitt said. We have medical ships showing up in the port of Houston. That scenario, Boom agreed, would be like New York City in March. The gray box, he said, certainly is not meant to reassure people that theres some endless supply of beds.

One last thing to note here is that this ICU capacity data is aggregated from multiple facilities, and that not every hospital has the same ability to add surge beds. For example, Harris Countys public safety net hospitals have regularly reported ICU usage above 100 percent during the pandemic and continue to transfer patients to other facilities due to a lack of space.

A lot of people have focused on this projection slide, but its not a crystal ball. Its a simple calculation: If ICUs continue to be this full, how quickly will the TMC enter its two phases of surge capacity at the current rate of COVID ICU admissions?

Hospitals have some control over one part of that equation: The numbers of non-COVID patients in intensive care, many of whom are there to recover from procedures that can be delayed. We saw this play out this month: TMC ICUs were initially projected to enter Phase 3 (formerly dubbed unsustainable surge capacity) within two weeks, but that date always stayed 12 to 13 days away.

There are two reasons for this: The count of non-COVID patients fell 16 percent between July 2 and July 5 as procedures were postponed, and has not returned to its early-July levels. And that was followed by two weeks during which the 7-day average growth in COVID ICU cases slowed every day.

ZD: And heres a brief primer on the SETRAC data. We primarily look at three data points: COVID cases occupying general beds, those in ICU beds and total ICU usage.

This graph (click here and then click the "Hospital/COVID census" button) shows how many COVID patients are hospitalized in the 25-county region, split between general beds (blue) and the portion of those that are in the ICU (red). There are thousands of general beds available across the region, though that figure still is useful because it helps predict future ICU usage. Why? Because some of those people, unfortunately, get sicker and need intensive care.

The number of ICU patients is of particular concern, because those resources are more limited.

This chart (click here and then click the "ICU Bed Usage" button) shows the total ICU usage in the region (blue) and the share of those patients that are being treated for COVID (green). As you can see, weve been pretty close to using up all the base ICU capacity since early June. And remember, this is an average of dozens of hospitals; some are into their surge capacity while others are below it.

The second marker to watch here is the share of ICUs that are filled with COVID patients. Under the state benchmark, this figure should be no higher than 15 percent; for more than a month it has been above 40 percent. Why is this concerning? COVID patients need to be isolated from others and require more staff attention and supplies, such as PPE, than other ICU cases.

And some of these ICU patients die, bringing us to our last data point.

MM: Whats helpful to understand is that these metrics increase in succession. In June we saw an increase in cases after the state began to reopen. In late June and early July, hospitalizations surged. Mid-July, predictably, has brought an increase in deaths. Harris County has reported 596 fatalities to date, while the state has tallied 4,717. Most have come since June. (You can find these stats in the statewide data dashboard.)

The statewide death rate as a share of total cases, however, is quite low just 1.2 percent, well below the 7.7 percent rate in New York, which was battered by the virus in the spring.

Why is that? Three primary reasons: the Texans who made up the recent case surge often were younger and more capable of fighting off the disease, doctors have gotten better at treating it over the past six months, and many of the patients who are among the recent surge in cases are still fighting the disease it is inevitable that a portion of them will die. Some critics of Texass coronavirus restrictions including a brief stay-at-home order and current mask rules point to the low death rate as evidence those measures were unneeded.

Doctors stress its important to consider that the outcomes of a COVID infection arent binary; that is, life or death. McDeavitt said he is confident that once intensive studies are completed on the lasting damage the virus does to the body, researchers will find non-trivial percentages of patients with permanent lung damage, with cognitive impairments, and with heart attacks, strokes and other maladies caused by blood clots.

ZD: These data sets, while sometimes hard to read, are valuable for us and the public to understand the spread and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic here. Feel free to ask us questions via email or Twitter, and continue to follow the Chronicles coronavirus coverage.

zach.despart@chron.com

mike.morris@chron.com

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So, how bad is COVID-19 in Houston? A guide to reading the data - Houston Chronicle

So-called serology research looks for antibodies in the blood that fight the illness, and how many of us have them. Other research looks at how long these antibodies last. The latest results from these studies are said to show us two kinds of bad news -- that immunity after exposure to the illness is not such a sure thing, and that the number of us who have been exposed and fought off COVID-19 are fewer than hoped.

This pushes our goal of herd immunity farther into the distance, potentially even calling it into question altogether. But in measuring antibodies for COVID-19, might we have overlooked other blood markers that help fight off the sickness? Is it possible we are under-estimating both how long immunity lasts, and how close to herd immunity we really are?

Consider some recent observations.

COVID-19 cases may be surging across the state and the nation, but in former hotspots for the virus like Wuhan, China; New York; Spain; Sweden and the Lombardy region of Italy, case numbers and deaths have been declining steadily. Lombardy, once the source of a horrific COVID-19 outbreak, recently had two straight days with no deaths linked to the virus.

These declines have come about despite seroprevalence surveys that say just 5, 15 or 20% of the population has had the illness in those locales, and other data suggesting that antibodies fade quickly. For health officials, such big declines, with only small exposure to illness in the population, prove the power of lockdowns, social distancing, masking, handwashing and PPE.

Others have begun to argue something far more hopeful. That while masking, social distancing and handwashing and lockdowns are all powerful tools in reducing the spread of illness, they aren't enough to get the credit for so many hotspots having gone cold. Instead, they say, more of us may be immune than we realize.

"When we get exposed to an infection, two big types of immune responses occur," says Dr. Vincent Rajkumar, an oncologist at Mayo Clinic who conducts research on the type of blood cells that help us fight infection. "One is called antibody-mediated immunity. This is where you make specific proteins called antibodies to fight infections."

"The second type of response is called cell-mediated (or T-cell) immunity. Here you don't make antibodies, but you actually have specific cells that target the offending infection." Serologic studies measure antibodies, but do not measure cell-mediated immunity.

In addition, Rajkkumar says, serologic tests can miss antibodies that are present in lower concentration than the assay can detect, or we may have other antibodies directed at the virus than what a given serologic test is designed to identify.

"The virus has many proteins," he says, "and it is possible that a person is developing antibodies against other parts of the virus that we are not checking."

Some even wonder if recent immunizations in children are what's made them less susceptible to bad outcomes from COVID-19.

"Back in March when we were all thinking out loud," Rajkumar says, "one of the thoughts I had was, why were children relatively protected from being seriously ill with COVID-19? Was it because of the multiple childhood vaccines they receive leading to a more responsive immune system?"

Answering these questions in the lab is no small task.

"We would have to do T-cell assays in a well-defined population to find out how many people have only antibodies, how many have only T-cells responses, and how many have both," he explains. "Then we need adequate follow-up to determine what proportion get COVID-19 in the future. Those studies are hard to do."

Researchers do know some persons appear to have T-cells that are cross-reactive to SARS-Cov-2 from blood samples collected before the pandemic. A recent study from Sweden has shown there are close family contacts who have reactive T-cells after having been exposed to COVID-19 without developing antibodies.

"I think the big decline in new cases we see in many hotspots are partly explained by masks, partly explained by social distancing, and may partly be explained by a larger portion of the population already being exposed."

"All of these observations put together makes us wonder if a greater proportion of the population is not susceptible to COVID-19 than what current sero-prevalence studies suggest," Rajkumar says.

Rajkumar has been sharing these questions on Twitter, and they are the subject of lively interactions between some of the nation's top scientists.

So, if serology studies only show us part of the picture, how many of us are potentially immune to COVID-19?

"I think it's much higher," Rajkumar says. "I think it's at least double what sero-prevalence studies are reporting."

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What if more of us have fought off COVID-19 than we think? - Grand Forks Herald